7

Chng 1 KHI NIM CHUNG V TI NGUYN NC

1.1 Th no l ti nguyn nc?

Ti nguyn thin nhin l cc dng vt cht, nng lng, thng tin c gi tr t thn, th hin qua cc c tnh c, l, ho, sinh... ca chng m con ngi bit hoc cha bit, tn ti khch quan v tun theo nhng quy lut t nhin nht nh, m con ngi c th s dng c trong hin ti hoc tng lai. Theo Thut ng thu vn v mi trng nc, ti nguyn nc l lng nc trn mt vng cho hoc lu vc, biu din dng nc c th khai thc (nc mt v nc di t). iu 2 Lut Ti nguyn nc Vit Nam (1998) quy nh "Ti nguyn nc (ca Vit Nam) bao gm cc ngun nc mt, nc ma, nc di t, nc bin thuc lnh th Vit Nam". R rng, ti nguyn nc ca mt lnh th l ton b lng nc c trong m con ngi c th khai thc s dng c, xt c v mt lng v cht, cho sinh hot, sn xut, trong hin ti v tng lai. Nc l dng ti nguyn c bit. N va l thnh phn thit yu ca s sng v mi trng, quyt nh s tn ti, pht trin ca x hi, va c th mang tai ha n cho con ngi. Nc c kh nng t ti to v lng, v cht v v nng lng. J.A.Jonnes chia ti nguyn nc thnh ba loi: Ti nguyn tim nng tng lai, l ton b lng nc c trn Tri t m trong iu kin hin nay loi ngi hu nh cha c kh nng khai thc, nh nc ngm nm rt su, nc trong bng tuyt hai cc, nc bin v i dng Ti nguyn tim nng thc ti, l lng nc c trong lnh th, nhng trng thi t nhin con ngi kh khai thc v c nguy c b n gy hi, hoc xy ra ri ro, v d nh nc l, nc ngm nm su Ti nguyn hin thc ca mt vng, l khi nim trng vi quan im truyn thng hin nay, ch ton b lng nc c trong cc thu vc mt v ngm m con ngi d dng khai thc s dng. Gio trnh ny gii hn ni dung trnh by vo nhng vn lin quan n loi th hai v th ba tc ti nguyn nc lc a. T y v sau, cc loi nc ny s c gi theo quy c l ti nguyn nc.
Hp 1.1. Mt s i lng biu th ti nguyn nc 1. Mc nc H (cm): L cao mt nc so vi mt mt chun quy c bt k (tng i), hoc mt bin trung bnh (tuyt i). H cho bit v tr mt nc, cung cp thng tin v lng nc, dng chy, kh nng khai thc, cp nc v ri ro. H tng i dng nghin cu cc vn v nc ti im o. H tuyt i cho php nh gi cc vn v nc ti ni o c v so snh, lp tng quan gia cc s liu o c nhng im khc nhau. 2. su h (m): L khong cch t mt nc ti y theo phng thng ng. h cho bit thng tin lin quan ti lng nc, c tnh thu lc, kh

nng t lm sch, ch nhit ca dng chy... su c o bng thc, dy ti tng im, hoc bng my o lin tc theo tuyn. 3. Vn tc V (m/s): V biu th mc chy, ng nng ca dng nc, mc cc oan ca ch dng chy. Vi cng mt lu lng, V t l nghch vi din tch mt ct hot ng v iu chnh V c th thay i din tch mt ct hot ng bng cc gii php khc nhau. 4. Lu lng nc Q (m3/s, l/s): L lng nc chuyn qua mt ct ngang ca dng chy trong thi gian mt giy. Q nc biu th lng v ng nng ca dng chy trong sng. 3 3 5. Tng lng nc W = Q. T (m , km ), l lng nc chy qua mt ct ngang dng chy trong thi on nghin cu. W c trng tt nht cho lng nc c trong lu vc. Trong cng iu kin hnh thnh dng chy, din tch lu vc (F) cng ln, W sinh ra trn v chy trong sng cng ln. W c dng tnh ton cn bng, iu tit, phn phi s dng nc. 6. M un dng chy M = Q/F (l/s.km2) biu th trung bnh lng nc hnh 2 thnh trn mt n v din tch lu vc (km ), trong mt n v thi gian (s), chy v v o c ti im nghin cu. M c trng cho kh nng sinh thu ca lu vc, dng so snh kh nng sinh thu ca cc lu vc khc nhau, xy dng bn ti nguyn nc. 7. Lp dng chy, tc su dng chy Y = W/F (mm) c trng cho kh nng sinh thu ca lu vc, gip so snh kh nng sinh thu ca cc lu vc, xy dng bn ti nguyn nc v tnh cn bng nc. 8. Mc m bo v nc nht (m3/ngi/nm): L lng dng chy bnh qun u ngi nm, c gi tr ph thuc vo iu kin kh hu thu vn t nhin v gim theo s tng dn s.

Nc c vai tr to ln trong cc qu trnh trn Tri t: Tham gia thnh to b mt Tri t. Tham gia vo qu trnh hnh thnh thi tit, phn phi nhit m theo khng gian, thi gian, iu ho kh hu. Hp th mt lng ng k CO2, to iu kin n nh CO2 kh quyn. Tham gia hnh thnh th nhng v thm thc vt. L mi trng cho cc phn ng ho sinh to cht mi, chuyn dch vt cht, to m khong. L ni khi ngun s sng v mi trng sng ca thu sinh vt. Thu vc nc c nhng chc nng, gi tr a dng sau: Trc tip duy tr s sng ca con ngi v sinh vt. L ngun cung cp loi vt cht cn thit cha th thay th trong nhiu qu trnh sn xut, kinh t, x hi. L ni nhn, cha, x l cht thi lm sch mi trng. L ng giao thng v ngun cung cp nng lng. L mt thnh t t nhin khng th thiu ca cnh quan, to nn tnh h thng, hon chnh, nht th ca n v cc qu trnh din ra trong n, t to ra cc gi tr khoa hc, vn ho, thm m, phong thu Cc gi tr s dng trn ca nc khng hon ton song hnh, m c th c nhng i nghch, trit tiu nhau v vic khai thc mt chc nng no c th dn n lm gim hoc mt hn nhng chc nng cn li. Do vy gi tr tng hp ca ti nguyn khng phi l php cng s hc cc gi tr trn v vic s dng hp l, hiu qu ti nguyn nc l mt bi ton v cng phc tp. Nhiu cng ng v ang c xu th khai thc qu mc mt vi chc

nng no ca ti nguyn nc a phng, gy tn thng ton h thng, suy gim, thm ch trit tiu cc chc nng cn li ca n. Nhiu hot ng nhn to ang lm tn thng iu kin hnh thnh thi tit, kh hu, thu vn t nhin tm v m v ton cu, lm thay i cc quy lut hnh thnh, bin i ti nguyn nc vn tng i n nh, gy bt li cho cc i tng s dng. Thc tin dng nc ca mt a phng ph thuc: 1- c im, tnh cht ca ti nguyn (nh s lng, cht lng, phn b theo thi gian v khng gian, kh nng t phc hi). 2- c im ca i tng dng nc (nhu cu, thi quen, nhn thc, nng lc, kh nng ti chnh, cng ngh). Vic ngi dn dng loi nc no, dng nh th no ph thuc trc tin vo kh nng ca h c th u t ban u v chi tr thng k mc no. Ngoi ra, n cng ph thuc ng k vo thi quen cng ng v vn ho truyn thng. C nhng nhm c dn ch chp nhn s dng mt s loi nc no cho sinh hot theo thi quen, v d nh pha ch bng nc ging lng, n bng nc ma, ung bng nc ma khng un si C l cu ca dao Tot mt l ti hng nh cng nn c hiu ng hn l ...ti dng nc ging nh nhim ra mt Nc cng khan him, gi nc cng cao v mt bng kinh t cng pht trin th gi thnh nc cao s cng d c chp nhn. S pht trin nhanh ca khoa hc cng ngh s gip tm ra nhng cch r tin hn khai thc nc t cc ngun khc nhau, dn ti nhng loi nc km ph hp, hoc kh khai thc, s c a vo s dng nhiu hn.
Bng 1.2. Khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc tim nng Nc l khi c gi li trong cc kho nc pht in, phc v ti, giao thng s tr thnh ti nguyn. iu tit dng chy bng kho nc i hi phi c k thut cng ngh v ngun lc ti chnh ban u ln nn khng d c la chn v khng phi cng ng no cng thc hin c. Nc mn c th c ngt ho, tr thnh ngun cp quan trng, nhiu khi l duy nht cho mt s vng khan him nc. Trn th gii hin c trn 1.800 im ngt ho nc vi quy m v cng ngh khc nhau. C mt cng ngh ngt ho nc n gin c dn gian p dng t lu, nh xy b cha nc mn c mi bng knh, nc bc hi ln gp knh s ngng t, chy theo dc v mng hng. Sa mc kh hn nht th gii Atacama - Chi L c mt loi sng m t Thi Bnh Dng mang theo nhiu hi nc. Dn lng Cgungundo khai thc c mi ngy 11.000 lt nc ngt bng cch cng 75 chic mn polypropylene, mi ci di 12 mt, rng 4 mt, cch mt t 2 mt n gi m v to ra nc ngng t. Mt s dn tc v quc gia, nh Ixraen, Lin X, M, n ... s dng thnh cng nc c khong ho cao ti lin tc trong thi gian di, m khng gy thoi ho t. Nguyn tc chung khi dng nc mn ti l phi thu ht nc tha, khng cho chng bc hi lm mn t, khng cho chng ngm xung su lm dng mc nc ngm ti mc tng mao dn c th ln st mt t, lm nc ngm bay hi gy mn t. Nc mn cng ang c nghin cu s dng trc tip cho sn xut trong mt s cng ngh c bit, nh lm ngui my... Bng 1.3. Mt s phng php phn loi nc 1. Phn loi theo khong ho (KH): Phn loi chung: Nht - KH <1g/l ; L - KH 1 - 25g/l ; Mn - KH >25g/l. Phn loi nc nht: KH thp <200mg/l; KH trung bnh 200 - 500mg/l; KH cao 500 - 1.000mg/l v KH rt cao >1.000mg/l. 2. Phn loi theo cng: Thang cng thng thng H(me/l) c nm loi: Rt mm, H < 1,5 ; mm, H = 1,5 - 3,0; hi cng, H = 3,0 - 6,0; cng, H = 6,0 - 9,0; rt cng, H > 9,0. o o o Thang cng c (1 = 10mg mui Ca + Mg quy v Oxit canxi /l) c nm loi: rt mm < 4 ; mm 4 - 8 ; TB o o o 8 - 18 ; cng 18 - 30 , rt cng > 30 . 3. Phn loi ca Aliokin theo thnh phn ho hc: Phn lp theo 3 anion chnh: Lp bicacbonat + cacbonat ( HCO3 + CO3 , KH nh; Lp sunphat ( SO4 S); Lp clorua (Cl ), c KH ln. Phn lp thnh 3 nhm theo cation chnh: Nhm canxi (Ca++); Nhm magi (Mg++); Nhm kali + natri (Na+ +

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K+). Phn nhm thnh 4 kiu theo tng quan gia cc ion: Kiu I: HCO3 >Ca++ + Mg++, KH nh, thng thuc v thu vc lu thng t, phong ho macma, trao i ++ ++ + Ca v Mg thnh Na Kiu II: HCO3 < Ca++ + Mg++< HCO3 + SO4 sng, h, ngm. Kiu III: HCO3 + SO4 ngm.

, KH trung bnh, thng lin quan vi trm tch, macma, nc

< Ca++ + Mg++ hoc

Cl > Na+, KH thng cao, gp trong cc liman, h, nc

Kiu IV: HCO3 = 0, nc axit, thng gp m ly, hm m...

1.2

Ngun gc nc t nhin

C rt nhiu cc gi thuyt c a ra gii thch s pht sinh v tn ti ca nc trong t nhin. Mi gi thuyt ph hp vi c im v mt lng v cht ca mt loi nc no . Do cha c gi thuyt no ph hp nht vi mi loi nc, nn hin nay nhiu gi thuyt vn song song tn ti. Di y l mt s gi thuyt ng ch nht. Ngun gc nguyn sinh ca nc l gi thuyt c nhiu ngi cng nhn nht, theo khi Tri t c hnh thnh t khi kh bi v tr nng bng co li, ngui i, th phn ng gia hyro v xy sinh ra hi nc, to thnh mt m my dy c bao ph Tri t. Khi nhit h thp, cc m my bin thnh nc, gy ra mt trn ma nh trt trong sut 60.000 nm, lm y cc vng trng b mt t v ngui lnh t. Ngy nay qu trnh phun tro v ngui i ca macma t lng t vn tip tc sinh ra loi nc ny nhng khng ng k v cn bng vi lng nc mt i trong cc qu trnh phong ho vt cht v b gi li trong trm tch. Do mc nc bin v lng nc trn Tri t gn nh khng thay i. Thuyt ngng t cho rng hi nc dch chuyn theo cc dng kh gia cc l hng trong t, gp iu kin thun li s ngng t. Trong iu kin kh hu kh hn, dng chuyn dch hi nc t kh quyn vo tng t thong kh l ngun cp m quan trng cho h sinh thi a phng. Thuyt chn vi l gii vic mt s m nc di t c thnh phn ho hc rt gn vi nc bin, c ngun gc bin c, b chn vi trong qu trnh kin to a cht. Thuyt trm tch cho rng mt s loi nc c khong ho cao trong cc thu vc mt v ngm, c th c ngun gc khong cht t s ho tan trong qu trnh chy trn trn t, thm qua t v cha trong t, hoc do tch lu mui khong t qu trnh bc hi lin tc trong iu kin kh hu kh hn.

1.3

Th tn ti ca nc, tnh cht v ngha

Trong bin nhit Tri t, nc tn ti c c ba th rn, lng, hi v d dng chuyn ho c t th ny sang th khc. y l mt d thng tnh cht l hc qu bu khin nc tr thnh hp cht ho hc c vai tr quan trng trong nhiu lnh vc t nhin, x hi v khp kn tun hon nc. Khi p sut tng, nc c im ng bng gim, im si tng. su 4.000m trong thu vc, khi nhit nc <-3oC nc vn cha ng bng. y cng l nguyn nhn gp phn lm thu vc khng bng cng hon ton trong cc vng nc su. Hi nc trong kh quyn l yu t khp kn tun hon nc v phn phi m theo khng gian, hp th bc x sng di, gp phn to ra hiu ng nh knh, cung cp 1/3 nng lng cho s hnh thnh tun hon kh quyn, to bin nhit l tng cho s sng v cc qu trnh t

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nhin khc; Hi nc trong kh quyn to ra hiu ng nh knh ln gp gn hai ln hiu ng gy nn bi cc kh nh knh cn li; Khng c hi nc, nhit trung bnh Tri t s thp hn hin nay 16oC. Trong vng kh hn hi nc l ngun m quan trng, gp phn hnh thnh nc ngng t duy tr s sng. Nc ng bng th n ra, tng 11% th tch, gim t trng, nn lun ni trn mt nc. Khi nc trong cc l hng ng bng, s trng n lm l hng v rng hn, tc ng tch cc vo qu trnh phong ho vt l v h tr cho cc qu trnh phong ho ho hc, xi mn. Nu nc ng bng trong khng gian kn, s xut hin p lc d cc ln, c kh nng ph v mi kt cu bao bc, lm nt v cc tng nham thch cha nc, cc v b gy cht thc vt v lm tng phong ho vt l t to l hng, khe nt, hoc vt cht b ri. Nc lng tn ti nhiu dng, nhng ch c nc mng, mao dn, trng lc l c kh nng dch chuyn tt v h sng tiu th c, nn thc s c ngha l ti nguyn. Nc mng tn ti quanh cc ht t nh tc ng ca lc lin kt vt l (hp ph), nc mao dn hnh thnh v c duy tr trong cc mao mch, l hng nh, nh tc ng ca lc mao dn. Chng u c vai tr to m cho tng t thong kh, cp nc cho bc hi v thc vt. Nc c nhit dung ring cao, h qu l: 1- Trong cng mt iu kin t nhin bin nhit ca khi nc nh hn nhiu so vi bin nhit ca khng kh v t , to iu kin thun li cho s sng ca thu sinh v vi kh hu. 2- Khi b t nng khi nc tch nhit, cn khi ngui i s to nhit, gip iu ho nhit nng theo thi gian, to vi kh hu; Khi chuyn dch theo phng kinh , dng nc s to ra s phn phi li nhit nng theo phng chuyn dch v gp phn hnh thnh cc c im kh hu a phng. Xch i, min b Mt Tri t nng mnh nht, li khng phi l min kh nng nht, bi vng ny hu ht l i dng, nhit nng b hp th lm nc bc hi hoc t nng khi nc v theo dng nc nng i khi khu vc. Cc dng bin lnh gy kh hn b Ty, dng nng gy m t b ng cc lc a. Ch ring dng Gnxtrim cung cp cho mi cm2 b bin chu u 4 t Kcal/nm, tng ng lng nhit to ra khi t 0,5 triu tn than. Mt nc t cc i ti 4oC v gim khi nhit gim t 4oC xung 0oC. Nc truyn nhit phn t km v n ra khi ng bng, do ti cc tng nc su nhit nc khng xung di 4oC v bng lun ni trn mt nc. H qu l to ng giao thng trn bng, lu thng nc di bng, ngun cp nc lin tc v mi trng sng lin tc cho cc loi thu sinh x lnh trong ma ng. D thng bin i mt theo nhit to ra hai kiu i lu nhit khc nhau trong khi nc: Trn 4oC, i lu nhit xy ra khi mt nhit v lnh i t trn mt hoc nng ln v c cp nhit t y (trng hp rt t gp). Di 4oC, i lu nhit xy ra khi c cp nhit v nng ln t trn mt. Mi qu trnh i lu u c vai tr ng nht ho cc c trng l, ho, sinh khc nhau ca khi nc, to thun li cho nhiu qu trnh t nhin, c bit l s sng. Nc c kh nng ho tan cc cht cao, to thun li cho cc phn ng ho hc v chuyn dch vt cht trong mi trng.

1.4

Tun hon nc t nhin

Tun hon nc l qu trnh nc t vn ng khp kn, t bc hi do b t nng bi bc x Mt Tri, chuyn dch theo dng kh do chnh lch p sut, mt , n ngng t sinh

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ma ri xung mt t, to dng chy trn mt hoc trong t, vo li sng v chy n cc thu vc ni n bc hi di tc ng ca trng lc. Tun hon nc din ra lin tc trn quy m ton cu, nhng phn ho v quy m theo vng a l. Lng ma hng nm lc a l 111.000km3. N c ngun gc t bc hi trc tip l 70.000km3, hi nc n t i dng l 41.000km3 v to ra khong 41.000km3 dng chy hon tr cho i dng. Lng dng chy ny chnh l kh nng ti to v lng ca ti nguyn nc. H thng thu vn ton cu gm 4 kiu kho cha t nhin l: i dng, thu vc lc a, bng, kh quyn v dng trao i gia chng ( c ba th rn, lng, hi). Dng gia cc thy vc mt v ngm, gia cc thy vc ngm vi nhau thng rt phc tp v c th c hng dng thay i theo ma hoc pha khc nhau ca chu k nc. Khi hai thy vc thng nhau, nhng thy vc c ngun nui di do, c mc nc hoc mc p lc thy tnh cao hn s to ra dng chy n thy vc cn li. Tun hon nc c vai tr to ln trong vic phn phi v ti to ti nguyn nc, iu tit nhit nng theo thi gian v khng gian, to kh hu thi tit v lm sch mi trng. Tun hon nc l mt chu trnh nhy cm vi bin ng, ch cn lng bc hi i dng tng 2% c th khin lng ma lc a tng 10%. Cc hin tng kh hu thi tit b chi phi bi hon lu kh quyn rt nhy cm vi nhng bin ng thnh phn v tnh cht ca mi trng khng kh.

1.5

Cn bng nc

Phng trnh cn bng nc, ca mt khu vc trong mt thi on nht nh, l biu thc ton hc biu din tng quan gia cc phn nc i vo, i ra v s bin i lng nc c sn trong khu vc trong khong thi gian , c cn bng trn c s nh lut bo ton vt cht. Biu thc tng qut ca phng trnh nh sau: P + N + Mv + v E Mr r + Vm1 + Vn1 Vm2 Vn2 = 0 (1.1) (phn n) ( phn i) ( phn thay i ) (1.1) Hay: P = ( E N ) + ( Mv + v ) ( Mr + Dr ) Vm Vn

trong : P- lng ma; E- lng bc hi; N- lng ngng t; M- dng chy mt; dng di mt; V- lng tr trong khu vc; V- bin ng lng tr trong thi on tnh; 1u thi on; 2- cui thi on; m- mt; n- ngm; v- vo; r- ra. Khi lng ngng t khng ln v trong lu vc c cc cng trnh nhn to quy m ln chuyn nc vo (Cv ) ra (Cr ) khi khu vc, phng trnh cn bng nc (1.1) c bin i nh sau: P = E +(Mv + Dv + Cv) (Mr + Dr + Cr) Vm Vn (1.2) ln ca dng nhn to so vi cc thnh phn cn li trong cn cn nc khu vc, tu thuc tr lng nc t nhin, nhu cu v kh nng ca con ngi. T gc mi trng, y l thnh phn cn quan tm, v n lin quan trc tip vi cc hot ng nhn sinh, tim n nhiu yu t gy nhim mi trng v n l yu t ngoi lai ca h t nhin, nn tim n nhng nguy c gy bin i bt thng trong h. Phng trnh cn bng nc nm, trung bnh nhiu nm, ca mt lu vc sng kn, c dng tng qut nh sau: P = E + Y (1.3)

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trong Y l dng chy o c ti ca sng Phn tch phng trnh (1.3) cho thy ln ca bc hi v dng chy b gii hn bi lng ma. Khi lng ma rt ln th ln ca bc hi khng ph thuc vo trng m, m b gii hn bi trng nhit. Ti mi vng a l u xc nh c bc x n trung bnh, t tnh c lng bc hi ln nht c th (bc hi kh nng). Phn lng ma vt kh nng bc hi s sinh dng chy, nn ma cng ln, dng chy cng ln. Khi lng ma nh, ln ca bc hi ph thuc vo ma, cn ln ca dng chy ph thuc vo ma v nhit. Trong vng t ma, hu ht lng ma tn tht vo bc hi, nn dng chy thng hn ch, thm ch khng c. Vng c tm dng chy ln lun trng vi vng c tm ma ln v ngc li. Bc hi thc t t b mt lu vc ph thuc: Kh nng cp nhit cho qu trnh bc hi, m khng kh, ngha l ph thuc ch yu vo c im ca dng bc x, gi, nhit , m khng kh. Kh nng hp th nhit bc x Mt Tri, m v kh nng nh nc ca b mt bc hi. Trong vng kh hn, nu lng nhit cung cp cho qu trnh bc hi lun sn, th vic cp thm nc lm tng m t, tng din tch mt nc s lm tng bc hi thc t, gim hiu sut s dng nc, dn n tng gi thnh cp nc.
Bng 1.1. Cn bng nc lc a (mm/nm) Stt Chu lc Bc hi Ma 1 Chu u 390 640 2 Chu 310 600 3 Chu Phi 430 690 4 Bc M 320 660 5 Nam M 700 1.630 6 Chu c 420 470 Dng chy 250 290 260 340 930 50 H s dng chy 0,39 0,48 0,38 0,52 0,57 0,11

Lvovich din ton dng chy sng ngi Y thnh hai phn, c nguyn nhn hnh thnh, c tnh v kh nng s dng khc nhau, l dng l (dng mt S) v dng ngm (U). Dng l thuc loi khng n nh, sinh ra khi c ma ln, to thnh lp nc trn mt, chy trn theo sn dc, tp trung rt nhanh v li sng trong thi on ngn, lm nc sng dng cao, vn tc, lu lng dng chy ln, tim n nhiu yu t tai bin ri ro, kh khai thc s dng. Dng ngm thuc loi n nh, mc nc tng i thp nhng u u quanh nm, c khi khng c ma. N c gi l dng ngm do ngun gc pht sinh, bi trn cc con sng ln, t trong t lun c dng chy t nc di t ra nui sng. Trung bnh ton lc a dng chy ngm chim 31% tng lng dng chy, theo chu lc dng chy ngm chim 22 - 36% tng lng dng chy (bng 1.3). Dng chy n nh c th c xem l ti nguyn nc sng thc ti, l phn m con ngi d dng khai thc s dng c. T y phng trnh (1.3) c vit li nh sau: P S = U + E = W. (1.4) Lvovich gi W l lng m ton phn lu vc. Lng m ton phn lu vc l phn lng ma cung cp cho t, c t tiu hao vo hai qu trnh l cp nc nui dng chy sng n nh v bc hi. y l thnh phn cn cn nc c vai tr quan trng nht trong cc h sinh thi t nhin. Phng trnh cn bng nc c ngha to ln trong nghin cu ti nguyn nc, l: nh gi vai tr, ngha ca tng thnh phn trong cn cn nc.

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Tnh mt thnh phn khi bit cc thnh phn cn li trong cn bng. Kim tra chnh xc ca thit b v phng php o c cc yu t trong cn cn nc, c bit l khi nghin cu mt thit b o hay mt phng php mi. Tnh ton cn cn nc gii bi ton quy hoch pht trin, phn phi v s dng hiu qu ti nguyn nc Phn tch cn bng nc khu vc cho bit c im v iu kin kh hu, th nhng, cy trng, a hnh, a cht nhng thun li v kh khn trong vic khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc. So snh cn bng nc trong nhng giai on khc nhau cho php pht hin nhng du hiu bin ng, t nh hng nghin cu ngun gc bin ng ti nguyn nc. Trn c s kt qu tnh ton cn bng nc, c th xc nh chnh xc lng nc cn b sung m bo cn cn nc thun li nht cho cc mc tiu s dng. Tuy nhin, cn lu n mi quan h tng h gia cc thnh phn cn bng nc trong mt khu vc. Khi lm thay i mt trong cc thnh phn ca cn bng th cc thnh phn khc c th bin i tng ng. V d nh khi tng dng nhn to vo khu vc kh hn s c kh nng lm tng bc hi. T phi nghin cu, tm ra phng thc tc ng ti h t nhin sao cho t hiu qu kinh t ti u.

1.6

Quy lut phn b nc theo khng gian

Nc phn b khng ng u theo khng gian (hnh 1.1). Vic tnh chnh xc t phn nc trong cc thu vc khc nhau cn gp mt s kh khn. Theo J.A. Jonnes, 97,41% th tch nc Tri t nm trong bin v i dng, 1,98% trong bng tuyt hai cc, ni cao, cn li 0,61% nm ri rc trong khng kh v cc thu vc mt, ngm lc a (bng 1.2).
Bng 1. 2. Phn b nc theo thu vc v chu k i mi ca n Thu vc Dung tch 103 % tng Km3 dung tch i dng 1.350.000 97,41 Bng tuyt 27.500 1,98 Lc a 8.477,8 0,61 Di t 8.200 0,59 H 100 0,007 m t 70 0,005 Kh quyn 13 0,001 Sng 1,7 0,0001 Sinh quyn 1,1 0,0001 Kho nc 5 0,0004 t ti 2 0,0002 Nc ngt 32,014 2,31 % tng lng nc ngt 0 85,9 13,5 0,313 0,219 0,04 0,005 0,003 0,016 0,006 Chu k i mi 3.000 nm 8000-15000nm <330->5000 nm 10 nm 2 tun - 1 nm 2 tun

Cc thu vc ln cha nc rn, nc tnh, hoc cch tr vi ngun m chnh, c chu k i mi rt ln, khng thun li cho ti to v lng v cht, kh p ng cc nhu cu khai thc s dng quy m ln. Chm i mi nht l nc trong bng tuyt hai cc, c th cn ti 15.000 nm, i mi nhanh nht l nc sng ngi, ch mt hai tun l nc t u ngun hon thnh hnh trnh ra n ca sng (bng 1.2).

15

HNH 1.1 : S PHN VNG TI NGUYN NC TH GII

Rt nhiu ngi nhm tng nhng loi nc khng nm trong bin v i dng ng nhin l nc ngt. Thc t khng phi nh vy. Mt phn nc ngm v nc h c khong ho kh cao. Trn th gii nc t nhin c mn cao nht khng nm trong bin v i dng, m h Cht, ni ngi v ng vt khng th chm hon ton trong nc c. Ch c 2,31% tng th tch nc Tri t l nc ngt, trong 85,9% nm trong bng tuyt hai cc v ni cao, 13,5% nm trong nc ngm. Sng ngi cha c 1.700km3 nc, chim 0,0001% tng lng v 0,005% lng nc ngt ca Tri t (bng 1.2, 1.3).
Bng 1.3. Ti nguyn nc sng ngi cc chu lc W t nhin (km3/nm) Lc a Tng Chu u Chu Chu Phi Bc M Nam M Chu c Tng 3.100 13.190 4.225 5.950 10.380 1.965 38.830 n nh Tng % 1.125 36 3.440 26 1.500 36 1.900 32 3.740 36 465 24 12.170 31 W iu tit (km3/nm ) 312 1.198 564 1.115 4.135 273 7.597 W n nh v iu tit (m3/ngi/n m) 2.009 1.481 3.193 7.236 27.154 27.895 7.597

Ngoi ra, phn ln lng nc ngt ca Tri t phn b nhng ni khng thun li cho khai thc, nh trong bng tuyt vnh cu hai cc, trn nh ni cao hoc nm rt su di lng t. Theo thng tin t v tinh, di y hoang mc Sahara c du tch lng sng r rt, chng t vng ny tng mt thi rt m t v hin vn cn mt b nc ngm khng l, tr lng khong 600.000km3 m con ngi cha khai thc c. Trong cn bng nc cc chu lc (bng 1.1), xt theo lp dng chy, Nam M c ti nguyn nc di do nht, gp 3 ln trung bnh th gii, cn chu c c ti nguyn nc ht

16

sc hn ch, ch bng khong 1/6 trung bnh th gii. Do , chu c chc chn s c nhng phn h sinh thi kh hn, cn Nam M s c nhiu h sinh thi m. Tuy nhin, tim nng cp nc thc t c nh gi cn c theo bnh qun theo u ngi hoc din tch. Khi , bnh qun nc sng theo u ngi ca chu c li l ln nht, gp 7 ln trung bnh th gii (do dn c tha tht), chu c bnh qun nc sng theo u ngi thp nht, bng khong 0,4 ln trung bnh th gii. Vit Nam c bnh qun nc theo din tch gp >3 ln th gii, nhng bnh qun theo u ngi ch bng 2/3 th gii (bng 1.4).
Bng 1.4. Ti nguyn nc mt s quc gia trn th gii Quc gia Brazin CHLBNga TrungQuc Canaa M n Nauy Php Vit Nam Ton cu Tng lng 3 km 9.230 4.003 2.550 2.472 1.938 1.680 405 183 88 41.500 T l so vi ton cu 22,2 9,6 6,1 5,9 4,7 4,1 0,98 0,4 0,7 100 Bnh qun din tch 3 3 2 10 m /km 1.084 234 268 248 207 514 1.248 332 917 279 Bnh qun u 3 ngi 10 3 m /ngi 135 23,5 2,6 102 9,1 2,4 102 3,7 5,6 9,0

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1.7

Quy lut bin ng nc theo thi gian

1.7.1 Tnh chu k

Theo thi gian ti nguyn nc phn phi khng ng u. Hai chu k bin ng r nt nht ca ti nguyn nc theo thi gian l chu k ma v chu k nhiu nm. Chu k ma: Ch nc trong cc thu vc tng cao trong mt s thng lin tc (ma l) v h thp trong mt s thng lin tc cn li (ma kit) mt cch c quy lut r rng. Cch phn ma dng chy sng ngi n gin nht l theo ch tiu vt trung bnh: Ma l l thi k khng di hai thng lin tip c lu lng trung bnh thng bng hoc vt lu lng trung bnh nm, vi xc sut vt trung bnh khng di 50%. Theo ch tiu ny c th xc nh c ma l v kit cho bt k nm no, khng quan tm ti mc c lit ca dng chy cc ma. Chu k ma ca dng chy sng dao ng tng i ng pha vi chu k ma. Chu k ma ca nc di t gim dn v phng din phn ho v chm dn v thi gian bt u, kt thc tu theo s tng su phn b v mc c cp do ngm t ma. Chu k nhiu nm: L s dao ng ch dng chy theo chu k di, mi chu k c mt s nm t nc lin tip (pha t nc) v mt s nm nhiu nc lin tip (pha nhiu nc), gia chng c th c mt s nm chuyn tip vi nhng gi tr nc trung bnh. Nghin cu ch dng chy sng ngi th gii pht hin thy chu k nhiu nm dng chy thng c gi tr gn vi 11 hoc bi ca 11 nm. V d: Trn sng Hng, ti H Ni, quan st c ba nm nc c bit ln l 1945, 1971, 1996, l mc gii r rt gia cc chu k nc 25 - 26 nm. Do c chu k nhiu nm, nn trung bnh nhiu nm bin ng lng nc khu vc (c nc mt v nc ngm) u bng khng. Tnh chu k ca ti nguyn nc l h qu ca vic mt s yu t hnh thnh chng bin ng c tnh chu k. Chu k ma c nguyn nhn t nhng qu trnh ca t thn Tri t, cn chu k nhiu nm hin c coi nh c nguyn nhn t cc qu trnh din ra trong v tr, trong ngi ta c bit nhn mnh ti chu k 11 nm hot ng ca Mt Tri. Tnh chu k nhiu nm ca ti nguyn nc cha c cc i tng s dng nc hiu bit y nh tnh chu k nm, nht l trong giai on hin nay. i khi nhng biu hin cc bin ca ch kh hu, thu vn mang tnh chu k cng gy nn nhng hin tng, thi tit, thu vn cc oan, nhng chng u c th d bo v ng ph c. S l sai lm nghim trng nu chng ta nh ng cc hin tng ny vi nhng bin i kh hu ton cu, l hin tng c lin quan vi cc tc ng ti mi trng khng kh tm v m. Tnh chu k ca ti nguyn nc l c s cho vic lp bi ton quy hoch, ra quyt nh pht trin, cng nh thit k, vn hnh cc cng trnh iu tit dng chy. thch ng c vi nhp iu thi gian ca ch dng chy, con ngi s phi hoc l iu tit nhp iu sn xut v dng nc, hoc l xy dng h cha iu tit dng chy. Nhng c gng m rng sn xut khng tnh ti tnh chu k ca ti nguyn nc c th s lm ny sinh mu thun gia nhu cu dng nc, vi kh nng cp hn ch trong cc ma v pha nc t, gy khng hong ti nguyn, sinh thi, mi trng v pht trin. Tnh bin ng c chu k ca ti nguyn nc l c s cho vic hnh thnh nhng tp qun truyn thng trong khai thc nc ni ring v pht trin sn xut, kinh t, x hi ni chung trong nhng vng a l khc nhau.

1.7.2 Tnh ngu nhin

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Dng chy l sn phm tc ng ca nhiu yu t ngu nhin. Khi cc yu t ngu nhin u c tc ng ng k ti dng chy th n s mang tnh ngu nhin r rt. Nhng hin tng thu vn, nh l lt, hn hn, xy ra theo chu k, nhng cc c trng nh lng ca chng, nh ln, thi im xut hin..., li c tnh ngu nhin v tun theo mt s quy lut ngu nhin nht nh. Phn phi dng chy sng thin nhin trung bnh nm v cc i rt gn vi phn phi loga chun, Kriski - Men Ken, Pirson III. Cc tham s ngu nhin c dng nhiu nht l m men bc I, II, III, chng cho bit gi tr trung bnh, mc bin i v i xng ca chui. l c s cho php ng dng cc l thuyt xc sut thng k vo nghin cu dng chy, xc nh xc sut xut hin mt gi tr no trong khong bin ng c th ca chui, cho d hin tng tng xy ra hay cha, hoc tnh c gn ng gi tr ca i lng cn nghin cu ng vi xc sut nh trc, bao gm c cc gi tr c xc sut hin nh v rt nh. Cc cng trnh xy dng bn vng trn, trong, hoc lin k cc dng sng u phi thit k ng vi mt tn xut dng chy rt him no , v d 1%, 0,1%..., m bo bn vng v an ton. Cc cng trnh khai thc nc, phc v giao thng thu thng phi thit k ng vi nhng tn sut thng gp no , v d 75%, 90%, 99%... Tuy nhin gia tn sut xut hin v chu k lp ca hin tng khng ng pha nhau, mt gi tr ng vi tn sut 1% khng c ngha l phi sau ng 100 nm mi xy ra, nht l khi hin tng thu vn cn c tnh chu k. Hn na, tnh ton thng k khng tr li c cu hi khi no th hin tng xut hin, ng thi chui s liu cng ngn th sai s tnh ton cng cao. V th vic s dng l thuyt xc sut thng k tnh ton dng chy ch c th c s dng trong nhng iu kin nht nh.
Bng 1.4. iu kin p dng l thuyt xc sut thng k tnh ti nguyn nc L thuyt xc sut thng k c dng nghin cu chui dng chy ngu nhin c lp nhau v gi tr, tng i ng nht v nguyn nhn hnh thnh, nh dng chy trung bnh nm, ma, cc tr... Tnh i biu ca chui thu vn ch th hin khi n c di ln >50 100 gi tr v tm c chp nhn khi chui c >10 30 gi tr ca nhng chu k nc tng i trn vn. Tnh ngu nhin ca hin tng thu vn ch c tnh tri trong nhng iu kin nht nh, do vy l thuyt xc sut thng k ch c php s dng khi c nhng kt lun r rng v tnh ngu nhin, i biu ca mu v tnh ph hp ca lut phn phi l thuyt vi phn phi thc ca mu trong thi k tnh ton. Ch tiu kim nh thng dng l: 1- Ch tiu du, Uyn-Cc-Sn, Van-Var, Stu-en kim nh tnh ng nht ca tr trung bnh; 2- Ch tiu Fi-s, Cc-ren, 2 kim nh tnh ng nht ca phng sai; 3- Ch tiu hiu 2 lin tip, di b v s b kim nh tnh ngu nhin ca chui; 4-Ch tiu , Cn-ma-g-rp kim nh mc ph hp ca hai phn phi. Vic kim nh l bt buc khi: 1- Chui s liu b nghi l khng ng nht v iu kin hnh thnh; 2- Nghin cu cc c trng khng truyn thng, cha c kim nghim, xc nhn l c tnh ngu nhin; 3- S dng phn phi l thuyt mi. Ngoi vic s dng cc quy lut ngu nhin l thuyt, khi s liu nghin cu tin cy, c th s dng chnh cc gi tr ca chui xy dng ng phn phi thc nghim, t xc nh cc tham s ngu nhin v cc gi tr dng chy ng vi mi tn sut.

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1.8

Kh nng t ti to ca ti nguyn nc

Nc c th t ti to v lng, cht v nng lng. Kh nng ti to ca nc ph thuc vo cc yu t chnh sau: Cht v lng ngun cp nc. Kh nng t lm sch ca thu vc, ph thuc c im hnh thi lng cha, cc qu trnh ng lc v l ho sinh hc din ra trong thu vc. c im qu trnh tiu hao lng v cht nc. Kh nng t ti to ca nc hn ch v cn nhng iu kin nht nh. Mt thu vc khi b khai thc qu kh nng t phc hi s suy thoi, cn kit, khng cn kh nng cho khai thc.

1.8.1 Kh nng ti to lng v nng lng nc

Kh nng t ti to v lng v nng lng ca nc l kh nng t bo ton gi tr v phc hi phn b tiu hao, c thc hin nh tun hon nc. Min cp nc cng rng v qu trnh cp nc cng mnh m, kh nng ti to ny cng ln. Nc sng c kh nng t phc hi v lng v nng lng cao nht; Nc ngm nm su, nc trong cc vng kh hu kh hn nng c kh nng ti to v lng km nht.

1.8.2 Kh nng t ti to cht nc

Kh nng t ti to v cht ca nc l kh nng t lm sch thng qua cc qu trnh c l, ho, sinh khc nhau sau: 1.8.2.1 Chuyn dch Nc chy xui dng, mang vt cht nhim i xa khi vng tip nhn, hoc ra khi thu vc nhn cht nhim, n nhng mi trng mi. Chuyn dch xui dng gip lm sch nc ti im i, nhng l nguyn nhn cho nhng qu trnh kh on trc ti ni n theo hai xu th sau: Gy nhim ti ni n nu mi trng nhn khng c iu kin thun li cho lm sch. Phn hu, loi tr hon ton cht gy nhim, nu mi trng nhn c iu kin thun li. 1.8.2.2 Pha long c thc hin khi nng cht nhim ca nc trong thu vc thp hn nhiu so vi ngun nhim, hoc khi thu vc nhim nhn c lng nc mi cht lng sch hn. T l gia tng lng cht nhim vi lng nc sch dng pha long cng nh, kh nng pha long cng cao. Xo trn cng mnh, pha long cng d thc hin v xy ra trn din rng. Pha long khng trc tip lm gim lng cht nhim c trong khi nc, nhng n lm gim nng cht nhim, to iu kin thun li cho cc qu trnh t lm sch khc, ng thi to cm quan mi trng tt hn, ci thin cc c trng l hc ca nc. 1.8.2.3 Lng ng

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L qu trnh vt cht khng tan chuyn trng thi t l lng trong khi nc sang tch lu trong vng y, gp phn loi vt cht ra khi khi nc, lm gim nng cht nhim trong nc, to iu kin thun li cho cc qu trnh ha sinh t lm sch nc. Tuy nhin n khng loi c cht nhim ra khi thu vc, m li a chng vo mt mi trng mi t xy, km thun li hn cho phn hu ho sinh t lm sch, to ra tch lu nhim trong trm tch y, sinh ra trm tch bn en, c mi thi v cha rt nhiu cht c hi. y cng l mi trng sinh sng ca h sinh vt y, nn nguy c tch lu cht nhim theo dy chuyn sinh hc s rt cao. Ngoi ra, trng thi lng ng ca mt loi vt cht no ch l tng i, khi iu kin thu lc trong khi nc thay i, n li c th b cun tr li trng thi l lng. Trong t nhin, qu trnh pha long, chuyn dch din ra thun li nht trong sng chy xit, cn lng ng din ra thun li hn trong cc h. 1.8.2.4 Kh nng t lm sch ho hc ca nc Lm sch ho hc c thc hin nh phn ng ho hc bin i mt s cht thnh nhng cht mi t gy hi hn, nh t c hn, c th kt ta, bay hi... Tc phn ng ph thuc phc tp vo iu kin mi trng, nng cht tham gia phn ng, s c mt ca cc cht khc c chc nng xc tc... m trong nhiu trng hp chng ta khng bit r rng. 1.8.2.5 Kh nng t lm sch ho sinh ca nc Lm sch ho sinh c thc hin nh cc phn ng phn hu cht hu c bng vi sinh vt hiu kh. Qu trnh din ra thun li khi: iu kin sng ca vi sinh vt phn hu hiu kh c m bo, khng c cht c hi; Nng cht nhim khng qu cao; xy ho tan c cung cp lin tc, y . Ngun cp xy ch yu cho nc l t kh quyn qua mt nc v quang hp ca thu thc vt trong tng nc mt vo ban ngy. xy ho tan ch xung su c nu khi nc xo trn tt. Trong nc chy mnh, xy t kh quyn c b sung nhanh vo nc v xo trn ng u hn trong ton khi. Tuy nhin nc chy mnh khng thun li cho duy tr cc tp on thc vt quang hp cng nh vi sinh vt lm sch nc, nn qu trnh t lm sch y ch yu l bng pha long, chuyn dch v phn hu ho hc. Thu vc nc tnh t lm sch ch yu bng phn hu ho sinh tng trn v lng ng. 1.8.2.6 Lc sinh hc: thc hin c theo cc c ch sau: Lc trc tip bi ng vt thn mm: Mytilus c 5 - 6 cm lc c 3,5l/ngy, trai di 5 6 cm lc 12l/ngy, u trng Chironomus Plumosus vi mt 90.000 con/m2 s dng 250g cht hu c ngy, trong ng ho 100g, cn li b v c ho. Tch t cht bn v cht c (Coban, Cadimi). bng cch hp th v tch lu chng trong sinh khi ng thc vt. Ph hu hoc v hiu ho cht c. Trong mt s trng hp cht c tr thnh thc n, ngun cp O2 cho mt s loi Ngi ta tm ra hng trm loi vi khun, nm c kh nng phn hu du m, gip loi tr 10 - 90% tng lng du v cc sn phm ca du c trong nc. Thc t ti nhiu vng nc bin b nhim du khng c x l bng cc phng php ho hc, h sinh thi t lm sch kh tt nh c ch ny. Lc sinh hc l mt qu trnh lm sch t nhin c vai tr to ln. Tuy nhin, sinh khi ca cc vt liu lc ny cha c cht, nn cn phi c kim sot c bit, nh thu gom chuyn ra khi lu vc hoc x l lm sch..., ng thi nghim cm a vo dy chuyn thc n di mi hnh thc.

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1.9

Tnh a i ca ti nguyn nc

Tnh a i ca ti nguyn nc c ngun gc t tnh a i ca cc yu t hnh thnh. Di tc ng ca cc tc nhn v tr v Tri t, hnh thnh s phn ho cc iu kin kh hu, cnh quan nh ch bc x, ma, nhit, bc hi, thm thc vt theo v . Din tch lu vc cng ln, tnh bnh qun cng cao, nh hng ca cc yu t vi m (phi a i) b lu m, th cc yu t a i cng th hin tc ng tri, dn ti tnh a i ca cc hin tng thu vn cng r nt. Dng chy c tnh tng t a l. Hai lu vc c kch thc gn nh nhau, phn b trong cng mt vng kh hu, c c im b mt lu vc tng t nhau, tc c cng iu kin hnh thnh dng chy, gi l lu vc tng t, th s c dng chy sng ngi gn nh nhau. iu ny c bit quan trng i vi nghin cu v khai thc ti nguyn nc, v: 1- y l c s cho vic phn vng, lp bn ti nguyn nc theo cc c trng thu vn hoc theo iu kin hnh thnh dng chy. 2- H thng thu vn phn b khp ni, nhiu vng su, vng xa, vng kh khn cha pht trin s khng c h thng trm quan trc, do khng c thng tin h thng phc v cho quy hoch pht trin. Phng php lu vc tng t cho php b sung thng tin thiu mt cch nhanh chng v hp l. Bn ti nguyn nc gm cc loi: 1- Bn phn vng, th hin cc thng s khng lin tc theo cch thc phn chia lnh a ra thnh nhng vng m thng s c cng gi tr, v d nh bn ch s bo m nc ngt, bn ch ma, dng chy... 2- Bn ng ng mc (hay ng ng tr), th hin cc thng s bin i lin tc theo khng gian, trong cc im c cng gi tr ca thng s c ni lin vi nhau thnh ng ng mc ng tr, v d nh bn lng ma, bc hi, lp dng chy, m un dng chy Bn ng tr lng dng chy ch xy dng c khi c s liu o c di, ng b theo thi gian, dy v ph kn theo khng gian, iu kin hnh thnh dng chy trn tng lu vc khng thay i. T l bn ph thuc mc p ng s liu theo khng gian. Bn c xy dng bng cch t cc gi tr dng chy trung bnh lu vc ln im trng tm ca lu vc, sau v ng ng mc dng chy cn c vo s bin i ca trng s liu, c tnh n dng ng ng mc cao v lng ma. Trn bn , lng dng chy trung bnh lu vc c xc nh bng gi tr ng ng tr i qua trng tm lu vc, hoc ngoi suy theo gi tr ca hai ng gn nht, hoc tnh theo phng php trung bnh c trng s cc gi tr dng chy ca cc mnh din tch thnh phn nm gia cc ng ng mc k tip nhau ct qua lu vc.

1.10 Tnh lu vc ca ti nguyn nc

Mt s yu t kh hu c tnh phn ho theo lu vc (v d nh ma...); Kt hp vi cc yu t b mt lu vc, chng to ra tc ng tng hp lm cho lng v phn phi dng chy mang tnh c th ca lu vc r nt v c tnh quy lut. Hm quan h tng qut gia ti nguyn nc vi cc yu t hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc ca n kh cht ch v c dng: Dng chy = f ( kh hu, b mt lu vc, nhn to). (1.5)

22

Cht lng nc trong thu vc ph thuc vo ngun cp nc, b mt lu vc sinh thu, c im bn cha v cc qu trnh din ra trong khi nc, cng nh tng tc dng nc - b y. T y c th thy bt k s bin i no trn mt phn no ca lu vc cng c th tc ng ti dng chy trong sng h lu c v lng v cht. Trong nhng thi k a cht n nh, khi cc nhn t a hnh, a mo, thc vt v nhn sinh tng i n nh, th tc ng tng hp ca chng ti dng chy c th c c trng bng mt hng s khng i, do hm quan h trn c dng nh sau (gi l quan h ma dng chy): Y = f (ma, ch s tn tht tng hp ca lu vc). (1.6) Hm tng quan trn c tnh nhn qu r nt, vi h s tng quan cao n mc c cho php dng lm cng c tnh ton, d bo dng chy khi bit lng ma v thng tin v iu kin hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc. Tnh lu vc ca hin tng thu vn l mt quy lut t nhin quan trng c nh hng n cc hot ng qun l v pht trin. Bt k mt tc ng nhn to no lm bin i ng k iu kin hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc, s gy ra nhng h qu tng hp cho dng chy. Tnh nghim trng ca vn l ch n gy nn nhng hin tng thu vn bt thng kh d on, hoc c th d on c nhng kh ng ph, x l. ng thi n lm tng sai s ca vic tnh ton nc theo cc quy lut c. tm ra c quy lut mi cn phi c thi gian nghin cu v kim chng, trong khi nhu cu i sng khng cho php. Tnh lu vc ca cc hin tng v qu trnh thu vn lm cho n c tnh a quc gia, phi bin gii hnh chnh. Khng mt quyn lc nhn to no c th ng ca bin gii ngn cn nhng h qu xu do cc quc gia, dn tc khc gy ra thng lu i sang a gii hnh chnh ca mnh. Do qun l pht trin theo lu vc ang tr thnh mt hng i cn thit v ng n khai thc s dng hp l ti nguyn nc v pht trin bn vng ton khu vc, ton cu.

1.11 Cc yu t t nhin hnh thnh ti nguyn nc

T nhin l mt h thng m mi thnh t ca n l mt b phn khng th thiu ca ton th, c nhng mi quan h phc tp vi phn cn li ca h thng, tng tc a chiu vi chng. Mi thnh t c th va l tc nhn, va l h qu tc ng ca ca mt hoc mt s yu t khc trong h thng. Vic tch ra cc mi quan h n nht, mt chiu xem xt l rt kh khn v vic nghin cu cc mi quan h n nht thng ch c tnh l thuyt. Tuy nhin n cho php nh gi c v mt l thuyt v tr ca mi yu t trong h thng v cung cp c s cho mt s nghin cu gin lc no . Di y ch trnh by tc ng n ca tng yu t hnh thnh dng chy.

1.11.1 Kh hu
Sng ngi l sn phm ca kh hu. Yu t kh hu c nh hng quyt nh ti ti nguyn nc l bc x Mt Tri, nhit , ma v gi. Cc yu t ny mt mt trc tip tham gia vo qu trnh hnh thnh cn cn nc khu vc, mt khc tc ng gin tip ti lng v cht nc thng qua cc qu trnh phong ho, thnh to a hnh, a mo, th nhng, pht trin thm thc vt, h sinh thi... Bc x Mt Tri l yu t cp nng lng chnh cho qu trnh hnh thnh ch nhit v iu kin t nhin thch hp i vi s sng trn Tri t. Venus gn Mt Tri hn, li c

23

bu kh quyn nhiu CO2, c hiu ng nh knh ln hn, nn rt kh nng, nhit 475oC; Sao Ho, xa Mt Tri hn Tri t 78triu km, hon ton lnh gi, nc hu nh ng bng. Bc x Mt Tri thc t n Tri t ph thuc vo cao Mt Tri, cc i ti vng xch o, cc tiu ti hai cc, trung bnh l 250kcal/cm2/nm, trong tiu hao vo bc hi 46kcal/cm2/nm. Bc x n ca Mt Tri gii hn kh nng cp nhit cho a phn cc qu trnh din ra trn Tri t, l mt trong nhng yu t gii hn mc bc hi. Lng bc hi thc t t mt t ph thuc c im b mt bc hi v kh nng cp nhit, cp m cho qu trnh bc hi. Kh nng hp th nhit bc x ca mt t ph thuc mu sc v c im ca n: bng phn x 80 - 90% bc x Mt Tri, trong khi nc ch phn x 10%. H qu l qu trnh t nng mt t, kh quyn khng ng nht theo thi gian v khng gian, gy bin ng nhit , mt khng kh, p sut kh quyn, to ra cc dng kh chuyn dch ngang hoc thng ng, mang theo hi nc v nhit n ho hi, to ra cc hin tng thi tit, phn phi li nng lng. Cng ln cao khng kh cng long, nhit cng gim. Dng kh nng m gp a hnh nng s bc ln cao, gim nhit trung bnh 0,5 - 0,6oC/100m, khi t ti nhit lnh tng ng im bo ho hi nc th s ngng t to ma. Cng xm nhp nh sng vo nc gim nhanh theo su, th hin trong cng thc sau: Iz = Ioe-Z (1.7) trong : I - cng nh sng, Iz - cng nh sng ti su z, Io - cng nh sng ti z = 0 Z- su, - h s suy gim cng nh sng. Gii hn di m phytoplanton c th sinh trng c bng 1% cng chiu sng b mt y , tc 8jun/cm2/ngy. Gi tr ny c th t c trong nc sch ca cc bin pha nam ti su <100m, hoc cc ao thi ti su 0,1m. Trong cc h t nhin v h cha c trong 1 2m, ti su 1m c 5 10% nng lng tng bc x chiu xung xm nhp vo, su >3m ch cn vi phn nghn. Nhit v ch nhit ca nc trong cc thu vc c nh hng ti s sng ca h ng thc vt v cc qu trnh l ho, nh hng n cht lng nc v kh nng t lm sch ca thu vc. Ch nhit m c nh hng mnh ti phong ho (cung cp sn phm b ri cho qu trnh ra tri, xi mn) v tc ng ti pht trin thm thc vt (l yu t bo v b mt khi tc ng trc tip ca ma nng, chng xi mn, to cht t), do c nh hng ng k ti cht lng nc trong cc thu vc. Cng phong ha vt l tng theo s tng bin nhit v mc t ngt ca s bin ng nhit. Trong vng nn nhit ln, tn tht do bc hi mnh c th dn ti mn ho cc thu vc lu thng nc km. Lng ma l yu t quyt nh kh nng cp nc cho khu vc. Hng nm lc a nhn c khong 111.000km3 nc ma, trong gn 2/3 bc hi, cn khong 41.000km3 hnh thnh dng chy ra bin v i dng. Ma phn b theo quy lut sau: Gim dn t xch o n cc (nh ma ln nht nm ti vng hi t xch o, nh ma nh hn nm trong vng hi t v 60o). Gim dn theo s tng tnh lc a. Tng theo cao pha sn n gi m.

24

Phn ho theo ma v chu k nhiu nm. Gia tng lng ma theo cao ch th hin n cao 2.000 - 3.000m bn sn n gi m, cn sn khut gi i din s thiu m, ma t, kh nng mnh do hiu ng phn. Phn b ma hai bn sn dy Trng Sn v hin tng gi Lo l sn phm ca quy lut ny. Cc hnh th thi tit gy ma ln trn din rng l bo, xoy thun, p thp nhit i, hi t nhit i, frn lnh... H qu l hnh thnh nhng tm ma ln nh phn b phc tp theo khng gian, b chi phi bi mt hoc mt s quy lut ch o. Nhn chung, tm ma ln thng trng vi tm dng chy ln v ngc li. Cc nhiu ng thi tit, c bit l cc nhiu ng ng lc c vai tr c bit trong hnh thnh l ln gy h qu nghim trng ti mi trng v dn sinh. Phn b ma theo thi gian v khng gian quyt nh phn b ca lng nc khu vc theo thi gian v khng gian. Dng phn phi ma quyt nh dng phn phi ca dng chy. Cng v din bin ma c nh hng ti lng thm thc t, t quyt nh ln ca dng chy mt, c im v quy m cc trn l. Theo mt s tc gi, mc bin ng gradien lng ma theo cao 20 - 300mm/100 m gy ra bin ng gradien dng chy mc 5 40mm/100m theo cao. Trong cc vng ging thu lng, ma l trn sng thng bt u chm hn bt u ma ma 1 - 2 thng. Ma l yu t nh hng ln ti cht lng nc cc thu vc. Ma ra sch bu kh quyn, ho tan nhiu kh lm pH ca nc gim, thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc phn ho. Ht ma c ng nng nn trc tip cng ph b mt t. Ma sinh dng mt ho tan, xi mn mt t v chuyn ti sn phm phong ho, xi mn i xa. Ma cng ln, nguy c hnh thnh dng chy sn dc cng ln, ng nng cng cao, xi mn cng mnh. Trong thc t, xi mn ch xut hin khi ma vt qu ngng xi mn theo cng (25 mm/gi). Vit Nam c khong 40% lng ma ri vi cng trn ngng xi mn. Quan h gia tng ma v lng t b xi c th tnh theo cng thc: R = 0,082P - 21 trong ; R- ch s xi mn do ma, P- ma trung bnh nm. Tuy nhin quan h gia ma v xi mn khng hon ton tuyn tnh v bn xi mn t khng hon ton trng khp vi bn ma th gii. Vng ma nhiu c iu kin tt cho thm thc vt pht trin, thng c kh nng bn vng hn trc tc ng xi mn ca ma v dng chy. Ngc li, nhng vng ma t, kh hn ko di thng khng thun li cho s pht trin ca thc vt, t b phong ha mnh v khng c bo v, rt d b xi mn mnh. Gi c nh hng ln ti thnh to a hnh (thi mn, mi mn) trn ton b b mt sn, k c sn lm v chuyn vn vt cht b ri i xa, do n c tc ng gin tip ti qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc v cht lng nc thu vc.

1.11.2 a hnh, a cht, th nhng

Yu t a hnh nh hng ng k ti ti nguyn nc l cao, hnh dng, mc ct x b mt, dc v di sn dc. a hnh lm cho cc yu t kh hu phn ha mnh theo chiu ngang v chiu thng ng. Theo chiu ngang, cc dy ni to ra nhng ng phn chia kh hu v ng chia nc. Theo chiu thng ng, cng ln cao nhit v bc hi gim, cn ma tng bn pha sn n gi m. iu ny c th dn n hnh thnh nhng khc bit su sc trong a hnh, cnh quan, thm thc vt v ti nguyn nc gia hai

25

pha sn ni. Ti Vit Nam, khi ma tng 20 - 300mm trn 100m tng cao th dng chy tng 5 - 40mm; Tnh trung bnh lng dng chy tng 16% trn 100m tng cao. a hnh bng phng hn ch tiu thot nc, thun li cho vic ko di thi gian duy tr lp nc trn mt, tng thm. a hnh m thun li cho tch lu trm tch v cha nc, to c ch iu tit t nhin dng chy l. a hnh ct x mnh thun li cho tiu thot nc v tng mt li sng. a hnh dng, dc, di sn dc ln thun li cho tiu thot nc v xi mn b mt, dn n gia tng cc oan dng chy lng v rn. dc sn 3o - 6o gy xi mn sn dc, dc 8o - 10o t b xi mn mnh, l gii hn cui cng c th trng cy nng nghip. t dc 10o - 25o ch c th dnh cho chn nui v cy lm nghip, khng c cy xi. Theo Vi Vn V, dc 25o gy xi mn mnh gp 10 ln dc 10o, dc 15o - gy xi mn mnh gp 2,5 ln dc 10o. dc cng ln, kh nng pht trin ca thc vt cng hn ch, gy nguy c gia tng tp trung nc, tng xi mn v tim n nguy c tai bin mi trng khi thm thc vt t nhin b hu dit. t dc >35o phi bo v v khng khai thc rng. Cng mt t trn sn dc tng nhanh theo s tng ca dc. Ch s xi mn chiu di sn L v ch s xi mn dc S c tnh theo cc tc gi khc nhau nh sau: Sing Wisschmeier L = d0,8 S = a1,49 L = (d/22,5)b S = 0,0028a2 + 0,106a - 0,27

trong : d- di sn dc; a - dc (%); b = 0,3 - 0,6 (tu a) Ngoi qu trnh xi mn cc phn t b ri, tc ng ca nc trn sn dc trong nhng iu kin nht nh v dc v trng thi kt cu ca khi vt cht, cn gy ra nhng hin tng c bit nh st l, trt t, t chy... lm thay i a hnh v tng cng ngun cp ph sa cho sng. a cht th nhng c nh hng ti nc mt, nc di t c v ch , lng v cht do n quyt nh: Mc bn vng ca b mt chng xi mn, ho tan. c im vt cht cun theo. Kh nng thm, cha, gi v cp nc ca t . Th nm v su ca cc tng cha nc di t, t quyt nh c im quan h thu lc gia cc thu vc mt vi ngm v ngm vi nhau. c im lng sng trn mt bng Tnh cht ca nham thch c quan h mt thit vi qu trnh phong ha to vt cht b ri. t cu to khng ng nht, mu sc phn ha, dn nhit nh, nhit dung ring nh s gin n v nhit mnh v khng ng u, nn d b v vn. t c nhiu khe nt, khi b nc lp y cc khe nt v ng bng s b ph mnh hn. xi mn ca t ph thuc tnh cht vt l ca n nh t l ct, bn, st, hm lng mn, cht hu c, cu tng, m trc khi ma, kt cu t... Cc ht mn thng b ra tri trc nht v chuyn dch xa nht. Theo Bouyoucos, 1935, xi mn t t l vi i lng (%ct + %bn)/%st. Wischmeier v Smith (1978), a ra cng thc tnh ch s xi mn t K sau:

26

K = 2,1 M1,14 (12 - a)10-4 + 3,25 (b - 2) + 2,1 (c - 3) trong : M = %(bt + ct mn)/(100 - %st), a- hm lng cht hu c (%), b- cp cu trc ca t, c- cp thm ca t t ti xp, c cu tng, giu mn c kh nng thm nc tt, gi m tt. si, dm, ct c thm, cha v nh nc tt. t st cho nc thm qua v cp nc km v cc l rng ch yu c kch thc mao mch v ht st gp nc trng n. t thm, cha, cp nc tt l iu kin hn ch hnh thnh mt sng sui ln, hn ch hnh thnh cc oan dng chy mt, tng iu tit ma bng dng ngm v ngc li. Ti vng vi Tr Lnh (Cao Bng), K Bng (Qung Bnh), khi t l vi trong lu vc tng 10% dng chy mt gim 8%. vng vi v bazan Vit Nam, t l dng ngm chim ti 30 - 40% tng lng nm, ma l bt u chm hn ma ma 2 thng. Khng ch c c im a cht, m ton b cc hot ng a cht kin to c th li nhng du n su sc ln c im hnh thnh v pht trin ca mng li sng, hnh dng lng sng v thung lng sng... Theo L B Tho [6], sng sui Vit Nam chy qua cao nguyn vi hoc l ct thnh nhng hm vc va hp va di, nh on sng Chy ct qua Bc H (Lo Cai) di 60km, hoc l chi tr tim k l: bin mt trc mt h su thm thm, ri xut hin mt ni no di chn cao nguyn hay mt thung lng kn (ca hin), nh sui Nm Tn pha di Mc H. Dy Hong Lin Sn c cu to t macma, phun tro, phin, vi v cc loi khc, lun b phong ho mnh trong iu kin kh hu Vit Nam, nhng ton b vt liu b ri nhanh chng b cun tri, nn nh ni lun nhn hot nh rng ca, cn chn ni li hnh thnh nhng nn phng vt khng l. T u i Tn sinh, ton vng chu hot ng nng gn nh u khp, lm tng cng cc hot ng xm thc ca nc. Da vo nhng ng nt n ln c sn trong mac ma, cc sng sui, nh nhng li dao sc ngt xn su xung, to thnh nhng thung lng thm thm gia hai sn dc ng. Cnh pha ng Bc chu nh hng st ln ca t gy sng Hng, dn thnh nhng bc thang i thp xung thung lng, nn sng sui c iu kin chy vng vo, ko di ng i. Cnh Ty Nam c nng ln mnh, nghing xung thung lng cc ph lu sng , lm cho chng tr nn ngn v hung d.

1.11.3 Lp ph thc vt
Vai tr ca lp ph thc vt trong qu trnh hnh thnh ti nguyn nc th hin ch: Che ph, ngn khng cho mt t chu tc ng trc tip ca ma, bc x gy phong ho b ri, bo v t chng xi mn v gim dng rn t lu vc vo sng. Lm cho t ti xp, c cu tng, bn vng trc cc tc ng xi mn, gi m t v tng thm to ra tng iu tit dng chy theo ma. iu ho vi kh hu, duy tr m hp l trong t v khng kh Kh nng bo v t ca lp ph thc vt ph thuc vo loi cy, tui cy, mt cy, c im qu trnh khai thc s dng... v tng theo s tng dy tn l, thi gian che ph, ph ca t. B r bo v t chng xi mn do n to khe nt cho nc thm qua v to b mt gh gh, cn tr khng cho dng mt sinh nhiu, chy nhanh, chy thng theo hng sn dc v xi mnh.

27

Theo Khanbecp, trong vng tha m, che ph thc vt thch hp nht l 60%, vng kh - 25%. Theo FAO, lu vc c che ph <20% b xem l ngho kit, <30% l di ngng an ton sinh thi. Theo Nguyn Quang M, Vit Nam, t rng t nhin dc 15 2o, che ph >80%, b xi mn 4 tn/ha/nm, vng cy bi, cy n qu, che ph 40 60%, b xi mn 64tn/ha/nm, t la v hoa mu c dc 3 - 8o, che ph <10% trn t b xi mn 107tn/ha/nm. Biu thc tnh xi mn tng hp do Wischmeier v Smith (1978) a ra c dng: A = R. K. L. S. C. P trong : A- lng t b xi mn (tn/ha/nm), R- ch s xi mn do ma, L- ch s xi mn do chiu di sn dc, S- ch s xi mn do dc, C- ch s xi mn do lp ph thc vt ,K- ch s xi mn ca t, P- ch s xi mn do bin php canh tc

1.12 nh hng ca bin ng kh hu ti ti nguyn nc

Kh hu Tri t thng xuyn thay i, vi nhng k bng h, di khong 100.000 nm, xen k k nng ln, di khong 10.000 - 20.000 nm, nh hng to ln ti ton b hoc mt b phn h sinh thi t nhin v x hi loi ngi. Trong k nng ln hay lnh i ca Tri t cng c nhng giai on ngn Tri t lnh i hoc nng ln. Hin chng ta ang sng trong k nng ln ca Tri t, bt u cch y khong 11.000 nm. Bin ng kh hu ton cu din ra theo hai xu th: C tnh quy lut, lin quan vi bin ng ca cc nhn t c quy lut trn Tri t hoc ngoi v tr. Bt thng, lin quan vi hot ng bt thng ca Tri t v tc ng nhn sinh. Nguyn nhn gy bin ng kh hu ton cu c tnh quy lut rt a dng, trong ng ch l do thay i dng nng lng bc x Mt Tri n mt t, ph thuc ba nguyn nhn: Thay i v tr Tri t so vi Mt Tri. Bin ng cng hot ng ca Mt Tri. Vt cn dng bc x Mt Tri c trong kh quyn. Khong cch Tri t - Mt Tri lun thay i v qu o quanh Mt Tri ca Tri t khng n nh. Mi chu k thay i t qu o trn n qu o bu dc khong 100.000 nm v c th lm thay i 7% nng lng Mt Tri n mt t. Hin nay qu o Tri t quanh Mt Tri ang l gn trn. Trc Tri t nghing mt gc t 22o n 25o trong chu k chao o 25.600 nm (8/nm), lm tng hoc gim khong 20% nng lng Mt Tri n Tri t. Khi trc tng nghing, bng cc gn Mt Tri s tan nhiu hn, gy tng mc nc v m rng din tch i dng, kh hu Tri t nng ln. Khi nghing gim, bng cc pht trin, trn v vng n i, bng h ni cao cng pht trin, kh hu Tri t lnh i. Hin gc nghing ang l 23o 37 , lm cho Tri t gn Mt Tri hn vo thng ging, ma ng Bc Bn Cu m hn Nam Bn Cu. Nhit b mt Mt Tri khong 6.000oC. Trung bnh 11 nm mt ln, b mt Mt Tri xut hin nhiu vt en c nhit >4.000oC, km vi cc tai la nhit 7.000o C - 10.000oC. l nm Mt Tri hot ng mnh nht, pht ra nhng lung bc x rt mnh lm gia tng nng

28

lng Mt Tri n Tri t, gy ra nhiu hin tng nh bin i t trng Tri t, cc quang. Nhng nm vt en t, nng lng Mt Tri n Tri t gim. Tro, bi ni la hoc t nhng m chy ln, nhng v va p c bit vi thin thch lm tng hp th, phn x v gim xuyn qua ca bc x Mt Tri, gim chiu sng, thay i nhit Tri t. Lch s c nhiu bng chng chng t tng xy ra nhng v va chm vi cc thin thch ng knh >5 km (xc sut 10 n 30 triu nm), tung vo kh quyn lng bi ln, che ph bu tri trong thi gian di. Mt trong nhng v nh th c th xy ra cch y 60 triu nm, gy dit vong khng long, cng khong 60 - 75% loi khc. Ni la Pinatub (Philipin) tng tung 18 triu tn tro bi ln cao 31.000m, lm nhit trung bnh Tri t nm gim 0,2oC. Trong lch s chu u v Trung ng, bin ng kh hu gy nn s thay i ch nhit m, iu kin kh hu nng nghip, gy tn tht nng sut, sn lng nng nghip v bin ng h x hi. S gia tng nhit khng kh giai on 14.000 TCN - 1200 SCN c nhng tc ng tch cc hnh thnh h x hi v nn nng nghip khu vc, loi tr mt s bt li vng Sahara, Israen (Bng 1.5) T 1860 - 1990 nhit trung bnh Tri t tng 0,5 oC, din bin theo 4 thi k: 1860 1900 v 1940 - 1970 nhit n nh, 1900 - 1940 v 1970 - 1990 nng dn ln. S nng ln ca Tri t din ra khng ng u. Nguyn nhn ca s nng ln c th do: gia tng hiu ng nh knh, bin ng tun hon i dng, nhiu lon hot ng Mt Tri, ni la phun d di... Tc ng ca bin ng kh hu ton cu ti cc vng a l khng ging nhau. Nng ln lm m rng din tch sa mc nhit i, tan bng, ngp cc vng t thp ven bin, kh hu nc Anh, Bc u, Bc , Bc M m ln, lm tng sn lng la m, nhng vng ni cao bng tuyt vnh cu c th b tan ht bng tuyt v s c thc vt pht trin. Lnh i c th lm cho bng h bao ph tr li v mi vic o ngc hon ton. Khi iu kin kh hu bin ng bt thng v qu khc nghit th s dn n bng pht, suy gim hoc tuyt dit nhiu loi, gy dch bnh hoc mt cn bng sinh thi. Th gii chng kin s bng pht bnh dch do tc ng ca kh hu nh dch hch, dch st ng g v st rt lan trn, do lt li ni tip ngay sau nhiu t nng nng gay gt. Dch st ng g xy ra trn quy m ln vo cc nm 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995 Trung M, dch st vng da chu Phi, t n nm 1993. Nm 1995, ti Venedula xy ra dch vim no truyn qua mui, dch st ly truyn qua cc loi gm nhm v dch c cht do to bin nhim c.
Bng 1.5: Bin ng kh hu chu u-Trung ng v tc ng [13] Nm 8000 - 6000 TCN 6000 - 3500 TCN 3500 - 1000 TCN 900 TCN-300 (SCN) 400 800 -1200 800 Dng chy sng Nin gim Sahara v Israen kh hn. L lt nghim trng Mesopotamia. Pha Bc mt, m; Mc nc bin tng; Ma gim a Trung Hi; Hn chu ; l lt bin Bc o Nng hn hin ti 1 C. Kh hn Ty Bc u Kh hu thu vn Nng tng, bng h ni cao tan, m Trung ng. Nhit gim, ma ln Sahara, bng chm dt Scandinavan v Laurentide c im vn ho x hi nh c chn ni. Hnh thnh nn nng nghip th ho ng bng c nc. Nng nghip c ti Trung ng, Ty - Bc Chu u Chm dt triu i cc Hong Ai Cp. Nng nghip pht trin Chu u do thi tit mt Nng nghip pht trin a Trung Hi; o Nho v liu tin ln Bc u, n 5 Bc Ma v tht thu Sn lng nng nghip vng nhit i

29

1350

1820

1850 - nay

Lnh hn hin nay 1oC. Nng hn 0,5oC. Nhit nc Bc Atlantic tng. Mc nc bin tng. Gi mnh ln pha Ty. Ma nhiu Ty Bc chu u. Nhit trung bnh Tri t tng. Bin ng kh hu ton cu gy nn nhng hin tng kh hu thi tit cc oan khp ni

chu M tng do nng ln ton cu, v phn bn. tng CO2 Thit hi ln do thin tai khp ni

Th k XX, mc nc bin tng 1 mm/nm, cng lc vi vic CO2 kh quyn tng t 315ppm (1958) ln 360 ppm (1990) v nhit Tri t tng 0,5oC. a phn cc nh khoa hc cho rng nguyn nhn khin mc nc bin tng c lin quan vi gia tng hiu ng nh knh lm Tri t nng ln, bng tuyt vnh cu tan nhiu hn. V v th cc gii php cho vn bin i kh hu ton cu tp trung vo gim x thi cht kh gy hiu ng nh knh. n 2030 - 2050, c on CO2 s tng gp i so vi trc cch mng cng nghip, lm nhit khng kh tng trung bnh 2oC, vng cc tng 7oC, cn vng xch o gim 1oC. Gia tng hiu ng nh knh c th lm tng cng ma, tng 10% lng ma. Nhit trung bnh Tri t tng 1oC, 2oC, 3oC v mc nc bin s tng tng ng 15cm, 50cm, 95cm.
Bng 1.5. EnNino LaNina o Bnh thng nhit mt bin Ty TBD 28 - 29 C, chu c v ng Nam ma nhiu. B ng TBD c o bit kh hn, nhit thp hn 21 - 26 C, l ni c nc tri sinh ngun c trng khng l, nh bt 7 triu tn/nm, km theo l 26 triu con chim bin. EnNino l hin tng bt thng v thi tit v ngun c bin b ng TBD, xy ra 3 - 4 nm/ln, bt u t l Ging Sinh. Khi u, mt nc b ng nng thm 4 - 5oC trong 3 ma, gy ma ln, bo nhit i rt mnh, l qut, trt t, l bn d di. Nc tri bin mt, sn lng c trng gim, cn 2 triu tn/nm, chim bin cn 6 triu con. Trong khi vng nhit i Ty TBD lnh i, dng kh ging bin mt, kh hn ko di. K tip EnNino thng xy ra La Nina, mt nc bin ng TBD lnh i d thng, gy kh hn nghim trng nhng vng vn khan him nc trong khu vc. T 1950 - 2000 quan st c 14 ln EnNino v 10 ln LaNina. EnNino xut hin vo nm 1925, 1930, 1941 - 1942, 1972 - 1973, 1976 - 1977, 1982 - 1983, 1997 - 1998. Trc y, EnNino ch ko di vi thng, gy bin ng thi tit ven b TBD. Hai k EnNino cui ko di hn, gy ra nhng bin ng rng hn. EnNino gy gim dng bo, ma Nam M, ng Nam , Bc Australia, ma nhiu vng nhit i Ty Nam M, ng Chu Phi, cn nhit i Bc M, Nam M. Bo nhit i rt mnh b vo Bc M; Vng bin Ty Mhic v M nng ln, xut hin ma l vo lc ng l l ma ng tuyt ph. Kh hn hn bnh thng ng Nam chu Phi v ng Bc Nam M, Bc Australia, Innxia, Philippin, gy ra hoc lm tng cng nn chy rng, ko theo hng lot cc s c mi trng khc. Xen k gia nhng t kh hn l nhng trn ma d di him thy, gy thm ho l lt, l qut bt thng nhiu ni... EnNino vi nhng bt thng thi tit gy nn nhiu h qu tai hi cho thin nhin mi trng v kinh t x hi ton cu. Ngi ta cho rng s gia tng quy m EnNino l mt b phn ca bin i kh hu ton cu, rng EnNino v LaNina c mi lin h vi nhiu lon dao ng Nam Bn cu (SO) trong trng kh p mt bin, gia Bc Australia v trung tm TBD, gy bin ng thi tit, kh hu cc nc trong v ven bin TBD v gi chng bng tn kt hp l ENSO.

D bo bin ng ma do gia tng hiu ng nh knh khng thng nht nh nghin cu v nhit v c tnh a phng r nt. T chc kh tng th gii cho rng ma v bc hi ton cu s tng khong 4 -12% khi CO2 tng gp i, nhng s phn ho bin ng theo a phng th cha c nghin cu lm r. Cc tc gi khc nhau c nhng kt qu rt khc nhau trong tnh ton vng b kh hn mnh do gia tng hiu ng nh knh.

1.13 Tc ng nhn sinh ti ti nguyn nc

1.13.1 Tc ng trc tip
Tc ng trc tip ti ti nguyn nc l cc hot ng thuc loi sau: Thay i quy lut phn phi ti nguyn nc theo khng gian, nh o sng chuyn dng, ti tiu, dn chuyn nc t ni ny n ni khc.

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Thay i mt s thnh phn trong cn cn nc khu vc theo thi on, nh iu tit dng chy bng h cha nhn to, tng din tch ti lm m rng din tch mt nc lm tng thm, tng bc hi... Thay i c trng hnh thi v thu lc thu vc, nh thu hp, m rng lng sng, nn thng hoc un cong khc sng, dn ti thay i ch dng chy, tng gim vn tc v ng nng dng nc, thay i tng tc dng nc lng sng, thay i sc ti ct v hm lng ph sa sng... X cht gy nhim. Chi tit v cc hin tng ny s c trnh by trong cc phn sau ca gio trnh.

1.13.2 Tc ng gin tip

Nhng hot ng ca con ngi gin tip dn ti thay i iu kin hnh thnh dng chy l: Thay i kh hu, thi tit: Bin ng kh hu ton cu lm thay i quy lut hnh thnh ma, bo, hn hn... gia tng ri ro lin quan ti nc. Thay i c im b mt lu vc nh: Ph rng, canh tc nng nghip khng hp l trn t dc gy bin ng nghim trng ch dng chy lng v rn, c bit l gia tng cc hin tng cc oan nh l lt, hn hn, tng dng chy ph sa... Thay i c im a hnh nh tng (gim) dc, cao... dn n lm thay i ch dng chy, tng (gim) cc oan dng chy. th ho, b tng ho, b t hoang ho l nhng qu trnh dn n gim thm nghim trng, to ra cc oan trong ch dng chy nh tng dng chy l, gim dng chy kit...

1.14 Tai bin mi trng lin quan ti ti nguyn nc

1.14.1 Tng quan
Nhng cc im kh hu thu vn trn Tri t ghi nhn c l: Lng ma trung bnh ln nht nh Waialeale - Hawai, 11.680mm/nm; Lng ma hu nh bng khng ti sa mc Atacama - Chil; Thu triu cao nht vnh Fundy - Nova Scotia: 16m. Trong s nhng thm ho t nhin nghim trng t 1963 - 1992, cc thm ho lin quan ti kh hu v thu vn chim s lng ln (55%), nh hng ti 65% dn s ton cu. Tn tht v kinh t v con ngi do cc thm ho ny gy ra c xu th ngy cng tng do: Mt u t kinh t v dn c trn cc vng b nh hng ngy cng tng; Kh khn trong d bo, phng trnh thin tai; Bin ng kh hu ton cu gy gia tng c v tn sut v mc thin tai. Thit hi giai on 1983 - 1987 tng mnh lin quan n hn hn nghim trng ti chu Phi gy i nng n. Trung bnh thi k 1991 - 1995, mi nm th gii thit hi gn 440 t la M do thin tai, trong chu 238 t, chu M 107 t, chu u 90 t, chu c 6 t v chu Phi 0,8 t. Thit hi do cc loi hnh tai bin mi trng lin quan ti ti nguyn nc, nh l lt, hn hn, khng th ch tnh bng s ngi v ti sn trc tip b mt, m phi tnh ti nhng tn tht do cc thm ho i km, l h qu trc tip ca cc tai bin trn, v d nh mt ma, bnh dch, i km

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Thit hi do cc thin tai lin quan n nc cng c tnh phn ho giu ngho r nt. Ngi giu c c hi la chn, phng trnh, khc phc thm ho cao hn, h thng c tr trong nhng vng an ton hn, nh ca vng chc hn, c iu kin ng ph tt hn vi tai bin, do xc sut b thit hi v tnh mng v ti sn nhn chung l thp hn, tr trng hp c bit nghim trng. Ngi ngho khng c c hi la chn nn thng phi chp nhn sng ti nhng vng c xc sut thm ho cao hn; V do kh nng kinh t hn ch, trnh nhn thc v kh nng tip cn vi thng tin thp hn, ngi ngho d gp ri ro hn.

1.14.2 L lt
L l hin tng mc nc sng dng ln trong khong thi gian nht nh, do tng cng cp nc cho sng mc cao v nhanh, tng lu lng, gy nn hin tng: Tng mnh vn tc v ng nng ca dng nc, dn n lm cho chng c kh nng ti ct cao, chuyn vn theo dng nc mt lng ph sa, t ln, hoc c kh nng ph hu b y t nhin cng nh cc cng trnh nhn to trong vng nc chy. Tng nhanh mc nc dn n trn b gy lt. Nguyn nhn tng cp nc sinh l lt c th l: T nhin, do ma ln tp trung, c tnh quy lut. Nhn to, do x ch ng qua cng trnh ngn dng, hoc do v p, khng c tnh quy lut. L c phn loi nh sau: L nh - nh l thp hn nh trung bnh nhiu nm. L va: nh l t mc trung bnh nhiu nm. L ln: nh l cao hn nh trung bnh nhiu nm. L c bit ln: c nh cao him thy trong thi k quan trc. L lch s l trn l c nh cao nht trong chui s liu quan trc hoc do iu tra kho st c bng cc nghin cu hi tng, iu tra vt l lch s Trong qu trnh hnh thnh l, yu t hnh dng lu vc, li sng, c im sn dc, thc vt c nh hng ng k ti mc tp trung nc sinh l. Ngi ta tm thy s ng dng gia ng cong phn b din tch lu vc theo thi gian chy truyn vi phn b dng chy l theo thi gian v iu ny c th gii thch c bng cng thc cn nguyn dng chy. Mc c lit ca nh l tng khi i t li sng hnh cnh cy sang dng song song, nan qut v gim khi mt li sng tng. dc, di sn dc cng ln nc tp trung cng nhanh, a hnh m t v kh nng thm km lm tng lng dng mt, che ph rng cng nh l cng c lit. Mc c lit ca l c nh gi qua cc c trng: cng sut l ln, cao trnh nh l, bin l, thi im xut hin nh l, lu lng dng l, thi gian l. Bin l l tr s chnh lch mc nc gia nh l v mc nc ngay trc lc l ln. L ln cng nhanh th c hi d bo kp thi v trin khai cc gii php ng ph gim thiu thit hi cng hn ch, nguy c tn tht cng cao. Mc nc ln cng cao th nguy c lt cng ln v gii php cng trnh ngn nga, nu c th, cng tn km, kh khn. Lu lng nc cng ln th ng nng ph hoi ca dng nc cng ln v mc gy ngp khi trn b cng cao. Thi gian duy tr mc nc cao cng ln th nguy c tn tht v ri ro cng cao do kh nng chu ng ca t

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nhin v kh nng i ph ca con ngi hn ch. Thng thng, mt s loi cy c th chu c mc ngp nht nh trong mt thi hn no , ch khi ngp ko di chng mi b tn hi. Trong nhng trn l ko di mi d tr nhn lc vt lc, lng thc, nc sch... c nguy c khng dng. H thng iu ngn l bng t khng chu c ngp lu... L lt cn gy nn nhng bin ng lng sng phc tp nh l b, ct dng, i ca, gy h qu xu cho kinh t x hi khu vc. Mc c lit ca l lt gia tng khi: Thay i iu kin hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc theo hng tng cng dng mt (nh tng tc chy truyn trn sn dc, gim thm, thu hp dung tch iu tit t nhin ca cc a hnh trng) v tng cng dng vt cht cun theo. Xut hin cc cng trnh thu hp mt ct hot ng ca dng nc, gim chiu rng v tng su dng nc. Xy dng cng trnh lm gim mt li sng, tng dc mt nc (nh nn thng dng, ct dng ...). Dng nc h lu cn tr qu trnh chy xui dng, nh nc vt, triu cng, bo...

HNH 1.2. QUAN H GIA CC C TRNG LU VC V HNH DNG L

1- Quan h gia hnh dng lu vc v hnh dng l. 2- Quan h gia dc lu vc v hnh dng l. 3- Quan h gia hnh dng li sng v hnh dng l. 4- Quan h mt li sng v hnh dng l. S dng cao mc nc trong h thng sng gy cn tr tiu thot nc ma v dng chy mt t cc a hnh trng ng bng, dn n hnh thnh ngp ng cc b, a phng. L lt li du n rt su v xu trong lch s nhn loi, bi nhng tn tht trc tip v ngi v ca m n gy ra l tp trung, to ln, chim v tr hng u c v s v, s ngi cht v b nh hng. Hu l lt, vi i km, bnh dch, cng gieo rc nhiu ni kinh hong v gy hu qu nghim trng. Do vy lch s ghi li kh y tn tht trong cc trn lt ln trn th gii. Sng Hong H trong 3.500 nm gn y gy ra 5.963 ln ngp lt, 1.593 ln v v 26 ln i dng, l nm 1887 lm cht 7 triu ngi. Nm 1998 l lt trn ngp

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gn 1/4 lnh th Trung Quc lm cht 3.004 ngi, nh hng ti 223 triu ngi, tn tht 166,7 t nhn dn t.

1.14.3 L qut
L qut l mt dng l ni c bit, xy ra nhanh (bt ng), c sc cng ph ln. Theo Nguyn ng D, thng l qut hnh thnh khi c lng ma ln trong thi gian ngn, trn cc lu vc sng nh, dc ln, a hnh chia ct mnh, bt ngun t ni cao, mt sng sui dy, h s un khc nh, mt ct dc sng c dng ng cong lm, khu sinh l c dc ln v rt ln, cn khu chu l c dc nh, iu kin thot l hn ch, ng thot l c th pht sinh cn tr. Lu vc loi ny cn thun li cho vic tch lu nhiu vt cht b ri v pht sinh trt l, xi mn, tim n nguy c pht sinh l bn .

1.14.4 L bn
L bn l dng chy l c hm lng bn ct t 200- 1.200kg/m3, k c tng, to thnh mt khi chuyn dch c st. Khi bn ct chuyn theo l chim khong 30 - 50% th tch chung. Thnh phn bn gm 25 - 60% ht mn, ct, cn li l cc ht ln v tng. Dng bn chuyn ng khng lin tc m thnh ln sng hoc t vi khong thi gian vi pht v bin sng thay i 2 - 4m, cao sng c th t ti 7m, tc chuyn dch t 2 - 5m/s. Nguyn nhn l do s n tc gy nn bi tng hoc ng t ti nhng ch a hnh km thun li, v s ph v n tc khi tch lu bn ln. Mc n li v tnh cht bin ng ca chuyn ng cng vi bo ho ph sa, t va l nt c o nht ca l bn , va l nguyn nhn chnh gy ra sc cng ph mnh ca dng bn . Din bin lng sng ni c l bn i qua xy ra lin tc v phc tp. Lng sng sau l bn b bin dng mnh, c ni bn lng ng thnh bi cao 2 - 3m, c ni b xi thnh rnh su 5 - 8m, di 5 - 6km. Trng lng kh ca bn ct lng ng t ti 1,6 - 2tn/m3. Din tch bi bi hnh tam gic chu do bn ct lng ng ti ni l chm dt rng hng 100km2.
Bng 1.6. L bn Ngy 13/8/1887 trn sui Phu Sn (Anp), mt dng chy gm hn hp nc v t to thnh bc tng thng ng rng ti 25m mt chnh ca l, di chuyn t ni xung vi tc khong 1,5 m/s dc theo sui. Trong phn u sng l, cc tng na ni, na chm gia bn c, va chm vo nhau gy ra chui ting ng m m. i sau cc tng l khi st cao khong 4m gm t mn v hn. ui sng l l phn tng i lng trn v c st di. Khi gp chng ngi vt trong lng sng, cc tng b tc li, ngp vo khi bn, km hm s di chuyn ca ton dng, nng trn l ln cao 6 - 7m, ti mc p lc ca khi ln, chng thng sc cn, tip tc chuyn dch. Thi gian l ch xy ra trong vi gi. Thnh phn c gii ca bn ct trong trn l nm 1932 trn sng Blcantrai nh sau: Ht mn 50 - 60%; Ct th 30 - 35%; si, tng 10 - 15%. Trn l bn trn sng Kistrai nm 1931 dch chuyn c c tng ln n 127m3 v lng bn cun theo li trn din tch 25km2 l 120.000m3/km2 T 14-18/8/1996 ti Mng Lay, Lai Chu, ma trn 400mm gy l bn , sc tn ph mnh hn c my bay B52 ri thm. Ph x b vi lp trong bn v t dy hng mt, c ni bn x thnh ng cao lm 63 ngi cht, 163ha rung b vi lp trong bin .

Theo c im dng l, Velicannp chia chng thnh ba dng: 1- L l khi dch th hn hp c st ca nc, ct, bn, t st, cy do xi l; Khi ngng chuyn ng khi bn ct ny lng ng dn nh dung nham; Thng xut hin nhng vng thng ngun sng c cu to bng t hong th, ct pha st d xi, hoc vng c cht thi do khai thc m.

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2- L l dch th hn hp gm nc, ct, t st, bn v nhng ht th hn nh cui, si, dm, tng, trong tng chuyn ng khng lin tc, lc dng, lc di chuyn di tc ng va p ca sng l. L loi ny thng xut hin cc ngun sng sui c cu to a cht bng cc lp dip thch, st, sa thch v vi d b ph hoi. 3- L l khi dch th ch yu gm nc v , cn st, ct khng nhiu, chy thnh tng, trn mt l nc, y l si v tng, thng ng trn lng sng. Trong qu trnh pht trin, l bn c th chuyn t loi ny sang loi kia, v d nh t l bn sang l nc v cui cng l l bnh thng. iu kin thun li pht sinh l bn l: C khi lng vt cht b ri ln (c th l sn phm ca qu trnh phong ho trong thi k khng ma ko di, s c trt l t, ni la, hoc nhn to). dc sn dc v lng sng ln. Cp nc sinh dng chy ln (ma ln hoc bng tan mnh do thi tit, ni la). L bn thng xut hin ni sng sui kh cn, dc y ln, sn thung lng dc n 45o v cu to bng cc loi t d b ph hoi, khng c lp ph thc vt nn h qu phong ho, bo mn, xm thc rt ln. Ngoi ra, trong mt s trng hp c bit, l bn c th c sinh ra do ni la hot ng, v p, st l ni, tuyt tan, bng h

1.14.5 Hn hn
Hn hn l hin tng thin tai lin quan ti nc nghim trng khng km g l lt c v quy m tc ng v tn tht. Khi nim hn hn ca cc ngnh nghin cu v dng nc khc nhau khng ging nhau. Hn kh tng l s thiu ht nc trong cn cn ma - bc hi, xy ra trong thi k khng ma ko di v gia tng khi nng nhiu, nhit cao, gi mnh, thi tit kh ro. Cc nh kh hu Vit Nam xc nh mt s ch tiu hn vi cc iu kin ma c th nh sau: t hn l t nht 20 ngy lin tc lng ma khng qu 10mm, trong ngy ma nhiu nht khng qu 5mm. Tun hn khi lng ma tun khng qu 5mm. Thng hn khi lng ma thng khng qu 10mm. Tuy nhin y ch l mt du hiu v s thiu kh nng cp nc trc tip cho lu vc t ma, ch cha ni ln c mc thiu m thc t ca n. Ch s kh hn thng v nm (K) c tnh theo cng thc sau: K = Ep.P-1 trong : Ep - lng bc hi o theo ng Piche, P- lng ma. Theo quy c, ma kh hn l nhng thng lin tc c K >1 Thu vn hc coi hn l thi k mc nc trong cc thu vc mt v ngm thp hn trung bnh nhiu nm r rt, ti mc khng p ng cc nhu cu dng nc ti thiu. H s hn c tnh bng cng thc Kh = (Kk.Kc)1/2 vi Kk = 1 - P/Emax, Kc = (1 - Qi. Qj).Qj.Qo

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trong : Kk l h s kh, P l lng ma, Emax l bc hi kh nng, Kc l h s cn, Qi l lu lng thi on i ca nm j, Qj l lu lng nm j, Qo l lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm. >1. Cp hn theo Kh quy nh nh sau: Hn nh Kh<0,6; Hn va 0,6 Kh 1; Hn nng Kh

Mc nc sng xung thp ng ngha vi kh nng cp nc t cc tng nc ngm v iu tit nhn to nc mt b hn ch, tc t trn lu vc thiu ht m mnh, kho nc cn kit. Nguyn nhn gy gim cp nc cho sng t nc ngm l do ma v iu kin hnh thnh dng thm trn lu vc hn ch. Ma t trong ma l, hoc kh nng tp trung nc trn mt ln, thm km th lng nc b sung cho nc ngm cng t. Ma t trong ma kit lm gim b sung m cho lu vc v tng tiu th nc. Ngoi ra cc yu t nh hng ti iu tit nc mt trn lu vc cng l nguy c gy ra kh hn. l: Gim dung tch iu tit, khng tch y cc dung tch iu tit trong ma ma. Tiu th nc khng c k hoch theo thi gian cng gy thiu nc cp cui ma. Khi m t xung thp hn m cy ho, cy s thiu nc, ho ri cht, gi l hn ng rung. Khi nc c lng mui khong cao th cy trng cng khng hp th c, sinh ra hin tng hn sinh l. Mc tc ng ca hn hn va ph thuc vo cng v thi gian tn ti ca n, va tu thuc vo trnh pht trin kinh t x hi ca vng chu hn. Thng thng, hn hn gy ra cc tc ng sau: Gim din tch, nng sut, sn lng cy trng, c bit l cy lng thc. Gim quy m v cht lng n gia sc nui. Gy thiu i, suy dinh dng. Tng chi ph sn xut, gi thnh sn phm, c bit l trong nng nghip. Gy khng hong kinh t, ngho kh. Suy gim ngun nc dn n suy thoi ti nguyn Thiu iu kin cp nc sch v m bo v sinh, to iu kin cho dch bnh pht trin. Pht sinh tranh chp v nc. Nguy c pht sinh v kh dp tt nn chy rng. Ti cc nc nhit i gi ma chu , hn hn thng do s xut hin chm ca dng phng lu nhit i, lm gi ma ma h n chm. Hin tng ny thng khng ko di nh chu Phi, chu c, chu M, nhng cng gy thit hi khng nh, do n khng mang tnh quy lut, khin c dn khng c thi quen d tr nc cui ma kh. S lng ngi chu tc ng ca hn hn trn ton cu l ln nht so vi cc thm ho c thng k khc (33%). S cc v hn hn cng chim ti 22% v thm ho c thng k trn ton cu t 1963 - 1992. Tuy nhin, do hin tng mang tnh trng din v nhiu thit hi do n gy ra khng mang tnh tc thi, tuyt i, s ngi cht th rt nh, ch 3% tng s ngi thit mng do cc loi thm ho khc nhau, nn vn cha c quan tm ng tm cn thit. Theo thng k ca Lin Hp Quc, ch ring chu Phi c 219 triu ngi b nn i e do do hn hn gy ra, trong c nhng nc, nh Nigiria, tipia s ngi ny chim ti 50% dn s.

1.14.6 Cc dng tai bin, ri ro mi trng khc lin quan ti nc

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Tai bin a cht mi trng nh trt l, st ln... c lin quan trc tip vi hot ng ca nc ngm t nhin, khai thc nc ngm, thay i ch dng chy, thay i iu kin a hnh, thc vt v cc hot ng nhn sinh khc. Trt t l qu trnh di chuyn chm ca nhng khi t ln, m khng lm o ln tnh nguyn khi ca n. Nguyn nhn ch yu ca hin tng trt t l do nc ngm gy xi ngm vng y khi trt, lm suy yu lc lin kt gia khi trt v thn sn dc. iu kin cu trc thun li sinh trt t l: cc tng nm nghing theo chiu dc ca sn, c s xen k cc tng thm nc v chn nc, nht l khi c nhiu tng hoc thu knh st xen vi cc tng ct kt, bt kt, c lng nc ngm tng i phong ph v c h thng khe nt pht trin trn mt sn. Trt t tng cng khi c cc cng trnh nng, hoc ti nc qu mnh mp sn dc. St ln t c th xy ra ti nhng vng nc di t b khai thc vt qu kh nng ti to lm cho cc tng t cha nc b rng v gim kh nng chu ti. St ln cng xy ra ti nhng vng caxt, vng d b ra tri, ha tan ngm to ra nhng vm hang cng ngy cng m rng ln pha mt t, ti lc vm hang khng dy chng vi sc mnh ca chnh n th n c th s st xung, hnh thnh cc h tim thc. Suy thoi ti nguyn t trong mt s trng hp c lin quan trc tip vi nc, nh chua ho, mn ho th sinh t, sa mc ho... Nc cn l nguyn nhn gin tip gy nn mt s bnh nh: Bnh do vi khun: Bnh t, thng hn, ph thng hn, l thng lin quan vi nc b nhim phn ngi bnh. Vi khun thng hn c th sng trong ging 4 tun, trong nc h v sng 25 ngy; Vi khun l sng c 6 - 7 ngy trong nc. Bnh do brucella gy st ln sng, thng gp vng nui d, cu. Bnh do siu vi khun (vi rut): Vim gan siu vi c th truyn qua s hn sng trong vng nhn nc thi sinh hot bi loi vi rut thuc nhm salmonella. Siu vi khun vim gan sng c trong nc ging 6 tun. Bnh do adenovirut: nhim t ngun phn v nc thi sinh hot, gy nhim khun cp din. Mt s loi gy vim kt mc thng gp khi tm cc ao h, h cha b nhim adenovirut. Bnh do vt ch trung gian truyn bnh sng trong mi trng m t nh: Sn l phi: vt ch trung gian truyn bnh l cua sui. Vit Nam tng pht hin c bnh vng Sn H (Lai Chu), lin quan trc tip vi thi quen n cua nng cha chn ca c dn a phng. Bnh c biu hin ging nh lao phi, gy suy gim sc kho v t vong. Bnh sn mng (chn voi): vt ch trung gian l c sn thu sinh hay lng c, pht trin tt trong nc c nhiu c v cht hu c, c bit d sng trong cc h thng thu li. Trn th gii, bnh ny xy ra 76 nc, vi khong 200 triu dn nhim k sinh trng. Bnh lm cho chn phnh to, sc kho v sc lao ng suy gim. St do mui, ng ch l st rt, st xut huyt, st ng g, st rt e do khong 2 t ngi trn Tri t, trong c khong 240 triu ngi lc no cng c k sinh trng st rt v hng nm c khong 100 triu ngi phi iu tr chng bnh ny. Vec t truyn bnh l

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mui Anphen, c u trng a phn pht trin trong nc ngt sch, giu xy v mt s t a sng trong vng nc giu hu c hoc hi mn. c im ny dn n nguy c bng n dch st rt theo ma v, khi th do kh hn lm nng mui cao thun li cho s pht trin ca loi a mn, lc li lin quan vi s di do ngun nc ngt. Thnh phn ho hc ca nc cn c nh hng gin tip n cc tp on mui thng qua vic to iu kin thun li cho cc vi sinh vt l thc n ca u trng mui pht trin, hay bng cch nh hng n cc cht dit mui c tnh sinh hc. Theo Mather, cht lng nc c th trc tip tng cng tc nhn truyn bnh, hoc to ra nhng iu kin thun li cho n. Tc ng ca con ngi n cht nc gy nh hng ti kch thc, thnh phn tc nhn truyn bnh v cn trng c hi theo nhng cch sau: 1M rng mt nc theo khng gian v thi gian, lm tng khng gian sng cho sinh vt gy bnh; 2- Lm bin i qun th ng thc vt thu sinh, to iu kin gia tng t bin cc loi c hi; 3- Tc ng trc tip n tc nhn truyn bnh.