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TNG QUAN
Tun th 8 lin tip NHNN ht rng trn OMO. Vic ht rng c thc
hin ch yu trong 3 phin giao dch cui tun. Khi lng ht rng trong tun
va ri gim so vi tun trc nhng vn mc kh cao (14.000 t ng).
Nh vy, trong 2 thng tr li y, NHNN ht rng v gn 100.000 t ng
trn th trng OMO. Con s ny xp x vi lng tin NHNN bm ra ti
cp vn cho mt s ngn hng (khong 70.000 t ng) cng nh mua vo 1 t
USD ci thin d tr ngoi hi (21.000 t ng).
T gi tng t bin trong phin cui tun. Sng ngy 17/06, gi USD mua
vo - bn ra theo biu nim yt ca cc ngn hng thng mi ng lot tng
mnh, ln mc cao nht trong gn hai thng qua. Hin chng ti cha xc nh
c nguyn nhn khin t gi bt ng tng tr li nhng nhiu kh nng l do
thng tin tng trng tn dng bng ngoi t m NHNN cng b cho n ngy
10/06 t trn 22%.
HOT NG TH TRNG M
Tun th 8 lin tip NHNN ht rng trn OMO. Tun va qua l tun th 8 lin tip NHNN tin hnh ht
rng trn th trng OMO. Vic ht rng c thc hin ch yu trong 3 phin giao dch cui tun. Khi
lng ht rng trong tun va ri gim so vi tun trc nhng vn mc kh cao (14.000 t ng). Nh
vy, trong 2 thng tr li y, NHNN ht rng v gn 100.000 t ng trn th trng OMO. Con s ny
xp x vi lng tin NHNN bm ra ti cp vn cho mt s ngn hng (khong 70.000 t ng) cng
nh mua vo 1 t USD ci thin d tr ngoi hi (21.000 t ng). Chnh sch iu hnh cung tin mt
cch thn trng vn ang c NHNN duy tr m bo tng phng tin thanh ton trong nm 2011
mc 15-16% nh ch th ca Th tng Chnh ph.
Din bin th trng OMO tun t 13/06 n 17/06/2011
T ng
T ng
10000
8000
8000
4000
5000
23/05-27/05
3447
(5,000)
30/05-03/06
(2,737)
06/06-10/06
13/06-17/06
1415
0
13.06.2011
14.06.2011
15.06.2011
16.06.2011
17.06.2011
(10,000)
-5000
-5000
-5000
(15,000)
(14,138)
-7000
-10000
-11000
(20,000)
-11000
(17,668)
(20,334)
-15000
S ht v
S y ra
(25,000)
Li sut lin ngn hng n nh mc thp. Tun va qua l tun th 4 lin tip li sut lin ngn hng
c din bin tch cc. Hu nh li sut n nh mc thp tt c cc k hn: k hn qua m ph bin
mc 13-13,5%; k hn 1 tun t 14,5-15%; k hn 2 tun t 15-15,5%.
Li sut u thu TPCP gim- tn hiu i u cho mt bng li sut. Phin u thu TPCP mi y nht
(ngy 16/06/2011) tip tc cho thy s thnh cng khi hu ht khi lng gi thu bn ht vi mc li
sut gim kh mnh so vi phin u thu trc. C th, c 4.900 t ng TPCP ti cc k hn 2 nm, 3
nm v 5 nm c bn ht vi li sut trng thu gim mnh 0,4% xung mc 12,3%. iu ny tip tc
cng c nhn nh ca BVSC trong cc bn tin trc v vic li sut nhiu kh nng qua vng nh v
ang c chiu hng gim xung. Ngoi ra, vic c mt khi lng ln TPCP o hn trong thi gian gn
y ang to ra trng thi thanh khon tt cho mt s ngn hng v to p lc cc ngn hng ny c nhu
cu c cu tin vo cc t pht hnh TPCP mi. y l l do ch yu l gii cho s thnh cng lin tip ca
cc phin u thu gn y. Chng ti d bo vi lm pht gim dn trong cc thng ti, li sut u thu
TPCP ni ring v mt bng li sut ni chung c th s cn tip tc gim trong thi gian ti.
TH TRNG NGOI HI
T gi tng t bin trong phin cui tun. Sng ngy 17/06, gi USD mua vo - bn ra theo biu nim
yt ca cc ngn hng thng mi ng lot tng mnh, ln mc cao nht trong gn hai thng qua. Gi USD
bn ra ca Ngn hng Thng mi C phn Ngoi thng Vit Nam (Vietcombank) mc 20.800 VND,
mc cao nht k t ngy 22/4/2011; mc gi mua vo cng ln 20.700 VND. So vi phin ngy 16/06, t
gi VND/USD ghi nhn mc tng l 100 VND - mc t bin trong thi gian gn y. Ti cc ngn hng
thng mi khc, gi USD mua vo - bn ra cng ph bin l 20.700 - 20.800 VND. y cng l ln u tin
sau khong mt thng qua t gi ca cc ngn hng thng mi cao hn mc t gi bnh qun lin ngn
hng.
Gi USD t do leo thang phin cui tun. Cng vi tng ca t gi trong h thng ngn hng, t gi
ngoi th trng t do cng c biu hin leo thang tr li khi t mc 20.730 VND/USD trong phin cui
tun, tng 130 ng so vi cc phin trc .
Hin chng ti cha xc nh c nguyn nhn khin t gi bt ng tng tr li nhng nhiu kh nng l do
thng tin tng trng tn dng bng ngoi t m NHNN cng b cho n ngy 10/06 t trn 22%. Con s
ny tng thm 3% so vi con s 18,9% m Thng c NHNN Nguyn Vn Giu cng b vo ngy 23/05.
Nu cc con s trn l thng nht v chun xc th chng cho thy tn dng ngoi t vn ang tip tc tng
kh nhanh bt chp vic NHNN tng t l DTBB i vi tin gi ngoi t trong thi gian gn y v iu
ny c th gy sc p gim gi VND trong thi gian ti. Tuy nhin, chng ti vn bo lu quan im t gi
s vn n nh trong ngn hn v s ch c th gp mt s ri ro nh s suy gim ca dng vn nc ngoi
hay cc hp ng tn dng ngoi t o hn vo thi im cui nm.
Din bin gi USD t do
VND/USD
20750
20700
20650
20600
20550
20500
20450
17/06/2011
16/06/2011
15/06/2011
14/06/2011
13/06/2011
12/06/2011
11/06/2011
10/06/2011
09/06/2011
08/06/2011
07/06/2011
06/06/2011
05/06/2011
04/06/2011
03/06/2011
02/06/2011
01/06/2011
20400
TH TRNG S CP
Kt qu u thu tri phiu Chnh ph trong thi gian gn y
GT
cho
thu (t
ng)
GT u
thu (t
ng)
GT
trng
thu (t
ng)
T l
trng
thu
(%)
LS u thu (%)
LS
trng
thu
(%)
S
V
tgia
Tn TCPH
K
hn
(nm)
02/06/2011
KBNN
1,000
5,050
1,000
100%
12.90 13.70
13.00
12
02/06/2011
KBNN
1,000
4,865
1,000
100%
12.90 15.20
13.00
14
07/06/2011
VDB
100
250
0%
12.80
12.90-13.20
12.80
07/06/2011
VDB
10
600
790
600
100%
12.20
12.10-13.00
12.20
09/06/2011
KBNN
1,500
8,995
1,500
100%
12.30-16.00
12.70
18
09/06/2011
KBNN
1,500
8,730
1,500
100%
12.50-13.49
12.65
16
10/06/2011
VDB
2,000
4,220
1,820
91%
12.50-13.20
12.70
10/06/2011
VDB
10
1,500
1,510
325
22%
11.90-13.50
12.00
10/06/2011
NHCSXH
1,500
1,500
1,500
100%
12.90-13.20
13.20
10/06/2011
NHCSXH
500
900
500
100%
12.70-13.50
13.10
16/06/2011
KBNN
2,000
3,205.8
1,906
95%
11.85-13.20
12.42
16/06/2011
KBNN
2,000
6,080
2,000
100%
11.80-13.00
12.30
15
16/06/2011
KBNN
1,000
4,954.5
1,000
100%
11.80-13.00
12.30
15
Ngy
LS trn
(%)
u thu TPCP ca KBNN tip tc thnh cng vi t l cao. Phin u thu TP k hn 2 nm, 3 nm
v 5 nm ca KBNN vi tng gi tr cho thu l 5.000 t ng t t l trng thu 98,12%. (1) Chng ti
cho rng lc cu t cc ngn hng l l do chnh khin th trng s cp tip tc si ng. S lng cc
n v tham gia rt ln, c phin ln ti 15 n v. T l u thu/cho thu i vi k hn 2 nm, 3 nm
v 5 nm ln lt l 160%, 304% v 495%. Thanh khon ca cc ngn hng tng i di do trong thi
gian gn y (li sut lin ngn hng lin tc n nh mc thp), mt lng ln TPCP s o hn trong
thi gian ti, cng vi vic room tn dng 20% nhm kim ch lm pht ti mt s ngn hng sp kch
trn v thi hn 30/6 cc NH gim d n tn dng phi sn xut xung 22% ang n gn u l nhng
l do khin cc ngn hng la chn mua vo tri phiu, l knh u t vi an ton cao, vi mc li sut
chp nhn c. Nhiu ngn hng ln c ngun tin t tri phiu o hn cng gim vic cho vay trn th
trng lin ngn hng, m tp trung vo th trng TP do e ngi ri ro. Bn cnh , mt s Qu u t v
Cty Chng khon cng c nhu cu u t TPCP trong thi im ny. Mt mt l b p cc khon TP
o hn. Mt khc l do h nhn thy xu hng gim ca li sut s c cng c trong thi gian ngn sp
ti, do vy, tranh th mua vo TPCP thi im hin nay vi chi ph thp v bn li trn th trng th
cp vi gi cao hn trong thi gian t 3 6 thng ti dng nh l mt quyt nh u t hiu qu. (2) Li
sut trng thu vi TP k hn 2 nm, 3 nm v 5 nm ln lt l 12,42%, 12,30% v 12,30%. y l mt
mc li sut gim rt nhanh, gim n 40 v 35 im c bn (TP k hn 3 nm v 5 nm) so vi phin ca
tun trc mt ln na khng nh xu th h nhit ca mt bng li sut.
D bo cc phin u thu trong thi gian ti. Chng ti cho rng cc phin u thu trong tun ti s
vn tip tc si ng do nhiu ngn hng vn cha mua lng TPCP theo k hoch. Cu TP qu ln
ca cc n v ny, cng vi ngun hng 3 5 nm rt khan him trn th trng th cp cng s khin
KBNN c l do hp l tip tc h li sut trng thu.
TH TRNG TH CP
Tng hp giao dch Outright trn HNX trong tun
STT
Nhm
KH
(nm)
K hn
cn li
(nm)
1-3
0.8
1-3
M TP
TCPH
Coupon
(%)
Gi GD
(ng)
Tng
KLGD
Tng
GTGD
(t ng)
YTM
(%)
Ngy GD
Ngy PH
Ngy H
QHB1012015
23/03/2010
23/03/2012
VDB
12.1
98,490
500,000
50.633
14.1
14/06/2011
0.8
QHB1012020
12/04/2010
12/04/2012
VDB
11.8
98,208
1,000,000
100.271
14.1
14/06/2011
1-3
0.9
TB1012034
26/04/2010
26/04/2012
KBNN
11.3
98,264
500,000
49.904
13.5
14/06/2011
1-3
1.5
CPB071245
19/12/2007
19/12/2012
KBNN
8.65
94,230
750,000
73.854
13.0
15/06/2011
1-3
1.5
CPD071246
26/12/2007
26/12/2012
KBNN
8.65
94,157
263,150
25.844
13.0
14/06/2011
1-3
1.6
CPB0813005
17/01/2008
17/01/2013
KBNN
8.5
93,755
1,500,000
145.838
13.0
14/06/2011
1-3
1.6
VDB111006
28/01/2011
28/01/2013
VDB
11.2
96,938
1,000,000
101.142
13.3
13/06/2011
1-3
2.6
TD1114005
28/01/2011
28/01/2014
KBNN
11.1
97,504
300,000
30.529
12.2
16/06/2011
1-3
2.6
TD1114005
28/01/2011
28/01/2014
KBNN
11.1
106,895
500,000
55.530
8.0
13/06/2011
10
1-3
2.6
VDB111007
28/01/2011
28/01/2014
VDB
11.3
95,839
1,000,000
100.08
13.2
13/06/2011
11
1-3
2.7
VDB111016
11/02/2011
11/02/2014
VDB
11.3
107,453
850,000
94.572
8.0
13/06/2011
12
3-5
4.7
VDB111017
11/02/2011
11/02/2016
VDB
11.5
112,995
1,300,000
151.931
8.0
13/06/2011
13
3-5
4.9
TD1116026
9/05/2011
9/05/2016
KBNN
13.2
102,741
500,000
52.0555
12.4
15/06/2011
14
5 - 10
8.1
CP4_1004
30/07/2004
30/07/2019
VDB
87,404
1,000,000
95.27
11.5
13/06/2011
15
5 - 10
8.1
CP4A3104
30/07/2004
30/07/2019
VDB
87,404
1,000,000
95.27
11.5
13/06/2011
16
5 10
9.4
TP4A2705
21/10/2005
21/10/2020
VDB
9.25
87,605
740,000
69.254
11.5
13/06/2011
17
5 10
9.6
TP4A0206
20/01/2006
20/01/2021
VDB
9.25
87,405
1,900,000
173.052
11.5
13/06/2011
14,603,150
1,465.03
TNG CNG
3 - 5 nm
5 - 10 nm
Trn 10 nm
3,000
13/06 - 17/06
56.5%
Tng KLGD
30,000,000
2,741
29.5%
13.9%
2,500
25,000,000
2,087
2,000
06/06 - 10/06
1.4% 7.8%
47.6%
43.2%
20,000,000
1,465
1,500
15,000,000
1,000
1,000
30/05 - 03/06
27.2%
41.9%
30.9%
10,000,000
500
5,000,000
23/05 - 27/05
25.2%
74.8%
23/05 27/05
30/05 03/06
06/06 10/06
13/06 17/06
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
% GD nh u t nc ngoi
13/06-17/6
23/05-27/05
02/05-06/05
04/04-08/04
14/03-18/03
21/02-25/02
24/01-28/01
03/01-07/01
13/12-17/12
22/11-26/11
01/11-05/11
11/10-15/10
20/09-24/09
30/08-01/09
09/08-13/08
19/07-23/07
26/06-02/07
07/06-11/06
17/05-21/05
26/04-29/04
05/04-09/04
15/03-19/03
22/02-26/02
25/01-29/01
04/01-08/01
Giao dch ca khi ngoi chim gn 17% tng GTGD. Trong thi gian va qua, Chnh ph s dng
hng lot cc chnh sch nh nng t l d tr bt buc vi tin gi ngoi t, h trn li sut huy ng
ngoi t, nhm n nh th trng ngoi hi. Tuy nhin, t gi USD trn th trng t do t bin leo
thang cui tun ny khin cc nh TNN c nhng nghi ngi nht nh ca i vi th trng VN.
Li sut TPCP k hn 1
nm (%)
31/03/2011
29/04/2011
5/27/2011
3/06/2011
9/06/2011
Tun
u
tun
(%)
Cui
tun
(%)
Chnh
lch
(%)
K
hn 13 nm
(%)
K hn
1-5
nm
(%)
K hn
1-10
nm
(%)
23/05-27/05
13.43
13.32
-0.11
-0.04
0.05
0.06
30/05-03/06
13.32
13.07
-0.26
-0.20
-0.15
0.00
06/06-10/06
13.06
12.92
-0.13
0.07
0.02
-0.06
13/06-17/06
12.92
12.64
-0.27
-0.60
-0.60
0.16
Li sut TPCP ngn hn v trung hn gim mnh trong khi tng nh k hn di. Li sut TPCP k
hn 1 nm, 3 nm v 5 nm gim trung bnh 27 im, 60 im v 60 im, TP k hn 10 nm tng nh 16
im. ng cong li sut tip tc c hnh dng dc xung, TP k hn ngn c li sut ln hn TP k hn
di, tuy nhin mc chnh lch gia li sut k hn ngn v di gim dn. Bc tranh lm pht c
phn ti sng hn khi m cc ba yu t lm nh hng ln n ch s CPI l nhm hng lng thc, thc
phm (tng 3% trong thng 5), nhm hng nh v vt liu xy dng (tng 3,1%), v nhm hng giao
thng (tng 2,67%) u ghi nhn chng nht nh trong thng ny. a phn cc mt hng lng
thc, thc phm trn th trng (ngoi tr mt hng tht ln tng gi kh nhiu do dch bnh) u ng
gi, thm ch gim nh so vi thng trc. Nhm hng nh v vt liu xy dng cng khng cn tng gi
na v phn ln cc d n bt ng sn cha th trin khai tip c do thiu vn khi m thi hn 30/06
cc ngn hng gim d n tn dng bt ng sn v chng khon xung di 22% ang n gn. Nhm
hng giao thng cng ang tm thi n nh do gi xng du bn l cha tng ngay. Mc d gi du th
gii hin ang c mc st gim kh mnh, v mc 95$/thng, cc Cty kinh doanh xng du bt u c li,
nhng trong thi im hin ti, Chnh ph vn u tin tng thu nhp khu v b sung vn cho Qu bnh
n gi. Do vy, cc nh u t c th tm yn tm khi t nht, gi xng du bn l s khng tng trong thi
gian ti. Bn cnh , vic t gi lin tc st gim trong thi gian gn y cng s c tc ng tch cc ti
gi c nhm hng nhp khu. Theo d bo ca chng ti, CPI thng 6 s tip tc gim tc v nhiu kh
nng s quanh mc 1%. Li sut TPCP s vn tip tc gim nh trong thi gian ti, do nh hng ca th
trng s cp. Tuy nhin, chng ti k vng li sut TPCP s gim vng chc vo cui Qu III/2011.
Bin ng li sut TPCP v CPI YoY
2010, 2011
21
3.5
25
19
17
2.5
15
20
15
1.5
10
13
11
0.5
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
0
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
04.06.2011
04.05.2011
04.04.2011
04.03.2011
04.02.2011
04.01.2011
04.12.2010
04.11.2010
04.10.2010
04.09.2010
04.08.2010
04.07.2010
04.06.2010
04.05.2010
04.04.2010
04.03.2010
04.02.2010
04.01.2010
CPI MoM(lhs)
VIC: Tnh n ngy 31/05/2011, 99,9 triu la M TPC (tng ng 99,9% tng gi tr t pht
hnh) c tri ch chuyn i thnh 31.260.357 c phn ca Cng ty (vi mc gi chuyn i iu
chnh sau khi Cng ty pha long c phiu thng qua vic tng vn v chia c phiu thng nm 2010). 100
ngn la M tri phiu cn li c Vincom thanh ton gc v li cho tri ch theo iu khon mua
li theo quyn chn ca Bn pht hnh, do lng chuyn i t trn 90%. Nh vy, ton b 100 triu
la M TPC pht hnh ngy 15/12/2009 ca Cng ty CP Vincom vi k hn 5 nm, li sut c nh
6%/nm hon tt vic thanh ton trc ngy o hn, cng ty khng cn khon n di hn ny.
HAG : pht hnh thnh cng TP ra th trng quc t. Theo , HAG thu v 90 triu la M t t
pht hnh tri phiu thnh cng ti th trng Singapore, v s tin ny s c u t ch yu cho cc d
n thy in v trng cao su ti Vit Nam v Lo. TP c k hn l 5 nm v mc li sut l 9,875%/nm.
Tin li s c thanh ton na nm mt ln, bt u ngy 20/11/2011 v kt thc vo ngy 20-5-2016. V
thi hn tr n, ng Sn cho bit HAGL s tr 20% vo nm th ba, 20% nm th t v 60% vo nm th
nm. Cng ty vn gi quyn mua li tri phiu sau 3 nm k t ngy hon tt t pht hnh.
T gi USD trn th trng t do t bin leo thang cui tun ny c th l mt trong nhng l do khin CDS k
hn 5 nm ca TPCP Vit Nam tip tc theo lang. Tnh n cui tun, CDS tng 3 im c bn so vi tun
trc, giao dch quanh mc 317 im.
CDS k hn 5 nm ca TPCP Vit Nam
410.00
390.00
370.00
350.00
330.00
310.00
290.00
270.00
250.00
230.00
6/4/2011
5/4/2011
4/4/2011
3/4/2011
2/4/2011
1/4/2011
12/4/2010
11/4/2010
10/4/2010
9/4/2010
8/4/2010
7/4/2010
6/4/2010
5/4/2010
4/4/2010
3/4/2010
2/4/2010
1/4/2010
210.00
TH TRNG TH GII
Li sut Tri phiu Chnh ph ca cc th trng ngy 17.06.2011 (%)
+/- so vi
tun
trc
2Y
+/- so vi
tun
trc
3Y
5Y
+/- so vi
tun
trc
+/- so vi
tun
trc
7Y
10Y
+/- so vi
tun
trc
+/- so vi
tun
trc
15Y
Vit Nam
12.36
-0.42
12.33
-0.46
12.32
-0.43
12.22
-0.22
12.04
-0.27
12.04
-0.28
Trung Quc
3.19
0.00
3.33
0.00
3.50
0.00
3.68
0.00
3.88
0.00
3.99
0.00
HongKong
0.479
0.06
0.79
0.13
1.46
0.10
2.04
0.15
2.44
0.17
2.74
0.14
Singapore
0.45
0.02
1.05
-0.01
2.30
0.02
2.67
0.02
2.91
0.01
Hn Quc
3.59
-0.02
3.62
0.04
3.89
0.01
4.25
-0.01
Nht Bn
0.171
-0.06
0.25
0.02
0.42
0.00
0.64
-0.02
1.12
-0.01
1.57
-0.02
Malaisia
3.21
0.01
3.50
0.01
3.93
-0.04
Philippin
4.60
0.08
5.13
0.01
5.53
0.10
5.95
0.00
6.55
0.08
Thi Lan
3.53
0.26
3.70
0.17
3.73
0.11
3.83
0.12
Indonesia
6.23
0.44
6.65
0.80
7.02
0.14
7.67
0.29
8.40
0.28
0.40
0.00
0.70
-0.01
1.54
-0.02
2.24
-0.02
2.95
-0.02
EU
1.50
-0.06
1.64
-0.07
2.15
-0.05
2.56
-0.04
2.95
-0.04
3.47
0.02
CDS k hn 5 nm 2010
450
400
300
350
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
0
50
0
-50
Vit Nam
Trung Quc
Indonesia
Thi Lan
-100
Vit Nam
Trung Quc
Philippin
Thi Lan
EU
Khuyn co s dng
Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co phn tch ny c xem xt cn trng, tuy nhin Cng ty C phn Chng khon
Bo Vit (BVSC) khng chu bt k trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo
co. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh phn tch trong bn tin cng c th c thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bo co
ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm khuyn co ngi c mua, bn hay nm gi chng khon. Ngi c
ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho.
Trn Hi Yn
ThS. Nguyn Th Hi Yn
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