D on ca Johor sng Tham s cht lng nc Mng thn kinh nhn to (Prediction of Johor River Water Quality Parameters

Using Artificial Neural Networks) Tm tt Nc l quan trng i vi tt c cc kha cnh ca s tn ti ca con ngi v h sinh thi v sc khe. V vy, cht lng ca n cng rt quan trng. Cht lng nc dng ch thnh phn ca mu nc. Cc gii thch cc d liu c th c kh khn v lu di. nh gi ca cc thng s cht lng nc l cn thit tng cng hiu sut ca mt hot ng nh gi v pht trin tt hn qun l ti nguyn nc v k hoch. M hnh cht lng nc lin quan n vic d bo nhim nc bng cch s dng cc k thut m phng ton hc. Trong thc t, c in da trn qu trnh phng php tip cn m hnh c th cung cp d on tng i tt cho cc thng s cht lng nc; Tuy nhin, nhng m hnh da trn d liu di v rt nhiu yu cu d liu u vo thng xuyn khng r. Phng php tip cn mi nh cc k thut tr tu nhn to chng minh kh nng ca h v p dng cho m phng v m hnh ha cc hin tng vt l khc nhau trong nc k thut lnh vc. B sung, mng thn kinh nhn to (ANN) nm bt c nhng hnh vi khng gian v khng n nh trong vn iu tra bng cch s dng kin trc ca n v tnh cht phi tuyn tnh so vi cc k thut m hnh c in khc. Johor lu vc sng nm trong tiu bang Johor, Malaysia l ng k lm gim do hot ng ca con ngi cng nh qu trnh th ha v trong khu vc. Nghin cu hin ti D on ca Johor sng Tham s cht lng nc S dng cc mng thn kinh nhn to c d on cc thng s cht lng nc ti lu vc sng Johor s dng ANN ngi mu. Nghin cu ny xut mt m hnh d bo cho tng cht rn ha tan, in dn in, v c. Kt qu cho thy ANN m hnh d bo xut mt tim nng ln m phng v d on tng cht rn ha tan, dn in, v c vi li c ngha l tuyt i 10% i vi cc c quan nc khc nhau. T kha: Cht lng nc d on, Johor lu vc sng, mng thn kinh nhn to 1.Gii thiu Cht lng nc nh hng trc tip n hu nh tt c s dng nc. C sng st, gii tr a dng v tng trng; cc hot ng nh bi li v cho thuyn, ngun cung cp nc, thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng, cng nghip, v t nhn, nng nghip s dng nh ti nc ti tiu v chn nui gia sc, x l cht thi, v chung thm m, tt c u b nh hng bi cc iu kin vt l, ha hc, sinh hc, v vi sinh vt tn ti trong knh rch v trong di b mt tng ngm nc. Suy gim cht lng nc thng gy ra xung t trong mt lu vc, ch cn bi v cht lng nc b suy thoi c ngha l s dng mong mun l khng th hoc khng an ton (Heathcote, 1998). Malaysia l mt nc ang pht trin hng ti tm nhn 2020. Tht khng may l pht trin c tin hnh trong c nc cng gp phn tc ng xu n mi trng c bit l cht lng nc. Vn ny tr nn nhy cm, khng ch nh hng n con ngi sc khe, m cn ton b mi trng pht trin khng ch nh hng n cht lng nc, m cn thy sn sng sng trong . Quyt nh sinh thi v x hi chp nhn c nht l kh khn lm cho m khng cn thn m hnh, d bo v phn tch cht lng nc sng pht trin in hnh kch bn. D bo cht lng nc cho php mt ngi qun l la chn mt ty chn p ng s lng ln ca xc nh iu kin. V d, thng s cht lng nc, chng hn nh cht rn ha tan, in dn in

v c trong nc m t mt qu trnh phc tp chi phi bi mt s lng ng k thy vn, thy ng lc hc, v iu khin sinh thi hot ng ti mt lot cc patiotemporal quy m. Ngun ca cc ph gia thng khng c th c xc nh r rng, v chu nh hng cc b phc tp khi lng trao i gia cc bin c th khng c bit n Do nhng tng quan v tng tc gia cc thng s cht lng nc, n l th v iu tra liu mt c ch tn min c th v m hnh quan st tn ti chng minh kh nng d bo ca cc bin ny. Vic xc nh cc m hnh d bo nh vy l c bit hu ch cho sinh thi hc v mi trng, k t khi h s c th d on mc nhim nc v mt cc bin php phng cn thit trc. Phng php tip cn m hnh c in da trn qu trnh c th cung cp c tnh cc thng s cht lng nc, nhng h thng qu chung chung c p dng trc tip m khng c mt qu trnh hiu chnh d liu di. H thng yu cu xp x ca cc qu trnh khc nhau, v nhng xp x ny c th b qua mt s yu t quan trng nh hng n cc qu trnh trong nc. Mt m hnh da trn qu trnh i hi rt nhiu d liu u vo v cc thng s m hnh thng khng r, trong khi cc k thut hng d liu cung cp mt gii php thay th hiu qu m hnh da trn qu trnh thng thng. M hnh pht trin k thut theo nh hng bi cc d liu c tnh ton rt nhanh v yu cu cc thng s u vo t hn hn so vi cc m hnh da trn qu trnh. Cc k thut m hnh iu khin d liu tr nn ph bin trong 20 nm. Cc cng ng khoa hc v k thut c c kinh nghim c m rng trong pht trin v s dng cc k thut hng d liu. Gn y, cc ng dng ca ANNs trong cc lnh vc k thut nc, cc khoa hc sinh thi, v khoa hc mi trng c bo co k t u nhng nm 1990. Trong nhng nm gn y, ANNs c s dng mnh m d on v d bo trong mt s lnh vc lin quan n nc, bao gm c nghin cu ti nguyn nc (Liong et al, 1999, 2001;. Muttil v Chu nm 2006, El-Shafie et al, 2008),hi dng hc (Makarynskyy nm 2004), v mi trng khoa hc (Grubert, 2003).Vic s dng cc k thut hng d liu cho m hnh ha cht lng ca c nc ngt (Chen v Mynett, 2003) v nc bin (Lee et al, 2000, 2003) p ng vi s thnh cng trong thp k qua. Reckhow (1999) nghin cu cc m hnh xc sut mng Bayesian hng dn quyt nh lm cho nc lin quan n 424 Ali Najah, Ahmed Elshafie, Othman A. Karim v Othman Jaff cht lng trong sng Neuse Bc Carolina. Chu (2006) xem xt s pht trin v hin ti tin ca s tch hp ca tr tu nhn to (AI) vo m hnh cht lng nc. JA Bowers (2000) pht trin m hnh d on cht rn l lng conceder ma a phng, T l dng chy v c nh l u vo. Hatim (2007) s dng mt cch tip cn ANN bng cch s dng su bin cho d on ban u ca cht rn l lng trong dng p ti Mamasin. Hu ht trong s h s dng gn nh tt c cc mi trng c th cc thng s nh cc bin u vo m khng xem xt s la chn ti u trong . Cc nghin cu ny c gng m hnh Johor lu vc sng thng s cht lng nc s dng ANN m hnh ln u tin. D liu cht lng nc hn ch v chi ph cao ca gim st cht lng nc thng gy ra nghim trng vn cho cc phng php m hnh ha da trn qu trnh. ANNs cung cp mt ty chn c bit tt, bi v chng c tnh ton rt nhanh v i hi nhiu thng s u vo t hn v iu kin u vo hn xc nh m hnh. ANNs, tuy nhin, i hi mt h bi ln ca d liu i din cho o to. ANNs c, tuy nhin vn khng c s dng rng ri cng c trong cc lnh vc d

bo cht lng nc v d bo. ANNs l c th gn ng chnh xc phc tp, phi tuyn tnh u ra u vo mi quan h. Ging nh cc i tc da trn vt l m hnh s ca h, ANNs yu cu o to hoc hiu chun. Sau khi o to, mi ng dng ca ANN c o to l mt c tnh ca mt i s n gin biu hin vi h s c bit n v c thc hin trn thc t ngay lp tc. K thut ANN linh hot thch ng vi cc hn ch b sung c th pht sinh trong ng dng. Hn na, Cc m hnh ANN c th tit l mi quan h n trong d liu lch s, do to iu kin thun li cho vic d on v d bo cht lng nc. Bi vit ny th hin cc ng dng ANNs m hnh cc gi tr ca nc sng c la chn thng s cht lng, c cc qu trnh nng ng v phc tp n trong cc d liu gim st bn thn. Trong .Ngoi ra, mc tiu ca nghin cu ny l iu tra xem n c th d on cc gi tr ca nc thng s cht lng o bng chng trnh gim st cht lng nc; nhim v ny l kh quan trng i vi cho php gim st c chn lc cc thng s cht lng nc. 2.Vt liu v phng php 2.1. Khu vc nghin cu v d liu cht lng nc Johor l bang ln th hai bn o Malaysia vi din tch 18.941 km2. Johor sng xem xt cc con sng chnh Johor. Con sng ny chy theo mt hng gn Bc-Nam v vo Johor. Cht lng nc sng ca Johor b suy thoi vi mc ngy cng tng ca nhiu cht nhim. Bn cnh , n vn tn ti c silted v chocked bi rc, cht thi nh mt h qu ca lu tr ca vic thc thi ca a phng chnh quyn. Nhng cht gy nhim ny cui cng chy vo sng Johor Ca sng, l nhng thi quen phong ph cung cp sinh sn v cc khu vc thc n cho c v gia cm. Trong bi bo ny, mt nghin cu v m hnh ANN d on tng cht rn ha tan, dn in v c trong Johor lu vc sng c trnh by. Nhng thng s cht lng nc c o ba mi mu trong thi gian 1998-2002 dng chnh (S1) v nhnh (S2) nh th hin trong (Hnh 1). Cc phm vi tp trung ca cc tham s cht lng nc trong lnh vc m hnh c a ra trong bng 1. nhng m hnh c th c s dng nh mt cng c d bo. D on ca Johor sng Tham s cht lng nc S dng cc mng thn kinh nhn to Hnh 1: Bn hin th cc thit lp a l ca khu vc kho st hin nay vi hai trm gim st lnh vc [Johor sng (S1), Sayong River (S2)].

Bng 1: c tnh cht lng nc trong lnh vc m hnh ANN o trong giai on 19982002 trong Johor Sng v nhnh ca n. Cc thng s ti a v tr n v ti thiu trung bnh SD Dn ms / cm 37,8 127,0 56,4 17,5 T. D. cht rn mg / l 18 72 30,5 10,9 c NTU 43 312 109,3 71,3 chnh dng (S1) Tng s cht rn mg / l 35 164 79,8 36,0 Dn ms / cm 39 136 77,1 21,3 T. D. cht rn mg / l 25 60 37,2 9,5 c NTU 28 310 111,5 91,1 nhnh (S2) Tng s cht rn mg / l 44 242 99,7 63,7

2.2.M hnh Neural Network ngn gn, chng ti khng tho lun v cc chi tit ca phng php mng thn kinh v thay vo tham kho c cc giy t ca Lek et al. (1996b) v Olden v Jackson (2001) cho ton din hn phng php iu tr. Ni chung, cc m hnh d bo c th c chia thnh thng k v th cht da trn cch tip cn. Phng php thng k xc nh mi quan h gia cc b d liu lch s, trong khi vt l da trn phng php tip cn m hnh cc qu trnh c bn trc tip. Perceptron a lp (MLP) mng (Rumelhart et

al, 1986) lin quan cht ch vi cc m hnh thng k v l loi ANN ph hp vi cc ng dng d bo. Khi s dng ANNs d bo, trit l m hnh ha c tuyn dng tng t nh c s dng trong phng php tip cn truyn thng thng k. Trong c hai trng hp, m hnh khng rcc thng s (v d, trng lng kt ni trong trng hp ca ANNs) c iu chnh c c sn phm tt nht ph hp gia mt b lch s ca u vo m hnh v kt qu u ra tng ng. Nhng mng li thn kinh thng c s dng trong cc nghin cu sinh thi, bi v h ang xut approximators ph qut ca bt k chc nng lin tc (Hornik v White, 1989). N bao gm t nht ba hoc nhiu lp, trong bao gm mt lp u vo, lp u ra v mt s lp n (Hnh 2). Mi t bo thn kinh trong mt lp c kt ni vi cc t bo thn kinh trong cc lp tip theo, trong khi khng c kt ni gia cc n v Ca cng mt lp (Kasabov 1996). O s lng t bo thn kinh trong mi lp c th khc nhau ty thuc vo vn . Tng hp c trng s ca cc thnh phn u vo c tnh nh (Freeman et al 1991.):

ni l tng trng lng ca t bo thn kinh th j cho cc d liu u vo nhn c t cc lp trc vi cc t bo thn kinh n, l trng lng gia cc t bo thn kinh th v t bo thn kinh th trong lp trc, x l u ra ca cc t bo thn kinh th trong lp trc v l mt thut ng thin v ca cc t bo thn kinh th. cc u ra ca cc t bo thn kinh th outj tnh vi mt chc nng sigmoid nh sau:

Vic o to ca mng c thc hin bng cch iu chnh trng lng. Qu trnh o to thc hin thng qua mt s lng ln b o to v o to chu k (k nguyn). Mc tiu chnh ca th tc tm cc thit lp ti u ca trng lng, m trong mt trng hp l tng c th sn xut quyn u ra cho cc u vo tng i. u ra ca mng l so snh vi mt phn ng mong mun xc nh mt li. Hiu sut ca MLP c o trong iu khon ca mt tn hiu mong mun v tiu ch cho hi t. i vi mt mu, n c xc nh bi cc li vung tng hp (SSE), c th hin nh:

T ra (mc tiu) mong mun u ra v u ra ca gi tr mng li thn kinh, tng ng, th sn lng t bo thn kinh v s lng t bo thn kinh trong lp u ra. Ngoi ra, li ny (E) v c ngha l tuyt i li (MAE) c nh ngha nh sau, tng ng.

2.3.Hn ch v m hnh cu trc Trong mt ANN, mt trong nhng nhim v ch yu l xc nh cc bin s u vo m hnh nh hng ng k n cc sn lng bin (s). S la chn ca cc bin u vo ni chung l da trn mt kin thc tin nghim ca quan h nhn qu bin, thanh tra thng k phn tch cc yu t u vo v u ra tim nng. S la chn ca cc bin u vo cc m hnh mng thn kinh hin nay l da trn mt phn tch tng quan thng k ca cc d liu hin trng, chnh xc d bo cc thng s cht lng nc, v kin thc min. Chng ti nhn thy rng, nh mong i, c mi tng quan gia cc thng s khc nhau. Chng ti bit rng dn in ca nc, l kt qu ca nng cht rn ha tan (m ch yu l mui). B sung, rng s gia tng cht rn l lng trong nc trc tip nh hng n v o lng c, gy ra nc c. Hnh 3.a, b cung cp cho mt v d v mt mnh ca mt mi tng quan cc cp ca cc bin. D on ca Johor sng Tham s cht lng nc S dng cc mng thn kinh nhn to Hnh 2: Mt kin trc a lp in hnh perceptron ANN

C la chn cc bin u vo thch hp, cc bc tip theo xy dng cc m hnh theo cc thng s c la chn.Mng li thn kinh phn tch c thc hin bng cch s dng mt my tnh c nhn trong cc ngn ng lp trnh Matlab bng vn bn ca cc tc gi.Cc phn sau y tho lun v nhng kin trc s dng d on cc thng s cht lng nc, c lp cho mi tham s. Hnh 3: Scatter s m t mi tng quan gia cc cp kt qu t bin (a) mi tng quan gia cc cp ca cc bin dng chnh v tng quan (b) gia cc cp ca cc bin nhnh.

2.3.1.Tng s cht rn ha tan mu Cc m hnh ANN c pht trin m phng v d bo cc cht rn ha tan Tng s (TDS) ti Johor sng (station1) v ph lu ca n (station2), Malaysia. N c s dng mt kin trc ANN BP cho c hai trm vi hai lp n vi chc nng chuyn giao khc nhau v qui chun Bayesian l mt chc nng o to (Hnh 4). Cc chc nng thc hin l 0,7 c s dng c c nhng kt qu tt nht. Tng cht rn ha tan o quan trng hn c xem xt khi kim tra cht lng nc. TDS bao gm cc mui v c v mt lng nh cc cht hu c c ha tan trong nc. N xc nh s ph hp ca nc dng cho mc ch nng nghip. Hnh 4: Kin trc ca ANN. a) dng chnh v b) nhnh.

Tng cht rn ha tan d dng o c tr trong iu kin c kim sot trong phng th nghim c uy tn, v n c tm thy c mi tng quan tch cc tn ti gia dn in v vt liu ha tan ti Miami sng i (Wang Xinhao et al., 997), do ANN m hnhc s dng trong bi bo ny m phng v d on cc cht rn ha tan tng s vi cc d liu dn in nh l u vo ch.N c tm thy rng tng s cht rn ha tan c ngha tng quan vi dn in ( nhnh. ) dng chnh v

2.3.2. Dn mu in Cc m hnh ANN c pht trin m phng v d bo dn in (EC) ti Johor sng (sation1) v ph lu ca n (station2), Malaysia. N c s dng mt kin trc ANN BP cho c hai trm vi hai lp n vi chc nng chuyn giao khc nhau v qui chun Bayesian l mt chc nng o to (Hnh 5). Cc chc nng thc hin l 0,7 c s dng c c nhng kt qu tt nht. Dn in c kt hp vi cc thng s cht lng nc ch yu do hiu ng pha long dng chy, n c th c s dng nh mt ch s cht lng nc ni chung. Thay i quan trng trong dn sau c th l mt ch bo rng mt x hoc mt s ngun nhim khc bc vo mt dng. Cc vn c bn c dn in l qu nhiu mui trong nc. Mt mi tng quan cao c tm thy gia dn in v cc cht rn ha tan, c bit trong cc h mn cao. N c tm thy rng dn in tng quan ng k vi cht rn ha tan ( ) c hai trm. Hnh 5: Cc kin trc ca ANN. a) dng chnh v b) nhnh.

2.3.3. c mu Cc m hnh ANN c pht trin m phng c ti Johor sng (sation1) v ph lu ca n (station2), Malaysia. N l ni rng cc phng php c m t trong phn ny cp n cc gia nh c in ca mt lp n, thc n chn nui chuyn tip mng thn kinh c o to bi cc thut ton truyn li (Rumelhart et al, 1986). Nhng mng li thn kinh thng c s dng trong cc nghin cu sinh thi bi v h ang xut c xp x ph qut ca bt k chc nng lin tc (Hornik v White, 1989). Chc nng chuyn giao khc nhau v cc qui chun Bayesian nh l mt chc nng kch hot c s dng (Hnh 6). Cc chc nng thc hin l 0,7 c s dng c c nhng kt qu tt nht. Hnh 6: Kin trc ca ANN. dng chnh v nhnh

Hip hi Y t cng cng Hoa K xc nh c l ti sn quang hc ca nc, lm cho nh sng c phn tn v hp th ch khng phi l truyn.nh sng tn x do cc ht bi l lng trong khi hu ht hp th do cc cht ha tan. c cao c th gy tr ngi cho kh trng v cung cp mt phng tin cho s pht trin ca vi khun. c c th

c hiu qu c s dng nh mt ch s v tng pht pho v cht rn l lng nng trong sui (Grayson et al, 1996).K t c l cht ch lin quan n tng cht rn l lng (TSS), do m hnh ANN c s dng trong bi bo ny m phng cc c vi tng cht rn l lng d liu nh l u vo duy nht.N c tm thy rng c ng k tng quan vi tng cht rn b nh ch ( tng quan dng chnh ( 2.4. D liu phn vng Cc d liu trong cc mng thn kinh c phn loi thnh hai b: o to hoc b hc tp, v b kim tra th nghim hoc overfitting. Cc thit lp hc tp c s dng xc nh cc iu chnh trng lng v nhng thnh kin ca mt mng. Cc thit lp th nghim c s dng cho hiu chun, trong ngn chn cc mng tp luyn qu sc. Cch tip cn chung la chn o to tt t chui d liu c sn lin quan n vic bao gm tt c cc s kin cc k (tc l tt c cc ti thiu c th v cc gi tr ti a trong tp hun luyn). Cc thit lp th nghim overfitting nn bao gm mt tp hp d liu i din. iu quan trng l phn chia cc tp hp d liu theo cch nh vy m c hai o to v overfitting kim tra d liu thng k so snh. Cc thit lp th nghim nn c khong 10-40% kch thc ca o to tp hp d liu. Trong bi bo ny, chng ti trnh by hai cch tip cn la chn d liu c s dng xy dng v nh gi cc m hnh. Trong phng php tip cn u tin, cc d liu cht lng nc c chia thnh hai nhm. Tp u tin c 70% cc h s v c s dng nh l mt tp o to, cc kim tra th hai c 30% cc h s v c s dng nh mt thit lp th nghim overfitting. Mt cp vector vi mt hoc nhiu php o mt tch khng th c s dng o to mt m hnh, v mt vector u vo vi mt php o mt tch khng th c nh gi bi mt pht trin m hnh. V vy, hiu qu ca vic thc hin mt m hnh mng thn kinh l rt cao ph thuc vo s lng, phm vi lch s, v cht lng ca d liu c s dng cho s pht trin ca n. Trong cc m hnh ANN, vic thc hin tp hun luyn v th nghim l khng th chp nhn c do nhiu mu nhn bn c tm thy. Gi tr cc oan hn na c tm thy trong cc mu khng hp l theo cc tiu chun cht lng nc quc gia i vi Malaysia, v d nh ti a. gi tr ca c ti nh ga 1 & 2 312 NTU, 310 NTU tng ng, trong khi trong cc tiu chun cht lng nc quc gia i vi Malaysia ti lp IIB (s dng gii tr vi s tip xc c th), c bng 50NTU. V vy, cc m hnh ANN c thc hin bng cch s dng cc mu b pht sau khi b qua cc gi tr nhn bn v cc oan (cch tip cn th hai). Bng 2 cho thy s lng mu m chng ti chn cho c hai phng php tip cn u tin v th hai. Bng 2: Th hin s lng mu m chng ti chn cho c hai phng php tip cn u tin v th hai ,) nhnh, trong khi

2.5.nh gi thc hin Model K t khi cc thng s nc c trung thc theo di trong vng nm nm, hiu sut ca cc kin trc ANN da trn xut c th c kim tra v nh gi. Nhng bui biu din ca cc m hnh c nh gi bng cch s dng li vung tng hp (SSE) [Eq. (3) v tuyt i c ngha l t l phn trm li. Ngoi ra, hnh nh phn tch d on s phn b li cho tp hun luyn c thc hin kim tra mc thc hin m hnh tng th. V d, cc ng cong o to cho cc cht rn ha tan c th hin trn Hnh 7 cho thy hi t SSE mc tiu ca 0,00001 sau 1200 k nguyn. Hnh 7: o to ng cong cho cc cht rn ha tan

3. Kt qu v tho lun N l iu hin nhin rng vic s dng tt c cc mu xy dng cc m hnh l khng ng k trong vic d on cc thng s cht lng nc. Do , loi b gi tr d phng, ti thiu v ti a c thng qua trong khi pht trin m hnh xem xt cch tip cn th hai. Kin trc ANN-Hnh. 4, 5 v 6 c s dng trong cc nghin cu cung cp d bo cht lng nc ti cc a im xut ca Johor lu vc sng i vi cc th tc c tho lun trong phn trc. Li c ngha l t l phn trm cao nht tuyt i cho TDS tn ti cc nhnh, bng 11,96%. Chng ti thu c kt qu ny sau khi thng qua 35% t cc mu nh gi m hnh. Trong khi t l phn trm li c ngha l tuyt i ti dng chnh l tng ng vi 3,69%. iu ny ng vi cc li t l phn trm c hin th trong hnh. 8. Fig.9 cho thy t l o to v th nghim phn phi ti c hai trm. Mc d t l phn trm mu c s dng th nghim cc m hnh l 27%, c ngha l tuyt i d on

li t c vi ANN ch l 9,7% dng chnh. Trong khi hiu sut ca m hnh ANN c s dng d on EC ti nhnh c nh gi bng cch s dng ch c 34,7% t cc mu nh l mt d liu th nghim. T kt qu l quan st thy rng li c d on c ngha l tuyt i ch c 8,7%. Mc d kch thc d liu c sn l tng i nh, kt qu hp l tt thu c d bo cht lng nc. Nu d liu tr nn c sn, cc phng php tip cn xut cn cung cp d on tt hn Mt iu th v kt qu th hin trong hnh. 8 l m hnh c hin th trong hnh. 6 thng qua d on c kh nng ca mnh m phng c ti dng chnh t hn nhnh. Hn na, mt trong nhng ch s thng k c kim tra nh gi vic thc hin m hnh xut, tuyt i trung bnh d bo Li AMPE.

Trng hp m l s ca mu th nghim, l u ra m hnh cho mi tham s, l gi tr thc t cho mi tham s, i l ch s tham s. N c th c m t t Bng 3 AMPE l t hn 12% cho tt c cc thng s, ngoi tr rng mt trong nhng lin quan n d on cc cht bn dng chnh. L do chnh ca li nh vy d on tng i cao i vi c ti dng chnh l do s ph thuc cao vo cc yu t khc nh dng chy, dng chy, vv ... to, m khng phi l c sn trong khi pht trin nghin cu ny. Tuy nhin, xut m hnh ANN c th t c mc chp nhn c chnh xc d on c trong cc nhnh. Bng 3: D on trung bnh tuyt i Li AMPE trong 6 m hnh ANN

Hnh 8: Li phn phi cho tng cht rn ha tan (a) dng o to chnh (b) kim tra chnh dng (c) o to nhnh (d) kim tra nhnh.

Hnh 9: Li phn phi cho dn in (a) dng o to chnh (b) kim tra dng chnh (c) o to nhnh (d) kim tra nhnh

Hnh 10: Li phn phi cho c (mt) dng o to chnh (b) kim tra dng chnh (c) o to nhnh (d) kim tra nhnh

4.So snh Phn tch i vi phn tch su hn, mt ch s thc hin c th l D on t l li Enhancement (peer) c xc nh bi Eq. 7 c gii thiu. Peer c tnh nh s khc bit gia cc li d on ti a t phng php tip cn u tin v l mt trong nhng tng ng cho phng php th hai chia cho ch. Trng hp u tin v nh bi Eq.8. l li d on ti a cho cc m hnh phng php tip cn l li d on ti a cho cc m hnh tip cn th hai c xc

u cc li ti a.Ch s ny c ngh phn tch v kim tra kh nng ca cc d liu c xut pht thu c gim thiu cc li d on.Kim tra, Bng 4 cn thn, n c th c quan st thy rng cc chnh xc d on l ng k ci thin khi x pht cc mu so snh vi s dng tt c cc mu. N c th c m t rng cc ci thin chnh xc trong cc ba cc thng s ti nh ga 1 & 2 dao ng t 38% n 89% tio to v th nghim m hnh Bng 4: Tm tt cc li d on ti a cho c hai cch tip cn v ng ng%

4.Kt lun Bn tho ny cho thy vic s dng cc m hnh ANN-da trn cht lng nc d bo cc thng s cho Johor sng v nhnh ca n. Ba thng s chnh c nghin cu, dn in, cht rn ha tan v c. 6 kin trc ANN c pht trin (mt cho mi thng s ti mi a im). Trong thc t, ANN xut m hnh i hi khng c kin thc tin nghim ca cc qu trnh vt l t nhin ca cc thng s cht lng nc. Mc d tnh cht ngu nhin ca cc tham s cht lng nc c xut, cc m hnh xut c kh nng bt chc arameters cht lng nc chnh xc vi cc li d on tng i nh. M hnh d on ANN cho thy hiu sut mnh m v ng tin cy trong vic d on dn in, issolved cht rn v cc thng s c vi cc mu d liu u vo khc nhau c s dng trong o to m hnh. Li cm n Cc tc gi mun gi li cm n S Mi trng cho vic cung cp cc d liu cn thit cho vic pht trin nghin cu ny. Nghin cu ny c h tr cp nghin cu cho cc tc gi th hai v th ba t i hc Kebangsaan Malaysia UKM-gup-W-08-13-308.