LI CM N

Trc ht, em xin gi cm n chn thnh ti qu thy c khoa Qun tr

Cng nghip hng dn, trang b cho em nhng kin thc qu gi trong sut 4 nm
va qua. V c bit l thy Li Huy Hng tn tnh hng dn em trong sut thi
gian thc tp v lm lun vn.
Xin cm n cc bn cng kha gip v chia s trong sut 4 nm hc i hc.
Xin cm n tt c cc anh ch trong cng ty C phn An Ph v cng ty bt ng sn
CB Richard Ellis tn tnh gp kin, chia s kinh nghim v cung cp ti liu cho
em hon thnh lun vn ny.
Cui cng, em xin cm n nhng ngi thn ng vin, an i tinh thn cng nh
gip v vt cht em c th t c kt qu nh ngy hm nay.
Sinh vin
Bi Nguyn Phi Cng.

Trang i

TM TT TI
Bn k hoch kinh doanh bt ng sn ny c xy dng nhm nh
hng cho d n vo hot ng trong 50 nm v cung cp cho bn qun l d n trin
khai cng vic kinh doanh c th. D n d kin s bt u vo thng 01/2008 ti a
ch 140 Ph Quang, Phng 2, Qun Tn Bnh,TPHCM sau khi cc cng tc chun b
hon tt d kin l 6 thng.
D n Si Gn Savico l d n xy dng khu phc hp bn vi 3 i tc chnh l:
Ch u t l Cng ty C Phn Dch V Tng Hp Si Gn Savico thc hin chin
lc tip th duy nht v bn c quyn cho d n. Chi ph tip th v hoa hng khon
2% (gm VAT) doanh thu.
Tn d n Lp k hoch kinh doanh d n khu phc hp Si Gn
Savico
y l d n khu phc hp vi thit k hin i, p mt nm ti trung tm thnh ph.
Vi s tin tng v s pht trin ca th trng bt ng sn trong thi gian ti cng
ty c th thu c 100% doanh thu ngay khi d n hon tt vo cui nm 2010.
V mt gi c,hin ti gi thu cn h cao cp, trung cp ,vn phng ,dch v khu
vc ny bnh qun t: 25 - 30 USD/m2. Vi v tr t bit thun li ca khu thng
mi Si Gn Savico th gi thu d kin ti thiu l 42 USD/m2 (cha bao gm VAT).
Do c s h tr t pha chnh quyn thnh ph trong k hoch pht trin chung,
cng ty d kin s hon tt cc th tc php l trong vng 6 thng. V phn xy dng,
Cng ty C Phn Dch V Tng Hp Si Gn Savico s t chc u thu chn nh
thu xy dng A. D kin thi gian xy dng l 2 nm, n cui nm 2010 d n c
th i hot ng. Chi ph xy dng d kin khong 23,55 triu USD.
Ban qun l d n gm c ban qun l d n gm 5 ngi v s chu trch nhim kim
sot hot ng ca d n. Ngoi ra, sau khi thu ht din tch cn h, cng ty s thu
thm nhn vin khai thc tng hm cng nh cung cp cc dch v tin ch cho
khch hng (dch v v sinh, an ninh v gi xe).
Tng ngun vn u t cho d n khong 37,5 triu USD trong vn ch s hu
23% , vn gp ca i tc l 22% v vn vay ngn hng l 55%. T phn tch ti chnh
cho thy y l d n kh thi vi WACC l 18,64% v gi tr hin ti rng NPV dng
ln trn 16,5 triu USD. Kt qu phn tch ri ro cng cho thy y l mt d n t ri
ro v kh nng sinh li cao.

Trang i

MC LC

CHNG 1: GII THIU D N...........................................................................2
1.1. HNH THNH D N......................................................................................2
1.3. TNG QUAN V CNG TY C PHN AN PH..........................................3
1.2. SN PHM DCH V. .....................................................................................3
1.3. M T DCH V..............................................................................................4
CHNG 2: PHN TCH TH TRNG...............................................................4
2.1. TNH HNH KINH T.......................................................................................4
Bng 1: Tc tng trng GDP v s ng gp ca 3 nhm ngnh chnh..............4
Hnh 1: Cn cn thng mi 6 thng u nm 2007..................................................5
Hnh 2: Biu tng trng GDP gi tiu dng trung bnh v doanh thu bn l....5
2.2. CHNH TR -X HI.......................................................................................6
2.3. TNG QUAN TH TRNG............................................................................6
2.3.1. Nhu cu nh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh...................................................6
Bng 2: d bo dn s 2006-2010..............................................................................6
Bng 3: Gi bn v t l bn chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM......................................7
Hnh 3: S s chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM........................................................9
2.3.2. Tnh hnh cung ng nh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh...............................10
Hnh 5: Thng k s cn h c xy dng n nm 2011.....................................11
2.4. PHN TCH CNH TRANH...........................................................................12
2.4.1. Cc i th hin ti....................................................................................12
Hnh 6: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2001-09/2007. 12
Hnh 7: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2006-09/2007. 12
Bng 4: Thng k s lng cn h bn c tng ng vi gi..............................13
Hnh 8: 6 cn h cao cp dc khnh thnh vo nm 2009.....................................13
Hnh 9: Xu hng gi ca cc khu bit th: Ph Gia Villa Riviera Th c
Garden Home...........................................................................................................14
2.5. NHN DNG IM MNH-YU,C HI-NGUY C ..............................14
CHNG 3: K HOCH TIP TH......................................................................17
3.1. MC TIU K HOCH TIP TH.................................................................17
Bng 5: Bng d ton doanh thu..............................................................................17
3.1.1. Hnh nh.....................................................................................................18
Trang i

3.1.2. Th trng mc tiu....................................................................................18

3.1.3. Chun b v k hoch.................................................................................19
3.1.4. Phng tin tip th (tip cn th trng)...................................................19
3.1.5. Nguyn nhn chn CBRE lm tip th v bn hng...................................20
3.2. NH GI........................................................................................................21
Hnh 10: Biu thu nhp GDP bnh qun trn u ngi ti Tp HCM.................21
Hnh 11: Biu bin ng gi trung bnh chung c cao cp ti qun 1.................22
Bng 6: Bng gi cn h cao cp ti Qun 1............................................................22
Hnh 12: Hnh v tinh v tr chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch so vi cc chung c
khc..........................................................................................................................23
3.3. CHI PH TIP TH V PHNG THC THANH TON............................23
3.3.1. Ph t vn...................................................................................................23
3.3.2. Ph tip th bn c quyn..........................................................................24
3.3.3. Ph hnh chnh............................................................................................24
Bng 7: bng tnh chi ph tip th ............................................................................24
3.4. NGUN LC THC HIN.............................................................................24
Bng 8: bng tnh lng nhn vin k ton..............................................................25
CHNG 4: K HOCH HOT NG...............................................................26
4.1. MC TIU V K HOCH HOT NG...................................................26
4.2. NGUN LC THC HIN.............................................................................26
Bng 9: bng thng s t v thng s quy hoch xy dng....................................26
Bng 10: Bng tnh chi ph khu hao hai tng hm .................................................28
CHNG 5: K HOCH NHN S.....................................................................30
5.1. MC TIU K HOCH NHN S...............................................................30
5.2. YU CU NGUN NHN LC....................................................................30
5.3. TUYN DNG................................................................................................31
5.4. CHNH SCH O TO................................................................................31
5.5. CH LNG. ...........................................................................................31
Bng 11: Bng tnh chi ph lng nhn vin............................................................31
CHNG 6: K HOCH TI CHNH..................................................................33
6.1. GI NH TI CHNH...................................................................................33
Bng 12: Mt s gi nh chnh cho d n...............................................................33
6.2. CU TRC NGUN VN..............................................................................34

Trang ii

Bng 13: Cu trc ngun vn...................................................................................34

6.3. MC TIU TI CHNH..................................................................................34
6.4. CC BO CO TI CHNH D TON........................................................34
Bng 14: Bo co kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh d ton..........................34
Hnh 13: Biu doanh thu ca d n.....................................................................36
Bng 15: Bng cn i k ton d ton....................................................................37
Bng 16: Bng tnh dng tin d ton .....................................................................39
Hnh 14: Biu FCF..............................................................................................41
Hnh 15: biu FCF v cn i tin mt................................................................42
Bng 17: Bng cc t s ti chnh ...........................................................................42
6.5. PHN TCH RI RO.......................................................................................43
Hnh 16: Biu NPV theo gi bn v chi ph s dng vn....................................44
CHNG 7: KT LUN ........................................................................................45
NHNG HN CH CA TI.........................................................................45
PH LC...................................................................................................................46
Ph lc 1: Bng phn tch gi tr NPV theo gi v WACC......................................46
Ph lc 2: Hp ng ngh gia CBRE v An Ph...............................................47
TI LIU THAM KHO.........................................................................................50

Trang iii

DANH MC BNG
Bng 1: Tc tng trng GDP v s ng gp ca 3 nhm ngnh
chnh......................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 2: D bo dn s 2006-2010.........................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 3: Gi bn v t l bn chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM...Error: Reference source
not found
Bng 4: Thng k s lng cn h bn c tng ng vi gi.......Error: Reference
source not found
Bng 5: Bng d ton doanh thu............................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 6: Bng gi cn h cao cp ti Qun 1..........Error: Reference source not found
Bng 7: Bng tnh chi ph tip th..........................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 8:Bng tnh lng nhn vin k ton............Error: Reference source not found
Bng 9:Bng thng s t v thng s quy hoch xy dng. .Error: Reference source
not found
Bng 10: Bng tnh chi ph khu hao hai tng hm Error: Reference source not found
Bng 11: Bng tnh chi ph lng nhn vin..........Error: Reference source not found
Bng 12: Mt s gi nh chnh cho d n.............Error: Reference source not found
Bng 13: Cu trc ngun vn.................................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 15: Bng cn i k ton d ton..................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 16: Bng tnh dng tin d ton....................Error: Reference source not found
Bng 17: Bng cc t s ti chnh..........................Error: Reference source not found

Trang i

DANH MC HNH
Hnh 1: Cn cn thng mi 6 thng u nm 2007....Error: Reference
source not found
Hnh 2: Biu tng trng GDP gi tiu dng trung bnh v doanh thu bn l
...............................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 3: S s chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM....Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 4: S d n v cn h c xy dng qua cc nm. Error: Reference source not
found
Hnh 5: Thng k s cn h c xy dng n nm 2011....Error: Reference source
not found
Hnh 6: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2001-09/2007
...............................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 7: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2006-09/2007
...............................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 8: 6 cn h cao cp dc khnh thnh vo nm 2009....Error: Reference source
not found
Hnh 9: Xu hng gi ca cc khu bit th: Ph Gia Villa Riviera Th c
Garden Home.........................................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 10: Biu thu nhp GDP bnh qun trn u ngi ti Tp HCM............Error:
Reference source not found
Hnh 11: Biu bin ng gi trung bnh chung c cao cp ti qun 1............Error:
Reference source not found
Hnh 12: Hnh v tinh v tr chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch so vi cc chung c
khc........................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 13: Biu doanh thu ca d n...................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 14: Biu FCF............................................Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 15: Biu FCF v cn i tin mt.............Error: Reference source not found
Hnh 16: Biu NPV theo gi bn v chi ph s dng vn.. Error: Reference source
not found

Trang i

CHNG 1: GII THIU D N

1.1. HNH THNH D N
Theo thng k ca S Xy dng thnh ph H Ch Minh, thnh ph hin c 138 chung
c h hng, xung cp cn phi tho d vi hn 14.570 h dn cn di di. Tng din
tch phi gii ta xy dng mi chung c l 232.372 m2. Cng thc hin chm vic
xy mi, s tin Nh nc phi b ra cng ln.
Theo ch trng chung ca Chnh ph trong Ngh quyt s 34/2007/NQ-CP ngy
03/7/2007 cng nh ca chnh quyn thnh ph H Ch Minh, cn thit phi ci to,
xy mi cc chung c c xung cp, h hng nng trn a bn thnh ph nhm
chnh trang th; bin thnh ph H Ch Minh thnh mt thnh ph vn minh, hin
i; nng cao cht lng sng ca ngi dn. thc hin ch trng ca thnh ph
trong iu kin ngn sch hn hp, y ban nhn dn qun 3 ku gi cc nh u t
tham gia u t xy dng cc chung c mi thay th cho cc chung c c.
Chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch l mt chung c c xy dng trc nm 1975
(tn c l C x Duy Tn) nay xung cp nng. Ban qun l chung c nhiu ln
b kinh ph sa cha, ci to chung c nhng ch l gii php tm thi, khng th
gii quyt trit tnh trng xung cp. Gii php tt nht l ph b chung c xy
mi. Qun 3 c ch trng d b v xy mi khu chung c ny_chung c 57-59
Phm Ngc Thch.
Vi mong mun gp phn vo s nghip pht trin chung ca thnh ph H Ch Minh,
Cng ty c phn An Ph quyt nh ng k u t d n 57 59 Phm Ngc Thch.
y s l mt d n chung c cao cp, thay th cho khu chung c c. Xy dng chung
c cao cp ti v tr ny c tnh ph hp cao, v khu vc xung quanh c kh nhiu vn
phng, cng s, tr s ngoi giao. S lng ngi c thu nhp cao cn tm kim mt
ch gn ni lm vic rt ln.
D n 57 59 Phm Ngc Thch nm trn ng Phm Ngc Thch qun 3, mt qun
trung tm ca thnh ph H Ch Minh. y l mt v tr v cng thun li cho mi
hot ng ca cuc sng. D n nm gn cc ng in Bin Ph, Nam K Khi
Ngha l cc trc ng chnh ca thnh ph (tham kho thm hnh 11: Hnh v tinh v
tr chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch so vi cc chung c khc phn k hoch tip
th).
1.2. NHN S CH CHT
D n c thc hin vi s ng gp ca 3 cng ty chnh nhng trong cng ty bt
ng sn An Ph ng vai tr ch cht. Hai cng ty cn li l cng ty A vi t cch l
nh thu xy dng (thng qua u thu) s m bo tt c nhng phn lin quan n
xy dng theo yu cu ca cng ty An Ph. V mt kinh doanh bt ng sn ( y l
bn chung c) s nh cng ty bt ng sn CBRE lm tip th v bn c quyn.

Trang 2

1.3. TNG QUAN V CNG TY C PHN AN PH.

Ra i nm 1989 vi tn gi Cng ty Dch v sn xut An Ph (ASC) - trc thuc Ban
Ti chnh Qun tr Trung ng. n nay, cng ty An Ph c hn 15 nm hot ng
trong lnh vc xut nhp khu v kinh doanh bt ng sn.
D n u tin cng ty thc hin l qui hoch khu An Ph (ngoi Thnh ph H Ch
Minh) thnh khu bit th cho thu cao cp dnh cho ngi nc ngoi. Thnh cng
ca d n vi 170 cn h sang trng v hin i trn din tch 22,5 ha t l ting vang
khi u cho nhng d n bt ng sn qui m sau ny. Khng ch c th, li nhun
kinh doanh xut nhp khu ca cng ty An Ph khng ngng gia tng. Vi cc mt
hng ch lc l go, c ph v st thp, An Ph lun l im sng dn u xut nhp
khu ti TP. H Ch Minh v trn ton quc.
Sau nhng thnh cng to ting vang trong lnh vc bt ng sn v trc xu th pht
trin mnh ca th trng ny, An Ph nhanh chng nhn thy mt hng kinh
doanh nhiu tim nng. Bng tm nhn nhy bn trong kinh doanh, nm 2004, An Ph
ti cu trc thnh Cng ty c phn An Ph vi hot ng mi nhn l kinh doanh
bt ng sn. n nay, rt nhiu d n ln c bit n gn lin vi tn tui ca
Cng ty C phn An Ph.
Hin nay, An Ph vn ang tip tc kho st cc v tr chin lc cc khu vc ln
cn TP. H Ch Minh cho nhng d n sp n, ha hn cung cp thm nhiu khng
gian sng mi, vn minh v hin i.
Mt vi d n tiu biu:
Khu dn c cng nghip Hc Mn (650 ha)
Khu cng nghip Thnh c (370 ha, khu vc gip ranh Long An TP. HCM)...
Cn h cao cp Bnh Ph: gm 5 khi nh 19 tng, trn din tch t 10.720m.
D n L Chnh Thng: cao c cn h cao cp khu vc trung tm thnh ph.
1.2. SN PHM DCH V.
Hin nay, Cng ty C phn An Ph hot ng trn hai lnh vc chnh: u t - Kinh
doanh bt ng sn v kinh doanh xut nhp khu.
u t, kinh doanh bt ng sn
Gm 2 lnh vc chnh:
Quy hoch: Kho st v nghin cu cc a im chin lc mi xy dng phng
n quy hoch ph hp (khu th mi, khu dn c, khu cng nghip...). Ngay sau khi
c c quan thm quyn ph duyt, An Ph s trc tip u t v pht trin d n
ng thi sn sng mi gi s hp tc t cc nh u t trong v ngoi nc.
u t xy dng nh : bao gm chung c cao tng, villa, nh ph... vi nhiu cp loi
khc nhau, nhm p ng nhu cu a dng ca th trng.

Trang 3

Kinh doanh xut nhp khu

Xut nhp khu vn l th mnh v l nim t ho ca Cng ty C phn An Ph. Hin
nay, phc v mc tiu tp trung vo lnh vc bt ng sn v xy dng, An Ph
chuyn nhp khu st thp v cung ng cho cc nh my thp lin doanh (Nh my
thp Ty , Nh my thp Pomina), y mnh sn xut thp phc v th trng v
cc cng trnh ca Cng ty.
V nhn s ca cng ty c ban qun l d n gm 5 thnh vin, m trch vic phn
tch tnh kh thi v lp k hoch kinh doanh ca d n. Ngoi ra sau giai on hon
thnh 3 nm s thu 8 nhn vin khai thc hai tng hm.
1.3. M T DCH V
Chung c 57-50 Phm Ngc thch l chung c cao cp vi 15 tng thit k hin i,
p mt nm ti trung tm thnh ph. D n thc hin thay th chung c c
xung cp trm trng. Sau khi hon tt, d n cung cp 20,640 m2 v 2,752 m2
gi xe. Bn cnh d n ch s dng 50% din tch t xy dng nn cn nhiu
khng gian cho cc hot ng sinh hot v to vn minh th.

Trang 4

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

CHNG 2: PHN TCH TH TRNG

2.1. TNH HNH KINH T
Kinh t Vit Nam tip tc tng trng n nh vi tc tng trng cao trong 6
thng u nm 2007. Tng thu nhp quc ni (GDP) 6 thng u nm 2007 t xp x
31 t USD, tng 7,87% so vi cng k nm 2006. y l mc tng trng cao nht
trong vng 6 nm gn y m ng gp l s tng trng ca cc ngnh cng nghip,
xy dng v dch v. Theo Tng Cc Thng K Vit Nam (GSO), 6 thng u nm
ngnh cng nghip v xy dng tng 9,88%, tip theo l ngnh dch v tng 8,41% v
nng-lm-ng nghip ch tng 2,8%.
Bng 1: Tc tng trng GDP v s ng gp ca 3 nhm ngnh chnh
6 thng 04

6 thng 05

6 thng 06 6

GDP

7.63

7.4

7.87

Ngnh nng lm- ng nghip

4.23

2.8

Ngnh cng nghip xy dng

10

9.5

9.3

9.88

Ngnh dch v

7.6

7.7

8.41

Thm ht thng mi tng ln 4,78 t USD trong 6 thng u nm 2007. y l kt

qu ca kim ngch nhp khu tng 30,4% trong khi xut khu ch tng 19,4%. ng
ch l s gim st ca khi lng xut khu du th trong 6 thng u nm xung
cn 7,6 triu tn (t khong 43,4% so vi k hoch c nm l 17,5 triu tn), ch
em li 3,76 t SD (t khong 46% so vi k hoch c nm l 8 t USD). Nhn
chung, ngoi xut khu c ph tng t bin, hu ht cc mt hng xut khu chnh
u c mc tng kh thp trong 6 thng u nm. Thc t ny khin gi tr xut khu
trong 6 thng qua ch t 48% k hoch ca c nm 2007.
Tuy nhin, s thm ht thng mi ny l do s gia tng nhp khu my mc, thit b,
st thp cho vic xy dng cc cng trnh, nh my v nguyn vt liu cho sn xut
trong 6 thng u nm, iu ny em li tn hiu kh quan cho s tng trng tt ca
nn kinh t trong 6 thng cui nm. Thm vo , xut khu, c v mt sn lng v
gi tr thng c khuynh hng tng cao hn vo 6 thng cui nm so vi 6 thng u
nm.

Trang 4

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

Hnh 1: Cn cn thng mi 6 thng u nm 2007

(Ngun: Tng Cc Thng K Vit Nam qua cc nm 2004, 2005, 2006)
u t trc tip t nc ngoi tng cao hn nhiu so vi cng k nm ngoi, FDI ca
Vit Nam tng 74% t 2,26 t USD ca 6 thng u nm 2006 ln 3,93 t USD trong
6 thng u nm 2007. D kin, trong thi gian ti, vn FDI vo Vit Nam s tip tc
tng ln c v s ng k mi cng nh s thc hin. Sc mua v tiu th ni a tip
tc i ln vi tng doanh thu bn l hng ha v dch v tng 22,9% so vi cng k
nm trc. Ch s gi tiu dng thng 6 nm 2007 tip tc tng 5,6% so vi thng 12
nm 2006 v 7,8% so vi cng k nm trc.

Hnh 2: Biu tng trng GDP gi tiu dng trung bnh v doanh thu bn l
(Ngun: Tng Cc Thng K Vit Nam qua cc nm 2004, 2005, 2006)
Chnh ph vn ang tip tc n lc kim ch lm pht di mc tng trng thc ca
GDP. Ngun cung ngoi t tng cao do u t gin tip cng vi s gia tng ca dng

Trang 5

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

vn u t FDI trong 6 thng u nm buc ngn hng Nh Nc phi hn ch s tng

gi ca ng Vit Nam bng cch mua vo ng USD. Trong 5 thng u nm, Ngn
hng Nh Nc mua vo khong 7 t USD, tng ng khong 112 ngn t ng
c a vo th trng tin t lm cung ni t tng mnh.
2.2. CHNH TR -X HI.
Nm 2006, kinh t nc ta pht trin trong iu kin trong nc v th gii c nhng
s kin ni bt: i hi ng ton quc ln th X, Hi ngh APEC 2006 ti H Ni
thnh cng tt p, Vit Nam chnh thc tr thnh thnh vin ca t chc thng
mi th gii (WTO). Bn cnh , cng c khng t cc yu t kh khn tc ng
khng thun n sn xut v i sng dn c: trong nc l nh hng ca bo s 1,
bo s 6, bo s 9 v cc bt thng v thi tit khc; dch bnh trong nng nghip,
dch cm gia cm, dch l mm long mng,, trn th trng quc t, gi c ni
chung, c bit l gi xng du din bin phc tp v c chiu hng tng. Tuy nhin,
nh c s ch o v iu hnh st sao ca Chnh ph thng qua cc chnh sch ph
hp, kp thi, cng vi s n lc ca cc ngnh, cc cp, cc doanh nghip v ton
dn, kinh t tip tc pht trin, chnh tr, x hi n nh.
2.3. TNG QUAN TH TRNG.
2.3.1. Nhu cu nh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh
Theo Cc thng k thnh ph H Ch Minh dn s thnh ph nm 2006 l 6.436.308
ngi, t l tng dn s t nhin l 1,09%/nm, t l tng dn s c hc l 1,97%/nm,
t l tng dn s ni chung bao gm c tng dn s t nhin v c hc l 3,06%/nm.
Trong khi t l tng dn s ca c nc l 1,21%. Ngha l dn s thnh ph tng
nhanh gp 2,5 ln so vi bnh qun ca c nc. Nguyn nhn ca hin tng ny
khng phi do chnh quyn thnh ph lm khng tt cng tc k hoch ha gia nh
m do dn nhp c t cc tnh khc v thnh ph tm kim cng n vic lm qu
ng.
Nu duy tr t l tng dn s 3,06%/nm , d bo trong cc nm tip theo dn s thnh
ph s nh sau: (n v tnh : ngi)
Bng 2: d bo dn s 2006-2010
Nm

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Dn s

6.436.30
8

6.633.25
9

6.836.23
7

7.045.42
6

7.261.016

Theo bo co ca Lin hp quc nm 2006 thnh ph H Ch Minh ng th 50 th

gii, ng th 29 1 Chu v dn s .Vo nm 2010, thnh ph H Ch Minh s c
dn s hn Hong Kong hin nay (7,1 triu) .

1 World Urbanization Prospects report (2006 revision) United Nations Population Division
Trang 6

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

Vi dn s nh vy nhng theo S Xy dng tng din tch nh ca thnh ph H

Ch Minh hin nay mi ch c 69,5 triu m2 t bnh qun 10,27 m2/ngi. Do trong
nhng nm ti thnh ph phi tng thm khong 6,5 triu m/nm mi m bo n
nm 2010 t bnh qun 14 m/ngi vi tng din tch trn 100 triu m2 theo nh ch
tiu m thnh ph ra.
y l nhu cu nh da trn s liu thng k chnh thng v ch tiu ca nh nc.
Trn thc t nhu cu nh c th ln hn na v cc l do nh thng k dn s v nh
thiu chnh xc, mc thu nhp ca ngi dn khng ngng tng ln. Dn chng
khng ch c nhu cu c nh rng ri hn m cn tin nghi hn. Nhng loi nh cp
4 lp xp khng cn thch hp vi ngi dn th hin nay . Sp ti , tiu chun nh
ca ngi dn thnh ph phi l loi nh cao cp c phng ng ring cho cc thnh
vin, c nh v sinh c trang b tt , c y mi tin nghi nh TV, t lnh, my
lnh, in thoi tng ng vi nh ca cc nc pht trin.
i vi cn h chung c cao cp, rt kh c th d bo chnh xc trong cc nm ti
thnh ph cn thm bao nhiu din tch p ng nhu cu ngi c thu nhp cao. D
liu c s d bo vn l cc con s thng k cc cn h cao cp bn c trong qu
kh
Di y l mt s thng k ca CB Richard Ellis v s cn h cao cp bn c vo
u nm 2007:
Bng 3: Gi bn v t l bn chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM
Tn cn h
V tr
cao cp

Din tch (m2)

Cng ty

Gi
T l
(USD/m2) bn

1 phng ng din tch:71-75

Lancaster

Qun 1

Avalon

Qun 1

Trung Thy

2 phng ng din tch:86

Co Ltd

3 phng ng din tch:120165

Phng
Co

Nam

2 phng ng : 103

3,600

98%

2,800

100%

Daewon Co

Loi A: 150 (3 phng ng)

v Th c

Loi B: 120 (3 phng ng) 1,029Loi C: 96 (3 phng ng) 1,155

97%

Din tch: 92-123

0%

Cantavil

Qun 2

Housing
Development Loi D: 79 (3 phng ng)
Co.
Loi E: 75 (2 phng ng)

Estella

Qun 2

Tin Phc
Co.

Trang 7

1,0001,200

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

Pasteur
Court

Van Thinh
Qun 3

Nam Khang
Phu My
Qun 7
Hung,
The Grand
View

Qun 7

2-phng ng, din tch: 83

Phat Co Ltd

3-phng ng, din tch:125v An Thai Co. 142

Phu My Hung
Corp.

Din tch: 150

Phu My Hung 117-134 (3 phng ng)

Phu My
Hung

Corp.

Garden Plaza Qun 7

Phu My
Hung

Phu My Hung 14 khu mua sm: 133-524

Panorama
Phase 1&2
Phu My
Hung,

The Manor

Saigon
Pearl

Qun 7

Qun
Bnh
Thnh
Qun
Bnh
Thnh

Corp.

96 cn h: 123-222

Phu My Hung Din tch: 122-374

2,200

100%

1,0001,100

100%

1,300

100%

1,3001,400

100%

1,3001,500

100%

Corp.

(3 phng ng)

Bitexco

2 phng ng, din tch:100113-3 phng ng, din

1,400tch:123-164-4 phng ng, 2,300
din tch:190-260
2-phng ng loi:78-89

VN Land SSG

3-phng ng loi:132-140
4-phng ng loi:203-235

1,2001,500

100%

97%

5-phng ng loi:290
Hung Vuong
Qun 5
Plaza
Ruby Land

Kinh Do Co & Din tch: 117 128

900-1,000 100%

Lam Phan Co.

Qun
Tan Hoang
Tn Ph Thang Co

Din tch (A): 126.3 (3

550-600
phng ng). Din tch (B):
112.2 (2 phng ng). Din

Trang 8

85%

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

tch (C): 104.2 (2 phng

ng). Din tch (D): 104.9 (2
phng ng). Din tch (E):
45.6 (1 phng ng)
Hoang
Thap Plaza

Huyn
Bnh
Chnh

Hoang Thap
Co.

Din tch: 97-113

530-750

100%

Hnh 3: S s chung c cao cp ti Tp HCM

C th thy tr ta nh Estella , tt c cc ta nh khc u c t l bn c t 85%
tr ln. Nhn vo biu bn di ta thy s cn h cao cp gi trn 1500USD/m2 c
xu hng tng nhanh n 2006, v dc bit l vo nm 2006, cc chung c c gi t
1500-2000USD bn rt chy. Nhn tng th s cn h bn c n nm 2006 chng
ta thy r s lng cn h bn c rt ln. iu ny phn nh thu nhp tng ln ca
ngi dn v s pht trin ca th trng bt ng sn.
Biu cng th hin s pht trin ca th trng bt ng sn c tng quan cht vi
th trng chng khon. Cc nh u t chng khon trong v ngoi nc thu c li
nhun cao u t vo th trng bt ng sn, kch thch th trng bt ng sn
pht trin. Trong tng lai, th trng chng khon ngy cng pht trin, y cng l
mt yu t quan trng tc ng mnh n nhu cu cn h cao cp ni ring v th
trng bt ng sn ni chung.
Mt yu t quan trng na tc ng n nhu cu cn h cao cp l u t nc ngoi
v kiu hi. Theo thng tin ca bo Si Gn s ra ngy 29/11/2007 tng FDI u t
vo Vit Nam 11 thng u nm l 15 t USD ( c nm 2006 l 10,2 t USD) tng

Trang 9

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

13% so vi k hoch nm. Dng tin FDI ny ngoi vic u t vo cc khu cng
nghip, khu ch xut, th trng chng khon, cn u t vo th trng bt ng
sn (6.73% nm 2006) thng qua u c hoc phc v cho nhu cu nh ca ngi
nc ngoi sinh sng v lm vic ti Vit Nam. i vi dng kiu hi, nm 2007,
dng kiu hi v Vit nam qua knh chnh thc l 5,5 t USD 2 (c nm 2006 l 4,7
t USD). Theo mt cn b ngn hng nh nc m bo tui tr a tin, th ngun tin
kiu hi ny ngoi mc ch gip thn nhn, p ng nhu cu mua sm cui nm
cn u t vo th trng bt ng sn v th trng chng khon
Bn cnh , theo cng ty chng khon Bo Vit (BVSC), c n hn 90% cng ty
nim yt trn sn giao dch chng khon Tp HCM pht hnh thm c phiu vi mc
ch u t vo cc d n xy dng cao c v vn phng cho thu. VietRees d kin
mc tng trng th trng bt ng sn Vit Nam nm 2008 c th t trn 50% so
vi nm 2007.
Nhn chung nhu cu nh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh rt cao do tc tng dn s ln
ca thnh ph (3,06%/nm). S tng trng kinh t (8,5%) ko theo thu nhp ngi
dn tng (5,8%)3 do nhu cu nh cng tng. Bn cnh n ln sng u t ca
nc ngoi(FDI) tng (trn 15 t USD), kiu hi tng (5,5 t USD) cng ko theo nhu
cu nh tng do u c. Chnh v th vic u t xy dng chung c cao cp 57 59
Phm Ngc Thch l ph hp vi thc t th trng cng nh chnh sch pht trin
nh ca nh nc.
2.3.2. Tnh hnh cung ng nh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh
Nu ch tnh th trng cn h chung c ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, theo bo co
Vietnam's Property Market Presentation ca cng ty CB Richard Ellis (thng 9/2007):

2 Ngun bo Si Gn nhan Kiu hi v tr tu Vit Kiu s ra ngy 29/11/2007

3 Thu nhp u ngi tng 5,8% sau khi tr tng gi (ngun bo Si Gn nhan
nn kinh t Vit Nam ang pht trin bn vng hn s ra ngy 29/11/2007
Trang 10

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

Hnh 4: S d n v cn h c xy dng qua cc nm

Ghi ch : Condos (chung c)
Projects (d n)
Units (cn h)
Vi nhu cu nh nu trn (phn 4.3.1), theo S Xy dng, trong 6 thng u nm
2007, tng din tch sn xy dng chung ca TP l trn 3 triu m, trong din tch
nh mi t trn 2,9 triu m (tng khong 2,7% so vi cng k nm 2006), cn
thiu khong 3.6 triu m so vi ch tiu t ra (14m2/ngi n nm 2010).

Thng k ca CBRE v cung ng nh sau 6 thng cui nm 2007 n 2009:

Hnh 5: Thng k s cn h c xy dng n nm 2011
(Ngun : Vietnam's Property Market Presentation - CB Richard Ellis (thng 9/2007))

Trang 11

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

T biu ny ta thy tng s cn h n nm 2010 l 33943

(4313+9395+9931+10304) cn h. Tnh trung bnh din tch mi cn h l 100 m2 th
n nm 2009 tng s din tch nh khong 3,4 triu m2. Nh vy vn cn thiu
khon 0,2 triu m2 nh theo ch tiu ca chnh ph t ra.
2.4. PHN TCH CNH TRANH.
2.4.1. Cc i th hin ti
Hin ti, i th l cc chung c, villa, nh ang xy dng v s a vo khai thc
n nm 2010. Theo s liu thng k ca CBRE th n nm 2010 s c thm trn
34000 cn h na c a vo s dng. y l con s thng k hin ti, s thc t c
th hn nhiu. iu ny cho thy s pht trin nhanh chng ca th trng bt ng
sn v s cnh tranh gia cc ch u t nhm a sn phm ra th trng sm p
ng nhu cu th trng. Bn di l thng k v s cn h bn c trong thi gian t
2001-09/2007 ca CBRE:

Hnh 6: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2001-09/2007

Hnh 7: Biu t trng s lng cn h bn c trong thi gian 2006-09/2007

(Ngun: Vietnam's Property Market Presentation - CB Richard Ellis (thng 9/2007))
Trang 12

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

Bng 4: Thng k s lng cn h bn c tng ng vi gi

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

> 2000 $

63

110

209

105

1501-2000$

41

118

194

953

1001-1500$

17

547

1169

2360

600-1000$

56

544

1213

2010

2320

2682

< 600$

655

417

2237

3624

Thng qua 2 biu ny cho thy cc cn h c gi t 600-1000USD chim t trng

cao bi n ph hp vi thu nhp ca ngi dn. Cc cn h c gi trn 2000 USD
chim t trng thp 2,13%. Tuy nhin t hai biu chng ta thy c mt s gia tng
r rt v nhu cu cn h cao cp trong gia on 2006-2007. y l mt c hi cho cc
nh u t xy dng chung c cao cp trong tng lai.
Trong lnh vc kinh doanh bt ng sn c mt c th rt quan trong to nn li th
cnh tranh tuyt i cho ch u t l v tr cn h. Chnh yu t ny tc ng n
mi mt nh gi c, vn u t, i tng khch hng, kh nng thu hi vn u t,
Cho nn cc cn h no xy dng gn khu trung tm thnh ph s c li th nhiu hn.
Hin ti c theo thng k ca CBRE th c 6 cn h cao cp s hon tt vo nm 2009:

Central
Garden-D.1

Hng
Vng
Plaza-D.5

Cantavil-D.2 River
Garden-D.2

Capitaland
Vista-D.2

Bn Thnh

Hnh 8: 6 cn h cao cp dc khnh thnh vo nm 2009

y v cc cn h cao cp bao tch hp c trung tm thng mi v vn phng cho
thu nn to thun li ln cho khch hng. Khch hng s c li th v tit kim
thi gian trong cuc sng v to khng gian sng thoi mi, tin nghi nhng cng c
nhc im l xa trung tm thnh ph.
2.4.2. Cc i th tim nng
Th trng bt ng sn v th trng chng khon pht trin lm cho nn kinh t
pht trin gp phn nng cao thu nhp cho ngi dn. Thu nhp tng ko theo yu cu
cao hn nn s pht trin ca cc khu bit th cao cp ngoi thnh ph vi gi cnh
tranh nh Ph Gia, Tho Nguyn, Th c Garden, Villa Riviera, An Ph ng l i

Trang 13

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

th tim nng ca d n. Gi bn cc cn h ny cng rt cnh tranh vi cc cn h

cao cp khu trung tm thnh ph. Theo thng k v gi c ca cc villa ti thnh ph
HCM, trong thi gian t 2001-Q2/2007 gi tng t nht l 62%.

Hnh 9: Xu hng gi ca cc khu bit th: Ph Gia Villa Riviera Th c

Garden Home.

y thc s l cc i th tim nng vi li th hn hn v s thoi mi, tin nghi

nhng li c nhc im l xa khu trung tm.
2.5. NHN DNG IM MNH-YU,C HI-NGUY C .
T phn tch th trng kt hp vi vi thng tin cung cp t cc anh ch trong ban
qun l d n ca cng ty An Ph v nhng mt mnh v mt yu trong ni b cng ty
c th tm tt nhng im mnh - im yu c hi - nguy c nh sau:

Trang 14

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

im mnh

im yu

D n c mt v tr cc k p nm gia trung
tm thnh ph - nh phn tch phn c im
a l kh hu v iu kin t nhin . iu ny s
lm tng sc mua khi d n c a vo khai thc
.

Cn thiu kinh nghim v lnh vc

mi v a c.

D tho v chnh sch nh cho ngi nc ngoi

ca B xy dng trnh Th tng ph chun cho
php ngi nc ngoi nh c lu di Vit Nam
c php s hu nh.

gn b gia 2 th h nhn vin

cng nhn v mt hng v mc
ch duy nht ca Cng ty.

Cha c mi quan h vng mnh

& tin cy kim sot c cc
qui trnh ph duyt th tc php l
Vit Nam gia nhp WTO, s lng ngi nc ca cc d n.
ngoi sng v lm vic Vit Nam cng cao.
Cha c s thng quan im v

Cng ty cha c h thng lm vic

Lut nh nm 2005 cho php Vit Kiu nh c r rng, cht ch, cha th so snh
lu di ti Vit Nam c quyn s hu nh.
vi cc cng ty nng ng nh cc
cng ty nc ngoi.
V ni b doanh nghip:
Nng lc, mi quan h ca TG:
S quan tm pht trin nhn s v Cng ty.
S h tr v quan h, php l, ti
HQT.

chnh ca

B my cn b tr, yu ngh & mun hc hi.

B my cn b c kinh nghim trong lnh vc
XNK & ti chnh k ton.
Cng ty c uy tn trn thng trng nhiu nm.

Trang 15

Chng 2: Phn tch th trng

C hi

Nguy c

S Vit kiu v nc nh c ngy cng tng do

ng v nh nc c chnh sch thu ht Vit kiu
hi hng nh Ngh quyt 36NQ/TW ca B
chnh tr ng cng sn Vit Nam v cng tc i
vi ngi Vit Nam nc ngoi , quyt nh
135/2007/Q-TTg ca th tng chnh ph Ban
hnh quy ch v min th thc cho ngi Vit Nam
nh c nc ngoi

Cc i th cnh tranh ngy cng

ln mnh.
Cc ngn hng cng nhy vo cuc
cnh tranh thnh lp cng ty bt
ng sn
Gi t ti thnh ph ngy cng
cao.

Xu hng s dng tin t th trng chng khon Th h nhn s tip ni cha c

sn k tha.
u t vo bt dng sn.
Ngun u t mnh m t cc quc gia Chu Cc quyt nh v quy hoch ln
tng mnh, c bit l t: Hn quc, Nht bn, cha chc chn s c thc hin
theo d kin.
Singapore
S ngi thu nhp cao ngy cng tng.
Nh nc a ra chnh sch u i nh u t
khng phi ng tin s dng t m ch cn n
b gii ta .
y l mt d n phc v dn sinh do chnh y
ban nhn dn qun 3 ng ra ku gi u t nn
chc chn s c to iu kin thun li v mt
th tc hnh chnh t pha chnh quyn qun v
thnh ph.
Cc qu u t nc ngoi rm r c mt ti Vit
Nam.
Cng ty ang thc hin d n Hc Mn 650ha
c xem l mt d n i cho An Ph.
Cng ty ang tip cn d n Hip Bnh Phc c
c hi li cao.

Trang 16

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

CHNG 3: K HOCH TIP TH

3.1. MC TIU K HOCH TIP TH
V phn tip th, hin nay cng ty cha c b phn marketing (xem s t chc).
Hot ng chnh ca cng ty ng vai tr nh l nh u t (investor), tp trung ngun
lc tm kim c hi u t, sau thc hin u t xy dng v bn (chuyn giao).
Cng ty cng khng nhm mc ch xy dng chung c cho thu m nhm mc ch
xy bn thu li nhun v tm kim c hi u t mi. Do d, cng ty An Ph thu
CBRE tip th v bn c quyn cho d n vi mc tiu l bn c ton b s cn h
trc khi d n a vo s dng. iu ny gip cho cng ty thu hi vn trin khai
vo d n khc trong th trng bt dng sn tim nng nh hin nay. K hoch tip
th s c trin khai trong mt nm bt u t u nm 2010 trc khi d n a vo
khai thc.
Bng 5: Bng d ton doanh thu
2010
Gi bn (cha VAT) 2500 USD/m2
Din tch

16,512 m2

Phn trm doanh thu 100%

Doanh thu

$45,408,000 USD

K hoch tip th chia lm 2 giai on:

Giai on tin tip th bt u t u nm 2010 l giai on trc khi tip th chnh
thc cho ta nh 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch. Giai on ny ko di khng qu 3 thng
v trong giai on ny bn CBRE s thc hin cc cng vic:
- Lm vic vi cng ty qung co ch nh, tin hnh cc th tc c mt
k hoch qung co hiu qu, bao gm phc tho chin dch qung co, thit k ti liu
qung co, qung co trn bo ch v bt c ti liu thch hp no, gm c thip mi
v ti liu gi th trc tip ti khch thu.
- Lin lc vi c vn php lut xut nhng sa i nu c, trnh by ti
liu mu hp l, gm bn tha thun ghi nh v hp ng thu.
- xut chin lc tip th ph hp v cho thu gm thi gian thch hp
bt u tip th, gi thu, ph dch v v chnh sch gim gi trong sut thi gian tin
khai trng v ph khuyn khch thch hp v cho thu cho vic cam kt thu trc.
- Lm vic vi i ng nhn vin i ngoi ca khch hng tr gip s
khuch trng, s nhn bit cng khai gm ch dn thng co bo ch, v nhng s
kin, ti liu cn thit khc xc tin mt hnh nh thun li ca d n cho vic khai
trng ta nh.

Trang 17

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

Giai on tip th: khi phng tin tip th ban u sn sng v d n sn sng
tham gia vo th trng, trch nhim ca CBRE s gm cc cng vic:
- a nhng xut cui cng v chi tit v chin lc gi, gm nhng loi
gi khc nhau, din tch mt bng, loi v hng ca mt bng.
- K hoch v phi hp bt u tip th v tip th chnh thc, cng vic
cng bao gm bt c s kin xc tin c bit no.
- xut chnh sch ph khuyn khch thch hp cho vic cam kt mua
trc.
- Thc thi chin dch gi th trc tip n th trng mc tiu v cung cp
nhng phn hi v kt qu ca n.
- Phi hp vi cng ty qung co ch nh cho chin dch v qung co v
khuych trng.
- Cung cp nhn vin tip th thch hp ti d n hng dn khch mua.
- Thit lp th tc tip th v sch hng dn hot ng cho i ng nhn
vin tip th.
- Thit lp ch bo co v tham d hp thng k vi ban qun l ta
nh bo co tin chin dch tip th.
- Bng qung co bn cn h di tn CBRE, bng qung co cho thu s
c duy tr ti ta nh cng vi th t, t thng tin d liu v cp nht cho cc cng
ty mi gii v cc nhm ngi s dng.
3.1.1. Hnh nh.
Phn quan trng nht ca vic a ra tip th cho bt k d n bt ng sn no l hnh
nh tng th ca d n. Do , trong vic tip th ta nh chung c cao cp 57-59
Phm Ngc Thch, cng ty An Ph s kt hp vi CBRE xy dng nh hng v
pht trin mt hnh nh li cun th trng mc tiu. CBRE s h tr trong vic thit
k ti liu tip th v mt chng trnh qung co phn nh hnh nh ny.
3.1.2. Th trng mc tiu.
Nh ban u cp, y l d n ph b chung c c v xy dng chung c mi
tt hn nn khch hng mc tiu u tin l 83 h dn ang sng v lm vic ti chung
c c. i tng khch hng th hai l nhng c nhn, h gia nh trong v ngoi
nc c thu nhp kh. y l hai i tng khch hng chnh ca d n. Ngoi ra, tnh
hnh th trng bt ng sn ti TPHCM ang nng ln di tc ng ca s pht trin
ca th trng chng khon v cc ch s kinh t cho nn c rt nhiu nh u c trong
th trng bt ng sn. Cc nh u c ny cng l i tng khch hng ca d n
nhng y l i tng khch hng t dc u tin hn hai nhm trn.

Trang 18

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

3.1.3. Chun b v k hoch

Theo kinh nghim ca CBRE k hoch tip th nn bt u t nht l trc 18 thng
trc khi hon tt vic xy dng. Tuy nhin trong tnh hnh hin nay, theo kinh
nghim cng ty An Ph quyt nh k hp ng trong 12 thng.
3.1.4. Phng tin tip th (tip cn th trng)
Hin ti, CBRE c rt nhiu phng tin tip th chuyn nghip nhm h tr cho vic
tin hnh c hiu qu cc hot ng kinh doanh, bn v cho thu bt ng sn. Trong
d n ny CBRE s gip nh u t_cng ty An Ph_ thc hin tip th vi cc
phng tin tip th sau:
i ngoi
CBRE s dng qung co trn cc phng tin truyn thng cho ta nh nhm to ra
s cng nhn ca th trng mc tiu. Cc cng vic thit yu ca quan h i ngoi
gm:
Thng co bo ch.
Cc n phm thng k.
Cc s kin c bit, v d nh l ct nc v l khai trng.
Cc hot ng h tr tip th.
Logo
Logo c trnh by trn tt c cc t bm, ti liu qung co v b mt n phm v
trn bt k nhng ti liu in sn no, v d nh phong b th, mt logo thit k p s
to nhiu ng gp cho quan h i ngoi.
Qung co, t bm.
Qung co v t ri chun b sn sng trc khi chin dch tin cho thu. Ch chnh
s c xy dng trong cc n phm cho ph hp vi vic i ngoi v chin dch
qun co.
Ti liu qung co v cc t bm s c s dng rng ri trong mi chin dch gi
th, cc s kin i ngoi v cc thuyt trnh.
Thuyt trnh trn my tnh:
i ng CB Richard Ellis s s dng my tnh mt cch rng ri trong cc bui thuyt
trnh v th trng ni chung v v d n ni ring nhm gii thiu vi khch hng
thu tim nng theo yu cu ca bn An Ph.
Tip th in t
Bn CBRE s thit k nhng tp tin dung lng khong 1MB minh ha sinh ng v
hnh nh ca ta nh v s tip th qua th in t. CBRE s h tr trong vic xc nh
cc khch thu tim nng v phc tho chin lc tip th qua th in t nhm thu ht
khch hng n vi d n ny.

Trang 19

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

Qung co trn trang web.

CBRE s s dng trang web nhm qung co cho d n. Ni dung s bao gm din
mo ca ta nh, bn v mt bng thng thng, cc thng tin cho thu cn bn, v
phng php tip cn. Cc khch hng c yu cu s c gim st v theo ui bi
i l c ch nh.
Qung co
Qung co c thc hin trn c phng tin bo ch, tp san v tp ch a phng
cng nh trong vng. Phong cch v t tng ca qung co v phng tin thng tin
i chng s dng s c xem xt mt cch cn thn bi i l qun co v CBRE
trong mi giai on tip th. CBRE s h tr trong vic thit k cc ti liu khuych
trng (bao gm c s tay qung co v bng v mt bng in c ln) nhm phn nh
hnh nh ca d n. S tay qung co s c in bng c ting Anh v ting Vit.
Cc thit k v sn phm ca cc cng c qung co s c s dng ti thi im
khai trng d n.
Bn tin
Biu hin ngay ti cng trng.
Gi th ti khch hng mua
Th ng v s tay cho khch thu s c gi ti khch hng tim nng. S tay ny s
c thit k ring cho d n v c in trn ba cng nhiu mu sc. S tay cng
c nh km c bn , s mt bng d n v s mt bng cn h. Th ng s
nh mt bng tm tt ngn gn vch ra nhng chi tit, tnh ch li, v nhiu c tnh
khc ca d n.CBRE s chun b danh sch th gi tp trung vo phn th trng
mc tiu.
in thoi.
CBRE s lin lc vi nhng i din chu trch nhim tm kim cn h chung c.
Nhng cuc tr chuyn qua in thoi thu ht nhiu u mi giao dch t cc khch
hng mua. T nhng cuc in thoi ny cng vi vic trin khai thc hin cc th
ng pha trn, khch hng tng lai s nhn c dch v bn nh trn gi v c
theo ui bng nhng cuc in thoi c th trao i nhiu hn v nhu cu c th
ca mnh.
3.1.5. Nguyn nhn chn CBRE lm tip th v bn hng.
Cng ty CBRE c cc u im vt tri:
Cc mi quan h c
L mt cng ty mi gii v cung cp dch v bt ng sn, Sau mt thi gian, CBRE
c nhiu mi quan h cht ch vi mt s lng ln khch hng mua trn ton Vit
Nam cng nh nhng khch hng trn th trng quc t. Nhng mi quan h ny cho
php CBRE tip xc trc tip vi khch hng mua t bit ny. Nhng mi quan h
ny c tnh cht quyt nh trong vic hnh thnh s tn nhim ca d n v nhanh
chng nhn c s phn hi t cng ng khch hng tng lai.

Trang 20

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

Cng tc vi nh mi gii bn ngoi.

Bn cnh s cng tc trong ni b, gia cc vn phng ti Vit Nam vi nhau, CBRE
c s cng tc rng vi cng ng cc nh mi gii bn ngoi. Hng thng, CBRE s
gi nhng s tay qung co vi mc ch tip th ti cc vn phng i l cp nht
cho cc nh mi gii trung gian v nhng ch trng trong ta nh chung ch 57-59
Phm Ngc Thch.
Hin ti, cng ty An ph cha c b phn tip th v hot ng trong th trng bt
ng sn di vai tr l nh u t cn v phn dch v bt ng sn s nh bn cng
ty t vn v cung cp dch v (CBRE).
3.2. NH GI
Gi cn h trc ht phi ph hp vi mc sng ca khch hng.
Theo tng cc thng k th trung bnh thu nhp trn u ngi ti TPHCM l
2200USD/ nm, ngha l mt ngi c thu nhp trung bnh khong 36 triu ng th
khng th mua ni cn h 100m2. Thc t thu nhp ca ngi dn thnh ph c s
khc bit rt ln. S ngi c thu nhp t 1000USD/ thng tr ln khng phi l t.
Hn na v tr cn h cch khu trung tm thnh ph khong 600m l iu kin rt
thun li cho nhng ngi c thu nhp trn trung bnh sinh sng v lm vic.

Hnh 10: Biu thu nhp GDP bnh qun trn u ngi ti Tp HCM
Source: Tng cc thng k (General stastictis department)
Th hai gi bn ph hp vi gi th trng.
Theo s liu ca cng ty CBRE gi bn trung bnh cn h chung c cao cp ti Qun
1_ ln cn vi ni d n ta lc nh sau:
n v tnh : USD/m2

Trang 21

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

Hnh 11: Biu bin ng gi trung bnh chung c cao cp ti qun 1.

(Ngun : Vietnam's Property Market Presentation - CB Richard Ellis (thng 9/2007))
Bng 6: Bng gi cn h cao cp ti Qun 1
Tn cn h

Gi bn (USD)

Din tch (m2)

S lng (cn h)

Lancaster

4200

2500

90

Avalon

3600

51

Pasteur Court

3300

252

Indochina
Tower (IPT)
Horizon

Park 2500

10000

1400

Trang 22

50

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

2500USD/m2
0.7 km

CBD_

1400USD/m2
1.7 km

3000 USD/m2
0.6 km

3300USD/m2
0.4 km

Central
District

Lancaster
4200USD/m2

Business

3600USD/m2
0.3 km

Hnh 12: Hnh v tinh v tr chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch so vi cc chung
c khc.
T bn google chng ta thy r khong cch cng xa trung tm thnh ph gi cn
h cng gim. Cn h cao cp 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch n trung tm kinh doanh
thnh ph (CBD) gn bng khong cch t Indochina Park Tower vo CBD. Gi bn
mt cn h ti chung c Indochina l 2500 USD/m2 nn y cng l c s chn gi
bn cho chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch (cht lng ca hai cn tng ng
nhau). Hn na xu hng gi t trong tng lai s tng nn cng ty quyt nh chn
gi bn cn h ti thiu l 2500 USD/m2.
Tham kho gi bn t vn CBRE, c bit gi bn mt cn h cao cp hin nay ti
qun 3 nm trn ng Phm Ngc Thch l >3000USD/m 2. Tuy nhin tng tnh
kh thi cho d n v phng ri ro khng lng trc c, An ph n nh gi ti
thiu l 2500USD/m2.
3.3. CHI PH TIP TH V PHNG THC THANH TON.
3.3.1. Ph t vn
Ph t vn duy tr mc c nh l 3000USD mi qu cho vai tr t vn tip th.
Khon ph ca qu u tin s c thanh ton cho CBRE trong vng 7 ngy lm vic
sau khi hp ng c k kt.

Trang 23

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

3.3.2. Ph tip th bn c quyn

Ph tip th bn c quyn cho mi hp ng c k kt thnh cng trong sut thi
hn hiu lc ca hp ng s l 1,8% tr gi hp ng.
70% ph hoa hng cho mi hp ng k kt thnh cng s thanh ton cho CBRE trong
vng 7 ngy lm vic sau khi ch u t nhn c thanh ton u tin t khch mua.
30% ph hoa hng cho mi hp ng k kt thnh cng s thanh ton cho CBRE vo
thi im thanh l hp ng.
3.3.3. Ph hnh chnh
Ph hnh chnh l 150USD trn mi cn h nu bn i l tip th bn c quyn thc
hin cc cng vic hnh chnh bao gm chun b hp ng, phiu thanh ton ca t
thanh ton u tin cho bt k cn h no do ch u t bn ra trong thi hn b
nhim bng vn bn. Ph ny s cng thm 30% VAT v s c thanh ton ngay khi
khch hng mua thanh ton tin t cc.
Ph hnh chnh p dng i vi khch hng do ch u t gii thiu. Trong thc t
khch hng ln nht ca d n l 83 h dn ang sng v lm vic ti chung c c.
Nhng trn thc t rt kh xc nh c chnh xc c bao nhiu khch hng ng
ti nh c ti chung c mi. Nhm d tr chi ph pht sinh trong qu trnh tip th
cng ty xem chi ph tip th l 2% doanh thu (bao gm VAT).
Bng 7: bng tnh chi ph tip th
Doanh thu (USD)

$45,408,000

Chi ph tip th v hoa hng (gm VAT) 2%

Chi ph t vn thip th

$12000

Chi ph tip th v hoa hng

$817344

3.4. NGUN LC THC HIN

CBRE s cung cp 3 nhn vin kinh doanh v ch u t s tin c mt k ton cho d
n_ng nguyn Vn A. ng A cng l ph trch mng k ton ca cng ty. V y l
d n nh, cc nghip v kinh t pht sinh khng nhiu nn trong tng lai s khng
tuyn thm nhn vin cho d n b phn ny. Phng kinh doanh s hot ng 7 ngy
mt tun t 8:30 n 18:00. Mc lng phi tr cho ng A hin nay l 300USD v
tng 10% mi nm.Chi ph lng ca ng A s l:

Trang 24

Chng 3: K hoch tip th

Bng 8: bng tnh lng nhn vin k ton

S lng
Nhn vin
Tng lng/thng
k ton.
Tng lng/nm

300

330

363

399

439

3600

3960

4356

4792

5271

Trang 25

Chng 4: K hoch hot ng

CHNG 4: K HOCH HOT NG

4.1. MC TIU V K HOCH HOT NG
Trong 3 nm t 01/2008 n cui nm 2010 hon tt xy dng d nv bn giao cho
khch hng.
4.2. NGUN LC THC HIN.
Mi d n cng ty u c ban qun l d n kim sot hot ng ca d n trong
sut qu trnh hot ng. C th ban qun l d n gm cc v tr nh sau:
1. Mt nhn vin nghin cu v pht trin d n.
2. Mt nhn vin php l
3. Mt nhn vin k ton.
4. Mt nhn vin thit k.
5. Mt nhn vin qun l v kim sot ti chnh ca d n.
y l 5 ngi chu trch nhim qun l d n cho n khi d n i vo hot ng tt.
Ba nm u xy xng ban qun l d n lm vic vi nhau kim sot hot ng ca
d n. Trong hai nm sau , nhn vin thit k v nhn vin pht trin d n s chm
dt vai tr kim sot d n m ch v tr c vn khi cn thit. Cc nhn vin cn li
vn duy tr hot ng trong sut thi gian hot ng d n.
Nm 2008
Nm 2008 hon tt khu thit k, th tc php l v nhanh chng tin hnh n b gii
ta. Do d n thuc din u i u t nn v phn th tc php l cng c n
gin ha v mt t thi gian hn. Sau khi hon tt th tc php l cng ty s tin hnh
m thu chn nh u t xy dng. Thi gian m thu v chn nh u t thch hp
theo tiu chun cng ty ra l khong 1 thng. Cng ty An Ph s kt hp vi chnh
quyn qun 3 nhanh chng hon tt n b gii ta trong vng 6 thng sau s tin
hnh l ng th khi cng xy dng d n. Di y l cc thng s u t d ton:
Bng 9: bng thng s t v thng s quy hoch xy dng
1. Thng s n b
Din tch t:

2,752.00

m2

Din tch xy dng:

1,531.56

m2

Mt xy dng:

56%

S tng xy dng:

tng

Tng din tch s dng:

6,126.24

m2

Trang 26

Chng 4: K hoch hot ng

T l sn s dng:

70%

Din tch cc h s dng:

4,288.37

m2

Din tch phi n b:

4,288.37

m2

Nu gi n b bng gi bn cn h sau khi xy dng + 20%

Din tch n b

5,146.04

m2

n gi n b

2750

USD

2. Cc thng s quy hoch v xy dng:

n v

Mt xy dng

50%

Din tch xy dng

1,376.00

m2

S tng cao

15

tng

Tng din tch ta nh

20,640.00

m2

S tng hm (1 tng xe t, 1 tng xe my)

tng

Tng din tch tng hm

2,752.00

m2

Din tch 1 xe t

25

m2

S ch xe t

55

ch

Din tch 1 xe my

m2

S ch xe my

459

ch

T l sn s dng

80%

Din tch cn h bn

165,512

m2

n gi xy dng cn h

550

USD

n gi xy dng tng hm

400

USD

Ph xe t hng thng

100

USD

Ph xe my hng thng

10

USD

Ph dch v tin ch (an ninh v v sinh hng

thng)/ thng
10

USD

Chi ph xy dng ta nh

USD

11352000

Trang 27

Chng 4: K hoch hot ng

Chi ph xy dng tng hm

1100800

USD

Tng chi ph xy dng

12452800

USD

V phn chi ph xy dng s c thanh ton cho bn thu theo 3 giai on tng ng
vi t l 30% nm nht, 40% nm 2, 30% nm 3, theo tng thi im tha thun gia
hai bn.
Chi ph php l, t vn, gim st, t chc u thu v cc chi ph pht sinh khc chim
5% tng chi ph xy dng v c chia u cho 3 nm xy dng.
Nm 2009
Trong nm ny, mi hot ng xy dng tin hnh theo ng k hoch m k kt vi
nh thu. Cng ty s gim st cht ch tin xy dng ca d n. Tin hnh r sot
cc hot ng xem c ng cht lng v tin nh k hoch t ra khng, cng nh
nhn dng cc ri ro khng lng trc c th gp phi m trong giai on xy dng
k hoch cha nhn ra.
Nm 2010
Giai on ny v l thuyt hon tt xong xong 70% cng trnh v 30% phn cn li
s c hon thnh v bn giao cho khch hng vo cui nm 2010. Do , vo u
nm 2010 cng ty s tin hnh chin lc tip th cho d n. Hp ng s c k kt
gia 2 bn: cng ty An Ph_ch u t v cng ty CBRE_t vn, tip th v bn c
quyn cn h cho d n. Hai bn s k kt hp ng theo cc iu khon trong bn
hp ng nh km phn ph lc. y l bn hp ng mang tch cht tham kho ti
thi im lp d n, do kinh nghim trong qu kh tng hp tc vi CBRE trong
nhiu d n. Cc chi ph d ton c tnh phn tip th.
Vo thng 10/2010 cng ty s tin hnh lp t cc trang thit b ni tht cho ta nh
bo gm: My lnh, my qut, cc thit b in, nc, ADSL, cc thit b v sinh
(My nc nng, bn tm, ru-mi-n, bn cu, bn ra mt, gng,...), cc thit b ni
tht cn phng ( ca, knh, chung nh, in thoi,).
Chi ph khu hao.
Cng ty khng bn ht ton b ta nh m gi li hai tng kinh doanh. Hai tng
ny xem nh l ti sn c nh ca cng ty. Cng ty s kinh doanh trong sut 50 nm.
Chi ph khu hao s c tnh trong 20 nm cho hai tng hm v theo phng php
khu hao u.Bng tnh khu hao nh sau:
Bng 10: Bng tnh chi ph khu hao hai tng hm
Nguyn gi
Ta nh (hai tng hm) 2765696

Nm tnh khu hao 2011

2012

20

$138,285

$138,285

$138,285

$138,285

Tng

Trang 28

Chng 4: K hoch hot ng

Nm 2011
y l thi im kt thc d n, thu hi vn u t v bt u trin khai k hoch khai
thc hai tng hm gi xe v cc dch v tin ch. Cng ty cng s khng u t thm
m ch thu thm 2 nhn vin v sinh v 4 nhn vin bo v v 4 nhn vin gi xe v
mt nhn vin qun l duy tr hot ng ca hai tng hm v ta nh. Chi ph hot
ng khc sau khi bn ht cn h l 10% doanh thu nm . Chi ph ny bao gm cc
chi ph nh chi ph mua trang phc cho nhn vin bo v, nhn vin v sinh, nhn vin
gi xe; chi ph tuyn dng, chi ph cn thit mua dng c v sinh, thit b lin lc cho
nhn vin bo v, v cc chi ph khc pht sinh cho 3 cng vic: gi xe, bo v v v
sinh cho ta nh. Chi ph ny khng bao gm chi ph lng. Chi ph lng ca 8 nhn
vin nh sau:
S lng
Nhn vin bo v

Nhn vin gi xe

Tng lng/thng 100

110

121

133

146

Tng lng/nm

6389

7028

S lng

Tng lng/thng 100

110

121

133

146

Tng lng/nm

6389

7028

S lng

110

121

133

146

Nhn vin v sinh Tng lng/thng 100

Tng lng/nm

3194

3514

S lng

275

303

333

366

3300

3630

3993

4392

Nhn vin qun l Tng lng/thng 250

Tng lng/nm

3000

Nm 2012
Vn tip tc duy tr hot ng kinh doanh 2 tng xe v 2 dch v tin ch v sinh v
an ninh.

Trang 29

Chng 5: K hoch nhn s

CHNG 5: K HOCH NHN S

5.1. MC TIU K HOCH NHN S
Trong cng ty c tt c l 27 nhn vin. Phn ln nhn s trong cng ty ln tui
gn b vi cng ty t khi thnh lp doanh nghip cch y 15 nm. Ngun nhn s tr
trong cng ty cn hn ch v thiu kinh nghim. Do mc tiu ca cng ty trong thi
gian ti l tp trung vo cng tc o to.
B phn marketing ang cn khuyt, trong cng ty cha c b phn chuyn trch v
mng ny. Nhim v quan trng na ca cng ty l xy dng b phn tip th nng
ng hiu qu thch hp vi vn ha doanh nghip vng trong tng lai cng ty An
Ph s t xy dng k hoch tip th cho ring mnh.
S t chc cng ty An Ph:

5.2. YU CU NGUN NHN LC.

D n chung c 57-59 Phm Ngc Thch, vn kh nht l nhn bit c c hi
u t v ri ro nh hng n li nhun. Cc vn cn li nhn chung l n gin.
Cc hot qun l ta nh ch yu l cc hot ng lin quan n an ninh, v sinh v
bo m cht lng ta nh trong thi gian cam kt. Ngun nhn s qun l d n
gm c cc thnh vin hnh thnh ban qun l d n cho cn h:
Mt nhn vin nghin cu v pht trin d n.
Mt nhn vin php l
Mt nhn vin k ton.
Mt nhn vin thit k.
Trang 30

Chng 5: K hoch nhn s

Mt nhn vin qun l v kim sot ti chnh ca d n.

y l 5 ngi chu trch nhim qun l d n trong sut thi gian hot ng (tr
nhn vin thit k v nhn vin nghin cu pht trin d n).
Sau khi bn ht cn h cho ngi dn vic tip theo l khai thc tng hm v dch
v tin ch (an ninh v v sinh). V mt nhn s phn ny cn 10 nhn vin vi v tr
nu trong k hoch hot ng.
5.3. TUYN DNG.
V mt tuyn dng cng ty s khng tin hnh tuyn dng thm bt k nhn vin no
ngoi cc nhn vin k trn. Trong trng hp nhn vin ngh vic v mt l do no
, b phn nhn s s tin hnh tuyn dng thay th vo v tr nhn vin ngh.
5.4. CHNH SCH O TO
Cng ty vn lun duy tr cc kha o to u n mi nm 2 ln cho cc nhn vin tr
thiu kinh nghim. Mc tiu chnh ca chnh sch o to l nng cao nng lc, kinh
nghim v kin thc cho nhn vin.
5.5. CH LNG.
Cng ty s duy tr chnh sc tng lng l 10%/ nm ngoi ra cng ty s c chnh sch
thng t bit i vi nhn vin c n lc ln v ng gp nhiu cho cng ty. Hnh
thc thng ty thuc v tng s ng gp ca nhn vin. Di y l bn tnh lng
cc cc nhn vin tham gia d n.
Bng 11: Bng tnh chi ph lng nhn vin
B phn chc nng

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

440

484

5280

5808

Tng lng/thng 300

330

363

399

439

Tng lng/nm

3600

3960

4356

4792

5271

S lng

Tng lng/thng 300

330

363

399

439

Tng lng/nm

3960

4356

4792

5271

S lng
1
Nhn vin nghin
cu v pht trin Tng lng/thng 400
d n.
Tng lng/nm 4800
S lng
Nhn vin php l

Nhn vin k ton.

3600

Trang 31

Chng 5: K hoch nhn s

S lng

330

363

3960

4356

550

605

666

732

6600

7260

7986

8785

Tng lng/thng 100

110

121

133

146

Tng lng/nm

6389

7028

S lng

Tng lng/thng 100

110

121

133

146

Tng lng/nm

6389

7028

S lng

Tng lng/thng 100

110

121

133

146

Tng lng/nm

3194

3514

S lng

Tng lng/thng 250

275

303

333

366

Tng lng/nm

3000

3300

3630

3993

4392

21600

23760

26136

33541 36895

Nhn vin thit k. Tng lng/thng 300

Tng lng/nm

3600

S lng
1
Nhn vin qun l
v kim sot ti Tng lng/thng 500
chnh ca d n.
Tng lng/nm 6000
S lng
Nhn vin bo v

Nhn vin gi xe

Nhn vin v sinh

Nhn vin qun l

Tng chi ph lng Tng lng/nm

Trang 32

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

CHNG 6: K HOCH TI CHNH

6.1. GI NH TI CHNH
Bn k hoch kinh doanh dc lp trong 5 nm bt u t nm 01/2008 n cui nm
2012. Ly nm ti chnh bt u t 01/01 n ngy 31/12 hng nm.
Thi gian hon tt th tc php l v n b gii ta l 6 thng.
Bng 12: Mt s gi nh chnh cho d n
T l cn h bn c

100%

T l cho thu bi gi xe t

80%

T l cho thu bi gi xe my
Sut sinh li k vng ca ch u
t nu c ti tr bng 100%
vn ch s hu

80%

Li sut ngn hng vay di hn

7.5%

T trng vn ch s hu

50%

T trng vn vay

50%

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

28%

VAT

10%

12%

Cc gi nh lin quan ti chi ph v thu nhp:

Chi ph tip th v hoa hng l 2% doanh thu bao gm VAT
Chi ph t vn th trng l c nh 3000USD/qu theo bo gi ca CBRE.
Cng ty khng chia c tc trong 5 nm u hot ng.
Chi ph hot ng khc sau khi bn ht cn h l 10% doanh thu nm . Chi ph ny
bao gm cc chi ph nh chi ph mua trang phc cho nhn vin bo v, nhn vin v
sinh, nhn vin gi xe; chi ph tuyn dng, chi ph cn thit mua dng c v sinh, thit
b lin lc cho nhn vin bo v, v cc chi ph khc pht sinh cho 3 cng vic : gi xe,
bo v v v sinh cho ta nh. Chi ph ny khng bao gm chi ph lng.
Chi ph xy dng c phn b trong 3 nm theo t l l 30%-40%-30% tng chi ph
xy xng tng ng vi 3 nm 2008-2009-2010.
Chi ph d phng c tnh l 5% tng chi ph xy dng v c phn b u cho 3
nm 2008-2009-2010.
Chi ph php l, gim st, cc chi ph lin quan ti chn thu xy dng c tnh 5%
chi ph xy dng.
Trang 33

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Chi ph lng v cc chi ph hot ng u dc thanh ton bng tin.

Gi n b xy dng cao hn gi bn 20% v ngi n b c th chn theo hai cch
l i ly cn h mi hoc bn li cho doanh nghip.
To nh hon thnh v giao cho khch hng vo cui nm 2010 v k hoch bn hng
khng c chnh sch tr chm.
Chi ph li vay di hn ca ngn hng l 7,5%/nm v c nh trong 3 nm.
Chi ph s dng vn s hu l 12% theo kinh nghim hot ng 15 nm trong ngnh
bt ng sn ca doanh nghip.
Cc dng tin c tnh vo cui nm.
Cc khon thu thng no ng thng . Thu thu nhp ng d s c khu tr vo
thng k tip. Thu nhp chu thu m s c khu tr vo thng sau .
6.2. CU TRC NGUN VN.
Bng 13: Cu trc ngun vn
Vn u t

30000000

Vn ch s hu

15000000

Vn vay

15000000

Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun ca d n theo l thuyt M&M c tnh nh sau:

Chi phi s dng vn ch s hu khi c ti tr bng n vay:12%+(12%-7.5%)*(10.28)*1=15.24%
Chi phi s dng vn bnh qun l: WACC=7.5%*(1-0.28)+15.24%*0.5=10.32%
6.3. MC TIU TI CHNH
Mc tiu then cht ca k hoch ti chnh l bo m s ph hp gia chi ph v li
nhun ng vi ri ro nht nh. C th, k hoch ti chnh m bo tin trang
tri cc hot ng cn thit ti tng thi im, tnh ton phng cch ti u thu hi
vn nhanh nht nhm ti u t vo cc d n khc.
6.4. CC BO CO TI CHNH D TON
Quy c: n v tin t tnh l USD
Bng 14: Bo co kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh d ton

Trang 34

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

2008
1
Doanh thu
Thu t bn cn h
Thu t tng gi xe t
Thu t tng gi xe my
Thu t cung cp dch v tin ch
Tng doanh thu
Cc khon gim tr (VAT)
Doanh thu rng
Chi ph
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph khu hao
Chi ph lng
Chi ph hot ng khc (sau khi bn ht cn h)
Chi ph qun l v bn hng
Chi ph t vn thip th
Chi ph tip th v hoa hng
Tng hp chi ph
Li nhun gp
Chi ph li vay
Li nhun trc thu
Thu nhp chu thu
Thu thu nhp
Li nhun sau thu
Chia c tc
Li nhun gi li

Trang 35

$0
$0
$0

2009
2

$0
$0
$0

2010
3

2011
4

2012
5

$45,408,000

$0
$52,800
$44,064
$19,800
$116,664
$10,500
$106,164

$52,800
$44,064
$19,800
$116,664
$10,500
$106,164

$212,807
$33,541
$11,666

$212,807
$36,895
$11,666

$258,015
-$151,850
$375,000
-$526,850
$0
$0
-$526,850
$0
-$526,850

$261,369
-$155,204
$0
-$155,204
$0
$0
-$155,204
$0
-$155,204

$45,408,000
$4,457,866
$40,950,134
$23,665,050

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0

$0
$0
$1,125,000
-$1,125,000
$0
$0
-$1,125,000
$0
-$1,125,000

$12,000
$817,344
$24,494,394
$16,455,740
$750,000
$15,705,740
$14,580,740
$4,082,607
$11,623,133
$0
$11,623,133

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Hnh 13: Biu doanh thu ca d n

th cho thy hai nm u xy dng d n khng c li do dang trong thi gian xy
dng nn cha c li nhun. Sang nm th 3,li nhun dng ln do bn ht cn h.
Li nhun ny b p chi ph v to ra li nhun sau thu kh ln hn 11 triu
USD. Cc nm sau li nhun cng s dng tr nm 4 v nm 5 v trong nm ny phi
tr li v vn gc.

Trang 36

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Bng 15: Bng cn i k ton d ton

Bng cn i k ton
Ti sn
Ti sn lu ng
Tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin mt
Khon phi thu
Ti sn lu ng rng
Ti sn c nh
t xy dng
Ta nh
Khu hao tch ly
Ti sn c nh rng
Tng ti sn
Ngun vn
N ngn hn
N di hn
Vn c ng
Li nhun g li
Tng ngun vn

Trang 37

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

$11,675,852
$0
$11,675,852

$130,879
$0
$130,879

$26,241,993
$0
$26,241,993

$20,927,949 $20,985,552
$0
$20,927,949 $20,985,552

$0
$18,324,148
$0
$18,324,148
$30,000,000

$0
$23,744,121
$0
$23,744,121
$23,875,000

$0
$4,256,140
$0
$4,256,140
$30,498,133

$0
$0
$4,256,140 $4,256,140
$212,807
$425,614
$4,043,333 $3,830,526
$24,971,282 $24,816,078

$0
$15,000,000
$15,000,000
$0
$30,000,000

$0
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
-$1,125,000
$23,875,000

$0
$5,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,498,133
$30,498,133

$0
$0
$0
$0
$15,000,000 $15,000,000
$9,971,282 $9,816,078
$24,971,282 $24,816,078

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Tng ti sn gia tng n nm 3 s gim sau v cn h xy dng trong 3 nm sau

bn ht s cn h v ch gi li 2 tng hm kinh doanh dch v gi xe v hai dch
v h tr l an ninh v v sinh ta nh.
N ngn hn bng 0, ton b d n c ti tr bng n vay v vn ch s hu. Trong
trng hp thiu tin trong ngn hn cng ty s ti tr bng cch vay ngn hn ngn
hng.

Trang 38

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Bng 16: Bng tnh dng tin d ton

u nm 2008
Bng tnh dng tin

Dng thu

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3
45,4

0 08,000

116,664

116,664

45,4
Thu t bn cn h

08,000

Thu t tng gi xe t

52,800

Thu t tng gi xe my
Thu t cung cp dch v
tin ch

52,800

44,064

44,064

19,800

19,800

10,500

10,500

106,164

106,164

4,4
Cc khon gim tr

57,866
40,9

Tng dng thu

Dng chi

50,134

Chi u t
Chi ph gim st, php l,
u thu,
Chi ph lng
Chi ph d phng
Chi xy dng
Trang 39

1
8,324,148

5,
419,973

4,1
77,069 -

207,547

207,547

207,547

21,600

23,760

26,136

207,547

207,547

207,547

3,735,840

4,981,120

3,735,840

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

14,15
1,614

Chi n b gii ta
Chi hot ng

45,208

48,562

Chi ph lng

33,541

36,895

Chi ph hot ng khc

11,666

11,666

Chi tip th v bn hng

829,344

Chi ph t vn tip th
Chi ph tip th v hoa

12,000

hng
(1
8,324,148)

Dng tin rng

(5,4
19,973)

Thu thu nhp

(1
8,324,148)
(1
5,000,000)
(
3,324,148)

Dng tin t do (FCF)

Dng tin ch n
Dng tin ch s hu
NPV ch s hu
IRR ch s hu

$2,498,811.68
38.16%

Trang 40

(5,4
19,973)
6,
125,000
(11,5
44,973)
NPV tng tng t
IRR

817,344
35,9
43,721
4,0
82,607 31,8
61,114
5,7
50,000
26,1
11,114
$2,743,064.36
18.09%

60,957

57,603
-

60,957
5,
375,000 (5,3
14,043)

57,603

57,603

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Dng tin t do (FCF) ca d n m ln trong hai nm u do rt tin u t xy dng

v cc chi ph khc. Tng ng vi doanh thu vo nm 3 ca d n v dng tin
dng ln. Tt c doanh thu u chuyn thnh tin mt vo cui nm khi d n bn
giao cho khch hng.
Trong trng hp gi bn ti thiu l 2500USD/m2 (cha VAT), NPV vn dng v
IRR=18.09% cho thy y l d n kh thi. Bn di l biu m t dng tin t do
(FCF).

Hnh 14: Biu FCF

Trang 41

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Hnh 15: biu FCF v cn i tin mt

Bng 17: Bng cc t s ti chnh
Vng quay tng ti sn (doanh
thu thun/tng ti sn)
Vng quay ti sn c nh
(Doanh thu thun/ti sn c
nh)
Vng quay vn lu ng
(Doanh thu thun/ti sn lu
ng)
T s li nhun (li nhun sau
thu/doanh thu thun)
T s sinh li trn tng ti sn
(li nhun sau thu/ tng ti sn)
T s sinh li trn vn ch s
hu (li nhun sau thu/vn ch
s hu)
T s n (n phi tr/tng vn)

2008

2009

2011

2012

0.00%

0.00%

2010
134.27
%

0.43%

0.43%

0.00%

0.00% 962.14%

2.63%

2.77%

0.00%

0.00%

156.05
%

0.51%

0.51%

28.38%

28.38%

28.38%

0.00%

-4.71%

38.11%

-2.11%

-0.63%

0.00%
50.00%

-7.50%
41.88%

77.49%
16.39%

-3.51%
0.00%

-1.03%
0.00%

Nhn vo cc thng s chng ta thy r trong nm 2010 l nm thu ca d n. y

l nm thu hi vn u t bt u ti u t vo d n mi

Trang 42

Chng 6: K hoch ti chnh

Nm 2011 xut hin cc t s sinh li m do trong nm ny phi thanh ton li v

vn gc cho ngn hng. Sau nm ny t l s dng v nh v dng thu chnh ca d
n l vo nm 2010_thu trn bn cn h ch khng phi doanh thu trn dch v b
sung.
6.5. PHN TCH RI RO
Ri ro ca d n xut pht t cc ngun:
T l lm pht mc cao hai con s s lm cho gi c tt c cc loi hng ha u
tng. Khch hng b gii hn ngn sch chng hn nh nhng gia nh lm cng n
lng s rt kh c kh nng tin mua cn h ring cho h. yu t ny s lm
mt i ngha ca d n l to ch cho khch hng c thu nhp trn trung bnh v
gim phn no s lng khch hng mc tiu d n.
Li sut ngn hng tng do lm pht cng s lm nh hng ti dng chi d n do
50% ngun ti tr d ngn bt ngun t vn vay.
Theo d kin thi gian hon tt th tc php l v n b gii ta l 6 thng. Tuy
nhin vn gp ri ro trong giai on gii ta, tm l mt nh ca nhng dn ang sinh
sng ti chung c c s lm h i hi gi n b cao hn d kin (20% gi bn) v
trong trng hp tha thun khng thnh cng s lm nh hng ti dng chi ca d
n. Trong trng hp ny, cng ty s kt hp vi y bn nhn dn qun 3 d ra gii
php ph hp v tha ng nht cho i bn.
Doanh thu d kin ca d n t 100% trong nm 2010 vi gi bn l 2500USD
(cha VAT). Trong th trng bt ng sn hin nay iu y hon ton c th bi v tr
ca chung c t bit gn trung tm thnh ph v iu kin t nhin hon ton tt nh
phn tch trn. Tuy nhin vn c th xy ra trng hp bn c vi gi thp hn
hoc cao hn hoc thp hn ng vi chi ph s dng vn bnh qun khc nhau. Bn
di l hnh m t gi tr NPV theo gi bn v chi ph s dng vn.

Trang 43

Chng 7: Kt lun

Hnh 16: Biu NPV theo gi bn v chi ph s dng vn.

S trn di s cho chng ta th r hn v min kh thi ca d n. Hin ti gi th
trng tham kho bn cng ty t vn (CBRE) gi chung c cao cp ny l trn
3000USD/m2. y l mt tin ng mng cho d n, bi chnh gi cao ny s gp phn
to ra li nhun cao hn (NPV gn 4 triu USD, tham kho phn ph lc 1).
Tm li , ri ro ca d n ln nht l khu php l v n b gii ta. Vi nhng th
tc php l rm r hin nay th vic tr tin d n l hon ton c th xy ra. Nu
kt hp vi p lc tng gi n b t pha ngi dn s to ra kh khn ln lm chm
tin v tng chi ph ca d n. iu ny c th s lm thay i gi bn theo chiu
hng tng. Tuy nhin vn c th hn ch c ri ro ny do y l d n thuc din
u i u t ca qun 3 nm trong chng trnh ci to chung c c, xung cp ca
thnh ph. Cng ty s kt hp vi y ban nhn dn qun 3 tm cch tt nht hn ch
ri ro ngy. C th l h tr v mt n b gii ta v th tc php l u t.
Ri ro ln th hai l cht lng ca cng trnh xy dng rt d xy ra tnh trng thi
cng khng m bo cht lng, rt gim nguyn vt liu ca nh thu, hoc khng
m bo cht lng phn ni tht ca ta nh. iu ny s nh hng xu n cuc
sng ca khch hng v uy tn ca doanh nghip.
Ri ro ln th 3 l lm pht tng hai con s nh trong tnh hnh hin nay s lm cho
chi ph xy dng tng ng k nh hng ti dng chi d n. Trong trng hp ny,
cng ty c cch i ph hp l la d phng 5% chi ph xy dng nhm i ph vi
tnh hung bt ng.

Trang 44

Chng 7: Kt lun

CHNG 7: KT LUN
Sau nhng thnh cng to ting vang trong lnh vc bt ng sn v trc xu th pht
trin mnh ca th trng ny, An Ph nhanh chng nhn thy mt hng kinh
doanh nhiu tim nng. Bng tm nhn nhy bn trong kinh doanh, nm 2004, An Ph
ti cu trc thnh Cng ty c phn An Ph vi hot ng mi nhn l kinh doanh
bt ng sn. n nay, rt nhiu d n ln c bit n gn lin vi tn tui ca
cng ty C phn An Ph nh: Khu dn c cng nghip Hc Mn, khu cng nghip
Thnh c, cn h cao cp Bnh Ph, d n L Chnh ThngHin nay, An Ph vn
ang tip tc kho st cc v tr chin lc cc khu vc ln cn TP. H Ch Minh cho
nhng d n sp n, ha hn cung cp thm nhiu khng gian sng mi, vn minh v
hin i.
Theo ch trng chung ca Chnh Ph trong Ngh quyt s 34/2007/NQ-CP ngy
03/7/2007 cng nh ca chnh quyn thnh ph H Ch Minh, cn thit phi ci to,
xy mi cc chung c c xung cp, h hng nng trn a bn thnh ph, y ban
nhn dn qun 3 ku gi cc nh u t tham gia u t xy dng cc chung c mi
thay th cho cc chung c c. Vi mong mun gp phn vo s nghip pht trin
chung ca thnh ph H Ch Minh, Cng ty c phn An Ph quyt nh u t d n
57 59 Phm Ngc Thch. y s l mt d n chung c cao cp, thay th cho khu
chung c c.
Thng qua phn tch th trng, phn tch ti chnh, v cc phn tch cn thit khc cho
thy y l mt d n kh thi v c ngha ln trong vic gp phn nng cao cht
lng cuc sng ca ngi dn Qun 3 v s nghip pht trin ca thnh ph.
Ri ro ca d n xut pht t cc yu t: phn tch nhu cu th trng, khu hon tt
th tc php l, cht lng thi cng ca nh thu v lm pht. Ti mi ri ro cng ty
u c gii php gii quyt nh phn tch phn phn tch ri ro. Duy ch c yu t
phn tch nhu cu th trng l kh xc nh chnh xc nht v vn cn tim n nhiu
ri ro v phn ln d liu thu thp c l th cp. Tuy nhin y l ri ro chung v
cng ty An Ph s gim thiu ri ro ny thng qua vic mua thng tin t CBRE.
NHNG HN CH CA TI
ti cha phn tch tc ng ca lm pht ln dng ngn lu trong khi lm pht ang
c xu hng tng v nh hng rt ln n gi bn trong tng lai.
ti cha nh lng c nng lc thc s ca tng i th cnh tranh trong ngnh
m ch tng hp phn tch da trn d liu m cng ty CBRE cung cp.

Trang 45

PH LC

Ph lc 1: Bng phn tch gi tr NPV theo gi v WACC

$2,000

10%
-$251

11%
-$519

12%
-$774

13%
-$1,018

14%
-$1,250

15%
-$1,472

16%
-$1,684

17%
-$1,886

18%
-$2,079

19%
-$2,263

20%
-$2,439

$2,100
$2,200
$2,300
$2,400
$2,500
$2,600
$2,700
$2,800
$2,900
$3,000
$3,100
$3,200
$3,300
$3,400
$3,500

$166
$583
$1,000
$1,418
$1,835
$2,252
$2,669
$3,086
$3,503
$3,920
$4,337
$4,755
$5,172
$5,589
$6,006

-$121
$277
$674
$1,072
$1,470
$1,867
$2,265
$2,663
$3,060
$3,458
$3,855
$4,253
$4,651
$5,048
$5,446

-$395
-$16
$363
$742
$1,121
$1,500
$1,878
$2,257
$2,636
$3,015
$3,394
$3,773
$4,152
$4,531
$4,910

-$657
-$296
$65
$426
$787
$1,148
$1,509
$1,870
$2,231
$2,592
$2,952
$3,313
$3,674
$4,035
$4,396

-$906
-$563
-$219
$124
$468
$812
$1,155
$1,499
$1,842
$2,186
$2,530
$2,873
$3,217
$3,561
$3,904

-$1,145
-$818
-$491
-$164
$163
$490
$817
$1,144
$1,471
$1,798
$2,125
$2,452
$2,779
$3,106
$3,433

-$1,373
-$1,062
-$751
-$440
-$129
$182
$493
$804
$1,115
$1,426
$1,737
$2,048
$2,359
$2,670
$2,981

-$1,590
-$1,295
-$999
-$704
-$408
-$112
$183
$479
$774
$1,070
$1,365
$1,661
$1,957
$2,252
$2,548

-$1,798
-$1,517
-$1,237
-$956
-$675
-$394
-$114
$167
$448
$729
$1,010
$1,290
$1,571
$1,852
$2,133

-$1,997
-$1,730
-$1,464
-$1,197
-$931
-$664
-$398
-$131
$135
$402
$668
$935
$1,201
$1,468
$1,734

-$2,186
-$1,934
-$1,681
-$1,428
-$1,175
-$922
-$670
-$417
-$164
$89
$341
$594
$847
$1,100
$1,353

Ph lc 2: Hp ng ngh gia CBRE v An Ph

Trong hp ng ny nu khng c g thay i (nguyn nhn c bit) c hai bn nht
tr nh sau:
1. Phm vi dch v
1.1. Dch v t vn th trng.
CBRE s tng hp, phn tch v nh gi tnh hnh pht trin cn h ca cc d n cn
h ln cn, gi nh k cho ch u t hng thng.
nh k hng thng gi cc bng danh sch cn h v ang pht trin ti TPHCM
cho bn ch u t.
1.2. Dch v qun l bn hng.
Trong vng 12 thng k t ngy k hp ng ny c k kt, CBRE s c trch
nhim pht trin v duy tr h thng qun l kinh doanh v k hoch tip th cho d n
t hiu qu cao nht. C th CBRE s:
Sp sp cc hot ng kinh doanh cho nhn vin kinh doanh, CBRE s cung cp 3
nhn vin kinh doanh v ch u t s tin c mt k ton cho d n; phng kinh
doanh s hot ng 7 ngy mt tun t 8:30 n 18:00.
Thit lp th tc bn hng v h thng ti liu bn hng, son tho chi tit m t v ta
nh v b ti liu bn hng. Cung cp ti liu mu v biu mu ng k mua, hp ng
tha thun mua bn v son tho tt c ti liu kinh doanh v ti liu hp php cho
vic kinh doanh sau khi ch u t ph duyt.
Gii thiu d n vi cc khch hng mua tng lai, m trch tt c yu cu ca khch
hng v tin hnh thng tho v sp xp, k kt bn ng k mua v hp ng mua
bn.
Kt hp lin h vi i ng xy dng v bt k bn th 3 no c lin h mi lc di
s yu cu ca ch u t nhm m bo ton b th tc kinh doanh tri chy, hi
lng khch hng.
Cng tc vi nh mi gii bn ngoi:
t c s cng nhn v cng tc ca ton b thnh vin cng ng cc nh mi
gii, bn t vn bt ng sn s trnh s tay qung co n cc cng tc mi gii hng
thng. Thng qua h thng, bn t vn s cp nht cho cc cng tc mi gii khc v
cc din tch trng trong ta nh v sn lng gii thch cho cc cng tc mi gii khc
bt k nhng yu cu no t pha khch mua m h khng gii quyt c. Bn i l
tip th s lin lc thng xuyn vi cc cng tc mi gii v m bo rng tt c h
u c thng bo v nhng c hi kinh doanh ti ta nh.
Cung cp bo co kinh doanh hng tun v hng thng.
2. Ngha v ca CBRE v bn ch u t.
2.1. Bn CBRE:
Bn ch u t cng vi bn i l tip th s thit lp ngn sch tip th cho ta nh.

Kt hp vi ch u t thc hin chin dch v mc tiu tip th trong khon thi gian
nh.
Kt hp vi ch u t chun b cc ti liu tip th cho ta nh v bo co nhng mt
cn thit, thng tin phn hi ca cc cng c tip th s dng.
Bng c s d liu sn c ng thi kt hp vi mi quan h ca ch u t trn th
trng mc tiu nhm hng ti mc tiu tip th.
Bt k vic chi tr ph mi gii no n bn th 3 v trang b cho phng kinh doanh ti
ta nh vi ton b my mc v nhu cu v trang thit b phc v cho vic kinh doanh
(nh my tnh, in thoi, my fax,) s c chi tr bi CBRE.
Phi hon thnh mc tiu kinh doanh ra nh nh trong trong s thng nht ca
ch u t v bn i l tip th c quyn.
Bn i l tip th c quyn c trch nhim h tr khch mua, thc hin khon thanh
ton u tin cho ch u t tng ng 30% gi tr hp ng c k kt, gm 10%
t cc v 20% t thanh ton u tin.
2.2. Bn Ch u t:
Kt hp vi CBRE trong cng tc t vn v trin khai cc xut c chp thun.
Nhanh chng phn hi i vi nhng xut ca CBRE.
Chi tr chi ph tip th cho bn CBRE v cc hot ng tip th, qung co, PR.
Cung cp min ph mt vn phng kinh doanh trong ta nh vi y trang thit b
ni tht cn thit bo gm khu vc lm vic cho nhn vin kinh doanh v khu vc tip
khch tham quan d n trong sut thi gian hiu lc ca hp ng.
Thanh ton ph hoa hng trong vng 7 ngy lm vic sau khi nhn c phiu ngh
thanh ton t bn i l tip th v nhn c khon thanh ton t mt t khch mua.
3. Ph v phng thc thanh ton (c ngh bi CBRE)
3.1. Ph t vn
Ph t vn duy tr mc c nh l 3000USD mi qu cho vai tr t vn tip th.
Khon ph ca qu u tin s c thanh ton cho CBRE trong vng 7 ngy lm vic
sau khi hp ng c k kt.
3.2. Ph tip th bn c quyn
Ph tip th bn c quyn cho mi hp ng c k kt thnh cng trong sut thi
hn hiu lc ca hp ng s l 1,8% tr gi hp ng.
70% ph hoa hng cho mi hp ng k kt thnh cng s thanh ton cho CBRE trong
vng 7 ngy lm vic sau khi ch u t nhn c thanh ton u tin t khch mua.
30% ph hoa hng cho mi hp ng k kt thnh cng s thanh ton cho CBRE vo
thi im thanh l hp ng.
3.3. Ph hnh chnh
Ph hnh chnh l 150USD trn mi cn h nu bn i l tip th bn c quyn thc
hin cc cng vic hnh chnh bao gm chun b hp ng, phiu thanh ton ca t

thanh ton u tin cho bt k cn h no do ch u t bn ra trong thi hn b

nhim bng vn bn. Ph ny s cng thm 30% VAT v s c thanh ton ngay khi
khch hng mua thanh ton tin t cc.
Tt c ph cp trn khng bao gm ph VAT.

Ti liu tham kho

TI LIU THAM KHO

Sch
[1]
Phm Ngc Thy, L Nguyn Hu,T Tr Nhn, Phm Tun Cng
(2004), K hoch kinh doanh, Nh xut bn i hc quc gia TpHCM.
[2]
Glenn P.Jenkins & Arnold C.Harberger (2006), S tay hng dn thm
nh d n u t, Chng trnh ginh dy kinh t Fulbright.
[3]
Trn Ngc Th, V Vit Qung (2007), Lp m hnh ti
chnh_Financial modeling, Nh xut bn lao ng x hi.
[4]

Ts.T Minh Kiu (2006), Ti chnh cng ty, Nh xut bn thng k.

[5]
Zvi Bodie, Alex Kane, Alan J.Marcus, Assentials of investments, Irwin
McGraw-Hill.
Ti liu internet
[1]
Cng ty bt ng sn CBRE. Residental Sales Serviecs. Available:
http://cbrevietnam.com/res_hcms.php
[2]
Cng ty bt ng sn Mt Vung. D n bn cn h. Available:
http://www.metvuong.com/phat_trien.php?type=both.
[3]
Cng ty t vn u t v k thut th dn_ABBO. Pht trin bt ng
sn,
ton
cnh
th
trng.
Available:
http://www.pindex.vn/news/phatrienbds/index.html