Professional Documents
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TS V Thanh Thu
LI M U
Khng th ph nhn vai tr hot ng kinh doanh xut nhp khu trong tin trnh hi nhp v
pht trin kinh t ca mt quc gia. Xut khu mang li ngun thu nhp ngoi t cho quc gia th
nhp khu th hin s giao thng hp tc gia cc th trng trn th gii, to iu kin cho ngi
dn trong nc tip cn vi cc sn phm mang chun quc t.
Vit Nam ang trong qu trnh hi nhp vo thng mi th gii v xut nhp khu gi mt v
tr v cng quan trng trong ngn sch quc gia. Trong tin trnh h nhp, Vit Nam v ang t
c nhiu thnh tu, m rng ngy cng nhiu hn na mi quan h vi cc quc gia trn th gii.
Th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam ngy cng c a dng, hng ha Vit Nam dn dn khng
nh ch ng trn trng quc t.
Th nhng, Vit Nam lun phi i mt vi tnh trng nhp siu qua cc nm. Cho thy, Vit
Nam vn cha tn dng, khai thc c tim nng tng kim ngch xut khu cc th trng ch
lc. Do , cc doanh nghip phi hp vi cc c quan chc nng cn nhanh chng c nhng hnh
ng khc phc tnh trng nhp siu ca quc gia.
gip hiu hn v tnh hnh giao thng ca Vit Nam v cc nc trn Th gii chng ti
chn ti Th trng xut khu ch lc v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu vi mc
ch chnh l im qua tnh hnh xut khu qua cc th trng ch lc ca Vit Nam v ra gii
php y mnh xut khu cho tng th trng.
B cc ti: ti gm 3 phn chnh:
I: Tnh hnh chung v th trng xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam
II: Tnh hnh xut khu trn tng th trng ch lc ca Vit Nam
III: Gii php y mnh xut khu cho tng th trng.
V y l mt ti kh rng i hi phi c mt kin thc vng chc v xut nhp khu nn
nhm chng ti kh trnh khi nhng sai st trong qu trnh thc hin, rt mong nhn c s ch
dn ca C chng ti c th thc hin tt hn cho cc mn hc khc cng nh trong cng vic
sau ny. Nhm chng ti rt cm n s hng dn ca C.
Nhm sinh vin thc hin
-1-
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
I. Khi qut tnh hnh th trng xut nhp khu Vit Nam
1.Th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam:
Theo s liu t Tng cc Thng k, xut khu hng ha 6 thng u nm mang v cho t
nc 42,33 t USD, tng 30,3% so vi cng k nm ngoi. Trong , xut khu ca khu vc kinh t
trong nc t 19,38 t USD, tng 12,9% v xut khu c vn u t nc ngoi l 42,95 t USD,
tng 31,1%.
Tng trng xut khu nh vy gp 3 ln so vi ch tiu k hoch c Quc hi thng qua
(10%) hi u nm.
Trong s 26 nhm/mt hng ch yu xut khu 6 thng qua, ch c 4 nhm/mt hng st gim v
kim ngch l ch (-2,9%); sn phm my tre, ci, thm (-3%); qu, kim loi qu v sn phm
(-32,1%); v dy in v cp in (-4,9%), 3 nhm/mt hng tng trng mt ch s: in t, my
tnh 6,3%): sn phm gm s (7,5%) v than (1,8%) v 1 mt hng t mc tng ba ch s l c
ph (103%).
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
xut khu ca c nm. Theo d bo mi nht ca B, xut khu c ph nm nay s khong 1,3 triu
tn, kim ngch gn 3 t USD.
Go
Xut khu go 6 thng u nm trn 4 triu tn, tr gi 1,97 t USD, tng 13,1% v kim ngch
v 15,9% v khi lng so vi cng k nm ngoi. Tng trng v lng cao hn gi tr bi gi go
nm nay thp hn. Trin vng xut khu go nhng thng cn li kh lc quan v chng ta c thm
cc khch hng mi. Hip hi Lng thc Vit Nam d kin trong qu 3 s xut 1,9 triu tn; qu 4
xut 1,2 triu tn, nh vy cng vi lng go trn 4 triu tn xut trong 6 thng u nm, th c
nm 2011 s xut trn 7 triu tn mc k lc mi.
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nh vy, cng vi kim ngch xut khu 42,33 t USD, tng mc nhp siu 6 thng u nm c
khong 6,65 t USD, tng 3% so vi cng k nm 2010 v bng 15,7% so vi tng kim ngch xut
khu.
Trong s 30 nhm/mt hng nhp khu ch yu c 3 mt hng gim v kim ngch l xe my
nguyn chic (-8,3%), rau qu (5,8%) v thc n gia sc v nguyn ph liu (NPL) (-1%). Ch c 2
mt hng tng trng mt ch s l st thp (7%) v phng tin vn ti khc ngoi t xe my v
ph tng (4,1%). Duy c bng l mt hng nhp khu tng 3 ch s 103,6%.
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nhp khu vi may mc cc loi t gn 3,43 t USD trong na u nm nay, tng 38,1% so vi
cng k nm ngoi. Theo Tp on Dt may Vit Nam (Vinatex), vic nhp khu nguyn liu tng
mnh do gi nguyn liu tng cao nhng thc cht l gim v s lng (-10% so vi cng k nm
ngoi).
St thp
Kim ngch nhm mt hng ny t gn 3 t USD trong 6 thng qua, tng 7% so vi cng k nm
ngoi. Khi lng nhp v gim 15,6% xung 3,52 triu tn.
Cht do
Nhp khu cht do tng 31,5% v gi tr v 10,7% v lng so vi cng k nm ngoi, t ln
lt 2,28 t USD v 1,21 triu tn.
Phn bn
Nhp khu phn bn vo nc ta 6 thng u nm 2011 t 659 triu USD, tng 48,3% so vi
cng k nm ngoi. Lng phn bn nhp khu t 1,73 triu tn, tng 22% so vi cng k. Trung
Quc vn l ngun nhp khu phn bn ch cht, chim 33,3% gi tr. Cc ngun nhp khu khc
cng tng mnh nh Philippin tng gp 2,2 ln, B gp 3,5 ln v Canada tng 80,3% so vi cng k
nm 2010.
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Vt mc tiu
Ti Hi ngh s kt cng tc 6 thng u nm v trin khai nhim v 6 thng cui nm 2011 ca
B Cng Thng din ra ngy 4/7, V Xut nhp khu ca B cho rng, vi tc tng trng ca
6 thng qua th mc tiu kim ngch xut khu 79,4 t USD (tng trng trn 10%) trong nm nay
nm trong tm tay. B Cng Thng d bo, xut khu c th mang v cho t nc 84,5 85,5 t
USD trong nm nay, tng 17 18,4% so vi nm 2010.
II. Tnh hnh xut nhp khu trn tng th trng ch lc ca Vit Nam.
1. Hoa K
Tnh hnh xut nhp khu gia Vit Nam v Hoa K nhng nm gn y
VT: 1000 USD
NM
Xut khu
Nhp khu
Tng kim
ngch
2007
10,104,538
1,700,464
11,805,002
2008
11,868,509
2,635,288
16,778,600
2009
11,355,757
3,009,392
13,759,902
2010
14,238,351
3,766,126
18,004,477
6 thng u nm 2011
7,685,447
1,355,054
9,040,051
-7-
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
Xut khu
Nhp khu
5,000,000
Tng kimngch
0
2007
2008
-8-
2009
2010
6 thng
u nm
2011
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
6 thng u
nm 2011
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
10,089,12
11,868,50
11,355,75
14,238,25
8
4,465,193
9
5,105,740
7
4,994,916
1
5,754,329
Giy dp
885,147
1,075,130
1,038,826
2,319,292
1,080,769
G v sn phm g
948,473
1,063,990
1,100,184
2,219,537
727,172
Thy sn
728,523
738,888
711,149
1,023,395
481,126
Du th
782,205
997,980
469,934
891,156
369,342
273,383
304,871
433,219
662,660
239,408
Ht iu
227,851
267,718
255,224
668,983
266,197
C ph
212,666
210,770
196,674
513,012
154,712
Tiu
20,742
46,585
43,615
95,000
68,244
Cao su
39,120
43,337
28,521
67,067
45,711
Hng gm s
39,540
40,638
29,322
71,250
39,494
My vi tnh, sp in t
v linh kin
7,685,447
4,184,184
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Hoa K t 10.8 t USD, tng 28.6% so vi
nm 2006 v vn gi v tr ng u. Tuy nhin cuc khng hong tin t ca M giai on
2007-2009 lm cho nhu cu nhp khu t th trng ny bt u suy gim.
Nhng mt hng c gi tr ln nh du th ri vo tnh trng bt n nh do du m cho sn
xut v tiu dng gim, kim ngch t 1.02 t USD nm 2006 ch cn 0.78 t USD nm 2007.
Vic xut khu mt hng ny gp nhiu kh khn do gi khng n nh v gim lin tc gy cho
cc doanh nghip xut khu thit hi ln, tc tng trng m(-24%).
Xut khu mt hng tiu nm 2007 cng gim ng k v tng trng m (-30.21%).
Ngy 11/1/2007 M chnh thc bi b hn ngch dt may i vi Vit Nam, cc doanh
nghip khng phi lm th tc cp visa xut khu. c bi b hn ngch tuy c to thun li
cho cc doanh nghip gia tng xut khu th hin qua kim ngch xut khu nm 2007 t 4.4 t
USD, tng 46% so vi nm 2006 v chim 44 % t trng xut khu. Nhng dt may s phi i
mt vi nhiu ro cn tinh vi hn.
M l mt trong hai th trng nhp khu g ni tht ln nht trn th gii (cng vi Nht
Bn). Xut khu g ni tht ca Vit Nam vo th trng ny tng nhanh do nhng yu t:
thu nhp khu g gim mnh (trung bnh t 50% - 55% xung cn 0% - 3%); mt s cng ty
M ang c xu hng khai thc thm ngun hng ngoi Trung Quc i ph vi thu chng
ph gi; nng lc cung ng hng g Vit Nam ang pht trin tt. Nm 2007 kim ngch xut
khu g t 948 triu USD, tng gn 30% so vi nm 2006.
Nm 2008, tng kim ngch xut khu vo M l 11.8 t USD. Tc tng l 17.6% khng
cao nh nm 2007. Do cuc khng hong tin t ngy cng trm trng, ngi dn M ngy cng
ct gim chi tiu.
Trong bi cnh suy gim kinh t , mc d tng kim ngch nhp khu ca M trong nm 2008
gim i, nhng xut khu hng Vit Nam vo M, c th l hng dt may vn tng t 5.1 t
USD. Ni bt hn c vn l nhm hng giy dp, t 0.8 t USD nm 2007 ln 1.1 t USD nm
2008, tng 21%. Mt hng tiu phc hi v tng trng mnh vi tc trn 100%.
Ngoi tr mt hng c ph suy gim th cc nhm hng khc tuy c tng nhng khng cao.
Nm 2009, bt u khng hong l qu 4 nm 2007, suy thoi nng nm 2008 v chng ta
bc vo thi k i khng hong kinh t nm 2009.
Cuc khng hong kinh t M v lan nhanh ra nhiu nc trn th gii gy hu qu trm
trng cho nn kinh t ton cu v Vit Nam cng b nh hng ln. Hu ht cc mt hng ch
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
6 thng u
nm 2011
1,699,676
39,271
2,635,288
63,497
3,009,392
716,235
3,766,126
952,423
1,355,054
349,862
142,059
255,371
269,890
290,596
196,045
81,484
194,936
193,649
454,237
156,742
63,993
140,287
176,013
396,584
168,326
124,729
97,170
36,214
157,130
123,447
55,830
146,866
103,688
93,012
341,358
201,282
182,305
74,962
84,567
69,463
96,576
129,627
89,178
231,452
97,426
119,644
4,769
26,080
30,849
132,955
2,836
33,960
65,686
76,719
62,033
57,972
55,498
178,818
6,035
99,969
89,498
83,713
2,435
35,264
36,249
- 12 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ca Vit Nam t Hoa K l 1.7 t USD, tng
72% so vi nm 2006, chim 2.71% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu c nc.
nh du mc tng vt bc ca mt hng t nguyn chic, t 142, triu USD, tng
535.61% so vi nm 2006. Chim 24.5% trong tng nhp khu mt hng ny ca c nc.
Nguyn ph liu dt may, da giy tng 186%, thc n gia sc v nguyn liu tng 113%.
Phn bn cc loi tip tc gim -25%; ha cht t 37 triu USD 2006 gim xung cn 26 triu
USD; tc tng trng m -30.85%
Nm 2008, kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ca Vit Nam t Hoa K t 2.6 t USD, tng 55%
so vi 2007, chim 3.26% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ho ca c nc.
Ba mt hng c tc nhp khu tng cao l Thc n gia sc v nguyn liu tng 119%;
Bng cc loi tng 139%; St thp cc loi tng 113%.
Cc mt hng khc c tng; cn phn bn vn tip tc gim, tc tng trng m -41%.
Nm 2009, kim ngch nhp khu hng ha cao nht trong ba nm gn y t hn 3 t USD,
tng 14% so vi 2008, chim 9.17% t trng c nc.
Nhng mt hng c mc nhp khu tng t bin l Sa v sn phm sa, phn bn cc loi.
Ngoi ra cc nhm hng khc u gim. Trong gim mnh nht l nguyn ph liu dt may
v gia dy gim 47%.
Nm 2010, hu ht cc nhm hng u phc hi tc nhp khu.
Du m ng thc vt l mt hng tuy ng th 13/35 trong bng xp hng kim ngch nhp
khu hng ho ca Vit Nam t Hoa K nhng c tc tng trng vt bc.
Bn cnh l mt s mt hng nhp khu ca Vit Nam t Hoa K c tc tng trng
mnh: phng tin vn ti khc v ph tng, cao su, thc n gia sc v nguyn liu, sa v sn
phm sa
6 thng u nm 2011, hu ht cc mt hng tng trng tr li sau thi gian khng hong.
1.3 Thnh cng v thun li:
1.3.1 Thnh cng
Hp tc kinh t song phng c coi l lnh vc hp tc quan trng v ni bt nht gia
Vit Nam v Hoa K trong 15 nm qua (1995 - 2010) vi kim ngch xut nhp khu hai chiu
ln n 15 t USD vo nm 2009.
CC MC QUAN TRNG TRONG QUAN H THNG MI V U T
2001 Hoa K v Vit Nam thc thi Hip nh Thng mi Song Phng (BTA).
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Hoa K trao cho Vit Nam Quy ch Quan h Thng mi Bnh Thng (NTR)/Ti hu
quc, lm gim mc thu trung bnh i vi hng ha nhp khu t Vit Nam t khong
40% xung cn 4%.
2003 Hoa K v Vit Nam k Hip nh Song phng v Vn ti Hng khng u tin bao
gm c vn chuyn hng ha v hnh khch.
2006 Hoa K trao Quy ch Thng mi Bnh thng Vnh vin (PNTR) cho Vit Nam.
2007 Hin thc ho cam kt ca hai Chnh ph coi Hip nh Thng mi Song phng
(BTA) l bc m cho vic Vit Nam ra nhp t chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO),
Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin th 150 ca WTO vo ngy 11 thng 1 nm 2007.
Hoa K v Vit Nam k Hip nh khung v Thng mi v u t (TIFA).
2008 Hoa K v Vit Nam m phn Hip nh Bu tri m dnh cho vn chuyn hng ha
Hoa K v Vit Nam bt u i thoi v Hip nh u t Song phng (BIT).
2010 Cng vi su i tc khc, Hoa K v Vit Nam khi ng m phn hip nh t do
thng mi khu vc, Hip nh i tc Xuyn Thi Bnh Dng (TPP), nn tng tim
nng cho vic hi nhp kinh t gia cc nc trong khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng,
thc y cc li ch kinh t ca Hoa K v Vit Nam.
Hip nh khung Thng mi v u t (TIFA): c nh gi l ghi mt ct mc hp
tc song phng mi trong quan h Vit Nam Hoa K. Hai bn s thnh lp mt Hi ng hp
tc song phng m ng u hai pha c nng ln l lnh o cp B trng c nhng
quyn hn ln hn trong vic bn nhng nh hng ln, chnh sch ln, nhng sng kin hp
tc mi thc y quan h song phng cng nh bn cc bin php gii quyt vng mc trong
quan h hp tc kinh t thng mi hai bn bao gm c nhng kh khn, kin ngh ca doanh
nghip hai bn.
TPP:M c k hoch sm thit lp Hip nh i tc kinh t chin lc xuyn Thi Bnh
Dng (TPP) vi Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Brunei v Vit Nam. y cng l
mt bc t ph xy dng mi quan h gia M va chu cng nh gia hai nc. N cng
to iu kin thun li xut khu VN sang M vi nhng iu kin u i hn nu hip nh sm
c k kt
Hip nh thng mi Vit M :t khi hip nh thng mi Vit-M c k kt, VN
c hng quy ch ti hu quc, xut khu Vit Nam vo th trng Hoa K tng nhanh vi
khi lng ln cha tng c vi bt c th trng no trong lch s ngoi thng Vit Nam
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Kh khn vi cc doanh nghip Vit Nam trong tip cn vi th trng Hoa K chnh l vic
lm sao c c thng tin y , chnh xc v quy nh php l, cc h thng tiu chun k
thut vi hng ha, sn phm, mi trng, iu kin lao ng v thc hin ng cc quy nh
.
1.4.2. Kh khn
H thng lut php ca Hoa K vo loi phc tp nht th gii cn ca Vit Nam th cha
nh hnh r rng v ang cn c nhng khc bit v nhiu mt.
S chnh lch qu ln v trnh pht trin v quy m ca nn kinh t hai nc to ra
nhng thch thc khng nh i vi ta mt nc sn xut nh, trnh cng ngh thp, qun l
km, cha pht trin ng u. Mt nc c h thng th trng pht trin trn 200 nm cn
mt nc ang chuyn i sang kinh t th trng.
S bt ng ngn ng, s khc bit vn ho, s kh khn trong phng tin giao thng
lin lc cng l nhng yu t khng nh nh hng n thnh cng cho cng vic.
Cnh tranh c lit, nht l th trng m nh Hoa K, cc nc vo y t lu cn ta mi
ch bt u, cha c c s bn hng, cng tc nghin cu th trng cn nhiu hn ch , c hi
thnh cng cn nhiu mng manh cha tnh ton c ht.
2. EU
L th trng c 500 triu khch hng, vi sc mua theo u ngi khong 32700 USD/nm,
EU c xem l mt th trng ln v y hp dn i vi cc doanh nghip Vit Nam.
Tnh hnh xut nhp khu gia Vit Nam v EU
VT: 1000 USD
NM
Xut khu
Nhp khu
2007
2008
2009
2010
6 thng u nm 2011
9,096,358
10,853,004
9,378,294
11,386,215
5,653,264
5,142,400
5,445,162
6,417,515
6,124,021
3,521,298
Tng kim
ngch
14,238,758
16,298,165
15,795,809
17,510,236
9,194,562
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
2007
2008
2009
2010
Xut khu
Nhp khu
Tng kimngch
6
thng
u
nm
2011
Nm 2007
9,095,953
Giy dp cc loi
Hng dt may
Hi sn
C ph
G v sn phm g
My vi tnh v linh kin
Ti xch, v, vaili, m & d
Ht iu
Ht tiu
Sn phm gm s
Cao su
2,184,763
1,498,950
923,965
878,884
641,212
414,807
248,477
165,644
86,138
118,367
147,573
Nm 2008
10,853,00
4
2,508,276
1,703,627
1,149,207
994,310
806,351
457,024
327,620
253,368
93,857
120,921
165,608
Nm 2009
9,378,294
1,948,304
1,602,939
1,050,453
813,078
550,168
415,662
292,200
186,290
105,379
77,690
77,290
Nm 2010
11,386,21
5
2,222,741
1,856,359
1,180,715
1,054,569
915,222
525,367
418,661
251,762
168,794
138,102
38,874
6 thng u
nm 2011
5,653,264
1,526,241
928,947
625,961
502,563
451,782
226,351
262,459
125,201
84,523
76,235
15,258
- 17 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch xut khu nm 2007 t 9.1 t USD, tng 28% so vi nm 2006. Chim t
trng hn 17% trong tng kim ngch xut khu ca c nc
Nhng mt hng ch lc xut khu sang EU l Giy dp cc loi 2.1 t USD chim 24% tng
xut khu sang th trng ny; Hng dt may gn 1.5 t USD chim 16%; Hi sn 923 tru USD
chim 10%; C ph 878 triu USD chim 9.6%; G v sn phm g 641 triu USD chim 7%;
My vi tnh v linh kin 414 triu USD chim 4.5%.
Nhng mt hng khc cng t c kim ngch xut khu ng k.
Nm 2008, kim ngch xut khu nm 2008 t 10.8 t USD, tng 19% so vi nm 2007.
EU l th trng nhp khu giy dp ca Vit Nam ln th 2 trn th gii (sau Hoa K) v
c coi l th trng trng im ca Vit Nam, nm 2008 kim ngch xut khu giy dp sang
EU t 2.5 t USD, tng 15% so vi nm 2007.
Kim ngch xut khu dt may sang EU nm 2008 t 1.7 t USD, tng 13.6% so vi nm
2007.
Cc mt hng khc vn t tc tng trng kh cao. Trong ht iu tng 53%, sn
phm nha tng 33%.
Nm 2009, tng kim ngch xut khu nm 2009 t 9.3 t USD, gim 13.59% so vi nm 2008.
Cuc khng hong kinh t th gii 2009 nh hng r rt n kim ngch xut khu ca
hu ht cc mt hng nm 2009
S liu thng k trn cho thy nhng mt hng xut khu ch lc u tng trng m. C
th ni nm 2009 l nm kh khn cho cc doanh nghip xut khu vo th trng EU. Giy dp
gim 22.3%; hng dt may gim 5.91%; c ph gim 18%;
Nhng mt hng chu nh hng nng n nht bao gm sn phm t nha gim 94%; cao su
gim 53%; hng gm s gim 35%.
Trong tnh hnh suy thoi kinh t ni chung, nm 2009 cc doanh nghip xut khu cng gp
kh khn hn v th trng ny p dng cc bin php bo h.
Nm 2010, cng vi s phc hi ca kinh t ton cu cng nh kinh t khu vc chu u, d bo
xut khu hng ho ca nc ta sang EU s tip tc xu hng tng tr li. Nhng do kinh t EU
phc hi chm nn tc gia tng xut khu cn hn ch so vi cc th trng khc.
6 thng u nm 2011, khng hong ti M v cc nc chu u lm cho nn kinh t tng
trng chm, dn n tnh trng cc chnh ph chu u yu cu tht cht chi tiu lm cho tnh
hnh xut khu sang EU c du hiu chm li.
- 18 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm
Nm
Nm
Nm
6 thng u
2007
2008
2009
2010
nm 2011
5,142,400
5,445,162
6,417,515
6,124,021
3,521,298
2,542,176
2,548,210
2,226,801
2,134,224
1,203,426
298,563
147,373
78,662
176,068
83,793
62,742
362,427
183,266
96,663
208,536
85,006
62,455
489,791
196,669
48,490
162,237
130,897
71,230
556,521
211,934
52,974
172,937
84,849
67,677
218,691
145,267
26,421
78,513
46,958
36,524
16,061
32,565
116,446
125,427
67,254
127,727
66,479
124,222
24,399
142,357
73,291
111,408
32,685
107,432
104,537
72,158
58,151
137,971
87,458
85,648
68,363
63,269
48,267
45,963
38,692
- 19 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch nhp khu t EU t 5.1 t USD, chim 8.2% trong kim ngch nhp khu
c nc.
Trong my mc, thit b v ph tng l mt hng chnh c kim ngch nhp khu cao nht
t th trng ny; t 2.5 t USD. Chim 22.85% trong kim ngch nhp khu mt hng ny ca
c nc.
Dc phm t 298 triu USD, chim t trng 5.8%; sa v cc sn phm t sa t 176
triu USD chim 3.4%; vi cc loi t 124 triu USD, chim 2.4%.
Nm 2008, kim ngch nhp khu t 5.4 t USD, tng 6% so vi nm 2007.
Nhn chung cc mt hng nhp khu u tng; trong linh kin v ph tng t tng 102%,
t 32.6 triu USD; t nguyn chic cc loi tng 33%, chim 32 triu USD.
Tuy nhin Xe my nguyn chic gim 0.46% xung 62 triu USD; Vi cc loi gim 10%,
xung cn 111 triu USD.
Nm 2009, kim ngch nhp khu t 6.4 t USD, tng 17.6% so vi nm 2008.
Cc mt hng nhp khu kh cao trong nm 2009 phi k n Linh kin, ph tng t t
116 triu USD tng 257%; t nguyn chic cc loi t 58 triu USD, tng 77%. Dng nh
th trng Vit Nam i ngc li vi xu th ct gim chi tiu trn th gii.
Vi cc loi gim 35%; Nguyn ph liu dt may, da, giy gim 24%; My vi tnh, sp in
t v linh kin gim 49%.
Nm 2010, kim ngch nhp khu t 2.3 t USD.
My mc, thit b, dng c, ph tng khc t 934 triu USD, chim 40% kim ngch nhp
khu t th trng ny; Dc phm t 265 triu USD chim t trng 11%; Sn phm ho cht
t 111 triu USD chim 4.8%.
6 thng u nm 2011, din bin tnh hnh ti chnh trong nc c nhiu phc tp khin gi c
tiu dung tng cao, ngi dn ch trng tht cht chi tiu i vi cc mt hng xa x, nht l vi
cc mt hng nhp khu.
2.1.
Thun li:
EU vi 27 nc thc s l mt th trng rng ln, a dng, c nhiu trin vng cho hng
xut khu ca Vit Nam.
2.2.
2.2.1. Hn ch:
i vi ngnh giy dp:
- 20 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Kh tuyn lao ng, thiu lao ng l nguyn nhn chnh cn tr vic gia tng
ph thuc nhiu vo pha i tc EU, cha thit lp c h thng phn phi thu sn
trn th trng EU.
- 21 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nhm sn phm tm l nhm sn phm quan trng th hai sau c fillet trong c
- 22 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Tuy nhin, cuc khng hong ti chnh tan cu nm 2008 lm cho ng euro gim ga,
ng ngha vi vic hng xut khu vo EU tr nn t hn d gi bn bng la khng
i.
3. Nht Bn
Tnh hnh xut nhp khu gia Vit Nam v Nht Bn
NM
Xut khu
Nhp khu
2007
2008
2009
2010
6 thng u nm 2011
6,089,978
8,537,938
6,291,810
7,727,659
2,234,257
6,188,907
8,240,662
7,468,092
9,016,084
3,257,984
12,278,885
16,778,600
13,759,902
15,241,587
5,492,241
- 23 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Xut khu
Nhp khu
2007
2008
- 24 -
2009
2010
6 thng
u nm
2011
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
6 thng u
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
6,089,978
8,537,938
6,291,810
7,727,659
2,234,257
Sn phm dt may
690,220
820,056
954,076
981,296
426,241
Hng thu sn
755,399
830,154
760,725
768,859
41,632
662,124
727,261
639,502
725,737
263,214
1,013,038
2,177,391
480,117
252,698
123,521
269,462
375,696
380,971
389,200
183,526
G v sn phm t g
307,086
378,839
355,366
388,816
486,425
Than
133,812
305,134
145,559
215,202
127,254
Giy dp cc loi
114,750
137,576
122,474
147,461
74,215
Sn phm t cht do
127,908
193,890
193,284
205,264
142,412
Dy in, dy cp
in
Du th
My vi tnh, sn
phm in t & linh
nm 2011
kin
- 25 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Nht t 6.089 t USD, tng 16.2% so vi
nm 2006 v Nht Bn tip tc l th trng xut khu ln th 2 ca Vit Nam sau Hoa K
Hng xut khu ca Vit Nam ngy cng c chp nhn ti th trng Nht Bn nhng th
phn vn cn rt khim tn, hin mi t xp x 1% tng kim ngch nhp khu ca Nht Bn.
Trong khi , th phn ca Trung Quc l 20.5%, Thi Lan 2.94%, Malaysia 2.8%, Philippines
1.4%, Singapore 1.13%
Ch yu l nh xut khu mt hng dy in, cp in v du th tng mnh, tng 12.6% v
39.2%,. Nhng do vn v v sinh an ton thc phm nn kim ngch xut khu hng thy sn
gim mnh, gim 10.7% so vi 2006 ch t 755.4 triu USD.
Kim ngch xut khu g t 308 triu USD, tng 44.7% so vi nm 2006.
Kim ngch xut khu dt may ca Vit Nam sang Nht hin ang phc hi. Nm 2007 t
khong 609 triu USD, tng 12% so vi nm 2006, chim khong 2.8% th phn hng dt may
nhp khu ca Nht
Kim ngch xut khu nhm hng th cng m ngh ny t 121 triu USD, tng khong 20%
so vi nm 2006 (102 triu USD).
Nm 2008, vi s n lc ca cng ng doanh nghip hai nc, kim ngch thng mi hai chiu
c tn hiu tng trng tt. Tnh n nm 2008, kim ngch xut khu t xp x 8.5 t
USD, tng 40.2% so vi nm 2007.
Nht Bn tiu th du ln th 3 th gii, kim ngch nhp khu du th nm 2008 tng
115% v gi tr t 2.1 t USD.
Nht Bn l nh nhp khu sn phm g ln th 2 ca Vit Nam vi tc tng trng v
kim ngch trong nm 2008 tng kh, nh vy, xut khu sn phm g sang th trng ny dn
c hi phc. Kim ngch xut khu sn phm g ca Vit Nam vo th trng Nht Bn t
379 triu USD, tng 23.37% so vi cng k nm 2007. Nh vy, sau khi chng li trong nm
2007 th sang nm 2008, xut khu sn phm g ca Vit Nam tng ng k tr li.
Tip ni tnh trng tng trng m t cui nm 2006 v s st gim trong nm 2007 do
nhng ro cn k thut v vn an ton v sinh. Nm 2008, Nht Bn vn ln hng th 2
(vt M) v nhp khu thy sn t Vit Nam vi khi lng 134.9 nghn tn v gi tr 828.2
triu USD, tng 13.2% v khi lng v 10% v gi tr so vi nm 2007.
Nm 2009, kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Nht t 6.29 t USD, gim 26.31% so vi
nm 2008
- 26 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Hng dt may lun ng u v kim ngch xut khu hng ho sang Nht Bn trong nm
2009 t 954 triu USD, tng 16.3% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim 15.2% trong tng c cu
hng ho xut khu.
Tip theo l hng thu sn t 760.7 triu USD, gim 8.4%, chim 12.1%; dy in v
dy cp in t 639.5 triu USD, gim 12.1%, chim 10.2%...
Xut khu sn phm g ca Vit Nam vo th trng Nht Bn gim st, mc gim st
ny vn thp hn mc gim 7% ca ton ngnh. Do trong nm 2009, lng dm g ca Vit
Nam xut khu vo th trng Nht Bn gim mnh, c th l trong 11 thng nm 2009, kim
ngch xut khu dm g ca Vit Nam vo th trng ny t 70 triu USD, gim 39,7% so vi
cng k nm 2008. Trong khi th kim ngch xut khu ni tht vo th trng Nht Bn
trong 11 thng nm 2009 t 209 triu USD, tng 16% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
Mt hng c tc suy gim v kim ngch l: du th t 480 triu USD, gim 78% tc
ng n s gim mnh v kim ngch xut khu hng ho ca Vit Nam sang Nht Bn nm
2009; go t 1.7 triu USD, gim 71.6%; than t 145.6 triu USD, gim 52.3%;
Mt hng c tc tng mnh so vi cng k nm ngoi l: qu, kim loi qu v sn
phm t 41 triu USD, tng 48.7%, chim 0.7%; hng dt may tng 16.3%;
Nm 2010, nhng mt hng ch yu xut sang Nht Bn gm: dt may, dy in v dy cp
in, my mc, thit b ph tng. Tuy nhin, nu so vi nm 2009, th nm 2010 xut khu
hng ha sang th trng Nht Bn thiu vng mt hng go.
Nhn chung, hng ha ca Vit Nam xut sang th trng Nht Bn trong nm 2010 u c
kim ngch tng trng dng, ch c mt s t mt hng kim ngch gim.
6 thng u nm 2011, thin tai v khng hong ht nhn khin tnh hnh nn kinh t Nht Bn
sa st nghim trng nh hng n vic xut nhp khu vo Nht Bn.
- 27 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
6,188,907
8,240,662
7,468,092
9,016,084
1,945,393
2,445,290
2,289,461
2,584,256
1,021,104
552,969
928,787
839,376
953,909
3,124,215
681,911
1,041,692
839,368
1,021,698
5,214,421
Linh kin t
217,848
337,531
394,754
377,874
121,478
Vi cc loi
Cht do
324,173
355,057
333,711
361,623
125,142
174,350
186,720
222,248
251,012
136,254
93,911
144,430
176,049
159,122
85,362
Tng nhp
khu
My mc thit
b ph tng
My vi tnh v
linh kin
St thp cc
loi
nguyn liu
t nguyn
chic cc loi
6 thng u nm 2011
3,257,984
- 28 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn t 6.2 t USD, tng
31.6% so vi 2006, chim 9.8% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ho ca c nc.
nh du mc tng cao 130% i vi mt hng t nguyn chic, cng nh mt hng linh
kin t cng t 218 triu USD, tng 69% so vi nm 2006
Nhp khu st thp ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn tng ng k, t kim ngch hn 681 triu
USD, tng 38% so vi nm 2006
Nm 2008, kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn l cao nht trong 4 nm
gn nht, t 8.2 t USD, tng 33.1% so vi nm 2007. Trong cc mt hng c mc tng
mnh nht phi k n:
My vi tnh v linh kin tng 68%, chim 25% tng kim ngch nhp khu mt hng ny
ca Vit Nam.
Linh kin t v t nguyn chic cng c mc tng mnh trn 50%, chim t trng ln
lt l 18% v 14% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu tng mt hng.
Lun chim t trng ln nht trong tng kim ngch nhp khu t Nht Bn, my mc, thit
b, dng c, ph tng vn gi c mc tng u n, tng 26% so vi nm 2007.
Nm 2009, tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ho ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn t 7.5 t USD,
gim 9.4% so vi nm 2008. Nhn chung hu ht cc mt hng u suy gim v kim ngch
My mc, thit b, dng c, ph tng dn u mt hng v kim ngch nhp khu hng ho
ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn t 2.3 t USD, gim 6.4% so vi nm 2008, chim t trng 18%
trong tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ny ca Vit Nam
ng th hai l my vi tnh v linh kin gim 9.6% so vi nm 2008, chim t trng 21.2%
trong tng kim ngch nhp khu hng ha ny ca Vit Nam. Tng t i vi mt hng st
thp cc loi cng gim khong 19% so vi nm trc.
Ngc li, mt hng linh kin t v t nguyn chic cc loi c li tng ln lt l 17%
v 22% so vi nm 2008
Nm 2010, nhng mt hng nhp khu hng ho ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn c tc tng
trng mnh v kim ngch: cao su, sn phm t giy, kim loi thng khc, giy cc loi.
Ngc li, mt s mt hng nhp khu ca Vit Nam t Nht Bn nm 2010 c suy
gim v kim ngch: Xe my nguyn chic, g v sn phm g, phng tin vn ti khc v ph
tng, t nguyn chic cc loi, nguyn ph liu dc phm.
- 29 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
6 thng u nm 2011, so vi xut khu th tnh hnh nhp khu t Nht bn trong thi
gian ny cng khng kh quan.
3.3 Thun li
L th trng ln th 2 trn th gii ch sau M, dn s ng v c sc mua ln, cc
doanh nghip c tim nng kinh t, v tr v k thut cao trn th gii, coi trng mi quan h
kinh doanh i tc ... Nht Bn ang thc s l th trng y tim nng i vi cc doanh
nghip xut khu va Vit Nam.
Vit Nam chnh thc tr thnh thnh vin ca WTO, vi cam kt ct gim thu
nhp khu hng ha t mc bnh qun hin hnh 17,4% xung cn 13,4% trong vng 5-7 nm,
y l c hi cc DN c th tn dng nhng u i ny nhp khu ngun nguyn vt liu
v cng ngh ca Nht Bn sn xut cc sn phm c gi tr gia tng cao, hm lng cng
ngh cao phc v cho tiu dng trong nc v xut khu
Hip nh i tc kinh t ton din ASEAN Nht Bn (AJCEP) l hip nh ton
din, cha ng cc quy tc cn bn v thng mi hng ho, thng mi dch v, u t v
cc hot ng hp tc kinh t khc. Trong , quan trng nht l cc cam kt v l trnh gim
thu, tin ti loi b phn ln thu nhp khu gia cc nc ASEAN v Nht Bn. Theo k
hoch, n nm 2018, ASEAN v Nht Bn c bn tr thnh mt khu vc thng mi t do v
hng ho.
Trong nm 2009, XK hng dt may vo th trng Nht Bn tng t 23% n 25%. y l
thnh cng ln ca ngnh Dt may Vit Nam do Vit Nam v Nht Bn k hip nh
song phng t ngy 1/10/2009, thu sut ca hng dt may t Vit Nam vo Nht Bn
c ct gim. Theo , doanh nghip Vit Nam s dng nguyn liu vi c xut x t cc
nc c hip nh thng mi vi Nht Bn s c hng thu sut 0% thay v 5% n 10%
nh trc y. Thm vo , cc nh nhp khu Nht Bn nh gi cao tnh n nh, trnh
tay ngh ca cng nhn, cng nh cht lng, mu m phong ph, a dng ca hng dt may
Vit Nam
T nm 2010 c 784 dng sn phm nng sn v 64 mt hng thy sn VN bt u vo
Nht vi thu sut bng 0% khi Hip nh i tc kinh t VN - Nht Bn (JVEPA) c
trin khai ng b.
3.4 Hn ch v Kh khn
3.4.1 Hn ch
- 30 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
dng cho hng ha cng nghip. JAS (Japan Agricultural Standards) l h thng tiu
chun cht lng p dng cho nng sn, thc phm. Hng ha p ng c tiu chun
JIS, JAS s d tiu th hn trn th trng Nht bi ngi tiu dng rt tin tng cht
lng ca nhng sn phm c ng du JIS hoc JAS.
Ngi dn Nht trung thnh vi vic tiu dng hng nc mnh sn xut
- 31 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Xut khu
Nhp khu
2007
2008
2009
3,646,128
4,535,670
4,909,025
12,709,953
15,652,126
16,440,952
16,356,081
20,187,496
21,349,977
- 32 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
2010
6 thng u nm 2011
7,309,125
3,125,428
20,019,523
11,206,523
27,328,648
14,331,951
Xut khu
10,000,000
Nhpkhu
5,000,000
Tngkimngch
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
6 thng
unm
2011
Sn phm
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
3,646,128
4,535,670
4,909,025
7,309,125
3,125,428
Than
650,559
742,844
935,843
1,078,663
521,201
Cao su
838,845
1,056,988
856,713
1,078,259
536,245
Du th
309,631
603,530
462,623
710,446
356,962
119,725
273,803
287,187
442,302
256,238
G v cc sp t g
167,703
145,633
197,904
259,704
184,221
iu
104,450
160,676
177,476
219,995
126,239
Thy sn
90,093
81,096
124,857
154,272
96,325
nm 2011
- 33 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch xut khu nm 2007 t 3.6 t USD, tng 12.4% so vi cng k nm
ngoi.
Ba mt hng xut khu ch lc sang Trung Quc l cao su, than v du th
Kim ngch xut khu cao su t 839 triu USD, gim 1.5% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim
60.18% trong tng kim ngch xut khu cao su ca c nc.. Bn cnh , mt hng du th
cng gim n 25% so vi 2006.
Ngc li than li c mc tng trng gn 9.4% so vi 2006, chim t trng n 65%
tng kim ngch xut khu than ca nc ta.
Qua cho thy Trung Quc l th trng nhp khu ch lc than v cao su t Vit Nam.
Nm 2008, kim ngch xut khu nm 2008 t 4.5 t USD, tng 24.4% so vi cng k nm
ngoi. Trung Quc tr thnh th trng ng th 3 trong xut khu ca Vit Nam vi kim ngch
nm 2008 t 4.536 t USD (sau M v Nht Bn). Bun bn vi Trung Quc chim khong
14.07% tng kim ngch ngoi thng ca Vit Nam
C cu hng ha xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc gm 3 nhm hng chnh. Trong
, nguyn nhin liu v khong sn chim trung bnh 55%; nng sn, thy sn chim 15%;
hng cng nghip chim 10%.
Cao su l mt hng dn u kim ngch xut khu sang Trung Quc t 1.06 t USD, chim
t trng n 65.9% trong tng kim ngch xut khu c nc.
K n l mt hng than ng gp t trng 53.2% trong tng kim ngch xut khu than
ca Vit Nam
Nm ny cng nh du bc tng trng vt bc ca ngnh du th khi t tc tng
trng so vi 2007 l 94.92%, t 604 triu USD. Gi du th tng cao vo u nm. Nhu cu
tng vt, trong khi ngun cung khng theo kp l l do u tin y gi du tng phi m. u tu
tng trng nng Chu l Trung Quc khin ngun du m th gii b "ngn" vi tc
chng mt.
Nm 2009, tng kim ngch xut khu nm 2009 t 4.9 t USD, tng 8.2% so vi cng k nm
ngoi.
Cao su l mt hng dn u v kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc trong
thng 12/2009 nhng li ng sau than v kim ngch xut khu nm 2009: than t 935.8
triu USD, tng 26% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim 19% trong tng kim ngch xut khu
- 34 -
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
hng ho ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc; cao su t 856.7 triu USD, gim 19% so vi cng k
nm ngoi, chim 17.5% trong tng kim ngch xut khu sang Trung Quc nm 2009.
Nm 2009, mt hng sn v cc sn phm t sn cng gp phn ng k lm tng kim ngch
xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc t 506 triu USD, chim 10.3% trong tng kim
ngch xut khu.
Mt s mt hng xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc nm 2009 c tc tng trng
cao l: hng thu sn t 124.9 triu USD, tng 54% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim 2.5%
trong tng kim ngch xut khu sang Trung Quc; g v sn phm g t 197.9 triu USD, tng
35.9% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim 4%; sn phm t cht do t 15.9 triu USD, tng
30.9% so vi cng k nm ngoi, chim 0.3%...
Bn cnh l mt s mt hng xut khu sang Trung Quc nm 2009 c suy gim mnh
do nh hng ca khng hong kinh t ton cu: qu, kim loi qu v sn phm t 215.7
nghn USD, gim 99% so vi cng k nm ngoi, ti xch, v, va li, m v d t 7.4 triu
USD, gim 34% so vi cng k, sn phm gm, s t 2 triu USD, gim 28%, chim 0.04%...
Nm 2010, nhng mt hng c th mnh xut khu sang Trung Quc l: than , cao su, my vi
tnh, sn phm in t v linh kin, du th, g v sn phm g, y mc, thit b, dng c ph
tng khc.
Hu ht kim ngch xut khu cc mt hng sang Trung Quc u tng so vi nm 2009, ch
c 7 mt hng b st gim kim ngch l: Cht do nguyn liu, giy v sn phm t giy, sn
phm t cht, sn v sn phm t sn, ht iu, thu tinh v sn phm t thu tinh, qung v
khong sn khc.
Ngc li, mt hng qu, kim loi qu v sn phm li t mc tng cc mnh, tip theo
l st thp v ho cht. dy in v cp in, xng du cc loi, g v sn phm g
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Sn phm
Nm 2007
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
12,709,953
15,652,126
16,440,952
20,019,523
11,206,523
2,394,098
3,769,469
4,155,283
5,068,242
2,264,257
1,348,935
1,544,143
1,565,976
2,015,776
1,201,526
517,729
654,377
1,463,551
1.730,412
892,369
473,548
446,100
1,290,162
1,590,620
861,268
St thp cc loi
2,335,260
2,308,865
815,662
1,791,621
963,265
Phn bn cc loi
589,184
719,931
596,026
757,880
356,257
Ha cht
339,321
360,546
407,445
607,707
301,254
320,125
463,750
399,116
529,001
236,218
nm 2011
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
Nm 2007, kim ngch nhp khu t Trung Quc t 12.7 t USD, tng 71.96% so vi
nm 2006, chim 20.28% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu ca c nc. Nhp siu t
Trung Quc nm 2007 l trn 9.1 t USD, tng 109.7% so vi nm 2006, chim 65.3% so
vi tng kim ngch nhp siu c nc nm 2007.
My mc, thit b ph tng chim t trng 18.8% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu t
Trung Quc, t 2.4 t USD.
K n l mt hng st thp, t 2.34 t USD, chim 45.68% trong t trng kim
ngch nhp khu mt hng ny ca c nc.
phc v sn xut dt may, da giy xut khu, Vit Nam phi nhp khu
lng ln vi cng nh nguyn ph liu dt may, da giy t pha Trung Quc. Kim ngch
nhp khu vi t 1.3 t USD, chim 34% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu vi c nc.
i vi nguyn ph liu dt may, da giy, kim ngch t 320 triu USD, chim 21.8%
tng kim ngch nhp khu mt hng ny ca c nc.
Trung Quc ng thi cng l th trng m Vit Nam nhp khu lng phn bn
ln, chim n 58.9% kim ngch nhp khu phn bn ca c nc.
Nm 2008, Trung Quc hin ng u vi kim ngch nm 2008 l 15.625 t USD. Vit
Nam ch chim 0.78% tng kim ngch ngoi thng ca Trung Quc
Trong quan h thng mi Vit - Trung, Vit Nam vn l nc nhp siu. Con s
nhp siu t Trung Quc cng ngy cng tng . Bo co ca B Cng Thng cho thy,
nm 2008, Vit Nam nhp siu t Trung Quc 11 t USD, tng 21.7% so vi 2007,
chim 61.6% so vi tng kim ngch nhp siu c nc nm 2008
Dn u kim ngch nhp khu t Trung Quc l nhm mt hng my mc, thit b
ph tng t kim ngch 3.7 t USD, tng 57% so vi nm 2007.
K n l mt hng st thp, t kim ngch 2.3 t USD, gim nh 1.13% so vi 2007.
Kim ngch nhp khu vi tng 14.5% so vi nm 2007, chim 35% trong tng kim
ngch nhp khu vi c nc.
Kim ngch nhp khu phn bn cng nh du mc tng trng 22% so vi nm
2007, chim t trng 49% trong tng kim ngch nhp khu phn bn, gim khong 10%
so vi 2007.
Nm 2009, tng kim ngch nhp khu ca Vit Nam t Trung Quc nm 2009 t 16 t
USD, tng 5% so vi cng k nm ngoi. Nu nh nm 2006, kim ngch thng mi hai
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
(chnh ngch, bun bn qua bin gii, tm nhp ti xut, qu cnh, chuyn khu, trao i
hng ho gia c dn bin gii hai nc).
y l th trng c nhu cu a dng. Nhu cu gia cc vng min Trung Quc
khc nhau.
y l th trng ang pht trin. Hin Trung Quc ang hon thin dn th trng
trao i hng ho ti cc th, trung tm kinh t thng qua h thng ch bn bun, ch
u mi v h thng siu th, chui ca hng tin ch. Th trng nng thn Trung Quc
vi hn 700 triu ngi tiu dng ch yu vn thng qua h thng ch truyn thng v h
thng hn 2 vn ca hng Li dn do B Thng mi Trung Quc xy dng v qun l
ti cc a phng t cp x tr ln.
Cc mt hng xut khu ca Vit Nam c tim nng pht trin xut khu sang
Trung Quc
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
bnh, mt, ko ch bin t nguyn liu v hng liu tri cy nhit i nh bnh
su ring, ko da, bnh u xanh...
Hn ch
Doanh nghip Vit Nam mi ch khai thc th trng vng bin, ch cha vo su
th trng ni a.
Cch tip cn ca cc doanh nghip Vit vi th trng Trung Quc trc gi
thng b nh gi l thiu bi bn, nh l
Thiu nhy bn trong vic nm bt thng tin, chnh sch ca Trung Quc, thiu
quan tm n xy dng thng hiu... Trong khi , Nh nc li cha h tr tt cho
hot ng xut khu.
Cc c quan qun l v thng nhn Vit Nam cn b lng tng, b ng trc
nhng chnh sch bin mu ca Trung Quc. Chnh sch thng mi bin gii ca
Vit Nam cha tn dng c ti a nhng c hi u i bin mu t pha Trung Quc.
c bit, va qua Chnh Ph Trung Quc thay i chnh sch bin mu, khng cho php
xut nhp khu qua cc im thng quan ta t m (Lc Lm) gy nhiu kh khn cho
cc doanh nghip v nhn dn bin gii trong hot ng xut khu bin mu
Cc thanh ton giao dch bin mu vi doanh nghip Trung Quc vn p dng
li truyn thng l thanh ton bng ng nhn dn t qua cc ngn hng thng mi
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Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
ca Vit Nam, c chi nhnh ti Mng Ci. Trong xut khu hng Vit Nam s c li v
cc doanh nghip Vit Nam mua hng bng tin VND c hp ng tho thun thanh
ton trc cho cc c s thu mua trong nc, nay pha Trung Quc nng gi nhn dn t
th doanh nghip Vit Nam bn hng thu nhn dn t c li. Tuy nhin, li cho cc doanh
nghip Vit Nam xut khu hng sang Trung Quc qu t v pha Vit Nam ch yu xut
theo ng tiu ngch
Kinh doanh manh mn s lin kt lng lo v thiu chuyn nghip ca cc doanh
nghip Vit Nam ang l yu t lm yu i tnh cnh tranh ca hng ha khi xut sang
Trung Quc
C cu hng ha ca chng ta cn ngho nn, h tng kh khn, cc iu kin v
c s vt cht, h tng thng mi cn yu km, chnh sch php lut cha theo kp
vic xut khu hng ho sang Trung Quc ch tc. Tuyn ng quc l 18A
ang trong giai on sa cha, nng cp nn thng xuyn gy ra tc nghn; h
tng phc v xut nhp khu, im thng quan hng ho trn a bn thnh ph
xung cp
4.4.2 Kh khn
Hip nh thng mi t do gia ASEAN - Trung Quc (ACFTA)
Th trng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam v nhng gii php y mnh xut khu GVHD: GS.TS V Thanh Thu
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