Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LI M U
MC LC
A. LI M U
B. NI DUNG
I. THIT LP M HNH
1. Bin ph thuc
2. Bin c lp
3 . M hnh tng th
4. D on k vng gia cc bin
5. M hnh hi quy mu
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy
II. KHONG TIN CY
1. Khong tin cy ca
2. Khong tin cy ca
3. Khong tin cy ca
4. Khong tin cy ca
5. Khong tin cy ca
6. Khong tin cy ca
7. Khong tin cy ca
8. Khong tin cy ca
9. Khong tin cy ca
10
11
12
III. KIM NH
1. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
2. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
3. Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn
b. Khong tin cy ca
c. Khong tin cy ca
d. Khong tin cy ca
e. Khong tin cy ca
f. Khong tin cy ca
g. Khong tin cy ca
h. Khong tin cy ca
i. Khong tin cy ca
k. Khong tin cy ca
l. Khong tin cy ca
9
11
12
3. Kim nh
a. Kim nh s nh hng ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc
b. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu
VII . THNG K M T (BNG PH LC 4)
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9
BIN Y
BIN KHNG GIAN
BIN THIT B
BIN S LNG SCH
BIN CHNG LOI
BIN THI GIAN
BIN THI QUEN
BIN TNG
BIN THI
VIII. HN CH
IX . XUT
C. LI CM N
I- THIT LP M HNH :
1. Bin ph thuc:
Y : s ln sinh vin n th vin
(n v tnh: ln)
2. Bin c lp:
o
TB: Thit b
SL: S lng
VT: V tr
TA: tng
TD: Thi
YK: kin
3. M hnh tng th:
Yi =
+ 9 VT +
GT +
10
TA +
KG +
11
TD +
TB +
12
SL + 6 CL +
TG +
TQ
YK + Ui
cng tng.
10
11
Yi = 1.454701 - 0.170464 GT - 0.052047 KG - 0.067394 TB - 0.001363 SL 0.136230 CL + 0.150395 TG + 0.356642 TQ + 0.113038 VT + 0.017496 TA +
0.031858 TD -0.185579 YK + ei
6. ngha ca cc h s hi quy:
^:
0.170464 ln.
^
3 :
^:
^
10
^
11
^
12
- t 2 (n-k)*se(
+ t 2 (n-k)*se(
1:
Vi 1^ = 1.454701
Se ( 1^) = 0.578361
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.490043 1 2.419359
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.490043 n 2.419359 ln.
2.Khong tin cy ca
2:
Vi 2^ = -0.17046
Se ( 2^) = 0.227842
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.55049 2 0.209557
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.55049 n 0.209557 ln.
3.Khong tin cy ca
3:
Vi 3^ = -0.05205
Se ( 3^) = 0.085314
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-0.19434 3 0.09025
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mt
mc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19434 n
0.09025 ln.
4.Khong tin cy ca
4:
Vi 4^ = -0.06739
Se ( 4^) = 0.073681
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.19029 4 0.0555
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.19029 n 0.0555 ln.
5.Khong tin cy ca
5:
Vi 5^ = -0.00136
Se ( 5^) = 0.074486
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.1256 5 0.122873
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t
-0.1256 n
0.122873 ln.
6.Khong tin cy ca
6:
Vi 6^ = -0.13623
Se ( 6^) = 0.069696
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.25248 6 -0.01998
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi chng loi sch tng gim
mt loi th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.25248 n
-0.01998 ln.
7.Khong tin cy ca 7:
Vi 7^ = 0.150395
Se ( 7^) = 0.075387
Th khong tin cy ca 7 l:
0.024656 7 0.276134
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi gian mn sch thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.024656 n 0.276134 ln.
8.Khong tin cy ca 8:
Vi 8^ = 0.356642
Se ( 8^) = 0.114336
Th khong tin cy ca 8 l:
0.165939 8 0.547345
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi quen hc bi thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.165939 n 0.547345 ln.
9.Khong tin cy ca 9:
Vi 9^ = 0.113038
Se ( 9^) = 0.196408
Th khong tin cy ca 9 l:
-0.21455 9 0.44063
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin thch hp th
s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.21455 n 0.44063 ln.
10.Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (
10
^ = 0.017496
10
^) = 0.048061
10
10
Th khong tin cy ca
-0.06267
10
10
l:
0.097658
11
^ = 0.031858
11
^) = 0.069275
11
Th khong tin cy ca
-0.08369
11
11
l:
0.147403
12
^ = -0.18558
12
^) = 0.145588
12
Th khong tin cy ca
-0.42841
12
12
l:
0.05725
11
Prob(
10
n th vin
Prob(
11
n s ln n th vin
Prob(
12
12
+ 9 VT +
10
GT +
TA +
11
KG +
TD +
12
TB +
SL + 6 CL +
TG +
TQ
YK + Ui
11
TD +
12
SL + 6 CL + 7 TG +
YK + Vi
13
GTi +
TQi + 9 VTi +
11
KGi +
TDi +
12
TBi +
SLi + 6 CLi +
TGi +
YKi + Ui (1)
14
GT i-1 +
KG i-1 +
11
TB i-1+
TD i-1 +
12
SL i-1+ 6 CL i-1+
YK i-1 + Ui -1 (2)
12
TG i-1+
TQ i-1+
VT i-1 +
SL
11
TD
YK i-1 + Ui -1 (3)
Ly (1) tr (3) ta c:
Yi - Yi -1 = 1 (1 - ) + 2 (GTi - GT i-1 ) + 3 ( KGi - KG i-1 ) +
4 ( Tbi - TB i-1) +
(Sli - SL i-1)+
(Cli - CL i-1) +
12
11
(Tgi -
(TDi - TD i-1
11
TB i-1 +
TG i-1 +
TD i-1 +
8
12
2
5
GTi -
SLi -
TQi -
YKi -
8
12
GT i-1 +
KGi -
KG i-1 +
TQ i-1 +
VTi -
VT i-1 +
11
TDi -
YK i-1 + Yi-1 + i
15
TD i* = TDi - TD i-1
YKi* = YKi - YK i-1
*
= 1 (1 - ) = 1 (1-(-0.099907))
*
10
10
*
11
11
*
12
12
*
1
8
GTi* +
TQi* +
*
3
KGi* +
VTi* +
10
*
4
TBi* +
TAi* +
*
11
*
5
SLi* +
TD i* +
*
12
CLi* +
*
7
YKi* + i (5)
16
0.447066
0.410779
17
^:
0.147473 ln.
^
3 :
^:
18
^
11
^
12
- t 2 (n-k)*se(
+ t 2 (n-k)*se(
1:
Vi 1^ = 1.891341
Se ( 1^) = 0.669067
Th khong tin cy ca 1 l:
0.775847 1 3.006835
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th s ln n th vin ca sinh
vin trong khong t 0.775847 n 3.006835ln.
b. Khong tin cy ca
2:
Vi 2^ = -0.14747
Se ( 2^) = 0.218056
Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:
-0.511024 2 0.216078
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi gii tnh l nam th s ln
n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.511024 n 0.216078 ln.
c. Khong tin cy ca
3:
Vi 3^ = -1.18E-06
SVTH: Nhm Olalani K13QNH9
19
Se ( 3^) = 7.30E-07
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l:
-2.4E-06 3 3.71E-08
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi khng gian tng gim mt
mc rng ri th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -2.4E-06 n
3.71E-08 ln.
d. Khong tin cy ca
4:
Vi 4^ = -0.06455
Se ( 4^) = 0.069665
Th khong tin cy ca 4 l:
-0.180701 4 0.051595
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thit b tng gim mt loi
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.180701 n 0.051595 ln.
e. Khong tin cy ca
5:
Vi 5^ = 0.005791
Se ( 5^) = 0.070945
Th khong tin cy ca 5 l:
-0.112491 5 0.124073
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi s lng u sch tng gim
mt mc th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.112491 n
0.124073 ln.
f. Khong tin cy ca
6:
Vi 6^ = -0.13392
Se ( 6^) = 0.061158
Th khong tin cy ca 6 l:
-0.235884 6 -0.03195
20
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi chng loi sch tng gim
mt loi th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.235884 n
-0.03195 ln.
g. Khong tin cy ca 7:
Vi 7^ = 0.154227
Se ( 7^) = 0.069958
Th khong tin cy ca 7 l:
0.03759 7 0.270864
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi gian mn sch thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.03759 n 0.270864 ln.
h. Khong tin cy ca 8:
Vi 8^ = 0.413146
Se ( 8^) = 0.104229
Th khong tin cy ca 8 l:
0.239371 8 0.586921
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi thi quen hc bi thay i
th s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t 0.239371 n 0.586921 ln.
i. Khong tin cy ca 9:
Vi 9^ = 0.176533
Se ( 9^) = 0.149189
Th khong tin cy ca 9 l:
-0.072201 9 0.425267
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi v tr th vin thch hp th
s ln n th vin nhn gi tr trong khong t -0.072201 n 0.425267 ln.
k. Khong tin cy ca
Vi
Se (
11
^ = 0.007691
11
^) = 0.066704
11
21
Th khong tin cy ca
-0.10352
11
11
l:
0.118902
12
^ = -0.19219
12
^) = 0.137723
12
Th khong tin cy ca
-0.421804
12
12
l:
0.03743
22
Prob(
11
n s ln n th vin
Prob(
12
S ln
1.275000
1.000000
4.000000
0.000000
Gi tr
1-2
>7
0
Mc
4.512500
5.000000
5.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
rng ri
Rt rng ri
Rt cht chi
23
BIN THIT B
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht
Loi
3.500000
4.000000
4.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
3 4 loi
4 loi
1 loi
Mc
2.537500
3.000000
5.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
va phi
nhiu
t
Loi
3.550000
4.000000
4.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
3 - 4 loi
4 loi
1 loi
Mc
1.875000
2.000000
4.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
1 thng
1 nm
<= 1 tun
24
a im
1.162500
1.000000
4.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
Nh hoc th vin
Tng
2.725000
2.000000
6.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
2 hoc 3
Ch khc
Nh
BIN TNG
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht
6
1
BIN THI
Tiu ch
Trung bnh
Trung v
Ln nht
Nh nht
Mc
4.250000
5.000000
5.000000
1.000000
Gi tr
Kh thn thin
Thn thin
Khng thn thin
VIII. HN CH
-
25
Cn phi cp nht thm nhiu loi sch nh: sch chuyn ngnh, sch i
cng , lun vn, tiu lun, bo, tp ch.
Th vin nn t tng 2.
26
LI CM N
Nhm Olalani xin gi li cm n chn thnh nht ti thy Nguyn Quang
Cng, ngi tn tnh hng dn chng em la chn ti ph hp, trang b
cho chng em nn tng kin thc cn thit hon thin bi tiu lun mt cch tt
nht.
Bn cnh , gip cho chng em c nhiu kinh nghim hn trong vic iu
tra s liu, ng dng cc phn mm: Eview, Excel x l s liu trong mn
hc Kinh T Lng ni ring v trong cc mn hc sau ny ni chung. Bi bo
co chc chn cn nhiu hn ch v thiu st, nhng nhm Olalani hy vng s
xut nhng kin ng gp chn thnh ca cc bn v th vin trng Duy Tn.
Mong rng th vin trng Duy Tn s i mi trong thi gian gn nht
tht s phc v tt hn cho tt c cc sinh vin.
27