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V XC SUT CA BIN C
1.1.
a) Gi A l bin c xut hin mt su chm khi gieo con xc xc.
S kt cc ng kh nng n = 6. S kt cc thun li cho bin c A l m =1.
Vy:
P(A)= =
b) Gi B l bin c mt c s chn chm xut hin.
S kt cc thun li cho B l n = 3. Vy:
P(B) = = = 0.5
1.2
a) Gi A l bin c ly ra tm ba c xut hin ch s 5. khi l bin c
khng xut hin ch s 5. V s kt cc ng kh nng l 100, trong khi s kt
cc thun li cho A l 19, nn s kt cc thun li cho l 81.
Vy
P ( ) = 0.81.
b) t 1 n 100 c 50 s chn nn c 50 s chia ht cho 2.
C 20 s chia ht cho 5, trong 10 s va chia ht cho 5 va chia ht cho 2.
Do vy s kt cc thun li cho bin c ly ln ba c s hoc chia ht cho 2,
hoc chia ht cho 5, hoc chia ht cho c 2 v 5 l 50 +20-10 = 60.
Vy P(A)= =0.6.
1.3
a) A = qu cu th nht l trng
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng l tt c cc phng php ly c 1 qu
cu ra khi (a+b) qu cu. Vy n = a+b.
S kt cc thun li ly ra qu cu th nht mu trng l a.
Vy xc sut P(A) =
b) Nu qu th nht trng th chn qu th 2 s cn a+b-1 kt cc ng kh
nng.
S kt cc thun li qu th 2 mu trng l a-1
Vy xc sut P(B) =
c) tng t cu b), v qu th hai l trng nn s kt cc ng kh nng khi chn
qu th nht l a+b-1 trong khi s kt qu thun li l a-1.
Vy P(C) =
1.4.
a) S kt qu ng kh nng thc ra hon v ca a + b qu cu nn m = (a+b)!
nu qu cu th 2 l trng th s kt qu thun li cho bin c ny l chnh hp
chp a+b-1 phn t ca a+b phn t.
Vy xc sut P(A) = .
b) gi B l bin c qu cu cui cng l trng. Khi tng t cu a), ta cng c
xc sut P(B) =
1.5.
1
2
Sp (S)
Nga (N)
Sp (S)
SS
NS
Nga (N)
SN
NN
S cch tr m c th xy ra l A =6.
d) c 3 ngi cng c tr ng m th ch c 1 kt cc thun li nn
P(D)=
c) Khng th c kh nng ch c ng 2 ngi c tr ng m, v chc chn
ngi th 3 cng s ng m, nn P( C) = 0
b) s kt cc thun li c ng 1 ngi c tr ng m l 3
Vy P(B) = = 0,5.
a) xc sut c 3 ngi b tr sai m l:
P(A) = 1 - - 0,5 =
1.8.
Ta c biu tp hp nh sau:
1.10.
S kt cc ng kh nng khi thc hin php th ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm l
t hp chp 3 ca 15 phn t, vy n = C = 455
a) A = 3 chi tit ly ra t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho A l
C =120
P(A) = = 0,264
b) B = ch c 2 chi tit t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho B l C .5 =
225.
P (B) = = 0,495
1.10
a) A = C 3 chi tit ly ra thuc loi t tiu chun
P(A) =
=
= 0.2641
b) B= Trong s 3 chi tit ly ra c 2 chi tit t tiu chun
P(B) =
=
= 0.495
1.11
S kt qu ng kh nng: P(6) = 6!
A= Xp c ch NGHNH
Ch N c 2 cch chn
Ch H c 2 cch chn
Ch G, , N mi ch c 1 cch chn
S kt qu ng kh nng xy ra A l: m = 2.2.1.1.1 = 4
P(A) =
=
1.12
a) Mi khch u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do s kt
cc ng kh nng n = 63 =216
A = Tt c cng ra tng 4, m=1
P(A) =
b) B= Tt c cng ra 1 tng
Tt c u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do :
P(B) = 6P(A) =
=
c) C = Mi ngi ra 1 tng khc nhau
P(C) =
=
1.13
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(12) =12!
A = Cc tp c xp th t t phi sang tri hc t tri sang phi nn m = 2
P(A) =
1.14
S kh nng c th xy ra:
a) A= Ly c 3 qun t
m=
=4
P(A) =
=
b) B= Ly c 1 qun t
P(B) =
= 22100
1.15
Chia ngu nhin l hng thnh 2 phn bng nhau tc l ly ngu nhin 5 sn
phm t 10 sn phm . Do s kh nng c th xy ra l: n =
= 252
Mi phn u c s chnh phm nh nhau tc l mi phn c 3 chnh phm, 2
ph phm. Do , m =
= 120
A = Mi phn c s chnh phm nh nhau
P(A) =
=
1.16
Mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr t 0 n 10
S kh nng c th xy ra l: n = 105
a) A= C 5 ch s khc nhau
P(A) =
= 0.3024
b) B= C 5 ch s u l
mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr 1, 3, 5, 7 ,9. Do : m= 55
P(B) =
=0.03125
1.17
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(5) = 120
a) A= C ngi chnh gia
m=1.P(4) = 24
P(A) =
= 0.2
b) B= A v B ngi 2 u gh
P(B) =
= 0.1
1.18
S kh nng c th xy ra:
A= Ly c 1 qu c s hiu nh hn k v 1 qu c s hiu ln hn k
m=
P(A) =
=
1.19
S kt qu ng kh nng l:n= 6n
A = Tng s chm l n+1
S kt qu thun li cho A l m=n
P(A) =
1.20
f= 0,85
n=200
45600
= 0,517
88200
1.24
Theo bng s liu ta c, tng s nhn vin trong cng ty l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420 + 400 + 230 = 1600 ( nhn vin)
Khi ly ngu nhin mt ngi ca cng ty th
a. Xc sut c mt nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420
= 0, 61
1600
1.25
Gi A l bin c 3 bng in c ly ra trong hp c 4 bng hng u
tt
S kt hp ng kh nng xy ra l s t hp chp 3 t 12 phn t. Nh
vy ta c : n = C123 = 220
S kt cc thun li cho A xy ra bng s t hp chp 3 ( bng in tt) t
8( trong 1 hp c 4 bng in b hng). Vy m= C83 = 56
Do xc sut mt hp bng n c chp nhn trong c 4 bng b
hng l :
P ( A) =
56
= 0, 254
220
1.26
Ta c n=8 kt cc kh nng l GGG, GGT, GTG, TTT, TGG, TGT, TTG.
a. Gi A l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi.
C 3 kt qu thun li cho A nn ta c :
P ( A) =
3
8
4 1
=
8 2
P (C ) =
1
4
4
7
1.27
Gi A l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht trng nhau
S kt cc ng kh nng l t hp chp 3 ca 30 nn ta c :
n = C303 = 4060
30
= 0, 008
4060
P ( A) =
28
= 0, 28
100
b. Gi B l bin c sn phm ch b st vi
S sn phm ch b st vi l 4. Nh vy :
P( B) =
4
= 0, 04
100
m = A926
A926
Vy : P(A) = 6 = 0,85
B92
1.30
a. C n ngi xp thnh hang ngang th s c n! cch xp
Gi A l bin c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng ngang.
Nu coi m ngi ng trng tn cnh nhau ny lag 1 ngi th ta c
(n m +1 ) ! cch xp. C m! cch xp cho m ngi trng tn .
Vy xc sut m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng l:
P ( A) =
m !(n m + 1)!
n!
m !(n m)!
(n 1)!
1.23
Gi A l bin c sn phm chn ra l chnh phm.
Gi A1 v A2 l bin c sn phm b mt ln lt l chnh phm v ph phm.
Vy yu cu ca bi ton l tnh xc sut c iu kin P(A1/A).
Ta c A1, A2 l h y v xung khc vi nhau tng i mt.
Ta c:
a
a+b
b
P ( A2) =
a+b
P ( A1) =
P ( A1 / A) =
Vi
a.b
= (a + b)(a + b 1) + (a + b)(a + b 1)
Vy:
P(A1/A)= (a-1)(a+b-1).
l bin c chi tit ly ra l chi tit loi III nhng khng thuc loi I
hoc loi II hay thuc c loi I v loi II
c.
d.
1
1
2
2
A7A8A9A10
5
3
6
5
A7
A9
10
P( A )= 0.6
Vic thc hin cc ln o l c lp
p dng cng thc Bernoulli, xc sut A xut hin ng mt ln trong 3
php th l:
P 3 (1) = C
1
2
1
3 0.4 0.6 = 0.432
Bi 1.41:
Gi A l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu trng.
B l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu .
C l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu xanh.
S cch chn ngu nhin mi hp 1 vin bi l P=
(7 + 3 +15 ).( 10 + 6 + 9) =
625
cch.
Khi xc sut ly ra 2 bi cng mu t 2 hp khc nhau l:
1
1
C 31 .C10
+ C 71 .C 61 + C15
.C 91 207
=
P= P(A)+P(B)+P(C) =
625
625
Vy P =
207
625
Bi 1.42:
a. Gi A l bin c: Ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu P(A) = 0,8
Gi B l bin c: Ngi th hai bn trng mc tiu P(B) = 0,9
Do ch c mt ngi bn trng mc tiu. Suy ra nu A bn trng th B ko bn
trng v ngc li
Vy xc sut mt duy nht 1 ngi bn trng mc tiu l:
P 1 = P(A).P( B ) + P( A ).P(B) = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 = 0,26.
Vy P1 = 0,26
b. Gi P2 l xc sut c ngi bn trng mc tiu.
C ngi bn trng mc tiu khi hoc ngi th nht bn trng, hoc ngi th
2 bn trng, hoc c 2 cng bn trng.
P2 = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 + 0,8.0,9 = 0,98
Vy P2 = 0,98
c. Gi P3 l xc sut c 2 cng bn trt.
C 2 ngi cng bn trt khi khng c ai bn trng.
A=
i =0
Ai
Bi 1.44:
Gi Ai l bin c qu bng th i l qu bng mi.
Sau khi ly k qu bng ra chi v b li hp th trong hp ch cn n-k qu bng
mi.
Ly ln lt tng qu.
Qu th nht c n cch ly nhng ch c n-k cch ly ra qu mi hay cch
khc s kt cc ng kh nng ca bin c A1 l n v s kt cc thun li l
n-k, vy P(A1) =
Ly qu th 2 th s kt cc ng kh nng l n-1 v s kt cc thun li l
n-k-1 nn P(A2) =
Tng t P(A3) =
P(Ak) =
Xc sut k qu bng ly ra chi u l mi bng tch xc sut qu th 1,
th 2, th 3, th k u l qu mi.
Hay:
P = P(A1).P(A2)P(Ak)
= . . .
=
T s bng
Mu s bng
Vy P = [(n-k)!]2 / [n!(n-2k)!]
Bi 1.45:
a) Gi Ai l bin c ln i khng thu c tn hiu th Pi = 0,6.
Bin c ngun khng nhn c thng tin l tch ca 3 bin c c lp A1, A2,
A3.
P(A) = 0,6 . 0,6 .0,6 = 0,216.
Bin c i ca A l ngun thu c thng tin c xc sut l:
Pa = 1 - P(A) = 0,784.
Vy Pa = 0,784.
b) Nu mun xc sut thu c thng tin ln 0,9 th bin c ngun khng thu
c tn hiu phi c xc sut l 0,1.
S ln phi pht l n sao cho 0,6n = 0,1 => n =log
0, 6
0,1 = 4,5.
Vy P= 0,04
2
= 0,022
90
Bi 1.50:
Gi A1 l bin c: ln th th nht khng m c ca kho
A2 l bin c: ln th th hai khng m c ca kho
A3 l bin c: ln th th ba khng m c ca kho
A4 l bin c: ln th th t m c ca kho
A l bin c: m c ca kho ln th 4
Theo u bi, th kho th ngu nhin tng cha mt, chic no c th th
khng th li. Do A1,A2,A3,A4 l bin c ph thuc.
Xt bin c A1, chm cha kha c 9 cha trong ch mt cha m c, 8
cha cn li khng m c. Ln th th nht khng m c. Vy bin c A1
c xc sut: P(A1)= 8/9.
Xt bin c A2, sau khi th ln mt, cn 8 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 7 chic khng m c. Ln th th hai khng m c. Vy bin c
A2 c xc sut: P(A2/A1)=7/8.
Tng t, xt bin c A3, sau khi th ln hai, cn 7 chic cha kha trong 1
chic m c v 6 chic khng m c. Ln th th ba khng m c. Vy
bin c A3 c xc sut: P(A3/A1A2)=6/7.
Xt bin c A4, sau khi th ln ba, cn 6 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 5 chic khng m c. Ln th th t m c. Vy bin c A 4 c
xc sut: P(A4/A1A2A3)=1/6.
Vy xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l
P(A)=P(A1).P(A2/A1).P(A3/A1A2).P(A4/A1A2A3)=8/9.7/8.6/7.1/6=1/9
Kt lun xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l 1/9.
Bi 1.51: bng cch v s ven ra, ta c hnh
15%
24%
10%
Vy xc sut chn ngu nhin 1 khch hng bit thng tin v sn phm ca
cng ty l : P=15%+10%+24%=49%
1.50.
Gi A l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th 4
Gi A l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th i, i =
Vy A = A
Theo nh l nhn xc sut i vi 2 bin c ph thuc ta c:
P(A) = P( A) = P()P( / )P(/ )P(A /
)= . . . =
1.51.
Gi A l bin c khch hng nm c thng tin qua v tuyn truyn hnh, B
l bin c nm c thng tin qua i pht thanh. Gi C l bin c chn ngu
nhin 1 khch hng th ngi nm c thng tin v sn phm ca cng ty)
Theo bi ra ta c: P(A) = 0.25; P(B) = 0.34; P(AB) = 0.1
P(C) = P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.25 + 0.34 - 0.1 = 0.49
1.53.
Gi A l bin c mch khng c in do bng hng. gi A l bin c bng
n th nht hng; A l bin c bng n th 2 hng
a. nu 2 bng n mc ni tip: mch khng c in th phi c t nht 1
bng
hng. khi l bin c khng c bng n no hng
ta c: = . => P() = P( . ) = 0.8 . 0.9 = 0.72
P(A) = 1 - P () = 0.28
b. nu 2 bng n mc song song: mch khng c in th c 2 bng n
u
hng. khi ta c: A = A A
P(A) = P(A A) = 0.1 . 0.2 = 0.02
1.54.
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm t l i th l bin c ly c ph
phm t l i, i = 1,2
a.gi A l bin c ly c 1 chnh phm
theo bi ra ta c P(A) = ; P(A) = ; P() = ; P() =
vy P(A) = P(A) P() + P() P(A) = . + . = 0.26
c. gi B l bin c ly c t nht mt chnh phm th l bin c khng
ly c chnh phm no
P() = P()P() = . = 0.02
Vy P(B) = 1 - P() = 0.98
1.55.
Gi A l bin c ln th i ly ra 3 sn phm mi kim tra. (i = ). Gi A l
bin c sau 3 ln kim tra tt c cc sn phm u c kim tra. A = A A A
V cc bin c l ph thuc nn:
P(A) = P( A )P(A /A )P(A /A A ) = 1 . . =
1.56.
Gi A l bin c vin n th i trng ch, i =
Gi A l bin c bn n vin n c th hi vng rng khng c vin no
trt
Ta c: P(A) = P(A) = = P(A) = 0.8
P(A) = P(A)P(A)P(A) = 0.8
Ta c P(
Ta c
1,4
10
HH H H
1
.
.
4 )= C 4 0,05
4
(10,05 )
= 6, 25.
C
C
2
1
=1/5
10
P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
=5/9
Tng t P(H2/A)=4/9
Gi B l bin c Sn phm ly ra ln th 2 l chnh phm
B vn c th xy ra vi mt trong 2 bin c H1, H2. Do theo cng thc
xc sut y
P(B)=P(H1/A)P(B/H1A)+P(H2/A)P(B/H2A)=4/45
Bi 1. 65:
Gi A l bin c my bay ri.
Hi l bin c bn trng i pht (i= 1,3 )
Gi l bin c bn trng pht th i(i= 1,3 )
Ta c H1=G1. G 2 . G 3 + G1 . G2. G 3 + G1 . G 2 . G3 nn P(H1)=0, 33
Tng t, P(H2)=0, 41; P(H3)=0, 14
A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y nn
theo cng thc xc sut y ta c :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)=0, 36. 0, 2+0, 41.
0, 6+0, 14. 1=0, 458
Bi 1. 66
Gi A l bin c ly ra c t nht 1 chnh phm th A l bin c ly c
ton ph phm.
Gi H1 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra u thuc l 1
H2 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra thuc l 2
H3 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm th 1 sp thuc l 1, 1 sp thuc l 2.
C
Ta c P(H1)=
C
2
2
2
5
C
=1/10, P(H2)=
C
2
3
2
5
C .C
=3/10, P(H3)=
C
2
1
3
=3/5
C
Ta c P( A /H1)=
C
C
=3/45, P( A /H2)=
C
3
2
2
2
10
=1/45, P( A /H3)= C . C
10
10
10
=0, 6
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c
P( A )=P(H1). P( A /H1)+P(H2). P( A /H2+P(H3). P( A /H3)= 37/750
Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=1-37/750 0, 951
Bi 1. 67:
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm.
H1 l bin c thnh phn ca l th nht khng thay i
H2 l bin c l th nht mt ph phm c thay th bng mt chnh
phm.
H3 l bin c l th nht mt chnh phm c thay th bng mt ph
phm.
Ta c :
Vi H1, do thnh phn ca l 1 khng i tc l t l th nht b sang l th
2 l sn phm nh th no th sn phm b tr li s nh th.
1
Do P(H1)=
C a . C c +1 + C b . C d +1
C
.
a + b C c + d +1
P(H2)=
C b .C c
1
a +b
c +d +1
C .C
P(H3)=
C a .C d
1
a +b
.C c + d +1
a
a +1
a 1
(a +b)
(c + d +1)
Bi 1. 68:
a. Gi A l bin c tm c mt ngi vim hng
H1 l bin c tm c ngi nghin thuc
H2 l bin c tm c ngi khng nghin thuc
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 l 1 nhm bin c y
nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 3. 0, 6+0, 7. 0, 4=0, 46
Khi theo cng thc Bayes:
P(H1/A)=
P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( A)
=0, 3913
P ( H 1). P ( B / H 1)
P( B)
=0, 222
Bi 1. 69
Gi A l bin c c 2 b phn hng
H1 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 2 b hng
H2 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 3 b hng
H3 l bin c ch c b phn 2 v 3 b hng
Gi (i= 1,3 ) l bin c b phn th i b hng
Ta c H1=G1. G2. G 3 nn P(H1)=0, 056
Tng t P(H2)=0, 036; P(H3)=0, 096
Ta c A=H1+H2+H3 m 3 bin c ny xung khc tng i mt nn
P(A)=P(H1)+P(H2)+P(H3)=0, 188
Vy xc sut 2 b phn hng l 1 v 2 l
P ( H 1)
P ( A)
=0, 298
Bi 1. 70
Gi G l bin c tm c bnh nhn l k s
H1 l bin c bnh nhn tnh A.
H2 l bin c bnh nhn tnh B
H3 l bin c bnh nhn tnh C
Ta c G xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y .
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(G)= P(H1). P(G/H1)+P(H2). P(G/H2)+P(H3). P(G/H3)
=0, 25. 0, 02+0, 35. 0, 03+0, 4. 0, 035=0, 0295
1.71,
A= ch cu c mt con c trong 3 ln cu
Hi= ngi ny ngi ch th i, i = 1,2,3
A c th xy ra ng thi vi 1 trong 3 bin c v to nn mt nhm cc
bin c y . Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =
P ( H1 ).P ( A / H1 )
3
P( H ).P( A / H )
i =1
Trong :
P(H1) = P(H2) = P(H3) = 1/3
P(A/H1) = 0,6.0,42 = 0,096
P(A/H2) = 0,7.0,32 = 0,063
P(A/H3) = 0,8.0,22 = 0,032
Do , ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =
0,096
96
=
0,5026
0,096 + 0,063 + 0,032
191
p n: 0,5026
1.72,
Xc sut ca bin c A l 0,7. iu c ngha l t s gia kt cc thun
li cho A v tng s cc kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi thc
hin php th l 0,7
1.73,
A = c mt hp no c 1 ph phm
Gi s 3 hp ny phn bit vi nhau
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp 30 sn phm vo
10
10
.C10
3 chic hp sao cho mi hp c 10 sn phm l: C3010 .C 20
Xt bin c A = c 3 ph phm u nm trong mt hp
+ Nu c 3 ph phm u nm trong hp 1.
10
10
.C10
S kt cc thun li l C 277 .C 20
+ Vi trng hp c 3 ph phm cng nm trong hp 2, hoc 3 u
chung mt kt qu nh trn
10
10
.C10
Vy, s kt cc thun li cho bin c A l: 3.C277 .C20
Do ,
P( A ) =
7
3.C 27
10
C 30
Suy ra,
P( A) = 1 P ( A ) = 1
7
3.C 27
0,91133
10
C 30
1.74,
a, A= Mi ngi khch x ng i giy ca mnh
S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!)2
(Do c N i giy, v s cch i N i giy y cho chn tri hay chn phi
ca N ngi l N!)
S kt cc thun li l: 1
Do :
P ( A) =
1
( N !) 2
N!
1
=
2
( N !)
N!
1.75,
A= Sn phm sn xut ra l chnh phm
B= Sn phm sn xut ra l ph phm
H1= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l chnh phm
H2= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l ph phm
Ta c:
P(A) = 0,95
P(B) = 0,05
P(H1/A) = 0,04
P(H2/B) = 0,01
a, X = Sn phm c kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc ra l ph
phm
Ta c: X = BH1
P(X) = P(B). P(H1/B) = 0,05.0,01 = 0,0005
Vy: T l sn phm b kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc t l ph phm
l 0,05%
b, Y= Sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm
Ta c: Y =AH2
P(Y) = P(A).P(H2/A) = 0,95.0,04 = 0,038
Vy: T l sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm l 3,8%
c, T l sn phm b thit b kim tra kt lun nhm l: 3,85%
1.76,
a, A= Ly c nam sinh vin
P ( A) =
400 + 800
= 0,6
2000
400 + 500
= 0,45
2000
400
= 0,85
400 + 800
400
= 0,2
400 + 800
1.77,
400
1
=
400 + 800 3
60
= 0.6
100
b, X= Sn phm ly ra l ph phm
H1 = Sn phm ca x nghip A
H2 = Sn phm ca x nghip B
Ta c:
P( H 1 / X ) =
P ( X / H 1 ). P( H 1 )
P( X / H 1 ). P ( H 1 ) + P ( X / H 2 ). P ( H 2 )
Trong :
P(H1) = 0,6; P(H2) = 0,4
P(X/H1) = 0,3; P(X/H2) = 0,1
Do :
P( H 1 / X ) =
0,6.0,3
9
=
0,81
0,6.0,3 + 0,4.0,1 11
c, Y = C 2 sn phm u ra ph phm
P( H 1 / Y ) =
P (Y / H 1 ). P ( H 1 )
P (Y / H 1 ).P ( H 1 ) + P (Y / H 2 ).P ( H 2 )
Do :
P( H 1 / Y ) =
C 32N
C 32N + C N2
1.78,
X= v thng xem chng trnh th thao
Y= chng thng xem chng trnh th thao
P(X) = 0,3; P(Y) = 0,5; P(Y/X) = 0,6
a,
A = C hai cng xem chng trnh th thao
A = XY
P(A) = P(X).P(Y/X) = 0,3.0,6 = 0,18
b,
B = C t nht mt ngi thng xem
B=X+Y
P(B) = P(X+Y) = P(X) + P(Y) P(XY) = 0,3 + 0,5 0,18 = 0,62
c,
C = Khng c ai thng xem
P(C) = 1-P(B) = 0,38
d,
D = Nu chng xem th v xem cng
P ( D) = P( X / Y ) =
P(Y / X ). P ( X ) 0,6.0,3
=
= 0,36
P (Y )
0,5
e,
E = Nu chng khng xem th v vn xem
P( E ) = P( X / Y ) =
1.79,
Hi = Bn c hng ln th i
Ta c:
P(H1) = 0,8
P(H2/H1) = 0,9; P(H3/H2) = 0,9
P ( H 2 / H 1 ) = 0,4; P ( H 3/ H 2 ) = 0,4
a, A= C 3 ln u bn c hng
P(A) = P(H1.H2.H3) = P(H1).P(H2/ H1).P(H3/ H2. H1) =
= 0,8.0,9.0,9 = 0,648
b, B = C ng 2 ln bn c hng
P( B) = P( H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 )
= P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3
= 0,2.0,4.0,9 + 0,8.0,1.0,4 + 0,8.0,9.0,1 = 0,176
1.80,
E1 = Cp sinh i ng trng
E2 = Cp sinh i khc trng
P(E1) = P; P(E2) = 1- P
A = Cp sinh i c cng gii tnh
P ( E1 / A) =
P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 )
1 .P
2P
=
=
1
P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 ) + P ( A / E2 ).P ( E2 ) 1.P + .(1 P ) P + 1 Vy:
2
1.81.
3
= C9 C6 C3
a.
Gi A = Mt phn gm 3 cu
P( A) =
1
3
CCC
1
1680
b.
Gi B = Mi phn c 1 cu
Nh vy 2 cu cn li mi phn l cu xanh
1
P( B) =
C3C6 + C3 C 4 + C3C 2
3
CCC
1.82.
58
1680
a.
A= H thng phun nc b hng P( A) = 0,1
B= H thng bo ng b hng P( B) = 0,2
C= C t nht 1 h thng hot ng bnh thng
C = AB
P (C ) = P ( AB ) = 0,04
P (C ) =1 P (C ) = 0,96
b.
D= C 2 h thng hot ng bnh thng
D = A + B , A,B khng xung khc P ( D ) = P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P( AB ) = 0,26
P( D ) = 1 0,26 = 0,74
1.83.
H= Chai ru ly ra thuc loi A
A= 3 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi A
B= 1 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi B
3
P( B / H ) = C 4 .0,2.0,8 3 = 0,4096
3
P ( B / H ) = C 4 .0,8.0,2 3 = 0.0256
1
(0,4096) 2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H )
2
P ( H / AB) =
=
= 0,996
1
1
2
2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H ) + P ( H )P ( AB / H )
(0,4096) + (0,0256)
2
2
1.84.
a.
A= 2 mu hng cng loi
A1= 2 mu hng loi A
A2= 2 mu hng loi B
6 3
= 0,18
10 10
4 7
P ( A2 ) =
= 0,28
10 10
A = A1 + A2 , A1 , A2
P ( A1 ) =
1.
2.
b.
H1= Mu ly ra hp 1
H2= Mu ly ra hp 2
B= Mu ly ra thuc loi B
P(H1)=0,45
P(H2)=0,55
P(B)=P(H1)P(B/H1)+P(H2)P(B/H2)=0,45.0,4+0,55.0,7=0,565
C= Mu ly ra thuc loi A
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,45 .0,6
=
= 0,62
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,435
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,55 .03
P ( H 2 / A) =
=
= 0,38
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2) + P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,435
P ( H 1 / A) =
P ( H 3) P ( A / H 3) 0,02 1
=
=
P ( A)
0,06 3
1.91
Gi A l bin c ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc ban u hp c i sn phm tt i = 0, n
P ( Hi ) =
i
n
P ( A \ Hi ) =
i +1
n +1
P ( A) = P ( Hi ) P ( A \ Hi )
i=0
n+2
Ta c P( A) = 2(n + 1)
n+2
p s: 2(n + 1)
1.92
Gi A l bin c k sn phm ly ra u l chnh phm.
Hi ln lt l bin c trong hp c i chnh phm, vi i=1,2,6.
Theo cng thc Bayes th:
P(Hi/A) =
V ta ly ngu nhin ln lt k sn phm theo phng thc c hon li nn tng
s kt cc ng kh nng xy ra ng bng s chnh hp lp chp k ca n, tc l
bng nk.
Mt khc, nu hp cha i chnh phm, th c C cch xy ra ( c C cch chn
i sn phm trong n sn phm), vi mi cch nh th, s cch ly c k
chnh phm trong s i chnh phm theo phng thc c hon li l ik.
Vy P(Hi).P(A/Hi) =
P(Hn/A) = =1.
P(A) = P(H1).P(A/H1) + P(H2).P(A/H2) ++P(Hn).P(A/Hn)
= +
+.+
=( n + 2k +
3k ++ nk) / nk
Vy, P(Hn/A) =
1.93
Gi T l bin c A thng trung cuc trong 2 vn d hn thng trung
cuc trong 4 vn
* Gi C l bin c A thng B chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(C ) = 1 P(C )
P (C ) l xc sut xy ra bin c A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn
Gi D l bin c A thua B mt vn
P( D) = 1 P
Mun A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn th A phi thua c 2 vn nn
P (C ) = (1 P )
P(T ) 3
p s P(T )
2
3
1.94
Gi A l bin c sn phm th nht l ph phm
B l bin c sn phm th 2 l ph phm.
Vy bin c trong 2 sn phm mua c 1 sn phm ph phm l bin c tng
A. + .B
y l 2 nhm bin c xung khc nn xc sut tng bng tng cc xc sut
Gi H1, H2 l bin c sn phm mua thuc day chuyn s 1, s 2.
Ta tnh P(A. )trc.
P (H1) = P(H2) = 0,5
P(A) = 0,5.0,2 +0,5.0,03 = 0,025
Sau khi A xy ra th cc xc sut ca H1, H2 thay i theo cng thc Bayes
nh sau:
P(H1/A) = =
P(H2/A) = =
P( /A ) = .0,98 + .0,97 = 0,974
Vy P(A, ) = 0,025.0,0974 = 0,02435.
Tnh P( , B)
1.95
a) s ln nm trng ca ngi th nht cao hn ngi th 2 th cc t s c th
xy ra l 2-0, 1-0, 2-1.,
Cc bin c trn xung khc tng i.
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-0 l: 0,6.0,6.0,3.0,3 =0,0324
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-1 l: 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,3 .2 =0,1512
Xc sut xy ra t s 1-0 l: 0,6.0,4.0,3.0,3 .2 =0,0432
Vy Pa = 0,0324 + 0,1512 + 0,0432 = 0,2268
b) s ln nm trng ca 2 ngi l bng nhau th c th xy ra c t s sau: 00, 1-1, 2-2
tng t ta c
Pb = 0,4.0,4.0,3.0,3 +2.0,4.0,6.2,0,3.0,7 + 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,7 = 0,3924
1.96
gi s ln rt th i ngi 1 rt c qu trng.
ln 1:
P= a/(a+b)
ln 2:
ln 3:
P= [ b/(a+b)^4 . a/(a+b)
+ [ b/(a+b)] ^4 .
[b /(a+b)]^4...........}
[b/(a+b)]^2 = X
ta c ( [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2
[b /(a+b)]^4...........} )
n m
=1-1/1!+1/2!-1/3!+.+(-1)^(m-n)/m(m-n)!=
Vay xac suat cua bai toan la`:
P(A).P(B)= 1/m!.
(1) ^ k
k!
k =0
nm
1.98: sgk
1.99
hai nguoi nay choi toi da la m+n-1 van thi moi biet duoc minh thang hay thua.
Xet cac truong hop thang cho nguoi thu nhat:
Ta phan thanh cac truong hop nguoi do phai danh lan luot la :
m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1 tran moi biet minh thang( so thu tu cau van thang cuoi
cung lan luot la m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1). Cac truong hop nay lan luot xung
khac.
Ap dung becnuli
P(m)=(1/2)^m
m 1
1
P(m+1)= c m .(1/2)^(m-1).1/2.1/2=1/2. c m .(1/2)^m
2
.
m 1
n
P(m+n-1)= c m+ n 2 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^(n-1).1/2=(1/2)^n. c m+ n 2 .(1/2)^(n-1)
Nen xac suat nguoi thu nhat:
P(1)= (1/2)^m(1+1/2.
Bi 1.91)
Gi A = ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc u hp c I sng phm tt ( i =
P(H0) = P(H1) = = P(Hn) =
0, n
1
n +1
C11
1
P(A/H0) = 1 =
n +1
C n +1
C21
2
P(A/H1) = 1 = n +1
Cn +1
P(A/Hn) =
Cn1 +1
n +1
= n +1
1
Cn +1
= n +1 . n +1 +
=
=
+ +
1 n +1
.
n + 1 n +1
1.93
TH1) H1 = A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(H1) = C 12 . p(1-p) + C 22 .p2 = 2p(1-p) + p2
(p-1)2(p- 3 ) < 0
p 23 <0
p 1
2
> p>0
3
2
> p>0
3
1.94)
Gi H1 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 1
H2 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 2
A = khch hang mua phi 1 ph phm
B = khch hang mua c 1 chnh phm
P(A/H1) = 0,02 ; P(A/H2) = 0,03
P(B/H1) = 0,98 ; P(B/H2) = 0,97
P(AB) = P(A/H1). P(B/H1) + P(A/H1). P(B/H2) + P(A/H2). P(B/H1) + P(A/H2).
P(B/H2)
= 0,02.0,98 + 0,02.0,97 + 0,03.0,97 + 0,03.0,98
= 0,0975
Khi ch n th x c su t ch n c m t trong 2 day chuyen la nen ket qua cu
i c ng c a b i to n l 0.024375
???????
1.94
Mua c 2 DC1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 98%
Mua c 2 DC2 ko l ph phm x 97% x 97%
Mua 1 DC 2 1 DC 1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 97%
Ly 1- i hy vng ng =))
m
n
C
Vy P(A) =
A
n
m
1
m!
1
n m
n m
v C=
i =1
(A)
i
C n-m ch nn
i< j
P( A ) =(n-m). n 1 m =1
i
P(AiAj)= P(Ai)P(Aj/Ai)= n m n m 1
P( A A ) = C
i< j
2
n m
1
1
1
.
=
n m n m 1 2!
1
P(B)=1-P(C) = 1-
n m
(1)
i =1
(1)
h!
n m
1
.
=
( n m)!
n m
h =0
1
m!
(1)
h!
n m
h =0