Running head: STATISTICAL VARIABILITY

Critical Analysis of Statistical Variability and Implications of

Introducing Conceptual Experiences as Early as Grade 4
Mary Pat Vargas
California State University Monterey Bay

STATISTICAL VARIABILITY

Introduction
This critical review examines the premise that elementary students do not receive a
proper introduction to the mathematical concept of variation even though it is the
foundation of statistics and statistical investigations. Through a descriptive, longitudinal,
lesson study, Lyn English and Jane Watson suggest that there is a crucial requisite to
introduce the concept of statistics and evaluation of the resulting data as early as
elementary school. In their article A critical review of exploring variation in
measurement as a foundation for statistical thinking in the elementary school, featured
in the International Journal of STEM Education, the authors explicitly postulate an
objective regarding the necessity to provide a foundational experience with informal
inference before students are asked to use variability formally in middle and high
school. A cursory examination of curricula standards in three countries: Australia, New
Zealand, and the United States illuminates evidence that substantial presentation of the
concept of variation needs development as it is not specifically addressed in the
standards or presented in the curriculum. Additionally, several convincing references to
the inadequate focus on procedural ability to calculate statistics have served to warrant
an exploration of precursor lessons for developing informal inference. The purpose of
the study describes the well-defined evidence that when presented in an appropriate
context, fourth-grade students can grasp the complex term, variability, and apply their
understanding to collected facts.
Multiple documented educator observations concerning adult awareness of variation in
statistics provides the recognition of the importance of cultivating early understanding of
variability. Repeated drill and practice from earlier experiences may contribute to the

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lack of adult recognition of the importance of variability. The longitudinal study

encompassed three years of the authors developed lesson observations in fourth-grade
classrooms. Efforts to document research-based development of the lessons (ultimately
distributed for profit), could potentially disguise the objective of the study, therefore
suggesting a bias.

Research Procedures
The researchers selected four grade 4 classes and one 4/5 combination class for a
three-year quantitative, longitudinal study designed to provide students with the
opportunity to develop an understanding of variability. Based upon a collection of
substantial research from distinguished academics including: JM Watson, A. Bakker, R.
Lehrer and D. Ben-Zvi, the authors validated their presumption that year four is the
initial stage at which a learner can apply the concept of variability to collected
information. Moreover, the authors collaborated with individual teachers who agreed to
primary presentation of lessons that would introduce the concept of variability;
assessment of the students occurred from one to three months upon completion of the
lessons. The study appropriates data for the last year only, although the number of
students assessed was a representative target population, further analysis of
subsequent years would substantiate the authors claims.
Upon completion of an ill-described playground benchmark (description of this activity
could be more detailed), the authors collaborated with teachers to design three
sequential lessons described below:

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1.

An activity where all students measured the arm span of the same persons arm

(Measuring a Persons Arm Span) to develop an intuitive idea of variability. Students

were allowed to use different measuring objects to meet the goal. This activity seeks to
answer the first research question according to English and Watson (2015): What are
students levels of development in detecting, representing and explaining variation in
linear measurement values?
2.

Activities where all students measured and plotted the arm span of every student in

the class and recorded these numbers on the whiteboard. This activity seeks to answer
the second research question according to English and Watson: How do students
develop the ability to compare and explain differences between representations in the
two scenarios?
3.

The final activity is a discussion of the relationship between the two previous

activities of measuring. This last action seeks to answer the third research question
according to English and Watson: Do students demonstrate understanding of variation
and transfer of that knowledge through delayed assessment questions?
4.

Finally, a culminating assessment was administered.

The authors described the activities in detail and included substantial theoretical
information to support the lesson development. A review of the tools used by the
students (journals, drawings, written responses and Tinker Plots), sample work, and the
implications for meeting the objectives was well defined, allowing for research
duplication. The activities, required journaling, and formal assessment were appropriate
experiences to glean proper data regarding student capabilities concerning the concept
of variability. However, lesson reflections revealed that individual teachers used various

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inquiries during their discussions with their students and employed differing questioning
techniques. This inconsistency could account for discrepancies in student achievement,
and some may postulate that scripted lessons are preferred when appraising the
effectiveness of an instructional model. Although sound research serves to substantiate
the authors inferences, quantitative records obtained prior to lesson presentation
unequivocally providing evidence that the students did not have a clear understanding
of variability is absent. The absence of pre-assessments within the study offers a
measure of doubt. Furthermore, a benchmarking activity was not thoroughly
described; therefore its implications cannot be determined.

Research Results
Deriving statistical relevance from one year of data from a three-year study does not
appear appropriate or accurate, and while there is an appreciation for preliminary
analysis, the authors do not acknowledge the statistics in this manner. Empirical results
are presented formally in charts, informally as student samples and gleaned from
transcripts of teacher held class discussions, and additional evidence is sketched by
relaying various details regarding questions from the culminating formal assessment. A
review of the evaluation questions does appear to provide evidence that the designed
lessons are good examples for introducing variability into grade 4 curriculum and that
the activities initiate student metacognition in regards to variability.
Various measures were used to gauge the success of the development of intuitive ideas
of variability including written responses to lesson questions, class discussions and
solutions to the culminating assessment comprising 15 questions. While the overall

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statistical measures of the formal assessment are unremarkable: mean score of 16.7
out of 26, further evaluation influences the authors to conclude an evidence of
understanding does exist. Furthermore, comparisons between existing learning theories
are consistently associated with findings providing further proof of comprehension. A
critical review of student journals provided additional confirmation that learning
occurred; these statistical measures showed a slightly skewed bell curve. However,
summative testing was administered by individual teachers at varying times from one to
three months (one teacher did not administer the test) after the lessons, hence a
statistical variation resulted in the data that the authors ignored.

Discussion of Results
The authors retrospective analysis concludes that an early start in experiencing
motivating, hands-on activities requiring an evaluation of variability is paramount; this is
a reasonable explanation derived from their findings. The prescribed lessons provided
an experience with the concept of variability whereby slightly more than half of students
exhibited understanding (English & Watson, 2015). The implementation of three lessons
allowed for exploration of this concept; however, the lack of a pre-assessment to
establish a baseline provides an opening for query. Additional confusion results when
the objectives of the study are subjective; the authors express a need for establishing
an early understanding of variability; however, their research conveys measures for
achievement with lessons they designed. The compilation of statistical data indicating a
need would allow for an accurate establishment of a need. Also, consideration of a
follow-up analysis of those same grade 4 students to compare them to students who

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have not experienced the concept of variability in grade 4 would improve the authors
claims.
English and Watson acknowledge, The language of distribution may be very complex
for students to absorb in fourth grade alongside variation, slowly students should
develop the notion . . . The statistical data the authors imparted supported the
conclusion that elementary students benefit from mathematical experiences with
variability. Qualitative, outstanding, theoretical information contributes to the authors'
objective. Moreover, the significance of the American Guidelines for Assessment and
Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) delivers additional evidence of the critical
necessity for statistical awareness commencing in the early grades specifically the
developmental hierarchy, prerequisites for variation.

Conclusion
The authors have provided educators with verification that student exploration of
variability in the elementary school can function as the foundation for statistical
conceptualization regarding statistical measurements. Additionally their research could
provide the necessary impetus for researchers and politicians to initiate modifications in
the curriculum. The initial premise of the report, a need for curriculum that provides the
elementary student an experience with the concept of statistical variability, is diverted by
a comparative review of a unit on measurement. The customary research manages to
co-mingle with student samples, statistics, and anecdotes regarding the designed
classroom lessons. Stated but not supported by empirical evidence, is the presumption
that all grade 4 elementary students lack the ability to identify variability. However, there

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is no contradiction between the conclusions of the authors that an engaging, hands-on,
early focus on variability should be of utmost importance.

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References
English, L., & Watson, J. (2015). Exploring variation in measurement as a foundation for
statistical thinking in the elementary school. International Journal of STEM Education, 2(3).
Retrieved February 25, 2015, from http://www.stemeducationjournal.com/content/2/1/3
Franklin, C, Kader, G, Mewborn, D, Moreno, J, Peck, R, Perry, M, & Scheaffer, R. (2007).
Guidelines for assessment and instruction in statistics education (GAISE) report: A preK-12
curriculum framework. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association. Retrieved
February 28, 2015 from http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/gaiseprek-12_full.pdf