TNH XC SUT BNG CNG THC XC SUT Y V BAYES

11.01.2010 Gi s ta c nhm y cc bin c ( ngha l 2 bin c bt k u xung khc vi nhau v tng ca n bin c ny tng ng vi bin c chc chn: Bin c A cn tm xc sut quan h vi nhm y nh sau: Bin c A xy ra th suy ra xy ra bin c no ; cn ngc li nu xy ra bin c no th cha khng nh bin c A xy ra. Khi P(A) c tnh nh sau: (Cng thc y ) k=1,,n (Cng thc Bayes) Nhn xt. Ci kh khi tnh xc sut bng cng thc y v cng thc Bayes l phi nhn ra c m hnh bi ton v phi ch ra c nhm y cc bin c. Trc ht ta thy rng nhm y l khng duy nht. Chng hn nhm y th cng u l nhm y . Vn ta phi chn nhm y no c quan h vi bin c A ph hp v m hnh? Nu bi ton cp n 2 phn, bin c A lin quan trc tip n phn sau th nhm y cn tm chnh l cc trng hp xy ra phn u. Nu php th gm 2 bc hay 2 giai on; bin c A lin quan trc tip n bc sau hay giai on sau th nhm y cn tm chnh l cc trng hp c th ca bc mt hay giai on 1. V d 1. Mt nh my c 3 phn xng cng sn xut ra mt loi sn phm. Sn phm ca phn xng I chim sn lng ca nh my. Tng t, phn xng II v phn xng III chim T l chnh phm ca tng phn xng tng ng l v a) Tm t l chnh phm chung ca ton nh my. b) Ly ngu nhin t l sn phm ca nh my ta b ci ph phm. Hy on xem ph phm l do phn xng no lm ra? Li gii. a) Bi ton ny cp n 2 phn: phn xng ca nh my v sn phm chnh phm. Vic tm t l chnh phm chung ca nh my tng ng vi vic tnh xc sut ca bin c: A={Ly ngu nhin ra mt sn phm, c chnh phm}. Bin c A lin quan trc tip n chnh phm. Do theo nhn xt trn nhm y s l: ={Sn phm ca phn xng i}; i=1,2,3.

Vy ta c:

( y cc xc sut c iu kin c tnh trc tip. Din t thnh li: $P(A/{B_1})$ l xc sut ly ra mt chnh phm vi iu kin cc sn phm ny do phn xng I lm ra hay l xc sut ly ra mt chnh phm ca phn xng I; theo bi ta c ngay 0,94) b) tr li cu hi b) ta dng cng thc Bayes

Vy ta nn on ph phm ly ra l ca phn xng I lm ra. Tr li nh vy kh nng ng l cao nht. V d 2. C hai l sn phm. L I c 10 chnh phm v 2 ph phm. L II c 16 chnh phm v 4 ph phm. T mi l ta ly ngu nhin ra 1 sn phm. Tm xc sut sn phm ly ra sau cng l chnh phm. Gii. Php th y gm hai bc, A={Sn phm ly ra sau cng l chnh phm} cho nn nhm y gm bn trng hp xy ra c th ca bc 1. t ={ Sn phm ly ra t l I l chnh phm}; i=1,2.

Khi nhm y : Ta c

Tng t Ta c xc sut bng 1) ( Ly ra 1 sn phm t 2 chnh phm th chc chn c chnh phm nn

(Ly 1 sn phm t 2 sn phm trong c mt chnh phm v mt ph phm nn xc sut bng 1/2) ( Ly t 2 ph phm ra 1 sn phm th khng th c chnh phm) Vy P(A)=(1/240).(160.1+40.1/2+3.1/2+8.0)=196/240=0,8167 V d 3. C hai l g ging. L I gm 15 con, trong c 3 con trng. L II gm 20 con, trong c 4 con trng. Mt con t l II nhy sang l I. T l I ta bt ngu nhin ra 1 con. Tm xc sut con g bt ra l g trng.

Li gii. Php th gm 2 bc. Bc 1: con g nhy sang. Bc 2: con g bt ra. Bin c A={Con g bt ra l g trng}. Bc mt c 2 trng hp c th, nn nhm y c 2 bin c B v , trong B={Con g nhy t l II l g trng}. Ta c

(Bt ra 1 con t l I, m l I c 16 con trong c 4 trng). (L I by gi c 16 con, trong c 3 trng). P(A) = 0,2.4/16 + 0,8.3/16 = 0,2 V d 4. Mt hp c 10 qu bng bn, trong c 6 qu cn mi. Hm qua nhm tp ly ra 3 qu chi, sau tr li vo hp. Hm nay nhm tp li ly ra 3 qu. Tm xc sut 3 qu bng ly ra hm nay u l bng mi. Li gii. y php th gm 2 bc: Hm qua ly ra 3 qu v hm nay ly ra 3 qu. Bin c A={Ba qu bng bn ly ra hm nay l mi}. Do nhm y gm 4 trng hp xy ra bc 1(Ba qu ly ra hm qua). Gi Ta c ={3 qu bng ly ra hm qua l mi}, i=0,1,2,3. (Cc xc sut ny c tnh theo c in).

Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c: