year trend(t) Milk production estimate(y) estimated y ratio(actual/estimated)

1998 1 72128 71436 1.00968699255277

1999 2 75424 74609.727272727 1.01091376094026
2000 3 78286 77783.454545455 1.00646082714482
2001 4 80607 80957.181818182 0.995674481123018
2002 5 84406 84130.909090909 1.00326979598894
2003 6 86159 87304.636363636 0.986877714502302
2004 7 88082 90478.363636364 0.973514511756703
2005 8 92484 93652.090909091 0.987527337641347
2006 9 97066 96825.818181818 1.00248055552426
2007 10 100869 99999.545454546 1.00869458497539
2008 11 104840 103173.27272727 1.01615464188224
2009 12 106347 106347 1
2010 13 109520.727272727
2011 14 112694.454545455 avg of ratio 1.000104600336
2012 15 115868.181818182
2013 16 119041.909090909
2014 17 122215.636363636
2015 18 125389.363636364
2016 19 128563.090909091

120000

100000

80000

60000 Milk producti

estimated y
40000

20000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
 avg*old forecast

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.993916925
R Square 0.987870853
106358.123931933 Adjusted R Square 0.98652317
109532.183177599 Standard Error 1229.446775
112706.242423266 Observations 11
115880.301668932
119054.360914599 ANOVA
122228.420160265 df SS MS F
125402.479405931 Regression 1 1107979928.182 1107979928 733.0143
128576.538651598 Residual 9 13603854.36364 1511539.37
Total 10 1121583782.545

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 68262.27273 795.0460889552 85.8595164 2E-14
X Variable 1 3173.727273 117.2231505889 27.0742362 6.197E-10

Milk production estimate(y)

estimated y

9 10 11
Significance F
6.197E-10

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

66463.7535 70060.7919 66463.753526 70060.791928
2908.55008 3438.90446 2908.5500835 3438.9044619
year trend(t) Milk production estimate(y) log y antilog y
1998 1 72128 4.85810389 72128
1999 2 75424 4.8775095608 75424
2000 3 78286 4.8936841035 78286
2001 4 80607 4.9063727581 80607
2002 5 84406 4.9263733195 84406
2003 6 86159 4.9353006497 86159
2004 7 88082 4.9448871672 88082
2005 8 92484 4.966066605 92484
2006 9 97066 4.9870671331 97066
2007 10 100869 5.0037577153 100869
2008 11 104840 5.0205270123 104840
2009 12 106347 5.0327950209 107843.8
2010 13 109520.7273 5.0485691924 111832.8
2011 14 112694.4545 5.0643433639 115969.4
2012 15 115868.1818 5.0801175353 120259
2013 16 119041.9091 5.0958917068 124707.3
2014 17 122215.6364 5.1116658782 129320.1
2015 18 125389.3636 5.1274400497 134103.5
2016 19 128563.0909 5.1432142211 139063.8
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99716736
R Square 0.99434275
Adjusted R Squar 0.99371416
Standard Error 0.00415965
Observations 11

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0273706933481 0.027371 1581.878 1.9976184E-11
Residual 9 0.0001557239249 1.73E-05
Total 10 0.027526417273

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 4.84350496 0.0026899176784 1800.615 2.559E-26 4.837419947 4.84958998
X Variable 1 0.01577417 0.0003966067244 39.77283 2E-11 0.01487698471 0.01667136
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
4.837419947 4.84958998
0.014876985 0.016671358
Milk production estimate(y) moving avg 3 diff square Milk production estimate(y)
72128 72128
75424 75424
78286 78286
8060775279.33333333 5327.667 28384032.11 80607
84406 78105.66666667 6300.333 39694200.11 84406
86159 81099.66666667 5059.333 25596853.78 86159

88082 83724 4358 18992164 88082

92484 86215.66666667 6268.333 39292002.78 92484
97066 88908.33333333 8157.667 66547525.44 97066
100869 92544 8325 69305625 100869
104840 96806.33333333 8033.667 64539800.11 104840

sum 352352203
sum/8 44044025.42
RMSE 6636.567292
moving 5 diff square Milk production estimate(y) moving 7 diff square
72128
75424
78286
80607
84406
78170.2 7988.8 63820925.44 86159
80976.4 7105.6 50489551.36 88082
83508 8976 80568576 9248480727.43 11756.57 138216972
86347.6 10718.4 114884098.56 97066 83635.43 13430.57 180380249
89639.4 11229.6 126103916.16 100869 86727.14 14141.86 199992123
92932 11908 141800464 104840 89953.29 14886.71 221614262

sum 577667531.52 sum 740203606

sum/6 96277921.92 sum/4 185050902
RMSE 9812.1313648 RMSE 13603.34156