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Valuation Date:
Share Price on Valuation Date:
Diluted Shares Outstanding
1/1/2013
$25.00
500.0
2011A
$5,700.0
2012A
$6,000.0
2013P
$6,600.0
10.0%
$2,000.0
$2,080.0
$2,150.0
$2,310.0
35.0%
$2,564.1
35.0%
$2,871.8
35.0%
$3,245.1
35.0%
$3,667.0
35.0%
EBIT
EBIT Margin (%)
1,700.0
1,750.0
1,800.0
$1,980.0
30.0%
$2,197.8
30.0%
$2,461.5
30.0%
$2,781.5
30.0%
$3,143.1
30.0%
$300.0
$330.0
$350.0
$369.6
5.6%
$388.3
5.3%
$336.4
4.1%
$435.8
4.7%
$461.0
4.4%
Cash
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Prepaid Expenses
2010A
$700.0
1,100.0
900.0
50.0
2011A
$1,000.0
1,250.0
925.0
63.0
2012A
$1,500.0
1,350.0
935.0
75.0
2013P
1,500.0
1,485.0
949.0
89.7
2017P
1,500.0
2,357.4
1,319.3
160.4
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
$930.0
90.0
$960.0
88.0
$1,000.0
93.0
$1,015.0
102.3
$1,070.8
113.6
$1,168.3
127.2
$1,283.9
143.7
$1,411.0
162.4
Debt
2,300.0
4,750.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
455.0
488.0
535.0
588.5
653.2
731.6
826.7
934.2
10.0%
1.5%
19.6%
1.5%
10.0%
10.0%
11.0%
5.5%
18.7%
5.5%
11.0%
11.0%
12.0%
9.1%
15.6%
9.1%
12.0%
12.0%
13.0%
9.9%
13.0%
9.9%
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
9.9%
15.3%
9.9%
13.0%
13.0%
Revenue
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
2017P
$10,477.1
13.0%
Capital Expenditures
Accounts Receivable Growth (%)
Inventories Growth (%)
Prepaid Expenses Growth (%)
Accounts Payable Growth (%)
Accrued Expenses Growth (%)
Capital Expenditures Growth (%)
2011A
2012A
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method:
Long term growth rate
WACC
Free cash flow (t+1)
Terminal Value
Present Value of Terminal Value
4.0%
12.0%
2,052.8
25,706.3
###
$25.00
500.0
5.2%
40.0%
3.1%
15.0%
$4,250.0
12,500.0
$16,750.0
Debt Weighting
Equity Weighting
25.4%
74.6%
WACC =
12.0%
$20,340.1
2,750.0
$17,590.1
500.0
$35.18
Err:509
Q: If the stock is trading at $25.00 a share and you believe that your DCF analysis is accurate, would you buy or sell stock in this company? Why?
A: Buy, because according to intrisic valuation, stock should actually be valued at $29.99 but market value is $25.00. Therefore, the stock is "cheap."
1/1/2013
$25.00
500.0
Project
2010A
$5,300.0
2011A
$5,700.0
2012A
$6,000.0
2013P
$6,600.0
10.0%
$2,000.0
$2,080.0
$2,150.0
$2,310.0
35.0%
EBIT
EBIT Margin (%)
1,700.0
1,750.0
1,800.0
$1,980.0
30.0%
$300.0
$330.0
$350.0
$369.6
5.6%
Revenue
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Project
Cash
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Prepaid Expenses
2010A
$700.0
1,100.0
900.0
50.0
2011A
$1,000.0
1,250.0
925.0
63.0
2012A
$1,500.0
1,350.0
935.0
75.0
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
$930.0
90.0
$960.0
88.0
$1,000.0
93.0
$1,015.0
102.3
Debt
2,300.0
4,750.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
455.0
488.0
535.0
588.5
2013P
1,500.0
1,485.0
949.0
89.7
10.0%
1.5%
19.6%
1.5%
10.0%
10.0%
Project
2010A
Period
2011A
2012A
2013P
1
Total Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
Tax rate
EBIAT
Depreciation & Amortization
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Prepaid expenses
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Capital expenditures
Unlevered free cash flows
Discount Rate (WACC)
Present value of free cash flows
Sum of present values of FCFs
$6,600.0
2,310.0
1,980.0
40.0%
$1,188.0
369.6
(135.0)
(14.0)
(14.7)
15.0
9.3
(53.5)
$1,364.7
12.0%
$1,218.6
$5,744.3
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method:
Long term growth rate
WACC
Free cash flow (t+1)
Terminal Value
Present Value of Terminal Value
4.0%
12.0%
2,052.8
25,706.3
###
WACC
Share Price
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate
After-tax Cost of Debt
Cost of Equity
$25.00
500.0
5.2%
40.0%
3.1%
15.0%
$4,250.0
12,500.0
$16,750.0
Debt Weighting
Equity Weighting
25.4%
74.6%
WACC =
12.0%
$20,340.1
2,750.0
$17,590.1
500.0
$35.18
Q: If the stock is trading at $25.00 a share and you believe that your DCF analysis is accurate, would you b
A: Buy, because according to intrisic valuation, stock should actually be valued at $29.99 but market value
2017P
$10,477.1
13.0%
$2,564.1
35.0%
$2,871.8
35.0%
$3,245.1
35.0%
$3,667.0
35.0%
$2,197.8
30.0%
$2,461.5
30.0%
$2,781.5
30.0%
$3,143.1
30.0%
$388.3
5.3%
$336.4
4.1%
$435.8
4.7%
$461.0
4.4%
2017P
1,500.0
2,357.4
1,319.3
160.4
$1,070.8
113.6
$1,168.3
127.2
$1,283.9
143.7
$1,411.0
162.4
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
4,250.0
653.2
731.6
826.7
934.2
11.0%
5.5%
18.7%
5.5%
11.0%
11.0%
12.0%
9.1%
15.6%
9.1%
12.0%
12.0%
13.0%
9.9%
13.0%
9.9%
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
9.9%
15.3%
9.9%
13.0%
13.0%
2017P
5
$7,326.0
2,564.1
2,197.8
40.0%
$1,318.7
388.3
(163.4)
(52.2)
(16.8)
55.8
11.3
(64.7)
$1,477.0
12.0%
$1,177.7
$8,205.1
2,871.8
2,461.5
40.0%
$1,476.9
336.4
(197.8)
(91.1)
(16.6)
97.4
13.6
(78.4)
$1,540.5
12.0%
$1,096.9
$9,271.8
3,245.1
2,781.5
40.0%
$1,668.9
435.8
(240.0)
(108.1)
(16.0)
115.7
16.5
(95.1)
$1,777.6
12.0%
$1,130.3
$10,477.1
3,667.0
3,143.1
40.0%
$1,885.9
461.0
(271.2)
(118.8)
(21.3)
127.1
18.7
(107.5)
$1,973.9
12.0%
$1,120.7