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Bi nghin cu: KHNG HONG TI CHNH M 2007 2009 V TC NG N VIT NAM

Li ni u: Nm 2008, Th trng ti chnh ton cu ri vo tnh trng him nguy trc cuc khng hong bt ngun t M. Cc nh kinh t c gng tm ra nguyn nhn hp l cho cuc khng hong ln ny. Austin Murphy nh kinh t hc M cho rng cuc khng hong ti chnh l hu qu ca vic m rng cho vay v hn v s bin tng ca hp ng hon i ri ro tn dng (CDS) c bit l nh gi sai th trng CDS. Bi vit ny s da vo qu trnh chng khon ho v c im ca CDS lm r nguyn nhn khng hong. ng thi bi vit cng nu ra nhng nhn t trc tip xc tc n cuc khng hong, quy m, gii php v tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam. Bi vit ny gm c 4 phn: Phn 1: Qu trnh chng khon ho. Phn 2: Hp ng hon i ri ro tn dng ( CDS ) Phn 3: Khng hong ti chnh M 2007-2009. Phn 4: Tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam.

Phn 1: Qu trnh chng khon ha

1.1 Khi qut v qu trnh chng khon ho: Chng khon ho l qu trnh kt hp cc ti sn hoc khi ti sn c tnh thanh khon thp thnh chng khon c tnh thanh khon cao hn v c th chuyn nhng trn th trng.

Bt u t ngi i vay th chp mua nh (Mortgagor) v ng to lp khon vay i i (Originator), khi hp ng cho vay hon thnh bng cn i ca nh to l s c ti sn th ng b o lp chp. Trc khi c qu trnh chng khon ho (nhng nm 80 ca th k 20) nh to lp s gi cc khon n ny cho n khi o hn v nhn li sut nh k trong k h n. Tuy nhin khi n nh hn qu trnh chng khon ho xut hin, h bn li cc khon vay cho bn th ba (cng l ng xu n th chuyn li ri ro tn dng cho bn ny) nh li tin mt v bt u m vng quay vn mi. ng nhn t Doanh thu ca nh to lp chnh l ph to lp khon vay v gi tr chnh l p t lch gia gi bn khon vay v s tin cho vay n ng thi dng li sut s chuyn t cho bn th ba. th Bn th ba trong qu trnh chnh l nh pht hnh (Issuer). Lc ny giy t vay th chp gi mang mt tn gi mi l ch khon m bo bng th chp bt ng s nh (RMBS ng ng sn Residential Mortagage backed Security). Nh pht hnh thng kt hp RMBS v cc khon N p vi vay khc nh: chng khon m bo bng th chp bt ng sn th ng n thng mi (CMBS Commercial mortgage backed security), vay i hc (student loan), mua xe (auto loan) v th tn c th dng (credit card)thnh m gi ti sn (pool) gi chung l chng khon m bo bng ti sn t ng

(ABS Asset backed Security). Nh pht hnh chia gi ti sn ny thnh nhi phn nh v s n nhiu phn chia theo mc ri ro khc nhau thng l ba mc: Senior, mezzanine v equity. Cui cng i th c: Cu cc phn ti sn sau khi chia s c pht hnh ra th trng cho nh u t di dng chng s ng khon m bo bng ti sn (CDO Collateralized Debt Obligation) v nh pht hnh s nhn n s li ph pht hnh v phn ln h mnh gi ca chng khon c pht hnh. Nh u t vo n hn c cc loi chng khon ny s nh li tc nh k c nh pht hnh phn pht v nh li phn nhn c nhn gc khi khon n o hn.

a c v Mt qu trnh nh vy v gip cc ngn hng huy ng c thm vn ti tr hot ng cho vay, ng thi kt thc ti trnh to ra sn phm CDO to thm c hi a dng ho danh t tin h mc u t cho th trng. Nh vy cu hi t ra l qu trnh ny gp ph gy ra khng ng. Nh phn hong nh th no.

1.2 S bt cn xng thng tin trong qu trnh chng khon ho v vic m rng cho vay qu mc (v hn): 1.2.1 Khi qut v s bt cn xng v thng tin: Bt cn xng thng tin l khi nim dng ch mt bn trong giao dch c thng tin tt hn dn n vic a ra cc iu khon trong tho thun khng chnh xc, dn n nguy c gy ra thit hi cho bn cn li. Vn bt cn xng v thng tin dn n hai hu qu l: La chn i nghch (Adverse selection) v ri ro o c (moral hazard). La chn i nghch xy ra trc khi tho thun c thng qua. Bn c t thng tin hn s khng th bit c chnh xc mc ri m h s phi gnh chu, v vy h thng c xu hng a ra quyt nh sao cho ri ro h nhn c l mc trung bnh. Khi , bn i tc s sng sng chp nhn nu ri ro thc t l thp hn hoc tng ng vi mc m bn c t thng tin a ra v ngc li nu thc s ri ro l t hn th bn i tc s khng chp nhn. Do , bn c t thng tin vn phi gnh chu ri ro ln. V d: trong hot ng mua bn xe hi c ngi mua xe khng th hiu r tt c cc vn bn trong ca xe. ng trc nhng chic xe c v ngoi nh nhau ngi mua khng th bit chic no thc s tt hn dn n nguy c h c th mua phi mt chic xe h hng (lemon). V vy, ngi mua thng c xu hng a ra mc gi mua mc trung bnh gim ri ro. Tuy nhin, cha hn l iu tt bi v nhng chic xe c cht lng thp hn mc gi h a ra (ch mua c nhng chic xe tt khi ngi bn tht s ang trong tnh trng khn cp). Tht kh ngi mua chp nhn iu ny khi h nhn ra vn . Ri ro o c xy ra sau khi giao dch c tho thun. Bn c nhiu thng tin hn s thc hin cc hot ng nhm lm ti a li ch hoc gim thiu thit hi ca mnh m khng h quan tm rng hnh ng s lm gia tng ri ro cho pha i tc. V d: mt ngi i vay tin t ngn hng v th chp bng cn nh ca mnh. Sp n hn tr n, ngi i vay bit khng th tr c n v chc chn rng trong tng lai h s khng cn nh ny na. Khi thc bo qun cn nh ca h khng cn tt na (khng tu dng khi n c s c) v cui cng khi ngn

hng tch thu v pht mi nh gi c cn nh s b gim dn n nguy c thit hi cho ngn ch ca n c hng. 1.2.2 Bt cn xng thng tin gi cc i tng trong qu trnh chng khon ho v ng gia ch vic m rng cho vay qu mc: m Bi vit s ln lt tm hi vn bt cn xng thng tin gia cc i tng tham gia vo t hiu a qu trnh chng khon ho nh ng nhm lm r nguyn nhn ca vic m rng cho vay qu m (v ng mc hn).

1.2.2.1 Ngi i vay v ng i ngi to lp khon vay: Sau khng hong Dotcom li su cho vay xung thp (xung thp nht 1% vo 2003) do otcom sut p nh FED iu hnh chnh sch ti t ni lng cng vi chnh sch gia tng s hu nh cho cc i n ng s tng c thu thp khng n t tin c vo cho vay mua nh. nh,

Cc i tng i vay (mortgagor) phn ln u c p dng (c th ni l p t) li sut thay i (ARM Adjustable rate mortgage). Vi li sut ARM ban u ngi i vay s tr li sut c nh theo hp ng v sau mt khong thi gian (thng l 5 nm) (Murphy), li sut s iu chnh theo th trng. Mt khc, lun c nhiu ngi cn vay hn l s ngi c vay v h khng t c chun vay. Lc ny chun vay h xung i vi ngi i vay dng nh l mt n hu, do h thng chu s p t trong iu khon ca hp ng vay. Vi la chn ny kh nng nh to lp s c li i vi cc khon vay c gi li v li sut hin ti rt thp (li sut thc m) khi nn kinh t M phc hi sau khng hong dotcom v s kin 11.9 c th li sut s tng tr li. Phn ln cc khon vay u c bn i v nh to lp s hng li t ph to lp khon vay v phn chnh lch sau khi bn li khon vay. R rng, nh to lp c qu nhiu la chn: chi ph vn thp, p dng li sut ARM c tim nng mang li li ch to ln trong tng lai v h cn c th bn li khon vay cho nh pht hnh nu khng mun ch luiu ny khuyn khch gia tng hot ng cho vay. 1.2.2.2 Nh to lp v nh pht hnh:

Nh pht hnh c vai tr mua cc khon vay t pha nh to lp khon vay tc l tt c ri ro t vic ngi i vay khng th tr c n chuyn t nh to lp sang nh pht hnh. in hnh trong hot ng mua li ny l hai ngn hng lin bang Fandie Mae v Freddie Mac vi s bo tr ca chnh ph M h ra sc mua li cc khon vay t pha cc nh to lp gp phn thc y gia tng hot ng cho vay (mt ln na). Vn pht sinh l nh to lp khng qun l tt mc tn nhim ca ngi i vay (thng qua nh mi gii) dn n nh pht hnh phi gnh chu ri ro nhiu hn. Nhiu trng hp c ghi nhn thng tin trong hp ng vay c th b sai lch do nh to lp v ngi i vay c gy ra: vn thc hin cho vay d bit kh nng tr n ca ngi i vay rt thp, gi cho ngi i vay nh ngi c mc tn nhim cao hn ng tn vay v s thay i hp ng sau mt thi gian... Lc ny ngi i vay c th vay nhiu hn v ngc li nh to lp cng cho vay nhiu hn nhng ri ro li do nh pht hnh gnh chu. trnh vic bng cn i ca mnh b xu i do cha cc ti sn y ri ro nh cc khon n, nh pht hnh thnh lp mt nh ch ti chnh c lp c tn gi l Special Purpose Vehicle hay Trust v lm sch bng cn i ca nh pht hnh bng cch mua li cc khon vay. Da vo trust nh pht hnh c th mua li khon vay khng hn ch, chuyn sang cho trust m vn m bo quy nh v an ton vn. 1.2.2.3 Nh pht hnh v nh ti tr: Mt s nh pht hnh khng c ngun vn t c nn phi vay t pha nh ti tr (warehouse lender). Vn bt cn xng thng tin gia hai i tng tham gia ny dn n la chn i nghch. Nh pht hnh dng ti sn th chp ( y l cc khon n) vay tin t nh ti tr. Tuy nhin h c thng tin tt hn v ri ro ca ti sn m h em th chp, t pht sinh nguy c nh ti tr nhn c cc khon th chp vi gi cao hn thc t. i php t pha nh ti tr l cho vay t hn gi tr thc t ca cc giy t n v bt nh pht hnh phi c mt khon i ng. Tuy nhin vn quan trng y l nh pht hnh c c thm ngun tin mt ti tr cho vic mua li khon vay, thc y thm qu trnh to lp hp ng vay th chp. 1.2.2.4 Nh pht hnh, nh u t v c quan xp hng tn dng:

Trc khi chng khon c a ra th trng c xp hng tn dng nh vo c quan xp hng tn dng do nh pht hnh thu. T mc hng tn nhim c nh gi cho chng khon nh pht hnh s dng mt s bin php gia tng mc tn nhim (Credit enhancement) gim bt ri ro cho nh u t v gia tng mc hp dn cho chng khon pht hnh. Cc cng c thng dng l subordination v overcollateralization. Subordination tc l phn loi chng khon theo cc mc ri ro t thp ln cao: Senior, Mezzanine v Equity. T mc ri ro cao nh u t s nhn li li tc cao. Tuy nhin, h s l ngi nhn li tc sau cng v chu thit hi u tin v ngc li. Overcollateralization tc l tng gi tr chng khon pht hnh s nh hn tng gi tr cc khon n khi nu mt vi khon n khng th chi tr th li tc vn c tip tc phn pht cho nh u t. c la chn i nghch gia nh pht hnh v cc bn c lin quan v li ch (c quan xp hn tn dng v nh u t). y nh pht hnh c thng tin tt hn v ti sn c s pht hnh chng khon do lm pht sinh nguy c chng khon bn ra c cht lng km. C quan xp hn tn dng a ra quyt nh mc tn nhim cho chng khon ch yu da vo s liu trn giy t v ti sn c s do nh pht hnh cung cp. V vy h c th a ra quyt nh sai lm (cao hn hoc thp hn thc t). Lc ny h phi c chnh sch li ch t c l tt nht khi lun c s cnh tranh trn th trng. Do , c quan xp hng tn dng thng c xu hng nh gi mc tn nhim cao cho chng khon, bi v nh pht hnh tr tin cho h ch khng phi nh u t. Tuy nhin iu ny li lm pht sinh la chn i nghch gia nh pht hnh v nh u t. H l ngi c thng tin t nht v ti sn c s pht hnh chng khon v d pht sinh tnh trng h mua c hng xu (The Lemon). Nn cch duy nht l nhn vo xp hng tn nhim ca c quan xp hng vn cao hn thc t. Tm li hot ng tng mc tn nhim (Credit enhancement) ca nh pht hnh cng vi s tip tay ca c quan xp hng tn dng lm m i ri ro i vi nh u t v tn hp dn gi to cho chng khon c pht hnh lm cho sn phm ca qu trnh c tiu th d dng hn. Ngc li, n s thc y qu trnh chng khon ho din ra lin tc ng thi vi qu trnh ny l cc hp ng vay cng phi lin tc c to ra.

1.2.2.5 Nh qun l ti sn v nh u t cui cng: Thng thng CDO pht hnh ra th trng thng c bn vi s lng ln nn nh u t ch yu l t chc gi chung l nh qun l ti sn (Asset manager) ng thi cng l i din cho nhng nh u t c nhn khng kh nng t tham gia th trng ny (v kin thc cng nh quy m vn). Nh qun l ti sn thng l cc ngn hng u t hoc qu u t, h huy ng vn t cng chng v nhim v ca h l c cu danh mc u t sao cho li nhun v mc ri ro l ti u. Trong mi quan h ny pht sinh vn v quyn s dng v quyn s hu vn u t (Principal Agent, Mt dng ri ro o c). H qu tp trung vo quyt nh t c quan xp hn tn dng vn cao hn thc t la chn danh mc u t. Thc t vic u t vo cc CDO c pht hnh s nhn c li tc cao hn so vi chng khon cng ty v ri ro ca n l cao hn, do nh qun l ti sn c cu danh mc u t ca mnh bng mt lng ln CDO v c t ng lc lm tt vic xem xt ri ro. Tip , vic ny li khin nh pht hnh c rt t ng lc qun tr ri ro t cc khon vay mua ca nh to lp, c nh vy n li khuyn khch nh to lp cho vay qu mc v m rng sang cc khu vc c chun ngy cng thp. Tuy nhin, mt vi nm trc khng hong qu trnh chng khon ho pht trin thm mt bt, l qu trnh chng khon ho li (Resecuritization). Lc ny, ABS khng ch l tng hp t MBS na m cn t c CDO v sn phm to ra s l CDO cp 2 (squared) hay cp 3 (scubed) hay cao hn naMt ln na ri ro li b lm m hn na i vi nhng nh u t vo cc CDO cp cao hn. CDO cp cao khng da trn ti sn th chp nhng n cng da trn CDO cp 1 da trn ti sn th chp cho nn qu trnh chng khon ho li cng gp phn thc y qu trnh cho vay nhiu hn. Tm li, cng xa hn trong qu trnh chng khon ho thng tin ca cc i tng tham gia cng hn hp. Do ny sinh kh nng ngi u t cui cng s phi gnh chu ri ro rt ln b lm m i. Mt qu trnh chng khon ho din ra nhanh hn dn n nhu cu v cc khon vay th chp (RMBS) nhiu hn xc tc hot ng cho vay. Thm vo tin li ang vo th trng bt ng sn dn n cho vay qu mc.

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Gi nh t tng vt do cu tng t bin dn n ny sinh hot ng u c. Hot ng ny thc y gi nh t tng nhanh hn lm cho bong bng nh t ngy cng phnh to (Boom) v khng bit s bm n (Burst) lc no.

Phn 2: Hp ng hon i ri ro tn dng.

2.1 Khi nim: CDS c xem l dng thc c bn trong s cc sn phm tn dng phi sinh. V bn cht, CDS cng tng t nh mt hp ng bo him theo ngha CDS chuyn dch ri ro v n ca ca mt thc th c cp trong hp ng ( nh ri ro v n ca mt tri phiu ) t bn mua s bo him sang bn bn bo him. V tt nhin bn mua s phi tr mt khon ph theo nh k cho bn bn ( thng l 5 nm ), trong trng hp xy ra s kin v n ca thc th c cp trong hp ng th bn bn CDS c trch nhim thanh ton khon bi thng cho bn mua theo cc iu khon trong hp ng. 2.2 c im ca CDS: Nh ta ni trn th CDS cng c c ch tng ng nh mt hp ng bo him thng thng, tuy nhin CDS khc vi hp ng bo him ch n khng yu cu ngi mua CDS phi c mi lin h vi thc th c bo him, c ngha l bn c th mua CDS cho mt loi tri phiu m bn khng thc s s hu v trng ch vo s v n ca loi tri phiu nhn c mt khon bi thng. y, vic mua bn CDS gn nh mang tnh c cc. Chi ph ca CDS phn nh phn no ri ro v n ca thc th php l lin quan. Trong trng hp kh nng v n gia tng, gi c ca CDS s tng v ngc li. Chnh c im ny cho php ngi mua bit c th trng ang nh gi th no v ri ro v n ca thc th php l trong tng lai. Tuy nhin chi ph ca CDS li ph thuc nhiu vo nhn thc ca th trng, do c th nh gi sai lm. CDS c giao dch trn th trng phi tp trung( OTC ). 11/1999 o lut Glass-Steagall b thay th bi o lut Gramm-Leach-Bliley ( bt u c p dng vo u nm 2000 ) v mt trong nhng im mi ca o lut ny l th trng CDS khng chu s gim st, qun l ca

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bt k t chc no. V t y ny sinh ra nhiu vn phc tp m nhng ngi ng h cho o lut ny khng lng trc c. T chnh nhng c im trn, CDS c chn l gii php gia tng mc tn nhim cho cc loi tri phiu n, khi nh pht hnh s m bo kh nng chi tr ca mnh ngay c khi c s kin v n xy ra v chnh iu ny cng lm cho cc nh u t vo cc tri phiu ny an tm hn. V bn cht, th ri ro c chuyn t nh pht hnh( ngi mua bo him ) sang nh bo him ( ngi bn ). Tuy nhin, vn y l vic nh gi cc hp ng CDS sao cho ph hp vi ri ro ca thc th lin quan. 2.3 Hn ch trong vic nh gi CDS: V c bn gi c ca mt hp ng CDS c chia thnh hai thnh phn: gi tr thi gian ca ng tin v ri ro tn dng. Trong ri ro tn dng gm c ri ro v n ( ri ro ca thc th c bo him v ri ro i tc ) v ri ro h thng. Xin nhc li, ri ro h thng l ri ro do cc yu t ngoi cng ty gy ra v nh hng n c th trng, y l loi ri ro khng th a dng ha c cn ri ro i tc l loi ri ro xut pht t pha bn bn bo him khi m thc th v n nhng nh bo him khng thc hin c ngha v thanh ton ca mnh. Tuy vy, ri ro i tc c th c gim thiu bng vic yu cu bn bn CDS c mt khon k qu i vi hp ng bo him ca mnh nh l mt khon m bo. Tuy nhin, i vi cc nh bo him c xp hng tn nhim mc AAA, h khng cn phi k qu, do khon u t ban u l khng c nn khon b p gi tr thi gian ca ng tin khng c xt n y. Ngoi ra n c bo m bi cc nh bo him ln ( nh ngn hng, cc tp on th chp lin bang FNMA hay FHLMC hay nhng cng ty bo him nh l AMBAC, MBIA v AIG ) c tha nhn c h s tn nhim gn vi B ti chnh M ti mc Aaa v mt s trong nhng cng ty bo him li c ng h bi chnh ph M ( nh FNMA v FHLMC) hoc c th l qu ln ph sn (nh nhiu ngn hng thng mi v u t ), vy nn phn b ri ro h thng v ri ro i tc trong ri ro tn dng l khng c. Vy nn trong chi ph CDS ch tnh n phn b ri ro v n ca thc th c bo him. Khng ch dng li y, vic nh gi CDS cn nhiu hn ch khc. Th nht, do phng php tn im tn dng ch da trn thng k n thun: s dng hn ch cc yu t trong m

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hnh, khng bao hm tc ng ca cc u vo khng c giy t chng minh m nhng yu t ny li c ngha rt ln nhn bit cc s kin bt ng, cc s liu b bp mo, s liu khng c thm tra li, p dng my mc nhng l thuyt ton hc thun ty m thiu i nhng nhn nh c nhnTh hai, cc nh bo him qu ch trng vo h s tn nhim v cc khon vay vn d b nh gi mt cch sai lm t cc c quan nh gi tn nhim. V cui cng do nh bo him chy theo yu t li nhun: mt phn do khng cn phi u t m vn nhn c mt doanh thu ng k, n thun l bn li h s tn nhim ca mnh cho cc chng khon ca cc nh pht hnh ( gp phn nng gi tr ca n ) v nhn c mt khon ph. Hn th na, i vi cc nh bo him c h s tn nhim AAA ( nh AIG ) th h khng cn phi c mc k qu i vi cc hp ng bo him nn h c th bo him mt cch trn lan, tnh n nm 2006 gi tr bo him ca AIG ln ti 527 t USD, cn i vi nhng nh bo him c h s tn nhim thp hn th h ch cn k qu l hot ng bo him ca h c th din ra mt cch sun s. Bn cnh , t nm 2000 th cc CDS ny khng cn chu s gim st, qun k ca cc c quan chc nng. Chnh nhng iu ny thc y cc nh bo him tng cng hot ng ca mnh hn na. 2.4 Ri ro o c xut hin nh th no trn th trng CDS? Th nht, cc khon k qu ban u ca pha bn bo him c vai tr rt quan trng, n gp phn m bo kh nng bi thng ca cc hp ng CDS trong trng hp thc th php l lin quan v n. Nu thiu khon k qu ny, bn mua bo him phi da vo mt tn hiu khc an tm bn bn s thc hin tt ngha v ca mnh, chnh l h s tn him ca bn bo him. Tuy nhin mt s bn bn CDS c quy m ln, vi kh nng chi phi t chc nh gi c lp hoc xy dng h thng nh gi ca mnh, da vo vic nh gi c li cho mnh ( h s tn nhim mc AAA ) th h hon ton c kh nng n trnh trit vic k qu ban u trn mi hp ng CDS c pht hnh. Trong khi nhng nh gi tn nhim gi vai tr quan trng bn mua s bo him nh hng trong vic ra quyt nh ca mnh th nhng t chc cung cp nh gi ny hon ton c th b chi phi bi nhng mu thun li ch v nhng nh gi c a ra nhiu kh nng khng phn nh khch quan v trung thc tnh hnh ca doanh nghip. Chnh v vy, nhng t chc ny khng kh nng hn ch c nguy c o c t bn bn

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CDS theo cch m cc khon m bo c th lm c. V d, nu bn bn CDS c yu cu mt khon m bo l 10% gi tr khi ton ca hp ng hon i, th bn bn s b gii hn trong vic cung cp hp ng bo him ny v t hn ch c nguy c o c t bn bn CDS. Tuy nhin, vic n trnh c khon k qu ban u lm cho cc nh bo him khng gii hn vic k kt cc hp ng mi m khng quan tm n ri ro. Th hai, vic cung cp cc hp ng bo him CDS ch d trn nh gi mt chiu rng gi c ca cc ti sn tham chiu ( y l bt ng sn ) s khng b gim trong sut thi gian hp ng CDS cn hiu lc. T y li cng gp phn thc y nh bo him tng cng hot ng ca mnh hn na. Th ba, s thiu minh bch ca th trng OTC i vi CDS khin bn mua CDS gn nh khng th c kh nng nh gi mc ri ro i tc tng th ca bn bn. Nh mt hu qu tt yu, nhng ngi bn CDS, in hnh l AIG, c th chp nhn nhiu ri ro hn cn thit. Cui cng, bn thn bn mua CDS, nh cc ngn hng chu u, lm dng hp ng ny chp nhn nhiu ri ro hn mc c php 2.5 S bng n ca th trng CDS: Chnh do nh gi thp khon b p cho nhng ri ro trong cc hp ng CDS lm cho gi ca CDS rt r. V CDO mt khi c bo m bi cc nh bo him uy tn th nh u t nhn thy rng loi chng khon ny hu nh ri ro ( gn nh tri phiu kho bc M mc AAA). Chnh vic c bo m ny thc y vic u t vo cc CDO ca nh u t. Cng vi vic nh bo him lun sn lng cung cp nhng hp ng bo him ny lm bng n th trng CDS. Bn cnh , th trng CDS cn c kh nng u c rt ln v ngi mua CDS khng nht thit phi s hu ti sn hay chng khon c s, h ch mua nhm c cc kh nng v n ca thc th . Vn xy ra y l cc t chc mua CDS mang tnh cht u c c th lm mi th thc th v n ( bn khng c phiu lm gi ca n i xung ). Chnh vic ny cng gp phn lm cho th trng CDS tr nn to ln nh vy, chim 73% tng s sn phm phi sinh n tr gi 2.3 ngn t USD trong nm 2002 (OKane, 2005) v pht trin ngy cng nhanh t con s khng vo 2001 n khong 15 ngn t USD vo 2005 v hn 60 ngn USD vo 2007 (Baily et al 2008).

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Phn 3: Khng hong ti chnh M 2007-2009

3.1 Nhn t xc tc v quy m khng hong Vic nh u t thch th vi cc CDO ny m bo u ra cho cc hp ng vay n ( ngay c di chun ), lm cho cc nh to lp cc khon vay tng cng cho vay hn na, cc nh bo him bn CDS khng ngng. Vng xoay ny tip din lm chnh lch gia li sut ca cc khon n ri ro v cc khon n khng ri ro st gim xung mc cha tng thy do vic cc nh u t sn sng kinh doanh chnh lnh gi, bn bt k tri phiu hoc cc khon n no m c nh gi mc chnh lch li tc cao hn. Nhng nh kinh doanh chnh lnh gi ny s mua nhng khon n c mc li tc cao, mua bo him CDS r cho chng, v sau kim tin t s khc bit gia cc mc chnh lch gi v bo him nh l mt phn tin li d ra cho mt t nhng ri ro c nhn thy. Nhng hot ng trn ko li sut ca tt c cc tri phiu v khon n xung n gi ca cc CDS nh l s cnh tranh vi mng li nhng ngi cho vay c s dng cng c phng nga r ro lm gim li sut cho vay. Trong nhng nm u ngi cho vay c th to ra li nhun v t l n khng c kh nng chi tr c xu hng thp v v vic hnh thnh cc khon cho vay mi cng to mt thu nhp ng k t cc khon ph ca cc cng ty cho vay. Khi nn kinh t vn m rng vi mt tc nh nhng nm trc, v li sut thp hn mc bnh thng dn n khi lng cho vay tng t bin do nhu cu tng ca khch hng, nhng li nhun ngn hn c tng cng hn na cho cc t chc cho vay. Tuy nhin, do lm pht M tng t 1.6% trong 2002 n 2.3% trong 2003, 2.7% trong 2004, 3.4% trong 2005, ln n nh im 4.3% trong 2006 nn cc D tr lin bang M (FED) tng dn dn mc li sut t 1% nm 2004 n 5.25% nm 2006 v gi nguyn mc n u nm 2008. iu ny dn n s xut hin nhng vt nt u tin trong th trng nh t. Mt s ngi i vay, c bit l nhng ngi i vay vi mc li sut c th iu chnh (ARM), bt u cm thy lo lng v li sut tng qu cao s lm gim kh nng chi tr ca h, v cui cng h khng th tr c n th chp dn n b tch thu ti sn. S lng ti sn th chp b tch thu tng ln kh nhanh t 885000 trong 2005 n 1259118 trong 2006, 2203295 trong 2007

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v 3157806 trong 2008. Chnh vic pht mi lm cho lng cung nh khng ngng tng ln, dn n gi nh gim gp phn to ra nhiu hn na cc v v n c th chp bng bt ng sn (th trng nh t din bin theo hng mt cn bng). iu ny cng lm gia tng vic pht mi dn n gi th trng ca cc khon thanh ton th chp gim lm cho nhiu ngn hng v cc nh ch ti chnh khc ri vo tnh trng bp bnh, kh c th tr vng c v h buc phi tht cht tn dng lm cho hot ng kinh t chm li, tht nghip gia tng. Nn kinh t c chiu hng i xung, tht nghip tng cng lm gia tng t l v n, thc y hn na vic pht mi. V iu ny c th din ra trong mt vng ln qun. Kt qu l nhiu ngn hng ngh Cc d tr lin bang M (FED) tung ra mt gi cu tr ti chnh c gi tr hng trm t USD lm tng tnh thanh khon vo ma h 2007. Cc nh u t nhn thy c rng: cc v v n c th lan rng sang cc khon vay th chp cn li nn chi ph b p cho ri ro h thng tng ln lm gim gi cc khon n. Gi cc khon n gim theo h thng lm cho ri ro h thng tng hn na cng lc khon b p cho ri ro h thng cng tng cao. V chu trnh ny ngy cng tr nn trm trng hn vi s tht bi ca nhiu t chc ti chnh ln nh l Bear Stearns, FNMA, FHLMC, Lehman Brothers, v AIG. y l tht bi c lin quan n vic u t ca nhng t chc ny vo cc hp ng n thuc nhiu loi khc nhau m gi tr ca chng gim n mc cc khon n vt qu tng gi tr ti sn hin c ca doanh nghip tnh theo gi th trng, dn n khng hong tnh thanh khon, tr thnh cht xc tc cho s sp . Chnh tnh thanh khon thp cng gy ra nhiu s v n hn. V nhng thit hi t v n th chp di chun vt qu cc khon ph bo him tn dng m cc cng ty bo him nhn c trc . Do ngy cng c nhiu t chc b sp , khon b p ri ro tn dng (ri ro i tc) trn th trng tng cao hn bao gi ht v cc cng ty bo him b yu cu thm khon k qu. Thanh khon thp, v n tng cao cng lm tng thm khon b p ri ro tn dng trong mt vng ln qun. Mc d Cc d tr lin bang M (FED) n lc can thip bng cch a ra mt lng tin mt cn thit nhng khon b p ri ro tn dng vn khng ngng gia tng. Khng hong tn dng dn n mt s suy gim nghim trng ca th trng chng khon khin cng chng hong s v yu cu cc nh lnh o chnh ph cu tr cho cc t chc ti

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chnh ang lm nguy vo ma thu nm 2008. Nim tin ca ngi tiu dng gim st mt cch trm trng. Chnh yu t ny cng vi s tht cht tn dng t nhng tiu chun lng lo ban u cng nh s v n ti sn th chp gia tng gy ra mt s suy gim nghim trng trong chi tiu tiu dng v kt qu tt yu l suy thoi kinh t. Do mc v n ngy cng gia tng nn vn nh gi sai ph bo him tn dng c th s c phng i hn na, c bit l n nm 2009 cc khon chi tr cho mt lng ln ARMs s tng cao v s tip tc tc ng tiu cc n kh nng chi tiu tiu dng. Kt qu c th dn n s suy gim hn na nim tin v chi tiu ca ngi tiu dng, lm cho suy thoi cng thm trm trng. Cuc khng hong tn dng ri vo mt vng ln qun v c th lm cho nn kinh t ri vo suy thoi ko di. Tt c nhng iu ny to nn cuc khng hong ti chnh M. 3.2 Gii php kh thi cho khng hong gii cu nn kinh t, chnh ph M chi n hn 3000 t USD (cn c th hn th na) cho cc gi cu tr ti chnh cho nn kinh t. Tuy nhin, cc gi cu tr ny dng nh khng c hiu qu tt, khng p ng tt nhu cu bch thit ca nhiu t chc. Do cn ra c cc chnh sch, bin php khc hiu qu v tit kim hn. Trong bi vit ca mnh vo 2008, Austin Murphy a ra mt s gii php nh sau: 3.2.1 Quc hu ha cc t chc tn dng c kh nng phc hi: Trong bi cnh kinh t ang trong tnh trng suy thoi, khng hong thanh khon cng lm cho tnh trng thm kh khn. Mt khc, nh l mt t trng, cc t chc tn dng thng sp theo dy chuyn. Do , mt bin php kh thi c a ra l quc hu ho cc t chc tn dng cn c kh nng phc hi. Lc ny, vic ti c cu li cc t chc ny s c thc hin trn c s tim lc ti chnh mnh m t ngn sch chnh ph v s gim st cht ch ca cc c quan cng quyn. ng thi, sau khi quc hu ho cc t chc ny vn duy tr c hot ng (sn lng v vic lm) nu h c c hi khi phc li. Bin php ny c th trnh c tnh trng cu tr trn lan gy lng ph tin ca ca nhn dn, chnh ph c th chn ch danh tng i tng ng trc nguy c sp nhng cn c kh nng hi phc. ng thi, bin php ny

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cn c kh nng ngn nga s sp h thng (gy ri ro h thng cho th trng) khi cc t chc tr ct ca nn kinh t c gii cu. 3.2.2 Ti tr bng hp ng th chp SAM (Shared Appreciation Mortgage):

Khi bong bng nh t n tung, gi nh sp gim nghim trng, s lng ngi i vay khng th chi tr ngy cng gia tng. Hot ng tch thu v pht mi nh lm tng lng cung nh cng y gi nh gim su hn. Lc ny, trnh phi gnh chu nhiu chi ph pht mi mt loi th chp mi gi l SAM c cc ngn hng pht hnh. Vi SAM mt hp ng vay mi s c lp li, ngi i vay s ch phi tr s n gc bng gi nh hin ti vi mt li sut thp hn. Tuy nhin, trong tng lai nu gi nh tng ln th ngn hng s hng mt phn tu theo tho thun trong hp ng SAM. iu ny lm cho ngi i vay vn c c hi c nh v ngn hng cng c c hi gim thit hi trong tng lai. 3.2.3 Qun l cht ch hot ng bn khng (Short sale): Khi th trng chng khon M sp , gi chng khon i xung mnh m. Xu hng ny chnh l iu kin l tng cho hot ng short sale vn b cm sau i khng hong 1929 1933 v c chnh ph M khi thng vo nm 2000. Hot ng ny lm cho gi chng khon nhanh chng ri v zero nu t chc ang thiu tnh thanh khon. Ngc li vic gi chng khon gim li lm cho cc t chc khng th thc hin vic huy ng vn gii quyt tnh trng hin ti v dn n nhanh chng sp , ngay vi cc t chc ang c gi tr ti sn ln hn ngha v n ca mnh. Trong bi cnh nh vy, vic cm hot ng bn khng chng khon v bt buc phi thc hin chuyn nhng lm cho cc nh u t thc hin vic bn khng phi mua li chng khon thc hin chuyn nhng. Do to c hi cho gi chng khon i ln. Trong bi cnh khng hong, nim tin ca ngi tiu dng st gim nghim trng. Tuy nhin, vi mc pht trin cao ca cc ngnh nh cng nghip oto hay xy dng nh ang c s d tha ln trong kh nng sn xut v li nhun bin khng l. Do , tn dng nn c cp ti a cho bt c ngi mua no c mc thit hi do khng th chi tr di mc 3% (nh hn tng li nhun bin (sau cc khon chi ph kh bin) kim c t vic bn hng). Nh vic

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ni lng tn dng ny s lm tng lng cu thc, ko theo gia tng sn xut v li nhun m khng cn ti gi cu tr ca chnh ph. Phn ln cc gi kch cu ca chnh ph tung ra u dng tit kim hoc ti tr cho vic chi tr n. Do , chnh ph cn phi chi nhiu hn na thay i tm l ang hong s ca ngi tiu dng ng thi u t vo cc lnh vc nh gio dc, y t, mi trng, c s h tngChi tiu ca chnh ph c th c tn dng b p phn no s suy gim trong sn lng v vic lm do s tht bi ca cc t chc ti chnh cng nh cc tp on kinh t khc.

Phn 4: Tc ng n Vit Nam

Tc ng trc tip i vi nn kinh t Vit Nam th khng ln, v cha c nh ch ti chnh no ca Vit Nam u t vo tri phiu MBS, CDO, CDS v cc hp ng cho vay cm c nh M. Tuy nhin khng hong ti chnh M cng c nhng tc ng nht nh n nn kinh t Vit Nam, v kinh t M l nn kinh t ln chim 30% tng sn lng, chu chuyn vn th trng th gii. Trong iu kin hin nay, tt c cc quc gia u hi nhp nn nht c, nht ng ca mt nn kinh t no cng c nh hng nht nh i vi th gii, cha ni ti mt nn kinh t ln nh M. Vy nn tc ng gin tip li kh mnh, c th thy c nhng nh hng nht nh ca khng hong kinh t ton cu i vi nn kinh t Vit Nam qua mt s lnh vc nh sau: 5.1 Xut khu: Trong lnh vc thng mi, mt khi m ngi tiu dng M tht cht hu bao th nhiu nn kinh t da ch yu vo ngun li t xut khu chc chn s gp rt nhiu kh khn. Vi Vit Nam cng vy, hin nay 60% GDP ca chng ta l phc v cho xut khu, m M l th trng nhp khu quan trng cc mt hng dt may, da giy, thu sn ca Vit Nam. Khng hong ti chnh ca M lm cho xut khu ca Vit Nam vo M gim mnh v hai l do: th nht l hng xut khu ca Vit Nam mt phn ln vn l cc loi hng th, trong khi gi cc nguyn liu th trn th trng th gii ang gim, k c khi khng c khng hong M, v th hai l s eo hp ca th trng ti chnh dn n eo hp th trng nhp khu hng ha, nhu cu

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v hng xut khu ca Vit Nam gim i. M l mt nn kinh t 70% tiu dng. Mt khi m ngi tiu dng M tht cht hu bao, khng cn vung tin chi tiu mua sm t, tivi, t lnh, thc phm... th cc nn kinh t da ch yu vo ngun li t xut khu chc chn s gp rt nhiu kh khn. T thng 9 nm 2008, tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh v suy thoi kinh t ton cu bt u th hin trong hot ng xut khu ca cc doanh nghip Vit Nam. Hu ht cc mt hng xut khu ng lot gim gi mnh, c bit mt hng du th, nng sn, thy snTrong hai thng cui nm, lng n hng t i tc nc ngoi ca nhiu ngnh hng b hy b hoc st gim, tiu biu nh dt may gim khong 20% - 30% v s n hng v gi, thy sn gim khong 30% n hng 5.2 Vn u t: Di tc ng ca khng hong, chi ph vn t v th trng xut khu c kh nng b thu hp nn dng vn u t chy vo Vit Nam c kh nng s gim st. Thm vo , hu ht cc d n u t v phn n vay thng chim mt t phn rt ln trong tng vn u t nn khi m cc t chc ti chnh ang gp kh khn lm cho nhiu hp ng vay vn s khng c k kt hoc khng th gii ngn. Nhn nhn gc ton cu, phn ln cc cng ty c vn u t trc tip vo Vit Nam l cc tp on a quc gia vi hot ng trn ton cu. Do cc cng ty ny cng khng nm ngoi tc ng ca khng hong, trc tnh hnh cc cng ty dn ct gim u t, thm ch rt vn gii nguy cho cng ty m lm cho mt lng khng nh USD ra khi Vit Nam. Hn na do nhu cu tiu th st gim nn vic gii ngn vn s chm li ng k. Vit Nam c khong 2 triu ngi sng hi ngoi trong c 1.3 triu ngi ang sinh sng M - ci ni ca cuc khng hong hin ti. Trong thi bui sn xut b ct gim, mt s ngi c kh nng b mt vic lm hay ch t l thu nhp b gim st. Do lng kiu hi v Vit Nam cng suy gim nhiu. 5.3 Vic lm

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Kinh t th gii chao o hnh thnh cn lc sa thi vi tc ly lan nhanh chng. Nhiu doanh nghip, tp on sng s phi ng ca cc nh my, ct gim nhn cng, rt vn u t hu qu l theo bo co ca ILO Cc xu hng vic lm ton cu (GET) 2009 a ra ba kch bn theo tnh trng tht nghip ton cu trong nm 2009 so vi nm 2007 c th gia tng trong khong t 18 triu, 30 triu cho ti hn 50 triu ngi lao ng mt vic nu tnh hnh tip tc xu i. Nhiu ngi cho rng cuc khng hong ti chnh ang tm xa, nh hng ca n n Vit Nam s khng ln. Tuy nhin, trn phng din ny, khi xt v th trng lao ng trong nc, chng ta cng cn nhn nhn mt cch tnh to. Mt thc t khng th ph nhn ang din ra Vit Nam l tnh trng d tha lao ng gin n nhng ang rt thiu lao ng c trnh chuyn mn, c kinh nghim qun l. Trong giai on kh khn nh hin nay, nhng lao ng gin n s l nhng ngi u tin nm trong danh sch ct gim. ng thi Vit Nam cng xut khu mt lng ln lao ng nn vi tnh trng ct gim sn xut nh hin nay s ngi i xut khu lao ng cng gim ng k.

Li kt:

Thng qua vic nghin cu v nguyn nhn su xa ca khng hong ti chnh 2008, ta c th a ra nhng gii php kh thi cho khng hong ng thi thy c vai tr v cng quan trng t pha nh qun l ni chung v nh u t ni ring- nhng ngi a ra nhng quyt nh thiu cn nhc do qu tin tng vo cc cng ty xp hng tn dng. V mt li khuyn l nhng gim c ti chnh trong tng lai cn phi c o to k lng v bi bn hn na trong ngh thut phn tch tn dng a ra nhng quyt nh tht chnh xc gp phn bnh n th trng.