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VIN CHNH SCH V CHIN LC PHT TRIN NNG NGHIP NNG THN

TRUNG TM T VN CHNH SCH & QLKT


*************

NGHIN CU TIU TH C PH TRONG NC


TI H NI V TP H CH MINH

Nhm nghin cu: Trn Th Qunh Chi1


Muriel Figui2
Trn Th Thanh Nhn3

H Ni, thng 3/2006


1

Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc Pht trin Nng nghip Nng thn (IPSARD)
Chuyn gia ca t chc CIRAD, Php
3
Trung tm T vn Chnh sch Nng nghip, IPSARD
2

MC LC
DANH SC BIU V BNG
DANH SCH CC T VIT TT
LI TA
CHNG I.........................................................................................................................9
GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU.......................................................................9
1. Bi cnh v ngha ca nghin cu........................................................................9
2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu........................................................................................11
3. Phng php nghin cu.......................................................................................11
3.1. Ngun s liu.................................................................................................11
3.1.1. S liu th cp.........................................................................................11
3.1.2. S liu s cp...........................................................................................11
3.2. Phng php phn tch..................................................................................13
3.2.1. Phn tch thng k m t........................................................................13
3.2.2. Phng php phn tch kinh t lng......................................................14
4. Hn ch ca nghin cu:........................................................................................14
CHNG II.....................................................................................................................15
TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM......................................15
I. TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII..........................................................15
II. NHNG NT CHNH V TNH HNH TIU TH C PH VIT NAM .........19
1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua VHLSS nm 2002.......................19
1.1. Khc bit gia nng thn v thnh th..........................................................19
1.2. Khc bit gia cc nhm thu nhp.................................................................20
1.3. Khc bit gia cc vng................................................................................21
2. Tiu th c ph Vit Nam - nhn nh t cc ngun thng tin khc.....................22
Hp 1................................................................................................................................25
CHNG III....................................................................................................................26
XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI HAI
THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH....................................................................26
I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH....................................................................26
1. c im h gia nh ............................................................................................26
1.1 tui............................................................................................................26
1.2 Trnh gio dc............................................................................................26
1.3 Vic lm..........................................................................................................27
1.4 Thu nhp.........................................................................................................27
2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh................................................................29
2.1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca cc h iu tra.........................29
2.1.1. Tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh.............................................31
2.1.2. Tnh hnh c ph c cho/tng nm 2004..............................................36
2.1.3 C ph mua tng...................................................................................38
2.2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca tng c nhn............................39
3. Tnh hnh tiu th ngoi gia nh...........................................................................41
4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph
tiu th ti hai Thnh ph..........................................................................................43
2

4.1. Phn tch c ph tiu th trong gia nh.........................................................43


4.2. Phn tch tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh........................................................45
II. KT QU IU TRA QUN GII KHT...........................................................46
1. c im qun.......................................................................................................46
2. Tnh hnh mua c ph.............................................................................................47
3. Tnh hnh bn c ph..............................................................................................48
CHNG IV....................................................................................................................51
KT LUN V KHUYN NGH...................................................................................51
1. Kt lun..................................................................................................................51
1.1. iu tra h gia nh........................................................................................51
1.2. iu tra qun c ph......................................................................................53
2. Khuyn ngh...........................................................................................................53
TI LIU THAM KHO

DANH SCH BIU V BNG

Hnh 1
Hnh 2
Hnh 3
Hnh 4
Hnh 5
Hnh 6

Phn b mu ti cc qun H Ni
Phn b mu ti cc qun TPHCM
Tiu th C ph u ngi mt s nc (kg/ngi/nm)
Sn xut, xut khu v tiu th C ph Indonesia 1998 - 2003 (tn)
Bin ng gi C ph th gii nm 2004 (USD/tn)
Lng (kg/ngi) v gi tr 1000/ngi tiu th c ph bnh qun u

Hnh 7
Hnh 8
Hnh 9
Hnh 10
Hnh 11
Hp 1
Hnh 12
Hnh 13
Hnh 14
Hnh 15
Hnh 16
Hnh 17
Hnh 18
Hnh 19
Hnh 20
Hnh 21
Hnh 22
Hnh 23
Hnh 24
Hnh 25
Hnh 26
Hnh 27
Hnh 28
Hnh 29
Hnh 30
Hnh 31
Hnh 32
Hnh 33
Hnh 34
Hnh 35
Hnh 36
Hnh 37

ngi nng thn v thnh th nm 2002


Lng tiu th c ph bt v ung lin (kg/ngi)
Tiu th c ph u ngi theo nhm thu nhp nm 2002
Lng c ph bt v ung lin theo nhm thu nhp (kg/ngi/nm)
Tiu th c ph u ngi theo nhm thu nhp nm 2002
% lng c ph tiu th theo cc hng khc nhau
Ung c ph - la chn tng lai ca ngi Vit Nam
% s ngi phn theo gii v h - HN
% s ngi phn theo gii v h - TPHCM
Trnh gio dc cc h iu tra ti H Ni v TPHCM (s ngi)
Ngh nghip ca cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TPHCM (s ngi)
% s h phn theo nhm thu nhp
Thu nhp trung bnh mt thng ca h iu tra (000 /ngi/thng)
Thu nhp bnh qun theo nhm h (000/ngi/thng)
Tng tiu th c ph u ngi trong gia nh nm 2004
So snh tng lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh 2002 - 2004
So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h H Ni (Gr/ngi/nm)
So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h HCM (gr/ngi/nm)
% s h mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004
Tng lng mua c ph u ngi cho tiu th trong gia nh nm 2004
Lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004
Lng c ph mua vi ln/nm ti hai TP nm 2004
Lng c ph mua vi ln/thng hoc tun nm 2004
Mc ch tiu dng c ph H Ni
Mc ch mua c ph ti TPHCM
% lng c ph c tng trn tng tiu th c ph nm 2004
Tnh hnh c ph c cho tng nm 2004
Lng c ph c cho tng theo nhm h (gr/ngi/nm)
Tnh hnh mua c ph tng H Ni v TP HCM
Lng mua c ph tng phn theo loi h (gr/ngi/nm)
Tn sut tiu dng c nhn ti nh nm 2004
S ngi tiu dng cc loi c ph nm 2004
Thi gian tiu dng c ph c nhn ti nh nm 2004 (s ngi)

Hnh 38
Hnh 39
Bng 1
Hnh 40
Hnh 41

S ngi tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh


Loi c ph c tiu dng ngoi nm 2004
Lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh HN v TPHCM
Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun v lng c ph tiu th H Ni
Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th

Bng 2
Bng 3
Bng 4

TPHCM
Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun H Ni
Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun HCM
Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung

Bng 5

bnh ti H Ni
Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung

Hnh 42
Hnh 43
Hnh 44
Hnh 45
Hnh 46
Hnh 47

bnh ti TPHCM
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph theo loi qun (kg/nm)
Tnh hnh bn c ph ti hai thnh ph
T l khch hng tiu th c ph v cc loi nc ung khc nm 2003
T l khch hng nhc n cc thng hiu c ph.

DANH SCH CC T VIT TT

STT

Tn vit tt

Tn y

ICARD

Trung tm Tin hc v Thng k

ICO

T chc c ph th gii

IPSARD

Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PT NN-NT

MARD

B Nng nghip v PTNT

MISPA

D n Tng cng nng lc thng tin phc v cng tc


hoch nh chnh sch nng nghip

VICOFA

Hip hi c ph ca cao Vit Nam

LI TA

Nghin cu Nghin cu tiu th c ph trong nc ti H Ni v TP H Ch Minh"


c hon thnh vi s ng gp ca nhiu t chc c nhn.
Trc ht, nhm nghin cu xin chn thnh cm n i S qun Php - D n Tng
cng nng lc thng tin phc v cng tc hoch nh chnh sch nng nghip (MISPA)
h tr kinh ph trin khai nghin cu ny.
Nhm nghin cu xin cm n TS. ng Kim Sn, Vin trng Vin chnh sch v Chin
lc PT NN-NT gi tng, ng gp kin nhn xt v h tr nhm nghin cu
hon tt bo co ny. Ngoi ra, cng xin gi li cm n ti cc cn b Trung tm T vn
Chnh sch Nng nghip, Trung tm Thng tin Pht trin Nng nghip nng thn
(Agroinfo), D n MISPA v mt s phng ban khc trong Vin Chnh sch v Chin
lc Pht trin NN-NT, c bit l c s pha Nam ca IPSARD to iu kin v ng
gp kin cho nhm nghin cu.
Bo co ny cng khng th hon thin nu thiu s gip , hng dn nhit tnh ca
cc chuyn gia thuc t chc CIRAD-Php, c bit l TS. Muriel Figui.
Bo co ny c hon thin trong thi gian ngn (6 thng) v iu kin kinh ph hn
hp, v vy khng th trnh c thiu st. Nhm nghin cu rt mong nhn c kin
ng gp ca bn c tip tc hon thin bo co ny.
Nhm nghin cu xin chn thnh cm n.

CHNG I
GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU

1. Bi cnh v ngha ca nghin cu


Kim ngch xut khu c ph c ngha quan trng i vi nhiu nc trn th gii. Gn
1/4 cc nc thuc t chc c ph quc t (ICO) c kim ngch c ph chim khong 20%
tng kim ngch xut khu. Nhiu nc, kim ngch xut khu c ph chim t 75% n
80% tng kim ngch xut khu. Hin c khong 125 triu ngi trn th gii sng ph
thuc vo cy c ph. Trong mt na sn lng c ph th gii c trng cc trang
tri nh vi din tch nh hn 5 ha. Ti Chu Phi, t trng ng gp sn lng c ph ch
yu do cc h gia nh nh m nhn, chim khong 95%.
C ph khng ch c ngha v mt kinh t m cn c ngha to ln v chnh tr nhiu
nc trn th gii. S st gim gi c ph ngay lp tc nh hng n thu nhp ca
ngi dn nhiu nc, t l ngho i, bt bnh ng v cc ch s kinh t v m khc.
T nm 1998 n 2001, t l i ngho ca nng dn lm trong ngnh c ph Nicaragua
tng hn 2% trong khi t l ngho i khu vc nng thn nc ny li gim ti 6%, do
, chnh ph nhiu nc sn xut c ph mong mun hp tc mang li s n nh lu
di cho th trng c ph, gip cn bng th trng c ph th gii, gp phn tng kim
ngch xut khu v n nh thu nhp cho ngi trng c ph.
Cy c ph khng ch c ngha v kinh t v chnh tr m cn vt xa hn l biu tng
v nim am m ca nhiu ngi, nhiu ni trn th gii. Ngi trng c ph nhiu ni
trn th gii coi c ph l biu tng ca qu hng mnh, ni mnh sinh sng. Cy c
ph l vt trang tr cho cc trang tri giu c. Trong thi k khng hong gi, nhiu ngi
dn c ku gi cht bt cy c ph v chuyn sang cc loi cy trng khc. Nhiu
ngi thc hin nhng nhiu ngi khng lm theo. Mt cu ni ni ting v gy
xc ng mnh ca mt ngi trng c ph Colombia khi c khuyn co cht b cy
c ph "Ti lm vic trang tri ny hn 20 nm v th ct t tay mnh cn hn
cht nhng ci cy m ti yu qu v chm sc chng bao nhiu nm nay, c
k i k li hng trm ln cc trung tm thng mi c ph trn ton th gii.4
Khi th trng c ph th gii ri vo khng hong trong 4 nm gn y. Gi c ph th
gii gim xung mc thp k lc trong vng 40 nm qua, nh hng nghim trng n
li ch ngnh c ph ni chung v cc i tng tham gia sn xut, ch bin v tiu th c
ph ni ring. Trn th gii c khong 20-25 triu h gia nh, phn ln l h nng dn
nh trn tng s trn 50 nc ang pht trin sn xut v bn c ph. Nhiu ngi trong
s h phi i mt vi nhng kh khn ln do gi c ph gim mnh.
4

http://www.math.grin.edu/~khannabh/colombia/coffee.php

Theo nghin cu ca ICARD, OXFAM Anh v OXFAM Hng Kng nm 2001, mc


sng ca hu ht ngi trng c ph k Lk u c xu hng gim, h giu chuyn
xung kh, kh xung trung bnh, trung bnh xung ngho v ngho xung i. Nhiu h
khng lng thc n v n ngn hng do vay tin u t vo trng c ph trong
nhng nm trc , bnh qun 4,5 triu ng. Nhiu c s thu gom v cc doanh nghip
ch bin xut khu c ph ang n ng ngn hng, bnh qun hn 5 t ng. Vit Nam
l mt trong s nhng nc chu thit hi nhiu nht t cuc khng hong gi.
Mt trong nhng gii php c a ra gim thiu tc hi ca cuc khng hong l
tng cng tiu th c ph trong nc. Tng tiu th c ph s gip iu chnh li cn
bng cung cu th trng, gip tng gi c ph tr cho ngi sn xut, to c hi tng gi
tr gia tng, to cng n vic lm, tng thu v pht trin kinh t ni chung. Trong vng
35 nm qua, cu c ph tng ti 11 ln trong nhng nm gi c ph ln cao. Tuy nhin,
mc tng ny khng vt qu hai nm. Hng nm lng tiu th c ph th gii tng
trung bnh khong 1 triu bao (Surendra, 2001)
V vn ny, c mt s nghin cu cp n, nhng ch yu tp trung vo tiu th
trong nc ca cc nc trn th gii.
Cho n nay, cha c nghin cu no nh gi c th tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong nc
ca Vit Nam nh bnh qun tiu th c ph u ngi ca Vit Nam, xu th tiu th,
kh khn trong qu trnh khuyn khch tiu th c ph ... c bit, nghin cu v tm l
ngi mua v ngi tiu dng c ph v cc nghin cu marketing khc cha c cc
nh sn xut v xut khu c ph Vit Nam quan tm tho ng (Hong Thy Bng,
2003). Nm 2003, cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn, mt trong nhng cng ty ch bin v
bun bn c ph trong nc ln nht Vit Nam tin hnh nghin cu nhm (i) tm hiu
nhn thc ca ngi tiu dng v thng hiu; (ii) v tr thng hiu Trung Nguyn trong
th trng c ph hin nay; (iii) nghin cu s thch tiu dng thc ung ca khch hng,
(iv) xy dng k hoch cho sn phm mi c ph nc ung lin. Tuy a ra nhng
nhn nh rt hiu qu v thng hiu, c bit l s thch tiu dng thc ung ca ngi
Vit Nam ti 4 thnh ph ln, nhng do phc v mc ch kinh doanh nn nghin cu
khng khi qut tnh hnh tiu th c ph v nh gi c nhng thi quen tiu dng c
ph ni chung ca ngi dn thnh th. Nhng s liu v nhn nh trong bo co khng
th khi qut ho lm c s cho vic hoch nh mt chin lc tiu th c ph trong
nc.
V vy, nghin cu v tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong nc ca Vit Nam l rt cn thit
trong bi cnh hin nay. Tuy nhin, do ngun lc v thi gian hn ch nn nghin cu ch
tp trung vo vic nh gi tiu th c ph ti hai thnh ph ln, H Ni v Thnh ph
H Ch Minh.

10

2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu

nh gi tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong nc ti H Ni v TP H Ch Minh,


phn theo loi c ph v theo v tr a l.

Xc nh cc xu th, thi quen tiu th c ph khc nhau v tim nng tiu th c


ph.

Da trn nhng nh gi ny, xc nh cc chnh sch gip tng tiu th c ph


trong nc v xc nh cc yu t thit lp h thng thng tin theo di nhu cu
tiu th c ph trong nc.

3. Phng php nghin cu


3.1. Ngun s liu
3.1.1. S liu th cp
Nghin cu ny trc ht khai thc b s liu ca iu tra Mc sng Dn C Vit Nam
nm 1998 v 2002 (VHLSS). Cuc iu tra nm 1998 tp trung vo 6002 h v nm
2002 iu tra 30000 h. Mc d s mu khc nhau nhng hu ht cc h c iu tra
nm 1998 cng c iu tra li vo nm 2002, v vy cng c th so snh tiu th v chi
tiu bnh qun u ngi ca hai iu tra ny. T hai b s liu ny, nhm nghin cu c
th khai thc mt s thng tin sau: lng v gi tr tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi
ti h gia nh chia theo thnh th, nng thn, 8 vng sinh thi v nhm thu nhp. Ngoi
ra, thng tin v nhu cu tiu th ca ung thay th nh ch cng c khai thc. T
, nhm nghin cu s c c s xc nh tip nhng thng tin cn thu thp trong iu
tra thc a.
3.1.2. S liu s cp
iu tra c tin hnh 1 ln ti mt s h gia nh c chn, phng vn trc tip
nhng ngi chu trch nhim mua lng thc cho gia nh bng mt bng hi c
nh m.
Cch ly mu: phng php chn mu, ch tiu chn mu
iu tra h
Cuc iu tra mang tnh cht m t cn mt s lng mu ln, t nht l 350 mu/thnh
ph. Vic ly mu da trn phng php ly mu hai ln theo nhm - The two stage
cluster sampling procedure (Ginhoux, 2001). Phng php c th nh sau:
-

Chn cc qun c nhng iu kin a dng v v tr, mc sng.

Trong mi qun, phng, t v h c chn ngu nhin nh sau: s lng h


c chn tng ng vi % dn c trong qun so vi thnh ph. Trong mi qun
ny, nhm iu tra chn 1-3 t trong mt phng, 8-12 h trong mt t. Trc
11

khi iu tra, trng nhm nghin cu cung cp tn qun, s lng h, t, phng


cho cc iu tra vin.
-

cp h, ngi iu tra c th cn c trn danh sch do t trng cung cp hoc


xung a bn, c 5 h, chn 1 h iu tra. Nu h i vng hoc khng th
tip cn c th chn ngay h bn cnh. Cc h sau vn tip tc lp li
phng php trn.

S mu c phn b nh trong hnh di y.


Hnh1: Phn b mu ti cc qun H Ni
Hong Mai

Hnh 2: Phn b mu ti cc qun TP HCM

Ba nh

Tn Ph

Qun 1

Thanh Xun

Qun 3

G Vp

Cu Giy

Hai B
Trng
Hon Kim

Qun 11
Bnh Thnh

Qun 6

iu tra qun c ph
iu tra ny mang tnh cht phn tch nhiu hn l m t. Vic chn mu ph thuc vo
vo mt s mt s c im v v tr v quy m ca qun. mi thnh ph tin hnh
iu tra 20 qun c ph, phn ra cc loi nh sau:
-

Qun c ph nh: bn nh, ch bn rt t chng loi c ph (en, nu, nng v ),


c bn thm ch v t loi nc qu.

Cc qun c ph c bit (Highland Coffee, Trung Nguyen,): din tch rng,


bn cao, nhiu loi ung v c km n.

Lot qun c ph/nh hng ln

Qun c ph km rang xay.

Ni dung cc loi bng hi

Bng hi h gia nh
-

Cc thng tin chung v tng thnh vin trong h (tn, gii tnh, tui, ngh nghip,
trnh hc vn...). Nhng thng tin ny rt cn thit xc nh cc nhm i
tng tiu th c ph chnh.

12

Thng tin v thu nhp ca tng thnh vin v tng thu nhp ca c h gia nh
c thu thp c th nh gi c tng quan gia thu nhp c nhn v h
vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph.

Lng v gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi ti h gia nh (c mua v tiu


dng, mua tng v c cho tng) phn theo tng loi c ph c thu thp
cho nm 2004, c so snh vi nm 2002 thy c s bin i trong tiu th c
ph ca h. Ngoi ra, phn ny cng cp thm nhng thng tin v thi gian
tiu th chnh trong ngy, thi gian tiu th chnh trong nm, l do thay i c
ph tiu th trong 2 nm (nu c).

Lng v gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi bn ngoi h gia nh. Phn ny


cng thu thp nhng thng tin tng t nh phn iu tra tiu th trong h, ch
cp thm a im ung c ph chnh. y l thng tin rt quan trng gip
nhm nghin cu nh hng cho t iu tra tip theo.

Phn thng tin chung bao gm nhng cu hi m c tnh cht nh tnh v nhng
nguyn nhn chnh khin ngi trong gia nh ung c ph, nhng nhn nh v
nhm ngi ung c ph chnh v nhng nguyn nhn chnh hn ch tiu th c
ph trong nc.

Bng hi qun c ph
-

Cc thng tin chung v qun c ph: quy m, a im, ngy gi m ca, thi
gian bn c ph chnh trong ngy, loi c ph v thc ung, doanh thu ca ca
hng nm 2002 v 2004

Thng tin v ngun cung cp c ph: tng lng mua c ph hng thng, v lng
mua c ph theo loi c ph, nhn hiu, xut x, c s cung cp.

Thng tin v tnh hnh bn c ph ca qun: tn c ph trong thc n, lng c


ph bn theo 4 bui hng ngy, gi n v, phn trm ca ngi tiu dng vo
qun ung c ph; phn trm doanh thu t c ph v c ph trong tng doanh
thu t cc loi ung bn ti qun (khng tnh ru bia); loi c ph bn chy
nht; loi c ph no c tiu th nhiu hn trong thi im trong ngy; loi c
ph no c bn nhiu hn cho nhm khch hng no.

Phn thng tin chung bao gm nhng cu hi m cng c ni dung tng t nh


iu tra h

3.2. Phng php phn tch


3.2.1. Phn tch thng k m t
Phng php phn tch thng k m t c s dng khai thc s liu iu tra thc
a. Do y ch l mt nghin cu nh gi tnh hnh nn vic s dng phng php

13

ny l rt hiu qu nhm a ra bc tranh tng th v tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti hai


thnh ph ln
3.2.2. Phng php phn tch kinh t lng
-

Cc cng c kinh t lng c s dng trc ht phn tch tnh hnh tiu th
c ph v ch trong nm 1998 v 2002 t b s liu iu tra mc sng dn c ca
Tng cc Thng k.

Nhm nghin cu cng p dng phng php ny phn tch tng quan gia
thu nhp ca h v cc thnh vin trong h vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph.
Ngoi ra, mt s tng quan khc cng c xt n nh trnh hc vn, tui,
gii tnh, ngh nghip vi tnh hnh tiu th.

4. Hn ch ca nghin cu:
-

Nghin cu ch tp trung nh gi tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti hai thnh ph ln


H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh.

y l nghin cu mang tnh cht m t, nh gi tnh hnh nhiu hn l phn


tch. Mt khc, y ch l nghin cu m u, lm c s cho nhng nghin cu
ln sau ny v pht trin tiu th c ph trong nc. V vy nghin cu khng c
tham vng a ra nhng khuyn ngh ln v mt chnh sch.

i tng phc v ca nghin cu ny khng tp trung nhiu vo cc nh nghin


cu v hoch nh chnh sch m phn ln s c ph bin rng ri cho cc
doanh nghip kinh doanh trong nc.

Mc d nghin cu c kt hp phn tch s liu tiu th trong nc ca Cuc iu


tra mc sng dn c Vit Nam (VLSS) nhng s liu cng ch c tnh cht
tham kho. Kt qu iu tra thc a cha chc phn nh ng s liu iu tra
trong VLSS nhng cng l iu d hiu do nghin cu ny ch tp trung vo
tiu th c ph ch khng dn tri nh VLSS.

14

CHNG II
TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM

I. TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII


Trong vng 35 nm qua, cu c ph th gii tng ti 11 ln trong nhng nm gi c ph
ln cao. Tuy nhin, mc tng ny khng vt qu hai nm. Gn y, nhu cu c ph th
gii tng khong 90.000 tn/nm (1,5-1,7%/nm). T l tng mnh nht tp trung vo
Nht Bn, Trung Quc, Nga v cc nc ng u.
u tin l th trng Nht Bn. Nm 1965, mc tiu th bnh qun ch khong 300
g/ngi/nm do ngi dn vn quen ung tr nhng hin c mc tiu th c ph tng
i cao 3,17 kg/ngi/nm v d bo nhu cu nhp khu c ph vo Nht Bn s tng
2,5%/nm trong thp k ny.
Tip theo Nht Bn l th trng Trung Quc. Cng vi tc tng trng kinh t cao
nht th gii trong nhiu nm qua v vic hnh thnh mt lot cc khu cng nghip ven
bin Thi Bnh Dng, ngi dn Trung Quc dn chuyn t vn ho ung ch sang
ung c ph vi mc tng tiu th c ph hng nm t ti 30%. Mc d y ch l bc
nhy vt t con s ban u qu nh b do vn ho ung tr n su vo tim thc ca
ngi dn nhng do lng c ph tiu th bnh qun tnh trn u ngi dn lc a vn
thp hn nhiu so vi cc nc khc, 1kg/ngi/nm nn d bo th trng nhp khu c
ph vo Trung Quc s tng mnh trong thp k ti.5
Tip theo Trung Quc l th trng Nga, cc nc ng v Nam u. C ph ngy cng
c coi l ung thi thng Nga v nhu cu tiu th tng ln r rt. Theo d bo
ca ICO tiu th ti th trng ny s tng 10%/nm. C ph ho tan hin nay kh c
a chung ti Nga v ngy cng nhiu cng ty trong nc tham gia vo sn xut loi sn
phm ny. Nhp khu ca cc nc ng u khc d bo s tng khong 1-1,5%/nm
trong thp k ti. Nhu cu d bo s tng nhanh Hy Lp, Italia v B o Nha.
Tiu th c ph u ngi M c xu hng tng ln cht t trong nm 2003, t
4,24kg/ngi/nm so vi mc 3,94 kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2002 nhng vn cha vt
c mc cao ca nm 1999. Hng nm, nhu cu ca M tng khong 3,5-4%.
Ngoi ra, cu c ph cng c chiu hng gia tng cc nc sn xut, nht l Brazil.
Hin nay, Brazil, cng nh mt s quc gia sn xut c ph hng u khc, bt u
nhn thc c tm quan trng ca vic y mnh tiu dng c ph trong nc. Brazil
khng ch l nc xut khu c ph ng u th gii m cn xp th 2 sau M trong
vic tiu th c ph. Nc ny tiu th trn 13 triu bao mi nm, chim khong 40% sn
5

Nguyn S Ngh, Cy c ph Vit Nam, NXB Nng nghip, 1982.

15

lng. Cc quan chc Braxin cho bit, sc mua ca ngi dn ang gia tng v s cn
tip tc tng trong nm ti. Tiu th ni a ca Braxin ang tng nhanh hn d kin.
Tnh n thng 10/04, bnh qun mi ngi dn tiu th 4,01 kg c ph - mc cao nht k
t thp nin 60. Ngnh c ph Brazil t mc tiu tng lng tiu th ni a ln 1,5
triu bao mi nm thng qua cc chng trnh qung co v khuyn mi, y mc tiu
th bnh qun ln 5,3 kg/ngi. Theo Hip hi cc nh xut khu c ph Braxin, tiu th
c ph ni a nm nay ca nc ny c tnh t 14,9 triu bao trong nm 2005, v con
s ny s tng ln 15,5 triu bao vo nm 2006. Ch tch Hip hi c ph Braxin Guivan
Bueno cho bit, Braxin d nh s nng mc tiu th ni a ln 21 triu bao vo nm
2010 v vt qua M.
Tng cu c ph cc nc tiu th truyn thng c xu hng chng li. Tuy nhin, cu
tiu th c ph ung lin, cc sn phm c ph cht lng cao v khc bit li ang c
a chung. ng thi, cc th trng ny cng tng thi quen tiu dng c ph kiu
Hnh 3: Tiu th c ph u ngi mt s nc (kg/ngi/nm)
6.00

EC

5.00

4.00
3.00

Nc NK khc
Nht Bn

2.00
1.00
0.00
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Ngun: USDA (2004)

espresso, loi c ph khng ph thuc qu nhiu vo hng v c ph arabica c ch


bin t. Cc th trng truyn thng Ty u v Bc M c xu hng tng chm do
lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi hin mc cao nh Phn Lan 11,21
kg/ngi/nm, B - Luxembourg 9,6 kg/ngi/nm, c 6,64 kg/ngi/nm v M 4,24
kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2003 (theo USDA). Ngi Anh vn thch ung tr cng tiu
dng khong 2,2 kg/ngi v Ai Len l 1,31 kg/ngi. Do , mc tng nhu cu d bo
khong 1,3%/nm t nay n nm 2010 ch tng ng vi tc tng trng dn s
cc nc ny, so snh vi mc 2,3% trong thp k 90 th k XX.
Trong khi , tiu th c ph cc nc nhp khu khc c xu th gim khong 1,5% so
vi nm 2002, ch t 3,47 kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2003.

16

Hnh 4:600,000
Sn xut, xut khu v tiu th c ph Indonesia 1998-2003 (tn)
Thanh Xun

500,000

490,734

384,893

400,000
343,510
300,000

477,289

449,387

450,676

448,510

328,176

(76,59%)

289,893

(72,82%)

(75,32%)

325,289

310,387
(69,07%)

332,734

(68,15%)

(67,67%)

127,000

133,000

200,000

100,000

89,000

80,000
(20,8%)

(17,8%)

102,500
(22,7%)

114,000

(26,6%)

(25,4%)

(27,7%)

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

Nm
Sn xut

Xut khu

Trong nc

Ngun:
AEKT & Various

Tiu th c ph ca Indonesia trong nhng nm gn y t mc tng ng k. T nm


1998 n 2003, lng tiu th trong nc ca nc ny tng hn 50.000 tn, tng
ng vi khong 10%. Mc tng c duy tr lin tc trong sut giai on ny. Tuy
nhin, cho n 2003, tiu th trong nc cng mi t khong 133 nghn tn, chim
27,7% tng sn lng (Benny, 2003).
Mc d mc tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi trn phm vi ton cu t thay i trong
nhng nm qua, dao ng trong khong 4,5-4,7 kg/ngi/nm v mc tiu th thp cc
nc xut khu c ph, ch khong 1 kg/ngi/nm nhng nhu cu th gii trong thi
gian ti chc chn s tng do xu hng tng nhanh cc th trng mi ni v chnh sch
khuyn khch tiu dng ni a c ph cc nc xut khu chnh. Do , tiu th c ph
ca cc nc ang pht trin d bo s tng bnh qun 2,5%/nm, a t trng ca cc
nc ang pht trin trong tng mc tiu th c ph ton cu ln 30% trong nm 2010.
Nin v 2005/06, cu v c ph th gii d kin s vt cung khong 480.000 tn.
Tiu th c ph th gii nin v ti s tng mnh v 2 l do: Th nht, M ti gia nhp
ICO vo thng 10/04 to thm c hi cho tiu th c ph ton cu v M l th trng tiu
th ln nht th gii. Th hai, din n c ph quc t c t chc ti Singapore nhm
tm kim nhng c hi mi, khi phc ngnh c ph v thit lp mt mng li cho
nhng ngi sn xut, kinh doanh v tiu th c ph ton cu. Cc nc sn xut coi ci
thin cht lng l cha kho khi phc gi c ph th gii. Ngoi ra, thu nhp v dn
s tng ln cc nc ang pht trin l nhng yu t dn n mc tng tiu th cao ca
cc nc thuc khu vc ny. Tuy nhin, v c cu sn phm tiu th, cc nc ang pht
trin vn tp trung cc sn phm c mc gi v cht lng thp.

17

Cc loi c ph chnh c tiu th trn th gii hin nay: Cc th trng ng u, ng


Nam v Bc Phi ngy cng tng tiu th c ph ho tan c pha ch t c ph cht
lng thp Robusta. Cc loi c ph 3 trong 1 (ng, bt sa v c ph ho tan) ang rt
c a chuc cc nc ng Nam . Hin nay, c ph Robusta c dng ph bin
hn pha ch vi c ph Arabica do lng cung c ph Robusta tng mnh trong hn
mt thp k qua v cng ngh ch bin c ph c ci tin
Hnh 5. Bin ng c ph th gii nm 2004
Trong thi gian ti, cn bng cung
cu c ph c th s c ci thin
cht t. c bit l trong nm 2005
khi tnh hnh thi tit din bin bt
li ti hai nc sn xut c ph ln
nht, Brazil v Vit Nam. Nm 2004,
u nm 2005, gi c ph trn th
trng th gii tng lin tc. Nm
2004 cng l nm u tin th trng
th gii c du hiu thot khi cuc
khng hong ko di hn 4 nm.

Bin ng gi c ph th gi i n m 2004 (USD/tn)

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
T1

T2

T3

T4

T5

Arabica

T6

T7

T8

T9 T10 T11 T12

Robusta

Tng ngun cung c ph ca cc


Ngun: R euters
nc sn xut trong v 2004 - 2005
c t 8.592.000 tn, tng 1% so
vi v 2003 - 2004 nh sn lng tng. Nhng xut khu li gim 2% xung 5.400.000
tn do nhu cu tiu th ti cc nc sn xut ang tng ln. Xut khu c ph ca Braxin
d kin gim 84.000 tn xung cn 1416.000 tn.
ICO cng d bo sn lng c ph th gii nin v 2005 - 2006 t 6.360.000-6.480.000
tn, gim khong 7% so vi v trc. Khi lng c ph xut khu ca Braxin tip tc
gim st do sn lng d kin gim mnh xung 1.842.000-1.980.000 tn khi cy c ph
bc vo giai on suy gim c tnh chu k v nng nng xut hin trong thng 7 v
thng 8. Sn lng c ph ca Vit Nam cng gim khong 20% xung 720.000 tn, sn
lng ca Indonesia v Colombia n nh nhng xut khu gim do tiu th ni a tng.
Trc tnh hnh cu c xu hng tng v cung c xu hng gim, ngi dn trng c ph
li c thm c hi tng gi tr gia tng cho sn phm ca mnh. Tuy nhin, vic ph thuc
vo th trng th gii nh vy t ra khng bn vng v tng lm nhiu nc tht bi.
Bi hc n by gi vn cn gi tr v buc ngnh c ph phi tm nhiu con ng
khc nhau tng gi tr gia tng. Mt trong nhng bin php l pht trin tiu th ni
tiu. Bin php ny c bit ng vi Vit Nam, mt quc gia nm trong nhm cc nc
sn xut c ph ln nhng tiu th trong nc ch chim trung bnh 5% tng sn lng,
duy tr mc 500.000 bao/nm trong 3 nm gn y (USDA, 2003).
18

Phn tip theo ca bi vit ny s cp n nhng nt chnh trong tiu th c ph Vit


Nam thng qua tng kt cc ti liu, bo co trc y.

II. NHNG NT CHNH V TNH HNH TIU TH C PH VIT NAM


1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua VHLSS nm 2002
Theo s liu iu tra VLSS 2002, khng c nhiu ngi dn Vit Nam tiu th c ph
trong h gia nh. Trong ngy thng, c khong 19,2% tiu th c ph, trong 47%
tiu th c ph ung lin v 53% tiu th c ph bt. Tuy nhin, trong dp l tt, s lng
ngi tiu th c ph trong h gia nh tng ln, khong 23% s h.
Trung bnh nm 2002, ngi Vit Nam tiu th khong 1,25 kg c ph/nm, bao gm c
ph tiu th trong ngy thng (c ph ung lin v c ph bt) v c ph ung trong dp
l tt. Tuy nhin, trong iu tra ny, ch c s liu v gi tr ca c ph ung lin. Gi tr
tiu th c ph trung bnh ca ngi dn Vit Nam nm 2002 l khong 9.130
/ngi/nm.
1.1. Khc bit gia nng thn v thnh th
Tiu th ni a c ph c s khc bit ln gia thnh th v nng thn c v lng v gi
tr. Lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi ca thnh th nm 2002 (2,4kg) cao gp 2,72 ln
tiu th ca nng thn (0,89 kg). Trong khi , gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi ca
thnh th t 20.280 ng, cao gp 3,5 ln mc ca nng thn.
Hnh 6 : Lng (kg/ngi) v gi tr (1000/ngi) tiu th c ph bnh qun u
ngi nng thn v thnh th nm 2002
Lng
Gi tr

3.0
2.5

25
20

2.0

15

1.5
10

1.0

0.5

0.0
Thnh th

Nng thn

Trung bnh

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

B s liu VHLSS cng phn chia tiu th c ph thnh hai loi c ph bt v c ph


ung lin.

19

Tnh hnh tiu th ca c hai loi c ph bt v c ph ung cng c s khc bit ln gia
thnh th v nng thn. Khu vc thnh th tiu th c ph ung lin nhiu gp 2,74 ln
khu vc nng thn, trong khi , chnh lch v gi tr tiu th loi c ph ny l gn 5 ln
gia hai khu vc. Gi tr tiu th tiu th c ph bt khu vc thnh th ln gp 2,65 ln
khu vc nng thn (7,8 v 2,9 nghn /ngi/nm).
Hnh 7: Lng tiu th c ph bt v ung lin 2002 (kg/ngi/nm)

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

S khc bit ln v gi tr tiu th c th do gi khu vc thnh th cao hn khu vc


nng thn nh mc sng cao hn. Nm 2002, tng chi tiu khu vc thnh th khong 27
triu ng trong khi tng chi tiu khu vc nng thn ch c khong 12 triu ng.
Ngoi ra, chnh lch v gi tr cng c th do cht lng c ph bn ti th trng thnh
th cao hn th trng nng thn. Tuy nhin, cha c mt nghin cu no khng nh r
nhn nh ny.
1.2. Khc bit gia cc nhm thu nhp
Cc h gia nh c chia lm 5 nhm da trn thu nhp ca h, mi nhm chim 20%
tng s h, t nhm ngho nht (quintile 1) n nhm giu nht (quintile 5).
Tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi tng dn t nhm c thu nhp thp nht n nhm
c thu nhp cao nht. Trong , lng tiu th c ph ca nhm 5 cao hn nhm 1 n
gn 18 ln, tuy nhin, gi tr tiu th ch chnh lch khong gn 9 ln. Nh vy, v m t
thng k, tiu th c ph c xu hng thay i theo thu nhp.

20

Hnh 8: Tiu th c ph u ngi theo nhm thu nhp nm 2002


Lng (gr/ngi)

30

3.0

Gi tr (1000/ngi)

25

2.5

20

2.0

15

1.5

10

1.0

0.5

0
2

Ngho nht

0.0
Giu nht

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph bt v ung lin cng din bin theo xu hng trn, tuy nhin,
lng c ph bt tiu th thp hn nhiu so vi lng c ph ung lin. nhm thu nhp
cao nht, lng c ph ung lin c tiu th nhiu gp 9,4 ln lng c ph bt. Trong
khi , nhm ngho nht, mc chnh lch ny l 9,8 ln.
Hnh 9: Lng c ph bt v ung lin theo nhm thu nhp (kg/ngi/nm)
C ph ung lin

3.00

0.30

C ph bt

2.50

0.25

2.00

0.20

1.50

0.15

1.00

0.10

0.50

0.05

0.00

Ngho
nht

0.00
Giu
nht

Trung
bnh

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS (Trn Qunh Chi)


1.3. Khc bit gia cc vng
Hu ht cc khu vc Vit Nam u tiu th c ph, nhng rt khc bit. Nam Trung B,
ng bng Sng Cu Long v Duyn hi Nam Trung B l ba khu vc tiu th c ph
nhiu nht trong c nc. Vng Ty Bc, ng Bc v ng bng Sng Hng tiu th
rt t c ph, thm ch khu vc Ty Bc hu nh khng tiu th vi mc tiu th bnh
qun u ngi ch c 0,03 kg/nm. Lng tiu th c ph khu vc Ty Nguyn nhiu
th 4 trn c nc nhng vn mc thp so vi 3 khu vc ng u.
21

Gi tr tiu th ca cc khu vc din bin khng hon ton ging nh lng tiu th. c
bit l khu vc Duyn hi Nam Trung B v Ty Nguyn. khu vc Duyn hi Nam
Trung B, mc d lng tiu th u ngi rt cao (1,5kg/ngi/nm) nhng gi tr tiu
th ch t 6230 /ngi/nm. Trong khi khu vc Ty Nguyn, cc con s ny ln
lt l 0,28 kg v 4150. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gii thch hin tng ny l khu
vc Ty Nguyn ch yu tiu th cc loi c ph bt, c cht lng cao, vi lng c ph
bt tiu th khu vc ny cao th 3 trong ton quc (0,12 kg/ngi/nm) so vi mc
0,08kg ca vng Duyn hi Nam Trung B.
Hnh 10: Tiu th c ph u ngi theo vng ca Vit Nam nm 2002
Lng
Gi tr

3.0

30

2.5

25

2.0

20

1.5

15

1.0

10
5

0.5

0.0
BSH

Ty
BSCL
ng Ty Bc Duyn
Nam
hi BTB Duyn
Bc
hi NTB Nguyn Trung B

TB

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS (Trn Qunh Chi)


2. Tiu th c ph Vit Nam - nhn nh t cc ngun thng tin khc
Theo nhn nh ca nhiu chuyn gia, tiu th ni a ca c ph Vit nam cn qu t.
Trong khi mi ngi Bc u ung 10 kg c ph nhn mi nm, Ty u l 5-6 kg th
ngi Vit Nam mi tiu th khong 500 gr6.
Vit Nam vn l nc sn xut c ph ch ng sau Brazil v l nc ng u v sn
xut c ph vi. Theo s liu t Vicofa, tc tng trng bnh qun din tch t trng
c ph t khong 15% trong nhng nm 90, v ti cui th k 20 c nc c khong
na triu hecta c ph. Hin nay hu ht c ph nhn c sn xut ra l phc v xut
khu. Sn lng xut khu ca Vit Nam t 600.000-700.000 tn c ph nhn mi nm.
Hai v c ph 2000-2001 v 2003-2004, Vit Nam xut khu trn 800.000 tn c ph.
Cng nh nhiu ngnh sn xut khc, c bit l thy sn v nng sn, cc doanh nghip
kinh doanh ch bin c ph "chung" u t xut khu hn l tiu th th trng ni
a.

www.vnexpress.net, 10/2005

22

Mt s nghin cu gn y c Ngn hng th gii (WB) a ra cho thy tim nng th


trng c ph ni a ca Vit Nam c th tiu th ti 70.000 tn/nm. Ngha l vi sn
lng c ph hng nm thu hoch c 700.000 - 800.000 tn th lng c ph tiu th
ni a ca Vit Nam mc xp x 10%. Tuy nhin, theo s liu thng k ca cuc iu
tra mc sng dn c trn th nu mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi c ph ca Vit
Nam t 1,25 kg/ngi/nm th nm 2002, mc tng tiu th c nc phi t khong
95,000 tn. Trong khi theo Hip hi C ph th gii, tiu dng ni a ca c ph Vit
Nam hin ch t khong 5%, thp nht trong s cc nc sn xut c ph. Mc chnh
lch ny cng "khp khing" nu so vi sn lng tiu dng c ph ni a ca cc nc
thnh vin Hip hi C ph th gii l 25,16%. iu ny cho thy, c rt nhiu ngun
thng tin nh gi v mc tiu th u ngi khc nhau v cho nhng s liu rt khc
bit. chnh l mt trong nhng l do khin cho nhm nghin cu ca Vin Chnh sch
v Chin lc PTNN-NT tin hnh nghin cu ny.
Trc tnh hnh mc tiu th ni a thp nh trn, mt s hng sn xut trong nc v
lin doanh c ph Vit Nam lin tc a ra nhng chin lc kinh doanh khc nhau
nhm thu ht khch hng.
Theo kt qu iu tra ca Cng ty C ph Trung Nguyn th Trung Nguyn, Nestcafe v
Vinacafe l 3 hng sn xut bn c ph nhiu nht v c a chung nht Vit Nam
hin nay.
Hnh 11: Lng c ph tiu th theo cc hng khc nhau (%)
1 0 0
8 0
6 0
4 0
2 0
0

L o i A

T . N g u y n
B u n

L o i B

V in a c a p h e N e s tc a f e
T hM u Tt r a n g

C a fe

L o n g

K h c

Ngun: iu tra ca cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn, 2003


Cc hng c ph ny p dng nhiu chin lc kinh doanh c ph khc nhau.

23

ang tn dng mi phng tin thng tin tm kim i tc xut khu, Gim c doanh
nghip c ph Thu H ti Pleiku Ng Tn Gic cho bit 2/3 trong s hn 300.000 tn c
ph bt hng nm doanh nghip ny sn xut c dnh cho xut khu. "Chng ti c
gng pht trin th trng ni a nhng cnh tranh ht sc kh khn v doanh thu rt
thp so vi gi tr kim ngch xut khu". "m ng" v th trng pha Nam v TP
HCM, nhn hiu c ph Thu H 3 ln "tn cng", nhng tht bi vn hon tht bi.
"Hin Thu H ang tip cn trc tip ngi tiu dng bng cch m nhng tim phc v
ung c ph, nhng hiu qu khng cao lm".
M rng knh tip th v tiu th ni a bng cch phc v nhu cu thng thc c ph
ha tan hay pha sn cng ang l cch m mt s cng ty c ph ang la chn. Ngoi
"chui" qun c ph Trung Nguyn, mt lot nhn hiu khc nh Highland, Phc Ban
M, c ph Bun M Thut... ln lt m cc ca hiu c ph ti cc th ln nh TP
HCM, Cn Th, Quy Nhn... Song hiu qu th, "mc ch l qung b v gii thiu
sn phm ch khng t nng vn doanh thu", gim c mt cng ty ch bin c ph
ti Bun M Thut nhn nh.
Theo phn tch ca gii kinh doanh c ph ch bin, mt tr ngi khc khin cho c ph
Vit Nam kh tiu th ni a l do xu hng ung c ph "cng nghip" trong gii tr
ngy cng tng p ng nhu cu nhanh trong nhp sng hin i. "C ph ha tan tr
thnh xu hng tiu dng ch o hin nay, cng a dng hng v v p ng mi nhu
cu cng hp dn", i din Cng ty Nestcafe cho bit.
Th phn c ph ho tan hin nay chia cho 2 hng ln: Vinacafe: 50,4%, Nescaf: 33,2%
v cc nhn hiu khc 16,4%. Vinacafe lun theo st khu hiu tn trng v cao gi
tr truyn thng, mang nhng g tinh tu nht ca thin nhin n vi ngi tiu dng.
Hin nay Vinacafe chun b u t mt dy chuyn mi, cng sut khong 3200 tn c
ph ho tan/nm, gp 4 ln cng sut hin nay. Theo ng Bi Xun Thoa, Gim c
Cng ty C phn C ph Bin Ho (Vinacafe) Th trng c ph Vit Nam ang gia
tng cnh tranh quyt lit, vi th phn ng k v kinh nghim hn 30 nm, vn tiu
dng ni a thc s khng ng ngi vi Vinacafe. Chng ti s tng tng cu ni a
bng nhng phn khc mi v c v ngi tiu dng.
Trung Nguyn - doanh nghip lm ma lm gi trn th trng c ph phin vi thng
hiu Trung Nguyn nhiu nm qua lm nng th trng c ph ho tan bng sn phm
G7 vi tng mc u t cho mt dy chuyn sn xut c ph ho tan ln ti 10 triu
USD, cng sut 200 tn/nm. ng L Nguyn V, tng gim c cng ty Trung Nguyn
cho bit: Trung Nguyn phi dn tng lc cho cuc cnh tranh, nh G7 chim
mt th phn ni a ng k v c ph ho tan. Nhng ln hn ci li kinh t v c ph
ho tan Trung Nguyn ch yu xut khu, l qua G7 gp phn ng k vo phong
tro ngi Vit dng hng Vit, nng cao thc doanh nghip tr dm ng u vi cc
tp on quc t ngay trn sn nh.

24

Song, i vi nhiu doanh nghip t nhn khc, vic u t sn xut c ph ha tan li


i hi ngun vn ln v chi ph chuyn giao cng ngh, tr thnh mt ci kh "b" ly
doanh nghip va v nh. Kt qu, doanh nghip vn tp trung xut khu c ph nhn
hoc bt m b qua th trng ni a.
Hp 1

Ung c ph - la chn tng lai ca ngi Vit Nam


"Tiu th sn phm do mnh lm ra, cng l mt nt p vn ho.
Trc y, chng ta vn ngh gin n rng, c ph lm ra l
xut khu. C l ngh ch xut pht t mt np ngh c t
lu l ngi Vit quen ung tr. Tr tr thnh ung truyn
thng...
Chng ta vn c th cn lm phong ph thm vn ho m thc ca
nhn dn ta. cng l mt yu cu ca hi nhp Quc t!" i
vi nc ta, thi quen dng c ph c hng liu vn cha nhiu,
sn xut v bn loi c ph ny ch yu vn l c ph Trung
Nguyn. ng on Triu Nhn cho rng: "C l y mnh tiu
th c ph ni a chng ta cng cn pht trin c ph c hng
liu v n tng thm ngi tiu th, lm mnh m thm hnh nh c
ph ca ta v m rng c s ngi tiu dng ca ta nh cc qun
c ph, ca hng n". Cn di gc kinh t, sau khi phn tch
din bin th trng c ph th gii hn na nm qua, T chc C
ph Quc t (ICO) mi y c nhn nh kh th v: s pht
trin tiu th c ph ni a cc nc xut khu c ph tr
thnh mt trong nhng u tin trong nghin cu s cn bng cung
cu ca th trng c ph. V gc sc kho, th gii c n
11 cuc hi tho v ch c ph v sc kho, m gn y nht,
t chc c ph quc t ch tr tin hnh ti London (Anh) ngy
19.5.2001, cc nh khoa hc danh ting ca nhiu nc trnh
mt cng trnh nghin cu v c ph v sc kho, h kt lun: c
ph l mt loi ung kch thch, t nhin v lnh. Ti li ngh
nh mt cu cch ngn ca mt nh trit hc ngi Thu S th
k 14: "Tt c l thuc c/ Chng c g l khng c c/ Ch c
liu lng/L c th khin cho mi ci khng thnh thuc c".

25

CHNG III.
XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI
HAI THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH

I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH
Nh trnh by phn phng php nghin cu, nghin cu ny tin hnh iu tra
700 h ti hai thnh ph ln H Ni v Thnh ph HCM. Ti H Ni, 6 qun c chn
bao gm: Hon Kim, Hai B Trng, Ba nh, Hong Mai, Cu Giy, Thanh Xun. Ti
TP HCM, cc qun c chn l: qun 1, qun 3, qun 6, qun 11, qun Tn Ph, qun
G Vp, qun Bnh Thnh.
1. c im h gia nh
1.1 tui
Phng vn c tin hnh ch yu l vi nhng ngi chu trch nhim ni tr trong gia
nh. Trung bnh, mi h iu tra c khong 4 ngi. Kt qu iu tra cho thy, tui
trung bnh tiu th c ph thnh ph H Ni khong 36,3. Ti thnh ph H Ch Minh,
tui trung bnh ca ngi tiu th c ph c iu tra l 34,9.
Hnh 12: % s ngi phn theo gii v h - HN

Hnh 13 : % s ngi phn theo gii v h - HCM

Hnh 12 v 13 cho thy tui lao ng ca hai thnh ph chnh lch kh nhiu gia 3
loi h, c bit l nhm h giu vi s lng lao ng nam HN nhiu hn hn lao
ng n trong khi TP HCM s lng ny l tng ng nh nhau.
1.2 Trnh gio dc
Trong s cc h c iu tra, trnh gio dc H Ni cao hn i cht so vi thnh
ph HCM. Ti H Ni, trnh gio dc trung bnh cc qun tng i cao. Trnh
cp 3 cao nht (370 ngi), tip l trnh i hc (313). Ti TP H Ch Minh, trnh
cp 3 cng cao nht (464), tip l cp 2 (319). So vi H Ni, s ngi c trnh
i hc TP H Ch Minh thp hn (180).
26

Hnh 14 : Trnh gio dc cc h iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM (s ngi)


H Ni

500

TP HCM

400
300
200
100
0
M
ch

Cp I

Cp II Cp III

Hc
ngh

i
hc

Cao
hc

TS

1.3 Vic lm
S ngi c iu tra c ngh nghip a dng bao gm: Cn b nh nc, ngi lm
kinh doanh nh, cng nhn, doanh nghip, sinh vin, hc sinh, ni tr, v hu, ngi tn
tt, tht nghip,.Trong cc h iu tra ti H Ni, s ngi ngh hu l ch yu, chim
19,8%, tip theo l ngi lm kinh doanh, cn b cng chc, hc sinh, bun bn nh,
sinh vin, ln lt chim t l 16,4%, 13,8%, 13,7%, 11,6%, 8%. Cn li l cc ngh
nghip khc. Ti TP HCM, s h l kinh doanh chim a s 26,3%, tip l hc sinh
15,7%, cng nhn 14,6%, ni tr 9,7%, bun bn nh 9,1%. Ngi v hu v sinh vin
cng chim khong 6,5%, cn li l cc ngh nghip khc.
Hnh 15: Ngh nghip ca cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM (s ngi)
HN

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

HCM

Cn b
NN

Cng
nhn

Sinh
vin

Ni tr

Tn tt

Tht
nghip

1.4 Thu nhp


27

Theo nh gi ca ngi phng vn, s lng h giu, ngho v trung bnh khng phn
b u trong mu. Trong khi ch c 18% h giu v 11% h ngho th c ti 71% h thu
nhp trung bnh.
Hnh 16: Phn loi theo nhm thu nhp (%)

Theo kt qu iu tra, mc thu nhp trung bnh ca cc h ti H Ni l khong 4,3


triu/thng/h, ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, thu nhp trung bnh cao hn, khong 5,1
triu/thng/h. Theo nhm h, ti H Ni, nhm h giu c thu nhp trung bnh 8,7
triu/thng/h, cao hn so vi thu nhp ca nhm h giu ti TP HCM (7,5
triu/thng/h). Con s ny ca nhm h trung bnh ti H Ni l khong 3,8 triu, ti TP
HCM khong 4,7 triu. Nhm h ngho c mc thu nhp rt thp, khong 2,1
triu/thng/h ti H Ni v 2,9 triu/thng/h ti TP HCM.
Hnh 17: Thu nhp trung bnh mt thng ca h iu tra (1000/ngi/thng)

5200
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
3800
H Ni

TP HCM

28

Hnh 18: Thu nhp trung bnh theo nhm h (1000/ngi/thng)


H Ni

10000

TP HCM

8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh


2.1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca cc h iu tra.
Nm 2004, tng lng c ph mua c tnh theo u ngi ca cc h iu tra ti H
Ni l 752 gram/ngi/nm, ca cc h iu tra ti TP HCM l 1651,5 gram/ngi/nm.
Gi tr c ph c tnh theo u ngi ca H Ni khong 48 nghn/ngi/nm, ca TP
HCM cao gp 3 ln, khong 121 nghn/ngi/nm.
Hnh 19: Tiu th c ph tnh theo u ngi trong gia nh nm 2004 tnh theo
lng v gi tr
Lng (gr)

1800
1600

Gi tr (1000)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
H Ni

TP HCM

Ti H Ni, cc qun tiu th chnh ln lt l Qun Ba nh (1150 gr/ngi/nm), Cu


giy (828 gr) v Hong Mai (837 gr). Ti Thnh ph HCM, Qun Tn Ph, Qun 3 v
Qun 1 l nhng qun tiu th nhiu c ph trong gia nh vi s lng ln lt l 2230,
2260 v 1772 gr/ngi/nm).
So vi nm 2002, lng tiu th c ph u ngi c hai thnh ph nm 2004 u tng,
nhng tc tng H Ni nhanh hn TP H Ch Minh. Lng tiu th c ph u

29

ngi trong gia nh ca TP H Ch Minh tng t 1305 gr/ngi nm 2002 ln 1651


gr/ngi nm 2004, tng ng vi 21%. Ti H Ni, tc tng t nm 2002 n
2004 t 25% (t 566 n 752 gr/ngi/nm).
Hnh 20: So snh tng lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh 2002-2004.(gr/ngi/nm)
H Ni
TP HCM

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002

2004

Phn theo loi h, cc h iu tra H Ni c lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi vi


nhm h ngho l 466 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h trung bnh l 750 gram/ngi/nm, v
nhm h giu l 942 gram/ngi/nm. H Ni, nhm h giu vn c lng tiu th
bnh qun u ngi nhiu hn hn, gp i so vi nhm h ngho. Ti TP HCM, lng
mua bnh qun ca nhm h ngho l 1984 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h trung bnh l 1332
gram/ngi/nm, nhm h giu l 2210 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h giu c lng tiu
th bnh qun u ngi cao nht v khc vi H Ni, nhm h c lng tiu th bnh
qun thp nht li l nhm h trung bnh ch khng phi nhm h ngho.
Hinh 21: So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h H
Ni (gr/ngi/nm)

Hnh 22: So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h


HCM (gr/ngi/nm)
2004

2004

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2002

2500

2002

2000
1500

Trong s ba nhm h trn, nhm h c

1000
500
0

Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

Ti c hai thnh ph ny, nhm giu l nhm c thay i lng tiu th c ph ln nht.
Ti H Ni, nm 2004 nhm giu v nhm trung bnh u c mc tiu th c ph nhiu

30

hn 26% so vi nm 2002, trong khi , nhm ngho ch tng mc tiu th 14% so vi


nm 2002. Ti TP HCM, lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh nm 2004 ca nhm ngi
c thu nhp cao tng ti 32% so vi nm 2002; trong khi , nhm thu nhp trung bnh
v ngho ch tiu th tng 13 v 19% so vi 2002. Qua hnh 21-22, c th thy lng tiu
th c ph ti H Ni c xu hng tng theo thu nhp trong khi TP HCM, chng ta
khng thy xu hng ny. Tng quan gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph ca hai
thnh ph ny s c phn tch k hn phn sau.
Tiu th c ph nm 2004 tng so vi nm 2002 do mt s nguyn nhn sau. Phn ln
cc h H Ni u cho rng lng c ph tiu th ngy cng tng do nhn thc ca h
tt hn v dinh dng ca c ph v tc dng i vi sc kho, c bit l cc bnh tim
mch. Nhiu ngi cng tha nhn h c cho/biu nhiu c ph hn nn tiu th nhiu
hn. Ti TP H Ch Minh, phn ln cc h cho rng cht lng c ph ngy cng tt hn
v nhn thc tt hn v tc dng i vi sc kho l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin
h ngy cng tng lng tiu th c ph.
Trong tng mc tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca h, nhm nghin cu phn chia ra
thnh c ph m h gia nh mua v lng c ph h c cho/tng. Thng tin v tnh
hnh h mua c ph cho/tng ngi khc cng c thu thp nhng ch c ngha
tham kho v nu iu tra c tin hnh ti tt c cc h th v nguyn tc, lng c ph
c cho/tng s bng lng c ph m h mua cho/tng ngi khc.
2.1.1. Tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh.

Tn sut mua c ph
Hnh 23: T l h mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004 (%)
H Ni

80

TP HCM

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Khng
bao gi

Vi ln/nm

Vi ln/thng

Vi ln/tun

V tn sut tiu dng, H Ni, cc h ch yu mua c ph vi ln trong nm. S h


khng bao gi ung c ph chim 19,9%, s h mua c ph vi ln trong 1 nm chim
70,1%, s ngi mua vi ln trong 1 thng chim 9,4%, s ngi mua thng xuyn vi

31

ln trong mt tun chim t l rt t 0,6%. Ti TP H Ch Minh, tiu th c ph c khc


bit so vi H Ni. S h khng bao gi mua c ph chim 14,4%. S h mua vi ln
trong 1 nm chim 32,8%. S h mua c ph nhiu ln trong thng chim 40,7%. S h
mua thng xuyn vi ln trong tun chim 12,2%. Nh vy, so vi H Ni, cc h iu
tra TP HCM c mc tiu dng c ph vi ln trong thng cao gp hn 4 ln. mc
dng vi ln trong mt tun, cc h TP HCM cng chim t l cao hn, gp hn 10 ln
so vi H Ni.
Ti H Ni, tn sut mua c ph dng khc nhau theo cc qun. mc khng bao
gi mua c ph, tn sut ln nht l qun Ba nh, tip l Hon Kim, Hai B
Trng, Cu Giy v Thanh Xun. Qun Hong Mai c tn sut nh nht (4 h). Tiu th
c ph tp trung ch yu mc vi ln trong nm, kh ng u nhau cc qun,
trong nhiu nht l qun Thanh Xun (54). mc vi ln trong thng, tn sut tiu
th c ph t, nhiu nht l qun Ba nh (14). Cn tiu th vi ln trong tun th hu
nh rt t, khng ng k. Tiu th c ph c th ti cc qun ca TP H Ch Minh cng
khc so vi H Ni. Cc h TP HCM tiu dng c ph kh thng xuyn v ng u
cc mc . mc khng bao gi dng, qun G Vp c tn sut cao nht (25), tip
l cc qun 3, qun 1,Qun Bnh Thnh c tn sut nh nht. Tiu dng c ph TP
H Ch Minh tp trung vo 2 mc nhiu ln trong nm v nhiu ln trong thng. i
vi mc nhiu ln trong nm, qun Bnh Thnh c tn sut tiu dng c ph ln nht
(45), tip theo l cc qun G Vp, qun 3, qun Tn Ph, qun 1. Cn mc thng
xuyn hn, nhiu ln trong thng, qun 11 c tn sut cao nht (30), cc qun khc tng
i ng u nhau mc tn sut t 17-24. qun 1 v qun Tn Ph, tn sut tiu dng
c ph nhiu nht mc nhiu ln trong tun.
So vi nm 2002, tn sut mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh khng thay i nhiu.
H Ni, % s h mua c ph vi ln/thng v vi ln/nm c tng t 7,9% v 0,28% nm
2002 n 9,4% v 0,57% nm 2004. S h khng bao gi tiu th cng ch gim i cht
t ti HN, khong 2,57% trong giai on trn. Ti TP HCM, % s h khng bao gi mua
v mua vi ln/nm u gim, ln lt khong 1,4% v 4% t nm 2002 n 2004.

Lng mua c ph

Lng c ph mua trung bnh 1 ngi/nm ti H Ni khong 551 gram, gi tr khong


34 nghn/ngi/nm. Lng c ph mua trung bnh 1 ngi/nm ti TP HCM khong
1461 gram, gi tr khong 107 nghn/ngi/nm.

Hnh 24: Tng lng mua c ph u ngi cho tiu th trong gia nh nm 2004

32

Lng mua u ngi (gr)


1600

Gi tr mua u ngi (1000)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
TP HCM

H Ni

H Ni, lng mua c ph trung bnh ca nhm h giu l 673 gram/ngi/nm, ca


nhm h trung bnh l 552 gram/ngi/nm v nhm h ngho l 341 gram/ngi/nm.
Nhm h giu vn tiu th nhiu nht nhng chnh lch khng nhiu so vi nhm h
trung bnh v nhm h ngho. Ti TP HCM, lng mua bnh qun u ngi ca tng
nhm h ln lt l, h giu khong 2210 gram/ngi/nm, h trung bnh l 1332
gram/ngi/nm v h ngho l 1948 gram/ngi/nm. H giu vn l nhm mua nhiu
nht v c bit nhm h ngho li c lng mua kh cao, hn hn nhm trung bnh.
Hnh 25: Lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004 (gr/ngi/nm)
H Ni
TP HCM

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

Nh thy trn, tn sut mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh c chia lm 4 loi: khng
bao gi, mua vi ln/nm, vi ln/thng v vi ln/tun.
-

Mua c ph vi ln/nm

Nm 2004, hu ht cc h H Ni ch mua c ph vi ln/nm, vi tng lng khong


566 gr/ngi/nm, cao hn i cht so vi TP H Ch Minh (481 gr/ngi/nm). Mc d

33

vy, gi tr mua vi ln mt nm cc h ny khng khc nhau nhiu gia HN v HCM,


ln lt l 35000 v 33000 /ngi/nm.
Theo tng qun ti H Ni, lng c ph mua trung bnh mt ngi mt nm khng
chnh lch nhau nhiu, cao nht qun Hong Mai l 689gram, thp nht Thanh Xun
411 gram. Gi tr mua trung bnh mt ngi mt nm cao nht l qun Hai B Trng v
qun Cu Giy (39 nghn/ngi/nm), thp nht l qun Thanh Xun (27
nghn/ngi/nm).
Hnh 26: Lng c ph mua vi ln/nm ti hai TP nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr)
Gi tr mua u ngi (1000)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
H Ni

TP HCM

Lng c ph mua cng gim dn t h c thu nhp cao n h c thu nhp thp c hai
thnh ph (603 v 493 gr/ngi/nm HN v 497 v 423 gr/ngi/nm TP H Ch
Minh).
-

Mua c ph nhiu ln thng/tun

Lng c ph ca cc h mua nhiu ln trong thng hoc tun khc bit nhiu gia hai
thnh ph. Lng c ph cc h ny mua TP H Ch Minh nhiu gp 1,45 ln so vi
TP H Ni (2347 v 1617 gr/ngi/nm).
Hnh 27: Lng c ph mua vi ln/thng hoc tun nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr)

2500

Gi tr mua u ngi (1000)

2000
1500
1000
500
0
H Ni

TP HCM

34

Vic mua c ph theo loi h khc nhau H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Ti H Ni, lng


tiu th c ph ca c 3 nhm h: giu, trung bnh, ngho kh ng u, ln lt tng
ng mc 1152, 1850, 1204 gram/ngi/nm, trong nhm h trung bnh tiu th
nhiu hn 2 nhm kia. Ti TP H Ch Minh, mc tiu th trung bnh ca 3 nhm h kh
cao, khong 2634 gram/ngi/nm. Tiu th ca 3 nhm h ln lt l giu 2951, trung
bnh 1857 gram/ngi/nm.

Mc ch mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004


V mc ch mua c ph, ti H Ni, khong 68% mua c ph cho tiu th hng ngy,
15,5% cho cc dp l Tt, khong 5% lm qu, cn li l cho cc s kin khc. Cn
mc ch mua c ph ti TP HCM v c bn khc vi H Ni. C ph ch yu c mua
tip khch, chim khong 78%. Mua c ph lm qu l 8% v khong 14% cho cc
s kin khc.
Hnh 28: Mc ch tiu dng c ph H Ni
200
150
100
50
0
Tiu th hng
ngy

Lm qu

Khc

Dp l tt

Hnh 29: Mc ch mua c ph ti TP HCM


100
80
60
40
20
0
Tip khch

Lm qu

khc

35

Ti H Ni, cc h tiu dng c ph hng ngy chim 68%, tiu dng trong dp l tt
chim 15%, cn li l mua trong cc dp khc. Ti thnh ph HCM, ngc li so vi H
Ni, s h tr li khng tiu dng c ph theo ma ln, chim 84%, cn h tr li c rt
t, khong 16%. Nh vy, so vi H Ni, ngi tiu dng TP HCM c thi quen tiu
dng c ph thng xuyn hn, khng phn bit theo ma.

Cc loi c ph chnh
Theo kt qu iu tra, cc loi c ph chnh c cc h H Ni v TP HCM tiu dng
nhiu trong nm gm: c ph ha tan sa, c ph ha tan en, c ph bt, c ph bt hn
hp. Ti H Ni, c ph ha tan sa c tiu dng nhiu nht, chim 44,1% s h iu
tra, tip l c ph bt hn hp, chim 32,4%. Ti TP HCM, hai loi c ph ho tan sa
v ho tan en c tiu dng nhiu, ln lt chim 24,7% v 20,2%.
V nhn hiu c ph, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM cho bit v cc nhn
hiu c ph ch yu m h mua bao gm: Trung Nguyn, Highlands, Vinacafe, Nescafe,
Nestle v cc nhn hiu khc. Trong , c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn c tiu dng
nhiu nht, chim khong 45% H Ni v khong 59% TP H Ch Minh.

Thi im tiu th chnh


V tiu th c ph theo ma, H Ni, ma tiu dng c ph chnh l vo cc dp l tt
(62%) v ma ng (31%). Ti TP HCM, dp l Tt l thi im tiu dng c ph nhiu
nht, chim 84,2%, cc thi im khc nh ma kh, ma ma, dp khc chim khng
ng k, ln lt l 7%, 3,5% v 5,3%.
2.1.2. Tnh hnh c ph c cho/tng nm 2004
Thng k t s liu iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM cho thy, lng c ph c tng trn
tng lng tiu th nm 2004 ca H Ni l 27%, TP HCM thp hn, khong 12%.
Hnh 30: T l c ph c tng trn tng tiu th c ph nm 2004 (%)

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
H Ni

TP HCM

36

Ti H Ni, lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng l 201 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr


khong 14 nghn/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng t hn
mt cht, khong 191 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr tng ng vi H Ni, 14
nghn/ngi/nm.
Hnh 31: Tnh hnh c ph c cho tng nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr)
Gi tr mua u ngi 1000)

250
200
150
100
50
0
H Ni

TP HCM

Phn theo nhm h, ti H Ni, nhm h giu c lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng
l 269 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh v nhm h ngho ln lt l 198
gram/ngi/nm v 126 gram/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, nhm h giu c lng c ph
c biu tng bnh qun l 297 gram/ngi/nm. Cn 2 nhm h trung bnh v ngho c
lng c tng t hn so vi 2 nhm h ny ti H Ni, ln lt l 172 gram/ngi/nm
v 101 gram/ngi/nm.

Hnh 32: Lng c ph c cho tng theo nhm h (gr/ngi/nm)


H Ni

300

TP HCM

250
200
150
100
50
0
Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

V mt nhn hiu, cc nhn hiu c ph m cc h c biu tng phong ph, a dng


hn cc nhn hiu c ph mua tng. l cc nhn hiu: Trung Nguyn, Highland,
Vinacafe, Nescafe, Nestle, Capuchino, Davidoff v cc nhn hiu khc. Trong tng s

37

208 h c biu tng c ph H Ni, nhn hiu c ph Trung Nguyn vn chim a


s, khong 36,5%, tip l cc nhn hiu Nescafe 19,7% v Vinacafe 15,9%.
2.1.3 C ph mua tng
Nh trn cp, thng tin phn ny ch mang tnh cht tham kho v m t thy
c xu hng.
Trong s cc h iu tra ti H Ni, c 26.5% c ph c mua dng tng. Con s ny
TP HCM l 31.4%.
Ti H Ni, lng mua trung bnh u ngi l 114 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr bnh
qun 7 nghn/ngi/nm. Hai qun Hai B Trng v Cu Giy c lng mua bnh qun
u ngi cao nht ti H Ni, ln lt l 160 gram/ngi/nm v 133 gram/ngi/nm.
Ti TP HCM, lng mua bnh qun u ngi cao hn H Ni, khong 182
gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr trung bnh khong 37 nghn/ngi/nm. TP HCM, qun
Tn Ph c lng mua trung bnh u ngi cao nht, 365 gram/ngi/nm, tip l
qun G Vp, 308 gram/ngi/nm.
Hnh 33: Tnh hnh mua c ph tng H Ni v TP HCM

200

Lng mua u ngi (gr)


Gi tr mua u ngi (1000)

150
100
50
0
H Ni

TP HCM

Phn theo loi h, lng mua bnh qun ca cc h giu ti H Ni l 131


gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh l 119 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h ngho mua
tng t nht, lng mua bnh qun ch c 36 gram/ngi/nm. Ti thnh ph H Ch
Minh, nhm h giu c lng mua bnh qun tng rt cao, cao gp i so vi nhm h
giu H Ni, 258 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh c lng mua l 179
gram/ngi/nm, nhm h ngho l 75 gram/ngi/nm. Nhn chung, c 3 nhm h,
lng mua bnh qun tng ca cc h iu tra ti TP HCM nhiu hn hn so vi cc
h c iu tra H Ni.

38

Hnh 34: Lng mua c ph tng phn theo loi h (gr/ngi/nm)


Ha Noi
300

TP HCM

250
200
150
100
50
0
Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

V nhn hiu cc loi c ph mua tng, trong tng s 99 h mua c ph tng H


Ni, c ti 35 h mua c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn, tip l Nescafe, khong 27 h.
Ti TP HCM, tng s h mua tng l 120, trong 70 h (chim 58%) mua c ph
nhn hiu Trung Nguyn. Nhn hiu c mua nhiu tip theo l Vinacafe vi khong 20
h (chim khong 17%). Kt qu iu tra cho thy nhn hiu c ph Trung Nguyn c
mua nhiu nht, c bit l ti th trng TP HCM.

2.2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca tng c nhn


Cc thng tin trong phn ny ch yu xc nh mc , thi quen tiu th ca tng c
nhn trong h gia nh iu tra. Nhng thng tin y ch c tnh cht xu hng v m
t.
Trong nm 2004, cc h iu tra H Ni rt t tiu th c ph ti nh, t l khng bao
gi ung chim 48%. T l ny TP HCM chim t hn, khong 40%. Khong 16% s
ngi c iu tra ti H Ni ung c ph ti nh trung bnh vi cc 1 nm, v 14%
ung 1-3 cc/thng. Cn TP HCM th mc thng xuyn hn, t l ung 1 cc/ngy
chim 13%, t l ung 2-3 cc/ngy chim khong 18%.

39

Hnh 35: Tn sut tiu dng c nhn ti nh nm 2004


1400

TP HCM
H Ni

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Khng bao
gi

Vi
cc/nm

1-3
cc/thng

1-4
cc/tun

4-6
1 cc/ngy 2-3
Khc
cc/tun
cc/ngy

V loi c ph, H Ni, loi c ph ch yu c tiu dng ti nh l c ph ho tan


sa, chim 67%, tip theo l c ph bt en, 21%. Ti TP H Ch Minh, c ph bt en
c tiu dng nhiu nht, 38%, tip theo l ho tan sa, 27% v bt sa, 20%. Nh vy,
th hiu tiu dng c ph ti nh ca H Ni v TP HCM c i cht khc bit. iu ny
cng cho thy tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu tm hiu s thch, th hiu ca tng a
phng trong kinh doanh c ph.

Hnh 36: S ngi tiu dng cc loi c ph nm 2004


H Ni
500

TP HCM

400
300
200
100
0
Ho tan en Ho tan sa

Bt en

Bt sa

Thi gian tiu th c ph c nhn ti nh cng thng khng c nh i vi c H Ni


v TP HCM, chim khong 52%. Tip l tiu th vo bui sng, H Ni l khong
32%, TP HCM khong 39%. Lng tiu th c ph ti nh c 2 thnh ph so vi nm
2002 ni chung khng thay i nhiu. Trong s cc h c phng vn, khong 56% s
ngi khng thay i tiu th t nm 2002 n 2004.

40

Hnh 37: Thi gian tiu dng c ph c nhn ti nh nm 2004 (s ngi)


H Ni

450

TP HCM

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sng

Tra

Ti

Chiu

Khng c
nh

3. Tnh hnh tiu th ngoi gia nh


Ti H Ni, c ti 64% s h iu tra khng bao gi tiu dng ngoi, cc h tiu dng
khong vi cc/nm hoc vi cc/thng chim t l nh hn ln lt l 13.3% v 11.6%.
Ti TP HCM, s h khng bao gi tiu dng c ph bn ngoi nh hn so vi H Ni
nhng vn chim a s, khong 53%. Cng khng c s chnh lch nhiu gia 2 nhm
nam v n trong tiu dng c ph bn ngoi. Lng tiu th c ph bn ngoi theo tng
mc ca 2 nhm ny gn tng ng nhau.
Hnh 38: S ngi tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh
1800

TP HCM

1600

H Ni

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Khng bao
gi

Vi
cc/nm

1-3
1-4
cc/thng cc/tun

1 cc/ngy
4-6
cc/tun

Khc
2-3
cc/ngy

V cc loi c ph c tiu dng bn ngoi nm 2004, cc h iu tra ch yu dng cc


loi c ph bt en, bt sa v ha tan sa. Ti H Ni, s h tiu dng c ph bt en
ngoi chim 45,5%, tip l c ph bt sa chim 30,3% v c ph ha tan sa chim
22,4%. thnh ph H Ch Minh, cc h iu tra ch yu tiu dng c ph bt en
ngoi vi t l khong 61%, nhiu hn hn so vi c ph bt en H Ni. Loi c ph
41

c a chung th nh l c ph bt sa, chim khong 30%. Cc h TP HCM ung


rt t c ph ha tan sa, ch khong 2,8%, t hn rt nhiu so vi cc h H Ni. Nh
vy, c th thy s khc bit r v th hiu cc loi c ph thng qua s h c iu tra
2 th trng H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Ngi tiu dng thnh ph H Ch Minh ch
yu thch tiu dng cc loi c ph bt en bn ngoi, hu nh khng dng c ph ha
tan sa. Trong khi , ngi tiu dng H Ni li c s thch a dng hn vi cc loi c
ph bt en, bt sa v ha tan sa. i tng ch yu tiu th c ph bn ngoi l nhm
h trung bnh c H Ni v TP H Ch Minh.
Hnh 39: Loi c ph c tiu dng ngoi nm 2004
H Ni

400

TP HCM

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bt en

Bt sa

Ho tan
en

Ho tan
sa

Khc

Theo kt qu iu tra, thi im tiu th c ph bn ngoi ca c 2 i tng nam v n


H Ni v TP HCM hu ht khng c nh. Bui ti l thi im c tiu th nhiu th
hai, tip l bui sng. V thi v tiu th c ph bn ngoi, cc h c phng vn
u ch yu tiu th quanh nm, khng vo ma no c nh. T l ny H Ni khong
66%, TP HCM chim khong 82%.
Nm 2004, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni tiu th trung bnh 63,5 gr/ngi/nm, thp
hn rt nhiu so vi mc 152 gr/ngi/nm ti TP H Ch Minh. Gi tr tiu th cng
bin ng tng ng, mc 9150 v 21900 /ngi/tun ti H Ni v TP H Ch
Minh.
Bng 1: Lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh HN v TP HCM
H Ni
Bin

S h

TP H Ch Minh

Trung bnh

S h

Trung bnh

Lng (gr/ngi/nm)

251

63.46

295

152

Gi tr (000/ngi/tun)

251

9.15

295

21.9

42

4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c
ph tiu th ti hai Thnh ph
4.1. Phn tch c ph tiu th trong gia nh
Hnh 40: Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun v lng c ph tiu th H Ni

T i u th c p h b n h
q u n ( g r / n g i/ n m )

1 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
0
0

2 0 0 0
T

6 0 0 0

4 0 0 0
n

8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
n

( 1 0

/ n

i/ t h

Hnh 41: Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th TP
HCM
8 0 0 0

T i u t h b n h q u n
( g r / n g i/ n m )

7 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0
1 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

h u

n h p

b n h

q u n

1 5 0 0 0

( 1 0 0 0 / n g

43

i/ t h n

Hai biu trn cho thy v mt thng k m t, khng c mi quan h no gia thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun c hai thnh ph. C
ngi c thu nhp thp v thu nhp cao u ch yu tiu th khong t 0 n 2000 gr c
ph/nm. thnh ph HCM, s ngi c thu nhp di 5 triu ng/thng chim a s,
v mc d h ch yu tiu th di 2000 gr/nm, nhng s ngi tiu th t 2000 gr/nm
n khong 8000 gr/nm chim s lng kh ln, khong 9% trong tng s. Trong khi
phn ln ngi H Ni ung di 1800 gr/nm, s ngi ung trn 2000 gr/nm ch
chim khong 3%. Tuy nhin, hnh v trn cng cho thy tng quan gia thu nhp v
lng tiu th c ph H Ni ln hn TP HCM.
Vic hu ht s mu tp trung ch yu gc bn tri ca hnh v c th do hai nguyn
nhn, th nht, s mu iu tra cha ln v i din cho nhiu ngi c thu nhp cao
thy c xu th tiu th ca h. Th hai, trn thc t, s ngi tiu th c ph ch
yu l ngi c thu nhp trung bnh. C th thy c iu ny qua phn tch hi quy.
Bng 2: Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun H Ni
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | 5432318.02
1 5432318.02
Residual |
238713564
347 687935.342
-------------+-----------------------------Total |
244145882
348 701568.625

Number of obs
F( 1,
347)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE

=
=
=
=
=
=

349
7.90
0.0052
0.0223
0.0194
829.42

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cons_HN_pc |
.1649035
.0586828
2.81
0.005
.0494847
.2803223
_cons |
1036.923
54.45824
19.04
0.000
929.8129
1144.032
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti H Ni, c mi quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v
lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh mc tin cy 95%, vi ch s t=2.81
v P di 0.05. Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng tiu th c ph u ngi tng
khong 0,164 n v. Tuy nhin, ch s R-squared rt thp, 0.023 cho thy ch c 2,23%
thay i trong lng tiu th c ph c gii thch bng thay i bin ng ca thu
nhp.
Bng 3: Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun HCM
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
350
-------------+-----------------------------F( 1,
348) =
1.96
Model | 2357683.37
1 2357683.37
Prob > F
= 0.1622
Residual |
418287866
348 1201976.63
R-squared
= 0.0056
-------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0027
Total |
420645549
349 1205288.11
Root MSE
= 1096.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

44

cons_HCM_pc | -.0831819
.0593928
-1.40
0.162
-.1999959
.0336322
_cons |
1468.974
73.89118
19.88
0.000
1323.644
1614.303
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti TP HCM, khng c quan h c ngha gia thu nhp
v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh vi ch s t rt thp (1,4) v ch s P
cao qu 0.05. iu ny cho thy ngi dn TP HCM tiu th nhiu hay t c ph khng
ph thuc vo bin ng thu nhp. Tuy nhin, nh trn ni, do s mu h thu nhp cao
t nn iu ny c th cha ng vi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao hn 10 triu
ng/thng. Tuy nhin, vic mt s t mu ngi c thu nhp trn 10 triu ng/thng
tiu th vn t c ph l do h khng c thi gian v c ph l mt thc ung mang tnh
cht thng thc nhiu hn nn cn thi gian. V cng c th do y ch l kt qu hi
quy lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh, trong khi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao thng
khng c thi gian ung c ph ti gia nh.
4.2. Phn tch tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh
Bng 4: Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung
bnh ti HN
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
250
-------------+-----------------------------F( 1,
248) =
22.42
Model | 17989726.5
1 17989726.5
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual |
198963671
248 802272.867
R-squared
= 0.0829
-------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0792
Total |
216953397
249 871298.785
Root MSE
=
895.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol_year |
3.637118
.7680795
4.74
0.000
2.124327
5.149909
_cons |
1023.936
74.63793
13.72
0.000
876.9306
1170.941
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bng 5: Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung


bnh ti TP HCM
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | 6265636.01
1 6265636.01
Residual |
393787845
293 1343985.82
-------------+-----------------------------Total |
400053481
294 1360726.13

Number of obs
F( 1,
293)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE

=
=
=
=
=
=

295
4.66
0.0316
0.0157
0.0123
1159.3

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol |
1.143923
.5297997
2.16
0.032
.1012281
2.186619
_cons |
1287.619
105.1137
12.25
0.000
1080.746
1494.493
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

45

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy quan h gia lng tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh v thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi c ngha mc tin cy 95% c hai thnh ph vi gi tr
t ln v gi tr P nh. H Ni mi quan h gia hai bin ny cht hn. Khi thu nhp
tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm tng khong 3,63 n v.
Mi quan h gia 2 bin ny TP HCM mc d c ngha thng k nhng khng ln
lm, Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm ch tng
1,14 n v.
II. KT QU IU TRA QUN GII KHT
1. c im qun
Theo kt qu iu tra cc qun c ph, cc qun c ph H Ni ra i sm hn TP
HCM. C th H Ni, cc qun ra i cch y khong 12 nm, trong khi TP HCM,
cc qun ra i cch y khong 4 nm.
V mt quy m, qun H Ni nh hn TP HCM. Ti H Ni, din tch trung bnh ca
qun khong 100m2. Mi qun c khong 26 bn v 9 nhn vin phc v. Cn ti TP
HCM, din tch trung bnh ca mi qun rng gn gp i qun H Ni, khong
175m2. Trung bnh mi qun TP HCM c khong 56 bn vi 23 nhn vin.
Cc qun c ph TP HCM bn cc loi mt hng a dng hn H Ni. Ti H Ni,
trung bnh cc qun ch bn khong 9 loi nc gii kht. Cn ti TP HCM, cc qun bn
trung bnh ti 40 loi.
i tng khch hng ca cc qun c 2 thnh ph gm nhiu thnh phn: thanh nin,
sinh vin, cn b, gii kinh doanh. Khch hng H Ni ch yu l sinh vin, thanh
nin, cn b. Ti TPHCM, nhm khch hng ch yu l thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh
doanh.
Hnh 42: Doanh thu ca cc qun c ph ti hai thnh ph (1000/qun/nm)
2004
2002

3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

H Ni

H Ch Minh

46

2. Tnh hnh mua c ph


Cc qun c ph ch yu mua c ph bt, loi ln v Arabica v kinh doanh. Ti H Ni,
cc qun thng mua loi c ph khng hng v, trong khi cc qun TP HCM li
mua loi c hng v. cng l mt s khc bit v th hiu tiu dng c ph ti 2
thnh ph.
Ngun gc cc loi c ph m cc qun ly v kinh doanh ch yu t 2 vng sn xut c
ph ln ca Vit Nam l k Lk v Lm ng. Cc nh cung cp c ph cho cc qun
ch yu l cc nh bun bn t nhn ti thnh ph v mt s doanh nghip.
V mt nhn hiu, cc nhn hiu c ph ch yu c mua kinh doanh trong cc qun
ti TP HCM l Trung Nguyn, Bin Ho, Pht t. Ti H Ni, cc nhn hiu ph bin l
Mai, Trung Nguyn, Thu H.
Lng mua vo ti cc qun c ph H Ni thp hn TP HCM, trung bnh l 100 v
133 kg/qun/nm, cho thy lng tiu th ca cc qun TP HCM c th ln hn H
Ni.
Hnh 43: Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004 (kg/nm)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

H Ni

TP HCM

Lng mua c ph cng khc bit gia cc quy m qun. Cc qun c ph ln mua trung
bnh 122 kg, ln gp gn 2 ln qun c ph trung bnh v gp 10 ln qun c ph quy m
nh.
Hnh 44: Lng mua c ph ti 2 TP theo loi qun (kg/nm)

47

250
200
150
100
50
0

Ln

Trung bnh

Nh

3. Tnh hnh bn c ph.


Lng c ph bn hng ngy ti cc qun iu tra TP H Ch Minh ln hn H Ni rt
nhiu. Trung bnh H Ni, 1 qun c ph bn c khong 20 cc, trong khi TP
HCM, trung bnh 1 qun bn c khong 30 cc. V mc gi TP HCM cng cao hn
H Ni khong 3-4000 /cc.
Hnh 45: Tnh hnh bn c ph ti hai thnh ph
Gi (1000/cc)

30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

Lng cc bn/ngy

H Ni

TP HCM

Ti cc qun c ph H Ni v TP HCM, cc loi c ph bn chnh l en nng, nu


nng, Arabica. H Ni, cc qun thng bn c ph bt en vo bui sng v bt
nu vo bui tui. Nhng TP HCM th li khc bit i cht, cc qun bn mt loi c
ph bt en vo c bui sng v ti.
V i tng khch hng, 2 nhm khch hng chnh ti H Ni l sinh vin/bn b v cn
b. Nhm khch hng u tin thng dng loi c ph bt nu ti qun. Cn nhm th
hai li ch yu dng c ph bt en. Ti TP HCM th cc i tng khch hng u thch
ung c ph bt en ti qun, c bit l gii thanh nin. Nhm khch hng l ph n, tr
em, hc sinh rt t ung c ph ti qun.
48

Theo iu tra ca Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn i vi 2000 khch hng trong v ngoi
qun c ph th trong s cc loi ung, c ph ng vai tr kh quan trng. H ung 7
ln/tun. Trong s cc loi nc ung ti qun, c ti 43% s khch c hi ti qun
ung c ph.

Bi

c
i kh

Lo

t
khi
N
c
tin h

S
a

Tr

a q
u
N
c
ho

ph
C

c
ng

a/

th

c u

c
ng

Hnh 46: T l khch hng tiu th c ph v cc loi nc ung khc nm 2003

N h

Ngun: Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn (2003)


V cc loi c ph c bn ti qun, trong 2004 khch hng c hi th c 71 thng
hiu c nhc n u tin. Trong thng hiu c khch hng nhc n nhiu
nht, lp li nhiu nht ng u l c ph Trung Nguyn (chim 80%), ng th nh l
Nescafe chim 6%, ng th ba l Vinacafe chim 2%. Nhng thng hiu c ph va
c ni trn l nhng thng hiu c bit n hu ht trn ton quc, do c s
lng khch hng bit n nhiu.

Hnh 47: T l khch hng nhc n cc thng hiu c ph

49

100
80
60
40
20
0

T.Nguyen

Vina
TPHCM

Nes
Ha Noi

Cafe BMT

Da Nang

Mehyco

Me Trang

Can Tho

Ngun: Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn (2003)


iu tra ca Trung Nguyn cng cho thy khch hng vo qun c ph chim s ng
nht l gii sinh vin hc sinh chim 26,1%. Tip theo khch hng l i tng bun
bn/c s ngh chim 15,6%. Khch hng l i tng cng nhn vin ni chung bao
gm: cng ty nh nc, cng ty trong nc, cng ty lin doanh c 766 ngi, chim
38,2%.

50

CHNG IV.
KT LUN V KHUYN NGH

1. Kt lun
C ph c ngha quan trng i vi nhiu quc gia trn th gii. V mt kinh t, ngnh
hng c ph ng gp trung bnh 20% tng kim ngch xut khu cho nhiu nc sn xut
c ph. V mt x hi, sn xut v bun bn c ph gip to cng n vic lm cho hng
chc triu ngi trn th gii, gip gim t l i ngho, bt bnh ng ca nhiu quc
gia. Hn th na, c ph cn l biu tng, nim am m ca nhiu ni th gii. l
thi k hong kim ca c ph khi gi ln cao n nh im. Tuy nhin, khi th trng c
ph ri vo khng hong na cui thp k 90 th k XX, gi c ph th gii xung n
mc thp k lc trong vng 4 thp k qua, nh hng nghim trng n li ch ngnh c
ph ni chung v hng chc triu ngi tham gia vo chui ngnh hng c ph. Mt
nguyn nhn quan trng dn n cuc khng hong ny l s mt cn bng cung cu c
ph th gii. Khi gi tng mnh t ngt do Brazin mt ma ln v sng mui, hng lot
nc sn xut c ph c bit l nc sn xut c ph Robusta nh Vit Nam m rng
din tch trng c ph t, sn lng c ph tng nhanh trong khi cu tiu th c ph cc
nc trn th gii vo thi im hu nh khng thay i. Trong nhng nm gn y,
tc tng cu tiu th c ph trong nc t khong 1,5%/nm, c bit l cc nc
xut khu c ph nh Brazin, Indonesia v n . Cu tiu th c ph ca Brazil nm
2004 t ti 4,01 kg/ngi/nm, mc cao nht k t thp nin 60. Nh vy, Brazil c th
ch ng c ngun tiu th c ph, ngay c trong nhng thi im gi th gii xung
thp. l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin cho nhm nghin cu Vin Chnh sch
v Chin lc PTNNNT tin hnh nghin cu tiu th c ph trong nc ti 2 thnh ph
ln, xc nh xu th, thi quen v tim nng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam, trn c s
xut ra mt s chnh sch v chin lc tng cng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam.
1.1. iu tra h gia nh

Tiu th trong gia nh

Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, tiu th c ph u ngi hai thnh ph ln nm 2004


ca Vit Nam vn mc rt thp trn th gii. Mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi TP
H Ch Minh l 1651 gr/ngi/nm v H Ni l 752 gr/ngi/nm. So vi nm 2002,
mc d tn sut mua c ph nm 2004, lng c ph tiu th bnh qun trong gia nh
c hai thnh ph nm 2004 u tng vi s lng ln. Lng tiu th TP HCM tng
21% trong 2 nm, trong khi mc tng ca H Ni t khong 25% nhng do xut pht

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im thp hn nn nm 2004, lng tiu th tuyt i H Ni vn thp hn TP HCM


rt nhiu. Mc tng trong 2 nm 2 thnh ph l do cht lng c ph c ci thin,
nhn thc ca ngi dn v thnh phn dinh dng v tc dng tt i vi sc kho v
lng qu tng bng c ph nhiu hn.
Phn tch cho thy ti H Ni, c mi quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th
c ph bnh qun trong gia nh mc tin cy 95%. Trong khi , ti TP HCM, khng
c quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh
vi ch s t rt thp (1,4) v ch s P cao qu 0.05. iu ny cho thy ngi dn TP HCM
tiu th nhiu hay t c ph khng ph thuc vo bin ng thu nhp.
Tiu th c ph trong gia nh c chia thnh hai loi: lng mua c ph cho tiu th
trong gia nh v lng c ph c cho/tng.
V tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh, c ti hn 20% v 14% s ngi
c iu tra H Ni v TP HCM khng bao gi mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia
nh. H Ni, hu ht cc h c iu tra (70%) ch mua c ph vi ln trong mt
nm; trong khi TP HCM c ti 53% s h c iu tra mua c ph vi ln/thng hoc
tun. iu ny cng gii thch ti sao mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi TP HCM ln
hn H Ni. Lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh ti H Ni t khong 551
gr/ngi/nm so vi mc 1461 gr/ngi/nm ca TP HCM. Lng mua c ph cho tiu
th gia nh H Ni gim dn t l thun theo mc thu nhp ca cc h. Trong khi ,
TP HCM, s liu m t cho thy lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nhm ngho
thm ch cn cao hn cht t so vi nhm thu nhp trung bnh. i vi 70% s ngi
mua c ph vi ln/nm H Ni, tng lng mua khong 566 gr/ngi/nm, cao hn
i cht so vi mc 481 gr/ngi/nm TP HCM. i vi cc h mua c ph vi
ln/thng hoc tun, lng mua TP HCM nhiu gp 1,45 ln so vi TP HCM.
V mc ch mua c ph, ti H Ni, cc h ch yu mua c ph cho tiu th hng ngy,
cho cc dp l Tt. Ti TP HCM, ch yu c mua tip khch, chim khong 78%.
Cc loi c ph chnh c cc h H Ni v TP HCM tiu dng nhiu trong nm gm:
c ph ha tan sa, c ph ha tan en, c ph bt, c ph bt hn hp. V nhn hiu c
ph, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM ch yu mua c ph Trung Nguyn,
Highlands, Vinacafe, Nescafe, Nestle.
V tnh hnh c cho/tng c ph, lng c ph c cho/tng H Ni ch chim
khong 27% trong tng lng tiu th trong khi con s ny TP HCM l khong 12%.
Lng c ph c cho/tng ti H Ni v TP HCM ln lt l 201 v 191 gr/ngi/nm.
Lng c ph c cho/tng gim dn theo mc thu nhp. Cc loi c ph chnh c
cho tng cc h l c ph Trung Nguyn, Highland, Vinacafe, Nescafe...

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Tiu th ngoi gia nh

Cc h TP HCM tiu th ngoi gia nh nhiu hn H Ni, ch yu ung 2-3 cc/ngy


tr ln. Ngi tiu dng H Ni ung nhiu c ph bt (en v sa) v ho tan sa; cn
cc h TPHCM li ch yu ung c ph bt, cc qun c ph.
Nhn hiu c tiu th ch yu l cc hng sn xut trong nc nh Trung Nguyn,
Vinacafe, Mai
Nhm i tng ung c ph l cn b cng chc ch yu ti H Ni. Nhm ngi kinh
doanh l nhm tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh c H Ni v TP HCM.
Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy quan h gia lng tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh v thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi c ngha mc tin cy 95% c hai thnh ph vi gi tr
t ln v gi tr P nh.
1.2. iu tra qun c ph
Qun c ph H Ni ra i sm hn, quy m nh hn v chuyn mn ho cao hn HCM.
Ngun cung ch yu cho cc qun c ph kinh doanh l Doanh nghip v ngi bun bn
trong nc. C ph xut x t 2 vng sn xut ln ca Vit Nam. Cc qun ch yu mua
c ph bt, ln v Arabica kinh doanh. So vi nm 2002, lng mua c ph cho kinh
doanh ca cc qun thp hn nm 2004. Lng mua c ph ca cc qun H Ni cng
thp hn TP HCM.
Cc qun ch yu bn en nng, nu nng v Arabica (rt t ho tan), c bit cc
qun TP HCM ch a chung mua c ph bt en.
S khch ung c ph trong nm 2002 t hn so vi nm 2004. Khch hng H Ni ch
yu l sinh vin, thanh nin, cn b, TPHCM l thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh doanh.
Cc qun c ph cng a ra nhng kin ring, nhng gii php gip pht trin cng
vic kinh doanh, bao gm: Tng cht lng, gim gi thnh, qung co, phc v tt
2. Khuyn ngh

Thng xuyn tin hnh iu tra mc tng cu trong nc, xu hng v i


tng tiu th.

Thit lp nhm chuyn gia xy dng chin lc tiu th c ph ni a, hc tp


kinh nghim pht trin th trng trong nc ca cc t chc quc t v cc nc
tiu th ln khc, c bit l nc sn xut.

Chnh ph cn h tr v ti chnh cho chng trnh xc tin thng mi th


trng c ph trong nc v chng trnh pht trin ton din c ph bn vng.

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Cn a ni dung xc tin thng mi trong nc trong ni dung pht trin tng


th ngnh c ph pht trin bn vng, c bit ch trng n phng thc qun l
v nh hng.

Chnh ph cn h tr cc doanh nghip, ngi kinh doanh c ph trong nc trin


khai chng trnh xc tin thng mi (v k thut v phng thc t chc)

Mt s xut cho chin lc pht trin th trng trong nc:

Chn v c chin lc phn loi i tng ph hp:

Gii tr, gii kinh doanh (ch trng c ph bt, cht lng cao, c hng v
HCM),

Vn phng, c quan nh nc (HN): ch trng c ph ho tan, c hng v

Chn thi im thch hp: H Ni th nn vo ma ng, dp l tt v ma


thi; HCM: vo dp l tt v ma thi.

H Ni: nn lp cc qun c ph chuyn mn ho; HCM: nn a dng ho


cc loi nc ung thu ht khch kt hp chng trnh khuyn mi ung c
ph

Doanh nghip nn thnh lp cc dy chuyn sn xut c ph cht lng


cao phc v nhu cu: tt c cc khu trong chui ngnh hng; hng ti ng
k chng ch xut x hoc thng hiu.

u t cng ngh ch bin c ph ho tan t c ph Robusta l th mnh


ca VN.

Doanh nghip cn ch trng thu mua t nhiu ngun sn xut c ph trong


nc, c bit l c ph Arabica min ni pha Bc.

54

SCH THAM KHO

1.

Bo co Nghin cu ngnh c ph, 6/2004, Ngn hng Th gii

2.

Bo co nghin cu kh nng cnh tranh ca c ph Robusta Vit Nam, 2003,


SDC-MISPA

3.

Bo co nn ngnh hng c ph Vit Nam, 2004, ICARD-MISPA

4.

Bo co nghin cu nh gi tc ng ca thc tin s dng u vo cho sn xut


c ph k Lk, 2005, Trn Th Qunh Chi v cng s

5.

Bo co kt qu iu tra ca cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn, 2003

6.

C ph Vit Nam, 1999, on Triu Nhn v cng s

7.

Surendra Kotecha, 2001, Commentary: The1st ICO World Conference and Report
of Proceedings

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