Chuong 7-So Do Mang (CPM & PERT)

TR NG CAO TON KINH T K THU T SI GN NG KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT) Khoa Kinh t & Qu n tr Kinh doanh
TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Gi ng vin: PGS. TS. NGUY N TH NG E-mail: nguyenthong@hcmut.edu.vn or nthong56@yahoo.fr Web: http://www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong/

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng
1
N I DUNG MN H C Chng 1: Gi tr ti n t theo th i gian Chng 2: Chu i dng ti n & Ch tiu nh gi Chng 3: Cc ki n th c m u v phng php t i u Chng 4: Quy ho ch tuy n tnh (QHTT) Chng 5: Cc d ng c bi t pp. QHTT Chng 6: Bi ton v n t i. Chng 7: S m ng (CPM & PERT).
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Tl. (08) 38 640 979 - 098 99 66 719
TON KINH T
TI LI U THAM KH O 1. Ton kinh t . PGS. TS Nguy n Qu ng & TS. Nguy n Th ng Thi. 2. Cc phng php ton kinh t . PGS. TS. Nguy n H i Thanh. 1. Download ti li u gi ng t i:
http:// www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong Th m c: Bi gi ng
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9/19/2011
S M NG (CPM & PERT)

4
PGS. Dr. Nguy n Th ng
S M NG G m c 2 phng php - Phng php ng gng CPM (Critical Path Method) Phng php ny s d ng m hnh t t nh, th i gian hon thnh m i h ng m c cng vi c c b n l h ng s .
5
- Phng php PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Techniques) Phng php ny s d ng m hnh xc su t theo th i gian hon thnh cng vi c c cho d i d ng hm phn ph i xc su t (phn ph i bta).
6
HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

p
Hm m t xc su t bta
Xc su t x y ra a l 1% Xc su t x y ra b l 1%
PHNG PHP CPM M t vi nh ngha qui c: i S ki n i

S ki n xu t pht i i A t S ki n k t thc j
j Th i gian hon thnh c/tc A
Thu n l i a
Bnh th ng m
B t l i Th i gian hon b thnh

7
Cng tc A(t)
8
Thi t l p m t s m ng c 2 phng php : Phng php 1 : Thi t l p theo s trong m t cng tc c b n bi u th b ng 1 vect (trong m t s ti li u ng i ta g i y l phng php AOA - Activity On Arrow). j
B(10) i
Phng php 2 : Thi t l p theo s trong m t cng tc c b n bi u th b ng 1 nt (trong m t s ti li u ng i ta g i y l phng php AON Activity On Node).
A (5) B (10)
A (5)
k
9 10
V nguyn t c ta c th chuy n i t s m ng d ng AON thnh d ng AOA v ng c l i. Xem cc v d sau : Xt cc cng tc a, b, c,.., f v k hi u cc s ki n 1, 2,, 6.
a Start b
Start
Cong tac ao (Dummy)

3 a 4 oi thanh 3 a b 5 ung a b 3 c d e c
4 Ao
b Sai v a=34 va b=34
a b
3 Ao 4 e
2
11
A-O-N
A-O-A
d khong oi hoi sau cong tac c
12
Phng phap lap s o mang: 3 2 1 3 4 Khng nn

V d : L p s m ng c a cng tc sau:
Cng tc A B C D E Cng tc i tr c Khng c Khng c A C B, C
Nn
13 14
Ket qua:
A 1 2 C
Bi t p: V s mng A-O-A cho d n c m t bi cc cng vic sau:

Cng vic 3 D E 5 A B C D E F G
15
Cong tac ao
B 4
Cng vic trc A A B, C B, C D, E
Thi gian ho n th nh (tun) 4 2 5 4 6 1 6

16
L i gi i
A
B t u
1 C
Bi t p: L p s m ng c a cng tc sau: (Xem l i gi i trong Bi t p PERT)

3 E G
K t thc Cng vi c A B C D E F G H I J PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng Cng tc i tr c sau A sau A sau B, C sau B, C sau D, E sau D, E sau H, F Sau G, I
17
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CC THNG S C A S M NG Th i i m s m nh t cng tc b t u ES ES (Earliest Start) l th i i m s m nh t cng tc c th b t u. Th i i m s m nh t cng tc k t thc EF EF (Earliest Final) l th i i m s m nh t cng tc c th k t thc.
19
Th i i m mu n nh t cng tc b t u LS LS (Latest Start) l th i i m mu n nh t m cng tc ph i b t u. Th i i m mu n nh t cng tc k t thc LF LF (Latest Final) l th i i m mu n nh t m cng tc ph i k t thc.
20
PHNG PHP CPM
M HNH CPM PHNG PHP XC NH NG GNG nh ngha: ng gng l t p h p cc cng vi c c b n (thnh chu i lin t c) t kh i u n k t thc d n v i tnh ch t l b t k m t s ko di th i gian hon thnh c a b t k cng vi c c b n no trn ng gng cng ko theo s ko di th i gian hon thnh d n.
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9/19/2011
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c s li u xc nh ng gng cho s m ng th c hi n 2 b c: B c 1: Gi i bi ton xui dng v i kh i hnh s m. B c 2: Gi i bi ton ng c dng v i k t thc tr . T cc k t qu trong B c 1 & 2 s xc nh ng gng.
23
V d : Xt m t d n xy d ng X v i cc h ng m c cng vi c v th i gian han thnh c trnh by trong b ng sau:

Cng vi c
A B C D E F G H
Th i gian k v ng hon thnh cng tc (tu n)

2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2 25 tu n
24
B c 1 : Gi i xui dng v i kh i hnh s m ESi : th i i m kh i hnh cng vi c i s m nh t. EFi : th i i m k t thc cng vi c i s m nh t. G i cng vi c i c th i gian hon thnh l t. Ta c quan h sau: EFi = ESi + t T i b t k m t nt s ki n i no ta c tnh ch t : ESi =Max(EFi) 25
Earliest Start Time (ES) 1 0
2 (ES) B t=2 Earliest Start t=5 7 3 Time (ES) Earliest Final XUI DNG Time (EF) KHI HANH SM
26
Earliest Final Time (EF)

Gi i xui dng
EF=2 A (t=2) Start ES=0 2 ES=2 ES=4 E (t=4) D (t=4) EF=3 3 ES=3 EF=8 5 EF=7 C (t=2) EF=4 4
Earliest Start Time (ES) i 0
A t=2
2 5
Earliest Final Time (EF) 5 =Max(2,5)
KH I HNH S M
ES=4
Earliest Start B t=3 Time (ES) j 2
t=4 C 9 m Earliest Start Earliest Final Time (ES) Time (EF) XUI DNG
27
F (t=3) EF=7 H (t=2) 6 ES=13 EF=13 G (t=5) End EF=15
B (t=3)
ES=8
28
KHI HANH SM
Thi gian can thiet hoan thanh d an
GHI CH Khi gi i xui dng c n ch cc i m nt c s h i t c a t nh t 2 cng vi c (v d nt 5, nt 6). T i s ki n 5, ES =8 v G ch c th b t u s m nh t khi c 2 cng vi c E v D u k t thc. Trong khi D k t thc thc s m nh t l EF=7 tu n v E k t thc s m nh t l EF=8 tu n, do G ch c th b t u s m nh t sau 8 tu n m thi.
29
Tng t t i s ki n 6, cng vi c ch c th b t u s m nh t ES=13 tu n v k t thc s m nh t c a G l EF=13 tu n, m c d k t thc s m nh t c a F l EF=7 tu n. Theo k t qu bi ton xui dng ta c th i gian c n thi t hon thnh d n l 15 tu n.
30
B c 2: Gi i ng c dng v i k t thc tr LSi : th i i m kh i hnh cng vi c i tr nh t. LFi : th i i m k t thc cng vi c i tr nh t. G i cng vi c i c th i gian hon thnh l t. Ta c quan h sau: LSi = LFi - t T i b t k m t nt s ki n i no ta c tnh ch t : LFi =Min(LSi)
31
Latest Start Time (LS) 1 4
6 t=2 Latest Start Time (LS)
Latest Final Time (LF) B t=4 10 3 Latest Final Time (LF)

32
NGC DONG KET THUC MUON


Gi i ng c dng
LF=2 C (t=2) LF=4 2 LS=2 LS=4 E (t=4) LS=1 B (t=3) D (t=4) 3 LS=4 LF=8 LF=8 5 4
LF=6 [Min(6,8)] A C
Ng c dng 2 LS=6 B 3
LS=0 A(t=2)
K T THC TR
LS=10 F (t=3) LF=13 H (t=2) 6 LS=13 LF=13 G (t=5) LS=8 End LF=15
LS=8
Start
KET THUC MUON

33
LF=4
Gia tr t li giai xuoi dong

34
Ghi ch: Khi gi i ng c dng c n ch cc i m nt c s xu t pht c a t nh t 2 cng vi c (v d nt 4). T i s ki n 4, th i gian tr nh t ph i c l LF=4 v th i gian kh i hnh tr nh t t i nt 4 ph i l min(LS=4, LS=10).
35
XC NH NG GNG
LF LS Cng tc A EF
ES Cng tc A l gng (hay LF =EF)

LS = ES
36
Cng vi c A B C D E F G H
ES 0 0 2 3 4 4 8 13
LS 0 1 2 4 4 10 8 13
(LS-ES) T/ ng gng ? 0 1 0 1 0 6 0 0 C Khng C Khng C Khng C C

37
KET QUA XAC NH NG GANG T CPM A-C-E-G-H NG GNG

C (t=2)
2 4 F (t=3) H (t=2)
A (t=2) Start
E (t=4)
End
B (t=3) D (t=4) 3 5
38
G (t=5)
Th i gian t i thi u hon thnh d n L th i i m s m nh t s ki n cu i cng c a d n x y ra va k t thc. Th i gian t i thi u hon thnh v d trn l 15 tu n. d n ng gng A-C-E-G-H
39
PHN TCH K T QU CPM Qua vi c tnh ton thng s s m ng ta c th xc nh c: Th i gian t i thi u hon thnh d n. Th i gian d tr c a cc cng tc. ng gng v cc cng tc gng.
40
NGHA C A NG GNG M i s m ng c t nh t m t ng gng. T ng th i gian c a t t c cc cng tc n m trn ng gng chnh l th i gian CAN THIET t i thi u hon thnh d n.
41
N u 1 cng tc trn ng gng b tr th th i gian c n thi t hon thnh ton b d n s b tr theo. Do v y mu n rt ng n th i gian hon thnh d n th nh qu n l ph i t p trung cc gi i php lm gi m th i gian cc cng tc trn ng gng.
42
i v i cc cng tc khng gng ta c th x d ch th i gian th c hi n nhng v i i u ki n khng c v t qu th i gian d tr tng ng. V i v du trn ta c: Cng tc B c 1 tu n d tr. Cng tc F c 6 tu n d tr.
43
MOT DANG TRNH BAY KHAC KHI GIAI XUOI & NGC DONG NG GANG
EF LF A 1 ES LS
ES LS 2 B C ES LS
EF LF 3 4
44
Bi t p (CPM): Cho d n c s m ng sau. Xac nh ng gng, th i gian hon thnh d n. C (t=5)

A (t=10) Start 2 4 F (t=3) H (t=2)
Bi t p (CPM): Cho d n c s m ng sau. Xac nh ng gng, th i gian hon thnh d n.

2 A=5 D=7 5 H=5 I=8 J=8 6
46
E=6 B=4 4 F=5 3
K=10 7 L=12 M=4 8
D (t=7)
End
1
B (t=7) 3 E (t=11) 5 G (t=5)
C=6
G=7
45
PHNG PHAP PERT

(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
V i phng php CPM th i gian hon thnh 1 cng tc c b n l H NG S . Phng php PERT th i gian hon thnh 1 cng tc c b n c nh ngha b i 3 gia tr tng ng v i: - i u ki n lm vi c B T L I - i u ki n lm vi c BNH TH NG - i u ki n lm vi c THU N L I
48
9/19/2011
47
CC NH NGHA C B N Th i gian hon thnh 1 cng tc c b n trong pp. PERT c m t bng m t quy lu t xc su t bta v i 3 tham s : a, b, m: Th i gian l c quan a: (Optimistic time): l l2 th i gian hon thnh cng tc ny trong /k thu n l i.
49
Th i gian bi quan b: (Pessimistic time): l th i gian hon thnh cng tc trong i u ki n x u nh t (th i gian di nh t). Th i gian bnh th ng m: l th i gian hon thnh cng tc trong i u ki n bnh th ng.
50
NH N XT S khc bi t c b n gi a phng php CPM & phng php PERT: ti (th i gian hon thnh cc cng tc c b n th i) trong CPM l t t nh. ti dng trong PERT l theo quy lu t xc su t ().
51
HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

p
Phn ph i xc su t bta
Xc su t x y ra a l 1% Xc su t x y ra b l 1%
Thu n l i a
Bnh th ng m
B t l i Th i gian hon b thnh

52
G i T l th i gian hon thnh d n. V ti l bi n xc su t T l bi n xc su t. PERT gi thi t T tun theo phn ph i chu n N(T0,T) v i T0 th i gian hon thnh d n tnh t CPM &
CC B C TH C HI N C A PHNG PHP PERT
B c 1: Tnh te & e cho t ng cng tc c b n:
te =
=
2 T
[ ]
2 e i
a + 4m + b e = 6
(b a )2
6
cng tc trn
ng gng t
CPM
53
B c 2: Dng te v p d ng phng php CPM xc nh NG GNG Th i gian hon thnh d n T0 theo p/p CPM. 54
T k t qu phng php CPM C T0 th i gian hon thnh d n. Trn ng gng tnh: 2 V = T = i2

i
HAI D NG BI TON C A PERT Lo i 1: n nh tr c th i gian hon thnh d n, TNH XC SU T tng ng Lo i 2: Cho xc su t hon thnh tr c, TNH TH I GIAN c n thi t.
V i i ch cc cng tc trn ng gng.

55
56
B c 3:
Bi ton lo i 1: Cho Tx , tnh xc su t p:
p = Pr(T Tx ) = Pr( = Pr( t a o ) T T0 T Tx T0 ) T
C Tx c a0 tra b ng phn ph i chu n N(0,1) p
with t =
T T0 T
& a0 =
Tx T0 T
57 58
CH T tun theo phn ph i N(T0,T) bi n it t tun theo phn ph i chu n N(0,1)
ti =
Ti T0 T
Tnh ch t bi n t Gi tr trung bnh b ng 0. l ch chu n c a t l 1. Bin t KHNG co n v .
g i l php bi n i trung tm v chu n ha bi n T.

59 60
B c 3: Bi ton lo i 2: Cho p, tnh Tx:

p = Pr(T Tx ) = Pr( = Pr( t a o ) T T0 T Tx T0 ) T
C p
tra b ng N(0,1)
a0
61
V du: Xet mot d an xay dng gom cac cong viec c ban A, B,.H. Cac thi gian hoan thanh cac cong tac c ban trong cac ieu kien thi cong khac nhau nh trong b ng sau:
Tx = a 0 T + T0
62

Cng Th i hon thnh cng tc (tu n) Th i gian k v ng hon thnh d vi c
n (tu n) Phng sai V

Rng bu c v th t cng vi c nh sau: A Chu n b m t b ng ; B B tr ng thi cng ; C sau A ; D sau B ; E sau C ; F sau C ; G sau D, E ; H Sau F, G.
C (t=2) 2 A (t=2) 4 F (t=3) H (t=2) E (t=4) 6
/k thu n /k bnh l i th ng (a) (m) A B C D E F G H 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 3 2 4 4 2 4 2
/k b t l i (b) 3 4 3 6 7 9 11 3
a + 4m + b 6
b a 6
2 GI 3 TR 2 DNG 4 4 TRONG 3 5 CPM 2

25 tu n
4/36 4/36 4/36 16/36 36/36 64/36 64/36 4/36 63
Start
End
B (t=3) D (t=4) 3
G (t=5) 5
64
a. Xc nh ng gng v th i gian hon thnh d n v i phng php CPM. b. Xc nh xc su t d n han thnh trong 16 tu n. c. Xc nh th i gian han thnh d n v i xc su t 90%.
65
GI I: a. Dng phng php gi i xui v i kh i hnh s m v l i gi i ng c dng v i k t thc tr trong l thuy t c a phng php CPM Xc nh ng gng v th i gian hon thnh d n v i cc gi tr th i gian k v ng hon thnh cc cng vi c c b n nh trn. PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng
66
Th i gian hon thnh d n: 15 tu n (t CPM). ng gng: A-C-E-G-H (t CPM). b. Xc nh xc su t p% d n han thnh trong 16 tu n. Gi tr phng sai trn ng gng: V = 4/36 + 4/36 + 36/36 + 64/36 + 4/36 = 112/36 =3.11 l ch chu n:
T = V = 3.11 = 1.76 ( tuan) 67
Thi gian hoan thanh cong viec T tuan theo Phan phoi chuan : N(T0=15, T=1.76) Theo l thuy t c a phng php PERT, th i gian hon thnh d n s tun theo phn ph i chu n c : Gi tr trung bnh l T0=15 tu n l ch chu n T=1.76 tu n.
68

p
Th i gian han thnh d n gi thi t tun theo phn ph i chu n. Xc su t hon thnh d n trong 16 tu n c m t nh th sau:
p16 : F=Xc su t T<16 tu n
Phn ph i chu n N(T0=15, T=1.76)
Tu n
S=15
p16 = Pr(T 16) = Pr(
T T0 16 15 ) = Pr( t 0.57) T 1.76
16
p16 = 1 Pr( t > 0.57) = 1 0.2843 = 0.7156

69
t tun theo phn ph i chu n N(0,1) , dng b ng tra phn ph i 70 chu n N(0,1): p16 =71,56%. (xem b ng tra N(0,1) cu i)

c. Xc nh th i gian han thnh Tx d n v i xc su t 90%.
K T LU N Xa c su t hon thnh d n ni trn t hn 16 tu n l p=71,56%.
px =0,9: Xc su t th i gian hon thnh d n sau Tx tu n
p
Phn ph i chu n N (T0=15,T=1.76)
T0=15
Tx=?
T (tu n)
V i px=0,9 dng b ng tra phn ph i chu n ta c a0=1,28 t :

71
Tx = a 0 T + T0 = 17.25 weeks
72
K t k lu n: xc su t hon thnh d n p=0.9, ta c n th i gian l 17.25 tu n. Ghi ch: Th i gian gon thnh v i xc su t p=50% l T0=15 tu n.
Bai tap (PERT). Gia thiet rang phng sai cua tat ca cong tac c ban trong bai tap trc la V=6. a. Xac nh xac suat e hoan thanh d an toi a trong 2 t/hp: 14 tuan & 17 tuan. b. Tnh thi gian t nhat can co e d an c hoan thanh vi xac suat la 95%. p
T(tuan)
73
PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng14
15 tuan
17
74
H ng d n
p14 = Pr(T 14) = Pr( = Pr( t = 0.34
Bi n t: chu n & trung tm ha
T T0 14 T0 ) T T
Bi t p PERT
14 15 ) = Pr( t 0.408) = Pr( t > 0.408) 2.45 Tnh /x ng hm m t

x/su t chu n
75
9/19/2011 76
Xc su t d n hon thnh d i 14 tu n l 0.34


Cng vic Cng tc i trc Phng sai Th i gian hon thnh trong /k (tu n) Thun li Binh thng Bt li Trung
(a)
M t d n c th i gian c tnh hon thnh cc cng tc c b n va s m ng c trnh by sau. a. Dng p/p CPM xc nh ng gng & th i gian hon thnh d n. b. Tm xc su t hon thnh d n t i a l 40 tu n. c. Tnh th i gian t i thi u xc su t hon thnh d n p=95%.
77
V=(b-a)2/36
(m)
(b)
A B C D E F G H I J
sau A sau A sau B, C sau B, C sau D, E sau D, E sau H, F Sau G, I
4 3 2 1 2 5 8 5 6 4
5 4 4 2 4 6 10 7 8 5
12 11 6 9 12 13 24 15 16 12
bnh 6 5 4 3 5 7 12 8 9 6
1,78 1,78 0,44 1,78 2,78 1,78 7,11 2,78 2,78 78 1,78
HD: T
S
A
LI U C B N
2 D 4
S
G
M NG SAU
Start
C B 3
J H 6
End
GIAI XUOI DONG GIA DO NG VI KHI HANH SM (ES) V KH HA NH S
I 5
79
9/19/2011 80
T=38 tuan (?)

EF=6 ES=0 Start B (5) EF=5 A (6) C (4) EF=10 3 ES=10 F (7) 2 ES=6 EF=9 4 G (12) D (3) EF=27 EF=15 ES=15 H (8) EF=23 5 6
ES=6
J (6) Final EF=38
E (5)
ES=32
EF=32 I (9) ES=23
TIEP TUC GIAI NGC DONG VI KET THUC TRE (LF) ng gang A-C-E-H-I-J ?
EF=17 Ghi ch: Ti nt 4 c : - cng tc D kt thc sm nht ch sau 9 tun. - cng tc E kt thc sm nht ch sau 15 tun. Do , khi h nh sm nht (ES) ca cng tc G v cng tc H ch c th bt u sau 15 tun. 81
PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng
82
Phn ph i Chu n N(0,1)
HM PHN PH I CHU N N(, )
Hm m t xc su t Di n tch==Pr(X>t)
0
9/19/2011 83
x
SAU)
84
(XEM B NG TRA

t
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0 5000 4602 4207 3821 3446 3085 2743 2420 2119 1841 1587 1357 1151 968 1 4960 4562 4168 3873 3409 3050 2709 2389 2090 1814 1562 1335 1131 951 2 4920 4522 4129 3745 3372 3015 2676 2358 2061 1788 1539 1314 1112 934 3 4880 4483 4090 3707 3336 2981 2643 2327 2033 1762 1515 1292 1093 918 4 4840 4443 4052 3669 3300 2946 2611 2296 2005 1736 1492 1271 1075 901 5 4801 4404 4013 3632 3264 2912 2578 2266 1977 1711 1469 1251 1056 885 6 4761 4364 3974 3594 3228 2877 2546 2236 1949 1685 1446 1230 1038 869 7 4721 4325 3936 3557 3192 2843 2514 2206 1922 1660 1423 1210 1020 853 8 4681 4686 3897 3520 3156 2810 2483 2217 1894 1635 1401 1190 1003 838 9 4641 4247 3859 3483 3121 2776 2451 2148 1867 1611 1379 1170 985 823
85

0 1 808 793 668 655 548 537 446 436 359 351 1.9 287 281 2 228 222 2.1 179 174 2.2 139 136 2.3 107 104 2.4 82 80 2.5 62 60 2.6 47 45 2.7 35 34 2.8 26 25 2.9 19 18 3 13 13 PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng t 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2 778 643 526 427 344 274 217 170 132 102 78 59 44 33 24 18 13 3 764 630 516 418 366 268 212 166 129 99 75 57 43 32 23 17 12 4 749 618 505 409 329 262 207 162 125 96 73 55 41 31 23 16 12 5 735 606 495 401 322 256 202 158 122 94 71 54 40 30 22 16 11
6
721 594 485 392 314
250
197 154 119 91 69 52 39 29 21 15 11
t=0.57
= p= 2843/10000
7 708 582 475 384 307 244 192 150 116 89 68 51 38 28 20 15 10
8 694 571 465 375 301 239 188 146 113 87 66 49 37 27 20 14 11
9 681 559 455 367 294 233 183 143 110 84 64 48 36 26 19 14 10
86
H T CHNG
9/19/2011
87

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TR NG CAO TON KINH T K THU T SI GN NG KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT) Khoa Kinh t & Qu n tr Kinh doanh

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Gi ng vin: PGS. TS. NGUY N TH NG E-mail: nguyenthong@hcmut.edu.vn or nthong56@yahoo.fr Web: http://www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong/

Tl. (08) 38 640 979 - 098 99 66 719

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

S M NG (CPM & PERT)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

PGS. Dr. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

PHNG PHP CPM M t vi nh ngha qui c: i S ki n i

j Th i gian hon thnh c/tc A

B t l i Th i gian hon b thnh

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Cong tac ao (Dummy)

b Sai v a=34 va b=34

d khong oi hoi sau cong tac c

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Phng phap lap s o mang: 3 2 1 3 4 Khng nn

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Bi t p: V s mng A-O-A cho d n c m t bi cc cng vic sau:

Cng vic trc A A B, C B, C D, E

Thi gian ho n th nh (tun) 4 2 5 4 6 1 6

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Bi t p: L p s m ng c a cng tc sau: (Xem l i gi i trong Bi t p PERT)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

PHNG PHP CPM

PGS. Dr. Nguy n Th ng

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

V d : Xt m t d n xy d ng X v i cc h ng m c cng vi c v th i gian han thnh c trnh by trong b ng sau:

Th i gian k v ng hon thnh cng tc (tu n)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Earliest Start Time (ES) 1 0

Earliest Final Time (EF)

PGS. TS. Nguy n Th ng

TON KINH T Chng 6: S m ng (PERT)

Chuong 7-So Do Mang (CPM & PERT)

Chuong 7-So Do Mang (CPM & PERT)