VIN CHNH SCH V CHIN LC PHT TRIN NNG NGHIP NNG THN TRUNG TM T VN CHNH SCH & QLKT

*************

NGHIN CU TIU TH C PH TRONG NC TI H NI V TP H CH MINH

Nhm nghin cu: Trn Th Qunh Chi Muriel Figue Trn Th Thanh Nhn

H Ni, thng 3/2006

MC LC DANH SCH BIU V BNG LI TA CHNG I: GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU 1. Bi cnh v ngha ca nghin cu 2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu 3. Phng php nghin cu 3.1. Ngun s liu 3.1.1. S liu th cp 3.1.2. S liu s cp 3.2. Phng php phn tch 3.2.1. Phn tch thng k m t 3.2.2. Phng php phn tch kinh t lng 4. Hn ch ca nghin cu CHNG II: TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM I. TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII II. NHNG NT CHNH V TNH HNH TIU TH C PH VIT NAM 1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua s liu iu tra mc sng dn c VHLSS nm 2002 1.1. Khc bit gia nng thn v thnh th 1.2. Khc bit gia cc nhm thu nhp 1.3. Khc bit gia cc vng 2. Tiu th c ph Vit Nam - nhn nh t cc ngun thng tin khc CHNG III: XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI HAI THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH 1. c im h gia nh 1.1 tui

1.2 Trnh gio dc 1.3 Vic lm 1.4 Thu nhp 2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh 2.1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca cc h iu tra. 2.1.1. Tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh. 2.1.2. Tnh hnh c ph c cho/tng nm 2004 2.1.3 C ph mua tng 2.2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca tng c nhn 3. Tnh hnh tiu th ngoi gia nh 4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th ti hai Thnh ph 4.1. Phn tch c ph tiu th trong gia nh 4.2. Phn tch tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh II. KT QU IU TRA QUN 1. c im qun 2. Tnh hnh mua c ph 3. Tnh hnh bn c ph CHNG IV: KT LUN V KHUYN NGH 1. Kt lun 1.1. iu tra h gia nh 1.2. iu tra qun c ph 2. Khuyn ngh SCH THAM KHO

DANH SCH BIU V BNG

LI TA Nghin cu Nghin cu tiu th c ph trong nc ti H Ni v TP H Ch Minh" c hon thnh vi s ng gp ca nhiu t chc c nhn. Trc ht, nhm nghin cu xin chn thnh cm n i S qun Php - D n Tng cng nng lc thng tin phc v cng tc hoch nh chnh sch nng nghip (MISPA) h tr kinh ph trin khai nghin cu ny. Nhm nghin cu xin cm n TS. ng Kim Sn, Vin trng Vin Kinh t Nng nghip gi tng, ng gp kin nhn xt v h tr nhm nghin cu hon tt bo co ny. Ngoi ra, cng xin gi li cm n ti cc cn b Trung tm T vn Chnh sch & QLKT, Trung tm Thng tin Chin lc, D n MISPA v mt s phng ban khc trong Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc Pht trin NN-NT, c bit l c s pha Nam ca IPSARD to iu kin v ng gp kin cho nhm nghin cu. Bo co ny cng khng th hon thin nu thiu s gip , hng dn nhit tnh ca cc chuyn gia thuc t chc CIRAD-Php, c bit l TS. Muriel Figue. Bo co ny c hon thin trong thi gian ngn (6 thng) v iu kin kinh ph hn hp, v vy khng th trnh c thiu st. Nhm nghin cu rt mong nhn c kin ng gp ca bn c tip tc hon thin bo co ny. Xin chn thnh cm n.

CHNG I: GII THIU CHUNG V NGHIN CU 1. Bi cnh v ngha ca nghin cu Kim ngch xut khu c ph c ngha quan trng i vi nhiu nc trn th gii. Gn 1/4 cc nc thuc t chc c ph quc t (ICO) c kim ngch c ph chim khong 20% tng kim ngch xut khu. Nhiu nc, kim ngch xut khu c ph chim t 75% n 80% tng kim ngch xut khu. Hin c khong 125 triu ngi trn th gii sng ph thuc vo cy c ph. Trong mt na sn lng c ph th gii c trng cc trang tri nh vi din tch nh hn 5ha. Ti Chu Phi, t trng ng gp sn lng c ph ch yu do cc h gia nh nh m nhn, chim khong 95%. C ph khng ch c ngha v mt kinh t m cn c ngha to ln v chnh tr nhiu nc trn th gii. S st gim gi c ph ngay lp tc nh hng n thu nhp ca ngi dn nhiu nc, t l ngho i, bt bnh ng v cc ch s kinh t v m khc. T nm 1998 n 2001, t l i ngho ca nng dn lm trong ngnh c ph Nicaragua tng hn 2% trong khi t l ngho i khu vc nng thn nc ny li gim ti 6%, do , chnh ph nhiu nc sn xut c ph mun tham gia vi cc n lc khc nhau nhm mang li s n nh lu di cho th trng c ph thng qua mt s hnh thc hp tc nhm lm cn bng th trng c ph th gii, gp phn tng kim ngch xut khu v n nh thu nhp cho ngi trng c ph. Cy c ph khng ch c ngha v kinh t v chnh tr m cn vt xa hn l biu tng v nim am m ca nhiu ngi, nhiu ni trn th gii. Ngi trng c ph nhiu ni trn th gii coi c ph l biu tng ca qu hng mnh, ni mnh sinh sng. Cy c ph l vt trang tr cho cc trang tri giu c. Trong thi k khng hong gi, nhiu ngi dn c ku gi cht bt cy c ph v chuyn sang cc loi cy trng khc. Nhiu ngi thc hin nhng nhiu ngi khng lm theo. Mt cu ni ni ting v gy xc ng mnh ca mt ngi trng c ph Colombia khi c khuyn co cht b cy c ph "Ti lm vic trang tri ny hn 20 nm v th ct t tay mnh cn hn cht nhng ci cy m ti yu qu v chm sc chng bao nhiu nm nay, c k i k li hng trm ln cc trung tm thng mi c ph trn ton th gii.1 Khi th trng c ph th gii ri vo khng hong trong 4 nm gn y. Gi c ph th gii gim xung mc thp k lc trong vng 40 nm qua, nh hng nghim trng n li ch ngnh c ph ni chung v cc i tng tham gia sn xut, ch bin v tiu th c ph ni ring. Trn th gii c khong 20-25 triu h gia nh, phn ln l h nng dn nh trn tng s trn 50 nc ang pht trin sn xut v bn c ph. Nhiu ngi trong s h phi i mt vi nhng kh khn ln do gi c ph gim mnh. Theo nghin cu ca ICARD, OXFAM Anh v OXFAM Hong Kong nm 2001, mc sng ca hu ht ngi trng c ph k Lk u c xu hng gim, h giu chuyn
1

http://www.math.grin.edu/~khannabh/colombia/coffee.php

xung kh, kh xung trung bnh, trung bnh xung ngho v ngho xung i. Nhiu h khng lng thc n v n ngn hng do vay tin u t vo trng c ph trong nhng nm trc , bnh qun 4,5 triu ng. Nhiu c s thu gom v cc doanh nghip ch bin xut khu c ph ang n ng ngn hng, bnh qun hn 5 t ng. Vit Nam l mt trong s nhng nc chu thit hi nhiu nht t cuc khng hong gi. Mt trong nhng gii php c a ra gim thiu tc hi ca cuc khng hong l tng cng tiu th c ph trong nc. Tng tiu th c ph s gip iu chnh li cn bng cung cu th trng, gip tng gi c ph tr cho ngi sn xut, to c hi tng gi tr gia tng, to cng n vic lm, tng thu v pht trin kinh t ni chung. Trong vng 35 nm qua, cu c ph tng ti 11 ln trong nhng nm gi c ph ln cao. Tuy nhin, mc tng ny khng vt qu hai nm. Hng nm lng tiu th c ph th gii tng trung bnh khong 1 triu bao (Surendra, 2001) V vn ny, c mt s nghin cu cp n, nhng ch yu tp trung vo tiu th trong nc ca cc nc trn th gii. Cho n nay, cha c nghin cu no nh gi c th tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong nc ca Vit Nam nh bnh qun tiu th c ph u ngi ca Vit Nam, xu th tiu th, kh khn trong qu trnh khuyn khch tiu th c ph ... c bit, nghin cu v tm l ngi mua v ngi tiu dng c ph v cc nghin cu marketing khc cha c cc nh sn xut v xut khu c ph Vit Nam quan tm tho ng (Hong Thy Bng, 2003). Nm 2003, cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn, mt trong nhng cng ty ch bin v bun bn c ph trong nc ln nht Vit Nam tin hnh nghin cu (i) tm hiu nhn thc ca ngi tiu dng v thng hiu; (ii) v tr thng hiu Trung Nguyn trong th trng c ph hin nay; (iii) nghin cu s thch tiu dng thc ung ca khch hng, (iv)t xy dng k hoch cho sn phm mi c ph nc ung lin. Tuy a ra nhng nhn nh rt hiu qu v thng hiu, c bit l s thch tiu dng thc ung ca ngi Vit Nam ti 4 thnh ph ln, nhng do phc v mc ch kinh doanh nn nghin cu khng khi qut tnh hnh tiu th c ph v nh gi c nhng thi quen tiu dng c ph ni chung ca ngi dn thnh th. Nhng s liu v nhn nh trong bo co khng th khi qut ho lm c s cho vic hoch nh mt chin lc tiu th c ph trong nc. V vy, nghin cu v tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong nc ca Vit Nam l rt cn thit trong bi cnh hin nay. Tuy nhin, do ngun lc v thi gian hn ch nn nghin cu ch tp trung vo vic nh gi tiu th c ph ti hai thnh ph ln, H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh. 2. Mc tiu ca nghin cu nh gi tiu th c ph trong nc ti H Ni v TP H Ch Minh, phn theo loi c ph v theo v tr a l.

Xc nh cc xu th, thi quen tiu th c ph khc nhau v tim nng tiu th c ph. Da trn nhng nh gi ny, xc nh cc chnh sch gip tng tiu th c ph trong nc v xc nh cc yu t tiht lp h thng thng tin theo di nhu cu tiu th c ph trong nc.

3. Phng php nghin cu 3.1. Ngun s liu 3.1.1. S liu th cp Nghin cu ny trc ht khai thc b s liu ca iu tra Mc sng Dn C Vit Nam nm 1998 v 2002 (VHLSS). Cuc iu tra nm 1998 tp trung vo 6002 h v nm 2002 iu tra 30000 h. Mc d s mu khc nhau nhng hu ht cc h c iu tra nm 1998 cng c iu tra li vo nm 2002, v vy cng c th so snh tiu th v chi tiu bnh qun u ngi ca hai iu tra ny. T hai b s liu ny, nhm nghin cu c th khai thc mt s thng tin sau: lng v gi tr tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi ti h gia nh chia theo thnh th, nng thn, 8 vng sinh thi v nhm thu nhp. Ngoi ra, thng tin v nhu cu tiu th ca ung thay th nh ch cng c khai thc. T , nhm nghin cu s c c s xc nh tip nhng thng tin cn thu thp trong iu tra thc a. 3.1.2. S liu s cp iu tra c tin hnh 1 ln ti mt s h gia nh c chn, phng vn trc tip nhng ngi chu trch nhim mua lng thc cho gia nh bng mt bng hi c nh m. Cch ly mu: phng php chn mu, ch tiu chn mu iu tra h Cuc iu tra mang tnh cht m t cn mt s lng mu ln, t nht l 350 mu/thnh ph. Vic ly mu da trn phng php ly mu hai ln theo nhm - The two stage cluster sampling procedure (from Ginhoux, 2001). Phng php c th nh sau: Chn cc qun c nhng iu kin a dng v v tr, mc sng. Trong mi qun, phng, t v h c chn ngu nhin nh sau: s lng h c chn tng ng vi % dn c trong qun so vi thnh ph. Trong mi qun ny, nhm iu tra chn 1-3 t trong mt phng, 8-12 h trong mt t. Trc khi iu tra, trng nhm nghin cu cung cp tn qun, s lng h, t, phng cho cc iu tra vin.

cp h, ngi iu tra c th cn c trn danh sch do t trng cung cp hoc xung a bn, c 5 h, chn 1 h iu tra. Nu h i vng hoc khng th tip cn c th chn ngay h bn cnh. Cc h sau vn tip tc lp li phng php trn.

S mu c phn b nh trong hnh di y. Hnh1: Phn b mu ti cc qun H Ni

Hong Mai Thanh Xun
G Vp

Hnh 2: Phn b mu ti cc qun TP HCM

Tn Ph Qun 1 Qun 3

Ba nh

Cu Giy

Hai B Trng Hon Kim

Qun 11 Bnh Thnh Qun 6

iu tra qun c ph iu tra ny mang tnh cht phn tch nhiu hn l m t. Vic chn mu ph thuc vo vo mt s mt s c im v v tr v quy m ca qun. mi thnh ph tin hnh iu tra 20 qun c ph, phn ra cc loi nh sau: Bng hi h gia nh Cc thng tin chung v tng thnh vin trong h (tn, gii tnh, tui, ngh nghip, trnh hc vn...). Nhng thng tin ny rt cn thit xc nh cc nhm i tng tiu th c ph chnh. Thng tin v thu nhp ca tng thnh vin v tng thu nhp ca c h gia nh c thu thp c th nh gi c tng quan gia thu nhp c nhn v h vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph. Qun c ph nh: bn nh, ch bn rt t chng loi c ph (en, nu, nng v ), c bn thm ch v t loi nc qu. Cc qun c ph c bit (Highland Coffee, Trung Nguyen,): din tch rng, bn cao, nhiu loa ung v c km n. Lot qun c ph/nh hng ln Qun c ph km rang xay. Ni dung cc loi bng hi

Lng v gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi ti h gia nh (c mua v tiu dng, mua tng v c cho tng) phn theo tng loi c ph c thu thp cho nm 2004, c so snh vi nm 2002 thy c s bin i trong tiu th c ph ca h. Ngoi ra, phn ny cng cp thm nhng thng tin v thi gian tiu th chnh trong ngy, thi gian tiu th chnh trong nm, l do thay i c ph tiu th trong 2 nm (nu c). Lng v gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi bn ngoi h gia nh. Phn ny cng thu thp nhng thng tin tng t nh phn iu tra tiu th trong h, ch cp thm a im ung c ph chnh. y l thng tin rt quan trng gip nhm nghin cu nh hng cho t iu tra tip theo. Phn thng tin chung bao gm nhng cu hi m c tnh cht nh tnh v nhng nguyn nhn chnh khin ngi trong gia nh ung c ph, nhng nhn nh v nhm ngi ung c ph chnh v nhng nguyn nhn chnh hn ch tiu th c ph trong nc.

Bng hi qun c ph Cc thng tin chung v qun c ph: quy m, a im, ngy gi m ca, thi gian bn c ph chnh trong ngy, loi c ph v thc ung, doanh thu ca ca hng nm 2002 v 2004 Thng tin v ngun cung cp c ph: tng lng mua c ph hng thng, v lng mua c ph theo loi c ph, nhn hiu, xut x, c s cung cp. Thng tin v tnh hnh bn c ph ca qun: tn c ph trong thc n, lng c ph bn theo 4 bui hng ngy , gi n v, % of ngi tiu dng vo qun ung c ph; % doanh thu t c ph v c ph trong tng doanh thu t cc loi ung bn ti qun (khng tnh ru bia); loi c ph bn chy nht; Loi c ph no c tiu th nhiu hn trong thi im trong ngy; loi c ph no c bn nhiu hn cho nhm khch hng no. Phn thng tin chung bao gm nhng cu hi m cng c ni dung tng t nh iu tra h

3.2. Phng php phn tch 3.2.1. Phn tch thng k m t Phng php phn tch thng k m t c s dng khai thc s liu iu tra thc a. Do y ch l mt nghin cu nh gi tnh hnh nn vic s dng phng php ny l rt hiu qu nhm a ra bc tranh tng th v tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti hai thnh ph ln 3.2.2. Phng php phn tch kinh t lng

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Cc cng c kinh t lng c s dng trc ht phn tch tnh hnh tiu th c ph v ch trong nm 1998 v 2002 t b s liu iu tra mc sng dn c ca Tng cc Thng k. Nhm nghin cu cng p dng phng php ny phn tch tng quan gia thu nhp ca h v cc thnh vin trong h vi lng v gi tr tiu th c ph. Ngoi ra, mt s tng quan khc cng c xt n nh trnh hc vn, tui, gii tnh, ngh nghip vi tnh hnh tiu th.

4. Hn ch ca nghin cu: Nghin cu ch tp trung nh gi tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti hai thnh ph ln H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh. y l nghin cu mang tnh cht m t, nh gi tnh hnh nhiu hn l phn tch. Mt khc, y ch l nghin cu m u, lm c s cho nhng nghin cu ln sau ny v pht trin tiu th c ph trong nc. V vy nghin cu khng c tham vng a ra nhng khuyn ngh ln v mt chnh sch. i tng phc v ca nghin cu ny khng tp trung nhiu vo cc nh nghin cu v hoch nh chnh sch m phn ln s c ph bin rng ri cho cc doanh nghip kinh doanh trong nc. Mc d nghin cu c kt hp phn tch s liu tiu th trong nc ca Cuc iu tra mc sng dn c Vit Nam (VLSS) nhng s liu cng ch c tnh cht tham kho. Kt qu iu tra thc a cha chc phn nh ng s liu iu tra trong VLSS nhng cng l iu d hiu do nghin cu ny ch tp trung vo tiu th c ph ch khng dn tri nh VLSS.

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CHNG II: TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII V VIT NAM I. TNH HNH TIU TH C PH TH GII Trong vng 35 nm qua, cu c ph tng ti 11 ln trong nhng nm gi c ph ln cao. Tuy nhin, mc tng ny khng vt qu hai nm. Gn y, nhu cu c ph th gii tng khong 90.000 tn/nm (1,5-1,7%/nm). T l tng mnh nht tp trung vo Nht Bn, Trung Quc, Nga v cc nc ng u. u tin l th trng Nht Bn. Nm 1965, mc tiu th bnh qun ch khong 300 g/ngi/nm do ngi dn vn quen ung tr nhng hin c mc tiu th c ph tng i cao 3,17 kg/ngi/nm v d bo nhu cu nhp khu c ph vo Nht Bn s tng 2,5%/nm trong thp k ny. Tip theo Nht Bn l th trng Trung Quc. Cng vi tc tng trng kinh t cao nht th gii trong nhiu nm qua v vic hnh thnh mt lot cc khu cng nghip ven bin Thi Bnh Dng, ngi dn Trung Quc dn chuyn t vn ho ung ch sang ung c ph vi mc tng tiu th c ph hng nm t ti 30%. Mc d y ch l bc nhy vt t con s ban u qu nh b do vn ho ung tr n su vo tim thc ca ngi dn nhng do lng c ph tiu th bnh qun tnh trn u ngi dn lc a vn thp hn nhiu so vi cc nc khc, 1g/ngi/nm nn d bo th trng nhp khu c ph vo Trung Quc s tng mnh trong thp k ti.2 Tip theo Trung Quc l th trng Nga, cc nc ng v Nam u. C ph ngy cng c coi l ung thi thng Nga v nhu cu tiu th tng ln r rt. Theo d bo ca ICO tiu th ti th trng ny s tng 10%/nm. C ph ho tan hin nay kh c a chung ti Nga v ngy cng nhiu cng ty trong nc tham gia vo sn xut loi sn phm ny. Nhp khu ca cc nc ng u khc d bo s tng khong 1-1,5%/nm trong thp k ti. Nhu cu d bo s tng nhanh Hy Lp, Italia v B o Nha. Tiu th c ph u ngi M c xu hng tng ln cht t trong nm 2003, t 4,24kg/ngi/nm so vi mc 3,94 kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2002 nhng vn cha vt c mc cao ca nm 1999. Hng nm, nhu cu ca M tng khong 3,5-4%. Ngoi ra, cu c ph cng c chiu hng gia tng cc nc sn xut , nht l Brazil. Hin nay, Brazil, cng nh mt s quc gia sn xut c ph hng u khc, bt u nhn thc c tm quan trng ca vic y mnh tiu dng c ph trong nc. Brazil khng ch l nc xut khu c ph ng u th gii m cn xp th 2 sau M trong vic tiu th c ph. Hin nay, Brazil tiu th trn 13 triu bao mi nm, chim khong 40% sn lng. Cc quan chc Braxin cho bit, sc mua ca ngi dn ang gia tng v s cn tip tc tng trong nm ti. Tiu th ni a ca Braxin ang tng nhanh hn d kin. Tnh n thng 10/04, bnh qun mi ngi dn tiu th 4,01 kg c ph - mc cao
2

Nguyn S Ngh, Cy c ph Vit Nam, NXB Nng nghip, 1982.

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nht k t thp nin 60. Ngnh c ph Brazil t mc tiu tng lng tiu th ni a ln 1,5 triu bao mi nm thng qua cc chng trnh qung co v khuyn mi, y mc tiu th bnh qun ln 5,3 kg/ngi. Theo Hip hi cc nh xut khu c ph Braxin, tiu th c ph ni a nm nay ca nc ny c tnh t 14,9 triu bao trong nm 2005, v con s ny s tng ln 15,5 triu bao vo nm 2006. Ch tch Hip hi c ph Braxin Guivan Bueno cho bit, Braxin d nh s nng mc tiu th ni a ln 21 triu bao vo nm 2010 v vt qua M. Tng cu c ph cc nc tiu th truyn thng c xu hng chng li. Tuy nhin, cu tiu th c ph ung lin, cc sn phm c ph cht lng cao v khc bit li ang c Hnh 3: Tiu th c ph u ngi mt s nc (kg/ngi/nm)
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Nc NK khc Nht Bn

EC M

Ngun: USDA (2004)

a chung. ng thi, cc th trng ny cng tng thi quen tiu dng c ph kim espresso, loi c ph khng ph thuc qu nhiu vo hng v c ph arabica c ch bin t. Cc th trng truyn thng Ty u v Bc M c xu hng tng chm do lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi hin mc cao nh Phn Lan 11,21 kg/ngi/nm, B - Luxembourg 9,6 kg/ngi/nm, c 6,64 kg/ngi/nm v M 4,24 kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2003 (theo USDA). Ngi Anh vn thch ung tr cng tiu dng khong 2,2 kg/ngi v Ai Len l 1,31 kg/ngi. Do , mc tng nhu cu d bo khong 1,3%/nm t nay n nm 2010 ch tng ng vi tc tng trng dn s cc nc ny, so snh vi mc 2,3% trong thp k 90 th k XX. Trong khi , tiu th c ph cc nc nhp khu khc c xu th gim khong 1,5% so vi nm 2002, ch t 3,47 kg/ngi/nm trong nm 2003.

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Tiu th c ph ca Indonesia trong nhng nm gn y t mc tng ng k. T nm 1998 n 2003, lng tiu th trong nc ca nc ny tng hn 50.000 tn, tng Hnh 4: Sn xut, xut khu v tiu th c ph Indonesia 1998-2003 (tn)

ng vi khong 10%. Mc tng c duy tr lin tc trong sut giai on ny. Tuy nhin, cho n 2003, tiu th trong nc cng mi t khong 133 nghn tn, chim 27,7% tng sn lng (Benny, 2003). Mc d mc tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi trn phm vi ton cu t thay i trong nhng nm qua, dao ng trong khong 4,5-4,7 kg/ngi/nm v mc tiu th thp cc nc xut khu c ph, ch khong 1kg/ngi/nm nhng nhu cu th gii trong thi gian ti chc chn s tng do xu hng tng nhanh cc th trng mi ni v chnh sch khuyn khch tiu dng ni a c ph cc nc xut khu chnh. Do , tiu th c ph ca cc nc ang pht trin d bo s tng bnh qun 2,5%/nm, a t trng ca cc nc ang pht trin trong tng mc tiu th c ph ton cu ln 30% trong nm 2010. . Nin v 2005/06, cu v c ph th gii d kin s vt cung khong 480.000 tn. Tiu th c ph th gii nin v ti s tng mnh v 2 l do: Th nht, M ti gia nhp ICO vo thng 10/04 to thm c hi cho tiu th c ph ton cu v M l th trng tiu th ln nht th gii. Th hai, din n c ph quc t c t chc ti Singapore nhm tm kim nhng c hi mi, khi phc ngnh c ph v thit lp mt mng li cho nhng ngi sn xut, kinh doanh v tiu th c ph ton cu. Cc nc sn xut coi ci thin cht lng l cha kho khi phc gi c ph th gii. Ngoi ra, thu nhp v dn s tng ln cc nc ang pht trin l nhng yu t dn n mc tng tiu th cao ca cc nc thuc khu vc ny. Tuy nhin, v c cu sn phm tiu th, cc nc ang pht trin vn tp trung cc sn phm c mc gi v cht lng thp.

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Cc loi c ph chnh c tiu th trn th gii hin nay: Cc th trng ng u, ng Nam v Bc Phi ngy cng tng tiu th c phe eho tan c pha ch t c ph cht lng thp Robusta. Cc loi c ph 3 trong 1 (ng, bt sa v c ph ho tan) ang rt c a chuc cc nc ng Nam . Hin nay, c ph Robusta c dng ph bin hn pha ch vi c ph Arabica do lng cung c ph Robusta tng mnh trong hn 1 thp k qua v cng ngh ch bin c ph c ci tin Trong thi gian ti, cn bng cung cu c ph c th s c ci thin cht t. c bit l trong nm 2005 khi tnh hnh thi tit din bin bt li ti hai nc sn xut c ph ln nht, Brazil v Vit Nam. Nm 2004, u nm 2005, gi c ph trn th trng th gii tng lin tc. Nm 2004 cng l nm u tin th trng th gii c du hiu thot khi cuc khng hong ko di hn 4 nm.
Bin ng gi c ph th gi i n m 2004 (USD/tn)

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Arabica

Robusta

Tng ngun cung c ph ca cc Ngun: R euters nc sn xut trong v 2004/05 c t 8.592.000 tn, tng 1% so vi v 2003/04 nh sn lng tng. Nhng xut khu li gim 2% xung 5.400.000 tn do nhu cu tiu th ti cc nc sn xut ang tng ln. Xut khu c ph ca Braxin d kin gim 84.000 tn xung cn 1416.000 tn. ICO cng d bo sn lng c ph th gii nin v 2005/06 t 6.360.000-6.480.000 tn, gim khong 7% so vi v trc. Khi lng c ph xut khu ca Braxin tip tc gim st do sn lng d kin gim mnh xung 1.842.000-1.980.000 tn khi cy c ph bc vo giai on suy gim c tnh chu k v nng nng xut hin trong thng 7 v thng 8. Sn lng c ph ca Vit Nam cng gim khong 20% xung 720.000 tn, sn lng ca Indonesia v Colombia n nh nhng xut khu gim do tiu th ni a tng. Trc tnh hnh cu c xu hng tng v cung c xu hng gim, ngi dn trng c ph li c thm c hi tng gi tr gia tng cho sn phm ca mnh. Tuy nhin, vic ph thuc vo th trng th gii nh vy t ra khng bn vng v tng lm nhiu nc tht bi. Bi hc n by gi vn cn gi tr v buc ngnh c ph phi tm nhiu con ng khc nhau tng gi tr gia tng. Mt trong nhng bin php l pht trin tiu th ni tiu. Bin php ny c bit ng vi Vit Nam, mt quc gia nm trong nhm cc nc sn xut c ph ln nhng tiu th trong nc ch chim trung bnh 5% tng sn lng, duy tr mc 500.000 bao/nm trong 3 nm gn y (USDA, 2003).

15

Phn tip theo ca bi vit ny s cp n nhng nt chnh trong tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua tng kt cc ti liu, bo co trc y.

II. NHNG NT CHNH V TNH HNH TIU TH C PH VIT NAM 1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph Vit Nam thng qua s liu iu tra mc sng dn c VHLSS nm 2002 Theo s liu iu tra VLSS 2002, khng c nhiu ngi dn Vit Nam tiu th c ph trong h gia nh. Trong ngy thng, c khong 19,2% tiu th c ph, trong 47% tiu th c ph ung lin v 53% tiu th c ph bt. Tuy nhin, trong dp l tt, s lng ngi tiu th c ph trong h gia nh tng ln, khong 23% s h. Trung bnh nm 2002, ngi Vit Nam tiu th khong 1,25 kg c ph/nm, bao gm c ph tiu th trong ngy thng (c ph ung lin v c ph bt) v c ph ung trong dp l tt. Tuy nhin, trong iu tra ny, ch c s liu v gi tr ca c ph ung lin. Gi tr tiu th c ph trung bnh ca ngi dn Vit Nam nm 2002 l khong 9130 /ngi/nm. 1.1. Khc bit gia nng thn v thnh th Tiu th ni a c ph c s khc bit ln gia thnh th v nng thn c v lng v gi tr. Lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi ca thnh th nm 2002 (2,4kg) cao gp 2,72 ln tiu th ca nng thn (0,89 kg). Trong khi , gi tr tiu th bnh qun u ngi ca thnh th t 20280 ng, cao gp 3,5 ln mc ca nng thn. Hnh 6 : Lng (kg/ngi) v gi tr (000/ngi) tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi nng thn v thnh th nm 2002
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Thnh th Nng thn Trung bnh 10 5 0 Lng Gi tr 25 20 15

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

16

B s liu VHLSS cng phn chia tiu th c ph thnh hai loi c ph bt v c ph ung lin. Tnh hnh tiu th ca c hai loi c ph bt v c ph ung cng c s khc bit ln gia thnh th v nng thn. Khu vc thnh th tiu th c ph ung lin nhiu gp 2,74 ln khu vc nng thn, trong khi , chnh lch v gi tr tiu th loi c ph ny l gn 5 ln gia hai khu vc. Gi tr tiu th tiu th c ph bt khu vc thnh th ln gp 2,65 ln khu vc nng thn (7,8 v 2,9 nghn /ngi/nm). Hnh 7: Lng tiu th c ph bt v ung lin 02 (kg/ngi/nm)
Lng u ng li n
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Thnh th N ng thn

Lng b t

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

S khc bit ln v gi tr tiu th c th do gi khu vc thnh th cao hn khu vc nng thn nh mc sng cao hn. Nm 2002, tng chi tiu khu vc thnh th khong 27 triu ng trong khi tng chi tiu khu vc nng thn ch c khong 12 triu ng. Ngoi ra, chnh lch v gi tr cng c th do cht lng c ph bn ti th trng thnh th cao hn th trng nng thn. Tuy nhin, cha c mt nghin cu no khng nh r nhn nh ny. 1.2. Khc bit gia cc nhm thu nhp Cc h gia nh c chia lm 5 nhm da trn thu nhp ca h, mi nhm chim 20% tng s h, t nhm ngho nht (quintile 1) n nhm giu nht (quintile 5). Tiu th c ph bnh qun u ngi tng dn t nhm c thu nhp thp nht n nhm c thu nhp cao nht. Trong , lng tiu th c ph ca nhm 5 cao hn nhm 1 n gn 18 ln, tuy nhin, gi tr tiu th ch chnh lch khong gn 9 ln. Nh vy, v m t thng k, tiu th c ph c xu hng thay i theo thu nhp.

17

Hnh 8: Tiu th c ph u ngi theo nhm thu nhp nm 2002

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ngho nh t 2 3 4 Giu nh t Lng (gr/ng i) Gi tr (000/ng i) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS 2002 (Trn Qunh Chi)

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph bt v ung lin cng din bin theo xu hng trn, tuy nhin, lng c ph bt tiu th thp hn nhiu so vi lng c ph ung lin. nhm thu nhp cao nht, lng c ph ung lin c tiu th nhiu gp 9,4 ln lng c ph bt. Trong khi , nhm ngho nht, mc chnh lch ny l 9,8 ln. Hnh 9: Lng c ph bt v ung lin theo nhm thu nhp (kg/ngi/nm)
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Ngho nht 2 3 4 Giu nht Trung bnh Ung li n Bt 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS (Trn Qunh Chi) 1.3. Khc bit gia cc vng Hu ht cc khu vc Vit Nam u tiu th c ph, nhng rt khc vit. Nam Trung B, ng bng Sng Cu Long v Duyn hi Nam Trung B l ba khu vc tiu th c ph nhiu nht trong c nc. Vng Ty Bc, ng Bc v BSH tiu th rt t c ph, thm ch khu vc Ty Bc hu nh khng tiu th vi mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi ch c

18

0,03 kg/nm. Lng tiu th c ph khu vc Ty Nguyn nhiu th 4 trn c nc nhng vn mc thp so vi 3 khu vc ng u. Gi tr tiu th ca cc khu vc din bin khng hon ton ging nh lng tiu th. c bit l khu vc Duyn hi Nam Trung B v Ty Nguyn. khu vc Duyn hi Nam Trung B, mc d lng tiu th u ngi rt cao (1,5kg/ngi/nm) nhng gi tr tiu th ch t 6230 /ngi/nm. Trong khi khu vc Ty Nguyn, cc con s ny ln lt l 0,28 kg v 4150. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gii thch hin tng ny l khu vc Ty Nguyn ch yu tiu th cc loi c ph bt, c cht lng cao, vi lng c ph bt tiu th khu vc ny cao th 3 trong ton quc (0,12 kg/ngi/nm) so vi mc 0,08kg ca vng Duyn hi NTB. Hnh 10: Tiu th c ph u ngi theo vng ca Vit Nam nm 2002
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
BSH ng Bc Ty Bc Duyn Duyn Ty Nam B SCL hi BTB hi NTB Nguyn Trung B TB

Lng Gi tr

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Ngun: Tnh ton t VHLSS (Trn Qunh Chi) 2. Tiu th c ph Vit Nam - nhn nh t cc ngun thng tin khc Theo nhn nh ca nhiu chuyn gia, tiu th ni a ca c ph Vit nam cn qu t. Trong khi mi ngi Bc u ung 10 kg c ph nhn mi nm, Ty u l 5-6 kg th ngi Vit Nam mi tiu th khong 500 gr. (www.vnexpress.net, 10/2005). Vit Nam vn l nc sn xut c ph ch ng sau Brazil v l nc ng u v sn xut c ph vi. Theo s liu t Vicofa, tc tng trng bnh qun din tch t trng c ph t khong 15% trong nhng nm 90, v ti cui th k 20 c nc c khong na triu hecta c ph. Hin nay hu ht c ph nhn c sn xut ra l phc v xut khu. Sn lng xut khu ca Vit Nam t 600.000-700.000 tn c ph nhn mi nm. Hai v c ph 2000-2001 v 2003-2004 Vit Nam xut khu trn 800.000 tn c ph. Cng nh nhiu ngnh sn xut khc, c bit l thy sn v nng sn, cc doanh nghip kinh doanh ch bin c ph "chung" u t xut khu hn l tiu th th trng ni a.

19

Mt s nghin cu gn y c Ngn hng th gii (WB) a ra cho thy tim nng th trng ni a ca Vit Nam c th tiu th ti 70.000 tn/nm. Ngha l vi sn lng c ph hng nm thu hoch c 700.000 - 800.000 tn th lng c ph tiu th ni a ca Vit Nam mc xp x 10%. Tuy nhin, theo s liu thng k ca cuc iu tra mc sng dn c trn th nu mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi c ph ca Vit Nam t 1,25 kg/ngi/nm th nm 2002, mc tng tiu th c nc phi t khong 95,000 tn. Trong khi theo Hip hi C ph th gii, tiu dng ni a ca c ph Vit Nam hin ch t khong 5%, thp nht trong s cc nc sn xut c ph. Mc chnh lch ny cng "khp khing" nu so vi sn lng tiu dng c ph ni a ca cc nc thnh vin Hip hi C ph th gii l 25,16%. iu ny cho thy, c rt nhiu ngun thng tin nh gi v mc tiu th u ngi khc nhau v cho nhng s liu rt khc bit. chnh l mt trong nhng l do khin cho nhm nghin cu ca Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNN-NT tin hnh nghin cu ny. Trc tnh hnh mc tiu th ni a thp nh trn, mt s hng sn xut trong nc v lin doanh c ph Vit Nam lin tc a ra nhng chin lc kinh doanh khc nhau nhm thu ht khch hng. Theo kt qu iu tra ca Cng ty C ph Trung Nguyn th Trung Nguyn, Nescafe v Vinacafe l 3 hng sn xut bn c ph nhiu nht v c a chung nht Vit Nam hin nay.
100 80 60 40 20 0 Loai A T.Nguyen cafe BMT Vinacafe Me Trang Nescafe Khac Loai B cafe Long

Cc hng c ph ny p dng nhiu chin lc kinh doanh c ph khc nhau. ang tn dng mi phng tin thng tin tm kim i tc xut khu, Gim c doanh nghip c ph Thu H ti Pleiku Ng Tn Gic cho bit, 2/3 trong s hn 300.000 tn c ph bt hng nm doanh nghip ny sn xut c dnh cho xut khu. "Chng ti c gng pht trin th trng ni a nhng cnh tranh ht sc kh khn v doanh thu rt

20

thp so vi gi tr kim ngch xut khu". "m ng" v th trng pha Nam v TP HCM, nhn hiu c ph Thu H 3 ln "tn cng", nhng tht bi vn hon tht bi. "Hin Thu H ang tip cn trc tip ngi tiu dng bng cch m nhng tim phc v ung c ph, nhng hiu qu khng cao lm". M rng knh tip th v tiu th ni a bng cch phc v nhu cu thng thc c ph ha tan hay pha sn cng ang l cch m mt s cng ty c ph ang la chn. Ngoi "chui" qun c ph Trung Nguyn, mt lot nhn hiu khc nh Highland, Phc Ban M, c ph Bun M Thut... ln lt m cc ca hiu c ph ti cc th ln nh TP HCM, Cn Th, Quy Nhn... Song hiu qu th, "mc ch l qung b v gii thiu sn phm ch khng t nng vn doanh thu", gim c mt cng ty ch bin c ph ti Bun M Thut nhn nh. Theo phn tch ca gii kinh doanh c ph ch bin, mt tr ngi khc khin cho c ph Vit Nam kh tiu th ni a l do xu hng ung c ph "cng nghip" trong gii tr ngy cng tng p ng nhu cu nhanh trong nhp sng hin i. "C ph ha tan tr nn xu hng tiu dng ch o hin nay, cng a dng hng v v p ng mi nhu cu cng hp dn", i din Cng ty Nestcafe cho bit. Th phn c ph ho tan hin nay chia cho 2 hng ln: Vinacafe: 50,4%, Nescaf: 33,2% v cc nhn hiu khc 16,4%. Vinacafe lun theo st khu hiu tn trng v cao gi tr truyn thng, mang nhng g tinh tu nht ca thin nhin n vi ngi tiu dng. Hin nay Vinacafe chun b u t mt dy chuyn mi, cng sut khong 3200 tn c ph ho tan/nm, gp 4 ln cng sut hin nay. Theo ng Bi Xun Thoa, Gim c Cng ty C phn C ph Bin Ho (Vinacaf) Th trng c ph Vit Nam ang gia tng cnh tranh quyt lit, vi th phn ng k v kinh nghim hn 30 nm, vn tiu dng ni a thc s khng ng ngi vi Vinacaf. Chng ti s tng tng cu ni a bng nhng phn khc mi v c v ngi tiu dng. Trung Nguyn - doanh nghip lm ma lm gi trn th trng c ph phin vi thng hiu Trung Nguyn nhiu nm qua lm nng th trng c ph ho tan bng sn phm G7 vi tng mc u t cho mt dy chuyn sn xut c ph ho tan ln ti 10 triu USD, cng sut 200 tn/nm. ng L Nguyn V, tng gim c cng ty Trung Nguyn cho bit: Trung Nguyn phi dn tng lc cho cuc cnh tranh, nh G7 chim mt th phn ni a ng k v CPHT. Nhng ln hn ci li kinh t v CPHT Trung Nguyn ch yu xut khu, l qua G7 gp phn ng k vo phong tro ngi Vit dng hng Vit, nng cao thc doanh nghip tr dm ng u vi cc tp on quc t ngay trn sn nh. Song, i vi nhiu doanh nghip t nhn khc, vic u t sn xut c ph ha tan li i hi ngun vn ln v chi ph chuyn giao cng ngh, tr thnh mt ci kh "b" ly doanh nghip va v nh. Kt qu, doanh nghip vn tp trung xut khu c ph nhn hoc bt m b qua th trng ni a. 21

Ung c ph - la chn tng lai ca ngi Vit Nam "Tiu th sn phm do mnh lm ra, cng l mt nt p vn ho. Trc y, chng ta vn ngh gin n rng, c ph lm ra l xut khu. C l ngh ch xut pht t mt np ngh c t lu l ngi Vit quen ung tr. Tr tr thnh ung truyn thng... Chng ta vn c th cn lm phong ph thm vn ho m thc ca nhn dn ta. cng l mt yu cu ca hi nhp Quc t!" i vi nc ta, thi quen dng c ph c hng liu vn cha nhiu, sn xut v bn loi c ph ny ch yu vn l c ph Trung Nguyn. ng on Triu Nhn cho rng: "C l y mnh tiu th c ph ni a chng ta cng cn pht trin c ph c hng liu v n tng thm ngi tiu th, lm mnh m thm hnh nh c ph ca ta v m rng c s ngi tiu dng ca ta nh cc qun c ph, ca hng n". Cn di gc kinh t, sau khi phn tch din bin th trng c ph th gii hn na nm qua, T chc C ph Quc t (ICO) mi y c nhn nh kh th v: s pht trin tiu th c ph ni a cc nc xut khu c ph tr thnh mt trong nhng u tin trong nghin cu s cn bng cung cu ca th trng c ph. V gc sc kho, th gii c n 11 cuc hi tho v ch c ph v sc kho, m gn y nht, t chc c ph quc t ch tr tin hnh ti London (Anh) ngy 19.5.2001, cc nh khoa hc danh ting ca nhiu nc trnh mt cng trnh nghin cu v c ph v sc kho, h kt lun: c ph l mt loi ung kch thch, t nhin v lnh. Ti li ngh nh mt cu cch ngn ca mt nh trit hc ngi Thu S th k 14: "Tt c l thuc c/ Chng c g l khng c c/ Ch c liu lng/L c th khin cho mi ci khng thnh thuc c".

22

CHNG III. XU TH V TIM NNG TIU TH C PH CA NGI VIT NAM TI HAI THNH PH H NI V H CH MINH
I. KT QU IU TRA H GIA NH Nh trnh by phn phng php nghin cu, nghin cu ny tin hnh iu tra 700 h ti hai thnh ph ln H Ni v Thnh ph HCM. Ti H Ni, 6 qun c chn bao gm: Hon Kim, Hai B Trng, Ba nh, Hong Mai, Cu Giy, Thanh Xun. Ti TP HCM, cc qun c chn l: qun 1, qun 3, qun 6, qun 11, qun Tn Ph, qun G Vp, qun Bnh Thnh. 1. c im h gia nh 1.1 tui Phng vn c tin hnh ch yu l vi nhng ngi chu trch nhim ni tr trong gia nh. Trung bnh, mi h iu tra c khong 4 ngi. Kt qu iu tra cho thy, tui trung bnh tiu th c ph thnh ph H Ni khong 36,3. Ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, tui trung bnh ca ngi tiu th c ph c iu tra l 34,9.
Hnh 11: % s ngi phn theo gii v h - HN
Hnh 12 : % s ngi phn theo gii v h - HCM

Hnh 11 v 12 cho thy tui lao ng ca hai thnh ph chnh lch kh nhiu gia 3 loi h, c bit l nhm h giu vi s lng lao ng nam HN nhiu hn hn lao ng n trong khi TP HCM s lng ny l tng ng nh nhau. 1.2 Trnh gio dc Trong s cc h c iu tra, trnh d gio dc H Ni cao hn i cht so vi thnh ph HCM. Ti H Ni, trnh gio dc trung bnh cc qun tng i cao. Trnh cp 3 cao nht (370 ngi), tip l trnh i hc (313). Ti TP H Ch Minh, trnh

23

 cp 3 cng cao nht (464), tip l cp 2 (319). So vi H Ni, s ngi c trnh i hc TP H Ch Minh thp hn (180). Hnh 13 : Trnh gio dc cc h iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM (s ngi)
500 400 300 200 100 0 H Ni TP HCM

M ch

Cp I

Cp II

Cp III

Hc ngh

i hc

Cao hc

TS

1.3 Vic lm S ngi c iu tra c ngh nghip a dng bao gm: Cn b nh nc, ngi lm kinh doanh nh, cng nhn, doanh nghip, sinh vin, hc sinh, ni tr, v hu, ngi tn tt, tht nghip,.Trong cc h iu tra ti H Ni, s ngi ngh hu l ch yu, chim 19,8%, tip theo l ngi lm kinh doanh, cn b cng chc, hc sinh, bun bn nh, sinh vin, ln lt chim t l 16,4%, 13,8%, 13,7%, 11,6%, 8%. Cn li l cc ngh nghip khc. Ti TP HCM, s h l kinh doanh chim a s 26,3%, tip l hc sinh 15,7%, cng nhn 14,6%, ni tr 9,7%, bun bn nh 9,1%. Ngi v hu v sinh vin cng chim khong 6,5%, cn li l cc ngh nghip khc. Hnh 14: Ngh nghip ca cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM (s ngi)
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Cn b NN Cng nhn Sinh vin Ni tr Tn tt Tht nghip HN HCM

24

1.4 Thu nhp Theo nh gi ca ngi phng vn, s lng h giu, ngho v trung bnh khng phn b u trong mu. Trong khi ch c 18% h giu v 11% h ngho th c ti 71% h thu nhp trung bnh. Hnh 15: % s h phn theo nhm thu nhp

Theo kt qu iu tra, mc thu nhp trung bnh ca cc h ti H Ni l khong 4,3 triu/thng/h, ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, thu nhp trung bnh cao hn, khong 5,1 triu/thng/h. Theo nhm h, ti H Ni, nhm h giu c thu nhp trung bnh 8,7 triu/thng/h, cao hn so vi thu nhp ca nhm h giu ti TP HCM (7,5 triu/thng/h). Con s ny ca nhm h trung bnh ti H Ni l khong 3,8 triu, ti TP HCM khong 4,7 triu. Nhm h ngho c mc thu nhp rt thp, khong 2,1 triu/thng/h ti H Ni v 2,9 triu/thng/h ti TP HCM. Hnh 16: Thu nhp trung bnh mt thng ca h iu tra (000/ngi/thng)

5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 H N i TPH M C

25

Hnh 17: Thu nhp trung bnh theo nhm h (000/ngi/thng)

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 G iu Trung bnh N gho H N i TPH M C

2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh 2.1. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca cc h iu tra. Nm 2004, tng lng mua u ngi ca cc h iu tra ti H Ni l 752 gram/ngi/nm, ca cc h iu tra ti TP HCM l 1651,5 gram/ngi/nm. Gi tr mua u ngi ca H Ni khong 48 nghn/ngi/nm, ca TP HCM cao gp 3 ln, khong 121 nghn/ngi/nm. Hnh 18: Tng tiu th c ph u ngi trong gia nh nm 2004
L ng m u ng i (gr) ua

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

G tr m u ng i (000) i ua

H N i

T H M P C

Ti H Ni, cc qun tiu th chnh ln lt l Qun Ba nh (1150 gr/ngi/nm), Cu giy (828 gr) v Hong Mai (837 gr). Ti Thnh ph HCM, Qun Tn Ph, Qun 3 v Qun 1 l nhng qun tiu th nhiu c ph trong gia nh vi s lng ln lt l 2230, 2260 v 1772 gr/ngi/nm).

26

So vi nm 2002, lng tiu th c ph u ngi c hai thnh ph nm 2004 u tng, nhng tc tng H Ni nhanh hn TP H Ch Minh. Lng tiu th c ph u ngi trong gia nh ca TP H Ch Minh tng t 1305 gr/ngi nm 2002 ln 1651 gr/ngi nm 2004, tng ng vi 21%. Ti H Ni, tc tng t nm 2002 n 2004 t 25% (t 566 n 752 gr/ngi/nm).
Hnh 19: So snh tng lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh 2002-2004.(gr/ngi/nm)
H Ni 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2004 TP HCM

Phn theo loi h, cc h iu tra H Ni c lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi vi nhm h ngho l 466 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h trung bnh l 750 gram/ngi/nm, v nhm h giu l 942 gram/ngi/nm. H Ni, nhm h giu vn c lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi nhiu hn hn, gp i so vi nhm h ngho. Ti TP HCM, lng mua bnh qun ca nhm h ngho l 1984 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h trung bnh l 1332 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h giu l 2210 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h giu c lng tiu th bnh qun u ngi cao nht v khc vi H Ni, nhm h c lng tiu th bnh qun thp nht li l nhm h trung bnh ch khng phi nhm h ngho.
Hinh 20: So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h H Ni (gr/ngi/nm)
2004

Hnh 21: So snh tiu th c ph theo loi h HCM (gr/ngi/nm)

2004 2500 2000 1500 2002

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2002

Trong s ba nhm h trn, nhm h c

1000 500 0

Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

Giu

Trung bnh

Ngho

27

Ti c hai thnh ph ny, nhm giu l nhm c thay i lng tiu th c ph ln nht. Ti H Ni, nm 2004 nhm giu v nhm trung bnh u c mc tiu th c ph nhiu hn 26% so vi nm 2002, trong khi , nhm ngho ch tng mc tiu th 14% so vi nm 2002. Ti TP HCM, lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh nm 2004 ca nhm ngi c thu nhp cao tng ti 32% so vi nm 2002; trong khi , nhm thu nhp trung bnh v ngho ch tiu th tng 13 v 19% so vi 2002. Qua hnh 20-21, c th thy lng tiu th c ph ti H Ni c xu hng tng theo thu nhp trong khi TP HCM, chng ta khng thy xu hng ny. Tng quan gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph ca hai thnh ph ny s c phn tch k hn phn sau. Tiu th c ph nm 2004 tng so vi nm 2002 do mt s nguyn nhn sau. Phn ln cc h H Ni u cho rng lng c ph tiu th ngy cng tng do nhn thc ca h tt hn v dinh dng ca c ph v tc dng i vi sc kho, c bit l cc bnh tim mch. Nhiu ngi cng tha nhn h c cho/biu nhiu c ph hn nn tiu th nhiu hn. Ti TP H Ch Minh, phn ln cc h cho rng cht lng c ph ngy cng tt hn v nhn thc tt hn v tc dng i vi sc kho l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin h ngy cng tng lng tiu th c ph. Trong tng mc tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca h, nhm nghin cu phn chia ra thnh c ph m h gia nh mua v lng c ph m h c cho/tng. Thng tin v tnh hnh h mua c ph cho/tng ngi khc cng c thu thp nhng ch c ngha tham kho v nu iu tra c tin hnh ti tt c cc h th v nguyn tc, lng c ph c cho/tng s bng lng c ph m h mua cho/tng ngi khc. 2.1.1. Tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh. Tn sut mua c ph Hnh 22: % s h mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nm 2004
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Khng bao gi Vi ln/nm Vi ln/thng Vi ln/tun H N i TP C H M

28

V tn sut tiu dng, H Ni, cc h ch yu dng c ph vi ln trong nm. S h khng bao gi ung c ph chim 19,9%, s h mua c ph vi ln trong 1 nm chim 70,1%, s ngi ung vi ln trong 1 thng chim 9,4%, s ngi ung thng xuyn vi ln trong mt tun chim t l rt t 0,6%. Ti TP H Ch Minh, tiu th c ph c khc bit so vi H Ni. S h khng bao gi mua c ph chim 14,4%. S h mua vi ln trong 1 nm chim 32,8%. S h mua c ph nhiu ln trong thng chim 40,7%. S h dng thng xuyn vi ln trong tun chim 12,2%. Nh vy, so vi H Ni, cc h iu tra TP HCM c mc tiu dng c ph vi ln trong thng cao gp hn 4 ln. mc dng vi ln trong mt tun, cc h TP HCM cng chim t l cao hn, gp hn 10 ln so vi H Ni. Ti H Ni, tn sut mua c ph dng khc nhau theo cc qun. mc khng bao gi mua c ph, tn sut ln nht l qun Ba nh, tip l Hon Kim, Hai B Trng, Cu Giy v Thanh Xun. Qun Hong Mai c tn sut nh nht (4 h). Tiu th c ph tp trung ch yu mc vi ln trong nm, kh ng u nhau cc qun, trong nhiu nht l qun Thanh Xun (54). mc vi ln trong thng, tn sut tiu th c ph t, nhiu nht l qun Ba nh (14). Cn tiu th vi ln trong tun th hu nh rt t, khng ng k. Tiu th c ph c th ti cc qun ca TP H Ch Minh cng khc so vi H Ni. Cc h TP HCM tiu dng c ph kh thng xuyn v ng u cc mc . mc khng bao gi dng, qun G Vp c tn sut cao nht (25), tip l cc qun 3, qun 1,Qun Bnh Thnh c tn sut nh nht. Tiu dng c ph TP H Ch Minh tp trung vo 2 mc nhiu ln trong nm v nhiu ln trong thng. i vi mc nhiu ln trong nm, qun Bnh Thnh c tn sut tiu dng c ph ln nht (45), tip theo l cc qun G Vp, qun 3, qun Tn Ph, qun 1. Cn mc thng xuyn hn, nhiu ln trong thng, qun 11 c tn sut cao nht (30), cc qun khc tng i ng u nhau mc tn sut t 17-24. qun 1 v qun Tn Ph, tn sut tiu dng c ph nhiu nht mc nhiu ln trong tun. So vi nm 2002, tn sut mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh khng thay i nhiu. H Ni, % s h mua c ph vi ln/thng v vi ln/nm c tng t 7,9% v 0,28% nm 2002 n 9,4% v 0,57% nm 2004. S h khng bao gi tiu th cng ch gim i cht t ti HN, khong 2,57% trong giai on trn. Ti TP HCM, % s h khng bao gi mua v mua vi ln/nm u gim, ln lt khong 1,4% v 4% t nm 2002 n 2004. Lng mua c ph

Lng c ph mua trung bnh 1 ngi/nm ti H Ni khong 551 gram, gi tr khong 34 nghn/ngi/nm. Lng c ph mua trung bnh 1 ngi/nm ti TP HCM khong 1461 gram, gi tr khong 107 nghn/ngi/nm.

29

Hnh 23: Tng lng mua c ph u ngi cho tiu th trong gia nh nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

H Ni, lng mua c ph trung bnh ca nhm h giu l 673 gram/ngi/nm, ca nhm h trung bnh l 552 gram/ngi/nm, v nhm h ngho l 341 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h giu vn tiu th nhiu nht nhng chnh lch khng nhiu so vi nhm h trung bnh v nhm h ngho. Ti TP HCM, lng mua bnh qun u ngi ca tng nhm h ln lt l, h giu khong 2210 gram/ngi/nm, h trung bnh l 1332 gram/ngi/nm v h ngho l 1948 gram/ngi/nm. H giu vn l nhm mua nhiu nht v c bit nhm h ngho li c lng mua kh cao, hn hn nhm trung bnh. Hnh 24: Lng mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh theo loi h nm 2004 (gr/ngi/nm)
20 50 20 00 10 50 10 00 50 0 0 Gu i T n b h ru g n Nh o g
H N i T HM P C

Nh trn thy, tn sut mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh c chia lm 4 loi: khng bao gi, mua vi ln/nm, vi ln/thng v vi ln/tun. Mua c ph vi ln/nm

30

Nm 2004, hu ht cc h H Ni ch mua c ph vi ln/nm, vi tng lng khong 566 gr/ngi/nm, cao hn i cht so vi TP H Ch Minh (481 gr/ngi/nm). Mc d vy, gi tr mua vi ln mt nm cc h ny khng khc nhau nhiu gia HN v HCM, ln lt l 35000 v 33000 /ngi/nm. Theo tng qun ti H Ni, lng c ph mua trung bnh mt ngi mt nm khng chnh lch nhau nhiu, cao nht qun Hong Mai l 689gram, thp nht Thanh Xun 411 gram. Gi tr mua trung bnh mt ngi mt nm cao nht l qun Hai B Trng v qun Cu Giy (39 nghn/ngi/nm), thp nht l qun Thanh Xun (27 nghn/ngi/nm). Hnh 25: Lng c ph mua vi ln/nm ti hai TP nm 2004
Lng mua u ng i (gr)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 H N i TP HCM

Gi tr mua u ng i (000)

Lng c ph mua cng gim dn t h c thu nhp cao n h c thu nhp thp c hai thnh ph (603 v 493 gr/ngi/nm HN v 497 v 423 gr/ngi/nm TP H Ch Minh). Mua c ph nhiu ln thng/tun

Lng c ph ca cc h mua nhiu ln trong thng hoc tun khc bit nhiu gia hai thnh ph. Lng c ph cc h ny mua TP H Ch Minh nhiu gp 1,45 ln so vi TP H Ni (2347 v 1617 gr/ngi/nm). Hnh 26: Lng c ph mua vi ln/thng hoc tun nm 2004

31

Lng mua u ng (gr) i 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua ng (000) u i

Vic mua c ph theo loi h khc nhau H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Ti H Ni, lng tiu th c ph ca c 3 nhm h: giu, trung bnh, ngho kh ng u, ln lt tng ng mc 1152, 1850, 1204 gram/ngi/nm, trong nhm h trung bnh tiu th nhiu hn 2 nhm kia. Ti TP H Ch Minh, mc tiu th trung bnh ca 3 nhm h kh cao, khong 2634 gram/ngi/nm. Tiu th ca 3 nhm h ln lt l giu 2951, trung bnh 1857 gram/ngi/nm. Mc ch mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004 V mc ch mua c ph, ti H Ni, khong 68% mua c ph cho tiu th hng ngy, 15,5% cho cc dp l Tt, khong 5% lm qu, cn li l cho cc s kin khc. Cn mc ch mua c ph ti TP HCM v c bn khc vi H Ni. C ph ch yu c mua tip khch, chim khong 78%. Mua c ph lm qu l 8% v khong 14% cho cc s kin khc. Hnh 27: Mc ch tiu dng c ph H Ni
200 150 100 50 0

Tiu th hng ngy

Lm qu

Khc

Dp l tt

32

Hnh 28: Mc ch mua c ph ti TP HCM

100 80 60 40 20 0 Tip khch Lm qu Khc

Ti H Ni, cc h tiu dng c ph hng ngy chim 68%, tiu dng trong dp l tt chim 15%, cn li l mua trong cc dp khc. Ti thnh ph HCM, ngc li so vi H Ni, s h tr li khng tiu dng c ph theo ma ln, chim 84%, cn h tr li c rt t, khong 16%. Nh vy, so vi H Ni, ngi tiu dng TP HCM c thi quen tiu dng c ph thng xuyn hn, khng phn bit theo ma. Cc loi c ph chnh Theo kt qu iu tra, cc loi c ph chnh c cc h H Ni v TP HCM tiu dng nhiu trong nm gm: c ph ha tan sa, c ph ha tan en, c ph bt, c ph bt hn hp. Ti H Ni, c ph ha tan sa c tiu dng nhiu nht, chim 44,1% s h iu tra, tip l c ph bt hn hp, chim 32,4%. Ti TP HCM, hai loi c ph ho tan sa v ho tan en c tiu dng nhiu, ln lt chim 24,7% v 20,2%. V nhn hiu c ph, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM cho bit v cc nhn hiu c ph ch yu m h mua bao gm: Trung Nguyn, Highlands, Vinacafe, Nescafe, Nestle v cc nhn hiu khc. Trong , c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn c tiu dng nhiu nht, chim khong 45% H Ni v khong 59% TP H Ch Minh. Thi im tiu th chnh V tiu th c ph theo ma, H Ni, ma tiu dng c ph chnh l vo cc dp l tt (62%) v ma ng (31%). Ti TP HCM, dp l Tt l thi im tiu dng c ph nhiu nht, chim 84,2%, cc thi im khc nh ma kh, ma ma, dp khc chim khng ng k, ln lt l 7%, 3,5% v 5,3%. 2.1.2. Tnh hnh c ph c cho/tng nm 2004 Thng k t s liu iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM cho thy, lng c ph c tng trn tng lng tiu th nm 2004 ca H Ni l 27%, TP HCM thp hn, khong 12%.

33

Hnh 29: % lng c ph c tng trn tng tiu th c ph nm 2004

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 H Ni TP HCM

Ti H Ni, lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng l 201 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr khong 14 nghn/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng t hn mt cht, khong 191 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr tng ng vi H Ni, 14 nghn/ngi/nm. Hnh 30: Tnh hnh c ph c cho tng nm 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr) 250 200 150 100 50 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

Phn theo nhm h, ti H Ni, nhm h giu c lng c ph bnh qun c biu tng l 269 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh v nhm h ngho ln lt l 198 gram/ngi/nm v 126 gram/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, nhm h giu c lng c ph c biu tng bnh qun l 297 gram/ngi/nm. Cn 2 nhm h trung bnh v ngho c lng c tng t hn so vi 2 nhm h ny ti H Ni, ln lt l 172 gram/ngi/nm v 101 gram/ngi/nm.

34

Hnh 31: Lng c ph c cho tng theo nhm h (gr/ngi/nm)

H Ni 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

V mt nhn hiu, cc nhn hiu c ph m cc h c biu tng phong ph, a dng hn cc nhn hiu c ph mua tng. l cc nhn hiu: Trung Nguyn, Highland, Vinacafe, Nescafe, Nestle, Capuchino, Davidoff v cc nhn hiu khc. Trong tng s 208 h c biu tng c ph H Ni, nhn hiu c ph Trung Nguyn vn chim a s, khong 36,5%, tip l cc nhn hiu Nescafe 19,7% v Vinacafe 15,9%. 2.1.3 C ph mua tng Nh trn cp, thng tin phn ny ch mang tnh cht tham kho v m t thy c xu hng. Trong s cc h iu tra ti H Ni, c 26.5% c ph c mua dng tng. Con s ny TP HCM l 31.4%. Ti H Ni, lng mua trung bnh u ngi l 114 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr bnh qun 7 nghn/ngi/nm. Hai qun Hai B Trng v Cu Giy c lng mua bnh qun u ngi cao nht ti H Ni, ln lt l 160 gram/ngi/nm v 133 gram/ngi/nm. Ti TP HCM, lng mua bnh qun u ngi cao hn H Ni, khong 182 gram/ngi/nm vi gi tr trung bnh khong 37 nghn/ngi/nm. TP HCM, qun Tn Ph c lng mua trung bnh u ngi cao nht, 365 gram/ngi/nm, tip l qun G Vp, 308 gram/ngi/nm.

35

Hnh 32: Tnh hnh mua c ph tng H Ni v TP HCM

g u L n m a un i (g ) g r

200 150 100 50 0

G t m a un i (0 0 ) i r u g 0

H N i

T H M P C

Phn theo loi h, lng mua bnh qun ca cc h giu ti H Ni l 131 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh l 119 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h ngho mua tng t nht, lng mua bnh qun ch c 36 gram/ngi/nm. Ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, nhm h giu c lng mua bnh qun tng rt cao, cao gp i so vi nhm h giu H Ni, 258 gram/ngi/nm. Nhm h trung bnh c lng mua l 179 gram/ngi/nm, nhm h ngho l 75 gram/ngi/nm. Nhn chung, c 3 nhm h, lng mua bnh qun tng ca cc h iu tra ti TP HCM nhiu hn hn so vi cc h c iu tra H Ni. Hnh 33: Lng mua c ph tng phn theo loi h (gr/ngi/nm)
H N a oi 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 G iu Trung bnh N gho TPH M C

V nhn hiu cc loi c ph mua tng, trong tng s 99 h mua c ph tng H Ni, c ti 35 h mua c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn, tip l Nescafe, khong 27 h. Ti TP HCM, tng s h mua tng l 120, trong 70 h (chim 58%) mua c ph nhn hiu Trung Nguyn. Nhn hiu c mua nhiu tip theo l Vinacafe vi khong 20 h (chim khong 17%). Kt qu iu tra cho thy nhn hiu c ph Trung Nguyn c mua nhiu nht, c bit l ti th trng TP HCM.

36

2.2. Tnh hnh tiu th c ph trong gia nh ca tng c nhn Cc thng tin trong phn ny ch yu xc nh mc , thi quen tiu th ca tng c nhn trong h gia nh iu tra. Nhng thng tin y ch c tnh cht xu hng v m t. Trong nm 2004, cc h iu tra H Ni rt t tiu th c ph ti nh, t l khng bao gi ung chim 48%. T l ny TP HCM chim t hn, khong 40%. Khong 16% s ngi c iu tra ti H Ni ung c ph ti nh trung bnh vi cc 1 nm, v 14% ung 1-3 cc/thng. Cn TP HCM th mc thng xuyn hn, t l ung 1 cc/ngy chim 13%, t l ung 2-3 cc/ngy chim khong 18%. Hnh 33: Tn sut tiu dng c nhn ti nh nm 2004
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Khng bao Vi 1 -3 1 -4 gi c c/n m c c/thng c c/tu n 4-6 1c c/ngy 2-3 c c/tu n c c/ngy Khc

TP HCM H Ni

V loi c ph, H Ni, loi c ph ch yu c tiu dng ti nh l c ph ho tan sa, chim 67%, tip theo l c ph bt en, 21%. Ti TP H Ch Minh, c ph bt en c tiu dng nhiu nht, 38%, tip theo l ho tan sa, 27% v bt sa, 20%. Nh vy, th hiu tiu dng c ph ti nh ca H Ni v TP HCM c i cht khc bit. iu ny cng cho thy tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu tm hiu s thch, th hiu ca tng a phng trong kinh doanh c ph.

37

Hnh 34: S ngi tiu dng cc loi c ph nm 2004

H Ni 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ho tan en Ho tan sa Bt en Bt sa TP HCM

Thi gian tiu th c ph c nhn ti nh cng thng l khng c nh i vi c H Ni v TP HCM, u chim khong 52%. Tip l tiu th vo bui sng, H Ni l khong 32%, TP HCM khong 39%. Lng tiu th c ph ti nh c 2 thnh ph so vi nm 2002 ni chung khng thay i nhiu. Trong s cc h c phng vn, khong 56% s ngi khng thay i tiu th t nm 2002 n 2004. Hnh 35: Thi gian tiu dng c ph c nhn ti nh nm 2004 (s ngi)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sng Tra C hiu Ti Khng c nh H N i TPH M C

3. Tnh hnh tiu th ngoi gia nh Ti H Ni, c ti 64% s h iu tra khng bao gi tiu dng ngoi, cc h tiu dng khong vi cc/nm hoc vi cc/thng chim t l nh hn ln lt l 13.3% v 11.6%. Ti TP HCM, s h khng bao gi tiu dng c ph bn ngoi nh hn so vi H Ni nhng vn chim a s, khong 53%. Cng khng c s chnh lch nhiu gia 2 nhm nam v n trong tiu dng c ph bn ngoi. Lng tiu th c ph bn ngoi theo tng mc ca 2 nhm ny gn tng ng nhau.

38

Hnh 36: S ngi tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh H Ni v TP HCM

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Khng bao gi Vi cc/nm 1-3 cc/thng 1-4 cc/tun 4-6 cc/tun 1 cc/ngy 2-3 cc/ngy Khc

TP HCM H Ni

V cc loi c ph c tiu dng bn ngoi nm 2004, cc h iu tra ch yu dng cc loi c ph bt en, bt sa v ha tan sa. Ti H Ni, s h tiu dng c ph bt en ngoi chim 45,5%, tip l c ph bt sa chim 30,3% v c ph ha tan sa chim 22,4%. thnh ph H Ch Minh, cc h iu tra ch yu tiu dng c ph bt en ngoi vi t l khong 61%, nhiu hn hn so vi c ph bt en H Ni. Loi c ph c a chung th nh l c ph bt sa, chim khong 30%. Cc h TP HCM ung rt t c ph ha tan sa, ch khong 2,8%, t hn rt nhiu so vi cc h H Ni. Nh vy, c th thy s khc bit r v th hiu cc loi c ph thng qua s h c iu tra 2 th trng H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Ngi tiu dng thnh ph H Ch Minh ch yu thch tiu dng cc loi c ph bt en bn ngoi, hu nh khng dng c ph ha tan sa. Trong khi , ngi tiu dng H Ni li c s thch a dng hn vi cc loi c ph bt en, bt sa v ha tan sa. i tng ch yu tiu th c ph bn ngoi l nhm h trung bnh c H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Hnh 37: Loi c ph c tiu dng ngoi nm 2004 ti H Ni v TP HCM
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Bt en Bt sa Ho tan en Ho tan sa Khc
H Ni TP HCM

39

Theo kt qu iu tra, thi im tiu th c ph bn ngoi ca c 2 i tng nam v n H Ni v TP HCM hu ht khng c nh. Bui ti l thi im c tiu th nhiu th hai, tip l bui sng. V thi v tiu th c ph bn ngoi, cc h c phng vn u ch yu tiu th quanh nm, khng vo ma no c nh. T l ny H Ni khong 66%, TP HCM chim khong 82%. Nm 2004, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni tiu th trung bnh 63,5 gr/ngi/nm, thp hn rt nhiu so vi mc 152 gr/ngi/nm ti TP H Ch Minh. Gi tr tiu th cng bin ng tng ng, mc 9150 v 21900 /ngi/tun ti H Ni v TP H Ch Minh. Bng: Lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh HN v TP HCM
H Ni Bin Lng (gr/ngi/nm) Gi tr (000/ngi/tun) S h 251 251 Trung bnh 63.46 9.15 TP H Ch Minh S h 295 295 Trung bnh 152 21.9

4. Kt qu phn tch quan h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th ti hai Thnh ph 4.1. Phn tch c ph tiu th trong gia nh Hnh 38: QH gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th H Ni

40

Hnh 39: QH gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th TP HCM

Hai biu trn cho thy v mt thng k m t, khng c mi quan h no gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun c hai thnh ph. C ngi c thu nhp thp v thu nhp cao u ch yu tiu th khong t 0 n 2000 gr c ph/nm. thnh ph HCM, s ngi c thu nhp di 5000 ng/thng chim a s, v mc d h ch yu tiu th di 2000 gr/nm, nhng s ngi tiu th t 2000 gr/nm n khong 8000 gr/nm chim s lng kh ln, khong 9% trong tng s. Trong khi phn ln ngi H Ni ung di 1800 gr/nm, s ngi ung trn 2000 gr/nm ch chim khong 3%. Tuy nhin, hnh v trn cng cho thy tng quan gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph H Ni ln hn TP HCM. Vic hu ht s mu tp trung ch yu gc bn tri ca hnh v c th do hai nguyn nhn, th nht, s mu iu tra cha ln v i din cho nhiu ngi c thu nhp cao thy c xu th tiu th ca h. Th hai, trn thc t, s ngi tiu th c ph ch yu l ngi c thu nhp trung bnh. C th thy c iu ny qua phn tch hi quy. Bng: Kt qu chy hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun H Ni
Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 5432318.02 1 5432318.02 Residual | 238713564 347 687935.342 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 244145882 348 701568.625 Number of obs F( 1, 347) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 349 7.90 0.0052 0.0223 0.0194 829.42

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

41

cons_HN_pc | .1649035 .0586828 2.81 0.005 .0494847 .2803223 _cons | 1036.923 54.45824 19.04 0.000 929.8129 1144.032 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti H Ni, c mi quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh mc tin cy 95%, vi ch s t=2.81 v P di 0.05. Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng tiu th c ph u ngi tng khong 0,164 n v. Tuy nhin, ch s R-squared rt thp, 0.023 cho thy ch c 2,23% thay i trong lng tiu th c ph c gii thch bng thay i bin ng ca thu nhp. Bng: Kt qu chy hi quy gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun TP HCM
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 350 -------------+-----------------------------F( 1, 348) = 1.96 Model | 2357683.37 1 2357683.37 Prob > F = 0.1622 Residual | 418287866 348 1201976.63 R-squared = 0.0056 -------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0027 Total | 420645549 349 1205288.11 Root MSE = 1096.3 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------income_pc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cons_HCM_pc | -.0831819 .0593928 -1.40 0.162 -.1999959 .0336322 _cons | 1468.974 73.89118 19.88 0.000 1323.644 1614.303 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy ti TP HCM, khng c quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh vi ch s t rt thp (1,4) v ch s P cao qu 0.05. iu ny cho thy ngi dn TP HCM tiu th nhiu hay t c ph khng ph thuc vo bin ng thu nhp. Tuy nhin, nh trn ni, do s mu h thu nhp cao t nn iu ny c th cha ng vi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao hn 10 triu ng/thng. Tuy nhin, vic mt s t mu ngi c thu nhp trn 10 triu ng/thng tiu th vn t c ph l do h khng c thi gian v c ph l mt thc ung mang tnh cht thng thc nhiu hn nn cn thi gian. V cng c th do y ch l kt qu hi quy lng tiu th c ph trong gia nh, trong khi nhng ngi c thu nhp cao thng khng c thi gian ung c ph ti gia nh. 4.2. Phn tch tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh Bng: Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung bnh ti HN
Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 17989726.5 1 17989726.5 Residual | 198963671 248 802272.867 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 216953397 249 871298.785 Number of obs F( 1, 248) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 250 22.42 0.0000 0.0829 0.0792 895.7

42

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol_year | 3.637118 .7680795 4.74 0.000 2.124327 5.149909 _cons | 1023.936 74.63793 13.72 0.000 876.9306 1170.941 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bng: Kt qu hi quy lng c ph tiu th ngoi gia nh vi thu nhp trung bnh ti TP HCM
Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 6265636.01 1 6265636.01 Residual | 393787845 293 1343985.82 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 400053481 294 1360726.13 Number of obs F( 1, 293) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 295 4.66 0.0316 0.0157 0.0123 1159.3

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------inc_pc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------cof_vol | 1.143923 .5297997 2.16 0.032 .1012281 2.186619 _cons | 1287.619 105.1137 12.25 0.000 1080.746 1494.493 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy quan h gia lng tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi c ngha mc tin cy 95% c hai thnh ph vi gi tr t ln v gi tr P nh. H Ni mi quan h gia hai bin ny cht hn. Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm tng khong 3,63 n v. Mi quan h gia 2 bin ny TP HCM mc d c ngha thng k nhng khng ln lm, Khi thu nhp tng 1 n v th lng c ph ung ngoi gia nh hng nm ch tng 1,14 n v. II. KT QU IU TRA QUN 1. c im qun Theo kt qu iu tra cc qun c ph, cc qun c ph H Ni ra i sm hn TP HCM. C th H Ni, cc qun ra i cch y khong 12 nm, trong khi TP HCM, cc qun ra i cch y khong 4 nm. V mt quy m, qun H Ni nh hn TP HCM. Ti H Ni, din tch trung bnh ca qun khong 100m2. Mi qun c khong 26 bn v 9 nhn vin phc v. Cn ti TP HCM, din tch trung bnh ca mi qun rng gn gp i qun H Ni, khong 175m2. Trung bnh mi qun TP HCM c khong 56 bn vi 23 nhn vin. Cc qun c ph TP HCM bn cc loi mt hng a dng hn H Ni. Ti H Ni, trung bnh cc qun ch bn khong 9 loi nc gii kht. Cn ti TP HCM, cc qun bn trung bnh ti 40 loi.

43

i tng khch hng ca cc qun c 2 thnh ph gm nhiu thnh phn: thanh nin, sinh vin, cn b, gii kinh doanh. Khch hng H Ni ch yu l sinh vin, thanh nin, cn b. Ti TPHCM, nhm khch hng ch yu l thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh doanh. Hnh 40: Doanh thu ca cc qun c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2002 v 2004 (000/qun/nm)
2004

3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 H Ni H Ch Minh

2002

2. Tnh hnh mua c ph Cc qun c ph ch yu mua c ph bt, loi ln v Arabica v kinh doanh. Ti H Ni, cc qun thng mua loi c ph khng hng v, trong khi cc qun TP HCM li mua loi c hng v. cng l mt s khc bit v th hiu tiu dng c ph ti 2 thnh ph. Ngun gc cc loi c ph m cc qun ly v kinh doanh ch yu t 2 vng sn xut c ph ln ca Vit Nam l k Lk v Lm ng. Cc nh cung cp c ph cho cc qun ch yu l cc nh bun bn t nhn ti thnh ph v mt s doanh nghip. V mt nhn hiu, cc nhn hiu c ph ch yu c mua kinh doanh trong cc qun ti TP HCM l Trung Nguyn, Bin Ho, Pht t. Ti H Ni, cc nhn hiu ph bin l Mai, Trung Nguyn, Thu H. Lng mua vo ti cc qun c ph H Ni thp hn TP HCM, trung bnh l 100 v 133 kg/qun/nm, cho thy lng tiu th ca cc qun TP HCM c th ln hn H Ni.

44

Hnh 41: Lng mua c ph ti hai thnh ph nm 2004 (kg/nm)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 H Ni TP HCM

Lng mua c ph cng khc bit gia cc quy m qun. Cc qun c ph ln mua trung bnh 122 kg, ln gp gn 2 ln qun c ph trung bnh v gp 10 ln qun c ph quy m nh. Hnh 42: Lng mua c ph ti 2 TP theo loi qun (kg/nm)

250 200 150 100 50 0 Ln Trung bnh Nh

3. Tnh hnh bn c ph. Lng c ph bn hng ngy ti cc qun iu tra TP H Ch Minh ln hn H Ni rt nhiu. Trung bnh H Ni, 1 qun c ph bn c khong 20 cc, trong khi TP HCM, trung bnh 1 qun bn c khong 30 cc. V mc gi TP HCM cng cao hn H Ni khong 3-4000 /cc.

45

Hnh 43: Tnh hnh bn c ph ti hai thnh ph

Gi (000/cc) Lng cc bn/ngy

30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

H Ni

TP HCM

Ti cc qun c ph H Ni v TP HCM, cc loi c ph bn chnh l en nng, nu nng, Arabica. H Ni, cc qun thng bn c ph bt en vo bui sng v bt nu vo bui tui. Nhng TP HCM th li khc bit i cht, cc qun bn mt loi c ph bt en vo c bui sng v ti. V i tng khch hng, 2 nhm khch hng chnh ti H Ni l sinh vin/bn b v cn b. Nhm khch hng u tin thng dng loi c ph bt nu ti qun. Cn nhm th hai li ch yu dng c ph bt en. Ti TP HCM th cc i tng khch hng u thch ung c ph bt en ti qun, c bit l gii thanh nin. Nhm khch hng l ph n, tr em, hc sinh rt t ung c ph ti qun. Theo iu tra ca Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn i vi 2000 khch hng trong v ngoi qun c ph th trong s cc loi ung, c ph ng vai tr kh quan trng. H ung 7 ln/tun. Trong s cc loi nc ung ti qun, c ti 43% s khch c hi ti qun ung c ph.
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
kh ie t Tr a co n qu a Su a go ph oc n ho a co ca in h uo ng lo a ik ha c t e

Nu

oc

Nu

Bi a/ th

uc

Nha

Quan

Nha/Quan

Ngun: Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn (2003)

Nu

oc t

46

V cc loi c ph c bn ti qun, trong 2004 khch hng c hi th c 71 thng hiu c nhc n u tin. Trong thng hiu c khch hng nhc n nhiu nht, lp li nhiu nht ng u l c ph Trung Nguyn (chim 80%), ng th nh l Nescafe chim 6%, ng th ba l Vinacafe chim 2%. Nhng thng hiu c ph va c ni trn l nhng thng hiu c bit n hu ht trn ton quc, do c s lng khch hng bit n nhiu. 100 80 60 40 20 0
T.Nguyen Vina TPHCM Nes Ha Noi Cafe BMT Da Nang Can Tho Mehyco Me Trang

Ngun: Cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn (2003) iu tra ca Trung Nguyn cng cho thy khch hng vo qun c ph chim s ng nht l gii sinh vin hc sinh chim 26,1%. Tip theo khch hng l i tng bun bn/c s ngh chim 15,6%. Khch hng l i tng cng nhn vin ni chung bao gm: cty nh nc, cty trong nc, cty lin doanh c 766 ngi, chim 38,2%.

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CHNG IV. KT LUN V KHUYN NGH

1. Kt lun C ph c ngha quan trng i vi nhiu quc gia trn th gii. V mt kinh t, ngnh hng c ph ng gp trung bnh 20% tng kim ngch xut khu cho nhiu nc sn xut c ph. V mt x hi, sn xut v bun bn c ph gip to cng n vic lm cho hng chc triu ngi trn th gii, gip gim t l i ngho, bt bnh ng ca nhiu quc gia. Hn th na, c ph cn l biu tng, nim am m ca nhiu ni th gii. l thi k hong kim ca c ph khi gi ln cao n nh im. Tuy nhin, khi th trng c ph ri vo khng hong na cui thp k 90 th k XX, gi c ph th gii xung n mc thp k lc trong vng 4 thp k qua, nh hng nghim trng n li ch ngnh c ph ni chung v hng chc triu ngi tham gia vo chui ngnh hng c ph. Mt nguyn nhn quan trng dn n cuc khng hong ny l s mt cn bng cung cu c ph th gii. Khi gi tng mnh t ngt do Brazin mt ma ln v sng mui, hng lot nc sn xut c ph c bit l nc sn xut c ph Robusta nh Vit nam m rng din tch trng c ph t, sn lng c ph tng nhanh trong khi cu tiu th c ph cc nc trn th gii vo thi im hu nh khng thay i. Trong nhng nm gn y, tc tng cu tiu th c ph trong nc t khong 1,5%/nm, c bit l cc nc xut khu c ph nh Brazin, Indonesia v n . Cu tiu th c ph ca Brazin nm 2004 t ti 4,01 kg/ngi/nm, mc cao nht k t thp nin 60. Nh vy, Brazin c th ch ng c ngun tiu th c ph, ngay c trong nhng thi im gi th gii xung thp. l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin cho nhm nghin cu Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT tin hnh nghin cu tiu th c ph trong nc ti 2 thnh ph ln, xc nh xu th, thi quen v tim nng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam, trn c s xut ra mt s chnh sch v chin lc tng cng tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam. 1.1. iu tra h gia nh Tiu th trong gia nh Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, tiu th c ph u ngi hai thnh ph ln nm 2004 ca Vit Nam vn mc rt thp trn th gii. Mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi TP H Ch Minh l 1651 gr/ngi/nm v H Ni l 752 gr/ngi/nm. So vi nm 2002, mc d tn sut mua c ph nm 2004, lng c ph tiu th bnh qun trong gia nh c hai thnh ph nm 2004 u tng vi s lng ln. Lng tiu th TP HCM tng 21% trong 2 nm, trong khi mc tng ca H Ni t khong 25% nhng do xut pht im thp hn nn nm 2004, lng tiu th tuyt i H Ni vn thp hn TP HCM rt nhiu. Mc tng trong 2 nm 2 thnh ph l do cht lng c ph c ci thin,

48

nhn thc ca ngi dn v thnh phn dinh dng v tc dng tt i vi sc kho v lng qu tng bng c ph nhiu hn. Phn tch cho thy ti H Ni, c mi quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh mc tin cy 95%. Trong khi , ti TP HCM, khng c quan h c ngha gia thu nhp v lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trong gia nh vi ch s t rt thp (1,4) v ch s P cao qu 0.05. iu ny cho thy ngi dn TP HCM tiu th nhiu hay t c ph khng ph thuc vo bin ng thu nhp. Tiu th c ph trong gia nh c chia thnh hai loi: lng mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh v lng c ph c cho/tng. V tnh hnh mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh, c ti hn 20% v 14% s ngi c iu tra H Ni v TP HCM khng bao gi mua c ph cho tiu th trong gia nh. H Ni, hu ht cc h c iu tra (70%) ch mua c ph vi ln trong mt nm; trong khi TP HCM c ti 53% s h c iu tra mua c ph vi ln/thng hoc tun. iu ny cng gii thch ti sao mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi TP HCM hn H Ni. Lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh ti H Ni t khong 551 gr/ngi/nm so vi mc 1461 gr/ngi/nm ca TP HCM. Lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh H Ni gim dn t l thun theo mc thu nhp ca cc h. Trong khi , TP HCM, s liu m t cho thy lng mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh nhm ngho thm ch cn cao hn cht t so vi nhm thu nhp trung bnh. i vi 70% s ngi mua c ph vi ln/nm H Ni, tng lng mua khong 566 gr/ngi/nm, cao hn i cht so vi mc 481 gr/ngi/nm TP HCM. i vi cc h mua c ph vi ln/thng hoc tun, lng mua TP HCM nhiu gp 1,45 ln so vi TP HCM. V mc ch mua c ph, ti H Ni, cc h ch yu mua c ph cho tiu th hng ngy, cho cc dp l Tt. Ti TP HCM, ch yu c mua tip khch, chim khong 78%. Cc loi c ph chnh c cc h H Ni v TP HCM tiu dng nhiu trong nm gm: c ph ha tan sa, c ph ha tan en, c ph bt, c ph bt hn hp. V nhn hiu c ph, cc h c iu tra ti H Ni v TP HCM ch yu mua c ph Trung Nguyn, Highlands, Vinacafe, Nescafe, Nestle. V tnh hnh c cho/tng c ph, lng c ph c cho/tng H Ni ch chim khong 27% trong tng lng tiu th trong khi con s ny TP HCM l khong 12%. Lng c ph c cho/tng ti H Ni v TP HCM ln lt l 201 v 191 gr/ngi/nm. Lng c ph c cho/tng gim dn theo mc thu nhp. Cc loi c ph chnh c cho tng cc h l c ph Trung Nguyn, Highland, Vinacafe, Nescafe... Tiu th ngoi gia nh

Cc h TP HCM tiu th ngoi gia nh nhiu hn H Ni, ch yu ung 2-3 cc/ngy tr ln. Ngi tiu dng H Ni ung nhiu c ph bt (en&sa) v ho tan sa; cn cc h TPHCM li ch yu ung c ph bt, cc qun c ph. 49

Nhn hiu c tiu th ch yu l cc hng sn xut trong nc nh Trung Nguyn, Vinacafe, Mai Nhm i tng ung c ph l cn b cng chc ch yu ti H Ni. Nhm ngi kinh doanh l nhm tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh c H Ni v TP HCM. Kt qu chy hi quy cho thy quan h gia lng tiu th c ph ngoi gia nh v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi c ngha mc tin cy 95% c hai thnh ph vi gi tr t ln v gi tr P nh. 1.2. iu tra qun c ph: Qun c ph H Ni ra i sm hn, quy m nh hn v chuyn mn ho cao hn HCM. Ngun cung ch yu cho cc qun c ph kinh doanh l Doanh nghip & ngi bun bn trong nc. C ph xut x t 2 vng sn xut ln ca Vit Nam (??). Cc qun ch yu mua c ph bt, ln v Arabica kinh doanh. So vi nm 2002, lng mua c ph cho kinh doanh ca cc qun thp hn nm 2004. Lng mua c ph ca cc qun H Ni cng thp hn TP HCM. Cc qun ch yu bn en nng, nu nng v Arabica (rt t ho tan), c bit cc qun TP HCM ch a chung mua c ph bt en. S khch ung c ph trong nm 2002 t hn so vi nm 2004. Khch hng H Ni ch yu l sinh vin, thanh nin, cn b, TPHCM l thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh doanh. Cc qun c ph cng a ra nhng kin ring, nhng gii php gip pht trin cng vic kinh doanh, bao gm: Tng cht lng, gim gi thnh, qung co, phc v tt 2. Khuyn ngh i vi cc B ngnh Thng xuyn tin hnh iu tra mc tng cu trong nc, xu hng v i tng tiu th. Thit lp nhm chuyn gia xy dng chin lc tiu th c ph ni a, hc tp kinh nghim pht trin th trng trong nc ca cc t chc quc t v cc nc tiu th ln khc, c bit l nc sn xut. Chnh ph cn h tr v ti chnh cho chng trnh XTTM TT c ph trong nc v CT pht trin ton din c ph bn vng. Cn a ni dung XTTM trong nc trong ni dung pht trin tng th ngnh c ph pht trin bn vng, c bit tr trng n phng thc qun l v nh hng. Chnh ph cn h tr cc doanh nghip, ngi kinh doanh c ph trong nc trin khai chng trnh XTTM (v k thut v phng thc t chc) 50

Mt s xut cho chin lc pht trin th trng trong nc: Chn v c chin lc phn loi i tng ph hp: Gii tr, gii kinh doanh (tr trng c ph bt, cht lng cao, c hng v HCM), Vn phng, c quan nh nc (HN): tr trng c ph ho tan, c hng v Chn thi im thch hp: H Ni th nn vo ma ng, dp l tt v ma thi; HCM: vo dp l tt v ma thi. H Ni: nn lp cc qun c ph chuyn mn ho; HCM: nn a dng ho cc loi nc ung thu ht khch kt hp chng trnh khuyn mi ung c ph Doanh nghip nn thnh lp cc dy chuyn sn xut c ph cht lng cao phc v nhu cu: tt c cc khu trong chui ngnh hng; hng ti ng k chng ch xut s hoc thng hiu. u t cng ngh ch bin c ph ho tan t c ph Robusta l th mnh ca VN. Doanh nghip cn ch trng thu mua t nhiu ngun sn xut c ph trong nc, c bit l c ph Arabica min ni pha Bc.

51

SCH THAM KHO

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Bo co Nghin cu ngnh c ph, 6/2004, Ngn hng Th gii Bo co nghin cu kh nng cnh tranh ca c ph Robusta Vit Nam, 2003, SDC-MISPA Bo co nn ngnh hng c ph Vit Nam, 2004, ICARD-MISPA Bo co nghin cu nh gi tc ng ca thc tin s dng u vo cho sn xut c ph k Lk, 2005, Trn Th Qunh Chi v cng s Bo co kt qu iu tra ca cng ty c ph Trung Nguyn, 2003 C ph Vit Nam, 1999, on Triu Nhn v cng s Surendra Kotecha, 2001, Commentary: The1st ICO World Conference and Report of Proceedings

52