Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc Pht trin Nng nghip Nng thn (IPSARD)
Chuyn gia ca t chc CIRAD, Php
3
Trung tm T vn Chnh sch Nng nghip, IPSARD
2
MC LC
DANH SC BIU V BNG
DANH SCH CC T VIT TT
LI TA
CHNG I.........................................................................................................................9
GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU.......................................................................9
1. Bi cnh v ngha ca nghin cu........................................................................9
2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu........................................................................................11
3. Phng php nghin cu.......................................................................................11
3.1. Ngun s liu.................................................................................................11
3.1.1. S liu th cp.........................................................................................11
3.1.2. S liu s cp...........................................................................................11
3.2. Phng php phn tch..................................................................................13
3.2.1. Phn tch thng k m t........................................................................13
3.2.2. Phng php phn tch kinh t lng......................................................14
4. Hn ch ca nghin cu:........................................................................................14
CHNG II.....................................................................................................................15
TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM......................................15
I. TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII..........................................................15
II. NHNG NT CHNH V TNH HNH TIU TH C PH VIT NAM .........19
1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua VHLSS nm 2002.......................19
1.1. Khc bit gia nng thn v thnh th..........................................................19
1.2. Khc bit gia cc nhm thu nhp.................................................................20
1.3. Khc bit gia cc vng................................................................................21
2. Tiu th c ph Vit Nam - nhn nh t cc ngun thng tin khc.....................22
Hp 1................................................................................................................................25
CHNG III....................................................................................................................26
XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI HAI
THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH....................................................................26
I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH....................................................................26
1. c im h gia nh ............................................................................................26
1.1 tui............................................................................................................26
1.2 Trnh gio dc............................................................................................26
1.3 Vic lm..........................................................................................................27
1.4 Thu nhp.........................................................................................................27
2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh................................................................29
2.1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca cc h iu tra.........................29
2.1.1. Tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh.............................................31
2.1.2. Tnh hnh c ph c cho/tng nm 2004..............................................36
2.1.3 C ph mua tng...................................................................................38
2.2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca tng c nhn............................39
3. Tnh hnh tiu th ngoi gia nh...........................................................................41
4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph
tiu th ti hai Thnh ph..........................................................................................43
2
Hnh 1
Hnh 2
Hnh 3
Hnh 4
Hnh 5
Hnh 6
Phn b mu ti cc qun H Ni
Phn b mu ti cc qun TPHCM
Tiu th C ph u ngi mt s nc (kg/ngi/nm)
Sn xut, xut khu v tiu th C ph Indonesia 1998 - 2003 (tn)
Bin ng gi C ph th gii nm 2004 (USD/tn)
Lng (kg/ngi) v gi tr 1000/ngi tiu th c ph bnh qun u
Hnh 7
Hnh 8
Hnh 9
Hnh 10
Hnh 11
Hp 1
Hnh 12
Hnh 13
Hnh 14
Hnh 15
Hnh 16
Hnh 17
Hnh 18
Hnh 19
Hnh 20
Hnh 21
Hnh 22
Hnh 23
Hnh 24
Hnh 25
Hnh 26
Hnh 27
Hnh 28
Hnh 29
Hnh 30
Hnh 31
Hnh 32
Hnh 33
Hnh 34
Hnh 35
Hnh 36
Hnh 37
Hnh 38
Hnh 39
Bng 1
Hnh 40
Hnh 41
Bng 2
Bng 3
Bng 4
TPHCM
Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun H Ni
Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun HCM
Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung
Bng 5
bnh ti H Ni
Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung
Hnh 42
Hnh 43
Hnh 44
Hnh 45
Hnh 46
Hnh 47
bnh ti TPHCM
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004
Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph theo loi qun (kg/nm)
Tnh hnh bn c ph ti hai thnh ph
T l khch hng tiu th c ph v cc loi nc ung khc nm 2003
T l khch hng nhc n cc thng hiu c ph.
STT
Tn vit tt
Tn y
ICARD
ICO
T chc c ph th gii
IPSARD
MARD
MISPA
VICOFA
LI TA
CHNG I
GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU
http://www.math.grin.edu/~khannabh/colombia/coffee.php
10
2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu
Ba nh
Tn Ph
Qun 1
Thanh Xun
Qun 3
G Vp
Cu Giy
Hai B
Trng
Hon Kim
Qun 11
Bnh Thnh
Qun 6
iu tra qun c ph
iu tra ny mang tnh cht phn tch nhiu hn l m t. Vic chn mu ph thuc vo
vo mt s mt s c im v v tr v quy m ca qun. mi thnh ph tin hnh
iu tra 20 qun c ph, phn ra cc loi nh sau:
-
Bng hi h gia nh
-
Cc thng tin chung v tng thnh vin trong h (tn, gii tnh, tui, ngh nghip,
trnh hc vn...). Nhng thng tin ny rt cn thit xc nh cc nhm i
tng tiu th c ph chnh.
12
Thng tin v thu nhp ca tng thnh vin v tng thu nhp ca c h gia nh
c thu thp c th nh gi c tng quan gia thu nhp c nhn v h
vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph.
Phn thng tin chung bao gm nhng cu hi m c tnh cht nh tnh v nhng
nguyn nhn chnh khin ngi trong gia nh ung c ph, nhng nhn nh v
nhm ngi ung c ph chnh v nhng nguyn nhn chnh hn ch tiu th c
ph trong nc.
Bng hi qun c ph
-
Cc thng tin chung v qun c ph: quy m, a im, ngy gi m ca, thi
gian bn c ph chnh trong ngy, loi c ph v thc ung, doanh thu ca ca
hng nm 2002 v 2004
Thng tin v ngun cung cp c ph: tng lng mua c ph hng thng, v lng
mua c ph theo loi c ph, nhn hiu, xut x, c s cung cp.
13
Cc cng c kinh t lng c s dng trc ht phn tch tnh hnh tiu th
c ph v ch trong nm 1998 v 2002 t b s liu iu tra mc sng dn c ca
Tng cc Thng k.
Nhm nghin cu cng p dng phng php ny phn tch tng quan gia
thu nhp ca h v cc thnh vin trong h vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph.
Ngoi ra, mt s tng quan khc cng c xt n nh trnh hc vn, tui,
gii tnh, ngh nghip vi tnh hnh tiu th.
4. Hn ch ca nghin cu:
-
14
CHNG II
TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM
15
lng. Cc quan chc Braxin cho bit, sc mua ca ngi dn ang gia tng v s cn
tip tc tng trong nm ti. Tiu th ni a ca Braxin ang tng nhanh hn d kin.
Tnh n thng 10/04, bnh qun mi ngi dn tiu th 4,01 kg c ph - mc cao nht k
t thp nin 60. Ngnh c ph Brazil t mc tiu tng lng tiu th ni a ln 1,5
triu bao mi nm thng qua cc chng trnh qung co v khuyn mi, y mc tiu
th bnh qun ln 5,3 kg/ngi. Theo Hip hi cc nh xut khu c ph Braxin, tiu th
c ph ni a nm nay ca nc ny c tnh t 14,9 triu bao trong nm 2005, v con
s ny s tng ln 15,5 triu bao vo nm 2006. Ch tch Hip hi c ph Braxin Guivan
Bueno cho bit, Braxin d nh s nng mc tiu th ni a ln 21 triu bao vo nm
2010 v vt qua M.
Tng cu c ph cc nc tiu th truyn thng c xu hng chng li. Tuy nhin, cu
tiu th c ph ung lin, cc sn phm c ph cht lng cao v khc bit li ang c
a chung. ng thi, cc th trng ny cng tng thi quen tiu dng c ph kiu
Hnh 3: Tiu th c ph u ngi mt s nc (kg/ngi/nm)
6.00
EC
5.00
4.00
3.00
Nc NK khc
Nht Bn
2.00
1.00
0.00
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
16
Hnh 4:600,000
Sn xut, xut khu v tiu th c ph Indonesia 1998-2003 (tn)
Thanh Xun
500,000
490,734
384,893
400,000
343,510
300,000
477,289
449,387
450,676
448,510
328,176
(76,59%)
289,893
(72,82%)
(75,32%)
325,289
310,387
(69,07%)
332,734
(68,15%)
(67,67%)
127,000
133,000
200,000
100,000
89,000
80,000
(20,8%)
(17,8%)
102,500
(22,7%)
114,000
(26,6%)
(25,4%)
(27,7%)
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
Nm
Sn xut
Xut khu
Trong nc
Ngun:
AEKT & Various
17
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
Arabica
T6
T7
T8
Robusta
3.0
2.5
25
20
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
0.0
Thnh th
Nng thn
Trung bnh
19
Tnh hnh tiu th ca c hai loi c ph bt v c ph ung cng c s khc bit ln gia
thnh th v nng thn. Khu vc thnh th tiu th c ph ung lin nhiu gp 2,74 ln
khu vc nng thn, trong khi , chnh lch v gi tr tiu th loi c ph ny l gn 5 ln
gia hai khu vc. Gi tr tiu th tiu th c ph bt khu vc thnh th ln gp 2,65 ln
khu vc nng thn (7,8 v 2,9 nghn /ngi/nm).
Hnh 7: Lng tiu th c ph bt v ung lin 2002 (kg/ngi/nm)
20
30
3.0
Gi tr (1000/ngi)
25
2.5
20
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
0
2
Ngho nht
0.0
Giu nht
Tnh hnh tiu th c ph bt v ung lin cng din bin theo xu hng trn, tuy nhin,
lng c ph bt tiu th thp hn nhiu so vi lng c ph ung lin. nhm thu nhp
cao nht, lng c ph ung lin c tiu th nhiu gp 9,4 ln lng c ph bt. Trong
khi , nhm ngho nht, mc chnh lch ny l 9,8 ln.
Hnh 9: Lng c ph bt v ung lin theo nhm thu nhp (kg/ngi/nm)
C ph ung lin
3.00
0.30
C ph bt
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.20
1.50
0.15
1.00
0.10
0.50
0.05
0.00
Ngho
nht
0.00
Giu
nht
Trung
bnh
Gi tr tiu th ca cc khu vc din bin khng hon ton ging nh lng tiu th. c
bit l khu vc Duyn hi Nam Trung B v Ty Nguyn. khu vc Duyn hi Nam
Trung B, mc d lng tiu th u ngi rt cao (1,5kg/ngi/nm) nhng gi tr tiu
th ch t 6230 /ngi/nm. Trong khi khu vc Ty Nguyn, cc con s ny ln
lt l 0,28 kg v 4150. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gii thch hin tng ny l khu
vc Ty Nguyn ch yu tiu th cc loi c ph bt, c cht lng cao, vi lng c ph
bt tiu th khu vc ny cao th 3 trong ton quc (0,12 kg/ngi/nm) so vi mc
0,08kg ca vng Duyn hi Nam Trung B.
Hnh 10: Tiu th c ph u ngi theo vng ca Vit Nam nm 2002
Lng
Gi tr
3.0
30
2.5
25
2.0
20
1.5
15
1.0
10
5
0.5
0.0
BSH
Ty
BSCL
ng Ty Bc Duyn
Nam
hi BTB Duyn
Bc
hi NTB Nguyn Trung B
TB
www.vnexpress.net, 10/2005
22
L o i A
T . N g u y n
B u n
L o i B
V in a c a p h e N e s tc a f e
T hM u Tt r a n g
C a fe
L o n g
K h c
23
ang tn dng mi phng tin thng tin tm kim i tc xut khu, Gim c doanh
nghip c ph Thu H ti Pleiku Ng Tn Gic cho bit 2/3 trong s hn 300.000 tn c
ph bt hng nm doanh nghip ny sn xut c dnh cho xut khu. "Chng ti c
gng pht trin th trng ni a nhng cnh tranh ht sc kh khn v doanh thu rt
thp so vi gi tr kim ngch xut khu". "m ng" v th trng pha Nam v TP
HCM, nhn hiu c ph Thu H 3 ln "tn cng", nhng tht bi vn hon tht bi.
"Hin Thu H ang tip cn trc tip ngi tiu dng bng cch m nhng tim phc v
ung c ph, nhng hiu qu khng cao lm".
M rng knh tip th v tiu th ni a bng cch phc v nhu cu thng thc c ph
ha tan hay pha sn cng ang l cch m mt s cng ty c ph ang la chn. Ngoi
"chui" qun c ph Trung Nguyn, mt lot nhn hiu khc nh Highland, Phc Ban
M, c ph Bun M Thut... ln lt m cc ca hiu c ph ti cc th ln nh TP
HCM, Cn Th, Quy Nhn... Song hiu qu th, "mc ch l qung b v gii thiu
sn phm ch khng t nng vn doanh thu", gim c mt cng ty ch bin c ph
ti Bun M Thut nhn nh.
Theo phn tch ca gii kinh doanh c ph ch bin, mt tr ngi khc khin cho c ph
Vit Nam kh tiu th ni a l do xu hng ung c ph "cng nghip" trong gii tr
ngy cng tng p ng nhu cu nhanh trong nhp sng hin i. "C ph ha tan tr
thnh xu hng tiu dng ch o hin nay, cng a dng hng v v p ng mi nhu
cu cng hp dn", i din Cng ty Nestcafe cho bit.
Th phn c ph ho tan hin nay chia cho 2 hng ln: Vinacafe: 50,4%, Nescaf: 33,2%
v cc nhn hiu khc 16,4%. Vinacafe lun theo st khu hiu tn trng v cao gi
tr truyn thng, mang nhng g tinh tu nht ca thin nhin n vi ngi tiu dng.
Hin nay Vinacafe chun b u t mt dy chuyn mi, cng sut khong 3200 tn c
ph ho tan/nm, gp 4 ln cng sut hin nay. Theo ng Bi Xun Thoa, Gim c
Cng ty C phn C ph Bin Ho (Vinacafe) Th trng c ph Vit Nam ang gia
tng cnh tranh quyt lit, vi th phn ng k v kinh nghim hn 30 nm, vn tiu
dng ni a thc s khng ng ngi vi Vinacafe. Chng ti s tng tng cu ni a
bng nhng phn khc mi v c v ngi tiu dng.
Trung Nguyn - doanh nghip lm ma lm gi trn th trng c ph phin vi thng
hiu Trung Nguyn nhiu nm qua lm nng th trng c ph ho tan bng sn phm
G7 vi tng mc u t cho mt dy chuyn sn xut c ph ho tan ln ti 10 triu
USD, cng sut 200 tn/nm. ng L Nguyn V, tng gim c cng ty Trung Nguyn
cho bit: Trung Nguyn phi dn tng lc cho cuc cnh tranh, nh G7 chim
mt th phn ni a ng k v c ph ho tan. Nhng ln hn ci li kinh t v c ph
ho tan Trung Nguyn ch yu xut khu, l qua G7 gp phn ng k vo phong
tro ngi Vit dng hng Vit, nng cao thc doanh nghip tr dm ng u vi cc
tp on quc t ngay trn sn nh.
24
25
CHNG III.
XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI
HAI THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH
I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH
Nh trnh by phn phng php nghin cu, nghin cu ny tin hnh iu tra
700 h ti hai thnh ph ln H Ni v Thnh ph HCM. Ti H Ni, 6 qun c chn
bao gm: Hon Kim, Hai B Trng, Ba nh, Hong Mai, Cu Giy, Thanh Xun. Ti
TP HCM, cc qun c chn l: qun 1, qun 3, qun 6, qun 11, qun Tn Ph, qun
G Vp, qun Bnh Thnh.
1. c im h gia nh
1.1 tui
Phng vn c tin hnh ch yu l vi nhng ngi chu trch nhim ni tr trong gia
nh. Trung bnh, mi h iu tra c khong 4 ngi. Kt qu iu tra cho thy, tui
trung bnh tiu th c ph thnh ph H Ni khong 36,3. Ti thnh ph H Ch Minh,
tui trung bnh ca ngi tiu th c ph c iu tra l 34,9.
Hnh 12: % s ngi phn theo gii v h - HN
Hnh 12 v 13 cho thy tui lao ng ca hai thnh ph chnh lch kh nhiu gia 3
loi h, c bit l nhm h giu vi s lng lao ng nam HN nhiu hn hn lao
ng n trong khi TP HCM s lng ny l tng ng nh nhau.
1.2 Trnh gio dc
Trong s cc h c iu tra, trnh gio dc H Ni cao hn i cht so vi thnh
ph HCM. Ti H Ni, trnh gio dc trung bnh cc qun tng i cao. Trnh
cp 3 cao nht (370 ngi), tip l trnh i hc (313). Ti TP H Ch Minh, trnh
cp 3 cng cao nht (464), tip l cp 2 (319). So vi H Ni, s ngi c trnh
i hc TP H Ch Minh thp hn (180).
26
500
TP HCM
400
300
200
100
0
M
ch
Cp I
Cp II Cp III
Hc
ngh
i
hc
Cao
hc
TS
1.3 Vic lm
S ngi c iu tra c ngh nghip a dng bao gm: Cn b nh nc, ngi lm
kinh doanh nh, cng nhn, doanh nghip, sinh vin, hc sinh, ni tr, v hu, ngi tn
tt, tht nghip,.Trong cc h iu tra ti H Ni, s ngi ngh hu l ch yu, chim
19,8%, tip theo l ngi lm kinh doanh, cn b cng chc, hc sinh, bun bn nh,
sinh vin, ln lt chim t l 16,4%, 13,8%, 13,7%, 11,6%, 8%. Cn li l cc ngh
nghip khc. Ti TP HCM, s h l kinh doanh chim a s 26,3%, tip l hc sinh
15,7%, cng nhn 14,6%, ni tr 9,7%, bun bn nh 9,1%. Ngi v hu v sinh vin
cng chim khong 6,5%, cn li l cc ngh nghip khc.
Hnh 15: Ngh nghip ca cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM (s ngi)
HN
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
HCM
Cn b
NN
Cng
nhn
Sinh
vin
Ni tr
Tn tt
Tht
nghip
Theo nh gi ca ngi phng vn, s lng h giu, ngho v trung bnh khng phn
b u trong mu. Trong khi ch c 18% h giu v 11% h ngho th c ti 71% h thu
nhp trung bnh.
Hnh 16: Phn loi theo nhm thu nhp (%)
5200
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
3800
H Ni
TP HCM
28
10000
TP HCM
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
1800
1600
Gi tr (1000)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
H Ni
TP HCM
29
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002
2004
2004
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2002
2500
2002
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
Ti c hai thnh ph ny, nhm giu l nhm c thay i lng tiu th c ph ln nht.
Ti H Ni, nm 2004 nhm giu v nhm trung bnh u c mc tiu th c ph nhiu
30
Tn sut mua c ph
Hnh 23: T l h mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004 (%)
H Ni
80
TP HCM
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Khng
bao gi
Vi ln/nm
Vi ln/thng
Vi ln/tun
31
Lng mua c ph
Hnh 24: Tng lng mua c ph u ngi cho tiu th trong gia nh nm 2004
32
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
TP HCM
H Ni
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
Nh thy trn, tn sut mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh c chia lm 4 loi: khng
bao gi, mua vi ln/nm, vi ln/thng v vi ln/tun.
-
Mua c ph vi ln/nm
33
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
H Ni
TP HCM
Lng c ph mua cng gim dn t h c thu nhp cao n h c thu nhp thp c hai
thnh ph (603 v 493 gr/ngi/nm HN v 497 v 423 gr/ngi/nm TP H Ch
Minh).
-
Lng c ph ca cc h mua nhiu ln trong thng hoc tun khc bit nhiu gia hai
thnh ph. Lng c ph cc h ny mua TP H Ch Minh nhiu gp 1,45 ln so vi
TP H Ni (2347 v 1617 gr/ngi/nm).
Hnh 27: Lng c ph mua vi ln/thng hoc tun nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
H Ni
TP HCM
34
Lm qu
Khc
Dp l tt
Lm qu
khc
35
Ti H Ni, cc h tiu dng c ph hng ngy chim 68%, tiu dng trong dp l tt
chim 15%, cn li l mua trong cc dp khc. Ti thnh ph HCM, ngc li so vi H
Ni, s h tr li khng tiu dng c ph theo ma ln, chim 84%, cn h tr li c rt
t, khong 16%. Nh vy, so vi H Ni, ngi tiu dng TP HCM c thi quen tiu
dng c ph thng xuyn hn, khng phn bit theo ma.
Cc loi c ph chnh
Theo kt qu iu tra, cc loi c ph chnh c cc h H Ni v TP HCM tiu dng
nhiu trong nm gm: c ph ha tan sa, c ph ha tan en, c ph bt, c ph bt hn
hp. Ti H Ni, c ph ha tan sa c tiu dng nhiu nht, chim 44,1% s h iu
tra, tip l c ph bt hn hp, chim 32,4%. Ti TP HCM, hai loi c ph ho tan sa
v ho tan en c tiu dng nhiu, ln lt chim 24,7% v 20,2%.
V nhn hiu c ph, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM cho bit v cc nhn
hiu c ph ch yu m h mua bao gm: Trung Nguyn, Highlands, Vinacafe, Nescafe,
Nestle v cc nhn hiu khc. Trong , c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn c tiu dng
nhiu nht, chim khong 45% H Ni v khong 59% TP H Ch Minh.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
H Ni
TP HCM
36
250
200
150
100
50
0
H Ni
TP HCM
Phn theo nhm h, ti H Ni, nhm h giu c lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng
l 269 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh v nhm h ngho ln lt l 198
gram/ngi/nm v 126 gram/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, nhm h giu c lng c ph
c biu tng bnh qun l 297 gram/ngi/nm. Cn 2 nhm h trung bnh v ngho c
lng c tng t hn so vi 2 nhm h ny ti H Ni, ln lt l 172 gram/ngi/nm
v 101 gram/ngi/nm.
300
TP HCM
250
200
150
100
50
0
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
37
200
150
100
50
0
H Ni
TP HCM
38
TP HCM
250
200
150
100
50
0
Giu
Trung bnh
Ngho
39
TP HCM
H Ni
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Khng bao
gi
Vi
cc/nm
1-3
cc/thng
1-4
cc/tun
4-6
1 cc/ngy 2-3
Khc
cc/tun
cc/ngy
TP HCM
400
300
200
100
0
Ho tan en Ho tan sa
Bt en
Bt sa
40
450
TP HCM
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sng
Tra
Ti
Chiu
Khng c
nh
TP HCM
1600
H Ni
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Khng bao
gi
Vi
cc/nm
1-3
1-4
cc/thng cc/tun
1 cc/ngy
4-6
cc/tun
Khc
2-3
cc/ngy
400
TP HCM
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bt en
Bt sa
Ho tan
en
Ho tan
sa
Khc
S h
TP H Ch Minh
Trung bnh
S h
Trung bnh
Lng (gr/ngi/nm)
251
63.46
295
152
Gi tr (000/ngi/tun)
251
9.15
295
21.9
42
4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c
ph tiu th ti hai Thnh ph
4.1. Phn tch c ph tiu th trong gia nh
Hnh 40: Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun v lng c ph tiu th H Ni
T i u th c p h b n h
q u n ( g r / n g i/ n m )
1 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
0
0
2 0 0 0
T
6 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
n
8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
n
( 1 0
/ n
i/ t h
Hnh 41: Quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th TP
HCM
8 0 0 0
T i u t h b n h q u n
( g r / n g i/ n m )
7 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0
1 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
h u
n h p
b n h
q u n
1 5 0 0 0
( 1 0 0 0 / n g
43
i/ t h n
Hai biu trn cho thy v mt thng k m t, khng c mi quan h no gia thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun c hai thnh ph. C
ngi c thu nhp thp v thu nhp cao u ch yu tiu th khong t 0 n 2000 gr c
ph/nm. thnh ph HCM, s ngi c thu nhp di 5 triu ng/thng chim a s,
v mc d h ch yu tiu th di 2000 gr/nm, nhng s ngi tiu th t 2000 gr/nm
n khong 8000 gr/nm chim s lng kh ln, khong 9% trong tng s. Trong khi
phn ln ngi H Ni ung di 1800 gr/nm, s ngi ung trn 2000 gr/nm ch
chim khong 3%. Tuy nhin, hnh v trn cng cho thy tng quan gia thu nhp v
lng tiu th c ph H Ni ln hn TP HCM.
Vic hu ht s mu tp trung ch yu gc bn tri ca hnh v c th do hai nguyn
nhn, th nht, s mu iu tra cha ln v i din cho nhiu ngi c thu nhp cao
thy c xu th tiu th ca h. Th hai, trn thc t, s ngi tiu th c ph ch
yu l ngi c thu nhp trung bnh. C th thy c iu ny qua phn tch hi quy.
Bng 2: Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun H Ni
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | 5432318.02
1 5432318.02
Residual |
238713564
347 687935.342
-------------+-----------------------------Total |
244145882
348 701568.625
Number of obs
F( 1,
347)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
349
7.90
0.0052
0.0223
0.0194
829.42
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cons_HN_pc |
.1649035
.0586828
2.81
0.005
.0494847
.2803223
_cons |
1036.923
54.45824
19.04
0.000
929.8129
1144.032
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti H Ni, c mi quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v
lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh mc tin cy 95%, vi ch s t=2.81
v P di 0.05. Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng tiu th c ph u ngi tng
khong 0,164 n v. Tuy nhin, ch s R-squared rt thp, 0.023 cho thy ch c 2,23%
thay i trong lng tiu th c ph c gii thch bng thay i bin ng ca thu
nhp.
Bng 3: Kt qu hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun HCM
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
350
-------------+-----------------------------F( 1,
348) =
1.96
Model | 2357683.37
1 2357683.37
Prob > F
= 0.1622
Residual |
418287866
348 1201976.63
R-squared
= 0.0056
-------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0027
Total |
420645549
349 1205288.11
Root MSE
= 1096.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
44
cons_HCM_pc | -.0831819
.0593928
-1.40
0.162
-.1999959
.0336322
_cons |
1468.974
73.89118
19.88
0.000
1323.644
1614.303
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti TP HCM, khng c quan h c ngha gia thu nhp
v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh vi ch s t rt thp (1,4) v ch s P
cao qu 0.05. iu ny cho thy ngi dn TP HCM tiu th nhiu hay t c ph khng
ph thuc vo bin ng thu nhp. Tuy nhin, nh trn ni, do s mu h thu nhp cao
t nn iu ny c th cha ng vi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao hn 10 triu
ng/thng. Tuy nhin, vic mt s t mu ngi c thu nhp trn 10 triu ng/thng
tiu th vn t c ph l do h khng c thi gian v c ph l mt thc ung mang tnh
cht thng thc nhiu hn nn cn thi gian. V cng c th do y ch l kt qu hi
quy lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh, trong khi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao thng
khng c thi gian ung c ph ti gia nh.
4.2. Phn tch tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh
Bng 4: Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung
bnh ti HN
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
250
-------------+-----------------------------F( 1,
248) =
22.42
Model | 17989726.5
1 17989726.5
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual |
198963671
248 802272.867
R-squared
= 0.0829
-------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0792
Total |
216953397
249 871298.785
Root MSE
=
895.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol_year |
3.637118
.7680795
4.74
0.000
2.124327
5.149909
_cons |
1023.936
74.63793
13.72
0.000
876.9306
1170.941
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of obs
F( 1,
293)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
295
4.66
0.0316
0.0157
0.0123
1159.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol |
1.143923
.5297997
2.16
0.032
.1012281
2.186619
_cons |
1287.619
105.1137
12.25
0.000
1080.746
1494.493
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
45
Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy quan h gia lng tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh v thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi c ngha mc tin cy 95% c hai thnh ph vi gi tr
t ln v gi tr P nh. H Ni mi quan h gia hai bin ny cht hn. Khi thu nhp
tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm tng khong 3,63 n v.
Mi quan h gia 2 bin ny TP HCM mc d c ngha thng k nhng khng ln
lm, Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm ch tng
1,14 n v.
II. KT QU IU TRA QUN GII KHT
1. c im qun
Theo kt qu iu tra cc qun c ph, cc qun c ph H Ni ra i sm hn TP
HCM. C th H Ni, cc qun ra i cch y khong 12 nm, trong khi TP HCM,
cc qun ra i cch y khong 4 nm.
V mt quy m, qun H Ni nh hn TP HCM. Ti H Ni, din tch trung bnh ca
qun khong 100m2. Mi qun c khong 26 bn v 9 nhn vin phc v. Cn ti TP
HCM, din tch trung bnh ca mi qun rng gn gp i qun H Ni, khong
175m2. Trung bnh mi qun TP HCM c khong 56 bn vi 23 nhn vin.
Cc qun c ph TP HCM bn cc loi mt hng a dng hn H Ni. Ti H Ni,
trung bnh cc qun ch bn khong 9 loi nc gii kht. Cn ti TP HCM, cc qun bn
trung bnh ti 40 loi.
i tng khch hng ca cc qun c 2 thnh ph gm nhiu thnh phn: thanh nin,
sinh vin, cn b, gii kinh doanh. Khch hng H Ni ch yu l sinh vin, thanh
nin, cn b. Ti TPHCM, nhm khch hng ch yu l thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh
doanh.
Hnh 42: Doanh thu ca cc qun c ph ti hai thnh ph (1000/qun/nm)
2004
2002
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
H Ni
H Ch Minh
46
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
H Ni
TP HCM
Lng mua c ph cng khc bit gia cc quy m qun. Cc qun c ph ln mua trung
bnh 122 kg, ln gp gn 2 ln qun c ph trung bnh v gp 10 ln qun c ph quy m
nh.
Hnh 44: Lng mua c ph ti 2 TP theo loi qun (kg/nm)
47
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ln
Trung bnh
Nh
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Lng cc bn/ngy
H Ni
TP HCM
Theo iu tra ca Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn i vi 2000 khch hng trong v ngoi
qun c ph th trong s cc loi ung, c ph ng vai tr kh quan trng. H ung 7
ln/tun. Trong s cc loi nc ung ti qun, c ti 43% s khch c hi ti qun
ung c ph.
Bi
c
i kh
Lo
t
khi
N
c
tin h
S
a
Tr
a q
u
N
c
ho
ph
C
c
ng
a/
th
c u
c
ng
N h
49
100
80
60
40
20
0
T.Nguyen
Vina
TPHCM
Nes
Ha Noi
Cafe BMT
Da Nang
Mehyco
Me Trang
Can Tho
50
CHNG IV.
KT LUN V KHUYN NGH
1. Kt lun
C ph c ngha quan trng i vi nhiu quc gia trn th gii. V mt kinh t, ngnh
hng c ph ng gp trung bnh 20% tng kim ngch xut khu cho nhiu nc sn xut
c ph. V mt x hi, sn xut v bun bn c ph gip to cng n vic lm cho hng
chc triu ngi trn th gii, gip gim t l i ngho, bt bnh ng ca nhiu quc
gia. Hn th na, c ph cn l biu tng, nim am m ca nhiu ni th gii. l
thi k hong kim ca c ph khi gi ln cao n nh im. Tuy nhin, khi th trng c
ph ri vo khng hong na cui thp k 90 th k XX, gi c ph th gii xung n
mc thp k lc trong vng 4 thp k qua, nh hng nghim trng n li ch ngnh c
ph ni chung v hng chc triu ngi tham gia vo chui ngnh hng c ph. Mt
nguyn nhn quan trng dn n cuc khng hong ny l s mt cn bng cung cu c
ph th gii. Khi gi tng mnh t ngt do Brazin mt ma ln v sng mui, hng lot
nc sn xut c ph c bit l nc sn xut c ph Robusta nh Vit Nam m rng
din tch trng c ph t, sn lng c ph tng nhanh trong khi cu tiu th c ph cc
nc trn th gii vo thi im hu nh khng thay i. Trong nhng nm gn y,
tc tng cu tiu th c ph trong nc t khong 1,5%/nm, c bit l cc nc
xut khu c ph nh Brazin, Indonesia v n . Cu tiu th c ph ca Brazil nm
2004 t ti 4,01 kg/ngi/nm, mc cao nht k t thp nin 60. Nh vy, Brazil c th
ch ng c ngun tiu th c ph, ngay c trong nhng thi im gi th gii xung
thp. l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin cho nhm nghin cu Vin Chnh sch
v Chin lc PTNNNT tin hnh nghin cu tiu th c ph trong nc ti 2 thnh ph
ln, xc nh xu th, thi quen v tim nng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam, trn c s
xut ra mt s chnh sch v chin lc tng cng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam.
1.1. iu tra h gia nh
51
52
53
Gii tr, gii kinh doanh (ch trng c ph bt, cht lng cao, c hng v
HCM),
54
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Surendra Kotecha, 2001, Commentary: The1st ICO World Conference and Report
of Proceedings
55