10/3/2011

NI DUNG
Tng quan v u t v d n u t Cc phng php nh gi hiu qu d n u t

Ging vin: Li Qunh Chi B mn Qun l Cng nghip- Khoa Kinh t v Qun l in thoi: 0912353577 Email: chilq.bk@gmail.com

Xc nh v s dng dng tin trong phn tch d n

Qun tr ri ro trong d n

Ti liu tham kho

Gio trnh Lp v qun l d n u t, Nguyn Ngc Mai, NXB Gio dc, 1996. Gio trnh Lp v qun l d n u t. Nguyn Bch Nguyt. Nh xut bn thng k 2000. Phn tch kinh t cc hot ng u t: Cng c phn tch v ng dng thc t, Pedro Belli, Jock R.Anderson, Howard N. Dixon, Jee-Peng Tan, NXB Vn ha Thng tin, 2002. Phn tch v la chn d n u t, Phm Ph, Trng i hc Bch Khoa Thnh ph H Ch Minh, 1991. Phng php son tho d n u t kh thi, Cng ty dch v v d n pht trin nng nghip, Trung tm nghin cu ng dng v dch v khoa hc k thut, 1993. Cc lut lin quan

I.Tng quan v u t v d n u t
1. u t Khi nim Phn loi

2. D n u t

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Khi nim c trng Vng i d n Phn loi Khi nim qun l d n

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1.1.u t
Khi nim u t l vic nh u t b vn bng cc loi ti sn hu hnh hoc v hnh hnh thnh ti sn tin hnh cc hot ng u t

1.1.u t
Phn loi (theo chc nng qun l vn) u t trc tip: Ch u t trc tip tham gia qun l vn. u t g tip: Ch u t khng trc tip tham u gin p: C u g c p gia qun l vn

1.2.D n u t
Khi nim D n l tng th nhng chnh sch, hot ng v chi ph c lin quan vi nhau nhm t c nhng mc tiu nht nh trong mt khong thi gian xc nh (Theo ngn hng th gii)

1.2.D n u t Cc c trng ca d n
c trng D n p ng cho mt nhu cu, l gii php ca mt vn c th. D n b rng buc bi thi gian, ngun lc. D mang tnh d nht: M tiu, nhim v, con ngi, D n h duy h Mc i hi i lch trnh khc nhau. D n lun tn ti trong mt mi trng khng chc chn: mi trng u t bin ng, thay i do khch hng, nh qun l, s pht trin ca cng ngh

D n u t l tp hp cc xut b vn trung v di hn tin hnh u t trn a bn c th, trong khang thi gian c th (Theo Lut u t 2005)

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1.2.D n u t
Cc bc hnh thnh v pht trin

1.2.D n u t
Phn loi
Phn loi theo quy m:
D n ln: c c trng bi tng kinh ph ln, s lng cc bn tham gia ng, thi gian d n di v nh hng mnh n mi trng kinh t v sinh thi D n nh: c c tnh ngc vi d n ln, khng i hi kinh ph nhiu, thi gian thc hin ngn, khng phc tp v nh hng khng mnh n mi trng kinh t v sinh thi

Xc nh u t
Phn tch v lp d n Thm nh v ph duyt Thc hin d n Nghim thu, kt thc d n
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1.2.D n u t
Phn loi theo mc ch u t: Mc D n u t mi ri D n u t thay th ro g gim D n u t m rng dn D n u t hin i ha Phn loi theo ngnh ngh : D n trong lnh vc cng nghip, nng nghip, giao thng vn ti, y t, gio dc, x hi

1.2.D n u t
Phn loi theo ngun vn u t: D n s dng vn ngn sch nh nc D n s dng vn tn dng do Nh nc bo lnh, dng t pht trin ca d h l h vn tn d u h i doanh nghip Nh nc D n s dng vn khc

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1.2.D n u t
Phn loi theo mi quan h gia cc d n: D n c lp: Vic quyt nh u t d n ny khng nh hng n quyt nh u t (thu nhp, chi ph) cc d n khc v ngc li D n ph thuc D n b sung D n thay th

1.2.D n u t
Phn loi theo c tnh dng tin: D n u t thng thng: Dng tin i du mt ln D n u t khng thng thng: Dng tin khng i du hoc i du nhiu ln

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Khi nim qun l d n

Thit k

Tin trnh qun l d n

Lp k hoch T chc thc hin Gim st thc hin Kt thc d n
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Qun tr d n l mt qu trnh hoch nh, t chc v qun l cc cng vic v ti nguyn nhm th mn cc mc ti h sn vi i h tha tiu nh i nhng hn ch v thi gian, ti nguyn v chi ph

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Tiu ch thnh cng ca d n Tiu ch thnh cng ca mt d n

Cu hi tho lun
Nhng nguyn nhn dn n tht bi ca d n?

Cht lng

Thi gian

Tiu ch thnh cng ca mt d n

Chi ph

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II. Cc phng php nh gi hiu qu ca d n

2.1. Gi tr theo thi gian ca ng tin

Mt ng hm nay c gi tr ln hn mt ng trong tng lai.
P: Gi tr ng tin hin ti F: Gi tr ng tin tng lai r : Li sut n : S k ghp li (F/P,r,n) (F/P,r,n) : H s tch ly (P/F,r,n) (P/F,r,n) : H s chit khu

1. 2. 3. 4. 4

Gi tr theo thi gian ca ng tin Cc yu cu khi so snh v la chn phng n Cc phng php nh gi v la chn phng n Mi lin quan gia cc tiu chun nh gi

F = P (1 + r)n

P (F/P,r,n) (F/P,r,n)

(P/F,r,n) P = F / (1 + r)n = F (P/F,r,n)

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1. Gi tr theo thi gian ca ng tin

Gi tr theo thi gian ca dng tin u ( tp hp cc khon tin bng nhau xut hin ln lt ti mi k)
A1= A2= A3=.. At=..= An=A

1. Gi tr theo thi gian ca ng tin

(1+r)n - 1 r(1+r)n r(1+r)n (1+r)n-1

P=A

A=P

= A (P/A, r, n)
0 1 2 3t.n (Nm) ( )

= P (A/P, r, n)

F =A

(1+r)n - 1 r

r A = F (1+r)n - 1
= (A/F, r, n)

= A (F/A, r, n)
F/A: H s quy i dng tin u v tng lai A/F: H s quy i gi tr tng lai v dng tin u

F/A: H s quy i dng tin u v hin ti A/F: H s quy i gi tr hin ti v dng tin u

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1. Gi tr theo thi gian ca ng tin

- Mt ngi mun c s tin tit kim 300 triu ng trong 10 nm, hi s tin ngi phi gi vo ngn hng l bao nhiu, bit li sut l 15%/nm ? -Mt nh u t mua mt ti sn tr gi 10,000 USD tr dn trong 10 qu l i sut l 10%/ Tnh s tin nh t ny li 10%/qu. h i h u phi tr hng qu? - Tnh gi tr hin ti ca dng tin c vng i 8 nm nh sau: nm th nht l 200, nm th 2 l 250, nm th 3 l 300, t nm th t n nm th 8 dng tin u hng nm l 400, bit li sut l 10%/nm ?

3. Cc phng php nh gi v la chn phng n

1. 2. 3. 4.

Gi tr hin ti thun NPV H s hon vn ni ti IRR T s li ch/chi ph B/C Thi gian hon vn Tp

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3.1. Gi tr hin ti thun NPV

NET PRESENT VALUE

3.1. Gi tr hin ti thun NPV

NPV =
NPV?
t =0

At (1 + i) t
A = (B
t =0 t t =0 n n

L gi tr quy i tt c thu nhp v chi ph ca d n v thi im hin ti (u k phn tch) vi t sut chit khu thch hp
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At :Dng tin mt nm t Bt :Dng thu nm t Ct :Dng chi nm t i: t sut chit khu

Ct )

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3.1. Gi tr hin ti thun NPV

La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun NPV Phng n c lp NPV >= 0 Chp nhn NPV < 0 Loi b Phng n loi tr NPV = Max v >=0 Ti u

3.1. Gi tr hin ti thun NPV Nhn xt

NPV ch r quy m s tin li thu thm c sau khi t c mc li sut i Tiu chun NPV c s dng rng ri trong phn tch v nh gi d n u t Tiu chun NPV ph thuc vo h s chit khu i

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Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c MARR

Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c MARR l mc li sut ti thiu (thp nht) ca d n hay ca vn ch s hu m nh u t chp nhn c. MARR l t l chit khu c s dng xc nh gi tri hin ti ca dng tin k vng

Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c MARR

Tnh NPV ca cc phng n sau. bit chi ph s dng vn i = 10%

DA A B C

0 -600 -1200 -1800

1 78 144 200

2 78 144 200

3 78 144 200

4 78 144 200

5 678 744 2000

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3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR

Internal rate of return

3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR

NPV =

IRR?

t=0

A t (1 + IRR ) t = 0

IRR l gi tr chit khu NPV = 0 IRR biu din t l thu hi ca mi d n IRR phn nh chi ph s dng vn ti a m nh u t c th chp nhn c.

L mc li m d n to ra trn vn u t trong thi gian hot ng

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3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR

Cch xc nh IRR

3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR

La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun IRR

IRR= i1 + (i2 i1)

NPV 1 NPV + NPV 1 2

D n c lp
IRR >= MARR chp nhn phng n IRR < MARR phng n s b bc b

i1: L h s chit khu ng vi NPV1 > 0 i2: L h s chit khu ng vi NPV2 < 0
NPV1 NPV2 i1 IRR i2

So snh cc phng n vn u t nh nhau IRR cao hn => phng n tt hn IRR cao nht => phng n tt nht
i

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3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR

La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun IRR So snh cc phng n vn u t khc nhau
Nguyn tc so snh
Phng n u t ln hn ch so snh vi phng n c u t b hn khi phng n c u t b hn l ng gi theo IRR (IRR MARR) Phng n c u t ln hn c chn khi IRR(I) MARR Phng n u t b hn c chn khi IRR(I) < MARR.

3.2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR Nhn xt

u im
Cho bit t l li trn vn u t, c bit hu dng khi d n vay vn u t Khng gp kh khn khi xc nh t sut chit khu g Thun li khi so snh cc d n c thi gian thc hin, vn u t khc nhau Nhc im Kh khn trong vic tnh ton Khng ph thuc vo chi ph vn => nhn nh sai v kh nng sinh li ca d n Gp kh khn trong cc trng hp u t khng thng thng (c nhiu nghim)
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Bi tp p dng Gii
Cho mt d n c dng tin nh bng di: - Tnh NPV vi cc mc li sut 10%,15%, - Tm IRR ca d n Nm 0 -3352 3352 1 1000 2 1000 3 1000 4 1000 5 1000

BiGii dng 2 tp p
Cho 2 d n c s liu v dng tin hng nm nh sau: Hy xc nh IRR ca tng d n v la chn phng n thc hin ty theo MARR? D n A B 0 -100 100 -300 1 15 36 2 15 36 3 15 36 4 15 36 5 115 336

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3.3. T s li ch v chi ph B/C Benefit/Cost

B/C?

3.3. T s li ch v chi ph B/C

B = C

t=0 n

B t (1 + i ) t C t (1 + i ) t

t=0

L t s gia tng gi tr hin ti ca thu nhp v tng gi tr hin ti ca chi ph d n

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3.3. T s li ch v chi ph B/C

La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun B/C Phng n c lp
B/C > = 1 Chp nhn B/C < 1 Loi b

3.3. T s li ch v chi ph B/C Nhn xt

u im
B/C cho bit thu nhp trn mi n v vn u t hoc n v chi ph. Nhc im Khng cho bit tng li ch rng nh ch tiu NPV NPV. Ph thuc vo vic la chn li sut chit khu

So snh cc phng n
Nguyn tc nh gi, th tc nh gi tng t nh ch tiu IRR

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3.4. Thi gian hon vn Tp

3.4. Thi gian hon vn Tp

Thi gian hon vn gin n : L khong thi gian d n thu hi c vn u t ban u
T pg

Tp?

t=0

At = 0

L thi gian cn thit thu hi vn u t ban u cho d n

Thi gian hon vn c chit khu: L khong thi gian d n hon c vn u t v bo m t l sinh li hng nm l i
T pck

(1 + i )
t =0
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At

=0
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3.4. Thi gian hon vn Tp

Cng thc
Tp

3.4. Thi gian hon vn Tp

Cng thc tnh gn ng

CF = ( B
t =0

C t )(1 + i ) t = 0

Tpck = t1 +

NPV 1 NPV + NPV2 1

(t2 t1 )

nh gi phng theo tiu chun Tp i n i

Tp Tp * Chp nhn Loi b Tp > Tp * Ti u Tp = Min Tp * l thi gian hon vn qui nh hoc mong mun

t1: L thi im ng vi NPV1 > 0 t2: L thi im ng vi NPV2 < 0

NPV2 NPV1
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t1

Thv

t2

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3.4. Thi gian hon vn Tp Nhn xt

TP cho nh u t bit d n ny s hon vn trong bao nhiu nm. Tiu chun TP khng xt dng tin sau khi hon vn vn, khng nh gi ng mc sinh li ca d n => l ch tiu nh gi hiu qu khng y TP o lng mc ri ro ca d n

Bi tp p dng Gii
Cho d n c dng tin nh sau, tng vn u t ban u l 5 triu USD - Tnh NPV vi li sut chit khu 15% - Tnh IRR, B/C v Tp
n v: trUSD

Nm Thu nhp Chi ph

1 2 1.5

2 2.5 1.7

3 3 1.9

4 3.5 2.1

5 4 2.3

6 4.5 2.5

7 5 2.7

8 5.5 2.9

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4. Mi lin quan gia cc tiu chun nh gi

3. Dng tin d n 1. 2. 3. 4. Khi nim dng tin d n Cc phng php tnh khu hao Cc phng php tr vn v li vay Xy dng dng tin ti chnh d n u t

Cc ch tiu NPV, IRR v B/C l tng ng

Mt phng n ng gi theo Tp th ng gi theo NPV, IRR v B/C nhng khng c iu ngc li

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3.1. Khi nim dng tin d n Biu th doanh thu v chi ph ti cc thi im khc nhau trong thi gian thc hin d n C hai cch biu din: Bng Biu

3.1. Khi nim dng tin d n Chi ph thc hin d n: Chi ph u t ban u Chi ph vn hnh Doanh thu t d n: Doanh thu t hot ng sn xut kinh doanh Doanh thu t hot ng ti chnh Doanh thu bt thng
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3.2. Cc phng php tnh khu hao

1. Phng php khu hao u (tuyn tnh, ng thng) 2. Phng php khu hao theo tng s th t cc nm (SYD) 3. Phng php khu hao theo kt s (gi tr cn li) 4. Phng php khu hao theo s d gim dn c iu chnh 5. Phng php khu hao theo sn lng
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3.2.1. Phng php khu hao u

Dx = (P-SV)/N = const Bx = P - Tx = P - (P-SV)*x / N Tx = Dx

K hiu:

P: Nguyn gi TSC SV: Gi tr cn li N: Thi hn khu hao Dx: chi ph khu hao nm x Bx: Gi tr TSC cn li cui nm (Bn= SV) Tx: Tng gi tr khu hao n nm t (khu hao lu k) (Tn= P-SV)

L hnh thc khu hao n gin nht nhng chm thu hi vn u t

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3.2.2. Phng php khu hao theo tng s th t cc nm (SYD)

D
x

3.2.3. Phng php khu hao theo kt s

(n

x + 1 )(P n +1 n 2

SV

Dx = BV x 1dr

dr = 1

SV P

khu hao nhiu nm u v gim dn trong nhng nm sau theo cp s cng

khu hao nhiu nm u v gim dn trong nhng nm sau theo cp s nhn

L hnh thc khu hao chng thu hi vn, trnh c hao mn

Dx: Chi ph khu hao ti nm x BVx-1: Gi tr cn li ca ti sn c nh cui nm x-1 dr: Sut khu hao
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3.2.4. Phng php khu hao theo s d gim dn c iu chnh

3.2.5. Phng php khu hao theo sn lng Trong mt s ngnh, mc hao mn TSC khng ch ph thuc thi gian khu hao m cn ph thuc cng s dng.

D x = BV x 1 dr
dSL: T l khu hao theo ng thng Kc: H s iu chnh

dr = d SL .K c

BVx-1: Gi tr cn li ca ti sn c nh cui nm x-1 dr: Sut khu hao Thi gian s dng (t) t 4 nm 4 nm< t 6 nm t > 6 nm H s iu chnh Kc 1,5 2 2,5
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du =
du:

P SV Q

Chi ph khu hao tnh cho mt n v sn lng : Tng sn lng theo cng sut thit k
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3.3.Cc phng php tr vn v li vay

1. 2. 3. 4. 4 Tr u vn vay Tr u c vn vay v li vay Tr vn vay vo cui k, tr li u hng nm Tr T c vn vay v li vay vo cui thi h vay i hi hn

3.3.1.Phng php tr u vn vay

Lng vn vay hng nm
V1 = V2 = = Vt = = Vn = P n
Trong : Vt :L Lng vn t cui k t tr i P : Lng vn vay ban u n : Thi gian vay

Li vay tr cui k t Lt = [ P (t 1)
r : Li sut vay
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P n

]r

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3.3.2.Phng php tr u vn v li vay Tng tr n hng nm:

V1 + L1= V2 + L2= = Vt + Lt= = Vn + Ln = P(A/P,r,n) ( ,, )

3.3.3.Phng php tr vn vay cui k, tr li u hng nm g Tr li hng nm:

Lt = P r

Tr gc cui k:
Vn = P

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3.3.4.Phng php tr vn vay v li vay vo cui thi hn vay y y Tng tr li v vn cui thi hn vay
Vn +Ln = P (F/P, r, n) 1. 2. 3. 4. 4

3.4. Xy dng dng tin ti chnh d n u t

Dng tin ca d n Dng tin ca ch s hu Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao Phn tch nh hng ca li vay

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3.4.1.Dng tin d n
Dng tin trc thu CFBT (Cash flow before tax)
CFBT = (Doanh thu + Thu nhp khc) (Chi ph vn hnh + Chi ph u t)
Chi ph vn hnh: Cc chi ph ca d n khng k khu hao v li vay

3.4.1.Dng tin d n
CFATt = CFBTt - (CFBT - D) . T CFATt = CFBTt(1-T) + D.T D.T : phn gim thu do khu hao Li nhun sau thu = Li nhun trc thu - Thu thu nhp = (CFBT D) (CFBT D)T = CFBT (1- T) + DT D = CFAT D CFATt = LN sau thut + Khu hao (Trng hp khng i vay)

Dng tin sau thu CFAT (Cash flow after tax) g ( )

CFAT = CFBT - Thu thu nhp Thu thu nhp: Thu nhp chu thu * Thu sut thu thu nhp (T) TN chu thu =Doanh thu - Chi ph hp l hp l (CP vn hnh + CP khu hao) = CFBTt - Dt Thu thu nhp = (CFBTt - Dt) . T

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3.4.2.Dng tin vn ch s hu
CFBTcsh = CFBTda - Tng tr n = CFBTda + CFBT n CFATcsh = CFBT thu thu nhp - Tng tr n
Thu thu nhp = Thu nhp chu thu * Thu sut T Thu nhp chu thu = CFBT - Khu hao - Tr li Thu thu nhp = (CFBT - D - Tr li).T = CFBT.T D.T R.T R.T : Phn gim thu do tr li vay CFATcsh = CFBT (1- T) + D.T +R.T Tng tr n = CFATda + (RT - Tng tr n) = CFATda + CFAT n
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3.4.2.Dng tin n
CFBTn = - Tng tr n CFATn = CFBTn + RT CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn

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3.4.3.Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao

3.4.4.Phn tch nh hng ca li vay

Mt d n u t i hi doanh nghip b ra 1000 v cho thu nhp 1120 cui mt nm. s tin l 1000 l s tin chi mua 1 ti sn, s tin 1120 l s tin thu c do hot ng v thu hi ti sn cui nm nh gi d n ny nh u t s dng chi ph s nm. dng vn l 10%. Xc nh NPV, IRR ca CSH, DA v N trong cc trng hp sau: + T = 0%/ T = 20% - 100% vn ch u t - 100% vn vay vi li vay 10% -50% vn vay vi li vay 10%

1.nh hng ca thi gian tnh khu hao 2.nh 2 nh hng ca m hnh tnh khu hao

Nhn xt
+ MARR = rvay NPVn = 0 CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn NPVcsh = NPVda + NPVn NPVcsh = NPVda + IRRda > rvay IRRcsh > IRRda + MARR > rvay NPVn (MARR) > 0 NPVcsh > NPVda
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4.Qun l ri ro trong d n
1. Ngun gc, phn loi ri ro trong d n u t 2. Phn tch lm pht v s thay i gi c hng ha dch v dng trong d n 3. Mt s phng php phn tch d n trong trng hp bt nh 4. Cc bin php gim thiu ri ro

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1. Ngun gc, phn loi ri ro trong d n u t

2. Phn tch lm pht v s thay i gi c hng ha dch v trong d n 1. Mi quan h gia li sut thc v li sut danh ngha 2. Phn tch lm pht trong trng hp gin n v trng hp d n phi np thu thu nhp 3. Phn tch gi c bit

* Cc yu t bn trong Phm vi d n Lch biu ca d n Trang thit b Vt liu Con ngi Quan h gia cc c nhn vi nhau T chc

* Cc yu t bn ngoi Thin nhin, thi tit, kh hu Cc cng thng chnh tr Cc quy nh ca chnh ph Nhng chuyn bin ca nn kinh t

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2.1.Mi quan h gia li sut thc v li sut danh ngha

2.2. Phn tch lm pht trong trng hp gin n v

trng hp d n phi np thu thu nhp

Li sut danh ngha l li sut cha loi b lm pht Li sut thc l li sut loi b lm pht 1 + R = (1+r)(1+j)
R: Li sut danh ngha r: Li sut thc j: T l lm pht

Mt doanh nghip u t vo mua thit b mi vi gi 10000$ d kin s dng trong 5 nm v gi tr cn li = 0. c tnh mi nm DA bn 1600 sp, sn xut s sn phm ny ngi ta phi dng 2000 kg NV theo gi hin hnh 2$/1kg NVL. Gi bn 10$/1SP, chi ph tin cng 8000$/1 nm. Gi s khng c thu thu nhp, TSC c khu hao u trong 5 nm 1. Gi s trong 5 nm thc hin DA gi c trn thc t khng bin ng v gi ca cc hng ho v dch v s dng trong DA cng khng bin ng. MARR = 10%. 2. Gi s mc tng gi khung trn TT l 5% (lp = 5%) v cc hng ho v
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dch v trong DA cng tng theo 5%.

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a.Trng hp thu sut t = 0

Khng c lm pht 0 1 2 3 4 Chi ph u t Doanh thu CVH CFBT -10 000 10 000 16 000 12 000 4 000 16 000 12 000 4 000 16 000 12 000 4 000 1 2 5

a.Trng hp thu sut t = 0

Khi khng c lm pht: NPV= -10.000+4.000 (P/A,10%,5) = 5163,16 Khi c lm pht R = 15,5 % NPV = 5163,168 Nhn xt Trong trng hp khng phi ng thu thu nhp cc hng ho v dch v ca DA cng tng theo ng t l lm pht. NPV trong trng hp c lm pht v khng c lm pht cng nh nhau. Trong phn tch DA c th dng dng tin thc vi li sut thc cng ging nh dng tin danh ngha vi li sut danh ngha.

C lm pht 1 2 3 4 Chi ph u t Doanh thu CVH CFBT -10 000 10 000 16 000x1.05 12 000x1.05 4 000x1.05 16000x1.05^2 12000x1.05^2 4000x1.05^2 16000x1.05^5 12000x1.05^5 4000x1.05^5

b.Trng hp thu sut t = 30%

Khng c lm pht 0 1 2 3 4 5 CFBT Khu hao CFBT (1-T) DT CFAT -10000 -10000 1 4000 2000 2800 600 3400 2 5 4000 2000 2800 600 3400

b.Trng hp thu sut t = 30%

NPV = -10.000 + 3400 (P/A, 10%, 5) = 2888,2 NPVlf = 2601,9
Nhn xt Lm pht lm cho li nhun DA gim trong trng hp tnh thu thu nhp doanh nghip Lm pht nh hng n kh nng thanh ton ca DA Gi tr thc ca ng i vay s gim khi c lm pht.

4000
2000 2800 600 3400

C lm pht 1 2 3 4 5 CFBT Khu hao CFBT (1-T) DT CFAT -10 000 -10 000 4 000x1.05 2000 28 00x1.05 600 2800x1.05 +600 4000x1.05^2 2000 2800x1.05^2 600 2800x1.05^ 2 + 600 4000x1.05^5 2000 2800x1.05^5 600 2800x1.05^5 + 600

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2.3. Phn tch gi c bit

2.3. Phn tch gi c bit

Yu cu: Xc nh NPV thay i nh th no khi trong nm th nht din ra nhng thay i nh sau: a. Chi ph nhn cng tng 10%, t l lm pht = 0 b. b Doanh thu tng 1000 t l lm pht = 0 1000,t c. Chi ph vn hnh tng thm 2500 d. Chi ph nhn cng tng thm 10%, t l lm pht l 10% Trong nhng TH trn, gi thit cc yu t khc gi khng i

Mt doanh nghip xem xt u t 10,000$ mua mt thit b s dng trong 5 nm (gi tr cn li bng 0), mi nm sn xut 1600 sn phm, s nguyn vt liu cn s dng l 2000 Kg, theo gi hi h h cng l l 6 000$ v gi 2$/k nguyn vt i hin hnh lao ng 6,000$ i 2$/kg liu, chi ph dch v mua ngoi l 1000$/nm v chi ph khc bng tin l 1000$/nm, bit thu sut thu thu nhp T = 30%, sn phm bn vi gi hin hnh l 10$/sn phm, i = 10%

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3. Cc phng php phn tch d n trong

trng hp bt nh

3.1.Phn tch nhy

1. Phn tch nhy 2. Phng php xc sut tnh ton ri ro d n gp p 3. Phng php cy quyt nh

L k thut nhm xc nh kt qu ca d n thay i th no khi mt yu t u vo thay i trong khi cc yu t khc vn gi nguyn

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3.1.Phn tch nhy

L k thut phn tch nhm xc nh mc thay i ca kt qu khi thay i mt mc nht nh mt yu t u vo, trong khi c nh cc yu t khc i vi d n: Xc nh mc nh hng ca tng yu t n kt qu d n vi gi thit cc yu t khc khng thay i: Cho cc yu t bin ng theo t l nht nh Xc nh bin ng ca cc ch tiu hiu qu Xp hng cc yu t tc ng n kt qu ca d n * Doanh thu

3.1.Phn tch nhy

Cc yu t nh hng n kt qu d n
Gi bn Lng bn Kt cu mt hng Chi ph u t

* Chi ph

Gi thit b, my mc Tin thu mt bng, t ai Chi ph vn hnh (nguyn vt liu, tin lng, dch v mua ngoi, chi ph khc bng tin) Trnh cng ngh Trnh qun l
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Mc tiu hao cc ngun lc

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3.1.Phn tch nhy

* Thu thu nhp * Li sut chit khu Phng thc huy ng vn Li sut trn th trng vn Mc ri ro ca d n T l lm pht T l sinh li ca ngnh

3.1.Phn tch nhy

VD: Xt d n nh trn NPV ca d n thay i nh th no trong cc TH sau: Chi ph u t tng 10% Gi bn sn phm gim 10%

* Thi gian thc hin d n

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3.1.Phn tch nhy

Trng hp ban u khi cha cho cc yu t u vo thay i
Nm Chi ph u t Doanh th D h thu Chi ph vn hnh CFBT D CFAT -10000 -10000 0 -10000 16000 12000 4000 200 3400 1-5

3.1.Phn tch nhy

Trng hp chi ph u t tng 10%, cc yu t khc khng i
Nm CFAT CFAT 0 -11000 -1000 1-5 3460 60 (= DT= 200*0.3)

NPV = -10000 + 3400(P/A,10%,5) = 2888,72

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CFAT = 60 NPV = -1000 + 60 (P/A, 10%, 5) = -772 NPV = (-772/2888,72). 100% = -26,74%
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3.1.Phn tch nhy

Trng hp gi bn gim10%, cc yu t khc khng i thu gim 10%, doanh thu = 16000 - 1600= 14400
Nm CFBT CFBT 0 -10000 10000 0 1-5 2400 -1600

3.1.Phn tch nhy

doanh

CFBT = -1600 CFAT = CFBT (1-T) = -1600.0,7 = -1120 NPV = -1120 (P/A,10%,5) = -4245 NPV = (-4245/2888,72). 100% = -147%
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u im ca phng php D tnh ton v gii thch, c th d dng thc hin bng cc chng trnh my tnh n gin Cho thy khuynh hng tc ng v mc nh hng ca tng yu t Khng i hi c tnh xc sut Nhc im ca phng php Khng c xc sut ca kt qu cui cng Gii hn trong s tng tc ca cc bin (khng thy c tc ng ca cc yu t vi nhau)
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3.2. Phn tch xc sut

Cc khi nim lin quan * K vng ca NPV

3.2. Phn tch xc sut

* Phng sai ca NPV
2 ( NPV ) =

E ( NPV ) = p j
j =1

NPV

j =1

p j NPV

E ( NPV )

* lch chun ca NPV l h h

( NPV ) =

E(NPV) : K vng ca NPV m: S s kin Pj: Xc sut ca s kin j NPVj: Gi tr hin ti thun ca s kin j E(NPVj) cng cao cng tt
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j =1

[NPV

E ( NPV )

lch chun NPV cng ln, phn tn thng tin cng nhiu th ri ro d n cng cao
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3.2. Phn tch xc sut

* H s bin i: L t s gia lch chun v k
vng NPV ca d n, ni ln mc ri ro trn mt n v k vng

4.3. Phng php cy quyt nh

- Cc s liu v kt qu c biu din di dng hnh cy - Cy quyt nh bao gm:
Nt quyt nh q y Nt bt nh Cc nhnh - Gp nt quyt nh: Tnh kt qu mi nhnh v chn nhnh c gi tr ti u - Gp nt bt nh: Tnh kt qu tng cc nhnh ti nt
95 96

CV =

( NPV )
E ( NPV )

D n c CV cng nh th cng tt v ngc li

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Bi tp p dng
Phn tch theo cy quyt nh
DN c 3 phng n: - u t mi: 140 t (nt A) - u t m rng (nt B):giai on 1 : 25 t, giai on 2 : 60t, sau giai on 1 h nm hai - Khng u t (nt C) Cho n = 10 nm v i = 10% Cho cy quyt nh vi cc XS v dng tin li nh hnh v, hy gip DN xc nh phng n ti u?
A

Bi tp p dng
Tt

0,7

30

Bnh thng

0,3
Tt

10 0,9 0,1 0,9 0,1 20 9 6 3

Tt G 1

t g 2

2
Khng t Bnh thng

D E
0,3

Bthg Tt Bthg

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4. Cc bin php gim thiu ri ro

N trnh : Nu ri ro ca d n cao th loi b ngay t u, khng thc hin d n Phng trnh: theo ui 1 con ng khc vi d nh ban u

4. Cc bin php gim thiu ri ro

Ngn nga thit hi: l cc hot ng nhm gim bt xc sut xy ra ca ri ro: - Xc nh nguyn nhn cn bn l g (ngun gc thit hi) - Xc nh cc bin php phng nga thch hp - Xem li ton b k hoch ca d n phi hp mi hnh ng phng nga sao cho khng b b st hoc lng qun.
V d nh lo ngi v kh nng ca cc k s kim tra cht lng sn phm, d n s t chc nhng kha o to nng cao trnh k nng cho nhn vin, iu ny m bo xc sut xy ra sn phm li do nhn vin khng trnh c gim thiu.

loi b kh nng i mt vi mi e da
Chuyn giao (mua bo him): l s chuyn dch ri ro theo hp ng, l cng c qun l ri ro ph hp khi m kh nng thit hi thp nhng mc thit hi c th rt nghim trng. Lm du s tc ng: lm gim bt hiu ng tiu cc ca ri ro, xy dng cc k hoch i ph, lm gim mc thit hi khi ri ro xy ra

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4. Cc bin php gim thiu ri ro

Tnh hung 1: Cng ty A trin khai d n gii thiu sn phm gh vn phng cao cp, nhm d n tin rng tt c thnh qu ca hot ng nghin cu chuyn su ny s vn c gi tr sau hai nm na, khi sn phm c gii thiu ra th trng. Yu t khng chc chn duy nht l mu sc. Nh qun l d n than phin: Nm nay mi ngi thch mu en v xm, n nm sau li chung mu ht d, khng lm sao m on c mu no s thu ht khch hng . ng ta ngh n gii php sn xut loi hng gh mi vi c bn hoc 5 mu vi hy vng mt vi mu trong s s c a chung nhng chin lc lm ny sinh vn tn kho v khng gii quyt c dt im vng mc v mu sc. Cui cng nhm chn cch gii quyt a vic chn mu vo giai on cui trong quy trnh thit k v sn xut, trng phng sn xut ni: chng ta s lm ra cc b phn ca sn phm nhng khng bc vi vi, khi c n hng chng ta c th nhanh chng bc gh theo mu sc v s khng c sn phm lu kho. Bng vic chn phng php ny, nh qun l d n phng trnh c nguy c ri ro mu sc.
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4. Cc bin php gim thiu ri ro

Tnh hung 2:
Cng ty B c d n lp t h thng mng cho mt trng hc v cng vic ny phi hon thnh trc thi im din ra nm hc mi. D n ny i hi hng nghn m cp mng, ri ro y l ngun cung cp cp t pha nh cung cp chnh do nhu cu v cp trn th trng ang rt cao v nh cung cp ny l i va phi gii quyt nhng t h chp l gay h li hi ii t h tranh h lao ng gt. Do vy nhng nh qun l d n thit lp mt s mi lin h vi nhng nh cung cp khc, k c nh cung cp nh, d tr thm mt s lng cp, thit lp mt qu mua sm d phng cp trong trng hp phi mua vi gi cao hn. Khng lu trc ngy khai ging, nh cung cp chnh thng bo khng th giao ht s cp cn thit, lc ny nh qun l d n s dng qu d phng mua s m cp cn thit, ng nhin vic ny cng gy cht thit hi cho d n nhng b li d n c hon thnh ng hn nh yu cu ca khch hng
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