Mn bn v an ton in ht nhn

Hong Xun Ph 1 Trong bui hp bo y nc mt, c t chc ngy 29/4/2011, Gio s Toshiso Kosako nghn ngo cng b quyt nh t chc c vn nguyn t cho th tng, phn i cch x l khng hong ht nhn ca chnh ph Nht Bn. 2 Hai ngy sau, trong chuyn ving thm v xin li dn lng Iitate, ph ch tch Norio Tsuzumi ca TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company) 3 cho rng thm ha ht nhn Fukushima l do con ngi gy ra. 4 L mt trong nhng ngi lnh o cao nht ca chnh cng ty iu hnh nh my in ht nhn Fukushima Daiichi, 5 ni xy ra thm ha 3/2011, ng Tsuzumi c y cn c xc thc khi tha nhn nh vy. Thi im sng thn li dn xa... n lc a tnh on kt v lng v tha tr v ng v tr hp l, nghim khc nhn nhn trch nhim ca con ngi i vi thm ha ht nhn Fukushima, thay v li tt c cho thin nhin. Chuyn bun trn t nc mt tri mc Trong sut 40 nm xy dng v vn hnh, nh my in ht nhn Fukushima Daiichi phi chng kin bit bao sai lm mang tnh ch quan ca con ngi. K s Shiro Ogura, ngi tham gia xy dng 5 trong s 6 t my, cho bit lc xy dng t my s 1 vo nm 1967 ngi ta mc nhin s dng thit k ca General Electric, vn c dnh cho nh my t trn t M. Khi xy dng cc t my tip theo ngi ta mi sa i thit k thch nghi vi iu kin c th ca Nht Bn, song vn khng h tnh n n vic sng thn c th xy ra vng bin ny. Sau trn ng t 6,6 Richter vo nm 2007, TEPCO mi a ra bin php phng, nhng h thng lm lnh cng ch c ci tin p ng c ng t 8 Richter v xy dng tng chn sng ch cao 5,7 mt. 6 thy c mc chu o ca gii php tng cng ny, lu rng ring trong th k 20 c 5 trn ng t km theo sng thn ln vng bin Nht Bn, c th l vo cc nm 1923 (ng t 7,9 Richter, sng thn cao ti 13,0 mt), 1933 (ng t 8,4 Richter, sng thn cao ti 29,0 mt), 1944 (ng t 8,1 Richter, sng thn cao ti 10,0 mt), 1983 (ng t 7,8 Richter, sng thn cao ti 14,5 mt) v 1993 (ng t 7,7 Richter, sng thn cao ti 54,0 mt). 7 K s Mitsuhiko Tanaka, ngi tng tham gia i hnh ca Hitachi ch to ni hi tr gi 250 triu USD cho t my s 4, k rng thnh ni b bin dng sau khi ti luyn. Thay v hy b sn phm b hng theo ng quy nh ca php lut, Tanaka gip bin bo, v c Hitachi thng 3 triu Yn cng vi bng ghi nhn cng trng c bit. Chu tc ng tm l nng n t thm ha Chernobyl, Tanaka th nhn hnh vi sai tri ca mi nm trc vi B Kinh t, Thng mi v Cng nghip Nht Bn. Nhng Hitachi ph nhn, cn chnh ph li t chi iu tra. May m qu bom n chm (theo cch gi ca Tanaka) li tm
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hxphu@math.ac.vn, phu@ iwr.uni-heidelberg.de, http://hpsc.iwr.uni-heidelberg.de/hxphu/ VOA News 30/4/2011: Japanese radiation adviser quits in rebuke to government 3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Tokyo Electric Power Company 4 NHK 1/5/2011: TEPCO official: Fukushima is man-made disaster 5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant 6 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki: Kernkraftwerk Fukushima-Dai-ichi 7 Ludger Mohrbach (atw - Internationale Zeitschrift fr Kernenergie - 5/2011): Unterschiede im gestaffelten Sicherheitskonzept: Vergleich Fukushima Daiichi mit deutschen Anlagen

ngng hot ng bo dng trong thi gian xy ra ng t v sng thn. Ai c th bit rng iu g s xy ra nu l phn ng ny ang hot ng? Tanaka bnh lun Ti khng bit liu n c th tr ni trc mt trn ng t nh vy hay khng. 8 TEPCO tng ngy to bo co bo dng nh my in ht nhn sut hai thp k v che du c quan gim st hng trm s c. Khi s vic b bi l vo nm 2002, lnh o TEPCO phi t chc. T n nm 2007 c thm t nht 6 ln phi tt my khn cp ti nh my Fukushima Daiichi v mt s c nguy kch ko di 7 gi l phn ng s 3, nhng chng u b lnh o mi ca TEPCO giu gim. 9 Trong bo co gi NISA (Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency) 10 c quan gim st an ton ht nhn ca Nht Bn ngy 28/2/2011, TEPCO tha nhn rng 11 nm qua khng thc hin kim tra nh k 33 b phn ca nh my in ht nhn Fukushima Daiichi, trong c my pht in d tr, bm lm lnh, van kim tra nhit ... 11 NISA yu cu TEPCO phi a ra k hoch khc phc trc ngy 2/6/2011. 12 Nhng thin tai khng kin tr ch i n thi hn y. Vo lc 14h46 ngy 11/3/2011 trn ng t mang tn Tohoku mnh 9 Richter 13 xy ra ngoi b bin Miyagi. Trn ng t mnh nht k t ngy c thng k Nht Bn gy nn cn sng thn cao trn 10 mt, thm ch c ni cao ti 38 mt. 14 Nm cch tm chn khong 150 km, nh my in ht nhn Fukushima Daiichi hng chu t sng thn cao 14 15 mt, trn qua tng chn sng ch cao vn vn 5,7 mt, nhn bn t my s 1 n 4 chm su di nc 45 mt v hai t my s 5 v 6 chm di nc 12 mt. 15 Ngay sau khi ng t xy ra, ba l phn ng s 13 t ng tt nhanh, cn ba l phn ng s 46 ang c kim tra nh k nn khng hot ng. 16 Tuy nhin, ton b h thng cung cp in ln lt b t lit 17 v h thng lm lnh b v hiu ha, khin cc thanh nhin liu b nng ln qu mc cho php, k c trong tm l ln trong b lm lnh (dnh cho cc thanh nhin liu qua s dng). 18 Hu qu l nhiu v n v ha hon xy ra, lm h hi cc nh l phn ng s 14, v mt phn cc thanh nhin liu b nng chy. 19 Bi phng x tung ra, gy nhim nng trn din rng, 20 n mc Chnh ph Nht Bn yu cu ngi dn sng trong vng 30 km quanh nh my phi s tn 21 v quy nh khu vc bn knh 20 km l vng cm. 22 Cn c vo mc nhim phng x, ch tch y ban iu hnh Ht nhn Hoa K (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) Gregory Jaczko cho rng khu vc s tn nh vy

Jason Clenfield (Bloomberg Businessweek 23/3/2011): Fukushima engineer says he helped cover up flaw at Dai-Ichi reactor no. 4 9 Jason Clenfield (Bloomberg Businessweek 18/3/2011): Japan disaster caps decades of faked reports, accidents 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency 11 Christoph Neidhart (sueddeutsche.de 21/3/2011): Betreiber Tepco flschte Reparatur-Protokolle 12 Kevin Krolicki (Reuters 21/3/2011): Stricken Japan nuke plant skipped inspections 13 Japan Meteorological Agency 13/3/2011: The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake ~first report~ 14 Kyodo News 3/4/2011: 38-meter-high tsunami triggered by March 11 quake: survey 15 TEPCO 9/4/201: Result of the investigation on Tsunami at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station 16 TEPCO 12/3/2011: Impact to TEPCO's Facilities due to Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake (as of 3PM) 17 TEPCO 11/3/2011: Occurrence of a specific incident stipulated in Article 10, Clause 1 of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness (Fukushima Daiichi) 18 World Nuclear News 11/3/2011: Massive earthquake hits Japan 19 Chico Harlan und Steven Mufson (The Washington Post 13/3/2011): Japanese nuclear plants' operator scrambles to avert meltdowns 20 All Things Nuclear 30/3/2011: IAEA confirms very high levels of contamination far from reactors 21 Los Angeles Times 25/3/2011: Japan steps up nuclear plant precautions; Kan apologizes 22 The Japan Times Online 22/4/2011: No-go zone trespassers face fines, arrest

l qu hp v phi nng bn knh khng an ton ln t nht 80 km (khu vc c khong 1,9 triu ngi sinh sng). 23 L phn ng s 4 ang c bo dng nn khng hot ng v khng h cha nhin liu ht nhn. 24 229 tn nhin liu (trong 35 tn cha qua s dng) c ngm trong b lm lnh, nm trong cng ta nh. 25 Tuy nhin liu ht nhn trng thi bo qun tnh, l ra phi tng i an ton, nhng khong 6h00 ngy 15/3 xy ra mt v n, khot trn tng nh hai l rng khong 8 mt vung v gy thit hi nng n. 26 iu ny cho thy s c ht nhn c th xy ra ngoi l phn ng, tc l khng ph thuc vo vic l phn ng ht nhn thuc th h no. Khi xy ra s c, i ng qun l v chuyn gia k thut tng chng rt lo luyn tr nn lng tng v bt lc. H dng my bay v xe cu ha phun nc lm lnh, nhng khng my tc dng, v ch mt lng nh ri ng ch cn n. Ri phi huy ng c nhng c my bm b tng khng l t c v M bm nc. 27 Lc u h s dng nc ngt, nhng ngun nc ny nhanh chng cn kit, nn phi ngng phun nc vo l phn ng s 1 lc 14h53 ngy 12/3/2011. TEPCO gi fax cho NISA vo hi 15h18 xin php dng nc bin thay th, 28 nhng NISA li khng chuyn ngay cho vn phng th tng. Gn 3 ting sau (18h) th tng Naoto Kan mi bt u tho lun vi cc b trng, 29 trong khi mt v n kh hy-r xy ra ti l s 1 vo lc 15h36. Chnh ph yu cu tin hnh cc bc chun b, nhng TEPCO li nhm hiu y l hiu lnh bt u trin khai, nn cho phun nc bin t 19h04. 21 pht sau, lnh o TEPCO ra lnh dng li v pht hin ra th tng vn cha ph chun. Mc d vy, tri vi lnh ca cp trn, ng Masao Yoshida lnh o nh my Fukushima Daiichi vn tip tc cho phun nc bin vo l phn ng, trong khi TEPCO ra thng bo l qu trnh phun nc b gin on 55 pht. 30 S d h phi lng l nh vy l v nc mn s lm hng cc thit b, hn na khi mui kt ta th cn tr qu trnh lu thng lm lnh tip theo. Sau hai tun, mt lng mui khng l ng li trong cc l phn ng. Richard Lahey ngi ph trch nghin cu gii php an ton cho l phn ng nc si khi General Electric lp t chng Fukushima Daiichi c lng c khong 26 tn mui kt ta trong l phn ng s 1, v khong gp i lng y kt ta trong l s 2 v 3. 31 K di dng v din bin trn thy c b my qun l t c s ti trung ng ng ph th no trc s c ht nhn. Nhng quyt nh lin quan l v cng h trng v c th ko theo nhng hu qu khng khip, nh hng nng n n hng triu ngi, trong hng chc nm tri. V vy, chng vt ra khi thm quyn ca cc cp c s, b y ln cp trung ng, n tay th tng. D th tng ti gii n u th cng khng hiu bit chuyn mn a ra quyt nh ngay lp tc, nn phi bn bc vi cc b trng. H cng khng kh hn nhiu, nn phi tham kho kin ca cc chuyn gia. T lc c s gi bo co v xin ch th, n khi th tng nhn c thng tin, triu tp c vn bn bc v ra c phn quyt, th cng phi my ting tri qua, nu khng mt c ngy. Nhng s c ht nhn din ra cc nhanh, khng ch i con ngi thc hin xong ci quy trnh ra quyt nh y. Trong trng hp l phn ng s 1 ca nh my Fukushima Daiichi, t lc TEPCO gi fax xin php dng nc bin gim nhit n lc xy ra v n ch c 18 pht, trong khi phi sau 5 ting
Patrick Illinger (sueddeutsche.de 17/3/2011): Atom-Experten halten Sperrzone fr zu klein IAEA 22/3/2011: Fukushima nuclear accident update log 25 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki: Nuklearkatastrophe von Fukushima 26 TEPCO Press Release 15/3/2011: Damage to the unit 4 nuclear reactor building at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station 27 World Nuclear News 1/4/2011: Concrete pumps to Fukushima 28 TEPCO Press Release 26/5/2011: The time-line regarding seawater injection to unit 1 at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station 29 The Yomiuri Shimbun 26/5/2011: TEPCO fax about seawater not passed to Kan for hours 30 Nikkei.com 26/5/2011: Tepco retracts explanation of seawater injection halt 31 n-tv 24/3/2011: Sorge vor Strahlen wchst
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mi nhn c tr li ca th tng v NISA. 32 iu g s xy ra nu ngi ta khng hiu lm lnh ca chnh ph, cho phun nc bin t 19h04, v nu lnh o nh my tun lnh TEPCO dng li 55 pht? Oi om thay, thit hi c hn ch t nhiu nh cp di hnh ng khng ng vi lnh cp trn. Cu hi mang tnh nguyn tc l: Liu c b my qun l no trn th gii c kh nng phn ng kp thi v chnh xc n mc p ng c din bin cc nhanh v v cng phc tp ca s c ht nhn khng? Chc l khng! Ngy 12/4/2011 c quan gim st an ton ht nhn NISA phi nng nh gi mc nghim trng ca khng hong ht nhn t cp 5 ln cp 7 theo thang bc INES (International Nuclear Event Scale), 33 tc l mc cao nht, trong qu kh mi c dng nh gi thm ha Chernobyl. Tin s Hans-Josef Allelein, gio s v cng ngh v an ton ca l phn ng ht nhn ti trng i hc danh ting RWTH Aachen (CHLB c), 34 nh gi rng ngi Nht s phi chin u vi hu qu ca thm ha Fukushima t nht 30 nm na cho n khi hon ton kim sot c tnh hnh, v khu vc xung quanh nh my Fukushima Daiichi s b nhim bi ng v phng x Caesium-137 t nht 200 n 300 nm na. 35 Hu qu nng n ca thm ha ht nhn buc ngi ta phi t cu hi v trch nhim ca TEPCO v cc c quan qun l. Khng ai c th khng nh cc my mc b TEPCO b mc sut 11 nm qua c cn hot ng tt trc ngy 11/3/2011 hay khng. Ch bit s liu o c cho thy rng c th mt s thit b then cht b hng ngay sau khi ng t, ngha l trc khi sng thn p ti. 36 V s t lit ca h thng cp in cng vi h thng lm lnh sau trn sng thn l mt yu t then cht dn n thm ha ht nhn. iu khng th chp nhn l nhng ngi c trch nhim lm ng trc nhiu cnh bo, n t nhiu ngun khc nhau. V d: Nm 1990, NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) c quan qun l an ton ht nhn ca M tng cnh bo rng i vi cc nh my in nm nhng vng hay c ng t th kh nng cc my pht in d tr v h thng lm lnh b t lit l rt cao. NISA nhc li iu ny trong bo co nm 2004. 37 Nhng TEPCO b ngoi tai, ri bt bit bao ngi phi gnh chu tai ha khng khip, khng g b p ni. TEPCO phm nhiu sai lm, nhng khng phi l a ch duy nht ng b ch trch. Gii am hiu khng th hi lng vi cch x l khng hong ca nhng ngi c trch nhim. y ban An ton Ht nhn Nht Bn (Japans Nuclear Safety Commission) khng iu ng mt ai trong s 40 chuyn gia ca h n hin trng, mc d k hoch quc gia v phng thm ha quy nh phi lm nh vy. 38 Th tng Naoto Kan trc tip ch o, nhng iu khng ch em li tc dng tt cho cng vic cu h. S hin din ca ng khin lc lng chuyn trch lng tng trong quyt nh v do d trong hnh ng. Do khng ai dm ngn th tng thc hin chuyn th st Fukushima bng my bay trc thng, m bo an ton cho ng, ngi ta khng th cho x p vo mt thi im sm hn v thun li hn. 39 Trong cuc hp bo ngy 10/5/2011, th tng Naoto Kan tha nhn: Cng vi Tokyo Electric Power Co, Chnh ph t chc thc y nng lng ht nhn vi t cch chnh sch quc gia chu trch nhim ln v s c ht nhn. ng tuyn b s khng lnh khon
Asahi Japan Watch 27/5/2011: Nuke plant manager ignores bosses, pumps in seawater after order to halt NISA/METI 12/4/2011: INES (the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale) rating on the events in Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station by the Tohoku District - off the Pacific Ocean earthquake 34 Institute for Reactor Safety and Reactor Technology - Chairman: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. H.-J. Allelein 35 Focus 26/5/2011: Die Katastrophe begleitet Japan die nchsten 30 Jahre 36 Kyodo News 15/3/2011: Key nuclear facilities may have been damaged before tsunami 37 Makiko Kitamura, Maki Shiraki (Bloomberg 16/3/2011): Japans reactor risk foretold 20 years ago in U.S. Agency report 38 Kyodo News 16/4/2011: Japan nuclear commission fails to send experts to Fukushima 39 Die Zeit 31/3/2011: Fukushima-Betreiber: Eine Riege von Versagern
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lng 20.200 USD/thng v khon thng 24.600 USD mi nm 2 ln dnh cho th tng cho n khi gii quyt n tha cuc khng hong ht nhn. 40 Nhng iu k trn khng lin quan n my mc, khng ph thuc vo tm pht trin ca cng ngh, m ch th hin nhng nhc im mun thu ca con ngi. Cho d th k 20 hay 21, phng ng hay phng Ty, di ch x hi ch ngha hay t bn ch ngha, th u khng th trnh c hon ton nhng hn ch mang tnh c hu thuc v con ngi. V y l him ha tim tng, lun song hnh vi in ht nhn. Nhc li nhng chuyn y khng phi h thp nc Nht v ngi Nht. Ngc li, s ng x bnh tnh, tnh k lut v tinh thn tng tr him c ca ngi dn Nht trong thm ha va qua lm hng t tri tim trn th gii rung ng v ngng m. Mn chuyn bun ca bn ch gip mnh tr li mt cu hi thit thn: Vi mt nn khoa hc cng ngh siu ng, vi mt i ng chuyn gia ti nng c nhiu kinh nghim v k lut cao, vi mt b my lnh oqun l giu lng t trng, vy m Nht Bn cng khng th trnh c ht nhng hn ch ca yu t con ngi, dn n thm ha ht nhn, th th t Vit s th no? Ni trn tr ca ngi c Lo ngi trc him ha ht nhn v hu qu lu di i vi con ngi v mi trng, phong tro phn i in ht nhn c hnh thnh trong nhng nm 1970 v c hng ng rng ri sau thm ha Chernobyl 1986. Nm 2002 chnh ph lin minh gia ng X hi dn ch c (SPD) v ng Xanh (Gruene) ca th tng Gerhard Schroeder sa i Lut nguyn t, m u cho qu trnh rt khi nng lng ht nhn. Theo , khng c xy dng mi cc nh my in ht nhn thng mi, khng ch thi gian hot ng ca cc nh my in ht nhn ang tn ti l 32 nm k t ngy khnh thnh v lng in c sn xut trong cc nh my ht nhn ca c k t 1/1/2000 khng c vt qu 2,62 triu gigawatt-gi. n cui nm 2005, 2 trong s 20 nh my in ht nhn phi ngng hot ng vnh vin. 41 S cn li s phi ln lt ng ca trc 20212022. 42 V sao chnh ph Schroeder c th a ra chnh sch cc oan nh vy? V h hiu r rng khng tn ti th cng ngh in ht nhn c th coi l an ton tuyt i. Cho n nay loi ngi vn bt lc, cha tm ni cu tr li hp l cho vn x l cht thi ht nhn. Trong mt nc dn ch, kh c th pht l nguyn bo v mi trng v s sng ca hng chc triu cng dn, chn ba cht thi ht nhn u , nh mt s nc vn lm. Lut ca c cho php tm tr cc thanh nhin liu qua s dng trong hm xy cnh nh my trong 40 nm, nhng thi gian tri nhanh nh chp mt, m ngi ta vn cha tm ra cch x l tha ng. Mt trong nhng gii php c xut l thit lp cc kho cha cht thi phng x di cc m mui khai thc. Trong thi gian 19651992 ngi ta th nghim vic lu tr cht thi phng x di m Asse v a 46.930 m3 cht thi xung su 975 mt di mt t. Thng 9/2008 cc b lin quan tha thun s dng m Asse lm kho cha vnh vin, nhng u nm 2009 phi t b nh y sau khi pht hin ra s r r ca dung dch mui v nguy c sp m. 43 Ngi ta d nh s a lng cht thi phng x k trn ra khi lng t. Nhng ri s chuyn chng i u? S kin y khin d lun vn lo ngi li cng thm lo ngi.
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Japan Today 11/5/2011: Kan to forgo PM's salary until nuclear crisis brought under control http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki: Atomgesetz (Deutschland) 42 Agenda21 Treffpunkt: Atomkraftwerke in Deutschland 43 Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz: Asse

i din cho nhng lc lng ng h in ht nhn, chnh ph ca ba ng Lin minh Dn ch Thin cha gio (CDU), Lin minh X hi Thin cha gio (CSU) v ng Dn ch T do (FDP) do th tng Angela Merkel ng u sa li Lut nguyn t vo thng 10/2010. Tuy vn khc t vic xy dng mi cc nh my in ht nhn, nhng 7 nh my xy dng trc nm 1980 c gia hn hot ng thm 8 nm v 10 nh my mi hn c gia hn hot ng thm 14 nm so vi thi hn quy nh di thi ca chnh ph Schroeder. 44 V d: Nh my Neckarwestheim-2 khnh thnh 1/1989 c ko di thi gian hot ng n nm 2036. 45 Tt nhin, cc ng i lp phn i, coi l mt bc i git li, cn cc ng cm quyn th vn kin nh lp trng ng h in ht nhn. Nhng, cha y 5 thng sau, chn ng ca thm ha Fukushima 3/2011 lm rung chuyn x hi c v to ra bc ngoc trong chnh sch ht nhn ca chnh ph Merkel. Tha nhn rng Fukushima thay i quan im ca ti v nng lng ht nhn, th tng Merkel n vi nhn thc mi l khng th khng ch c nguy c him ha ca nng lng ht nhn. 46 T ch cho ko di hn gp i thi hn tip tc hot ng ca cc nh my hin c, b d kin s rt nhanh khi nng lng ht nhn. Ngy 14/3/2011 th tng yu cu ngay lp tc phi kim tra an ton ca tt c 17 nh my in ht nhn v yu cu 7 nh my c nht phi tm ngng hot ng 3 thng. 47 Ngy 22/3/2011 th tng Merkel lp ra y ban o c (Ethikkommission) xem xt cc kha cnh o c v k thut ca nng lng ht nhn, chun b mt tha thun x hi rt khi nng lng ht nhn v xut qu trnh chuyn i sang cc nng lng ti to. 48 Sau hn 2 thng lm vic, y ban o c trao cho th tng bn kin ngh, trong xut nc c rt khi nng lng ht nhn trong vng 10 nm. 49 y ban cho rng khng th hn ch c hu qu ca tai nn ht nhn, k c v khng gian, thi gian v phm vi x hi; trnh c cc tai nn nh vy th ch cn cch l khng s dng in ht nhn. 50 Trong cuc hp ko di n qu na m ch nht 29/5/2011, lnh o ca ba ng tham gia lin minh cm quyn CDU, CSU v FDP i n thng nht l CHLB c s rt ra khi nng lng ht nhn vo nm 2022. C th l ngng ngay hot ng ca 8 nh my, 51 9 nh my cn li s phi ln lt ng ca trong thi gian t 2015 n 2021/2022. 52 L mt chnh tr gia dy dn kinh nghim, b Merkel bit r vic o ngc chnh sch ht nhn nh vy ng ngha vi cng nhn quan im ca phe i lp v ph nhn lp trng m ng ca b vn theo ui. iu s tng im cho i phng, vn ang ln nh diu gp gi, v gia tng bt li cho ng ca b, trong khi k tng tuyn c ang n gn. 53 Song vi t cch mt nh khoa hc hot ng trong lnh vc vt l v ha hc, tng nghin cu nhng ti lin quan n cng ngh ht nhn, 54 Tin s Angela Merkel khng th nhm mt ph nhn nguy c tim tng, lun rnh rp ca cc nh my in ht nhn. Lng tm thc gic b t quyn li ca dn tc ln trn quyn li ng phi, coi trng s an ton ca ton dn hn quyn lc v li ch c nhn.
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http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki: Atomgesetz (Deutschland) Agenda21 Treffpunkt: Atomkraftwerke in Deutschland 46 Focus Online 9/6/2011: Bundeskanzlerin Merkel: Atomkraft nicht beherrschbar 47 http://de.wikipedia.org: Atom-Moratorium 48 http://de.wikipedia.org: Ethikkommission fr eine sichere Energieversorgung 49 donaukuirier.de 30/5/2011: Ethikkommission bergibt Merkel ihren Abschlussbericht 50 tagesschau.de 12/5/2011: Ethikkommission fr Atomausstieg bis 2021 51 Spiegel Online 30/5/2011: Schwarz-Gelb beschliet Atomausstieg 2021 - mit Nachspielzeit 52 Zeit Online 6/6/2011: Kabinett beschliet Atomausstieg bis 2022 53 Spiegel Online 23/3/2011: Whler strafen Union fr Atomkurs ab 54 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki: Angela Merkel

Vy l, ch 7 thng sau khi sa Lut nguyn t ko di thi gian hot ng ca cc nh my in ht nhn n tn nm 2036, chnh ph lin minh ca ba ng CDU, CSU v FDP hy b chnh sch ca chnh mnh quay tr li vi k hoch rt ra khi in ht nhn trong thi gian 20212022, iu m chnh ph tin nhim ca hai ng SPD v Gruene thng qua 9 nm v trc. Qu trnh ph nh ca ph nh y khng n thun l nhng pha lt cnh chnh tr, m th hin s trn tr ca x hi c trc cu hi c nn tip tc s dng nng lng ht nhn hay khng. Quyt nh ln ny chc s rt bn vng v khng cn b mang ra xt li, bi v khng phi l s bt pht tc thi, m l kt qu ca hng chc nm cn nhc k lng; khng phi l quyt nh n phng, m c tt c cc ng tham gia Quc hi c ng thun khi cng ng ra chn l; khng phi l sn phm ca t duy chnh tr thun ty, m c sinh ra bi nhng tr tu khoa hc, ti ni m Albert Einstein hon thnh L thuyt tng i m rng (Berlin 1915) v Otto Hahn thnh cng trong vic phn tch ht nhn nguyn t uranium (Berlin 1938). Trng ngi li ngm n ta L mt quc gia ang pht trin nhanh t trng thi lc hu, Vit Nam lun i nng lng, i hi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch phi tm ra gii php p ng kp thi. in ht nhn l mt phng n c nhiu ngi tnh n. iu khng c g l mi l, bi l c 441 l phn ng ang c vn hnh ti 31 nc trn th gii, vi tng cng sut 378.910 megawatt, chim khong 14% sn xut in nng. 55 Nhng vic la chn in ht nhn cng khng phi l hin nhin, v c nhiu nc n vi in ht nhn ri quay lng li. Nm 1978, theo kt qu trng cu dn , o quyt nh khng a vo s dng nh my in ht nhn Zwentendorf, mi xy dng vi gi khong 1 t Euro, ri ni khng vi in ht nhn n tn by gi. 56 Nm 1980, Quc hi Thy in quyt nh khng xy thm nh my mi v hon thnh vic rt khi in ht nhn vo nm 2010. Nm 1987, Italy quyt nh ng ca c 3 nh my in ht nhn ang tn ti (vo nm 1987 v 1990) v ngng xy dng mi. Nm 1999, B thng qua lut rt khi nng lng ht nhn, theo s phi ng ca tt c 7 l phn ng sau 40 nm hot ng v khng c xy mi. Ty Ban Nha cng thng qua lut khng cho php xy dng nh my in ht nhn mi... 57 Sau giai on h hi vi in ht nhn cho n thp k 1970, tai nn Three Mile Island 1979 58 v Chernobyl 1986 59 cnh tnh d lun. Nay, thm ha Fukushima 60 li cho thm mt li cnh co. T chc thm d d lun Gallup International Association 61 tin hnh kho st trn 47 nc v thu c kt qu: Sau s c Fukushima 3/2011, t l ng h in ht nhn gim t 57 xung 49%, trong khi t l phn i tng t 32 ln 43%. Nht Bn, t l ng h in ht nhn gim t 62 xung 39% v t l phn i tng t 28 ln 47%. c, t l ng h gim t 34 xung 26% v t l phn i tng t 64 ln 72%. 62 R rng, tr li cu hi la chn in ht nhn hay khng hon ton khng n gin. L mt nc i sau, Vit Nam c iu kin hc hi kinh nghim ca cc nc i trc trnh nhng sai lm m h tng mc phi. Song ch hc c khi thc c rng mnh phi hc v quyt tm hc tp mt cch nghim tc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Nuclear power by country http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Zwentendorf nuclear power plant 57 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Nuclear power phase-out 58 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Three Mile Island accident 59 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Chernobyl disaster 60 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster 61 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Gallup International Association 62 WIN-Gallup International 19/4/2011: Global snap poll on earthquake in Japan and its impact on views about nuclear energy
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Trong s nhng ngi tham gia quyt nh vic xy dng nh my in ht nhn, c bao nhiu ngi c c kin thc cn thit v vn phc tp v h trng ny? C bao nhiu ngi v tinh thn trch nhim m b phiu trng, bi trung thc tha nhn rng mnh khng hiu bit c th la chn gia phiu thun v phiu chng? Trong s 439 i biu c mt ti phin hp Quc hi sng 25/11/2009, c 382 ngi tn thnh thng qua ngh quyt v ch trng u t d n in ht nhn Ninh Thun, 39 ngi khng tn thnh, v ch c 18 v khng biu quyt. 63 Su thng sau khi Quc hi thng qua ch trng u t, Nga c chn lm i tc cung cp cng ngh cho nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun 1. 64 Thng 10/2010, Nht Bn c chn lm i tc xy dng nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun 2. 65 C hai trng hp u khng phi qua th tc u thu quc t nh thng l. 66 Mt vn v cng h trng v phc tp c quyt nh nhanh chng v d dng, nh th c an bi t trc. c c ng thun, ngi ta tuyn truyn l in ht nhn va r, va an ton. 67 Khng ch khng nh v s an ton ca cc nh my in ht nhn s c xy dng Vit Nam, ng Vin trng Vin Nng lng Nguyn T Vit Nam Vng Hu Tn cn ng ra m bo c s an ton ca nh my in ht nhn Trung Quc. Trc vic Trung Quc khi cng xy dng nh my in ht nhn Fangchenggang (Phng Thnh Cng cch bin gii Vit Nam khong 45 km) vo ngy 30/7/2010, 68 ng Tn ni rng ngi dn khng nn lo lng, v phn ln nh my in ht nhn ngy nay s dng l phn ng th h II v c xy dng theo cc quy trnh an ton nghim ngt nn kh nng xy ra s c l rt thp... Trong trng hp trc trc xy ra dn ti r r phng x th cht phng x s khng thot ra khi phm vi nh my. V th, theo ng Tn, khong cch 60 km t nh my ti Phng Thnh Cng ti Qung Ninh khng gy nguy him. 69 iu ng lu l vo thi im m ng Vng Hu Tn thuyt phc ngi Vit yn tm v nh my in ht nhn Phng Thnh Cng, c trang b l phn ng CPR-1000 (do Trung Quc thit k v ch to), th loi l ny cha h c khai thc trn thc t, v phi 2 thng sau (20/9/2010) 70 Trung Quc mi bt u vn hnh thng mi l phn ng CPR-1000 u tin ( tnh Qung ng). 71 Cha y 8 thng sau khi ng Tn ni kh nng xy ra s c l rt thp v cht phng x s khng thot ra khi phm vi nh my, cho nn ti Nht Bn, c nhng ni ngi dn sng cch nh my in ht nhn chng 500 m, th thm ha Fukushima Daiichi p ti. Bi phng x vt hng nghn km, bay n tn chu M. 72 nhim phng x nghim trng n mc chnh ph yu cu hng trm nghn ngi sng trong bn knh 30 km quanh nh my phi i s tn. 73 Cch nh my 40 km, lng Iitate cng chu nhim n mc Greenpeace phi ku gi 7.000 ngi dn nn ri khi khu vc ny. 74 Tri li vi khng nh ca ng Vng Hu Tn l nu c s c xy ra th tt c cc cht phng x s b giam hm trong nh l phn ng khng pht tn ra bn ngoi, 75 cc chuyn gia ca nh my Fukushima Daiichi khng tm mi cch giam hm cc cht phng x, m cn c cho chng thot bt ra ngoi, chp nhn nhim phng x mc nht
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VnEconomy 25/11/2009: Quc hi thng qua ngh quyt v in ht nhn Tinphong Online 9/5/2010: Nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun 1: Chn cng ngh Nga 65 i on kt 20/4/2011: Kho st xy dng nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun 2 66 Trn Thanh Minh: Nga, Nht min u thu nh my in-ht-nhn? 67 Ngc Huyn: in ht nhn: R, an ton, ch nhn lc l... cha n! 68 World Nuclear News 3/8/2010: Construction of Fangchenggang plant starts 69 Minh Long (vnexpress.net 23/7/2010): Khng cn lo lng v nh my in ht nhn Qung Ty 70 World Nuclear News 27/9/2010: New Ling Ao II unit enters into service 71 Sonal Patel (Power 1/11/2010): China begins operation of first CPR-1000 72 Technology Review by MIT 25/3/2011: Fission products in Seattle reveal clues about Japan nuclear disaster 73 Los Angeles Times 25/3/2011: Japan steps up nuclear plant precautions; Kan apologizes 74 Der Tagesspiegel 30/3/2011: Greenpeace fordert Evakuierung von Iitate 75 Ngc Huyn: in ht nhn: R, an ton, ch nhn lc l... cha n!

nh trnh nhng v n nguy him gp bi. 76 Ch ng x p ra ngoi (controlled venting) khi p sut bn trong vt khi tm kim sot l mt gii php khng xa l i vi nhng ngi lm vic trong lnh vc in ht nhn. Khi m p sut trong nh l phn ng (containment) ca t my s 1 ln n 840 kPa, hn gp i so vi mc c php ti a l 400 kPa, 77 th kh m tip tc kin nh lp trng giam hm. Nu qu tht h tin l in ht nhn va r, va an ton th sao khng u tin xy dng nh my gia H Ni trang tr cho th , m li nhng cho Ninh Thun? Nu thit lp mt vnh ai bit th xung quanh nh my in ht nhn, dnh nhng ngi gp phn quyt nh, th h c ng n hay khng? y khng ch l php th lng trung thc, m cn l mt bin php thit thc c th gp phn hn ch s c ht nhn. Mt cng quc nh CHLB c m khng tm ra c bin php hu hiu x l cht thi ht nhn. Mt cng quc nh Nht Bn m bt lc trong vic m bo an ton nh my in nguyn t. Vy Vit Nam nh x l nhng vn y th no? Sao c th nui o tng rng ngi Nga v ngi Nht s xy dng cho Vit Nam nhng nh my in ht nhn tuyt i an ton, trong khi chnh h khng th lm c iu trn t quc mnh? Lu rng 2 thm ha ht nhn ln nht lch s (Chernobyl v Fukushima) u xy ra Nga v Nht Bn. Trong s 17 s c in ht nhn c coi l nghim trng nht ca th k 20, c 4 v xy ra Nga (Kyshtym 1958, tai nn tu ngm 1961, Chernobyl 1986, Sosnovy Bor 1992) v 4 v Nht Bn (Tsuruga 1981, Monju 1995, Tokaimura 1997, Tokaimura 1999). 78 Nu tnh c thm ha Fukushima 3/2011 th Nga v Nht Bn chim ng 50% trong s 18 s c in ht nhn nghim trng nht, trong khi hai nc ny ch chim 6,09% + 12,50% = 18,59% cng sut in ht nhn v 7,26% + 12,47% = 19, 73% s nh my in ht nhn ca c th gii. 79 c bit, c 4 s c nghim trng mi nht (1995, 1997, 1999, 2011) u xy ra Nht Bn (ch trong vng 16 nm). Ngi Nht thng dnh nhng th tt nht nn t nht cho tiu dng ni a, v xut khu nhng th r hn nn khng tt bng ra nc ngoi. Ci tt nht cn khng trnh c thm ha, th ci r hn xut sang Vit Nam s th no? Sau khi thm ha Fukushima xy ra, nm nc o, an Mch, Hy Lp, Irland v Luxemburg i ton b chu u rt khi nng lng ht nhn; 80 Israel dng k hoch xy dng nh my in ht nhn u tin; 81 Nht Bn xt li k hoch xy dng 14 nh my in ht nhn 82 v xut ng ca mt s nh my; 83 Trung Quc ngng cp php xy dng mi cc nh my in ht nhn... 84 Italy, sau khi 2 nh my in ht nhn cui cng phi dng hot ng vo thng 7/1990, chnh ph ca th tng Silvio Berlusconi li thng qua lut cho php xy dng cc nh my in ht nhn mi vo thng 7/2009, 85 nhng ri thm ha Fukushima buc chnh ph Berlusconi phi tuyn b tm dng trin khai k hoch in ht nhn mt nm 86 v t chc trng cu kin ton dn vo ngy 12/6/2011, vi kt qu p o l gn 96% ngi tham gia b phiu phn i in ht nhn. 87

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NISA 27/3/2011: Seismic Damage Information (the 57th Release) World Nuclear News 12/3/2011: Battle to stabilise earthquake reactors 78 http://www.atomicarchive.com: Major nuclear power plant accidents 79 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Nuclear power by country 80 Spiegel Online 21/3/2011: Fnf EU-Lnder fordern europaweiten Atomausstieg 81 Reuters 17/3/2011: Israel's Netanyahu says rethinking nuclear power 82 Kyodo News 31/3/2011: Kan to review plan to build more nuclear plants from scratch 83 JAIF / NHK 3/5/2011: Earthquake report - JAIF, No. 70 84 Louisa Lim (npr 18/3/2001): China pauses to rethink nuclear power program 85 World Nuclear Association: Nuclear power in Italy 86 Liam Moloney (The Wall Street Journal 23/3/2011): Italy approves nuclear pause 87 BBC News 13/6/2011: Italy nuclear: Berlusconi accepts referendum blow

Thay v cng xem xt li k hoch in ht nhn mt cch thn trng nh cc nc khc, cha y mt tun k t khi thm ha bt u, trong lc cc chuyn gia Nht Bn cn ang lng tng, cha tm ra li thot, th ngi ta tuyn b ngay rng Vit Nam vn s tin hnh xy dng cc nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun nh d kin, 88 v khng nh nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun s an ton, 89 thm ch l an ton nht th gii. 90 Ch ring th hin bt chp y cng cho thy nguy c s c ht nhn Vit Nam ln n chng no. Khi cho nn ri inh v n cp np cng honh hnh gia th H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh th c th m bo an ton in ht nhn c hay khng? Khi thc trch nhim khng vt qu nhim k th c th quyt nh nhng vn h trng c hu qu lu di cho t nc hay khng? Do hn ch v trnh v kinh nghim, do tp qun ty tin v thi quen lm u, do hn ch ca b my lnh o v thiu minh bch thng tin, nguy c him ha in ht nhn Vit Nam cn cao hn gp bi so vi Nga v Nht Bn. Ch cn mt trong 5 c tnh dt, ch quan, u, liu lnh v v trch nhim cng c th gy ra thm ha ht nhn, hung chi l hi c 5. My iu ng li Nguy c tai ha tn ti vnh vin cng cc nh my in ht nhn. Cng ngh ht nhn khng ngng tin b, nhng khng bao gi t c trng thi hon ho v tuyt i an ton. n gin v c lp nh h iu hnh Windows m Microsoft cn phi v li quanh nm, hung chi l cng ngh phc tp v mang tnh tng hp nh cng ngh ht nhn. An ton in ht nhn ph thuc vo c nhng yu t ngoi cng ngh. Thin tai hay xy ra ngoi kh nng d on v vt qua kh nng tng tng. Khi thin nhin ni gin th mi cng ngh u bt lc v mi khng c ca con ngi u b bp. Khng mt cng quc no nm ngoi qui lut y. Thm vo , s tn ti ca cc nh my in ht nhn khin x hi tr nn d b e da v d b tn thng hn trc nn khng b. D t ng ha n u i na th con ngi vn l mt yu t quyt nh i vi qu trnh xy dng v vn hnh nh my in ht nhn. D l lnh o cp cao hay qun l trc tip, d l chuyn gia hay cng nhn k thut, con ngi khng bao gi hon ton thot khi nhng hn ch t nhin ca mnh. Con ngi hay s xut, m ch cn mt s xut nh trong k thut ht nhn cng c th dn n hu qu khng khip. Chnh sai lm ca con ngi dn n thm ha ht nhn Chernobyl 91 v Fukushima. 92 Khng tn ti cng ngh no c th loi b trit li ca con ngi. iu ny ng vi Nga, vi Nht, th li cng ng vi Vit Nam. Ngy cng c nhiu ngi nhn thc c rng: D cng ngh ht nhn c c mc an ton ti a th vn st li mt khng gian bao la ca him ha ht nhn (rest risk), hon ton nm ngoi tm vi ca cng ngh. C th tai nn ht nhn t hn so vi mt s loi tai nn khc, nhng khi xy ra th rt d tr thnh thm ha, vt khi kh nng khng ch v khc phc ca con ngi, khin li ch ca nh my in ht nhn bin thnh s m khng l, v mi s tr nn v ngha.

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Vietnamnet 18/3/2011: Vit Nam vn xy dng nh my in ht nhn Ngi lao ng 13/4/2011: Nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun s an ton 90 Tinphong Online 3/8/2011: Nh my in ht nhn ca Vit Nam: An ton nht th gii 91 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki: Chernobyl disaster 92 NHK 1/5/2011: TEPCO official: Fukushima is man-made disaster

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Khng th p dng li lp lun xc sutthng k bin h cho an ton ht nhn. C th v l thuyt th thm ha ln (hn so vi Chernobyl 1986 v Fukushima 2011) ch xy ra mt ln trong trm nm. Nhng thc t th khng phi i lu nh vy. Ci ln c cho l duy nht y c th xy ra ngay trong nay mai, v hu qu ca n cng cho trm nm sau... Tai ha ht nhn khng bit tun theo k lut, khng bit li trc quyt tm chnh tr. N s xy ra do tc ng khn lng ca thin nhin v do s kch hot ca con ngi. Tic rng, khi n p n li khng cha mt ai, hm hi c nhng ngi v ti, thm ch h cn phi chu hu qu nng n hn c nhng ngi c hng li trong phi v in ht nhn. C th chp nhn hay khng chp nhn in ht nhn, nhng quyt nh y phi da vo nhng kin thc khoa hc chnh xc v khch quan, trn c s cn nhc lihi mt cch thn trng, vi thc tnh to v nguy c khng th trnh khi ca tai nn ht nhn. Khng th ru ng cng ng bng nhng li ha ho huyn. Khng th v quyn li trc mt ca mt s ngi m gy hi lu di cho li ch ca mun dn. t nc ny l ca ton dn, tri t ny l ca ton nhn loi, ca th h hm nay v c nhng th h mai sau. Nhng chnh sch nh hng n hng triu sinh mng phi c cn nhc thn trng v quyt nh bi hng triu ci u. Khng th p t s thch ca mnh, bt chp quyn la chn li sng ca hng triu ngi khc! H Ni, 14/6/2011

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