CHNG TM

8
NI DUNG CHNH

PHN TCH V DIN GII D LIU TRONG NGHIN CU MARKETING

Ni dung chng ny bn n bao gm: Th no l gi thuyt nghin cu Cc loi sai lm khi thc hin kim nh gi thuyt Cc bc gii quyt mt bi ton kim nh Cc phng php kim nh tham s Cc phng php kim nh phi tham s

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M HNH LA CHN PHNG PHP KIM NH Gi thit thng k l mt gi thit c lin quan n mt trong ba vn sau: (1) Tnh c lp hay ph thuc ca i lng ngu nhin cn nghin cu. (2) Dng ca qui lut phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin. (3) Gi tr ca tham s ca qui lut phn phi xc sut bit dng. (1) & (2) l gi thit phi tham s v (3) l gi thit v tham s. Trong phn ny s gii thiu phng php kim nh gi thit v tham s nh tham s trung bnh x trong qui lut phn phi chun N(,2), tham s t l p trong qui lut phn phi A(P), tham s chi bnh phng, tham s Fisher Trong khun kh cun sch ny, chng ti ch gii thiu cch thc p dng nhng phng php kim nh gii quyt nhng vn lin quan n nghin cu tip th, nhng vn khc lin quan n vic gii thch bn cht ca cc cng thc c th tham kho thm trong cc gio trnh chuyn mn v thng k ton. Cc khi nim c bn Gi thit cn kim nh Gi s i lng ngu nhin X cn nghin cu tun theo mt qui lut phn phi xc sut bit dng, nhng cha bit gi tr ca tham s no ca n. Trn c s nhng tin tc thu c, ta c th gi nh rng = 0, trong 0 l s thc. Tt nhin iu gi nh = 0 ny c th ng hoc c th sai, do cn phi kim tra li gi nh . T ta c gi thit cn kim nh l {H0: = 0}. Cc gi thit i (i thit) V gi thit H0 cng c th ng v cng c th sai vi mt tin cy no , khi gi thit H0 sai th ta phi bc b n. Khi phi chp nhn mt trong ba gi thit i (k hiu: H1) sau y: - Trong trng hp kim nh dng "hai ui" (Two-tail test):

H 0 : = 0 H1 : 0
- Trong trng hp kim nh dng "mt ui" (One-tail test):

H 0 : = 0 H 1 : > 0

hoc

H 0 : = 0 H1 : < 0

Do vy trong bi ton kim nh gi thit, sau khi ra gi thit cn kim nh H0, ta cn pht biu km mt gi thit i H1 khng nh rng nu nh gi thit H0 b bc b th ta chp nhn gi thit i km theo vi mt mc ngha no y (1- c gi l tin cy). Cc loi sai lm Ch rng, v mu khng phi l hnh nh chnh xc ca tng th, nn mi mu chn c u cha mt sai s ngu nhin no . Do vy, khi da vo mu kim nh gi thit c th gp phi hai loi sai lm sau: - Sai lm loi 1: Khi ta bc b mt gi thit ng. - Sai lm loi 2: Khi ta tha nhn mt gi thit sai.
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Trong khi tin hnh kim nh, ngi ta thng n nh trc mt xc sut mc sai lm loi 1. Nu xc sut ny bng , th c gi l mc ngha ca kim nh (thng thng phi kh b, = 0,05, = 0,1). Gi thit H0 ng Chp nhn Bc b Quyt nh ng Sai lm loi 1 (xc sut ) Gi thit H0 sai Sai lm loi 2 (xc sut ) Quyt nh ng

Tiu chun kim nh v min bc b Sau khi ra gi thuyt H0 cn kim nh km theo gi thit i H1 v qui nh mc ngha , ta cn phi tm mt thng k T cng qui lut phn phi xc sut ca n. Vi mt mc ngha xc nh, ta lun tm c mi min W, tha mn iu kin P K W H 0 = (xc sut

K thuc min min bc b W vi iu kin H0 ng bng ). Do kh b, nn ta c th coi bin c (KW) l bin c khng th c (vi iu kin gi thit H0 ng). V vy, trong thc t nu da vo gi tr x ca mu ngu nhin X, ta tnh c gi tr kqs ca thng k K m li thy gi tr kqsW, th iu ny s mu thun vi iu kin ni trn. Nguyn nhn sinh ra mu thun gia l thuyt v thc t l do ta gi thit rng H0 ng. trnh mu thun ny ta phi bc b gi thit, v th W c gi l min bc b v kqs c gi l tiu chun kim nh. Ch : - Khi gi thit H0 ng th tiu chun kim nh K vn c th nhn gi tr kqsW vi xc sut xy ra l . V vy trong trng hp kqsW m ta bc b gi thit H0 th ta c th mc sai lm loi 1, vi xc sut mc sai lm loi 1 chnh l . khng bc b mt gi thit sai P K qs W H 1 = 1 l xc sut mc sai lm loi 2 v s c gi l xc sut khng mc sai lm loi 2, ngi ta gi l hiu lc ca kim nh. - Vi kch thc mu n xc nh th vi mu tiu chun kim nh ta s c min bc b W tha mn iu kin: P(K qs W H 0 ) = . Nu tn ti mt tiu chun kim nh kqs vi min bc b W sao cho (1-) l nh nht v ln nht. Khi kqs c gi l tiu chun kim nh mnh nht. Mt tiu chun c coi l mnh nht th n m bo 3 yu cu: - Xc sut mc sai lm loi 1 l qui nh trc. - Xc sut mc sai lm loi 2 l nh nht. - Khi bc b gi thit H0 th ta c th tha nhn gi thit i H1. Nh vy chng ta c th xc nh min bc b v min chp nhn trong cc trng hp kim nh mt ui v hai ui l: - Trong kim nh hai ui:

- Nu ta k hiu P(k qs W H 1 ) = th l xc sut bc b mt gi thit sai. Do , xc sut

133

Min bc b

Min chp nhn -W1-/2 W1-/2

Min bc b

- Trong kim nh mt ui:

Min bc b

Min chp nhn -W1-

Min chp nhn W1-

Min bc b

Cc bc chung gii bi ton kim nh Bc 1: Pht biu gi thit v i thit

H 0 : = 0 H1 : 0
+ Mc ngha

hoc

H 0 : = 0 H 1 : > 0

hoc

H 0 : = 0 H 1 : < 0

Bc 2: Xc nh mc ngha v xy dng min bc b + Min bc b (ty thuc vo phng php kim nh, loi phn phi v mc ngha). Bc 2: La chn phng php kim nh v loi phn phi ca n. Bc 4: Tnh gi tr quan st ca tiu chun kim nh kqs Bc 5: So snh vi min bc b kt lun:
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- Nu kqs W ta s bc b gi thit H0 v tha nhn gi thit H1. - Nu kqs W : Ta kt lun rng cha c c s tha nhn gi thit H1. C th tm tt cc bc gii bi ton kim nh theo s sau:
B1: Pht biu gi thit v i thit B2: Xc nh mc ngha B3: La chn phng php kim nh v loi phn phi ca n B4: Tnh gi tr kim nh (gi tr quan st) kqs B5: Tm min bc b v kt lun

CC PHNG PHP KIM NH THAM S Kim nh gi thit v tham s trung bnh ca tng th iu kin: Bin nh lng v phn phi ca bin phi tun theo quy lut phn phi chun. Trng hp bit phng sai (2) hoc lch chun ca tng th i vi trng hp kim nh gi thit v tham s trung bnh ca tng th, chng ta c th thc hin thng qua cc bc sau: B1: Pht biu gi thit v i thit: i xng Gi thit i thit H0: H1: = 0 0 H0: H1: Phi 0 > 0 H0: H1: Tri 0 < 0

B2: Xc nh mc ngha B3: Xc nh phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh tham s trung bnh vi bit. B 4: Tnh tiu chun kim nh
K qs U =

(x )
0

, trong x l trung bnh mu.

Bc 3: Xc nh min bc b Min bc b W l tp hp nhng im tho mn iu kin: x 0 W = U = hay

n ,U 1

U U

kim nh i xng - bc b H0, chp nhn H1 vi 0.

135

U U 1 kim nh pha phi - bc b H0, chp nhn H1 vi > 0. U U 1 kim nh pha phi - bc b H0, chp nhn H1 vi < 0. Chng ta so snh kqs vi W a ra kt lun tin cho vic theo di, c th tm lc nhng bc ca bi ton kim nh tham s trung bnh trn nh bng sau: KIM NH THAM S TRUNG BNH CA TNG TH (khi bit) 1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Gi thit i thit H0: H1: = 0 0 H0: H1: Phi 0 > 0 H0: H1: Tri 0 < 0

2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim: Tham s trung bnh tng th 4. Tiu chun kim nh: (khi cha bit thay bng s) (x 0 ) n k qs U = 5. im ti hn v min bc b: i xng im ti hn Min bc b Biu hin qua hnh v - U1-/2 v U1-/2 U<- U1-/2 v U>U1-/2
BB -U1-/2 CN BB U1-/2

Phi U1- U>U1-

BB U1- BB

Tri - U1- U<-U1-

-U1-

V d: Trng lng mt loi sn phm do nh my sn xut l i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut phn phi chun, c trng lng qui nh l 20kg v lch chun l 2kg. C kin cho rng: Do thit b hot ng khng n nh nn trng lng sn phm thay i, ngi ta tin hnh kim tra 100 sn phm v o c trng lng trung bnh l 20,35kg. Vi mc ngha = 0,05. Hy kt lun xem trng lng ca sn phm thay i cha? Cho bit U0,975=1,96. Gii: Gi X l trng lng sn phm do nh my sn xut. Theo gi thit X l i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut phn phi chun, trong = 2(kg), M(X) = 20(kg). Ta c bi ton kim nh gi thit v gi tr tham s ca qui lut phn phi chun. B1. Pht biu gi thit: H0 : = 0= 20(kg) H1: 0 B2. Mc ngha =0,05 B3. Phng php kim nh: y l bi ton kim nh tham s trung bnh vi lch chun bit.
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B4. Xc nh tiu chun kim nh: Tiu chun kim nh c chn l:

k qs U =

(x )

n (20,35 20 ) 100 3,5 = = 1,75 2 2

B5. Xc nh min bc b v kt lun: Vi mc ngha = 0,05, min bc b tng ng trong trng hp ny c dng:
x 0 W = U =

,U U

= U 0,975 = 1,96
1,96 Min bc b

Minh ha bng hnh v:

1,75 Min bc b

Kt lun: V kqs W nn cha c c s bc b gi thit H0, tc l kin cho rng trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm b thay i l cha c c s. Trng hp cha bit phng sai (2): i vi trng hp cha bit phng sai tng th, cn phi xem xt hai trng hp sau: a. Trng hp mu nh n<30 Trong trng hp cha bit phng sai, cc gi thit v i thit cng ging nh trng hp bit phng sai. Tuy nhin, tnh ton gi tr kim nh, cn phi tm lch chun iu chnh (s) ca mu tin hnh phn tch. V mu kh nh (n<30), c th gi nh hm phn phi tun theo hm T-student. Khi , tiu chun kim nh c chn l:
k qs T =

(x )
s
0 '

Vi x l trung bnh mu v s l chnh lch chun iu chnh ca mu. Vi mc ngha , min bc b:

x 0 W = T = s'

, T(n 1)

Khi :

T T(n 1) hoc P(T)<

2

bc b H0, chp nhn H1 (hay 0). bc b H0, chp nhn H1 (hay > 0). bc b H0, chp nhn H1 (hay < 0).

T T(n 1) hoc P(T)<2

T T(n 1) hoc P(T)<2

V d : Mt nh sn xut mt loi bng n cho bit tui th trung bnh thp nht ca cc bng n l 150 gi. Kim tra mt cch ngu nhin 25 bng n, ngi ta o c tui th trung bnh ca chng l 145 gi. Vi tin cy 99%, c th kt lun g v li tuyn b trn. Cho bit,
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 lch chun hiu chnh mu l 6 gi v tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n trn l i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Gii: Gi l tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n trn, theo gi thit l i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Ta c bi ton kim nh gi thit tham s vi n 30. B1. Pht biu gi thit: H0 : H1 :

0 = 150 <0

B2. Xc nh mc ngha =0,05 B3. Phng php kim nh: y l trng hp kim nh mt ui bn tri vi mu nh, cha bit. B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh: Tiu chun kim nh l :
k qs T = (x ) s' n = (145 150 ) 6 25 = 4 ,167

Vi mc ngha = 0,01, min bc b:

X 0 W = T = S

( 24 ) ( , T < T n 1 ) = T 0 , 01 = 2 ,49

Minh ha bng hnh v

-4,167
Min bc b -2,49

Kt lun: V kqsW nn chng ta bc b gi thit H0 v chp nhn i thuyt H1, ngha l li tuyn b rng tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n trn thp nht l 150 gi l sai. b. Trng hp mu nh n30
( Nu kch thc mu n 30, khi gi tr Tn1) s tin n gi tr U/2, khi tiu chun kim

nh trong trng hp ny l: k qs U =

(x )
s
0 '

V d: Cng ty thit b vin thng ATC tin hnh mt cuc nghin cu tm hiu mc hi lng ca khch hng sau khi thay i, ci tin mt s dch v nhm nng cao kh nng p ng yu cu khch hng ca h. Trc khi ci tin cc dch v, mc hi lng ca khch hng trung bnh l 75 (theo thang im t 0 n 100). Chn ngu nhin 350 khch hng tham kho kin ca h sau khi cc dch v c ci tin, mc hi lng trung bnh tnh c l 82 vi lch iu chnh mu l 8. Vi tin cy 95%, c th kt lun rng khch hng c hi lng mc cao hn khng? Gii: B1. Pht biu gi thit v i thit:
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V cng ty quan tm n vic ci tin cc dch v ca cng ty thit b vin thng c lm tha mn khch hng mc cao hn so vi trc hay khng. Do ta t gii thit: H0: 0 = 75 H1: >0 = 75 B2. Chn mc ngha =0,05 B3. Xc nh phng php kim inh: y l bi ton kim nh tham s trung bnh, cha bit, mu ln hn 30 B4. Tnh gi tr kim nh
k qs U =

(x )
s
0 ,

(82 75 ) 350 = 6 , 2363 8

B4. Tnh gi tr kim nh Vi mc ngha = 0,05 v y l bi ton kim nh mt ui nn min bc b tng ng trong trng hp ny c dng:
x 0 W = U = s'

, U > U 1 = U 0 , 95 = 1,645

Vi mc ngha 5%,v U1-=1,645

1,645 Min bc b 6,2363

Kt lun: V kqsW nn gi thit H0 b bc b, ta kt lun rng vi vic ci tin cc dch v, cng ty thit b vin thng ATC lm cho tha mn khch hng mc cao hn trc Kim nh gi thit tham s t l Trong mt s trng hp, chng ta cn kim nh gi thit v tham s t l ca cc phn t loi A (loi phn t m chng ta mun nghin cu) trong tng th (P), gi fn l t l ca phn t loi A c trong mu v P0 l mt t l c xc nh trc. Quy trnh kim nh nh sau: B1. Pht biu gi thit v i thit i xng Gi thit i thit H0: H1: P = P0 P P0 H0: H1: Phi P P0 P > P0 H0: H1: Tri P P0 P < P0

B2. La chn mc ngha =0,05 B3. Phng php kim nh: Kim nh tham s t l cc phn t loi A c trong tng th. B4. Tnh gi tr kim nh: k qs U =

( f n P0 ) n P0 (1 P0 )
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B5. Min bc b v kt lun:

Vi cho trc, ta c min bc b W l:

( f P0 ) n ;U W = U = n 1 P0 (1 P0 ) Khi : U U 1 kim nh pha phi - bc b H0 v chp nhp H1 (hay P > P0). U U 1 kim nh pha tri - bc b H0 v chp nhn H1 (hay P < P0).

U U

kim nh i xng bc b H0 v chp nhn H1 (hay P P0).

Chng ta so snh kqs vi W a ra kt lun Cc bc ca bi ton kim nh tham s t l cc phn t loi A trong tng th c th hin trong bng sau: KIM NH THAM S T L CA TNG TH 1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Phi Tri Gi thit H0: P = P0 H0: P P0 H0: P P0 i thit H1: P > P0 H1: P < P0 P P0 H1: 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim tham s t l tng th 4. Tiu chun kim nh: ( f n P0 ) n P = P0 (1 P0 ) 5. im ti hn v min bc b: i xng Phi Tri im ti hn - U1-/2 v U1-/2 U1- - U1- Min bc b P<- U1-/2 v P>U1-/2 P>U1- P<-U1- M hnh
BB -U1-/2 CN BB U1-/2 BB U1- BB -U1-

V d: Gi s mt sn phm ca cng ty sn xut v xe t chim c 42% th trng. Hin ti, trc s cnh tranh ca i th v nhng iu kin thay di ca mi trng, ban lnh o cng ty mun kim tra li xem th phn ca cng ty c cn l 42% hay khng. Chn ngu nhin 550 t trn ng, kt qu cho thy 219 xe s dng v xe ca cng ty. C kt lun g mc ngha 5%. Gii: Trng hp ny ta ch quan tm n th phn ca cng ty c cn l 42% hay khng. Khi : B1. Pht biu gi thit v i thit: Ho: H1: P = P0 = 0,42 P P0 = 0,42

B2. Chn mc ngha =0,01 B3. Chn phng php kim nh: Phng php im nh i xng tham s t l trong tng th.
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B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh

k qs P = ( f n P0 ) n 219 0,42 ) 550 = 550 = 1,037 P0 (1 P0 ) 0,42 (1 0,42 ) (

Vi mc ngha 5%, ta c th xc nh min bc b nh sau:

( f P0 ) n W = U = n , U > U = U 0 , 975 = 1,96 1 P0 (1 P0 ) 2

Th hin qua hnh v

Min bc b -1,96 -1,037 Min bc b -1,96

V kqsW nn chng ta bc b gi thit H0 v chp nhp H1 c ngha th phn ca cng ty thay i so vi 42%. Kim nh s khc nhau gia trung bnh ca hai tng th iu kin ng dng: Hai bin nghin cu (i din o lng hai mu) phi l bin nh lng, tun theo quy lut phn phi chun v phng sai bng nhau. Kim nh tham s trung bnh da trn hai bin (mu) c lp a.Trng hp bit phng sai 2 ca cc mu iu kin thc hin phng php kim nh s khc bit ca hai trung bnh tng th (da trn mu ngu nhin c lp) l d liu mu phi theo lut phn phi chun. B1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Gi thit i thit B2. Chn mc ngha B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh : Phng php kim nh s khc bit tham s trung bnh gia hai mu (c lp) Phn phi chun. B4. Xc nh tiu chun kim nh :
k qs U = x y D0

Phi H0: x - y D0 H1: x - y > D0

Tri H0: x - y D0 H1: x - y < D0

H0: x - y = D0 H1: x - y D0

x2
nx

2 y

ny

B5. Min bc b v kt lun: Min bc b vi cho trc :

141

Nu H1 ng tc x - y > D0, khi W: U =

x y D0

2 x

nx
x2
nx

2 y

> U1

ny
2 y

Nu H1 ng tc x - y < D0, khi W: U = x y D0 < U 1

+ ny

Nu H1 ng tc x - y < D0, khi W : U = x y D0 U

x2
nx +
2 y

ny

Tnh h s quan st, so snh vi min bc b v kt lun. V d: Ngi ta tin hnh nghin cu v thi gian s dng trung bnh ca hai nhn hiu pin X v Y (cng chng loi) ca hai nh sn xut khc nhau. Chn ngu nhin mi nhn hiu 100 vin pin kt qu ghi nhn c nh sau: Pin X c thi gian s dng trung bnh l 308 pht, lch chun 84 pht, cc ch s tng tng ca pin Y ln lt l 254 pht v 67 pht. Vi mc ngha = 0,10 ,c th kt lun thi gian s dng trung bnh ca pin X ln hn pin Y t nht l 45 pht c khng ? Bit thi gian s dng trung bnh ca hai nhn hiu pin trn l cc i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Gii: p dng phng php kim nh s khc bit gia hai trung bnh tng th theo lut phn phi chun (cha bit v nx, ny <30). Gi thi gian s dng trung bnh ca pin X v Y ln lt l x ,y; khi x ,y l cc i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Theo bi, chng ta cn quan tm n vic thi gian s dng trung bnh ca pin X c ln hn pin Y t nht l 45 pht hay khng. Do vy, B1. Gi thit v i thit: H0: x - y 45 H1: x - y > 45 B2. Chn mc ngha =0.1 B3. Phng php kim nh : Phng php kim nh s khc bit gia hai tham s trung bnh khi a bit B4. Tiu chun kim nh :
k qs = x y D0 308 254 45 84 2 67 2 + 100 100

2 x

nx

2 y

= 0 , 838

ny

B5. Min bc b vi =0,05 cho trc : Ta c W :

U= x y D0

x2
nx

2 y

> U 1 = U 0,90 = 1,28

ny

142

Minh ha bng v:
0,838 1,28
Min bc b

Kt lun: v kqs W nn ta cha th bc b H0 v chp nhn H1, tc l cha c c s kt lun thi gian s dng trung bnh ca pin X c ln hn pin Y t nht l 45 pht. b.Trng hp cha bit 2: Trng hp kch thc mu ln (nx, ny 30): Trng hp kch thc mu ln (nx, ny 30) vi gi nh c hai tng th X v Y phn phi chun, ta c th dng cng thc v quy tc trn kim nh v vi phng sai hiu chnh mu s2x, s2y thay cho phng sai tng th k c trng hp phn phi tng th khng chun. Trng hp kch thc mu nh (nx<30; ny< 30): Phng php kim nh s khc bit ca hai trung bnh tng th (da trn mu ngu nhin c lp) theo lut phn phi Student (cha bit ): Trong trng hp mu nh (hoc nx, hoc ny <30, hoc c nx, ny <30). Chng ta vn dng s2x v s2y thay cho phng sai tng th. nhng khi tiu chun kim nh s theo phn phi Student vi s bc t do c xc nh theo cng thc:
( btd =
' s x2 + n x '2 x

s n

'2 y y

s 'y2 2 s 2 ( ) ( ) n y n x + n x 1 n y 1

B1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Gi thit i thit H0: x - y = D0 H1: x - y D0 Phi H0: x - y D0 H1: x - y > D0 Tri H0: x - y D0 H1: x - y < D0

B2. Chn mc ngha B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh : Phng php kim nh s khc bit tham s trung bnh gia hai mu (c lp). B4. Tiu chun kim nh :
K T = x y D s n
'2 x x 0

s n

'2 y y

B5. Min bc b vi cho trc:

143

Nu H1 ng tc x - y > D0, khi W:

T =

x y D0

s
Nu H1 ng tc x - y < D0, khi W:
T =

,2 x

nx

,2 y

>

btd

ny

x y D0 s s + nx ny
'2 x '2 y

< Tbtd

Nu H1 ng tc x - y D0, khi W:

T =

x y D0 s s + nx ny
'2 x '2 y

< T btd
2

Tnh h s quan st, so snh vi W v kt lun . V d: Kim tra chiu di trung bnh ca mt chi tit c ch to t hai thit b khc nhau mt cch ngu nhin, ta c : mu ngu nhin 15 chi tit ca thit b th nht c chiu di trung bnh l 100 cm v lch chun hiu chnh l 5 cm ; mu ngu nhin 10 chi tit ca thit b th hai c chiu da trung bnh l 110 cm v lch chun hiu chnh l 3cm. Vi mc ngha = 0,05, hy kt lun xem kch thc trung bnh ca chi tit trn c ch to hai thit b trn c nh nhau hay khng. Bit chiu di trung bnh ca chi tit trn l i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Gii: p dng phng php kim nh s khc bit gia hai trung bnh tng th theo lut phn phi chun (cha bit v nx, ny <30). Gi chiu di trung bnh ca chi tit c ch to trn hai thit b ln lt l x ,y vi x, y l cc i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun. Theo bi, chng ta cn phi kim tra xem kch thc ca chi tit c ch to trn hai thit b c nh nhau hay khng. B1. Gi thit v i thit: H0: x - y = 0 H1: x - y 0 B2. Chn mc ngha B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh s khc bit tham s trung bnh gia hai mu (c lp), cha bit. B4. Tiu chun kim nh:
T = x y D0 s s + nx ny
'2 x '2 y

T btd = T 022 = 2 , 074 , 025

2

Trong bc t do c xc nh theo cng thc :

144

btd

25 9 2 + ) 15 10 = = 22 , 84 9 2 25 2 ) ) ( ( 15 + 10 9 14 (

Minh ha bng hnh v:

-6,242
-2,074 Min bc b 2,074 Min bc b

Kt lun: kqs W, ta bc b gi thit H0 v chp nhn i thuyt H1, ngha l chiu di trung bnh ca chi tit c ch to hai thit b trn l khc nhau. Hai bin (mu) phi hp tng cp iu kin p dng: Khi tin hnh so snh s khc nhau gia trung bnh hai tng th, hai mu cn tha mn iu kin l d liu phi tun theo quy lut phn phi chun v phng sai ca hai mu phi bng nhau. B1. Gi thuyt v i thuyt: i xng Gi thit i thit H0: x - y = D0 H1: x - y D0 Phi H1: x - y D0 H1: x - y > D0 Tri H0: x - y D0 H1: x - y < D0

B2. La chn mc ngha B3. La chn phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh s khc nhau trung bnh ca hai tng th (mu phi hp tng cp), chng ta dng bng phn phi chun (nu mu ln hn hoc bng 30) hay phn phi T-student (nu mu nh hn 30) B4. Tiu chun kim nh
K D = ( x D0 ) n vi x v sd l trung bnh v lch chun ca n khc bit. s'd

B5. Min bc b vi cho trc: Nu H0 : x - y > D0, khi W: T =

( x D0 ) n > U1- (hoc -T(n-1); nu n<30) s 'd

Nu H0 : x - y < D0, khi W:

T =

( x D0 ) n < U1- (hoc -T(n-1); nu n<30) s 'd

Nu H0: x - y D0, khi W: T =

( x D0 ) n U1-/2 (hoc T(n-1);/2 nu n<30) s 'd

Tnh h s quan st kqs so snh vi min bc b v kt lun. M hnh ca bi ton kim nh s khc bit gia hai tham s trung bnh c th tm lc biu sau:
145

KIM NH THAM S KHC NHAU HAI TRUNG BNH TNG TH (da trn s phn phi tng cp) 1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Phi Tri Gi thit H0: x - y =D0 H0: x - y D0 H0: x - y D0 i thit H1: x - y D0 H1: x - y > D0 H1: x - y < D0 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim s khc nhau ca hai trung bnh tng th - Bng phn phi chun hoc T-student (nu n<30) (x D0 ) n 4. Tiu chun kim nh T hoc U: kqs T = s'd x v sd l trung bnh v lch chun iu chnh ca n khc bit 5. im ti hn v min bc b: i xng Phi Tri im ti hn T(n-1);1- - T(n-1);1- - T(n-1);1-/2 v T(n-1);1/2

Min bc b M hnh
BB

D<- T(n-1);1-/2 v D>T(n-1);1-/2

CN BB T(n-

D>T(n-1);1-
BB T(n-1);1- BB

D<-T(n-1);1-

-T(n-1);1-/2

-T(n-1);1-

V d: Mt cng ty ha m phm tin hnh mt chin dch khuyn mi nhm mc ch tng doanh s. nh gi xem vic khuyn mi c thc s lm tng doanh s hay khng, cng ty chn ngu nhin 15 ca hng trong h thng phn phi sn phm ca mnh v kho st s khc bit v doanh s bn trong tun l trc v sau chin dch khuyn mi. S liu thu thp c th hin trong bng sau: Ca hng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Doanh s trong tun (triu ng) Trc khuyn mi 57 61 12 38 12 69 5 69 88 9 92 26 14 70 22 Sau khuyn mi 60 54 20 35 21 70 1 65 79 10 90 32 19 77 29 di=(xi-yi) -3 7 -8 3 -9 -1 4 4 9 -1 2 -6 -5 -7 -7 -18 x =-1.2 (di- x )2 3,24 67,24 46,24 17,64 60,84 0,04 27,04 27,04 104,04 0,04 10,24 23,04 14,44 33,64 33,64 468,40 sd=5,78
146

Vi mc ngha =0,05, c th kt lun chin dch khuyn mi lm tng doanh s hay khng? Gii: Gi x , y ln lt l doanh s trung bnh sau v trc khi thc hin chin dch khuyn mi, x , y l i lng ngu nhin tun theo quy lut phn phi T-student (v n=15<30) B1. Gi thit v i thit: H0 : H1:

x - y 0 x - y > 0

B2. Mc ngha =0,05. B3. Phng php kim nh: Kim nh s khc nhau gia hai trung bnh ca tng th (hai mu phi hp tng cp). B4. Tnh gi tr kim nh:
k qs D = ( x D0 ) n vi x v sd l trung bnh v lch chun ca n khc bit. s 'd

T s liu trn, ta tnh c x =-1,2 v sd = 5,78. Khi Kqs s l:

k qs = (x D0 ) n 1, 2 15 = = 0 ,803 ' sd 5 , 78

B4. Min bc b v kt lun: Vi H1: x - y > 0, khi W : T =

(x D 0 ) n >T(n-1); = T(14),0,05 = 1,761 s' d

Minh ha bng hnh v:

-0,803 1,761
Min bc b

Kt lun: v kqs khng thuc W nn cha c c s bc b gi thit H0 v chp nhn gi thuyt i H1 mc ngha =0,05, hay chin dch khuyn mi ca cng ty vn cha lm tng doanh s. Kim nh s khc nhau gia trung bnh t hai mu tr ln Phn tch ANOVA (Gm mt bin nh lng v mt bin phn loi (bin nh tnh)) Mc tiu ca phn tch phng sai l so snh trung bnh ca nhiu tng th da trn cc trung bnh mu, y l hnh thc m rng ca kim nh T-student. Trong trng hp bin phn loi c nhiu hn 2, chng ta thng s dng phn tch phng sai (ANOVA Analysis of variance). Ti sao vy?, bi v khi s dng kim nh t i vi hai mu c lp, trong trng hp bin phn loi c 3 hoc nhiu hn 3 nhm, chng ta phi thc hin rt nhiu cp (k) so snh ln nhau tng i mt, iu ny dn n mt tnh trng l sai s ca kim nh s ln hn rt nhiu so vi mong mun ban u. V d, mi mt kim nh Z hay t (kim nh s khc nhau tham s trung bnh gia hai mu c lp) cha ng mt sai s dng I, tng sai s ca dng I i vi k i gi tr trung bnh bng I=1-(1 - )k. Trong mt trng hp c th, gi s chng ta c mt bin phn loi
147

vi 5 gi tr la chn v = 0,05, khi chng ta s c 10 so snh nu chng ta dng phng php kim nh t. Sai s dng I ca kim nh t khi s l: I =1 (1- )k = 1- (1-0,05) = 1-(0,95)10 = 0.40 Trong trng hp ny, sai s chng ta bc b gi thuyt H0 v bng nhau ca cc gi tr trung bnh ngay c khi H0 ng l 40% ch khng phi l 5% nh ban u. Cc iu kin s dng: Cc mu c rt ra theo cch ngu nhin v c lp (iu kin ny phi c m bo), cc tng th c phn phi chun (hoc gn phn phi chun) v cc tng th c cng phng sai. Phn tch phng sai mt chiu: (One-Way Analysis of Variance) Phn tch phng sai mt chiu l phn tch da trn nh hng ca mt nhn t nh lng n mt nhn t nh tnh (dng phn loi). Gi s t mt bin phn loi, chng ta c th chia tng th thnh k nhm tun theo quy lut phn phi chun v c phng sai bng nhau da trn k mu ngu nhin c lp gm n1, n2,..., nk quan st. Gi xij l gi tr ca bin nh lng ang nghin cu ti quan st th j ca nhm th I, khi , x 1 , x 2 ,, x k l gi tr trung bnh ca cc nhm, x l trung bnh chung ca tt c cc nhm theo bin nh lng ang nghin cu. Gi gi tr trung bnh ca cc nhm trong tng th l 1, 2,, k th phng php phn tch phng sai s cho php chng ta so snh s khc nhau gia tham s trung bnh ca 2 hay nhiu nhm c trong mu suy rng ln tng th. B1. Gi thit v i thit trong phn tch phng sai mt chiu c pht biu nh sau: H0: 1= 2 = = k H1: Tn ti t nht mt gi tr trung bnh ca nhm th I (i) khc vi t nht mt gi tr trung bnh ca nhm cn li. B2. La chn mc ngha B3. Bi ton phn tch phng sai mt chiu (One-way ANOVA). B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh tnh tiu chun kim nh trong phn tch phng sai (ANOVA), chng ta cn tin hnh tnh cc ch tiu sau:

- Tng lch bnh phng gia cc nhm (Sum of squares between groups): phn nh bin thin ca bin nh lng nh nghin cu do tc ng ca bin phn loi ang xem xt
SSG = ( x x i ) 2
i =1 k

- Tng lch bnh phng trong ni b nhm (Sum of squares within groups) phn nh bin thin ngu nhin do nh hng ca cc yu t khc khng xem xt mu.
SSW = ( x ij x i ) 2
i =1 j =1 k ni

- Tng cc lch bnh phng ton b (Total sum of squares): phn nh ton b bin thin ca bin nh lng ang nghin cu.
148

SST = ( xij x) 2 hay SST = SSW + SSG.

i =1 j =1

ni

- Phng sai gia cc nhm (Mean squares between groups):

MSG = SSG k 1 SSW nk

- Phng sai trong ni b cc nhm (Mean squares within groups):

MSW =

Lc tiu chun kim nh F (Fisher) c tnh bng:

F= MSG MSW

Chng ta c th tm gn cch tnh thng qua bng sau: ANOVA Sum of Squares Between Groups
Within Groups Total
SSG = ( x x i ) 2
i =1 k

df
k-1 n-1

Mean Square
SSG k 1 SSW MSW = nk MSG =
F=

F
MSG MSW

Sig.
P(F)

SSW = ( xij x i ) 2
i =1 j =1

ni

SST = ( x ij x ) 2
i =1 j =1

ni

(SST=SSG+SSW) B5. Min bc b: Vi cho trc, chng ta bc b H0 nu F>Fk-1,n-k, vi k-1 l bc t do ca t s v n-k l bc t do ca mu s. V d: Cng ty A l cng ty chuyn phn phi bt git cho th trng Thnh ph Nng, hin ti cng ty phn phi n khch hng thng qua 4 ca hng 1, 2, 3, 4. a ra nhng quyt nh marketing ph hp, cng ty mun xem xt c s khc nhau trong doanh s bn ca cc ca hng hay khng, s liu thu thp trong mt nm ti cc ca hng c th hin bng sau: VT: triu ng Thng 1 Thng 2 Thng 3 Thng 4 Thng 5 Thng 6 Thng 7 Thng 8 Ca hng s 1 120 123 134 123 132 111 176 192 Ca hng s 2 123 143 132 153 143 164 174 184 Ca hng s 3 112 127 156 176 145 204 275 284 Ca hng s 4 119 134 245 256 364 373 367 283
149

Thng 9 Thng 10 Thng 11 Thng 12 B1. Gi thuyt v i thit:

145 133 126 138

142 165 102 123

195 143 134 127

293 274 246 234

H0: Doanh s bn trung bnh hng thng ca cc ca hng l bng nhau (1=2=3=k) H1 : Tn ti t nht mt ca hng c doanh s bn khc vi t nht mt ca hng cn li. B2. Mc ngha =0,05 B3. Phng php kim nh : Thc hin phng php phn tch phng sai mt chiu. B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh :

- Doanh s trung bnh ca ca hng s 1: 137,75 triu - Doanh s trung bnh ca ca hng s 2: 145,67 triu - Doanh s trung bnh ca ca hng s 3: 173,17 triu - Doanh s trung bnh ca ca hng s 4: 265,67 triu - Doanh s trung bnh ca hng thng ca cng ty l 180,56 triu - Tham s SSG = 124176,56 - Tham s SSW = 121275,25 - Bc t do k-1=3 - Bc t do n-k = 44 - Tham s MSG = 41392,18 - Tham s MSW= 2756,25 - H s Fisher (F) = 15,01
B5. Min bc b v kt lun:

- Ta c Fk-1;n-k; = F 3;47;0,05 = 2,816 - V F = 15,01 > 2,816 nn chng ta bc b H0, chp nhn H1 c ngha l tn ti t nht mt ca hng c doanh s bn khc vi doanh s bn ca t nht mt ca hng cn li.
Hi quy tng quan (mi quan h gia hai hay nhiu bin nh lng) Khi nghin cu mi quan h gia hai hay nhiu bin nh lng, chng ta c th s dng phng php hi quy, trong i c mt bin nguyn nhn (bin c lp) v mt bin kt qu (bin ph thuc). Trong phng php ny ngi ta c th tm ra c mi quan h v mc tc ng ca bin nguyn nhn n bin kt qu nh th no. Gi s chng ta kim tra mi quan h tuyn tnh gia s nm lm vic trong doanh nghip vi thu nhp. Khi , ta c th thy rng bin ph thuc l bin thu nhp (bin Y) v bin c lp l bin s nm lm vic (bin X) iu kin ng dng

- Gi tr ca bin X l hon ton c lp so vi bin Y - Sai s trong m hnh phi tun theo quy lut phn phi chun - Trung bnh cc sai s ca m hnh phi bng khng
150

- Phng sai ca sai s l mt hng s v c lp vi gi tr X

th Trc khi xem xt mi quan h tng quan gia hai bin ny, chng ta cn phi xy dng th gia hai bin s chng ta c th d on hm s thch hp m t mi quan h. Qua th, chng ta c th d on c, c th dng phng trnh ng thng m t mi quan h gia hai bin X, Y. Khi , m hnh hi quy gin n trn tng th c th c biu hin nh sau: Yi = 0 + 1Xi + i Trong : (1) Xi l s nm lm vic ca ngi th i Yi l thu nhp hng nm ca ngi th i 0 gi tr ca m hnh (gi tr ca bin Y) khi gi tr ca bin c lp X bng 0 1 o lng mc thay i ca bin Y khi bin X thay i mt n v
100000

80000

60000

Thu nhap nam (trieu)

40000

20000

0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Nam lam viec

Kim tra s ph hp ca m hnh Phn tch phng - ANOVA (kim tra s tn ti mi quan h trong m hnh) Mt m hnh tuyn tnh c xy dng khi n tn ti mi quan h gia bin c lp v bin ph thuc, phn tch phng sai s cho php kim nh mi quan h tuyn tnh gia hai bin.

- Gi SST l tng bnh phng cc bin ng (gia gi tr thc t v gi tr trung bnh ca bin
y). Khi ta c: SST = ( y i y ) 2
i =1 n

- Gi SSR l tng bnh phng hi quy, l i lng bin ng ca gi tr thc t yi c gii

thch bi gi tr hi quy, SSR = ( y i y ) 2
i =1 n

151

- Gi SSE l tng bnh phng bin ng gia gi tr thc t v gi tr hi quy, khi ta c th

tnh c SSE = ( yi yi ) 2
i =1 n

Khi trung bnh bnh phng hi quy s l MSR =

SSR vi k l s bin (trong trng hp ny k SSE k=1) v trung bnh bnh phng phn d MSE = nk

Gi tr kim nh F =

MSR c phn phi F (Phn phi Fisherr) dng kim nh ngha ca MSE m hnh hi quy, do vy, gi tr F cng ln (hay P(F) cng nh hn ) th m hnh cng c ngha.

H s R2 (s-square) H s R2 dng o lng s ph hp ca m hnh tuyn tnh v n thng gi l h s xc nh (coefficient of determination). H s ny biu hin t l phn trm bin i ca bin y c gii SSR SSE thch bi cc bin x. Khi R 2 = . = 1 SST SST Tuy nhin, R2 ca mu c khuynh hng l c lng lc quan ca thc o s ph hp ca m hnh i vi tng th. Do vy, R2a (gi l R2 iu chnh) c s dng phn nh chnh xc hn s ph hn ca m hnh vi tng th v: k (1 R 2 ) R =R n k 1
2 a 2

Tnh cc h s trong m hnh phng trnh (1) chng ta quan tm ch n hai h s 0 v 1, yu cu ca m hnh hi quy l lm nhu th no tm c cc h s ny, chng ta c th th tnh ton cc gi tr tng ng ca 0 v 1 l b0 v b1 trn mu ng lng ln tng th. t (x1, y1), (x2, y2),..., (xn,yn) l mu gm n cp quan st trn ng hi qui tng th c dng: yi = b0 + b1xi + ei Theo phng php bnh phng b nht, ta c th c lng cc h s 0 v 1 t cc h s b0 v tham s b1 ca mu sao cho tng bnh phng sai s ca phng trnh sau y l b nht:
SSE = ei2 = ( yi b0 b1 xi ) 2
i =1 i =1 n n

Khi cc gi tr b0 v b1 c tnh nh sau: b1 = n x i y i ( x i )( y i )

i =1 i =1 i =1 2 n n n

n x ( xi )
2 i i =1 i =1

b0 = y bi x

Vi

y=

yi
i =1

v x =

x
i =1

n
152

H s hi quy chun ha (standardized regression coefficient) H s hi quy chun ha, k hiu l Beta biu hin dc ca ng thng (tm c theo phng php bnh phng b nht) khi c hai bin X v Y c biu din bng thang o chun ha, n c tnh bng: Beta = 1 sx vi sx v sy l lch chun ca bin X v bin Y. sy

c lng cc tham s ca tng th Phn tch hi quy khng ch m t cc d kin quan sat c m cng cho php suy rng cc kt lun v mi quan h trong mu ln tng th. Suy rng cc kt qu ca mu cho cc gi tr ca tng th da vo cc gi nh sau:

- Vi bt k mt gi tr X no th phn phi chun ca bin Y phi l phn phi chun - Cc gi tr Y c lp i vi nhau tc l quan st ny khng b nh hng bi cc quan st khc. - Tt c cc tr trung bnh y khi X xy ra u nm trn mt ng thng l ng hi quy tng th.
Khi chng ta bit cc gi tr b0 v b1 trn mu, chng ta s suy rng gi tr ny ln tng th cho cc gi tr 0 v 1. Nu t 2e v s2e l phng sai ca sai s ca mu (e) v tng th (), ta c: s e2 =
n

e
i =1

2 i

n2

SSE n 1 se2

Nu t 1 l gi tr c lng ca b1 trn tng th th phng sai ca b1 s l: s =

2 b1

s e2

(x
i =1

=
2

x)

x
i =1

2 i

nx

Khi lch chun ca sai s s l:

sb1 = s =
2 b1

se2

x
i =1

2 i

nx

Suy ra c lng khng chch ca 2b1 s c xc nh:

b2 =
1

s e2

x
i =1

2 i

nx

Gi s t sai s hi quy (ei) tun theo quy lut phn phi chun th bin ngu nhin (t) l gi tr dng kim nh: T= b1 1 sb1
153

Gi l mc ngha th ta lun lun tm c mt khong tin cy ca 1, khi :

n n b1 sb1 t 2 1 b1 + sb1 t 2
2 2

Kim nh cc tham s ca tng th B1. Gi thit v i thit i xng Gi thit i thit H0: H1: 1 = 1o 1 1o H0: H1: Phi 1 1o 1 > 10 H0: H1: Tri 1 1o 1 < 1o

B2. Xc nh mc ngha B3. Phng php kim nh: Kim nh t-student i vi mi quan h gia hai bin. B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh:

k qs T =

b1 10 sb1

B5. Min bc b v kt lun: Gi thit H0 c bc b khi:

n T t 1 (kim nh i xng)
2
n T t 1 (kim nh pha phi)

n T < t 1 (kim nh pha tri)

D on gi tr Khi chng ta c cc h s b0 v b1, chng ta c th thnh lp c m hnh, thay cc gi tr xn+1 vo th ta c th tnh c gi tr d on ca m hnh. yi = b0 + b1xi + ei Vi mi gi tr ca xi chng ta s tm c cc gi tr d on ca yi tng ng lun ny trong 2 khong Y s y t n , vi sai ca da on s l:
1 2

s y = se

1 ( x n +1 x) 2 + 2 n (n 1) s x

KIM NH CHI BNH PHNG V TNH PH THUC HAY C LP CA CC BIN Kim nh gi thit v quy lut phn phi ca tng th Kim nh gi thit v s phn phi ca tng th hay c th gi l kim nh s ph hp l kim nh nhm xem xt d liu thu thp c ph hp (thch hp) n mc no vi gi nh v phn phi ca tng th.
154

Gi s c mu ngu nhin n quan st c chia thnh k nhm khc nhau, mi quan st phi v ch thuc v mt nhm th i no (i=1,2,,k). Khi Oi l s lng quan st nhm th i, vn t ra l ta s dng mu quan st ny kim nh gi thit H0 th hin cc xc sut pi mt quan st no thuc v nhm th i. Chng ta cn tnh: Tnh s lng quan st thuc v nhm th i trong trng hp gi thit H0 ng, ngha l tnh cc gi tr mong mun Ei theo cng thc: Ei =n*pi Nhm GT thc t (Oi) XS theo H0 Gi tr mong mun (Ei) 1 O1 p1 E1 2 O2 p2 E2 k Ok pk Ek n 1 n

2 df = i =1

(Oi Ei ) 2 Ei

Tiu chun kim nh: Trong : Oi Ei k pi : tn s quan st c trong thc t : tn s theo l thuyt : s loi tnh cht hay s khong dng phn loi tnh cht : thng s c c nh t s liu thu thp c. KIM NH CHI BNH PHNG (kim nh v s phn phi tng th) 1. Gi thit v i thit: Gi thit .l bng nhau i thit l khc nhau 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim Chi bnh phng. k (O E )2 4. Tnh tiu chun: 2 = i i Ei i=1 5. im ti hn v min bc b: L kim nh mt ui (df=k-1) vi: im ti hn 2df; Min bc b 2 > 2df; M hnh BB 2df;

df = k-1: mc t do trong php kim nh.

155

V d 1: Trong mt t ra thi trc nghim mn Kinh t vi m, ngi ta tin tng rng 60% sinh vin tham gia thi s t im u trn bi thi trc nghim ny vi tin cy 95%. Chn mt cch ngu nhin 200 sinh vin tham gia thi v tin hnh iu tra. Kt qu thu c c 105 sinh vin t v 95 sinh vin khng t. Hi kt qu ny c tri vi kt qu mong i hay khng ? Gii: Gi p l t l sinh vin t im u, khi 1-p l t l sinh vin khng t B1. Gi thit v i thit H0: p=0,6 H1: H0 khng ng hay p0,6 Ch tiu t Khng t L thuyt 0,6*200 = 120 0,4*200 = 80 Thc t 105 95

B3. Chn phng php kim nh =0,05. B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh s ph hp Chi bnh phng. V

(2df ); = (21 ); 0 , 05 = 3 ,843

df= k-1= 2-1= 1 nn vi tin cy 95% ta c B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh
2 df =

(105 120 ) 2 ( 95 80 ) 2 + = 1,88 + 2 ,81 = 4 , 69 120 80

BB

Minh ha bng hnh v

3,843

4,69

Kt lun: V 4,69 > 3,843 nn bc b H0 mc ngha 0,05 v kt qu thi tri vi tin tng ca nh son cu hi. V d 2: chn mt b th on cho mt trng i hc ngi ta c 3 ng vin v chng ta phi kim tra xem t l cc on vin b phiu cho mi ng vin c khc nhau hay khng. Mt mu 150 c tri hp l c chn ngu nhin t danh sch ca trng i hc y. Kt qu kim phiu thu c nh sau: - ng vin 1: - ng vin 2: - ng vin 1: Gii: Gi p1, p2 ,p3 ln lt l t l phiu bu ca cc on vin cho ln lt cc ng vin. B1. Pht biu gi thit v i thit Gi thit H0: p1= p2 =p3 =1/3 i thit H1: t nht mt trong cc t l nh hn 1/3
156

61 53 36

B2. Mc ngha =0,05 B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh s ph hp Chi bnh phng. V

2 , = 2,0,05 = 5,9914 df 2 df= k-1= 3-1= 2 nn vi tin cy 95% ta c

B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh: Nu gi thit H0 ng th s c tri theo l thuyt bu cho cc ng vin u l 50. Khi : B5. Kt lun: V 6,52>5,9914 nn chng ta c th bc b H0 tc l cc an vin b phiu
(61 50 ) 2 (53 50 ) 2 (36 50 ) 2 + + = 6,52 50 50 50 cho mt ng vin nhiu hn t nht mt ng vin cn li.

2 =

Kim nh chi bnh phng v tnh cht c lp hay ph thuc (kim nh hng ct hay kim nh mi quan h gia hai bin biu danh) trn ta xem xt trng hp d liu thu thp c xp theo mt tiu ch hay mt yu t. By gi chng ta xem xt trng hp d liu c xp theo hai tiu ch, ngha l c phn theo hai yu t c mi lin h hay khng. V d, trong phn tch nghin cu tip th, chng ta thng tm c tn ti hay khng mi lin h gia gii tnh v hnh vi tiu dng, gia gii tnh v mc hon thnh cng vic, gia tui tc v gii tnh.. Gi Oij l s lng quan st ng vi hng th i v ct th j v Eij l s l thuyt ng vi hng th i v ct th j, khi ta c:
E ij = E ij = (Tng hang i) x(Tng ct j) Tng ln cua mu ri * c j

n Khi t do s l df= (s ct -1)*(s hng-1)

KIM NH CHI BNH PHNG (Kim nh mi lin h) 1. Gi thit v i thit: Gi thit Khng c mi lin h gia hai bin .... trong tng th i thit C mi lin h gia hai bin ..... trong tng th 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim Chi bnh phng. 4. Tnh tiu chun:

=
2

(Oij

Eij ) 2

5. im ti hn v min bc b: L kim nh mt ui (df=(r-1)*(c-1)) vi: im ti hn Min bc b

i =1 j =1

Eij
2df; 2 > 2df;
BB
2df;

M hnh

157

V d 1: Mt nh nghin cu th trng mun xc nh mi tng quan c th c gia kch c xe t v hng sn xut i vi cc xe mi c mua trong thi gian gn y. Mt mu 1000 xe mi mua trong nc chn ngu nhin v phn loi theo kch c v hng sn xut. D liu thu c: Loi xe Nh Trung bnh Ln Tng hng i (ri) Loi xe A Nh Trung bnh Ln Tng hng i (ri) 157 (140,833) 126 (135,036) 58 (65,131) 341 A 157 126 58 341 Hng ch to B C 181 65 142 82 60 45 192 383 Hng ch to B C 181 65 (79,296) (158,179) 142 82 (76,032) (151,668) 60 45 (73,153) (36,672) 192 383 D 10 46 28 84 Tng ct j (cj) 413 396 191 1000 Tng ct j (cj) 413 396 191 1000

Nh vy cc gi tr thc t quan st c v gi tr l thuyt nh sau: D 10 (34,692) 46 (33,264) 28 (16,044) 84

Chng ta dng php kim nh chi bnh phng so snh gi tr qua st c v gi tr l thuyt vi cc bc sau: B1. Pht biu gi thit v i thit Gi thit H0: Hai yu t dng phn loi c lp nhau trong tng th i thit H1: Hai yu t dng phn loi ph thuc nhau trong tng th B2. Xc nh mc ngha =0,05. B3. Phng php kim nh: Phng php kim nh Chi bnh phng v mi quan h gia hai bin.
2 =

(O
ij

ij

E ij ) 2 = 45 ,81

E ij

B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh B5. Kt lun : V df= (r-1)*(c-1)=(3-1)*(4-1)=6 nn

(26 ); 0 ,05 = 12 ,5916
2 = 45 ,81 > (26 ); 0 , 05 = 12 ,5916

Vy ta bc b gi thit H0 tc l kch c xe v hng sn xut xe do khch hng chn la l nhng nhng bin ph thuc ln nhau ch khng phi c lp.

158

CC PHNG PHP KIM NH PHI THAM S Kim nh phim tham s l cc loi kim nh t i hi cc gi thit v phn phi ca d kinn. Thng thng, kim nh ph tham s ph hp nht trong cc trng hp chng ta khng th dng cc kim nh tham s v d d liu m chng ta thu thp l loi d liu nh tnh (biu danh hay th t) hoc khi cc d liu thuc thang o lng khong cch (interval) nhng khi kim nh phn phi chun khng tha. Trong nhng trng hp nh vy, chng ta thng s dng phng php kim nh phi tham s. Trong phn ny s cp n nhng kim nh sau: Kim nh hai mu ph thuc (Du, Wilcoxon, Nemar) phn kim nh tham s ta cp n vic so snh trung bnh ca hai tng th vi gii nh tng th phn phi chun v c phng sai bng nhau. Khi cc iu kin ny khng tha mn ta thc hin kim nh du. ng dng: D liu mu tng cp phi hp, tng th khng phn phi chun v c th phng sai khc nhau. Vic kim nh du thng c dng khi phn tch d liu t mu phi hp. Tuy nhin, ngi ta t dng kim nh du do ni khng lm sng t c gi tr ca khc bit, kt qu khng thuyt phc lm nn ngi ta thng thc hin kim nh Wilcoxon. Trng hp mu nh (n<30) Cch thc thc hin kim nh Wilcoxon trong trng hp mu nh nh sau: KIM NH WILCOXON (mu nh) 1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Phi Gi thit 1 = 2 H0: 1 2 H0: i thit 1 2 H1: 1 > 2 H1: 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim Wilcoxon - Phn phi Wilcoxon. 4. Tnh tiu chun: D = x1 - x2 (xt du) Tiu chun W = min [(-)] W = min [(+), (-)] 5. im ti hn v min bc b: i xng Phi im ti hn W W2 Min bc b W < W2 W < W M hnh BB BB
W2 W

H0: H1:

Tri 1 2 1 < 2

W = min [(+)] Tri W W < W

BB W

B1. Tnh cc chnh lch B2. Chn mc ngha

D=x1 - x2

B3. Phng php kim nh : Phng php kim nh Wilcoxon B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh :

- Xp hng gi tr tuyt i cc chnh lch D theo th t tng dn, cc gi tr bng nhau s nhn hng trung bnh (b qua cc trng hp chnh lch bng 0).
159

- Tnh tng cng hng. Gi tr W ca kim nh l: W= min [(+), (-)]

B5. Tham chiu vi gi tr bng Wilconxon trong bng phn phi, so snh vi gi tr kim nh a ra kt lun. V d: Mu 9 khch hng c chn ngu nhin v yu cu h cho bit s thch ca h v hai loi kem nh rng A, B khc nhau thng qua mt thang im t 1 (rt khng thch) n 5 (rt thch). Kt qu nh sau: KH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Kem A 4 5 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 Kem B 3 5 5 2 5 5 3 5 5 Ch. lch 1 0 -3 1 -2 -4 0 -3 -3 Hng TQ 1,5 5 1,5 3 7 5 5 3 Hng (+) 1,5 Hng (-)

5 1,5 3 7 5 5 25

nh gi xem c hay khng mc a chung gia hai loi kem nh rng A, B vi mc ngha 5%. B1. Gi thit v i thit: H0: Khng c s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B trong tng th H1: C s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B trong tng th B2. La chn mc ngha =0,05 B3. Xc nh phng php kim nh : Phng php kim nh Wilcoxon B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh: y l loi kim nh dng hai ui (i xng). Theo bng tnh ta c: Kqs = W = min [3,25]=3 Tra bng phn phi ca kim nh Wilcoxon vi mc ngha 5% ta c W2 =W2*0,05=W0,1= 4
Min bc b W=3 W2=4

V W<W2 nn ta cha c c s bc b H0 tc l cha c c s chng minh c s khc bit trong a chung ca ngi tiu dng gia sn phm A, B trong tng th Trng hp mu ln (n30) Trong trng hp mu ln, dng phn phi chun thay th cho phn phi ca kim nh Wilcoxon. Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai ca hai mu c tnh:
T =
2 T

n ( n + 1) 4 n ( n + 1 )( 2 n + 1 ) = 24

160

KIM NH WILCOXON (mu ln) 1. Gi thit v i thit: i xng Phi Tri Gi thit H0: 1 = 2 H0: 1 2 H0: 1 2 i thit 1 2 H1: 1 > 2 H1: 1 < 2 H1: 2. Xc nh mc ngha 3. Phng php kim nghim Wilcoxon Tham chiu phn phi chun. 4. Tnh tiu chun: T T k qs Z = T 5. im ti hn v min bc b: i xng Phi Tri im ti hn U1-/2 U1- U1- Min bc b Z < -U1- Z <U1- Z <U1-/2 M hnh BB BB
BB U1-/2 -U1- U1-

V d: Cng ty sn xut du gi u nhn hiu P thc hin mt chin dch qung co rm r trong mc tiu xm nhp th trng mt thnh ph. kim tra xem chin dch qung co ny c to ra c nhn bit v nhn hiu ni khch hng hay khng, trc v sau khi thc hin chin dch qung co, mu 200 ngi mi a bn trong 50 a bn dn c (phng, x) ca thnh ph c chn v yu cu k tn 5 loi du gi u. tng a bn, trc v sau khi thc hin chin dch qung co, s ln du gi u nhn hiu P c k tn c ghi nhn li. Chnh lch v s ln du gi u nhn hiu P c k tn gia trc v sau khi qung co c tnh ton, xp hng theo gi tr tuyt i ca chng (khng c chnh lch 0). Tng cng hng ca cc chnh lch dng c gi tr nh hn v bng 625. Thc hin kim nh Wilcoxon, ta s xem xt xem sau chin dch qung co, du gi u nhn hiu P c c khch hng bit n nhiu hn trc hay khng vi mc ngha 5%? Gii: B1. Gi thit v i thit H0: S nhn bit nhn hiu du gi u P trc v sau chin dch qung co l ging nhau H1: Sau chin dch qung co, du gi u nhn hiu P c khch hng bit n nhiu hn B2. La chn mc ngha =0,05 B3. La chn phng php kim nh : Kim nh Wilcoxon vi tham chiu l tham chiu phn phi chun (Z) v n=50>30 B4. Tnh tiu chun kim nh Vi mu n=50 ta c:

161

T =
T2 =

n ( n + 1) 50 ( 49 ) = = 673,5 4 4
n ( n + 1)( 2 n + 1) 50 * 51 * 101 = = 10731 , 25 24 24
T T 625 637 ,5 = 0,1206 103 ,5917

p dung cng thc:

T Ta c Z=-0,1206 < U0,95= 1,65 nn chng ta cha c c s bc b gi thit H0 tc l cha c c s chp nhn H1
Z = =

Kim nh nhiu hn hai mu ph thuc (Friedman, Kendalls W, Cochrans Q) Thang o lng v phng thc thc hin tng t nh Wilcoxon nh m rng cho nhiu hn 2 sn phm, tnh hung v kt qu c trnh by phn hng dn SPSS Kim nh cho hai mu c lp (Mann-Whitney U) Kim nh khng yu cu cc gi nh v hnh dng ca phn phi, n c dng cc gi thit v hai mu c lp c xut pht t hai tng th c phn phi c th khng ging nhau. Kim nh ny gn ging nh kim nh wilconxon v cc bin phi c th xp hng (trong kim nh wilcoxon ta phi xt c du v hng cn trong kim nh Mann-Whitney U ta ch xt th hng m khng cn xt du. Tnh hung v kt qu c m t phn SPSS. Kim nh nhiu hn hai mu c lp (Kruskal-Wallis H) Gi s rng chng ta c cc mu ngu nhin c lp gm k quan st, nu ta sp xp cc quan st ny thnh tng nhm m mi nhm c phn phi tun theo quy lut phn phi chun v phng sai ca chng bng nhau th chng ta c th dng phng php kim nh tham s (ANOVA) phn tch. Tuy nhin, c mt s trng hp, mu khng thoi mn nhng iu kin s dng ANOVA th chng ta s dng phng php kim nh phi tham s vi phng php Kruskal-Wallis. T tng th n quan st ta sp xp cc hng mt cch lin tc t nh n ln, nu gi tr quan st trng nhau th hng xp ging nhau bng cch dng s trung bnh cng cc hng ca chng. Gi R1, R2,..., Rk l tng ca cc hng c xp theo th t, khi t n quan st ta c ca k nhm. B1. Gi thit v i thit H0: 1 = 2 = ... = k: Tham s trung bnh ca k nhm u bng nhau H1: Tn ti t nht mt tham s trung bnh ca nhm i khc vi t nht mt tham s trung bnh ca nhm cn li. B2. Xc nh mc ngha B3. Phng php kim nh Kruskal- Wallis B4. Tiu chun kim nh W c tnh bng
k Ri2 12 k qs W = 3(n + 1) n(n + 1) i =1 ni

B5. Min bc b v kt lun :

162

Trong trng hp ny chng ta dng phn phi Chi bnh phng vi bc t do l k-1, khi 2 chng ta s bc b H0 nu W > k 1, . X L D LIU CNG SPSS KIM NH THAM S Kim nh t i vi tham s trung bnh mu Nh chng ta bit, thu nhp trung bnh ca cc i tng phng vn l 33,224 triu/nm, c gi thit cho rng thu nhp ca i tng m chng ta phng vn trn tng th l 32 triu/nm, chng ta cn kt lun nhn nh c ng khng. Khi , gi thit ca bi ton l: H0 : = 0= 32 (triu) v H1: 0 = 32 (triu) Nhn Analyze Compare Means One sample T test. Chn bin cn phn tch vo Test Variable(s), t gi tr 0 vo Test Value.

Nhn Option thit t tin cy (gi s tin cy l 95%)

Bm Continue v bm OK hp hi thoi ban u, kt qu thu c nh sau:

Descriptive Statistics N Thu nhap nam (trieu) Valid N (listwise) 200 200 Minimum 10750 Maximum 82500 Mean 33224.00 Std. Deviation 12932.72

One-Sample Statistics N Thu nhap nam (trieu) 200 Mean 33224.00 Std. Deviation 12932.72 Std. Error Mean 914.48

163

One-Sample Test Test Value = 32000 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Mean Lower Upper Difference 1224.00 -579.32 3027.32

Thu nhap nam (trieu)

t 1.34

df 199

Sig. (2-tailed) .182

Gi tr t-student = 1,34

Gi tr p-value =0,182>0,05

Ti cc biu trn, ta c th bit gi tr trung bnh, lch chun ca mu. Ngoi ra t=1,34 nn p-value=0,182>0,05 nn chng ta cha c c s bc b H0 hay cha c c s chp nhn H1. Kim nh tham s trung bnh hai mu (hai mu c lp) Gi s ta mun so snh thu nhp trung bnh gia nhng ngi c gii tnh nam v n trn tng th c khc nhau hay khng, ta c gi thit: H0: Thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi nam v ngi n bng nhau trn tng th H1: Thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi nam v ngi n khng bng nhau trn tng th Nhn Analyze Compare Means Independent sample t-test. Chn bin thunhap vo Test Variables v bin gioitinh vo Grouping Variable

Nhn vo Define Groups nh ngha cc nhm vi Nam=1 v N = 0

Nhn vo Define Groups nh ngha cc nhm vi Nam=1 v N = 0

Kt qu nh sau
164

Group Statistics Thu nhap nam (trieu) Gioi tinh Nam Nu N 124 76 Mean 37053.23 26976.32 Std. Deviation 13962.42 7763.42 Std. Error Mean 1253.86 890.52

Trung bnh ngi c gii tnh l N

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances Sig. (2-ta iled) .000 .000

Trung bnh ngi c gii tnh l Nam

t-test for Equality of Means 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper 6630 7044 13524 13110

F Thu nhap nam (trieu) Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed 17

Sig. .000

t 5.77 6.55

df 198 196.4

Mean Difference 10076.91 10076.91

Std. Error Difference 1747.75 1537.92

Nu sig. trong kim nh phng sai<0,05 th phng sai gia hai mu khng bng nhau, ta s dng kt qu kim nh t dng th 2

Gi tr t ca kim nh

p-value ca gi tr t

Kim nh Leneves (gi thit H0: phng sai ca hai mu (bin) bng nhau, H1: phng sai ca hai mu (bin) khng bng nhau) s cho php kim nh phng sai hai mu c bng nhau hay khng, trong trng hp ny nu sig. ca F (trong thng k Leneves) < 0,05 ta bc b H0, chp nhn H1 ngha l phng sai ca hai mu khng bng nhau, do vy gi tr t m ta phi tham chiu l gi tr t dng th 2. Ngc li nu sig. >0,05 th phng sai ca hai mu bng nhau, ta s dng kt qu kim nh t dng th nht. i vi kim nh t, ta nhn thy rng t=6,55 v p-value = 0,000<0,05 nm ta c th bc b H0 v chp nhn H1, c ngha l thu nhp trung bnh gia ngi nam v n s khc nhau. Kim nh tham s trung bnh hai mu (hai mu ph thuc) Nhn Analyze Compare Means Paired sample t-test. Chn bin cn phn tch vo Paired Variables.

Nhn Option thit t tin cy (gi s tin cy l 95%)

165

Kt qu:
Paired Samples Statistics Pair 1 TRUOCQC SAUQC Mean 42.9333 44.1333 N 15 15 Std. Deviation 30.6419 28.1422 Std. Error Mean 7.9117 7.2663

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences Std. Error Mean 1.4935 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper -4.4032 2.0032

Pair 1

TRUOCQC - SAUQC

Mean -1.200

Std. Deviation 5.7842

t -.803

df 14

Sig. (2-tailed) .435

Gi tr c lng (gii hn di)

Gi tr c lng (gii hn trn)

Gi tr t-student = -0,803

Gi tr p-value =0,435>0,05

V gi tr t=-0,803 v p-value = 0,435>0,05 nn chng ta cha c c s bc b H0 tc l cha c c s chp nhn H1. Phn tch phng sai (Analysis of variance ANOVA) Gi s chng ta mun so snh thu nhp trung bnh ca cc i tng lm trong nhng lnh vc dch v - thng mi, xy dng v cng nghip c khc nhau hay khng. Gi thit v i thit s l: H0: Thu nhp trung bnh ca nhng ngi lm trong lnh vc dch v - thng mi, xy dng v cng nghip bng nhau H1: Thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi lm trong lnh vc dch v - thng mi, xy dng v cng nghip khng bng nhau (c ngha l tn ti t nht mt thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngnh khc vi t nht mt thu nhp trung bnh ca hai ngnh cn li) Nhn Analyze Compare Means One-way ANOVA. Chn bin cn phn tch (nh lng) vo Dependent List v bin phn loi vo Factor

166

Nhn Post Hoc chn loi kim nh nhm xc nh c th s khc bit gia cc nhm (nhm no khc vi nhm no). Chng ta c th chn Bonferroni hoc Tukeys-b (hai thng k ny u cho ra cng mt kt qu). Nu phng sai gia cc nhm cn so snh khng bng nhau, chng ta chn Tamhanes T2 (ng dng cho kim nh t tng cp nu phng sai ca chng khng bng nhau).

Nhn Continue, nhn Option thit t cc la chn.

Trong Homogeneity-of-variance kim nh s bng nhau phng sai cc nhm, Means plot lm cho hnh minh ha.
Test of Homogeneity of Variances Thu nhap nam (trieu) Levene Statistic .414 df1 2 df2 197 Sig. .661

V Sig. >0,05 nn ta c th khng nh l phng sai ca cc nhm l bng nhau, tha mn iu kin ca phn tch ANOVA.

167

ANOVA Thu nhap nam (trieu) Between Groups Within Groups Total Sum of Squares 87185676.623 33196619123.377 33283804800.000 df 2 197 199 Mean Square 43592838.312 168510756.971 F .259 Sig. .772

Vi F=0,259 v p-value = 0,772>0,05 nn cha c c s bc b H0 hay cha c c s chp nhp H1 Trong cc trng hp khc, nu ta bc b H0 v chp nhn H1, vi thng k Bonferonni ta c th bit c s khc nhau tng cp ca cc tham s trung bnh. Means plots
35000

34000

Mean of Thu nhap nam (trieu)

33000

32000 Dich vu thuong mai Xay dung Cong nghiep

Loai hinh doanh nghiep

Hi quy tuyn tnh Gi s chng ta mong mun tm mi tng quan gia hai bin nm lm vic (bin c lp) v thu nhp hng nm (bin ph thuc) trn tng th, chng ta s thc hin nh th no. V s , kim tra bng th gic mi quan h Vo Graphs, nhn Scatter

168

Chn Simple v bm Define

Chn cc bin vo Y Axis (bin ph thuc) v X Axis (bin c lp), bm OK

100000

80000

60000

Thu nhap nam (trieu)

40000

20000

0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Nam lam viec

Chng ta c th xem ng hi quy l thuyt ca dy d liu bng cch click hai ln vo chut. Sau khi mt mn hnh mi hin ra, vo Chart Option, hi hi thoi tip theo s hin ra Bm OK Hi hi thoi s l:

169

Bm Fit Options chn Linear regression

Bm Continue v OK
100000

80000

60000

Thu nhap nam (trieu)

40000

20000

0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Nam lam viec

170

R rng trn hnh v bn, ta c th hnh dung c mi quan h tuyn tnh (theo ng thng) gia s nm lm vic v thu nhp/nm. kim tra mt cch chnh xc, ta thc hin thao tc hi quy. Vo Analyze v Regression chn cc bin vo cc tng ng

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 449.294 1250.926 1700.220 df 1 198 199 Mean Square 449.294 6.318 F 71.115 Sig. .000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Thu nhap nam (trieu) b. Dependent Variable: Nam lam viec

V F=71,115 v p-value=0,000 nn chng ta c th khng nh tn to m hnh hay tn ti mi quan h gia hai bin nm lm vic v thu nhp trn tng th.
Model Summary Model 1 R .514a R Square .264 Adjusted R Square .261 Std. Error of the Estimate 2.51

a. Predictors: (Constant), Thu nhap nam (trieu)

Ta c R2 = 0,264 c ngha l bin s nm lm vic s gii thch 26,4% thu nhp/ nm ca nhn vin (cn li l nhng bin s khc). Ta c R2a =0,261, ta c th kt lun mi quah h gia hai bin ny rt yu v R2a =0,261<0,3. Ch : Nu Nu R2a 0,3 <= R2a <0,3 <0,5 Mi quan h yu Mi quan h trung bnh (chp nhn)
171

Nu Nu

0,5 <= R2a 1 <= R

2 a

<0,7

Mi quan h kh cht ch Mi quan h rt cht ch

Coefficientsa

Model 1

(Constant) Thu nhap nam (trieu)

Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 9.970 .491 1.162E-04 .000

Standardized Coefficients Beta .514

t 20.304 8.433

Sig. .000 .000

a. Dependent Variable: Nam lam viec

Bng coefficient cho php chng ta kim nh cc h s gc trong m hnh, ta c t1 = 8,433 v pvalue = 0,000<0,05 nn ta khng nh tn ti mi quan h gia hai bin vi h s gc b1=0,00011 c ngha l khi tng mi nm lm vic, thu nhp hng nm tang 110 ngn ng. Ta c th thnh lp c phng trnh hi quy nh sau: yi = 9.870 + 0,00011xi + e KIM NH CHI BNH PHNG V TNH C LP HAY PH THUC GIA HAI BIN (CROSSTABS) Kim nh phn phi (kim nh s ph hp) Tnh hung: Trong mt nghin cu c tnh ca b Y t, ngi ta mong mun kim tra gi thuyt rng tn sut s dng dch v bnh vin ca cc ngy trong tun l nh nhau v gim 25% vo cui tun. Mt mu gm 52 000 bnh nhn c phn phi sau: Ngy Th hai Th ba Th t Th nm Th su Th by Ch nht Khi , gi thit v i thit: H0: Nhu cu khm cha bnh l nh nhau tt c cc ngy trong tun v gim 25% vo cui tun H1: Nhu cu ny c mt dng phn phi khc S bnh nhn (quan st) 8623 8308 8420 9032 8754 4361 4502 52000 S bnh nhn (l thuyt) 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 6000 6000 52000

172

Kim nh chi bnh phng v tnh cht c lp hay ph thuc (kim nh hng ct hay kim nh mi quan h gia hai bin biu danh) Ngi ta dng kim nh Chi bnh phng kim nh s kt hp gia bai bin (biu danh hoc th t). C mt s ch nh sau:

- 2 c thit lp xc nh c hay khng mt mi lin h gia hai bin, nhng n khng ch ra c cng ca mi lin h . Trong trng hp ny, cn s dng cc o lng kt hp. - 2 cho php tm ra nhng mi lin h phi tuyn tnh gia hai bin. - Vi kim nh Chi bnh phng, ta thnh lp c cc bng cho. H s V Cramer c p dng cho tt c cc loi bng cho vi k l chiu b nht ca bng cho. Cng ca n bin ng t 0 n 1. 2
V= n(k 1)

Gi s ta chn phn tch tnh c lp gia hai bin nh tnh quy m doanh nghip (quymo) v loi hnh kinh doanh (loaihinh). Cc bc tin hnh nh sau: H0: Hai bin quy m doanh nghip v loi hnh doanh kinh c lp vi nhau trn tng th H1: Hai bin quy m doanh nghip v loi hnh doanh kinh ph thuc vi nhau trn tng th Vo Descriptives statistics Crosstab chn cc bin vo cc tng ng
173

Bm Statistics thit lp cc thng k

Gi tr kim nh Chi bnh phng

Gi tr kim nh p-value

Bm Cells thit lp cc t l phn trm theo dng, ct hay tng cng

Chi-Square Tests Pearson Chi-Square Likelihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear Association N of Valid Cases Value 38.665a 50.910 36.280 104 df 2 2 1 Asymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .000 .000

a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 12.92.

174

Loai hinh doanh nghiep * Quy mo doanh nghiep Crosstabulation Quy mo doanh nghiep vua va nho lon 11 26 22.1 14.9 10.6% 25.0% 16 16 19.1 12.9 15.4% 15.4% 35 0 20.9 14.1 33.7% .0% 62 42 62.0 42.0 59.6% 40.4%

Total 37 37.0 35.6% 32 32.0 30.8% 35 35.0 33.7% 104 104.0 100.0%

Loai hinh doanh nghiep

Dich vu thuong mai

Xay dung

Cong nghiep

Total

Count Expected Count % of Total Count Expected Count % of Total Count Expected Count % of Total Count Expected Count % of Total

Symmetric Measures Value Nominal by Nominal N of Valid Cases

a. Not assuming the null hypothesis. b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

Approx. Sig. .610 .610 104 .000 .000

Phi Cramer's V

Trong kim ny, ta thy gi tr Chi bnh phng = 38,665 v p-value=0,000<0,05 nn ta bc b H0 v chp nhn H1 tc hai bin ph thuc ln nhau trn tng th. H s Phi = 0,61 khng nh mi quan h gia hai bin ny kh cht ch. KIM NH PHI THAM S Kim nh hai mu ph thuc (Wilcoxon, kim nh du, kim nh Nemar) Vi v d v nh gi hai loi kem trn, ta cgi thit: Vi gi thit v i thit l: H0: Khng c s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B trong tng th H1: C s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B trong tng th Cc bc thc hin nh sau: Vo Analyze Nonparametric Tests - 2 Related Samples

175

Kt qu thu c:
Ranks N B-A Negative Ranks Positive Ranks Ties Total 2a 5b 2c 9 Mean Rank 1.50 5.00 Sum of Ranks 3.00 25.00

a. B < A b. B > A c. A = B

Test Statistics Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) a. Based on negative ranks. b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test

B-A -1.876a .061

Nhn vo bng trn ta c th d dng din gii d liu, vi Z = -1,876 v p-value=0,61>0,05 nn ta cha c c s bc b H0 tc cha c c s chp nhn H1 hay cha c c s khng nh c s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B trong tng th. Ch : Kim n du v Nemar c th thc hin tng t Kim nh nhiu hn hai mu ph thuc (Friedman, Kendalls W, Cochrans Q) Trong trng hp ging nh v d trng hp kim nh wilcoxon, nhung by gi ta c 3 sn phm A, B, C, khi KH 1 2 3 4 Kem A 4 5 2 3 Kem B 3 5 5 2 Kem C 5 5 5 5
176

5 6 7 8 9

3 1 3 2 2

5 5 3 5 5

5 5 5 5 5

Vo Analyze Nonparametric Test K Related Samples chn cc bin vo phn tch

Kt qu:
Ranks Mean Rank A B C 1.39 2.00 2.61

Test Statistics N Chi-Square df Asymp. Sig. a. Friedman Test

9 9.308 2 .010

Vi Chi bnh phng = 9,308 v p-value=0,01<0,05 nn ta bc b H0 tc chp nhn H1 hay c s khc bit trong mc a chung gia A, B, C trong tng th. Kim nh cho hai mu c lp (Mann-Whitney U) Tnh hung: C hai loi my n Toshiba v Yamaha ang tiu th ti Vit Nam, mt nh phn phi mun kim tra mc tiu hao nguyn vt liu ca hai loi sn phm ny. Nh phn phi gp cc khch hng s dng hai loi sn phm, tin hnh iu tra mc tiu hao nguyn vt liu, tng s khch hng iu tra l 18 ngi trong 10 ngi s dng sn phm Toshiba v 10 ngi s dng sn phm Yamaha, kt qu thu c nh sau:

177

KH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Toshiba 4000 3800 4600 4300 5000 5300 4900 4700 4000 5200

Yamaha 4200 4300 3400 3500 3800 4200 4300 3400

Vo Analyze Nonparametric Test 2 Independent Samples chn cc bin vo phn tch

Nhn Grouping Define nh ngha cc bin

Kt qu nh sau
Ranks TIEUHAO NHANHIEU Toshiba Yamaha Total N 10 8 18 Mean Rank 12.15 6.19 Sum of Ranks 121.50 49.50

178

Test Statistics b TIEUHAO Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) Exact Sig. [2*(1-tailed Sig.)] a. Not corrected for ties. b. Grouping Variable: NHANHIEU 13.500 49.500 -2.364 .018 .016a

Ta thy gi tr Mann-Whitney U = 13,5, gi tr Z = -2,363 v p-value=0,18 nn ta bc b H0, chp nhn H1 tc l c s khc nhau v mc tiu hao nhin liu trung bnh ca hai loi sn phm l khc nhau. Kim nh nhiu hn hai mu c lp (Kruskal-Wallis H) Gi s nh chng ta c 3 nhm sn phm (thm mt sn phm ca hng Sonix), cch thc thc hin nh sau: Vo Analyze Nonparametric Test K Independent Samples chn cc bin vo phn tch

Vo Grouping Variable nh ngha bin, hin ti chng ta c 3 bin, chng ta t gi tr maximum l 3, nu chng ta so snh 2 bin th chng ta nh s 2 (gi tr 1, 2, hay 3 ph thuc vo cc nh ngha value label ca bin nhanhieu.

179

Ranks TIEUHAO NHANHIEU Toshiba Yamaha 3 Total N 10 8 8 26 Mean Rank 18.55 9.63 11.06

Test Statistics Chi-Square df Asymp. Sig. a. Kruskal Wallis Test b. Grouping Variable: NHANHIEU

a,b

TIEUHAO 7.318 2 .026

Ta thy gi tr Chi bnh phng = 7,318 v p-value=0,026 nn ta bc b H0, chp nhn H1 tc l c s khc nhau v mc tiu hao nhin liu trung bnh ca ba loi sn phm l khc nhau. TM TT Trong nghin cu marketing, phn tch d liu lun bao hm kim nh gi thuyt. thc hin mt kim nh ngi ta phi trnh by hai gi thuyt l gi thuyt khng ( thng k hiu H0) gi thuyt cn kim nh; v gi thuyt i ( thng k hiu H1) - gi thuyt thay th cho gi thuyt khng khi gi thuyt H0 b bc b th chp nhn gi thuyt i H1 ny. Cc k thut thng k cho php chng ta i n quyt nh l cc gi thuyt c c kim chng bng s liu thc t hay khng. Khi da vo mu kim nh gi thuyt c th mc hai loi sai lm. sai lm loi mt l sai lm khi chng ta bc b mt gi thuyt ng. Sai lm loi hai l sai lm khi chng ta tha nhn mt gi thuyt sai. Thc hin mt bi ton kim nh bao gm cc bc: pht biu gi thuyt khng gi thuyt i; xc nh mc ngha; la chn phng php kim nh; tnh gi tr kim nh; xc nh min bc b; a ra kt lun. Th tc kim nh gi thuyt c th c sp xp theo hai loi ch yu: kim nh tham s v kim nh phi tham s- tu thuc vo thang o lng ca bin lin quan. Cc kim nh tham s i s dng cc thang o lng l khong hoc t l, trong khi cc kim nh phi tham s ph hp vi cc thang o lng l nh danh v th t. Kim nh tham s c nghin cu bao gm kim nh tham s trung bnh ca tng th, kim nh tham s t l, kim nh s khc nhau gia hai trung bnh hai tng th, kim nh s khc nhau trung bnh ca nhiu tng th v hi quy tng quan. Kim nh phi tham s chng ta s nghin cu l kim nh v quy lut phn phi ca tng th, kim nh v tnh c lp hay ph thuc, kim nh du, kim nh Wilcoxon, kim nh Mann-Whitney... Cc th tc kim nh u d dng v n gin nh vo s tr gip ca phn mm SPSS.
180

CU HI N TP 1. 2. 3. 4. Th no l gi thuyt khng? Gi thuyt i? Cho v d? Trong kim nh gi thuyt thng k c th vp nhng loi sai lm no? Hy cho bit cc bc c bn thc hin bi ton kim nh? S khc nhau c bn phn bit gia kim nh tham s v phi tham s.

5.Thi gian hon thnh mt sn phm ca nh my A qua qu trnh quan st 25 cng nhn theo bng sau: Thi gian (pht) S cng nhn 40-42 2 42-44 6 44-46 10 46-48 4 48-50 3

Theo nhn nh ca nh my thi gian hon thnh mt sn phm l 44 pht, nh vy nhn nhn ca nh my c ng khng? Gi s rng thi gian hon thnh mt sn phm ca cc cng nhn l bin chun. 6. Theo thit k k thut chiu di sn phm A l 20cm. Sau thi gian sn xut, nghi ng chiu di sn phm khng t yu cu. Tin hnh kim tra, ngi ta chn ngu nhin 64 sn phm o v thu c kt qu nh sau chiu di trung bnh 20,5 cm v lch tiu chun iu chnh l 1cm. Bit rngchiu di loi chi tit trn l bin chun N(a,). Hy kim nh iu nghi ng vi mc ngha =0,05 ? 7.Trong lng sn phm do nh my sn xut ra (X) l mt i lng ngu nhin phn phi chun vi lch chun l =2 kg v trng lng trung bnh l 20 kg. Nghi ng my hot ng khng bnh thng lm thay i trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm, ngi ta cn th 100 sn phm v thu c kt qa sau: Trng lng sn phm (kg) S sn phm tng ng 19 10 20 60 21 20 22 5 23 5

Vi mc ngha =0,05 hy kt lun v nghi ng ni trn. Cho U0,95=1,645, U0,975=1,96 hy c lng trng lng sn phm do nh my sn xut. 8. T l ph phm ca mt nh my theo d ton l 0,1 v c ngi cho rng t l l t l tht s ca ph phm. Chn ngu nhin 100 sn phm ca nh my c thy 11 ph phm. Hy kim nh nhn xt trn vi =0,05 ? 9. Gim c marketing ca mt cng ty s thc hin chng trnh khuyn mi sn phm A khu vc X nu t l nhng ngi thng xuyn theo di chng trnh qung co sn phm A ca cng ty trn truyn hnh l trn 15%. Thc hin iu tra 2500 ngi c ti vi khu vc c 380 ngi theo di chng trnh qung co sn phm ca cng ty. Vi mc ngha = 0,05, hy gip gim c marketing quyt nh xem c nn thc hin chng trnh khuyn mi khng? c lng t l nhng ngi thng xuyn theo di chng trnh qung co ca cng ty trn truyn hnh? T l nhng ngi c my thu hnh khu vc l 20%. Cho bit U0,95=1,645, U0,975=1,96. 10. nh mc thi gian lp t mt my vi tnh c nhn l mt i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut phn phi chun c thi gian quy nh l 30 pht. Do c thay i trong qui trnh lp t loi my vi tnh ny, ngi ta ngh rng iu ny c th dn n vic phi thay i nh mc thi gian lp t my. Tin hnh kim tra th 5o my vi tnh v thu c kt qu sau:

181

Thi gian lp t (pht) 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35

S my tnh 3 14 19 10 4

Vi mc ngha =0,05, hy kt lun xem c cn thay i nh mc thi gian lp t my hay (24) khng? c lng thi gian lp t trung bnh ca loi my vi tnh ? Cho bit T ,95 =1,711, 0
( T0,24) =2,064. 975

11. Mt cng ty sn xut giy dng cho my vi tnh theo k hoch cho ra nhng mu giy c chiu di trung bnh 11 cm v lch chun 0,02cm. Vo nhng khong thi gian nht nh, ngi ta ly ngu nhin nhng mu giy sn xut, xc nh chiu di trung bnh xem c bng 11cm khng bit my lm vic bnh thng hay c trc trc g. Trong mt ln kim nghim, mt mu 1000 t giy c chn v chiu da trung bnh o c 10,998 cm. Nu tin cy cho vic c lng chiu di trung bnh l 95% th nh sn xut c th kt lun g v giy sn xut c? 12. Hng sn xut xe hi Mercedes mun nghin cu mc tiu hao trung bnh lng xng ca mt loi xe ti do hng ny sn xut. Kt qu o c nh sau: Tiu hao (lt/100km) 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 a. c lng tham s trung bnh vi mc ngha 5% b. Hng khng nh mc xng tiu hao trung bnh l 19 lt /100km. Hy kim tra li li khng nh ny vi mc ngha 5%? 13. Mt doanh nghip c s liu thng k v doanh thu bn hng ca mnh qua ba nm theo cc thng nh sau: N1 N2 N3 T1 250 320 360 T2 240 330 380 T3 260 330 380 T4 270 350 400 T5 280 360 410 T6 230 270 350 T7 290 230 300 T8 180 230 300 T9 210 270 350 T10 250 350 430 T11 270 350 430 T12 300 350 450 S xe 5 9 14 18 25 16 7 6

a, Hy d on doanh thu bn hng nm th 4. b. Doanh nghip d kin nm th 4 s s dng 2% doanh thu thc hin chng trnh khuyn mi. Hy tnh khon d kin ny. c. D kin song song vi vic thc hin khuyn mi, sn lng mua ca doanh nghip tng ln 3%. Hy lp bng bo co kt qu.
182

14. Mt doanh nghip sn xut thc n nui g cng nghip mun kim tra trng lng ca cc bao thc n do mnh sn xut. Chn cn th ngu nhin 50 bao thc n v kt qu thu c nh sau: 20 35 27 27 32 27 26 29 29 28 25 21 33 36 25 31 32 31 37 32 29 26 22 28 36 30 29 29 38 40 32 32 36 23 33 29 36 32 36 30 30 33 29 36 24 22 30 31 39 28

a. Hy phn kt qu cn c thnh 5 lp. b. c lng trng lng trung bnh ca cc bao thc n trn vi tin cy 95%? 15. Cng ty nc gi kht X c 3 loi sn phm l A, B, C vi mong mun s lng chai tiu th ln lt chim 25%, 25%, 50%. Vi tin cy 95% hy kim nghim xem c tri vi mong mun khng nu kt qu iu tra thu thp nh sau: Sn phm Sn lng tiu th A 70 B 66 C 164

16. Trong mt ln kim tra s b v tnh hnh hc tp ca sinh vin mt trng i hc vi mt mu chn ngu nhin gm 400 sinh vin phn loi gii, kh, trung bnh, yu. Vi gi thit rng t l sinh vin theo cc tiu thc trn ln lt l: 20%, 50%, 20%, 10%. Kt qu kim tra cho thy: S lng SV Gii 71 Kh 194 Trung bnh 89 Yu 46

Vi mc ngha 5%, hy xc nh xem gi thuyt trn c ng khng? 17. Hy th gi thit Ho v tnh cht c lp ca hai yu t phn loi A v B bng cch dng php kim nh chi () cho trong bng sau vi mc ngha 5%? B1 39 63 30 B B2 75 51 38 B3 42 70 29

A1 A2 A3

18. nghin cu v nhu cu xem phim rp chiu bng ca nhn dn cc vng trong thnh ph Nng, mt nhn vin marketing ca cng ty chiu bng thnh ph chn ngu nhin mt mu gm 291 ngi iu tra. H c phn thnh ba vng: ni thnh, ven v huyn. Mi ngi c hi bit c i xem phim: (1): mi ngy mt ln (2): t nht mt ln/tun (4): t hn mt ln/thng (3): t nht mt ln/thng (5): khng i xem bao gi
183

Bng phn b trong mu theo vng v mc xem phim nh sau:

Vng Ni thnh Ven Huyn Tng s

(1) 20 14 4 38

Mc xem phim (s ln) (2) (3) (4) 14 23 28 14 21 34 20 10 12 74 54 48

(5) 12 12 53 77

Tng s 97 95 99 291

Vi tin cy 95% hy xt xem mi quan h ngi dn gia cc vng trong thnh ph v mc xem phim 19. Ngi ta mun iu tra xem gia loi tai nn lao ng c lin quan n tui ca ngi li xe khng, kt qu thu c: Chn, tay 9 61 Loi thng tt Mnh 17 13 S 5 12

Tui

Di 35 Trn 35

T kt qu trn, nhn vin iu tra kt lun c mi tng quan gia tui v loi thng tt ca ngi lao ng. Bn c ng khng vi tin cy 95%. 20. Mt vin thanh tra chi cc thu mun nghin cu xem c s khc nhau no trong vic k khai h s thu gia ba nhm doanh nghip khc nhau hay khng v thu thp c s liu sau: A 6 19 Loi doanh nghip B 5 20 C 9 41

Kt qu

H s sai H s ng

21. Nhn vin marketing ca mt hng nc ngt CBA mun nghin cu xem t l ngi thch chn loi nc gii kht A c tng thm sau khi chin dch qung co c thc hin hay khng. Mt mu 200 ngi ung nc ngt c chn ngu nhin v c hi h thch loi nc ngt A hay B trc v sau khi thc hin qung co hon tt. mc ngha 0,05, c bng chng no cho thy khch hng chung nc ngt A hn sau khi thc hin qung co khng? Cho bit: Trc khi qung co Sau khi qung co Loi A Loi B A 101 22 B 9 68

22. Vin thanh tra cht lng hng ca mt cng ty sn xut t mun tm hiu xem t l sn phm h hng c khc nhau trong nhng ngy khc nhau trong tun hay khng. Mi ngy ngi y chn ngu nhin mt mu 100 sn phm lm c trong ngy y. Kt qu nh sau: Kt qu S b hng S tt Tng Th hai 12 88 100 Th ba 7 93 100 Th t 7 93 100 Th nm 10 90 100 Th su 14 86 100

mc ngha 0,05, c bng chng no cho thy t l hng h hng khc nhau trong ngy khc nhau trong tun khng? 23. Trong mi tnh hung sau, cho bit phn tch thng k no bn s thc hin v cc kim nh hoc cc bin m bn s s dng:
184

Vi mt thang o Likert gm 9 im, ngi ta o lng kin ca mt nhm khch hng i vi x phng Camay. Sau ngi ta chiu mt on phim qung co cho nhng ngi tham gia ny ri o lng li ln th hai kin ca h. Qung co c t ti kh nng lm thay i kin ca ngi mua? b. kin khch hng i vi x phng Camay c tun theo qui lut phn phi chun khng? c. Mt nghin cu da vo 1000 h gia nh, nhng ngi tr li c sp xp theo mc tiu th ca h v kem (ng k, trung bnh, yu hoc khng) v mc thu nhp ca h (cao, trung bnh, thp). Mc tiu th kem c quan h vi thu nhp khng? 24. Chin dch qung co hin ti s c thay i nu t nht 30% ngi tiu dng thch. a. Xc lp gi thuyt khng v gi thuyt i b. Kim nh thng k no bn s s dng? ti sao? c. Mt iu tra da vo 300 ngi tiu dng ch ra rng 84 ngi trong s h thch qung co. Qung co c phi thay i khng? ti sao? 25. Trong khun kh mt thc nghim nhm o lng nh hng ca gii tnh v mc thng xuyn i du lch i vi s thch du lch ra nc ngoi, ngi ta thu c kt qu ca 30 ngi tr li nh phn sau. S thch c o lng i mt thang o 9 im (1= khng h thch, 9= hon ton rt thch). Gii tnh c m ho 1 i vi nam v 2 i vi n. Mc thng xuyn i du lch dducm ho nh sau: 1= yu, 2= trung bnh, 3= cao. S th t Gii tnh Mc thng xuyn i du lch S thch 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 1 3 4 1 1 4 2 1 1 5 4 2 1 6 5 2 1 7 5 2 1 8 3 2 1 9 3 2 1 10 8 3 1 11 9 3 1 12 8 3 1 13 7 3 1 14 7 3 1 15 6 1 2 16 7 1 2 17 6 1 2 18 5 1 2 19 7 1 2 20 3 2 2 21 4 2 2 22 5 2 2 23 4 2 2 24 5 2 2 25 6 3 2 26 6 3 2 27 6 3 2 28 7 3 2 29 8 3 2 30
185

a.

Vi phn mm SPSS, hy thc hin cc phn tch sau: a. Nam v n c s thch khc nhau i vi i du lch ra nc ngoi hay khng? b. Nhng ngi t i du lch, i du lch mc trung bnh v hay i du lch c s thch khc nhau i vi vic i du lch ra nc ngoi khng? c. Mc thng xuyn i du lch c khc nhau gia nam v n khng? 26. Sau y l mt vi d liu lin quan n nh hng A c thu thp t 45 khch hng. Cc d liu ny lin quan mc thng xuyn n nh hng, gii tnh ca khch hng, nh gi ca khch hng v khng gian, thi ca nhn vin phc v, cht lng cc mn n v gi c cc mn n ca nh hng. Mc thng xuyn n nh hng c m ho 1,2 v 3 theo t thng xuyn, thng xuyn v rt thng xuyn. Gii tnh c m ho 1 i vi nam v 2 i vi n. nh gi v khng gian thong p nh hng, thi lch s vui v ca nhn vin phc v, cht lng cao ca cc mn n v gi c cc mn n hp l ca nh hng c nh gi bi mt thang Likert gm 7 im( 1=Rt khng tn thnh, 7= rt tn thnh). C 5 ngi tr li khng tr li v c m ho bng gi tr khuyt l 9. TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Mc thng xuyn n 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 Gii tnh 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 khng gian thong p 7 2 3 6 5 4 5 2 4 3 6 6 4 6 4 3 7 6 1 5 6 2 1 6 3 5 7 6 9 5 nhn vin phc v lch s 6 2 3 5 4 3 4 1 4 1 7 5 3 4 3 4 6 5 1 7 6 3 1 7 2 3 6 4 2 9 mn n ngon 5 4 6 5 7 5 4 3 3 2 6 6 3 5 4 2 4 4 3 4 7 1 3 6 2 4 6 2 3 4 gi c hp l 5 6 7 3 4 2 3 4 6 4 4 4 1 3 5 4 5 3 4 1 7 4 2 7 1 4 5 5 1 6
186

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 4 3 4 5 6 6 5 7 4 2 1 2 3 1

2 6 4 6 7 5 7 6 7 3 3 3 4 3 1

9 5 3 5 7 7 5 4 6 4 4 2 3 4 4

3 9 2 7 3 3 3 3 3 6 5 3 6 6 5

a. Thit lp phn phi tn sut cho mi bin. b. Lp mt bng cho gia hai bin: mc thng xuyn n nh hng v gii tnh ? mc thng xuyn n nh hng c khc nhau gia nam v n khng ? c. D liu v nh gi cht lng cc mn n c tun theo qui lut chun hay khng ? d. Hy m ho li d liu nh gi s hp l v gi c theo mt thang o lng th t. Bin s ny c thay i theo mc thng xuyn n nh hng? 26. bit c cht lng, gi c cc mt hng nh hng nh th no n mc a thch ca khch hng i vi cc ca hng, ngi ta tin hnh nghin cu trn 14 ca hng. Cc ca hng ny dducnh gi theo cc c tnh sau : mc a thch i vi ca hng, cht lng hng ho, mc gi. Tt c cc nh gi c o lng bi mt thang im 11 trong im s cng cao biu th mc nh gi cng tt. S TT ca hng Mc a thch Cht lng HH Gi 3 5 6 1 11 6 9 2 4 6 8 3 1 2 3 4 11 6 10 5 1 3 4 6 7 4 5 7 4 1 2 8 8 9 11 9 10 5 9 10 8 8 10 11 5 1 2 12 5 8 9 13 2 3 5 14 a. Phn tch thng k no l thch hp xem xt mi quan h gia bin mc a thch v cht lng hng ho? Ti sao ? S dng phn mm SPSS thc hin phn tch v gii thch kt qu? b. Phn tch thng k no l thch hp xem xt mi quan h gia bin mc a thch vi bin cht lng hng ho v gi c? Ti sao ? S dng phn mm SPSS thc hin phn tch v gii thch kt qu?

TI LIU THAM KHO

Dick R. Wittink, The Application of Regression Analysis (Boston: Allyn & Bacon, 1988), 3031. William E. Becker, Statistics for Business and Economics (Cincinnati: South-Western College Publishing, 1995), 502.

187