Weighing The Evidence For Psychic Experiences

Williams:PsiEvidenceOverview1
WhatAreYourOddsOn?WeighingtheCurrentBodyof
EvidenceforPsychicExperiences
BryanJ.Williams
PsychicalResearchFoundation
Abstract:Abrieflayorientedsurveyisgivenofwhatmightcurrentlybeconsideredthebestlines
of prooforiented evidence for reported psychic experiences such as telepathy, clairvoyance,
precognition, psychokinesis (mind over matter), and those relating to possible survival after
death(apparitionalexperiences,mediumship,neardeathexperiences,andreincarnation).Some
oftherelativeevidentialstrengthsandweaknessesofeacharediscussed,andsomecomments
aremadeoncertaintheoreticalobjectionstotheevidencethatareoftenmadebyskeptics.
Introduction
People have talked about having had seemingly psychic experiences throughout the course of
history, with some of the earliest known accounts reaching back to the ancient Greek and
Roman periods.1 One such account involved the Greek philosopher and mystic Sosipatra of
Ephesus,wholivedinthe4thcenturyB.C.E.Asthetalegoes,Sosipatrawas
...inthemidstofaddressingameetingofphilosophers[whenshe]abruptlyfellsilent,andthen
proceeded to describe an accident which was happening somewhere in the country (we must
assume at the same moment) to a relative and admirer of hers. What is this? My kinsman
Philometor riding in a carriage! The carriage has overturned in a rough place! His legs are in
danger!Oh,theservantshavegothimoutunharmed,exceptforcutsontheelbowsandhands
notdangerous ones.And now he isbeingcarried on a stretcher whilehe makesa lot of fuss.
Thatiswhatshesaid,anditwasso.AndsoeverybodyknewthatSosipatrawasomnipresentand,
asthephilosopherssayaboutthegods,awitnessofallthathappens.1,p.204
Accountsofpsychicexperiencescontinuedtobereportedwellintothemodernera,withmany
being carefully documented as the Spiritualism movement swept through Victorian society in
thelate19thcentury.2OneintriguingexamplefromthistimecomesfromaMrs.Bettany,who
remembersanexperiencefromherchildhood:
Ononeoccasion(Iamunabletofixthedate,butImusthavebeenabout10yearsold)Iwas
walkinginacountrylaneatA.,theplacewheremyparentsthenresided.Iwasreadinggeometry
as I walked along, a subject little likely to produce fancies or morbid phenomena of any kind,
when,inamoment,IsawabedroomknownastheWhiteRoominmyhome,anduponthefloor
lay my mother, to all appearance dead. The vision must have remained some minutes, during
which time my real surroundings appeared to pale anddie out; but as the vision faded, actual
surroundingscameback,atfirstdimly,thenclearly.
IcouldnotdoubtthatwhatIhadseenwasreal,so,insteadofgoinghome,Iwentatonceto
thehouseofourmedicalmanandfoundhimathome.Heatoncesetoutwithmeformyhome,
onthewayputtingquestionsIcouldnotanswer,asmymotherwastoallappearancewellwhenI
lefthome.
IledthedoctorstraighttotheWhiteRoom,wherewefoundmymotheractuallylyingasin
myvision.Thiswastrueeventominutedetails.Shehadbeenseizedsuddenlybyanattackofthe
heart,andwouldsoonhavebreathedherlastbutforthedoctorstimelyadvent...2,Vol.1,p.194
And many of the experiences described by people living in the present time havent changed
much as the years have gone by.3 An illustrative example comes from Linda, a Latino woman
livinginNewJersey:
I am a mother of three. Two boys and one girl. The two boys are the oldest and my girl the
youngest....Whenmyboyswereaboutelevenandsevenorperhapsabityounger,Ihadtaken
themtomymomshousefortheweekend.Iamdivorcedandhaveraisedmykidsonmyown
withthehelpofmyparents.Iusuallyservedamealtomykidsfirst,andtheycouldgotoplay
whiletheadultswerehavingdinner.ThisSundaywasnodifferent.MymomandIservedthekids
andmadesuretheyatetheirfood,andthentheywereouttoplaywhilewewerehavingdinner.
ThisisaLatinocustom....Aswewerehavingdinner,theboys,asusual,tooktheirbicyclesout
andwenttorideonthesidewalkthatrunsinfrontofmymomshouse.
Wewerehavinganicetimewhilewewereeatingandchattingandtalkingabouttrivialities.
AsIwastalkingtomydad,whowassittinginfrontofme,Isuddenlyfeltthisincrediblefeelingof
panic,andIstoppedtalkingtohim.Isatup,andscreamed,Somethinghappenedtothekids!I
ranout,andasIreachedthesidewalk,Icouldseemyoldestkidwalkinguphillwithmyyoungest
soninhisarms,withbloodalloverhim.Theyhadtiedaropetooneofthebikesandmyoldest
sonhadmadeasuddenturn,andthelittleonekeptongoing.Heflewallthewayupintheair
andlandedontopofalotofstonesanddebris.Healmostkilledhimself.Ihadtotakehimtothe
hospital.Therewasnowayformeorforanyoneelseinmyfamilytoknowwhatwasgoingon,I
justfeltit.Thesethingshappenedmostlywithmyyoungerson.4,pp.3334
Arepsychicexperiencesreallywhattheyappeartobe?Isitpossibletoperceiveotherpeople,
places,andeventsatadistance,ortoaffectobjectswiththemind?Canpeoplepossiblysurvive
beyondthemomentofdeath?Orcanallthesethingsbechalkeduptoordinarysensoryclues,
coincidence,misperception,deception,imagination,andwishfulthinking?
Certainly its prudent to be cautious. Human perception is not perfect (which is why
opticalillusionsworksowell),anditspossibletomimicsomeseeminglypsychicfeatsthrough
mentalism and trickery. So whats really the case? How likely is it that psychic (or psi)
experiences are genuine? If we sort of think about it as something akin to making a bet in a
casino game, what should we be laying our odds on that psi experiences are real, or that
theyrefake?Reachingamoredecisiveansweronthisissueisoneofthemotivationsunderlying
researchinthefieldofparapsychology.
Ofcourse,mostskepticswouldlikelyplacetheiroddsonpsibeingfake.Theyrenotin
thebusinessofmakinglongshotstheyreallaboutShowmetheevidence.Andthatsthe
purpose of this article to give a brief survey of what might be considered the best lines of
prooforiented evidence currently available in parapsychology, in terms of odds ratios that
mostofuscanprobablyrelateto(inlinewithourbettinganalogy).Assomestartingrealworld
examplesthatwemightuseforcomparison,theoddsofwinningthePowerballlotteryjackpot
in the U.S. are about 292 million to one5, while the odds of winning the Publishers Clearing
House sweepstakes and having the Prize Patrol show up at your front door with balloons,
champagne,andamilliondollarcheckareabout1.3billiontoone.6
To keep things concise, only a few selected lines of evidence for the known types of
psychic experiences will be summarized here, and some of the evidential strengths and
weaknessesforthemwillbediscussed.Interestedreaderswhomightliketolearnmoreabout
these and other lines of evidence should consult some of the latest books on parapsychology
thatareavailableforthegeneralreader(forasamplelist,seeReferences710).
Telepathy
Telepathy is probably the most commonly recognized form of extrasensory perception

(ESP), seemingly involving instances in which a person (the receiver) gains knowledge or
awareness of thoughts, emotions, or sensory impressions contained in the mind of another
person (the sender).11 Quite often it is conceptualized in terms of mind reading within
popularculture.
Early on, most parapsychologists studied telepathy through experiments in card

guessing,inwhichareceivertriedtoguessthesymbolsprintedonthefacesofESPcardsbeing
drawnandlookedatbyasenderoneatatimefromathoroughlyshuffleddeck.
Inmorerecentyears,anotherexperimentalmethodhasbeenusedfortestingtelepathy
which was initially developed and refined largely through the pioneering efforts of three
parapsychologists:CharlesHonorton,WilliamBraud,andAdrianParker.Toaidinthereception
of ESP, this method utilizes a mild sensory reduction technique known as ganzfeld (a German
wordmeaningtotalfield),andthusatelepathyexperimentofthistypeistypicallyreferredto
asaganzfeldexperiment.Toseehowitworks,letsgothroughtheexperimentastepatatime:
Westartoffwithasenderandareceiver.Eachofthemistakentoaseparate,isolated
roomthathasbeensoundproofedandshieldedagainstradiosignals(tobesurethattheycant
calleachotherusingtheircellphones).
Inoneroom,thereceiversitsdowninaneasychairandreclinesback.Onceheorsheis
comfortable,theganzfeldtechniqueisputintoplay:thereceiverseyesarecoveredoverwitha
pair of halved pingpong balls, and a red light is shined upon them. From the receivers
perspective,thiscreatesadimredvisualatmospherethatsomehavedescribedasbeinglikea
cloudyfog.12Then,apairofheadphonesisplacedoverthereceiversears,throughwhichsoft
staticnoise(similartothekindheardbetweenradiostations)isheard.Coveringthereceivers
eyesandearsinthiswaygreatlyreducestheordinarysensesofvisionandhearing,andbydoing
so,itsthoughtthatpsychicimpressions(whicharepresumedtobeextrasensoryandsosubtle
that theyre often drowned out by signals coming in from the ordinary senses) may have a
betterchanceofseepingintothereceiversawareness.
Meanwhile,intheotherroom,thesendertakesaseatinfrontofamonitorscreenand
relaxes.Afewminuteslater,acomputerinaseparateroomrandomlyselectsavideoclip(such
asavisuallydetailedscenefromamovie)fromalargebankofsimilarclipsandprojectsittothe
monitorscreeninthesendersroom.Thesenderthenwatchesthisclipseveraltimesinarow,
concentratingonitsdetails.
Asthesenderdoesthis,thereceiverintheotherroomcontinuallydescribesanyimages
or sensory impressions that are coming to mind while he or she is experiencing the dim red
visual atmosphere of the ganzfeld state. Presumably, if the telepathy hypothesis holds, the
imagesorsensoryimpressionsexperiencedbythereceivershouldcorrespondinsomewayto
thevideoclipbeingwatchedbythesender.
Afteraboutfifteenminutes,thereceiveristakenoutoftheganzfeldstateandshowna
collectionoffourvideoclips,oneofwhichistheclipthatthesenderwaswatchingintheother
room. The receiver watches each one carefully and rates them according to how closely they
correspondtotheimagesandimpressionsthatheorshehadexperiencedintheganzfeld.Once
thereceiversratingsareofficiallyrecorded,theactualclipthatthesenderwatchedisrevealed
tothereceiverasfeedback.Ifthereceiverratedtheactualclipashavingthehighestdegreeof
correspondence with his/her images and impressions, then the experiment is considered a
success(orahit).Withtheprobabilityofahitbeing1in4,theaveragehitrateexpectedover
timebychancealoneis25%.
One of the most successful series of ganzfeld experiments was conducted by Charles
Honorton and his colleagues at the Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) in New Jersey
from1983to1989.Whencombined,thePRLseriesresultedinahitrateof32%(z=2.89,p=
.002),withanoddsratioofabout500to1againstchance.13
After these results were published in the prominent mainstream journal Psychological
Bulletinin1994,manyotherparapsychologistssetouttoreplicatethembyconductingganzfeld
experimentsoftheirown.From1997to2008,atotalof30ganzfeldexperimentswerereported,
with a combined hit rate of 32.2% (z = 6.44, p < .001), and odds greater than 1,000 to one.14
Moreover,ifweexaminealloftheganzfeldstudiesthatwereconductedfrom1987to2012(66
inall),intermsofacumulativelycombinedhitrate(Figure1),weseethattheoverallhitrate
averagesoutovertimeataround30%,significantlyabovetheexpectedchancehitrateof25%.
Theassociatedoddsratioisaboutatrilliontooneagainstchance(z=7.709,p=6.331015).
Thisseemstoclearlyruleoutchancecoincidenceasanexplainingfactor.
66 Ganzfeld Telepathy Experiments (1987 - 2012): Cumulative Hit Rate

60
55
Cumulative Hit Rate (%)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
Study
Figure 1. Cumulativelycombined hit rate (and associated 95% confidence intervals) across 66 individual
ganzfeld telepathy experiments conducted from 1987 to 2012. The thick red horizontal line at 25% indicates the
averagehitrateexpectedbychancealone.(UpdatedfromresultsinitiallyreportedinRef.15.)
Its also important to recognize that these 66 studies wereall conducted following a stringent
setofproceduralguidelinesandrecommendationsforconductingganzfeldresearchthatwere
proposedbyHonortonandpsychologistRayHyman(aknownpsiskeptic)in1986.16Thislessens
theargumentthattheresultscouldbeduetosimpleflawsintheexperimentalprocedure.
In spite of these significant results, some skeptics like psychologist James Alcock have
arguedthat...parapsychologistshaveneverbeenabletoproduceasuccessfulexperimentthat
neutral scientists, with the appropriate skill, knowledge and equipment can replicate.17,p.35 It
turnsoutthatthisisntnecessarilythecasewiththeganzfeldexperiment.AsDeanRadininitially
pointed out8,p.191, an attempt actually was made by neutral scientists at the Universities of
GeorgiaandNotreDamein2005.Intheirefforttorecheckcertainfindingsinthepsychological
literaturethattheysuspectedwerequestionable(includingfindingsrelatingtotelepathy),these
neutral scientists repeated the ganzfeld experiment a total of eight times and wound up
obtaining a significant overall hit rate of 32%, which is consistent with the average overall hit
rateof30%obtainedbyparapsychologists.18Sothisindicatesthatitispossibleforotherneutral
scientists to repeat the ganzfeld experiment and obtain similar results (provided that theyre
willingtotryit).
As psychologist and skeptic Richard Wiseman has pointed out19, a potential weakness
with the experimental findings on telepathy using the ganzfeld technique is that it can be
difficulttoavoidsubjectivebiaswhenretrospectivelycombiningandanalyzingtheresultsacross
studies.Iftheanalystknowsthewaytheexperimentalresultscameout,itcanberathereasyto
justpickandchoosethestudies(aswellasthedetailsoftheanalysis)towheretheyfavora
certainpreferredconclusion.Thiswouldapplynotonlytopsiproponents,butalsotoskeptics,
aswell.
Thisdoesntnullifythecombinedresultssofar(astheyincludeexperimentaloutcomes
that were both successful and at chance), but it might give pause to those who worry about
onesbeliefspossiblyinfluencingtheoutcomeofagivenanalysis.Thewayaroundthisissueisto
proposeacombinedanalysisinadvancewhichcoversacertainprespecifiedrangeoftime,and
thenincludeandanalyzealltheexperimentsthathavebeenreportedwhenthetimeperiodis
finally up (regardless of their outcomes). Fortunately, efforts to begin preregistering psi
experiments and analyses in this manner have been made by researchers Caroline Watt and
James Kennedy, via an online experimental registry set up on the website for the Koestler
ParapsychologyUnitattheUniversityofEdinburghintheUK.20
Clairvoyance(RemoteViewing)
ClairvoyanceistheformofESPinwhichapersonseemstoperceiveorotherwisegain
awarenessaboutcertainobjects,places,oreventsintheabsenceofatelepathicsender.Inthat
way,itseemstorepresentaformofdistantsensing.
Likewithtelepathy,mostparapsychologistsstudiedclairvoyanceearlyonusingESPcard
guessingexperiments,inwhichapersonattemptedtoguessthesequenceofsymbolsinasealed
pack of cards, which was sometimes hidden in another room. Then in the early 1970s, an
experimental program was initiated at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) by two physicists,
Harold Puthoff and Russell Targ, which introduced a way of studying clairvoyance that came
closertothewayitseemstomanifestinreallifesituations.21Inparticular,theprogramfocused
on developing a technique through which people could perceive distant objects and locations,
usually by simply closing their eyes and observing the images that freely come to mind when
theyfocustheirthoughtstowardtheobjectorlocationinquestion.Thistechniqueisnowwidely
knownasremoteviewing.Laterinthe1980sandearly1990s,thetechniquewasfurtherrefined
and some its physical correlates were studied in a second program carried out at Science
Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in California by physicist Edwin May and his
colleagues.22Anintriguingaspecttothesetwoprogramsisthat,unbeknownsttomostpeople
until 1995, both of them were overseen and funded by several military intelligence agencies
withintheUnitedStatesgovernment.Becauseoftheircovertaffiliationwiththeseagencies,the
twoprogramswerereferredtowithintheseagenciesbythecodenameSTARGATE.23
As part of the agencies interest in seeing whether or not remote viewing had any
potential applications in the gathering of intelligence, one later phase of STAR GATE involved
attempts by remote viewers to perceive a geographical location in a very distant part of the
world,wherefewpeople(ifany)wereassumedtobeatthetimeoftheattempt.Becausethe
viewerswereonlygiventhemapcoordinatesforthelocationandaskedtodescribewhatwas
there, this phase became known as scanate (short for scanning by coordinate). In one
scanate session, the coordinates given were associated with a secret installation in Russia.
RussellTarglaterdescribedthissession,whichwasconductedin1974withPatPrice,aretired
CaliforniapolicecommissionerwhowasavolunteerviewerintheSRIprogram:
Our contract monitor, a physicist from the CIA, had brought us coordinates from what he
described as a Soviet site of great interest to the analysts. They wanted any information we
couldgivethem,andtheywereeagertofindoutifwecoulddescribeatargettenthousandmiles
away,withonlycoordinatestoworkfrom.
Armedwithaslipofpaperbearingthecoordinates,PriceandIclimbedtothesecondfloorof
SRIsRadioPhysicsbuildingandlockedourselvesintoasmallelectricallyshieldedroomwhichwe
had been using for our experiments. ...As always, I began our little ritual of starting the tape
recorder,givingthetimeanddate,anddescribingwhowewereandwhatweweredoing.Ithen
readthecoordinates.
Again,aswasPatscustom,hepolishedhisspectacles,leanedbackinhischair,andclosedhis
eyes.Hewassilentforaboutaminute,andthenstartedtolaugh.HesaidThisremindsmeof
theoldjokethatstartswithaguyinhispenthouselookingupatthe3rdAvenueEl.Patthen
beganhisdescription:Iamlyingonmybackontheroofofatwoorthreestorybrickbuilding.
Itsasunnyday.Thesunfeelsgood.Theresthemostamazingthing.Theresagiantgantrycrane
movingbackandforthovermyhead....AsIdriftupintheairandlookdown,itseemstoberiding
onatrackwithonerailoneachsideofthebuilding.Iveneverseenanythinglikethat.24,pp.8182
Pricesketchedanimageofthecranehesaw.Lateron,whensatelliteimagesweretakenofthe
Sovietsite,agiantcranewasindeedseenintheimagesthatcloselyresembledPricessketch.It
waslaterrevealedthatthesitewasaSovietnuclearfacilitywhereatomicweaponstestswere
beingcarriedoutduringtheColdWaryears.
In 1995, a thorough review and evaluation of the remote viewing programs at SRI and
SAICwasorderedbytheUnitedStatesCongressandtheCentralIntelligenceAgency.Oneofthe
peoplecontractedtoreviewandevaluatetheprogramswasstatisticianJessicaUtts.Whenshe
reviewedalloftheresultsobtainedatSRIfrom1973to1988,Uttsfoundthattheyamountedto
oddsofmorethanabilliontooneagainstchance(z=6.49,p=4.331011).25Inaddition,when
shereviewedthe10experimentsconductedatSAIC,Uttsfoundthatoverhalfofthem(six,or
60%)wereindividualsuccessfulandsignificantbystatisticalstandards.26
AtaboutthesametimethattheprogramsatSRIandSAICwerebeingcarriedout,athird
experimentalprogramonremoteviewingwasbeingindependentlyconductedatthePrinceton
Engineering Anomalies Research (PEAR) Laboratory at Princeton University.27 In these
experiments, volunteers tried to remotely perceive distant geographical sites that would be
visited by another person from the lab at some later time. When all of the experiments
conductedbythePEARgroupfrom1976to1999wereanalyzed,theirresultsamountedtoodds
ofoveramilliontooneagainstchance(z=5.418,p=3108).
TheremoteviewingresultsfromSRI,SAIC,andPEARcanbeassessedinabasicmanner
fromthegraphshowninFigure2below.28Theoverallresultsfortheganzfeldexperimentsand
those obtained in a combined analysis of other freeresponse experiments on clairvoyance29
(includingothersrelatedtoremoteviewing)arealsoshownforcomparison.
Remote Viewing & Free-Response Clairvoyance Experiments: Results Summary
45
40
Hit Rate (%)
35
30
25
20
15
SRI
SAIC
PEAR
Free-Response
Clairvoyance
Ganzfeld Telepathy
Database
Figure 2. Estimated hit rates (and associated 95% confidence intervals) obtained in the remote viewing
programsconductedatStanfordResearchInstitute(SRI),ScienceApplicationsInternationalCorporation(SAIC),and
PrincetonEngineeringAnomaliesResearch(PEAR).28Combinedresultsfortheganzfeldtelepathyexperimentsanda
databaseofotherfreeresponseexperimentsinclairvoyancearealsoshownforcomparison.Theexpectedchance
hitrateisindicatedbythethickredhorizontallineat25%.
Ascanbeseenontheleftsideofthegraph,thehitratesacrossthethreeremoteviewing
programs are all significantly above chance expectation and exhibit a notable degree of
consistencywitheachother.Italsomaybeofnotethatthecombinedhitratesfortheganzfeld
experiments and the database of other freeresponse clairvoyance experiments are nearly
withinthesamerange.
Onepotentialweaknesswiththesefindingsisthattherehasbeensomedebateoverthe
reliability of the detailsconcerningthe procedures used inat least one of the remote viewing
experimentsconductedatSAIC3032,andwhetherornotthismayextendtootherexperimentsin
theprogramremainsuncertain.Again,onewaytogetaroundthisissuewouldbetopreregister
thedetailsofaremoteviewingexperimentinadvance,sothattheyareavailableandmadeclear
toeveryonebeforetheexperimentbegins.
There are, however, a number of other remote viewing experiments that have been
conducted since the SRI, SAIC, and PEAR programs were completed, and interested readers
shouldconsiderthechapterbyStephanSchwartzintherecentanthologyEvidenceforPsifora
broaderandmoredetailedoverview.33
Precognition
Precognition is perhaps the most baffling form of ESP, involving instances in which a
personseemstobecomeawareofacertaineventorconditionasitwillsupposedlyoccurinthe
future.Ifthisisachievedwithoutusingtheordinarysensesorlogicalinference,thenhowcan
onepossiblyknowabouteventsthathaventevenhappenedyet?
To study precognition, parapsychologists have designed a number of different

experimentsinwhichpredictionsaremadeabouttheoutcomesofcertaineventsbeforethose
eventshaveeventakenplace.Forinstance,incardguessingexperiments,participantsareasked
to predict the resulting sequence of symbols in a pack of ESP cards that will come up a short
timelater,whenthepackisshuffledanumberoftimes.Inotherwords,theparticipantstryto
guesstheendingsymbolorderthatresultsfromshufflingthecards,buttheydosobeforethe
cardshaveevenbeenshuffled.
Someprecognitionexperimentshaveresembledthecasinogameofcraps,inthatbefore
apairofdiceisthrown,theparticipantsareaskedtopredictthenumbersthatwillcomeupon
theroll.Otherexperimentshaveinvolvedaskingtheparticipantstoguessthetargetsthatwould
be later selected by an electronic random number generator. When all of the various
experimentsconductedfrom1935to1987werecollectivelyanalyzedbyCharlesHonortonand
psychologistDianeFerrari34,theyfoundthattheoverallresultwashighlysignificant,withodds
ofabout900milliontoone(z=6.02,p=1.1109).
More recently, psychologist Daryl Bem conducted a series of nine experiments which
were designed to look for precognition in reversed forms of wellknown psychological effects
related to emotion and cognitive thought.35,36 All but one of these experiments had produced
statistically significant results. And since they were first reported in the prominent Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology in 2011, there have been 90 individual attempts to repeat
Bemsexperiments.Whenthese90repeatedexperimentsarecollectivelyanalyzedasawhole,
theyresultinanoddsratioofabout8billiontoone(z=6.40,p=1.21010).37
Insteadofsimplytryingtopredictafutureoutcome,someoftherecentexperimentsin
precognition have involved monitoring the physiological activity of a participants autonomic
nervoussysteminanattempttodetectakindofanticipatorypreresponsetoanemotional
event that will occur in the future. To see what is meant by preresponse, consider the
followingexample:Usuallywheneverweencountersomethingthatfrightensorstartlesus,like
a threatening animal, our body reacts with an instinctive jump response. In terms of our
commonlyheld notions about cause and effect, the threatening posture of the animal can be
seen as the cause that leads to the effect of our body jumping in response. But what if the
arrow of time were reversed, as it seems to be in precognition? Is it possible for an effect to
precede its cause? Could our body subtly react with a jump even before we encounter the
threateninganimal?Suchanexperiencemaybeakintothefleetingintuitions,premonitions,or
gut feelings that some people describe having whenever they suddenly feel that something
badisabouttohappen.
DeanRadinattheInstituteofNoeticSciencesinCaliforniahadledthewayinexploring
thisinthelate1990swithhisexperimentsinpresentiment(atermreferringtoaprefeelingor
an emotional preresponse).3839 In his experiments, Radin asked volunteers to sit before a
monitorscreenandviewedarandomseriesofaffectiveandneutralpictureswhiletheelectrical
activity in the nerve cells of their skin (called electrodermal activity, or EDA) was continually
monitored. The affective pictures showed things that tend to arouse a strong emotional
responseinus,whetherthatresponseisnegative(suchasfearordisgust)orpositive(suchas
sexual arousal). To elicit a negative response, pictures of things like violent acts, mutilated
bodies,andthreateninganimalswereshown,whileeroticimageswereshowntoelicitapositive
response.Incontrast,theneutralpicturesshowedthingsthattendtoberelativelyblandand
stirverylittleemotioninus,suchaslandscapesandhouseholditems.
In general, Radins results indicated that in few seconds before they were shown an
affectivepicture,theEDAofthevolunteershadnotablyincreased(ascomparedtotheEDAin
the seconds before they saw a neutral picture, which was lower) to a statistically significant
degree.Thissuggeststhat,evenbeforeseeingtheaffectivepicture,thevolunteershadexhibited
a subtle jump in their bodys nervous system activity in anticipation of its appearance. This
becameknownasthepresentimentresponse.40
Atotalof20EDAbasedexperimentsakintoRadinshavebeenconductedsincethelate
1990s. When combined and analyzed, these experiments were conservatively found to be
associatedwithanoddsratiogreaterthan3,300toone(z=3.44,p<.0003).41
Onemightfigurethatifthepresentimentresponseisagenuinephysiologicaleffect,then
it should also be reflected in more familiar kinds of behavioral responses. To explore that
possibility,DickBiermanattheUniversityofAmsterdamalsoreanalyzedtheEDAdatacollected
incertainmainstreampsychophysiologicalstudiesrelatingtoemotionanddecisionmaking.42In
oneofthesestudies,researchersattheUniversityofIowahadmonitoredtheEDAofvolunteers
as they made risky decisions in a simulated gambling situation.43 In another study, a group of
Europeanresearchersmonitoredthestartledreflexresponsesofpeoplewhenapictureshowing
a certain type of animal they feared (either snakes or spiders) was randomly flashed before
them,accompaniedbyloudstartlingnoises.44
Asonemightexpect,theparticipantsinthesetwostudiesshowedlargeincreasesinEDA
afterlearningthattheydmadeabaddecisionorafterseeingthepictureoftheanimalthey
feared,respectively.However,Biermansanalysisalsoshowedthat,inthefewsecondsleading
up to their decision (or to seeing the feared animal), the participants also exhibited small but
significantincreasesinEDA(akintopresentiment),asiftheywerealreadysubtlyrespondingto
thedecisiontheydbemakingorthepicturetheydbeseeinginthemomentstocome.Later
in his own study, Bierman found similar presentimentlike responses in the EDA of volunteers
just before they made errors (in the form of incorrect choices) in learning a basic grammar
task that used symbols to represent words.45 These findings seem to suggest that
presentimentmaybeanatural,lesserknownbehavioralresponse,perhapsakintoourfamiliar
startlereflexresponse.
Psychokinesis(MindOverMatter)
Psychokinesis,orPKforshort,isatypeofpsychicexperienceinwhichthereseemstobe
aninteractionbetweenthehumanmindandphysicalmatter,suchthatthemindisabletohave
aninfluenceonthebehaviorofmatter.Thisapparentinfluenceiscommonlydepictedinpopular
fiction,film,andtelevisionasapeoplemovingobjectswiththeirminds,andsothemorefamiliar
phaseofmindovermatterisoftenusedamongthegeneralpublic.
ThereareactuallytworecognizedformsofPK:microscopicandmacroscopic.Microscopic
PK(ormicroPKforshort)istheonethatsbeenmostcommonlystudiedinthelaboratory.Part
ofthereasonforthisisthat,whentheyoccur,microPKeffectsusuallyarentovertlynoticeable.
Instead, they appear to be very subtle and minute, acting mostly on the microscopic level of
reality that is inhabited by subatomic matter (i.e., particles such as electrons and protons). At
thisextremelysmalllevel,thebehaviorofmatterisgovernedlargelybyprobability.Thismeans
that,sincewecantdirectlyobservethem,wecanonlyestimatethechancesofthingsmovingor
actinginacertainway.
To produce its effects, its thought that microPK somehow affects or changes the
probabilitiesassociatedwithsubatomicmatter,whichinturnaffectsitsresultingbehavior.And
sincethiskindofeffectissosubtlethatitcantbeobservedwiththenakedeye,theonlywayin
which were able to assess the effect of microPK is by monitoring statistical changes in the
randomoutputofphysicaldevicesthatarebasedonprocessesoperatingatthesubatomiclevel.
Onesuchdeviceistheelectronicrandomnumbergenerator(RNG).Thisdevicehasbeenaprime
tool in the study of microPK ever since the 1960s, when it was developed for application in
parapsychologicalexperimentsbyphysicistHelmutSchmidt.
The RNG consists of an electronic circuit that produces a random series of binary
numbers(i.e.,anumericalseriesof1sand0s)basedontheactivityofatrulyrandomand
unpredictable source, such as radioactive decay or the noise created by a moving stream of
electrons. As a convenient and useful analogy, this method of generating a series of random
numbers can be likened to repeatedly flipping a coin into the air, and then seeing whether
heads(arbitrarilyrepresentedbya1)ortails(representedbya0)comesuponeachflip.
Thus,theprobabilityofgettingheadsortailswitheachflipisexactly50%(or50/50).
Ordinarily,aperfectlyrandomRNGoperatingundisturbedonitsownwouldbeexpected
toproducearoughlyequalbalanceofheadsandtailsoveralongseriesofelectroniccoin
flips. Ideally, when cumulatively plotted as a line graph, the data would look something like
what is shown below in Figure 3, with the data line being flat and zigzagging up and down
randomlyaroundtheexpectationlineatzero,withnocleardirection.
The goal of a person participating in a microPK experiment is to try and upset this
balancebymentallywillingtheRNGtoproduceeithermoreheadsormoretailsthanwould
be expected by chance. The data resulting from this experiment is then later compared to
controldatathatwerecollectedfromtheRNGeitherwhenthepersonwasdirectinghisorher
attentionawayfromtheRNG,or(perhapsmoreideally)whennooneispresentatall.
150
Cumulative Deviation
100
50
-50
3501
3001
2501
2001
1501
1001
501
-100
Number of RNG Data Trials
Figure 3. Data from a random number generator as it might ideally be expected to look when running
undisturbed on its own under ordinary, everyday circumstances, without any microPK influence. The curved arc
representsthethresholdofstatisticalsignificance(atoddsof20to1againstchance).
The most extensive series of microPK experiments was conducted at the Princeton
Engineering Anomalies Research (PEAR) Laboratory at Princeton University over a twelveyear
period.46 An evaluation of this experimental series involving a total of 91 participants and
nearly2.5millionindividualRNGdatatrialsrevealsanoveralldeviationawayfromexpected
randomnessthatissignificantatoddsofabout2.9trilliontoone(z=7.18,p3.51013).
A graph of the PEAR series can be seen in Figure 4, showing the three individual
directionsofmentalinfluenceaimedforbytheparticipants.WhenaskedtoaimHI(inother
words,producemoreheads),theparticipantswereseeminglyabletowillfullymovetheline
steadilyupward(toparrowinFigure4)awayfromexpectation,makingtheRNGproducemore
headsand,ineffect,makingitbehavelessrandomthanwouldbeexpected.Similarly,when
askedtoaimLO(i.e.,producemoretails),theparticipantswereseeminglyabletowillfully
movethelinesteadilydownward(bottomarrowinFigure4),indeedmakingtheRNGproduce
more tails. And even when the participants were asked to try and mentally will the RNG to
maintain a flat and steady baseline (BL), there appeared to be some degree of directional
influenceonthedata.
More heads
expectation
More tails
Figure4.RNGdatafromthe12yearseriesofmicroPKexperimentsconductedbyPrincetonUniversitys
PEARLaboratory,showingthethreedirectionsofmentalinfluenceaimedforbyits91participants.Thecurvedarcs
indicate the threshold of statistical significance. Compare the behavior of this experimental RNG data with the
exampledatashowninFigure3.
Inaddition,fouranalyseshavebeendonetodateofthehundredsofotherexperimental
microPK studies that parapsychologists have conducted using RNGs.7,4749 A summary of their
individualresultsisgraphicallydisplayedbelowinFigure5.Itcanbeseenthatineachofthese
analyses,theRNGdataexhibitanextremelysmallyethighlysignificantshiftawayfromthe
average expected hit rate of 50%, indicating a slight imbalance in the RNG data towards
producing more heads. These experimental data contrast with the data collected from 137
control RNG studies reported up to the year 200649, which are largely consistent with the
expectedhitrateof50%.Fromtheassociatedoddsratioslistedbelow,itcanbeseenthatwhile
theimbalancesobservedintheexperimentalRNGdataaresmall,theyareconsiderablybeyond
chance(whereasthecontroldataareindeedconsistentwithchance).
EstimatedOddsRatio
RNGAnalysis
RN198947
RN2003
10billion
48
100quindecillion
BSB200649
DR2006
6,000to1
7,Ch.9
3,050to1
49
Control2006
7to1
50.03
50.025
Hit Rate (%)
50.02
50.015
50.01
50.005
50
49.995
49.99
RN 1989
RN 2003
BSB 2006
DR 2006
Control 2006
Meta-Analysis
Figure 5. Graphical summary of four analyses that collectively examine the hundreds of experimental
studies on microPK using RNGs. The first two represent analyses done by Dean Radin and Roger Nelson (RN) in
1989and20034748,whilethethirdrepresentsananalysisdonebyBsch,Steinkamp,andBoller(BSB)in200649.The
fourth represents an update of the 1989 analysis by Radin (DR)7,Ch.9. The results from 137 control RNG studies
reportedsince200649arealsoshownforcomparison.Theredhorizontallinerepresentstheaverageexpectedhit
rateof50%.
TheseanalysesindicatethatmicroPKeffectstendtobesosmallinmagnitudethatthey
are just barely distinguishable from the random sea of ambient background noise that
regularlypermeatesthedataproducedbyRNGs.Despitehowsmalltheytendtobe,aremicro
PKeffectscapableofmanifestingintherealworld?Andifso,cantheybedetected?
Tofindout,thePEARresearchersbegantakingportableRNGsandsettingthemupwhere
various kinds of grouporiented social events (such as concerts, parties, and workshops) were
being held. But unlike in the standard microPK experiment, the group members didnt try to
mentallyinfluencetheRNGinthiscase.Instead,theRNGwassimplylefttorunsilentlyinthe
background,andinmostcases,thegroupmemberswerecompletelyunawareofitspresence.
Whenanalyzed,theRNGdatacollectedduringthegroupeventsoftenshowedasignificantnon
random pattern very similar to that seen in laboratory experiments.50 These patterns were
absentfromcontroldatathathadbeencollectedaftertheeventwasover,andthegrouphad
dispersed.Intotal,thePEARresearcherscollectedRNGdataat15differentkindsofgroupsocial
events,andthecombinedresultsfromthemhadoddsofover450,000to1againstchance(2=
616.14, 466 df, p = 2.20 106).51 These studies suggest a form of unconscious group PK on
randomdatathatisperhapsrelatedtothedegreeofsocialunity,rapport,orbondsharedby
thegroupmembers,aswellasthesocialdynamicsthatresultfromsuchunity.50
The promising results of these group PK studies led PEAR researcher Roger Nelson and
others to expand the research to a global scale by establishing the first worldwide, Internet
based network of continuously running RNGs. The purpose of this global RNG network is to
monitorforunintentionalgroupPKeffectsthatoccuronabroadscaleinconjunctionwiththe
mass focus of attention and emotional response among people around the world that usually
developswheneveranotableeventintheworldoccurs.Theinternationalefforttomaintainand
monitorthisRNGnetwork,involvingsome70researchersworldwide,hasbecomeknownasthe
GlobalConsciousnessProject,orGCP,forshort.52Onaverage,thereareabout30to40RNGsin
theGCPsglobalnetworkthatarecollectingrandomdataaroundtheclock.
Since it started inAugust of 1998, the GCP has examined the data from its global RNG
network in relation to over 340 formally defined events. When combined, these data are
associatedwithanoddsratioofaboutabilliontoone(z=6.70,p=1.021011).53
PerhapsthemostobviousweaknesswiththemicroPKfindingsishowsmalltheeffects
tendtobe.Arguably,inordertomakeastrongercaseforPK,oneshouldhopetofinddisplaysof
mindovermatterthataremoreovertlytangible,readilyobservable,andwhichdonotrequire
statistical evaluation for their effects to become evident. That is the focus of studies of
macroscopicPK(ormacroPKforshort).
So far, the most extensively documented form of macroPK has been recurrent
spontaneous psychokinesis, or RSPK, for short.5455 Most often, RSPK involves the sudden
movementordisturbanceofobjectswithoutanyapparentforceactinguponthem.Itcanalso
occasionally include percussive sounds (like knocks, raps, thumps, and similar noises) with no
clearsource,aswellasotherphysicalmanifestationsthatabruptlytakeplacewithouttangible
contact.DisplaysofRSPKoccurrepeatedlyovertimeandareusuallyshortlived,lastingonlya
fewmonthsorso.55
Becauseoftheirseeminglymysteriousnature,peoplehavetraditionallyinterpretedRSPK
disturbancesasbeingduetothemischievousactivityofsomesortofunseenspirit,andforthis
reason,thepopulartermpoltergeist(Germanfornoisyspirit)haslongbeeninuseamongthe
generalpublicwhenreferringtothephenomenon.
However,whentheyreexaminedclosely,manycasesofRSPKshowstrongindicationsof
a psychological component underlying the disturbances. For example, when they occur, the
disturbances are typically focused around a particular person (known as an RSPK agent), and
tend to occur only when that person is awake and present in the room. Often times, there a
certain degree of psychological tension or conflict that exists between the agent and other
peoplewholiveorworkinthesamesurroundings,whichisusuallyunresolvedandrepressed.
Initially,theRSPKdisturbancesmaysubtlyreflectthisturbulentrelationshipinasymbolicway
bythedisturbancestakingonadestructiveedge,withalargenumberofobjectsbreakingwhen
theymove.Butlateron,wheninvestigatorsandotheroutsidevisitorsarriveonthescene,the
psychological aspect may change from negative to positive, with the tension or conflict being
replacedbytheagentsneedforattention,whichisstimulatedbythesuddeninterestthatthe
investigatorsandvisitorsshowtowardtheagent.Asaresult,theRSPKmaycontinuetooccur
while the investigators and visitors are focusing on the agent.56 Once the agent is counseled
about the unresolved problems that he or she has with others and is able to deal with any
repressedfeelings,theRSPKdisturbancesoftenvanishalongwiththeagentsproblems.
Despitebeingmoreovert,themainweaknesswithmacroPKisitsfleetingandrelatively
infrequentoccurrence,whichcanoftenmakeitdifficulttodocumentinawaythatcanreliably
ruleoutnaturalprocessesordeliberatefraudasapossiblecause.Generally,continuedvigilance
inRSPKcaseshasbeensuccessfulinuncoveringthosephenomenawhichhavehadanaturalor
fraudulentcause,althoughthisusuallyrequiresagreatdegreeofpatienceandconcertedeffort
on the part of the investigators. This tends to make macroPK not very easy to study, but its
possiblyoneoftheonlywaysthatwecanaddressthisweakness.
SurvivalRelatedPhenomena
Otherkindsofpsychicexperiencesthatpeoplehavereportedarethosewhichseemto
haveabearingonquestionoflifeafterdeath.Thesecanincludeexperiencessuchasencounters
with apparitions (or ghosts) of the dead5758, receiving messages from deceased loved ones
throughmediums59,catchingafleetingglimpseofanafterlifeexistenceduringalifethreatening
moment60, and seemingly being able to remember a previous life as another person.61 Lets
brieflyconsidertheevidentialstrengthsandweaknessesofeachoftheseinturn.
ApparitionsoftheDead:Therearesomeaccountsintheparapsychologicalliteratureof
encountersthat people have hadwith apparitional figures of deceased individuals which have
been detailed enough in appearance to potentially allow for some degree of verification later
on. One example of such an account is the following one reported by Dianne Arcangel, which
shereceivedfromawomaninArkansas.Here,thewomandescribesanapparitionalexperience
thathercousinoncehad:
Acousinfrommymotherssideofthefamilysawmyfatherjustminutesafterhisdeath.
Ourfamilieshadbeenestrangedsinceshewasyoung,soIwasshockedwhenIheardthatshe
wokeupatthreeoclockonSundaymorningwithhimatthefootofherbed.Atbreakfast,she
toldherhusbandandchildren.Ilookedupandsawanoldmanstandingthere,staringatme.He
wasradiatingapeacefulgoldenglow.Itsbeenover30yearssinceIsawUncleTed,butIknow
that was him and that hes dead. Then, on Tuesday, they read in the newspaper that he had
diedat3A.M.onSunday.
Afterallthoseyears,shecalledmeanddescribedmefatherinexactdetail.Ihadreadthat
apparitionswerehallucinations,soIhadtowonderHowcouldshehavehallucinatedthat?She
couldnthave,becausethelasttimesheoranyoneinherfamilysawhim,heweighedovertwo
hundredpounds,hadaheadfullofthickblackhair,andashiningcomplexion.Butduringthelast
monthsofhislife,hebecamethin,frail,wrinkled,andhishairwasthinandtotallygray.Plus,she
describedhisfinalphysicalchanges,whichonlyhisdoctor,nurse,andIknew.
Mycousinsaid,UncleTeddidntsayanything,butIsomehowknewexactlywhohewasand
thathewastheretomakeamends.Andforsomereason,allthepainandangerIfelttowardthe
family disappeared when I saw him like that. I cant believe it, but just seeing him was all I
needed.Imnotmadatanyoneanymore.Itsokay.
NowmycousinandItalkoften,andshecametoourfamilygatheringthissummer. Seems
likeamiracle.57,pp.2223,emphasisinoriginal
Thisaccountisinterestingfromaparapsychologicalviewpointbecausethewomanscousinhad
apparently witnessed physical details about her deceased uncle that she couldnt have known
aboutatthetime,sinceshehadntseenherunclein30years.Thisseemstosuggestapsychic
componenttotheexperience,whichmightvehelpedmediateitsoccurrence.
Therehavealsobeenselectcasesofhauntingsinwhichpeoplehavewitnesseddetailed,
lifelikeapparitionalfiguresofdeceasedindividualsatcertainplaceswherethoseindividualshad
oncelivedorworkedinlife.62OnesuchcaseistheGordycaseinvestigatedinthe1980sbythe
lateWilliamRoll.63,p.160Abriefnarrativeofthecaseisasfollows:
Soonaftermovingtoanewhomewithherfamily,alittlegirlnamedHeidiWyrickhad
met a man in her neighborhood named Con, who invited her to play on a tree swing in a
nearbyyard.WhenHeidiaskedforpermissiontodoso,hermotheraskedaboutConandHeidi
described him as having a bandaged right hand and wearing a Tshirt with blood all over.
ConcernedthatConmighttrytoharmorkidnapthegirl,Heidisparentshadtheneighborhood
searchedfortheman,buttheywereunabletofindhim.
A short time later, Heidi began speaking of regularly meeting with another man in the
neighborhoodnamedMr.Gordytoplayontheswing,andherparentssimplyfiguredthatCon
andMr.Gordywerethegirlsimaginaryplaymates.Eventually,throughaseriesofdocuments,
theydiscoveredthatanelderlygentlemannamedJamesGordy,aswellasamannamedLon,
hadactuallylivedintheneighborhoodmanyyearsback,andthatLonhadlosthisrighthandina
machineryaccident.ThedescriptionsthatHeidigaveofthetwomenwerelaterfoundtoclosely
matchphotographsofthem,andshewasabletocorrectlypickthemoutofarandomcollection
ofoldphotographs.Tryashemight,RollcouldntfindanyordinarywayinwhichHeidicouldve
learned about them prior to her familys discovery of their identities. This suggests that there
mayhavebeenapsychiccomponenttoHeidisapparitionalexperiences.
A potential weakness with these kinds of apparition and haunting cases is that despite
howinterestingtheyseemtobe,therecurrentlytendstoberelativelyfewofthemthathave
been extensively investigated, carefully documented, and their details verified. And although
they are rather abundant in folklore, such cases do not seem to be as widely prolific in the
presenttime,whichmaymakeidentifyingandinvestigatingcasesliketheseratherchallenging.
But if additional cases can be identified, investigated, and documented, then a stronger
evidentialbasisforconsiderationcanpossiblybemade.
Mediumship: There has long been a public fascination with the claimed ability of
mediumstocommunicatewithandreceivemessagesfromthedead.Thisextendsbacktothe
height of the Spiritualism movement in the late 19th century, when it was quite popular for
people to gather in parlor rooms for a sance with a medium who would seemingly bring
throughmessageswhileinastateoftrance.Systematicstudyofmediumshipalsotookastep
forwardatthistimewiththefoundingoftheSocietyforPsychicalResearch(SPR)inEnglandin
1882.Althoughmanyfraudulentmediumswereeventuallyidentifiedandexposedbytheearly
membersoftheSPR,theydidcomeacrosscertainindividuals,suchasMrs.LeonorePiper,who
seemedtoposegenuineenigmas.59
MostofthestudiesdonebytheearlySPRmemberswerelargelyobservationalinnature,
and tended not to be too optimally controlled because the sances usually took place in the
homes of the mediums or the people hosting them. Arguably, in order to develop a stronger
evidentialbasisformediumship,thestudieswouldhavetomovefromtheparlorroomtothe
morecontrollablespaceoftheresearchlaboratory.
One of the initial steps in this direction was made by J. B. Rhine and his colleagues at
DukeUniversityinthe1930s,whentheyconductedESPexperimentswithMrs.EileenJ.Garrett,
one of the last wellrecognized trance mediums of the 20th century.64 Among these was an
experimental series incardguessing, in which Mrs. Garrett was asked to call the symbols in a
standarddeckof25ESPcardsattimeswhenshewasinanordinarystateofconsciousness,and
at times when she was in her trance state (a time when Uvani, her spirit control a
supposeddiscarnatespiritwhohelpedhercommunicatewiththedeadwaspresent).65With
theprobabilityofcorrectlyguessingacard(i.e.,scoringahit)being1in5,Mrs.Garrettwould
be expected to achieve an average overall hit rate around 20% by chance alone, across the
entireseriesofsixexperiments.
AgraphicalsummaryofMrs.Garrettsperformanceinthisseriesofexperiments(whilein
hernormalwakingstate)isshowninFigure6below.Itcanbeseenthatinatleasttwoofthe
series(SeriesA&F),shedidindeedscoreveryclosetotheaverageexpectedhitrateof20%.
However, in the other four series, Mrs. Garrett had exceeded 20% to a considerable degree.
More importantly, when her performance across the entire series is taken into account
(representedbythediamondmarkedAllonthefarrightsideofFigure6),wefindthatMrs.
Garrettachievedanoverallhitrateof25.3%.Althoughthisfivepercentdifferencefromaverage
expectationsoundssmall,itsanoverwhelminglysignificantdifferencebystatisticalstandards,
beingassociatedwithoddsofmorethan100quindecillion(thatsa1with50zerosbehindit)to
one!(z=16.01,p<<1050)
ESP Card Tests with Medium Eileen Garrett - Normal State (Rhine, 1934)
32
30
Hit Rate (%)
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
All
Test Series
Figure 6. A graphical summary of Mrs. Garretts performance on the six series of ESP cardguessing
experimentsconductedwhileshewasinanordinarystateofconsciousness.Eachdiamondrepresentsthehitrate
obtainedbyMrs.Garrettinagivenseries,withtheassociated95%confidenceintervalindicatedbythebars.Note
that in four series (B, C, D, & E), Mrs. Garrett scored hit rates notably above expectation. Moreover, when Mrs.
Garrettsoverallperformanceonthesixseriesisconsidered(thediamondmarkedAllalongthefarrightsideof
thegraph),weagainseethatherhitratenotablyexceedsexpectation(thethickredhorizontalline).Basedupona
statisticalreexaminationofdataoriginallypublishedbyJ.B.Rhinein1934.65
Furthermore,whentestedinhertrancestate,Mrs.Garrettsoverallhitratewasfoundto
stillbesignificantat23.1%(z=3.087,p=.001),whichisassociatedwithanoddsratioof1,000
toone.TheseresultsseemtoindicatethatMrs.Garretthadperformedremarkablywellunder
relativelywellcontrolledconditions(whichincludedsituationsinwhichsheguessedthesymbols
inathoroughlyshuffleddeckofESPcardsthatwaslocatedinaseparateroom).
Publicinterestinmediumshiphasseenresurgenceinrecentyearswiththepopularityof
TVshowslikeMediumandfilmssuchasTheSixthSense,andintandemwiththis,therehasbeen
a handful of experimental efforts to study the claims of presentday mediums who are
accustomed to giving readings directly to the people consulting them (who are traditionally
calledsitters).
To be more certain that mediums are psychically receiving information about a sitters
deceasedlovedones(andnotfromvisualcues,logicalinference,andotherordinarymeans),its
been important in these experiments to conduct the mediumship readings in a manner that
tendstobequitedifferentfromthekindsofreadingsthatmediumshavebeenshowntogiveto
sitters on TV. In a controlled experimental setting, the medium isnt told anything about the
sitter (or the deceased loved one they hope to contact) before the reading, and is asked to
conductthereadingwithoutthesitterevenbeingpresent(sothatthesittercantinadvertently
givefacialcuesorfeedbackhintstothemedium).Instead,oneoftheexperimentersactsasa
standinonthesittersbehalfandrecordsthereadingforthesitter.Afterward,thereadingis
transcribedandgiventothesitter,alongwiththetranscriptsofseveralotherdecoyreadings
thatwereintendedforothersitters.Beforebeingtoldwhichreadingistheirs,thesitterisasked
to read through all of the transcribed readings and rate each of the mediums impressions
accordingtohowwellitseemstoaccuratelyfitthesittersdeceasedlovedone.Presumably,if
the medium really is receiving correct impressions from the sitters deceased loved one, then
thesittershouldratethetargetreading(i.e.,thereadingthatwasactuallyintendedforhimor
her)asbeingthemostaccurate,ascomparedtothedecoyreadings.
A recent review of five mediumship experiments conducted in this controlled manner
hadfoundthatonlytwohadproducedsignificantlypositiveresults.66Bothofthesecamefrom
the Windbridge Institute, which the reviewers noted had used ...a pairing procedure of the
deceased persons to optimize differences [between them] (in categories like age at passing,
hobbies,physicaldescription,causeofdeath).Hence,itseemsthat...choosingthetargetreading
waslessdifficultforsittersofthepositivethanforthenegativestudies.66,p.133Ifthatisthe
case, then this could offer one possible way to account for the significant results. In addition,
otherpotentialissueshavebeenraisedaboutthedesignoftheWindbridgeexperimentswhich
mayleavesomequestionregardingthevalidityoftheirpositiveresults.67
Inevaluatingearlierexperimentalstudieswithmediumsandpsychics,psychologistSybo
Schouten had also found that ...less than half of the studies reported positive results.68,p.245
Coupled with the latest review of mediumship experiments, this seems to pose a rather
considerableweaknessfortheevidentialbasisformediumshipatthepresenttime.Whilethere
appear to have been some notable mediums in the past (like Mrs. Garrett), the latest studies
seemtoindicatethatthatmaynotnecessarilybethecasenowformediumsofthepresentday.
But its also important to recognize that the currently available database on this topic is still
relativelysmall,andthatadditionalcontrolledexperimentsareneededforafairerevaluation.
NearDeath Experiences: Numerous accounts exist of people having profound

experiencesduringmomentsinwhichtheyveseeminglycomeclosetodeath.Thesecaninclude
venturing through a dark tunnel, seeing otherworldly visions of an afterlife existence,
encounteringdeceasedrelativesandfriends,andsensingthepresenceofdivinebeings,among
others.60 Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of these neardeath experiences (NDEs) from a
parapsychologicalstandpointhasbeenthesensethatsomepeoplehavehadofremainingfully
awareoftheirsurroundingsattimeswhentheyrepresumedtobefullyunconscious,comatose,
or even clinically dead.6975 One such account of awareness during an NDE was cited by
researchersKennethRingandMadelaineLawrence:
In the late 1970s,SueSaunders was working at Hartford Hospital asa respiratory therapist.
One day, she was helping to resuscitate a 60ish man in the emergency room, whose
electrocardiogram[i.e.,heartmonitor]hadgoneflat.Medicswereshockinghimrepeatedlywith
noresults.Saunderswastryingtogivehimoxygen.Inthemiddleoftheresuscitation,someone
elsetookoverforherandsheleft.
Acoupleofdayslater,sheencounteredthispatientintheICU.Hespontaneouslycommented,
Youlookedsomuchbetterinyouryellowtop.
Shewas so shocked at this remark that she got goosebumps, for she had been wearing a
yellowsmockthepreviousday.
Yeah, the man continued, I saw you. You had something over your face and you were
pushingairintome.AndIsawyouryellowsmock.
Saundersconfirmedthatshehadhadsomethingoverherfaceamaskandthatshehad
worntheyellowsmockwhiletryingtogivehimoxygen,whilehewasunconsciousandwithouta
heartbeat.75,pp.227228,italicsinoriginal
Inrarerinstances,someindividualshaveeventoldofleavingtheirbodiesandbeingable
to perceive other people and events that were presumably located outside the range of their
bodyssensorymotorsystem.71Suchcasesbecomeparticularlyinterestingwhenthepeopleor
eventswitnessedbytheindividualarelaterindependentlyverified,eitherbythepeopledirectly
involved(i.e.,theyconfirmthattheywereindeeddoingwhattheindividualsawthemdoing),or
byothersnearbywhocanvouchfortheevent.72,74OnesuchcaseisthatofPeggyRaso,which
wasdocumentedbyIanStevensonandhiscolleaguesattheUniversityofVirginiasDivisionof
PerceptualStudies.71,case11Whilerecoveringfromasurgicalprocedureonemorning,Mrs.Raso
suddenlysufferedapulmonaryembolismandfellunconscious.Asmedicalpersonnelsoughtto
reviveher,Mrs.RasoreportedlyhadanNDEinwhichshewentoutofherbodyandobserved
the events occurring in and outside of her hospital room from above. Part of the extensive
personalaccountofherNDEwentasfollows:
Ilookeddownatthebedfrommyvantagepointneartheceiling...Isawagirltherewholooked
to be in a great deal of pain. Her eyebrows were drawn together, her lips were blue, she
appeared to have a blue mustache, there was an oxygen tube in her nose, her hair was wet
looking and strung out on the pillow. I felt sorry for her. Doctors andnurses were coming and
goingfromtheroom.Isawonedoctorhitherhardinthechest.IreallyfeltconfusedatwhatI
wasseeingandhearing.Thenursesstationwasaboutfiftyfeetfrommyroom.Isawadoctor
cometothestationthatIrecognized.HewasafamilyfriendandIhadbeenraisednextdoorto
him.ThenursetoldhimthatPeggyAdams[Mrs.Rasosmaidenname]hadjustdied.Hereplied
that he would call Margaret (my mother). My hearing was extremely acute. I heard and saw
anotherpatientonthefloorcomplainingabouttheactivityandnoisecomingfrommyroom....
Itdawnedonmetheyweretalkingaboutme.ItriedtotellthemIwasnotdownthere.It
becameobvioustheywerenothearingme.Irecognizedanothernursefromanotherfloorcome
intotheroom.Iknewherthoughts.ShehadheardfromthehospitalgrapevinethatIhaddied
and wanted to see. She leaned on the foot of the bed and said, Too bad, and she was only
twentyfive.Shelefttheroomshakingherheadnegativelyandsaidtosomeoneinthehall,Im
sosorry.IwasawareofapriestbeingintheroomandfrommyvantagepointIwatchedhim
leave.Asheenteredthehall,Iheardhimsay,Iwillprayforhersoul.Isawmyhusbandsoftly
cryinginthehall.Hesaid,WhatcanItellthechildren?Myaunt,anRN,answeredhimwith,
Godjustwantedher.Ifeltsorryforthem....
Myattentionwascalledbacktothehallbymyauntsvoice.Isawhersittinginasquatting
positionleaningagainstthewallandtalkingtoanothernursewhowasonduty.Shesaid,She
wassuchagoodlittlemother.IknewshewastalkingaboutmeandIthought,Iamstillagood
littlemother.HerwordsstartledmeintorealizingIwasdead.IlookedatthebodyagainandI
knew it was mine. I tried so hard to tell them I wasnt there anymore and I wasnt in pain. I
wishedtheycouldallbeuptherewithme....71,p.393
Later on, Mrs. Rasos husband verified that her aunt, who did work as an RN at the same
hospital,hadindeedsaid,Shewassuchagoodlittlemother,andherememberedthathehad
saidtoher,IdonotknowwhatIwilldonow.Ihavethreechildrentotakecareofnow.Hedid
notbelievethathiswifecouldhaveseenhimfromhispositionthroughthedoorway,anddid
notthinkshecouldhaveheardhimcryingorwhatheandherauntweresaying.
Although they are difficult to ignore, the potential weakness with NDE cases such as
theseisthattheyremainpurelyanecdotal.Arguably,moreevidentialweightcouldbegivento
themifitwerepossibletoverifytheoutofbodyperceptionsthatpeoplereportduringNDEsin
a more controlled manner. Such an effort has been advocated by physician Sam Parnia, who
arguedthatitmightbepossibletodousingaquasiexperimentalapproach.76Inparticular,he
suggestedthatexperimentaltrialscouldbesetupinhospitalswherehiddenvisualtargetsare
strategicallyplacedaroundcriticalcareandemergencyrooms,inpositions(andatheights)that
only a person looking down at their body from above could see them (e.g., by placing a
randomlyselectedpictureflatonashelfsuspendedfromtheceiling).Parniamadeapreliminary
attempt to do this during his study of cardiac patients at Southampton General Hospital,
althoughnoneoftheNDEpatientsinhisstudyreportedhavinganOBE.77
Parnia actually wasnt the first researcher to propose this kind of experiment; Janice
MinerHoldenoftheUniversityofNorthTexashadinitiallymadeasimilarproposalinthelate
1980s.78 However, practical issues and difficulty in finding hospitals willing to host such
experimentaltrialshadmadeherownpreliminaryattempttoconductthemchallenging,withno
reportsofanNDE.79Morerecently,incollaborationwiththeUniversityofVirginiaresearchers,
Holdenhasconductedadditionaltrialsduringbriefmomentsofsurgicallyinducedcardiacarrest.
Butagain,noneofthe52patientswhoreceivedthesurgeryreportedanNDEduringtheirbrief
cardiac arrest, possibly due to the amnesia brought on by the sedative medication they were
given, and/or to reassurances that they wouldnt be in danger of dying during the surgical
procedure.80
AmoreconcertedeffortwasalsorecentlymadeaspartofthemultihospitalAWAreness
duringREsuscitation(AWARE)study.81Ofthe140cardiacarrestsurvivorswhotookpartinthe
study, only two described having some awareness during their resuscitation attempts. These
didnttakeplaceinroomsequippedwiththeexperimentalapparatus,unfortunately,andsoit
wasntpossibletofurtherverifytheirperceptions.
Althoughtheattemptsmadesofarhaventbeensuccessful,itmustalsoberecognized
that the number of experiments in this database is again quite small, and that additional
experimentsareneededinordertomakeafairerassessment.
Reincarnation:Initially,JamesLeiningermighthaveseemedtobeatypicalAmericanboy
with a great fascination for airplanes. But from the time he first began to speak as a toddler,
James described certain memories he'd had of being a fighter pilot who'd been shot down
duringtheAlliedinvasionofIwoJimaintheSouthPacificduringWorldWarII.Lateron,through
extensive factchecking, James' parents discovered that many of the details James was
describinginhisapparentmemoriesactuallyseemedtofitthelifeofaknownAmericanAllied
pilot, James Huston, Jr., who had indeed been shot down during the Iwo Jima campaign.82,Ch.4
CouldyoungJamesLeiningersomehowberememberingthedetailsofapreviouslife?
This is a summary of just one of the approximately 2,000 cases suggestive of

reincarnation that have been investigated by Jim Tucker and members of the Division of
PerceptualStudiesattheUniversityofVirginia.Thisfollowsuponthepioneeringresearchefforts
madebythelatepsychiatristIanStevenson,whoidentifiedandcarefullydocumentedcasesin
variouscountriesaroundtheworldinwhichchildrenbetweentwotothreeyearsofagebegan
tospontaneouslyrecallapparentmemoriesofapreviouslifeasanotherperson.83Mostoften
thesecasessurfacedinAsiancountriessuchasIndia,SriLanka,SouthwesternChina,Tibet,and
Myanmar (Burma), where a traditional belief in reincarnation is inherent in the regional
Buddhist population. Additional cases with similar characteristics were later uncovered and
documented by Antonia Mills, Erlendur Haraldsson, and Jrgen Keil in the mid1990s, adding
somedegreeofindependentconfirmationtoStevensonsfindings.84
In addition to seemingly remembering events from a deceased persons life, the

children in these cases may also exhibit other unique behaviors. For instance, a child may be
able to spontaneously recognize members of the deceased persons family or identify friends
that the person had known in life. The child may also exhibit one or more unique personality
characteristics which happen to be consistent with the deceased persons lifestyle and
personality.85Forinstance,thechildmaylike(orevendislike)thesamefoodsthatthedeceased
persondid,ormayexpressanaffinityforthereligiousbeliefsystemoncefavoredbythatperson
inlife(evenifthishappenstoconflictwiththechosenbeliefsystemoftheirownfamily).The
childmayalsoexhibitanirrationalfearforcertainobjectswhichhappenedtotieintothecause
oftheindividualsdeath(e.g.,thechildmayfearwaterifthedeceasedpersondrowned).And
somechildrenmayengageinauniqueformofplaywhichseemstomimictheprofessionthey
reportedlyhadintheirpastlife.86 (Foragoodoverviewofthevariouscharacteristicsfoundin
thesecases,seeReferences85&87.)
Butperhapsthemostintriguingaspectofsome200reincarnationcasesisthephysical
presenceofbirthmarksorbirthdefectsonthechildsbodywhichseemtocloselycorrespondto
thelocationofwoundsorinjuriesthatthedeceasedindividualhadsufferedinlife.88,89Initiallyit
might be argued that this close correspondence arose simply through chance coincidence.
However,accordingtoTucker,anestimateoftheoddsmadebyStevensonultimatelyfoundthat
...the odds of two birthmarks matching wounds on another body by chance were about 1 in
25,000.Hebeganwiththesurfaceareaoftheskinoftheaverageadultmalebeing1.6meters.
He then imagined that if this area were square and laid on a flat surface, it would be
approximately 127 centimeters by 127 centimeters. Since he considered a correspondence
between a birthmark and a wound to be satisfactory if they were both within an area of 10
squarecentimetersatthesamelocation,hecalculatedhowmany10centimetersquareswould
fitintothisbodysurfaceareaandfoundthat160would.Theprobabilitythatasinglebirthmark
wouldcorrespondtoawoundwastherefore1/160.Theprobabilitythattwobirthmarkswould
correspondtotwowoundswas(1/160)2or1in25,600.82,p.10
Onthisbasis,itdoesntseemtoolikelythatchancecoincidencewasafactorinthesebirthmark
cases.Ifthatisso,itmayberatherdifficulttoadequatelyaccountforthiscorrespondencewhen
it has been found across 200 individual cases, and this may provide some of the strongest
evidencetodateforconsideringthepossibilityofsurvivalafterdeath.Ifmorecasesofthistype
continue to surface and can be thoroughly documented, then the evidential basis for
consideringreincarnationandsurvivalmaystrengthenevenfurther.
Conclusion
Althoughtheeffectsaresmallinmagnitude,thelinesofprooforientedexperimental
evidencedescribedhereforsuchpsychicexperiencesastelepathy,clairvoyance,precognition,
andpsychokinesisareassociatedwithoddsratiosthattendtobewaybeyondwhatwouldbe
expectedifchancealonewereatworkheresomuchsoinsomecasesthattheywouldnearly
betheanalogicalequivalentofwinningthePowerballjackpotorthePublishersClearingHouse
sweepstakes.Onthatbasis,itmightnotseemtoounreasonabletolayonesoddsonpsibeing
real.
Astheystandcurrently,theoddsfavoringsurvivalrelatedphenomenamaybeabitmore
uncertain, although they could possibly improve if more reported cases can be substantiated
and a better degree of experimental verification can be achieved. Its also important to
recognize that progress in this particular area has been rather slow due to relatively small
numberofpeopleactivelyresearchingitonafulltimebasis,andsoatthispointtheavailable
databaseremainsratherlimited.Asmentionedbefore,itwillbeimportanttogatheradditional
datainseveralareasofsurvivalrelatedresearchbeforeafairerassessmentoftheevidencecan
bemade.
In spite of these impressive odds, some skeptics argue that the possibility of psi being
realremainstobehighlydebatablebasedoncertaintheoreticalobjections.90Forinstance,some
skeptics have argued that despite being significant, the psi effects that have been detected in
thelaboratorytendtobesosmallthattheyprobablyarentreallyworthmuchnotice.Inorder
togaugejusthowbiganeffectis,psychologistsoftencalculateavalueknownastheeffectsize,
whichtypicallyrangesbetween+1and1,with0essentiallymeaningnoeffectatall.Togetan
idea of how big the effects are in parapsychology, the estimated average effect sizes for the
experimentalareasonESPthatweveexaminedhereareshowninthetablebelow.
ExperimentalArea
EffectSize
GanzfeldTelepathy15(as2012)
SRIRemoteViewing
25
SAICRemoteViewing
0.21
26
PEARRemoteViewing
0.12
0.23
27
0.21
29
FreeResponseClairvoyance
34
Precognition,19351987
PrecognitionD.Bem37
Presentiment41
0.16
0.01
0.20
0.17
It can be seen from the table that yes, indeed ESP effect sizes tend be rather small. But
whatsimportanttorecognizehereisthatmostoftheseeffectsizesareactuallyquitecloseto
the average effect sizes that one typically sees in conventional psychological studies. Back in
2003, psychologist F. D. Richard and his colleagues had published a report in which they
collectively analyzed the results from 100 years worth of experiments in social psychology,
involving more than 8 million volunteer participants.91 In all, they found that the average
estimated effect size across all of these experiments was 0.21, and that the effect sizes for a
fairlysizableproportionoftheexperiments(about30%)fellintotherangeof0.10orless.
Thissuggeststhattheeffectsseeninconventionalareasofpsychologyalsotendtobe
rathersmallaswell,andthatmostfindingsinparapsychologytendtobenearlyonparwiththat.
Inthatrespect,psychicabilitiesmaynotbesodissimilarfromordinaryformsofbehavior.It
alsosuggeststhatwedontreallyhavemuchreasontoexpectthatmostpeoplewouldnaturally
beabletoexhibitpsychicabilitiesonthelevelofthefictionalXMen,andthattheywouldbe
breakingthebankinlotteriesandcasinoswherevertheygo.
Otherskeptics,suchaspsychologistJamesAlcock,havearguedthat:
A major criticism of parapsychology is that it fails to jibe with other areas of science. The late
neuropsychologist Donald Hebb...once commented that if parapsychology is right, then physics
andbiologyandneurosciencearehorriblywronginsomefundamentalrespects.17,p.45
Inasimilarfashion,professionalskepticMichaelShermeroncestatedthat:
The deeper reason scientists remain unconvinced of psi is that there is no theory for how psi
works. Until psi proponents can elucidate how thoughts generated by neurons in the senders
braincanpassthroughtheskullandintothebrainofthereceiver,skepticismistheappropriate
response,asitwasforcontinentaldriftsansplatetectonics.92,p.31
Wouldpsychicexperiencesreallybethatincompatiblewithmainstreamscience?Perhapsnot.
While they havent yet led to a complete working model, some theoretical approaches in
parapsychologyhavebeenfocusinglatelyonpossiblepointsofintersectionbetweenpsiandthe
kinds of physical phenomena predicted by quantum theory, which entail a form of spooky
action at a distance (as Einstein once famously put it).7,93 In addition, various experiments
conductedoverthepastsixtyyearshavefoundthatpsychicexperiencesdotendtoshowsome
correlateswithknownbrainactivity9495,andthatthereishardlyanyevidencewhichindicates
thatpsiactuallyworksinthementalradiolikemannerthatShermerclaimsitdoes.95Allthis
maysuggestthatcontrarytowhatskepticsmightthinkpsychicexperiencesarenotbeyond
the reach of physics and neuroscience, and that answers to how they work may one day be
foundwithintheseconventionaldomainsofknowledge.
Soitcomesdowntothequestion:whatareyouroddson?Thatsuptoyoutodecide.
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Weighing The Evidence For Psychic Experiences

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Weighing The Evidence For Psychic Experiences

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Williams:PsiEvidenceOverview1

Telepathy is probably the most commonly recognized form of extrasensory perception

Early on, most parapsychologists studied telepathy through experiments in card

66 Ganzfeld Telepathy Experiments (1987 - 2012): Cumulative Hit Rate

Cumulative Hit Rate (%)

Hit Rate (%)

To study precognition, parapsychologists have designed a number of different

Number of RNG Data Trials

Hit Rate (%)

Hit Rate (%)

NearDeath Experiences: Numerous accounts exist of people having profound

This is a summary of just one of the approximately 2,000 cases suggestive of

In addition to seemingly remembering events from a deceased persons life, the

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