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CC CNG THC C BN
TNH VN HO THU NHP
(Ti liu ca Vin Thm nh Gi Hoa K)
1. VN HO TRC TIP
Vi:
I
R
IO
V
M
DCR
F
GIM
EGIM
NIR
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
T vit tt:
O = Overall Property:
Gi tr ton b
M = Mortgage:
Vn vay
E = Equity:
Vn s hu
L = Land
t
B = Building
Nh ca
I
RxV
V
I xF
1
R
V = IxF
I = V/F
F = V/I
Gi tr = Thu nhp x H s vn ho
Thu nhp = Gi tr / H s vn ho
H s vn ho = Gi tr / Thu nhp
Mi quan h v T sut vn ho v h s
R
RO
hay RO
=
=
=
1/F
NIR / GIM
NIR / EGIM
T sut vn ho= 1 / H s vn ho
T sut vn ho ton b = Thu nhp thun / Thu nhp gp
T sut vn ho ton b = T l Thu nhp thun / S nhn thu
nhp hiu qu
Ghi ch: NIR c th lin quan n Tng thu nhp k hoch hay Tng thu nhp thc t, cn ch
bo m tnh thng nht ca n.
1.1 Nhng T sut gn vi Vn vay - Vn gp
Cng thc u t (band-of-investment)
T sut vn ho ton b:
T sut vn ho vn gp:
RO
RE
=
=
M x RM + [(1-M) x RE]
(RO M x RM) / (1 M)
Ths. Ng Tho
Gi tr ton b:
VO
T sut vn ho vn gp:
RE
T sut vn ho vn gp:
RE
I O ( VM x R M )
+ VM
RE
IO ( VM x RM )
=
1 M
=
R O + (R O + R M )
M
1 M
VO
T sut vn ho vn vay
=
RM
IO ( VE x RE )
+ VM
RM
IO ( VE x RE )
=
VM
2. T SUT SINH LI
Vi:
PV
CF
Y
R
a
1/Sn
1/n
CR
V
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Ths. Ng Tho
Hin gi
Dng tin
T sut sinh li
T sut vn ho
Bin i
hng s thay i hng nm
h s gp tch lu
1 / thi k d n
T sut kp
Gi tr
T vit tt:
n = thi k d n
O = Ton b gi tr
I = Thu nhp
CF3
CF1
CF2
CFn
+
+
+ ..... +
1
2
3
(1 + i) (1 + i) ( 1 + i)
( 1 + i) n
Gi thuyt
Vnh vin
Hng nm*
Thay i thng
Thay i cp s
=0
a = 1 / Sn
a=1/n
Oa = CR
T sut Vn ho
(R)
R=Y
R = Y 1/Sn
R= Y- 1/n
RO= YO - CR
Thay i thng * Gi tr
$I = V x 1/n x Y
$ 1/n = $ I / Y
T sut Sinh li
(Y)
Y=R
Y = R+ 1/Sn
Y= R+ 1/n
YO = RO + CR
Gi tr bin i
(D)
=(Y-R)/(1/Sn )
=(Y-R)/(1/n)
O= (1+CR)n-1
CR = o FV / PV 1
I = (Y x 1/n) / Y
1/n = (Y x I) / (Y+I)
CR = YO - RO
*I trong cng thc ny l t l thay i thu nhp trong 1 nm lin quan n thu nhp nm u
tin
3. HIN GI TNG GIM HNG NM
Thay i theo ng thng
thu c gi tr hin ti ca khon tr gp hng nm bt u vi thu nhp d cui k th
nht v tng h ng mi k ca n k:
PV = (d+hn)an {h(n-an )} / i
thu c gi tr hin ti ca khon tr gp hng nm bt u vi thu nhp d vo cui k th
nht v gim h ng mi k ca n k, n gin xem h nh l s m trong cng thc trn.
Thay i theo t l bt bin
thu c gi tr hin ti ca khon tr gp hng nm bt u $1 vo cui ky th nht v tng
mi k sau theo mt t sut x trong n k
1 (1 + x )
PV =
(1 + i) n
ix
Vi: i l t sut chit khu thi k v x l t s ca gia tng thu nhp trong k so vi thu nhp
ca k trc.
thu c gi tr hin ti ca khon tr gp hng nm khi u bng $1 vo cui k th nht
v gin mi k theo sau vi t l x, n gin xem x l s m trong cng thc trn.
Ths. Ng Tho
R
Sn
D
J
n
IO
B
I
T
T vit tt:
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
T sut vn ho c bn
T sut sinh li
T l vay vn
T l thanh ton vn vay
H s tr gp
T sut sinh li
Gi tr tng lai ca $1 mi k
Bin i
H s J (thay i thu nhp )
K ca d n
Thu nhp hot ng thun
Cn i tin vay
T sut thu nhp danh ngha
nh hng ca thu.
E
M
P
O
I
ET
OT
1
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Vn gp
Vn vay
D n
Ton b ti sn
Thu nhp
Vn gp sau thu
Thu nhp sau thu
Vay ln 1
Vay ln 2
Mi quan h n by
T l vn ho trc thu
Nu RO > RM, th RE > RO, tc dng n by dng
Nu RO = RM, th RE = RO, tc dng n by trung tnh
Nu RO < RM, th RE < RO, tc dng n by m
Dng t sut sinh li trc thu:
Nu YO > YM, th YE > YO, tc dng n by dng
Nu YO = YM, th YE = YO, tc dng n by trung tnh
Nu YO < YM, th YE < YO, tc dng n by m
Dng t sut sinh li sau thu: (vi YOT l thu nhp ti sn sau thu. YET l thu nhp vn sau
thu v T l t sut nh hng ca thu)
Nu YOT > YM(1-T), th YET > YOT , tc dng n by dng
Nu YOT = YM(1-T), th YET = YOT , tc dng n by trung tnh
Nu YOT < YM(1-T), th YET < YOT , tc dng n by m
CNG THC VN VAY / VN GP
T SUT VN HO C BN (r)
r
= YE M (YE + P 1/Sn RM)
r
= YE M1 ( YE + P1 1/Sn RM1) M2 (YE + P2 1/Sn RM2)
P = (RM I) / (RMP I)
P = (1/Sn ) / (1/Sn P)
Ths. Ng Tho
5. PHN TCH U T
Vi:
PV
NPV
CF
i
n
IRR
PI
MIRR
FVCFI
i
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Hin gi
Hin gi thun
Dng tin
T sut chit khu
Thi k d n
T sut ni hon
Ch s thu nhp
T sut ni hon ch nh
Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin
T sut ti u t trong cng thc
MIRR
Ths. Ng Tho
T vit tt:
0 = Ti thi im zero
1 = Cui k th nht
2 = Cui k th 2
3 = Cui k th 3
n = Cui k th n
CF1
(1 + i)
CF2
(1 + i)
CF3
(1 + i)
+ ...... +
CFn
(1 + i) n
MIRR =
FVCF
CF 0
[CF (1 + i)
1
n 1
+ CF2 (1 + i)
n 2
+ CF3 (1 + i)
n 3
Ghi ch: trong cng thc ny ch s CFs c th dng v c th m theo cch tnh ca PV hay
NPV. Tuy nhin, CF0 c xem l gi tr dng cho cch tnh PI v MIRR.
T sut danh ngha v t sut thc t
(1+t sut danh ngha) = (1+ t sut thc t) (1+ t sut lm pht)
T sut thu
T
= ( Y trc thu - Y sau thu) / Y trc thu
Phng sai: (variance)
n
P ( x
i =1
x)
lch chun
var iance
Doanh thu
n
x = Pi X i
i =1
im ho vn cho thu
Chi ph + I M
Tiencho thue
hangnamtrenmoin v
T s ho vn
Chi ph + I M
Li tcgop
Ths. Ng Tho
PMTS = 0
i=6%
1
2
PV= $1,000
n=8
FV = PV (1+i)n
= 1,000 (1+0.06)8 = 1,000 x 1.59385
= $1,593.85
i= 10%
1
2
3
n=4
PV = ?
PV = FV / (1+i)n = 11.000 / (1+0.10)4 = 11,000 / 1.4641
= $7,513.15
n=30
PV= 0
FV(pp) =
n
30
(
(
1 + i) 1
1 + 0.075 ) 1
7.754955
2000 x
= 2000 x
= 2000 x
0.075
0.075
Ths. Ng Tho
+
n= 15
i= 8 %
1
1
1
15
(1 + i) = 1.08 = 3.17217
i
0.08
0.08
1 0.31524
0.68476
=
= 8.5595
=
0.08
0.08
Y =
+
n = 15
i= 8 %
(1 + 0.00666 ) 180
0.00666
1
3.30652 = 0.697568 = 104.64107
0.00666
0.00666
i= 8 %
1
n = 30 x 12
PV = $130,000
S k trong 30 nm: 30 x 12 = 360
Li sut mi k:
5.75% / 12 = 0.0047916
Y = i+
i
0.0047916
= 0.0047916 +
= 0.005835729
n
1.0047916 360 1
(1 + i ) 1
Ths. Ng Tho
n=6
i= 4 %
SF =
(1 + i)
0.04
(1 + 0.04 )
0.04
= 0.1507613
0.26532
iA n
A n 1
1
1 1.13 5
= 3.517231
(1 + i) n =
0.13
i
PV = $362.119
NPV = -I +
CFi
(1 + i)
i =1
NPV = - 350.000 +
Ths. Ng Tho
Dng tin
0
1
2
3
4
5
- 250.000
20.000
20.000
20.000
20.000
340.000
i = 12%
PV
1.00000
0.89286
0.79719
0.71178
0.63552
0.56743
NPV
- 250,000
17,857
15,944
14,236
12,710
192,925
3,672
i = 13%
PV
1.00000
0.88496
0.78315
0.69305
0.61332
0.54276
NPV
- 250,000
17,699
15,663
13,861
12,266
184,538
- 5,972
NPV 1 (i 2 i1 )
NPV 1 + NPV 2
3.672 (0.13 0.12 )
IRR = 0.12 +
= 0.12 + 0.0038
3.672 + 5.972
IRR = i1 +
IRR = 0.1238
12,38%
i = 13%
PV
1.00000
0.88496
0.78315
0.69305
0.61332
0.54276
NPV
- 250,000
17,699
16,289
14,992
13,798
186,382
- 839
NPV 1 (i 2 i1 )
NPV 1 + NPV 2
8.986 (0.13 0.12 )
IRR = 0.12 +
= 0.12 + 0.0091
8.986 + 839
IRR = i1 +
IRR = 0.1291
Ths. Ng Tho
12,91%
10