CHNG I:

I CNG V NGHIN CU MARKETING

I. C S KHOA HC CA MARKETING
Mc ch

Nghin cu khoa hc

Phng php

Qu trnh

1. Nghin cu khoa hc:

L cch thc con ngi tm cch hiu cc vn khoa hc 1 cch c h thng (Babbie 2001, Kerlinger & Lee 2000) 2. Mc ch: Mc ch ca mi hot ng NCKH l m t, gii thch, d on hoc kim sot cc s vic hay hin tng. 3. Phng php: How can we know what we know? Kin thc chng ta c c nh: Kinh nghim bn thn: Kin thc rt ra t thc tin Chp nhn / k tha: Hc t ngi khc Nghin cu khoa hc: T tm ti theo phng php khoa hc. Hai phng php lun c bn: Qui np v Suy din Qui np (Induction): tin hnh tng qut da trn kt qu quan st ca 1 s hu hn cc s kin c th. Suy din (Deduction): da vo nhng nguyn l/ l thuyt tng qut c trc suy ra nhng kt qu c th khc. Phng php kt hp: Php suy din da trn cc l thuyt c sn xy dng cc gi thuyt V Php qui np da vo cc quan st kim nh gi thuyt a ra.
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L thuyt / Nguyn l

Su y di n

Tng qut ha

Vn nghin cu

Cc gi thuyt

Qu i np

Quan st

4. Qu trnh NCKH: Nhn dng v xc nh vn nghin cu Hnh thnh cc gi thuyt Thu thp d liu Phn tch d liu a ra kt lun khng nh hay bc b gi thuyt Qui trnh ny p dng cho hu ht cc ngnh khoa hc, tuy c th xut hin di nhiu hnh thc khc nhau. II. NGHIN CU TRONG MARKETING

1. nh ngha: Nghin cu trong marketing l qu trnh ng dng cc phng php khoa hc vo vic nghin cu cc vn trong lnh vc marketing. C th:

Nghin cu marketing (MR) l qu trnh bao gm cc hot ng c h thng, theo qui trnh khoa hc nhm thu thp, lu tr, phn tch v din dch d liu phc v cho nhu cu m t, gii thch, d bo hoc ra quyt nh trong marketing. Cc im ch yu: H thng: tnh hoch nh v t chc tt Khch quan: kt qu khng ph thuc nh nghin cu D liu vs Thng tin (l d lieu c phn tch, c ngha, c gi tr, chnh xc, ng thi im, ng ngi. Nghin cu tip th (marketing research) vs Nghin cu th trng (market research) (o lng tim nng th trng, Xc nh c trng ca th trng, phn tch th phn) 2. Khc bit gia MR v cc loi nghin cu khc:
- MR lin quan n yu t con ngi

C nhiu yu t (bin) tham gia vo mi trng Tc ng ca cc bin phc tp v kh tng qut ha Cc phng php o c chnh xc cng kh thc hin Ngi quan st c th ch quan v b nh hng bi cc yu t hay l thuyt c trc - C th c hiu ng b quan st - Cc phng php kim sot v nh gi kh hu hiu. 3. Lch s pht trin mn hc: Pht trin song song vi mn hc marketing Sch u tin: - Commercial research (Ducan, 1919), US - Market Analysis (P.White, 1921), US - Marketing Research and Analysis (L.Brown, 1937), US - Marketing Research (H.Boyd & Westfall, 1956), US Vit Nam: Sau nm 1990 III. QU TRNH MR

C s v s cn thit ca d n nghin cu Tnh hu ch (c 4 trng hp nn s dng nghin cu) Thi ca lnh o Ngun lc Li ch Chi ph
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1. Xc nh mc tiu nghin cu 2. Xy dng m hnh bi ton 3. Thit k nghin cu - Xc nh nhu cu thng tin - Ngun cung cp thng tin - Phng php v cng c thu thp thng tin - Thit k mu Thu thp d liu Phn tch v din dch d liu Bo co kt qu IV. MR V MES TRONG DOANH NGHIP
Ad hoc Marketing Research Tnh cht tnh hung Theo yu cu RQ c th

Ri rc

Marketing Information System

Cung cp thng tin u n, h thng v hp nhu cu

MKT Decision Support System

MKIS + kh nng phn tch d liu theo yu cu trc What if

Lin tc

Marketing Expert System

Mnh nht hin nay Ch ng bo thng tin c lin quan ti DN ngh cch i ph

CHNG II

THIT K NGHIN CU
I.
1. nh ngha:

QU TRNH THIT K NGHIN CU

Thit k nghin cu (TKNC) l k hoch xc nh c th qui trnh thu thp v phn tch d liu cn thit t c mc tiu nghin cu. Cn lu : Cn c th ha ni dung v qui trnh thc hin D liu thu thp phi ph hp v p ng mc tiu nghin cu Thng tin:
Gi tr thng tin

chnh xc

Chi ph

2. Qu trnh thit k nghin cu: Bc 1: Xc nh vn nghin cu nh r vn qun l cn RQ c th lin quan n nhiu lnh vc trong DN Phn tch tnh hung RQ: - Cc yu t c lin quan n bn cht vn - Mi quan h gia chng vi nhau v vi kt qu Vn no trong phn phn tch nu trn cn nghin cu? Bc 2: Xc nh mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu C th mc tiu nghin cu l g? Nghin cu trong phm vi, rng buc, tin no?

Bc 3: Xy dng m hnh bi ton MR: Mc tiu nghin cu (outputs) s t c qua vic x l m hnh g? Nhng bin no s quyt nh outputs Mi quan h gia chng ra sao thc hin tt 3 bc ny: o Nh nghin cu cn phi hp vi nh qun l o Cn kin thc Business / Management / MKT & MR Bc 4: Thit k nghin cu Xc nh nhu cu thng tin Da vo m hnh lp bc 3 Lu l MR khng to ra gii php cho ngi RQ, nhng mun c gii php cn c thng tin. Th cp S cp Thc nghim Ngun cung cp thng tin

Phng php o v thu thp thng tin nh lng / nh tnh Thang o Bng cu hi Cch tip cn thng tin / phng vn Thit k mu Khng gian mu Khung mu C mu Phng php ly mu K hoch phn tch d liu Cc phng php phn tch s s dng Chuyn kt qu phn tch thnh cc pht biu Hoc lun v cc mi quan h gia cc yu t Tng qut ha vn (nu c th) Lu : Phng php phn tch d liu phi c chn trc khi thu thp d liu. X l d liu v phn tch d liu.
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Bc 5: K hoch nhn lc, thi gian v ngn sch

Khi lng cng vic Yu cu cng vic Tnh cht Thi gian K hoch nhn lc

Xc nh thi gian cn (c th s dng cng c h tr PERT, CPM ) Cc yu cu v ngn sch (chi ph trc tip, gin tip, i li, khc ) C th c tnh chi ph s b: A = {(a ng / 1 interview * sample size) + X chi ph c nh} Cn cn nhc gia chi ph v thi gian Chi ph tr hn: ph thuc tnh cp thit ca kt qu n/c (gi tr theo thi gian ca kt qu n/c) Bc 6: c lng gi tr thng tin mang li Mi quan h gia chi ph b ra v li ch k vng do thng tin mang li Li ch k vng trong MR c nh gi bng cm tnh hoc phng php gi tr k vng. Bc 7: Hnh thnh bn cng nghin cu Th hin ni dung ca qu trnh thit k nghin cu Ni dung bao gm: - Tm tt (Summary) (1 2 pages) - C s hnh thnh (Background) - Mc tiu nghin cu (Objectives) (+ phm vi nghin cu) - Phng php nghin cu (Research Approach) (M hnh + Thit k + Cch thu thp + Trin khai) - Chi ph v tin thc hin (Time Schedule and Budget) - Cc ph lc. II. PHN LOI MARKETING RESEARCH
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1. Theo bn cht nghin cu: Nghin cu c bn (basic research): Nghin cu pht trin ton th cc hiu bit cho tt c mi ngi ni chung hay v 1 ngnh ni ring, kt qu lm tng thm s hiu bit v i tng no thuc l thuyt, kt qu thng c cng b cng khai. Nghin cu ng dng (applied research): gii quyt 1 vn c th marketing ca 1 doanh nghip, phm vi p dng hp. 2. Theo ngun thng tin c thu thp: Nghin cu ni nghip (desk research): Thng tin c thu thp l thng tin th cp (l thng tin c sn thu thp v x l cho 1 mc ch no . Nh nghin cu s dng li cho nghin cu ca mnh. Nghin cu hin trng (field research): Thng tin c thu thp l thng tin s cp (l thng tin c thu thp trc tip ti ngun cho mc ch ring ca mnh.
3. Theo cch quan st/ m t d liu: Nghin cu nh tnh (qualitative research): Thng tin c thu thp dng

nh tnh, khng th o lng bng s lng. Qui m ly mu nh, chnh xc khng cao. To c s tin cho nghin cu v nh lng. Nghin cu nh lng (quantitative research): Thng tin cn thu thp dng s lng, s dng khi thng tin chnh xc l cn thit ( khng nh tnh hung). Vic ly mu i din cho ton b th trng, bao qut, qui m ly mu ln, thng ly mu theo xc sut. Phng php s nhiu: Nghin cu nh tnh - nh lng - nh tnh 4. Theo tnh cht kt qu: Nghin cu khm ph: khm ph s b vn cn nghin cu hoc khng nh li vn nghin cu, cc bin, thit lp cc gi thit. Thng s dng nghin cu ni nghip, kinh nghim, quan st. Nghin cu m t: m t th trng nhng cha tm hiu cn nguyn ca hin tng. Nghin cu nhn qu: tm mi quan h nhn qu gia cc bin ca th trng (kim sot c hin tng) (hiu c tc ng ca nguyn nhn n kt qu). III. NGHIN CU NH TNH

1. Tng qut v nghin cu nh tnh: D liu c thu thp dng nh tnh To c s / thng tin tin cho n/c nh lng
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Thch hp giai on nghin cu khm ph Tho lun nhm, phng vn su, case study,

2. K thut tho lun nhm L qu trnh tho lun c ngi dn dt khch quan (objective discussion leader) Thc hin trn tinh thn t nhin v phi cu trc c im: linh hot, kh; i hi nh n/c phi c nhng k nng cn thit.

Thnh phn nhm tho lun: Kch thc nhm: 8 12 ngi C th c nhiu nhm Nhm phi ng nht Trnh nhng ngi chuyn nghip c im ngi dn dt: n cn nhng kin quyt To s d di, thoi mi C kh nng thu ht mi ngi C kh nng lm r vn Linh hot / nhy bn Cch tin hnh tho lun: Thi gian tho lun: 1.5 2 gi Cch b tr phng, nh sng Ghi chp, ghi m

u nhc im: u: D liu phong ph C th nghin cu c cc i tng c bit C th cho cc manager quan st Nhc: Khng th dng tng qut ha C kh nng sai lch ln Tn nhiu chi ph C th nhng ngi d s nh hng ln nhau IV. 1. Bn cht:

THC NGHIM

iu kin c Mi Quan H Nhn Qu Bin i ng thi: Bin nguyn nhn v bin kt qu phi bin thin ng hnh vi nhau.

Thi gian xut hin gia cc bin: Bin kt qu phi xy ra sau hay ng thi vi bin nguyn nhn. - Vng mt cc l gii khc: Khng c l gii khc cho bin kt qu tr bin nguyn nhn c xc nh. Thc nghim l 1 dng nghin cu dng xc nh mi quan h nhn qu ca cc bin trong th trng. Thc nghim bao gm vic iu khin gi tr ca 1 hoc 1 vi bin v o nh hng ca chng ln cc bin khc c s kim sot cht ch cc bin ngoi lai. M hnh thc nghim l cch t ra 1 gi thuyt v lin h nhn qu dng cc kim chng gi thuyt . Cc thut ng: - Bin c lp (Independent/ explanatory variable): bin m ngi nghin cu mun tm nh hng ca n, l bin m c th iu khin, c th thay i, mong mun li ko. - Bin ph thuc (Dependent variable): Bin b nh hng ca bin c lp m nh nghin cu tm cch o lng nh hng ca tc ng ny, l bin m rt t hay khng th iu khin trc tip nhng chng ta quan tm n n. - n v thc nghim (Test Units) - Tc ng (Treatments) - Nhm chu tc ng (Treatment/ Experimental group - EG): Nhm i tng o lng mi quan h nhn qu ca cc bin. - Nhm iu khin (Control group - CG): Nhm i tng kim sot cc nh hng ca bin ngoi lai. - Bin ngoi lai (Extraneous): Cc yu t m c th tc ng n bin ph thuc nhng khng phi l bin c lp, l cc bin tham gia vo qu trnh thc nghim m chng ta khng bit hay khng th kim sot c.
-

Mt qu trnh x l thc nghim bao gm:

Extraneous. Var(s) Test Units Indepentdent. Var(s) X: nhm thc nghim chu tc ng (giai on tc ng vo bin c lp) O: cc o c, quan st (o lng bin ph thuc R: n v thc nghim c chn 1 cch ngu nhin 10 Dependent. Var(s)

K hiu 1 thc nghim: O1XO2

2. Hin trng thc nghim: Hin trng gi (Laboratory experiments): Do nh nghin cu thit k hay to ra hoc m phng theo hin trng tht. Thch hp cho kim chng quan h l thuyt gia cc bin, d kim sot cc bin ngoi lai. Hin trng tht (Field experiments) Thch hp cho vic tng qut ha vn (n/c nhn qu) (Tn km, phc tp, mt nhiu thi gian nhng phn nh c s tht) 3. Gi tr ca thc nghim:

Gi tr ni (Internal validity): c trng cho l gii ca cc bin c lp ln thc nghim khi c cc bin ngoi lai/ Cho bit liu ch c bin c lp tc ng n kt qu hay cn nhiu bin ngoi lai no khc cng tc ng n kt qu. Gi tr ngoi (External validity): c trng cho kh nng tng qut ha kt qu thc nghim ra mi trng bn ngoi/ Cho bit liu kt qu c th ng dng vo tnh hung thc t? Cc loi gi tr trong cc hin trng: Hin trng gi Gi tr ni Gi tr ngoi Cao Thp Hin trng tht Thp Cao

4. Mt s nguyn nhn lm gim gi tr thc nghim: Tnh lch s (History) Tnh li thi (Maturarion) Tnh b cuc (Mortality) Hiu ng th (Testing Effect) Cng c o lng Chn mu chch (Selection bias)

5. Mt s thc nghim c bn: o lng trc v sau i vi nhm kim sot

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EG: R O1XO2 CG: R O3 O4

Hiu ng ca Treatment (TE): (O2 O1) (O4 O3)

Ch o lng sau i vi nhm kim sot

EG: R XO1 CG: O2 Hiu ng ca Treatment (TE) (O2 O1)

Bn nhm Solomon
EG1: R O1XO2 CG1: R O3 O4 EG2: R XO5 CG2: O6 TE = O6 O5 : Hiu ng thc nghim ME = (O4 O6) * (O3 O1): Hiu ng th chnh IE = (O2 O1) (O4 O3) (O5 O6) : Hiu ng h tng

Cc thc nghim ch cho php o lng hiu ng ca 1 bin c lp 1 mc x l. 6. Cc thc nghim cao cp: Cho php o lng hiu ng 1 bin c lp nhiu mc x l khc nhau Thc nghim ngu nhin hon ton (Completely Randomized Design): cho php so snh nhiu mc khc nhau ca 1 bin c lp, vi gi thit cc bin ngoi lai tc ng nh nhau i vi cc n v th. Thc nghim khi ngu nhin (Randomized Block Design): tng t nh thc nghim ngu nhin hon ton, nhng chng cho php ta xt n s khc nhau ca cc hiu ng ngoi lai c nh hng mnh nht.

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Mc x l ca bin c lp Mc bin thin ngoi lai (Block) 1 2 . . . j . . . m 1 X11 X21 Xj1 Xm1 2 . i . k X12 .. X1i X1k X22 .. X2i X2k ..

Xj2 .... Xji Xjk ..

Xm2 ... Xmi Xmk

Thc nghim khi vung latinh (Latin Square Design): cho php ta kim sot 2 bin ngoi lai. iu kin: S mc x l k cc bin c lp = S mc bin thin m cc bin ngoi lai
Bin thin ngoi lai 1 Bin thin ngoi lai 2 1 2 3 1 X2 X1 X3 2 X3 X2 X1 3 X1 X3 X2

Thc nghim tha s (Factorial Design): cho php o c nh hng ca 2 hay nhiu bin c lp cc mc x l khc nhau, khm ph cc tc ng h tng ca cc bin c lp khi xut hin ng thi. 7. Chn loi thc nghim no? Nn cn nhc cc nh hn

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CHNG III:

D LIU CHO NGHIN CU MARKETING

Mc tiu nghin cu

M hnh bi ton

Nhng thng tin cn thit

Lp k hoch nghin cu (research design) Xc nh ngun thng tin

Tm cc ngun thng tin th cp Ni b Bn ngoi

Xc nh ngun thng tin s cp

Qu trnh tm thng tin cho MR I. D LIU TH CP

1. Bn cht: c thu thp v x l phc v cho mc ch no , c th khc vi mc tiu ca ti ang nghin cu. u:
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Chi ph thp Thi gian ngn

c nh nghin cu ngh n trc

Nhc: + Tnh c sn: nhiu trng hp rt t hoc khng c d liu th cp + Tnh thch hp: - Khng chi tit c th - Khng thch hp n v o lng - Tnh cp nht km + Kh xc nh chnh xc/ tin cy - To thng tin hnh thnh vn nghin cu - xut phng php v loi d liu nhm tha mn nhu cu thng tin - C s so snh i chiu v nh gi / din dch cc thng tin s cp.
2. Cc ngun cung cp:

Ngun ni b: S liu k ton, doanh s, khch hng Chi ph sn xut, tn kho Bo co nhn vin bn hng Bo co v ti liu khc Ngun bn ngoi: Cc ngun c s d liu Cc hip hi, bo co nghin cu, hi ngh, Bo, tp ch, Cc t chc Chnh ph, cc thng k, thu, Khc II. D LIU S CP

1. Tng qut:

D liu c thu thp ring cho 1 ti nghin cu c th S dng khi d liu th cp khng hoc khng t yu cu C th thu thp bng 2 nhm phng php: Giao tip thng tin: ngi c kho st s ch ng biu l vn thng qua giao tip trc tip hoc gin vi vi nh nghin cu. Quan st: ngi c kho st hon ton th ng trong qu trnh cung cp d liu.

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 Tnh a dng & linh hot Thi gian & chi ph chnh xc, tin cy

S thun tin cho ngi tr li

Giao tip thng tin Quan st Cao Hn ch C th hi v cm gic, Ch i vi cc bin biu nh, quan im hin Thng nhanh Thng chm t tn hn Tn km hn Ty thuc: Ty thuc: - ti - Phng php - Cch thu thp - Cng c - Bn cht d liu - S trung thc ca ngi tr li Cng 1 d liu th phng php quan st thng s cho kt qu tin cy hn Thng t thun tin Thng thun tin hn

2. Nhm phng php giao tip thng tin (Questioning): Cng c:

Hnh thc Questionnare Cch trin khai

Hnh thc questionnare:

C cu trc (structured) Cu trc Phi cu trc (nonstructured)

Tnh ngy trang (hi kho)

Hi thng Hi gin tip (ngy trang)

Cch trin khai: - Phng vn trc tip (Personal Interview)

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Qua in thoi (Tel. Interview) Qua th tn (Mail Interview)

C th quan st chnh xc cc bin v i tng nghin cu? Yes Quan st c th thc hin trong 1 khong thi gian thch ng hon tt n? Yes Kinh ph c tin hnh mt nghin cu quan st? Yes Tin hnh nhm phng php nghin cu quan st S dng nhm phng php giao tip thng tin No No

No

Chn la gia nhm phng php giao tip thng tin v nhm phng php quan st Tiu chun nh gi Tnh linh hot u im ca cu hi c cu trc C th nghin cu cc tng th khc nhau. Yu cu v kh nng c vit v giao tip ca ngi tr li khng qu cao C th gm nhiu ti trong 1 cuc phng vn / bng cu hi c di cho. Nhc im ca cu hi c cu trc Khng cung cp kin mi nhiu bng cu hi phi cu trc. Khng th c nhng phn hi chi tit v chuyn su

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Thi gian

Chi ph Tnh chnh xc

Mt t thi gian hi p. D liu c chuyn vo my phn tch nhanh chng. Thp hn v yu cu thi gian ghi li v din dch d liu thp hn. t c li trong phng vn v li hi p

Mt nhiu thi gian cho vic thit k

Khng bo m phn hi y v phn hi ng nhng d nh ca ngi tr li

S thun tin cho ngi Thun tin hn v thi tr li gian cn thit v d khi tr li 3. Nhm phng php quan st: Bn phng php T nhin Khng thit b Nhn to Khng thit b T nhin C thit b Nhn to C thit b

4. Sai s khng hi p (Nonresponse Error): Cc nh ngha: - L s khc bit gia nhng ngi hi p v nhng ngi khng hi p khi nhn c cc cu hi phng vn - Khng hi p bao gm: khng tr li hon ton v khng tr li 1 s cu - T l hi p (response rate): t l gia s lng cuc phng vn thnh cng trn tng cc cuc phng vn Khi nghin cu cn lu : - Nng cao t l hi p - Trnh sai s khng hi p Cc bin php lm gim t l khng hi p:

i vi phng vn qua in thoi: Tng s ln gi Ch ni dung v cch trnh by khi phng vn, gii tnh i tng c phng vn Dng qu tng, k thut ln dn (foot in the door), thuyt phc thm Chn thi gian thch hp nht tip xc
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i vi phng vn bng th: Khuyn khch hi p bng th ng Thng bo trc khi gi v nhc nh sau khi gi Ch chiu di questionnaire, cch trnh by, li gii thiu,

5. Phng php Panels: Gm 1 nhm ngi ng cung cp thng tin cho nh nghin cu trong 1 khong thi gian di

Panels lin tc (continuous panels): ngi bo co u n hnh vi ca mnh Panels gin on (interval panels): ngi ng cung cp thng tin khi c yu cu Nhc im: Mc i din cho tng th khng cao Chu nh hng bi s thay i ca cc thnh vin trong panels

CHNG IV:

CHN MU
I. GII THIU CHUNG 1. V sao phi chn mu? Tit kim chi ph Tit kim thi gian Nghin cu trn mu nhiu lc s chnh xc hn Rt cn thit trong nhng kho st dn n s ph hoi hoc thay i thuc tnh ca i tng. 2. Cc khi nim c bn: Tng th (population): Chnh l th trng m nh nghin cu mun nghin cu tha mn mc ch v phm vi nghin cu ca mnh. Tng th nghin cu: Qui m ca tng th m chng ta c th c c thc hin vic nghin cu.

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n v ly mu (sampling unit): thun tin trong nhiu k thut chn mu, ngi ta chia tng th thnh nhiu nhm c tnh cht cn thit. Nhng nhm c c sau 1 qu trnh chia nh tng th gi l n v ly mu. o n vi ly mu s cp ch nhng nhm c chia ln th nht. o n vi ly mu th cp ch nhng nhm c chia ln th hai, ba Phn t (element): i tng cn thu thp thng tin. o N: S lng phn t trong tng th. o n: S lng phn t trong mu. Khung mu (sampling frame): S / danh sch/ h thng m nh nghin cu da vo c th ly ra c n v ly mu.
3. Qu trnh chn mu:

C 5 bc B1: nh ngha tng th & phn t B2: Xc nh khung ly mu B3: Xc nh kch thc mu B4: Xc nh qui trnh c th chn cc phn t B5: Tin hnh ly mu theo qui trnh chn
Xc nh tng th, n v mu v phn t Xc nh khung mu

Xc nh kch thc mu

Xc nh qui trnh ly mu

Ly mu

S qui trnh ly mu
4. Phn loi qui trnh chn mu: Chn mu xc xut: bit trc xc sut xut hin ca cc phn t trong

tng th. Qu trnh chn mu tun theo qui lut ton, khng th t thay i.
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Chn mu phi xc sut: khng bit xc sut xut hin ca cc phn t. Chn mu ty thuc vo nh gi ch quan ca nh nghin cu. Tm tt cc qui trnh ly mu:
Qui trnh ly mu

Ly mu phi xc sut Ly mu thun tin (convenience) Ly mu phn on (judgment) Ly mu theo lp (quota) Ly mu theo mm (snow ball)

Ly mu xc sut

Ngu nhin n gin (simple random) Phn tng (stratified random) Theo nhm (cluster / systematic)

II.

CHN MU THEO XC SUT (PROBABILITY)

1. Chn mu ngu nhin n gin:

Cc phn t c chn vo mu c xc sut l nh nhau u im: n gin khi c 1 khung mu hon chnh Nhc im: Kh c danh sch y cc phn t trong tng th Kh thc hin khi tng th ln, mu nh.
2. Chn mu phn tng ngu nhin (stratified random)

Tng th c chia ra nhiu tng theo nguyn tc: cng tng ng nht, khc tng d bit. S phn t trong mi tng c chn c th theo t l hoc khng theo t l. a. Phn tng ngu nhin theo t l: S phn t trong mi tng t l vi qui m ca mi tng trong tng th. Thng s phn t trong mi tng c chn theo ngu nhin n gin. b. Phn tng ngu nhin khng theo t l:
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S dng khi: phn tn cc phn t trong mi tng khc nhau S phn t trong mi tng c chn ph thuc vo phn tn cc tng. 3. Chn mu theo nhm (cluster sampling): Tng th c chia lm nhiu nhm loi tr nhau (mi nhm mang tnh i din cho tng th) v tun theo nguyn tc: cng nhm d bit, khc nhm ng nht. Cc nhm s c chn 1 cch ngu nhin to thnh mu Trong trng hp sau khi phn nhm, tip tc chn la cc phn t trong nhm gi l chn mu theo nhm 2 bc (two stage cluster sampling). 4. Chn mu theo h thng (systematic sampling): Chn 1 im xut pht u tin ngu nhin, da vo bc nhy (sampling interval) (Bc nhy = N/n) xc nh cc phn t tip theo y l phng php s dng ph bin hn phng php ngu nhin n gin u im: khng cn khung mu hon chnh Nhc im: mu s b lch khi khung mu xp theo chu k v tn s bng vi bc nhy. 5. Chn mu theo khu vc: Ging nh chn mu theo nhm, nhng cc nhm c chia theo khu vc a l. III. CHN MU PHI XC SUT (NON PROBABILITY)

1. Chn mu thun tin: Da trn s thun tin, d tip cn, d ly thng tin. Nhc im: - Khng xc nh c sai s ly mu, s khc bit ca cc thng s mu, tng th. - Khng th kt lun cho tng th t kt qu mu. S dng thch hp cho nghin cu khm ph Khi b gii hn v thi gian v chi ph
2. Chn mu theo phn on (judgment):

Cc phn t c chn theo phn on ca nh nghin cu c im ging nh chn mu thun tin, nhng nu kh nng phn on tt s cho mu tt hn thun tin.

22

3. Chn mu theo lp (quota sampling): Da vo 1 s c trng kim sot (control characteristics), xc nh 1 s phn t sao cho chng m bo t l ca tng th v cc c trng kim sot.
4. Chn mu theo mm (snow ball):

Chn ngu nhin nhng ngi phng vn ban u, nhng ngi tip theo c chn da trn s gii thiu ca ngi trc. S dng thch hp khi: tng th t, kh nhn ra cc i tng cn thu thp thng tin. IV. XC NH C MU (SAMPLING SIZE)

Qui trnh xc nh c mu bao gm 6 bc:

Xc nh sai s e chp nhn gia c lng ca mu v tng th Xc nh tin cy mun c trong c lng mu nm trong sai s e c tnh lch chun ca tng th Xc nh gi tr Z tng ng vi tin cy mun c quyt nh Dng cng thc thng k tng ng

Tnh c mu

1. Trng hp tnh theo gi tr trung bnh ca cc bin lin tc (4 bc): B1: Xc nh sai s e cho php: ph thuc vo nhy ca kt qu quyt nh i vi bin c lng ang kho st

23

B2: Xc nh tin cy mun c B3: c tnh lch chun ca mu (s) (c nhiu cch) - Tin hnh nghin cu th im, s dng lch chun ca kt qu nghin cu th im - Da vo kt qu ca nhng nghin cu trc c mu tng t - S dng cng thc theo qui tc 3 : = B4: S dng cng thc tnh mu
n = (Z * S) 2 e2 Max Min 6

Nu n > 10% tng th th tnh li theo cng thc:

N * Z 2 * S2 N * e 2 + S2 * Z 2

2. C mu trong trng hp tnh theo t l ca mu: Z, e: xc nh tng t nh trn C mu c tnh theo cng thc:
Z2 p * q * e2

Nu n > 10%:
N * p * q * Z2 n = N * e2 + p * q * Z2

Trong : p: c lng tn s xut hin ca hin tng q=1p 3. C mu trong chn mu phi xc sut:

24

Quyt nh chn mu phi xc sut thng c thc hin 1 cch ch quan Yu t then cht cho vic la chn l thi gian v ti chnh. 4. Nhng lu khi xc nh c mu: Kho st 1 v nhiu tham s T l hi p Phng php phn tch d liu.

CHNG V:

K THUT O V THU THP D LIU

I. KHI NIM CHUNG

1. nh ngha: o c trong MR: bao gm vic gn cc con s cho cc mc khc nhau ca cc thuc tnh hay s kin, sao cho chng tun theo 1 qui lut nh trc. o c c ngha khi: mc thuc tnh n/c tng thch vi qui lut h thng s s dng Thng cn tm hiu, m t qui lut / quan h gia cc khi nim l thuyt (theoretical concept). Cn o mc cc thuc tnh ca i tng Nhng thuc tnh ch th hin thng qua nhng biu hin thc t (empirical variable) do cn m bo s tng thch gia thc t v l thuyt
H l thuyt H thc tin

H thu gn o c / quan st

H thng s o v thang o

H thng s s dng nh l cc k hiu. Cc quan h ca chng c qui nh bi bn cht cc mi quan h ca bin kho st o c trong MR phc tp hn trong cc n/c khoa hc t nhin
25

Marketing lin quan n thi , hnh vi nn i khi phi s dng cc thang o thp hn (thang o s hc thng thng). CC LOI THANG O

II.

C 4 loi thang o thng dng

1. Thang o ch danh (norminal scale):

n gin nht, cc gi tr ch l tng trng nh 1 nhn / tn ca i tng o Yu cu s dng: phi tun theo nh x 1 1, khng cng 1 gi tr biu hin 2 s kin / i tng khc nhau. 2. Thang th t (ordinal scale): Th hin quan h th t gia cc i tng. Xc nh c s nhiu/ t hn ca 1 thuc tnh, nhng khng xc nh c mc Lu : Kt qu n/c khng thay i khi s dng cc dy gi tr khc nhau th hin cc mc th t Gi tr mean khng c ngha i vi thang th t. 3. Thang o khong cch (interval scale): o lng mc / xp hng i tng vi khong cch thang o ng bng khong cch khc bit ca i tng, khng c gi tr gc (0 l gi tr gn ghp ch quan) Thang khong cch = Thang th t + iu kin v khong cch bng nhau. 4. Thang o t l (ratio scale): Ging nh thang o khong cch, nhng gi tr gc l gi tr tuyt i (0 khng phi l gi tr gn ghp ch quan) Gi tr 0 l trng thi khng tn ti ca thuc tnh ang o Tm tt cc loi thang o: Thang o Danh ngha Th t Khong cch T l c im nh ngha duy nht cho mi s: 0, 1, 2, Th t cc con s 0 < 1< 2< 3 Khong cch bng nhau (7 6) = (3 2) S tng ng ca cc i tng c th o Nhn hiu, gii tnh, loi ca hng, Thi , tng lp, s a thch, Thi , kin, cc ch s, Tui, tp ch, doanh thu,
26

t s 4/2 = 10/5 III. THANG O THI

th phn,

1. Bn cht ca thi : Thi l qu trnh din tin v nhn thc ca c nhn v 1 i tng / s kin no da trn kin thc, nh gi v c khuynh hng ch o hnh vi C 3 thnh phn chnh: - Nhn thc (cognitive component): s hiu bit ca 1 ngi i vi 1 i tng / thuc tnh no (awareness, knowledge) - nh hng (affective component): cm gic ca 1 ngi i vi i tng (Linking, Preference) - Hnh vi (behavioral component): trng thi sn lng hi p li i tng (Intension, Action) L khi nim quan trng trong MR, gia thi v hnh vi c lin quan vi nhau. C th da vo thi d on hnh vi ca khch hng trong tng lai. 2. o thi : Da trn 2 nhm: Da trn trao i vi i tng (communications) - T bo co (self report): yu cu i tng t ni ln cm xc ca mnh, bng cch tr li cc cu hi trong questionnaire - Phn x li nhng kch hot (stimuli): cho i tng xem tranh v yu cu t li cm tng ca mnh - Yu cu i tng nh hay ghi li nhng thng tin cung cp Da trn quan st i tng (observation) - Hnh vi bn ngoi: a i tng vo tnh hung th quan st cc phn x li ca h - Phn x tm l: cho xem sn phm hoc qung co, o cc phn x tm l ca h (nhm t bo co c dng ph bin nht) 3. Cc thang o thuc nhm t bo co: a. Thang ch danh (nominal) VD: bn c thch mu qung co ny khng? 1. C 2. Khng

3. Khng bit

27

b. Thang o mc (rating scale): Ordinal, interval, ratio

(graphic) Rt xu 0 + Rt

1 Rt thch

2 Thch

5 Khng thch

6 Rt khng thch

Trung bnh

Mt s yu t lin quan n vic chn: - S loi trong thang o (bao nhiu, chn, l) - Cn i / khng cn i (rt xu rt tt) - Verbal description of categories - Forced / nonforced scale c. Thang o a bin (multiple item scale): Loi thang o bao gm ln hn 2 cu hi bao quanh khi nim / thuc tnh cn o Gm 1 s loi nh: Thang Likert (Summated rating scale): gm 1 lot cc pht biu nh gi v thuc tnh ca i tng Thi c xc nh bng cch cng cc im tr li ca cc cu hi thnh phn Thang Semantic Differential: gm 1 chui cc cp tnh t / nhm t mang tnh i lp nhau (bipolar adjectival words) m t thuc tnh / s vt. Phn tr li c chia lm 6 mc nhng khng gn s trn mi mc Cch tnh im cng ging nh tnh cho thang o thi Thang Stapel scale: thc cht l 1 bin thi ca Semantic Differential scale. Trong : - Mi cu hi ch c 1 t din t thuc tnh cu hi - Mi cu hi c 10 mc tr li - Mi mc c gn bng s

28

Nu 1 n/c c hng dn tt th 3 loi thang Likert, Semantic Differential v Stapel cho kt qu tng t nhau. Chn la thang no ty thuc vo tng trng hp c th. Lu : Trong cc loi thang trn, cho kt qu cao nht l thang interval (khong cch) C th hiu chnh cc thang a bin ph hp vi thc t. IV. SAI LCH TRONG O C

1. Cc sai lch: Bao gm 2 phn: Sai lch c h thng: xy ra cho mi i tng o, nguyn nhn do thit b o (method bias) hoc do ngi c o (social desirability responses) Sai lch do ngu nhin: xy ra ngu nhin cho 1 s ln o Tng qut trong MR c cc sai lch sau:
Sampling errors

Nonresponse errors

Measurement errors

Non Sampling errors

Tot errors

Random errors

Systematic errors

Omitted Variable Biases

Method errors

Systematic Respondent errors

Cc loi errors trong Marketing 2. Khi nim gi tr (Validity) v tin cy (Reliabitity)

29

 gi tr ca 1 php o: c trng cho mc m php o trnh c c sai s h thng v ngu nhin gi tr c lin quan n cu hi: C phi chng ta o ci m chng ta ngh l cn o? tin cy ca php o: c trng cho mc m php o trnh c sai s ngu nhin tin cy c lin quan n tnh chnh xc, nht qun ca kt qu

a. nh gi gi tr ca php o

Xt n cc loi gi tr sau: - gi tr khi nim (Construct Validity) - gi tr ni dung (Content Validity or Face Validity) - gi tr ng thi (Concurent Validity) - gi tr d bo (Predictive Validity). b. nh gi tin cy ca php o (Reliability) Xt n cc loi tin cy sau: - tin cy kim chng trc / sau (Test / retest Reliability) - tin cy hnh thc (Alternative Forms Reliability) - tin cy bn phn (Split Half Reliability). V. THIT K TRIN KHAI QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Qu trnh: Thit k questionnaire va mang tnh khoa hc / ngh thut, trong kinh nghim thc t gi vai tr rt quan trng. Cc giai on thit k questionnaire: a. Bt u t vn cn gii quyt thng tin cn thu thp, thang o.
b. Chuyn cc nhu cu thng tin thnh b cu hi th. 30

c. Kim tra hnh thc cu hi: v cu trc, thang o - Kim tra cch dng t ng, cu vn, trnh gy nhm ln - Kim tra th t sp xp cu hi - Kim tra cch b tr & hnh thc trnh by cc cu hi. d. Th nghim trc (Pre test) - R sot li ton b (cc yu t nu (b); tnh thch hp so vi yu cu, mc tiu, phm vi n/c, c s l thuyt; phng php phn tch s dng) - Nh 1 s chuyn vin gp (5 10 ngi), yu cu phi c kin thc chuyn mn v lnh vc n/c, thit k questionnaire - Trin khai th 1 s i tng tht (kim tra v t ng s dng, chiu di, hnh thc trnh by, cc hng tr li cha lng c).
e. Sa i, ci tin v trin khai

Lp li cc qu trnh nu trn cho n khi nhn c 1 questionnaire tt vi cc gi tr & tin cy c ci thin Tin hnh trin khai tht.

2. Mt s chi tit lin quan: a. Chiu di questionnaire (s lng cu hi) - Ph thuc yu cu thng tin cn thu thp - sn lng v thi gian ca ngi tr li - Khng nn ko di qu 30 pht, thch hp l 15 20 pht.
b. Kiu cu hi Cu hi m hay ng ty theo tnh hung.

c. Cc cu hi v c nhn v cu hi t nh Li khuyn: - Nn t cui bng questionnaire (tui, hc vn, thu nhp, ), tr trng hp s dng lc i tng - Trnh t cu hi nn i t n gin phc tp, tng qut chi tit - Cc cu hi t nh nn t gn cui. d. Trnh t 1 bn cu hi thng thng - Dng nhng cu hi n gin v gy ch / thch th trc tin - Phng php hi thu hp dn (tng qut chi tit) - Thn trng vi cc cu hi phn nhnh - Cc cu hi phn loi cui - Cc cu hi t nh cui.

31

CHNG VI:

PHN TCH D LIU

I. X L D LIU 1. Hiu chnh (Editing): a. Hiu chnh s b (Priliminary / Field Edit) -

Mc tiu: m bo th tc phng vn ph hp Sa cha cc sai st khi ly s liu thc a Cc sai st thng gp: Ngi c phng vn khng ph hp Tr li khng y Cu tr li khng r hay khng ng (quan trng i vi nhng cu hi m).

b. Hiu chnh cui cng (Final / Office Edit) Mc tiu: xc nh chnh xc v tnh nht qun ca d liu i hi ngi hiu chnh phi c nhiu kinh nghim, kin thc. Mt s sai st c th nhn bit c nh hiu chnh: - Qu trnh cng tc thc a khng ng - Phng vn khng hon chnh - Cc cuc phng vn khng thch hp - Vn k thut trong questionnaire hoc phng vn - Ngi tr li c sn lng hp tc hay khng? - Tnh nht qun. 2. M ha (Coding): Cc bc m ha: Chuyn cc chn la tr li ca mi cu hi thnh tp cc loi (categories) ph hp, c ngha - Cu hi ng
32

Lu : - Thang o ca bin ty thuc vo cch hi v bn cht ca bin c hi - Cu hi 1 chn la - Cu hi nhiu chn la.

Cu hi m Cu hi c la chn: Khc Khng bit / Khng r Gn m s cho mi loi: s ha cc tr li

To tp tin d liu Ci bin tp d liu. PHN TCH S B

II.

Xu hng trung tm (Central tendency) phn tn (Dispersion) Tm tt cc loi thng s thng k nn s dng: Bin loi Danh nh Xu hng trung tm Mode (yu v): Tr li c tn sut cao nht Khng c C th c khi nim v phn tn khi xt n s phn b tn sut ca cc cu tr li Khong (range) Khong phn trm (interqualile range) lch deviation) lch deviation) chun chun (standard (standard phn tn

Th t

Median (trung v): Cu tr li khong 50%

Khong T l

Mean (trung bnh) Mean (trung bnh)

1. Bng 1 chiu (One way Tabulation): Dng trnh by phn phi d liu ca 1 bin c thang o nominal hoc ordinal VD: Response Category 1 Frequency 1 Percentage Cum. Percentage
33

2 3 4 5

3 45 120 92 261

1 18 46 35 100 %

1 19 65 100

Li ch: Pht hin 1 s dng sai st khi m ha Sao snh vi cc phn phi / d liu c lin quan ngh nhng phng php bin i cc bin ban u sang cc bin mi hu ch hn Kim tra sampling. 2. Bng 2 chiu (Two way Tabulation): Kho st mc v bn cht ca cc mi lin h (c th c) gia cc cp bin Thch hp cho cc trng hp s loi trong mi bin khng ln, thang o nominal hoc ordinal Nhc im: - Ch nh hng, khng kt lun v mi quan h nhn qu gia cc bin - Kt qu c th b sai lch nu cc c kch thc nh - i khi c nhiu yu t khc tc ng ln kt qu bng 2 chiu c th to ra mi quan h gi to. III. KIM NGHIM GI THUYT

Kim chng xem nhng pht biu no c thch hp cho tng th nghin cu hay khng Cc phn tch lin quan n kim nghim gi thuyt gi l phn tch suy lun (inferential analysis) 1. Cc bc kim nghim gi thuyt: B1: Thit lp gi thuyt H0 (khng c s khc bit gia phn phi ca mu v phn tch ca tng th) v H1 B2: Xc nh bn cht ca ng cong phn phi mu v xc nh cc gi tr kim nghim thng k ph hp (test statistic) B3: Xc nh kim nghim 1 hay 2 pha (one / two tail) B4: Chn trc mc ngha (significance level), tnh gi tr ti hn (critical value) cho cc gi tr kim nghim thng k B5: Pht biu qui trnh bc b gi thuyt H0
34

B6: Tnh gi tr kim nghim thng k t s liu mu B7: Dng qui lut ra B5 chp nhn / bc b gi thuyt H0 2. Tng qut v cc phng php phn tch v kim nghim: Quyt nh la chn phng php phn tch d liu da vo 2 yu t chnh: - S bin c phn tch (n bin, nh bin, a bin) - Bn cht d liu c thu thp cho mi bin (non parametric / parametric) Loi Test Mc ch chnh Minh ha Non parametric Tests: Chi Square Phn phi ca bin nominal Phn phi ca mu bin quan st c c khc bit ngh nghip c tng t ng k so vi phn phi k nh phn phi ngh nghip ca vng khng? tng th khng? KolmogorovSmirnov Phn bin ca bin ordinal quan st c c khc bit ng k so vi phn phi k vng khng? Phn phi ca mu bin tui c tng t nh phn phi tui ca tng th hay khng? Kim nghim trung bnh thi gian ch c tnh tin siu th c lu hn ng k so vi 10 pht khng?

Parametric Tests: Kim nghim gi Kim nghim gi thit so tr trung bnh n snh gia gi tr trung bnh ca tng th vi gi tr nh trc

Kim nghim t Kim nghim gi thit so C phi t l s h TP.HCM l n snh gia t l ca tng th c TV ln hn ng k so vi vi 1 gi tr nh trc 50%? Kim nghim 2 Kim nghim gi thit so C phi chi ph cho thuc men tr trung bnh snh gi tr trung bnh tng bnh qun u ngi th ca 2 tng th khc nhau TP.HCM cao hn ng k so vi H Ni khng? Kim nghim 2 tr trung bnh khi cc mu ph thuc(dependent) Kim nghim gi thit so snh 2 tr trung bnh tng th ca cng 1 bin khi d liu kim nghim c thu thp t cng 1 tp n v mu Trn c s d liu thu thp c t 1 nhm cc h gia nh trc v sau 1 chin dch qung co sn phm ABC. C phi lng mua bnh qun thay i ng k trc v sau khi qung co?

Kim chng 2 t Kim nghim so snh t l C phi t l s h c 2 ngi

35

tng th ca 1 bin trong 2 i lm TP.HCM thp hn tng th khc nhau H Ni?

3. Kim nghim Chi Square: Kim tra xem phn phi quan st c c khc (ng k) so vi phn phi k vng khng? Cc bc tin hnh (7 bc): B1: Pht biu gi thuyt H0, Ha B2: Xc nh thng k kim nghim Chi Square (d liu dng bin ch danh, thang o non parametric) B3: Xc nh kim nghim 1 hay 2 pha (Chi Square test lun l 1 pha) B4: Xc nh gi tr ti hn ca kim nghim thng k (mc ngha () v bc t do (df))
Df = k 1 (k l s loi danh nh c th chn trong bin ch danh)

Tra bng Chi Square chun 2 B5: Pht biu cc qui lut: Bc b H0 nu 2 (tnh c) > 2C (ti hn) (tra bng) B6: Xc nh gi tr kim nghim theo cng thc

i=1

(Oi Ei)2 Ei

Oi: gi tr quan st Ei: gi tr k vng ca s ln xut hin 2 cng ln th H0 cng d b bc b Ngha l c s khc bit gia phn phi ca mu v phn phi ca tng th Lu : trong Chi Square lun tnh s ln xut hin, khng tnh tn sut hay t l ca mi loi la chn B7: Bc b hay chp nhn gi thuyt H0 da trn tiu chun ra B5 Ch : Kim nh Chi Square khng c ngha khi s ln xut hin k vng qu nh (s ln xut hin k vng cho mi la chn phi nn n 5).

36

4. Kim nghim 1 gi tr trung bnh: Mc ch: xem bng trn iu kin thang o: khong hoc t l Nu c mu < 30 dng t test S t =

T v df = n 1 tra bng tC Nu t > tC bc b H0 5. Kim nghim 1 gi tr t l: 6. Kim nghim cho 2 gi tr trung bnh IV. KIM NGHIM TNG QUAN V HI QUI TUYN TNH

Phng php Trng hp p dng Minh ha Chi Square Kho st quan h gia 2 bin Quan h gia mc thu nhp Contingency th t hay ch danh (cao, trung bnh, thp) vi vic Test chn / khng chn mua hp c ghi date H s tng Kho st mc lin h gia Quan h gia xp hng khuyn quan Spearman 2 tp th hng ca 2 bin khch nhn vin bn hng (mc (Ordinal) 1, 2, 3, , 10) v thm thnh tch (1, 2, 3, , 10) H s tng Kho st mc lin h gia Quan h gia tui ca khch quan Pearson 2 bin metric (khong hay t hng v chi ph hng thng cho l) thuc / y t Hi qui gin Hi qui bi n Khi mun xy dng 1 hm Doanh thu (ng) theo chi ph tuyn tnh gia 2 bin (ph qung co thuc nhau) metric Tng t hi qui n gin Doanh thu l hm tuyn tnh nhng c nhiu hn 2 bin theo chi ph qung co v gi c lp bn sn phm

37

1. Kim nghim Chi Square (Chi Square contingency test): Mc ch: xc nh s tn ti mi quan h gia 2 bin danh nh / th t Yu cu: - Khng c no c s ln xut hin k vng < 1 - Khng qu 1/5 tng s c s ln xut hin < 5 Hn ch: - Ch xc nh c quan h hay khng, khng cho bit mc tng quan - Khng thch hp cho kim tra d liu cng 1 bin nhng c thu thp thi im khc nhau H s Contingency: h s b sung vo kim nghim Chi Square bit mc quan h gia 2 bin.

2
n + 2

c = 0: khng c quan h c khng c chn trn kh din dch

Thng dng h s thng k Cramer:

2
n (f 1)

v = 0: khng c quan h v = 1: c quan h hon ho

2. H s tng quan Spearman (rS):

Xc nh mi tng quan gia cc bin th t (ordinal). 3. H s tng quan Pearson (hay h s product moment): Xc nh mc tng quan gia cc bin metric Lu : Hai bin phi c phn phi chun nh bin Phng sai ca 1 bin ti bt k gi tr no ca bin kia cng phi bng nhau Khi r nh khng c ngha l khng tng quan, m ch khng tng quan tuyn tnh Khi r ln ch cho thy mi tng quan, khng xc nh quan h nhn qu. 4. Phn tch hi qui tuyn tnh: Phn tch 2 bin: Hi qui tuyn tnh n

38

y = aX + b Nhiu hn 2 bin: Hi qui tuyn tnh bi y = a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 + + anXn + b * S khc bit gia hi qui v tng quan: Hi qui tuyn tnh Tng quan To ra 1 phng trnh ton hc lin kt Pht hin ra mc tng quan gia 2 cc bin li bin Tn ti gi thit nhn qu: Bin c lp Bin ph thuc Khng c gi thit v nhn qu

nh gi m hnh v kt qu hi qui (3 phn): - Mc ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui: Dng h s R2 (coefficient of determination) R2 = 0 1 c trng cho t l % ca bin thin trong bin ph thuc, c gii thch do s bin thin ca (cc) bin c lp - Kim nghim mc ngha ca R2: Dng F test t do: df = n k 1 cho mu s df = k cho t s (n: c mu, k: s bin c lp trong phng trnh) - Kim nghim mc ngha ca cc dc: Dng t test vi t do df = n k 1 Mt s lu : - Phn tch hi qui tuyn tnh ch c ngha khi c tng quan tuyn tnh gia cc bin - R2 khng ni ln c quan h nhn qu gia cc bin - C th d on sai nu nm ngoi khon tnh ton - m bo tin cy phi c nhiu hn 10 im cho mi bin c lp a vo phng trnh - Khong dao ng (range) cc bin c th nh hng n ngha phng trnh hi qui. Vn a cng tuyn (Multicolinearity) a cng tuyn l tnh trng hin hu mi tng quan tuyn tnh gia 2 bin c lp Khi phn tch hi qui bi cn lu n vn a cng tuyn nh hng ca a cng tuyn: hn ch gi tr R2, lm sai lch hay i du cc h s m t tc ng ca cc bin c lp. Kim nghim cc gi thuyt ca phng php hi qui Xem xt:
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Quan h tuyn tnh gia cc bin (Linearity) Thnh phn sai s c lch khng i (Constant Variance of the Error Term ) hay (Homoscedasticity) Tnh c lp ca cc thnh phn sai s (Independence of the Error Terms) Phn phi chun (Normality) ca thnh phn sai s v ca mi bin (Error Term & Individual Variables)

CHNG VII: BO CO KT QU NGHIN CU Bo co kt qu nghin cu l giai on cui ca qu trnh nghin cu. y l 1 giai on quan trng gip cho ngi c hiu v s dng thch ng cc gi tr nghin cu I. CC NGUYN TC CHNH 1. Ch n i tng c / nghe: - Ni dung bo co - T ng s dng - Cch minh ha - Cch thuyt minh 2. Trnh by r mc tiu v nhu cu thng tin: Bo co c tc dng truyn t thng tin n ngi RQ Trnh by r rng cc mc tiu, nhu cu thng tin, kt qu, cc vn qun l, xut 3. Trnh by ngn gn, chnh xc v y : Cc nh RQ khng thch c chi tit, din di di dng Thng tin trnh by cn c chn lc, ngn gn, chnh xc v y 4. Tnh khch quan: Bo co phi trung thc vi cc kt qu tm c (fact) Cc trng hp lin quan n nhn nh, phn on ch quan ca ngi tr li th cn nu r 5. Vn phong: Cu ngn gn, t thng dng, khch quan Trnh vit tt, vit tho Dng th hin ti Dng th th ng Tn dng bng, hnh, th minh ha Thng nht cc ghi ch, ti liu tham kho II. NI DUNG MT BO CO C th lin h hot ty theo trng hp. Thng bao gm: 1. Trang ba: Nu cc chi tit: - Ta n/c - Tn ngi / t chc thc hin - Tn / t chc c bo co
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- Ngy 2. Tm tt (Executive Summary): Nu tm tt ngn gn cc ni dung chnh ca bo co (ch nu nhng thng tin c ngha quan trng nht nh qun l RQ). C th: - Mc tiu n/c - Bn cht vn cn RQ - Cc kt qu ch yu - Kt lun ( kin, din dch ca ngi n/c) - Cc kin ngh 3. Mc lc (k c mc lc bng biu): Ghi y , theo trnh t cc mc trong bo co, km theo s trang 4. Gii thiu: Nu r c s v bn cht vn RQ Mc tiu n/c v phm vi Nhng n/c trc y 5. Phng php: M t bn cht ca thit k nghin cu K hoch ly mu Qui trnh thu thp v x l d liu Ch n i tng c m phn ny trong ni dung chnh hay ph lc (i tng cung cp l cc nh qun l th nn vit ngn gn) 6. Kt qu: Nn sp xp theo mc tiu n/c v nhu cu thng tin Cc thng tin phi t chc, trnh by theo trnh t (flow) cht ch & logic Phn bit gia cc s kin v din dch, cn c cc minh ha cho din dch nhng khng lm dng 7. Cc hn ch: Nu r cc hn ch c th gy nh hng n gi tr ca kt qu Thng cc hn ch nh: - C mu v thu thp d liu - Phn tch d liu - Nhc im ca phng php 8. Kt lun v kin ngh: Cn din t lin mch vi phn kt qu Lin h nhng kt qu tm c vi nhng nhu cu thng tin, mc tiu nghin cu Kin ngh c 2 quan im: - Da theo kt qu thng tin, kinh nghim a ra kin ngh - Khng nn a ra nhng kin ngh ch quan d lm lch lc cho ngi nhn thng tin

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