Arbol de Decisiones

For Evaluation Only
EJERCICIO 5.12
Clarkson Products, Inc., de Clarkson, Nueva York, tiene la posibilidad de (a) proce
televisin estereofnica de la ms alta calidad, de la cual acaba de completar la prue
de valor complete el estudio. Si Ed Lusk, vicepresidente de operaciones, procede co
esperar que las ventas lleguen a 100,000 unidades a $550 cada una, con una pro
obstante, si utiliza al equipo de anlisis de valor (opcin b), la empresa espera ven
probabilidad de .7 y una de .3 para 70,000 unidades a $750. El costo del anlisis d
Cul de las dos alternativas tiene el valor monetario e
A. proceder de inmediato con la produccin de u

B. hacer que el equipo de anlisis de valor comp
COSTOS
TOTAL
VENTAS A
0.6
0.4
55000000
41250000
0
0
55000000
41250000
VENTAS B
0.7
56250000
100000
56150000
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3/319310879.xlsxwww.TreePlan.com
For Evaluation Only
Razonamiento: Se recomienda hacer el analisis de Valor, hacer

que el equipo de anlisis de valor complete el estudio, esto nos
generara un Valor Monetario Esperado mas Alto (55025000).

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e la posibilidad de (a) proceder de inmediato con la produccin de una nueva

acaba de completar la prueba del prototipo o, (b) hacer que el equipo de anlisis
de operaciones, procede con el prototipo existente (opcin a), la empresa puede
550 cada una, con una probabilidad de .6 y una de .4 para 75,000 a $550. No
n b), la empresa espera ventas por 75,000 unidades a $750 cada una, con una
750. El costo del anlisis de valor es de $100,000 si slo se usa en la opcin b.
tiene el valor monetario esperado (VME) ms alto?
la produccin de una nueva televisin estereofnica de la ms alta calidad

lisis de valor complete el
VENTAS B
0.3
52500000
100000
52400000
Alternative A
0
49500000
Alternative B
55025000
0
55025000
Alternative C
0

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alisis de Valor, hacer

e el estudio, esto nos
as Alto (55025000).

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la ms alta calidad, de la cual acaba de completar
0.6
Outcome 4
0
0
55000000
0.4
Outcome 5
0
0
41250000
0.7
Outcome 6
0
0
56150000
0.3
Outcome 7
0
0
52400000

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ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
0T
1T
1T
2T
2T

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NS
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
3
2
2
1
4
6
2
5
7
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

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Row
Col
Mark
13
4
14
1
5
5
22
2
7
12
17
5
9
9
9
9

5.14 El gerente de materiales de Ritz Products, Bruce Elwell, debe determinar si hace o compra un
por producir. Se espera fabricar 1 milln de unidades durante el ciclo de vida. Si el producto se f
hacer son de un total de 1 milln de dlares con una probabilidad de 0.4 de que el producto ser s
la empresa deber reevaluar la decisin. Si la decisin se reevala, la decisin final puede ser gas
La probabilidad de xito, la segunda vez que se tome la decisin de hacer, es de 0.9. Si la decis
cundo ocurra la compra, a juicio de Elwell el costo que Ritz debe pagar por cada semiconductor
del vendedor.
SOLUCIN
0.4
FUNCIONA
1,000,000
HACER
1,690,000
INTENTAR DE NU
0.6
FALLA
1
2
2,150,000
1,500,000
COMPRAR
COMPRAR
1,500,000
a) Supongamos que Ritz debe tener el semiconductor (parar o proceder sin l no

decisin a tomar? se busca reducir los constos, por eso, la mejor decisin sera comprar
en esta decisin es de $1,500,000.
b) Qu criterio se us para tomar esta decisin? en este caso se busca el menor c

esta decisin es del Valor monetario esperado (VME), costo mnimo.
c) Qu es lo peor que le ocurrira a Ritz como resultado de esta decisin en particular?

que puede suceder es que Ritz termine por comprar los semiconductores con un gasto de $3,500,0
los semiconductores y slo gasten $1,000,000.
c) Qu es lo peor que le ocurrira a Ritz como resultado de esta decisin en particular?

que puede suceder es que Ritz termine por comprar los semiconductores con un gasto de $3,500,0
los semiconductores y slo gasten $1,000,000.
ar si hace o compra un nuevo semiconductor para la televisin de pulsera que la empresa est
da. Si el producto se fabrica, los costos totales de preparacin y produccin de la decisin de
que el producto ser satisfactorio y de 0.6 de que no lo ser. Si el producto no es satisfactorio,
n final puede ser gastar otro milln de dlares en el rediseo del semiconductor o comprarlo.
r, es de 0.9. Si la decisin de hacer vuelvea fallar, la empresa deber comprar. Sin importar
r cada semiconductor que compre es de $0.50 ms 1 milln de dlares del costo de desarrollo
del vendedor.
OLUCIN:
1,000,000
0.9
FUNCIONA
2,000,000
INTENTAR DE NUEVO
2,150,000
2,000,000
0.1
FALLA
3,500,000
3,500,000
COMPRAR
2,500,000
2,500,000
1,500,000
proceder sin l no son alternativas viables), Cul es la mejor

ecisin sera comprar los semiconductores. La recuperacin esperada
se busca el menor costo, entonces el criterio que se uso para tomar
isin en particular? Qu es lo mejor que le puede suceder? Lo peor

n un gasto de $3,500,000. Lo mejor que puede ocurrir es que ellos hagan
ARRANNQUE
1,000,000
ARRANQUE
REDISEO
TOTAL
1,000,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
ARRANQUE
REDISEO
DESARROLLO DE VENDEDOR
PIEZAS COMPRADAS (1,000,000*0.50)
TOTAL
1,000,000
1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
3,500,000
ARRANQUE
TOTAL
1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
2,500,000
TOTAL
1,000,000
500,000
1,500,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1T
1D
4E
4T
5T
5T
NS
S1
S2
2
2
0
1
3
0
2
4
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
5
7
0
0
0
0
6
8
0
0
0
S3
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
7
22
1
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
13
9
17
7
12
9
9
13
13
17
17
5.16 Use los datos del problema resuelto 5.1 para examinar qu p
a $64,000 al aplicar un fsforo muy costoso a la pantalla, con un co
Cules son los pagos y qu rama tiene el mayor VME?
DATOS DEL EJERCICIO 5.1
VME =
Ventas 59,000 a $ 15
Costo de manufac. 100000
Costo de diseo
###
Rendimiento 59
0.9
DISEO A
Rendimiento 64
0.1
Ventas 64,000 a $ 15
Costo de diseo
Rendimiento 64
0.8
Ventas 64,000 a $ 15
Costo de diseo
DISEO B
VME=
###
Rendimiento 59
0.2
Ventas 59,000 a $ 15
Costo de diseo
ra examinar qu pasa con las decisiones si Sarah King aumenta los rendimientos de $59,000
pantalla, con un costo agregado de $250,000. Prepare el rbol de decisin modificado.
or VME?
entas 59,000 a $ 150

de manufac. 100000 a $ 75
Costo de diseo
entas 64,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
entas 64,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
entas 59,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
S/. 8,850,000.00
S/. 7,500,000.00
S/. 1,000,000.00
S/.
350,000.00
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
9,600,000.00
7,500,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,100,000.00
S/. 9,600,000.00
S/. 7,500,000.00
S/. 1,350,000.00
S/.
750,000.00
S/. 8,850,000.00
S/. 7,500,000.00
S/. 1,350,000.00
S/.
-
Cantidad
Precio
59000 S/. 150.00
100000 S/.
75.00
Cantidad
Precio
64000 S/. 150.00
100000 S/.
75.00
Cantidad
Precio
64000 S/. 150.00
100000 S/.
75.00
Cantidad
Precio
59000 S/. 150.00
100000 S/.
75.00
ntos de $59,000
modificado.
VME =
S/.
Rendimiento 59
875,000.00
0.9
DISEO A
Rendimiento 64
0.1
DISEO B
Rendimiento 64
0.8
VME=
S/.
700,000.00
Rendimiento 59
0.2
RAZONAMIENTO
Los pagos para el diseo A es de s/. 875,000.00 y del diseo B es de s/. 700,000.00
El diseo que tiene un mayor VME es del diseo B con un pago de s/. 700,000.00
Ventas 64000 a $ 150

Costo de manufac. 100000 a $ 75
Costo de diseo
Costo agregado
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
9,600,000.00
7,500,000.00
1,000,000.00
250,000.00
850,000.00
Ventas 64,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
9,600,000.00
7,500,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,100,000.00
Ventas 64,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
9,600,000.00
7,500,000.00
1,350,000.00
750,000.00
Ventas 64,000 a $ 150

Costo de diseo
Costo agregado
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
9,600,000.00
7,500,000.00
1,350,000.00
250,000.00
500,000.00
diseo B es de s/. 700,000.00

n un pago de s/. 700,000.00
Cantidad
64000
100000
Cantidad
64000
100000
Cantidad
64000
100000
Cantidad
64000
100000
Precio
S/. 150.00
S/.
75.00
Precio
S/. 150.00
S/.
75.00
Precio
S/. 150.00
S/.
75.00
Precio
S/. 150.00
S/.
75.00
DEMANDA DIARIA 500

PRODUCCION 1.30
VENTA BE 2.5
DEFECTUOSO - DESECHADOS
PERIODO DE EVALUACION 300 DIAS
DEMANDA
500
1.3
2.5
300
150,000.00
PROB no defec
0.8 80% de que
90 de 100
K1
PROB no defec
0.2 20% de que
70 de 100
K2
PROB no defec
0.85 85% de que
90 de 100
K2
PROB no defectuoso
0.15 15% de que
75 de 100
PROB no defec
0.9 90% de que
95 de 100
K3
PROB no defec
0.1 10% de que
80 de 100
DEMANDA TOTAL
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
COSTO DE DISEO
NETO
150,000.00
0.90
135,000.00
337,500.00 (+)
195,000.00 (-)
100,000.00 (-)
42,500.00
DEMANDA TOTAL
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
COSTO DE DISEO
PERDIDA NETA
150,000.00
0.70
105,000.00
262,500.00 (+)
195,000.00 (-)
100,000.00 (-)
-32,500.00
DEMANDA TOTAL
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
COSTO DE DISEO
NETO
150,000.00
0.90
135,000.00
337,500.00 (+)
195,000.00 (-)
130,000.00 (-)
12,500.00
DEMANDA TOTAL
150,000.00
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
0.75
112,500.00
281,250.00 (+)
195,000.00 (-)
COSTO DE DISEO
PERDIDA NETA
130,000.00 (-)
-43,750.00
DEMANDA TOTAL
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
150,000.00
0.95
142,500.00
356,250.00 (+)
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
COSTO DE DISEO
PERDIDA NETA
195,000.00 (-)
180,000.00 (-)
-18,750.00
DEMANDA TOTAL
90 DE 100
DEMANDA ESPERADA
VENTA TOTAL
COSTO DE PRODUCCION
COSTO DE DISEO
PERDIDA NETA
150,000.00
0.80
120,000.00
300,000.00 (+)
195,000.00 (-)
180,000.00 (-)
-75,000.00
CALCULO DEL VALOR MONETARIO ESPERADO

VME(K1)=
34000 +
-6500
VME(K1)= 27,500.00
VME(K2)=
VME(K2)=
VME(K3)=
10625 +
-6562.5
4,062.50
-16875 +
-7500
VME(K3)= -24,375.00
RAZOMANIENTO: LA ESTRUCTURACIONDE UN ARBOL
DE DECISION PROPORCIONA OBJETIVIDAD Y ANALISIS
DE DECISION PROPORCIONA OBJETIVIDAD Y ANALISIS

PROFUNDOEN LA DECISION DE REDISEAR LAS
COCINAS EN McBURGER, PRESENTANDO LOS DATOS
ENCESARIOS, PROBABILIDADES Y DEMAS DETALLES
PARA EL CALCULO DE UNA BUENA DECISION A TOMAR

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For Evaluation Only

A. proceder de inmediato con la produccin de u

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Razonamiento: Se recomienda hacer el analisis de Valor, hacer

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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e la posibilidad de (a) proceder de inmediato con la produccin de una nueva

la produccin de una nueva televisin estereofnica de la ms alta calidad

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alisis de Valor, hacer

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only