Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Duterte and the

South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 9, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1 Do you foresee the Philippines election results as changing the dynamic of the
South China Sea dispute?
ANSWER: Yes I do. The Arbitral Tribunal will not resolve all the issues raised by the
Philippines. The Philippines will likely gain in some areas such as the designation of
some features as rocks or low tide elevations. This mears that the unresolved issues
will remain on the table. A new president is likely to break the present impasse by
engaging more with China for economic benefit and to reach some sort of
agreement on outstanding issues.
Q2. How important is the Philippine-U.S. relation to American foreign policy in Asia?
ANSWER: Most Southeast Asian and East Asian states value the US role in balancing
China. In light of China's construction of artificial islands with military implications, a
continued US presence in the immediate area would be viewed as stabilising. Having
said this,regional states do not want the US to take precipitous action that upsets
regional stability. Also, regional states also seek constant reassurance that the US
will stay engaged and not get distracted by events in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Q3. Would a Duterte victory throw up any problems for this relationship?
ANSWER: Duterte is unlikely to establish an intimacy in relations with the US especially as the US will have a new president in office in January next year - that
was the hallmark of the Aquino Administration and Secretary del Rosario. Duterte is
likely to stand up to China on the South China Sea and seek to engage China at the
same time. This will create tensions in US-Philippines relationship due to cross
cutting pressure from China. If China engages with the Philippines and acts
cautiously over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Reef this will undercut the
US position somewhat.
Q4. Is China going to be concerned by this election?
ANSWER: Chinese diplomats that I have spoken with see the elections as an
opportunity that will lead to re-engagement on both sides. China will play the long
game and entice the new president into resuming high-level contact. China does not
expect to undermine the bilateral Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement
between Manila and Washington so much as to slowly subvert it by offering

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inducements to the new president. After all the Arbitral Tribunal will have made its
determination and it is unlikely a new president will take further legal action against
China.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Philippines: Duterte and the South China Sea,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 9, 2016. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Rodrigo Duterte and

the South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 11, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1. We request your assessment of Duterte's electoral victory and what it means for
the South China Sea. There is now no doubt he has won.
ANSWER The presumed election of Rodrigo Duterte as the next president of the
Philippines will bring about a period of uncertainty and flux in the Philippines
relations with China and the United States. Duterte will take office in late June
around the time the Arbitral Tribunal is likely to hand down its determination of the
case brought by President Aquino against China. The Tribunals decision will not
resolve all the issues in dispute between Manila and Beijing and thus opens up the
possibility of resuming diplomatic talks to address these issues. China likely will seize
on this opportunity to offer inducements to the new Administration to cooperate
with Beijing. A sub-text of Chinas approach is to convince Duterte that he has more
to gain by working with China than the United States on disputes in the South China
Sea. Dutertes play on populism and nationalism during the election campaign may
slow defence cooperation with the United States.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Philippines: Rodrigo Duterte and the South
China Sea, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 11, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.