i

TRNG I HC TY NGUYN
KHOA NNG LM NGHP


LUN VN TT NGHIP

Tn Ti:
NG DNG CNG NGH GIS TRONG IU CH RNG
Th nghim ti khu rng t nhin huyn Tuy c, tnh Dk Nng


H v tn tc gi: Hong Trng Khnh
Ngnh hc: Qun l ti nguyn rng v Mi trng
Kho hc: 2003 - 2007






Dk Lk, thng 9 nm 2007

TRNG I HC TY NGUYN
KHOA NNG LM NGHIP


ii

LUN VN TT NGHIP


Tn ti:
NG DNG CNG NGH GIS TRONG IU CH RNG
Th nghim ti khu rng t nhin huyn Tuy c, tnh Dk Nng




Ging vin hng dn: PGS.TS. Bo Huy
H v tn tc gi: Hong Trng Khnh
Ngnh hc: Qun l ti nguyn rng v Mi trng
Kha hc: 2003 - 2007



k Lk, thng 09 nm 2007
LI CM N
hon thnh lun vn tt nghip, ti xin chn thnh cm n ti:
Tp th cc thy c gio trong Khoa Nng Lm Nghip tn tnh truyn t
kin thc cng nh hng dn nhng knh nghim thc t gip cho ti c c nhng
kin thc qu bu v nghnh ngh ca mnh cng nh gip ti c thm nhng nhng
k nng, nhng bi hc kinh nghim t thc t.
Ti xin chn thnh cm n n PGS.TS Bo Huy, ngi tn tnh gip v
hng dn ti hon thnh ti ny.
iii

Tp th lp Qun l ti nguyn rng v mi trng K2003 gn b v gip
ti trong sut qu trnh hc cng nh trong thi gian lm lun vn tt nghip.
Ban lnh o, cn b cng nhn vin Lm trng Qung Tn gip ti trong
qa trnh thu thp s liu c s, v hng dn ti nhng kinh nghim thc t.
Cng ng ngi dn trong bun Bon Bu N,x Qung Tn gip ti trong
qu trnh trong iu tra rng.
Gia nh v nhng ngi thn ca ti gip ti v mi mt ti c th
hon thnh c lun vn ny.
Xin chn thnh cm n
Bun Ma Thut, thng 9 nm 2007
Sinh vin


Hong Trng Khnh

MC LC
1 t vn ..................................................................................................... 7
2 Tng quan vn nghin cu ..................................................................... 9
2.1 Khi nim v h thng thng tin a l (GIS) ................................................. 9
2.2 nh ngha v iu ch rng .......................................................................... 10
2.3 Tnh hnh nghin cu v ng dng GIS trong qun l ti nguyn - mi
trng trn th gii .................................................................................................. 10
2.4 Tho lun v vn nghin cu .................................................................... 15
3 i tng nghin cu ................................................................................. 17
3.1 i tng nghin cu c th .......................................................................... 17
3.2 Tng quan v khu vc nghin cu ................................................................. 17
3.2.1 iu kin t nhin khu vc nghin cu ..................................................... 17
3.2.2 iu kin knh t - x hi khu vc nghin cu........................................... 21
4 Mc tiu - ni dung v phng php nghin cu ................................... 24
4.1 Mc tiu nghin cu v gii hn ca ti .................................................. 24
4.1.1 V mt l lun ............................................................................................ 24
4.1.2 V mt thc tin ......................................................................................... 24
4.2 Ni dung nghin cu ....................................................................................... 24
4.3 Phng php nghin cu ................................................................................ 25
4.3.1 Phng php lun tng qut ..................................................................... 25
iv

4.3.2 Phng php nghin cu c th: ............................................................... 25
4.3.3 Phn tch x l s liu - Hnh thnh b cng c phc v cng tc iu ch
rng: Error! Bookmark not defined.
5 Kt qu v tho lun .................................................................................. 34
5.1 nh gi kh nng ng dng cc loi nh v bn hin trng hin hnh
34
5.1.1 Phn tch - x l bn hin trng ........................................................... 34
5.1.2 nh gi chnh xc ca nh vin thm trong cng tc iu ch: ....... 36
5.2 Kt qu phn tch - x l s liu ........................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.2.1 Quan h tng trng ZD/ 5 nm theo D1.3: Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.2.2 Kt qu m hnh N/ D v N- 5 nm / D ca rng thng xanh ......... Error!
Bookmark not defined.
5.2.3 Kt qu xy dng m hnh ZM/D v ZM - 5 nm/ DError! Bookmark not
defined.
5.2.4 Kt qu phn cp- m ho cc nhm nhn t a hnh, t ai, kh hu,
nhn tc ................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.3 Xy dng bn chuyn khu vc phc v cng tc iu ch rng
Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.3.1 Xy dng bn trng thi khu vc nghin cu::Error! Bookmark not
defined.
5.3.2 Xy dng bn chuyn phc v cng tc iu ch rng ............ Error!
Bookmark not defined.
5.4 Gii thiu cch hnh thnh cc bn chuyn bng phn mm Map
Info Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.4.1 Cch hnh thnh lp bn chuyn k thut lm sinh : ............... Error!
Bookmark not defined.
5.4.2 Cch hnh thnh lp bn chuyn v lun k khai thc : .......... Error!
Bookmark not defined.
6 Kt lun v ngh .................................................................................... 54
6.1 Kt lun ............................................................................................................ 54
6.2 Kin ngh: ......................................................................................................... 55
Ti liu tham kho ............................................................................................. 56
Ph lc ................................................................................................................. 56
Ph lc1: Mu biu iu tra ngoi thc a .......................................................... 56
Ph lc 2: Kt qu x l s liu bng phn mm Sttgphacs Plus ..................... 58
Ph lc 3: Bng s liu ............................................................................................ 61





v




vi

Danh mc t vit tt:
FAO ( Food and Agriculture Organizatin): T chc Nng lng th gii
GIS (Geographic Information System): H thng thng tin a l.
QLBVR: Qun l bo v rng.
QL: Quc l.
UNDP (United National Development Programme): Chng trnh pht trin
Lin Hip quc
VSV: vi sinh vt.
WRI ( World Resouce International): Vin Ti nguyn Th gii


vii

Danh sch cc bng biu:
Bng 3.1: Din tch t x k RTil ............................................................................ 20
Bng 3.2: Hin trng rng v t rng phn chia theo trng thi v chc nng (y l
hin trng v din tch tnh thi im 2005) ....................................................... 20
Bng 4.1: M t v m ho cc nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc ........................................... 30
Bng 5.1: Phn loi trng thi hin trng .................................................................... 36
Bng 5.2: Trng thi rng theo cc lp phn loi nh SPOT ........................................ 39
Bng 5.3: Tinh ton c knh v tng s cy/ha .............. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Bng 5.4: Tinh ton lng tng trng hng nm v tr lng ... Error! Bookmark not
defined.
Bng 5.5: Gi tr s liu hm hi qui quan h G v cc nhn t sinh thi ............ Error!
Bookmark not defined.
Bng 5.6: Gi tr s liu hm hi qui quan h Zm v cc nhn t sinh thi: ........ Error!
Bookmark not defined.
Bng 5.7: Gi tr s liu hm hi qui quan h M v cc nhn t sinh thi ................... 41

Danh sch cc hnh:
Hnh 4.1: Phn loi t ng nh v tinh SPOT trong ENVI .......................................... 27
Hnh 4.2: Phn tch gp cc im nh trong ENVI ....................................................... 28
Hnh 5.1: Phn loi nh SPOT t ng trong ENVI ...................................................... 35
Hnh 5.2: Chng ghp im iu tra trng thi vi bn phn loi rng t ng t
nh v tinh trong Mpinfo ........................................................................................ 38
Hnh 5.3: Bn trng thi rng trn c s gii on nh v tinh SPOT ..................... 40
Hnh 5.4: Tng quan Zd/5 nm -D .............................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Hnh 5.5: Tng quan N-D ............................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Hinh 5.6: Bn kt hp gii on nh v tinh v d liu iu tra hin trng ... Error!
Bookmark not defined.
Hnh 5.7: Bn ch tiu k thut lm sinh ti khu vc nghin cu: Error! Bookmark
not defined.
Hnh 5.8: Bn lun k khai thc khu vc nghin cu: ............. Error! Bookmark not
defined.



1 t vn
Trong giai on hin nay trong trong thi gian n, ti nguyn rng cn c qun
l da vo cc tin b k thut nng cao cht lng v hiu qu ca iu ch rng.
Trong vic vn dng nh vin thm v cng ngh GIS l mt nhu cu khch quan.
V iu ch rng l t chc khng gian v thi gian rng, n lin quan n yu t a
l v c im cu trc ng thi rng, do nu vn dng c n s l mt gii
php hu hiu khng ch cho qun l v m m c qun l vi m c s trong qun l,
pht trin rng c khoa hc, c c s thng tin c cp nht gip cho vic xc nh
cc gii php k thut cng nh ra cc quyt nh nhanh chng, c tin cy.
Tnh k Nng ang hng n vic pht trin rng bn vng, xut pht t thc t
hot ng hin nay vi din tch rng ngy cng b xm chim, nhng s thay i v
suy thoi ca rng cng vi vic chuyn i gia cc cc trng thi t nhin khng
ngng thay i (rng cha b tc ng, rng t b tc ng, rng t nhin ngho kit,
t khng c rng...) do tc ng ca con ngi (ch yu l cc hot ng khai thc v
kinh t) hay cc tc ng khc ca thin nhin. Trong cc nguyn nhn lm cho rng
ngy cng b suy thoi, quan trng nht l vic qun l v s dng khng hp l. Do
, i hi c nhng phng php nghin cu h tr trong vic phn loi cc trng thi
rng a ra nhng bin php qun l, s dng v bo v rng hp l hn t
hng ti s dng mt cch tit kim nht m vn em li hiu qu cao, v mt hng
mi v ang c p dng l ng dng cng ngh thng tin phc v cng tc
phn loi trng thi rng v qun l rng.
Theo phng php truyn thng, vic cp nhp v iu ch rng da ch yu vo
cc qu trnh iu tra, quan st, trc a, tng hp phn tch thng tin thu thp c
ngoi thc a thnh bng tng hp, hay ch dng cc bn m t a hnh, ranh
gii hin trng rng, hay ch l cc vn bn lu tr, cc s liu thng k, hay l s kt
hp gia chng. Do , phng php ny tiu tn nhiu thi gian v kinh ph, ng
thi tin cy khng cao, hn na, vic cp nhp qun l nhng bin i l kh khn
v khng mang c nhng thng tin v s thay i trn mt phm vi rng nh rng.
9

ng thi cc h thng phn loi trng thi trn th gii cng nh cc h thng
phn loi trng thi rng Vit Nam xy dng hin nay khng cn thch hp vi tnh
trng cc khu rng ang cang ngy cng b thu hp. Rng ca chng ta hin nay ang
suy gim nhiu c v s lng v cht lng. Do , h thng phn loi s dng rng
ang dn khng cn ph hp vi qu trnh pht trin, i hi c nhng h tr trong
vic phn loi, qun l, bo v v s dng rng hp l hn, v cc cng c h tr cho
qu trnh iu ch rng c p dng vo qu trnh qun l mang li hiu qu cao v
cc mt: kinh t, x hi v mi trng.
Ngy nay, vic nghin cu ng dng nh vin thm v cc k thut GIS i vi
vic thu thp v qun l cc i tng ang c quan tm v xu hng hin nay trong
qun l mi trng- ti nguyn thin nhin, s dng ti a kh nng cho php ca GIS
ang c pht trin mnh m. cng l tin p dng cng ngh GIS cng vi
cng ngh phn loi s dng v qun l trc y s khc phc nhiu hn ch ca
phng php truyn thng v hiu qu trong x l s liu nhm hnh thnh bn
phn b, phn loi trng thi rng ng thi c kh nng cung cp cho cc nh qun l
thng tin nhanh hn, hiu qu hn v cc bin ng v cc din bin ang din ra ti
khu vc rng ang qun l bo v, t hinh thnh nn c s d liu phc v cho
cng tc qun l v iu ch rng tt hn trong qu trnh s dng.
chnh l vic kt hp qun l da trn c 2 phng din: truyn thng, kt hp
cng ngh vo qu trnh phn loi s dng t lm nghip lm tin cho qu trnh
qun l, lm cho GIS tr nn gn gi vi nhng ngi lm cng tc qun l, gip hnh
thnh cc bn s gip t c cc mc tiu ra, ng thi mang li nhiu ng
dng mi v a dng hn.
i vi Dak Nng, l ni c din tch rng ln ng thi cng l ni c nhng
bin ng v cc trng thi rng ln nht gn ay tuy che ph ca rng tng ln
nhng cht lng rng tnh Dk Nng ni chung v lm trng Qung Tn ni ring
u gim st. Nhng qu trnh phn loi trng thi rng phc v cho cng tc qun l
y vn cn c nhng hn ch ng thi qu trnh quy hoch v iu ch rng c p
dng vn cn nhiu hn ch, do ; quy trnh khai thc rng lu di , lin tc v m
10

bo cht lng vn cha c thc hin y , vic p dng cc cng ngh tin tin
vo qu trnh phn loi s dng - qun l cn hn ch. V vy, cn nhanh chng p
dng nhng tin b ca khoa hc k thut nh cng ngh GIS ny vo trong qu trnh
iu ch rng l mt yu cu cp thit i vi khu vc ny.
Trc thc tin ny, chng ti thc hin ti NG DNG CNG NGH GIS
TRONG IU CH RNG TNH DK NNG nhm tm ra mt b cng c
qun l d liu v a ra cc ch bo phc v cho cng tc iu ch rng ph hp vi
khu vc nghin cu.



2 Tng quan vn nghin cu
2.1 Khi nim v h thng thng tin a l (GIS)
C rt nhiu nh ngha v H thng thng tin a l m chng ta c th tham
kho nh sau:
Theo Ducker nh ngha, GIS l trng hp c bit cu h thng thng tin
c s d liu bao gm s quan st cc c trng phn b khng gian, cc hot ng
s kin c th c xc nh trong khong khng nh ng, im, vng. [3],[5]
Theo Goodchild : GIS l mt h thng s dng c s d liu tr li cc cu
hi v bn cht a l ca cc thc th a l.
Theo Aronoff nh ngha, GIS l mt h thng gm cc chc nng: Nhp d
liu , qun l v lu tr d liu, phn tch d liu, xut d liu.
H thng thng tin a l - GIS l mt h thng qun l thng tin khng gian
c pht trin da trn c s cng ngh my tnh vi mc ch lu tr, cp nhp,
qun l, hp nht, m hnh ho, phn tch v miu t c nhiu loi d liu.
Tm li, h thng thng tin a l (Geographic Information System, GIS) c
nh ngha nh l mt h thng thng tin m n s dng d liu u vo, cc thao tc
11

phn tch, c s d li u ra lin quan v mt a l khng gian, nhm h tr vic thu
nhn, lu tr, qun l, x l, phn tch v hin th cc thng tin khng gian t th gii
thc gii quyt cc vn tng hp thng tin cho cc mc ch ca con ngi t
ra, chng hn nh: h tr vic ra cc quyt inh cho vic quy hoch v qun l s
dng at, ti nguyn thin nhin, ni trng, giao thng, d dng trong vic quy hoch
pht trin o th v nhng vic lu tr d liu hnh chnh. [5]
2.2 nh ngha v iu ch rng
nh ngha tng qut theo GS. Rucareanu: iu ch rng l khoa hc v thc
tin v t chc rng ph hp vi nhim v qun l kinh doanh rng.
iu ch rng l mt mn khoa hc mang tnh ng dng ca t chc rng. N
da trn c s quy lut pht trin sinh hc ca qun th rng khai thc, nui dng,
bo v, phc hi ti sinh rng ... tc ng ng hng vo rng rng lun pht trin
i ln, dn dt rng n trng thi cn bng v do bo m vn rng n inh t
nng sut cao, t rng ngy cng ph nhiu, tc dng nhiu mt ca rng ngy cng
c pht huy. [2]
2.3 Tnh hnh nghin cu v ng dng GIS trong qun l ti nguyn
- mi trng trn th gii
Vic s dng cng ngh GIS cho nhiu mc ch khc nhau tr nn rt ph
bin trn ton th gii trong khong 30 nm tr li y. GIS bt u c xy dng
Canada t nhng nm su mi ca th k 20 v c ng dng rt nhiu lnh
vc khc nhau trn ton th . Ngy nay, Tri t c nghin cu thng qua s lin lc
thng tin gia cc nc, cc t chc vi nhau nhm hng n ch pht trin chnh
ca cng ngh GIS v vin thm trong mt thi gian di chnh l mi trng v tm
quan trng ca n trong lnh vc ny tng ln nhanh chng trong mt vi nm gn
y. Trong khi mc tiu chnh ca vic s dng GIS l to ra nhng gi tr mi cho
cc thng tin hin c thng qua phn tch khng gian - thi gian v/ hoc m hnh ho
cc d liu c to . Nh kh nng phn tch khng gian - thi gian v m hnh ho,
12

GIS cho php to ra nhng thng tin c gi tr gia tng cho cc thng tin c trit xut
t d liu v tinh. Hin nay, trn th gii cng ngh GIS ang c pht trin mnh
trn cc lnh vc ca qun l ti nguyn mi trng nh :
S c a chn: Bng qu trnh nh danh a hnh, v tr a l, k thut xy
dng, GIS c th gip d bo thi gian v a im c th xy ra cc s c nh ng
t, ni la, cng nh hu qu c th c.
C quan kim sot s c a chn ca Portland, bang Oregon, Hoa K s
dng cc phn mm ARC/INFO, AIC View GIS v Map Objects tr gip d bo v
chuNn b i ph vi cc s c.
Ti o Jekyll: v l o chn bo nn o Jekyll lun phi chu cc cn bo
nhit i. Cc bn ca o, ng x, thm thc vt c s ho bng phn mm
ARC/IN FO. Thit b h thng nh v ton cu (GIS) c s dng nh v chnh
xc cc thm thc vt. Cc bn bo v vng ngp lt cng c s ho cng cc d
liu v bo trong qu kh v thm c iu kin chnh tr ca a phng. Kt hp cc
loi bn ny s l phng tin nh gi cc cp bo, cng nh cc tn tht v cc
d on trc.
nhim khng kh: nhim khng kh c th pht tn rt xa t ngun thi,
gy tc hi i vi sc kho v mi trng trong phm vi ton cu. Cng ngh GIS
h tr rt nhiu trong vic kim sot nhim khng kh. C quan bo v mi trng
M (EPA) s dng phn mm ARC/IN FO nghin cu nhng nh hng ca
nhim khng kh i vi s pht trin ca cy con v hu qu lu di ca khi i vi
rng.
Kim sot nhim khng kh t khi: u tin, min ng nc M c
phn thnh cc vng khc nhau v ARC/IN FO c dng to thnh mt li
nhim bao ph ton b vng ny, mi c din tch 20 km2. Cc d liu v cht lng
khng kh c thu thp t cc trm quan trc vng v c lu vo c s d liu. Da
vo cc c s d liu ny, vi cng c GIS, cc nh khoa hc c th to ra cc bn
v pht tn N Ox, my, nhit hng ngy, hng gi, cao v khong cch khi t
13

ngun pht thi. N goi ra, s dng GIS, cc d liu ny cn c phn tch kt hp vi
iu kin a hnh v kh hu ca tng vng.
nhim nc: GIS c th c dng gim st s phn b v nh lng
nhng cht gy nhim nc khc nhau mt khu vc. B mn K thut N ng
nghip ca Trng i hc N atal dng cc ch s xi l t, mc photpho, ch s s
dng t v lng vi khuNn E. coli, lm cc thng s thnh phn ca m hnh cht
lng nc cho vng chu th Mgeni.
M hnh cht lng nc c n v N ghin cu Vng chu th N ng nghip
pht trin phc v cng tc quan trc, d bo v qun l cht lng nc tng th cho
mt s thnh ph N am Phi.
Massachusetts ang s dng GIS trong gim st cht lng nc ton b vng
lu vc sng Merrimack. V tr ca mi trm thu mu, bi bi, l t rc, ao, ph lu
u c lu trong GIS. GIS c th biu din cc i tng, ng thi tm kim mi
quan h khng gian gia cht lng nc v cc ngun gy nhim tim tng.
Trn du: N hng tc ng bt li ca nhim, chng hn trn du, c th c
c nh bng GIS. Vi nhng thng tin ny, GIS c th m phng tim nng nhim
ca nhng a im khc nhau v pht trin chin lc c nh ri ro. [8]
Cng ngh GIS c Hi ng S c trn du Exxon Valdez s dng xc
nh vng u tin cn bo v v khi phc nhng loi chu thit hi.
Trong lnh vc Lm nghip,ngy nay, cng vic qun l ti nguyn rng ang
l mt thch thc ln. Vi GIS cc nh qun l c th thc hin nhim v ny d dng
hn . Do vy,hin nay trn th gii cung co nhng nghin cu, ng dng cc nc
cng ang nghin cu v ng dng cng ngh GIS trong qun l, bo v rng . N hng
v d di y s minh ho cho nhn nh ny:
Ph rng: Bc tranh ton cnh v mi trng th gii c s thay i ln.
Mt nguyn nhn quan trng l tnh trng ph rng ang ngy cng pht trin. Vin
Ti nguyn Th gii (WRI) s dng GIS nh gi nh hng ca ph rng vi
cc quc gia v ngi dn trn ton Th gii.
14

Thu hp din tch rng trn ton cu: WRI kim sot din tch rng trn
ton cu. N goi ra GIS cn h tr phn tch so snh din tch rng hin nay vi din
tch rng trong qu kh, cho thy xu hng thu hp ngy cng nhanh ca cc din tch
ny v tc thu hp cc vng khc nhau, t d bo tc mt rng ca nhng
ni m bin gii rng vn cn tn ti. Vi phn mm GIS, cc d bo c th c
phn tch di dng bn hoc biu .
D bo nh hng nhim khng kh i vi s pht trin ca thc vt: Vi
GIS, cc nh khoa hc c th ph d liu cho cc vng (cc d liu v s tng trng,
phn b loi thc vt...) theo thi gian, to nn cc bn nh gi s bin i sinh
trng ca tng loi cy. N hng phn tch ny rt hu ch trong d bo nh hng lu
di ca nhim khng kh khng ch i vi thc vt, m cn i vi ng vt v c
con
Vi nhng ng dng rng ri, GIS tr thnh cng ngh quan trng. N tham
gia vo hu ht cc lnh vc trong cuc sng con ngi v ngy cng c qung b
rng ri. Hn na vi xu th pht trin hin nay, GIS khng ch dng li mt quc
gia n l m ngy cng mang tnh ton cu ha.
Vic thnh lp mt h thng thng tin a l (GIS) ton cu hin l mt trong
nhng vn ang c cp nhiu v cng l cc ch nng bng trn nhiu din
n quc t. Ti cc hi ngh c t chc gn y, cc i biu tho lun v vic t
chc v chuyn i cc x hi hin ti thnh x hi thng tin. H cng nu ra vn
liu x hi thng tin ton cu c thc s nng cao cht lng cuc sng ca nhn loi
hay khng? cng nh lm sao trnh vic hnh thnh cc x hi 2 tng (1) tng lp
c tip cn ti cc thit b, dch v v mng li thng tin mi, (2) tng lp khng
c hoc c tip cn rt hn ch nht l i vi cc nc chm pht trin. Tnh hnh
nghin cu v ng dng GIS trong qun l ti nguyn - mi trng Vit N am [1]
T khi vin thm ln u tin c s dng vo nhng nm 70 ca th k 20,
cc nc ang pht trin l i tng chnh c quan st bng cng ngh ny. N n
kinh t ca nhng nc ny thng da vo cc hot ng khai thc ti nguyn thin
nhin, i khi, cc bn hoc cc d liu sn c khng chnh xc hoc li thi,
15

yu cu v chnh xc cng thp hn cc bn ca cc nc cng nghip ho v
tng thch vi d liu ca cc v tinh th h u tin. N hng bin i v mi trng
ang din ra rt nhanh chng (vd. hot ng tn ph rng, s m rng cc th) do
cn phi c nhng quan trc y . p lc quc t ln cc hot ng quan trc ny
kh ln (bo v nhng rng, thc Ny nn dn ch) trong giai on ton cu ho.
Vit N am khng phi l mt ngoi l. Hn 10 nm sau khi chnh sch i mi nn
kinh t c thc hin, nn kinh t ca Vit N am cng t c nhng thnh tu v
cng cn nhiu thch thc nh nhng vn mi ny sinh trong qun l mi trng v
ti nguyn thin nhin.
Ti Vit N am cng ngh GIS cng c th im kh sm, v n nay
c ng dng trong kh nhiu ngnh nh quy hoch nng lm nghip, qun l rng,
lu tr t liu a cht, o c bn , a chnh, qun l th... Tuy nhin cc ng
dng c hiu qu nht mi gii hn cc lnh vc lu tr, in n cc t liu bn bng
cng ngh GIS. C th k n nh:
D n ca UN DP ng dng vin thm Vit N am l nng cao nng lc v
thng k rng Vin iu tra Quy hoch Rng vo nhng nm 80. Sau , UN DP tip
tc ti tr d n th hai m i tng chnh l cc nh khoa hc thuc Vin Khoa hc
v Cng ngh Vit N am trong vi nm. Vo nhng nm 90, Vit N am thu ht mt
s ln cc d n quc t trong lnh vc nng cao nng lc qun l mi trng v ti
nguyn trong GIS lun l hp phn quan trng.
N goi cc d n c u t ca nc ngoi, trong nhng nm gn y cc
nh khoa hc Vit N am cng c nhng ti nghin cu ng dng GIS:
S dng nh Landsat TM thnh lp bn hin trng rng t l 1/250.000
nh gi nh hng ca cht c ha hc i vi ti nguyn rng trong chin tranh
Vit N am.
Tham gia d n Theo di din bin rng vng lu vc sng M Cng do GTZ ti
tr.
Thnh lp bn hin trng rng t l 1/100.000 vng Ty N guyn bng nh
SPOT 1,2 do FAO ti tr.
16

Theo di, nh gi rng ngp mn bn o C Mau bng nh my bay.
Bt u p dng phng php phn loi nh s trong vic thnh lp bn hin
trng rng s dng trong cng tc qun l, khai thc, bo v rng.
S dng nh SPOT thnh lp bn hin trng rng t l 1/100.000
Tip tc thc hin Chng trnh nh gi nh hng ca cht c ha hc i vi
ti nguyn rng trong chin tranh Vit N am. [6]
2.4 Tho lun v vn nghin cu
Tm li, tng quan ca vn nghin cu ng dng cng ngh GIS trong iu
ch rng trn th gii v Vit N am khng nh rng:
- N ghin cu v ng dng cng ngh GIS trong iu ch rng i hi vic thu
thp s liu thng xuyn, lin tc v i hi thng tin cp nhp nhanh chng. N n cc
nghin cu v ti ny ch yu tp trung vo din bin ca thm thc vt lm c s
t chc qun l rng
- Trn th gii, cc nghin c mi tp trung so snh cc din tch rng b
mt, cha ch trng n cc hnh thc, bin php qun l bo v s dng rng hiu
qu nh s dng cng ngh GIS vo xy dng m hnh rng n nh hay iu ch
rng.
- Vic nghin cu v ng dng cng ngh GIS vo iu ch rng cn c p
dng ring cho cc vng c th, v c im sinh thi cc khu vc l khc nhau. Do
, cn c nhng nghin cu v p dng cng ngh khc nhau cho tng vng c th
- Trong nc, mc d cc nghin cu ng dng GIS nc ta pht trin
mnh nhng ch yu vn cc trung tm ln vi cc cng c tin tin (Tp H ch
Minh, Hu, N gh An, H N i...) cc lnh vc khc nhau: lu vc, kinh t, nhim
khng kh, d bo l lut. Qua ta c th thy rng, cng ngh GIS hin cn cha
c pht trin khu vc Ty N guyn v mng Lm N ghip cn cha c ch trng,
mc d khu vc Ty N guyn l khu vc c din tch rng ln nht nc. Do n
lc, cng c GIS ny cn oc p dng trong cng tc iu ch rng phc v cho cng
tc qun l, bo v v khai thc rng bn vng v c c s khoa hc Ty N guyn.
17

Vi mc ch nh vy, chng ti thc hin ti ny nhm gp phn thc Ny vic
ng dung cng ngh GIS vo qun l, bo v v pht trin rng m y chnh l phc
v cng tc iu ch rng.





18

3 i tng nghin cu
3.1 i tng nghin cu c th
ti nghin cu th nghim ng dng GIS trong iu ch rng trn mt khu
vc c th, do i tng nghin cu l:
- Kiu rng ti khu vc nghin cu: Rng l rng thng xanh vi cc
trng thi khc nhau
- nh v tinh: S dng nh v tinh SPOT nm 2006 gii on trng
thi rng
- Phn mm GIS: Khai thc chc nng ca mt s phn mm phc v
cho iu ch rng nh: EN VI phn loi rng, Mapinffo: a ra
gii php qun l, iu ch rng
3.2 Tng quan v khu vc nghin cu
3.2.1 iu kin t nhin khu vc nghin cu
V tr a l
Khu vc nghin cu tp trung x Qung tm thuc huyn Tuy c, tnh k
N ng nm dc theo quc l 14B cch trung tm huyn khong 20 km v pha Bc.
Ranh gii x: Pha Bc gip vi x k Bukso
Pha N am gip vi x Qung Tn
Pha Ty gip vi x Qung Tn
Pha ng gip vi k Rung huyn k Song.
a hnh, t ai
a hnh c dng i ln sng, t ai phn b ch yu trn sn dc vi
dc ph bin t 15-20
0
, nhn chung a hnh ca x c xu hng thp dn t Bc xung
N am, cao so vi mc nc bin cao nht l 870 m, thp nht l 700 m v trung bnh
l 800 m.
19

Theo bn iu tra phn loi t ca Vin quy hoch thit k nng nghip,
cng vi kho st thc a cho thy a bn x k Rtih c ba loi t chnh l:
- t Feralit nu trn t m bazan c tng t dy, y l loi t chim din
tch ch yu, t c kh nng thm nc v thot nc tt, c t l ln thp, c
thnh phn c gii nng rt thch hp cho vic trng cc loi cy cng nghip di ngy
nh c ph, cao su, tiu, iu, cng cc loi cy hoa mu v cc loi cy n qu
khc.
- t bi t ven sng sui phn b ch yu cc con sui k Rtih, k
Ko,vi din tch khng ng k, thng ngp nc v c pht trin thnh cc
vng trng la nc.
- t nu vng trn t bazan phn b ch yu cc khu vc ni cao.
- Kh hu, thu vn
Kh hu mang c im ca kh hu Ty N guyn, c hai ma r rt trong nm
l ma ma v ma kh. Ma ma thng n sm t thng 3 ko di n thng 11
trong nm, lng ma trung bnh nm cao trong vng t trn 2400 mm/nm, thng c
lng ma cao nht l thng 8 (441.6 mm), thng c lng ma thp nht l thng 12
(11.9 mm), s ngy ma hng nm khong 179 ngy. Thi gian ma cc i t thng 6
n thng 8.
N hit trung bnh nm l 22.2
0
C, nhit ti a l 36.6
0
C, nhit ti thiu l
7.6
0
C. Thng c gi nng cao nht l thng 3 (266 gi), thng c gi nng thp nht l
thng 8 v 9 (128 gi).
+ Ma ma bt u t thng 05 n thng 10 trong nm.
+ Ma kh bt u t thng 11 n thng 04 nm sau
Lng ma:
+ Lng ma phn b trung bnh hng nm l 2 330 mm.
+ Lng ma tp trung ch yu vo 03 thng gia ma ma l thng 7 -
8 - 9 v chim khong 80% lng ma c nm.
N hit :
+ N hit bnh qun hng nm l 24,5
o
C.
20

+ N hit tuyt i ti thiu l 15
o
C.
+ N hit ti a l 34
oC
.
+ Bin giao ng nhit nh nhng bin giao ng nhit gia ngy
v m kh ln, nht l vo cc thng ma kh.
Nm:
+ Nm trung bnh hng nm l 84,5%.
+ Nm cao nht l vo khong thng 09, t khong 91%.
+ Nm thp nht l vo ma kh khong thng 03, t khong 82%.
+ Lng bc hi bnh qun hng nm 900 mm/nm.
+ Thng 03 l thng c lng bc hI cao nht khong 133 mm.
+ Bui sng hay c sng m mt s ni.
Nm trung bnh nm khong 83%. Lng bc hi trung bnh nm 926.3 mm.
Hng gi: c hai hng chnh l hng ng Bc v hng Ty N am. V ma
kh c gi thnh hnh thi theo hng ng Bc cp 3-4, khi mnh c th ln cp 6-7.
V ma ma gi thi theo hng Ty N am nh hn cp 2-3 v c nhng ngy lng
gi.
Trong khu vc c hai con sui ln l sui k Rlp v k Rtih ngoi ra cn c
nhiu con sui nh c nc chy quanh nm, y l vng lu vc u ngun ca thu
in thc M. Do c im ca a hnh nn cc con sui hu nh u chy t Bc
xung N am, dc theo ranh gii ca x, qua cc khu dn c to iu kin thun li cho
sinh hot v canh tc trng cc loi cy cng nghip v cy hoa mu.
a hnh:
N i cao so vi mt nc bin 600 - 750m
a hnh phc tp, i ni nhiu, chia ct mnh, cao c xu th gim dn
t Bc xung N am.
t ai th nhng
Din tch t lm nghip trong khu vc ny ch yu nm trn t nu trn
Bazan (F
k
), thnh phn c gii l st, khng c kt von b mt, thch hp vi cc
loi cy nng - lm - cng nghip
21

Din tch t ca khu vc x Qun Tm c phn chia nh sau:
Bng 3.1: Din tch t x k RTil
Stt Loi t

Din tch (ha)
Tng 11.244
1 Tng din tch t nng nghip 10.283,4
1.1 t sn xut nng nghip 4.791,83
1.2 t lm nghip 5.483,24
1.3 t nui trng thu sn 8,33
2 t phi nng nghip 623,05
2.1 t 26,8
2.2 t chuyn dng 306,58
2.3 t tn gio, tn ngng
2.4 t ngha trang, ngha a 12
2.5 t sng sui v mt nc chuyn dng 277,67
3 t cha s dng 337,55
N gun: S liu th cp ti lm trng Qung Tn, k RTil, k Nng

Rng t nhin
Rng y thuc kiu rng g l rng Nm thng xanh vi t thnh loi cy
ht sc phong ph v a dng.
C 3 dng rng: rng g, rng hn giao g - l , rng l thun loi
i vi rng g th c cc trng thi: rng trung bnh, rng ngho v rng
phc hi sau nng ry. Trong , din tch rng c cp tr lng III chim mt t l
kh ln (c din tch 3.121,1 ha chim 41,4%).
i vi rng l thun loi c 2 trng thi: rng l thnh thc v rng l
ti sinh sau nng ry.
Cn li rng hn giao g l thng gp cc trng thi IIIa1 - l , Iib- l ,
IIa- l non.

Bng 3.2: Hin trng rng v t rng phn chia theo trng thi v chc nng
(y l hin trng v din tch tnh thi im 2005)

STT Hang muc
Tong dien
tch (ha)
Chia ra loai rng Ghi chu
Phong ho San xuat
I at co rng 8 225.7 2 393.5 5 832.2
22

1 Rng t nhien 7 427.2 2 017.8 5 409.4
1.1 Rng trung bnh 3 121.1 909.1 2 212.0
1.2 Rng ngheo 3 266.1 884.9 2 381.2
1.3 Rng phuc hoi 1 040.0 223.8 816.2
1.4 Rng hon giao go lo o 406.3 171.8 234.5
1.5 Rng lo o, tre na 288.7 153.9 134.8
2 Rng trong 103.5 50.0 53.5
II at khong co rng 2 242.0 1 263.4 978.6
1 at trong trang co (Ia) 334.5 117.1 217.4
2 at trong cay bui (Ib) 1 472.5 986.6 485.9
3 at trong cay rai rac (Ic) 435.0 159.7 275.3
III Cac loai at khac 2 558.3 627.1 1 931.2
1 at lam nghiep b xam canh 2 502.3 620.5 1 881.8
2 at khac 56 6.6 49.4
Tong cong 13 026.0 4 284.0 8 742.0
N gun: S liu th cp lm trng Qung Tn, k RTil. k Nng
3.2.2 iu kin knh t - x hi khu vc nghin cu
Dn s, dn tc, lao ng
Khu vc rng nghin cu lin quan n cng ng dn cu bun Bu N r A v
B; ch yu l ngi dn tc thiu s MN ng. Tng s h l 117 vi khong 716 nhn
khNu, trong cng ng MN ng chim 91 h vi 587 nhn khNu, dn tc thiu s
khc l 6 h vi 21 khNu, dn tc Kinh c 20 h vi 108 khNu.
t ai v canh tc
Canh tc ch yu l la nc: 18 ha v nng ry 283 ha cng vi vn trng
c ph, iu. N goi ra cng ng cn canh tc nng ry khu vc truyn thng.
Rng c giao cho 8 nhm h qun l t nm 2000 vi tng din tch 1.016 ha
bao gm rng t nhin, t ry, t vn v t b ho sau nng ry.
Kinh t:
23

X Qung Tm l vng su vng xa c tch ra t x Dak RTih v thuc
huyn mi l huyn Tuy c t nm 2006, thnh phn dn tc ch yu l ngi
Mnng, tnh trng i ngho vn cn ph bin, i sng ngi dn vn ph thuc
nhiu vo rng, canh tc nng ry vn l phng thc canh tc ch yu m bo
an ton lng thc cho cuc sng. T nm 1993 n nay x c thm mt s h mi
n nhp c bun bn v dn di c t do t cc tnh pha bc vo.
Din tch t canh tc y th nhiu nhng din tch t a vo s dng trong
nng nghip th vn cn t, ngi dn ch yu lm nng ry, t sau khi khai ph ch
s dng 2-3 nm v sau b i lm ch mi, nn gy ra hin tng bc mu v xi
mn t.
Chn nui ch yu l tru, b, ln, g, ngoi ra cn c mt s h nui voi
(khng nhiu), vic s dng sc ko vo sn xut cn rt hn ch, nhn chung chn
nui cn km pht trin.
Thu nhp chnh ca h vn l cy sn xut hng nm nn thng khng c tin
tit kim, thu nhp t rng l kh ln chim t 30-40% trong ngun thu gia nh, bao
gm cc sn phNm lm lng thc, bn, mt s h cn thu nhp nhiu lm sn ngoi
g to thu nhp. N h vy c th ni rng c vai tr quan trng trong pht trin kinh
t h, tuy nhin hin ti cha c t chc v quy hoch nn c nguy c khai thc cn
kit cc ngun ti nguyn rng.
Vn ho, gio dc.
T khi thnh lp x n nay, i sng ca ngi dn dn dn thay i, tuy cn
gp nhiu kh khn v iu kin sinh hot phc v i sng. Trong nhng nm gn
y c s quan tm ca chnh quyn a phng trong u t h tr nn i sng
vn ho kinh t c phn c i mi. N hng nt vn ho tin b nh trong ci xin,
ngn ng, tn ngng c cng ng gi gn v pht trin.
Ti trung tm cc x c h thng in li Quc gia phc v nhu cu i
sng sinh hot ca ngi dn, phn ln thng tin vn ho c ngi dn cp nht
thng qua h thng sng pht thanh, sng truyn hnh ca cc i trung ng, a
phng v cc i ca cc tnh thnh ln cn.
24

Gio dc, y t:
X xy dng c trng cp I v cp II phc v cho vic nng cao dn tr
ca a bn x, s em n tui i hc cha c n trng chim t l cao. a s dn
c c trnh vn ho thp. Xy dng c trm y t ti trung tm x nhng ch yu
ch s cu tm thi, thng thiu thuc v cc dch v y t cng ng.
Giao thng
Mng li giao thng trong a bn kh hon chnh. Tnh l 886 (QL14B c)
chy xuyn qua t Bc xung N am, ni huyn Tuy c vi trung tm tnh Dk N ng
v pha ng; ni vi cc tnh pha Ty nam: Bnh Phc, Bnh Dng, Thnh ph H
CH Minh; vi cc huyn k Mil, tnh k Lk v nc bn Campuchia pha Bc.
H thng ng dn sinh: cc ng lin thn, lin x kh hon chnh ni cc
thn bun vi tnh l 886; c bit trong lm phn cn c 2 tuyn ng lin x: x
N hn C - x k RTil v x Qung Tn - x k Buk So. N goi ra cn c h thng
ng vn xut phc v sn xut kinh doanh rng kh nhiu v phn b tng i hp
l.
H thng giao thng ng b kh hon chnh to iu kin thun li cho vic
vn chuyn sn phNm, hng ho, nguyn vt liu trong qu trnh t chc sn xut kinh
doanh ca n v; nhng mt tri s b bn lm tc li dng thc hin cc hnh vi vi
phm lm lut (khai thc lm sn, cht ph rng, ln chim t rng, sn bt th rng
tri php...). Do vy sau khi kho st h thng giao thng (ng vn xut v ng
vn chuyn) trong lm phn, thit lp 2 trm QLBVR ti cc v tr trung tm nhm
ngn chn kp thi cc i tng cc hnh vi xm hi n rng.
N hn chung b mt h tng nng thn c nhiu thay i ng k trong nm
nm tr li y, i sng ca nhn dn c nhiu ci thin, mt s h thot ngho.
Tuy nhin to sinh k bn vng v pht trin cng ng ngoi c s h tng i hi
phi c nhiu gii php ng b nh tip cn s dng ti nguyn t rng bn vng,
nng cao nng lc cng ng trong sn xut, tip cn th trng, ti chnh c hiu qu.
y l cc vn cn c quan tm, trong c bit l lam th no qun l s dng
rng c hiu qu.
25










4 Mc tiu - ni dung v phng php nghin cu
4.1 Mc tiu nghin cu
4.1.1 V mt l lun
Gp phn ng dng cng ngh GIS hnh thnh h thng c s d liu ti
nguyn rng lm c s phc v cho vic xy dng cc bin php, phng php,
phng thc iu ch rng ph hp vi cc c im, iu kin t nhin - kinh t x
hi ca cc khu vc khc nhau.
4.1.2 V mt thc tin
ti ny nhm mc tiu c th:
i. Xc nh kh nng ng dng cc loi nh v bn hin trng hin hnh
trong phn loi rng phc v iu ch rng
ii. S dng phn tch m hnh hi quy v cng ngh GIS trong qun l d liu
ti nguyn v t chc iu ch rng.
4.2 Ni dung nghin cu
Trn c s mc tiu nghin cu, ti thc hin cc ni dung nghin cu
chnh sau:
26

i. Phn loi trng thi rng da vo nh vin thm SPOT. X l kt qu, lp
bn cc trng thi rng bng cc phm mm h tr nhm xc nh cc
trng thi phc v cho cng tc iu rng.
ii. N ghin cu cc mi quan h ca cc nhn t iu tra rng phc v iu ch
rng
iii. Thit lp b cng c GIS phc v cng tc iu ch rng.
4.3 Phng php nghin cu
4.3.1 Phng php lun tng qut
Trng thi rng, v ng thi, din bin ca n l i tng t chc iu
ch rng; trong khi chng l c cc thuc tnh a l v khng gian v thi gian; do
vy c kh nng ng dng cng ngh tin tin l nh vin thm GIS qun l.
nh vin thm l c s s liu s ha phn nh hin trng v ng thi ca n,
c xc nh gin tip, do trong thc t cn c phng php thNm nh; v vy cn
kt hp iu tra i tng trn thc a i thiu vi nh lm c s phn loi rng.
Vic qun l rng lin quan n cc mi quan h gia cc nhn t thm thc
vt, trng thi rng v c d liu thng tin a l; do vy cn ng dng phn mm
thng k nh SPSS, Statgraphics pht hin cc quan h ng thi gn kt vi cc
phn mm GIS nh Mapinfo, Arcview, to ra cc c s d liu c mi lin h
gia cc nhn t qun l rng, trng thi rng. l c s iu ch rng.
4.3.2 Phng php nghin cu c th:
i. Phng php phn loi rng da vo nh v tinh SPOT
- Hiu chnh d liu bn
Tt c cc d liu bn u c chuyn v cng 1 h to chuNn WGS84,
h quy chiu UTM Zone48. Vic chn h quy chiu ny nhm mc ch:
+ Cc bn thu thp cc h quy chiu khc nhau, cn chuyn cc d
liu bn s ho v cng mt h quy chiu v cng mt h trc to .
27

+ Cc d liu thu thp ngoi thc a bng dng c GPS s dng h quy
chiu WGS84, h to UTM Zone 48.
Do , cn hiu chnh bn theo cng mt h to v cng h quy chiu
phc v tt hn cho cng tc iu tra, s ho bn
Tin hnh s ho bn thnh lp bn hon chnh v cc s lii phc v
cho cng tc iu tra ngoi thc a
- Phn loi rng bng nh v tinh SPOT:
Cc bc s dng nh v tinh phn loi trng thi rng bao gm:
S dng nh v tinh v chc nng phn loi nh t ng trong EN VI phn
loi cc i tng rng v t rng.
Phn loi nh t ng: Phn loi phi gim nh l phn loi t ng, kt qu
phn loi ph thuc vo tp hp cc phn t c cng cp xm hoc gi tr nh. S
lng cc nhm phn loi ty thuc vo ngi phn loi, y l qu trnh lp i lp li
ca vic nhm cc lp theo cc ch tiu ngi phn loi t ra gm s ln lp
(Maximum iteration), s pixel ti thiu trong mt nhm (Minimum Pixel in Class),
lch chuNn ca nhm (Maximum Class Stdv), s Pixel ti thiu khi kt nhm
(Maximum Merge pairs)....cho n khi tha mn cc iu kin t ra th qu trnh
ny dng li. Thao tc: vo Menu Classification/Unsupervised/IsoData/chn nh cn
phn loi; nhp cc thng s trong ca s Isodata Parameter/OK. Sau kch vo load
bank


28





Hnh 4.1: Phn loi t ng nh v tinh SPOT trong ENVI

Thay i hin th mu cu nh: Trn ca s Image, kch chn Tools/Color
mapping/ Class color mapping/ chn vo tng lp thay i mu ty .


29

Phn tch nh phn loi: Dng chc nng phn tch Majority analysis lm
nh phn loi mn hn cng l gp cc pixel nh vo cc lp ln tng i gn c
im vi cc pixel ny, ty thuc vo phn gii ca nh chn kch c ca kernel.
Sau chc nng phn tch ny, nh tr nn mt hn. Classification/post classification/
Majority/Minority Analysis/ chn nh c phn loi trc /OK, lc ny hin ra
bng hi thoi Majority/Minority Analysis/chn cc lp cn phn tch/t tn file/OK


Trc phn tch gp cc im nh

Sau khi phn tch gp cc im nh

Hnh 4.2: Phn tch gp cc im nh trong ENVI

Kt qu phn loi ny l d liu Raster, t cn chuyn i t d liu Raster
thnh Vector s dng trong GIS
- iu tra thc a:
Trc khi iu tra thc a chnh, cn tin hnh kho st thc a, t kho st
ny nhm xc nh v tr, c im khu vc nghin cu.
Mc ch ca chuyn i thc a l nh gi v kim tra chnh xc ca bn
phn loi theo nh v tinh SPOT xy dng so vi thc t, dng GPS v chp nh
ly mu thm thc vt, tng trng thi rng c trng v cha chnh xc lm c s
nh gi li qu trnh thc hin bn , nhng c im cn khc phc. N goi ra
chuyn i thc a cn nhm thu thp s liu, s dng cc thng tin cn thit ca khu
30

vc v qun l s dng ti nguyn, tnh hnh thc hin chnh sch N h nc c lin
quan n s dng ti nguyn lm c s xy dng phng n qun l, iu ch rng.
Ti mi trng thi ghi nhn 10 im xc nh trn bn phn loi rng
nhm so snh phn loi rng trn nh vi thc a. Ti mi im m t cc nhn t
sinh thi, nhn tc, trng thi, ta UTM, tn che, G, .
Trn c s chng ghp ta cc im kho st trng thi thc a vi phn
loi nh xy dng bn trng thi cui cng
ii. Phng php nghin cu cc mi quan h gia cc nhn t iu tra
rng
Trn tng trng thi rng t 20 mu h thng c dng di 10x30m theo
hng t chn dc ln nh dc mu c tnh i din. Trong cc mu h thng,
iu tra cc ch tiu sinh thi v sinh trng ca cy g: loi cy, chiu cao H, ng
knh ngang ngc D
1.3
, tng G... Tng cng iu tra 40 cho cho c 3 trng thi
rng.
iu tra sinh thi: iu tra thu thp cc ch tiu, nhn t:
- N hn t thc vt: xc nh cc ch tiu:
+ tn che: xc nh che ph ca rng ti khu vc t tiu chuNn
(c tnh theo 1/10).
+ Trong iu tra nhn t thc vt: xc nh thm cc ch tiu G bng
thc o Biterlich, v xc nh thm thc b bng cc ch tiu: bi le tre,
s cy trung bnh trong bi le tre, thc b, % thc b bng mc trc v
tho lun.
- N hn t a hnh: iu tra v nh gi cc tiu: a hnh, dc, cao,
hng phi.
- Khng kh: Xc nh cc chi tiu v Nm, nhit , tc gi, Lux,
lng ma.
- i vi t: Xc nh cc ch tiu v pH, Nm, mu sc, kt von,
ni, VSV t, dy tng t.
31

Nhn tc: Trong qa trnh iu tra, phng vn ngi dn v tnh hnh khai thc,
la rng, qun l khu vc iu tra.
iu tra nh gi sinh trng v pht trin ca cc loi cy g : Xc nh cc tn
loi cy, cng vi o cc ch tiu ca cc cy thn g: o ng knh (D
1.3
), o chiu
cao cy (H), bn knh tn, to cy, c ly n cy gn nht, phNm cht cy, b
dy/trn s vng nm.
D liu thuc tnh c t chc di dng cc bng trong phn mm Excel v
c phn tch hi qui a bin trong phn mm Statgraphics.
c th thc hin c m hnh hi qui a bin mi quan h gia cc nhn
t cn tin hnh m t v m ho cc nhn t.
- i vi cc nhn t c s liu c th, c th gi nguyn s liu hoc tp hp
thnh tng nhm, tng phn cp to iu kin thun li cho cho qu trinh
xy dng m hnh hi qui.
- i vi cc nhn t o m theo nh tnh cn ln lt m ho theo mt qui
nh c th. Cc nhn t c m ho theo mt qui lut hoc mt chiu bin
thin nht nh.
Kt qu ca qu trnh m t v m ho c c nhn t sinh thi oc trnh by
di y:
Bng 4.1: M t v m ho cc nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc
Tn bin s
(n v)
K hiu
bin s

M t v m ho cc nhn t
1 2 3 4 5
Tit din
ngang (m
2
)
G Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
Tr lng
rng (m
3
)
M Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
Lng tng
trng hng
nm (
M
3
/nm)
Zm Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
trng thi Tthai Giu Trung bnh N gho N on t trng
tn che Dtc Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
32

Tn bin s
(n v)
K hiu
bin s

M t v m ho cc nhn t
1 2 3 4 5
(1/10)

Loi le tre Loaitrele Khng c C tre le
% che ph le
tre
Cptrele
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m


Thm thc
b


Ttbi
N gh
rng


Dng x


Song my


N gh rng,
dng x
N gh rng,
song my
% che ph
thc b
Cpbi
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
V tr Vitri Bng Chn Sn nh
dc (
o
) Dodoc Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
Hng phi Huongphoi Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
Mu sc t Msdat N u N u xm Xm en xm nu
dy tng
t (cm)
Dodaydat
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
xp t Doxopdat Ti xp Cht B cht
% kt von Kvon Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
% ni Danoi Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
% t do
giun to nn
Giun
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
C ly n
sng sui gn
nht (m)
Clysuoi
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
Mc lu
rng
Luarung Khng c t c Vi nm Hng nm
Mc tc
ng ca con
ngi
Mdotdong Khai thc
chn
B ha sau
nng ry
Cht trng
trng cy
nng nghip


33

Xy dng mi quan h gia cc ch tiu d bo (G, Zm, M) v cc nhn t
chnh nh hng n cng tc iu ch rng bng phn mm Statgraphic vi dng hm
tng qut y = f(xi)
Trong y: L nhn t ph thuc bao gm cc ch tiu d bo cng tc iu ch
rng; x : L cc bin s biu th cc nhn t tc ng nh hng n y.
Trong qu trnh thit lp m hnh hi quy a bin phi m bo cc yu cu sau
y:
Cn kim tra hm m bo mi quan h gia cc bin s c lp vi bin ph
thuc bng tiu chuNn t vi cc bin xi tn ti vi P <0.05 hoc 0.1
Xc inh hm tn ti hay khng tn ti bng h s tng quan hi quy R (vi R>
0.5) v tiu chuNn F vi P<0.05
Kt qu ca vic lp m hinh hi quy a bin l c s d liu cho vic thnh lp
cc lp bn thuc tnh phc v cho bn chuyn , xc nh cc nhn t nh
hng n cng tc iu ch.
iii) Phng php thit k b cng c phc v cng tc iu ch rng trong
phn mm GIS
Lin kt cc d liu thuc tnh vi cc i tng khng gian m n i din.
Bin tp cc d liu thuc tnh thnh lp bn chuyn .
D liu thuc tnh c t chc di dng cc bng trong phn mm Excel.
Lin kt cc d liu thuc tnh vi cc i tng khng gian m n i din. D liu
thuc tnh cng c t chc thnh lp tng ng vi lp ca i tng khng gian.
To cc trng mi vi cc bin s phc v iu ch rng, v n c d bo
thng qua m hnh hi quy thit lp; lp cc lp c s d liu t cc hm trong
MapInfo to nn b c s d liu bin i phc v iu ch rng.
Bin tp cc d liu thuc tnh thnh lp bn chuyn bng cc cng c
ca phn mm Mapinfo.
Phn tch bn chuyn nhm nh gi hin trng qun l, s dng phng
php layout bn biu din hin trng thng qua bn giy.

34

35

5 Kt qu v tho lun
5.1 Thit lp bn trng thi rng trn c s nh v tinh SPOT v
GIS
i. Phn loi t ng nh v tinh SPOT
xc nh chnh xc ca phn b khng gian ca cc trng thi rng trong
khu vc, s dng nh vin thm SPOT nm 2006 vi phn gii cao, mi pixel
ng vi 10x10m.
Tin hnh phn loi nh t ng bng phn mn EN VI, cc trng thi trn nh
c chia thnh 4 lp mu khc nhau c k hiu l:
+ Class 1
+ Class 2
+ Class 3
+ Class 4
Trong , ng vi mi mt lp l cc hin trng t v t rng khc nhau


36


Hnh 5.1: Phn loi nh SPOT t ng trong ENVI
Kt qa s dng nh v tinh SPOT v cng c phn loi trng thi t ng ca
EN VI cho thy c th nhanh chng phn loi trng thi rng, khc phc nhc im
ca cch phn loi thng qua m t gii mu nh trc y. Phng php ny gip cho
vic phn chia trng thi t ng v chuyn v c file vector gip cho vic s dng
trc tip lp trng thi.


37

ii. Gii on phn loi nh t ng:
Cn c vo bn Vector phn loi nh SPOT tin hnh; s dng kt qu
kim tra cc im trn thc a quyt nh xp loi cc trng thi rng trn thc t
ng vi cc lp (Class) ca nh.
Bng 5.1: Phn loi trng thi hin trng
Phn loi nh SPOT
(M s)
Ta UTM (X,Y) Trng thi hin
trng
Ghi ch
X Y
2 765649 1343861 IIIA1
2 765771 1343739 IIB
2 765849 1343858 IIIA1
2 765836 1343930 IIIA2
2 763578 1343995 IIB
2 763998 1343007 IIB
2 764536 1343832 Le tre
2 765022 1345065 IIIA1
2 765129 1345004 IIB
2 764649 1345481 IIIA1
2 765064 1345576 IIIA1
2 764991 1345622 IIB
2 764966 1345711 IIIA1
2 764628 1345739 IIIA3
2 765620 1346486 IIB
2 765703 1346486 IIIA1
2 765780 1346501 IIIA1
2 766486 1346208 IIIA3
2 766489 1346208 NN
2 766578 1346098 IIIA3
2 766646 1346420 IIIA3
2 767930 1342762 NN
2 768043 1342769 NN
2 768341 1342902 IIB
2 767914 1344845 IIB
2 767950 1344829 DT
2 767966 1344845 IIB
2 737966 1344772 IIIA1
38

Phn loi nh SPOT
(M s)
Ta UTM (X,Y) Trng thi hin
trng
Ghi ch
X Y
2 768053 1344808 IIIA1
2 768104 1344808 IIIA2
2 769848 1342793 IIIA1
1 764800 1345649 IIIA3
1 764659 1345822 IIIA3
1 768119 1344242 IIIA2
1 769518 1342934 IIIA1
2 770094 1341714 IIB
2 770109 1341717 DT
4 764740 1345605 IIB
4 764570 1345550 IIIA1
4 765676 1346579 IIIA1
4 766654 1345705 IIB
4 767235 1343741 IIIA3
4 768164 1344832 IIIA2
4 768172 1344761 IIIA2
4 768319 1344761 NN
4 768459 1343023 IIB
4 768855 1342834 IIB
3 766498 1346011 Nn
3 766502 1346018 IIIA3
3 768134 1344312 IIA2

Kt qu ta im iu tra hin trng c chng ghp trn lp phn loi
rng t ng ca SPOT; c m t trn bn bng phn mm MapInfo nh sau:


39


Hnh 5.2: Chng ghp im iu tra trng thi vi bn phn loi rng t
ng t nh v tinh trong Mpinfo

Sau khi chng ghp ta thc t trng thi vi bn phn loi t ng t
nh v tinh, nhn thy rng cc lp mu tng ng vi cc trng thi nghin cu thc
a nh sau:
- Class1 (mu xanh thm): tng ng vi cc im iu tra rng giu v
trung bnh
40

- Class2 ( Xanh da tri): ch yu l trng thi trung bnh, ngho v mt s t
trng thi non trn thc a
- Class 3 (): mt s it l rng non v ngho.
- Class 4 (xanh l cy): chim a s l rng non v mt s t l rng ngho.
T kt qu chng ghp, quyt inh sp xp cc lp (Class) phn loi trng
thi rng. Kt qu phn loi c trnh by bng sau:
Bng 5.2: Trng thi rng theo cc lp phn loi nh SPOT
Phn loi nh
SPOT
Quyt nh trng thi theo
cc lp phn loi nh
1 IIIA3
2 IIIA1+2
3 t trng
4 IIB

Sau khi quyt nh cc lp nh theo tng trng thi, xy dng bn s ho
trng thi rng ti khu vc iu tra nghin cu.



41


Hnh 5.3: Bn trng thi rng trn c s gii on nh v tinh SPOT

5.2 M hnh ha quan h gia nhn t tr lng (M) vi cc iu
tra rng xy dng c s d liu cho GIS
Trong cc phn mm GIS, to c s d liu lin kt cc nhn t, cc lp;
m hnh hi quy cn c s dng
lp k hoch iu ch rng, cn nghin cu mi quan h gia cc nhn t
ph thuc l tr lng lm phn M vi cc nhn t d o m, kim sot, kho st nh
Dbq, Hbq, G, N /ha ; t to lp c s d liu ng phc v iu ch rng trn
c s thay i M theo thi gian v cc bin php lm sinh.
42

Trn c s 40 tiu chuNn 3 trng thi, tnh ton c c s d liu bao gm
cc nhn t iu tra lm phn nh: Dbq, Hbq, G/ha, N /ha, M/ha v cc sinh thi lin
quan. (Kt qu trong ph lc 3)
S dng phn mm Statgraphics Plus d tm quan h ti u gia M vi cc
nhn t iu tra lm phn.
Bng 5.7: Gi tr s liu hm hi qui quan h M v cc nhn t iu tra lm
phn
Tham s Gi tr Sai s T P-value
a -794.139 44.0 -18.0486

0.0000
Dtb

25.5213 1.19706 21.3199

0.0000
Htb

13.5937 3.49272 3.89201

0.0004
Nha

0.284791 0.0120024 23.7279

0.0000

H s quan h R = 0.9984 vi P < 0.05. Cho thy cc nhn t nh hng ti tr
lng bao gm cc nhn t sau: D v H trung bnh v N /ha, vi mc P < 0.01. Kt qu
c c m hnh:
M = -794.139 + 25.5213*Dtb + 13.5937*Htb + 0.284791*Nha (5.1)
T m hnh ny c th xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n tr lng nh sau:
- Chiu cao cng tng th t l thun vi tr lng rng s cng cao v ngc
li.
- ng knh trung bnh t l thun vi tr lng ca rng, iu ny d dng
nhn thy trong thc t, cy c ng knh cng ln l mt trong nhng nhn t
c bn nh hng n s gia tng tr lng cng cao
- Tr lng ca rng cn b chi phi bi tng s cy /ha. Tr lng rng t l
thun vi s lng cy trn n v din tch l 1 ha, s lng cy cng tng cao
dn n tr lng cng ln
Qua kt qu phn tch m hnh hm hi quy a bin, c th kt lun rng: tr
lng rng lin quan n ng knh, chiu cao cy, s lng cy
43

N h vu trong h thng c s d liu, c th d bo M thng qua cc nhn t
c th o m nhanh nh Dbq, Hbq v N /ha; cng trn c s ny c th to lp trng
d liu trong GIS bin i M theo cc nhn t ni trn.
5.3 C s d liu iu ch rng trong Mapinfo
Trn c s d liu cc trng thi rng, m hnh quan h M = f(Dbq, Hbq, N /ha),
lp c c s d liu trong lp bn trng thi.
S dng d liu iu tra nhp trong Excel v m hnh hi quy a bin c
thit lp trong phn mm Statgraphics, chuyn qua phn mn Mapinfo professional,
xy dng bng d liu iu tra thnh mt lp bn cha cc thng tin iu tra.
xy dng lp theo trng thi rng, thc hin cc bc sau:
1. To bn trng thi v c s d liu: Vo menu File > Open, m Table:
mahoatratngthai.tab, c c bn v s liu nh sau:

Hnh 5.4: Bn trng thi rng v c s d liu

44

2. To lp trng d liu bin i M theo cc nhn t Dbq, Hbq v N /ha v cc
trng d liu thay i nhn t lm phn trong iu ch rng: Thc hin cc
bc sau:
- Mthmcctrngdliuphcviuchrngnh:M,Mkt(Mkhai
thc),Mskt(Msaukhaithc),L(Lunk):
VoModifytablestruture:T y khai bo m thm cc trng d liu

Hnh 5.5: M cc trng d liu cho iu ch rng

- Todliuthayitheoccnhntchotngtrng,trong:
M c d bo qua 3 nhn t Dbq, Hbq v N /ha thng qua m hnh quan h
thit lp
Mkt = 20%M vi cng khai thc l 20%
45

Mskt = M Mkt
Lun k c tnh theo cng thc li kp, vi sut tng trng cho trc l 2%
v tr lng chuNn t trc l Mc = 350m
3
/ha
L =
|ug
Mc
Mxkt
lug (1+P%)
(5.2)

Vo menu Table > Update Column, hp thoi Update Column xut hin:

Hnh 5.6: Nhp m hnh bin i M theo cc nhn t iu tra lm phn

46


Hnh 5.7: Xy dng d liu Mkt theo M

Hnh 5.8: Xy dng d liu Mskt
47


Hnh 5.9: Xy dng trng d liu d bo lun k khai thc




5.4 Qun l, iu ch rng trong Mapinffo
Trong phn mm Mapinfo Professional, sau khi xy dng c s d liu v to
c cc trng d liu theo cc m hnh quan h, c th s dng n nh l cng c
qun l v iu ch rng.
i) Xy dng gii php k thut lm sinh trong GIS
xc nh gii php lm sinh cho tng i tng, cn cn c vo cc c im
lm phn nh N /ha, M/ha, Dbq, . Ty vo c im ti nguyn rng m la chn 1
hoc nhiu ch tiu l c s phn loi gii php lm sinh.
Trong ti ny, phn chia gii php lm sinh da vo M ca lm phn nh
sau:
- Lmgiurng:50<M<200m
3
/ha
48

- Cht nuidngrng:200<M<300m
3
/ha
-
Khaithc:300<M<400m
3
/ha

-
Trng rng: t trng. M = 0

S dng cng c xy dng bn chuyn dng Range (Xp theo

dy, cp). Trong c th xy dng thnh cc cp khc nhau theo mt
nhn t xc nh, y l M/ha


Hnh 5.10: Xy dng gii php lm sinh theo cp M

49


Hnh 5.11: Bn t chc gii php lm sinh

Trn c s c th to lp ring cc bn k thut lm sinh, S dng chc
nng chn lc ca Mpinfo: Query/Select v ci t trng M theo chi tiu p dng k
thut lm sinh khc nhau
50



Hnh 5.12: Xy dng c s d liu v bn khu vc t chc chui iu ch
khai thc chn

ii) Qun l rng theo lun k
51

Tng t nh phn chia gii php lm sinh, c th s dng chc nng To bn
chuyn dng Range qun l cc khu vc iu ch khai thc rng theo cc cp
lun ly khc nhau. Trong L c d bo theo Mc, Mskt. C 2 kh nng p dng
- Xcnhcckhuvc theo lun k thi im hin ti: Da vo Mskt
hin ti v Mc cho trc.

52

Hnh 5.13: Phn cp lun k khai thc trong chui iu ch rng trong
Mapinfo

- Theodi cckhuvc theo lun k sau n nm:
Da vo bin i Mskt n nm theo tng trng P = 2% l:
Mxkt n nam = Mxkt (1 +P%)
n
(5.3)
V khi lun k c rt ngn dn theo thi gian nui dng rng n nm gi l
L n nm: L n nam =
|ug
Mc
Mxkt n nam
lug (1+P%)
(5.4)

Trn c s cn to 2 trng mi l Msjt n nm v L n nam v a cng thc tnh
ton thng qua Update column.
N h vy trong thc t qun l, ch cn cp nht 2 trng d liu Mskt n nam v L
n nam l c th theo di din bin lun k t chc qun l khai theo trng thi
ng

53




Hnh 5.14: Khai bo cp nht bin Mskt n nam va L n nam qun l chui
iu ch cht chn theo lun k
54

Trn c s cc trng d liu c thng xuyn cp nht, s c c ng thi
ca lun k, lm c s t chc khai thc rng cc gii on tip theo

Hnh 5.15: ng thi lun k trn c s cp nht t ng thay i M rng
theo n nm sau khai thc







55

6 Kt lun v ngh
6.1 Kt lun
Xut pht t nhng thc t qun l bo v v pht trin rng hin nay, chng
ti bc u th nghim xy dng phng php s dng cng ngh nh vin thm
bng nh SPOT v ng dng phn mm Map Info vo cng tc iu ch rng. ti
NG DNG CNG NGH GIS TRONG IU CH RNG Th nghim
x Qung Tm, huyn Tuy c, tnh Dak Nng t c kt qu mong i v
c cc kt lun chnh sau:
i) SdngnhvtinhSPOTtrongphnloitrngthirng:
- Phn loi nh t ng trong ENVI h tr tt cho vic gii on nh
- Chng ghp cc ta im quan st trng thi thc t vi nh c
phn loi lm cho vic gii on gim nh cng sc, thi gian v t
tin cy
- Bn hin trng rng p dng nh vin thm l c s quan trong
cp nht din bin trng thi rng
ii) To c s, trng d liu iu ch rng thng qua GIS:
- Vic lng ghp ng dng m hnh hi quy a bin biu din quan h
gia nhn t cn gim st, qun l vi cc bin nh hng vi chng
trnh cp nht trng d liu to ra phng php qun l iu ch
rng linh hot, trng thi ng
- xy dng c m hnh hi quy a bin quan h: M ; f(Dbq, Hbq,
N/ha). y l m hnh co s d bo M v t chc cc gii php lm
sinh
iii) Xydng cc cng c trong Mapinfo t chc iu ch rng
- xydng cc gii php s dng cng c Mapinfo xc lp cc gii
php lm sinh
56

- xc lp cng c trong Mapinfo gim st ng thi ca rng v
lun k khai thc trn c s cp nht t ng cc bin ph thuc
- Kt qu cho thy kh nng khai thc Mapinfo trong iu ch rng l c
c s, thun tin, gim chi ph v h tr c lc cho cng tc qun l
rng lu di
6.2 Kin ngh:
T cc vn pht hin c v thng qua qu trnh thc hin , ti c cc
kin ngh chnh sau y:
i. Trong thi gian ti trn, cn sm trin khai cng ngh xy dng bn da trn
qu trnh gii on nh nhm nh gi chnh xc trng thi rng hin ti v da
ra nhng b cng c ch bo trong iu ch rng.
ii. C th s dng x l nh vin thm v h thng thng tin a l theo di din
bin, cp nht v xy dng bn trng thi rng phc v cc ch tiu iu ch
rng hng nm.
iii. Cng ngh x l nh vin thm kt hp vi h thng thng tin a l l cng
ngh tng i mi Vit N am, c bit l ti Tay N guyn. Do , cn c nhng
bin php khuyn khch nhn rng v p dng ph bin ti cc lm trng v
cc cc c s kinh doanh qun l rng.







57

Ti liu tham kho
1. Trn N guyn Bng, V Hu Cng, (2003), Tm hiu s thay i lp thm thc
vt v cc vn qun l ti nguyn ti x Mu c, huyn Con Cung, Tnh
Ngh An.
2. Bo Huy, (2006), Bi ging Quy hoch sinh thi cnh quan v ti nguyn rng,
i hc Ty N guyn.
3. N guyn Th Thanh Hng, (2006), Bi ging H thng thng tin a l, i hc
Ty N guyn.
4. V Tin Hinh, Phm N gc Giao, (1997), Bi ging iu tra rng, i hc Lm
nghip.
5. N guyn Kim Li, (2006), ng dng GIS trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin,
N h xut bn N ng nghip.
6. N guyn Thanh Minh, Nghin cu ng dng nh vin thm c phn gii siu
cao trong vic xc inh cc i tng ng giao thng th.
7. N guyn Hu Phc v cng s, (2000), Tch hp cng ngh thng tin a l v
MATLAB trong bi ton phn tch v qun l h thng in . i hc bch khoa
TP. H Ch Minh.
8. Cc Websites: www.vnthuquan.net , www.vidagis.com, www.rsc.gov.vn










Ph lc
Ph lc1: Mu biu iu tra ngoi thc a
tc: Tuyn s:
Ngy iu tra: Ngi iu tra:
58

Bun: X: Huyn: Tnh:
Din tch
To UTM trung tm tiu chun: X: Y:
Kiu rng: Trng thi rng:
Nhn t thc vt
tn che (1/10) v chp nh tn che: G(m
2
/ha Biterlich)
Le tre tng s bi trong tc: S cy trong bi tb:
Hbq: Dbq: %che ph:
Thc b (2-3 loi chnh): %che ph mt t:
Nhn t a hnh
a hnh (chn, sn, nh): dc:
cao(m): Hng phi:
Nhn t t ai
Loi t: Mu sc t: dy tng t mt: m t:
Kt von(%): ni(%):
pH t: Nhit t:
Vi sinh vt t (loi, mc : nhiu, trung bnh, t):
Nhn t kh hu thu vn
C ly n ngun nc gn nht (km): Thu vn (h sng sui chnh):
Lng nc: ma ma c: khng: Ma kh c:
khng:
Lng ma (mm): Nhit khng kh:
m khng kh: Lux:
Nhn tc
Mc tc ng ( qua khai thc mc no? Sau nng ry, khai thc chn):
La rng: Hng nm thnh thong: Thng xuyn:


iu tra cy g: T 1.3m tr ln tc 10 x 30m hoc 10x50m chia
lm cc 10 x 10m
59

Stt tc
th cp
10x10m
Stt
cy
Tn loi
D
1.3

(cm)
H (m)

Bn knh tn (0.1m) To cy
C ly n
cy
gn nht
(0.1m)
P
ch
(a
Bc ng Nam Ty X Y








Ghi ch: 10x50: Rng tt, o t m tt c chi tiu. 10x30: cc trng thi: Chi o: Loi, D1.3, c ly
n cy bn nht










Ph lc 2: Kt qu x l s liu bng phn mm Statgphacs Plus m hnh quan h
M vi cc nhn t nh hng

Multiple Regression Analysis
60

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dependent variable: M
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CON STAN T -794.139 44.0 -18.0486 0.0000
Dtb 25.5213 1.19706 21.3199 0.0000
Htb 13.5937 3.49272 3.89201 0.0004
N ha 0.284791 0.0120024 23.7279 0.0000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model 237108.0 3 79035.9 447.26 0.0000
Residual 6361.61 36 176.711
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (Corr.) 243469.0 39

R-squared = 97.3871 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 97.1694 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 13.2933
Mean absolute error = 9.27134
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.9774



61

The StatAdvisor
---------------
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear
regression model to describe the relationship between M and 3
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

M = -794.139 + 25.5213*Dtb + 13.5937*Htb + 0.284791*N ha

Since the P-value in the AN OVA table is less than 0.01, there is a
statistically significant relationship between the variables at the
99% confidence level.

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted
explains 97.3871% of the variability in M. The adjusted R-squared
statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different
numbers of independent variables, is 97.1694%. The standard error of
the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be
13.2933. This value can be used to construct prediction limits for
new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu.
The mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.27134 is the average value of the
residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to
determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order
in which they occur in your data file. Since the DW value is greater
than 1.4, there is probably not any serious autocorrelation in the
residuals.

In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the
highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.0004, belonging to
Htb. Since the P-value is less than 0.01, the highest order term is
62

statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. Consequently,
you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.










Ph lc 3: Bng d liu c s cc tiu chun theo trng thi rng
Stt
Trang
thai
Ma hoa
tt X Y Dtb Htb N/ha G M
1 IIIA3 1 764628 1345739 25.3 15.3 1020 51.3 352.87
2 IIIA3 1 764659 1345822 24.2 14.9 1100 50.6 339.07
3 IIIA3 1 764494 134618 24.7 15.8 1060 50.8 360.94
4 IIIA3 1 764719 1340320 24.6 15.7 1500 71.3 503.43
5 IIIA3 1 764800 1345649 25.5 15.8 920 47.0 333.89
6 IIIA3 1 766486 1346208 25 15.5 780 38.3 266.92
7 IIIA3 1 766646 1346120 25.3 16.7 840 42.2 317.19
8 IIIA3 1 766578 1346098 23.7 15.2 920 40.6 277.47
9 IIIA3 1 766502 1346018 21.2 13.9 1240 43.7 273.65
10 IIIA3 1 767235 1343741 23.6 18.3 780 34.1 280.84
11 IIIA1+2 2 769518 1342934 24.7 15.8 833 39.9 283.76
12 IIIA1+2 2 765836 1343930 23.7 15.5 1056 46.6 324.77
13 IIIA1+2 2 765849 1343858 18.2 14 1023 26.6 167.58
14 IIIA2 2 768164 1344832 24.6 15.9 792 37.6 269.20
15 IIIA2 2 768053 1344759 18.8 14.1 1353 37.5 238.19
16 IIIA! 2 769848 1342793 19.5 14.2 990 29.6 188.83
17 IIIA1+2 2 764649 1345481 22.2 14.8 990 38.3 255.09
18 IIIA1+2 2 770109 1341717 23.5 15.2 990 42.9 293.56
19 IIIa1 2 765676 1346579 19.5 14 1320 39.4 248.23
20 IIIa2 2 765022 1345065 23.6 15.4 1155 50.5 349.95
21 IIIa1 2 765703 1346486 20.5 14.4 1254 41.4 268.07
22 IIIA1+2 2 765064 1345576 20.2 14.5 1122 35.9 234.50
63

23 IIIA1+2 2 764570 1345550 25.7 15.2 1188 61.6 421.32
24 IIIa1 2 765780 1346501 22.4 15.2 1287 50.7 346.74
25 IIIa1 2 764966 1345711 24.1 15.6 1419 64.7 454.18
26 IIB 3 763578 1343995 19.4 14.1 891 26.3 167.03
27 IIB 3 763998 1344007 25.4 15.2 627 31.8 217.20
28 IIb 3 768855 1342834 19.5 14.2 990 29.6 188.83
29 IIB 3 768341 1342902 24.1 15.4 924 42.1 291.95
30 IIB 3 766654 1345705 15.4 12.7 1122 20.9 119.38
31 IIB 3 765129 1345004 19.5 14.3 1023 30.5 196.50
32 IIB 3 764991 1345622 22.3 15 1122 43.8 295.65
33 IIB 3 764740 1345605 22.7 15.4 924 37.4 259.02
34 IIB 3 765620 1346500 17.2 13.5 1353 31.4 190.88
35 IIB 3 770094 1341714 22.3 15 1188 46.4 313.04
36 IIB 3 768459 1343023 18.9 14 990 27.8 174.89
37 IIB 3 767966 1344845 24.8 15 1056 51.0 344.14
38 IIB 3 768459 1343023 24.3 15.6 891 41.3 289.93
39 IIB 3 765771 1343739 19.4 14.2 1155 34.1 218.05
40 IIB 3 789758 1344001 23.3 14.9 1287 54.8 367.76