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ThS. Nguyn Th Tuyt Mai Khoa Ti chnh Ngn hng i hc Ngoi Thng
Long Call
Li nhun t vic mua 1 H QCM c phiu Kiu u: gi quyn chn = $5, gi thc hin = $100, thi hn ca H = 2 thng
30 Profit ($) 20 10 70 0 -5 80 90 100 Terminal stock price ($) 110 120 130
Short Call
Li nhun t vic bn 1 H QCM c phiu kiu u gi quyn chn = $5, gi thc hin = $100, thi hn = 2 thng
Profit ($)
5 0 -10 -20 -30
Faculty of Banking & Finance - FTU
Long Put
Li nhun t vic mua HQCB c phiu kiu u: gi quyn chn = $7, gi thc hin = $70
30 Profit ($) 20 10
0
-7
Short Put
Li nhun t vic bn 1H QCB c phiu kiu u: gi quyn chn = $7, gi thc hin = $70
40
50
60 70 80
Li Ct
E F Gi
Gi
Bn Call
Li Ct
F E Gi
E Bn Put
Gi
Ti sn c s ca H QC
Stocks (c phiu) Foreign Currency (ngoi t) Stock Indices (ch s c phiu) Futures (H tng lai) Interest rates (li sut) Commodity (Hng ha)
10
Mt s thut ng (terminologies)
Moneyness : At-the-money option: QC ha vn In-the-money option: QC c li Out-of-the-money option: QC l
Intrinsic value: gi tr ni ti ca H QC
Gi f l gi tr ca H QC nu QC c thc hin ngay lp tc th Intrinsic value = max {0, f}
Time value: gi tr thi gian ca H QC l phn gi tr ca hp ng quyn chn c c do thi gian cn li ca HQC cho ti khi o hn.
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Mt s gi thit
Khng c ph giao dch Li nhun giao dch chu cng mt mc thu Li sut i vay = li sut cho vay = li sut phi ri ro.
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K hiu
- Gi quyn chn mua kiu M P : American Put option price - Gi quyn chn bn kiu M ST :Stock price at option maturity - Gi c phiu vo thi im o hn D : Present value of dividends during options life - Gi tr hin ti ca c tc r : Risk-free rate for maturity T with cont comp - Li sut khng ri ro
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Bin s
S0 K T r D
+ ? + +
+ ? + +
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+ + + +
+ + + +
1. S v K /v Call Option:Payoff = S-K. - gi tr quyn chn mua t l thun vi S v t l nghch vi K. /v Put Option: Payoff = K-S. - gi tr quyn chn bn t l thun vi K v t l nghch vi S. 2. K hn ca H QC /v American Options: Gi tr ca C QC mua & QC bn kiu M u tng khi k hn ca HQC tng. /v European Options: mc d nhn chung gi tr ca HQC mua & bn kiu u thng tng khi k hn ca HQC tng, tuy nhin iu ny khng phi lun lun ng. 3. Bin ng gi c phiu: c phiu cng bin ng mnh th gi tr ca 2 loi H QC mua & bn cng tng. 4. Li sut phi ri ro: Tc ng ca R ln gi tr ca HQC khng thc s r rng nh tc ng ca cc nhn t khc. Khi li sut tng- li sut yu cu ca NT tng- gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin tng lai s gim -gi tr hin ti ca K s gim- gi tr Call option s tng; gi tr ca Put option s gim. 5. Lng c tc s nhn trong tng lai: gi tr HQC mua t l nghch vi lng c tc d tnh s tr v Gtr HQC bn t l thun vi lng c tc d tnh s tr.
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Quyn chn kiu M c gi tr ln hn hoc bng quyn chn kiu u v tnh linh hot ca n. Cc Pp
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Ke rT p Nu iu ny khng xy ra s xut hin c hi kinh doanh chnh lch gi: Arbitrageur s bn QCB v u t s tin thu c vo cc ti sn phi ri ro.
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1. /v QCM kiu M
C
Max (S
K, 0)
2. /v QCM kiu u:
18
--- Trong mi trng hp, gi tr ca DM A = Max{ST, K}. DM B: ti thi im T, gi tr ca DM B l ST. ---- gi tr ca DM A lun ln hn hoc bng gi tr ca DM B ti thi im T ---- gi tr hin ti ca DM A phi ln hn gi tr hin ti ca DM B, tc l: c + Ke rT S0 ---------- c S0 - Ke rT Hn na, c 0, nn c Max {S0 - Ke rT , 0}
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20
1. /v QCB kiu M:
2. /v QCB kiu u:
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Quyn chn bn
Gi s 1 H QCB kiu u c cc thng tin nh sau p =1 S0 = 37 T = 0.5 r =5% K = 40 D =0 Liu c c hi mua bn n chnh lch khng?
22
c+
-rT = Ke
p + S0
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24
Ch
Call-Put parity ch ng vi European Options m thi!!! Vy i vi American Options th sao??? American options; D = 0 S0 - K < C - P < S0 - Ke rT V d: QCM kiu M CP vi D = 0, K = 20, T = 5 thng, C = 1.5, S0 = 19, r = 10%.
25
1. /v QCM kiu M: khng nn thc hin QCM trc khi o hn. V sao??? C 3 l do:
Khng mt thu nhp (v D = 0) Gi quyn chn mua c phiu bo him cho trng hp c phiu gim gi xung di mc gi thc hin. Khng mt thu nhp do Thi gian thanh ton tin thc hin c li chm li nn c th gi tit kim s tin K sinh li
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C th c thc hin ngay khi: Gi CP gim su- Thc hin QC ti mc gi K cao hn nhiu mc gi th trng ri gi tit kim s tin li thu c.
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Tc ng ca c tc ti cn di gi quyn chn
D: Gi tr hin ti ca c tc
c S0 D Ke
p D Ke
rT
rT
S0
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/v QCM: c th thc hin sm QC ngay trc ngy giao dch khng tr c tc. /v QCB: c th thc hin sm nu PV (interest on K) > PV (future dividends) + PV (right not to exercise)
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30
1. Collars 2. Spreads
Bull Spreads Bear Spreads Butterfly Spreads
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Profit
Profit
K K
(a) Profit Profit
ST
(b)
ST
K ST
(c)
Faculty of Banking & Finance - FTU
K
(d)
32
ST
32
Hnh a: Writing a Covered Call = Writing a Call + Long a stock Hnh b: Ngc li vi chin lc (a). Hnh c: A Protective Put = Long a Put + Long a Stock Hnh d: Ngc li vi chin lc (c).
33
2. Collars
Collars l 1 chin lc quyn chn (i.e., mua protective put v bn call option) nhm gii hn gi tr ca Danh mc trong mt bin nht nh. Chin lc Collars ph hp vi nhng NT c mc li sut mc tiu vi mt mc ri ro c th chp nhn nht nh. V d: 1 NT c 1 khon tin tr gi $200000 v ch chp nhn mc ri ro khng qu $20000. Chin lc Collar c s dng nh sau: mua 2000 CP vi mc gi th trng l $100/CP; mua 2000 QCB (20 hp ng QCB) vi K = $90; bn 2000 QCM vi K = $110 V th Payoff??? Xc nh mc li & l ti a /v NT?
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3. SPREADS
Chin lc Spread l chin lc kt hp 2 hay nhiu Quyn chn cng loi (i.e., cng Call hoc cng Put) Cc loi chin lc Spread:
35
36
Profit ST K1 K2
37
37
Profit K1 K2 ST
38
38
39
Profi t K1 K2 ST
40
40
Profit
K1
K2
ST
41
41
Chin lc Butterfly Spreads s dng kt hp cng loi QC vi 3 mc gi khc nhau. Butterfly Spreads c th c to ra bi cc cch sau:
Butterfly Spreads s dng cc QCM: Mua QCM1 vi K1 tng i thp + Mua QCM3 vi K3 tng i cao + Bn 2 QCM2 vi K2 nm gia K1 & K3. Butterfly Spreads s dng cc QCB:Mua QCB1 vi K1 tng i thp + Mua QCB3 vi K3 tng i cao + Bn 2 QCB2 vi K2 nm gia K1 & K3.
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Profit K1 K2 K3 ST
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Profit K1 K2 K3 ST
44
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4. Chin lc QC kt hp: s dng kt hp c 2 loi QCM & QCB /v cng 1 loi TSCS
Straddle = Mua QCM1 + Mua QCB2 vi cng mc gi thc hin v cng thi hn. Strips & Straps
Strips = Mua 1 QCM + Mua 2 QCB vi cng mc gi thc hin v cng thi hn. Straps = Mua 2 QCM + Mua 1 QCB vi cng mc gi thc hin v cng thi hn.
Strangles = Mua QCM1 + Mua QCB2 vi cc mc gi thc hin khc nhau nhng cng thi hn.
45
Profit
ST
46
46
Profit
Profit
K Strip
Faculty of Banking & Finance - FTU
ST
K Strap
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ST
47
Profit K1 K2 ST
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48
M hnh nh thc l mt m hnh c s dng rt ph bin trong nh gi quyn chn. M hnh ny xem xt cc kh nng c th xy ra ca gi CP trong sut k hn ca 1 quyn chn. M hnh ny gi nh khng tn ti c hi kinh doanh chnh lch gi (no arbitrage) & ri ro trung lp (risk-neutral valuation).
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Gi c phiu = $22
50
A Call Option
Gi s mt quyn chn mua c phiu c gi thc hin bng $21. S= $22 c= $1 S = $20 c=?
S= $18 c= $0
11.51
Faculty of Banking & Finance - FTU
51
long D c phiu short 1 quyn chn mua Gi tr ca DM ny sau 3 thng: Gi s danh mc:
22D 1
18D
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Danh mc u t khng c ri ro (riskless portfolio) l: long 0.25 c phiu short 1 quyn chn mua Gi tr ca danh mc u t sau 3 thng l 22 0.25 1 = 4.50 = 18 x 0.25 Gi tr ca danh mc u t ngy hm nay l 4.5e 0.120.25 = 4.3670
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nh gi quyn chn
Danh mc u t long 0.25 c phiu short 1 quyn chn tr gi 4.367 Gi tr c phiu l: 5.000 (= 0.25 20 ) S0 = 20. Gi f l gi ca QCM. Vy gi ca DM u t ti ngy hm nay l: 20 x 0.25 f = 5 f = 4.367 Suy ra, f = 5 4.367 = 0.633
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Khi qut ha
Mt chng khon phi sinh c k hn T v ti sn c s l mt c phiu:
S0
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Khi qut ha
Gi s c danh mc u t: long D shares v short 1 chng khon phi sinh
S0
S0uD u S0dD d
u f d D S 0u S 0 d
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Khi qut ha
Gi tr ca danh mc u t ti thi im T l S0uD u Gi tr ca danh mc u t hm nay l (S0uD u)erT Gi tr danh mc u t ngy hm nay cng c th c th hin S0D f V vy: = S0D (S0uD u )erT
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Khi qut ha
= [ pu + (1 p)d ]erT
Trong
e d p ud
rT
Faculty of Banking & Finance - FTU
58
Phng trnh trn c th gii thch theo cng thc k vng ton xc sut p v 1-p l xc sut ln gi v xung gi. Gi tr ca quyn chn mua l gi tr k vng trung bnh chit khu ti mc li sut phi ri ro:
S0
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S0u u S0d d
nh gi quyn chn
Khi xc sut bin ng ln l p v xung l 1-p, gi k vng ca CP ti thi im T l S0erT Cng thc ny th hin s tin u t vo S0 sinh li vi mc li sut phi ri ro r trong thi gian u t T Cy nh thc (binomial trees) th hin chng ta c th s dng mc li sut khng c ri ro nh gi quyn chn Phng php ny gi l nh gi ri ro trung tnh (risk-neutral valuation)
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Th d
S0u = 22 u = 1
S0
S0d = 18 d = 0
Gi s r = 12% nm; T = 3 thng p l xc sut em li thu nhp khng c ri ro cho CP nn: 20e0.12 0.25 = 22p + 18(1 p ) v vy p = 0.6523 Hoc chng ta cng c th xc nh p theo cng thc:
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Gi quyn chn
S0
S0u = 22 u = 1 S0d = 18 d = 0
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M hnh nh thc 2 bc
24.2 22
20
Mi bc 3 thng K=21, r=12% mi bc, gi CP c th tng 10% hoc gim 10%.
19.8 18
16.2
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M hnh nh thc 2 bc
24.2 3.2
22 20 1.2823
A
B E C
2.0257
18
0.0
19.8 0.0
16.2 F Value at node B 0.0 0.120.25(0.65233.2 + 0.34770) = 2.0257 =e Value at node A = e0.120.25(0.65232.0257 + 0.34770) = 1.2823
64
60
72 0 48 4
B E
1.4147
40
C F
9.4636
32 20
65
60 50 5.0894
A
72 0 48 4
B E
1.4147
40
C
12.0
F
32 20
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Delta
Delta (D) l h s gia bin ng gi quyn chn v bin ng gi ti sn c s Gi tr ca D thay i ti cc nt khc nhau.
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u e
Dt Dt
d 1 u e
trong o lng mc bin ng gi ti sn c s Dt l khong thi gian mi bc. M hnh ca Cox, Ross, v Rubinstein
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Xc nh xc sut ln gi
ad ud
a e rDt for a nondividend paying stock a e ( r q ) Dt for a stock index where q is the dividend yield on the index ae
( r r f ) Dt
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V d
70
67.49 50 7.43
A
91.11 D 0
E
0.93
37.04
C
50 2
14.96
27.44 F 24.56
71
c S 0 N (d1 ) K e pKe
rT
rT
N (d 2 )
N (d 2 ) S 0 N (d1 )
72