H THNG CC CNG THC

PHC V N TP HC PHN PHN TCH ---------o0o---------

1. Gi tr thi gian ca tin

Tnh FV

FV ca 1 $

Tnh li theo thng

Tnh li theo ngy

FV(n,r) PV
Tnh PV

= (1+r)n/365

2. Mc sinh li v ri ro
Cng thc tnh mc sinh li tng i: (Pt - Pt-1 ) + Dt Rt =
=

Pt-1

Mc sinh li trong mt khong thi gian V mc sinh li bnh qun lu k hng nm s l:

Rt = (1+R1) x (1+ R2) x (1+R3) x ...x (1+Rt-1)x (1+Rt) - 1

Rbq =

(1 + R1) x (1 + R2) x (1 + R3) x ...x (1 + Rt - 1)x (1 + Rt) 1

Mc sinh li nm Rn = (1+Rm)12/m - 1 Mc sinh li thc t v mc sinh li danh ngha R=r+h Mc sinh li bnh qun R = R1 + R2 + R3 +....+ Rt t

Ri ro

Var (R) =

(R1- R)2 + (R2 - R )2+ (R3 - R)2....+ (Rt- R)2 T

Sinh li d kin ca 1 chng khon E (R) = p1R1 + p2R2 +.. .. .. + ptRt Sinh li d kin ca 1 danh mc

Ri ro d kin ca 1 chng khon

Ri ro d kin ca 1 danh mc

Ri ro d kin ca 1 danh mc gm 2 chng khon

3. Phn tch ti chnh

H s thanh khon a. H s thanh ton hin ti: Thanh ton hin ti = Tng ti sn lu ng Tng n ngn hn

b. H s vn lu ng rng Vn lu ng rng = Tng TSL - Tng n ngn hn. c. H s kh nng thanh ton nhanh (th Axt). Kh nng thanh ton nhanh = (Tng TSL - Tn kho) Tng n ngn hn

d. H s lu chuyn tin t: LCTT = Li nhun rng (hay l) + Khu hao. e. H s tin t: H s tin t = (Tin mt + Chng khon kh mi) N ngn hn

H s hot ng a. K thu hi n trung bnh:

K thu hi n trung bnh

Khon phi thu

Doanh s bn chu hng nm/360 ngy b. Thanh ton trung bnh: Thanh ton trung bnh = Khon phi tr Doanh s bn chu trong nm/360 ngy

c. H s hng lu kho: Hng lu kho = Gi tr hng bn (gi mua) Gi tr hng lu kho trung bnh

d. H s lun chuyn hng ho (vng quay hng tn kho): Vng quay hng tn kho = Doanh thu thun Tn kho

H s thu nhp tr li nh k:

H s thu nhp tr li nh k H s trang tri a. H s trang tri chung: Trang tri chung =

EBIT Chi ph tr li

Cc ngun thu tin mt Tng phi tr

b. H s thanh ton li tri phiu: Thanh ton li tri phiu = EBIT Tng tri tc hng nm

c. H s thanh ton c tc u i: Thanh ton c tc u i = Li nhun rng C tc u i

d. H s hon vn c phiu thng: Li nhun rng - C tc u Hon vn c phiu thng = i Vn c ng

Kh nng sinh li: a. H s tng li nhun: Tng li nhun = Doanh s bn - Tr gi hng bn Doanh s bn

b. H s li nhun hot ng: Li nhun hot ng c. Mc li rng: Mc li rng = Li nhun rng Doanh s = EBIT Doanh thu

d. Li nhun trn vn c phn (ROE): ROE = Li nhun rng Vn c phn

e. Li nhun trn ti sn (ROA): ROA = EBIT Tng ti sn

g. Li nhun trn u t (ROI): ROI = = Li nhun rng Tng ti sn x Doanh s thc Tng ti sn

Li nhun rng Doanh s thc

h. Li nhun mi c phiu (EPS): EPS = Li nhun rng - Tng c tc u i Tng c phiu thng

i. EPS gim bt: Li nhun rng (khng phi tr li TP chuyn i) = Tng tri phiu chuyn i / Gi chuyn i k. Gi trn li nhun (P/E): EPS gim bt P/E = Th gi EPS

a. T l tri phiu: T l tri phiu = Tng mnh gi cc tri phiu Tng vn di hn

b. T l c phiu u i: T l c phiu u i = Tng mnh gi ca c phiu u i Tng vn di hn

c. T l c phiu thng: T l c phiu thng = Vn c ng Tng vn di hn

d. T s n trn vn c phn (D/E). D/E = Tri phiu + C phiu u i Vn c phn

T l ny phn nh mi tng quan gia n di hn v vn c phn. N c s dng nh gi mc tin cy ca cng ty. Cc cng ty c thu nhp ph thuc vo chu k kinh t thng c h s D/E thp. e. H s N di hn trn Tng ti sn: g. T s n: T s n = Tng n Tng ngun vn

* nh gi thu nhp: a. H s chi tr c tc: H s chi tr c tc = C tc b. H s li tc hin thi: Li tc hin thi = C tc Th gi c phiu

4. nh gi c phiu
M hnh chit khu c tc

TH1: C tc tng trng hng nm theo mt t l g khng i DIV(t+1) = DIV(t) x (1 + g)

P (0 ) =
DIV( 0 )( 1 + g )
T 1+ g 1 1+ k

k g

Vi gi nh n->, trong khi r >g>0, gi c phiu s l:

P0 =

DIV 1 k g

TH2: M hnh tng trng c tc 2 giai on

P(0) =
T T D(0)(1+ g1) 1+ g1 1+ g1 D(0)(1+ g2 ) + 1 k g1 1+ k 1+ k k g2

T s gi/li nhun: P/E - Trailing P/E = (Gi th trng ca mt c phiu)/ EPS ca 12 thng trc)

trailing P/E =
-

P0 (D0 / E0 ) (1 + g ) (1 b )(1 + g ) . = = E0 kg kg

Leading P/E = (Gi th trng mt c phiu / (EPS d bo ca 12 thng ti)

leading P/E =

(D1 / E1 ) = (1 b ) P0 = E1 kg kg

PEG = (P/E)/(GEPS)

(1+ g)n (T l chi tr c tc)(1+ g) 1n (1+ ke,hg ) (T lchi trc tcn )(1+ g)n (1+ gn ) + PEG = g(ke,hg g) g(ke,st gn )(1+ ke,hg )n
c lng g

g = ROE x (1 T l chi tr c tc)

TNST - C tc TNST Doanh thu Ti sn

g=

x
TNST Doanh thu

x
Ti sn

x
VCSH

c lng t l chit khu (k)

T l chit khu = LS phi ri ro + (H s bta x Phn b ri ro th trng)

E(Ri ) = Rf + [E(RM ) - Rf ] i
Nu cng ty pht hnh c c phiu ln tri phiu th k cn c xc nh theo phng php chi ph vn bnh qun gia quyn (WACC) nh sau:

k=

ke

E D + kd (1 t) D+ E D+ E

5. nh gi tri phiu 1) Coupon

PV = PV(Li) + PV(Mnh gi) =

(1 + r )
t =1

Li

Mnh gi (1 + r ) n

Nu 1 nm tr li 2 ln:
PV = PV(Li) + PV(Mnh gi) =

t =1

Li 1+ r 2

Mnh gi n 1+ r 2

2)

Tri phiu Zero Coupon

P V = P V ( M n h g i ) =

M n h g i (1 + r ) n

3)

Tri phiu c li sut bin i

PV =

Dng tin ti thi dim t 1 + r t t t =1 2

4. Consols
PV =

Dng tin ti thi dim t (1 + r ) t t =1 = Dng tin ti thi dim t r

Gi tr ca tri phiu gia hai ngy tr coupon

P=
t =1

(1 + r ) (1 + r )
w

t 1

(1 + r ) (1 + r )
w

n 1

Li thuc v ngi bn Ngy tr coupon trc

Li thuc v ngi mua

Ngy thc hin mua bn TP

Ngy tr coupon sp ti

S ngy t thi im chuyn nhng TP n ngy tr coupon sp ti H s giai on (w) = S ngy trong 2 k tr coupon Dng tin d tnh Gi tr hin ti ti thi im t = (1+i)t-1 + w

Par

Discount

Coupon Rate = Current Yield = YTM Coupon Rate < Current Yield < YTM Coupon Rate > Current Yield > YTM
Premium Thi gian o hn bnh qun

C (t ) (1t+ y)t D = t =1 = n Ct (1 + y)t t =1

n

t PV (C )
t t =1

PV

% Thay i gi =

H s Macaulay % Thay li sut 100

1+ y

Thi gian o hn bnh qun iu chnh

n 1 C t + n . VN n dy . t . n (1 + y ) (1 + y )t t =1 (1 + y ) dP ( 0 ) = P (0) P (0)
dP ( 0 ) / dy P (0) = 1 Du = - Modified duration (1 + y )

Thi hn hon tr trung bnh iu chnh = Thi hn hon tr trung bnh ca Macaulay / (1+y)

i vi Coupon

MD =

C n M y C n 1 (1 + y ) + (1 + y )n +1 y2
10

li
2 1 P = 2 2 y (1 + y )

(t + t )
2 t =1

CF t t (1 + y )

d 2 P 1 n t ( t + 1) C n ( n + 1) M 1 = + 2 t+2 d y P t = 1 (1 + y ) (1 + y ) n + 2 P
% thay i gi = 1/2 ( li) x thay i li sut

6. Qun l danh mc u t
Tnh ngi ri ro
Mi tng quan gia mc ngi ri ro, li sut c tnh (doanh li) vi mc ri ro:

U = E ( r ) 0,5 A 2
Phn loi cc nh u t:

Trung dung vi ri ro: A = 0 Thch ri ro: A < 0

nh gi danh mc

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