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Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

LI M U

Th vin i Hc Duy Tn c chc nng phc v hot ng o to, nghin


cu khoa hc, trin khai ng dng khoa hc cng ngh v qun l ca nh trng.
Hng nm b sung thay th ti liu, gio trnh phc v ging dy - hc tp v
nghin cu khoa hc, lm tt thng tin khoa hc, thng tin th vin n bn c.
Nhm nng cao cht lng phc v ca th vin trng i Hc Duy Tn v
h tr trong vic hc tp nghin cu ca sinh vin, chng ti chn ti Nhng
yu t nh hng n s ln sinh vin n th vin. ti c nghin cu da
trn 80 phiu thm d, pht ngu nhin phng hc 307 Phan Thanh, trng i
Hc Duy Tn.
Mong rng ti nghin cu ny s gip th vin hot ng hiu qu hn.
Vi nng lc c hn ca nhm nn chc chc s cn nhng thiu st trong bi
bo co ny, rt mong nhn c s ng gp kin ca thy v cc bn bi
bo co c hon chnh hn.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

MC LC
A. LI M U
B. NI DUNG
I. THIT LP M HNH
1. Bin ph thuc
2. Bin c lp
3 . M hnh tng th
4. D on k vng gia cc bin
5. M hnh hi quy mu
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy
II. KHONG TIN CY
1. Khong tin cy ca

2. Khong tin cy ca

3. Khong tin cy ca

4. Khong tin cy ca

5. Khong tin cy ca

6. Khong tin cy ca

7. Khong tin cy ca

8. Khong tin cy ca

9. Khong tin cy ca

10. Khong tin cy ca

10

11. Khong tin cy ca

11

12. Khong tin cy ca

12

III. KIM NH
1. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
2. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
3. Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn

a. Pht hin a cng tuyn


SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

b. Khc phc hin tng a cng tuyn


4. Kim nh hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i
Pht hin hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i
5. Kim nh hin tng t tng quan
a. Pht hin hin tng t tng quan
b. Khc phc t tng quan
c. M hnh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan
6. Kim nh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan
IV. KIM NH BIN KHNG CN THIT
V. KIM NH BIN B B ST
VI. M HNH HON CHNH
1. ngha ca cc h s hi quy
2. Khong tin cy
a. Khong tin cy ca

b. Khong tin cy ca

c. Khong tin cy ca

d. Khong tin cy ca

e. Khong tin cy ca

f. Khong tin cy ca

g. Khong tin cy ca

h. Khong tin cy ca

i. Khong tin cy ca
k. Khong tin cy ca
l. Khong tin cy ca

9
11
12

3. Kim nh
a. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
b. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
VII . THNG K M T (BNG PH LC 4)
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

BIN Y
BIN KHNG GIAN
BIN THIT B
BIN S LNG SCH
BIN CHNG LOI
BIN THI GIAN
BIN THI QUEN
BIN TNG
BIN THI
VIII. HN CH
IX . XUT
C. LI CM N

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

TI LIU THAM KHO


- Gio trnh kinh t lng, Nguyn Quang Cng, Khoa KHTN, Trng H Duy
Tn.
- Bi tiu lun nhm ca nhm 9, K17 22C2, H Ngoi Thng.
- Bi tiu lun nhm ca lp K13QTC1, H Duy Tn.
- Bi tp kinh t lng vi s tr gip ca EVIEWS, Khoa Ton Thng K, B
Mn Ton Kinh T, Trng i hc Kinh t TP HCM.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

I- THIT LP M HNH :
1. Bin ph thuc:
Y : s ln sinh vin n th vin
(n v tnh: ln)
2. Bin c lp:
o

GT: Gii tnh

KG: Khng gian

TB: Thit b

SL: S lng

CL: Chng loi

TG: Thi gian

TQ: Thi quen

VT: V tr

TA: tng

TD: Thi

YK: kin
3. M hnh tng th:

Yi =

+ 9 VT +

GT +

10

TA +

KG +
11

TD +

TB +
12

SL + 6 CL +

TG +

TQ

YK + Ui

4. D on k vng gia cc bin:

3 dng: Khi khng gian cng rng ri th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin


cng tng.

4 dng: Khi thit b tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin cng tng.


5 dng: Khi s lng u sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin
cng tng.

dng: : Khi chng loi sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin

cng tng.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

dng: Khi thi gian cho mn sch tng ln th s ln n th vin ca

sinh vin tng.

10

m: Khi tng gim th s ln n th vin ca sinh vin tng.

11

dng:Khi thi ca nhn vin th vin thn thin hn th s ln n

th vin ca sinh vin tng.


5. M hnh hi quy mu:

Yi = 1.454701 - 0.170464 GT - 0.052047 KG - 0.067394 TB - 0.001363 SL 0.136230 CL + 0.150395 TG + 0.356642 TQ + 0.113038 VT + 0.017496 TA +
0.031858 TD -0.185579 YK + ei
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy:

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca sinh vin t gi

tr nh nht l 1.454701 ln.

^:

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca n ln hn nam

0.170464 ln.

^
3 :

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, khng gian tng gim 1 mc th s ln

n th vin gim, tng 0.052047 ln (khc vi k vng)

^:

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thit b tng, gim 1 loi th s ln n th

vin gim, tng 0.067394 ln (khc vi k vng).

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s lng u sch tng, gim 1 mc

th s ln n th vin gim, tng 0.001363 ln (khc vi k vng).

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, chng loi sch tng, gim 1 loi th s

ln n th vin gim, tng 0.136230 ln. (khc vi k vng)

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi gian cho mn sch thay i th s

ln n th vin chnh lch 0.15039 ln.

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi quen thay i th s ln n th vin

chnh lch 0.356642 ln.

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu v tr thch hp th s ln n th vin

ln hn 0.113038 ln so vi v tr khng thch hp.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

^
10

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s tng tng, gim 1 tng th s ln n

th vin tng, gim 0.017496 ln (khc vi k vng).

^
11

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu thi ca nhn vin tng, gim 1

mc thn thin th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.031858 ln.

^
12

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu sinh vin c kin ng gp th s

ln n th vin t hn 0.185579 ln so vi sinh vin khi khng a ra kin.


II. KHONG TIN CY

- t 2 (n-k)*se(

+ t 2 (n-k)*se(

( vi t 2 (n-k) = t0.025(67) = 1.667916 )


1.Khong tin cy ca

1:

Vi 1^ = 1.454701
Se ( 1^) = 0.578361
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.490043 1 2.419359
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.490043 n 2.419359 ln.
2.Khong tin cy ca

2:

Vi 2^ = -0.17046
Se ( 2^) = 0.227842
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.55049 2 0.209557
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.55049 n 0.209557 ln.
3.Khong tin cy ca

3:

Vi 3^ = -0.05205
Se ( 3^) = 0.085314

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-0.19434 3 0.09025
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mt
mc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19434 n
0.09025 ln.
4.Khong tin cy ca

4:

Vi 4^ = -0.06739
Se ( 4^) = 0.073681
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.19029 4 0.0555
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19029 n 0.0555 ln.
5.Khong tin cy ca

5:

Vi 5^ = -0.00136
Se ( 5^) = 0.074486
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.1256 5 0.122873
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t

-0.1256 n

0.122873 ln.
6.Khong tin cy ca

6:

Vi 6^ = -0.13623
Se ( 6^) = 0.069696
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.25248 6 -0.01998

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi chng loi sch tng gim
mt loi th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.25248 n
-0.01998 ln.
7.Khong tin cy ca 7:
Vi 7^ = 0.150395
Se ( 7^) = 0.075387
Th khong tin cy ca 7 l:
0.024656 7 0.276134
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi gian mn sch thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.024656 n 0.276134 ln.
8.Khong tin cy ca 8:
Vi 8^ = 0.356642
Se ( 8^) = 0.114336
Th khong tin cy ca 8 l:
0.165939 8 0.547345
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi quen hc bi thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.165939 n 0.547345 ln.
9.Khong tin cy ca 9:
Vi 9^ = 0.113038
Se ( 9^) = 0.196408
Th khong tin cy ca 9 l:
-0.21455 9 0.44063
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin thch hp th
s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.21455 n 0.44063 ln.
10.Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (

10

^ = 0.017496

10

^) = 0.048061

10

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

10

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

Th khong tin cy ca
-0.06267

10

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

10

l:

0.097658

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin tng gim mt


tng th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.06267 n 0.097658
ln.
11.Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (

11

^ = 0.031858

11

^) = 0.069275

11

Th khong tin cy ca
-0.08369

11

11

l:

0.147403

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi ca nhn vin th


vin tng gim mt mc thn thin th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong
khong t -0.08369 n 0.147403 ln.
12.Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (

12

^ = -0.18558

12

^) = 0.145588

12

Th khong tin cy ca
-0.42841

12

12

l:

0.05725

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi sinh vin c kin ng gp


th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.42841 n 0.05725 ln.
III KIM NH:
1. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc:

Prob( 2) = 0.4569 > = 0.05 Gii tnh khng nh hng n s


ln n th vin

Prob( 3) = 0.5439 > = 0.05 Khng gian khng nh hng n s


ln n th vin

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

11

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

Prob( 4) = 0.3636 > = 0.05 Thit b khng nh hng n s ln


n th vin

Prob( 5) = 0.9855 > = 0.05 S lng u sch khng nh hng


n s ln n th vin

Prob( 6) = 0.0547 > = 0.05 Chng loi sch khng nh hng


n s ln n th vin

Prob( 7) = 0.0501 > = 0.05 Thi gian mn sch khng nh


hng n s ln n th vin

Prob( 8) = 0.0027 < = 0.05 Thi quen hc bi nh hng n s


ln n th vin

Prob( 9) = 0.5668 > = 0.05 V tr khng nh hng n s ln


n th vin

Prob(

) = 0.7170 > = 0.05 Tng khng nh hng n s ln

10

n th vin

Prob(

) = 0.6471 > = 0.05 Thi nhn vin khng nh hng

11

n s ln n th vin

Prob(

) = 0.2068 > = 0.05 kin ng gp ca sinh vin

12

khng nh hng n s ln n th vin


2. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu:
Prob(F-statistic) = 0.015965 < = 0.05
M hnh ph hp.
3.

Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn:


a. Pht hin a cng tuyn
Xem xt qua ma trn tng quan ca cc bin (Bng 3 phn Ph Lc), ta thy
2 bin VT v TA c mc tng quan kh cao : 0.613513 nn c kh nng xy ra
hin tng a cng tuyn.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

12

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

kim nh a cng tuyn, chng ti xy dng m hnh hi quy ph trong


ln lt cc bin c lp s tr thnh bin ph thuc v hi quy vi cc bin cn
li.

Bng hi quy ph theo bin TA (Xem bng 2 phn Ph lc):

M hnh hi quy chnh:


Yi =

+ 9 VT +

10

GT +

TA +

11

KG +

TD +

12

TB +

SL + 6 CL +

TG +

TQ

YK + Ui

M hnh hi quy ph:


TA = 1 + 2 GT + 3 KG + 4 TB +
TQ + 9 VT +

11

TD +

12

SL + 6 CL + 7 TG +

YK + Vi

Hi qui m hnh hi quy ph theo TA ( Xem bng 6 phn ph lc)


R12 = 0.450069

V Prob(F-statistic)= 0.000004< =0.05 M hnh hi quy ph ph hp


Vy m hnh ban u c tn ti hin tng a cng tuyn.
b. Khc phc hin tng a cng tuyn:
Loi b bin VT hoc TA ra khi m hnh ban u
Hi quy li m hnh trong loi b bin VT (Xem bng7 phn Ph lc)
M hnh hi quy loi VT:
Yi = 1.444590 - 0.155477* GT -0.052298* KG -0.068016* TB
-0.002187* SL -0.138361* CL + 0.152849* TG + 0.351770* TQ + 0.034068*
TA + 0.033126* TD -0.187343* YK + ei
=> R2loi VT = 0.272053
Hi quy li m hnh trong loi b bin TA: (Xem bng 9 phn Ph lc)
M hnh hi quy loi TA :

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

13

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

Yi =1.450326-0.174874* GT -0.050441* KG -0.063471* TB +


0.004376* SL -0.132878* CL + 0.147648* TG 0.359554* TQ + 0.029972* TD
-0.177808* YK + ei
=>R2loi TA = 0.274170
So snh R2 2 m hnh hi quy li ta thy R2loi VT < R2loi TA
Vy loi b bin TA ra khi m hnh th m hnh s tt hn.
4. Kim nh hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i:
Pht hin hin tng phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i:

Kim nh m hnh sau khi khc phc a cng tuyn:

Ta c: F (k 1, n k ) = F0.05 (10 ,69 ) = 1.970929 < 0.05 =


Ngha l khng tn ti phng sai ca sai s ngu nhin thay i.
5. Kim nh hin tng t tng quan:
a. Pht hin hin tng t tng quan:
Ta c: k = k -1 = 11-1 = 10
d = 2.120834 (Bng 10 Ph lc)
du = 1.925
dl = 1.369
Kim nh gi thit Ho: Khng c t tng quan m
4 du = 2.075 < d = 2.120834 < 4 dl = 2.631
Bc b Ho, tc l tn ti hin tng t tng quan m.
b. Khc phc t tng quan:
Xt m hnh hi quy:
Yi =

GTi +

TQi + 9 VTi +

11

KGi +

TDi +

12

TBi +

SLi + 6 CLi +

TGi +

YKi + Ui (1)

v i Ui= Ui-1 + i (*), trong i l yu t ngu nhin tho mi gi


thit ca phng php phng sai sai s ngu nhin OLS.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

14

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

T (1) thay i bi i-1, ta c:


Yi -1 =

GT i-1 +

KG i-1 +

7 TG i-1+ 8 TQ i-1+ 9 VT i-1 +

11

TB i-1+

TD i-1 +

12

SL i-1+ 6 CL i-1+

YK i-1 + Ui -1 (2)

Nhn 2 v ca (2) cho ta c:

Yi -1 = 1 + 2 GT i-1 + 3 KG i-1 + 4 TB i-1+


i-1+ 6 CL i-1+
i-1 +

12

TG i-1+

TQ i-1+

VT i-1 +

SL

11

TD

YK i-1 + Ui -1 (3)

Ly (1) tr (3) ta c:
Yi - Yi -1 = 1 (1 - ) + 2 (GTi - GT i-1 ) + 3 ( KGi - KG i-1 ) +

4 ( Tbi - TB i-1) +

(Sli - SL i-1)+

(Cli - CL i-1) +

TG i-1) + 8 (Tqi - TQ i-1) + 9 (Vti - VT i-1 )+


)+

12

11

(Tgi -

(TDi - TD i-1

(Yki - YK i-1 ) + i (4)

T m hnh (4) trn, ta vit li:


Yi = 1 (1 - ) +
TBi -
-

11

TB i-1 +

TG i-1 +

TD i-1 +

8
12

2
5

GTi -
SLi -

TQi -
YKi -

8
12

GT i-1 +

KGi -

KG i-1 +

SL i-1 + 6 CLi - 6 CL i-1 + 7 TGi

TQ i-1 +

VTi -

VT i-1 +

11

TDi -

YK i-1 + Yi-1 + i

T Bng 10 - Phn Ph Lc: = -0.099907


t : Yi* = Yi - Yi -1
GTi* = GTi - GT i-1
KGi* = KGi - KG i-1
TBi* = TBi - TB i-1
SLi* = SLi - SL i-1
CLi* = CLi - CL i-1
TGi* = TGi - TG i-1
TQi* = TQi - TQ i-1
VTi* = VTi - VT i-1

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

15

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

TD i* = TDi - TD i-1
YKi* = YKi - YK i-1
*

= 1 (1 - ) = 1 (1-(-0.099907))

*
10

10

*
11

11

*
12

12

Khi (4) c vit li:


Yi* =
TGi* +

*
1
8

GTi* +

TQi* +

*
3

KGi* +

VTi* +

10

*
4

TBi* +

TAi* +

*
11

*
5

SLi* +

TD i* +

*
12

CLi* +

*
7

YKi* + i (5)

V (5) khng c t tng quan v i tho mi gi thit ca phng php OLS

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

16

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

c. M hnh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan:


(Bng 11 - Phn Ph Lc)
Yi* = 1.891341 - 0.147473 GTi* - 1.18E 06 KGi* - 0.064553 TBi* +
0.005791 SLi* - 0.133919 CLi* + 0.154227 TGi* + 0.413146 TQi* + 0.176533
VTi* + 0.007691 TDi* - 0.192187 YKi*
6. Kim nh sau khi khc phc hin tng t tng quan:
Ta c: k = k -1 = 11-1 = 10
d = 1.995184 (Bng 11 Ph lc)
du = 1.925
dl = 1.369
Kim nh gi thit Ho: Khng c t tng quan m
d = 1.995184 < 4 dl = 2.631 < 4
Chp nhn Ho, tc l khng tn ti hin tng t tng quan m.
Kim nh gi thit Ho: Khng c t tng quan dng
0 < dl = 1.369 < d = 1.995184
Chp nhn Ho, tc l khng tn ti hin tng t tng quan dng.
Vy m hnh sau khi khc phc khng c hin tng t tng quan.
IV. KIM NH BIN KHNG CN THIT:
Redundant Variables: -0.099907*GT(-1)
F-statistic
0.584844 Probability
Log likelihood ratio
0.676546 Probability

0.447066
0.410779

V F = 0.584844 c xc sut p = 0.447066 > = 0.05 nn GT l bin khng cn


thit trong m hnh hi quy.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

17

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

V. KIM NH BIN B B ST:


Omitted Variables: YK+0.099907*YK(-1)
F-statistic
1.947328 Probability 0.167416
Log likelihood ratio 2.230549 Probability 0.135306
V F = 1.947328 c xc sut p = 0.167416 > = 0.05 nn YK l bin khng nh
hng n s ln sinh vin n th vin, v vy khng nn a vo m hnh hi
quy.
VI. M HNH HON CHNH:
Yi* = 1.891341 - 0.147473 GTi* - 1.18E 06 KGi* - 0.064553 TBi* +
0.005791 SLi* - 0.133919 CLi* + 0.154227 TGi* + 0.413146 TQi* + 0.176533
VTi* + 0.007691 TDi* - 0.192187 YKi*
1.. ngha ca cc h s hi quy:

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca sinh vin t gi

tr nh nht l 1.891341 ln.

^:

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s ln n th vin ca n ln hn nam

0.147473 ln.

^
3 :

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, khng gian tng, gim 1 mc th s ln

n th vin gim, tng 1.18E 06 ln (khc vi k vng)

^:

Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thit b tng, gim 1 loi th s ln n th

vin gim, tng 0.064553 ln (khc vi k vng).

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, s lng u sch tng, gim 1 mc

th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.005791 ln (khc vi k vng).

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, chng loi sch tng, gim 1 loi th s

ln n th vin gim, tng 0.133919 ln. (khc vi k vng)

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi gian cho mn sch thay i th s

ln n th vin chnh lch 0.154227 ln.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

18

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, thi quen thay i th s ln n th vin

chnh lch 0.413146 ln.

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu v tr thch hp th s ln n th vin

ln hn 0.176533 ln so vi v tr khng thch hp.

^
11

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu thi ca nhn vin tng, gim 1

mc thn thin th s ln n th vin tng, gim 0.007691 ln.

^
12

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu sinh vin c kin ng gp th s

ln n th vin t hn 0.192187 ln so vi sinh vin khi khng a ra kin.


2. Khong tin cy:

- t 2 (n-k)*se(

+ t 2 (n-k)*se(

( vi t 2 (n-k) = t0.025(67) = 1.667916 )


a. Khong tin cy ca

1:

Vi 1^ = 1.891341
Se ( 1^) = 0.669067
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.775847 1 3.006835
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.775847 n 3.006835ln.
b. Khong tin cy ca

2:

Vi 2^ = -0.14747
Se ( 2^) = 0.218056
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.511024 2 0.216078
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.511024 n 0.216078 ln.
c. Khong tin cy ca

3:

Vi 3^ = -1.18E-06
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

19

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

Se ( 3^) = 7.30E-07
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-2.4E-06 3 3.71E-08
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mt
mc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -2.4E-06 n
3.71E-08 ln.
d. Khong tin cy ca

4:

Vi 4^ = -0.06455
Se ( 4^) = 0.069665
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.180701 4 0.051595
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.180701 n 0.051595 ln.
e. Khong tin cy ca

5:

Vi 5^ = 0.005791
Se ( 5^) = 0.070945
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.112491 5 0.124073
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.112491 n
0.124073 ln.
f. Khong tin cy ca

6:

Vi 6^ = -0.13392
Se ( 6^) = 0.061158
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.235884 6 -0.03195

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

20

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi chng loi sch tng gim
mt loi th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.235884 n
-0.03195 ln.
g. Khong tin cy ca 7:
Vi 7^ = 0.154227
Se ( 7^) = 0.069958
Th khong tin cy ca 7 l:
0.03759 7 0.270864
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi gian mn sch thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.03759 n 0.270864 ln.
h. Khong tin cy ca 8:
Vi 8^ = 0.413146
Se ( 8^) = 0.104229
Th khong tin cy ca 8 l:
0.239371 8 0.586921
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi quen hc bi thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.239371 n 0.586921 ln.
i. Khong tin cy ca 9:
Vi 9^ = 0.176533
Se ( 9^) = 0.149189
Th khong tin cy ca 9 l:
-0.072201 9 0.425267
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin thch hp th
s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.072201 n 0.425267 ln.
k. Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (

11

^ = 0.007691

11

^) = 0.066704

11

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

21

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

Th khong tin cy ca
-0.10352

11

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

11

l:

0.118902

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi ca nhn vin th


vin tng gim mt mc thn thin th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong
khong t -0.10352 n 0.118902 ln.
l. Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (

12

^ = -0.19219

12

^) = 0.137723

12

Th khong tin cy ca
-0.421804

12

12

l:

0.03743

ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi sinh vin c kin ng gp


th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.421804 n 0.03743 ln.
3. KIM NH:
a. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc:

Prob( 2) = 0.5011 > = 0.05 Gii tnh khng nh hng n s


ln n th vin

Prob( 3) = 0.1104 > = 0.05 Khng gian khng nh hng n s


ln n th vin

Prob( 4) = 0.3574 > = 0.05 Thit b khng nh hng n s ln


n th vin

Prob( 5) = 0.9352 > = 0.05 S lng u sch khng nh hng


n s ln n th vin

Prob( 6) = 0.0320 < = 0.05 Chng loi sch nh hng n s


ln n th vin

Prob( 7) = 0.0309 < = 0.05 Thi gian mn sch nh hng n


s ln n th vin

Prob( 8) = 0.0002 < = 0.05 Thi quen hc bi nh hng n s


ln n th vin

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

22

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

Prob( 9) = 0.2408 > = 0.05 V tr khng nh hng n s ln


n th vin

Prob(

) = 0.9085 > = 0.05 Thi nhn vin khng nh hng

11

n s ln n th vin

Prob(

) = 0.1674 > = 0.05 kin ng gp ca sinh vin

12

khng nh hng n s ln n th vin


b. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu:
Prob(F-statistic) = 0.002373 < = 0.05
M hnh ph hp.
VII. THNG K M T (BNG PH LC 4)
BIN Y:
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

S ln
1.275000
1.000000
4.000000
0.000000

Gi tr
1-2
>7
0

BIN KHNG GIAN


Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Mc
4.512500
5.000000
5.000000
1.000000

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Gi tr
rng ri
Rt rng ri
Rt cht chi

23

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

BIN THIT B
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Loi
3.500000
4.000000
4.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
3 4 loi
4 loi
1 loi

BIN S LNG SCH


Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Mc
2.537500
3.000000
5.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
va phi
nhiu
t

BIN CHNG LOI


Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Loi
3.550000
4.000000
4.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
3 - 4 loi
4 loi
1 loi

BIN THI GIAN


Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Mc
1.875000
2.000000
4.000000
1.000000

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

Gi tr
1 thng
1 nm
<= 1 tun

24

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

BIN THI QUEN


Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

a im
1.162500
1.000000
4.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
Nh hoc th vin

Tng
2.725000
2.000000
6.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
2 hoc 3

Ch khc
Nh

BIN TNG
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

6
1

BIN THI
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht

Mc
4.250000
5.000000
5.000000
1.000000

Gi tr
Kh thn thin
Thn thin
Khng thn thin

VIII. HN CH
-

V ngun lc ca nhm c hn nn s lng sinh vin c phng vn cn


thp, do tnh i din cho sinh vin ton trng cn thp.

V kin thc cn hn ch nn vn c mt vi yu t khc nh hng n s


ln n th vin ca sinh vin m nhm cha a vo kim nh dn n
kt qu cn thiu chnh xc.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

25

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

IX. KIN XUT


-

Th vin cn phi m rng khng gian

Cn phi trang b y wifi, my vi tnh, iu ho, my chiu

Cn phi tng thm s lng u sch .

Cn phi cp nht thm nhiu loi sch nh: sch chuyn ngnh, sch i
cng , lun vn, tiu lun, bo, tp ch.

Tng thi gian cho sinh vin mn sch ln 1 thng.

Th vin nn t tng 2.

Thi ca nhn vin th vin cn thn thin hn

Ngoi ra, cn tng tc ng truyn internet, thit k khng gian xanh


cho th vin, cn trang b thm a, phn mm phc v cho vic hc tp.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

26

Bi tp nhm Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.S Nguyn Quang Cng

LI CM N
Nhm Olalani xin gi li cm n chn thnh nht ti thy Nguyn Quang
Cng, ngi tn tnh hng dn chng em la chn ti ph hp, trang b
cho chng em nn tng kin thc cn thit hon thin bi tiu lun mt cch tt
nht.
Bn cnh , gip cho chng em c nhiu kinh nghim hn trong vic iu
tra s liu, ng dng cc phn mm: Eview, Excel x l s liu trong mn
hc Kinh T Lng ni ring v trong cc mn hc sau ny ni chung. Bi bo
co chc chn cn nhiu hn ch v thiu st, nhng nhm Olalani hy vng s
xut nhng kin ng gp chn thnh ca cc bn v th vin trng Duy Tn.
Mong rng th vin trng Duy Tn s i mi trong thi gian gn nht
tht s phc v tt hn cho tt c cc sinh vin.

SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9

27

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