Chng I: BIN C

V XC SUT CA BIN C
1.1.
a) Gi A l bin c xut hin mt su chm khi gieo con xc xc.
S kt cc ng kh nng n = 6. S kt cc thun li cho bin c A l m =1.
Vy:
P(A)= =
b) Gi B l bin c mt c s chn chm xut hin.
S kt cc thun li cho B l n = 3. Vy:
P(B) = = = 0.5
1.2
a) Gi A l bin c ly ra tm ba c xut hin ch s 5. khi l bin c
khng xut hin ch s 5. V s kt cc ng kh nng l 100, trong khi s kt
cc thun li cho A l 19, nn s kt cc thun li cho l 81.
Vy
P ( ) = 0.81.
b) t 1 n 100 c 50 s chn nn c 50 s chia ht cho 2.
C 20 s chia ht cho 5, trong 10 s va chia ht cho 5 va chia ht cho 2.
Do vy s kt cc thun li cho bin c ly ln ba c s hoc chia ht cho 2,
hoc chia ht cho 5, hoc chia ht cho c 2 v 5 l 50 +20-10 = 60.
Vy P(A)= =0.6.

1.3
a) A = qu cu th nht l trng
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng l tt c cc phng php ly c 1 qu
cu ra khi (a+b) qu cu. Vy n = a+b.
S kt cc thun li ly ra qu cu th nht mu trng l a.

Vy xc sut P(A) =
b) Nu qu th nht trng th chn qu th 2 s cn a+b-1 kt cc ng kh
nng.
S kt cc thun li qu th 2 mu trng l a-1
Vy xc sut P(B) =
c) tng t cu b), v qu th hai l trng nn s kt cc ng kh nng khi chn
qu th nht l a+b-1 trong khi s kt qu thun li l a-1.
Vy P(C) =
1.4.
a) S kt qu ng kh nng thc ra hon v ca a + b qu cu nn m = (a+b)!
nu qu cu th 2 l trng th s kt qu thun li cho bin c ny l chnh hp
chp a+b-1 phn t ca a+b phn t.
Vy xc sut P(A) = .
b) gi B l bin c qu cu cui cng l trng. Khi tng t cu a), ta cng c
xc sut P(B) =

1.5.
1
2
Sp (S)
Nga (N)

Sp (S)
SS
NS

Nga (N)
SN
NN

a) Da vo bng trn, c th thy s kt cc ng kh nng l 4.

S kt cc thun li cho bin c A = Hai mt cng sp xut hin l 1.
Vy P (A) = = 0,25
b) S kt cc thun li cho bin c B = Mt sp mt nga l 2.
Vy xc sut P(B) = = 0,5.
c) S kt cc thun li cho bin c C = C t nht 1 mt sp l 3.
Vy P(C) = 0,75.
1.6.
Gieo ng thi 2 con xc xc th s kt cc ng kh nng l 6.6=36.
a) c 6 kt cc thun li cho bin c A=hai mt c tng s chm bng 7 l
cc cp 1&6, 2&5, 3&4, 4&3, 5&2, 6&1 nn P(A) = =
b) B = hai mt c tng s chm nh hn 8.
Bi =hai mt c s chm nhi hn i, vi i=2,3,7 (nh nht l 2)
B2 c 1 kt cc thun li
B3 c 2 kt cc thun li
B4 c 3 kt cc thun li
B5 c 4 kt cc thun li
B6 c 5 kt cc thun li
B7 c 6 kt cc thun li
Vy s kt cc thun li ca bin c B l 21.
Nn P(B) = =
c) D = hai mt c t nht 1 mt 6 chm
khi s kt cc thun li cho D l 11.
Vy P(D) = .
1.7.

S cch tr m c th xy ra l A =6.
d) c 3 ngi cng c tr ng m th ch c 1 kt cc thun li nn
P(D)=
c) Khng th c kh nng ch c ng 2 ngi c tr ng m, v chc chn
ngi th 3 cng s ng m, nn P( C) = 0
b) s kt cc thun li c ng 1 ngi c tr ng m l 3
Vy P(B) = = 0,5.
a) xc sut c 3 ngi b tr sai m l:
P(A) = 1 - - 0,5 =
1.8.
Ta c biu tp hp nh sau:

a) S hc sinh hc t nht 1 ngoi ng trn l 50% + 10% + 15% + 5% = 80%.

Vy xc sut ca bin c ny l P(A) = 0,8.
b) S hc sinh ch hc ting Anh v ting c l 10%.
Vy P(B) = 0,1.
c) S hc sinh ch hc ting Php l 15%
Vy xc sut l P( C) = 0,15.
1.9.
S kt cc ng kh nng l chnh hp chp 3 ca 10 s t nhin, nn m = A =
720.

Ch c 1 kt cc thun li cho vic gi in ng s in thoi, vy xc sut

P=

1.10.
S kt cc ng kh nng khi thc hin php th ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm l
t hp chp 3 ca 15 phn t, vy n = C = 455
a) A = 3 chi tit ly ra t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho A l
C =120
P(A) = = 0,264
b) B = ch c 2 chi tit t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho B l C .5 =
225.
P (B) = = 0,495

1.10
a) A = C 3 chi tit ly ra thuc loi t tiu chun
P(A) =
=
= 0.2641
b) B= Trong s 3 chi tit ly ra c 2 chi tit t tiu chun
P(B) =
=
= 0.495
1.11
S kt qu ng kh nng: P(6) = 6!
A= Xp c ch NGHNH
Ch N c 2 cch chn
Ch H c 2 cch chn
Ch G, , N mi ch c 1 cch chn
S kt qu ng kh nng xy ra A l: m = 2.2.1.1.1 = 4
P(A) =
=
1.12
a) Mi khch u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do s kt
cc ng kh nng n = 63 =216
A = Tt c cng ra tng 4, m=1
P(A) =
b) B= Tt c cng ra 1 tng
Tt c u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do :
P(B) = 6P(A) =
=
c) C = Mi ngi ra 1 tng khc nhau
P(C) =
=
1.13
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(12) =12!
A = Cc tp c xp th t t phi sang tri hc t tri sang phi nn m = 2
P(A) =
1.14
S kh nng c th xy ra:
a) A= Ly c 3 qun t
m=
=4
P(A) =
=
b) B= Ly c 1 qun t
P(B) =

= 22100

1.15
Chia ngu nhin l hng thnh 2 phn bng nhau tc l ly ngu nhin 5 sn
phm t 10 sn phm . Do s kh nng c th xy ra l: n =
= 252
Mi phn u c s chnh phm nh nhau tc l mi phn c 3 chnh phm, 2
ph phm. Do , m =
= 120
A = Mi phn c s chnh phm nh nhau
P(A) =
=
1.16
Mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr t 0 n 10
S kh nng c th xy ra l: n = 105
a) A= C 5 ch s khc nhau
P(A) =
= 0.3024
b) B= C 5 ch s u l
mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr 1, 3, 5, 7 ,9. Do : m= 55
P(B) =
=0.03125
1.17
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(5) = 120
a) A= C ngi chnh gia
m=1.P(4) = 24
P(A) =
= 0.2
b) B= A v B ngi 2 u gh
P(B) =
= 0.1
1.18
S kh nng c th xy ra:
A= Ly c 1 qu c s hiu nh hn k v 1 qu c s hiu ln hn k
m=
P(A) =
=
1.19
S kt qu ng kh nng l:n= 6n
A = Tng s chm l n+1
S kt qu thun li cho A l m=n
P(A) =
1.20
f= 0,85
n=200

 k = f.n = 0,85 . 200 =170

1.21
Gi A l bin c Sinh c con trai.
Theo bi ra ta c, xc sut sinh c con trai l :
P ( A) =

45600
= 0,517
88200

1.24
Theo bng s liu ta c, tng s nhn vin trong cng ty l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420 + 400 + 230 = 1600 ( nhn vin)
Khi ly ngu nhin mt ngi ca cng ty th
a. Xc sut c mt nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420
= 0, 61
1600

b. Xc sut c mt nam nhn vin trn 40 l :

400
= 0, 25
1600

c. Xc sut c mt n nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :

170 + 420
= 0,37
1600

1.25
Gi A l bin c 3 bng in c ly ra trong hp c 4 bng hng u
tt
S kt hp ng kh nng xy ra l s t hp chp 3 t 12 phn t. Nh
vy ta c : n = C123 = 220
S kt cc thun li cho A xy ra bng s t hp chp 3 ( bng in tt) t
8( trong 1 hp c 4 bng in b hng). Vy m= C83 = 56
Do xc sut mt hp bng n c chp nhn trong c 4 bng b
hng l :
P ( A) =

56
= 0, 254
220

1.26
Ta c n=8 kt cc kh nng l GGG, GGT, GTG, TTT, TGG, TGT, TTG.
a. Gi A l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi.
C 3 kt qu thun li cho A nn ta c :
P ( A) =

3
8

b. Gi B l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 con gi .

S kt qu thun li cho B l 4 nn ta c :
P( B) =

4 1
=
8 2

c. Gi C l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi bit rng a u lng l con

gi.
S kt qu thun li cho C l 2 nn ta c :

P (C ) =

1
4

d. Gi D l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 a con gi bit rng gia nh

c t nht 1 a con gi.
Nu gia nh c t nht 1 a con gi th s kt cc ng kh nng l 7.
S kt cc thun li cho D l 4 nn ta c :
P( D) =

4
7

1.27
Gi A l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht trng nhau
S kt cc ng kh nng l t hp chp 3 ca 30 nn ta c :
n = C303 = 4060

S kt cc c li cho bin c A l 30( v 1 thng c 30 ngy) nn ta c

P ( A) =

30
= 0, 008
4060

Gi B l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht khc nhau

Do A v B l 2 bin c i nhau nn ta c P(B) = 1 P(A) = 0.992
1.28
Phn tch t d liu bi ta c :
7 sn phm ch b v np
4 sn phm ch b v vi
1 sn phm ch b m ming
5 sn phm va b m ming va b v np
3 sn phm va b st vi va m ming
7 sn phm va b st vi va b v np
1 sn phm c tt c cc khuyt im trn
a. Gi A l bin c sn phm c khuyt tt
S sn phm b khuyt tt l : 7+4+1+5+3+7+1=28
Vy :

P ( A) =

28
= 0, 28
100

b. Gi B l bin c sn phm ch b st vi
S sn phm ch b st vi l 4. Nh vy :
P( B) =

4
= 0, 04
100

c. Gi C l bin c sn phm b st vi bit rng n v np

Gi D l bin c sn phm va b st vi va b v np
Gi E l bin c sn phm b c 3 khuyt tt
Nh vy C=D+E. Do D v E c lp vi nhau nn ta c :
P(C)= P(D) + P( E)
Vi P(D)=0,07 v P(E)= 0,01 nn ta c P(C)= 0,08
1.29
Gi A l bin c Khng c ngy no c qu 1 v tai nn lao ng
S kt cc ng kh nng l s chnh hp lp chp 6 t 92 phn t
n = B926

S kt cc thun li l s chnh hp chp 6 t 92 phn t

m = A926
A926
Vy : P(A) = 6 = 0,85
B92

1.30
a. C n ngi xp thnh hang ngang th s c n! cch xp
Gi A l bin c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng ngang.
Nu coi m ngi ng trng tn cnh nhau ny lag 1 ngi th ta c
(n m +1 ) ! cch xp. C m! cch xp cho m ngi trng tn .
Vy xc sut m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng l:
P ( A) =

m !(n m + 1)!
n!

b. C n ngi xp thnh vng trn s c ( n-1) cch xp.

Gi B l bin c c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp thnh vng
trn.
Nu coi m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau ny l 1 ngi th khi xp n ngi
thnh vng trn ta c (n-m)! cch xp.
S kt qu thun li cho B l m!(n-m)!
Vy ta c :
P ( B) =

m !(n m)!
(n 1)!

1.23
Gi A l bin c sn phm chn ra l chnh phm.
Gi A1 v A2 l bin c sn phm b mt ln lt l chnh phm v ph phm.
Vy yu cu ca bi ton l tnh xc sut c iu kin P(A1/A).
Ta c A1, A2 l h y v xung khc vi nhau tng i mt.
Ta c:
a
a+b
b
P ( A2) =
a+b
P ( A1) =

Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

[P ( A1).P ( A / A1)]
P( A)
a 1
P ( A / A1) =
a + b 1
a
P ( A / A2) =
a + b 1

P ( A1 / A) =

Vi

P(A)= P(A1).P(A/A1) + P(A2).P(A/A2)

a (a 1)

a.b

= (a + b)(a + b 1) + (a + b)(a + b 1)
Vy:
P(A1/A)= (a-1)(a+b-1).

1.32. Bi Quang Dng

Xc sut s ngi n mi quy l nh nhau v bng 1/3
Gi A l bin c c 3 ngi n quy 1
Lc Becnulli: n=10, k=3
Vy
1.33. Bi Quang Dng
Gi A l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi I
B l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi II
C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III
Ta c :
a. A+B l bin c chi tit ly ra khng thuc loi III
b. AB+C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III hoc l va thuc loi I, va
thuc loi II hoc va l loi I, loi II v loi III
c.

l bin c chi tit ly ra l chi tit loi III nhng khng thuc loi I
hoc loi II hay thuc c loi I v loi II

d. AC l bin c chi tit ly ra va thuc loi I va thuc loi III

1.34. Bi Quang Dng
Gi A l bin c ngi th k bn trng bia (k=1,2,3)
Ta c:
a.
l bin c ch c ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu
b.

l bin c ch c mt ngi bn trng

mc tiu

c.

l bin c ch c 2 ngi bn trng

mc tiu

d.

l bin c c ngi bn trng mc tiu

1.35. Nguyn Bnh Dng

a) A=A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10
b) A=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10
c) A=
d) A=

1
1

2
2

A7A8A9A10

5
3

6
5

A7

A9

10

1.36. Bi Quang Dng

Gi A l bin c Sinh con gi
B l bin c sinh con c trng lng hn 3kg
Ta c: A+B = sinh con gi hoc con nng hn 3kg
A.B = Sinh con gi nng hn 3kg
Bi tp 1.37. Trn Th Thanh Hi
A l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th nht
B l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th hai
Tng A+B l bin c: cng ty thng thu t nht mt trong hai d n
Tch A.B l bin c: cng ty thng thu ng thi c hai d n
1.38. Bi Quang Dng
Gi A1 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I
A2 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi II
A l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I hoc loi II th
V A1, A2 xung khc nn
Bi 1.38. Khiu Duy Hi
Gi A l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi 1
Gi B l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi 2
Gi C l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi 1 hoc loi 2. Ta c: C=A+B
V A v B l 2 bin c xung khc ln ta c:
P(C)=P(A+B)=P(A)+P(B)=0.4+0.5=0.9
Bi 1.39. Khiu Duy Hi
Gi A1,A2,A3 ln lt l bin c m sn phm ca nh my i qua phng kim
tra s 1,2,3 l ph phm
A l bin c sn phm nhp kho l ph phm
Ta c: P(A1)=1-0.8=0.2
P(A2)=0.1
P(A3)=0.01
V 3 phng kim tra hot ng c lp ln A1, A2, A3 l cc bin c c lp
Ta c
P(A)=P(A1.A2.A3)=P(A1).P(A2).P(A3)=0.1x0.2x0.01=0.0002
1.40. Trn Thanh Hng
Xc sut khi o mt i lng vt l phm sai s vt qu tiu chun cho
php l 0.4. Thc hin 3 ln o c lp. Tm xc sut sao cho c ng mt ln
o sai s vt qu tiu chun cho php.
Gii:
Gi A l bin c php o i lng vt l vt qu tiu chun cho php.
P(A) = 0,4

P( A )= 0.6
Vic thc hin cc ln o l c lp
p dng cng thc Bernoulli, xc sut A xut hin ng mt ln trong 3
php th l:

P 3 (1) = C

1
2
1
3 0.4 0.6 = 0.432

Bi 1.41:
Gi A l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu trng.
B l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu .
C l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu xanh.
S cch chn ngu nhin mi hp 1 vin bi l P=

(7 + 3 +15 ).( 10 + 6 + 9) =

625

cch.
Khi xc sut ly ra 2 bi cng mu t 2 hp khc nhau l:
1
1
C 31 .C10
+ C 71 .C 61 + C15
.C 91 207
=
P= P(A)+P(B)+P(C) =
625
625

Vy P =

207
625

Bi 1.42:
a. Gi A l bin c: Ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu P(A) = 0,8
Gi B l bin c: Ngi th hai bn trng mc tiu P(B) = 0,9
Do ch c mt ngi bn trng mc tiu. Suy ra nu A bn trng th B ko bn
trng v ngc li
Vy xc sut mt duy nht 1 ngi bn trng mc tiu l:
P 1 = P(A).P( B ) + P( A ).P(B) = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 = 0,26.
Vy P1 = 0,26
b. Gi P2 l xc sut c ngi bn trng mc tiu.
C ngi bn trng mc tiu khi hoc ngi th nht bn trng, hoc ngi th
2 bn trng, hoc c 2 cng bn trng.
P2 = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 + 0,8.0,9 = 0,98

Vy P2 = 0,98
c. Gi P3 l xc sut c 2 cng bn trt.
C 2 ngi cng bn trt khi khng c ai bn trng.

Suy ra P3= 1 P2 =1 - 0,98 = 0,02.

Vy P3=0,02
Bi 1.43:
Gi A l bin c "sau khi gia cng xong chi tit c khuyt tt "
Ai la bin c "gy ra khuyt tt cng on th i"
P(Ai)=Pi suy ra P( A ) =1 Pi (i=1,2,k)
i

A=

i =0

Ai

P(A) = 1 - P( A )= 1 - ( 1-Pi )k.

i

Bi 1.44:
Gi Ai l bin c qu bng th i l qu bng mi.
Sau khi ly k qu bng ra chi v b li hp th trong hp ch cn n-k qu bng
mi.
Ly ln lt tng qu.
Qu th nht c n cch ly nhng ch c n-k cch ly ra qu mi hay cch
khc s kt cc ng kh nng ca bin c A1 l n v s kt cc thun li l
n-k, vy P(A1) =
Ly qu th 2 th s kt cc ng kh nng l n-1 v s kt cc thun li l
n-k-1 nn P(A2) =
Tng t P(A3) =

P(Ak) =
Xc sut k qu bng ly ra chi u l mi bng tch xc sut qu th 1,
th 2, th 3, th k u l qu mi.
Hay:
P = P(A1).P(A2)P(Ak)
= . . .
=
T s bng
Mu s bng
Vy P = [(n-k)!]2 / [n!(n-2k)!]

Bi 1.45:
a) Gi Ai l bin c ln i khng thu c tn hiu th Pi = 0,6.
Bin c ngun khng nhn c thng tin l tch ca 3 bin c c lp A1, A2,
A3.
P(A) = 0,6 . 0,6 .0,6 = 0,216.
Bin c i ca A l ngun thu c thng tin c xc sut l:
Pa = 1 - P(A) = 0,784.
Vy Pa = 0,784.
b) Nu mun xc sut thu c thng tin ln 0,9 th bin c ngun khng thu
c tn hiu phi c xc sut l 0,1.
S ln phi pht l n sao cho 0,6n = 0,1 => n =log

0, 6

0,1 = 4,5.

Vy phi pht t nht 5 ln.

Bi 1.46:
Gi xc sut bn trng ch ca ngi th nht l a.
Theo bi ra ta c:
0,2.a + 0,8.(1-a) = 0,38
0,6a = 0,42
a = 0,7

Vy xc sut bn trng ca ngi th nht l P = 0,7.

Bi 1.47:
a. Do ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v c hon li nn ta c
100 cch chn 2 sn phm.
Gi A l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln th nht l ph phm P(A) =
C 21
= 0,02
100
C1
Gi B l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln 2 l ph phm. P(B) = 2 = 0,02
100

Xc sut 2 ln ly ra u c ph phm l P = 0,02 + 0,02 = 0,04

Vy P= 0,04

b. Do ly ra ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v khng hon li nn

ta c 10.9 = 90 cch chn sn phm.
Gi A l bin c: C 2 sn phm u l ph phm. Ta c C 21 .C11 = 2 cch
chn ph phm.
P(A) =

2
= 0,022
90

Vy xc sut c 2 sn phm ly ra u l ph phm l P(A) = 0,022

Bi 1.48:
Gi A1 l bin c van 1 b hng P1 = 0,1.
A2 l bin c van 2 b hng th P2= 0,2.
Bin c ni hi hot ng mt an ton l tch ca hai bin c c lp A 1 v A2
nn P = 0,1.0,2 = 0,02
Bin c ni hi hot ng an ton l P = 1 - 0,02 = 0,98.
Bi 1.49:
Gi A l bin c: Bn n vin th 6 mi trng ch.
A1 l bin c: Vin th nht bn trng ch. P(A1) = 0,2
A2 l bin c : Vin th 2 bn trng ch. P(A2) = 0,2
.....
A6 l bin c : Vin th 6 bn trng ch. P(A6) = 0,2
Theo u bi ra, bn lin tip vo mt mc tiu cho n khi vin n u tin
trng mc tiu th dng. Do bn n vin th 6 th 5 vin u phi bn
trt, vin th 6 bn trng mc tiu. Mt khc cc ln bn c lp nhau nn cc
bin c A1, A2,A3,A4,A5,A6 l cc bin c c lp. Vy xc sut bn n vin th 6
mi trng ch l:
P(A) = P( A1 ) .P( A 2 ) . P( A 3 ).P( A4 ).P( A ).P(A6)= 0,85.0,2=0,065536
5

Bi 1.50:
Gi A1 l bin c: ln th th nht khng m c ca kho
A2 l bin c: ln th th hai khng m c ca kho
A3 l bin c: ln th th ba khng m c ca kho

A4 l bin c: ln th th t m c ca kho
A l bin c: m c ca kho ln th 4
Theo u bi, th kho th ngu nhin tng cha mt, chic no c th th
khng th li. Do A1,A2,A3,A4 l bin c ph thuc.
Xt bin c A1, chm cha kha c 9 cha trong ch mt cha m c, 8
cha cn li khng m c. Ln th th nht khng m c. Vy bin c A1
c xc sut: P(A1)= 8/9.
Xt bin c A2, sau khi th ln mt, cn 8 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 7 chic khng m c. Ln th th hai khng m c. Vy bin c
A2 c xc sut: P(A2/A1)=7/8.
Tng t, xt bin c A3, sau khi th ln hai, cn 7 chic cha kha trong 1
chic m c v 6 chic khng m c. Ln th th ba khng m c. Vy
bin c A3 c xc sut: P(A3/A1A2)=6/7.
Xt bin c A4, sau khi th ln ba, cn 6 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 5 chic khng m c. Ln th th t m c. Vy bin c A 4 c
xc sut: P(A4/A1A2A3)=1/6.
Vy xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l
P(A)=P(A1).P(A2/A1).P(A3/A1A2).P(A4/A1A2A3)=8/9.7/8.6/7.1/6=1/9
Kt lun xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l 1/9.
Bi 1.51: bng cch v s ven ra, ta c hnh

15%

24%
10%

Vy xc sut chn ngu nhin 1 khch hng bit thng tin v sn phm ca
cng ty l : P=15%+10%+24%=49%

1.50.
Gi A l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th 4
Gi A l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th i, i =
Vy A = A
Theo nh l nhn xc sut i vi 2 bin c ph thuc ta c:
P(A) = P( A) = P()P( / )P(/ )P(A /
)= . . . =
1.51.
Gi A l bin c khch hng nm c thng tin qua v tuyn truyn hnh, B
l bin c nm c thng tin qua i pht thanh. Gi C l bin c chn ngu
nhin 1 khch hng th ngi nm c thng tin v sn phm ca cng ty)
Theo bi ra ta c: P(A) = 0.25; P(B) = 0.34; P(AB) = 0.1
P(C) = P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.25 + 0.34 - 0.1 = 0.49
1.53.
Gi A l bin c mch khng c in do bng hng. gi A l bin c bng
n th nht hng; A l bin c bng n th 2 hng
a. nu 2 bng n mc ni tip: mch khng c in th phi c t nht 1
bng
hng. khi l bin c khng c bng n no hng
ta c: = . => P() = P( . ) = 0.8 . 0.9 = 0.72
P(A) = 1 - P () = 0.28
b. nu 2 bng n mc song song: mch khng c in th c 2 bng n
u
hng. khi ta c: A = A A
P(A) = P(A A) = 0.1 . 0.2 = 0.02
1.54.
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm t l i th l bin c ly c ph
phm t l i, i = 1,2
a.gi A l bin c ly c 1 chnh phm
theo bi ra ta c P(A) = ; P(A) = ; P() = ; P() =
vy P(A) = P(A) P() + P() P(A) = . + . = 0.26
c. gi B l bin c ly c t nht mt chnh phm th l bin c khng
ly c chnh phm no
P() = P()P() = . = 0.02
Vy P(B) = 1 - P() = 0.98
1.55.
Gi A l bin c ln th i ly ra 3 sn phm mi kim tra. (i = ). Gi A l
bin c sau 3 ln kim tra tt c cc sn phm u c kim tra. A = A A A
V cc bin c l ph thuc nn:
P(A) = P( A )P(A /A )P(A /A A ) = 1 . . =
1.56.
Gi A l bin c vin n th i trng ch, i =
Gi A l bin c bn n vin n c th hi vng rng khng c vin no
trt
Ta c: P(A) = P(A) = = P(A) = 0.8
P(A) = P(A)P(A)P(A) = 0.8

Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A nh hn 0.4 nn ta c bt phng trnh

sau:
0.8 < 0.4
=> lg (0.8) < lg 0.4
=> n.lg 0.8 < lg 0.4
=> n >
=> n > 4.106
Vy n 5
1.57.
Gi A l bin c tung ln th i c mt 6 chm, i = v A l bin c
trong n ln tung th c t nht 1 ln c mt 6 chm.Vy A = A .
Cc bin c A l khng xung khc v c lp ton phn vi nhau, do :
P(A) = 1 - P()
V P(A) = P(A) = P(A) == P(A) = (xc sut mi ln tung c mt 6
chm) do :
P() = P() =.= P() =
Nn ta c:
P(A) = 1 - ( )
Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A ln hn 0.5 do ta thu c bpt sau:
1 - ( ) > 0.5
=> ( ) < 0.5
=> n >
=> n > 3.802
1.58.
Coi vic bn hng mi ni ca ngi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th
c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc bn c hng, hoc
khng bn c hng. Xc sut bn c hng mi ni u bng 0.2. Vy bi
ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli
P (2) = C . 0.2 . 0.8 = 0.302
b. P (1) + P (2) + +P (10) = 1 - P (0) = 1- C . 0.2 . 0.8 = 0.8926
1.59.
Coi vic sn xut ra sn phm ca my l 1 php th th ta c 12 php th
c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc sn xut ra ph
phm hoc sn xut ra chnh phm. Xc sut my sn xut ra ph phm l
0.05. Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli ta c:
P (2) = C . 0.05 . 0.95 = 0.109
b. Gi A l bin c my sn xut ra c khng qu 2 ph phm, ta c:
P(A) =P (0) + P (1) + P (2) = C . 0.05 . 0.95 + C . 0.05 . 0.95 +
C . 0.05 . 0.95 = 0.9804
1.60.
Coi vic tr li cu hi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th c lp. Trong mi
php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc tr li ng hoc tr li sai. Xc

sut tr li ng 1 cu hi l ( v mi cu c 5 cch tr li, trong ch

c 1 cch tr li ng). Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli
Gi A l bin c ngi thi , ta c:
P(A) = P (8) + P (9) + P (10)
= C . ( ) . ( ) + C . ( ) . ( ) + C . ( ) . ( ) = 0.000078
Bi 1. 61:
Gi A l bin c c chung ku khi chy th
no ku khi chy.
Gi

Ta c P(
Ta c

l bin c khng c chung

(i= 1,4 ) ln lt l bin c chung th i khng ku khi c chy

H )=1-0, 95=0, 05 (i=

=H H H H
i

1,4

Bn bin c ny ging nh 4 php th c lp. Trong mi php th u

hoc xy ra bin c chung ku, hoc chung khng ku. Xc sut mi ln
chung khng ku l 0, 05. Vy n tha mn lc Bernoulli. Xc sut
c 4 chung u khng ku l
P( A )=P(

10

HH H H
1

.
.
4 )= C 4 0,05
4

(10,05 )

= 6, 25.

Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=0, 999994

Bi 1. 62
Gi A l bin c sn phm ly ra l tt.
Gi H1 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my I.
Gi H2 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my II.
Bin c A c th xy ra vi 1 trong hai bin c H1, H2 to thnh 1 nhm
bin c y . Do theo cng thc xc sut y
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=2/3. 0, 97+1/3. 0, 98=0, 9733
Bi 1. 63:
a. Gi A l bin c vin n trng ch
Gi H1 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi I th P(H1)=

C
C

2
1

=1/5

10

H2 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi II th P(H2)=4/5

Ta c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c I, II l 2 bin c lp thnh mt nhm
bin c y nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)= P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=1/5. 0, 9+4/5. 0, 8=0, 82
b. Gi G1 l bin c ngi th nht bn trng
G2 l bin c ngi th 2 bn trng

B l bin c c 2 ngi bn trng

Ta c P(G1)=P(G2)=0, 82 theo cu a
Ta c B=G1. G2 m 2 bin c ny c lp nn P(B)=P(G1). P(G2)=0, 82. 0,
82=0, 6724
Bi 1. 64:
Gi Hi l bin c ly dc l i (i= 1,2 )
P(H1)=P(H2)=1/2
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm:
P(A/H1)=1; P(A/H2)=4/5
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 lp thnh 1 nhm bin c
y nn theo cng thc xc sut y :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 9
Theo cng thc Bayes
P(H1/A)=

P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)

=5/9

Tng t P(H2/A)=4/9
Gi B l bin c Sn phm ly ra ln th 2 l chnh phm
B vn c th xy ra vi mt trong 2 bin c H1, H2. Do theo cng thc
xc sut y
P(B)=P(H1/A)P(B/H1A)+P(H2/A)P(B/H2A)=4/45
Bi 1. 65:
Gi A l bin c my bay ri.
Hi l bin c bn trng i pht (i= 1,3 )
Gi l bin c bn trng pht th i(i= 1,3 )
Ta c H1=G1. G 2 . G 3 + G1 . G2. G 3 + G1 . G 2 . G3 nn P(H1)=0, 33
Tng t, P(H2)=0, 41; P(H3)=0, 14
A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y nn
theo cng thc xc sut y ta c :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)=0, 36. 0, 2+0, 41.
0, 6+0, 14. 1=0, 458
Bi 1. 66
Gi A l bin c ly ra c t nht 1 chnh phm th A l bin c ly c
ton ph phm.
Gi H1 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra u thuc l 1
H2 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra thuc l 2
H3 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm th 1 sp thuc l 1, 1 sp thuc l 2.

C
Ta c P(H1)=
C

2
2
2
5

C
=1/10, P(H2)=
C

2
3
2
5

C .C
=3/10, P(H3)=
C
2

1
3

=3/5

xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c trn v 3 bin c ny lp thnh 1 nhm

bin c y .
A

C
Ta c P( A /H1)=
C

C
=3/45, P( A /H2)=
C

3
2

2
2

10

=1/45, P( A /H3)= C . C
10

10

10

=0, 6
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c
P( A )=P(H1). P( A /H1)+P(H2). P( A /H2+P(H3). P( A /H3)= 37/750
Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=1-37/750 0, 951
Bi 1. 67:
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm.
H1 l bin c thnh phn ca l th nht khng thay i
H2 l bin c l th nht mt ph phm c thay th bng mt chnh
phm.
H3 l bin c l th nht mt chnh phm c thay th bng mt ph
phm.
Ta c :
Vi H1, do thnh phn ca l 1 khng i tc l t l th nht b sang l th
2 l sn phm nh th no th sn phm b tr li s nh th.
1

Do P(H1)=

C a . C c +1 + C b . C d +1
C

.
a + b C c + d +1

Vi H2, ta c l 1 lc u b ph phm, chuyn 1 ph phm sang l 2 th l

2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn 1 chnh phm sang l 1
1

P(H2)=

C b .C c
1

a +b

c +d +1

C .C

Vi H3, ta c lc u l 1 c a chnh phm, chuyn sang l 2 mt ph

phm th l 2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn sang l 1 mt ph
phm
1

P(H3)=

C a .C d
1

a +b

.C c + d +1
a

a +1

a 1

Ta c: P(A/H1)= a + b ; P(A/H2)= a + b ; P(A/H3)= a + b

Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l mt nhm bin c
y . Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
a

P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)= a + b +

bc ad

(a +b)

(c + d +1)

Bi 1. 68:
a. Gi A l bin c tm c mt ngi vim hng
H1 l bin c tm c ngi nghin thuc
H2 l bin c tm c ngi khng nghin thuc
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 l 1 nhm bin c y
nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 3. 0, 6+0, 7. 0, 4=0, 46
Khi theo cng thc Bayes:
P(H1/A)=

P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( A)

=0, 3913

b. Gi B l bin c tm c ngi khng b vim hng th P(B)=1-P(A)=10, 46=0, 54

B vn xy ra vi 2 bin c H1, H2 nn theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P(H2/B)=

P ( H 1). P ( B / H 1)
P( B)

=0, 222

Bi 1. 69
Gi A l bin c c 2 b phn hng
H1 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 2 b hng
H2 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 3 b hng
H3 l bin c ch c b phn 2 v 3 b hng
Gi (i= 1,3 ) l bin c b phn th i b hng
Ta c H1=G1. G2. G 3 nn P(H1)=0, 056
Tng t P(H2)=0, 036; P(H3)=0, 096
Ta c A=H1+H2+H3 m 3 bin c ny xung khc tng i mt nn
P(A)=P(H1)+P(H2)+P(H3)=0, 188
Vy xc sut 2 b phn hng l 1 v 2 l

P ( H 1)
P ( A)

=0, 298

Bi 1. 70
Gi G l bin c tm c bnh nhn l k s
H1 l bin c bnh nhn tnh A.
H2 l bin c bnh nhn tnh B
H3 l bin c bnh nhn tnh C
Ta c G xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y .
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(G)= P(H1). P(G/H1)+P(H2). P(G/H2)+P(H3). P(G/H3)
=0, 25. 0, 02+0, 35. 0, 03+0, 4. 0, 035=0, 0295
1.71,
A= ch cu c mt con c trong 3 ln cu
Hi= ngi ny ngi ch th i, i = 1,2,3
A c th xy ra ng thi vi 1 trong 3 bin c v to nn mt nhm cc
bin c y . Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =

P ( H1 ).P ( A / H1 )
3

P( H ).P( A / H )
i =1

Trong :
P(H1) = P(H2) = P(H3) = 1/3
P(A/H1) = 0,6.0,42 = 0,096
P(A/H2) = 0,7.0,32 = 0,063
P(A/H3) = 0,8.0,22 = 0,032
Do , ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =

0,096
96
=
0,5026
0,096 + 0,063 + 0,032
191

p n: 0,5026
1.72,
Xc sut ca bin c A l 0,7. iu c ngha l t s gia kt cc thun
li cho A v tng s cc kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi thc
hin php th l 0,7
1.73,
A = c mt hp no c 1 ph phm
Gi s 3 hp ny phn bit vi nhau
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp 30 sn phm vo
10
10
.C10
3 chic hp sao cho mi hp c 10 sn phm l: C3010 .C 20
Xt bin c A = c 3 ph phm u nm trong mt hp
+ Nu c 3 ph phm u nm trong hp 1.
10
10
.C10
S kt cc thun li l C 277 .C 20
+ Vi trng hp c 3 ph phm cng nm trong hp 2, hoc 3 u
chung mt kt qu nh trn
10
10
.C10
Vy, s kt cc thun li cho bin c A l: 3.C277 .C20
Do ,
P( A ) =

7
3.C 27
10
C 30

Suy ra,
P( A) = 1 P ( A ) = 1

7
3.C 27
0,91133
10
C 30

1.74,
a, A= Mi ngi khch x ng i giy ca mnh
S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!)2
(Do c N i giy, v s cch i N i giy y cho chn tri hay chn phi
ca N ngi l N!)
S kt cc thun li l: 1
Do :
P ( A) =

1
( N !) 2

b, B= Mi ngi khch x ng hai chic giy ca mt i giy no

S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!)2
S kt cc thun li l N!
Do :
P( B) =

N!
1
=
2
( N !)
N!

1.75,
A= Sn phm sn xut ra l chnh phm
B= Sn phm sn xut ra l ph phm
H1= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l chnh phm
H2= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l ph phm
Ta c:
P(A) = 0,95
P(B) = 0,05
P(H1/A) = 0,04
P(H2/B) = 0,01
a, X = Sn phm c kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc ra l ph
phm
Ta c: X = BH1
P(X) = P(B). P(H1/B) = 0,05.0,01 = 0,0005
Vy: T l sn phm b kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc t l ph phm
l 0,05%
b, Y= Sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm
Ta c: Y =AH2
P(Y) = P(A).P(H2/A) = 0,95.0,04 = 0,038
Vy: T l sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm l 3,8%
c, T l sn phm b thit b kim tra kt lun nhm l: 3,85%

1.76,
a, A= Ly c nam sinh vin
P ( A) =

400 + 800
= 0,6
2000

b, B= Ly c sinh vin hc kinh t

P( B) =

400 + 500
= 0,45
2000

c, C= Ly c hoc nam sinh vin, hoc hc kinh t

P (C ) = P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( AB ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( A). P ( B / A) = 0,6 + 0,45 0,6.

d, D= Ly c nam sinh vin v hc kinh t

D = AB
P ( D) = P ( AB ) = P ( A). P ( B / A) = 0,6.

400
= 0,85
400 + 800

400
= 0,2
400 + 800

e, E= Ly c l sinh vin kinh t khi ngi l nam sinh vin

P ( E ) = P ( B / A) =

1.77,

400
1
=
400 + 800 3

a, Trc khi m kin hng, xc sut kin hng l ca x nghip l:

P ( A) =

60
= 0.6
100

b, X= Sn phm ly ra l ph phm
H1 = Sn phm ca x nghip A
H2 = Sn phm ca x nghip B
Ta c:
P( H 1 / X ) =

P ( X / H 1 ). P( H 1 )
P( X / H 1 ). P ( H 1 ) + P ( X / H 2 ). P ( H 2 )

Trong :
P(H1) = 0,6; P(H2) = 0,4
P(X/H1) = 0,3; P(X/H2) = 0,1
Do :
P( H 1 / X ) =

0,6.0,3
9
=
0,81
0,6.0,3 + 0,4.0,1 11

c, Y = C 2 sn phm u ra ph phm
P( H 1 / Y ) =

P (Y / H 1 ). P ( H 1 )
P (Y / H 1 ).P ( H 1 ) + P (Y / H 2 ).P ( H 2 )

Gi s: L hng kim tra c 10N sn phm

C 32N
C N2
P (Y / H 1 ) = 2 ; P(Y / H 2 ) = 2
C10 N
C10 N

Do :

P( H 1 / Y ) =

C 32N
C 32N + C N2

1.78,
X= v thng xem chng trnh th thao
Y= chng thng xem chng trnh th thao
P(X) = 0,3; P(Y) = 0,5; P(Y/X) = 0,6
a,
A = C hai cng xem chng trnh th thao
A = XY
P(A) = P(X).P(Y/X) = 0,3.0,6 = 0,18
b,
B = C t nht mt ngi thng xem
B=X+Y
P(B) = P(X+Y) = P(X) + P(Y) P(XY) = 0,3 + 0,5 0,18 = 0,62
c,
C = Khng c ai thng xem
P(C) = 1-P(B) = 0,38
d,
D = Nu chng xem th v xem cng
P ( D) = P( X / Y ) =

P(Y / X ). P ( X ) 0,6.0,3
=
= 0,36
P (Y )
0,5

e,
E = Nu chng khng xem th v vn xem
P( E ) = P( X / Y ) =

P (Y / X ). P( X ) [1 P(Y / X ) ].P ( X ) (1 0,6). 0,3

=
=
= 0,24
P (Y )
1 P (Y )
1 0,5

1.79,
Hi = Bn c hng ln th i
Ta c:
P(H1) = 0,8
P(H2/H1) = 0,9; P(H3/H2) = 0,9
P ( H 2 / H 1 ) = 0,4; P ( H 3/ H 2 ) = 0,4

a, A= C 3 ln u bn c hng
P(A) = P(H1.H2.H3) = P(H1).P(H2/ H1).P(H3/ H2. H1) =
= 0,8.0,9.0,9 = 0,648
b, B = C ng 2 ln bn c hng
P( B) = P( H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 )
= P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3
= 0,2.0,4.0,9 + 0,8.0,1.0,4 + 0,8.0,9.0,1 = 0,176

1.80,
E1 = Cp sinh i ng trng
E2 = Cp sinh i khc trng
P(E1) = P; P(E2) = 1- P
A = Cp sinh i c cng gii tnh

P ( E1 / A) =

P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 )
1 .P
2P
=
=
1
P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 ) + P ( A / E2 ).P ( E2 ) 1.P + .(1 P ) P + 1 Vy:
2

Nu cp tr sinh i c cng gii tnh th xc sut chng l cp sinh i cng

gii tnh l:
2P
P +1

1.81.
3

= C9 C6 C3
a.
Gi A = Mt phn gm 3 cu
P( A) =

1
3

CCC

1
1680

b.
Gi B = Mi phn c 1 cu
Nh vy 2 cu cn li mi phn l cu xanh
1

P( B) =

C3C6 + C3 C 4 + C3C 2
3

CCC

1.82.

58
1680

a.
A= H thng phun nc b hng P( A) = 0,1
B= H thng bo ng b hng P( B) = 0,2
C= C t nht 1 h thng hot ng bnh thng
C = AB
P (C ) = P ( AB ) = 0,04

P (C ) =1 P (C ) = 0,96

b.
D= C 2 h thng hot ng bnh thng
D = A + B , A,B khng xung khc P ( D ) = P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P( AB ) = 0,26

P( D ) = 1 0,26 = 0,74

1.83.
H= Chai ru ly ra thuc loi A
A= 3 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi A
B= 1 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi B
3

P( A / H ) = C 4 .0,8 3.0,2 = 0,4096

1

P( B / H ) = C 4 .0,2.0,8 3 = 0,4096
3

P ( A / H ) = C 4 .0,2 3.0,8 = 0,0256

1

P ( B / H ) = C 4 .0,8.0,2 3 = 0.0256
1
(0,4096) 2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H )
2
P ( H / AB) =
=
= 0,996
1
1
2
2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H ) + P ( H )P ( AB / H )
(0,4096) + (0,0256)
2
2

1.84.
a.
A= 2 mu hng cng loi
A1= 2 mu hng loi A
A2= 2 mu hng loi B

6 3

= 0,18
10 10
4 7
P ( A2 ) =

= 0,28
10 10
A = A1 + A2 , A1 , A2
P ( A1 ) =

A1, A2 xung khc

P ( A) = P ( A)1 + P ( A2 ) = 0,18 + 0,28 = 0,46

1.

2.

b.
H1= Mu ly ra hp 1
H2= Mu ly ra hp 2
B= Mu ly ra thuc loi B
P(H1)=0,45
P(H2)=0,55
P(B)=P(H1)P(B/H1)+P(H2)P(B/H2)=0,45.0,4+0,55.0,7=0,565
C= Mu ly ra thuc loi A

P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,45 .0,6
=
= 0,62
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,435
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,55 .03
P ( H 2 / A) =
=
= 0,38
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2) + P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,435

P ( H 1 / A) =

Vy mu nhiu kh nng thuc H1 hn

1.85.
H1= Chic 1 ly c l ca i khng chic no hng
H2= Chic 1 ly c l ca i c mt chic hng
H3= Chic mt ly c l ca i c hai chic hng
P(H1)=.9, P(H2)=0.08,P(H3)=0.02
A= Chic mt ly ra b hng
B= Chic hai ly ra b hng
P(A)=P(H1)P(A/H1)+P(H2)
(A/H2)+P(H3)P(A/H3)=0,9.0+0,08.0,5+0,02.1=0,06
P(B)=P(H3/A)=

P ( H 3) P ( A / H 3) 0,02 1
=
=
P ( A)
0,06 3

1.91
Gi A l bin c ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc ban u hp c i sn phm tt i = 0, n
P ( Hi ) =

i
n

P ( A \ Hi ) =

i +1
n +1

V b vo hp c n sn phm 1 sn phm ri sau ly ngu nhin ra 1

sn phm nn p dng cng thc xc sut y , ta c:

P ( A) = P ( Hi ) P ( A \ Hi )
i=0

n+2

Ta c P( A) = 2(n + 1)
n+2

p s: 2(n + 1)

1.92
Gi A l bin c k sn phm ly ra u l chnh phm.
Hi ln lt l bin c trong hp c i chnh phm, vi i=1,2,6.
Theo cng thc Bayes th:
P(Hi/A) =
V ta ly ngu nhin ln lt k sn phm theo phng thc c hon li nn tng
s kt cc ng kh nng xy ra ng bng s chnh hp lp chp k ca n, tc l
bng nk.
Mt khc, nu hp cha i chnh phm, th c C cch xy ra ( c C cch chn
i sn phm trong n sn phm), vi mi cch nh th, s cch ly c k
chnh phm trong s i chnh phm theo phng thc c hon li l ik.
Vy P(Hi).P(A/Hi) =
P(Hn/A) = =1.
P(A) = P(H1).P(A/H1) + P(H2).P(A/H2) ++P(Hn).P(A/Hn)
= +

+.+

=( n + 2k +

3k ++ nk) / nk

Vy, P(Hn/A) =

1.93
Gi T l bin c A thng trung cuc trong 2 vn d hn thng trung
cuc trong 4 vn
* Gi C l bin c A thng B chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(C ) = 1 P(C )
P (C ) l xc sut xy ra bin c A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn

Gi D l bin c A thua B mt vn
P( D) = 1 P
Mun A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn th A phi thua c 2 vn nn
P (C ) = (1 P )

P(C ) = 1 P(C ) = 1 (1 P)2 = 2 P P 2

* Gi E l bin c A thng B chung cuc trong 4 vn
P( E ) = 1 P( E )
P (E ) l xc sut xy ra bin c A thua B chung cuc 4 vn

+ TH1 gi F l bin c A thua B 4 vn

P( F ) = (1 P)

+ TH2: Gi G l bin c A thua B 3 vn

P(G ) = 4 P(1 P)

Ta c: P( E ) = P( F ) + P(G ) = (1 P) 4 + 4 P(1 P)3

P( E ) = 1 (1 P) 4 (1 P) 3 .4 P = 6 P 2 8 P 3 + 3P 4
Vy P(T) phi tha mn 2 P P 2 6 P 2 8P3 + 3P 4
2

P(T ) 3
p s P(T )

2
3

1.94
Gi A l bin c sn phm th nht l ph phm
B l bin c sn phm th 2 l ph phm.
Vy bin c trong 2 sn phm mua c 1 sn phm ph phm l bin c tng
A. + .B
y l 2 nhm bin c xung khc nn xc sut tng bng tng cc xc sut
Gi H1, H2 l bin c sn phm mua thuc day chuyn s 1, s 2.
Ta tnh P(A. )trc.
P (H1) = P(H2) = 0,5
P(A) = 0,5.0,2 +0,5.0,03 = 0,025
Sau khi A xy ra th cc xc sut ca H1, H2 thay i theo cng thc Bayes
nh sau:
P(H1/A) = =
P(H2/A) = =
P( /A ) = .0,98 + .0,97 = 0,974
Vy P(A, ) = 0,025.0,0974 = 0,02435.

Tnh P( , B)

Tng t, P( ) = 0,5.0,98 + 0,5.0,97 = 0,975

P(H1/ ) = =
P(H2/ ) =

P(B/ ) = 0,02. + 0,03. =

Vy P( , B) = 0,975. = 0,02435
Vy P = 0,02435 + 0,02435 =0,0487

1.95
a) s ln nm trng ca ngi th nht cao hn ngi th 2 th cc t s c th
xy ra l 2-0, 1-0, 2-1.,
Cc bin c trn xung khc tng i.
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-0 l: 0,6.0,6.0,3.0,3 =0,0324
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-1 l: 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,3 .2 =0,1512
Xc sut xy ra t s 1-0 l: 0,6.0,4.0,3.0,3 .2 =0,0432
Vy Pa = 0,0324 + 0,1512 + 0,0432 = 0,2268
b) s ln nm trng ca 2 ngi l bng nhau th c th xy ra c t s sau: 00, 1-1, 2-2
tng t ta c
Pb = 0,4.0,4.0,3.0,3 +2.0,4.0,6.2,0,3.0,7 + 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,7 = 0,3924
1.96
gi s ln rt th i ngi 1 rt c qu trng.
ln 1:

P= a/(a+b)

ln 2:

P= b/(a+b). b/(a+b). a/(a+b) = [ b/(a+b)]^2 .a/(a+b)

ln 3:

P= [ b/(a+b)^4 . a/(a+b)

p l xc xut ngi th nht rt c qu trng trc

P= a/(a+b) + [b/(a+b)] ^2 . a/(a+b)

a/(a+b) +............
P= a/(a+b) . { [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2
t

+ [ b/(a+b)] ^4 .
[b /(a+b)]^4...........}

[b/(a+b)]^2 = X

ta c ( [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2

[b /(a+b)]^4...........} )

= 1 + X + X^2 + X^3 +............. = 1/(1-X)

(dy cp s nhn li v hn: co so la X < 1) =

P= a/(a+b) . 1/ (1 - X) = (a+b) / (a+2b)

1.95
Co cac truong hop xay ra la:
Goi x la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 1, y la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 2.
a. co cac truong hop thoa man la:
(2,1);(2,0);(1,0)( cac truong hop nay la xung khac), xac suat nem trung cua
nguoi 1 va nguoi 2 la hoan toan doc lap.
Theo becnuli va quy tac nhan:
2
1
1
P(a)= c 2 (0.6)^2* c 2 0.7*0.3+ c 2 0.6*0.4*0,3^2+0,6^2*0,3^2=0,2268
b. tuong tu co cac cap thoa man la`
(2,2),(1,1),(0,0)
1
1
P(B)=0,6^2.0,7^2+ c 2 .0,6.0,4. c 2 .0,7.0,3+0,4^2.0,3^2=0,3924
1.97
Xac suat de m nguoi ngoi dung cho:
P(A)=1/m!
Xax suat de m nguoi ngoi sai cho:
2
1
k
P(B)=[(n-m)!-( c n m .(n-m-1)!-( c n m . (n-m-2)!-.. ( c n m .(n-m-k)!-..-1)))]/
(n-m)!
(1) ^ k
k!
k =0

n m

=1-1/1!+1/2!-1/3!+.+(-1)^(m-n)/m(m-n)!=
Vay xac suat cua bai toan la`:
P(A).P(B)= 1/m!.

(1) ^ k
k!
k =0

nm

1.98: sgk
1.99
hai nguoi nay choi toi da la m+n-1 van thi moi biet duoc minh thang hay thua.
Xet cac truong hop thang cho nguoi thu nhat:
Ta phan thanh cac truong hop nguoi do phai danh lan luot la :
m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1 tran moi biet minh thang( so thu tu cau van thang cuoi
cung lan luot la m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1). Cac truong hop nay lan luot xung
khac.
Ap dung becnuli
P(m)=(1/2)^m
m 1
1
P(m+1)= c m .(1/2)^(m-1).1/2.1/2=1/2. c m .(1/2)^m
2

P(m+2)= c m+1 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^2.1/2=1/2^2. c m+1 .(1/2)^m

m 1

.
m 1
n
P(m+n-1)= c m+ n 2 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^(n-1).1/2=(1/2)^n. c m+ n 2 .(1/2)^(n-1)
Nen xac suat nguoi thu nhat:
P(1)= (1/2)^m(1+1/2.

+1/2^2. c m+1 +.+ (1/2)^(n-1). c m+ n 2 )

m

Hoan toan tuong tu cho nguoi thu 2. ti le chia tien la p(1)/p(2)

1.100
Goi A la bien co khong boc trung r lan o bao 2.
Do lan cuoi cung boc trung bao khong( khong mat tinh tong quat gia su la bao 1)
Nen so lan boc phai la: 2n-r+1
Xac suat boc trung 1 trong 2 bao la .
Theo becnuli: de trong bao diem kia con lai r que thi xac suat phai la:
r
r
c 2nr +1 .(1/2)^r.(1/2)^(2n-2r+1)= c 2nr +1 .(1/2)^(2n-2r+1)
dpcm

Bi 1.91)
Gi A = ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc u hp c I sng phm tt ( i =
P(H0) = P(H1) = = P(Hn) =

0, n

1
n +1

C11
1
P(A/H0) = 1 =
n +1
C n +1
C21
2
P(A/H1) = 1 = n +1
Cn +1

P(A/Hn) =

Cn1 +1
n +1
= n +1
1
Cn +1

Do A c th xy ra vi 1 trong cc bin c Hi v to thnh 1 nhm cc bin c

y nn:
P(A) = P(H0).P(A/H0) + P(H1).P(A/H1) + + P(Hn).P(A/Hn)
2
1
.
n +1 n + 1
1
( n + 2)( n +1)
2 .
(n +1)
2
n +2
2( n +1)
1

= n +1 . n +1 +
=
=

+ +

1 n +1
.
n + 1 n +1

1.93
TH1) H1 = A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(H1) = C 12 . p(1-p) + C 22 .p2 = 2p(1-p) + p2

TH2) H2 = A thng chung cuc trong 4 vn

P(H2) = C 24 .p2(1-p)2 + C 34 .p3(1-p) + C 44 .p4
= 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p2(1-p) +p4
A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn
P(H1) > P(H2)
2p(1-p) + p2 > 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p3(1-p) + p4 ( 0<p 1 )
2(1-p) + p > 6p(1-p)2 +4p2(1-p) + p3
2

(p-1)2(p- 3 ) < 0
p 23 <0
p 1

2
> p>0
3

Vy A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn th

2
> p>0
3

1.94)
Gi H1 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 1
H2 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 2
A = khch hang mua phi 1 ph phm
B = khch hang mua c 1 chnh phm
P(A/H1) = 0,02 ; P(A/H2) = 0,03
P(B/H1) = 0,98 ; P(B/H2) = 0,97
P(AB) = P(A/H1). P(B/H1) + P(A/H1). P(B/H2) + P(A/H2). P(B/H1) + P(A/H2).
P(B/H2)
= 0,02.0,98 + 0,02.0,97 + 0,03.0,97 + 0,03.0,98
= 0,0975
Khi ch n th x c su t ch n c m t trong 2 day chuyen la nen ket qua cu
i c ng c a b i to n l 0.024375
???????

1.94
Mua c 2 DC1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 98%
Mua c 2 DC2 ko l ph phm x 97% x 97%
Mua 1 DC 2 1 DC 1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 97%
Ly 1- i hy vng ng =))

Bi 1.97: Trong rp c n ch c nh s , n ngi c v vo ngi mt cch

ngu nhin. Tm xc sut c m ngi ngi ng ch.
Yu cu bi ton l tm xc sut m ngi ngi ng ch v (n- m) ngi cn
li ngi sai ch.
A= m ngi ngi ng ch.
S trng hp ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp m ngi vo n v tr l
S trng hp thun li cho bin c A l mA=

m
n

C
Vy P(A) =
A

n
m

1
m!

B= n- m ngi cn li ngi sai ch.

C= C t nht 1 ngi trong n- m ngi cn li ngi ng ch n- m v tr cn
li.
Ta c P(B)= P(C)
Ai= Ngi th i ngi ng ch. Vi i= 1, n m .
P(Ai)=

1
n m

n m

v C=

i =1

V cc bin c Ai khng xung khc vi nhau nn

P i - P ( Ai A j ) + ... + (-1)n-1P(A1A2...An-m)
P(C)=

(A)
i

C n-m ch nn

i< j

P( A ) =(n-m). n 1 m =1
i

V Ai, Aj l cc bin c c iu kin nn

1

P(AiAj)= P(Ai)P(Aj/Ai)= n m n m 1

P( A A ) = C
i< j

2
n m

1
1
1
.
=
n m n m 1 2!
1

Tng t P(A1A2...An-m)= (n m)!

n m
n m
n m
1
1
1
1
+
+
...
+
.
(1) (n m)! = (1) . (n m)!
P(C)= 1- 2! 3!
i =1

P(B)=1-P(C) = 1-

n m

(1)
i =1

(1)
h!

n m
1
.
=
( n m)!

n m

h =0

Theo nh l nhn xc sut, v A, B c lp

P(AB)= P(A)P(B)=

1
m!

(1)
h!

n m

h =0

Bi 1.98: Mt h thng k thut gm n b phn vi xc sut hot ng tt ca

mi b phn l p. H thng s ngng hot ng khi c t nht mt b phn b

hng. nng cao tin cy ca h thng ngi ta d tr thm n b phn na

theo 2 phng thc( hnh v SBT/T37)
Hi phng thc d tr no em li tin cy cao hn cho h thng?
tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc a:
Pa = [1- (1-p)2]n = pn(2-p)n
(V: (1-p)2 l xc sut c 2 b phn cng mt nhm b hng, khi h thng b
hng)
tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc b:
Pb = 1- (1-pn)2 = pn(2-pn)
(V (1-pn)2 l xc sut m trong c hai nhnh, mi nhnh u c 1 b phn b
hng)
Ta cn chng minh: Pa>Pb hay (2-p)n > (2-pn) (2-p)n + pn > 2
t q = 1-p ta c: (1+q)n + (1-q)n >2 (ng theo khai trin nh thc Newton)
Vy: phng thc d tr a mang li tin cy cao hn cho h thng.
Bi 1.99: Bi ny nhm em cha lm c .
Bi 1.100: Mt ngi b 2 bao dim vo ti, mi bao c n que dim. Mi khi
ht thuc ngi rt ngu nhin mt bao v nh mt que. Tm xc sut
khi ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim th bao kia cn li ng r que dim.
Ngi pht hin mt bao ht v bao cn li r que dim nn ngi
ly dim 2n-r+1 ln ( v 1 ln l pht hin 1 bao ht nn ko ly c dim!)
S cc trng hp ng kh nng l : 22n-r+1 (v c 2 bao nn mi ln rt dim c
2 kh nng)
c 1 bao cn li r que dim nn trong 2n-r+1 ln ly dim phi c r ln khng
ly phi bao . S trng hp r ln ly ko vo bao : C 2rn r +1
Vy xc sut khi ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim v bao kia cn li
ng r que dim l :
C 2rn r +1
P = 2 n r +1
2