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NGHI~N C(JU & PHAT TRIEN
Tic" lily "~J(Jy CO kh,ing ho6ng 1- " l~ "'.L/'.\J ".."" '1;.f ---, I
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cac ngfln h8nli1
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l - ti~n lI~t kiem,
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I'HA T TRII-:N KINH TI-: Th..n~ \Iliili H"i 211112
TONG KEy & Dl/ BAo
Viet N BID
.-
Gs. NGUVEN THII;;N NHAN
26 ,
PHA T TI{II,N
...'
KINH TI-: Th"nl: (;ienl: 2(1113
TONG
-, KET & Dt! BAO
yen tam, vI t6c dQ tang GDP blnh quan hang nam luon tu T6ng d.1u tu'trl:tc tie'p thoi ky nay la 11,70 1 ty USP, t6ng
7% de'n &%. Tuy nhien, chi tieu GDP m{ji phan anh dffu ra d.1u tu' trl:tc tie'p cua Thai Lan ra nu'oc ngoai la 2,857 ti
cua nlo-nkinh te' ma chJja dlo-c~p de'n dffu vao. Dffu vao USD, do v~y t6ng d.1u tu trl!c tie'p thu.1n la 8,844 ti USD
chinh la dffu tJj. (Bang 4, 1).
Trong thoi ky 1991 -1996, dffu tJj cua Thai Lan ra't Trong khi d6, t6ng d.1u tu'tai chinh thu.1n (c6 ph.1n,
cao, hang nam chie'm blnh quan 40% GDP (Bang 4.1). trai phie'u) la 16.4 ti USD. va t6ng vay ngAn h~n thu.1n la
Tang trJjdng cao, ma chi phi tang trJjdng thf{p thl m{ji blo-n 60,04 ti USD. Nhu' v~Y. trong t6ng s6 v6n nu'oc ngoai
vi1ng. Tang trJjdng cao dl!a tren hi~u qua kinh te' cao cua thu.1n da d6 vao Thai Lan thoi ky 1991 -19961a 85,293 ti
san xuf{t kinh doanh m{ji lau blo-n.Blnh quan tu 1991 t{ji USD thl d.1u tu' trl!c tie'p chi chie'm 10.36% (8.844 ti
1996, h~ s6 ICOR cua kinh te'Thai Lap la 5,22 (Bang USD), d.flu tu' gian tie'p 19,23% (16,404 ti USD) va tin
4.1). Tuc la phai dffu tJj 5,22 Baht thl GDP m{ji tang 1 dl;lng, vay ngAn h~n toi 70.4% (60,045 ti USD) (Bang
Baht. 4.1).
.cac doanh nghi<;:p kinh doanh ngay cang kern Vi~c si1 dl,lng de'n gfin 90% ngu6n v6n nu'oc ngoai d
hi<;:uqua d1;lngdfiu tu' tai chinh va tin dl,1ngng~n h1;lnse t1;lOap ll!c
Tang tr11dngGDP d muc cao, keo dai nhi~u th;\ip ky, tai chinh r:;{t lon len cac cong ty, vI phai tra lai thu'ong
c9ng v(Ji lai su:;{t tie't ki<;:m trong n11(Jccao (blnh quan xuyen va bAng ngo1;lit~ (voi tin dl,lng ng~n h1;ln).H~u qua,
16,3% nam, trong khi d My la 7,6), va ti gia h6i doai g~n la ne'u quan ly kinhdoanh khong t6t thl hi~u qua san xu:;{t
nh11c6 dtnh da t~o nen m9t moi tr11C1ng kinh doanh r:;{th:;{p kinh doanh cua cac cong ty se th:;{p.
d§:n cac nha d~u t11n11(Jcngoai, d~c bi<;:t la d~u t11tai Nam 1991, t6ng dfiu tu'tai chinh thufu va tin dl,1ng
chinh, cho vay ng~n h~n va tin dl,1ngth11dng m~i. Nh11 ng~n h1;lnla 9,913 ti USD, g:;{p5,361fu t6ng dfiu t1.ftrl!c
v;\iy, cac doanh nghi<;:p tron"g n11(Jc,ne'u vay von trl:!c tie'p tie'p (1,847 ti USD), de'n nam 1996, la 18,079 ti USD, g:;{p
tu cac ngan hang, cong ty n11(Jcngoai nh11My thl chi chtu 121fu t6ng dfiutu'trl!c tie'p thufu (1,405 ti USD).
lai su:;{tkhoang 1/2 lai su:;{tcho vay trong n11(Jc.Ne'u cac The' nhu'ng, ti su:;{tthu h6i hay ti su:;{tlQi nhu~n tren
doanh nghi<;:pt;\in dl,1ngkha nang su dl,1ngvon ben ngoai tai san (ROA) blnh quan cua cac doanh nghi~p da giam tu
nay khong quan tam tht!c st! de'n hi<;:uqua su dl,1ngv6n 8%/namvao nam 1991 xu6ng chicon 1%/nam vao nam
vay thl hi<;:uqua kinh te'se giam, du t6ng gia trt san 111Qng 1996 [7]. Trong mQt n~n kinh te'ma lai su:;{t cho vay la
c6 the' tang. 16,3%/nam, con hi~u qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghi~p
M9t die'm d~c bi<;:t d Thai Lan la trong giai do~n la 1%/nam thl r6 rang da dang tich lQy nguy cd khung
1991- 1996, d~u t11trl:!ctie'p cua n11(Jcngoai vao ThaiLan hoang "pha san doanh nghi~p " (Sd d6 3.1).
chie'm ty trQng r:;{t nho so v(Ji d~u t11tai chin&(gian tie'p ) (Con tip)
va su dl,1.ngv6n vay ng~n h~n cua n11(Jcngoai (Bang 4.1).
, ." .'
PHA T TRII';N KINH TI, ThanJ: (;i~nJ: 2(1113 27
NGHI~N cOO & PHAT TRIEN
USD, lam tang cfiu ngo<:litt;:d9t ng9t. Ke't qua la ti gia h6i doai
se tang, dl! trU'ngo<:litt;:c<:lnkit;:t, nguy cd ma't kha nang thanh
toan ctia qu6c gia se ngay cang cao. De'n thang 6. 1997, tntOc
khi n6 ra khting hoang, n9 nu'Ocngoai ng.!in h<:lnda b"tlng 1,5
lfin dl! trU'ngo<:litt;:ctia Thai Lan. .
SI,t pha san cua cac doanh nghi~p, tuy tac d9ng ch~rn , qua hai long thoa man trong thoi ky tang trttdng kinh te' nhanh
hdn, song se l<:li thuc dffy qua trlnh.pha san cac ngan hang, va quen di nhi~u nhi~m V\l quan trQng de' thich (J'ngv(ji moi
c6ng ty tai chinh, vong xoay khung hoang s64 (Sd d5 4.1). trttong toan c~u dang thay d5i. M~c du Thai Lan da thu hut
Trong t6ng s6 108 ngan hang, c6ng ty tai chinh cua Thai cac dong v6n to l(jn v(ji lai sua:ttha:p nh1.fngchung ta khong
Lan, tiJthang 4.1997 de:n thang 3.1998,64 ngan hang, c6ng ty dtt<;1cd~u ttt dung d.1n va v(ji sl,tth~n trQng c~n thie't... Ngttoi
tai chinh c6 va'n d~ ( chie:rn 59% ), trong d6 56 bj amh chi hO<:lt Thai da sao nhang trong vi~c nang cao kha nang c~nh tranh.
d9ng, 4 b~ qu6c hw h6a hoi;lc chinh ph.u giarn sat va 4 b~ ban va di~u quan tr9ng hdn la du da d~t dtt<;1c thanh t\fU kinh te',
cho cac c6ng ty ntfOC ngoai (Bang 1.2). Thai Lan da khong kie'm tra n~n tang chinh tri va quan ly nha
.Nhtf viity, tie:n trlnh bung n6 khung hoang kinh te: -tai ntt(jc cua mlnh, da khong thanh cong trong vi~c tifn cong cac
chinh O Thai Lan c6 the' dtf<;1cm6 ta nhtf Sd d5 4.1. Vi~c ghi va:n d~ nhtt sl,tphi hi~u qua cua h~ th6ng chinh quy~n, thie'u
rn(tc thoi gian chi c6 tinh tltdng d6i, vlcac qua trlnh dan xen minh b~ch va thie'u trachnhi~m [I, tr.3l8 -319]. TheoJinpyo
vao nhau va vi~c bi1t dfiu m6i vong xoay khung hoang d~u Yoon, sl,tph\lc h6i kinh te' Thai Lan doi hoi cai cach kinh te'
di~n ra O quy rn6 nho tiJ tru'OCcac rn& thOi gian. cu.ngcai cach chinh tri [I. tr.32l]. TniOc he't la cai cach linh
Dtf(ji tac d9ng cua vong xoay khung hoang s62 va 1, ti vl,tc tai chinh, vI v~y m9t lu~t pha san m(ji da di1<;1c Qu6c h9i
gia h6i doai da tang v9t tiJ khoang 25 Baht/USD vao thang Thai Lan thong qua; Uy ban qu6c gia tai cd ca:u tai chinh,
6.1997Ien 53 .Baht/USD vao 31.12.1997, sau d6 tuy c6 giarn cong ty quan ly n<;1 va Quy phat trie'n cac t5 ch(tc tai chinh da
song v~n O rn(tc tren 38 Baht/USD vao 30.4.1998 {hl h 4.1); dtt<;1ctl1anh l~p. va thang 12.1997, m9t hie'n phap m(ji cua
[5, tr.706], [7]. I Thai Lan da dtt<;1c Qu6c h9i thong qua, lam n~n tang cho cac
lfmh 4.1: Ti gia ho1doai tr\i{Jc va trong khUng hoang kinh te'tai cai cach chinh tri.
chinh lJ Thai Lan Trang tie'n trlnh
khung haang, sau khi
BahVUSD tha n5i d6ng Baht, ti gia
I Ti.gia
hoi doj
55 + 53 h6i daai da khong
ngiing tang len, tit
50 i\ 47.25 7.1997, i(ji 1.1998 da
I \
d;:1tm(fc 53 BahtJUSD,
45
/ \ 1"'-- bttng 212% m(fc
40
/
\
,46.1997. Chi luc nay,
35. 36.5J
\ 38.8
/ ~ 37 1.1998, khi ch1nh
cam ke't chinh phu se
phu
4.3. Hftu qu3 cUa khimg hoang va cac df}i pho V. Bai h9C dO,i v61 VN tu cu9c khUng hoang kinh te- tai
H~u qua trl,tc tie'p cua khung hoang kinh te' -tai chinh (1 chinh chau A
Thai Lan la: Tren cd so phan tich khung hoang kinh te' -tai chinh 0
-cac ngan hang, cong ty taichinh, d()anh nghi~p pha san b6n nliOc ThairaLan,
ta c6 thf!: rUt 3 baiIndonesia, Malaysia
hQC v(ji VN [7]. va Han Qu6c, chung .
hAng lo~t, kinh te' qu& gia suy thoai. Tang tnt(1ng kinh te' tu
6,7% nam 1996 giam con 0,40/£< nam 1997, -8,3% n~m 1998 Baj h~ 1: Hi~u qua kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p va
va 1% nam 1999. hi~u qua kinh te' qu6c gia la cd so quan tr9ng nhfit dam bao chO
-G~n 2 tri~u ngltC1ilao d9ng mf{t vi~c lam, mf{t thu nh~p phat trif!:n IJe:n vftng va phai trO thanh m9t m1,lc tieu va chi tieu
[I, tr.318]. cua quan ly kinh te' dfit nli&, quan ly nganh va Ii16i doanh
-Cacnha d~u tlinl!& ngoai ma'tni~m tin, rUt v6n ra khoi
nghi~p.
df{t nl!{jc, lam xf{u di moi tntong d~u tl!. N~m 1995, 1996, m6i Df!: kh.1c ph1,lc sl:i thie'u chu y dung m(fc de'n hi~u qua san
nam c6 khoang 20 ti USD v6n.dl!~ r6t vao Thai Lan, nhu'l1g xufit kinh doanh va phat trif!:n, cAn dlia vao h~ th6ng chi tieu
n~m 1997, 15,8 ti USD v6n dl!9c rUt ra khoi qu& gia, nam kinh te' phai bao cao hang nam cua m5i dia phlidng, m6i
1998,them 9,5 ti USD v6n ch~y ra nl!& ngoai (Bang4.1). nganh va ca nliOc cac chi tieu nhli ti sufit 19'i nhu~n va ti sufit
S1,i r6i lo~n v~ kinh te', mf{t ni~m tin cua dan chung tfit gia trj gia tang tren v6n rieng cua doanh nghi~p theo cac
ye'u lam rung chuye'n h~ th6ng chinh tri. B6n thang sau khi tha nganh, theo thanh ph~n kinh te' va theo cac dia phlidng trong
n6i d6ng Baht, Thu tl!{jng Thai Lanxin ti:tchuc. M9i s1,ikhung ca nliOc, d6ng thC1itheo doi ch~t che sl:i bie'n d9ng cua chi s6
hoang suy cho cung la b~t ngu6n tu ye'u t6 con ngl!oi, ti:t s1,i ICOR v(ji m6i dia phlidng va ca nliOc.
quan Iy cua doanh nghi~p, cua ngan hang, cua chinh phu.
Thu tl!{jng Chuan Lae Kpai cho rling "ngl!oi Thai da
(Xem tie'p trang 35)
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I'HA T TRIEN KINH T..; Th"ng H"i 21HIJ 15
(Tie'p theo trang 15) cac ngan hang kem, thl de:uc6 t6c d9tang tru'(jng GDP blnh
quan tha'p hdn lai sua't tie:n gm blnh quan. Con My va
Singapore la hai nuOcc6 tie'ng la hi~u qua kinh te' cao, thl t6c
d9 tang tru'(jng GDP de:u cao hdn lai sua't tie:n gm. Ngay ca
Bai h9c 2: D'e'cac doanh nghi{:p va nf:n kinh te phat trien
Malaysia, tuy c6 m9t nguy cd khung hoang, song do hi~u qua
~n vU'ngthllai sua'tv6n vay de' d&u tu' phill tu'dng du'dng v{ji
kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p va ngan hang vftn cao nen
ho~c nho hdn kha nang sinh loi cua doanh nghi{:p.
tang tru'(jng GDP vftn lOn hdn lai sua't tie:n gm (Bang 5.1).
Nhu' v~y, de' phat trie'n ~n vU'ng, lai sua't tin d1,lngchu
Bai hQc 3: C~n c6 m9t t5 chi1c chuyen trach cua Ch1nh
y~u phai ffinh thanh qua quan h{: cung c&u v6n tten ~
phu theo doi s1!bie'n d9ng cua l~m phat, ti gia h6i doai, lai sua't
tru'ong, ch(Jkhong phai dl:l'avao y chi cua Nha nu'{jc.N~u lai
tin d1,1ngtrong nuOcva qu6c te'; can can tai khoan vang lai, nc;J
sua'ttin 41,lngnho hdn kha nang sinh loi cua doanh nghi{:p va
qu6c gia, hi~u qua kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p df!:de:
san phgm cua doanh nghi{:p c6 tinh c~nh tranh cao, thl doanh
xua't cac ch1nhsach va die:u tie't c~n thie't, bao dam phat tJif!:n
qu6c gia be:n vUng
Bang 5.1: Tang tru'dng GDP b1nhquan va lai sua'tti~n gi1i b1nhquan 1991-1996 vOi tang tru'(jng
r="""C"~C"t~"~~0"~~:~~',"""~=~~=1 "'. .
I r. " tu'dng dOl cao
Th3 Malaysia ,
My ~l~~!!?:-.
~-'+B!:~U§£~!~~~e~-a T
7.721 7.421 7.2 J !\.75 5.32 --;:11.26
;;;11 Tai li~u tham khao:
~ ang tru(jng GlJP binh qufin 1991 1. ASEAN University
1996 (%/nam) - --Network, Economic
7,33 6,70 4.77 3,30 Crisis in Southeast
Lffi sua't ti~n gt'ti binh qufin 1991 - 10,26 !\,90
1996 (%/nam)
~-~""-c~~ """ O~C~~~~ ~~~ ~~~-~-i~~~ ~i~i~na~~dK~~~~;~~~
Publisher, Seoul, Ko-
Ngu6n: [5] rea, 2000.
2. Vi$n nghien ciJu
.thlldng m~i Khung
nghi~p c6 the' sc cang phal lrie'n nhanh va hi~u qua kinh hoang mi chinh -tien t$ O chAu A, NXB chinh tri quoc gia, Ha N9i,
doanh cao, ne'u cang vay du'Qcnhi~u y6n. T(J'cla vay v6n ma 1998.
3. "Fusion Confusion", The Economist, 4.4.1998, P87 .
l'ciliphat trie'n ~n vUng. 4. f)inh Thdm, Khung hoang mi chinh -tien t$ khu VI,fC,nguyen nh8n va
So sanh t6c d9 tang lru'dng GDP va lai sua:tti~n gm d m9t giai phap, NXB thOng tin KHXH, Ha N9i, 1998.
s6nu'& cho ta minh h9a kha thu v~ (Bang 5.1). 5. IMF, International Statistics, 1.1999.
6. Facts about Korea, Korean Information Service, Seoul, Korea,
Ba nu'Ocda tich lGy dll ca b6n nguy cd khlmg hoang kinh
2001.
te' -tai chinh la Thai Lan, Han Qu6c va Indonesia, lrong d6 c6 7. Nguy~n Thi$n NhAn, Khung hoang kinh te -tai chfnh O chAu A 1997
~ 1999, NXB f)~i hQc Quoc gia TP .HCM , 2002.
hai nguy cd, hi~u qua kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p va