Sinh vin kinh t quc dn

Sa mt s bi tp chng 1
1.4
a) Gi H1 l bin c qu th 1 l trng
H2 l bin c qu th 2 l en
A l bin c qu th 2 l trng
H1 v H2 l mt nhm y cc bin c nn theo cng thc XS y c:
PA=PH1PAH1+P(H2)P(A|H2)
=aa+b a-1a+b-1+ ba+b aa+b-1 = aa+b
b) Gi B l bin c qu cui cng l trng
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng ca vic ly ra a+b qu cu l m=(a+b)!
C a cch chn qu cui cng l trng v (a+b-1)! cch ly nhng qu cn li
n=a*(a+b-1)!
Vy P(B) = m/n = a(a+b-1)!(a+b)! = aa+b
1.91
Gi Hi l bin c lc u hp c I sn phm tt ( i=0,n )
Do mi gi thit v trng thi cu thnh ban u ca hp l ng xc xut nn
P(Hi)= 1n+1
Gi A l bin c ly c sn phm tt
P(A/Hi) = i+1n+1
H0, H1,, Hn l mt nhm y cc bin c nn
Theo cng thc xc xut y :
P(A) = i=0nP(Hi)P(A|Hi)
=1n+1 ( 1n+1 + 2n+1++n+1n+1 )
=n+22(n+1)
1.27
a) V mt nm c 366 ngy khc nhau ( tnh c 29/2) nn s kt cc duy nht ng
kh nng v ngy sinh ca 3 ngi l chnh hp lp chp 3 ca 366 phn t: n =
366^3
Gi A l bin c 3 ngi c ngy sinh khac nhau
S kt cc thun li cho A l: A3663
P(A) = m/n 0.992
b) Gi B l bin c 3 ngi c ngy sinh trng nhau
=> m = 366 => P(B) = 366/(366^3) 7.510^- 6
1.28
Ta c:
9 sn phm ch v np
6 sn phm ch st vo
3 sn phm ch m ming
a. S sn phm b khuyt tt l: 9+ 6+3+6+2+4+1= 31
Tng s sn phm l 100 nn: Pa = 0.31
b. m = 6 => Pb = 0.06
c. Gi H1 l bin c sn phm b v np
H2 l bin c sn phm b st vi
C l bin c sn phm b st vi bit rng n b v np
=> C=H2/H1

=>P(C) = P(H2/H1) = 7/20 = 0.35 ( y l trng hp xc xut c iu kin )

1.32 ( cch khc)
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng 10 ngi vo 3 quy l chnh hp lp chp 10
ca 3 v = 3^10
Gi A l bin c c 3 ngi vo quy 1
=> s kt cc thun li cho A l :C103.27
Vy P(A) = C10327310
1.34
Gi Ak l bin c ngi th k bn trng mc tiu ( k=1,3 )
a) A1A2 A3 l bin c ch c ngi thc nht bn trng mc tiu
b) v c) cc bn trc lm ng
d) A1 A2 A3 l bin c c ngi bn trng mc tiu
1.43
Gi A l bin c sau khi gia cng chi tit c khuyt tt
Xc xut chi tit cng on thc i khng c khuyt tt l 1- Pi ( i=1,k )
Vy P(A) = 1- P(A ) = 1- i=1k(1-Pi)
1.44
( cch khc d hiu hn )
Sau khi ly ra k qu ri b li vo hp th cn n-k bng mi
S cch ly tip k qu bng mi l: Cn-kk
Tng s cch ly tip k qu bng l: Cnk
=> P= Cn-kkCnk
1.81
a) chia hp thnh 3 phn bng nhau, ta c : C9 3C63C33=1680 cch
Gi A l bin c c 3 qu cu trong 1 phn
=> s kt cc thun li cho A l: 3.C63C33=60
Vy P(A)= 60/1680 0.036
b) Gi B l bin c mi phn c 1 qu cu
=> s kt cc thun li cho B l: 3!.C62C42C22=540
Vy P(B)= 540/1680 0.321

Chng I: BIN C
V XC SUT CA BIN C
Bi 1.1:
a) Gi A l bin c xut hin mt su chm khi gieo con xc xc.
S kt cc ng kh nng n = 6. S kt cc thun li cho bin c A l m =1.
Vy:
P(A)= =
b) Gi B l bin c mt c s chn chm xut hin.

S kt cc thun li cho B l n = 3. Vy:

P(B) = = = 0.5
Bi 1.2:
a) Gi A l bin c ly ra tm ba c xut hin ch s 5. khi l bin c
khng xut hin ch s 5. V s kt cc ng kh nng l 100, trong khi s kt
cc thun li cho A l 19, nn s kt cc thun li cho l 81.
Vy
P ( ) = 0.81.
b) t 1 n 100 c 50 s chn nn c 50 s chia ht cho 2.
C 20 s chia ht cho 5, trong 10 s va chia ht cho 5 va chia ht cho 2.
Do vy s kt cc thun li cho bin c ly ln ba c s hoc chia ht cho 2,
hoc chia ht cho 5, hoc chia ht cho c 2 v 5 l 50 +20-10 = 60.
Vy P(A)= =0.6.

Bi 1.3:
a) A = qu cu th nht l trng
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng l tt c cc phng php ly c 1 qu
cu ra khi (a+b) qu cu. Vy n = a+b.
S kt cc thun li ly ra qu cu th nht mu trng l a.
Vy xc sut P(A) =
b) Nu qu th nht trng th chn qu th 2 s cn a+b-1 kt cc ng kh
nng.
S kt cc thun li qu th 2 mu trng l a-1
Vy xc sut P(B) =
c) tng t cu b), v qu th hai l trng nn s kt cc ng kh nng khi chn
qu th nht l a+b-1 trong khi s kt qu thun li l a-1.
Vy P(C) =
Bi 1.4.

a) S kt qu ng kh nng thc ra hon v ca a + b qu cu nn m = (a+b)!

nu qu cu th 2 l trng th s kt qu thun li cho bin c ny l chnh hp
chp a+b-1 phn t ca a+b phn t.
Vy xc sut P(A) = .
b) gi B l bin c qu cu cui cng l trng. Khi tng t cu a), ta cng c
xc sut P(B) =

Bi 1.5.
1
2
Sp (S)
Nga (N)

Sp (S)
SS
NS

Nga (N)
SN
NN

a) Da vo bng trn, c th thy s kt cc ng kh nng l 4.

S kt cc thun li cho bin c A = Hai mt cng sp xut hin l 1.
Vy P (A) = = 0,25
b) S kt cc thun li cho bin c B = Mt sp mt nga l 2.
Vy xc sut P(B) = = 0,5.
c) S kt cc thun li cho bin c C = C t nht 1 mt sp l 3.
Vy P(C) = 0,75.
Bi 1.6.
Gieo ng thi 2 con xc xc th s kt cc ng kh nng l 6.6=36.
a) c 6 kt cc thun li cho bin c A=hai mt c tng s chm bng 7 l
cc cp 1&6, 2&5, 3&4, 4&3, 5&2, 6&1 nn P(A) = =
b) B = hai mt c tng s chm nh hn 8.
Bi =hai mt c s chm nhi hn i, vi i=2,3,7 (nh nht l 2)
B2 c 1 kt cc thun li
B3 c 2 kt cc thun li
B4 c 3 kt cc thun li
B5 c 4 kt cc thun li
B6 c 5 kt cc thun li
B7 c 6 kt cc thun li
Vy s kt cc thun li ca bin c B l 21.
Nn P(B) = =
c) D = hai mt c t nht 1 mt 6 chm
khi s kt cc thun li cho D l 11.
Vy P(D) = .
Bi 1.7.

S cch tr m c th xy ra l A =6.
d) c 3 ngi cng c tr ng m th ch c 1 kt cc thun li nn
P(D)=
c) Khng th c kh nng ch c ng 2 ngi c tr ng m, v chc chn
ngi th 3 cng s ng m, nn P( C) = 0
b) s kt cc thun li c ng 1 ngi c tr ng m l 3
Vy P(B) = = 0,5.
a) xc sut c 3 ngi b tr sai m l:
P(A) = 1 - - 0,5 =
Bi 1.8.
Ta c biu tp hp nh sau:

a) S hc sinh hc t nht 1 ngoi ng trn l 50% + 10% + 15% + 5% = 80%.

Vy xc sut ca bin c ny l P(A) = 0,8.
b) S hc sinh ch hc ting Anh v ting c l 10%.
Vy P(B) = 0,1.
c) S hc sinh ch hc ting Php l 15%
Vy xc sut l P( C) = 0,15.
Bi 1.9.
S kt cc ng kh nng l chnh hp chp 3 ca 10 s t nhin, nn m = A =
720.

Ch c 1 kt cc thun li cho vic gi in ng s in thoi, vy xc sut

P=

Bi 1.10.
S kt cc ng kh nng khi thc hin php th ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm l
t hp chp 3 ca 15 phn t, vy n = C = 455
a) A = 3 chi tit ly ra t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho A l
C =120
P(A) = = 0,264
b) B = ch c 2 chi tit t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho B l C .5 =
225.
P (B) = = 0,495

Bi 1.11:
S kt qu ng kh nng: P(6) = 6!
A= Xp c ch NGHNH
Ch N c 2 cch chn
Ch H c 2 cch chn
Ch G, , N mi ch c 1 cch chn
S kt qu ng kh nng xy ra A l: m = 2.2.1.1.1 = 4
P(A) =
=
Bi 1.12
a) Mi khch u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do s kt
cc ng kh nng n = 63 =216
A = Tt c cng ra tng 4, m=1
P(A) =
b) B= Tt c cng ra 1 tng
Tt c u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do :
P(B) = 6P(A) =
=
c) C = Mi ngi ra 1 tng khc nhau
P(C) =
=
Bi 1.13
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(12) =12!
A = Cc tp c xp th t t phi sang tri hc t tri sang phi nn m = 2
P(A) =
Bi 1.14
S kh nng c th xy ra:
a) A= Ly c 3 qun t
m=
=4

= 22100

P(A) =
=
b) B= Ly c 1 qun t
P(B) =
=
=
Bi 1.15
Chia ngu nhin l hng thnh 2 phn bng nhau tc l ly ngu nhin 5 sn
phm t 10 sn phm . Do s kh nng c th xy ra l: n =
= 252
Mi phn u c s chnh phm nh nhau tc l mi phn c 3 chnh phm, 2
ph phm. Do , m =
= 120
A = Mi phn c s chnh phm nh nhau

P(A) =
=
Bi 1.16
Mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr t 0 n 10
S kh nng c th xy ra l: n = 105
a) A= C 5 ch s khc nhau
P(A) =
= 0.3024
b) B= C 5 ch s u l
mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr 1, 3, 5, 7 ,9. Do : m= 55
P(B) =
=0.03125
Bi 1.17
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(5) = 120
a) A= C ngi chnh gia
m=1.P(4) = 24
P(A) =
= 0.2
b) B= A v B ngi 2 u gh
P(B) =
= 0.1
Bi 1.18
S kh nng c th xy ra:
A= Ly c 1 qu c s hiu nh hn k v 1 qu c s hiu ln hn k
m=
P(A) =
=
bi 1.19
S kt qu ng kh nng l:n= 6n
A = Tng s chm l n+1
S kt qu thun li cho A l m=n
P(A) =
Bi 1.20
f= 0,85
n=200
k = f.n = 0,85 . 200 =170
Bi 1.21
Gi A l bin c Sinh c con trai.
Theo bi ra ta c, xc sut sinh c con trai l :

P ( A) =

Bi 22:
Ln tung
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.

45600
= 0,517
88200

Kt qu mt xut hin
2
1
5
5
6
2
3
4
5
1
3
3
5
6
4
1
4
6
2
2
3
1
4
5
5
4
4
1
6
1
1
2
5
5
6
6
3
3
4

40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

4
4
2
2
3
4
6
1
5
2
5

Mt
1 chm
2 chm
3 chm
4 chm
5 chm
6 chm

S ln xut hin
8
9
8
8
7
10

Tn sut
0,16
0,18
0,16
0,16
0,14
0,2

th cc tn sut ny s cng gn dng ng thng khi tung 1 triu ln.

Bi 1.23
Gi A l bin c sn phm chn ra l chnh phm.
Gi A1 v A2 l bin c sn phm b mt ln lt l chnh phm v ph phm.
Vy yu cu ca bi ton l tnh xc sut c iu kin P(A1/A).
Ta c A1, A2 l h y v xung khc vi nhau tng i mt.
Ta c:
a
a+b
b
P ( A2) =
a+b
P ( A1) =

Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

[P ( A1).P ( A / A1)]
P( A)
a 1
P ( A / A1) =
a + b 1
a
P ( A / A2) =
a + b 1

P ( A1 / A) =

Vi

P(A)= P(A1).P(A/A1) + P(A2).P(A/A2)

a (a 1)

a.b

= (a + b)(a + b 1) + (a + b)(a + b 1)
Vy:
P(A1/A)= (a-1)(a+b-1).

Bi 1.24
Theo bng s liu ta c, tng s nhn vin trong cng ty l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420 + 400 + 230 = 1600 ( nhn vin)
Khi ly ngu nhin mt ngi ca cng ty th
a. Xc sut c mt nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420
= 0, 61
1600

b. Xc sut c mt nam nhn vin trn 40 l :

400
= 0, 25
1600

c. Xc sut c mt n nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :

170 + 420
= 0,37
1600

Bi 1.25
Gi A l bin c 3 bng in c ly ra trong hp c 4 bng hng u
tt
S kt hp ng kh nng xy ra l s t hp chp 3 t 12 phn t. Nh
vy ta c : n = C123 = 220
S kt cc thun li cho A xy ra bng s t hp chp 3 ( bng in tt) t
8( trong 1 hp c 4 bng in b hng). Vy m= C83 = 56
Do xc sut mt hp bng n c chp nhn trong c 4 bng b
hng l :
P ( A) =

56
= 0, 254
220

Bi 1.26
Ta c n=8 kt cc kh nng l GGG, GGT, GTG, TTT, TGG, TGT, TTG.
a. Gi A l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi.
C 3 kt qu thun li cho A nn ta c :
P ( A) =

3
8

b. Gi B l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 con gi .

S kt qu thun li cho B l 4 nn ta c :
P( B) =

4 1
=
8 2

c. Gi C l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi bit rng a u lng l con

gi.
S kt qu thun li cho C l 2 nn ta c :
P (C ) =

1
4

d. Gi D l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 a con gi bit rng gia nh

c t nht 1 a con gi.
Nu gia nh c t nht 1 a con gi th s kt cc ng kh nng l 7.
S kt cc thun li cho D l 4 nn ta c :
P( D) =

4
7

Bi 1.27
Gi A l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht trng nhau
S kt cc ng kh nng l t hp chp 3 ca 30 nn ta c :
n = C303 = 4060

S kt cc c li cho bin c A l 30( v 1 thng c 30 ngy) nn ta c

P ( A) =

30
= 0, 008
4060

Gi B l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht khc nhau

Do A v B l 2 bin c i nhau nn ta c P(B) = 1 P(A) = 0.992
Bi 1.28
Phn tch t d liu bi ta c :
7 sn phm ch b v np
4 sn phm ch b v vi
1 sn phm ch b m ming
5 sn phm va b m ming va b v np
3 sn phm va b st vi va m ming
7 sn phm va b st vi va b v np
1 sn phm c tt c cc khuyt im trn
a. Gi A l bin c sn phm c khuyt tt
S sn phm b khuyt tt l : 7+4+1+5+3+7+1=28
Vy :

P ( A) =

28
= 0, 28
100

b. Gi B l bin c sn phm ch b st vi
S sn phm ch b st vi l 4. Nh vy :
P( B) =

4
= 0, 04
100

c. Gi C l bin c sn phm b st vi bit rng n v np

Gi D l bin c sn phm va b st vi va b v np
Gi E l bin c sn phm b c 3 khuyt tt
Nh vy C=D+E. Do D v E c lp vi nhau nn ta c :
P(C)= P(D) + P( E)
Vi P(D)=0,07 v P(E)= 0,01 nn ta c P(C)= 0,08
Bi 1.29
Gi A l bin c Khng c ngy no c qu 1 v tai nn lao ng
S kt cc ng kh nng l s chnh hp lp chp 6 t 92 phn t
n = B926

S kt cc thun li l s chnh hp chp 6 t 92 phn t

m = A926

Vy : P(A) =

A926
= 0,85
B926

Bi 1.30
a. C n ngi xp thnh hang ngang th s c n! cch xp
Gi A l bin c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng ngang.
Nu coi m ngi ng trng tn cnh nhau ny lag 1 ngi th ta c

(n m +1 ) ! cch xp. C m! cch xp cho m ngi trng tn .

Vy xc sut m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng l:
P ( A) =

m !(n m + 1)!
n!

b. C n ngi xp thnh vng trn s c ( n-1) cch xp.

Gi B l bin c c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp thnh vng
trn.
Nu coi m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau ny l 1 ngi th khi xp n ngi
thnh vng trn ta c (n-m)! cch xp.
S kt qu thun li cho B l m!(n-m)!
Vy ta c :
P ( B) =

m !(n m)!
(n 1)!

Bi 1.31:
Ta c 4=4+0+0=3+1+0=2+1+1=2+2+0
a.Gi M l bin c ch A nh v 3 chn v ch B nh v 1 chn
S trng hp duy nht ng kh nng:
n=3+ C23.2!.C34+3.C24.2!+C23.C24=81
P(M)=C34/81=4/81
b.Pb=C23.2!.C34=8/27
c.Pc=3/81
Bi 1.32.
Xc sut s ngi n mi quy l nh nhau v bng 1/3
Gi A l bin c c 3 ngi n quy 1
Lc Becnulli: n=10, k=3
Vy
Bi 1.33.
Gi A l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi I
B l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi II
C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III
Ta c :
a. A+B l bin c chi tit ly ra khng thuc loi III
b. AB+C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III hoc l va thuc loi I, va
thuc loi II hoc va l loi I, loi II v loi III
c.

l bin c chi tit ly ra l chi tit loi III nhng khng thuc loi I
hoc loi II hay thuc c loi I v loi II

d. AC l bin c chi tit ly ra va thuc loi I va thuc loi III

Bi 1.34.
Gi A l bin c ngi th k bn trng bia (k=1,2,3)
Ta c:
a.
l bin c ch c ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu
b.

l bin c ch c mt ngi bn trng

mc tiu

c.

l bin c ch c 2 ngi bn trng

mc tiu

d.

l bin c c ngi bn trng mc tiu

Bi 1.35.
a) A=A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10
b) A=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10
c) A=
d) A=

1
1

2
2

A7A8A9A10

5
3

6
5

A7

A9

10

Bi 1.36.
Gi A l bin c Sinh con gi
B l bin c sinh con c trng lng hn 3kg
Ta c: A+B = sinh con gi hoc con nng hn 3kg
A.B = Sinh con gi nng hn 3kg
Bi 1.37.
A l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th nht
B l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th hai
Tng A+B l bin c: cng ty thng thu t nht mt trong hai d n
Tch A.B l bin c: cng ty thng thu ng thi c hai d n
Bi 1.38.
Gi A1 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I
A2 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi II
A l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I hoc loi II th
V A1, A2 xung khc nn
Bi 1.39.

Gi A1,A2,A3 ln lt l bin c m sn phm ca nh my i qua phng kim

tra s 1,2,3 l ph phm
A l bin c sn phm nhp kho l ph phm
Ta c: P(A1)=1-0.8=0.2
P(A2)=0.1
P(A3)=0.01
V 3 phng kim tra hot ng c lp ln A1, A2, A3 l cc bin c c lp
Ta c
P(A)=P(A1.A2.A3)=P(A1).P(A2).P(A3)=0.1x0.2x0.01=0.0002
Bi 1.40.
Xc sut khi o mt i lng vt l phm sai s vt qu tiu chun cho
php l 0.4. Thc hin 3 ln o c lp. Tm xc sut sao cho c ng mt ln
o sai s vt qu tiu chun cho php.
Gii:
Gi A l bin c php o i lng vt l vt qu tiu chun cho php.
P(A) = 0,4
P( A )= 0.6
Vic thc hin cc ln o l c lp
p dng cng thc Bernoulli, xc sut A xut hin ng mt ln trong 3
php th l:

P 3 (1) = C

1
2
1
3 0.4 0.6 = 0.432

Bi 1.41:
Gi A l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu trng.
B l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu .
C l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu xanh.
S cch chn ngu nhin mi hp 1 vin bi l P=

(7 + 3 +15 ).( 10 + 6 + 9) =

cch.
Khi xc sut ly ra 2 bi cng mu t 2 hp khc nhau l:
P= P(A)+P(B)+P(C) =
Vy P =

1
1
C 31 .C10
+ C 71 .C 61 + C15
.C 91 207
=
625
625

207
625

Bi 1.42:
a. Gi A l bin c: Ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu P(A) = 0,8
Gi B l bin c: Ngi th hai bn trng mc tiu P(B) = 0,9

625

Do ch c mt ngi bn trng mc tiu. Suy ra nu A bn trng th B ko bn

trng v ngc li
Vy xc sut mt duy nht 1 ngi bn trng mc tiu l:
P 1 = P(A).P( B ) + P( A ).P(B) = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 = 0,26.
Vy P1 = 0,26
b. Gi P2 l xc sut c ngi bn trng mc tiu.
C ngi bn trng mc tiu khi hoc ngi th nht bn trng, hoc ngi th
2 bn trng, hoc c 2 cng bn trng.
P2 = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 + 0,8.0,9 = 0,98

Vy P2 = 0,98
c. Gi P3 l xc sut c 2 cng bn trt.
C 2 ngi cng bn trt khi khng c ai bn trng.
Suy ra P3= 1 P2 =1 - 0,98 = 0,02.
Vy P3=0,02
Bi 1.43:
Gi A l bin c "sau khi gia cng xong chi tit c khuyt tt "
Ai la bin c "gy ra khuyt tt cng on th i"
P(Ai)=Pi suy ra P( A ) =1 Pi (i=1,2,k)
i

A=

i =0

Ai

P(A) = 1 - P( A )= 1 - ( 1-Pi )k.

i

Bi 1.44:
Gi Ai l bin c qu bng th i l qu bng mi.
Sau khi ly k qu bng ra chi v b li hp th trong hp ch cn n-k qu bng
mi.
Ly ln lt tng qu.
Qu th nht c n cch ly nhng ch c n-k cch ly ra qu mi hay cch
khc s kt cc ng kh nng ca bin c A1 l n v s kt cc thun li l
n-k, vy P(A1) =
Ly qu th 2 th s kt cc ng kh nng l n-1 v s kt cc thun li l
n-k-1 nn P(A2) =

Tng t P(A3) =

P(Ak) =
Xc sut k qu bng ly ra chi u l mi bng tch xc sut qu th 1,
th 2, th 3, th k u l qu mi.
Hay:
P = P(A1).P(A2)P(Ak)
= . . .
=
T s bng
Mu s bng
Vy P = [(n-k)!]2 / [n!(n-2k)!]
Bi 1.45:
a) Gi Ai l bin c ln i khng thu c tn hiu th Pi = 0,6.
Bin c ngun khng nhn c thng tin l tch ca 3 bin c c lp A1, A2,
A3.
P(A) = 0,6 . 0,6 .0,6 = 0,216.
Bin c i ca A l ngun thu c thng tin c xc sut l:
Pa = 1 - P(A) = 0,784.
Vy Pa = 0,784.
b) Nu mun xc sut thu c thng tin ln 0,9 th bin c ngun khng thu
c tn hiu phi c xc sut l 0,1.
S ln phi pht l n sao cho 0,6n = 0,1 => n =log

0, 6

Vy phi pht t nht 5 ln.

Bi 1.46:
Gi xc sut bn trng ch ca ngi th nht l a.
Theo bi ra ta c:
0,2.a + 0,8.(1-a) = 0,38
0,6a = 0,42

0,1 = 4,5.

 a = 0,7

Vy xc sut bn trng ca ngi th nht l P = 0,7.

Bi 1.47:
a. Do ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v c hon li nn ta c
100 cch chn 2 sn phm.
Gi A l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln th nht l ph phm P(A) =
C 21
= 0,02
100

Gi B l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln 2 l ph phm. P(B) =

C 21
= 0,02
100

Xc sut 2 ln ly ra u c ph phm l P = 0,02 + 0,02 = 0,04

Vy P= 0,04
b. Do ly ra ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v khng hon li nn
ta c 10.9 = 90 cch chn sn phm.
Gi A l bin c: C 2 sn phm u l ph phm. Ta c C 21 .C11 = 2 cch
chn ph phm.
P(A) =

2
= 0,022
90

Vy xc sut c 2 sn phm ly ra u l ph phm l P(A) = 0,022

Bi 1.48:
Gi A1 l bin c van 1 b hng P1 = 0,1.
A2 l bin c van 2 b hng th P2= 0,2.
Bin c ni hi hot ng mt an ton l tch ca hai bin c c lp A 1 v A2
nn P = 0,1.0,2 = 0,02
Bin c ni hi hot ng an ton l P = 1 - 0,02 = 0,98.
Bi 1.49:
Gi A l bin c: Bn n vin th 6 mi trng ch.
A1 l bin c: Vin th nht bn trng ch. P(A1) = 0,2
A2 l bin c : Vin th 2 bn trng ch. P(A2) = 0,2
.....
A6 l bin c : Vin th 6 bn trng ch. P(A6) = 0,2

Theo u bi ra, bn lin tip vo mt mc tiu cho n khi vin n u tin

trng mc tiu th dng. Do bn n vin th 6 th 5 vin u phi bn
trt, vin th 6 bn trng mc tiu. Mt khc cc ln bn c lp nhau nn cc
bin c A1, A2,A3,A4,A5,A6 l cc bin c c lp. Vy xc sut bn n vin th 6
mi trng ch l:
P(A) = P( A1 ) .P( A 2 ) . P( A 3 ).P( A4 ).P( A ).P(A6)= 0,85.0,2=0,065536
5

Bi 1.50:
Gi A1 l bin c: ln th th nht khng m c ca kho
A2 l bin c: ln th th hai khng m c ca kho
A3 l bin c: ln th th ba khng m c ca kho
A4 l bin c: ln th th t m c ca kho
A l bin c: m c ca kho ln th 4
Theo u bi, th kho th ngu nhin tng cha mt, chic no c th th
khng th li. Do A1,A2,A3,A4 l bin c ph thuc.
Xt bin c A1, chm cha kha c 9 cha trong ch mt cha m c, 8
cha cn li khng m c. Ln th th nht khng m c. Vy bin c A1
c xc sut: P(A1)= 8/9.
Xt bin c A2, sau khi th ln mt, cn 8 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 7 chic khng m c. Ln th th hai khng m c. Vy bin c
A2 c xc sut: P(A2/A1)=7/8.
Tng t, xt bin c A3, sau khi th ln hai, cn 7 chic cha kha trong 1
chic m c v 6 chic khng m c. Ln th th ba khng m c. Vy
bin c A3 c xc sut: P(A3/A1A2)=6/7.
Xt bin c A4, sau khi th ln ba, cn 6 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 5 chic khng m c. Ln th th t m c. Vy bin c A 4 c
xc sut: P(A4/A1A2A3)=1/6.
Vy xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l
P(A)=P(A1).P(A2/A1).P(A3/A1A2).P(A4/A1A2A3)=8/9.7/8.6/7.1/6=1/9
Kt lun xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l 1/9.

Bi 1.51: bng cch v s ven ra, ta c hnh

15%

24%
10%

Vy xc sut chn ngu nhin 1 khch hng bit thng tin v sn phm ca
cng ty l : P=15%+10%+24%=49%
1.51.
Gi A l bin c khch hng nm c thng tin qua v tuyn truyn hnh, B
l bin c nm c thng tin qua i pht thanh. Gi C l bin c chn ngu
nhin 1 khch hng th ngi nm c thng tin v sn phm ca cng ty)
Theo bi ra ta c: P(A) = 0.25; P(B) = 0.34; P(AB) = 0.1
P(C) = P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.25 + 0.34 - 0.1 = 0.49
Bi 1.52
P(A)=1/2 , P(B)= 11/36, P(AB)= 1/6
P(A+B)= P(A)+ P(B)- P(AB)=23/36
P(AB)= 1- P(AB)= 5/6
1.53.
Gi A l bin c mch khng c in do bng hng. gi A l bin c bng
n th nht hng; A l bin c bng n th 2 hng
a. nu 2 bng n mc ni tip: mch khng c in th phi c t nht 1
bng
hng. khi l bin c khng c bng n no hng
ta c: = . => P() = P( . ) = 0.8 . 0.9 = 0.72
P(A) = 1 - P () = 0.28
b. nu 2 bng n mc song song: mch khng c in th c 2 bng n
u
hng. khi ta c: A = A A
P(A) = P(A A) = 0.1 . 0.2 = 0.02
1.54.
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm t l i th l bin c ly c ph
phm t l i, i = 1,2
a.gi A l bin c ly c 1 chnh phm
theo bi ra ta c P(A) = ; P(A) = ; P() = ; P() =
vy P(A) = P(A) P() + P() P(A) = . + . = 0.26
c. gi B l bin c ly c t nht mt chnh phm th l bin c khng
ly c chnh phm no

 P() = P()P() = . = 0.02

Vy P(B) = 1 - P() = 0.98
1.55.
Gi A l bin c ln th i ly ra 3 sn phm mi kim tra. (i = ). Gi A l
bin c sau 3 ln kim tra tt c cc sn phm u c kim tra. A = A A A
V cc bin c l ph thuc nn:
P(A) = P( A )P(A /A )P(A /A A ) = 1 . . =
1.56.
Gi A l bin c vin n th i trng ch, i =
Gi A l bin c bn n vin n c th hi vng rng khng c vin no
trt
Ta c: P(A) = P(A) = = P(A) = 0.8
P(A) = P(A)P(A)P(A) = 0.8
Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A nh hn 0.4 nn ta c bt phng trnh
sau:
0.8 < 0.4
=> lg (0.8) < lg 0.4
=> n.lg 0.8 < lg 0.4
=> n >
=> n > 4.106
Vy n 5
1.57.
Gi A l bin c tung ln th i c mt 6 chm, i = v A l bin c
trong n ln tung th c t nht 1 ln c mt 6 chm.Vy A = A .
Cc bin c A l khng xung khc v c lp ton phn vi nhau, do :
P(A) = 1 - P()
V P(A) = P(A) = P(A) == P(A) = (xc sut mi ln tung c mt 6
chm) do :
P() = P() =.= P() =
Nn ta c:
P(A) = 1 - ( )
Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A ln hn 0.5 do ta thu c bpt sau:
1 - ( ) > 0.5
=> ( ) < 0.5
=> n >
=> n > 3.802
1.58.
Coi vic bn hng mi ni ca ngi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th
c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc bn c hng, hoc
khng bn c hng. Xc sut bn c hng mi ni u bng 0.2. Vy bi
ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli
P (2) = C . 0.2 . 0.8 = 0.302
b. P (1) + P (2) + +P (10) = 1 - P (0) = 1- C . 0.2 . 0.8 = 0.8926
1.59.

Coi vic sn xut ra sn phm ca my l 1 php th th ta c 12 php th

c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc sn xut ra ph
phm hoc sn xut ra chnh phm. Xc sut my sn xut ra ph phm l
0.05. Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli ta c:
P (2) = C . 0.05 . 0.95 = 0.109
b. Gi A l bin c my sn xut ra c khng qu 2 ph phm, ta c:
P(A) =P (0) + P (1) + P (2) = C . 0.05 . 0.95 + C . 0.05 . 0.95 +
C . 0.05 . 0.95 = 0.9804
1.60.
Coi vic tr li cu hi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th c lp. Trong mi
php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc tr li ng hoc tr li sai. Xc
sut tr li ng 1 cu hi l ( v mi cu c 5 cch tr li, trong ch
c 1 cch tr li ng). Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli
Gi A l bin c ngi thi , ta c:
P(A) = P (8) + P (9) + P (10)
= C . ( ) . ( ) + C . ( ) . ( ) + C . ( ) . ( ) = 0.000078
Bi 1. 61:
Gi A l bin c c chung ku khi chy th
no ku khi chy.
Gi

Ta c P(
Ta c

l bin c khng c chung

(i= 1,4 ) ln lt l bin c chung th i khng ku khi c chy

H )=1-0, 95=0, 05 (i=

=H H H H
i

1,4

Bn bin c ny ging nh 4 php th c lp. Trong mi php th u

hoc xy ra bin c chung ku, hoc chung khng ku. Xc sut mi ln
chung khng ku l 0, 05. Vy n tha mn lc Bernoulli. Xc sut
c 4 chung u khng ku l
P( A )=P(

10

HH H H
1

.
.
4 )= C 4 0,05
4

(10,05 )

= 6, 25.

Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=0, 999994

Bi 1. 62
Gi A l bin c sn phm ly ra l tt.
Gi H1 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my I.
Gi H2 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my II.
Bin c A c th xy ra vi 1 trong hai bin c H1, H2 to thnh 1 nhm
bin c y . Do theo cng thc xc sut y
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=2/3. 0, 97+1/3. 0, 98=0, 9733

Bi 1. 63:
a. Gi A l bin c vin n trng ch
Gi H1 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi I th P(H1)=

C
C

2
1

=1/5

10

H2 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi II th P(H2)=4/5

Ta c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c I, II l 2 bin c lp thnh mt nhm
bin c y nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)= P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=1/5. 0, 9+4/5. 0, 8=0, 82
b. Gi G1 l bin c ngi th nht bn trng
G2 l bin c ngi th 2 bn trng
B l bin c c 2 ngi bn trng
Ta c P(G1)=P(G2)=0, 82 theo cu a
Ta c B=G1. G2 m 2 bin c ny c lp nn P(B)=P(G1). P(G2)=0, 82. 0,
82=0, 6724
Bi 1. 64:
Gi Hi l bin c ly dc l i (i= 1,2 )
P(H1)=P(H2)=1/2
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm:
P(A/H1)=1; P(A/H2)=4/5
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 lp thnh 1 nhm bin c
y nn theo cng thc xc sut y :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 9
Theo cng thc Bayes
P(H1/A)=

P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)

=5/9

Tng t P(H2/A)=4/9
Gi B l bin c Sn phm ly ra ln th 2 l chnh phm
B vn c th xy ra vi mt trong 2 bin c H1, H2. Do theo cng thc
xc sut y
P(B)=P(H1/A)P(B/H1A)+P(H2/A)P(B/H2A)=4/45
Bi 1. 65:
Gi A l bin c my bay ri.
Hi l bin c bn trng i pht (i= 1,3 )
Gi l bin c bn trng pht th i(i= 1,3 )
Ta c H1=G1. G 2 . G 3 + G1 . G2. G 3 + G1 . G 2 . G3 nn P(H1)=0, 33
Tng t, P(H2)=0, 41; P(H3)=0, 14
A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y nn
theo cng thc xc sut y ta c :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)=0, 36. 0, 2+0, 41.
0, 6+0, 14. 1=0, 458

Bi 1. 66
Gi A l bin c ly ra c t nht 1 chnh phm th A l bin c ly c
ton ph phm.
Gi H1 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra u thuc l 1
H2 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra thuc l 2
H3 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm th 1 sp thuc l 1, 1 sp thuc l 2.

C
C

Ta c P(H1)=

2
2
2

=1/10, P(H2)=

C
C

2
3
2

=3/10, P(H3)=

C 2 .C 3
C

=3/5

xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c trn v 3 bin c ny lp thnh 1 nhm

bin c y .
A

C
Ta c P( A /H1)=
C

C
=3/45, P( A /H2)=
C

3
2

2
2

10

10

=1/45, P( A /H3)= C . C
10

10

=0, 6
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c
P( A )=P(H1). P( A /H1)+P(H2). P( A /H2+P(H3). P( A /H3)= 37/750
Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=1-37/750 0, 951
Bi 1. 67:
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm.
H1 l bin c thnh phn ca l th nht khng thay i
H2 l bin c l th nht mt ph phm c thay th bng mt chnh
phm.
H3 l bin c l th nht mt chnh phm c thay th bng mt ph
phm.
Ta c :
Vi H1, do thnh phn ca l 1 khng i tc l t l th nht b sang l th
2 l sn phm nh th no th sn phm b tr li s nh th.
1

Do P(H1)=

C a . C c +1 + C b . C d +1
C

.
a + b C c + d +1

Vi H2, ta c l 1 lc u b ph phm, chuyn 1 ph phm sang l 2 th l

2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn 1 chnh phm sang l 1
1

P(H2)=

C b .C c
1

a +b

c +d +1

C .C

Vi H3, ta c lc u l 1 c a chnh phm, chuyn sang l 2 mt ph

phm th l 2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn sang l 1 mt ph
phm

P(H3)=

C a .C d
1

.
a + b C c + d +1

a +1

a 1

Ta c: P(A/H1)= a + b ; P(A/H2)= a + b ; P(A/H3)= a + b

Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l mt nhm bin c
y . Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
a

P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)= a + b +

bc ad

(a +b)

(c + d +1)

Bi 1. 68:
a. Gi A l bin c tm c mt ngi vim hng
H1 l bin c tm c ngi nghin thuc
H2 l bin c tm c ngi khng nghin thuc
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 l 1 nhm bin c y
nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 3. 0, 6+0, 7. 0, 4=0, 46
Khi theo cng thc Bayes:
P(H1/A)=

P ( H 1). P ( A / H 1)
P ( A)

=0, 3913

b. Gi B l bin c tm c ngi khng b vim hng th P(B)=1-P(A)=10, 46=0, 54

B vn xy ra vi 2 bin c H1, H2 nn theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P(H2/B)=

P ( H 1). P ( B / H 1)
P( B)

=0, 222

Bi 1. 69
Gi A l bin c c 2 b phn hng
H1 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 2 b hng
H2 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 3 b hng
H3 l bin c ch c b phn 2 v 3 b hng
Gi (i= 1,3 ) l bin c b phn th i b hng
Ta c H1=G1. G2. G 3 nn P(H1)=0, 056
Tng t P(H2)=0, 036; P(H3)=0, 096
Ta c A=H1+H2+H3 m 3 bin c ny xung khc tng i mt nn
P(A)=P(H1)+P(H2)+P(H3)=0, 188
Vy xc sut 2 b phn hng l 1 v 2 l
Bi 1. 70
Gi G l bin c tm c bnh nhn l k s
H1 l bin c bnh nhn tnh A.

P ( H 1)
P ( A)

=0, 298

H2 l bin c bnh nhn tnh B

H3 l bin c bnh nhn tnh C
Ta c G xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y .
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(G)= P(H1). P(G/H1)+P(H2). P(G/H2)+P(H3). P(G/H3)
=0, 25. 0, 02+0, 35. 0, 03+0, 4. 0, 035=0, 0295
1.71,
A= ch cu c mt con c trong 3 ln cu
Hi= ngi ny ngi ch th i, i = 1,2,3
A c th xy ra ng thi vi 1 trong 3 bin c v to nn mt nhm cc
bin c y . Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =

P ( H1 ).P ( A / H1 )
3

P( H ).P( A / H )
i =1

Trong :
P(H1) = P(H2) = P(H3) = 1/3
P(A/H1) = 0,6.0,42 = 0,096
P(A/H2) = 0,7.0,32 = 0,063
P(A/H3) = 0,8.0,22 = 0,032
Do , ta c:
P ( H 1 / A) =

0,096
96
=
0,5026
0,096 + 0,063 + 0,032
191

p n: 0,5026
1.72,
Xc sut ca bin c A l 0,7. iu c ngha l t s gia kt cc thun
li cho A v tng s cc kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi thc
hin php th l 0,7
1.73,
A = c mt hp no c 1 ph phm
Gi s 3 hp ny phn bit vi nhau
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp 30 sn phm vo
10
10
.C10
3 chic hp sao cho mi hp c 10 sn phm l: C3010 .C 20
Xt bin c A = c 3 ph phm u nm trong mt hp
+ Nu c 3 ph phm u nm trong hp 1.
10
10
.C10
S kt cc thun li l C 277 .C 20
+ Vi trng hp c 3 ph phm cng nm trong hp 2, hoc 3 u
chung mt kt qu nh trn
10
10
.C10
Vy, s kt cc thun li cho bin c A l: 3.C277 .C20
Do ,
P( A ) =

7
3.C 27
10
C 30

Suy ra,
P( A) = 1 P ( A ) = 1

7
3.C 27
0,91133
10
C 30

1.74,
a, A= Mi ngi khch x ng i giy ca mnh
S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!)2
(Do c N i giy, v s cch i N i giy y cho chn tri hay chn phi
ca N ngi l N!)
S kt cc thun li l: 1
Do :
P ( A) =

1
( N !) 2

b, B= Mi ngi khch x ng hai chic giy ca mt i giy no

S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!)2
S kt cc thun li l N!
Do :
P( B) =

N!
1
=
2
( N !)
N!

1.75,
A= Sn phm sn xut ra l chnh phm
B= Sn phm sn xut ra l ph phm
H1= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l chnh phm
H2= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l ph phm
Ta c:
P(A) = 0,95
P(B) = 0,05
P(H1/A) = 0,04
P(H2/B) = 0,01
a, X = Sn phm c kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc ra l ph
phm
Ta c: X = BH1
P(X) = P(B). P(H1/B) = 0,05.0,01 = 0,0005
Vy: T l sn phm b kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc t l ph phm
l 0,05%
b, Y= Sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm
Ta c: Y =AH2
P(Y) = P(A).P(H2/A) = 0,95.0,04 = 0,038
Vy: T l sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm l 3,8%
c, T l sn phm b thit b kim tra kt lun nhm l: 3,85%

1.76,
a, A= Ly c nam sinh vin
P ( A) =

400 + 800
= 0,6
2000

b, B= Ly c sinh vin hc kinh t

P( B) =

400 + 500
= 0,45
2000

c, C= Ly c hoc nam sinh vin, hoc hc kinh t

P (C ) = P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( AB ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( A). P ( B / A) = 0,6 + 0,45 0,6.

d, D= Ly c nam sinh vin v hc kinh t

D = AB
P ( D) = P ( AB ) = P ( A). P ( B / A) = 0,6.

400
= 0,85
400 + 800

400
= 0,2
400 + 800

e, E= Ly c l sinh vin kinh t khi ngi l nam sinh vin

P ( E ) = P ( B / A) =

1.77,

400
1
=
400 + 800 3

a, Trc khi m kin hng, xc sut kin hng l ca x nghip l:

P ( A) =

60
= 0.6
100

b, X= Sn phm ly ra l ph phm
H1 = Sn phm ca x nghip A
H2 = Sn phm ca x nghip B
Ta c:
P( H 1 / X ) =

P ( X / H 1 ). P( H 1 )
P( X / H 1 ). P ( H 1 ) + P ( X / H 2 ). P ( H 2 )

Trong :
P(H1) = 0,6; P(H2) = 0,4
P(X/H1) = 0,3; P(X/H2) = 0,1
Do :
P( H 1 / X ) =

0,6.0,3
9
=
0,81
0,6.0,3 + 0,4.0,1 11

c, Y = C 2 sn phm u ra ph phm
P( H 1 / Y ) =

P (Y / H 1 ). P ( H 1 )
P (Y / H 1 ).P ( H 1 ) + P (Y / H 2 ).P ( H 2 )

Gi s: L hng kim tra c 10N sn phm

C 32N
C N2
P (Y / H 1 ) = 2 ; P(Y / H 2 ) = 2
C10 N
C10 N

Do :

P( H 1 / Y ) =

C 32N
C 32N + C N2

1.78,
X= v thng xem chng trnh th thao
Y= chng thng xem chng trnh th thao
P(X) = 0,3; P(Y) = 0,5; P(Y/X) = 0,6
a,
A = C hai cng xem chng trnh th thao
A = XY
P(A) = P(X).P(Y/X) = 0,3.0,6 = 0,18
b,
B = C t nht mt ngi thng xem
B=X+Y
P(B) = P(X+Y) = P(X) + P(Y) P(XY) = 0,3 + 0,5 0,18 = 0,62
c,
C = Khng c ai thng xem
P(C) = 1-P(B) = 0,38
d,
D = Nu chng xem th v xem cng
P ( D) = P( X / Y ) =

P(Y / X ). P ( X ) 0,6.0,3
=
= 0,36
P (Y )
0,5

e,
E = Nu chng khng xem th v vn xem
P( E ) = P( X / Y ) =

P (Y / X ). P( X ) [1 P(Y / X ) ].P ( X ) (1 0,6). 0,3

=
=
= 0,24
P (Y )
1 P (Y )
1 0,5

1.79,
Hi = Bn c hng ln th i
Ta c:
P(H1) = 0,8
P(H2/H1) = 0,9; P(H3/H2) = 0,9
P ( H 2 / H 1 ) = 0,4; P ( H 3/ H 2 ) = 0,4

a, A= C 3 ln u bn c hng
P(A) = P(H1.H2.H3) = P(H1).P(H2/ H1).P(H3/ H2. H1) =
= 0,8.0,9.0,9 = 0,648
b, B = C ng 2 ln bn c hng
P( B) = P( H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 + H 1 H 2 H 3 )
= P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) + P ( H 1 ). P ( H 2 / H 1 ). P ( H 3
= 0,2.0,4.0,9 + 0,8.0,1.0,4 + 0,8.0,9.0,1 = 0,176

1.80,
E1 = Cp sinh i ng trng
E2 = Cp sinh i khc trng
P(E1) = P; P(E2) = 1- P
A = Cp sinh i c cng gii tnh

P ( E1 / A) =

P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 )
1 .P
2P
=
=
1
P ( A / E1 ).P ( E1 ) + P ( A / E2 ).P ( E2 ) 1.P + .(1 P ) P + 1 Vy:
2

Nu cp tr sinh i c cng gii tnh th xc sut chng l cp sinh i cng

gii tnh l:
2P
P +1

1.81.
3

= C9 C6 C3
a.
Gi A = Mt phn gm 3 cu
P( A) =

1
3

CCC

1
1680

b.
Gi B = Mi phn c 1 cu
Nh vy 2 cu cn li mi phn l cu xanh
1

P( B) =

C3C6 + C3 C 4 + C3C 2
3

CCC

1.82.

58
1680

a.
A= H thng phun nc b hng P( A) = 0,1
B= H thng bo ng b hng P( B) = 0,2
C= C t nht 1 h thng hot ng bnh thng
C = AB
P (C ) = P ( AB ) = 0,04

P (C ) =1 P (C ) = 0,96

b.
D= C 2 h thng hot ng bnh thng
D = A + B , A,B khng xung khc P ( D ) = P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P( AB ) = 0,26

P( D ) = 1 0,26 = 0,74

1.83.
H= Chai ru ly ra thuc loi A
A= 3 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi A
B= 1 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi B
3

P( A / H ) = C 4 .0,8 3.0,2 = 0,4096

1

P( B / H ) = C 4 .0,2.0,8 3 = 0,4096
3

P ( A / H ) = C 4 .0,2 3.0,8 = 0,0256

1

P ( B / H ) = C 4 .0,8.0,2 3 = 0.0256
1
(0,4096) 2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H )
2
P ( H / AB) =
=
= 0,996
1
1
2
2
P ( H ) P ( AB / H ) + P ( H )P ( AB / H )
(0,4096) + (0,0256)
2
2

1.84.
a.
A= 2 mu hng cng loi
A1= 2 mu hng loi A
A2= 2 mu hng loi B

6 3

= 0,18
10 10
4 7
P ( A2 ) =

= 0,28
10 10
A = A1 + A2 , A1 , A2
P ( A1 ) =

A1, A2 xung khc

P ( A) = P ( A)1 + P ( A2 ) = 0,18 + 0,28 = 0,46

1.

2.

b.
H1= Mu ly ra hp 1
H2= Mu ly ra hp 2
B= Mu ly ra thuc loi B
P(H1)=0,45
P(H2)=0,55
P(B)=P(H1)P(B/H1)+P(H2)P(B/H2)=0,45.0,4+0,55.0,7=0,565
C= Mu ly ra thuc loi A

P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,45 .0,6
=
= 0,62
P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,435
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2)
0,55 .03
P ( H 2 / A) =
=
= 0,38
P ( H 2) P ( A / H 2) + P ( H 1) P ( A / H 1)
0,435

P ( H 1 / A) =

Vy mu nhiu kh nng thuc H1 hn

1.85. ok
H1= Chic 1 ly c l ca i khng chic no hng
H2= Chic 1 ly c l ca i c mt chic hng
H3= Chic mt ly c l ca i c hai chic hng
P(H1)=.9, P(H2)=0.08,P(H3)=0.02
A= Chic mt ly ra b hng
B= Chic hai ly ra b hng
P(A)=P(H1)P(A/H1)+P(H2)(A/H2)+P(H3)P(A/H3)
=0,9.0+0,08.0,5+0,02.1=0,06
P(B)=P(H3/A)=

P ( H 3) P ( A / H 3) 0,02 1
=
=
P ( A)
0,06 3

Bi 1.86:ok
a. Gi X l bin c rt phi a b li
bin c X c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt :
H1 a rt ra ca ca hng A
H2 a rt ra ca ca hng B
P(X)=P(H1).P(X/H1)+ P(H2).P(X/H2)=0,6.0,1+0,4.0,2=0.014
b.P(H1/X)=P(H1).P(X/H1)/P(X)=0,6.0,1/0,014=0,4285
Bi 1.87:
a. Gi A l bin c 2 sn phm ly ra u xu
l bin c 2 sn phm ly ra c t nht 1 sn phm tt
B l bin c sn phm 1 ly ra l xu
Bin c B c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt:
H1: sn phm l ca my 1
H2: sn phm l ca my 2

P(B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)+ P(H2).P(B/H2)=0,01.0,4+0,02.0,6=0,016
P(H1/B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)/P(B)=o,01.0,4/0.016=0,25
P(H2/B)=P(H2).P(B/H2)/P(B)=0,75
P(A)=P(H1/B).P(A/H1B)+ P(H2/B).P(A/H2B)=0,25.0,01+0,75.0,02=0,0175
P()=1-P(A)=0,9825
b.P(B)=1-P(B)=0,984
P(H1/B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)/ P(B)=0,4.0,99/0,984=0,402
P(H2/ B)=
P(H2).P(B/H2)/ P(B)=0,598
Gi C l bin c sn phm th 2 l tt
P(C )= P(H1/B).P(C/ H1B)+
P(H2/B).P(C/ H2B)=0,402.0,99+0,598.0,98=0,98402

P(H1 B/C)= P(H1/B).P(C/ H1B)/P(C)=0,404

P(H2B/C)= P(H2B).P(C/ H2 B)/P(C)=0,596

Gi D l bin c sn phm th 3 l sn phm tt

P(D)= P(H1 B/C).P(D/ H1 BC)+ P(H2B/C).P(D/ H2BC)
=0,404.0,99+0,596.0,98=0,98404
P(H1 BC/D)= P(H1 B/C).P(D/ H1 BC)/P(D)=0,406
P(H2 BC/D)= P(H2 B/C).P(D/ H2 BC)/P(D)=0,594
Gi E l bin c sn phm th 4 cng l sn phm tt
P(E)= P(H1 BC/D).P(E/ H1 BCD) + P(H2 BC/D).P(E/ H2 BCD)
=0,406.0,99+0,594.0,98= 0,98406

Bi 1.88: ok
Gi A l bin c anh ta v nh sau 6 gi
Bin c A c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt:
H1 : i theo ng ngm
H2 : i qua cu
P(A)=P(H1).P(A/H1)+P(H2).P(A/H2)=1/3.0,25+2/3.0,3=17/60
P(H2/A)=P(H2).P(A/H2)/P(A)=0.706
Bi 89:
Gi A l bin c trong 8 sp u tin c 2 ph phm
Hi (i=1,2,3) l bin c 8sp do ngi th I lm ra
P(Hi)=1/3
P(A/H1)= P(A/H2)= C68.0,96.0,12
P(A/H3)= C68.0,86.0,22
P(A)=P(H1).P(A/H1)+ P(H2).P(A/H2)+ P(H3).P(A/H3)=0,2
P(H1/A)= P(H1).P(A/H1)/P(A)= 0,25
P(H2/A)= P(H2).P(A/H2)/P(A)=0,25
P(H3/A)= P(H3).P(A/H3)/P(A)=0,5
Gi B l bin c trong 8 sp sau c 6 chnh phm
P(B)= P(H1/A).P(B/ H1A)+ P(H2/A).P(B/ H2A)+ P(H3/A).P(B/ H3A)=0,23

Bi 90:
Gi A l bin c ly c 3 chnh phm v 1 ph phm
B l bin c ly c 2 ph phm v mt chnh phm
Hi l bin c trong 8 sp c i chnh phm
P(A)= P(H3).P(A/H3) + P(H4).P(A/H4)+ P(H5).P(A/H5)+ P(H6).P(A/H6
)+ P(H7).P(A/H7)
=1/9.(1.5/C48+ C34.4/C48+ C35.3/ C48 + C36.2/ C48+ C37.1/ C48 )
=0,2
B xy ra khi i=4,5
P(H4/A)= P(H4).P(A/H4)/P(A)=0,127
P(H5/A)= P(H5).P(A/H5)/P(A)=0.238
P(B)= P(H4/A).P(B/ H4A)+ P(H5/A).P(B/ H5A)
=0,127.C23/C34 + 0,238.C12/ C34=0,214
Bi 1.91
Gi A l bin c ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc ban u hp c i sn phm tt i = 0, n
P ( Hi ) =

i
n

P ( A \ Hi ) =

i +1
n +1

V b vo hp c n sn phm 1 sn phm ri sau ly ngu nhin ra 1

sn phm nn p dng cng thc xc sut y , ta c:
n

P ( A) = P ( Hi ) P ( A \ Hi )
i=0

n+2

Ta c P( A) = 2(n + 1)
n+2

p s: 2(n + 1)
Bi 1.92
Gi A l bin c k sn phm ly ra u l chnh phm.
Hi ln lt l bin c trong hp c i chnh phm, vi i=1,2,6.
Theo cng thc Bayes th:

P(Hi/A) =
V ta ly ngu nhin ln lt k sn phm theo phng thc c hon li nn tng
s kt cc ng kh nng xy ra ng bng s chnh hp lp chp k ca n, tc l
bng nk.
Mt khc, nu hp cha i chnh phm, th c C cch xy ra ( c C cch chn
i sn phm trong n sn phm), vi mi cch nh th, s cch ly c k
chnh phm trong s i chnh phm theo phng thc c hon li l ik.
Vy P(Hi).P(A/Hi) =
P(Hn/A) = =1.
P(A) = P(H1).P(A/H1) + P(H2).P(A/H2) ++P(Hn).P(A/Hn)
= +

+.+

=( n + 2k +

3k ++ nk) / nk

Vy, P(Hn/A) =

Bi 1.93
TH1) H1 = A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(H1) = C 12 . p(1-p) + C 22 .p2 = 2p(1-p) + p2
TH2) H2 = A thng chung cuc trong 4 vn
P(H2) = C 24 .p2(1-p)2 + C 34 .p3(1-p) + C 44 .p4
= 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p2(1-p) +p4
A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn
P(H1) > P(H2)
2p(1-p) + p2 > 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p3(1-p) + p4 ( 0<p 1 )
2(1-p) + p > 6p(1-p)2 +4p2(1-p) + p3
2

(p-1)2(p- 3 ) < 0
p 23 <0
p 1

2
> p>0
3

Vy A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn th

2
> p>0
3

Bi 1.94
Gi A l bin c sn phm th nht l ph phm
B l bin c sn phm th 2 l ph phm.
Vy bin c trong 2 sn phm mua c 1 sn phm ph phm l bin c tng
A. + .B
y l 2 nhm bin c xung khc nn xc sut tng bng tng cc xc sut
Gi H1, H2 l bin c sn phm mua thuc day chuyn s 1, s 2.
Ta tnh P(A. )trc.
P (H1) = P(H2) = 0,5
P(A) = 0,5.0,2 +0,5.0,03 = 0,025
Sau khi A xy ra th cc xc sut ca H1, H2 thay i theo cng thc Bayes
nh sau:
P(H1/A) = =
P(H2/A) = =
P( /A ) = .0,98 + .0,97 = 0,974
Vy P(A, ) = 0,025.0,0974 = 0,02435.

Tnh P( , B)

Tng t, P( ) = 0,5.0,98 + 0,5.0,97 = 0,975

P(H1/ ) = =
P(H2/ ) =

P(B/ ) = 0,02. + 0,03. =

Vy P( , B) = 0,975. = 0,02435
Vy P = 0,02435 + 0,02435 =0,0487
1.95
Co cac truong hop xay ra la:
Goi x la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 1, y la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 2.
a. co cac truong hop thoa man la:
(2,1);(2,0);(1,0)( cac truong hop nay la xung khac), xac suat nem trung cua
nguoi 1 va nguoi 2 la hoan toan doc lap.
Theo becnuli va quy tac nhan:
2
1
1
P(a)= c 2 (0.6)^2* c 2 0.7*0.3+ c 2 0.6*0.4*0,3^2+0,6^2*0,3^2=0,2268
b. tuong tu co cac cap thoa man la`
(2,2),(1,1),(0,0)
1
1
P(B)=0,6^2.0,7^2+ c 2 .0,6.0,4. c 2 .0,7.0,3+0,4^2.0,3^2=0,3924
Bi 1.96
gi s ln rt th i ngi 1 rt c qu trng.
ln 1:

P= a/(a+b)

ln 2:

P= b/(a+b). b/(a+b). a/(a+b) = [ b/(a+b)]^2 .a/(a+b)

ln 3:

P= [ b/(a+b)^4 . a/(a+b)

p l xc xut ngi th nht rt c qu trng trc

P= a/(a+b) + [b/(a+b)] ^2 . a/(a+b)

a/(a+b) +............
P= a/(a+b) . { [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2
t

[b/(a+b)]^2 = X

+ [ b/(a+b)] ^4 .
[b /(a+b)]^4...........}

ta c ( [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2

[b /(a+b)]^4...........} )

= 1 + X + X^2 + X^3 +............. = 1/(1-X)

(dy cp s nhn li v hn: co so la X < 1) =
P= a/(a+b) . 1/ (1 - X) = (a+b) / (a+2b)
Bi 1.97: Trong rp c n ch c nh s , n ngi c v vo ngi mt cch
ngu nhin. Tm xc sut c m ngi ngi ng ch.
Yu cu bi ton l tm xc sut m ngi ngi ng ch v (n- m) ngi cn
li ngi sai ch.
A= m ngi ngi ng ch.
S trng hp ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp m ngi vo n v tr l
S trng hp thun li cho bin c A l mA=

m
n

Vy P(A) =

C
A

n
m

1
m!

B= n- m ngi cn li ngi sai ch.

C= C t nht 1 ngi trong n- m ngi cn li ngi ng ch n- m v tr cn
li.
Ta c P(B)= P(C)
Ai= Ngi th i ngi ng ch. Vi i= 1, n m .
P(Ai)=

1
n m

n m

v C=

i =1

V cc bin c Ai khng xung khc vi nhau nn

P i - P ( Ai A j ) + ... + (-1)n-1P(A1A2...An-m)
P(C)=

(A)
i

C n-m ch nn

i< j

P( A ) =(n-m). n 1 m =1
i

V Ai, Aj l cc bin c c iu kin nn

1

P(AiAj)= P(Ai)P(Aj/Ai)= n m n m 1

P( A A ) = C
i< j

2
n m

1
1
1
.
=
n m n m 1 2!
1

Tng t P(A1A2...An-m)= (n m)!

1

P(C)= 1- 2! + 3! +... + (1)

n m

n m
n m
1
1
.
=
(

1
)

( n m)! i =1
( n m)!

P(B)=1-P(C) = 1-

n m

(1)
i =1

(1)
h!

n m
1
.
=
( n m)!

n m

h =0

Theo nh l nhn xc sut, v A, B c lp

P(AB)= P(A)P(B)=

1
m!

(1)
h!

n m
h =0

Bi 1.98: Mt h thng k thut gm n b phn vi xc sut hot ng tt ca

mi b phn l p. H thng s ngng hot ng khi c t nht mt b phn b
hng. nng cao tin cy ca h thng ngi ta d tr thm n b phn na
theo 2 phng thc( hnh v SBT/T37)
Hi phng thc d tr no em li tin cy cao hn cho h thng?
tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc a:
Pa = [1- (1-p)2]n = pn(2-p)n
(V: (1-p)2 l xc sut c 2 b phn cng mt nhm b hng, khi h thng b
hng)
tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc b:
Pb = 1- (1-pn)2 = pn(2-pn)
(V (1-pn)2 l xc sut m trong c hai nhnh, mi nhnh u c 1 b phn b
hng)
Ta cn chng minh: Pa>Pb hay (2-p)n > (2-pn) (2-p)n + pn > 2
t q = 1-p ta c: (1+q)n + (1-q)n >2 (ng theo khai trin nh thc Newton)
Vy: phng thc d tr a mang li tin cy cao hn cho h thng.
Bi 1.99
Hai nguoi nay choi toi da la m+n-1 van thi moi biet duoc minh thang hay thua.
Xet cac truong hop thang cho nguoi thu nhat:
Ta phan thanh cac truong hop nguoi do phai danh lan luot la :
m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1 tran moi biet minh thang( so thu tu cau van thang cuoi
cung lan luot la m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1). Cac truong hop nay lan luot xung
khac.
Ap dung becnuli
P(m)=(1/2)^m
m 1
1
P(m+1)= c m .(1/2)^(m-1).1/2.1/2=1/2. c m .(1/2)^m
2

P(m+2)= c m+1 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^2.1/2=1/2^2. c m+1 .(1/2)^m

m 1

.
m 1
n
P(m+n-1)= c m+n 2 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^(n-1).1/2=(1/2)^n. c m+n 2 .(1/2)^(n-1)
Nen xac suat nguoi thu nhat:
P(1)= (1/2)^m(1+1/2.

1
m

+1/2^2. c m+1 +.+ (1/2)^(n-1). c m+n 2 )

n

Hoan toan tuong tu cho nguoi thu 2. ti le chia tien la p(1)/p(2)

Bi 1.100: Mt ngi b 2 bao dim vo ti, mi bao c n que dim. Mi khi

ht thuc ngi rt ngu nhin mt bao v nh mt que. Tm xc sut
khi ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim th bao kia cn li ng r que dim.
Ngi pht hin mt bao ht v bao cn li r que dim nn ngi
ly dim 2n-r+1 ln ( v 1 ln l pht hin 1 bao ht nn ko ly c dim!)
S cc trng hp ng kh nng l : 22n-r+1 (v c 2 bao nn mi ln rt dim c
2 kh nng)
c 1 bao cn li r que dim nn trong 2n-r+1 ln ly dim phi c r ln khng
ly phi bao . S trng hp r ln ly ko vo bao : C 2rn r +1
Vy xc sut khi ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim v bao kia cn li
ng r que dim l :
C 2rn r +1
P = 2 n r +1
2