China Economics

July 20, 2011

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Mar-91

Jan-11 Feb-11 Jul-96 Oct-97 Jan-99 Apr-00 Jul-01 Oct-02 Jan-04 May-11 Apr-05 Jul-06 Oct-07 Jan-09 Apr-10 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jul-11
6.5 6.6 6.7
6.45

Jan-94 Apr-95

7/20/2011
Jan-92 Nov-92 Sep-93 Jul-94

China GDP
Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11

May-95 Mar-96 Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 May-00 Mar-01 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11
15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4%

Chinese Yuan Historical

Chinese Yuan Close Up

USD-CNY X-RATE USD-CNY X-RATE

China GDP Constant Price YoY

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

6.55

6.65

8.8 8.55 8.3 8.05 7.8 7.55 7.3 7.05 6.8 6.55 6.3

China Economics
May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11
24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11
0.00%
40.00%

Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11
20.00% 60.00% 80.00%
-60.00%

China's Export Trend

China's Import Trend

China Retail Sales

China Retail Sales Value YoY

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

-40.00%

-20.00%

60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00%

100.00%

Chinese Yuan vs. CPI

USD vs. CNY Currency Rate
8.4 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02

China CPI YoY

USD-CNY X-RATE 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4%

U.S. Dollar Index

Consumer Price Index

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70

71.802

72.933

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Sep-08

Sep-09

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Sep-10

Dec-10

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

China's Purchasing Index

China Manufacturing PMI SA

58 53 48

China's Industrial Production

China Industrial Production YoY

20% 18% 16%
14%

Jun-11
12% 10% 8% 6%
4%

CONTRACTION ZONE

43
38

Aug-09

Apr-09

Oct-09

Mar-08

May-08

Mar-10

May-10

Apr-11

Jun-09

Nov-08

Dec-09

Nov-10

Sep-08

Feb-09

Sep-10

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Sep-08

Sep-09

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

China's Produce Prices

15% 10%
5%

China PPI YoY

China's Consumer Prices

China CPI YoY

10%
8%

Feb-11

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-11
6% 4% 2% 0%
-2%

Jul-08

0% -5% -10%

Jul-10

-4%

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Dec-10

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

7/20/2011

China Economics

Apr-11

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Jun-11

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