Bi tp n thi cao hc Ngoi thng 2011- t 2

1.3. Mt s quy lut phn phi xc sut thng dng Bi 1(3.39-SBT): Kch thc chi tit l bnn pp chun vi =50 cm. Kch thc thc t ca cc chi tit khng nh hn 32 cm v khng ln hn 68 cm. Tm xc sut ly ngu nhin mt chi tit c kch thc: a) Ln hn 55 cm b) Nh hn 40 cm Bi 2 (3.42-SBT) Tin hnh 1000 php th c lp. P(A) = 0,75 trong mi php th. Tm xc sut ca s sai lch gia tn sut vi xc sut khng vt qu 0,02. Bi 3 (3.49-SBT) Tui th ca mt loi sn phm l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun vi trung bnh l 11 nm v lch chun l 2 nm. a) Nu quy nh thi gian bo hnh l 10 nm th t l sn phm phi bo hnh l bao nhiu. b) Nu mun t l sn phm phi bo hnh l 10% th phi quy nh thi gian bo hnh l bao nhiu. Bi 4 (NT2011) Trng lng X (n v: gam) ca sn phm do my t ng sn xut l mt bin ngu nhin phn phi chun N(100,1). Sn phm gi l t tiu chun nu trng lng ca n t t 98,04g n 101,96g. Tnh t l sn phm t tiu chun. Bi 5 (NT2003): Tui th mt loi sn phm lm ra l bin lng ngu nhin phn phi chun vi trung bnh 4,2 nm v lch chun l 1,5 nm. Bn c mt sn phm th li 100 ngn ng, song nu sn phm phi bo hnh th l 300 ngn ng. Vy tin li trung bnh khi bn mi sn phm l 30 ngn ng th phi quy nh thi gian bo hnh l bao nhiu? Bi 6 (NT2002) Chiu di ca chi tit my c lm ra (n v: cm) c phn b chun. Bit 65% s chi tit c sn xut c chiu di ln hn 20 v 8% s chi tit lm ra c chiu di hn 30. a) Nu chi tit c chp nhn c chiu di nh hn 25 th t l ph phm b loi l bao nhiu? b) Cn quy nh chiu di loi chi tit ti thiu l bao nhiu t l sn phm b loi nh hn 0,02.
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2.1. Mu ngu nhin Bi tp l thuyt: Cho X l bnn pp chun N(,2), t tng th lp mu ngu nhin kch thc n, v:
MS = 1 n 1 n 1 n ( X i X )2 ; S 2 = ( X i X ) 2 ; S *2 = ( X i m) 2 n 1 i =1 n i =1 n i =1

1) E ( MS) =

n 1 2 2 2 *2 2 ; E(S ) = ; E(S ) = n 2 ( X ) n ( X ) n N ( 0,1) ; T = T ( n 1) 2) X N , ; U = S n

chng minh rng

3) 2 = 4) 2 =

nS *2

2 ( n)
2 ( n 1)

( n 1) S 2

5) Gi s tng th bnn X A(p). T tng th lp mu ngu nhin W = (X1,X2,,Xn) Chng minh i) tn sut f = ii) Nu n>5 v

X
i =1

B (n, p )

p 1 p 1 < 0,3 th 1 p p n

f p ( f p) n p(1 p) f N p, = N (0,1) ; U = n Se( f ) p (1 p )

6) Cng vi mu trn, nu n100 th

U= f p ( f p) n = N (0,1) Se( f ) p (1 p )
X i N ( i , i2 ) i = 1, 2

7) Trong hai tng th c:

T hai tng th lp hai mu ngu nhin c lp kch thc n1, n2:

W1 = X 11 , X 12 ,..., X 1n1 X 1 , S12 W2
21 2 , X 22 ,..., X 2 n2 X 2 , S2

( =(X

Chng minh c:

(X
Do , chng minh c:

2 2 X 2 ) N 1 2 ; 1 + 2 1 n1 n2

U=

(X

X 2 ) ( 1 2 )

12
n1

2 2

N ( 0,1)

n2

8) Cng vi hai mu trn, n1>30, n2>30 th

U=

(X

X 2 ) ( 1 2 )

12
n1

2 2

N ( 0,1)

n2

9) Cng vi hai mu trn,

F=
2 S12 2 . 2 F (n1 1, n2 1) 2 S2 1

10) Trong hai tng th c:

X i A ( pi )

i = 1, 2

T hai tng th lp hai mu ngu nhin c lp kch thc n1, n2:

W1 = X 11 , X 12 ,..., X 1n1 f1 W2
21

( =(X

, X 22 ,..., X 2 n2 f 2

Nu n1>30, n2>30 th f1-f2 s phn phi xp x chun theo nh l gii hn trung tm vi cc tham s c trng:
E ( f1 f 2 ) = p1 p2 V ( f1 f 2 ) = p1 (1 p1 ) p2 (1 p2 ) + n1 n2

Do
U=

( f1 f 2 ) ( p1 p2 )
p1 (1 p1 ) p2 (1 p2 ) + n1 n2

s c phn phi xp x chun ha N(0,1). Bi 1 (6.19-SBT): o chiu cao ca 100 thanh nin t 18 tui n 22 tui tnh A, ta thu c bng s liu sau: Chiu cao 154158162166170174178(cm) 158 162 166 170 174 178 182 S TN 10 14 26 28 12 8 2 Hy xc nh chiu cao trung bnh, phng sai v lch chun ca mu ni trn?

Bi 2(6.24-SBT): iu tra doanh s hng thng ca 100 h kinh doanh mt ngnh hng, ta thu c bng s liu sau: Doanh s 10,1 10,2 10,4 10,5 10,7 10,8 10,9 11 11,3 11,4 (triu/thng) S h 2 3 8 13 25 20 12 10 6 1 Tm doanh s trung bnh v phn tn ca cc doanh s so vi doanh s trung bnh ca cc h ni trn. Bi 3. Mt mu ngu nhin kch thc n=64 c rt ra t tng th phn phi chun vi trung bnh l 50 v lch chun l 4. Tm xc sut trung bnh mu nm trong khong t 48,5 n 51,5. S: 0,9974 Bi 4: lch chun ca kch thc chi tit c c lng l 4 mm. Kch thc cc chi tit c sn xut l bnn pp chun song phi tp trung quanh gi tr 40 mm. Tm xc sut ly ngu nhin 4 chi tit kim tra th kch thc trung bnh ca chng nm trong khong 35 mm n 45 mm. S: 0,9876 Bi 5: Mt mu kch thc n c rt ra t tng th pp chun vi trung bnh l v lch chun l 10. Hy xc nh n sao cho: a) P(-10 < x < +10) = 0,954 b) P(-5 < x < +5) = 0,954 c) P(-2 < x < +2) = 0,954 S: n=4, n=16, n=100 Bi 4: Trng lng mt sn phm l bnn pp chun vi trung bnh l 20,5 v lch chun l 2. Ly nn 4 SF kim tra th vi xc sut 0,95, trng lng trung bnh ca chng sai lch so vi trng lng qui nh ti a l bao nhiu? S: 1,96 Bi 5: Hai mu ngu nhin kch thc 100 c rt ra t tng th c pp chun c cng trung bnh v phng sai tng ng l 50 v 40. a) Tm xc sut trung bnh ca hai mu sai lch nhau t nht l 2. b) Vi xc sut 0,95, phng sai mu 1 c th ln hn phng sai mu 2 t nht l bao nhiu ln? S: 0,0348; 0,899

Bi 6:T l tt nghip trung hc chung ca c nc l 70%. Vy mt trng c 800 hc sinh thi tt nghip th phi c ti thiu bao nhiu em th s c coi l bnh thng. Hy kt lun vi xc sut 0,95. S: 539 Bi 7: Ngi ta bit rng 40% cc gia nh H Ni c thu nhp hng nm nm trong khong t 600 USD n 1200 USD. Vy phi iu tra mt mu gm bao nhiu gia nh vi xc sut 0,95 t l cc gia nh c thu nhp trong khong ni trn sai lch so vi t l chung ca thnh ph khng qu 4%. S: 577 Bi 8: T l n ng v ph n ng h vic s dng cc bin php trnh thai l 0,52 v 0,65. Vy nu phng vn ngu nhin 400 n ng v 400 ph n v vn trn th xc sut t l n ng v ph n trong hai mu ni trn khc bit nhau qu 16% l bao nhiu? S: 0,1922 Bi 9: Bin ngu nhin pp theo quy lut khi bnh phng vi 10 bc t do. Hy tm cc gi tr a v b tha mn iu kin P(2>a) = 0,975 v P(a<2<b) = 0,95. S: a=3,247; b=20,483 Bi 10: Lp mu ngu nhin kch thc n=25 t tng th phn phi chun vi phng sai bng 24. Tm xc sut phng sai mu nm trong khong t 12,401 n 36,415. S: 0,925 Bi 11: Chiu cao ca thanh nin mt a phng l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun vi trung bnh l 170 cm v lch chun l 10 cm. Chn ngu nhin 31 thanh nin vng . a) Tm xc sut chiu cao trung bnh ca s thanh nin ni trn khng vt qu 172 cm. b) Tm xc sut lch chun ca chiu cao ca s thanh nin ni trn ln hn 15 cm. S: 0,8665; < 0,001 Bi 12: Gi s t l ngi dn mua bo him nhn th trong mt thnh ph l 25%.

a) Tm xc sut c trn 28% s ngi trong mt mu iu tra gm 120 ngi ca thnh ph ny mua bo him nhn th. b) Vn s dng mu 120 ngi ni trn, vi xc sut l 0,1 th tn sut mu ln hn so vi t l ca c tng th mt lng ti thiu l bao nhiu? Bi 13: Trng lng ng bao go xut khu l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun vi trung bnh (trng lng quy nh) l 50 kg v lch chun cho php l 0,5 kg. Nu t mt l hng xut khu em cn ngu nhin 16 bao b th vi xc sut 0,95 trng lng trung bnh ca chng ch c php sai lch so vi trng lng quy nh ti a l bao nhiu c th cho php xut khu l hng . S: 0,245 Bi 14: Kch thc chi tit khi gia cng l bnn pp chun vi lch chun cho php l 0,1 cm. Nu t mt l chi tit mi c gia cng em kim tra ngu nhin 10 chi tit th vi xc sut 0,99 lch chun ti a ca chng c th bng bao nhiu c th c th kt lun rng l chi tit l t tiu chun. S: 0,155 2.2. Bi ton c lng Bi 1: Chng minh rng: a) trung bnh mu X l LKC, hiu qu nht ca k vng ton ca bnn pp chun. b) tn sut mu f l LKC, hiu qu nht ca xc sut p ca bnn pp A(p). c) lch bnh phng trung bnh MS l L chch ca phng sai 2. d) S2, S*2 l LKC ca 2. Bi 2: Hai mu kch thc n=3 v n=4 c rt ra t mt tng th phn phi A(p). a) Hy chng t rng cc tn sut mu f1 v f2 u l cc c lng khng chch ca p. b) c lng no hiu qu hn? Tm hiu qu ca f2 so vi f1. c) Trong lp cc c lng tuyn tnh f1 + (1-)f2, hy tm mt c lng hiu qu nht ca p. Bi 3: Doanh s ca mt ca hng l bnn pp chun vi lch chun l 2 triu/thng. iu tra ngu nhin doanh s ca 600 ca hng c quy m

tng t nhau tm c doanh s trung bnh l 8,5 triu. Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng doanh s trung bnh ca cc ca hng thuc quy m . Bi 4: Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng xng hao ph trung bnh cho mt t chy t A n B nu chy th 30 ln trn on ng ny ngi ta ghi nhn c lng xng hao ph nh sau: Lng xng hao ph (lt) S ln tng ng 9,6-9,8 3 9,8-10,0 5 10,0-10,2 10 10,2-10,4 8 10,4-10,6 4 n=30 Bit lng xng hao ph l bnn tun theo quy lut chun. Bi 5: nh mc thi gian gia cng mt chi tit my, ngi ta theo di ngu nhin qu trnh gia cng 25 chi tit v thu c s liu nh sau: Thi gian gia cng (pht) S chi tit my tng ng 1 15-17 3 17-19 4 19-21 12 21-23 3 23-25 2 25-27 n=25 Hy c lng thi gian gia cng trung bnh ca mt chi tit my vi tin cy 95%. Gi thit thi gian gia cng chi tit l bnn phn phi chun. Bi 6: Nng sut ging ng A mt vng c bo ln qua 25 im thu hoch v c kt qu nh sau: Nng sut (t/ha) S im thu hoch 2 7 7 9 12 11 3 13 1 17 n=25

Vi tin cy 95%, hy tnh nng sut trung bnh ti thiu ca vng ny, bit rng nng sut ng ca vng ny l bnn tun theo quy lut chun. Bi 7: Trong t vn ng bu c tng thng, ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 1600 c tri, th c bit 960 ngi trong s s b phiu cho ng c vin A. Vi tin cy 99%, ng c vin A s chim c ti thiu bao nhiu phn trm s phiu bu? Bi 8: Li sut c phiu mt cng ty trong vng 5 nm qua l 15%, 10%, 20%, 7%, 14%. Vi tin cy 90%, hy c lng phn tn ca li sut c phiu ca cng ty . Bit li sut c phiu l bnn phn phi chun. Bi 9: nh gi tr lng c hin c trong h, ngi ta nh bt 2000 con c, nh du ri th xung h. Sau bt li 400 con th thy 80 con c du. a) Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng tr lng c hin c trong h. b) Nu mun sai s ca c lng gim i mt na th ln sau phi nh bt bao nhiu con c. Bi 10: iu tra ngu nhin thanh nin 40 h gia nh ti mt bn min ni c 150 h gia nh th thy c 10 h ngho. Vi tin cy 0,95, hy c lng s h ngho ca bn . Bi 11: Trng lng (X) mt loi chi tit l mt bin lng ngu nhin tun theo quy lut chun vi X=1,2 kg. Phi chn t nht bao nhiu chi tit iu tra, nu mun chnh xc ca c lng l 0,3 v tin cy ca c lng l 95%. Bi 12 (NT2011): iu tra doanh s hng thng ca cc h kinh doanh mt loi hng vng A, ta c bng s liu sau: Doanh s (n v: triu ng) 19 20 21 22 23 24 S h tng ng 12 18 25 25 11 10 Bit rng doanh s hng thng l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun. a) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng doanh s trung bnh hng thng ca cc h kinh doanh mt hng ny ca vng A. b) Vi tin cy 95%, nu mun sai s ca c lng gim i mt na th phi iu tra thm mt mu kch thc t nht bng bao nhiu?

c) Doanh s hng thng ca cc h kinh doanh mt hng ny vng B (k hiu XB) c phng sai l 2. iu tra ngu nhin 101 i l vng B, hy
B

tnh xc sut
2

( X
i =1

101

Bi

X B ) t nht bng 248,68.

2

Cho: P[ (100)<124,34]=0,95; P[2(100)<74,22]=0,025. Bi 13 (NT 2007) Hai my A v B cng sn xut mt loi sn phm. T l ph phm ca my A l 5%. a) Kim tra 150 sn phm ca my B thy c 9 ph phm. Hy xc nh t l ph phm ti a ca my B vi tin cy 95%. b) Vi xc sut 0,95 cho bit nu kim tra 100 sn phm do my A sn xut th s c ti a bao nhiu ph phm?
2.3. Kim nh gi thuyt thng k

Bi 1: nh mc thi gian hon thnh mt sn phm l 14 pht. C cn thay i nh mc khng, nu theo di thi gian hon thnh sn phm 25 cng nhn, ta thu c bng s liu sau: Thi gian sn xut S cng nhn tng ng mt sn phm (pht) 10-12 2 12-14 6 14-16 10 16-18 4 18-20 3 n=25 Yu cn kt lun vi mc ngha 0,05, bit rng thi gian hon thnh mt sn phm l bnn phn phi chun. Bi 2: Ngi ta th nghim hai phng php chn nui g khc nhau. Sau mt thng kt qu tng trng nh sau: Phng php S g c Mc tng trng lch chun (kg) theo di trung bnh (kg) I 100 1,1 0,2 II 150 1,2 0,3 Vi mc ngha 0,05, c th kt lun phng php II hiu qu hn phng php I hay khng? Gi thit mc tng trng g phn phi chun.

Bi 3: L hng tiu chun xut khu nu t l ph phm khng vt qu 3%. Kim tra ngu nhin 400 sn phm ca l hng ny thy c 14 ph phm. Vi mc ngha 0,05 c cho php l hng xut khu c khng. Bi 4: Thng k s tai nn lao ng ti hai x nghip c cc s liu sau: X nghip S cng nhn S tai nn lao ng I 200 20 II 800 120 Vi mc ngha 0,05 hy kt lun xem cht lng ca cng tc bo h lao ng ti hai x nghip trn c khc nhau khng? Bi 5: so snh chnh xc ca hai thit b o lng ngi ta tin hnh ly mu v thu c kt qu sau: Thit b A Thit b B o 25 ln Thit b B Phng sai sai s =14,5 Phng sai sai s = 17,2 Gi thit rng sai s o lng l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun. Vi mc ngha 0,05 c th cho rng chnh xc ca hai thit b l nh nhau c khng. Bi 6: Bt m c ng bao bng my t ng c trng lng ng bao theo quy nh l 16 kg v lch chun l 1,2 kg. Ly ngu nhin 25 bao bt kim tra tm c trng lng ng gi trung bnh ca chng l 16,5 kg. a) Vi mc ngha 0,05 c cn dng my iu chnh hay khng? b) Tm xc sut mc sai lm loi 2 nu gi tr thc ca trng lng ng gi trung bnh l 15,5 v 16,6. Bi 7: Mc hao ph xng (X) cho mt loi xe t chy trn on ng AB l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun c k vng ton l 50 lt. Do ng c tu sa li, ngi ta cho rng mc hao ph xng trung bnh gim xung. Quan st 30 chuyn xe chy trn ng AB ta thu c bng s liu sau y: Mc xng hao ph (lt) S chuyn xe 5 48,5 49,0 10 49,0 49,5 10 49,5 50,0 3 50,0 50,5 2 50,5 51,0

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a) Vi mc ngha 0,05, hy kt lun v kin nu trn. b) Tm xc sut mc sai lm loi hai nu mc xng hao ph trung bnh thc s l 48 lt. Bi 8 (NT2006): Mc tiu hao xng/100 km ca xe A (XA) thuc Cng ty 3A l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun. iu tra ngu nhin mc tiu hao xng/100 km ca 100 xe loi trn, ngi ta thu c bng s liu sau: XA (lt) 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 S xe 5 10 15 20 29 10 6 5 a) Vi xc sut 95%, mc tiu hao xng ti thiu cho 100 km l bao nhiu? b) Trc y t l xe A tiu hao xng t nht 8 lt/100 km l 0,45. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit t l ny c ln hn trc y khng? Bi 9 (NT2008): Doanh thu (X- triu ng) ca cc ca hng bn in trong mt thng trong mt thng l bnn pp chun. iu tra ngu nhin 144 ca hng kinh doanh mt hng trn a phng A trong thng 2, ngi ta thu c cc s liu sau y:

xi = 2376;
i =1

144

(x x )
i =1 i

144

= 3575 .

a) T l cc ca hng cng loi trong ton quc c doanh thu t 20 triu ng/thng tr ln bng 42%. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit s khc bit v t l ny ca a phng A trong thng 2 so vi ton quc hay khng? Bit rng trong mu 144 ca hng ni trn c 58 ca hng c doanh thu t nht 20 triu/thng. b) Hy tm khong tin cy i xng cho mc doanh thu trung bnh vi h s tin cy 95%. c) Theo thng k, trc y phn tn () ca doanh thu/thng ca cc ca hng trn bng 5,2 triu. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit phn tn trong thng 2 c nh hn so vi trc y khng? d) T mu ngu nhin gm 169 ca hng kinh doanh mt hng tng t a phng B, ngi ta thu c sai s tiu chun mu bng 5,5. Vi mc ngha 5% hy cho bit phn tn ca doanh thu A c nh hn B hay khng? Doanh thu cc ca hng vng B cng l bin ngu nhin phn b chun. Bi 10 (NT2009): Nng sut mt ging la ti vng A l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun. Ngi ta thu hoch ngu nhin 100 khu rung, c s liu sau: Nng sut (tn/ha) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 S im thu hoch 8 13 22 24 15 10 8

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a) Trc y nng sut trung bnh ca ging la trn bng 3,8 tn/ha, vi mc ngha 5% hy cho bit nng sut c tng ln hay khng? b) Vi h s tin cy 95%, tm khong tin cy cho phng sai ca nng sut. c) Thu hoch ngu nhin 100 im vng B ngi ta tnh c nng sut trung bnh l 3,7 tn v lch tiu chun l 0,9 tn. Vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng nng sut ging la vng A ln hn nng sut vng B hay khng? Nng sut vng B cng l bnn pp chun. Bi 11: T l ph phm ca mt sn phm c sn xut trn dy chuyn A l 10%. a) Vi xc sut 0,95 hy cho bit nu kim tra 200 sn phm ca dy chuyn A th s c ti a bao nhiu ph phm. b) Kim tra 100 sn phm c sn xut trn dy chuyn B thy c 12 ph phm, vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng t l ph phm ca 2 dy chuyn l nh nhau. Bi 12: tm hiu tnh hnh tiu th sn phm trong mt tun ti cc i l sau mt t qung co, cng ty Y thu thp ngu nhin doanh thu bn hng 101 i l v c kt qu: Doanh thu (triu ng) 25 26 27 28 29 30 S i l 10 18 30 22 15 6 Gi s doanh s bn ca i l l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. a) Bit rng doanh thu bn hng trung bnh ca i l trc khi c t qung co l 25,5 triu ng. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit v hiu qu ca t qung co. b) Thng k doanh thu trc qung co ca 101 i l c chn ngu nhin, ngi ta thu c S2=3. Vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng doanh thu ca i l sau t qung co n nh hn cha?

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