MC LC

I. Nhng vn c bn v TTH..................................................................2 I.1. S lt..................................................................................................2 I.2. Khi nim.............................................................................................2 I.3. Cc thnh vin tham gia TTH............................................................3 I.4. Phn loi TTH...................................................................................3 I.5. Mt s c im ca TTH.................................................................4 II. T gi hi oi...........................................................................................4 II.1. Khi nim............................................................................................4 II.2. Phng php c t gi.......................................................................4 II.3. Yt gi.................................................................................................4 II.4. Cc loi t gi.....................................................................................5 II.5. Phng php tnh t gi cho..............................................................6 II.5.1. Nguyn tc c bn tnh t gi cho...........................................6 II.5.2. Vn dng phng php tnh cho.............................................7 II.6. Cc nhn t nh hng n t gi ......................................................8 III. Cc cng c phi sinh...............................................................................10 III.1. Khi nim..........................................................................................10 III.2. Cc cng c phi sinh........................................................................10 III.2.1. Quyn la chn........................................................................10 III.2.2. Quyn mua trc.....................................................................11 III.2.3. Chng quyn............................................................................11 III.2.4. Hp ng k hn......................................................................11 III.2.5. Hp ng tng lai..................................................................12 IV. S thay i t gi nh hng n nn kinh t..........................................12

I. Nhng vn c bn v th trng ngoi hi: I.1. S lt: Forex = Foreign Exchange Vit l FOREX , hay FX hay spot FX S ra i v pht trin ca th trng ngoi hi gn lin vi nhu cu giao dch v trao i ngoi t gia cc quc gia nhm phc v cho cc hot ng kinh t v x hi,c bit l phc v cho s pht trin ca ngoi thng. Chng hn khi xut khu (XK) sang Vit Nam, mc tiu ca cc cng ty M l thu v USD, trong khi cc cng ty nhp khu (NK) Vit Nam c ng (VND). Do i hi mt c ch no gip cc cng ty VN i VND ly USD thanh ton cho cc cng ty XK M. Ngc li khi cc cng ty VN xut khu sang M thng thu v USD, cng ty phi i USD thnh VND s dng. T i hi phi c mt c ch no gip cho cc cng ty chuyn t ng tin mnh ang c sang ng tin khc mnh cn. C ch chnh l th trng ngoi hi. FOREX ra i lc u nhm mc ch p ng nhu cu ca cc ngn hng v cc cng ty khng l trong ngnh ch khng phi cho nhng chng t hon. I.2. khi nim: Th trng ngoi hi ( FOREX ) l ni thc hin vic mua v bn, trao i ngoi hi, trong ch yu l trao i, mua bn ngoi t v cc phng tin thanh ton quc t, m gi c ngoi t c hnh thnh trn c s cung cu. Hoc c th ni th trng hi oi l ni chuyn mn ha v trao i mua bn ngoi t, thng qua s c st gia cung v cu ngoi t tha mn nhu cu ca cc ch th kinh t ng thi xc nh cc iu kin giao dch tc l gi c v s lng ngoi t mua bn. Mt s hnh thi c th ca ngoi hi (tr vng, bc, qu) thng c giao dch trn th trng hi oi: ngoi t mt, cc phng tin thanh ton, s d tin gi ngoi t. c gi chung l hng ha ca th trng hi oi. Trung tm ca th trng hi oi l th trng lin ngn hng, thng qua m mi giao dch mua bn ngoi hi c th tin hnh trc tip vi nhau. Qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin ca th trng hi oi trn th gii hnh thnh hai t chc khc nhau. H thng hi oi Anh - M v h thng hi oi chu u. Theo h thng Anh - M th th trng hi oi c tnh cht biu tng, ch giao dch ngoi hi thng xuyn gia mt s ngn hng v ngi mi gii, quan h ny c th l trc tip, nhng ch yu l thng qua in thoi, telex. Ngc li theo h thng lc a chu u th th trng hi oi c a im nht nh, hng ngy nhng ngi mua bn ngoi hi ti giao dch v k hp ng. Cc ngn hng thng mi ln c chi nhnh nc ngoi c vai tr quan tr ng trong th trng hi oi. Cc ngn hng ny kinh doanh ngoi hi l ch yu, cc ngn hng khc ng vai tr ph thuc vo hot ng kinh doanh di s ch o ca cc ngn hng ln. Trn th trng hi oi, cc t gi nim yt c nghi quan trng. tuy nhin n ch l t gi c bn dng tham kho m thi, cn t gi hi oi ca mi hp ng, mi giao dch mua bn ngoi hi c quyt nh bi quan h cung cu ngoi hi trn th trng. 2

I.3. cc thnh vin tham gia th trng ngoi hi: Cc ngn hng thng mi (Commercial Banks): y l nhn vt chnh ca th trng. Cc ngn hng ny mua bn ngoi t khng ch thc hin cc lnh ca khch hng m cn kinh doanh cho chnh bn thn cc ngn hng. Cc ngn hng ln cn hnh thnh b phn kinh doanh ngoi t quc t. B phn ny c vai tr quan trng trong vic iu phi vn, kinh doanh tin gi, mua bn ngoi t. N c trang b nhiu phng tin thng tin hin i nh telex, fax, in thoi, my tnh. B phn ny thng bao gm cc tiu b phn sau y: - Tiu b phn chuyn kinh doanh mua bn ngoi t - Tiu b phn gm cc nh phn tch d on t gi, tnh ton t gi - Tiu b phn qun tr, kim sot. Cc nh mi gii (Brokers): H l trung tm gia ngn hng v qua h phn tch cc hot ng ca th trng bng cch lm cho cung v c u tip cn nhau. H cung cp cho khch hn g nhng thng tin tc thi v th trng, kh nng tm thy bn hng khi cn gi, h bo m cho s vn hnh tt ca c ch th trng v qua lin lc mn hnh gia ngi mua v ngi bn cho ti khi tha thun c giao dch. Vi nhng thun li, cng lao ca h dnh cho khch hng nn nh mi gii c t cng cho tng giao dch mua bn. V d: Tin ph cho mi gii Singapore l 25 SGD/ 1 triu USD mua bn. Ngn hng trung ng (Central Banks): H tham gia th trng vi 2 danh ngha. Mt mt nh mi ngn hng khc h tham gia th trng hi oi l nhm phc v khch hng ca mnh; mt khc h tham gia vi t cch l c quan gim st th trng nhm iu khin hot ng ca th trng trong khun kh cc quy nh ca lut php. ng thi qua Ngn hng trung ng theo d i bin ng c ng bn t c th can thip vo th trng khi cn thit nhm duy tr n nh ng bn t. Cc cng ty kinh doanh (Corporate customers): Cc cng ty ny tham gia mua bn ngoi t thanh ton cc khon n thng mi. Dch v, u t nc ngoi. Thng thng l cng ty xut nhp khu, dch v quc t ... k c khch du lch quc t. I.4. Phn loi th trng hi oi: Phn loi theo phm vi hot ng: Th trng lin ngn hng (th trng bn bun): Th trng khch hng (th trng bn l): Phn loi theo nghiep v kinh doanh: Th trng giao ngay ( Spot Market ): L th trng m vic mua bn, thanh ton v giao nhn ngoi hi xy ra ng thi ty theo tp qun. Chng hn th trng hi oi giao ngay chu u, vic giao nhn ng oi hi xy ra sau 2 ngy lm vic k t ngy k hp ng mua ngoi hi. y cn lu nhng ngy ngh i vi cc nc ngh hai ngy cui tun th by, ch nht v nhng ngy ngh hng tun ca cc quc gia tn gio nh C Ot v Rp ngh th su v ch nht. Th trng hi oi c k hn ( Forward Market ): L th trng m vic k kt hp ng mua bn ngoi hi v vic giao nhn ngoi hi khng din ra ng thi m vic giao nhn ngoi hi s din ra sau mt s ngy nht nh no do hai bn tha thun. Ngy giao nhn ngoi hi trong hp ng mua bn c k hn c tnh bng ngy giao nhn ngay cng vi s ngy k hn ca hp ng. V d: hp ng k hn 3 thng, k vo ngy 12 thng 3 nm 2011 th ngy giao nhn ngay l ngy 14 thng 3 nm 2011, nn ngy giao k hn 3 thng s l ngy 15 thng 6 nm 2011. Th trng ngoi hi phi sinh. 3

Phn loi theo tnh cht: Th trng giao ngay: Th trng tin gi ngoi t:

I.5. Mt s c im ca th trng hi oi: Th nht, th trng hi oi mang tnh quc t v n hot ng khng ch trong phm vi mt nc, m trn phm vi ton th gii. Mi s bin ng ca t gi hi oi trn mt th trng ny u c nh hng n t gi trn nhng th trng khc. Th hai, th trng hi oi mang tnh lin tc, cc giao dch din ra 24/24 trong cc ngy lm vic trong tun. Th ba, th trng hi oi ch giao dch mt s ngoi t nht nh, trong ng USD c coi l ng tin chun. Trn th trng hi oi hin nay tp trung giao dch 15 ng tin ch yu, c cng b qua Forex.com. Th t, sn phm giao dch trn th trng ngoi hi gia tng rt mnh, c bit l s tng trng rt cao ca cc nghip v phi sinh nh forward, option ... Th nm, phng thc giao dch trn th trng hi oi ch yu l khng qua quy OTC (over the counter) m c thc hin qua qua in thoi, telex, fax, vi tnh ni mng ... II. T gi hi oi: II.1. Khi nim T gi hi oi (exchange rate) gia hai ng tin chnh l gi c ca ng tin ny tnh bng mt s n v ng tin kia. Da vo t gi NHNN cng b, cc NHTM quyt nh t gi ca mnh. II.2. Phng php c t gi (ngn ng trong giao dch): Trn th trng hi oi, hay ti cc ngn hng thng mi, khi cn mua bn ngoi t ngi ta c th trao i qua in thoi. V vy, tit kim thi gian ngi ta thng dng nhng ngn ng c th, rt gn nhng g 2 bn bit, hiu. V nhng l do nhanh chng, chnh xc v tit kim, cc t gi khng bao gi c c y trn th trng, m ngi ta thng c nhng con s c ngha. Cc con s ng sau du phy c c theo 2 nhm s. Hai s thp phn u tin c gi l s (figure), 2 s k tip c gi l im (point). Vd1: t gi gia USD/CHF l 6,8560 th cc nh ngoi hi s c l su - tm mi lm - su mi. Vd2: 1 cng ty gi n ngn hng hi t gi USD/VND th c ngn hng tr li la-vit nam hai mi mt nm mi lm su mi. iu ny ta phi hiu Ngn hng sn sng mua 1USD = 21,5560VND v bn 1USD = 21,5560VND. II.3. Phng thc biu th t gi (Yt gi): Cc nc c nn kinh t th trng theo ui h thng t gi linh hot, trong t gi c quyt nh bi s tc ng gia cung v cu ngoi t. -Cu ngoi t trn th trng ngoi hi chnh l tng doanh s ngoi t cn mua trn th trng ngoi hi -Cung ngoi t trn th trng ngoi hi chnh l tng doanh s ngoi t cn bn trn th trng ngoi hi. t gi cao, s c mt s d tha USD khin cho gi USD gim v t gi s gim v mt mc no .Ngc li, t gi thp hn, s c mt s thiu ht USD khin cho gi USD tng v t gi s tng n mt mc no .Gi l s cn bng t gi.

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Ta cn nm 2 khi nim ng tin yt gi v ng tin nh gi: - ng tin yt gi l ng tin biu th gi tr ca n qua 1 ng tin khc. - ng nh gi l ng tin dng xc nh gi tr ng tin khc. 1 ng yt gi = X ng nh gi Vd: USD/JPY : 103.91 => 1 USD = 103.91 JPY USD/VND: 21500 => 1USD = 21500 VND Sau khi nm c khi nim v ng tin nh gi v ng tin yt gi ri ta cn nm 2 khi nim na v yt gi trc tip v yt gi gin tip: - yt gi trc tip l phng php biu th gi tr mt n v ngoi t thng qua mt s lng ni t nht nh. V d VN, t gi cc ngoi t c yt gi trc tip nh sau: 1USD = 21500VND - Yt gi gin tip l phng php biu th gi tr 1 n v ni t thng qua mt s lng ngoi t nht nh. V d Anh, t gi cc ngoi t c yt gi gin tip nh sau: 1GBP = 1.5521USD Theo thng l cc ng tin thng c yt gi gin tip gm c bng Anh, dollar c v dollar New Zealand, cc ng tin thng c yt gi trc tip gm c Yn Nht, France Thy S, dollar Singapre, v nhiu ng khc trong c ng VN. Ring dollar M v Euro va yt gi trc tip, va yt gi gin tip.

O G TIE A N N

O G TIE Y E GIA N N T

II.4. Cc loi t gi: 1. Cn c vo i tng xc nh t gi, c th chia lm t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng. T gi chnh thc l t gi do Ngn hng trung ng ca nc xc nh. Trn c s ca t gi ny cc ngn hng thng mi v cc t chc tn dng s n nh t gi mua bn ngoi t giao ngay, c k hn, hon i. T gi th trng l t gi c hnh thnh trn c s quan h cung cu trn th trng hi oi. 2. Cn c vo k hn thanh ton, c th chia lm t gi giao ngay v t gi c k hn. T gi giao ngay (SPOT) l t gi do t chc tn dng yt gi ti thi im giao dch hoc do hai bn tha thun nhng phi m bo trong biu do ngn hng nh nc quy nh. Vic thanh ton gia cc bn phi c thc hin trong vng hai ngy lm vic tip theo, sau ngy cam kt mua hoc bn. T gi giao dch k hn (FORWARDS) l t gi giao dch do t chc tn dng t tnh ton v tha thun vi nhau nhng phi m bo trong bin qui nh v t gi k hn hin hnh ca Ngn hng Nh nc ti thi im k hp ng. 5

N VCO NH ( Thg la n v) n 1

3. Cn c vo gi tr ca t gi, c th chia lm t gi danh ngha v t gi thc. T gi hi oi danh ngha l t gi ca mt loi tin t c biu hin theo gi hin ti, khng tnh n bt k nh hng no ca lm pht. T gi hi oi thc l t gi c tnh n tc ng ca lm pht v sc mua trong mt cp tin t phn nh gi c hng ha tng quan c th bn ra nc ngoi v hng tiu th trong nc. T gi ny i din cho kh nng cnh tranh quc t ca nc . 4. Cn c vo phng thc chuyn ngoi hi, c th chia lm t gi in hi v t gi th hi. T gi in hi l t gi thng c nim yt ti ngn hng. l t gi chuyn ngoi hi bng in. T gi in hi l t gi c s xc nh cc loi t gi khc. T gi th hi, tc l t gi chuyn ngoi hi bng th. T gi in hi thng cao hn t gi th hi. 5. Cn c vo thi im mua/bn ngoi hi, c th phn bit t gi mua v t gi bn ca ngn hng. T gi mua l t gi ca ngn hng mua ngoi hi vo. T gi bn l t gi ca ngn hng bn ngoi hi ra. T gi mua bao gi cng thp hn t gi bn v khon chnh lch l li nhun kinh doanh ngoi hi ca ngn hng. Thng thng th ngn hng khng cng b tt c t gi ca cc hp ng k kt trong mt ngy m ch cng b t gi ca hp ng k kt cui cng trong ngy , ngi ta gi l t gi ng ca. T gi ng ca c coi l ch tiu ch yu v tnh hnh bin ng ca t gi trong ngy hm . T gi c cng b vo u gi ca u ngy giao dch c gi l t gi m ca. II.5. Phng php tnh t gi cho: Hin nay trn cc th trng hi oi quc t, thng thng ngi ta ch thy t gi gia USD v GBP so vi ng ni t. Chng hn Vit Nam th ngi ta thng bo t gi gia USD so vi VND, cc nc cng ng chung chu u th USD/EUR... Trong giao dch ngoi hi, khch hng cn mun xc nh t gi gia cc ng tin khc, chng hn h mun xc nh t gi USD/GBP, do vy h phi dng mt phng php no tnh ton cc t gi ny. chnh phng php tnh cho t gi. II.5.1. Nguyn tc c bn tnh t gi cho: Mt cch tng qut, ta c cng thc: A/B = A/C x C/B

Mun xc nh t gi hi oi ca ng tin A so vi ng tin B theo phng php tnh cho, ta ly t gi gia ng tin A so vi C nhn vi t gi ca ng tin C so vi B

V d: Ti Paris, Ngn hng Quc gia Paris cng b t gi: USD/EUR = 0.8100 GBP/EUR = 1.4634 Xc nh t gi: USD/GBP Ta c th vit nh sau: USD/GBP = USD/EUR x EUR/GBP = (USD/EUR) x {1/ (USD/EUR )} = (0.8100) x 1/1.4634 = 0.5535

II.5.2 Vn dng phng php tnh t gi cho: V d 1: Mt cng ty Php xut khu mt l hng thu c 100,000 CHF, cn bn cho Ngn hng ly ng EUR. Nh vy Ngn hng s thanh ton cho cng ty bao nhiu EUR ? 6

Cho bit t gi cng b l: USD/CHF = 1.6115/25 USD/EUR = 0.8100/0.8110 p dng cng thc tnh cho ta c: CHF/EUR = (CHF/USD) x (USD/EUR ) = 1/(USD/EUR) x (USD/CHF) Vn y l ta dng t gi mua hay bn. Ta suy lun nh sau: Trc ht cng ty s bn 100,000CHF cho ngn hng mua USD, nh vy ngn hng s bn USD cho cng ty, tc l ngn hng s p dng t gi bn USD/CHF = 1.6125, sau cng ty s bn USD mua EUR, lc ny ngn hng s p dng t gi mua USD/EUR = 0.8100. Th vo cng thc ta thu c t gi bn ca cng ty nh sau: CHF/EUR = (1/1.6125)*0.8100 = 0.5023 Vy tng s tin EUR m ngn hng s thanh ton cho cng ty l: 100,000.0.5023 = 50,230EUR V d 2: Mt cng ty cn mua 100,000CHF tr bng EUR th ngn hng s tnh t gi bn l bao nhiu? p dng cng thc tnh cho ta c: EUR/CHF = (EUR /USD) x (USD/CHF) = 1/(USD/EUR) x (USD/CHF) Ta suy lun tng t nh v d 1. Trc ht cng ty bn EUR mua USD, ngn hng s p dng t gi bn USD/EUR = 0.8110, sau khi cng ty bn USD mua CHF th ngn hng s p dng t gi mua USD/CHF = 1.6115. Thay th vo cng thc trn ta c: EUR/CHF = (1/0.8110) x1.6115 = 1.9870 S tin m cng ty phi tr cho Ngn hng mua 100,000CHF l: 100 000 / 1.9870 = 50,327.13 EUR Nhn xt: - Khi ngn hng bn th ngn hng s dng t gi cao - Khi ngn hng mua th ngn hng s dng t gi thp Do bt li vn thuc v khch hng cn mua hay cn bn. V d 3: Mt cng ty cn bn cho ngn hng 100,000GBP ly EUR . Nh vy ngn hng s tr cho cng ty bao nhiu EUR ? Cho bit t gi: GBP/USD = 1.5810/20 USD/EUR = 0.8270/80 p dng cng thc tnh cho, ta c: (GBP/EUR ) = (GBP/USD) x (USD/EUR ) Ta suy lun nh sau: Trc ht cng ty s bn GBP cho ngn h ng mua USD, do vy ngn h ng s p dng t gi mua GBP/USD = 1.5810; sau cng ty s bn s USD n y cho ngn hng ly EUR, do ngn hng s p dng t gi mua USD/EUR = 0.8270. Thay vo cng thc ta c: GBP/USD = 1.5810 x 0.8270 = 1.3075 S tin m ngn hng tr cho cng ty l: 100,000GBP x 1.3075 = 130,750 EUR Nhn xt: - Khi khch bn th phi chu hai t gi mua cng mt lc. V d 4: Mt cng ty cn mua 100,000 GBP tr bng EUR . Vy cng ty phi tr cho Ngn hng bao nhiu EUR ? Cho bit t gi: GBP/USD = 1.5810/20 USD/EUR = 0.8270/80 p dng cng thc tnh cho, ta c: 7

GBP/EUR = (GBP/USD) x (USD/EUR ) Ta suy lun nh sau: Trc ht cng ty s bn EUR mua USD, do ngn hng s p dng t gi bn USD/EUR = 0.9280; sau cng ty s bn USD ly GBP, do ngn hng s p dng t gi bn GBP/USD = 1.5820. Thay vo cng thc trn ta tnh c t gi: GBP/EUR = 1.5820 x 0.8280 = 1.3099 Vy cng ty phi tr cho ngn hng s tin: 100,000GBP x 1.3099 = 130,990 EUR Nhn xt: - Khi khch hng mua th phi chu hai t gi bn cng mt lc v ngc li. II.6. Cc nhn t nh hng n t gi: 1. Lin quan gia t gi hi oi vi t l lm pht hay sc mua Ni cch khc y mun ni n mi lin h gia t gi hi oi v sc mua ca mi ng tin trong mi cp tin t. thy r mi lin quan ny ta s dng l thuyt sc mua ca Ricardo- Cassel. L thuyt ny gi thuyt rng t gi hi oi mc cn bng phi th hin s ngang bng trong sc mua gia hai ng ting tng ng v n c gi l l thuyt 3P (Purchashing Power Parity). L thuyt ny gi thuyt trong mt nn kinh t cnh tranh lnh mnh, tc l trong cc ph vn chuyn, thu hi quan gi nh bng 0. Do nu cc hng ha ng nht th ngi tiu dng s mua hng nc no c gi th t s thp. Theo gi thit , mt kin hng A M c gi l 100USD v Php l 80EUR , c ngha l theo ngang gi sc mua i ni ca hai ng tin ny l: USD /EUR = 0.8000. Nu M mc lm pht l 5%/nm v Php l 10%/nm th gi kin hng A M s t ng ln l 105USD, Php tng ln l 88EUR . Do ngang gi sc mua i ni s l 105USD = 88EUR , hay USD/EUR = (88/105) = 0.8381 Nh vy: -T gi trc lm pht l USD/EUR = 0.8000 - T gi sau lm pht l USD/EUR = 0.8381 Mc chnh lch t gi l 4,76% trong khi mc chnh lch lm pht l 5%, hai mc ny c th coi l tng t nh nhau. Qua cho thy t gi bin ng do lm pht ph thuc mc chnh lch ca lm pht ca hai ng tin yt gi v nh gi. T v d trn, ta c th i n cng thc sau: Gi s ng tin ca 2 nc l A v B, trong ng tin A l yt gi v B l ng tin nh gi: T gi cui k A/B = t gi u k A/B x {(1+lm pht B)/(1+lm pht A)} Nc no c mc lm pht ln hn th ng tin nc c sc mua thp hn, nc no c mc lm pht cao hn mc lm pht trung bnh ca th gii hoc ca khu vc th ng tin nc mt gi lin tc. Ngoi hi c gi c v n cng l mt loi hng ha v l mt loi hng ha c bit. Gi c ca ngoi hi cng chu nh h ng ca nhiu nhn t nh gi c ca cc loi hng ha thng thng nh mc lm pht, v gim pht, cung v cu hng ha trn th trng, s lng on v gi c v.v. Nu khng tnh n cc nhn t khc m ch tnh ring nh hng ca nhn t lm pht, ta c th d on c s bin ng ca t gi trong tng lai. V d: T gi USD/VND bnh qun nm 2004 l 15,500. Mc lm pht ca M l 5% v ca Vit Nam l 8% nm. D on t gi USD/VND nm 2005 s l: USD/VND = 15,500 x (1.08/1.05) = 15,943 2. T gi hi oi v cn cn thanh ton quc t Cn cn thanh ton qu c t c tc ng rt quan trng n t gi hi oi. Tnh trng ca cn cn thanh ton quc t s tc ng trc tip n cung v cu ngoi hi, do n tc ng trc tip v rt nhy bn n t gi hi oi. V nguyn tc, nu cn cn thanh ton quc t d tha c th dn n kh nng cung ngoi hi ln hn cu ngoi hi, t lm cho t gi hi oi c xu hng gim. Ngc li nu cn cn thanh ton quc t 8

thiu ht c th dn n cu ngoi hi ln hn cung ngoi hi, t t gi hi oi c xu hng tng. Trong cn cn thanh ton quc t, cn cn thng mi c tc ng cc k quan trng n s bin ng ca t gi hi oi m cc nh kinh t u cng nhn. y l nhn t c bn ng sau lng t gi hi oi. Tuy nhin tu vo iu kin ca mi n c v trong tng giai on pht trin, cc cn cn khc cng c vai tr rt li hi, v d nh cn cn giao dch vn. C th iu kin ca Vit Nam trong nhng nm gn y, u t trc tip nc ngoi tng nhanh to nn dng chy ngoi t vo trong nc rt ln th hin trong ti khon vn trong cn cn thanh ton quc t, t tc ng ln cung ngoi hi v t gi hi oi. 3. T gi hi oi v mc chnh lch li sut gia cc nc: Ni chung, nu cc iu kin v mi trng kinh doanh ca cc nc l tng ng nhau, nc no c li sut ngn hn cao hn th vn ngn hn s chy vo nhm thu phn chnh lch do tin li to ra, do d s lm cho cung ngoi hi tng ln, cu ngoi hi gim i, t gi hi oi s gim xung. Chng hn, khi Vit Nam nng cao li sut tin gi hn cc nc trong khu vc th lng ngoi t s chy vo Vit Nam mua cc tn phiu ngn hn, do s lm cho cung ngoi t v ng thi cng lm gim nhu cu ngoi t xung. T gi hi oi do cng gim xung. Tuy nhin iu ny c thc s xy ra hay khng cn ph thuc vo iu kin v mi trng kinh doanh ca Vit Nam c m bo an to n cho cc nh u t hay khng, bi v cc nh u t khng ch quan tm n li nhun thu c t u t m cn rt quan tm n yu t an ton vn u t. 4. Yu t tm l Yu t tm l l mt yu t ch yu da vo s phn on t cc s kin, tnh hnh chnh tr, kinh t ca cc nc v th gii c lin quan. Chng hn, mc thu nhp thc t (mc tng GNP thc t) tng ln s lm tng nhu cu v hng ha v dch v nhp khu, do lm cho nhu cu ngoi hi thanh ton hng nhp khu cng tng ln. Tng trng hay suy thoi kinh t cng c nh hng ti t gi hi oi. Khi nn kinh t trong thi k tng trng nhanh, nhu cu v ngoi t tng v lc gi ngoi t c xu hng tng. Ngc li, trong thi k kinh t suy thoi, khng hong, nhu cu v ngoi t gim lm cho gi ngoi t c xu hng gim. T gi hi oi l gi quc t, do nhng s kin kinh t, chnh tr tr n th gii cng s gy nh hng rt nhy bn n t gi hi oi. Chng hn nh s kin M xy ra v o thng 9/2001 hay chin tranh Iraq thng 3/2003 va qua lm khuynh o th trng hi oi th gii, gi USD gim ng k. 5. Vai tr qun l ca ngn hng trung ng Trong ch t gi hi oi th ni c qun l, vai tr can thip ca Nh nc gi v tr quan trng. Cn nhn mnh rng Nh nc can thip bng cng c ca th trng thng qua Ngn hng Nh nc Trung ng ch khng phi bng cc cng c hnh chnh, tc l Ngn hng Trung ng tham gia vo th trng vi t cch l ngi tham gia trn th trng (ngi mua hoc ngi bn) trong tng thi im tc ng ln cung hoc cu ngoi hi, t tc ng ln t gi hi oi ph hp vi chnh sch tin t ca Nh nc. 6. Nhng yu t chnh tr v iu kin kinh t Cc iu kin kinh t thay i hoc cc s kin kinh t, ti chnh s nh hng n cc hot ng kinh doanh v u t ca quc gia, t nh hng n cc lung tin chy ra v chy vo quc gia v kt qu l nh hng n t gi hi oi. V d nh cuc khng ti chnh nm 1997 Chu lm ng tin ca mt s nc Chu mt gi kh nhiu. Cc chnh sch thu, mc tng trng kinh t, chnh sch u t ca cc quc gia u c th nh hng n s dch chuyn cc lung vn u t gia cc nc, t tc ng ln t gi hi oi.

III. Cc cng c phi sinh: III.1. Khi nim: Cng c phi sinh l nhng cng c c pht hnh trn c s nhng cng c c nh c phiu, tri phiu nhm nhiu mc tiu khc nhau nh phn tn ri ro, bo v li nhun hoc to li nhun. III.2. Cc cng c phi sinh: III.2.1. Quyn la chn (Option) 9

a. Khi nim: Quyn la chn l mt cng c cho php ngi nm gi n c mua (nu l quyn chn mua) hoc bn (nu l quyn chn bn) mt khi lng nht nh hng ho vi mt mc gi xc nh, v trong mt thi gian nht nh. Cc hng ho c s ny c th l c phiu, ch s c phiu, tri phiu, ch s tri phiu, thng phm, ng tin hay hp ng tng lai. b. Nhng yu t cu thnh mt quyn la chn - Tn ca hng ho c s v khi lng c mua theo quyn. - Loi quyn (chn mua hay chn bn). - Thi hn ca quyn - Mc gi thc hin theo quyn. c. Nhng mc gi lin quan ti mt quyn la chn l: - Gi th trng hin hnh ca loi hng ho c s. - Gi hng ho c s thc hin theo quyn. - Gi quyn la chn. i vi quyn chn mua, nu gi thc hin thp hn gi hin hnh ca chng khon c s, th quyn c gi l ang c tin (in the money), tc l ngi c quyn c th c li t vic thc hin quyn. Nu gi thc hin bng vi gi th trng, quyn ang trng thi ho vn ( at the money), v nu cao hn, gi l ang mt tin (out of money). i vi quyn chn bn th ngc li, ngi thc hin quyn s c li nu gi bn thc hin quyn cao hn gi th trng ca hng ho c s v s b mt tin nu gi thc hin quyn thp hn gi th trng ca hng ho c s. Gi tr m ngi nm gi quyn la chn s nhn c bng cch thc hin quyn c gi l gi tr ni ti (intrinsic value). Nu quyn trng thi b mt tin, gi tr ni ti bng 0. Gi th trng ca mt quyn thng t nht l bng gi tr ni ti. Gi bn quyn c gi l phn ph tri, chnh lch gia gi bn quyn vi gi tr ni ti (trong trng hp quyn ang c tin) c gi l phn ph tri gi tr theo thi gian. Ni cch khc, khi : Gi tr theo thi gian ca quyn chn mua = Gi quyn - (gi th trng - gi thc hin). V d 1: Gi ca mt quyn chn mua XYZ l 400.000 ng, gi th trng ca XYZ l 42.000 ng. Ngi gi quyn c th chim ly 200.000 ngay tc th bng cch thc hin quyn, tc l mua 100 c phn ( mc gi c quyn n nh) vi tng chi ph 4.000.000 ng, cng theo mc gi thc hin theo quyn l 40.000 mt c phn; sau bn ngay vi gi th trng, thu v 4.200.000 . Gi tr ni ti ca quyn l 200.000 . Mc ph tri gi tr theo thi gian = gi quyn gi tr ni ti = 400.000 - 200.000 = 200.000 Ngi mua vn sn sng tr phn ph tri cho cc quyn la chn v h nhn c nhiu li ch t mt quyn la chn. d. ng dng ca quyn la chn: Quyn la chn cho php nh u t thu c t l % li tc trn vn u t cao nht. V d 2: Gi s th trng hin nay ca c phiu XYZ l 42.000 VND/c phn, v bn d on sau na nm na, gi c phiu XYZ s tng mnh, ln ti 50.000 VND. Gi s cc quyn la chn c lin quan n giao dch c phiu XYZ c nim yt, bn c th mua mt quyn chn mua c phiu XYZ vi gi 40.000 VND/c phn. Trong vng 6 thng gi c phiu XYZ tng ln 50.000 VND/c phn. Bn c th buc ngi bn giao 100 c phn XYZ cho bn vi gi 40.000 VND/c phn, sau bn chng ra th trng vi gi 50.000 ng. Nhu vy bn to ra mt li nhun ng k. Trn thc t bn thu c li nhun 60.000 ng trn khon u t 40.000 ng, vy li sut l 150%, trong khong thi gian l 6 thng. Quyn la chn c s dng bo v li nhun. V d 3: Vi XYZ ang c gi th trng l 44.000 ng, ngi s hu 100 c phn XYZ bn mt quyn chn mua XYZ 44.000 vi gi quyn l 400.000 ng. Nu gi th trng ca XYZ gim xung 40.000 ng, ngi bn s c bo v trc khon thua l nh c 40.000 ng nhn c t vic bn quyn chn. Nu XYZ tip tc gim gi th ng nhin ngi bn s mt tin. Nh vy khon thu 40.000 ng t vic bn quyn la chn to ra mt s bo v c b i vi tnh trng st gi. Nu trong 6 thng ti gi XYZ vn gi 10

nguyn, quyn s khng c thc hin. Khon thu ph tri 40.000 ng l mt thu nhp b sung trn tng u t. III.2.2. Quyn mua trc (right) Quyn mua trc l mt quyn la chn mua c thi hn rt ngn, c khi ch vi tun. Quyn ny c pht hnh khi cc cng ty tng vn bng cch pht hnh thm cc c phiu thng. Quyn cho php mt c ng mua c phiu mi pht hnh vi mc gi n nh trong mt khong thi gian xc nh. Loi quyn ny thng c pht hnh theo tng t, mi c phiu ang lu hnh c km theo mt quyn. S quyn cn mua mt c phiu mi c quy nh tu theo tng t pht hnh mi. Gi c phiu ghi trn quyn thng l thp hn gi hin hnh ca c phiu. Gi ca quyn tnh bng chnh lch gia gi th trng hin hnh ca c phn ang lu hnh v gi mua c phn mi theo quyn, chia cho s lng quyn cn c mua mt c phn mi. V d: c phiu bn theo quyn (gi thc hin) l 800.000 ng/c phn, nhng c gi th trng l 1.000.000 ng, nu c 10 quyn c mua mt c phn mi th gi ca quyn c xc nh theo cng thc Vr = P0 - Pn/r. Trong : Vr l gi tr ca mt quyn, P0 l gi th trng ca c phiu ang lu hnh, Pn l gi thc hin c phiu mi v r l s quyn cn c mua mt c phiu mi. Vy, gi quyn y l Vr = (1.000.000 800.000)/10 = 20.000 ng. Nu khng mun thc hin quyn, c ng thng c th bn quyn trn th trng trong thi gian quyn cha ht hn. Gi quyn c th ln xung trong khong thi gian cho bn, tu thuc bin ng gi th trng ca c phiu. III.2.3. Chng quyn (warrants) Chng quyn l quyn cho php mua mt s c phn xc nh ca mt c phiu, vi mt gi xc nh, trong mt thi hn nht nh. Quyn ny c pht hnh khi tin hnh t chc li cc cng ty, hoc khi cng ty mun khuyn khch cc nh u t tim nng mua nhng tri phiu hay c phiu u i nhng c nhng iu kin km thun li. chp nhn nhng iu kin , nh u t c c mt la chn i vi s ln gi c th xy ra ca c phiu thng. c im: Khc vi quyn mua trc, chng quyn c thi hn di hn, do cng ty pht hnh cng c c s pht hnh ng thi vi cng c c s. Khc vi quyn la chn (option), khi chng quyn c thc hin, n to thnh dng tin vo cho cng ty v tng thm lng c phiu lu hnh trn th trng. Chng quyn c th c giao dch tch ri vi tri phiu hay c phiu m n i km. Cc iu kin ca chng quyn c ghi r trn t chng ch: s c phiu c mua theo mi chng quyn (thngl 1:1); gi thc hin cho mi c phiu; ti thi im chng quyn c pht hnh, gi ny bao gi cng cao hn gi th trng ca c phiu c s, v gi c th c nh, c th c tng ln nh k; v thi hn ca quyn, a s trng hp l 5 n 10 nm. III.2.4. Hp ng k hn Hp dng k hn l mt tho thun trong mt ngi mua v mt ngi bn chp thun thc hin mt giao dch hng ho vi khi lng xc nh, ti mt thi im xc nh trong tng lai vi mt mc gi c n nh vo ngy hm nay. Hng ho y c th l bt k th hng ho no; t nng sn, cc ng tin, cho ti cc chng khon. Theo hp ng ny th ch c hai bn tham gia vo vic k kt, gi c do hai bn t tho thun vi nhau, da theo nhng c tnh mang tnh cc nhn. Gi hng ho trn th trng giao ngay vo thi im giao nhn hng ho c th thay , tng ln hoc gim xung so vi mc gi k kt trong hp ng. Khi , mt trong hai bn mua v bn s b thit hi do cam kt mt mc gi thp hn (bn bn) hoc cao hn (bn mua) theo gi th trng. Nh vy bng vic tham gia vo mt hp ng k hn, c hai bn u gii hn c ri ro tim nng cng nh hn ch li nhun tim nng ca mnh. V ch c hai bn tham gia vo hp ng, cho nn mi bn u ph thuc duy nht vo bn kia trong vic thc hin hp ng. Khi c thay i gi c trn th trng giao ngay, ri ro thanh ton s tng ln khi mt trong hai bn khng thc hin hp ng. Ngoi ra, v mc gi t ra mang tnh c nhn v ch quan nn rt c th khng chnh xc. 11

III.2.5. Hp ng tng lai Hp ng tng lai, nh c tnh linh hot ca n, khc phc c nhng nhc im ca hp ng k hn, v thng c xem l mt cch thc tt hn ro chn ri ro trong kinh doanh. Nhng im khc bit cn bn ca hp ng tng lai so vi hp ng k hn l: 1. Nim yt trn s giao dch. Mt giao dch hp ng tng lai ni chung c x l trn mt S giao dch. im ny cho php gi c c hnh thnh hp l hn, do cc bn mua bn c cung cp thng tin y v cng khai. 2. Xo b ri ro tn dng. Trong cc giao dch hp ng tng lai c nim yt trn s giao dch, c hai bn bn v mua u khng bao gi bit v i tc giao dch ca mnh. Cng ty thanh ton b tr s phc v nh mt trung gian trong tt c cc giao dch. Ngi bn bn cho cng ty thanh ton b tr, v ngi mua cng mua qua cng ty thanh ton b tr. Nu mt trong hai bn khng thc hin c hp ng th vn khng nh hng g n bn kia. 3.Tiu chun ho. Cc hp ng k hn c th c tho ra vi mt hng ho bt k, khi lng, cht lng, thi gian giao hng bt k, theo tho thun chung gia hai bn bn, mua. Tuy nhin, cc hp ng tng lai nim yt trn s giao dch i hi vic giao nhn mt khi lng c th ca mt hng ho c th p ng cc tiu chun cht lng ti thiu, theo mt thi hn c n nh trc. 4. iu chnh vic nh gi theo mc gi th trng (Marking to market). Trong cc hp ng k hn, cc khon l, li ch c tr khi hp ng n hn. Vi mt hp ng tng lai, bt k mn li no cng c giao nhn hng ngy. C th l nu gi ca hng ho c s bin ng khc vi gi tho thun (gi thc hin hp ng) th bn b thit hi do s thay i gi ny phi tr tin cho bn c li t s thay i gi . Trn thc t, v khng bn no bit v i tc ca mnh trong giao dch, nn nhng ngi thua u tr tin cho cng ty thanh ton b tr, v cng ty ny s tr tin cho nhng ngi thng. IV. S thay i t gi hi oi nh hng n nn kinh t: S bin ng ca TGH nh hng trc tip n hot ng ngoi thng thng qua knh gi c. Da trn TGH, chng ta c th tnh c gi xut nhp khu ca mt loi hng ho ca mt nc theo tin t ca mt nc khc. V vy, t gi thay i ko theo s thay i ca gi c hng ho xut nhp khu. Chng ta hy cng xem xt 2 tnh hung sau: nh hng ca mt ng ni t mnh i vi nn kinh t S bin ng ny c li cho hot ng xut khu v gi xut khu ca hng ho v dch v ca nc s gim i tng i trn th trng nc ngoi, vi iu kin gi c hng ho v dch v gi mc n nh trn th trng ni a. Do , s gp phn lm tng kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ho, dch v ca nc . Khi TGH tng, gi c hng nhp khu s t ln tng i trn th trng ni a vi iu kin gi nhp khu n nh. Chnh v vy m mt s nc s dng chinh sch ph gi ng ni t hn ch nhp khu. ng ni t yu c th lm gim t l tht nghip, tuy nhin n c th gy ra t l lm pht cao hn. Khi gi c hng ha nc ngoi t hn, cc nh sn xut trong nc tng gi m khng s mt kh nng canh tranh vi hng ha nc ngoi. nh hng ca mt ng ni t mnh i vi nn kinh t. Mt ng ni t mnh s khuyn khch ngi trong nc dng hng ha nc ngoi nhiu hn. Trng hp ny lm tng cnh tranh ca hng ha nc ngoi v buc cc nh sn xut trong nc khng c tng gi bn hng. V vy lm pht ca mt nc s gim xung trong trng hp ni t tng gi, nu cc iu kin khc bng nhau. Ni t mnh c th khin cho t l lm pht gim xung nhng n c th lm cho t l tht nghip cao hn. nh hng ca gi tr ng ni t i vi chng khon. i vi tri phiu: Mt ng ni t yu rt c th tng d kin v lm pht. Li sut th trng tng ln ko theo lm gi tri phiu gim.Nh u t yu cu mt t sut sinh li cao hn b p ri ro lm pht. Kt qu c th h s bn rng cc tri phiu, v s to p lc lm gim gi tri phiu hn na. i vi c phiu: Cc nh u t nc ngoi c th c gng mua c phiu ca mt nc khi ng tin ca nc yu v bn ra khi ng tin ca nc mnh ln. D bo mt ng tin ca nc no tng gi s gip gia tng ngun vn vo nc v s to p lc gim li sut( nu cc iu kin khc bng nhau). Ngoi ra, TGH tng hay gim cn c nh hng khng nh ti dng vn ngoi t lu chuyn gia cc nc tc ti hot ng u t v tn dng quc t. Tuy nhin, mc nh hng cn ph thuc vo nhiu yu t khc nhau. 12

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