Giao Trinh Nguyen Ly Thong Ke

12/12/2010 Ging vin V
Trng Phong 1
HC VIN CNG NGH BU CHNH VIN THNG
BI GING MN
NGUYN L THNG K
KINH T
Ging vin: TS. V TRNG PHONG
in thoi/E-mail: 0912099811/ vutrongphong@yahoo.com
B mn: Kinh t - Khoa QTKD1
I. i tng nghin cu:
- i tng nghin cu ca thng k hc l mt lng trong mi
quan h mt thit vi mt cht ca cc hin tng v qu trnh kinh t
x hi s ln pht sinh trong iu kin thi gian v a im c th.
- Trong hin tng kinh t x hi, mt cht biu hin l bn cht,
c trng, tnh quy lut ca hin tng nghin cu. Mt lng phn
nh quy m, khi lng, t l so snh ca hin tng.
- Thng k nghin cu s ln cc n v nhm loi b nhng tc
ng ngu nhin, ring r ca cc n v c bit, t ch ra c trng,
bn cht, tnh quy lut chung ca hin tng nghin cu.
CHNG 1
NHNG VN CHUNG V THNG K HC
I. i tng nghin cu:
- Hin tng kinh t x hi biu hin bng con s thng k c th
ch tn ti, ch c ngha khi c xc nh trong iu kin thi gian v
a im c th. Trong nhng giai on pht trin v a im c th
khc nhau, cng mt hin tng kinh t x hi s c biu hin v mt
lng v bn cht khc nhau. V vy, nu khng gn vi iu kin thi
gian v a im c th, con s thng k s tr thnh con s ton hc
n thun, khng c ni dung.
CHNG 1
II. Mt s khi nim thng dng trong thng k:
1. Tng th v n v tng th:
- Thng k thng dng khi nim tng th ch i tng
nghin cu c th ca mnh.
- Tng th thng k bao gm nhiu n v, phn t c bit. Cc
n v hoc phn t c bit c gi l n v tng th.
- Tng th bao gm tt c cc n v ca hin tng c gi l
tng th ton b. Tng th ch bao gm mt s n v nht nh c
gi l tng th b phn.
- Tng th bao gm cc n v c th nhn thy bng trc quan
c gi l tng th bc l. Tng th bao gm cc n v khng th
nhn thy bng trc quan c gi l tng th tim n.
CHNG 1
2. Tiu thc thng k:
- Mi n v tng th c nhiu c im khc nhau, tu
theo mc ch nghin cu m mt hoc mt s c im c
chn ra. Cc c im c gi l tiu thc thng k.
- Tiu thc thng k bao gm hai loi l tiu thc thuc tnh v
tiu thc s lng.
Tiu thc thuc tnh l nhng tiu thc khng c biu hin
trc tip bng cc con s.
Tiu thc s lng l nhng tiu thc c biu hin trc tip
bng cc con s.
CHNG 1
3. Ch tiu thng k:
- Ch tiu thng k phn nh lng gn vi cht ca cc
mt, cc tnh cht c bn ca hin tng s ln trong iu kin
thi gian v a im c th.
- Ch tiu thng k bao gm 2 mt: Khi nim v con s.
Mt khi nim c ni dung l nh ngha, l gii hn v
khng gian v thi gian ca hin tng.
Mt con s biu hin quy m ca hin tng.
CHNG 1
- Ch tiu thng k bao gm 2 loi: Ch tiu cht lng v ch tiu
khi lng.
Ch tiu cht lng biu hin cc tnh cht, trnh ph bin,
mi quan h ca tng th.
Ch tiu khi lng biu hin quy m ca tng th.
3. Ch tiu thng k:
NGUYN L THNG K KINH T 12
1. Khi nim, ngha, nhim v, yu cu
2. Cc loi iu tra thng k
3. Cc phng php thu thp ti liu iu tra
4. Cc hnh thc t chc iu tra
5. Nhng vn ch yu ca iu tra thng k
13
iu tra
chuyn
iu tra
trng im
iu tra
chn mu
iu tra
ton b
iu tra
khng
ton b
iu tra
thng xuyn
iu tra
khng
thng xuyn
Theo
tnh cht
ngun ti liu
iu tra
thng k
Theo
phm vi
nghin cu
14
3. 3. PHNG PHNG PHP PHP
THU THU THP THP
TI TI LIU LIU
IU IU TRA TRA
Thu thp
trc tip
Thu thp
gin tip
15
iu tra
chuyn mn
Bo co
thng k
nh k
44. . HHNH NH THC THC
T T CHC CHC
IU IU TRA TRA
16
Xc nh mc ch iu tra
Xc nh i tng v n v iu tra
Ni dung iu tra
Ghi chp ban u
Xc nh thi k v thi im iu tra
Biu iu tra v bn gii thch cch ghi biu
Sai s trong iu tra thng k
I. Mt s khi nim c bn:
1. Phn t thng k:
Phn t thng k l vic cn c vo mt hoc mt s tiu thc no
phn chia cc n v ca hin tng thnh cc t c tnh cht
khc nhau.
2. Tiu thc phn t:
Tiu thc phn t l tiu thc m ngi ta da vo phn t
thng k.
3. Lng bin:
Lng bin l tr s ca tiu thc nghin cu (k hiu x
i
).
4. Tn s:
Tn s l s ln xut hin hay lp li ca mt lng bin no
(k hiu f
i
).
5. Tn sut:
Tn sut l t trng ca tn s mi t trong tng tn s (k hiu d
i
).
II. Phng php phn t thng k:
1. Phn t theo mt tiu thc (phn t gin n):
- Tiu thc thuc tnh l tiu thc khng c biu hin trc tip bng
cc con s, v vy khi phn t theo tiu thc thuc tnh, cc t c hnh
thnh khng phi do s khc nhau v lng m do loi hnh khc nhau.
- Trong mt s trng hp vic phn t c tin hnh rt d dng
(v d: phn t dn s theo gii tnh), ngc li, c mt s trng hp
vic phn t rt kh khn (v d phn t dn s theo ngh nghip).
1.1. Phn t theo tiu thc thuc tnh:
1.2. Phn t theo tiu thc s lng:
1.2.1. Trng hp lng bin t thay i:
- Lng bin t thay i l cc lng bin m s chnh lch gia
chng l khng ng k v s cc lng bin c mt gii hn nht nh,
v d: s lng ngi trong mt gia nh, s my do mt cng nhn ph
trch
- Trng hp ny mi lng bin s l cn c hnh thnh nn
mt t.
S ngi trong mt gia nh (x
i
) S h gia nh (f
i
)
2
3
4
5
6
7
100
150
300
350
180
90
V d 3.1: Phn t s h gia nh ca thnh ph A theo s ngi
trong mi h.
1.2.1. Trng hp lng bin t thay i:
1.2.2. Trng hp lng bin thay i nhiu:
- Trng hp ny nu mi lng bin l cn c hnh thnh nn
mt t th s t s qu nhiu v gia cc t khng c s khc nhau v
cht.
- Trng hp ny ngi ta s nhm mt s lng bin thnh mt
t v gi l phn t c khong cch t. Mi t s c mt phm vi lng
bin bao gm hai gii hn: Gii hn di l lng bin nh nht
hnh thnh nn t, gii hn trn l lng bin ln nht m nu vt
qua th cht ca hin tng s thay i v chuyn sang t khc.
Chnh lch gia gii hn trn v gii hn di c gi l
khong cch t.
- Ngi ta c th phn t vi khong cch t u nhau hoc
khng u nhau
Nng sut thu hoch (t/ha)
(x
min
x
max
)
S hp tc x
(f
i
)
30,0 40,0
40,0 50,0
50,0 60,0
60,0 70,0
50
80
100
30
V d 3.2: Phn t cc hp tc x nng nghip ca tnh A theo nng
sut thu hoch (phn t c khong cch t u nhau).
S cng nhn (ngi)
(x
min
x
max
)
S doanh nghip
(f
i
)
20 50
51 100
101 200
201 300
20
60
15
5
V d 3.3: Phn t cc doanh nghip cng nghip ca tnh B theo
s cng nhn (phn t c khong cch t khng u nhau).
h =
X
max
X
min
n
h =
(X
max
X
min
) (n 1)
n
Trng hp phn t c khong cch t u nhau, tr s khong
cch t c tnh nh sau:
i vi lng bin lin tc:
i vi lng bin khng lin tc:
2. Phn t theo nhiu tiu thc (phn t kt hp):
Khi phn t theo nhiu tiu thc, cch thc tin hnh cng ging
nh phn t theo mt tiu thc, ngha l phi xc nh xem cn phn t
theo nhng tiu thc no, mi tiu thc cn phn lm bao nhiu t. Tin
hnh phn chia cc n v ca tng th theo tiu thc th nht, sau
mi t li c chia thnh cc tiu t theo tiu thc th hai v c th
tip tc cho n tiu thc cui cng.
Phn t cng nhn theo NSL
Nng sut lao
ng (kg/ngi)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng
nhn (ngi)
(f
i
)
10,0 15,0
15,0 20,0
20,0 25,0
25,0 30,0
20
25
35
20
Phn t cng nhn theo bc th
Bc th
(x
i
)
S cng nhn (ngi)
(f
i
)
2
3
4
5
6
10
25
35
20
10
V d 3.4: C s liu v cng nhn trong mt doanh nghip nh sau:
Bc th
NSL
2 3 4 5 6 Cng
10,0 15,0
15,0 20,0
20,0 25,0
25,0 30,0
6
2
2
-
8
7
6
4
4
11
16
4
2
3
8
7
-
2
3
5
20
25
35
20
Cng
10 25 35 20 10 100
Phn t kt hp theo hai tiu thc l nng sut lao ng v bc th.
3. Phn t li:
- Trong thc t c trng hp cc ti liu c phn t ln u
ri cn c phn t li. Phn t li l vic thnh lp cc t mi trn c
s cc t c c phn ln u nhm p ng mc ch nghin
cu no . Phn t li c p dng trong cc trng hp sau:
Cc ti liu trc c phn t khng thng nht vi nhau
v s t v khong cch t nn khng so snh c vi nhau.
Cc ti liu trc c phn thnh qu nhiu t nh, cc
t ny khng biu hin r s khc nhau, khng phn nh ng tnh hnh
thc t.
- C hai cch phn t li:
Cch 1: Lp cc t mi bng cch thay i khong cch t
ca phn t c (m rng hoc thu hp khong cch t).
Cch 2: Lp cc t mi theo t trng ca mi t trong tng
th.
- Khi tin hnh phn t li, ngi ta thng vn s dng tiu thc
phn t c.
3. Phn t li:
Doanh nghip A Doanh nghip B
Tui ngh (nm)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn
(ngi) (f
i
)
Tui ngh (nm)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn
(ngi) (f
i
)
Di 2
2 - di 5
5 - di 10
Trn 10
10
20
50
20
Di 1
1 - di 2
2 - di 5
5 - di 7
7 - di 10
Trn 10
8
10
22
30
20
10
Cng 100 Cng 100
V d 3.5: C ti liu v tui ngh cng nhn ca hai doanh nghip
thuc cng mt ngnh sn xut nh sau:
3.1. Phn t li bng cch thay i khong cch t:
Doanh nghip A Doanh nghip B
Tui ngh (nm)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn
(ngi) (f
i
)
Tui ngh (nm)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn
(ngi) (f
i
)
Di 5
5 - di 10
Trn 10
30
50
20
Di 5
5 - di 10
Trn 10
40
50
10
Cng 100 Cng 100
Gi s ta phn t li hai tng th cng nhn ni trn thnh 5 t c
khong cch u nhau: di 5 nm, 5 n di 10 nm, 10 n di
15 nm, 15 n di 20 nm v trn 20 nm. Kt qu nh sau:
3.1. Phn t li bng cch thay i khong cch t:
S hc sinh
T l % trong tng s
S trng S gio vin S lp hc
Di 500
501 700
701 900
901 1.100
1.101 1.300
1.301 1.500
1.501 1.700
1.701 tr ln
4,0
6,0
15,0
18,0
27,0
15,0
8,0
7,0
1,8
3,2
10,1
16,8
27,2
16,8
11,1
13,0
1,4
2,8
9,5
16,2
27,6
17,7
11,1
13,7
Cng 100 100 100
3.2. Phn t li theo t trng mi t:
V d 3.6: C ti liu v s hc sinh ca cc trng trong mt tnh
nh sau
- By gi cn phn t li cc trng thnh 3 t: Trng nh,
trng trung bnh v trng ln.
- Theo t l c xc nh trc, s trng nh chim 35%,
trng trung bnh chim 50%, trng ln chim 15%.
- T mi th nht gm 35% tng s trng bao gm 3 t u tin
v ly thm 10% ca t th t c.
- Vy i vi t mi th nht:
T l gio vin s l:
1,8 + 3,2 + 10,1 +
10 x 16,8
= 24,4(%)
18
T l lp hc s l:
1,4 + 2,8 + 9,5 +
10 x 16,2
= 22,7(%)
18
8 x 16,8
+ 27,2 + 16,8 = 51,5 (%)
18
8 x 16,2
+ 27,6 + 17,7 = 52,5 (%)
18
- Vy i vi t mi th hai:
T l gio vin s l:
T l lp hc s l:
-T mi th hai gm 50% s trng s bao gm 8% s trng cn
li ca t th t c v ton b hai t 5 v 6 c, tc l: 8 + 27 + 15 = 50%
Quy m
T l % trong tng s
S trng S gio vin S lp hc
Loi nh
Loi trung bnh
Loi ln
35
50
15
24,4
51,5
24,1
22,7
52,5
24,8
Cng 100 100 100
- T mi th ba gm 15% tng s trng s tnh theo t l % cn
li. Kt qu cui cng nh sau:
III. Bng thng k v th thng k:
1. Bng thng k:
- Bng thng k l hnh thc trnh by cc ti liu thng
k mt cch c h thng, hp l v r rng.
- V hnh thc, bng thng k bao gm cc hng ngang v ct
dc, cc tiu v cc s liu.
Cc hng ngang v ct dc phn nh quy m ca bng. Cc
hng ngang v ct dc ct nhau to thnh cc in s liu vo .
Tiu ca bng phn nh ni dung ca bng v ca tng
chi tit trong bng.
1.1. Khi nim:
1.2. Cu thnh ca bng thng k:
- V ni dung, bng thng k gm hai phn: Phn ch v phn
gii thch.
Phn ch nu ln tng th hin tng c trnh by
trong bng thng k. Tng th ny c chia thnh cc b phn, n gii
thch hin tng nghin cu l nhng n v no, loi hnh g. C khi
phn ch l cc a phng hoc thi gian nghin cu khc nhau
ca hin tng.
Phn gii thch gm cc ch tiu gii thch cc c im ca
i tng nghin cu, ngha l gii thch phn ch ca bng.
1.2. Cu thnh ca bng thng k:
- Bng gin n: L loi bng m phn ch khng phn t, ch
sp xp cc n v theo tn gi, theo a phng hoc theo thi gian
nghin cu.
- Bng phn t: L loi bng m i tng nghin cu ghi trong
phn ch c phn thnh cc t theo mt tiu thc no .
- Bng kt hp: L loi bng thng k trong i tng nghin
cu ghi phn ch c phn t theo hai, ba tiu thc kt hp vi
nhau.
1.3. Cc loi bng thng k:
1.4. Cc yu cu i vi vic xy dng bng thng k:
- Quy m ca bng thng k khng nn qu ln (qu nhiu t v
qu nhiu ch tiu).
- Cc tiu v tiu mc trong bng thng k cn ghi chnh xc,
y , gn v d hiu.
- Cc hng v ct thng c k hiu bng ch hoc s tin
trnh by v theo di.
- Cc ch tiu gii thch trong bng thng k cn sp xp theo
trnh t hp l, ph hp vi mc ch nghin cu, cc ch tiu c lin h
vi nhau nn sp xp gn nhau.
1.4. Cc yu cu i vi vic xy dng bng thng k:
- Cch ghi s liu vo bng thng k: Theo nguyn tc, cc trong
bng thng k dng ghi s liu, song nu khng c s liu th dng
cc k hiu quy c sau:
K hiu (-) biu hin hin tng khng c s liu .
K hiu () biu hin s liu cn thiu v s b sung sau.
K hiu (x) ni ln rng hin tng khng c lin quan n
iu , nu vit s liu vo s v ngha.
- Phn ghi ch cui bng thng k thng c dng gii
thch r ni dung ca mt s ch tiu trong bng, ni r cc ngun ti
liu s dng trong bng hoc cc ch tiu cn thit khc.
- Trong bng thng k bao gi cng phi c n v tnh c th cho
tng ch tiu.
2. th thng k:
- th thng k l cc hnh v hoc ng nt hnh hc dng
miu t c tnh cht quy c cc ti liu thng k.
2.1. Khi nim:
- th thng k c th biu th:
Kt cu ca hin tng theo tiu thc no v s bin i
ca kt cu.
S pht trin ca hin tng theo thi gian.
Tnh hnh thc hin k hoch.
Mi lin h gia cc hin tng.
S so snh gia cc hin tng.
2.2. Cc loi th thng k:
- Cn c theo ni dung phn nh c th phn chia th thng k
thnh cc loi sau:
th kt cu.
th pht trin.
th hon thnh k hoch hoc nh mc.
th lin h.
th so snh.
th phn phi.
2.2. Cc loi th thng k:
- Cn c theo hnh thc biu hin c th phn chia th thng k
thnh cc loi sau:
Biu hnh ct.
Biu tng hnh.
Biu din tch (vung, ch nht, trn).
th ng gp khc.
Bn thng k.
- iu tra thng k l vic thu thp cc s liu cn thit
v hin tng nghin cu mt cch c khoa hc v theo mt k
hoch thng nht.
I. iu tra thng k:
1. Khi nim:
- Nhim v ca iu tra thng k l cung cp cc ti liu cn thit
phc v cho cc khu tip theo ca qu trnh nghin cu thng k.
- iu tra thng k phi m bo cc yu cu: Chnh xc, kp thi
v y .
2. Cc loi iu tra thng k:
- Cn c theo phm vi, iu tra thng k c chia thnh hai loi
l iu tra ton b v iu tra khng ton b.
iu tra ton b l vic tin hnh thu thp s liu trn tt c
cc n v tng th, khng b st bt k n v no.
iu tra khng ton b l vic ch tin hnh thu thp s liu
trn mt s n v nht nh ca tng th. iu tra khng ton b bao
gm: iu tra chn mu, iu tra trng im v iu tra chuyn .
- Cn c theo thi gian, iu tra thng k c chia thnh hai loi
l iu tra thng xuyn v iu tra khng thng xuyn.
iu tra thng xuyn l vic tin hnh thu thp s liu mt
cch lin tc, theo st vi qu trnh pht sinh, pht trin ca hin tng.
iu tra khng thng xuyn l vic ch tin hnh thu thp
s liu vo nhng thi im nht nh.
2. Cc loi iu tra thng k:
- Thu thp trc tip: iu tra vin t mnh quan st hoc
trc tip gp i tng hi v ghi chp s liu.
3. Cc phng php thu thp ti liu iu tra:
- Thu thp gin tip: iu tra vin tin hnh thu thp ti liu thng
qua cc bn cu hi, phiu iu tra hoc qua in thoi
4. Cc hnh thc t chc iu tra thng k:
- Bo co thng k nh k: L hnh thc t chc thu thp ti liu
thng xuyn, c nh k, theo ni dung, phng php v ch bo
co thng nht, do c quan c thm quyn quy nh. Trong hnh thc
ny, ngi ta ph bin p dng loi iu tra ton b v thng xuyn.
- iu tra chuyn mn: L hnh thc iu tra khng thng xuyn
c tin hnh theo mt k hoch v phng php quy nh ring cho
mt ln iu tra.
5. Sai s trong iu tra thng k:
- Sai s trong iu tra thng k l chnh lch gia tr s ca ti liu
iu tra vi tr s thc ca hin tng. C 2 loi sai s:
Sai s do ghi chp: Ngi iu tra quan st sai, ghi chp sai
do v tnh, do i tng tr li sai
Sai s do tnh cht i biu: Ch xy ra trong iu tra chn
mu.
II. Tng hp thng k:
1. Khi nim:
- Tng hp thng k l vic tin hnh tp trung, chnh l v h
thng ho mt cch khoa hc cc ti liu ban u thu thp c trong
qu trnh iu tra thng k.
- Tng hp thng k l mt giai on phc tp, bao gm nhiu
cng vic khc nhau nh: Phn t thng k, xc nh cc ch tiu c
trng, p dng cc k thut tnh ton, trnh by kt qu thnh bng hoc
th thng k.
2. T chc tng hp thng k:
2.1. Chun b ti liu tng hp:
- Cc c quan hay c nhn thc hin tng hp phi tp trung y
s lng phiu iu tra hoc cc ti liu khc p ng nhim v
c giao. Ti liu khng tp trung y t u m tin hnh tng
hp sau phi tin hnh tng hp b xung.
- Kim tra ti liu dng vo tng hp l mt vic lm khng th b
qua. Cht lng v kt qu tng hp ph thuc vo cht lng ti liu
dng vo tng hp. Kim tra ti liu nhm mc ch m bo tnh chnh
xc ca ti liu phc v cho vic tnh ton ng cc ch tiu sau ny.
2.2. Cc hnh thc tng hp thng k:
- Tng hp tng cp: L hnh thc tng hp ti liu iu tra theo
tng bc t cp di ln cp trn theo k hoch vch sn. C
quan ph trch tng hp cc cp tin hnh tng hp ti liu theo phm
vi c phn cng, sau gi kt qu ln cp cao hn tin hnh
tng hp theo phm vi rng hn. Theo trnh t nh vy, cui cng cc
ti liu c gi v trung ng tin hnh tng hp ln cui, tnh ton
cc ch tiu chung nu r ton b tnh hnh ca hin tng nghin cu.
- Tng hp tp trung: Ton b ti liu iu tra c tp trung v
mt c quan duy nht tin hnh tng hp t u n cui.
III. Phn tch v d on thng k:
1. Khi nim:
- Phn tch v d on thng k l nu ln mt cch tng hp bn
cht c th v tnh quy lut ca cc hin tng v qu trnh kinh t x
hi trong iu kin c th, d on cc mc tng lai ca hin
tng.
- Phn tch v d on thng k l khu cui cng trong qu trnh
nghin cu thng k, biu hin kt qu ca ton b qu trnh nghin
cu thng k.
- m bo tnh ng n, khch quan, phn tch v d on
thng k phi m bo cc yu cu sau:
Phi tin hnh trn c s phn tch l lun kinh t x hi.
Phi cn c vo ton b s kin v t chng trong mi lin
h vi nhau.
Vi cc hin tng c tnh cht v hnh thc pht trin khc
nhau phi c phng php khc nhau.
2. Yu cu ca phn tch v d on thng k:
3. Nhng vn ch yu ca phn tch v d on thng k:
- Xc nh mc ch c th ca phn tch v d on thng k.
Trong thc t khng th cng mt lc phn tch v d on c tt c
cc mt ca hin tng, v vy phi xc nh mc ch c th. Mc ch
c th ca phn tch v d on thng k l nhng vn cn gii
quyt trong phm vi nht nh.
- La chn ti liu dng phn tch v d on: Cn c vo mc
ch ca phn tch v d on la chn ti liu ph hp.
- Xc nh cc phng php v cc ch tiu phn tch v d on:
Khi la chn v vn dng cc phng php phn tch cn
nm c u nhc im ca cc phng php vn dng linh hot
trong cc trng hp, kt hp cc phng php nhm pht huy tc
dng tng hp ca chng.
Khi xc nh cc ch tiu phi xut pht t mc ich c th
ca phn tch la chn cc ch tiu quan trng nht. Cc ch tiu phi
c s lin h vi nhau, b xung cho nhau.
- So snh, i chiu cc ch tiu: Mi ch tiu ch phn nh mt mt
ca hin tng nghin cu, khi so snh, i chiu cc ch tiu vi nhau
ta s thy c c im, bn cht, xu hng pht trin ca hin tng.
Khi so snh, i chiu cc ch tiu cn ch m bo tnh so snh c
ca cc ch tiu.
I. S tuyt i:
1. Khi nim:
S tuyt i trong thng k biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin
tng trong iu kin thi gian v a im c th.
2. Cc loi s tuyt i:
- S tuyt i thi im : Biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin
tng ti mt thi im nht nh.
- S tuyt i thi k: Biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin tng
trong mt di thi gian nht nh.
t
=
y
1
y
0
II. S tng i:
1. Khi nim:
S tng i trong thng k l t l so snh gia hai mc ca
mt hin tng hoc hai mc ca hai hin tng khc nhau nhng
c mi quan h vi nhau.
2. Cc loi s tng i:
- S tng i ng thi: L t l so snh gia mc ca hin
tng k nghin cu vi mc ca hin tng k gc.
t
nk
=
y
k
y
0
- S tng i k hoch: Bao gm hai loi.
S tng i nhim v k hoch: l t l so snh gia mc
k hoch ra cho k nghin cu vi mc thc t t c k
gc.
S tng i hon thnh k hoch: l t l so snh gia mc
thc t t c k nghin cu vi mc k hoch ra cho k
.
t
hk
=
y
1
y
k
- Ta c mi lin h gia ba loi s tng i nh sau: t = t
nk
x t
hk
2. Cc loi s tng i:
=
=
n
1 i
i
i
i
y
y
d
- S tng i t trng: L t l gia mc ca mt b phn vi
mc ca c tng th.
- S tng i cng : L t l so snh gia hai mc ca
hai hin tng khc nhau nhng c mi lin h vi nhau.
Mt dn s
=
Tng s dn
Din tch t ai
2. Cc loi s tng i:
III. Cc tham s o xu hng hi t:
1. S bnh qun:
1.1. S bnh qun cng:
1.1.1. S bnh qun cng gin n:
- S bnh qun cng gin n p dng trong trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s bng 1.
- Cng thc tnh ton nh sau:
n
x
x
n
1 i
i
=
=
=
=
=
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i i
f
f x
x
1.1.2. S bnh qun cng gia quyn:
- S bnh qun cng gia quyn p dng trong trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s khc nhau.
Tn phn
xng
Nng sut lao ng
(kg/ngi) (x
i
)
S cng nhn
(ngi) (f
i
)
x
i
f
i
A
B
C
50
52
55
40
100
60
2.000
5.200
3.300
Cng 52,5 200 10.500
52,5
200
10.500
x = =
V d 4.1: C s liu v nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn trong
mt doanh nghip nh sau:
1.1.2. S bnh qun cng gia quyn:
Tr s gia
=
Gii hn trn + Gii hn di
2
1.1.3. S bnh qun cng gia quyn trong trng hp
phn t c khong cch t:
- Ngi ta vn p dng cng thc tnh s bnh qun cng gia quyn
vi x
i
l tr s gia ca t i.
- Tr s gia c tnh nh sau:
Nng sut lao ng
(kg/ngi)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn
(ngi)
(f
i
)
Tr s
gia
(x
i
)
x
i
f
i
25 35
35 45
45 - 55
40
100
60
30
40
50
1.200
4.000
3.000
Cng 200 41 8.200
41
200
200 . 8
x = =
V d 4.2: C s liu v nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn trong
1.1.3. S bnh qun cng gia quyn trong trng hp
phn t c khong cch t:
=
= =
=
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
i
i
i n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i i
f
f
x
f
f x
x
=
=
n
1 i
i
i
i
f
f
d
=
=
n
1 i
i i
d x x
100
d x
x
n
1 i
i i
=
=
1.1.4. S bnh qun cng vi quyn s l t trng:
- Xut pht t cng thc: - t:
- Ta c:
Hoc (nu d
i
tnh bng %)
=
=
n
1 i
i
x
1
n
x
1.2. S bnh qun iu ho:
1.2.1. S bnh qun iu ho gin n:
- S bnh qun iu ho gin n p dng trong trng hp cc
tng lng bin tiu thc bng nhau.
12
10
1
15
1
12
1
3
x
1
n
x
n
1 i
i
=
+ +
= =
=
V d 4.3: C 3 cng nhn cng sn xut mt loi sn phm trong
thi gian nh nhau. Ngi th nht lm ra mt sn phm mt 12 pht,
ngi th hai mt 15 pht v ngi th ba mt 10 pht. Hy tnh thi
gian lm ra mt sn phm bnh qun ca c 3 cng nhn ni trn.
1.2.1. S bnh qun iu ho gin n:
=
=
=
n
1 i
i
i
n
1 i
i
x
M
M
x
1.2.2. S bnh qun iu ho gia quyn:
- S bnh qun iu ho gia quyn p dng trong trng hp cc
tng lng bin tiu thc khng bng nhau.
- Trong : M
i
= x
i
f
i
10,82
12
3.600
10
4.320
3.600 4.320
x
M
M
x
n
1 i
i
i
n
1 i
i
=
+
+
= =
=
=
V d 4.4: C 2 t cng nhn cng sn xut mt loi sn phm
trong 6 gi. T th nht c 12 cng nhn v mi ngi lm ra mt sn
phm mt 10 pht. T th hai c 10 cng nhn v mi ngi lm ra
mt sn phm mt 12 pht. Hy tnh thi gian lm ra mt sn phm
bnh qun ca c 2 t cng nhn ni trn.
1.2.2. S bnh qun iu ho gia quyn:
n
n
1 i
i
n
n 2 1
x ...x x x x
[
=
= =
1.3. S bnh qun nhn:
1.3.1. S bnh qun nhn gin n:
- S bnh qun nhn gin n p dng trong trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s bng 1.
=
=
=
[
=
n
1 i
i
i
n
1 i
i
n 2 1
f
n
1 i
f
i
f
f
n
f
2
f
1
x ...x x x x
1.3.2. S bnh qun nhn gia quyn:
- S bnh qun nhn gia quyn p dng trong trng hp cc
lng bin c tn s khc nhau.
n+1
2
2. Trung v:
Trung v l lng bin ca n v ng v tr chnh gia dy s,
chia s n v trong dy s thnh hai phn bng nhau.
2.1. Khi nim:
2.2. Phng php tnh trung v:
- Trng hp dy s lng bin khng c khong cch t: Trung
v s l lng bin ca n v ng v tr
- Nh vy, nu tng s n v trong dy s l l th trung v l
lng bin ca n v ng chnh gia. Nu s n v chn th trung v
l trung bnh cng ca hai lng bin ca hai n v ng gia.
e
1 e
n
1 i
i
e e e
f
S
2
f
h x M

=

+ =
- Trng hp dy s lng bin c khong cch t:

Xc nh t cha trung v: T cha trung v l t cha n v
ng gia dy s.
Xc nh gi tr gn ng ca trung v theo cng thc sau:
Tin lng (1.000/ngi) S cng nhn (ngi)
1.600 - 2.000
2.000 - 2.400
2.400 - 2.800
2.800 - 3.200
3.200 - 3.600
3.600 - 4.000
20
40
60
30
28
22
Cng 200
V d 4.5: C s liu v tin lng cng nhn trong mt doanh
nghip nh sau:
2.666,67
60
60
2
200
400 2.400 M
e
=
+ =
- T cha trung v l t th 3.
- Gi tr gn ng ca trung v l:
3. Mt:
3.1. Khi nim:
- i vi dy s khng c khong cch t: Mt l lng bin xut
hin nhiu nht trong dy s (c tn s ln nht).
- i vi dy s c khong cch t: Mt l lng bin trn c
mt phn phi ln nht, tc l xung quanh lng bin y tp trung
nhiu tn s nht.
3.2. Phng php tnh mt:
- i vi dy s khng c khong cch t: Mt l lng bin c
tn s ln nht.
d
i
=
f
i
h
i
) f (f ) f (f
f f
h x M
1 o o 1 o o
1 o o
o o o
+
+

+ =
- i vi dy s c khong cch t:
Xc nh t cha mt: C hai trng hp.
Nu cc t c khong cch u nhau: T no c tn s ln
nht l t cha mt.
Nu cc t c khong cch khng u nhau: T no c mt
phn phi ln nht l t cha mt
Xc nh gi tr gn ng ca mt:
2.560
30) (60 40) (60
40 60
400 2.400
o
M =
+

+ =
V d 4.6: Vi s liu ca v d 4.5, ta tnh c gi tr ca mt nh
sau:
- T cha mt l t th 3.
- Gi tr gn ng ca mt l:
IV. Cc tham s o phn tn:
1. o khong cch phn tn:
1.1. Khong bin thin:
- Khong bin thin l chnh lch gia lng bin ln nht v
nh nht ca dy s.
R = X
max
- X
min
1.2. Khong tam phn v:
- Ton b s n v ca tng th c chia thnh 3 phn bng
nhau.
1 n/3 2n/3 n
- Tnh khong: R = X
2n/3
X
n/3
1.3. Khong t phn v:
- Ton b s n v ca tng th c chia thnh 4 phn bng
nhau.
1 n/4 2n/4 3n/4 n
- Tnh khong: R = X
3n/4
X
n/4
n
x x
d
n
1 i
i
=

=
=
=

=
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i i
f
f x x
d
2. lch tuyt i bnh qun:
- lch tuyt i bnh qun l s bnh qun cng ca cc lch
tuyt i gia lng bin vi s bnh qun ca cc lng bin .
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s bng 1
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s khc nhau
n
) x (x
n
1 i
2
i
2

=

=
=
=

=
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i
2
i
2
f
f ) x (x
3. Phng sai:
- Phng sai l s bnh qun cng ca bnh phng cc lch
gia lng bin vi s bnh qun ca cc lng bin .
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s bng 1
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s khc nhau
n
) x (x
n
1 i
2
i
=

=
=
=

=
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i
2
i
f
f ) x (x
4. lch chun:
- lch chun l cn bc hai ca phng sai.
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s bng 1
Trng hp cc lng
bin c tn s khc nhau
x
d
V
d
=
x
=
5. H s bin thin ( phn tn tng i):
- Cc tham s nh phng sai, lch tuyt i bnh qun,
lch chun u o s phn tn bng s tuyt i. Cc tr s ny khng
nhng ph thuc vo s bin thin ca tiu thc m cn ph thuc vo
lng bin v s bnh qun.V vy khng th s dng chng so snh
phn tn ca cc tng th khc loi hoc gia cc tng th cng loi
nhng c s bnh qun khc nhau. Trng hp ny, ngi ta phi s
dng h s bin thin.
Hoc
Nng sut lao ng (kg/ngi)
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng nhn (ngi)
(f
i
)
15,0 25,0
25,0 35,0
35,0 45,0
20
50
30
Cng 100
- V d 4.6: C s liu v nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn trong
- Hy tnh:
1. Nng sut lao ng bnh qun. 3. Phng sai
2. lch tuyt i bnh qun. 4. lch chun
6. V d:
NSL
(x
min
x
max
)
S cng
nhn
(f
i
)
Tr s
gia
(x
i
)
x
i
f
i
15,0 25,0
25,0 35,0
35,0 45,0
20
50
30
20
30
40
400
1.500
1.200
11
1
9
220
50
270
2.420
50
2.430
Cng 100 31 3.100 - 540 4.900
x x
i

i i
f x x ( )
i
2
i
f x x
- Ta c bng s liu sau:
6. V d:
7. Mt s vn tnh ton v vn dng phng sai:
7.1. Phng sai ca tiu thc thay phin:
- Tiu thc thay phin l tiu thc c 2 biu hin khng trng nhau
trn mt n v tng th (c hoc khng).
- K hiu:
x
1
= 1: n v iu tra c biu hin ca tiu thc.
x
2
= 0: n v iu tra khng c biu hin ca tiu thc.
p: T trng ca b phn c biu hin ca tiu thc.
q: T trng ca b phn khng c biu hin ca tiu thc.
p + q = 1
p
q p
q) x 0 ( p) x (1
f
f x
x
i
i i
=
+
+
= =
( )
( ) ( )
pq
q p
q p 0 p p 1
f
f x x
2 2
i
i
2
i
2
=
+
+
=
7.1. Phng sai ca tiu thc thay phin:

- Cch tnh nh sau:
7.2. Quy tc cng phng sai:
- C mt tng th chia thnh k t, s n v ca mi t l n
i
v
n
i
= n.
- S bnh qun chung v phng sai chung:
=
i
i
i
n
n x
x
( )

=
i
i
2
i
2
n
n x x
- S bnh qun t v phng sai t:

i
i
i
i
n
x
x

=
( )
i
i
2
i
i
2
i
n
x x
=
i
i
2
i
2
i
n
n
7.2. Quy tc cng phng sai:

- Bnh qun phng sai t:
- Phng sai ca cc s bnh qun t (phng sai gia cc t):
( )

=
i
i
2
i
2
x
n
n x x
i
- Ta c:
2
x
2
i
2
i
+ =
o e
M M x = =
V. Cc ch tiu biu th hnh dng ca phn phi:
1. Cc ch tiu biu hin s khng i xng ca phn phi:
- So snh s bnh qun, trung v, mt:
Phn phi chun i xng
o e
M M x > >
Phn phi chun lch phi
o e
M M x < <
Phn phi chun lch tri
M x
K
o
A

=
1. Cc ch tiu biu hin s khng i xng ca phn phi:
- S dng h s khng i xng:
Nu K
A
= 0: Phn phi chun i xng.
Nu K
A
<0: Phn phi chun lch tri.
Nu K
A
>0: Phn phi chun lch phi.
( )
k
i k
A x M =
( )
n
x
0 x M
k
i k
i k

= =
2. Cc ch tiu biu hin chiu cao v dc ca phn phi:
- S dng cc mmen phn phi, cng thc tng qut nh sau :
(Mmen bc k)
Trong : A l mt i lng khng i
- Nu A = 0:
x
n
x
M
i
k
= =
Mmen ban u bc 1 (k = 1):

( )
( )
n
x x
x x M
k
0 i k
0 i k

= =
- Nu A 0 v A = x
0
tu :
( )
( )
n
x x
x x M
k
i
k
i k

= =
- Nu A = x, ta c mmen trung tm:
( )
( )
2
2
i
2
i 2

n
x x
x x =
= =

Khi k = 2, ta c mmen
trung tm bc 2:
( )
( )
n
x x
x x
3
i
3
i 3

= =
trung tm bc 3:
( )
( )
n
x x
x x
4
i
4
i 4

= =
trung tm bc 4:
3
3
3
A =
- nh gi tnh cht i xng ca phn phi:
Nu A
3
= 0: Phn phi chun i xng.
Nu A
3
<0: Phn phi chun lch tri.
Nu A
3
>0: Phn phi chun lch phi.
4
4
4
A =
- Biu hin dc ca phn phi:
Nu A
4
= 0: Dy s phn phi c dc gn ging vi phn phi
chun.
Nu A
4
> 0: Dy s phn phi c dc cao hn phn phi
chun.
Nu A
4
= 0: Dy s phn phi c dc thp hn phn phi
chun.
I. Mt s vn l lun chung:
1. Khi nim iu tra chn mu:
iu tra chn mu l loi iu tra khng ton b. xc nh cc
thng s ca hin tng nghin cu, ngi ta chn ra mt s n v
nht nh iu tra, sau da vo kt qu iu tra thu thp c
suy ra kt qu ca hin tng.
2. Tng th chung v tng th mu:
- Tng th chung l tng th bao gm tt c cc n v ca hin
tng nghin cu. S n v ca tng th chung k hiu l N.
- Tng th mu l tng th bao gm mt s n v nht nh c
chn ra iu tra. S n v ca tng th mu k hiu l n.
3. Cc kiu chn mu:
- Chn ngu nhin: Khi chn mu phi m bo tnh cht hon ton
khch quan, tt c cc n v ca tng th u c c hi c chn vo
mu nh nhau, khng ph thuc vo mun ch quan ca ngi la
chn .
- Chn khng ngu nhin: Khi chn mu da vo cc thng tin
bit v tng th, da vo hiu bit ca con ngi v tng th la
chn nhng n v i biu phc v cho mc ch nghin cu.
II. iu tra chn mu ngu nhin:
1. Mt s khi nim c bn:
1.1. Chn hon li v khng hon li:
- Chn hon li c ngha l trc khi chn n v th k vo mu
nghin cu th tr li tng th chung n v th (k-1) nghin cu
xong. Nh vy, s n v ca tng th chung s khng thay i trong
sut qu trnh la chn.
- Chn khng hon li c ngha l khi mi n v c chn
iu tra ri th s c xp ring ra, khng tr v tng th chung, do
khng c kh nng c chn li. S n v ca tng th chung s gim
dn trong qu trnh la chn tng n v.
1.2. Chn mu vi xc sut u v khng u:
- Chn mu vi xc sut u c ngha l m bo mi n v ca
tng th chung u c c hi c chn vo mu nh nhau.
- Chn mu vi xc sut khng u ngha l khng cn m bo
kh nng c chn vo mu ca cc n v phi bng nhau. Cc n
v c th c chn theo xc sut t l vi vai tr ca tng n v. Xc
sut n nh ring cho mi n v v kh nng c chn vo mu gi
l xc sut bao hm.
1.3. Sai s chn mu:
- Sai s chn mu l s khc bit gia tr s m iu tra thu thp
c vi tr s tht ca n trong tng th chung.
- Sai s chn mu bao gm hai loi:
Sai s ly mu l sai s do s ly mu gy ra. Sai s ly
mu c th gim bng cch tng quy m ca mu.
Sai s khng ly mu l sai s xy ra ngoi vic ly mu,
nguyn nhn l do n v iu tra tr li sai, do ngi nghin cu v
tnh ghi chp sai Sai s khng ly mu s tng khi quy m ca mu
tng.
x
x X =
2. Cc phng php chn mu ngu nhin:
2.1. Phng php chn mu ngu nhin n gin:
- M hnh c lng:
2.1.1. c lng mc bnh qun:
Trong :
x : Mc bnh qun ca tng th mu
x
: Phm vi sai s chn mu
y l phng php chn mu t tng th chung mt cch ht
sc ngu nhin khng qua mt s sp xp no.
- Phm vi sai s chn mu c tnh nh sau:
x
= t
x
Trong :
t: H s tin cy.
x
: Sai s chn mu.
- H s tin cy (trnh tin cy) vi hm xc sut
t
c Liapunp
lp bng tnh sn. Mt s gi tr c bit ca h s tin cy nh sau:
t = 1
t
= 0,6827
t = 2
t
= 0,9545
t = 3
t
= 0,9973
Chn hon li Chn khng hon li
1 n
S
2
x
=
|
.
|
\
|

=
N
n
1
1 n
S
2
x
- Sai s chn mu c tnh nh sau:
Trong : S
2
l phng sai tng th mu
p
f p =
2.1.2. c lng t l:
- M hnh c lng:
Trong :
f : T l ca tng th mu
p
: Phm vi sai s chn mu
- Phm vi sai s chn mu c tnh nh sau:
p
= t
p
Trong :
p
: Sai s chn mu.
n
f) f(1
p

=
|
.
|
\
|

=
N
n
1
n
f) f(1
p
2.1.2. c lng t l:
x
x X =
2.2. Phng php chn mu phn loi theo t l:
thc hin chn mu phn loi theo t l, trc ht cn phn
chia cc n v ca tng th nghin cu thnh cc t c thun nht
cao, sau chn cc n v ca tng t theo phng php chn ngu
nhin. S n v c chn trong tng t tng ng vi t trng ca t
trong tng th chung.
- M hnh c lng:
=
=
=
m
1 i
i
m
1 i
i
2
i
2
i
n
n

n
2
i
x
=
|
.
|
\
|
=
N
n
1
n
2
i
x
Trong :
=
=

=
m
1 i
i
m
1 i
i i i
n
)n p (1 p
p) p(1
p
f p =
2.2.2. c lng t l:
- M hnh c lng:
n
p) p(1
p

=
|
.
|
\
|

=
N
n
1
n
p) p(1
p
Trong :
2.3. Phng php chn mu c khi (mu chm):
Chn mu c khi l phng php t chc chn mu trong
s n v mu c rt ra iu tra khng phi l tng n v l t m
tng khi n v. Nh vy, trc ht tng th chung phi c chia
thnh cc khi, sau chn ngu nhin mt s khi iu tra.
|
.
|
\
|
=
1 R
r R
r
2
x
x
=
=

=
r
1 i
i
r
1 i
i
2
i
2
x
n
n ) x x (

- M hnh c lng:
Vi
x
x X =
|
.
|
\
|

=
1 R
r R
r
) p (1 p
r r
p
=
=
=
r
1 i
i
r
1 i
i i
r
n
n p
p
p
f p =
2.3.2. c lng t l:
- M hnh c lng:
Vi
2.4. iu tra chn mu nh:
- Trong thc t c nhiu trng hp khng th iu tra mt s
n v tng i ln v n lin quan n vic hu b n v iu tra nh:
kim tra cht lng hp, th bn ca bng nV vy, ny
sinh nhu cu chn mu nh, ngha l tm hiu c im ca tng th
chung t mt mu nh (n<30).
x
x X =
- Cc m hnh c lng nh sau:
c lng mc bnh qun c lng t l
Sai s chn mu c tnh nh
sau:
Sai s chn mu c tnh nh
sau:
1 n
S
2
0
=
1 n
f) f(1
=
p
f p =
2.4. iu tra chn mu nh:
III. iu tra chn mu phi ngu nhin:
Chn mu phi ngu nhin l vic la chn cc n v vo mu
iu tra da trn kinh nghim v hiu bit ca con ngi v tng th
nghin cu. Chn mu phi ngu nhin khng hon ton da vo cc c
s ton hc nh chn mu ngu nhin m ch yu i hi phi kt hp
cht ch gia phn tch l lun vi thc t x hi. S nhn xt ch
quan ca ngi t chc c nh hng ln n cht lng iu tra.
V vy, cht lng ti liu iu tra tt phi gii quyt cc vn
sau:
- Phi phn t chnh xc i tng iu tra: Khi phn t chnh xc
th cc n v trong cng mt t s khng khc nhau nhiu, lm cho
vic c lng c chnh xc cao.
- La chn n v iu tra: Trong chn mu phi ngu nhin ngi
ta chn cc n v in hnh c kh nng i din cho tng b phn
khc nhau trong tng th nghin cu.
- Xc nh s n v iu tra: Phi cn c vo mc phc tp
ca tng th nghin cu xc nh s n v iu tra, nu tng th
cng phc tp th s n v iu tra s cng nhiu.
- Sai s chn mu: Sai s chn mu trong chn phi ngu nhin
khng th tnh ton bng cc phng php ton hc m phi thng qua
nhn xt, so snh c lng.
I. Mi lin h gia cc hin tng:
- Khi nghin cu mi lin h, nu xt theo trnh cht ch th c
th phn thnh hai loi l lin h hm s v lin h tng quan.
Lin h hm s l mi lin h hon ton cht ch v c
biu hin di dng hm s y = f(x). iu c ngha l khi i lng x
bin i theo mt quy tc no th c th xc nh gi tr tng ng
ca i lng y.
Lin h tng quan l mi lin h khng hon ton cht ch
v c biu hin ch khi mt hin tng bin i th n lm cho hin
tng lin quan bin i theo nhng n khng c nh hng hon ton
quyt nh n s bin i ny.
- Phng php hi quy v tng quan l mt phng php
thng c s dng nghin cu mi lin h tng quan. Phng
php ny nhm gii quyt hai nhim v nghin cu sau:
Xc nh phng trnh hi quy, tc l biu din mi lin h
di dng mt hm s.
nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h.
I. Mi lin h gia cc hin tng:
Tn cng nhn Tui ngh (nm) NSL (sp)
A
B
C
D
E
G
H
I
K
L
1
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
12
9
16
12
21
21
24
19
27
II. Lin h tng quan tuyn tnh gia hai tiu thc s lng:
1. Phng trnh hi quy:
- V d 6.1: Gi s c ti liu v tui ngh (nm) v nng sut lao
ng (sp) ca 10 cng nhn trong mt doanh nghip nh sau:
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
NSL (y)
Tui ngh (x)
ng hi quy thc t
ng hi quy l thuyt
Biu din mi lin h gia tui ngh v NSL trn th, ta c:
bx a y
x
+ =
0 ) y
(y S
n
1 i
2
xi i
= =
=
- Phng trnh hi quy c dng:
- Cc tham s a, b ca phng trnh hi quy c xc nh bng
phng php bnh phng b nht, tc l c xc nh trn c s
tng bnh phng cc lch gia tr s thc t v tr s l thuyt t
cc tiu, ngha l:
=
c
c
=
c
c
0
b
S
0
a
S

+ =
+ =

= = =
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i i
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i
x b x a y x
x b na y
x b y a

y . x xy
b
2
x
=
=
Gii h, ta c
Cc tham s a v b cn c tnh nh sau:
- Mun vy, o hm ring ca cc tham s phi trit tiu, ta c h
phng trnh chun sau:
Tn cng nhn Tui ngh (x
i
) NSL (y
i
) x
i
y
i
x
i
2
A
B
C
D
E
G
H
I
K
L
1
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
12
9
16
12
21
21
24
19
27
3
36
36
80
84
168
189
240
209
324
1
9
16
25
49
64
81
100
121
144
Cng 70 164 1.369 610
Vi s liu ca v d 6.1, ta c bng s liu sau:
1,84x 3,52 y
x
+ =
- Thay vo h phng trnh, ta c:
164 = 10a + 70b
1.369 = 70a + 610b
- Gii h, ta c:
a = 3,52 v b = 1,84
- Vy dng c th ca phng trnh hi quy l:
y x

y . x xy
r

=
y
x
b r =
2. H s tng quan:
- H s tng quan (k hiu: r) l mt s tng i dng nh
gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h tng quan tuyn tnh. H s tng
quan c th tnh theo mt s cng thc sau:
Hoc
- H s tng quan c mt s tnh cht sau:
-1 r 1
Khi r mang du dng ta c tng quan thun gia x v y,
khi r mang du m ta c mi tng quan nghch.
Khi r = 1 (hoc r = -1) th gia x v y c mi lin h hm s.
Khi r cng gn 1 (hoc -1) th lin h tng quan cng cht
ch.
Khi r = 0 th gia x v y khng c mi lin h tng quan.
2. H s tng quan:
x
i
y
j
x
1
x
2
x
i
x
m
ny
j
y
1
y
2
y
j
y
k
nx
1
y
1
nx
2
y
1
nx
i
y
1

nx
m
y
1
nx
1
y
2
nx
2
y
2
nx
i
y
2

nx
m
y
2
nx
1
y
j
nx
2
y
j
nx
i
y
j
nx
m
y
j
nx
1
y
k
nx
2
y
k
nx
i
y
k
nx
m
y
k
ny
1
ny
2
ny
j
ny
k
nx
i
nx
1
nx
2
nx
i
nx
m
N
. Lu :
- Trng hp ti liu c phn t kt hp theo tiu thc nguyn
nhn x v tiu thc kt qu y, ta s c bng tng quan nh sau:

= = = =
= = =
m
1 i
k
1 j
j i
k
1 j
j
m
1 i
i
y nx ny nx N
- Trong :
nx
i
: Tn s ca lng bin x
i
.
ny
j
: Tn s ca lng bin y
j
.
nx
i
y
j
: Tn s ca lng bin x
i
y
j
.
N: Tng s n v tng th.
- Khi tnh cc tham s a, b v h s tng quan r phi nhn vi cc
tn s tng ng.
. Lu :
III. Lin h tng quan phi tuyn gia hai tiu thc s lng:
2
x
cx bx a y
+ + =
1. Cc phng trnh hi quy:
1.1. Phng trnh Parabol bc 2:
- Phng trnh Parabol bc 2 p dng trong trng hp khi tr s
ca tiu thc nguyn nhn tng ln th tr s ca tiu thc kt qu tng
(hoc gim), vic tng (hoc gim) t n tr s cc i (hoc cc tiu)
th sau gim (hoc tng).
+ + =
+ + =
+ + =

= = = =
= = = =
= = =
n
1 i
n
1 i
4
i
n
1 i
3
i
2
i
n
1 i
i
2
i
n
1 i
n
1 i
n
1 i
3
i
2
i i
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i i
n
1 i
i
x c x b x a y x
x c x b x a y x
x c x b na y
- Cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy c xc nh bng
phng php bnh phng b nht v l nghim ca h phng trnh
sau:
1.1. Phng trnh Parabol bc 2:
1.2. Phng trnh Hypebol:
x
b
a y
x
+ =
- Phng trnh Hypebol c p dng trong trng hp khi tr s
ca tiu thc nguyn nhn tng ln th tr s ca tiu thc kt qu c th
gim v n mt gii hn no th hu nh khng gim na.
+ =
+ =

= = =
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i i
n
1 i
i
i
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i
x
1
b
x
1
a
x
y
x
1
b na y
1.2. Phng trnh Hypebol:
sau:
1.3. Phng trnh hm m:
- Phng trnh hm m c p dng trong trng hp khi tr s
ca tiu thc nguyn nhn tng ln th tr s ca tiu thc kt qu thay
i theo cp s nhn (tc l c tc pht trin xp x nhau).
x
x
ab y
=
sau:
+ =
+ =

= = =
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i i
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i
x lgb x lga lgy x
x lgb n.lga lgy
2. T s tng quan:
- T s tng quan (k hiu: ) l mt s tng i dng nh
gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h tng quan phi tuyn.
- Khi c mi lin h gia tiu thc nguyn nhn (x) v tiu thc kt
qu (y), ta c cc loi phng sai sau:
Phng sai chung: Phn nh s bin thin ca tiu thc y do
nh hng bi tt c cc nguyn nhn, trong c nguyn nhn x.
Phng sai phn nh s bin thin ca tiu thc y do nh
hng bi ring tiu thc nguyn nhn x.
Phng sai phn nh s bin thin ca tiu thc y do nh
hng bi cc nguyn nhn khc, tr tiu thc x.
( )
( )
=
=
=
n
1 i
2
i
n
1 i
2
x i
y y
y
y
1
i
2. T s tng quan:
- T s tng quan c tnh nh sau:
2. T s tng quan:
- T s tng quan c mt s tnh cht sau:
0 1
Nu = 0 th khng c lin h tng quan gia x v y.
Nu = 1 th c lin h hm s gia x v y.
Nu cng gn 1 th lin h tng quan cng cht ch.
r. Nu = r th gia x v y c lin h tng quan tuyn
tnh.
IV. Lin h tng quan tuyn tnh gia nhiu tiu thc s lng:
- Trong thc t, mt kt qu c th chu tc ng bi nhiu nguyn
nhn. Do , vn t ra l cn nghin cu mi lin h gia mt tiu
thc kt qu vi mt s tiu thc nguyn nhn.
- V mt l thuyt, c th ni nu s tiu thc nguyn nhn cng
nhiu th cng phn nh mt cch y mi lin h, song vic tnh
ton cng tr nn phc tp. Do ch nn chn nhng tiu thc nguyn
nhn c tc ng ln i vi tiu thc kt qu.
- Sau khi chn c cc tiu thc nguyn nhn c nh hng
ln n tiu thc kt qu th phi chn dng ca phng trnh hi quy
phn nh mi lin h . Thng thng, n gin vic tnh ton
ngi ta thng chn dng tuyn tnh.
k k 2 2 1 1 0 ...x x x
x a ... x a x a a y
k 2 1
+ + + + =
+ + + + =
+ + + + =
+ + + + =
+ + + + =

2
k k k 2 2 k 1 1 k 0 k
k 2 k
2
2 2 2 1 1 2 0 2
k 1 k 2 1 2
2
1 1 1 0 1
k k 2 2 1 1 0
x a ... x x a x x a x a y x
...
x x a ... x a x x a x a y x
x x a ... x x a x a x a y x
x a ... x a x a na y
Cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy c xc nh bng phng
php bnh phng b nht v l nghim ca h phng trnh sau:
Trng hp c hai tiu thc nguyn nhn tc ng ti tiu thc kt
qu, phng trnh hi quy nh sau:
2 2 1 1 0 x x
x a x a a y
2 1
+ + =
Cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy l nghim ca h phng
trnh sau:
+ + =
+ + =
+ + =

2
2 2 2 1 1 2 0 2
2 1 2
2
1 1 1 0 1
2 2 1 1 0
x a x x a x a y x
x x a x a x a y x
x a x a na y
2. H s tng quan:
- nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h tng quan tuyn
tnh gia nhiu tiu thc s lng, ngi ta thng dng hai loi h s
tng quan l h s tng quan bi v h s tng quan ring.
- H s tng quan bi (k hiu l R) c dng nh gi trnh
cht ch ca mi lin h gia tiu thc kt qu v tt c cc tiu thc
nguyn nhn.
- Cng thc nh sau:
( )
( )
=
2
2
...x x x
...x x yx
y y
y
y
1 R
k 2 1
k 2 1
2.1. H s tng quan bi:
2
x x
x x yx yx
2
yx
2
yx
x yx
2 1
2 1 2 1 2 1
2 1
r 1
.r .r 2r r r
R
+
=
- Trng hp c hai tiu thc nguyn nhn, h s tng quan bi
c tnh nh sau:
( )
( )
=
=
=
n
1 i
2
i
n
1 i
2
x x i
x yx
y y
y
y
1 R
2 1
2 1
Hoc:
- H s tng quan bi c mt s tnh cht sau:
0 R 1
Nu R = 0 th khng c lin h tng quan tuyn tnh.
Nu R = 1 th c lin h hm s.
Nu R cng gn 1 th lin h tng quan cng cht ch.
2.2. H s tng quan ring:
( )( )
2
x x
2
yx
x x yx yx
) (x yx
2 1 2
2 1 2 1
2 1
r 1 r 1
.r r r
r

=
- H s tng quan ring c dng nh gi trnh cht ch
mi lin h gia tiu thc kt qu vi tng tiu thc nguyn nhn vi
iu kin loi tr nh hng ca cc tiu thc nguyn nhn khc.
- Trng hp c 2 tiu thc nguyn nhn, h s tng quan ring
c tnh nh sau:
H s tng quan ring gia y v x
1
(loi tr nh hng ca
x
2
).
2.2. H s tng quan ring:
y
x
i i
a
i
=
H s tng quan ring gia y v x
2
(loi tr nh hng ca
x
1
).
( )( )
2
x x
2
yx
x x yx yx
) (x yx
2 1 1
2 1 1 2
1 2
r 1 r 1
.r r r
r

=
- Trong nghin cu lin h tng quan gia nhiu tiu thc, cn
phi nh gi mc nh hng ca tng tiu thc nguyn nhn n
tiu thc kt qu. iu ny c thc hin bng cch tnh cc tham s
tng quan chun ho :
V. co dn:
1. co dn tuyt i:
- Gi s c phng trnh hi quy: y = f(x) ; MX: (a,b)
- Ti x = x
0
MX, ta c: y
0
= f(x
0
)
- Gi x l s gia ca x, x = x
0
+ x
- Gi y l s gia ca y, y = f(x
0
+ x) - f(x
0
)
- co dn tuyt i cho bit ti x = x
0
, khi x thay i 1 n v th y
thay i bao nhiu n v.
- Gi E(x
0
) l co dn tuyt i ca y theo x ti x = x
0
, ta c:
E(x
0
) = f(x
0
)
) f(x
x
) (x f ) (x E
0
0
0
'
0
'
=
2. co dn tng i:
- co dn tng i (h s co dn) cho bit ti x = x
0
khi x thay
i 1% th y thay i bao nhiu phn trm.
- Gi E(x
0
) l co dn tng i ca y theo x ti x = x
0
, ta c:
2. co dn tng i:
- co dn tng i (h s co dn) c mt s tnh cht sau:
Nu E(x) > 0: S bin thin ca x v y l cng chiu v
ngc li.
Nu E(x) > 1: S bin thin ca y nhanh hn s bin thin
ca x.
Nu E(x) < 1: S bin thin ca y chm hn s bin thin
ca x.
Nu E(x) = 1: S bin thin ca y trng vi s bin thin
ca x.
Nu E(x) = 0: y l hm khng i.
I. Khi nim, phn loi dy s thi gian:
1. Khi nim:
- Dy s thi gian l dy cc tr s ca ch tiu thng k c sp
xp theo th t thi gian.
- Dy s thi gian bao gm hai thnh phn l thi gian v ch tiu
v hin tng nghin cu. Thi gian c th l ngy, thng, qu, nm
Ch tiu v hin tng nghin cu c th l s tuyt i, s tng i,
s bnh qun Tr s ca ch tiu c gi l mc ca dy s.
Nm 2002 2003 2004 2005
Gi tr sn xut (triu ng) 2.000 2.500 3.200 4.000
2. Phn loi:
- Dy s thi k: Biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin tng
trong tng khong thi gian nht nh.
V d 7.1: C s liu v gi tr sn xut ca mt doanh nghip nh
sau:
2. Phn loi:
- Dy s thi im: Biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin tng
ti nhng thi im nht nh.
Ngy 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10
Gi tr hng tn kho (triu ng) 50 60 70 80
V d 7.2: C s liu v gi tr hng tn kho ca mt doanh nghip
nh sau:
n
y
n
y ... y y
y
n
1 i
i
n 2 1

=
=
+ + +
=
II. Cc ch tiu phn tch dy s thi gian:
1. Mc bnh qun theo thi gian:
1.1. i vi dy s thi k:
- Ch tiu ny phn nh mc i biu ca cc mc tuyt i
trong mt dy s thi gian.
1.2. i vi dy s thi im:
1 - n
2
y
y ... y
2
y
y
n
1 - n 2
1
+ + + +
=
- Trng hp khong cch gia cc thi im u nhau:
=
=
=
n
1 i
i
n
1 i
i i
t
t y
y
- Trng hp khong cch gia cc thi im khng u nhau:
( ) n 2, i y y
1 i i i
= =

2. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i:
- L chnh lch tuyt i gia mc ca k nghin cu vi mc
ca mt k gc no . Tu theo mc ch nghin cu, ta c cc
lng tng hoc gim tuyt i nh sau:
2.1. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon:
ca k ng ngay trc .
n
n
2 i
i
=
=
2.2. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc:
ca mt k gc c nh, thng l k u tin.
( ) n 2, i y y
1 i i
= =
- Mi lin h gia lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon v lng
tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc:
1 n
y y
1 n
1 n
1 n n
n
2 i
i
=

=
2.3. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i bnh qun:
- L mc bnh qun ca cc lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin
hon.
( ) n 2, i
y
y
t
1 i
i
i
= =
3. Tc pht trin:
- L t l so snh gia mc ca k nghin cu vi mc ca
mt k gc no . Tu theo mc ch nghin cu, ta c cc tc pht
trin nh sau:
3.1. Tc pht trin lin hon:
k ng ngay trc .
n
n
2 i
i
T t =
[
=
i
1 - i
i
t
T
T
=
( ) n 2, i
y
y
T
1
i
i
= =
3.2. Tc pht trin nh gc:
mt k gc c nh, thng l k u tin.
- Mi quan h gia tc pht trin lin hon v tc pht trin
nh gc.
v
1 n
1
n
1 n
n
1 n
n
2 i
i
y
y
T t t
=
= = =
[
3.3. Tc pht trin bnh qun:
- L s bnh qun nhn ca cc tc pht trin lin hon.
( ) n 2, i 100 t a
i i
= =
4. Tc tng (gim):
- Ch tiu ny phn nh mc ca hin tng gia hai thi gian
tng (gim) bao nhiu ln hoc bao nhiu phn trm. Tng ng vi
cc tc pht trin, ta c cc tc tng (gim) nh sau:
4.1. Tc tng (gim) lin hon:
- L t l gia lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon vi mc k
gc lin hon.
( ) n 2, i 1 t
y
y y
y
a
i
1 i
1 i i
1 i
i
i
= =
= =
Hoc (nu t
i
tnh bng %)
4.2. Tc tng (gim) nh gc:
- L t l gia lng tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc vi mc k
gc c nh (thng l k u tin).
( ) n 2, i 1 T
y
y y
y
A
i
1
1 i
1
i
i
= =
= =
( ) n 2, i 100 T A
i i
= = (nu T
i
tnh bng %)
Hoc
4.3. Tc tng (gim) bnh qun:
- L ch tiu phn nh tc tng (gim) i biu trong sut thi
gian nghin cu.
1 t a =
100 (%) t (%) a =
Hoc
( ) n 2, i
100
y
x100
y

(%) a

g
1 i
1 i
i
i
i
i
i
= = = =

5. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng (gim):

- Ch tiu ny phn nh c 1% tng (gim) ca tc tng (gim)
lin hon tng ng vi mt tr s tuyt i l bao nhiu.
III. Mt s phng php biu hin xu hng bin ng c bn
ca hin tng:
1. Phng php m rng khong cch thi gian:
Phng php ny c s dng khi mt dy s thi k c khong
cch thi gian tng i ngn v c nhiu mc m qua cha
phn nh c xu hng bin ng ca hin tng.
- V d 7.3: C s liu v doanh thu hng thng ca mt ca hng
nm 2006 nh sau:
Thng
Doanh thu
(1.000)
Thng
Doanh thu
(1.000)
Thng
Doanh thu
(1.000)
1 404.000 5 422.000 9 494.000
2 368.000 6 485.000 10 489.000
3 406.000 7 408.000 11 462.000
4 380.000 8 448.000 12 422.000
- Dy s trn cho thy, doanh thu cc thng ca ca hng lc tng,
lc gim khng ni r xu hng bin ng. Ngi ta c th m rng
khong cch thi gian t thng sang qu:
Qu Doanh thu (1.000)
1 1.178.000
2 1.287.000
3 1.350.000
4 1.373.000
3
y y y
y
3 2 1
2
+ +
=
3
y y y
y
4 3 2
3
+ +
=
3
y y y
y
n 1 - n 2 - n
1 - n
+ +
=
1 n 3 2
y ..., , y , y

2. Phng php s trung bnh trt (di ng):
- S trung bnh trt (s trung bnh di ng) l s trung bnh cng
ca mt nhm nht nh cc mc ca dy s c tnh bng cch ln
lt loi dn cc mc u, ng thi thm vo cc mc tip theo
sao cho tng s lng cc mc tham gia tnh s trung bnh khng
thay i.
- Gi s c dy s thi gian: y
1
, y
2
, y
3
, , y
n-2
, y
n-1
, y
n
- Nu tnh s trung bnh trt cho nhm ba mc , ta c:
- T ta c dy s mi:
2. Phng php s trung bnh trt (di ng):
- V d 7.4: Vi s liu ca v d 7.3, ta tnh s trung bnh trt cho
nhm ba mc nh sau:
Thng
Doanh
thu (y
i
)
S trung bnh
trt (y
i
)
Thng Doanh
thu (y
i
)
S trung bnh
trt (y
i
)
1 404.000 - 7 408.000 447.000
2 368.000 392.666,7 8 448.000 450.000
3 406.000 384.666,7 9 494.000 477.000
4 380.000 402.666,7 10 489.000 481.666,7
5 422.000 429.000 11 462.000 457.666,7
6 485.000 438.333,3 12 422.000 -
3. Phng php biu hin bin ng thi v:
- S bin ng ca mt s hin tng kinh t - x hi thng c
tnh thi v, ngha l hng nm, trong tng thi gian nht nh, s bin
ng thng lp li. Nguyn nhn gy ra bin ng thi v l do nh
hng ca iu kin t nhin, phong tc, tp qun sinh hot ca dn c.
- Nghin cu bin ng thi v nhm ra nhng ch trng, bin
php ph hp, kp thi, hn ch nhng nh hng ca bin ng thi v
i vi sn xut v sinh hot x hi.
x100
y
y
I
0
i
i
=
i
y
0
y
- Trng hp bin ng thi v qua nhng thi gian nht nh ca
cc nm tng i n nh (ti thiu 3 nm), khng c lng tng (gim)
r rt th ch s thi v c tnh nh sau:
Trong :
: S bnh qun ca cc mc
ca cc thi gian cng tn i.
: S bnh qun ca tt c cc
mc trong dy s.
Nm j
Qu i
Doanh thu (1.000.000 )
I
i
(%)
2004 2005 2006
1 1.200 1.250 1380 1.276,7 49,48
2 2.500 2.830 3.010 2.780,0 107,75
3 4.100 4.370 4.530 4.333,3 167,96
4 1.820 1.960 2.010 1.930,0 74,81
Cng 9.620 10.410 10.930 2.580,0 -
i
y
- V d 7.5: C s liu v doanh thu ca mt ca hng nh sau:
1.276,7
3
1.380 1.250 1.200
y
1
=
+ +
=
2780,0
3
3.010 2.830 2.500
y
2
=
+ +
=
4.333,3
3
4.530 4.370 4.100
y
3
=
+ +
=
930 . 1
3
010 . 2 960 . 1 1.820
y
4
=
+ +
=
- Vi s liu trn, ta tnh mc doanh thu bnh qun hng qu nh
sau:
2.580,0
12
y
y
4
1 i
3
1 j
ij
0
= =

= =
- S bnh qun ca tt c cc mc l:
74,81 x100
2.580,0
1.930,0
y
y
I
0
4
4
= = =
107,75 x100
2.580,0
2.780,0
y
y
I
0
2
2
= = =
49,48 x100
2.580,0
1.276,7
y
y
I
0
1
1
= = =
167,96 x100
2.580,0
4.333,3
y
y
I
0
3
3
= = =
- Cc ch s thi v c tnh nh sau:
4. Phng php hi quy:
- Trn c s ca dy s thi gian, ngi ta xy dng mt phng
trnh hi quy phn nh s bin ng ca hin tng theo thi gian.
- la chn ng n dng ca phng trnh hi quy, ngi ta
thng da vo vic phn tch c im bin ng ca hin tng kt
hp vi mt s phng php n gin khc nh da vo th, da
vo lng tng (gim) tuyt i, da vo tc pht trin
t a a y
1 0 t
+ =
4.1. Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh:
- Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh thng c s dng trong
trng hp cc lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon (cc sai phn bc
1) xp x nhau.
+ =
+ =

= = =
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i 1 i 0
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
i 1 0
n
1 i
i
t a t a y t
t a na y
- Cc tham s a
0
v a
1
c tnh nh sau:
4.2. Phng trnh hi quy parabol bc 2:
- Phng trnh hi quy parabol bc 2 thng c s dng trong
trng hp cc sai phn bc 2 xp x nhau.
+ + =
+ + =
+ + =

= = = =
= = = =
= = =
n
1 i
n
1 i
4
i 2
n
1 i
3
i 1
2
i 0
n
1 i
i
2
i
n
1 i
n
1 i
3
i 2
n
1 i
2
i 1 i 0
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
2
i 2
n
1 i
i 1 0
n
1 i
i
t a t a t a y t
t a t a t a y t
t a t a na y
- Cc tham s a
0
, a
1
v a
2
c tnh nh sau:
2
2 1 0 t
t a t a a y
+ + =
+ =
+ =

= = =
= =
n
1 i
n
1 i
2
i 1 i 0
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
i 1 0
n
1 i
i
t lga t lga lgy t
t lga n.lga lgy
CHNG 7
PHN TCH DY S THI GIAN
- Phng trnh hm m thng c s dng trong trng hp
cc tc pht trin lin hon xp x nhau.
- Cc tham s a
0
v a
1
c tnh nh sau:
t
1 0 t
a a y
=
CHNG 7
PHN TCH DY S THI GIAN
. Lu :
- Nu trn th biu hin mc thc t ca hin tng theo thi
gian c th xy dng c mt s hm xu th khc nhau th chn hm
xu th no c sai s chun ca m hnh nh nht.
- Sai s chun ca m hnh (SE) c tnh nh sau:
( )
p n
y
y
SE
2
t t
=

Trong :
y
t
: Mc thc tca hin tng thi gian t.
t
: Mc ca hin tng thi gian t c tnh t hm xu th.
n: S lng cc mc ca dy s thi gian.
p: S lng cc h s ca hm xu th.
I. Khi nim, phn loi ch s:
1. Khi nim:
- Ch s thng k l phng php biu hin mi quan h t l so
snh gia hai mc ca mt hin tng.
2. Phn loi:
- Cn c vo phm vi tnh ton, ch s c chia thnh hai loi l
ch s n v ch s chung.
Ch s n (ch s c th) phn nh s bin ng ca tng
n v, tng phn t ca hin tng nghin cu.
Ch s chung (ch s tng hp) phn nh s bin ng ca
tt cc cc n v, cc phn t ca hin tng nghin cu.
2. Phn loi:
- Cn c vo tnh cht ca ch tiu, ch s c chia thnh hai loi
l ch s ca ch tiu cht lng v ch s ca ch tiu khi lng.
Ch s ca ch tiu cht lng phn nh s bin ng ca cc
ch tiu nh gi thnh, gi bn, nng sut lao ng bnh qun, tin lng
bnh qun
Ch s ca ch tiu khi lng phn nh s bin ng ca cc
ch tiu nh s lng sn phm, s lng cng nhn, din tch gieo
trng...
0
1
p
p
p
i =
0
1
q
q
q
i =
II. Phng php tnh ch s:
1. Phng php tnh ch s n:
- Ch s n v gi bn:
- Ch s n v lng hng tiu th:
Tn
hng
n
v
tnh
Gi bn n v
(1.000)
Lng tiu th
i
p
i
q
K gc K bo co K gc K bo co
A
B
C
Kg
m
ci
8
11
5
8,2
22
3
600
500
4.000
700
3.000
9.000
1,025
2
0,6
1,167
6
2,25
- V d 9.1: C s liu ca mt th trng nh sau:
1. Phng php tnh ch s n:
=
q p
q p
I
0
1
p
=
0 0
0 1
p
q p
q p
I
=
1 0
1 1
p
q p
q p
I
2. Phng php tnh ch s chung:
2.1. Ch s chung v gi bn:
Nu quyn s c chn l
sn lng k gc, ta c ch
s chung ca Laspeyres
Nu quyn s c chn l
sn lng k bo co, ta c
ch s chung ca Paashe
0,921
30.300
27.920
4.000 x 5 500 x 11 600 x 8
4.000 x 3 500 x 22 600 x 8,2
I
p
= =
+ +
+ +
=
1,181
83.600
98.740
5x9.000 11x3.000 8x700
3x9.000 22x3.000 8,2x700
I
p
= =
+ +
+ +
=
- Vi s liu ca v d 9.1, ta tnh c cc ch s chung v gi nh
sau:
Theo cng thc ca Laspeyres:
Theo cng thc ca Paashe:
=
0
1
q
pq
pq
I
=
0 0
1 0
q
q p
q p
I

=
0 1
1 1
q
q p
q p
I
2.2. Ch s chung v lng hng tiu th:
Nu quyn s c chn l
gi bn k gc, ta c ch s
chung ca Laspeyres
Nu quyn s c chn l
gi bn k bo co, ta c ch
s chung ca Paashe
2,759
30.300
83.600
4.000 x 5 500 x 11 600 x 8
9.000 x 5 3.000 x 11 700 x 8
I
q
= =
+ +
+ +
=
- Vi s liu ca v d 9.1, ta tnh c cc ch s chung v lng
hng tiu th nh sau:
Theo cng thc ca Laspeyres:
3,537
27.920
98.740
3x4.000 22x500 8,2x600
3x9.000 22x3.000 8,2x700
I
q
= =
+ +
+ +
=
Theo cng thc ca Paashe:
2.3. Vn chn quyn s cho ch s chung:
- Quyn s l i lng c dng trong cng thc tnh ch s
chung v c c nh c t s v mu s. Quyn s c cc vai tr
sau:
Biu hin tm quan trng ca tng b phn trong tng th. B
phn no chim t trng cng ln th cng c nh hng ln i vi s
bin ng chung ca tng th.
Chuyn cc n v, cc phn t vn khc nhau tr thnh dng
ging nhau c th trc tip cng c.
- i vi ch s ca ch tiu cht lng, quyn s s l ch tiu khi
lng tng ng. i vi ch s ca ch tiu khi lng, quyn s s l
ch tiu cht lng tng ng.
= = =
0 0
0 0 p
0 0
0 0
0
1
0 0
0 1
p
q p
q p i
q p
q p
p
p
q p
q p
I
= = =
p
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
0
1 1
1 0
1 1
p
i
q p
q p
q p
p
p
q p
q p
q p
I
3. Vn dng ch s n tnh ch s chung:
3.1. Vn dng ch s n v gi tnh ch s chung v gi:
- Theo cng thc ca Laspeyres:
- Theo cng thc ca Paashe:
= = =
0 0
0 0 q
0 0
0 0
0
1
0 0
1 0
q
q p
q p i
q p
q p
q
q
q p
q p
I
= = =
q
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
0
1 1
0 1
1 1
q
i
q p
q p
q p
q
q
q p
q p
q p
I
3.2. Vn dng ch s n v lng tnh ch s chung v
lng hng tiu th:
4. Ch s chung vi quyn s l t trng:

= = =
0 p
0 0
0 0
p
0 0
0 0 p
p
d i
q p
q p
i
q p
q p i
I
Vi
=
0 0
0 0
0
q p
q p
d
Vi
=
1 1
1 1
1
q p
q p
d

= = = =
p
1
1 1
1 1
p
1 1
1 1
p p
1 1
1 1
p
i
d
1
q p
q p
i
1
1
q p
q p
i
1
1
i
q p
q p
I

= = =
0 q
0 0
0 0
q
0 0
0 0 q
q
d i
q p
q p
i
q p
q p i
I
Vi
=
0 0
0 0
0
q p
q p
d
Vi
=
1 1
1 1
1
q p
q p
d

= = = =
q
1
1 1
1 1
q
1 1
1 1
q q
1 1
1 1
q
i
d
1
q p
q p
i
1
1
q p
q p
i
1
1
i
q p
q p
I
( )
( )
+
+
=
B A B
B A A
p(A/B)
q q p
q q p
I
5. Ch s khng gian:
5.1. Ch s khng gian v gi bn:
5.2. Ch s khng gian v lng hng tiu th:
=
B
A
q(A/B)
q p
q p
I
B A
B B A A
q q
q p q p
p
+
+
=
Vi
Tn hng
Ca hng A
Ca hng B
Gi bn
(1.000/kt)
Lng tiu
th (kt)
Gi bn
(1.000/kt)
Lng tiu
th (kt)
1. Bia Halida
2. Bia Tiger
145
190
80
100
140
198
100
90
- V d 9.2: C s liu ca hai ca hng nh sau:
5.3. V d:
- Vi s liu trn, ta tnh c cc ch s khng gian nh sau:
99 , 0
820 . 62
200 . 62
) 90 100 ( 198 ) 100 80 ( 140
) 90 100 ( 190 ) 100 80 ( 145
I
p(A/B)
= =
+ + +
+ + +
=
22 , 142
100 80
100 x 140 80 x 145
p
H
=
+
+
=
0,971
31.663,1
30.756,6
193,79x90 142,22x100
193,79x100 142,22x80
I
q(A/B)
= =
+
+
=
79 , 193
90 100
90 x 198 100 x 190
p
T
=
+
+
=
5.3. V d:
III. H thng ch s:
1. Khi nim v cu thnh h thng ch s:
1.1. Khi nim:
- H thng ch s l mt dy cc ch s c lin h vi nhau, hp
thnh mt phng trnh cn bng.
1.2. Cu thnh ca h thng ch s:
- Cu thnh ca h thng ch s bao gm ch s ton b v cc ch
s nhn t:
Ch s ton b phn nh s bin ng ca hin tng do
nh hng bi tt c cc nhn t cu thnh.
Ch s nhn t phn nh s bin ng ca hin tng do
nh hng bi tng nhn t cu thnh.
= =
i
i
i
i
i i
f
f
x
f
f x
x
2. Vn dng h thng ch s phn tch s bin ng ca ch
tiu bnh qun v tng lng bin tiu thc:
- Ta c phng trnh kinh t sau:
2.1. H thng ch s phn tch s bin ng ca ch tiu bnh
qun:
- Tc ng ti ch tiu bnh qun c hai nhn t l lng bin v kt
cu tng th.
- Xy dng h thng ch s:
qun:
(3) (2) (1)
x
x

x
x
x
x
0
01
01
1
0
1
=
Ch s (1) phn nh s bin ng ca ch tiu bnh qun do nh
hng bi ng thi c hai nhn t l lng bin v kt cu tng th.
hng bi bn thn lng bin.
hng bi kt cu tng th.
- Chnh lch tuyt i:
qun:
) x x ( ) x x ( x x
0 01 01 1 0 1
+ =
=
1
1 1
1
f
f x
x
Trong :
=
0
0 0
0
f
f x
x
=
1
1 0
01
f
f x
x
- Phn tch, nh gi: a ra cc nhn xt v s bin ng ca ch
tiu nghin cu v mc nh hng ca tng nhn t.
Tn
phn
xng
Sn lng
(1.000sp)
S cng nhn
(ngi)
NSL
(1.000sp/ngi)
KG KBC KG KBC KG KBC
A
B
90
420
320
140
30
70
80
20
3
6
4
7
Cng 510 460 100 100 5,1 4,6
- V d 9.3: C s liu v nng sut lao ng ca mt doanh nghip
nh sau:
qun:
= =
T
T
W
T
WT
W
- Vi s liu ca v d 9.3, ta tin hnh phn tch s bin ng ca
NSL bnh qun nh sau:
qun:
Xy dng phng trnh kinh t:
Xc nh cc nhn t nh hng: Tc ng ti NSL bnh
qun chung ca doanh nghip c hai nhn t l mc NSL ca tng
phn xng v kt cu cng nhn ca cc phn xng .
( ) ( ) 0 01 01 1 0 1 W W W W W W + =
qun:
Xy dng h thng ch s:
0
01
01
1
0
1
W
W
W
W
W
W
=
S tuyt i:
,1 5
70 30
0 7 6 30 3
T
T W
W
0
0 0
0 =
+
+
= =
,6 3
20 80
20 6 80 3
T
T W
W
1
1 0
01
=
+
+
= =

qun:
Tnh ton cc ch tiu:
4,6
20 80
20 7 80 4
T
T W
W
1
1 1
1
=
+
+
= =
706 , 0 278 , 1 902 , 0 =

) 1 , 5 6 , 3 ( ) 6 , 3 6 , 4 ( 1 , 5 6 , 4 + =
) 5 , 1 ( 1 ) 5 , 0 ( + =
qun:
Thay vo h thng ch s, ta c:
5,1
3,6
3,6
4,6
5,1
4,6
=
S tuyt i:
qun:
Nhn xt: Nng sut lao ng bnh qun chung cho ton
doanh nghip k bo co so vi k gc gim 9,8%, v s tuyt i gim
0,5 (1.000sp/ngi) do nh hng bi cc nhn t sau:
Do mc NSL ca cc phn xng tng lm cho NSL
bnh qun chung tng 27,8%, v s tuyt i tng 1 (1.000sp/ngi).
Do kt cu cng nhn ca cc phn xng thay i lm
nng sut lao ng bnh qun chung gim 29,4%, v s tuyt i gim
1,5 (1.000sp/ngi).
2.2. H thng ch s phn tch s bin ng ca tng lng
bin tiu thc:
2.2.1. Phn tch s bin ng ca tng lng bin tiu
thc do nh hng bi lng bin v tn s:
=
i i
f x M
- Tc ng ti tng lng bin c hai nhn t l bn thn lng
bin v s n v (tn s) tng ng.
- H thng ch s:
(3) (2) (1)
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
0 0
1 0
1 0
1 1
0 0
1 1
=
Ch s (1) phn nh s bin ng ca tng lng bin do nh
hng bi ng thi c hai nhn t l lng bin v tn s.
hng bi tn s.
- S tuyt i:
( )
( )

+ =
0 0 1 0
1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
f x f x
f x f x f x f x
- Nhn xt v s bin ng ca tng lng bin v mc nh
hng ca tng nhn t.
- V d 9.4: C s liu v tnh hnh lao ng - tin lng ca mt
doanh nghip nh sau:
Tn
phn
xng
Tng qu lng
(1.000)
S cng nhn
(ngi)
TLBQ
(1.000/ngi)
KG KBC KG KBC KG KBC
A
B
100.000
54.000
121.000
80.000
50
30
55
40
2.000
1.800
2.200
2.000
Cng 154.000 201.000 80 95 1.925 2.115,8
= XT F
- Tc ng ti tng qu lng c hai nhn t l tin lng bnh
qun ca tng phn xng v s cng nhn ca cc phn xng .
- H thng ch s:
=
0 0
1 0
1 0
1 1
0 0
1 1
T X
T X
T X
T X
T X
T X
- S tuyt i:
( ) ( )

+ =
0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
T X T X T X T X T X T X
- Tnh ton cc ch tiu:
000 . 201 000 . 80 000 . 121 T X
1 1
= + =
000 . 154 000 . 54 000 . 100 T X

0 0
= + =
000 . 182 40 800 . 1 55 000 . 2 T X

1 0
= + =
182 , 1 104 , 1 305 , 1 =

154.000) (182.000
) 000 . 182 000 . 201 ( 000 . 154 000 . 201
+ =
000 . 154
000 . 182
000 . 182
000 . 201
000 . 154
000 . 201
=
000 . 28 000 . 19 000 . 47 + =
- H thng ch s:
- S tuyt i:
- Nhn xt: Tng qu lng ca doanh nghip k bo co so vi k
gc tng 30,5%, v s tuyt i tng 47.000 (1.000 ) do nh hng bi
cc nhn t sau:
Do tin lng bnh qun ca cc phn xng tng lm cho tng
qu lng tng 10,4%, v s tuyt i tng 19.000 (1.000 ).
Do s cng nhn ca cc phn xng tng lm cho tng qu
lng tng 18,2%, v s tuyt i tng 28.000 (1.000 ).
thc do nh hng bi ch tiu bnh qun v tng tn s:
=
i
f x M
- Tc ng ti tng lng bin c ba nhn t l lng bin, kt cu
tng th v tng s n v (tng tn s).
- H thng ch s:
(4) (3) (2) (1)
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
f x
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
01
1
01
1
1
0
0
1
1
=
hng bi ng thi c ba nhn t l lng bin, kt cu tng th v
tng tn s.
hng bi kt cu tng th.
hng bi tng tn s.
- S tuyt i:
( )
( )
( )

+
+ =
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
01
1
01
1
1
0
0
1
1
f x f x
f x f x
f x f x f x f x
- Nhn xt v s bin ng ca tng lng bin v mc nh
hng ca tng nhn t.
- V d 9.5: Vi s liu ca v d 9.3, phn tch s bin ng ca
tng sn lng do nh hng bi cc nhn t.
Ta c phng trnh kinh t sau:
= T W Q
Tc ng ti tng sn lng c ba nhn t: NSL ca cc
phn xng, kt cu cng nhn ca cc phn xng v tng s cng
nhn.
- H thng ch s:
=
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
01
1
01
1
1
0
0
1
1
T W
T W
T W
T W
T W
T W
T W
T W
- S tuyt i:
( )
( )
( )

+
+ =
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
01
1
01
1
1
0
0
1
1
T W T W
T W T W
T W T W T W T W
510 T W
1
0 =

Tnh ton cc ch tiu:
460 T W
1
1
=
510 T W
0
0
=
360 T W
1
01
=
1 706 , 0 278 , 1 902 , 0

510
510
510
360
360
460
510
460
=
=
Thay vo h thng ch s, ta c:
S tuyt i:
(-50) = 100 + (-150) + 0
Nhn xt: Tng sn lng ca doanh nghip k bo co
so vi k gc gim 9,8%, v s tuyt i gim 50 (1.000sp) do nh
hng bi cc nhn t:
Do NSL ca cc phn xng tng lm tng sn lng
tng 27,8%, v s tuyt i tng 100 (1.000sp).
Do kt cu cng nhn ca cc phn xng thay i lm
tng sn lng gim 29,4%, v s tuyt i gim 150 (1.000sp).
Do tng s cng nhn khng thay i nn khng nh
hng ti tng sn lng.
THNG K XU HNG PHT TRIN KINH T
Phng php m rng khong cch thi gian
Phng php ny c p dng khi dy s c khong
cch thi gian tng i ngn v c qu nhiu mc
nn khng phn nh c xu hng pht trin ca hin
tng.
Phng php s bnh qun trt (di ng)
Phng php ny dng iu chnh cc mc trong
dy s c bin ng tng gim tht thng nhm loi
tr nh hng ca cc nhn t ngu nhin, vch r xu
hng pht trin c bn ca hin tng.
S bnh qun di ng (trt) l s trung bnh cng ca
mt nhm nht nh cc mc ca dy s c tnh
bng cch ln lt loi tr dn cc mc u, ng
thi thm vo cc mc tip theo, sao cho s lng
cc mc tham gia tnh s trung bnh khng thay i.
Phng php hi quy
L cn c vo c im bin ng ca cc
mc trong dy s thi gian ngi ta tm
mt hm s (gi l phng trnh hi quy)
nhm phn nh s bin ng ca hin
tng theo thi gian.
Khi nimd on thng k ngn hn:
- D on thng k ngn hn l vic d on qu trnh tip theo
ca hin tng trong nhng khong thi gian tng i ngn.
- Ti liu thng c s dng d on thng k ngn hn l
dy s thi gian, tc l da vo s bin ng ca hin tng thi
gian qua d on mc ca hin tng trong thi gian tip theo.
Vic s dng dy s thi gian d on c u im l khi lng ti
liu khng cn nhiu v vic xy dng cc m hnh d on tng i
n gin.
( ).h y y
n h n
+ =
+
II. Mt s phng php n gin d on thng k ngn hn:
1. D on da vo lng tng (gim) tuyt i bnh qun:
- Phng php ny c th c s dng khi cc lng tng (gim)
tuyt i lin hon xp x nhau.
- M hnh d on nh sau:
2. D on da vo tc pht trin bnh qun:
- Phng php ny c th c s dng trong trng hp cc tc
pht trin lin hon xp x nhau.
- M hnh d on nh sau:
( )
h
n h n
t . y y
=
+
( )
t
1) (j
i ij
S
t
Y y

=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
= + + + + + =
1 n
0 j
j 1) (n 3 2
t
t t ... t t t 1 S
=
=
n
1 j
ij i
y Y
- Trong trng hp d on cho cc khong thi gian di 1 nm,
v d nh d on cho cc qu ca tng nm, ta c m hnh d on
nh sau:
Trong :
: Tng cc mc ca qu i
Nm j
Qu i
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Tng qu
(Y
i
)
I
II
III
IV
1.485
1.622
1.662
1.886
1.606
1.701
1.753
1.992
1.704
1.822
1.850
2.085
1.803
1.930
1.966
2.218
1.885
1.997
2.020
2.286
8.483
9.072
9.251
10.467
Tng nm 6.655 7.052 7.461 7.917 8.188 37.273
- V d 8.1: C s liu v doanh thu (n v tnh triu ng) ca mt
cng ty nh sau:
1,0532
6.655
8.188
t
1 5
= =

5,561 1,0532 1,0532 1,0532 1,0532 1 S
4 3 2
t
= + + + + =
- Vi s liu trn, ta c:
( )
0,2454
5,561
1,0532
S
t
1) (7
t
1 j
= =

- S dng m hnh d on d on doanh thu cho cc qu ca

nm 2008 (j=7), ta c:
2.081,73 0,2454 x 8.483 y
I/08
= =
2.270,2 0,2454 x 9.251 y
III/08
= =
2.226,27 0,2454 x 9.072 y
II/08
= =
2.568,6 0,2454 x 10.467 y
IV/08
= =
- Doanh thu qu I:
- Doanh thu qu II:
- Doanh thu qu III:
- Doanh thu qu IV:
3. D on da vo phng trnh hi quy:
- Phng php d on ny c tin hnh bng cch da vo
dy s thi gian xy dng cc phng trnh hi quy theo thi gian
thch hp, sau thay s liu vo phng trnh hi quy d on cho
thi gian cn thit.
- Vic xc nh dng ca phng trnh hi quy c th da vo c
im bin ng ca hin tng, hoc da vo th
Nm 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Doanh thu (1.000.000) 1.800 2.000 2.400 2.900 3.100
t a a y
1 0 t
+ =
- V d 8.2: C s liu v doanh thu ca mt ca hng nh sau:
- Vi s liu trn, ta xy dng phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh nh
sau:
Nm Doanh thu (y
i
) Th t thi gian (t
i
) t
i
2
t
i
y
i
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1.800
2.000
2.400
2.900
3.100
1
2
3
4
5
1
4
9
16
25
1.800
4.000
7.200
11.600
15.500
Cng 12.200 15 55 40.100
- tnh cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy, ta lp bng sau:
350t 1.390 y
t
+ =
3.490 6 x 350 1.390 y
2008
= + =
- Thay s liu vo h phng trnh, ta c:
12.200 = 5a
0
+ 15a
1
40.100 = 15a
0
+ 55a
1
- Gii h ta c: a
0
= 1.390 v a
1
= 350
- D on doanh thu ca ca hng nm 2008 (t = 6):

Giao Trinh Nguyen Ly Thong Ke

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Giao Trinh Nguyen Ly Thong Ke

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12/12/2010 Ging vin V

- Trng hp dy s lng bin c khong cch t:

7.1. Phng sai ca tiu thc thay phin:

- S bnh qun t v phng sai t:

7.2. Quy tc cng phng sai:

Mmen ban u bc 1 (k = 1):

Chn hon li Chn khng hon li

2.3.1. c lng mc bnh qun:

5. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng (gim):

2.1. H thng ch s phn tch s bin ng ca ch tiu bnh

706 , 0 278 , 1 902 , 0 =

000 . 154 000 . 54 000 . 100 T X

000 . 182 40 800 . 1 55 000 . 2 T X

182 , 1 104 , 1 305 , 1 =

2.2.2. Phn tch s bin ng ca tng lng bin tiu

1 706 , 0 278 , 1 902 , 0

- S dng m hnh d on d on doanh thu cho cc qu ca

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