BI TON SUY DIN THNG K

Suy din TK v TB mu: XN(,2), p(a < X < b) = ?

Cch 1: Theo bi ra: XN(,2)
Vi mu c n quan st, ta c X N ( ,

= X2 )

n
b
a
p (a < X < b) = 0
0

X
X

Hoc tm p X < = 20

Cch 2:
Theo bi ra: XN(,2), vi mu c n quan st, ta c
X N ( ,

2
n

= X2 ) G = U =

X ( X )
=
N (0,1)
Se( X )
X

a
b
p=(a<X<b)=p
<U<
= p [... < U < ...]

X
X
Cch 3:

Tng qut: p u < X < + u =1 (1 + 2 ) = 1

n
n

Khong i xng hay tm chnh lch:

1

p
u /2 < X < +
u /2 = 1 hoc p X <
u /2 = 1
n
n
n

Khong gi tr ti a:

p X +
u =1
n

Khong gi tr ti thiu:

p X
u =1
n

Suy din TK v phng sai mu

Khong gt 2 pha
2 2
2 2

2
p
1/ 2 (n 1) < S <
/ 2 (n 1) = 1
n 1
n 1

GT ti thiu 1=, 2=0

2 2

p S 2
1 (n 1) = 1
n 1

GT ti a 1=0, 2=
2 2
2

p S
(n 1) = 1
n 1

Suy din TK v tn sut mu

k: n >5 v

p
1 p

1 p
p

n < 0,3 hoc n 100. Khi f pp chun

Cch 1: Ging suy din trung bnh mu

Cch 2: Ging suy din trung bnh mu
Cch 3:
Khong GT i xng

p(1-p)
p(1-p)
p(1-p)
P p u < f < p +
u = 1 hoc P f p
u = 1
2
2
2
n
n
n

Khong GT ti thiu

p(1-p)
P f p
u = 1
n

Khong GT ti a

p(1-p)
P f p +
u = 1
n

Suy din TK v hiu hai trung bnh mu (t c)

Suy din TK v hiu hai tn sut mu (t c)
Suy din TK v t s hai phng sai (t c)
c lng ca X N(,2)
2 bit

2 cha bit

P X
u /2 < < X +
u /2 = 1
n
n

P X +
u = 1
n

P X
u = 1
n

S ( n 1)
S ( n 1)

P X
t /2 < < X +
t /2 = 1
n
n

S ( n 1)

P X +
t = 1
n

S ( n 1)

P X
t = 1
n

Kch thc mu n II0 hay 0:

4 2 2
2 2
n 2 u 2 hoc n 2 u 2
0
I0

Kch thc mu n II0 hay 0:

- Trc ht iu tra mt mu kch thc m2
- Kch thc mu n cn iu tra c tnh
n

4S 2 ( m 1) 2
S 2 ( m 1) 2
hay

t
n
(2 )
(t )
I 02
02 2

iu tra thm (n-m) quan st

c lng p ca X A(p)
n100

P f

f (1 f )
n

u /2 < < X +

N<100
f (1 f )
n

u /2 = 1

P ( p1 < < p2 ) = 1

Trong :


f (1 f )
P p f +
u = 1

f (1 f )
P p f
u = 1

2
2
2nf + u/2
u/2 4nf (1 f ) + u/2
p1 , p2 =
2
2(n + u/2
)

Kch thc mu n II0 hay 0:

n

4 f (1 f ) 2
f (1 f ) 2
u 2 hoc n
u 2
2
I0
02

c lng 2 ca X N(,2)
bit

cha bit

n.S*2
n.S*2
2
p 2( n ) < < 2( n ) = 1

1 2
2
2 n.S*2
p 2( n ) = 1
1

(n-1).S2
(n-1).S2
2
p 2( n1) < < 2( n1) = 1

1 2
2
2 (n-1).S2
p 2( n 1) = 1
1

2 n.S*2
p 2( n ) = 1

2 (n-1).S2
p 2( n 1) = 1

Kim nh gi thuyt v ca X N(,2)

H 0 : = 0

H1 : 0
H 0 : 0

H1 : < 0
H 0 : 0

H1 : > 0

MBB i vi H0 khi 2 bit

MBB i vi H0 khi 2 cha bit

X 0 n
W = U =
; | U |> u/2

X 0 n
W = U =
; U < u

X 0 n
W = U =
; U > u

( X 0 ) n

( n 1)
W = T =
; | T |> t/2

( X 0 ) n
W = T =
; T < t( n 1)
S

( X 0 ) n
W = T =
; T > t( n 1)
S

Kim nh so snh hai tham s 1, 2 ca X1 N(1,12), X2 N(2,22)

MBB i vi H0 khi 2 bit

H 0 : 1 = 2

H1 : 1 2

H 0 : 1 2

H1 : 1 < 2

( X1 X 2 )

W = U =
; | U |> u/2
2
2
1 2

n1 n2

( X1 X 2 )

W = U =
; U < u
2
2
1 2

n1 n2

MBB i vi H0 khi 2 cha bit

n1, n2 ln

X1 X 2

W = U =
; | U |> u/2
2
2
S1 S 2

n1 n2

X1 X 2

W = U =
; U < u
2
2
S1 S 2

n1 n2

 H 0 : 1 2

H1 : 1 > 2

( X1 X 2 )

W = U =
;
U
>
u

12 22

n1 n2

X1 X 2

W = U =
;
U
u
>

S12 S 22

n1 n2

Kim nh GT v 2 v so snh hai tham s 12, 22

MBB i vi H0 khi cha bit

MBB i vi H0 khi 1, 2 cha bit

2 (n 1) S <

H 0 : =

=
=
W

;
2
2

2 2( n 1)

H1 : 0
02
> /2

H 0 : =
S12 F < F1/ 2 (n1 1, n2 1)

2
2 W = F =
2
H1 : 1 2
F
F
n
n
(
1,
1)
>

/
2
1
2
2

H 0 : 2 02
2 (n 1) S 2 2 2( n 1)
W = =
; < 1

2
2
2
H1 : < 0

H 0 : 12 22

S12
W = F = 2 ; F < F1 (n1 1, n2 1)

2
2
H1 : 1 < 2
S2

H 0 : 2 02
2 (n 1) S 2 2 2( n 1)
W = =
; >

2
2
2
H1 : > 0

H 0 : 12 22

2
2
H1 : 1 > 2

2
0

2( n 1)
1 /2

2
1

2
2

S12
W = F = 2 ; F > F (n1 1, n2 1)
S2

Kim nh GT v P v so snh hai tham s P1, P2

MBB i vi H0

MBB i vi H0

H 0 : P = P0

( f p0 ) n

W
=
U
=
;
U
>
u

/ 2
H1 : P P0
p (1 p )

H 0 : P1 = P2

H1 : P1 P2

W = U =

f1 f 2

; U > u/2
1 1

f (1 f ) +

n1 n2

H 0 : P P0

( f p0 ) n

=
=
<

W
U
;
U
u

H1 : P < P0
p (1 p )

H 0 : P1 P2

H1 : P1 < P2

W = U =

f1 f 2

; U < u
1 1

f (1 f ) +

n1 n2

H 0 : P P0

H1 : P > P0

H 0 : P1 P2

H1 : P1 > P2

W = U =

f1 f 2

; U > u
1 1

f (1 f ) +

n1 n2

( f p0 ) n

W = U =
; U > u
p0 (1 p0 )

Bi tp
1) iu tra ngu nhin 200 sinh vin ca mt trng i hc thy c 110 sinh vin n v 90 nam.
Trong s sinh vin n, c 20 ngi i lm thm ngoi gi hc, trong s sinh vin nam c 19 ngi i
lm thm ngoi gi hc. Vi mc ngha 5% hy cho kt lun v iu nghi ng sau:
a) T l gii trong sinh vin ca trng i hc ny l nh nhau.
b) T l sinh vin nam i lm ngoi gi ln hn t l n i lm ngoi gi.
2) Trng o to li xe t TX o to c 5000 li xe cho tnh A. Kim tra ngu nhin 1500
ngi tnh A thy c 200 ngi c bng li xe t, trong c 150 ngi c bng li xe do trng
TX cp.
a) c lng s ngi c bng li xe t ca tnh A ti a vi tin cy 95%.
b) C th cho rng 15% s ngi ca tnh A c bng li xe t khng? =5%.
3) iu tra ngu nhin 100 sn phm ca mt l hng th thy c 90 chnh phm. Mt l hng iu
kin xut khu nu c t l chnh phm t t 95% tr ln.
a) Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit l hng c xut khu c khng?
b) Nu khng nh t l chnh phm ca l hng l 95%, vi xc sut 0,9 cho bit khi kim tra
mt mu 169 sn phm th c t nht bao nhiu ph phm.
4) Chiu cao thanh nin vng M l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun vi =165 cm, 2=102 cm2. Ngi
ta o ngu nhin chiu cao ca 100 thanh nin vng .
a) Xc sut chiu cao trung bnh ca 100 thanh nin s sai lch so vi chiu cao trung bnh
ca thanh nin vng M khng vt qu 2 cm l bao nhiu?
b) Kh nng chiu cao trung bnh ca s thanh nin trn vt qu 168 cm l bao nhiu?
c) Nu mun chiu cao trung bnh o c sai lch so vi chiu cao trung bnh ca tng th (ca
tt c cc thanh nin vng M) khng vt qu 1 cm vi xc sut 0,99 th phi tin hnh o chiu cao
ca bao nhiu thanh nin.
d) vi kch thc mu l 100 th lch tiu chun mu s ln hn gi tr tht ca n t nht bao
nhiu ln vi xc sut 0,05.
5) Mt l hng iu kin xut khu nu t l ph phm khng vt qu 5%. Vy nu kim tra 100
sn phm th vi t l ph phm thc t kim tra ti a l bao nhiu th c th cho php xut khu l
hng m kh nng khng mc sai lm l 95%.
6): Mc tiu hao xng/100 km ca xe A (XA) thuc Cng ty 3A l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun.
iu tra ngu nhin mc tiu hao xng/100 km ca 100 xe loi trn, ngi ta thu c bng s liu sau:
XA (lt) 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5
S xe
5
10 15 20 29 10 6
5
a) Vi xc sut 95%, mc tiu hao xng ti thiu cho 100 km l bao nhiu?
b) Trc y t l xe A tiu hao xng t nht 8 lt/100 km l 0,45. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit t
l ny c ln hn trc y khng?

7): Doanh thu (X- triu ng) ca cc ca hng bn in trong mt thng trong mt thng l bnn pp
chun. iu tra ngu nhin 144 ca hng kinh doanh mt hng trn a phng A trong thng 2,
ngi ta thu c cc s liu sau y:

144

xi = 2376;
i =1

144

(x x )
i =1

= 3575 .

a) T l cc ca hng cng loi trong ton quc c doanh thu t 20 triu ng/thng tr ln bng 42%.
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit s khc bit v t l ny ca a phng A trong thng 2 so vi ton
quc hay khng? Bit rng trong mu 144 ca hng ni trn c 58 ca hng c doanh thu t nht 20
triu/thng.
b) Hy tm khong tin cy i xng cho mc doanh thu trung bnh vi h s tin cy 95%.
c) Theo thng k, trc y phn tn () ca doanh thu/thng ca cc ca hng trn bng 5,2 triu.
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit phn tn trong thng 2 c nh hn so vi trc y khng?
d) T mu ngu nhin gm 169 ca hng kinh doanh mt hng tng t a phng B, ngi ta thu
c sai s tiu chun mu bng 5,5. Vi mc ngha 5% hy cho bit phn tn ca doanh thu A
c nh hn B hay khng? Doanh thu cc ca hng vng B cng l bin ngu nhin phn b chun.
8) Nng sut mt ging la ti vng A l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun. Ngi ta thu hoch ngu
nhin 100 khu rung, c s liu sau:
Nng sut (tn/ha) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5
S im thu hoch 8
13 22 24 15 10 8
a) Trc y nng sut trung bnh ca ging la trn bng 3,8 tn/ha, vi mc ngha 5% hy cho bit
nng sut c tng ln hay khng?
b) Vi h s tin cy 95%, tm khong tin cy cho phng sai ca nng sut.
c) Thu hoch ngu nhin 100 im vng B ngi ta tnh c nng sut trung bnh l 3,7 tn v
lch tiu chun l 0,9 tn. Vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng nng sut ging la vng A ln hn
nng sut vng B hay khng? Nng sut vng B cng l bnn pp chun.
9) T l ph phm ca mt sn phm c sn xut trn dy chuyn A l 10%.
a) Vi xc sut 0,95 hy cho bit nu kim tra 200 sn phm ca dy chuyn A th s c ti a bao
nhiu ph phm.
b) Kim tra 100 sn phm c sn xut trn dy chuyn B thy c 12 ph phm, vi mc ngha 5%
c th cho rng t l ph phm ca 2 dy chuyn l nh nhau.
10) tm hiu tnh hnh tiu th sn phm trong mt tun ti cc i l sau mt t qung co, cng
ty Y thu thp ngu nhin doanh thu bn hng 101 i l v c kt qu:
Doanh thu (triu ng) 25 26 27 28 29 30
S i l
10 18 30 22 15 6
Gi s doanh s bn ca i l l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
a) Bit rng doanh thu bn hng trung bnh ca i l trc khi c t qung co l 25,5 triu ng.
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit v hiu qu ca t qung co.
b) Thng k doanh thu trc qung co ca 101 i l c chn ngu nhin, ngi ta thu c S2=3.
Vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng doanh thu ca i l sau t qung co n nh hn cha?

11) c lng s t bc gi ca mt loi giy bc, ngi ta nh du 200 t bc gi loi ny

ri tung vo lu thng. Sau mt thi gian ngn kim tra 600 t bc gi loi ny c 15 t c
nh du. Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng s t bc gi loi ny. (S: (5134; 15799)