BI TP XC SUT THNG K &

A. PHN XC SUT
Cu 1: Trn truyn hnh c tr chi nh sau: C 3 cnh ca, ng sau mt trong ba cnh ca l 1 mn qu ln. Ngi chi ch c quyn chn 1 ca duy nht. Sau khi ngi chi chn xong, ngi dn chng trnh s m 1 trong 2 ca cn li nhng ch m ca khng c qu. Sau ngi chi c quyn chn: hoc l gi ci ca mnh chn ban u hoc l i ly ci ca cha c m cn li. Nu bn l ngi chi th bn nn chn phng n no? Ti sao? Cu 2: Ba sinh vin cng lm bi thi. Xc sut lm c bi ca sinh vin A l 0,8; ca sinh vin B l 0,7; ca sinh vin C l 0,6. Tm xc sut ca cc bin c sau: a) C hai sinh vin lm c bi. b) Nu c hai sinh vin lm c bi. Tnh xc sut sinh vin A khng lm c bi? Cu 3: Theo thng k nm 2007 M c khong 40% cc v tai nn xe c gy cht ngi l do ngi li say ru. Gi s t l ngi say ru khi li xe l 4%. Hi vic say ru khi li xe lm tng kh nng gy tai nn cht ngi ln bao nhiu ln?

Cu 4: Mt k trm ly cp th ATM ca Roger. Th ny c m s PIN gm 4 ch s. Gi s tn trm bit c 2 ch s u tin l 3 v 5 nhng khng bit c 2 ch s cui cng. Do m PIN ng l s nm trong khong t 3500 n 3599. bo v khch hng, my ATM khng cho php nhp sai PIN qu 3 ln (ln th 4 tr i nhp sai b kha th). a) Tnh xc sut tn trm nhp ng s PIN trong vng 3 ln th ? b) Nu tn trm bit thm iu kin ch s PIN cui cng l 1 hoc 7 th xc sut hn pht hin ra s PIN ng ln th th 3 l bao nhiu ? Cu 5: C 3 x th cng bn vo mt con mi, mi ngi bn mt vin n vi xc sut bn trng ln lt l 0,6; 0,7; 0,8. Bit rng nu trng mt pht n th xc sut con th b tiu dit l 0,5; trng 2 pht th xc sut n b tiu dit l 0,8; trng 3 pht th chc chn n cht. a) Tnh xc sut con th b tiu dit. b) Tnh xc sut con th b trng 2 pht nu bit n b tiu dit.
1

Cu 6: Mt hp cha 3 ng xu ng cht: 2 ng xu loi A c mt mt hnh vi mt mt ch v mt ng xu loi B c c 2 mt hnh. Ngi ta ly ngu nhin t hp ra mt ng xu v gieo n 3 ln c lp. a) Tnh xc sut c 3 ln gieo u xut hin mt hnh. b) Bit rng c 3 ln gieo u xut hin mt hnh, tnh xc sut ng xu c ly ra l ng xu loi A.

Cu 7: Mt b thi c 20 cu hi. Sinh vin gii s tr li ng ht 20 cu. Sinh vin kh tr li ng 15 cu. Sinh vin trung bnh tr li ng 10 cu. T l sinh vin gii, kh, trung bnh ln lt l 10%, 30%, 60%. Mt sinh vin ln bt thm 3 cu t 20 cu trn. Gim kho thy anh ta tr li ng c 3 cu. Theo bn th sinh vin ny loi g? Cu 8: Gi s c mt loi bnh m t l ngi mc bnh l 1/1000 v mt loi xt nghim m ai mc bnh khi xt ra cng phn ng dng tnh nhng t l phn ng dng tnh nhm l 5% (tc l trong s nhng ngi khng b bnh c 5% s ngi th ra phn ng dng tnh). Hi khi mt ngi xt nghim b phn ng dng tnh th kh nng mc bnh ca ngi l bao nhiu? Cu 9: C 2 k trm b cnh st ui bt tr trn vo 1 m ng. Cnh st bt gi ton b m ng gm 60 ngi v dng my pht hin ni di (lie detector) iu tra xem ai l k trm. Bit rng i vi k trm xc sut b my tnh nghi c ti l 85% nhng i vi ngi v ti th xc sut b my nghi nhm c ti l 7%. Gi s X l mt nhn vt trong m ng b my nghi l c ti. Tnh xc sut X l k trm. Cu 10: Trc khi a sn phm ra th trng ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 200 khch hng v sn phm v thy c 34 ngi tr li s mua, 96 ngi tr li c th s mua, v 70 ngi tr li khng mua. Kinh nghim cho thy t l khch hng thc s s mua sn phm tng ng vi nhng cch tr li trn ln lt l 40%, 20% v 1%. a) Hy nh gi th trng tim nng ca sn phm . b) Trong s khch hng thc s mua sn phm c bao nhiu phn trm tr li s mua.

Cu 11: C ba hp thuc, hp I c 5 ng tt v 3 ng xu, hp II c 4 ng tt v 2 ng xu, hp III c 3 ng tt v 4 ng xu. Ly ngu nhin 1 hp v t rt ra 1 ng thuc th c ng tt. Tnh xc sut ng ny thuc hp II. Cu 12: Trong mt thnh ph c 70% dn c thch xem bng . Chn ngu nhin 10 ngi, tnh xc sut c: a) 5 ngi thch xem bng . b) t nht 2 ngi thch xem bng . Cu 13: Mt cu th ni ting v pht n c xc sut pht vo goal l 0,9. C ngi cho rng c 10 ln pht n th chc chn c 9 qu vo goal. iu khng nh ng? Tnh xc sut cu th c ng 9 ln vo goal trong 10 ln pht n. Cu 14: Mt ngi c 4 vin n. Xc sut bn trng mc tiu ca mi vin l 0,6. Ngi ny bn n khi hoc ht n hoc trng mc tiu th dng. Gi X l s vin n s bn. a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X. b) Tnh E(X), D(X) v Mod(X). Cu 15: C 3 th sn cng bn vo mt con th (mi ngi ch bn 1 vin). Xc sut cc th sn bn trng con th ln lt l 0,8; 0,7; v 0,4. Gi X l s vin n trng con th. a) Lp bng phn phi ca X. b) Tnh k vng, phng sai ca X. Cu 16: Mt bi kim tra trc nghim c 4 cu, mi cu c 5 phng n tr li trong ch c mt phng n tr li ng duy nht. C mt hc sinh lm bi kim tra ny bng cch chn ngu nhin mt phng n tr li. Gi X l s cu m hc sinh ny tr li ng. a) Lp bng phn phi ca X. b) Tnh k vng, phng sai ca X. Cu 17: Cho hai hp A v B, mi hp c 11 bi trong gm 6 bi , 5 bi xanh. Rt ngu nhin mt bi t hp A b vo hp B ri t hp B ly ngu nhin ra 2 bi. Gi X l s bi c trong 2 bi c rt ra. a) Tm lut phn phi ca X. b) Tnh k vng, phng sai, mod(X). Cho bit ngha?
3

Cu 18: Mt kin hng c 15 sn phm trong c 6 sn phm loi I, 9 sn phm loi II. a) Ly ngu nhin khng hon li 3 sn phm. Tm quy lut phn phi ca s sn phm loi I c trong 3 sn phm ly ra. b) T kin hng ly ngu nhin ra 2 sn phm khng hon li. Nu ly tip mt sn phm na th xc sut ly c sn phm loi II l bao nhiu?

Cu 19: Khi lng ca mt loi sn phm l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun, vi khi lng trung bnh l 20kg v lch chun l 0,2 kg. Sn phm c coi l t tiu chun nu c khi lng t 19,6 n 20,4 kg. a) Tnh t l sn phm t tiu chun. b) Nu chn c sn phm t tiu chun th s mua sn phm . Chn ngu nhin 5 sn phm. Tnh xc sut mua c 3 sn phm t tiu chun. Cu 20: Sn phm c ng thnh hp. Mi hp gm 10 sn phm, trong c 7 sn phm loi A. Ngi mua hng qui nh cch kim tra nh sau: T hp ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm, nu 3 sn phm loi A th nhn hp , ngc li th loi. Gi s kim tra 100 hp. a) Tnh xc sut khng qu 30 hp c nhn. b) Phi kim tra t nht bao nhiu hp xc sut c t nht 1 hp c nhn 95%. Cu 21: Cho bit im ca th sinh trong k thi tt nghip c phn phi chun N(62;49). Th sinh c xem l thi t khi c im t 60 tr ln trong thang im 100. Hy xc nh: a) T l sinh vin thi t. b) Sinh vin t loi A l sinh vin thuc vo nhm 10% sinh vin c s im cao nht. Tm s im nh nht cn c sinh vin t loi A. Bit rng im sinh vin c 2 s l thp phn. Cu 22: Tui th ca mt loi sn phm l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun vi tui th trung bnh 11 nm v lch chun l 2 nm. a) Nu qui nh thi gian bo hnh l 10 nm th t l bo hnh l bao nhiu? b) Nu mun t l sn phm phi bo hnh l 10% th phi qui nh thi gian bo hnh l bao nhiu nm?
4

Cu 23: Mt trm du lch bi bin c thu tu cano cho khch hng thu li. Hng ngy trm phi tr cho ch tu 520 ngn ng trn mi tu (ch tu khng cn bit tu c c khch hng thu hay khng ). Mi chic tu c trm cho khch hng thu li vi gi 980 ngn ng mi ngy. Qua 1 thi gian theo di s liu thng k, trm ghi nhn c s yu cu thu tu trung bnh mi ngy l 3,6. Trm du lch ny quyt nh thu thng xuyn 3 tu phc v li cho khch hng. a) Hy tm lut phn phi xc sut ca s tin li thu c trong mt ngy ca trm. Bit rng s yu cu ca khch hng thu tu ca trm trong mt ngy l i lng ngu nhin c quy lut phn phi xc sut Poisson. b) Nu da vo s tin li trung bnh thu c trong mt ngy ca trm quyt nh th trm nn thu thng xuyn 3 hay 4 tu ? Cu 24: Nc gii kht c ch t Si Gn i Vng Tu. Mi xe ch 1000 chai bia Si Gn, 2000 chai Coca, v 1500 chai nc tri cy. Xc sut mt chai mi loi b b trn ng i tng ng l 0,2%; 0,05% v 0,1%. Nu khng qu 1 chai b b th li xe c thng. a) Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 chai bia Si Gn b b. b) Tnh xc sut li xe c thng. c) Li xe phi ch t nht my chuyn xc sut c t nht mt chuyn c thng khng nh hn 0,9.

B. PHN THNG K Cu 25: Kho st v thu nhp ca mt s ngi trong mt cng ty, ngi ta thu c cc s liu sau y: Thu nhp (triu ng/thng) S ngi 5 6 5.5 12 6 20 6.5 34 7 30 7.5 16 8 12 9 10 10 4

a) Hy c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng ty vi tin cy 90%. b) Nu mun sai s c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng ty khng vt qu 200.000 ng/thng vi tin cy 99% th cn kho st thm t nht bao nhiu ngi na.
5

c) Nhng ngi c mc thu nhp trn 8 triu ng/thng l nhng ngi c thu nhp cao. Hy c lng s ngi c thu nhp cao vi tin cy 98% ( bit cng ty c tng cng 2000 nhn vin). d) Nu ni rng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng ty l 7 triu ng/thng th c ng tin cy ? Hy kt lun vi mc ngha 5%.

Cu 26: S liu thng k v doanh s bn ca mt siu th cho trong bng sau: Doanh thu (triu ng/ngy) 20 - 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 100 110 110 - 130

S ngy 5 10 20 25 25 15 10 8 3

a) Nhng ngy c doanh thu trn 90 triu ng l nhng ngy bn t. Hy c lng t l nhng ngy bn t siu th vi tin cy 96%. b) c lng doanh thu trung bnh ca mt ngy bn t siu th vi tin cy 95%. c) Trc y doanh thu bn trung bnh ca siu th l 65 triu ng/ngy. S liu bng trn thu thp c sau khi siu th p dng phng thc bn hng mi. Hi phng thc mi c lm tng doanh thu siu th (Cho g = 95% )? Cu 27: Quan st nng sut X (n v tn/ha) ca mt ging la th nghim trn mt s tha rung, ta c kt qu sau:

X (tn/ha) S tha rung

8 - 9 9 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 8 15 21 23 16 9 8
6

a) c lng nng sut trung bnh ca ging la th nghim trn vi tin cy 95%. b) Tha rung c nng sut X > 12 tn/ha c xp loi A. c lng t l tha rung loi A vi tin cy 95%. c) Vi ging la c, nng sut trung bnh l 10,5 tn/ha. Hi rng ging la th nghim c lm thay i nng sut trung bnh khng ? Kt lun vi tin cy 99%. Cu 28: iu tra mc chi tiu hng nm ca 100 cng nhn mt cng ty thu c s liu sau: Mc chi tiu (triu ng/nm) 15,6 16,0 16,4 16,8 17,2 17,6 18,0 S cng nhn 10 14 26 28 12 8 2

a. Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng: s cng nhn ca cng ty c mc chi tiu hng nm di 16 triu ng (bit cng ty c 1000 cng nhn). b. Nu nm trc mc chi tiu trung bnh mi cng nhn l 16 triu ng/ nm th vi mc ngha 0,05 c th cho tng mc chi tiu ca mi cng nhn nm nay cao hn nm trc khng? Gi thit mc chi tiu ni trn c phn phi chun.

Cu 29: Tin hnh kho st s go bn hng ngy ti mt ca hng, ta c:

Lng go(kg) S ngy

100 125 2

125 - 140 9

140 - 155 12

155 - 170 25

170 - 185 30

185 - 200 20

200 - 215 13

215 - 230 4

a) c lng s tin bn c trung bnh trong ngy vi tin cy 99%, bit gi go l 8000 ng/kg. b) Nhng ngy bn trn 200 kg l nhng ngy cao im. Hy c lng t l ngy cao im. c) Gi s ch ca hng cho rng trung bnh mi ngy bn khng qu 140 kg th tt hn l ngh bn. T s liu iu tra, ca hng quyt nh th no vi mc ngha 0,01. d) c lng t l ngy cao im vi chnh xc 5% th m bo tin cy bao nhiu ? Cu 30: Ti mt nng trng, iu tra kt qu s dng loi phn bn mi trn mt loi tri cy, ngi ta ly mt mu ngu nhin cn th v thu c s liu nh sau:
7

Khi lng (gam) S tri cy 45 55 55 60 60 65 65 70 70 75 75 - 85 10 35 75 130 35 15

a) Vi tin cy 96%, hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca loi tri cy trn ca nng trng. b) Trc kia khi lng trung bnh ca loi tri cy trn l 64 gam. Vi mc ngha 2%, hy xc nh gi xem loi phn bn mi c mang li hiu qu thc s hay khng? c) Ngi ta qui nh rng nhng tri cy c khi lng t 70 gam tr ln th c xp vo loi 1. Hy c lng t l tri cy loi 1 vi tin cy 95%. Cu 31: H thng bn v my bay online ca cng ty hng khng AP va c ci tin qui trnh v c theo di ghi nhn tnh trng hy v sau khi t ch. Kho st ngu nhin mt s ngy v nhn thy trong 169 ln t v th c 15 ln hy v. a) Vi tin cy 98%, hy c lng t l hy v sau khi t ch qua h thng. b) Mt ti liu c c trc khi ci tin h thng cho bit t l hy v sau khi t ch l 15%. Vi mc ngha 2%, hy kim nh xem h thng c ci tin ny c thc s lm thay i t l hy v khng? c) Nu mun php c lng t l hy v c tin cy 96% v chnh xc 4% th cn phi kho st thm bao nhiu ln t v na ?

Cu 32: Kim tra mt my sn xut sn phm t ng, kim tra vin m s ph phm do my sn xut trong mt s ngy ngu nhin trong nm v ghi nhn c mt bng s liu sau: S ph phm S ngy 04 59 10 14 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 32 3 6 12 20 17 14 9

a) Vi tin cy 96%, hy c lng s ph phm trung bnh trong mt ngy sn xut ca my ny. b) Ti liu lu tr nhng nm trc y cho bit s ph phm trung bnh trong mt ngy sn xut ca my ny l 17. Vi mc ngha 2%, hy cho bit kt qu kim nh tnh trng ca my nm nay nh th no ? c) My cn phi iu chnh khi pht hin c t 25 ph phm tr ln trong 1 ngy sn xut. Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng s ngy cn iu chnh ca my trong 1 nm ( gi s my hot ng u n 310 ngy trong 1 nm ). Cu 33: Sau khi tin hnh mt chin dch qung co, mt cng ty tin hnh kho st lng hng tiu dng v mt hng A ca 400 h gia nh mt thnh ph. Kt qu iu tra cho bng sau: Lng hng tiu dng (kg/thng) S h 0 02 24 46 68 8 10 10 12 25 40 85 120 80 30 20
9

Gi s thnh ph c 500.000 h. a) c lng t l h gia nh c tiu dng mt hng A ca thnh ph vi tin cy 96%. b) Lng hng tiu dng trung bnh v mt hng A trc khi tin hnh chin dch qung co ca ton thnh ph l 2100 tn/thng. Hy cho bit chin dch qung co ca cng ty c tc dng nh th no i vi mc tiu dng ca sn phm A ( kt lun vi mc ngha 2% ). Cu 34: Kho st mc tiu th in ca 400 h gia nh mt thnh ph ta c bng s liu sau: Lng in tiu th (KW/thng) S h 70 100 100 130 130 160 160 190 190 220 220 250 40 100 120 70 40 30

a) Hy c lng mc tiu dng in trung bnh ca mt h gia nh ca thnh ph vi tin cy 95%. b) Nhng h gia nh c mc tiu th in trn 190 KW/thng l nhng h tiu dng in cao. Hy c lng t l h tiu dng in cao ca thnh ph vi tin cy 96%. c) Nu mun c lng t l h tiu dng in cao ca thnh ph t c chnh xc l 3,5% v tin cy 98% th cn kho st mc tiu dng in ca bao nhiu h gia nh na ?

10