KINH T HC V M

CHNG I KHI QUT V KINH T V M

Thi lng
S gi l thuyt : 30 Lm bi tp trn lp : 10 T hc : 5 1 bi kim tra gia k trn lp

Mc tiu mn hc
Nm c mc tiu, nguyn l c bn, ni dung nghin cu. Nm c cc khi nim v cc cng thc tnh ton cc ch tiu kinh t v m c bn Hiu cch thc vn hnh ca chnh sch ti kha v tin t ca Chnh ph tc ng n cc ch s v m, th hin trn s . Hiu chc nng v hot ng ca ngn hng (bao gm NH trung ng v NH thng mi) Hiu nguyn nhn gy ra lm pht, tht nghip, thm ht ngan sch v thm ht cn cn thng mi v cc gii php iu chnh. Hiu chu k kinh doanh v tng trng kinh t

Mc tiu mn hc
Xy dng k nng : - Phn tch cc hin tng kinh t v m c bn, mi quan h gia cc hin tng v tc ng ca cng c chnh sch kinh t n kinh t v m th hin trn m hnh. - Cung cp cc k nng t duy v l gii cc vn v m trn thc t : tng trng, lm pht, tht nghip, t gi, li sut, thm ht ngn sch v cn cn thng mi, nhp siu, gi kch cu, bnh n gi - Cung cp kin thc v kh nng t nghin cu cc bo co kinh t.

Ti liu tham kho

1. Bi ging KTVM. HQG H ni, 2002 Phm Quang Vinh ch bin. 2. Kinh t hc - David Begg, Stanley Fisher v Rudiger Dornbusch. Nh xut bn gi dc, 1995. 3. Economics : Principles, Problems and Policies McConnell, Campbell and Stanley Brue

Ti liu tham kho

4. Kinh t hc Samuelson P v Nordhalls W.Nxb Thng k, 2002 Nguyn l kinh t hc v m Trng H kinh t quc dn NXB Lao ng, 2007 Bi tp kinh t v m - Trng H kinh t quc dn NXB Lao ng, 2007 Kinh t ngy nay Brandley R. Schiler Nxb HQG, 2001

nh gi kt qu mn hc
Chuyn cn v bi tp c nhn Kim tra gia k Thi cui k Tng s 20% 20% 60% 100%

NI DUNG CHNG I
MC TIU V CNG C
1. Mc tiu 2. Cng c

CCH TNH SN LNG QUC GIA 1. Dng lun chuyn ca nn kinh t

2. Cc phng php tnh sn lng

Yu cu
c thm CH1 (hc liu 1) v CH20(hc liu 2) v CH5 (hc liu 3) Lm bi tp s 1

KHI NIM
Kinh t hc b mn khoa hc nghin cu xem x hi s dng ngun ti nguyn c hn sn xut ra cc hng ha, dch v v phn phi cho cc thnh vin trong x hi nh th no. Hm : ngun lc l c hn Phi s dng ngun lc c hiu qu Kinh t hc vi m v v m : 2 ni dung quan trng, b tr cho nhau, gn b vi nhau, nhng khc bit v i tng, cch tip cn
KTH vi m : nghin cu hnh vi ca cc thnh vin trong nn kinh t : h gia nh, doanh nghip, th trng KTH v m : nghin cu cc hin tng ca ton b nn kinh t : tng trng, lm pht, tht nghip, thng mi v ti chnh quc t, chu k kinh doanh Nghin cu s vn ng v cc mi tng tc kinh t ch yu ca mt nn kinh t.

MC TIU V PHNG PHP

KTH v m nghin cu s la chn ca mi quc gia trc nhng vn kinh t - x hi c bn : tng trng, lm pht, tht nghip, xut nhp khu, phn phi thu nhp, phn phi ngun lc Cung cp kin thc, phng php phn tch kinh t v nm c cng c iu tit nhm hng nn kinh t vo mc tiu chn. Phng php : (Walras L.)
Cn bng tng th (cn bng tng th tt c cc th trng : hng ha v dch v, tin t, lao ng) Phn tch thng k, m hnh kinh t (m hnh kinh t lng c v tr quan trng)

I TNG NGHIN CU
Hp en kinh t Yu t u vo :
Mi trng, dn s, chin tranh. Tc ng chnh sch ca nh nc. iu chnh hp en hng vo mc tiu nh

u ra : sn lng, vic lm, gi c, xut nhp khu. iu chnh vn hnh ca hp en qua tng cung AS v tng cu AD

HOT NG CA HP EN
Tng cung AS (Aggregate Supply), tng cu AD (Aggregate Demand)
- AS - tng khi lng sn phm m cc hng kinh doanh sn xut v bn ra tng ng mc gi c v chi ph nht nh mc sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng ti a, tng ng vi ton dng yu t sn xut. Ngoi gi c, ch ph, cc yu t sn xut : lao ng, vn, ti nguyn v cng ngh tc ng n AS. - AD tng sn phm hng ha v dch v m cc tc nhn trong nn kinh t tiu th tng ng vi mc thu nhp v gi c. - AS, AD cn ph thuc vo cc chnh sch ca Chnh ph : thu, tr cp, li sut, tin t

BIU TNG CUNG, TNG CU

P ASlr ASsr E

AD

TNG CU AD
Cu thnh tng cu : AD = C + I +G + X M (C consumption, I Investment, G Governtment, X Export , M Import) Tng cu dc xung : khi gi gim, hiu ng ca ci cho thy thu nhp nhiu hn, dn s tiu dng nhiu hn, C dn n AD . Theo hiu ng li sut :cu tin gim v gi gim, h G chuyn mt phn tin thnh ti sn sinh li, nhu cu cho vay tng, li sut gim, u t tng I dn n AD . Vn hnh trn m hnh : Gi thay i, AD dch chuyn dc ng cu. Tiu dng C v G, u t I v xut khu X thay i lm di chuyn AD sang phi/tri. Thu tng, nhp khu tng lm di chuyn AD sang tri.

TNG CUNG AS
M t quan h gia tng sn phm vi mc gi chung cho, cc bin khc gi nguyn. ASsr (short run) ngn hn dc ln (gi gim th ct gim sn xut, do gi u vo gim chm hn lm tng chi ph, gim doanh thu). Cch gii thch khc : gi u ra gim chm hn u vo, nn ng mc cao, hng ha bn ra chm, DN gim doanh thu, buc phi ct gim sn lng, vic lm. ASlr (long run) khi gi u vo, u ra iu chnh hon ton. Mc tng/gim nh nhau, DN vn gi sn lng nh c. Trn m hnh, ASlr di hn thng ng mc sn lng tim nng do ngun lc u vo c hn, khi sn lng t mc tim nng, gi tng khng c tc ng lm tng sn lng. Dch chuyn dc ng cung do tc ng thay i gi P. Thay i cc nhn t khc ngoi gi lm ng AS dch chuyn : tng lng, tng cung ng vn, nguyn liu, thay i cng ngh, tng gi sn phm bn ra

CNG C CHNH SCH

Chnh sch ti kha : chnh sch thu, chi tiu ca chnh ph. Chi tiu cng nh hng n tng cu AD v sn lng, thu tc ng n thu nhp lm tng/gim chi tiu, tc ng n tng cu, u t v sn lng Chnh sch tin t : cung tin v li sut (qun l tin t, tn dng, ngn hng) Chnh sch thu nhp : trc tip kim sot lng v gi, nu gin tip thng qua chnh sch ti kha v tin t tn km hn, lu c tc ng hn. Chnh sch kinh t i ngoi : t gi hi oi, bo h, thu quan, cn cn thanh ton.

MC TIU CHNH SCH KINH T V M

3 mc tiu ch yu : n nh, tng trng kinh t v cng bng x hi
- n nh : gii quyt tt vn tng trng, lm pht, tht nghip, suy thoi trong k ngn hn. - Tng trng kinh t : cn gii quyt nhng vn di hn lin quan n kinh t. - Cng bng : gii quyt ng thi c vn kinh t v x hi.

MC TIU C TH
Sn lng : tng trng cao (t mc tim nng) v bn vng Vic lm : vic lm nhiu, tht nghip thp (mc tht nghip t nhin). n nh gi c : gim v kim sot lm pht. Kinh t i ngoi : n nh t gi hi oi, cn bng cn cn thanh ton Phn phi cng bng. Cc mc tiu b sung cho nhau, hoc c th mu thun nhau, chnh ph cn la chn th t u tin hoc nh i.

GDP Tng sn phm quc ni (trong nc) Gross Domestic Product

Gi tr th trng ca tt c hng ha, dch v cui cng c sn xut ra trong mt nc trong mt thi k nht nh (thng l 1 nm). GDP khng tnh :
Sn phm t cung t cp Sn phm trung gian Sn phm sn xut ngoi lnh th Sn phm nm trc

CC DNG LUN CHUYN CA NN KINH T

Chi tiu CP Hng ha, dch v chi tiu
DOANH NGHIP

Xut khu

u t

H gia nh Ngn hng

Thu nhp h G Tit kim Cung cp nhn t sn xut Thu Nhp khu

Chnh ph Nc ngoi

ng nht thc KTVM

Kinh t gin n GDP = C + I GDP C = I S=I S saving Tit kim = u t Kinh t c chnh ph, ng ca GDP= C + I + G (GDP C T) + ( T- G) = I Sp + Sg = I Tng tit kim quc gia = u t quc gia

ng nht thc KTVM

Kinh t m ca (GDP C T) + ( T- G) + (M X) = I Sp + Sg + Sf =I Tng tit kim quc gia v chuyn t nc ngoi = tng u t Quan h gia 3 khu vc kinh t : t nhn, chnh ph, nc ngoi (I Sp ) = (T- G) + (M X) T s lung lun chuyn S+ T+M=I+G+X

3 phng php o lng GDP

Phng php thu nhp GDP = w + r + i + Pr () + Ti Phng php chi tiu GDP = C + I + G + NX (X-M) Phng php gi tr gia tng GDP = VAi

o lng GDP
w (wage) thu nhp t lng tr cho nhn t sn xut r (rent) thu nhp cho thu nh xng i (interest) thu nhp t li sut cho vay vn Pr(profit) Thu nhp t li nhun Ti (indirect tax) Thu thu gin thu ca chnh ph (thu GTGT VAT v thu tiu th c bit)

o lng GDP
C chi tiu ca ngi dn I - Chi u t ca doanh nghip (khng k u t ti chnh) G Chi tiu ca chnh ph (khng k chi tr cp) NX Xut khu rng
Thng d NX > 0 Thm ht NX < 0

Khon chi khng thuc GDP

Hng ha v dch v trung gian Ti sn ti chnh Tr cp, vin tr

GNP Tng thu nhp quc gia

GNP = GDP NIFA (net income from asset) NIFA thu nhp nhn t rng t nc ngoi NIFA thu nhp ca ngi Vit nam t cc nhn t nc ngoi tr thu nhp ca ngi nc ngoi t cc nhn t Vit nam (c th >0 hoc <0)

CC CH TIU KHC
Thu nhp ti sn rng Thu nhp ti sn rng

Khu hao Thu gin thu NNP

Thu trc thu tr cp

GNP
GNP

NX G I GDP

Y YD C

Tnh GDP
GDPn (nominal) danh ngha - s dng gi hin hnh tnh GDPr (real) thc t - tnh theo gi nm gc ( th d quy GDP2010 theo gi nm gc 2000) Tnh tc tng trng GDP theo gi thc t : GDPr2011 - GDPr2010 g2011 = x 100% GDPr2010

Tnh ch s iu chnh GDP

DGDP
2010

(Deflator) =

GDPn2010 x 100% GDPr2010

Tnh tc gia tng gi

DGDP2011 - DGDP2010 g p2011 = DGDP2010 x 100%

HN CH CA CH TIU GDP
B st sn lng t cung, t cp Khng tnh chi ph mi trng Khng tnh li ch ca thi gian ngh ngi, Khng tnh vn cng bng (tip cn cng nh hng th, hay tui th) Khng tnh khu vc kinh t phi chnh thc (kinh t ngm)

Ch s lm pht CPI
Khi nim gi hng ha tiu dng : gm cc hng ha tiu dng m mt ngi bnh thng mua. C th bao gm c hng ha sn xut trong nc v xut khu. Tnh CPI nm t bng chi ph gi hng tnh theo gi nm t chia cho chi ph gi hng tnh theo gi nm c s (nm iu tra gi hng) (Pti x Qoi) CPI t = (Poi x Qoi) x 100%

Tnh tc tng gi CPI (lm pht)

T l lm pht l tc tng CPI nm t so vi CPI nm t-1 CPI2011 - CPI2010 CPI2011 = x 100% CPI2010

Hn ch ca CPI
Khng phn nh c thay i cht lng hng ha (gi tng c th do cht lng ch khng ch s lng). Khng phn nh s xut hin ca hng ha mi (DVD thay cho VCD) Phng i t l lm pht do khng tnh n s thay th hng ha (thay tht g bng tht ln khi tht g tng gi, do ch ph khng tng) Khng tnh thay i c cu gi hng ha so vi nm c s.

CHNG II L THUYT XC NH SN LNG

1. M hnh Keynes 2. Cc hm
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Tiu dng C Tit kim S u t I Hm thu T Hm nhp khu M Hm tng cu AD

3. Xc nh sn lng
Phng php sn lng tiu dng Phng php lung lun chuyn bm vo v r r

Yu cu
c thm CH2 (hc liu 1) v CH21(hc liu 2) v CH23 (hc liu 4) Lm bi tp s 2

M hnh Keynes
Gi nh : gi v lng khng i trong k ngn hn ng cung AS khng i, ch AD dch chuyn quyt nh sn lng cn bng. Cc nh kinh t u thng nht v cc nhn t tc ng tng cu, nhng trng phi trng tin nhn mnh nhn t tin t v trng cung nhn mnh yu t tng trng. Quan im ca Keynes l xem xt tc ng ca cc yu t v chnh sch khc nhau trong (thi k) khc nhau (di hn v ngn hn)

Hm tiu dng
M hnh nn kinh t n gin (khng c chnh ph) AD = C + I Tiu dng h G ph thuc thu nhp thng xuyn Tiu dng ph thuc vo thu nhp dng i (bao gm c ti sn) Khi thu nhp tng ln, tiu dng cng tng nhng tng mc t hn MPC (Maginal Propensity to consume) xu hng tiu dng cn bin 0<MPC<1 C MPC = Y

Hm tiu dng
C = + MPC.Y Trong Tiu dng khng ph thuc thu nhp (mc ti thiu) Y thu nhp kh dng Yd S = Y C S/Y = 1 MPC MPS = 1 - MPC

 th hm tiu dng
c
450 Y>C C = + MPC.Y V (Yv = C) Y<C Y - Yv

S = - +MPS.Y

Hm u t
I = + MPI.Y MPI Xu hng u t cn bin MPI = MPS li tc cn bng MPI > MPS, li tc tng li sut tng(tin tp trung trong ngn hng) MPI < MPS li tc u t thp (tin tr di dng ti sn, ca ci)

Hm tng cu
AD = C + I = + + MPC.Y + MPI.Y = ( + ) + (MPC+ MPI)Y Sn lng cn bng khi : AD = Y 1 Y0 = x( + ) = m x( + ) 1 - ( MPC+MPI) m s nhn chi tiu/s nhn ca tng cu, xc nh s thay i sn lng khi thay i chi tiu ti thiu. Tc ng ca chnh sch ln sn lng khuych i thng qua m. m>1 v (MPC+ MPI)<1 Trong k suy thoi, tc ng khuych i l rt ln. Khi sn lng t gn mc tim nng, tc ng s nh.

 ngha ca m
450 AD AD2 AD1

AD

Y = m. AD

Nn kinh t c chnh ph
AD = C + I + G G c n nh, khng ph thuc sn lng. AD = C + I + G = ( + + ) + (MPC+ MPI)Y Sn lng cn bng 1 Y0= x( + + ) =mx(++) 1 - ( MPC+MPI) Khi kinh t suy thoi, tiu dng v u t t nhn suy gim, Chnh ph phi ch ng tng chi tiu kch cu. Tc ng G n sn lng cng c khuych i qua s nhn m

Nn kinh t c chnh ph v hm thu T=tY

G khng ph thuc sn lng nhng thu T li ph thuc thu nhp T=tY. Thu nhp lc ny phi tr i thu Y tY Tiu dng ph thuc thu nhp tr thu : C = + MPC.(Y- tY) = + MPC.(1-t)Y Khi Y = AD = C + I + G = ( + + ) + (MPC(1-t)+ MPI)Y Sn lng cn bng 1 Y0= x( + + ) =mx (++) = m x D 1 - MPC(1-t)-MPI m l s nhn tng cu trong trng hp c thu, m< m. C, I, G c cng s nhn, do , tc ng ca chi tiu chnh ph G n sn lng Y cng tng t nh chi tiu C v u t I t nhn

Nn kinh t m
AD = C + I + G + X M X khng ph thuc thu nhp trong nc, m ph thuc thu nhp nc nhp khu. Song nhp khu th ph thuc thu nhp trong nc M = MPMxY MPM xu hng nhp khu cn bin Khi Y0 = AD = C + I + G + X - M= ( + + + X) + MPC(1-t)Y + MPI.Y MPM.Y 1 Y0= x( + + +X) =mx (++ +X) =m x D 1 - MPC(1-t)-MPI +MPM Nu MPM cng ln m cng nh. Tc l tng hng ha nhp khu c th lm gim sn lng trong nc, nh hng xu n vic lm, thu nhp v tng tht nghip.

Xc nh sn lng cn bng tnh theo lung r r v bm vo

T chng I, lung lun chuyn ca nn kinh t (I S ) = (T- G) + (M X) S+T+M=I+G+X
BM VO RT RA

CC DNG LUN CHUYN CA NN KINH T

Chi tiu CP G Xut khuX Hng ha, dch v chi tiu
DOANH NGHIP

u t I

H gia nh

Thu nhp h G Tit kim S Cung cp nhn t sn xut Ngn hng

Thu T
Nhp khu M

Chnh ph Nc ngoi

 th ca nn kinh t m
T ng nht thc ca nn kinh t

S+T+M I+G+X E im cn bng ca nn KT m

Y0

Nghch l ca tit kim

Nu tt c mi ngi u c gng tng tit kim s dn n gim tit kim. V sao vy ? 1 1

Y0 =
1 - MPC

x ( + ) =
MPS

x ( + )

Nu tng tit kim, gim tiu dng 1 lng C, sn lng s gim, thu nhp gim, do tch ly s gim.

Y =-

C
MPS

Nghch l ca tit kim

Mt mt tng tit kim tng ngun lc cho u t li thc y tng trng.
Y = I
1- MPC-MPI

Nh vy tng tit kim nh hng n c C v I, gim C, tng I. Nu gim C t hn tng I th sn lng c li. Nu gim C nhiu hn tng I th sn lng thit. C nhiu kin cho rng khi kinh t ton dng, tng tit kim s cng c nhiu iu kin tng u t tng sn lng. Nhng khi kinh t suy thoi, tng tit kim s lm sn lng, vic lm v thu nhp gim, do , gii php tt hn l tng tiu dng. iu ny c kim chng

Chng III Chnh sch ti kha v ngoi thng

1. Chnh sch ti kha:
1.1. Chnh ph trong dng lun chuyn 1.2. Chnh sch ti kha

2. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha n sn lng cn bng

2.1. Cc gi nh 2.2. Cc tc ng

3. Cc m hnh chnh sch ti kha

3.1. CSTK t ng n nh 3.2. CSTK ch ng 3.3. Ngn sch ca chnh ph

Chng III Chnh sch ti kha v ngoi thng

4. Chnh sch ngoi thng
4.1. Xut khu v nhp khu 4.2. Xc nh sn lng cn bng

Yu cu
c thm CH3 (hc liu 1) v CH22(hc liu 2) v CH25 (hc liu 4) Lm bi tp s 3

1. Chnh sch ti kha

nh ngha : Chnh sch thu T v chi tiu cng G c Chnh ph s dng iu tit cc ch tiu ca nn kinh t.
Chi tiu cng G l thnh phn quan trng ca tng cu AD. Thu tc ng n thu nhp, tiu dng, tch ly h gia nh v u t, thu nhp ca doanh nghip

Chnh ph trong dng lun chuyn

2. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha n sn lng cn bng

1. Gi nh : Y>Y tim nng (Yp) Lm pht cao. CSTK c 2 cch (gim G hoc tngT) G AD Y P (u) T C(I,NX) AD Y P (u) 2. Gi nh : Y<Y tim nng (Yp) Tht nghip cao. G AD Y u (P) T C(I,NX) AD Y u (P)

Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha n sn lng cn bng trn th

AD 450 AD3 E2 AD2 AD1

E1

Y1

Y*

Y2

3.1. CSTK t ng n nh
Bn thn n c tc ng t hn ch dao ng ca chu k kinh doanh
nh thu ly tin : nh mc thu cao hn vo i tng c thu nhp cao hn.Khi kinh t suy thoi thu nhp ngi giu thp i, mc thu thu ly tin t ng gim d Chnh ph cha thc hin gim thu chng suy thoi. Nh kch cu tiu dng, u t, kch thch sn xut v tng sn lng.Ngc li, khi kinh t tng trng nng, thu ly tin t ng tng, c tc ng gim bt tiu dng v u t, tng cu gim dn n sn lng gim bt. Tr cp tht nghip : tr cp tng khi kinh t suy thoi, lm chi chnh ph t ng tng, kch thch tiu dng C, tng cu AD v sn lng Y. Ngc li, ct gim tr cp khi kinh t, sn lng tng qu mc tim nng, s lm gim tiu dng, gim tng cu v iu chnh sn lng gim tr li sn lng tim nng

3.2. CSTK ch ng
Chnh sch ti kha m rng cn gi l CSTK ni lng (tng G hoc gim T) nhm kch thch tng cu v tng sn lng cn bng. Chnh sch ti kha tht cht gim G hoc tng T nhm ct gim tng cu kim ch lm pht, n nh nn kinh t.

Biu din trn th CSTK m rng

AD
450 AD3 AD2 E AD1 G Y Y1

Y*

3.3. CSTK m rng

Tng chi tiu chnh ph G, ng tng cu dch chuyn ln trn (AD1 ln AD2), sn lng Y1tng ln mc sn lng tim nng Y*, trong Y = m. G Phng n khc, chnh ph c th gim thu sut, lm tng thu nhp tiu dng, tng tiu dng, ng tng cu AD1xoay ln trn (sang tri) n AD3, ct ng phn gic 450ti im E, tng ng vi mc sn lng tim nng Y*.

CSTK tht cht Biu din trn th

AD
450 AD1 AD2 G E AD3

Y*

Y1

3.4. CSTK tht cht

Chu trnh ngc li vi CSTK m rng, chi tiu ngn sch gim G khi nn kinh t tng trng nng Y1>Y*, ng AD1dch chuyn xung di, ct ng phn gic ti E tng ng vi mc sn lng tim nng Y*, sn lng gim 1 lng Y>G Phng n khc, thu sut s tng lm gim thu nhp, tiu dng, u t v tng cu. ng AD1xoay xung di ti AD3, v sn lng cng gim ti mc sn lng tim nng Y*.

Thm ht ngn sch Khi nim

B=TG B>0 Ngn sch c thng d B=0 Ngn sch cn bng B<0 Ngn sch thm ht Ngn sch cn bng khng hn l bo chng v CSTK tt. Bn thn chu k kinh doanh cng tc ng n cn bng ngn sch. Thu ngn sch tng khi kinh t phn thnh, gim khi kinh t suy thoi. Ngc li, chi ngn sch tng khi kinh t suy thoi v gim trong thi k phn thnh. Ni cch khc, thm ht ngn sch trm trng hn trong thi k suy thoi. nh gi tc ng ca CSTK n thm ht ngn sch, ngi ta nghin cu CSTK trong thi k kinh t hot ng mc tim nng. 3 khi nim thm ht ngn sch :
THNS thc t : thm ht khi chi vt thu trong mt thi k nht nh THNS c cu : thm ht ch ng trong trng hp nn kinh t mc sn lng tim nng. THNS chu k : thm ht b ng do s vn ng nn kinh t theo chu k

CSTK v Ngn sch chnh ph

Bn thn cn cn ngn sch khng phi l mt ch bo tt ca CSTK. L do l
Cn cn ngn sch chu tc ng chu k kinh t. Kinh t suy thoi (sn lng thp hn mc tim nng, ngn sch xu i do thu gim, chi tng, thm ht tng), kinh t phn thnh (sn lng cao hn mc tim nng, ngn sch tt ln do thu tng, chi gim).

CSTK cng chiu

CSTK cng chiu : khi chnh ph lun t mc tiu cn bng ngn sch d sn lng thay i th no. C 3 trng hp 1. Y<Y*, T tng v G cng tng, AD dch sang phi y sn lng v mc tim nng, nhng T gim, G gim th AD dch sang tri, th Y li gim tip, lm thm ht ngn sch gia tng. 2. Y>Y*, thc hin T gim, G gim s tt hn v y AD xung, Y tr v mc tim nng, kim ch c lm pht, tht nghip tr v mc t nhin 3. Y=Y*, tng T, tng G s lm tng lm pht, gim T, gim G th lm tng tht nghip KL : vi mc tiu n nh kinh t v m th cn bng ngn sch khng phi khi no cng tt

CSTK ngc chiu

CSTK ngc chiu : Chnh ph t mc tiu lun gi sn lng mc tim nng v vic lm y , CP phi thc hin CSTK ngc chiu. Khi KT suy thoi, CP phi tng chi tiu, hoc gim thu, hoc kt hp c hai lm thm ht ngn sch gia tng, l thm ht c cu. C 3 cch 1. Thay i G, gi nguyn T, AD s tng mt lng AD=mxG 2. Gim thu, gi nguyn G, thu nhp tng T tiu dng s tng C=MPCxT, tng cu AD tng = C. Vy vi mc tng AD cn thit, lng thu cn gim l T= AD/MPC 3. Thay i c T v G: AD = G - MPCxT Vi d kin G, AD, s tm c T cn thit, v ngc li

Thm ht ngn sch v thoi gim u t t nhn

Khi tng G hoc gim T, sn lng s tng theo h s nhn m. Nhu cu u t tng theo thu nhp MPIxY, nhng cung tin gii hn lm li sut vay u t tng ln, u t nhn I s thoi gim. Kt qu l phn thu nhp Y tng do chnh ph tng chi tiu kch cu c th b gim. KL : hn ch tc ng tng chi ngn sch G n I v Y, cn kt hp chnh sch tin t.

Ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch

1. Vay ngn hng TW 2. Vay cc ngn hng thng mi. 3. Vay tin t khu vc phi ngn hng 4. Vay tin t nc ngoi.

Vay tin ngn hng TW

Tng ng vi to tin c s. S to tin nhiu hn cu tin dn n d tha cung tin trong lu thng v sc p lm pht. Ti tr thm ht bng in tin l nguyn nhn trc tip gy lm pht.

Vay tin ngoi ngn hng

Chnh ph vay dn (bng tri phiu, tr n sau) khng tng lng tin trong lu thng v sc p lm pht. Nu t n qu ln cng l p lc lm pht trong tng lai. Chnh ph t tiu nhiu, dn s phi tiu t i. Khu vc t nhn tip cn tn dng kh khn hn v li sut tng ln (hin tng ln t khu vc t nhn). Trong nn kinh t lm pht cao, li sut tri phiu chnh ph gim gi tr thc. Ngi dn s mt nim tin.

Vay tin nc ngoi.

Bng 2 cch :
Pht hnh tri phiu nc ngoi Gim d tr ngoi t quc gia.Trong trng hp ny, d tr ch c hn. Khi t nhn nhn thy kh nng Chnh ph can thip vo th trng ngoi hi yu i, cu ngoi hi tng, lm tng t gi, ng ni t mt gi mnh, gy lm pht. Cc nc ang pht trin khi vay b p thm ht mt kh nng tr n dn n kh khn c ti tr hoc vay vn nc ngoi

Kt lun
Do cc nguy c : lm pht, ln t khu vc t nhn, tng t gi dn n lm pht, thm ht ngn sch cn kim sot trong gii hn cho php. Cn bng ngn sch khng phi l gii php ti u. V nh vy s v hiu ha c ch t ng n nh ca CSTK : khi kinh t suy thoi, thu gim, trong khi nhiu khon chi chnh ph t ng tng (tr cp) gy thm ht chu k. Nu CP gim chi, tng thu cn bng ngn sch, s ph v c ch t n nh, lm suy thoi thm trm trng.

Cc vn ca CSTK
1. Tnh bt nh : do gi tr ca s nhn tng cu m, m,m, MPC, MPI, MPM khng th chc chn, m ch c th cn c vo cc thng s qu kh. S sai lch ny dn n s sai lch trong cc quyt nh CSTK ca Chnh ph 2. tr : cn c thi gian t lc tnh hnh kinh t c nhn dng v quyt nh a ra mt chnh sch cn thit, khi tnh hnh c th thay i. V li mt thi gian t lc chnh sch c thc thi n lc chnh sch c tc ng

BI TP CSTK
Tnh s nhn thu mt AD = + MPC.Yd+ I + G Yd = Y T AD = + MPC.Y+ I + G - MPC.T = Y0
+I+G
1- MPC

MPC

Y0 =

+
1- MPC

xT

mt =Y/ T = - MPC/(1- MPC)

Bi tp 1
MPC = 0,8 Yp = 1200 Y01 = 1000 a. Mun Y02 = 1200 G = ? Y = mxG, m = 1/(1-MPC) = 1/(1-0,8) = 5 G = (1200 1000)/5 = 40 b. Mun Y02 = 1200 T = ? Y = mtxT mt = - MPC/(1- MPC) = 4 T = - (1200 1000)/4 = - 50 c. B khng i khi G = T Y = mxG - mtxT = 5G - 4G = G = 200

Biu din trn th

AD
450 AD3 AD2 E AD1 G = 40 Y=200 Y1=1000

Y*=1200

Bi tp 2
MPC = 0,8; t = 1/3; = I =100; G = 500 a. C = + MPCxY = 100 +0,8Y b. AD = AE = + MPC.Y+ I + G = 700 +0,8Y +I+G c. Y0 = = 1500 1- MPC(1-t) d. T = txY0 = 1/3 x (1500) = 500 = G, B=T-G =0 Ngn sch cn bng Nu G = 200, t = 1/6 e. Y0 = 400/(1-0,8(1-1/6))=1200 g.Thay i thu thu T = 1/3x1500 1/6x1200 = 300 Thu thu c l 200 = G = 200. Ngn sch vn cn bng. y l CSTK cng chiu. Ngha l ngn sch v thu cng gim 1 lng T = G = 300 Kim nh m = 1 ? Y = mx G, Y=1500 1200 = 300 = G

Bi tp 3
a. b. c. d. e. f. Giao dch c nh hng n GDP H gia nh mua t lnh mi H gia nh mua nh mi Hng Ford bn xe hi t hng tn kho H ni thay mi h thng n chiu sng Hng Hona m rng nh my Vnh Phuc Chnh ph tng tr cp

p n bi 3
a. C tng b. I tng c. GDP khng i do l hng tnh vo GDP nm trc d. G tng e. I tng f. tr cp khng tnh vo GDP (chuyn giao thu nhp t h ny sang h khc)

Bi 4
Nm GDPn danh ngha GDPr thc t 2002 536 313 2003 606 336 GDPn nm 2003 tng bao nhiu % so vi nm trc ? GDPr nm 2003 tng bao nhiu % so vi nm trc ? Tc tng no ln hn ? V sao ? Mc gi chung tng bao nhiu % ?

p n bi 4
(GDPn2003 - GDPn2002)/ GDPn2002x 100% = 13% (GDPr2003 - GDPr2002)/ GDPr2002x 100% = 7,35% Mc gi chung D2002 = GDPn2002/ GDPr2002 = 171,2 D2003 = GDPn2003/ GDPr2003 = 180,3 Tc tng D = ((180,3 171,2)/171,2)x 100% = 5,3% GDPn tng nhanh hn GDPr v sn lng tng c bao gm c yu t gi tng. GDPr khng tnh yu t tng gi

Bi 5
Gi s nn kinh t ang trng thi cn bng di hn, ton dng ngun lc. Dng m hnh AS-AD gii thch tc ng sau y n sn lng, mc gi ngn hn v di hn
Th trng chng khon st gim mnh lm gim ti sn ca cc h gia nh Chnh ph tng chi tiu cho quc phng Sng kin cng ngh mi lm tng nng sut Suy thoi kinh t th gii lm ngi nc ngoi t mua hng Vit nam xut khu

p n bi 5
Ngn hn : sc gim cu, gim gi AD v AS dch chuyn sang tri, P gim, Y gim. Di hn: gi hon ton iu chnh u vo, u ra, sn lng tr v mc tim nng c, gi gim. G tng lm AD dch sang phi, gi tng, sn lng tng, AS ngn hn dch sang phi. Di hn : AS tr v mc SL tim nng, ch gi tng. AS dch sang phi lm gi gim, sn lng tng. Di hn : sn lng dng mc tim nng mi, gi tip tc gim. Tng t cu 1.

p n bi 5
P AS

E1

E2 AD1 AD2 Y2 Yp Y

Bi 6
Dng m hnh AS-AD ngn hn gii thch tc ng sau y n sn lng, mc gi ngn hn v di hn
Cc nh u t lc quan v trin vng KT Gi du th gii tng mnh Gim thu u vo nhp khu Tng thu hng tiu dng nhp khu Gim thu thu nhp c nhn H gia nh tit kim nhiu hn do lo ngi v tng lai

p n bi 6
u t tng AD dch sang phi Chi ph u vo sn xut tng AS dch sang tri. Chi ph u vo sn xut gim AS dch sang phi. AD dch sang phi do h gia nh chuyn sang tiu dng hng Vit nam AD dch sang phi do h gia nh c thu nhp sau thu nhiu hn, tiu dng nhiu hn AD dch sang tri do h gia nh tit kim nhiu hn, tiu dng t i.

CHNG IV TH TRNG TIN T - NGN HNG V CHNH SCH TIN T

I. Tin v chc nng ca tin
Lch s pht trin tin t Chc nng ca tin

II. Lch s ra i v pht trin ngn hng III. H thng ngn hng
3.1. Ngn hng thng mi - Khi nim, chc nng - Qu trnh to ra tin gi ca NHTM - 3.2. Ngn hng TW : khi nim, chc nng

CHNG IV
IV. Th trng tin t
Cu tin : khi nim, cu thnh, th, cc yu t nh hng. Cung tin : khi nim, cu thnh, th, cc yu t nh hng. Cn bng th trng tin t.

V. Chnh sch tin t

Khi nim, mc tiu, cng c CSTT m rng CSTT tht cht

CHNG IV Hn hp chnh sch ti kha v tin t

I. M hnh IS-LM
Khi nim Cch xy dng dc Dch chuyn

YU CU
c thm Chng 4 v 5 (Hc liu 1), Chng 23 v 24 (hc liu 2) v Chng 27 (hc liu 4)

Khi nim
Tin : l bt c phng tin g c chp nhn chung trong vic thanh ton ly hng ha, dch v hoc tr n. Chc nng : - Tin l phng tin trao i. - Tin l phng tin ct gi gi tr (trong tnh hnh lm pht, gi tr ca tin gim theo thi gian th chc nng ct gi gi tr ca tin yu th so vi cc ti sn khc). - Tin l n v hch ton tin li.

Lch s pht trin tin t

Tin hng ha : tn ti di hnh thc mt hng ha c gi tr (th d vng, bc) Giai on tin bn v : chnh ph v ngn hng nm gi vai tr cung ng tin. Mt s hng ha c bn vn c dng nh lng trao i ly tin. l Chnh ph c nh gi vng tnh bng ng tin nc h (bn nh vng, bn nh bc.Kh nng cung ng tin ca Chnh ph c hn ch nghim ngt bi yu cu l phi nm gi lng vng c gi tr tng ng trong kho bc. Giai on tin php nh: tin c to ra nh mt php lnh ca nh nc.Bn thn tin khng c gi tr thc, bn v kim loi bin mt.

Phn loi tin

Phn loi cn c vo tnh thanh khon ca tin (mc d dng chuyn ti sn thnh phng tin thanh ton) M0: tin mt (bao gm tin giy v tin xu trong lu hnh) M1 : tin mt M0 v cc khon tin gi khng k hn (c th rt bt k lc no) M2 : bao gm M1 v cc khon tin gi c k hn C cu cc loi tin khng ng nht gia cc quc gia khng ng nht, ph thuc vo trnh pht trin ca h thng ti chnh mi nc

H thng ngn hng v cung tin

H thng ngn hng c 2 cp :
Ngn hng Trung ng c chc nng qun l tin t. Ngn hng thng mi c chc nng kinh doanh tin t.

Tin c s (MB base) tin do ngn hng TW pht hnh, bao gm MB = C + R

C Tin mt (curency) ngoi h thng ngn hng R D tr (reserve) ca cc ngn hng thng mi.

Tin cung ng (MS): MS = C + D

D tin gi

MS >MB Do c ch to tin ca ngn hng thng mi.

C ch to tin ca ngn hng thng mi

Nguyn nhn : do cc ngn hng ch d tr mt phn tin huy ng cn li cho vay, lm tng phng tin thanh ton trong lu thng. S tin huy ng ban u : 1000 S tin cho vay ra ca ngn hng th 1 : 900 (0,9x1000) S tin cho vay ra ca ngn hng th 2 : 810 (0,9x900) ..Tip tc nh vy.. ________________________________________________ Tng cng 10.000 (1000/0.1) Lng tin b sung khng v hn, gim dn. Nh vy, vi 1000 huy ng, NHTM bm thm vo lu thng 10.000 . Lng tin to thm t 1 huy ng c gi l s nhn tin m = 1/r = 1/10% = 10 (theo cng thc tnh tng cp s nhn hu hn li (1-r)I = 1/r2 r (t l d tr) = R/D (d tr/tin gi)

S nhn tin mi quan h gia lng tin c s v mc cung tin

m = MS/MB = (C + D)/(C + R)
= (C/D + 1)/(C/D + R/D) R/D T l d tr thc t, ph thuc vo - T l d tr bt buc do NHTW quy nh - S khng n nh ca tin mt vo/ra buc cc NHTM d tr nhiu hn - S thit hi do tr li sut vay tin khi d tr thiu ht. C/D cng nh th m cng ln V R/D cng nh th m cng ln Trng hp C/D =0 v R/D = (R/D)r T l d tr thc t bng t l d tr bt buc th m = 1/rr

Ngn hng Trung ng

Chc nng :
Ngn hng ca cc NH thng mi : gi d tr, thanh ton v thc hin cho vay cui cng. Ngn hng ca Chnh ph : gi ti khon cho CP, gi tin gi, tin vay ca Kho bc Nh nc, h tr chnh sch ti kha ca chnh ph bng vic mua tri phiu chnh ph. Kim sot mc cung tin thc hin chnh sch tin t nhm n nh v pht trin kinh t H tr, gim st hot ng ca cc th trng ti chnh.

Ngn hng Trung ng

Thc thi chnh sch tin t: iu chnh mc cung tin v t l li sut nhm tc ng vo lng tin c s(B). Trc tip kim sot tn dng. Cng c thc thi :
Th trng m: mua tri phiu CP, a thm tin c s vo th trng, lm tng tin gi, tin cho vay v tng s nhn tin t, tng cung tin (MS) v ngc li, khi NHTW bn tri phiu CP, rt tin khi lu thng, gim MS. Mua hay bn ngoi t trn TT ngoi hi cng tc ng n t gi hi oi v cung tin. NHTM mua hay bn tri phiu th khng c tc ng nu m khng i. Quy nh t l d tr bt buc rr, lm tng hoc gim m, tc ng ngay n MS, rt hiu qu. Nhng rt t khi p dng v nh hng ngay n hot ng kinh doanh ca NHTM. Li sut chit khu : li sut NHTW p dng cho cc khon vay ca NHTM (khi thiu ht d tr do cho vay qu nhiu) Tng l/s chit khu, NHTM vay t hn, c th p ng nhu cu rt tin buc phi tng t l d tr m gim MS gim. Ngc li, gim l/s chit khu s dn n MS tng.

Th trng tin t - Cu tin MD

Cc loi ti sn ti sn :
Tin ( thanh ton giao dch, d phng, u c) Cc ti sn ti chnh khc : tri phiu, c phiu, s tit kim

MDn danh ngha v MDr thc, MDr= MDn/P MDntng khi gi tng. Mc cu tin ph thuc :
thu nhp (thu nhp tng, tiu dng tng, cu tin tng) Li sut (chi ph c hi ca gi tin) : l/s tng, cu tin gim v ngc li

MD = kY hi ; k v h l nhy ca MD i vi thu nhp Y v li sut i.

Cn bng th trng tin t

i MS0

i1 i0 i2 MD M1 M0 M2 M

Cn bng th trng tin t

Cung tin do NHTW kim sot, khng ph thuc vo li sut (ng thng ng) Li sut cn bng ti cung tin ng bng cu tin I0- li sut cn bng vi mc cung tin M0. Gi s li sut mc I1>I0 ti lng tin mi ngi nm gi M1 nh hn lng tin cung ng M0- mi ngi dnh tin mua tri phiu, gi tit kim ly li tiu dng cho tng lai. iu lm cho gi tri phiu tng (v lng tri phiu c hn) v dn n gim li sut. Vic mua tri phiu vn tip din n khi li sut gim ti mc I0 .Trng hp ngc li I2 <I0, - mi ngi mun nm gi lng tin nhiu hn, phi bn tri phiu, rt tit kim lm cho gi tri phiu gim, li sut tng, c tip din nh vy cho n khi li sut t mc I0,.

Chnh sch tin t m rng

NHTW tng cung tin, li sut i gim, u t I tng, dn n tng thu nhp Y
i MS0 MS1

i0 i1 M MD M0 Q M1

Trn h trc tng cu v thu nhp

AD(AE) 450 AD1

AD0 I Y Y0 Y1 Y

Trn h trc gi v sn lng

Gi thit gi khng i, li sut danh ngha v li sut thc bng nhau, gi cng nhc. Tng cu AD chuyn ht sang tng sn lng Y. P

AS

AD0 Y0 Y1

AD1 Y

Yu t quyt nh hiu qu ca CSTT

H s nhy cm(co dn) ca cu tin vi li sut
Nu h s ln, ng MD rt thoi, li sut I s gim rt t, do tc ng n u t, sn lng nh
i MS0 MS1

MD M M

Yu t quyt nh hiu qu ca CSTT

H s nhy cm (co dn) ca u t vi li sut.
Nu h s nh (ngha l u t t nhy cm vi li sut ng u t rt dc), th cung tin tng nh hng rt t n u t v tng cu
i

i0 i1 I I0 I1 I

Yu t quyt nh hiu qu ca CSTT

S nhn chi tiu:
Nu s nhn chi tiu nh, s thay i ca u t tc ng t n tng sn lng Y = mxI m nh khi MPC ln, t ln, MPM ln
450 AD1 AD0 I Y Y

AD

Chnh sch tin t

Ngn hng TW vi t cch l ngn hng ca Chnh ph thc thi chnh sch tin t nhm tc ng n tng trng kinh t v n nh kinh t v m. NHTW kim sot cung tin (bao gm c tin c s v tin gi, chuyn khon, tn dng) thng qua nhng cng c (t l d tr bt buc r, li sut chit khu v mua bn tri phiu chnh ph trn th trng m (OMO) NHTW thc thi CSTT ni lng (m rng) v tht cht.

Chnh sch tin t

MS = mmx MB = C + D 1. T l d tr bt buc rrmm MS 2. Li sut chit khu idL D MS 3. Mua/bn tri phiu CP trn th trng m lm tng/gim lng tin c s MB, v do tng/gim cung tin MS. C ch tc ng ca tin n sn lng v gi c : MSiI, C, XADY

CSTT vi mc tiu n nh kinh t

Y<Y* - p lc suy thoi kinh t Chnh ph thc thi CSTT m rng, MS tng (mua tri phiu trn th trng m, gim t l d tr bt buc, gim li sut chit khu), kt qu l li sut i s gim, u t tng, sn lng tng, iu chnh v hng Y* Y>Y* - kinh t tng trng nng, p lc lm pht. Chnh ph thc thi CSTT tht cht, MS gim ((bn tri phiu trn th trng m, tng t l d tr bt buc, tng li sut chit khu), kt qu l li sut i tng, u t gim, sn lng gim, iu chnh v hng Y*

M hnh IS
AD

450 H trc tng cu sn lng AD2 AD1

i i i1 i2 I I1 I2 I Y1 Y2 u t i1 i2 IS Y1 Y2

Y H trc li sut sn lng

M hnh IS
ng IS phn nh mi quan h gia li sut v thu nhp trong bi cnh th trng hng ha cn bng v chnh sch ti kha khng i. S thay i CSTK lm dch chuyn hay tng dc ca ng IS

AD = Y AD = C + I + G + X M I = mixi C++G+X mi Y0 = 1- MPC(1-t) + mi 1- MPC(1-t) + mi = mxAD mxmixi i = AD/mi 1/(mxmi)xY H s gc ca IS l -1/(mxmi)

 dc IS
S nhn chi tiu m, mi cng ln th h s cng nh, tc ng ca li sut i n Y cng ln, IS rt thoi. Trng hp cc oan : mi=0, u t hon ton c lp vi li sut v IS c dng thng ng. Khi u t rt nhy cm vi li sut mi v cng ln, IS nm ngang.

M hnh LM
i MS i2 B i1 A MD2 MD1 M Y1 Y A B i LM

Mn/P

Y2

M hnh LM
ng LM phn nh mi quan h gia thu nhp v li sut vi mc cung tin nht nh trong bi cnh th trng tin t cn bng. Cu tin t l nghch vi li sut . Cu tin t l thun vi thu nhp. Thu nhp tng t Y1 ln Y2, , cu tin s tng t MD1 ln MD2, im cn bng th trng tin t chuyn t A ln B, li sut tng. ng LM ni 2 im AB.

M hnh LM
MS = MD = kY hi
k : h s quan h gia cu tin v thu nhp h : h s quan h gia cu tin v li sut Y = MS/k +h/kxi i = k/hxY - MS/h H s gc ca LM l k/h. Nu h nh, cu tin t ph thuc li sut th LM rt ln, ng LM rt dc. Nu h ln, h s gc LM s gim, ng LM thoi hn. K = 0 cu tin khng ph thuc thu nhp, h s gc bng 0, LM nm ngang H =0 cu tin khng ph thuc li sut, h s gc v cng ln, ng LM thng ng.

Cn bng ng thi th trng tin t v hng ha

i LM

i0

IS Y

Y0

Cn bng ng thi th trng tin t v hng ha

Y = AD IS (1) MS = MD LM (2)
Giao im E tha mn iu kin ca h phng trnh trn vi mc li sut v sn lng cn bng.

Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho

Ha). Chnh ph tng chi tiu, tng cu tng, sn lng tng v IS chuyn sang phi, li sut tng t i1 ln i2 Hb).Chnh ph gim thu, tc ng tng t, tng cu v sn lng i tng, IS dch chuyn sang phi, li sut tng t i1 ln i2
LM LM i1 i2 IS2 IS1 Y1 a) Y2 Y Y1 Y2 b) IS1 IS2

Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t

Tng/gim cung ng tin lm dch chuyn ng LM sang phi/tri. Trng thi cn bng ca nn kinh t c s di chuyn trn ng IS, thu nhp thay i tng/gim v li sut gim/tng

i LM1 MS i1 i2 A B IS Y LM2

Phi hp CSTT v CSTK

Khi thc hin CSTK m rng, li sut v thu nhp thay i nh th no ? iu ny ph thuc vo mc tiu v CSTT m NHTW thc thi.
a).NHTW gi nguyn mc cung tin : CSTK m rng chuyn IS sang phi, LM khng i, li sut tng v sn lng tng. b).NHTW can thip gi li sut khng i :tng cu lm IS dch chuyn sang phi, gi li sut khng tng, NHTW phi tng cung ng tin lm LM dch chuyn sang phi, m sn lng tng nhiu hn do li sut khng tng lm gim u t c). NHTW can thip gi sn lng khng i.

a) NHTW gi nguyn mc cung tin b) NHTW can thip gi li sut khng i

i

i LM1 LM LM2

i0 IS2 IS1 a) Y b) IS1 Y IS2

c). NHTW can thip gi sn lng khng i

Khi tng chi tiu CP, IS dch chuyn sang phi lm tng li sut v sn lng, nu sn lng vt mc tim nng, NHTW can thip bng chnh sch tin t tht cht (gim cung tin), LM dch chuyn sang tri, tng tip li sut, lm gim u t v gim sn lng v mc v mc c. LM2
i LM1 i3 i2 i1 IS1 Y* Y IS2 Y

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Bi 1:NHTW mua 80 triu USD tri phiu CP trn th trng m. T l d tr bt buc r = 8%. Hy xc nh mc tng cung tin ti a? Ti thiu? Gii: MS = C + D MS = C + D MS ti a khi C=0 MS = D=1/rxMB = 1/r (C+R) S tin NHTM bn tri phiu cho NHTW c gi li lm d tr tng thm, lm tng tin gi t d tr tng thm D = 1/0.08 x 80 =1000 tr.USD MS ti thiu khi tt c tin bn tri phiu c cng chng gi li tin mt, khng gi. Tng cung tin hon ton do tng tin mt MS = C = 80trUSD

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Bi 2 : Gi s nn kinh t cng chng khng gi tin mt. NHTW bn cho NHTM 20 triu tri phiu CP a). Nu NHTM gi ng t l d tr bt buc 10% th mc cung tin v d tr thay i nh th no ? b). Nu NHTW quy nh t l d tr bt buc 8%, NHTM cn d tr di ra 2% d phng, xc nh s thay i ca m v MS Gii : a). NHTM mua tri phiu bng ng thay i d tr R = -20 MS = 1/r x (C+ R) = 1/0.1x(-20)=-200 b).T l d tr = T l d tr bt buc + T l d tr di ra d phng = 8% + 2% = 10% m = 1/10% = 10 MS = 1/r x (C+ R) = 1/0.1x(-20)=-200 Kt qu : c 2 trng hp r v MS nh nhau.

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Bi 3: Th trng hng ha v tin t ca nn kinh t th hin bng cc thng s sau : C = 100 + 0,8Yd G = 100 I = 100 10i T = 0,25Y MD = 80 + 0,2Y 8i MS = 200 Yu cu : a. Xc nh phng trnh IS v LM b. Xc nh thu nhp v li xut cn bng ca nn kinh t Y0, i0 c. Gi s chi tiu CPG tng thm 20 t. Xc nh Y0, i0mi

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Gii: ng IS : Y = AD = C + I + G Y = 750 -25i ng LM : MS = MD Y = 600 +40i Gii h phng trnh IS = LM Y0 = 692; i0= 2,3% G = 20. Gii h phng trnh mi vi AD + G = Y Y = 800 -25i Y0 = 720; i0= 3,1%

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Bi 4 : Nn kinh t vi cc thng s: C = 100 + 0,75Yd G = 100 I = 100 10i +0,2Y T = 50 + 0,2Y MD = 50 + 0,3Y 10i MS = 200 Yu cu : a). Vit phng trnh biu din ng IS, LM. b). Xc nh mc thu nhp v li sut cn bngY0, i0 c). Gi s chi tiu CPG tng thm 20 t. Xc nh Y0, i0mi d).Gi s G khng i nhng NHTW tng cung ng tin t thm 10. Hy xc nh Y0, i0mi e). Nhn xt v tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha v tin t m rng nu trn.

Bi tp C.IV, C.V
Gii : a).ng IS: AD = C + I + G = Y Y = 1312,5 50i (1) ng LM : MD = MS Y = 500 + 33,3i (2) b). Gii h phng trnh (1), (2) ta c Y0 =824,8, i0=9,754 c). G = 10, xc nh li phng trnh IS mi Y = 1362,5 50i Gii h phng trnh ta c Y0 =844,8, i0=10,35 d). MS = 10, xc nh li phng trnh LM mi Y = 533,3 + 33,3i Gii h phng trnh ta c Y0 =844,82, I0=9,35 e). CSTK m rng lm tng thu nhp v tng li sut CSTT m rng lm tng thu nhp v gim li sut

CH.6 THT NGHIP

I.
1. 2. 3.

THT NGHIP V TC NG
Khi nim v cch o lng Cc hn ch Cc tc ng ca tht nghip

II.

LOI HNH V NGUYN NHN THT NGHIP

1.T nhin 2. Tm thi 3. C cu 4. Chu k

III.

CC GII PHP

Khi nim v o lng

Lc lng lao ng : nhng ngi trong tui lao ng, c vic lm hoc cha c vic lm (L) Nhng ngi trong tui lao ng : theo hin php quy nh c ngha v v quyn li lao ng (Vit nam : 15-55t i vi n v 15-60t i vi nam. Ngi tht nghip : ngi trong tui lao ng, hin cha c vic lm.(U) T l tht nghip : t l phn trm gia s ngi tht nghip v tng lc lng lao ng. u = U/L

Phn loi
Theo l do : mt vic, b vic, cha tm c vic (mi gia nhp hoc quay li). Theo ngun gc : tm thi (ang tm vic); c cu (gn vi bin ng c cu kinh t); do thiu cu (gn vi k suy thoi ca chu k kinh doanh tht nghip chu k); do tc ng ca yu t bn ngoi th trng lao ng (n nh mc lng cao hn mc cn bng th trng); tht nghip t nguyn (tm thi v t nguyn); tht nghip t nhin : ti mc cn bng th trng lao ng t l tht nghip khi t c s ton dng lao ng.

Cc yu t nh hng
C cu nhn khu Cch thc t chc lao ng C cu cc loi vic lm S thay i nhu cu lao ng ca cc doanh nghip. Thay i t l tham gia lao ng

Tc ng tiu cc
Gim hiu qu kinh t : khi tht nghip cao, lng ph ngun lc. Tng t nn x hi i vi c nhn, h gia nh : thu nhp thp, nng lc ngh nghip b b qun, sc khe km, bnh tt tng, gim hnh phc gia nh

Tc ng tch cc
T l tht nghip hp l h tr iu chnh c cu kinh t. T l tht nghip t nhin phn nh tnh trng cuc sng kh ln. Theo chu k, tht nghip do thay i vn theo chu k, tn ti tht nghip lm cho hiu qu s dng nhn lc v vn u t cao hn chu k sau.

Gii php
i vi tht nghip chu k : thc hin cc gii php chng suy thoi : CSTK m rng, CSTT m rng lm tng tng cu, sn lng tng dn v pha sn lng tim nng, mc tht nghip chu k tr v vi mc tht nghip t nhin. i vi tht nghip t nhin :thng tng i n nh (4%), Cn c vo nguyn nhn, a ra cc gii php (1) tng cng dch v gii thiu vic lm; (2) tng cng o to v o to li ngun nhn lc; (3) to iu kin di c lao ng thun li; (4) gim thu thu nhp; (5) ct gim tr cp tht nghip; (6) khuyn khch u t t nhn; (7) gim can thip trc tip ca nh nc vo th trng lao ng.

CH7. LM PHT
I.
1. 2. 3.

LM PHT V TC NG
Khi nim v cch o lng Cc mc lm pht Cc tc ng ca tht nghip

II.
1. 2. 3. 4.

NGUYN NHN LM PHT V GII PHP.

Cu ko Chi ph y L thuyt nh lng v tin Cc gii php hn ch lm pht

KHI NIM V PHN LOI

Lm pht l s tng ln lin tc ca mc gi trung bnh theo thi gian. Ch s gi phn nh bin ng so vi ca mc gi chung ca thi k ang xt so vi thi k gc (thng, qu, nm) p1q1 Ip = p0q1 Ip ch s gi, p0 v p1 gi hng ha v dch v thi k gc v thi k nghin cu q1-lng hng ha, dch v thi k nghin cu

Cc ch tiu biu th ch s gi
Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI consumer price Index) ch tiu phn nh bin ng gi c ca chi ph mua mt gi hng ha, dch v in hnh ca mt ngi tiu dng. Ch s gi sn xut (PPI- Producer price Index) l ch s gi bn bun, tc l chi ph mua mt gi hng ha, dch v ca doanh nghip (3 nhm : (1) lng thc, thc phm; (2)sn phm ngnh ch to; (3) sn phm ca ngnh khai khong Ch s gim pht (D) ch tiu phn nh bin ng gi c ca tt c cc loi hng ha v dch v ca nn kinh t, hay ch s iu chnh GDP (deflator) Tc lm pht l ch tiu phn nh tc tng hay gim ca mc gi chung ca thi k ang xt so vi thi k gc

Ip1- Ip0 gp(%) = Ip0

Phn bit lm pht, gim pht, thiu pht

Thuyt lm pht gi c xt gim pht l s gim ca mc gi chung (ngc vi qu trnh lm pht) Thuyt lm pht lu thng tin t xt lm pht l hin tng tng gi do bm qu nhiu tin vo lu thng. Ngc li, vic a tin vo lu thng t hn mc cn thit dn n qu trnh sn xut, lu thng b nght do thiu tin l hin tng thiu pht (lm pht = 0) Thiu pht rt him thy trong nn kinh t th trng hin i do tnh trng thm ht ngn sch phi b p lin min. Do ch tin giy khng cn bn v kim loi Gim pht lun xut hin cng lm pht v l kt qu ca tng hp cc gii php kim ch lm pht. Thiu pht th c hi i vi nn kinh t khi tin ln gi gy ch tc, tr tr qu trnh sn xut l lu thng, tm l gi tin cho vay ly li lm nhiu doanh nghip sn xut thua l, ph sn, tht nghip gia tng.

Phn loi lm pht

Theo quy m lm pht 1 nm
Va phi <10% Phi m : 2-3 con s Siu lm pht >3 con s

Theo di thi gian

Kinh nin : <50% v >3 nm Nghim trng >50% v >3 nm Siu lm pht >200% ko di trn 1 nm

Phn loi lm pht

a). Lm pht cu ko : chnh ph kch cu, dch chuyn tng cu sang phi lm gi tng (nhiu hay t ty thuc dc ca ng tng cung AS, nhiu hn khi AS dc hn) b). Lm pht ph y : st gi hng ha u vo lm chi ph sn xut tng, y tng cung AS sang tri, nu CP theo ui chnh sch n nh sn lng, vic lm, AD dch sang phi lm gi tng lin tc C). Lm pht : lm pht c xu hng gi mc trong nm trc vi tc n nh (), c th d on c lm pht nm sau (lm pht d kin). Mi tnh ton (chi ph, doanh thu, li nhun, thu nhp) u phi tnh ton cn c vo lm pht d kin.

a). Lm pht cu ko b). Lm pht ph y

a)
P P

b)
AS2 AS1 AS1

AD2 AD1 AD2 Y Y* AD1 Y

Quan h lm pht v tin t

Gi nh tc lu thng tin t khng i MxV = PxY = GDPn Nng lc sn xut quyt nh mc sn lng thc t Cung ng tin t quyt nh gi tr sn lng danh ngha. %M + %V = %P + %Y S gia tng cung ng tin t s dn n gia tng gi (% t l tng tin dn n 1% t l tng gi)

Quan h lm pht v li sut Phng trnh Fisher

r = i gp r li sut thc t i - li sut danh ngha Tc lm pht tng lm tng li sut danh ngha v gim li sut thc. Khi lm pht gia tng, cng gi tin cng thit, li sut thc m khng khuyn khch gi tin vo ngn hng, tin dng mua mi hng ha trn th trng (tch tr) gy tnh trng khan him cng lm lm pht tng nhanh hn.

TC NG CA LM PHT
i vi sn lng:
Lm pht cu ko tc ng n sn lng Y ty thuc vo dc ca tng cung AS. Nu Y<Y* th ta c s gia tng ln Y.Nu Y>Y* th gia tng tng cu s lm lm pht tng nhanh. Lm pht do cung th Y gim v gi tng, nn kinh t nh tr v lm pht. S gim Y nhiu hay t ty thuc dc ca ng tng cu AD. Nu lm pht do c cu v cung th ty thuc s dch chuyn ca AS, AD m Y c th tng, gim hoc khng i.

TC NG CA LM PHT
Tc ng phn phi li thu nhp v ca ci
Gia ngi vay v cho vay : do li sut danh ngha gim khi lm pht tng, thu nhp chuyn t ngi cho vay sang ngi i v Gia ngi lm thu v ng ch : lng danh ngha mt gi, thu nhp chuyn t ngi lm thu sang ng ch. Gia ngi pht hnh tri phiu v ngi mua tri phiu : ngi nm tri phiu b thit khi lm pht xy ra, ngi pht hnh tri phiu c li (trong trng hp tri phiu kho bc th chnh ph c li) Gia ngi bn ti ti sn v ngi mua : ngi mua c li v ngi bn thit do tin mt gi. Gia cc doanh nghip, ngnh : cc sn phm c gi tng chm s thit hn sn phm tng gi nhanh. Ngnh c gi tng nhanh s tng t trng trong c cu kinh t

TC NG CA LM PHT
Tc ng n hiu qu kinh t :
Bin dng c cu u t : khi lm pht, cc doanh nghip khng mun u t vo cc d n thu hi vn chm (h tng), do gim nng lc sn xut AS dch chuyn sang tri v Y* gim Suy yu th trng vn : li sut thc m khi lm pht tng dn n kh huy ng vn u t, sn lng gim theo cp s nhn, vic lm t i, tht nghip tng Sai lch tn hiu gi : khi gi tng nhanh, ngi dn v nh u t khng nhn nhn ng gi tr sn phm nn quyt nh mua bn v u t sai.

TC NG CA LM PHT
Tng chi ph: doanh nghip mt chi ph iu chnh gi ( thi gian v tin bc) Gim sc cnh tranh sn phm vi nc ngoi : gi tng kch thch nhp khu, gim xut khu. Hng nhp khu trn vo v sn xut ni a gim hoc ph sn Kch thch nh u t nc ngoi chuyn thu nhp v nc : m bo thu nhp ca mnh, khi ni t mt gi, h chuyn sang ngoi t v chuyn v nc, khng m rng u t.

GII PHP CHNG LM PHT

Hn ch sc tng ca tng cu gp : CSTT v CSTK tht cht. Song phi thn trng trnh suy thoi Hn ch tng sc cung : gim chi ph hoc gia tng nng lc sn xut lm AS dch chuyn sang phi Ch : Gii php hn ch tng tng cung c nhiu u im hn song kh thc hin hn nhiu. Thng th gii php hn ch cu c thc hin v rt d dn n suy thoi v tng tht nghip.

Quan h gia tht nghip vi tng trng kinh t

nh lut Okun :Khi sn lng thc t thp hn sn lng tim nng 2% th tht nghip s tng thm 1%. Y u u* = - h.100( -1) Y* Trong : u l t l tht nghip thc t u* l t l tht nghip t nhin h - nhy ca tht nghip vi s thay i sn lng

Quan h gia tht nghip vi tng trng kinh t

Theo Dornbusch v Fisher Khi tc ca sn lng thc t cao hn tc ca sn lng tim nng 2,5% th tht nghip s gim i 1% u = (a-a*)/2,5

Quan h gia tht nghip vi lm pht ng cong Phillip

gp = - (u u*) Trong : gp t l lm pht - dc ng Phillip - Khi tht nghip thc t ln hn tht nghip t nhin th lm pht xy ra. Lm pht - dc cng ln th s gim nh ca tht nghip gy s tng ln ca lm pht. Ngc li, nh - PC gn nh nm ngang, lm pht phn ng rt km vi tht nghip.
PC Tht nghip

ng cong Phillip m rng

Lm pht c sc nn thm lm pht d kin vo ng cong Phillip ngn hn gp = gpe - (u u*) Trong gpel mc lm pht d kin Nu tht nghip thc t ln hn mc tht nghip t nhin th lm pht thp hn mc d kin Phng trnh trn hm : Khi d kin c lm pht, PC s dch chuyn song song ln trn, cch ng PC ban u 1 khong ng bng lm pht d kin. ng Phillip di hn : hu ht cc bin s danh ngha iu chnh theo lm pht, ngha l gp - gpe s tin ti 0. Phng trnh PC lc ny vit li l 0 = - (u u*), hay u = u*. ng PC di hn song song vi trc tung, ct trc honh ti t l tht nghip t nhin u*

ng Phillip
gp PC di hn

gpe PC m rng u* PC ban u

Quan h gia tng cu v ng Phillip trong ngn hn

P AS - AD ASsr P1 (2) P0 (1) AD1 gp0 (5) u1 u0 U gp1 (4) PC ngn hn gp

(3) Y1 Y2

AD0

Quan h gia tng cu v ng Phillip

1. khi thc thi CSTT m rng AD dch chuyn sang phi 2. Gi tng t P0-P1 3. Sn lng tng Y0-Y1 4. Lm pht tng gp0-gp1 5. Tht nghip gim u0-u1

Quan h gia tng cung v ng Phillip di hn.

PC di hn ASlr

P1 (2) P0 (1) AD0 Y*

gp1 (3) gp0 AD1 u* Sn lng & tht nghip mc t nhin

Quan h gia tng cung v ng Phillip

1. CSTT m rng lm AD dch chuyn sang phi 2. Mc gi tng, sn lng gi nguyn mc tim nng Y* CSTT m rng chuyn nn kinh t t mc lm pht thp ti mc lm pht cao, mc tht nghip t nhin gi nguyn. Trong ngn hn c s nh i gia lm pht v tht nghip : tht nghip cao th lm pht thp v ngc li.Trong di hn khng tn ti mi quan h ny.

CH8 : TNG CUNG & CHU K KINH DOANH - TNG TRNG V PHT TRIN KINH T
Tng cung : AS phn nh tng lng hng ha v dch v m nn kinh t sn xut ra ti mi mc gi chung. Sn lng tim nng : l mc sn lng ti a m nn kinh t c th sn xut ra vi ngun lc sn c (vn, lao ng, ti nguyn, cng ngh v cc ngun lc khc). V mt ton dng ngun lc lao ng: GDP tim nng c nh ngha l mc sn lng m nn kinh t c th sn xut ra ti mc chun thp ca t l tht nghip ( t l tht nghip t nhin). Nhn t nh hng n tng cung : Lng vn, lao ng, ngun ti nguyn, trnh cng ngh (K, L, N, T)

Nhn t nh hng n tng cung Gi.

Khi nn kinh t sn xut nhiu hn sn lng tim nng, ngun lc c hn b s dng qu mc, gi c s tng cao dn n lm pht. Ngc li, nu thp hn, ngun lc sn c b d tha, tht nghip cao. Tc ng ca nhn t gi khc nhau trong k di hn v ngn hn :
ng tng cung di hn : Thng ng song song vi trc tung hm sn lng khng ph thuc vo mc gi. Gi s iu chnh nhanh chng u ra, u vo, mc lng thc t nn s khng c hin tng d tha hoc thiu lao ng ng tng cung ngn hn : S tng gi lm tng sn lng vi 4 gi nh : 1. Gi nh tin lng cng nhc, chm thay i 2. Gi nh gi c cng nhc 3. Gi nh nhn thc sai lm ca cng nhn 4. Gi nh thng tin khng hon ho

Nhn t nh hng n tng cung Gi.

1. Gi nh tin lng cng nhc: tin lng c nh trong mt vi nm, gi tng lm gim tin lng thc t, lao ng r i lm cc doanh nghip tng nhu cu lao ng, m rng sn xut, sn lng tng. Trong di hn :gi iu chnh, lng thc t tr v mc ban u, nhu cu lao ng cng tr v mc c, sn lng gim v mc sn lng tim nng 2. Gi nh gi c cng nhc: ngoi th trng lao ng, cn mt s th trng gi c nh (cha iu chnh), nn khi gi tng, 1 s u vo r, doanh nghip c li, tng nhu cu m rng sn lng. Di hn : gi iu chnh tng ht, khng cn li, doanh nghip tr v mc sn lng tim nng. ng cung vi gi nh gi c cng nhc : nm ngang, mi bin ng ca tng cu lm cho sn lng tng

a). ASlr thng ng b). ASsr nm ngang

P P ASlr

AD

ASsr

AD Y* a) Y Y1

AD b) Y2

AD Y

Nhn t nh hng n tng cung Gi.

3. Nhn thc sai lm ca cng nhn: cho rng lng tng khi gi c tng lm tng lng danh ngha, h khng nhn thy gi cc hng ha khc u tng, sc mua thc t ca lng gim, do h tng cung lao ng, lm cho gi lao ng cng r. Doanh nghip m rng sn lng do chi ph r. Di hn : h nhn thy gi c tng tng ng vi tin lng v gim cung lao ng. Tin lng thc t tr v mc ban u, cu lao ng tr v mc c, sn lng v mc tim nng.

Nhn t nh hng n tng cung Gi.

4. Gi nh thng tin khng hon ho : doanh nghip cho rng ch sn phm ca mnh tng gi, cc hng ha khc thkhng, nn m rng sn xut. Di hn :doanh nghip nhn r cc hng ha khc u ln gi, tr li mc sn lng tim nng.

CHU K KINH DOANH

P im tng trng nng ASsr ASlr GDP thc t 1 2

7,4 7,0

E GDP tim nng AD

6,6

im suy thoi 0 3 Nm Y Y* Y GDP suy thoi

Nguyn nhn gy nn chu k kinh doanh

1. Bin ng tng cu:
Ngn hn : AD gim lm mc gi chung gim, sn lng gim Di hn : gi gim, sn lng gim lm gim lng danh ngha, tng tht nghip, AS ngn hn tng, tr li sn lng tim nng

2. Bin ng tng cung :

AS ngn hn gim lm gim sn lng, tng gi (suy thoi km lm pht) Di hn : Tht nghip tng, lng gim. Gi tt c cc nhn t u vo gim tr li, ng cung tr li v tr ban u. Nu sc cung ko di, ng tng cung di hn c th gim, dch chuyn sn lng tim nng.

2. Chnh ph can thip a sn lng thc t tr li mc tim nng bng CSTT, CSTK m rng, tht cht

a)Bin ng tng cu b) Bin ng tng cung

P ASlr ASsr P ASlr AS2 AS1 P3 P1 P2 AD3 AD1 AD2 Y3 Y2 Y1 Y* a) Y Y2 Y1 b) Y* P2 P1 AD Y

Nguyn nhn gy nn chu k kinh doanh

Tng cu suy gim dn n PvY, hoc gia tng dn n PvY Tng cung gim do chi ph u vo tng ln dn n Pv Y (lm pht kt hp nh tr sn xut. Cc c sc cu c th y nn kinh t vo suy thoi Y<Y* hoc tng trng nng Y>Y*. Chnh ph c th thi hnh chnh sch tin t hay ti kha m rng hay tht cht a sn lng v mc tim nng. Cc c sc cung bt li lm tng chi ph sn xut (thi tit xu, p lc cng on tng lng, tng gi du a sn lng tr v mc t nhin, chnh ph c th kch cu lm tng sn lng v tng gi thm (nhng chnh ph khng th va tng sn lng, va gim gi c) Cc c sc cung c li lm tng sn lng tim nng : nu c s gia tng vn u t t nc ngoi hay ngun nhn lc cht lng cao, hay pht minh cng ngh mi lm tng nng sut, m thm nhiu th trng xut khung tng cung ASlr s dch chuyn sang phi. c im thi k suy thoi : C gim mnh, tn kho tng, cc hng ct gim sn xut, u t gim theo, cu v nguyn liu, lao ng u gim, tht nghip gia tng, lm pht cng thp hn

Mt s l thuyt v chu k kinh doanh

L thuyt tin t (M. Friedman): m rng hay tht cht tin t, tn dng l nguyn nhn gy ra cc dao ng ca chu k kinh doanh. L thuyt chnh tr : do cc chnh tr gia c c thi hnh cc chnh sch ti kha tin t thuyt phc c tri. Nhn thc sai lm v gi, lng dn n chu k sn lng v vic lm L thuyt v bin ng nng sut tiu cc hoc tch cc nh hng n GDP thc t. M hnh gi tc s nhn : Tc u t thay i lm cho thay i tc tng sn lng, n lt s thay i sn lng li dn n thay i u t. Khi sn lng ngng tng u t rng s tin n 0 ( ngha l ch cn khu hao) duy tr mc sn lng hin c, sn lng gim th u t s gim, lm sn lng gim tip theo cp s nhn c nh th cho n khi chm y chu k.

C9. KINH T V M CA NN KINH T M

Thng mi quc t - Li th so snh tuyt i v tng i. Cn cn thanh ton quc t, cn cn thng mi, cn cn vn v ti khon d tr T gi hi oi v th trng ngoi hi. Chnh sch v m trong cc ch t gi

LI TH SO SNH TRONG THNG MI QUC T

Mt nc c li th so snh trong vic sn xut 1 mt hng nu c chi ph sn xut mt hng thp hn so vi nc ngoi. Nc A c li th so snh tuyt i v sn xut c 2 mt hng r hn nc B Tuy nhin, nc B li c li th so snh tng i (chi ph c hi) sn xut mt hng QUN O r hn nc A (1/3 TIVI so vi 1/2 TIVI), cn nc A c li th so snh tng i (chi ph c hi) sn xut mt hng TIVI r hn nc B (2 qun o so vi 3 qun o). Do , theo nguyn tc li th so snh tng i : A nn sx TIVI v B nn sx QUN O trao i thng mi vi nhau. NH VY C HAI NC CNG C LI

Sn phm

Chi ph sn xut

Nc A

Nc B

TIVI

6 gi

12 gi

QUN O

3 gi

4 gi

 m (openness)
Ca th trng hng ha:c hi cho ngi tiu dng la chn gia hng ha ni a v hng ha nc ngoi. Ca th trng ti chnh :c hi cho cc nh u t la chn gia ti sn trong nc v ti sn nc ngoi. Ca th trng nhn t : c hi cho doanh nghip la chn a im u t, cng nhn la chn ni lm vic. o lng t l xut/nhp khu so vi GDP m ca Vit nam 1990 X/GDP = 26,42%, M/GDP = 35,66% 2007 X/GDP = 67,79%. M/GDP = 85,15%

Vit nam 2008

Hng xut khu ch lc : du th 10,5 t USD, hng dt may 9,1 t USD, giy dp 4,7 t USD, thy sn 4,6 t USD, go 2,9 t USD, sn phm g 2,8 t USD, in t, my tnh 2,7 t USD,c ph 2 t USD. Nhp khu : 2008 : 129,6 t USD, trong t liu : 92%, hng tiu dng : 8%.

THNG MI QUC T
Cn cn thng mi l xut khu rng NX = X-M Cc nhn t nh hng
Th hiu ngi tiu dng hng trong nc v hng nhp khu T gi hi oi chuyn i tin Tng quan gia gi hng trong nc v nc ngoi. Mc thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng Chi ph chuyn ch, hi quan Chnh sch thng mi ca chnh ph

DNG LUN CHUYN VN

NFI Gi tr ti sn do dn c trong nc mua tr i Gi tr ti sn trong nc do ngi nc ngoi mua
Khi ngi Vit nam mua c phn Cty Honda Nht, NFI ca Vit nam tng. Khi ngi Nht mua tri phiu kho bc ca Chnh ph Vit nam th NFI ca Vit nam gim

Nhn t nh hng :
Li sut tng i gia hai nc Mc ri ro v kinh t v chnh tr trong nc v nc ngoi. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph v s hu ti sn nc ngoi

CN CN THANH TON
Cn cn thanh ton : bn ghi chp h thng nhng giao dch kinh t gia trong nc v th gii, lin quan n th trng ngoi hi. (khon giao dch mang li ngoi t l khon mc c (+), cn giao dch phi tr ngoi t cho nc ngoi l khon mc n. CCTT = CC ti khon (TK) vng lai + v cn cn TK vn. + TK D TR CA CP CCTKVL gm CC thng mi (hng ha v dch v) thanh ton v dch v s dng vn nc ngoi. Cc khon chuyn khon khng thanh ton l vin tr, kiu hi. Cn cn TK vn (bao gm u t trc tip v gin tip mua c phiu ) ca trong nc v quc t, cc yu t tc ng gm : Li sut, chnh sch ca chnh ph, cc ri ro kinh t v chnh tr TK d tr ca CP : do Ngn hng TW gi gi l d tr chnh thc quc gia (c th vng, ngoi t mnh. Nh nc dng can thip vo th trng ngoi hi iu chnh t gi (bn ngoi t, vng thu ng tin Vit v, gi gi tin ng, hoc tung tin ng mua ngoi t trnh ng ln gi lm hng xut khu km cnh tranh)

T gi hi oi
TGH danh ngha en l t gi ti mt ng tin c i ly ng tin khc (c 2 cch th hin : 20.000 i ly 1 la hay 1/20.000 la i ly 1 . Khi s ni t cn i tng ln l ni t mt gi, ngc li l ni t ln gi. TGH thc er biu th bng tng quan hng ha 2 nc : th d 1 kt bia gi M gi 20 la, bia Vit nam gi 150.000 . T gi 15.000 i 1 la th ta c : TGH thc = e danh ngha x gi nc ngoi/gi trong nc = (15.000/1 la x 20 la/bia M)/150.000/bia Vit = 300.000/bia M/150.000/bia Vit = 2 bia Vit/bia M er = en x Pf/Pd Nu Pf/Pd khng i, en tng th gi sn phm nc ngaoif t hn tng i so vi sn phm trong nc, sc cnh tranh ca sn phm trong nc cao hn, xut khu tng v ngc li.

TH TRNG NGOI HI
V tin ngoi t trao i vi ni t trn TTNH nn cu ngoi t chnh l cung tin ng v cung ngoi t chnh l cu tin ng
T gi hi oi Cung la e

Cu la Lng la

TH TRNG NGOI HI
Ngun cung ngoi t : cc nc mun mua hng ha, dch v ca Vit nam ( trong thng mi), hoc mua tri phiu, c phiu, bt ng sn ca Vit nam (TK ti chnh) V sao ng cung la dc ln : v nu la tng gi, hng ha, dch v, ti sn Vit nam gim gi, hp dn ngi nc ngoi mua, do vy, tng cung la. V sao ng cu la dc xung : khi la gim gi, hng nc ngoi r hn, cc nh u t trong nc c nhu cu mua la mua hng ha, dch v, ti sn nc ngoi nn tng cu la

Hai ch t gi hi oi
T gi c nh do Ngn hng TW quy nh. Khi c sc p tng/gim t gi, NHTW dng d tr can thip gi nguyn mc t gi. T gi th ni linh hot. Gi nh th trng vn hon ton t do di chuyn t ni c li sut cao n c li sut thp

Chnh sch v m trong h thng t gi c nh

Chnh sch ti kha m rng
i LM1 i1 (2) LM2

i=i* (1) IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y3

CM

Chnh sch ti kha m rng t gi c nh

CP c gng tng sn lng bng m rng ti kha, IS sang phi, lm li sut tng. Vn bn ngoi chy vo, tng cung ngoi t, gy sc p tng gi ni t. NHTW tung ni t mua ngoi t vo lm tng cung tin LM dch sang phi n mc ct IS2 mc li sut cn bng. Nh vy CSTK m rng t hiu qu tng sn lng

Chnh sch tin t m rng t gi c nh

i LM1 LM2

i=i*

IS Y1 Y2 Y

Chnh sch tin t m rng t gi c nh

Tng sn lng bng CSTT m rng LM sang phi, li sut gim gy chy ra dng vn ln. iu ny gy sc p gim gi ni t. NHTW can thip mua ni t bng ngun d tr ngoi hi, gim cung tin lm LM tr v v tr c vi i = i*. Nh vy vi dng vn chuyn ra/vo t do th c gng tng sn lng bng CSTT m rng s dn n gim d tr ngoi t quc gia v chng t khng hiu qu.

Chnh sch ph gi ni t t gi c nh
Khi NHTW quyt nh ph gi ni t dn n hng ni r i, xut khu cnh tranh hn, tng xut khu lm IS dch chuyn sang phi, tng t nh khi thc hin CSTK m rng, li sut tng, dng vn chy vo gy sc p tng gi ni t.NHTW tung ni t mua ngoi t vo, LM sang phi. Nguy c tr a ca cc nc lng ging v hu qu ph gi ni t.

T gi linh hot, xc nh bi s vn ng ca dng vn ch khng ch do cn cn thng mi. CSTK m rng

i LM

(2) i=i* (1) IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y CM

CSTK m rng T gi linh hot

Chnh ph tng sn lng bng CSTK m rng, IS dch sang phi lm tng li sut, vn ngoi t vo, ni t ln gi lm gim xut khu, tng nhp khu, iu ny lm IS li dch chuyn sang tri v v tr c. CSTK trong ch ny hon ton khng c hiu qu

CSTT m rng T gi linh hot

i LM1 (1) LM2

i=i* (2) IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2

CM

CSTT m rng T gi linh hot

LM dch chuyn sang phi lm li sut trong nc gim, dng vn chy ra lm ng ni t gim gi. iu ny lm xut khu tng, nhp khu gim v IS dch sang phi Kt qu l thu nhp tng ln Nh vy, ch ring CSTT t c hiu qu tng sn lng nh s iu chnh ca t gi theo s thay i cung tin.