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Cc nh l xc sut
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BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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20. C n cp nhn khc loi nhau, khng th dng 1 chic ca cp ny ghp vi 1 chic
ca cp khc. Gi s cc nhn ny b ln ln trong 1 hp. Bc ngu nhin 2k
chic nhn, 4 2k < n. Tm xc sut c ng 2 cp nhn c ly ra.
21. Gi s mt phng c ca th vin ch c 2 loi sch : sch ton v sch k thut,
mi ngi c ch c mn c ti ch mt cun sch. Xc sut mt ngi
c bt k mn sch k thut l 70% v mn sch ton l 30%. Hin trong phng
ch c 5 ngi c.
a)
b)
Cc nh l xc sut
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trng im hoa c v loi II c bng mu lng trng . Bit s lan loi I bng 5/3
s lan loi II, v t l n hoa tng ng ca 2 loi ln lt l 90%, 80%. Ngi
mua chn ngu nhin mt cy.
a)
b)
34.
35. Trong kho hng c 16 kin hng do phn xng I v 4 kin do phn xng II sn
xut. T l ph phm ca mi sn phm do cc phn xng ny sn xut ln lt l
5% v 2%. Chn ngu nhin mt kin hng kim tra.
a) Xc sut kin hng chn do phn xng II sn xut l bao nhiu ?
b) Gi s m kin hng v ly ngu nhin 15 sn phm th c 2 ph phm. Khi
xc sut kin hng chn do phn xng II sn xut l bao nhiu ?
c) Gi s m kin hng v ly ngu nhin mt sn phm th c ph phm, sau
ly tip mt sn phm na t kin hng ny cng c ph phm. Vy xc sut kin
hng chn do phn xng II sn xut l bao nhiu ?
d) Gi s m kin hng v ly ngu nhin mt sn phm th c ph phm, sau
ly tip 2 sn phm na cng t kin hng ny. Kh nng c 2 sn phm tip theo u
l chnh phm bng bao nhiu?
36. Sn phm X bn ra th trng do mt nh my gm 3 phn xng I, II, v III sn
xut, trong phn xng I chim 30%, phn xng II chim 45%, phn xng III
chim 25% s lng sn phm ton nh my. T l sn phm loi A do 3 phn
xng I, II v III sn xut ln lt l: 70%, 50% v 90%.
a) Tnh t l sn phm loi A do nh my sn xut.
b) Chn mua ngu nhin mt sn phm X th trng. Gi s mua c sn
phm loi A, h y cho bit sn phm y c kh nng do phn xng II sn xut
l bao nhiu?
c) Cn mua ngu nhin ti thiu bao nhiu sn phm X th trng xc sut
gp phi t nht mt sn phm khng phi loi A l trn 98%.
37. Ba cng nhn cng sn xut mt loi sn phm. Xc sut ngi th nht v ngi
th hai lm ra chnh phm bng 0,9; cn xc sut ngi th ba lm ra chnh phm
bng 0,8. Mt ngi trong s lm ra 8 sn phm, thy c hai ph phm. Tm xc
sut trong 8 sn phm tip theo cng do ngi sn xut s c 6 chnh phm.
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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38. (1.38) Mt tin tc in bo to thnh t cc tn hiu (.) v vch (-). Qua thng k cho
bit l do tp m nn khi truyn tin, bnh qun 2/5 tn hiu chm v 1/3 tn hiu vch
b mo. Bit rng t s cc tn hiu chm v vch trong truyn tin i l 5: 3. Tnh xc
sut sao cho nhn ng tn hiu i nu:
a)
b)
0
15
1
20
2
30
3
20
4
10
5
5
45.
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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HNG DN V P N
1. p s: a) 0,24609
b) 0,37695.
Hng dn gii:
Dng nh ngha XS hoc cng thc Becnoulli.
a) S trng hp ng kh nng khi tung 10 ln mt ng xu l n= 210.
S trng hp c 5 mt nga v 5 mt sp l m= C510. C55 .
XS cn tm l m/n 0,24609.
Cch khc, c th coi bi ton c dng bi ton Becnoulli vi n=10, p=1/2, v XS
cn tm l C510.(1/2)5(1/2)5.
b) C th p d ng cch lm ca cu a) cho tng trng hp s ln c mt sp l
6,7,8,9,10 ri cng li. S: 0,37695.
Tuy nhin nu bi ton c m rng vi s ln tung ng xu l s ln th vic
tnh tng c th kh khn. Ta lu rng nu gi A l bin c s mt sp bng s
mt nga; B l bin c s mt sp ln hn s mt nga v C l bin c s mt sp
nh hn s mt nga, th A, B, C l nhm bin c y v P(B)=P(C). Suy ra
P(B) = [1- P(A)]: 2.
2. a)
(n 1)! 2 2
n!
n
10
3. a) 7
10
7!
b) 7
10
b)
(n 1)! 2 (n 2)! 2 2
2
n!
n n(n 1)
C107 7!
c)
107
106
d) 7
10
10 95
e)
107
4. p s: a) 1/7
b)1/42
c) 2/7
d) 5/21.
Hng dn gii:
S cc trng hp duy nht ng kh nng l s cch sp c th t 7 cun sch,
nn n = 7! .
a) C nh sch Ton v tr gia ( tc l v tr th 4 t bn tri qua), ri sp 6
cun cn li ngu nhin vo 6 v tr xung quanh, vy m = 6! cch. Xc sut cn
tm: 1/7.
b) Coi Ton - L - Ha theo th t ghp thnh 1 cun sch. Xp vi 4 cun
cn li, coi nh l xp 5 cun ty th m = 5!. Xc sut cn tm 1/42.
c) Trng hp 1 l sch Vn lun ngay bn tri sch Nhc. Ta c th coi 2 sch
ny ghp li nh l 1 cun. Vy l xp 5 cun cn li vi cun ghp ny nh l 6
cun v xp mt cch ty th s cch xp l m1 = 6!.
Trng hp th 2 ngc li, sch Nhc nm bn tri sch Vn, tng t ta cng
c m2=6! v m = m1+m2 = 2.(6!) nn xc sut cn tm l 2/7.
d) Trng hp 1: Xp Vn - Sch khc - Nhc theo ng th t. C 5 cch chn
cun sch xen gia Vn v Nhc. Sau coi 3 cun ny ghp thnh 1 cun, xp
vi 4 sch cn li theo th t ty th m1 = 5.(5!).
Trng hp 2: Xp Nhc - Sch khc - Vn theo th t .
Tng t th m2 = 5.(5!).
m = m1 + m2 = 10.(5!). Suy ra xc sut cn tm l 5/21.
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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5. HD:
C51.C31.C71
a)
C153
6. p s:
7. HD:
a)
C32 .C121
b)
C153
a) 0,018144
b) 1/5
b)
c) 1/2
4
C20
.C163 .C135 .C82 .C62 .C44
620
9. Hng dn gii:
a) S cch xp ngu nhin 12 ngi ln 3 toa l n = 312.
S cch xp mi toa c 4 ngi l m = C412.C48 .
Xc sut cn tm:
C124 C84
.
312
C128 C44
b) Tng t cu a), xc sut cn tm l 12 .
3
c) tm m, tin hnh cc bc: xp toa cho hnh khch A,B; sau xp toa cho
hnh khch C ri xp cho nhng ngi cn li. S d ng quy tc nhn.
Xc sut cn tm:
3.2.39 2
.
312
9
10. p s: 5/9.
Gi thi im ngi th nht n
ch h n l 8 gi + x pht.
Gi thi im ngi th hai n ch
h n l 8 gi + y pht; 0 x,y 60.
Min cc trng hp duy nht ng
kh nng l G =[0; 60][0; 60].
Theo gi thit, 2 ngi gp nhau khi
| x y| 20 -20 x-y 20
y x+ 20 v y x 20.
11. HD: a) Din tch hnh trn Din tch tam gic.
12. p s: .
b) 0.
Cc nh l xc sut
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15.
16.
98
98
88
S: Mc ni tip:
b) 1/40
n
(1-pi ) .
i1
c) 2/3.
n
Mc song song: 1 pi
i1
17.
Hng dn gii:
Gi Ai l bin c linh kin Li b hng, i = 1,2,3.
Gi B l bin c mch ngng hot ng trong khong thi gian T.
Ta thy
B = A1 + A2A3. Theo cng thc xc sut th:
P(B) = P(A1 + A2A3)
= P(A1) + P(A2A3 ) - P(A1A2A3 )
= P(A1) + P(A2)P(A3) - P(A1)P(A2)P(A3) (do cc Ai c lp ton th)
= 0,1 + 0,2 . 0,3 - 0,1 . 0,2 . 0,3 = 0,154.
18.
19.
S: 0,6875.
20.
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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21.
22.
p s: 0,18069.
23.
p s: 15.
Gi n l s hc sinh c chn. Gi A l bin c c t nht 1 hc sinh trong b
cn th. Bi ton yu cu tm n P(A) 90%.
Do P(A)=1XS khng c hc sinh no b cn th =1C0n(0,15)0(0,85)n = 1-(0,85)n,
nn YCBT tr thnh tm n (0,85)n 0,1 ; suy ra n (ln 0,1) : (ln 0,85).
24.
p s: 45 hoc 46.
25.
Hng dn gii:
Trc tin chng ta xem xt ti mi h trng cy:
Gi A1 l bin c cy trng sau t 1 sng.
Nu cy cht v phi trng thay vo h 1 cy khc, khi ta gi A 2 l bin c
cy trng ln sau sng.
Gi B l bin c sau 2 t trng cy c 1 cy sng trong h. B = A1 + A1 A2 .
P(B) = P(A1) + P( A1 ).P(A2| A1 ) = 0,8 + 0,2. 0,8 = 0,96 .
a) Bi ton c dng Becnoulli vi n =20, p = 0,96 , q = 0,06 , k1= 18, k2 = 20 .
18
2
19
19
1
20
20
Xc sut cn tm : C18
20 (0,96) (0, 04) C20 (0,96) (0, 04) +C20 (0,96)
b) Dng cng thc tm c k0 = 20.
26.
1 1 1
1 1
4
4 7 .... .
. ( tng cp s nhn v hn)
2 2 2
2 1 1 7
23
2
1
v .
7
7
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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4) .
5)
6).
7)..
8) A thng sau 12 vn chi: ngha l trong 11 vn u tin A thng 4, B thng 7;
v vn th 12 A thng.
P8 C114 (0,3)4 (0,7)7 (0,3) C114 (0,3)5 (0,7)7
Vy xc sut cn tm:
7
C
k 0
4
4 k
(0,3)5 (0, 7) k
P(B)
P( A ) P( A A ) P( A A A ) P( A
i
i 1
1
4
= 4* C42
i j
i j k
A2 A3 A4 )
11
1 1 1 1 1 11
1 1 1
C43
1
43
4 3 2 4 3 21
2! 3! 4!
b) Gi C l bin c ch c 1 th n ng a ch .
C = A1 A2 A2 A3 A1 A2 A2 A3 .......... ( n trng hp).
1
4
1 1
1
] =
2! 3!
3
( tham kho) Gi thit ngi chi chn cnh ca A, v ngi dn chng trnh
chn m cnh ca B. Ta gi thit thm l ngi dn chng trnh KHNG
thc s chn cnh ca B mt cch ngu nhin ( tc l ngi dn chng trnh c
chn cnh ca khng c qu). Khi xc sut cnh ca C c gii thng s l
2/3, nn ngi chi nn i la chn.
30.
a) Hng dn:
100
99
1
C19700
C19700
.C300
0,5562
100
C20000
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
Trang 10
KQ
10
C
k 8
k
10
0,5562k (1 0,5562)10k
b) Xc sut cn tm l:
5
3
.90% .80% 86, 25%.
8
8
5
.90%
P(H1 ).P(A/H1 ) 8
15
P(H1|A) =
=
=
P(A)
86,25% 23
n 1
6n
34.
95% 3%
0,3654
95% 3% 5% 99%
35.
p s: a) 4/20
36.
b) 1/11
c) 1/26
d) 13/275.
45%.50%
P(A 2 )P(F|A 2 )
=
0,3409 .
66%
P(F)
c) Gi n l s sn phm cn mua.
Xc sut gp t nht mt sn phm khng phi loi A l 1 (0.66)n .
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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Theo gi thit 1 (0.66)n > 98% , suy ra n > [ln 0.02 : ln 0.66 ] 9,415.
Ta ly gi tr n ti thiu l 10.
37.
Cch 1:
Gi F1 l bin c ln u ngi sn xut ra 8 sn phm th c 2 ph phm.
Gi F2 l bin c ln sau ngi sn xut ra 8 sn phm th c 2 ph phm.
1 2
6
2
.C8 0,9 0,1
3
P1
P(CN1/F1)= P(CN2/F1) =
2 2
1 2
6
2
6
2
.C8 0,9 0,1 C8 0,8 0, 2
3
3
1 2
6
2
.C8 0,8 0, 2
3
P2
P(CN3/F1) =
2 2
1 2
6
2
6
2
.C8 0,9 0,1 C8 0,8 0, 2
3
3
6
2
6
2
2
P(F2/F1) = 2 P1 C8 0,9 0,1 P2 C82 0,8 0, 2
Cch 2:
2 2
1
6
2 2
6
2 2
. C8 0,9 0,1 . C82 0,8 0, 2
3
3
2 2
1
6
2
6
2
.C8 0,9 0,1 C82 0,8 0, 2
3
3
75%
a) 1 2
5
3
3
1
P(C2 )
P(C1 ).P(C2 |C1 )+P(V1 ).P(C2 |V1 )
4
. .
8 5 8 3
3 2
.
P(V1.V2 )
P(V1 ).P(V2 |V1 )
1
8
3
P
V
|V
50%
b) 1 2
5
2
3
2
P(V2 )
P(C1 ).P(V2 |C1 )+P(V1 ).P(V2 |V1 )
2
. .
8 5 8 3
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
P(A/B) = 1/3
Trang 12
P(A/B) =
P(A).P(B|A)
p.1
1
=
P(A).P(B|A)+P(A).P(B|A) p.1 (1 p ). 1 3
2
1
C
2
i
n
1
n 1
2 n2
n2 2
n 1 1
1 Cn1
Cn
... Cn . Cn .
n
n
n
n
k
nk
nk Cn1 n 1 Cn2 n 2 ... Cnn 2 .2k Cnn 1
k
41.
42.
..
43.
P(F/A1) = 0
0 con
0
1 con
20
2 con
60
3 con
60
Cc nh l xc sut
4 con
40
5 con
25
Tng
205
Trang 13
P(H/B1) = P(F/A1) = 0
P( H )
44.
0
20
60
60
40
25
.0
.0
.0, 25
.0,375
.0,375
.0,3125 =0,2942
205
205
205
205
205
205
A2 bin c ly hp 2
F1 bin c ly c bi trng ln 1;
F2 bin c ly c bi trng ln 2
1 4 1 5
49
. .
2 10 2 12 120
Cch 1:
P(F1F2) = P(A1).P(F1F2/A1) + P(A2).P(F1F2/A2) =
P( F2 / F1 )
1 4 4 1 5 5 1201
. . . .
2 10 10 2 12 12 7200
P( F2 F1 ) 1201/ 7200
= 0,4085
P( F1 )
49 /120
Cch 2:
P(A1/F1) =
P A1 .P F1 / A1
24
P( F1 )
49
P(F2/F1) =
45.
P(A2/F1) =
P A 2 .P F1 / A 2 25
P( F1 )
49
24 4 25 5
. . = 0,4085
49 10 49 12
..
----------------------------------------------------
BI TP
Cc nh l xc sut
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