Thy g t tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam?

Nghin cu v s ng gp ca cc yu t i vi tng trng kinh t c ngha v nhiu mt, khng nhng xc nh v tr ca tng yu t c k hoch khai thc, m cn c ngha xc nh c yu t tim n gia tng lm pht.

Nu tnh c s ng gp ca yu t s lng vn u t v s ng gp ca yu t s lng lao ng, th hai yu t ny ng gp trn ba phn t tng tc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam. nh : Vneconomy Tng trng do cc yu t u vo Tng trng kinh t xt u vo, c ba yu t ng gp. l s ng gp ca yu t s lng vn u t, s ng gp ca s lng lao ng v s ng gp ca yu t nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (TFP). Theo tnh ton ban u, yu t s lng vn u t ng gp khong 57%, yu t s lng lao ng ng gp khong 20%, yu t TFP ng gp 23%. T s ng gp nh trn, c th rt ra mt s nhn xt ng lu . Mt l, tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam da ch yu vo s ng gp ca yu t s lng vn u t. T l vn u t so vi GDP t nm 2004 n nay u vt qua mc 40% (nm 2004 t 40,7%, nm 2005 t 40,9%, nm 2006 t 41%, c nm 2007 t 40,4%), k hoch nm 2008 cn cao hn, ln n 42%.

y l t l thuc loi cao nht th gii, ch sau t l trn di 44% ca Trung Quc mt t l lm cho tng trng kinh t ca Trung Quc t cao nht th gii, nhiu nm lin tng hai ch s, hin ang gi k lc th gii v s nm tng trng lin tc (28 nm), nhng Trung Quc a ra mc tiu gim nng ca tng trng v y mnh chng lm pht do tc tng gi tnh theo nm ca thng 2/2008 ln n 8,3%, cao nht trong 12 nm qua. Hai l, tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam hin cn da mt phn quan trng vo yu t s lng lao ng, s quan trng ny c xt trn hai mt. Mt mt, do ngun lao ng hng nm vn cn tng khong 2%, tc l trn 1 triu ngi mi nm. Mt khc, do t l tht nghip thnh th v t l thiu vic lm nng thn cn cao. Ba l, nu tnh c s ng gp ca yu t s lng vn u t v s ng gp ca yu t s lng lao ng, th hai yu t ny ng gp trn ba phn t tng tc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam. iu chng t, s ng gp ca yu t TFP i vi tng tc tng trng kinh t cn nh, cha c mt phn t, thp ch bng hai phn ba t trng ng gp ca yu t ny ca cc nc trong khu vc hin nay. iu cng chng t, nn kinh t Vit Nam hin vn i theo hng tng trng v s lng, cha chuyn sang tng trng v cht lng, vn ch yu pht trin theo chiu rng, cha chuyn mnh sang pht trin theo chiu su. Hiu qu s dng vn cha cao TFP l tng hp ca cc nhn t hiu qu s dng vn u t v nng sut lao ng. Hiu qu s dng vn u t c th hin nhiu ch tiu. Gn y, trn cc din n hi tho v trn mt s phng tin thng tin i chng, khi cp n hiu qu u t cc chuyn gia thng dng h s ICOR. Ch tiu ny c tnh bng nhiu cch, song theo cch tnh n gin m cc chuyn gia cp l ly t l vn u t/GDP chia cho tc tng trng GDP. H s ICOR cng ln th hiu qu u t cng thp v ngc li. T l vn u t/GDP v tc tng GDP th ICOR qua cc thi k nh sau: Tnh chung ICOR ca Vit Nam trong thi k 1991-2007 l 4,86 ln, cao hn nhiu so vi 2,7 ln ca i Loan (trong thi k 1961-1980), 3 ln ca Hn Quc (trong thi k 1961- 1980), 3,7 ln ca Indonesia (trong thi k 1981-1995), 4 ln ca Trung Quc (trong thi k 2001-2006), 4,1 ln ca Thi Lan (trong thi k 1981-1995); cng cao hn so vi 4,6 ln ca Malaysia (trong thi k 1981-1995). iu chng t, hiu qu u t ca Vit Nam cn thp.

Hiu qu u t cn c tnh theo cch ly GDP chia cho vn u t hng nm (u tnh theo gi thc t). Theo cch ny, th GDP/Vn u t (c ngha l 1 ng vn u t to ra c bao nhiu ng GDP) ca Vit Nam b st gim qua cc thi k: nu thi k 1991-1995 t 3,55 ng/ng, th nm 1996-2000 cn 3,0 ng/ng, 2001-2005 cn 2,56 ng/ng, 2006-2007 cn 2,46 ng/ng. Nng sut lao ng ca Vit Nam cn thp. Nm 2007 mi t 25.886 ng/ngi, ca nhm ngnh nng, lm nghip-thu sn cn t thp hn ch c 9.607 nghn ng/ngi, ngay c nhm ngnh cng nghip-xy dng cao nht cng mi t 55.072 ng/ngi v ca nhm ngnh dch v cng ch t 38.159 nghn ng/ngi. Nu quy ra USD theo t gi hi oi, nng sut lao ng ca ton nn kinh t cng mi t khong 1,6 nghn USD, ca nhm ngnh nng, lm nghip- thu sn ch t 0,6 nghn USD, ca nhm ngnh cng nghip- xy dng t khong 3.438 USD, ca nhm ngnh dch v t khong 2.385 USD. Cc con s trn cn thp xa so vi nng sut lao ng chung ca th gii (khong trn 14,6 nghn USD), cn thp hn c mc bnh qun u ngi ca th gii (khong 6,5 nghn USD/ngi). Vi nng sut cn thp nh trn th gi tr thng d cn ang rt nh nhoi. Mt nn kinh t tng trng ch yu da vo vn, m hiu qu u t thp, nht l hiu qu u t ca khu vc kinh t Nh nc cn thp hn; nng sut lao ng thp,... nn nhu cu i vi tin t, yu cu cung tin lun lun cao, to sc p lm tng lm pht. Sc p ny cng hng vi lm pht trn th gii trong khi ng Vit Nam c neo gi cht vi USD m USD li mt gi ln so vi cc ng tin m Vit Nam c quan h bun bn ln nht li cng to ra sc p lm pht ti Vit Nam ln hn cc nc. Cc yu t u ra Tng trng kinh t xt yu t u ra c ba yu t ng gp. l s ng gp ca tiu dng cui cng, ca tch lu ti sn, ca xut khu rng (xut khu rng c tnh bng xut khu tr i nhp khu). C mt s nhn xt c rt ra t ng gp ca cc yu t u ra i vi tng trng kinh t: Th nht, tng trng kinh t ch yu do tng trng tiu dng cui cng. iu c l gii l do quy m GDP ca Vit Nam cn thp, nn t trng tiu dng cui cng hin ang chim t trng ln trong GDP (trn di 70%); mc tiu dng bnh qun u ngi trong nhiu nm cn thp nn nhu cu v tc tng thng kh cao (my nm lin tc tng trn 7%, gn bng vi tc tng ca GDP). Mt nt quan trng l tiu dng cui cng thng qua mua bn trn th trng ngy mt chim t trng ln, do tc tng qua cc nm ( loi tr yu t gi) my nm nay lin

tc tng hai ch s (nm 2002 tng 11,2%, nm 2003 tng 15,2%, nm 2004 tng 10,8%, nm 2005 tng 11,3%, nm 2006 yng 12,5%, nm 2007 tng 11,4%). Khi tiu dng cui cng thng qua mua bn trn th trng tng nhanh v tr thnh ng lc ca tng trng kinh t th mt mt n hp dn cc nh u t nc ngoi mt khc to p lc tng cung tin t, to p lc lm pht. Cng vi tng trng tiu dng chung th tiu dng ca mt b phn dn c tng rt cao v quy m, a dng v chng loi, mu m, cht lng. Cng vi xu hng ny cng xut hin tm l a chung hng hiu, hng ngoi, thm ch mua bn vi bt k gi no. Th hai, tng trng kinh t do tng trng tch lu ti sn chim t trng kh cao. y cng l mt tn hiu tt th hin tm l tit kim dnh cho tch lu ca khu vc ng Nam ni chung v Vit Nam ni ring. Tuy nhin, bn cnh vic trc tip u t tng trng, c mt phn khng nh c dnh di dng ct tr hoc chy lng vng qua cc knh gy ra nhng cn st nng hoc lnh cc knh ny m khng c u t trc tip cho sn xut kinh doanh. Hin c hng trm t ng vn u t ang c chn vo bt ng sn, vo vng. Th ba, tng trng xut khu rng hin ang mang du m do nhp siu gia tng mnh c v quy m, c v t l so vi xut khu. Nhp siu c v hng ho, c v dch v. Ring v hng ho, nm 2007 ln gp 2,5 ln nm 2006, nm nay mi qua 3 thng m gp 3,8 ln cng k, kh nng c nm c th gp ri hoc cao hn so vi nm trc. Theo Dng Ngc Vneconom