PHN TCH TI CHNH

CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V PHN TCH TI CHNH

I. KHI NIM MC TIU PHN TCH TI CHNH: Cc i tng quan tm n TC ca DN: CSH, c ng, cng nhn vin, ch n, nh nc

Cho vay ngn hn < 1 nm Cho vay di hn > 1 nm Kh nng thanh ton lin quan n tnh thanh khon, TS chuyn i thnh tin d dng-> ln quan n TSNH v TSDH, m TSNH lin quan n kh nng chuyn i thnh tin nhanh. doanh thanh ton. Kh nng sinh li trong di hn ( bn) duy tr hot ng kinh

* Mc tiu ca PTTC l quan tm n: Kp thi pht hin nhng nguy c tim n gy ra tnh trng kh khn v TC dn n kit qu TC lm cho DN phi i mt vi nguy c phsn-> phi kim tra sc khe nh k cho DN Ch : Kh khn TC xy ra khi DN ri vo tnh trng khng c tin hoc khng c kh nng lm ra tin p ng nhng nhu cu ( duy tr s sng cho DN) cn thit ti thiu m bo HKD ca DN c tin hnh 1 cch bnh thng nh: khng c tin mua NVL sn xut, tr lng CNV, p ng nhu cu thanh ton trong ngn hn. Kit qu TC xy ra khi DN khng c tin tr nhng khan n n hn t phi i mt vi nguy c ph sn. PTTC phi xc nh, nh gi v th, sc mnh, nng lc TC ca DN ti thi im , c bit l so vi cc i th cnh tranh trong cng ngnh bit c ti thi im phn tch DN ang ng v tr bao nhiu trong ngnh. Ch : 1 DN khi c sc mnh TC trong ngnh th c rt nhiu ci li, huy ng c vn tc l vay c n khng nhng vay c m cn vay vi li sut thp. gi cao. huy ng VCP tc l pht hnh c phiu c nhiu ngi mua v mua vi D mc c vi nh cung cp, d thu ht ngi lao ng, c kh nng thc hin Qu trnh nh gi thc trng tnh hnh TC ca DN : nh gi tim nng trin

cc c hi u t mi vng ca cng ty.

PTTC gip DN hoch nb\h chin lc TC nhm tha mn mc tiu ti a ha gi tr DN t ti a ha thu nhp cho CSH DN. II. BO CO TC NN TNG CA PTTC Cung cp cc thng tin v TC c du hiu nhn bit v tnh hnh

TC ca DN ntn?

 BCTC l nn tng ca PTTC v cung cp cc thng tin v TC gip ngi phn tch c nhng du hiu nhn bit v tnh hnh TC ntn? ( vi phn tch du hiu l rt quan trng) (BCTN, BCKT, BC lu chuyn tin t) Thng tin trn bo co : nhng khim khuyt xu hng x l. BCTC: + Cung cp thng tin g? (v TC) + Cc ch tiu c khon mc trn BCTC + Ngun thng tin trn cc bo co c chun xc khng, nu khng chun xc th nguyn nhn t u?-> x l BNG CN I K TON BNG CN I K TON TI SN 1. Vn bng TM 2. u t TC ngn hn 3. Cc khon phi thu 4. Hng tn kho TSL 5. TSC TSC 6. Tng TS 2004 2.540 1.800 18.320 27.530 50.190 31.700 31.700 81.890 2003 2.081 1.625 16.850 26.470 47.026 30.000 30.000 77.026

NGUN VN 7.Cc khon phi tr 8. Vay ngn hn ngn hng 9.NDH n hn tr 10. NNH khc Tng NNH 11. N DH Tng N 12. VCP

2004 9.721 8.500 2.000 5.302 25.523 22.000 47.523 34.367

2003 8.340 5.635 2.000 4.900 20.875 24.000 44.875 32.151

Tng VCP

81.890

77.026

Tnh t trng + mt s chun mc (ngnh) + tnh cht sp + giai on pht trin (giai on khi s khng u t qu mc) + BCTN tng n/ tng TS (47523/81890 = 0.58> 50%)) Cho bit cng ty c s dng n khng ( ly

Cng ty ny c ri vo tnh trng ly ngn nui di khng? Khng v vn lun chuyn l ngun di hn thng xuyn, u t vo TSNH (TSNH NNH) 2004: 50.190 25.523 = 24.658 VLC> 0 (Ngn nui di l vay NH u t vo TSDH) ly ngn nui di l nguy him. Ngn nui di khng phi lc no cng cht

N di s dng phi gn vi n by ti chnh: DN c m bo diu kin hot ng khng (ROE, EPS) BCKT l 1 BCTC c lp vo cui thng ( cui qu hoc cui nm) y l BC c tnh thi im BC ny cung cp thng tin v ngun ngn qu v vic s dng ngun ngn qu trong u t mua sm TS c th BCKT cho thy quyt nh u t v quyt nh ti tr ca DN l ntn? + BCKT cho thy vic u t mua sm TS c hp l khng? Vic s dng TS c hiu qu khng, kh nng sinh li ca TS c hay khng ( ngi phn tch t trng + c th ngnh + tnh cht sp + giai on pht trin trong chu k sng) + BCKT cho thy DN c s dng n ti tr khng ( tnh t trng ca tng ngun trong tng ngun) nu s dng n th s dng NNH hay NDH ( Cn c vo t trng) nu s dng NNH th c ri vo tnh trng ly ngn nui di khng ( tnh VLC = TSNH NNH>0 ) khng c ngn nui di, nu VLC < 0 c tnh trng ngn nui di). Nu c ri vo tnh trng ly ngn nui di th tnh hnh ngn nui di 1o c lm cho DN c i mt vi kh khn TC, kit qu TC, c nguy c ph sn khng. Nu s dng NDH th c tn dng c tc ng ca n by ca n khuych i thu nhp cho ch s hu ca DN khng ( ri ro th no, ri ro TC) + BCKT cho thy tnh tng thch gia TS v NV ntn? C b ph v khng, nu b ph v th nh hng n tnh hnh TC ntn? Ch : Cc khon mc trn BCKT lun c sp xp theo th t nht nh c th: Cc khon mc phn TS c sp xp theo th t tnh thanh khon gim dn Cc khon mc phn NV c sp xp theo th t tnh o hn Nhng khim khuyt ca bo co ny (T xem) Khi s dng cc thng tin trn BCKT phn tch cn lu n s khng chun xc (nu c) v hng x l c c ngun thng tin chun xc c th: S sai lch xut pht t BCKT v cc BCTC khc c th b nh hng bi cc chun mc, cc nguyn tc v cc phng php hch ton k ton, nh hng bi tnh ch quan ca ngi lp, nh hng bi s khng minh bch trong ngun thng tin do p lc cnh tranh, p lc TC hoc v BC c lp phc v cho qu nhiu ngi ( ch n, c ng c, c ng mi, nh nuc)

 C th xy ra trng hp c nhng TS c tham gia vo hat ng ca DN nhng v 1 ldo no khng c ghi nhn vo BCKT trng hp ny th phi cng them vo. C nhng trng hp TS c ghi nhn phn nh vo BCKT nhng ch thanh ly, TS khng dung, nhng TS do u t khng ng TSTC, th phi loi ra. Tuy nhin ring TSTC khng phi lc no cng loi. Khi s dng cc khon mc trn BCKT phn tch cn lu n tnh thi im ca BC ny v hng x l l tt c cc khan mc trn BCKT u phi tnh bnh qun. Tuy nhin i vi nhng DN c tnh ma v hoc nhng DN v 1 l do no c s sai lch ln vo s bnh qun (theo nm) m phi phn tch theo qu thm ch theo thng 2. Khon mc 1. Doanh thu 2. Gi vn hng bn 3. Li gp 4. CPH CP bn hng CP qun l (KH = 520) 5. Ton b CPH 6. Li trc thu v li vay 7. Li vay 8. Li trc thu 9. TTNDN (40%) 10. Li rng 11. CTCPU 12. TN CPT 13. LNGL 14. SL CPT (ngn CP) 15. Gi th trng mi CP 16. Gi s sch mi CP 17. TN mi CP (EPS) Lu : 15.940 11.520 3.160 8.360 3.344 5.016 2.800 2.216 1.329 1.300 20 26,44 1,704 6.540 9.400 BNG BO CO THU NHP 2004 112.760 85.300 27.460

 BCTN l 1 BCTC c tnh thi k cung cp thng tin v kt qu HKD, cung cp thng tin v thu nhp, cung cp thng tin v chnh sch c tc ( tc l quyt nh phn phi ca cng ty). Ngai ra BCTN cn cho thy s kt hp gia n by KD v n by TC trong n lc khuych i EPS ntn, ri ro KD, ri ro TC tng th ra sao? Khim khuyt: BCTN cung cp thng tin v thu nhp do bo co ny b nh hng rt ln bi k ton v t s nh hng c th lm cho li nhun trn bo co ny l 1 s o khng c thc, li nhun o l do: + Doanh thu tnh lun phn doanh thu bn chu + Chi ph: * C nhng chi ph khng thc chi bng tin cng tnh vo chi ph nh khu hao * C nhng chi ph cha chi nhng cng c tnh vo chi ph nh cc khon d phng, chi ph trch trc. * C nhng khon chi ph chi nhng ch tnh vo chi ph 1 phn do p dng, phng php phn b dn. III. 1. BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T (BC ngun v s dng ngun, bo co dng tin) Khi nim phn loi dng tin Dng tin l ch tiu ni ln s lun chuyn ca tin ( tin vo tin ra) trong 1 thi k Chnh lch dng tin vo v dng tin ra= dng tin thun Dng tin thun pht sinh 1 thi im nht nh no ( thi im cui k) lun th hin lng tin mt thc c ti thi im v c tnh trn c s ly tt c dng tin thc thu vo n thi im tr tt c dng tin thc chi ra n thi im . Ton b dng tin ca DN c chia thnh 3 dng tin gn vi 3 hot ng ca DN: + Dng tin gn vi HKD gi tt l dng tin hot ng + Dng tin gn vi hot ng u t gi tt l dng tin u t + Dng tin gn vi hot ng ta tr gi tt l dng tin ti tr a) Dng tin hot ng: l ton b dng tin vo vo ra c lin quan trc tip n vic sn xut v tiu th hng ha hoc dch v. Tuy nhin cn lu : Mc d vic vay n thuc hot ng ti tr nhng li vay th li c tnh vo dng tin hot ng v li vay c xem nh l chi ph duy tr HKD ca DN v c khu tr vo li tc chu thu. Theo chun mc k ton VN cc dng tin c lin quan n hot ng mua bn chng khon v mc ch thng mi ( mua bn kim li) c phn loi l t dng tin ca HKD. b) Dng tin u t: l ton b dng tin vo v ra gn vi vic mua bn TSC v cc khon tham gia u t ca DN ( lin quan n cc khon chi u t gp vn, thu hi vn gp, tin thu li cho vay, c tc v li nhun nhn c) c) Dng tin ti tr: l ton b dng tin vo v ra gn vi quyt nh ti tr bng n v VCP c th l dng tin n t vic vay n, hon tr khon vay, tin thu vo do pht hnh c phiu v thanh ton c tc cng nh mua li c phn. 2. Bo co dng tin:l BCTC cho thy tm lc v dng tin vo v ra trong 1 thi k ca DN gn vi cc hot ng ca DN. C 2 phng php lp bo co dng tin : phng php trc tip v phng php gin tip. V d: Hy lp bo co dng tin cho cng ty NUMBER ONE nm 2006 da vo cc thng tin t BCKT, BCTN, bng tm tt cc giao dch ca cng ty.

a)

Phng php trc tip: ( trc tip pht sinh, trc tip ghi nhn)

lp BCDTin theo phng php trc tip cn lu : phng php ny bt u t tin thc thu do bn hng i qua tt c cc nghip v kinh t pht sinh c lin quan n thu chi tin thc t n dng tin thun ca tng hat ng, p lp BCDTin theo phng php ny c th tin hnh qua 2 bc * Bc 1: phn loi dng tin vo dng tin ra gn vi cc nhm ti khon c lin quan * Bc 2: T bc 1, xc nh dng tin vo dng tin ra lin quan n tng hot ng lp bo co dng tin. BNG BC DNG TIN HOT NG CA CNG TY NUMBER ONE nm 2006 (theo phng php trc tip) Ch tiu II. Dng tin HKD: Thu tin KH Chi tin + cp + vin + + Chi tr cho nh cung Chi tr lng nhn Chi tr li vay Chi np thu +1.800 -1.020 -720 -150 -40 -110 +780 Dng tin

Dng tin thun HKD II. Dng tin hot ng u t Thu tin thanh ly TS Chi tin mua TS +100 -2.870 -2.770

Dng tin thun HT II. + + + Dng tin hot ng ti tr Thu tin Pht hnh CPT N vay DH Chi tr c tc +2.180 +980 +1.200 -280 -1.900 -90 +250 +160 -90

Dng tin thun hot ng ti tr Tng dng tin thun TM tn qu 31/12/05 TM tn qu 31/12/06 Thay i trong qu TM b) Phng php gin tip:

 BCDTin c lp theo phng php gin tip ch thc s gin tip i vi dng tin hot ng ngha l i vi dng tin u t v dng tin ti tr vn c xc nh theo phng php trc tip. xc nh dng tin thun ca HKD c th xut pht t li trc thu hoc li sau thu ri tin hnh iu chnh cho nhng khon chi khng bng tin mt v nhng khon thay i ngoi tin mt. Nu xut pht t li trc thu, th sau iu chnh kt qu s c dng tin thun trc thu ca HKD. Nu xut pht t li sau thu th sau kt qu iu chnh th kt qu s c dng tin thun sau thu ca HKD. cha: + Xut pht t li trc thu hay li sau thu l ty thuc vo DN np thu Nu xut pht t li trc thu ta c: Li trc thu = Doanh thu chi ph ra doanh thu (Doanh thu = tin + n phi thu) Chi ph to ra doanh thu = (tin + HTK + Cp tr trc, phn b + NPTr + KH + D phng + Li vay) Dng tin thun t HKD = Li trc thu + KH + D phng + Li vay + HTK + CP tr trc, phn b + N phi thu + N phi tr Nh vy nu bt u t li trc thu xc nh dng tin thun trc thu ca HKD th vic iu chnh c thc hin nh sau: KHTSC: iu chnh tng tc l cng vo Cc khon d phng: iu chnh tng tc l cng vo Li vay: iu chnh tng tc l cng vo i vi HTK: Nu SDCK > SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK > 0): iu chnh gim v c 1 b phn tin c chuyn thnh HTK Nu SDCK < SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK < 0): iu chnh tng v c 1 b phn HTK c chuyn thnh tin. i vi n phi thu: Nu SDCK > SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK > 0): iu chnh gim v c 1 b phn tin c chuyn thnh n phi thu Nu SDCK < SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK < 0): iu chnh tng v c 1 b phn n phi thu c chuyn thnh tin. i vi chi ph tr trc, phn b: Nu SDCK > SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK > 0): iu chnh gim v c 1 b phn tin c chuyn thnh chi ph tr trc, phn b. Nu SDCK < SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK < 0): iu chnh tng v c 1 b phn chi ph tr trc, phn b c chuyn thnh tin. i vi n phi tr: Nu SDCK > SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK > 0): iu chnh tng v c 1 b phn n phi tr c chuyn thnh tin. Nu SDCK < SDK th chnh lch (SDCK SDK < 0): iu chnh gim v c 1 b phn tin c dng tr n.

 ch : V mc ch iu chnh l c c dng tin thun trc thu ca HKD nn cn lu n vic c th trn BCTN ch tiu li trc thu c bao gm c li nhun ca HT v khon li l do chnh lch t gi cha thc hin. Nu c nhng khon ny th nhng khon ny cng s phi b iu chnh theo nguyn tc nu li th iu chnh gim (-) ngc li l th iu chnh tng (+). + Nu i t li sau thu: Vic iu chnh ny ging nh i t li trc thu ch khc 1 chi tit l khng iu chnh li vay. BNG BC DNG TIN HOT NG CA CNG TY NUMBER ONE nm 2006 (theo phng php gin tip) Ch tiu I. TM + Tng trong khon phi thu = ( 450 250) + Tng trong HTK = ( 1000 600) + Tng trong khon khon tr = ( 740 60) + Tng trg tin lng phi tr = ( 250 40) Dng tin thun HKD II. Dng tin hot ng u t Thu tin thanh l TSC Chi tr tin mua TS +100 -2.870 -2.770 TM Dng khu hao iu chnh nhng khon thay i ngoi -200 -400 +680 +210 +780 Dng tin HKD: Li rng iu chnh nhng khon chi khng bng +170 +320 Dng tin

Dng tin thun HT III. Dng tin hot ng ti tr + + + Thu tin Pht hnh CPT N vay DH Chi tr c tc

+2.180 +980 +1.200 -280 -1.900 -90 +250 +160

Dng tin thun hot ng ti tr Tng dng tin thun TM tn qu 31/12/05 TM tn qu 31/12/06

Thay i trong qu TM c) * Ging nhau: Cc thng tin nhn c trn BCDTin

-90

BCDTin c lp theo phng php trc tip v phng php gin tip iu cho thy: Ti thi im cui k TM tn qu l bao nhiu. Vi s lng TM tn qi\y ny th tnh thanh khon v tnh linh hot v TC ca DN l ntn? (T ngoi DN) DN c kh nng to ra tin khng? Tin m DN c n t hot ng no? DN c bit s dng tin khng? S dng cho mc ch g? (Mua TSC) S dng tin c hp l khng? (C)

* Khc nhau: Tuy nhin, gia BCDTin lp theo phng php trc tip v phng php gin tip cng c im khc: BCDTin theo phng php gin tip cho thy chin lc nh i gia vic lu gi tin sang gia tng HTK, gia tng khon phi thu, gia tng khon phi tr, vic xc lp dng tin thun ca HKD theo phng php gin tip cn cho thy mi lin h gia li nhun vi dng tin thun t HKD gip ngi nh thng tin thy rng khng phi DN c li l c tin nhiu, DN b l th c tin t hoc khng c tin. IV. 1. nht) CC PHNG PHP DNG TRONG PHN TCH DNG TIN: Phng php s dng c t s ti chnh phn tch: (l phng php quan trng TS ngn hn, n ngn hn = 2 ( 1 ng n c m bo = 2 ng TS) ROE = Li rng/ VCP (C ng thng) T s TC c hnh thnh bng cch ly 1 ch tiu ny chia cho 1 ch tiu khc nh gi tc ng qua li gia 2 ch tiu vi nhau t gip ngi phn tch c du hiu nhn bit tnh hnh TC ca DN l ntn? TSTC c th c ngi phn tch to ra khi cn nhng khi to ra t s cn lu : Phi m bo s tng thch gia 2 ch tiu hnh thnh nn t s cc kha cnh: + Phi tng thch ch 2 ch tiu phic quan h vi nhau + Phi m bo s tng thch trong mi quan h nhn qu gia 2 ch tiu + Phi m bo s tng thch gia tnh thi im v tnh thi k ca 2 ch tiu hnh thnh nn t s. C 5 nhm TSTC c bn ph bin dng trong phn tch: Nhm 1: T s thanh ton ( t s kh nng thanh ton i vi NNH) dng nh gi tnh thanh khon, kh nng thanh ton ca DN i v cc khon NNH. Ty theo cp nh gi nhm t s ny gm 3 t s: Bao qut nht l T S THANH TON HIN HNH, cp chun xc KH NNG THANH TON NHANH, cp chun xc th 2 l KH NNG THANH TON TC THI BNG TIN MT. V nguyn tc nhm t s ny cng > 1, cng nhiu cng tt nhng phi ty thuc vo c im ngnh c bit l phi c s so sanh gia cc nm v s so snh ca cng ty v cc i th cnh tranh Nhm 2: Nhm t s hot ng ( nhm ts lun chuyn, nhm ts hiu qu): dng nh gi hiu qu s dng TS ca DN. Nhm ny c hnh thnh n gin: 360/ s vng quay S vng quay HTK = DThu / HTK K lun chuyn HTK =

 S vng quay khon phi thu = DThu / Khon phi thu K thu tin BQ = 360/ s vng quay k phi thu S vng quay tin mt = Dthu / TM Hiu qu s dng TSNH = DThu / TSNH Hiu qu s dng TSC = Dthu / TSC Hiu qu s dng tng TS = DThu / TTS Hiu qu s dng VCP = DThu / VCP

Ch : S vng quay HTK: 1 vng quay c tnh t lc hng nhp kho cho n lc a ra tiu th v c doanh thu s vng quay cng ln tc lun chuyn ca hng cng nhanh, tc lun chuyn cng nhanh phi nhn vo c th ngnh ( ngnh thng mi khc ngnh rau c qu) v tnh cht casn phm, c bit ngnh tnh cht hng ha S vng quay khon phi thu ( hay c thay th bgn k thu tin bnh qun): 1 vng quay khon phi thu c tnh t lc khch hng n tin cho n lc khch hng tr tin. Cn k thu tin BQ ni ln s ngy m khch hng chim dng vn ca DN nn s vng quay cng cao k thu tin BQ thp (hoc khng ab1n chu (thc cht tn dng) hoc l c bn chu nhng DN qun l rt tt khon phi thu) v trong trng hp ngc l vng quay thp k thu tin BQ cao th cng ty ang ni rng tn dng tng cng bn chu ri ro tn dng cao ( xem chnh sch bn chu c hiu qu khng) hoc l n phi thu chuyn thnh n phi thu kh i Vng quay tin mt 4 t d hiu qu: 1 ng TSNH, TSC, TTS, VCP lm ra c bao nhiu doanh thu (Doanh thu cao th cng tt) Nhm 3: T s n by TC ( nhm ts CTV) ln quan n NDH. NNH khng c n by do n ngn tm thi v n vi rt nhanh nhng khicn th vay khng cn th tr trong khi NDH vay di hn c th c 1 khong thi gian khng cn phi gi c ri ro v th phi tn dng n by hiu qu. Nhm t s sinh li ny s dng phn tch quyt nh ti tr, tc l CTV ca DN nh gi vic s dng n, tc l s dng n by TC ca DN ntn. Thun li hoc bt li, c khuych i thu nhp cho CSH khng. Ri ro ntn. Nhm t s ny c chia thnh 2 nhm nh: + Nhm 1 s dng nh gi mc s dng BTC l cao hay thp. Nhm t s ny bao gm cc yu t: T s N / TS = Tng N / Tng TS T s N / VCP = Tng N / VCP T s TS / VCP = Tng TS / VCP

+ Nhm 2 s dng nh gi iu kin s dng BTC bit c BTC l thun li hoc bt li bao gm: N / TS = 50% N / VCP = 1 TS / VCP = 2 Nhm 4: T s sinh li dng nh gi kh na7ng sinh li ca DN. Nhm t s ny c hnh thnh bng cch ly li rng chia cho ch tiu mun nh gi kh nng sinh li iu ni ln mc n l 50% Kh nng thanh ton li vay = EBIT / Li vay V d: Tng TS 1000tr trong c N 500tr v VCP l 500tr

+ T s sinh li rng / DT = ROS ( vd = 10% trong 10 ng doanh thu th sinh c 10 ng li rng c dng nh gi qun l chi ph ca DN + T s li rng / TS = ROA : kh nng sinh li ca TS + T s li rng / VCP = ROE ch tiu ni ln thu nhp ca CSH, mc tiu ca DN l ti a ha mc tiu ny Nhm 5: Nhm ch s gi tr th trng ( nhm t s ny dnh ring cho loi hnh cng ty c phn, c ngha l khi phn tch cng ty nh nhc th khng dng) cho thy DN c cc c ng NT nh gi ntn? Nhm t s ny cho thy cng ty c NT nh gi ntn bao gm: + EPS = Tng TNCT / Tng s lng CP thng + T l chia tr c tc = C tc 1 CP / TN 1 CP = DIV / EPS + T s gi tr th trng / Thu Nhp = P / E Trong : P: l gi th trng trn 1 CP E: l thu nhp 1 CP + T sut c tc = C tc 1 CP / gi th trng 1 CP = D / P u, khuyt im ca phng php phn tch t s TC: u l vic tnh ton n gin, Khuyt l ch c ngha khi c so snh. 2. Phng php chia tch (phn tch Dupont) Lun i km vi phng php phn tch thng qua cc t s TC, s dng cc t s TC phn tch l 1 phng php ph bin v c p dng rng ri tuy nhin cn lu + Vic tnh ton 1 t s th rt n gin, rt d nhng vic din gii 1 t s th rt phc tp + T s ch c ngha khi s c so snh, phn tch v nh gi, c bit l phi bit c nguyn nhn dn n s bin nt ca 1 t s l do u? Chnh v vy khi phn tch t s ngi phn tch lun s dng km vi phng php phn tch Dupont ( chia tch 1 t s ra thnh tch ca nhiu t s tm ra nguyn nhn dn n s bin ng * C th khi phn tch ROA ROA = Li rng / Tng TS = Li rng / DThu * DThu / TS S bin ng trong ROA trc ht l do li rng v do tng TS, tuy nhin tm hiu nguyn nhn nh hng n ROA c th dng Dupont chia tch nh sau: Cch 1: ROA = (Li rng / DThu) * (DThu / TTS) bng s chia tch ny cho thy nh hng n ROA l do kh nng sinh li ca doanh thu ( tc l li nhun bin) v hiu qu s dng TS Cch 2: ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ...........................................................................................................................................................................

+ Khi phn tch ROE ROE = Li rng / VCP S bin ng ca ROE l do li rng v VCP, tuy nhin c th dng Dupont chia tch ROE tm nguyn nhn Hiu qu s dng TS v VCP ROE = ( Li rng / DThu) * (DThu / TS) * (TS / VCP) Kh nng sinh li ca doanh thu, hiu qu s dng TS v VCP ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................... BI TP: 2 cng ty A v B trong cng ngnh, nm va qua ROA ca 2 cng ty u mc rt thp: Ch tiu Doanh thu Li rng Tng TS Cng ty A 2.000.000 200.000 20.000.000 Cng ty B 40.000.000 200.000 20.000.000 ROE = (Li rng / DThu) * (DThu / VCP) ROE = (Li rng / TS) * ROA * (TS / VCP) Kh nng sinh li ca doanh thu v hiu qu s dng VCP

3. Phng php so snh ( Phng php sosnh hng ngang) phng php ny thng c phn tch cc bo co TC, cc t s TC ca DN qua cc thi k hoc gia cng ty vi cc i th cnh tranh trong cng ngnh. Phng php ny thng lin quan n vic xem xt nhng thay i trong s d ca tng khon, tng ch tiu trong cc bo co ca cng ty gia nm ny so vi nm khc hoc so snh nhiu nm vi nhau thy c xu hng bin ng theo thi gian, tnh hnh ca cng ty l ntn? Phng php ny thng c tin hnh thng qua 2 k thut + Phn tch bin ng theo tng nm + Phn tch ch s xu hng (xem sch) (Lu u v khuyt im) 4. Phng php phn tch t trng (phng php chiu dc) Phng php ny thng c phn tch kt cu TS, CTV (cu trc TC), kt cu CP, t trng % tng kghon mc chi ph trong doanh thu ngoi ra phng php phn tch t trng rt hu ch trong vic so snh tnh hnh TC gia cc cng ty thnh vin hoc l so snh tnh hnh TC gia 1 cng ty sovi cc i th cnh tranh trong ngnh tuy nhin phng php ny c 1 nhc im l khng phn nh c quy m ca cng ty trong phn tch.

CHNG:

PHN TCH DNG TIN

I.

CC THC O DNG TIN V CC T S CHUYN BIT DNG TRONG PHN TCH DNG TIN + Dng tin th + Dng tin t do a) Dng tin th: Cc thc o dng tin Khi phn tch dng tin ngi phn tch c th s dng 2 thc o dng tin

Nh phn tch thng dng thc o th v dng tin: Thu nhp rng cng cc ph khng bng tin ( c bit l khu hao v chi ph tr dn) V d: Hy xc nh dng tin th hng nm cho 2 cng ty A v B hot ng trong cng ngnh da vo cc thng tin nh sau: + C 2 cng ty u u t 100.000 $ vo TSC, thi gian trch khu hao u l 5 nm nhng A trch khu hao tuyn tnh c nh, B trch khu hao theo tng s nm ( khu hao = nguyn gi * t l khu hao hng nm = nguyn gi * (s nm phc v cn li / tng s nm) + Li rng A 1 nm 70.000 $, li rng B 1 nm l n1 = 56.667$, n2 = 63.333$, n3 = 70.000$, n4 = 76.667, n5 = 83.333$ Nm La rng 1 2 3 4 5 Nhn xt: nhau Nu dng li rng nh gi kt qu HKD ca 2 cng ty th: 2 nm u cng ty A hot ng c hiu qu hn Nm th 3, 2 cng ty c hiu qu nh nhau 2 nm cui cng ty B c hiu qu cao hn Nu cn c dng tin th nh gi th c 5 nm 2 cng ty c hiu qu l nh 70.000 70.000 70.000 70.000 70.000 A Khu hao 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 CF (th) 90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000 Li rng 56.667 63.333 70.000 76.667 83.333 b Khu hao 100.000*(5/15) = 33.333 100.000*(4/15) = 26.667 100.000*(3/15) = 20.000 100.000 (2/15) = 13.333 100.000*(1/15) = 6.667 CF (th) 90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000

Nu cn c vo li rng nh gi kt qu hot ng ca cng ty th s khng chnh xc v: S khc bit trong li rng 1 nm ca 2 cng ty l do c khc nhau trong phng php khu hao Li rng c th b o lm cho vic nh gi kt qu hot ng ca 2 cng ty l khng chnh xc do nguyn nhn BCTN, ngi xc nh li rng li dng khu hao lm thay i li rng Khu hao khng phi l dng tin thc chi nhng khi tnh li rng th li b tr ra

 V tt c l do khi phn tch kt qu HKD ca cng ty dic gc l kt qu thc s th phi cn c vo dng tin th b) Dng tin t do: FCF = CF (thun ca HKD) Chi tiu vn Chi tr c tc Ch : Kh nng tng trng v tnh linh hot v mt TC ca DN ph thuc rt ln vo DThu t do v: + Nu dng tin t do > 0 cho thy s tin c sn t HKD ca DN sau khi p ng c cc yu cu u t v ti tr th vn p ng c cho cc nhu vu khc c lin quan n tin ngc li + Nu dng tin t do < 0 c ngha l tin m DN c t HKD khng ch p ng cho nhu cu u t ti tr v do DN buc phi t b cc c hi u t mi, c ngha l kh nng tng trng ca DN khng cn na II. 1. MC TIU PHN TCH DNG TIN Tm quan trng v ngha phn tch dng tin:

Tin mt lun l TS c tnh thanh khon v tnh linh hot v mt TC cao nht, tin gn cht vi HKD ca Dn t khi bt u cho n khi kt thc v vy phn tch dng tin c ngha rt quan trng: i vi nh u t: BC dng tin v phn tch dng tin giap NT nh gi c cht lng thu nhp m cng ty to ra, gip cho NT loi b nhng hoi nghi v vic s dng phng php hch ton k ton ta ra li nhun, phn tch dng tin s gip cho NT nh gi c cht lng thu nhp trong tng lai lm nn tng cho vic xc nh gi tr thc u t, gip NT khng ri vo cm by li nhun ca cng ty. i vi nh qun tr cng ty: phn tch dng tin tr li c nhng vn quan trng lin quan n tin ca DN nh: Tin m DN c n t u, t hot ng no, c bn vng khng DN s dng tin ntn, s dng tin cho mc ch g, c hp l v hiu qu khng? ( lin quan n s dng ngun) phi i vay hay khng Liu DN c tin tr cho cc khon n n hn m khng

Liu DN c tin thc hin cc c hi u t mi m khng phc thuc vo ngun ti tr bn ngoi hay khng 2. Mc tiu ca phn tch dng tin: Khi phn tch dng tin phi p ng cc mc tiu nh sau Phn tch dng tin phi gip DN kp thi pht hin nhng cn bnh c hu c lin quan n tin t c th nh hng n tnh hnh TC ca DN nh: Liu DN c ang ri vo tnh trng kh khn v TC dn n kit qu TC v i mt vi nguy c ph sn khng. Liu DN c ang phi i mt vi cc khon n xu t nh hng n quan h tn dng i vi nh cung cp khng n Tnh thanh khon tc l kh nng chuyn i TS thnh tin ca DN ntn. Tnh linh hot v mt TC ra sao. Ti sao tin mt ca DN th thp m thu nhp th li tng. Vn chi tr c tc ntn khi DN ri vo tnh trng kh khn v TC Phn tch dng tin phi nh gi c kh nng to ra tin ca DN l ntn tc l DN c kh nng lm ra tin khng, tin m DN to ra c bn vng khng

 Phn tch dng tin phi nh gi c tnh hnh s dng tin ca DN l ntn tc l DN s dng tin c hp l v hiu qu khng Phn tch dng tin phi nh gi c s lun chuyn tin mt trong k ca DN l ntn tc l phi phn tch dng tin vo v ra ca cng ty t 3 hot ng ( t phn tch ny s gip ngi phn tch xc nh c u l ngun gc ca li nhun v cht lng ca li nhun ntn, cc nhn t nh hng li nhun thc s ca cng ty l g t nh gi c xu hng v d bo v thu nhp trong tng laic ho cng ty. Phn tch dng tin phi nh gi chin lc nh i ca Dn trong vic lu gi tin sang gia tng HTK, gia t8ang khon phi thu, gia tng khon phi tr l ntn? Phi so snh c mi lin h gia li rng trn BCTN vi dng tin thun ca HKD tr li cho cu hi tin ca DN nm u III. NI DUNG V PHNG PHP PHN TCH DNG TIN phn tch dng tin c th tin hnh qua 4 bc: * Bc 1: S dng phn tch t trng xc nh: ng. T trng dng tin thun ca tng hot ng trong tng dng tin thun ca tt c hot

T trng dng tin vo dng tin ra ca tng hot ng trong tng dng tin vo tng dng tin ra ca tt c hot ng ng T trng ca tng khon mc ( khon mc ch yu) trong tng dng tin ca tng hot

Mc tiu ca bc ny l thy c kt cut dng tin ca DN l ntn * Bc 2 : Dng phng php so snh hng ngang tc l phng php phn tch bin ng tng nm hoc ch s xu hng nh gi bin ng trong c quy m v t trng cc dng tin Mc tiu ca bc ny l thy c xu hng bin ng qua thi gian trong cc dng tin ca DN l ntn * Bc 3: a ra cc nhn nh nh gi tm hiu nguyn nhn tc ng trong c cu v xu hng bin ng. bc ny ngi phn tch c th kt hp phn tch t s v cc thc o dng tin c bit l phi p ng c cc mc tiu m phn tch dng tin t ra. * Bc 4: a ra nhng khuyn ngh cnh bo cho cng ty t nhng phn tch bc 3.

CHNG 11: PHN TCH TSSL TRN VT

I. Ch : ROI c dng nh gi c 100 ng VT th s to ra c bao nhiu ng thu nhp do khi xc nh ROI cn phi lm r thu nhp l thu nhp g v VT l VT ca ai c bit l v dy l t s nn khi hnh thnh phi m bo s tng thch gia t v mu. Thu nhp c th l doanh thu, EBIT, li trc thu, li sau thu, tng thu nhp c ng thng. Cn VT th c th l tng TS hoc VCP T cc bin tng ca ROI c th l: DT / TS EBIT / TS Li trc thu / TS Li sau thu / TS (ROA) CNG THC TNH TSSL TRN VT (ROI) ROI = Thu nhp / VT

DT / VCP EBIT / VCP

Tng TN ca C Thng / TS

Li trc thu / VCP Li sau thu / VCP (ROA) Tng TN ca C Thng / VCP (ROE) Chng ny top trung phn tch cc t s nh gi kh nng sinh li tc l tp trung phn tch ROA v ROE II. V ROE TM QUAN TRNG V NGHA CA ROA

ROA v ROE c ngha rt quan trng v ging nhau 1 s kha cnh nh: C nhiu thc o nh gi thnh qu hot ng ca cng ty. Tuy nhin khng c thc o no nh gi tt nht thnh qu ny bng ROA v ROE, 2 t s ny cn cho php so snh thnh qu v ri ro gia cc cng ty trong cng ngnh C ROA ln ROE u cho thy s thnh cng hay tht bi ca DN trong vic thu ht ngun ti tr, ti chi tr cho ch n v thng cho cc CSH C ROA ln ROE cn c dng nh gi tnh hiu qu ca cng tc qun tr mc sinh li hay mc kh nng sinh li, d bo thu nhp hoch nh v kim sot. Tuy nhin ROA v ROE cng c nhng ngha ring c th: ROA: l thc o nh gi kh nng sinh li ca TS l kt qu ca quyt nh u t lin quan n vic u t mua sm TS ntn, s dng TS c hiu qu khng kh nng sinh li ca doanh thu ra sao ROE: l thc o nh gi kh nng sinh li ca VCSH 100 ng vn ca CSH b ra th sinh li bao nhiu ng. ROE l mc tiu m cc DN phi hng n c th ti a ha gi tr DN, nu nh ROA l kt qu ca quyt nh u t th ROE l kt qu ca quyt nh ti tr ca s kt hp gia quyt nh u t v quyt nh ti tr c bit l di tc ng ca vic s dng n by TC. Ngoi ra ROE cn c quyt nh bi ROA iu ny c th hin nh sau: ROE = ROA + (ROA Rd) * D / E Trong : Rd: TSSL ca n D: N E: VCP + CTV 100% VCP: ROE = ROA * ROE < ROA khi khng tha mn iu kin trn III. 1. PHN TCH ROA Cng thc tnh ROA v 1 s iu chnh: ROA = Li rng / TTS V ROA l thc o nh gi kh nng sinh li ca TS do c nhng nhn nh nh gi chun xc ROA th trc khi phn tch tc l khi tnh ton ROA phi c 1 s iu chnh: iu chnh li rng: + Trong trng hp tng TS c ti tr bng n th li rng phi c iu chnh bng cch cng li li vay * (1-T) + CTV gm N v VCP: * ROE > ROA khi ROA > 0 v ROA > Rd

+ Nu trong cng ty c quyn li thiu s trong thu nhp th li rng cng phi c iu chnh bng cch cng thm yu t ny ( li vay * ( 1 T)) t BCKT do khi tnh ROA phi c 1 s iu chnh nh: iu chnh TS: V TS c ly

+ Cng thm vo nhng TS c tham gia vo hot ng ca DN nhng v l do no cha c ghi nhn vo BCKT + Loi b nhng TS khng hot ng nhng li c ghi nhn vo BCKT nh: TS ch thanh l, TS khng dng, tin v tng ng tin, TSTC ( trong trng hp ch phn tch ROA ca HKD) BCKT bng cch TS phi c tnh BQ ROA sau iu chnh = TS sau iu chnh BQ 2. Mc tiu phn tch ROA V ROA c dng nh gi kh nng sinh li ca TS nn khi phn tch ROA cn phi p ng cc mc tiu sau: + Phi nh gi TS ca DN c kh nng sinh li khng + Phi nh gi xu hng bin ng trong ROA ca cng ty theo thi gian qua cc nm ntn, tt ln hay xu in nh hay khng n nh + Phi nh gi ROA ca cng ty so vi cc i th cnh tranh trong cng ngnh l ntn? C s sai bit gia ROA ca cng ty vi ROA ca cc i th cnh tranh khng + Phi tm ra nguyn nhn dn n s bin ng trong ROA ca cng ty qua cc nm, nguyn nhn dn n s sai lch trong ROA ca cng ty vi cc i th cnh tranh: do kh nng sinh li ca doanh thu do vn qun l chi ph hay do vic u t mua sm TS, vic s dng hiu qu TS + T ROA phi nh gi c nh hng ca ROA n ROE l ntn 3. bc) PHNG PHP V NI DUNG PHN TCH: (4 iu chnh tnh thi im ca

TN rng + l vay * ( 1-T) + quyn li thiu s trong thu nhp

phn tch ROA c th tin hnh qua 4 bc: * Bc 1: Tnh ROA ca cng ty qua cc nm, ROA ca cc i th cnh tranh trong cng ngnh. bc ny c th phi thc hin 1 s iu chnh trong vic tnh ton ROA Mc tiu ca bc ny l xem xt TS ca DN c sinh li khng? TS ca cc i th cnh tranh c kh nng sinh li khng * Bc 2: Dng phng php so snh hng ngang: bin ng nm so vi nm v ch s xu hng + So snh ROA ca cng ty qua cc nm + So snh ROA ca cng ty vi cc i th cnh tranh trong ngnh Mc tiu ca bc ny l thy c xu hng bin ng theo thi gian ROA ca cng ty l ntn? ROA ca cng ty vi cc i th cnh tranh ra sao * Bc 3: a ra nhng nhn nh v tm hiu nguyn nhn dn n s bin ng tron ROA ca cng ty qua cc nm cng nh s sai lch trong ROA ca cng ty so vi cc i th cnh tranh trong ngnh. bc ny c th phi s dng phng php phn tch dupont chia tch ROA tm nguyn nhn * Bc 4: a ra nhng khuyn ngh cnh bo cho cng ty. IV. PHN TCH ROE

1.

Cng thc ROE v 1 s iu chnh: ROE = Li rng / VCP

V ROE l thc o nh gi kh nng sinh li VCSH nn phi c 1 s iu chnh khi tnh ROE nh sau: iu chnh li rng: trong trng hp CVT c ti tr bng CPU th li rng phi c iu chnh bng cch tr li tc CPU. Ni cch khc tnh ROE th nn da vo tng thu nhp ca c ng thng. im ca BCKT VCP nn c tnh BQ: 2. iu chnh VCP loi b tc ng bi tnh thi

ROE (sau iu chnh) = (li rng LTCPU) / VCP BQ Mc tiu phn tch ROE: Khi phn tch ROE cn phi m bo cc mc tiu phn tch nh sau:

Phi nh gi c kh nng sinh li ca VCSH l c hay khng tc l 100 ng vn m CSH b ra th to ra c bao nhiu ng li rng Phi nh gi c xu hng bin ng theo thi gian tc l qua cc nm ROE ca cng ty l ntn: tt ln hay xu i, n nh hay khng nh, phi nh gi c c hay khng s sai lch gia ROE ca cng ty so vi cc i th cnh tranh trong ngnh Phi tm ra nguyn nhn dn n s bin ng trong ROE qua cc nm l do u, phi gii thch s sai lch gia ROE ca cng ty vi cc i th cnh tranh l do u + S bin ng trong ROE c phi n t vn kh nng sinh li ca TS (ROA) m c th l n t li nhun bin, n t vn qun l chi ph, n t vn u t mua sm TS hay n t vn s dng TS + S bin ng trong ROE c phi n t cn s dng BTC tc l Dn cs dng BTC khuych i ROE khng, nu c th BTC l thun li hay bt li, ri ro ca Dn ntn, tc ng g cho ROE: 1 s gia tng hay 1 s st gim ( y cn lm r Sn mua li c phn bgn ngun tin no: ngun tin mt hin c ca DN hay ngun tin mt n t vic ct gim HTK, ct gim khon phi thu hay n t vay mn) + Khi phn tch ROE phi nh gi c kh nng sinh li trong di hn ca Dn l ntn? Tim nng trin vng ca cng ty ra sao, tc tng trng bn vng ca cng ty l bao nhiu: g = ROE * t l LNGL 3. bc ging ROA) V. Ni dung phng phn tch ROE ( 4