K 2: Thc trng n cng ti Vit Nam Viettinnhanh - Sau khng hong ti chnh ton cu (2008), n cng v khng hong

n cng hin nay khng ch l ni lo lng ca chnh ph m cn l s quan tm ca c cng ng.

Lm bn v vn n cng ca Vit Nam

Zimbabwe - quc gia c t l lm pht khng khip nht hin nay cng chnh l nc c t l n cng trn GDP cao nht th gii. Mi lin kt gia cc thnh vin trong EU ang b e e da bi khng hong n cng. Thng 4/2011, ni cc ca Chnh ph M bt ng v n cng.

Ti Vit Nam, theo World Factbook ca CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), t l n cng so vi GDP nm 2009 l 52,30% v Vit Nam hin ang xp th 44 trong 129 quc gia v n cng. Theo cng b ca Tp ch Kinh t The Economist, t l n cng nm 2010 ca Vit Nam l 50,935 t USD (tng ng 51,6% GDP). Mc d t l n ny vn nm trong tm kim sot (di 50%/GDP) nhng n qu cao so vi mc ph bin cc nn kinh t ang pht trin (t 30-40%) v vi thc trng n cng ca mt s nn kinh t mi ni

nh Trung Quc (17,4%), Indonesia (26,5%). Ngoi ra, cng theo The Economist, mc n cng tnh trn u ngi ca Vit Nam nm 2010 l 580,91 USD. Nu so snh vi 713,6 USD (Trung Quc), 743 USD (Indonesia), 4.184 USD (Malaysia), 1.071 USD (Philippines), 2.064 USD (Thi Lan) th y l con s khng cao. Tuy nhin, nu so mc n cng bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam vo nm 2001 xp x 112 USD; th trong vng 10 nm, con s ny tng gp 5 ln. Vi thc trng t l tit kim ni a khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi mi nm khong 42% GDP ti Vit Nam hin nay, th chc chn con s ny s tip tc gia tng trong nhng nm ti. Trong c cu n cng Vit Nam, n nc ngoi c vai tr quan trng v chim t trng cao nht. Nm 2010, trong 56,6% GDP n cng c 42,2% GDP l n nc ngoi (biu 2). Mc d n cng khc vi n nc ngoi, nhng hin nay Vit Nam, thng tin chi tit v n cng cha y ; do vy, cc nh kinh t thng s dng ch s n nc ngoi hnh dung quy m v mc nghim trng ca n cng ca quc gia.

C cu n cng ca Vit Nam. (Ngun: B Ti chnh). Ngun cung cp n nc ngoi ch yu ca Vit Nam l cc khon vay ODA. Theo danh mc n cng nm 2009 ca B Ti chnh (BTC), 60,3% n cng l ODA v 29,8% c ti tr t tri phiu trong nc. Cc iu khon u i ca ODA gip Vit Nam gim bt c p lc n cng; tuy nhin, t trng n nc ngoi cao tng nguy c ri ro v c cu n trong tng lai. Kinh

nghim t cc cuc khng hong n trong lch s cho thy, khi t trng n nc ngoi qu cao, Chnh ph mt i tnh ch ng khi ng ph vi cc bin ng kinh t th gii v kh kim sot cc mn n vay ph thuc vo t gi hi oi v tm l ca nh u t quc t. Khng hong n Argentina (2001) v s bt n ca Hy Lp hin nay l minh chng in hnh cho tc ng tiu cc ca ngun n cng t nc ngoi. Trng hp ngc li l Nht, mc d c mc n cng trn GDP cao nhng Nht Bn vn c nh gi l bn vng do n cng ch yu c ti tr t cc nh u t trong nc. Cc khon vay nc ngoi ca Vit Nam a s u c li sut thp, trong ch yu l mc 1% - 2,99%. Tuy nhin so vi cc nm trc, nm 2010, cc khon vay ca Vit Nam c li sut cao hn v khon vay vi li sut th ni ang ngy cng tng ln, gy thm p lc n cho Chnh ph. Trong 25,097 t USD tng n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph, c 19,313 t USD c li sut t 1 - 2,99%; trn 1,678 t USD chu li sut t 3 - 5,99% (tng 176 triu USD so vi 2009) v c ti 1,888 t USD mc li sut 6- 10%, tng hn gp i so vi 2009. Ngoi ra, cc khon vay vi li sut th ni cng tng 6,66 triu USD so vi 2009. Theo Cc Qun l n v Ti chnh i ngoi, li sut trung bnh n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph tng t 1,54%/nm vo nm 2006 ln 1,9%/nm trong nm 2009 v nm 2010 t ti 2,1%/nm. Vi thc trng ny, r rng chi ph tr li ang tr thnh gnh nng ngy cng gia tng ca Chnh ph. N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam kh a dng v c cu tin vay. Trn l thuyt, iu ny c cho l c th hn ch ri ro v t gi, gim p lc ln ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph. Tuy nhin, trn thc t c cu ny cng tim n nhng ri ro khi c bin ng trn th trng ti chnh th gii. T trng cao ca cc khon vay bng USD (22,95%) v JPY (38,25%) (biu 3) gy nguy c gia tng khon chi gc v li khi t gi USD/VND lun c xu hng tng; v JPY ang ln gi so vi USD. Nh vy, mc d mc n cng so vi GDP ca Vit Nam vn c nh gi l an ton nhng c cu n cng ang n cha nhiu ri ro; do vy, trong tnh trng lm pht ton cu ang gia tng, nguy c bng n mt cuc chin v tin t trn th gii th qun l n cng th no cho hiu qu l vn ng quan tm hng u ti Vit Nam hin nay. Theo Lut Qun l n cng Vit Nam 2009, n cng bao gm n Chnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a phng. Vi cch tnh ny, n Chnh ph chim t trng ln trong tng n cng ca Vit Nam. T l n cng nm 2009 Vit Nam l 52,6%/GDP, n Chnh ph l 41,9%, n Chnh ph bo lnh l 9,8%, n chnh quyn a phng l 0,8%. Con s tng t ca nm 2010 ln lt l 56,6%, 44,3%, 11,36% v 0,94%.

Mc d nhiu kin cho rng n Chnh ph vn nm trong ngng an ton (di 50% GDP) v ngha v tr n Chnh ph so vi thu ngn sch Nh nc vn nm trong gii hn cho php (15,8%/thu ngn sch Nh nc so vi quy nh 30% theo thng l quc t), tuy nhin xu hng gia tng n cng qua cc nm cng th hin mt s bt n cn lu . l kin ca TS L Xun Ngha Ph ch tch, y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia ti Hi tho T chc kim ton i vi vic qun l v s dng cc khon n cng do Kim ton Nh nc t chc ngy 10/12. Tnh n 31/12/2009, n cng chim 52,6% GDP, trong n Chnh ph chim 41,9% GDP, xp x 39 t USD. D tnh n cui nm 2010 n Chnh ph s chim 44,6% GDP, do iu chnh tng bi chi ngn sch ln trn 5% GDP (nm 2009 l 6,9% GDP v nm 2010 l 6,2% GDP). Cng theo ng Ngha, vic xc nh ngng an ton ch l khi nim tng i, mng nng tnh thng k. Cn trong thc t, vic n cng ca cc quc gia c thc s trong ngng an ton cn phi xem xt trn nhiu kha cnh nh tc tng trng, tnh bn vng trong pht trin, kh nng chng ri ro, khong hong, bin ng bt ng). Theo ng, i vi n cng Vit Nam s c nhng ri ro tim n sau: Th nht, n nc ngoi cao (chim 58,8% trong n Chnh ph) trong phn ln cc khon n nc ngoi l vay ODA (85%) ngoi vic lm tng chi ph u vo ca khon vay th lm tng nguy c ri ro v c cu n, cha k cc khon vay ODA ny s gim dn trong tng lai. Th hai, p lc chi ph ngn sch ln dn n thm ht ngn sch c trong v ngoi d ton ngy cng gia tng (t 2,8% GDP nm 2001 ln ti 9% GDP nm 2009) vt qua mc 5% theo thng l quc t cng gy p lc ln chnh sch ti kha v ngha v tr n trong tng lai. Th ba, ch s ICOR o lng hiu qu u t cng cao th hiu qu du t ca nn kinh t cng thp. H s ICOR nm 1991 l 3,2 tng ln 8 vo nm 2009 cho thy hiu qu thp trong vic s dng ngun lc, s lng ph v qun l cha cht ch trong u t cng nh kh nng cnh tranh thp ca nn kinh t. Th t, n cng c th gia tng nhanh chng v t bin trong thi gian ngn nu mt s cc tp on kinh t b, mt kh nng thanh ton v chnh ph phi vay n ti tr cho cc tp on ny nhm ti c cu ti chnh. ng Ngha dn chng ti vic ti c cu tp on Vinashin. Th nm, tnh trng bong bong bt ng sn, n xu, ri ro li sut v hi oi cng nh hng n nn tng ti chnh v thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng. Trong trng hp cc ngn hng thng mi gp kh khn v thanh

khon cn c ti tr t ngn sch cng c th lm bi chi v n cng tng t ngt. ng quan im vi ng Ngha, TS L Sa - Trung tm Chu - Thi Bnh Dng H Ni nhn nh: N cng Vit Nam c kh nhiu vn ng lo ngi. V th, tin vay phi c qun l cht ch theo cc nguyn tc ca Lut qun l n cng mt cch cng khai, minh bch v c l trnh tr n. Nh vy, n cng mi c th phc v cho vic pht trin t nc. Nu khng, s dn ti tnh trng n nn chng cht v th h mai sau phi gnh trch nhim tr n. N cng Vit Nam ang tng nhanh trong khi thm ht ngn sch tr thnh cn bnh "kinh nin", u t khng ngng m rng ko theo lm pht v li sut tng cao khin cho vic ti tr n cng ngy cng tr nn t . "Hiu qu s dng cc khon vay l mt vn rt quan trng v t mi bo m c dng tin tr n trong tng lai. Hin nay, Vit Nam dng nh mi ch trng n kha cnh gii ngn cho cc khon vay, bn cho c tri phiu, thu tin v c xem l thnh cng. Cn theo nhiu nh gi, cc khon u t ca Nh nc vn b coi l dn tri, chm tin , tht thot, lng ph ln vn nh nc nhng hiu qu u t thu c thp, nhng cn bnh kinh nin ca cc d n u t cng khng gim st m cn c chiu hng tng mnh - Tin s L Sa bnh lun. Kim ton Nh nc vi t cch l c quan chuyn mn v lnh vc kim tra ti chnh nh nc do Quc hi thnh lp, thc hin kim tra vic qun l, s dng ngn sch, tin v ti sn nh nc i vi mi c quan, t chc qun l, s dng ngn sch. V vy, vic kim tra ca kim ton Nh nc i vi vic qun l v s dng cc khon n cng l cn thit, m bo tnh minh bch trong qun l v s dng cc khon n cng cng nh tnh bn vng ca ngn sch nh nc. N cng , ang v s l vn ca nn kinh t ton cu ni chung v ca nn kinh t VIt Nam ni ring. Nhng cng l mt c hi minh bch cc chi tiu v n nn ca Chnh ph, khng th tnh trng n cng khng ai bit r nh trc c na. T , to lng tin ca ngi dn i vi chnh ph, to ng lc cho qu trnh pht trin ca t nc.

NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02 PHN 2: THC TRNG N CNG TI VIT NAM GIAI ON 2008-20102. 1. Tnh hnh n cng th gii Kinh t th gii va tri qua cn bo khng hong d di nht k t saucuc i suy thoi 1929-1933 v ang cht vt hi phc. Th nhng, s hi phchin nay ca kinh t th gii rt mong manh, bp bnh v khng loi tr khnng c th b

suy thoi tr li bi nhiu nguyn nhn, trong tnh trng n cng trn lan nhiu nc l mt nguyn nhn quan trng.T r o n g n h n g n m g n y , s q u a n t m c a t h g i i a n g v o H y Lp, ni m ni n ang ln lng nc ny. N y nn kinh t nc nyvo nguy c sp vi tng s n cng ln ti 300 t Euro (chim 124% GDPnm 2009) v mc thm ht ngn sch hai con s, trong khi tng trng kinh ttip tc m. Hin nay, Hy Lp l nc c mc n cng thuc loi nhiu nht tichu u so vi quy m nn kinh t v c v nh mt ngi bnh ang trongthi k nguy kch. Mc tn nhim ti chnh ca nc ny b tt xunghng BBB-. iu ny ng ngha vi kh nng i vay tin t bn ngoi tr nnkh khn. Nu khng tr c, Hy Lp s tr thnh nc b v n, cc ch n stm cch sit n, v nh vy, nn kinh t nc ny s ri vo khng hong khim cc nh u t tm cch tho chy khi Hy Lp. Tnh trng n cng chngcht khng ch l hin tng n l din ra Hy Lp hay Bng o v u-baign y, m tr thnh hin tng kh ph bin trn th gii. Khng ring ccnc ang pht trin mi i vay, m c nhng nc pht trin giu c cng mcn.Hin nay, M l con n ln thuc loi hng u th gii vi tng s n ln ti 13.000 t USD, chim khong 93% GDP. Mc thm ht ngn sch caM nm 2010 d kin l 9,9%. iu ny bo hiu ni n ca M s tng ln timc xp x 100% GDP vo cui nm nay.K c Nht Bn, tng c thi ngi ta tng c th s mua ht ncM , v y m b y g i c n g t r t h n h m t c o n n c b v i m c n t n g ng vi 227% GDP v thm ht ngn sch d kin 10,2 % nm 2010.Ri n Trung Quc, nc hin c coi l ch n nc ngoi ln caM v nhiu nc khc vi ngun d tr quc gia trn 2000 t USD, song cngk h n g p h i l k h n g m c n . T h e o G i o s V i c t o r S h i h t t r n g i h c Northwestern ca M, cc chnh quyn a p h n g c a T r u n g Q u c v a y mn tng cng trn 11 nghn t nhn dn t (tng ng vi 1,68 nghn tUSD) t nm 2004 cho ti cui nm 2009 v Trung Quc c th s phi i mtvi thm ht ngn sch khng l, chim hn 10% GDP trong nm 2010.n , mt nn kinh t ln ang ln chu cng ang i mt vitnh trng n cng nng n. T l n so vi GDP nm 2009 ln ti 88,9% vmc thm ht ngn sch nm 2010 d kin l 6,8%. Hin n b xp hng tndng quc gia BBB- ging nh Hy Lp.T r o n g l i n m i n h c h u u ( E U ) , h u ht cc nc u ang trong tnhtrng n nn. Ngay c c, nn k i n h t m n h n h t c h u u , c n g m m n h trong n vi mc 84,5% GDP. N cng ca Php cui nm 2009 ln xp x1500 t Euro, tng ng vi 82,6 % GDP, mc thm ht ngn sch 7,6 % v d kin cn tip tc vi mc 7,1% nm 2010. Tnh hnh ca Italy li cn ng bun hn vi mc n cng ln ti 120 % GDP nm 2009 v d kin thm htn g n s c h 5 , 6 % n m 2 0 1 0 , t r o n g k h i t n g t r n g k i n h t t i p t c k h k h n (-2,3%). Mt s nc nh Ty Ban Nha, B o Nha, Bng o, Ai-xl e n cng ang lm tnh cnh n nn bi t. Cc nc ny u c t l n gn ngang,t h m c h c n c c n l n h n G D P v t h m h t n g n s c h v t x a m c q u y nh (3%) ca EU, trong khi trin vng tng trng kinh t rt m m.

Trnghp Ty Ban Nha rt ng lo ngi v nhiu chuyn gia cnh bo rng Ty Ban N h a c t h s i t h e o c o n n g c a H y L p , b i v i n g n s c h b t h m h t ngang mc 11,4% GDP, tng n cng v t tng ng 300% GDP - nhngcon s ny trm trng hn ca Hy Lp rt nhiu. Trong khi , tht nghip caTy Ban Nha cng rt cao, ti 20% (4,5 triu ngi) v nht l h thng ngnhng rt mong manh.Tnh trng n gia tng n mc khng th chp nhn c nhiu ncnh vy bo hiu mt trin vng khng my sng sa ca kinh t th gii. Mts kin cho rng, khng loi tr kh nng khng hong n xy ra ti mt trongs mt xch xung yu nht hin nay s dn n mt cuc suy thoi kinh t mic th lan rng.C th gii ang chm trong cn lc xoy n cng. Tt c cc nn kinht l n m n h t r n t h g i i n h M , N h t B n , c , T r u n g Q u c ; t c h u M , chu u ti chu u ang i u vi bi ton n cng v Vit Nam cngk h n g n m n g o i v n g x o y . T r o n g s u t n h n g n m g n y , g i a i o n 2008-2010 n cng ca Vit Nam cng ang tng dn.Vy thc trng n cng Vit Nam hin nay liu c an ton? 2.2. Thc trng Vit Nam giai on 2008-2010 2.2.1. Quy m n cng Chn ng t cuc khng hong n cng Hy Lp ang c nguy c lanrng sang mt s quc gia EU khc khin cc nc, nht l nhng nc c n cng ln v thm ht ngn sch kinh nin, phi nh gi li tnh trng ti khaca mnh. Ti Vit Nam, tnh trng n cng lin tc tng lm cho yu cu nngc a o c h t l n g q u n l n c n g c a V i t N a m c n g t r n n c p t h i t . T h e o World Factbook n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2008 l khong 38% GDP, nhngn nm 2009 tng nhanh ln mc 52,3% GDP. Cn theo B Ti chnh th n cng ti Vit Nam nm 2009 ch mc 39% GDP. V trong nm 2010 th n cng ln ti 56,7% GDP.y ban Php lut Quc hi cng b khon n cng ti Vit Nam vok h o n g 4 2 % G D P . T r o n g k h i , y b a n T h n g v Q u c h i l i a ra ktlun rng n Chnh ph ang tng cao: t 33,8% GDP nm 2 0 0 7 l n 3 6 , 2 % GDP nm 2008, 41,9% nm 2009 v ln 44,6% nm 2010, km theo l licnh bo n Chnh ph tng st mc trn cho php.Vi cch tnh n cng ca T chc Thng mi v Pht trin Lin hpquc (UNCTAD) c nhiu nc trn th gii s dng th n cng cn baogm c n ca doanh nghip nh nc theo c ch t vay t tr, n ca cng tyc phn tng ng vi t l phn vn gp ca Nh nc, qu bo him x him Nh nc s dng mua tri phiu hay u t vo cc cng trnh kinh ttrng im quc gia. M theo vy th n cngca Vit Nam phi ln ti trn 72% GDP, bi n ht nm 2008, tng d n ca cc tp on, tng cng ty nhn c l 20% GDP, cha k l nhngcon s thng k cha y , r rng. Minh chng in hnh l trng hp Vinashin c tng s d n thc t lnti 120.000 t ng ch khng phi 86.000 t nh bo co. Theo s liu caTp ch kinh t The Economist th tng n cng ca Vit Nam hin l 50,935 tUSD, tng ng 51,6% GDP. Nh vy l ch ring vic tnh ton n cng cng gy ra nhng btcp. iu cho thy s thiu thng nht trong nh gi, thng k v thiu chtch, lin kt gia cc c quan qun l vn ny. Tuy mi con s phn nh

mtci nhn khc nhau v mt vn c xem l sc khe ca mt nn kinh tnhng n u cho thy rng quy m n cng ti Vit Nam ang ngy cng ln. Biu 1: N cng v cn cn ngn sch ca Vit Nam (2007-2010)(s liu 2010 l c tnh) N cng ca Vit Nam tng nhanh trong bi cnh thm ht ngn sch(c trong v ngoi d ton) tng t -7.3% GDP nm 2007 ln ti 9,6% GDP nm2009 (theo EIU), trong khi thm ht ngn sch tr thnh kinh nin, u t likhng ngng m rng ko theo lm pht v li sut cao khin cho vic ti tr n cng ngy cng tr nn t . Mc thm ht vt xa ngng bo ng 5% theo thng l quc t, khin tnh bn vng ca n cng cng b gim st.Trong khi , vi nhu cu tip tc u t pht trin, chc chn n cng caVit Nam s cn tng trong nhiu nm ti. C th l, vi t l tit kim ni ach khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi mi nm khong 42%GDP th Chnh ph s phi tip tc i vay rt nhiu (bn cnh vn u t ncngoi b p khon thiu ht u t). iu ny vi phm mt nguyn tc c bnca qun l n cng bn vng, l n cng ngy hm nay phi c ti tr bng thng d ngn sch ngy mai. y l nguyn nhn chnh khin Fitch gimxp hng tn dng di hn ca Vit Nam t BB-xung B+ (tc l thp hn mcu t bn bc) vo cui thng 7-2010. Nh vy c th thy mi cng dn uc quyn li v c trch nhim t cc khon vay ca Nh nc. Biu 2: T l d n ca Chnh ph t nm 2007 n nm 2010 Page 2 of 21

NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02 B Bng 1: Xp hng n cng ca mt s quc gia trn th gii Bo co v ngn sch Nh nc tnh n 31/12/2009 tng s d n cng bng 52,6% GDP, nm 2010 d n Chnh ph bng 44,3% GDP, d n quc gia bng 42,2% GDP v d n cng bng 56,6% GDP.Xu hng gia tng n cng a n g m c b o n g ,

tc tng d n chnh ph bnh qun hng nm giaion 2006-2010 l 2 4 , 3 % . N c n g c a n c t a n m 2 0 1 0 m c 5 6 , 7 % GDP (GDP nm 2010 c thc hin l 1.951 nghn t ng). Trong : N chnh ph khong 44,5% GDP. N c chnh ph bo lnh khong 11,6% GDP (Quyt nhs 1 0 1 6 / Q T T g , p h d u y t h n m c v a y t h n g m i n c n g o i c Chnh ph bo lnh nm 2010 l 1.600 triu USD). N c a c h n h q u y n a p h n g t n g n g k h o n g 0 , 6 % GDP. N nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi GDP khong 42,2%. Ngha v tr n Chnh ph so vi thu ngn sch nh n c khong18,9%. N g h a v t r n n c n g o i t r u n g d i h n s o v i x u t k h u khong 5,1%.Ch ch trng nhiu n ngng n lm mc t l phn trm trong GDPtheo mc tiu, cha quan tm ng mc n vn quan trng hn l kimsot xu hng gia tng ca t l ny.C th hn v vn n nc ngoi, n nc ngoi ca quc gia so viGDP bng 39%, thuc din quc gia c n nc ngoi va phi, nu xt theokhuyn ngh ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB), theo trn 50% c cho l n qu nhiu; ngha v tr n nc ngoi trung di hn so vi xut khu hng ha,dch v ch bng 4,2% (WB cho php n 25%); d tr ngoi hi so vi n ncngoi ngn hn l 290% (khuyn ngh ca WB l trn 200%); ngha v tr n Chnh ph so vi tng thu ngn sch nh nc 5,1% (ngng an ton ca WB ldi 35%) Khng k n c Chnh ph bo lnh, trong tng s d n nc ngoiChnh ph gn 23,943 t USD, c n 19,325 t USD li sut t 12,99%; trn1,5 t USD li sut t 3-5,99%; 281,7 triu USD li sut 0-99% v 919 triuUSD mc li sut 6-10%. Ngoi ra, hn 1,9 t USD d n cn li c p lisut th ni theo li sut lin ngn hng ca th trng London (LIBOR).. NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02 Bng 2: N cng tnh trn u ngi ca mt s quc gia ngy 12/10/2010(Thng k da trn s liu ca tp ch The Economist) Theo nh bng trn ta thy hin ti Nht Bn ang l nc c s n cngtrn u ngi ln nht th gii, ng sau l Iceland v mt s nc chu u vmc n cng trn u ngi Vit Nam ch l 580.91 USD/ngi. So snh trn bng 2 th n cng trn u ngi ca Vit Nam c xp vo hng thp trongkhu vc chu - khu vc c t l n cng trn u ngi thp. Khu vc c t ln cng trn u ngi cao nht l chu u v Bc M v mc trung bnh lkhu vc Nam M.Xt trn phng din n cng trn u ngi th n cng Vit Namcha cao v c cho l thp trong khu vc chu v trn th gii nhng xt vn cng trn tng GDP th n cng Vit Nam c nh gi mc trung bnh.T l n cng trn GDP v n cng trn u ngi u ch phn nh mtcch phin din mc an ton hay ri ro ca n cng. Bi

l, v nh Hy Lp,n cng khong 100% GDP b ph sn th Nht Bn, n cng trn ungi c l cao nht th gii vn c coi l an ton. Do , an ton ca n cng khng ch ph thuc vo nhng con s nu trn m ch yu ph thuc vsc khe ca nn kinh t v kh nng tr n.Vy n cng Vit Nam nhng nm gn y l an ton hay nguy him? cn l mt cu hi gy tranh ci cho tt c cc nh kinh t hc trong nc vtrn th gii. Page 2 of 21 Quc giaN cng tnh trn ungi (USD) N h t B n 8 3 6 9 7 I c e l a n d 4 3 2 8 6 A n h 2 6 6 0 2 P h p 3 1 7 8 5 M a l a y s i a 4 1 8 4 C a n a d a 3 7 0 0 0 M 2 7 6 8 3 T h i L a n 2 0 6 4 P h i l i p p i n e s 1 0 7 1 I n d o n e s i a 7 4 3 T r u n g Q u c 7 1 3 . 6 V i t N a m 5 8 0 . 9 1

NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02 Trong c cu n cng ch yu l n di hn. V d nm 2011 b tr 85ngn t ng tr n so vi 590 ngn t thu ngn sch (tng ng 15%) thvn an ton. Tuy nhin, nu phn thu cn li sau khi tr n v chi thng xuynngy cng gim v tip cn n khng th vic vay n n ngng mt anton.Theo TS. T Vn Trng, ng nhn nh an ton ti chnh quc giaang c nguy c vt ngng cho php. Bi tnh n 31/12/2009, n cng sovi GDP chim 52,6%, trong n Chnh ph chim 41,9%, trong khi quy nhca Th tng v ch tiu n Chnh ph l 50%. Mc d n cng nm 2010 l52,6%, n nc ngoi chim 38,8% v n cng l 57% GDP nm 2011.B Keiko Kubota, kinh t trng ca Ngn hng th gii (WB) ti Vit Nam nhn xt: Mc d mc n ca Vit Nam nh hn ngng nhng vn cth gp cc c sc khng lng c nh GDP thp hn so vi d tnh, hay dolm pht tng cao, t gi thay i, cc khon d phng khng nh d ton, th slm n cng tng ln. Theo b phi m bo n l bn vng v khon n p h i l n h m n h m V i t N a m t h k h n g

p h i t t c c c k h o n n u l n h mnh.Cc chuyn gia ca WB hay IMF u cho rng n cng ca Vit Namvn l an ton. y ban Ti chnh - Ngn sch thy rng, vi d bo kh nng vtc tng trng kinh t v thu ngn sch nh nc nm 2011, cng vi c cun cng ch yu l n di hn v hin vn kh nng tr n nn n cng caVit Nam nm trong ngng an ton. Nhng do d n hin mc cao, xuth c vay n trung v di hn vi li sut u i s gim dn, nn cn thayi c cu ngun vn, bo m tr n n hn, gim dn vay n. iu mu chtl phi tng cng hiu qu u t, m bo duy tr cc ch s n trong giihn an ton, ph hp vi tim lc ca t nc, y ban Ti chnh - Ngn schca Quc hi nhn mnh.ng Alex Warren Rodriguez, chuyn gia Kinh t trng ca Chngt r n h p h t t r i n l i n h p q u c ( U N D P ) t i V i t N a m c h o r n g n u c h v o ngng n cng tnh trn GDP l cha . Bi Vit Nam cha th d bo cnhng iu s xy ra, m cn phi c mt thc o chun t cc nn kinh tkhc c hon cnh v iu kin kinh t tng t. Dn v d t trng hp caArgentina, mt quc gia d c mc n cng di 60% v ngn sch ti chnhkh tt, nhng vn xy ra khng hong n, chuyn gia Alex Warren Rodriguez phn tch: iu quan trng l chng ta phi gim st c thc trng kinh t v m. N cng v n t xut pht t tnh hnh ti chnh, da trn tnh hnh kinh tV i t N a m , t h g i i . D o c n m r n g c c h t h c s u y n g h v h i u v n v phn tch n. Khi , mi d on c tnh hung n c th xy ra. V d victng thu, c tc ng tt n ti chnh cng hin ti, nhng cng nh hng nkh nng bn vng ca ti chnh cng v di hn. Trng hp ca Argentina,trong nhng nm 90 ca th k trc, cc c quan ca Chnh ph Argentina, ha ra chnh sch ti chnh cng rt tt, nh thm ht ngn sch di 3%, n cng tnh trn GDP di 60%, lm pht thp, v Argentina cng l nc giu.Tuy nhin, mi vic thay i ch trong 3 4 nm, ri ro xy ra nh hngn ti chnh cng ca Argentina, dn n cuc khng hong n nc ny.y l nhng v d cho ta thy tnh hnh ch thay i rt nhanh. N cng caVit Nam nm 2010 l 56,6% GDP, d n chnh ph bng 44,3% GDP, d n quc gia bng 42,2% GDP. Vay n nc ngoi gim, vay n trong nc tng. Page 1 of 21 NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02 Mc d vy, mc d n chnh ph v n quc gia tng st mc trn cho php,iu hnh ngn sch v m bo an ninh ti chnh trong nm 2010 gp kh khn.Bn bo co thm tra (Ca ai? Vit v ci g?) cng ch ra rng, khi n quc gia tng st mc an ton, vay n trong nc v nc ngoi gp kh khnv phi vay vi li sut cao, dn ti an ninh ti chnh quc gia ng trc khkhn cho cc nm sau. Ngng n cng ca Vit Nam hn 50%. Du cc chuyn gia kinh tquc t cho rng, ngng n cng hn 50% GDP ca Vit nam l c th chpnhn c, nhng Vit Nam khng th ch quan. Thc t cho thy ngng n hay quy m n ch l iu kin cn thit hn ch cc nguy c

v ngn sch cth xy ra. Nh vy, trong khi tch lu t ni b nn kinh t thng qua ch tiu dnh ca quc gia lin tc gim th n cng lin tc tng, ngun u t tngv ngn sch li ngy cng tr nn thm ht. Mc thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam vt xa ngng "bo ng " 5%. y l mc cn gy tranh ci. Thd, theo mc chun ca khi EUR, th thm ht ngn sch khng c qu 3%GDP mi c xt l thnh vin ca Khi. Tt nhin, h phi tr gi nh khngh o n g n c n g v a q u a v k h n g t u n t h n h v y t h e o t h n g l q u c t , khin tnh bn vng ca n cng cng b gim st. N c n g c a M h i n n a y c h i m t i 9 0 % G D P ( t h e o W i k i l 9 3 % ) . Trong c ti trn 60% l do B Ti chnh M pht hnh tn/tri phiu ut r a n c n g o i , c n 3 2 % l n d o s d n g Q u A n n i n h x h i ( c h y u dng qu lng hu ca ngi M). Nh vy 60% "n" c u t v mang lil i n h u n cho Chnh ph M, mt phn c s dng lm ngun d tr b o lnh.i vi Vit Nam, ng lo hn c l vay n nhng lm n km hiu quv kh nng tr n ngy cng kh khn hn. Nguy c thy r khng gi niti chnh quc gia trong ngng an ton. Thiu ht ngn sch ngy cng tng, tl chi ngn sch nh nc thc hin so vi t l ngn sch Quc hi biu quytthng cch xa nhau khong 20%. 2.2.3. Ti tr n cng Vit Nam B i u 4 : T h m h t n g n s c h c a V i t N a m v i c c n c trn th gii . N g u n : N g n h n g Th gii, Natixis, UB N g n s c h Q H M (2010).

T nhng g xy ra trong thc tin, chng ta cng nhn n h n l i nhng g m bi chi ngn sch vi nhng u t qu hoang ph m khng cnn g h n r i r o h a y k h n g o n g o c r i r o . V n h v T p o n C n g nghip Tu thy Vit Nam Vinashin vi s n ln ti 86.000 t VND nhngthc cht l ti 120.000 t VND.Con tu ma Vinashin do tp on quc doanh qun l cha kp ra khivng vy trc sng gi vi m ngay trc bi ng tu ca mnh li t di chc vi khon n khng l (hn 100.000 ngn t ng) cho ngi dn laong ngho Vit Nam gii quyt!Trong bo co ca B k hoch v u t th con s GDP bnh qun ungi nm 2010 ti Vit Nam c khong 1.200 USD, tc GDP ca c ncn m 2 0 1 0 c t k h o n g 1 0 3 t U S D t h k h o n n c a V i n a s h i n c x c nh tng ng 6% GDP ca c nc nm 2010. Con s GDP trn y ch lc tnh, tc l c th t, c th khng t, t t l n Vinashin trn GDP cnc c th cao hn 6%.Ring mt mnh Vinashin m khon n chim t l 6% GPD, trongkhi , khi Doanh Nghip nh nc vi tim nng ti chnh v ngun lc to lnnhng mc li nhun thp, thm ch c doanh nghip l nhiu nm lin. Do, mc n ca cc doanh nghip nh nc thc s l mt mi lo ngi cho nnkinh t.Hn na, trong nhng nm ti, nu nhng d n ang cn rt nhiu vnnh d n ng st cao tc Bc Nam (56 t USD), d n xy dng th (60t U S D ) , nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun (hn 10 t USD) c

t h c hin th mc n cng s cn tng cao. N h v y c t h t h y v n n c n g c h a c q u a n t m n g m c ; cch tnh bi chi cha r rng. Vic vay n ca cc tp on c tnh vo bi chingn sch hay khng? T bi hc ca Vinashin cho thy nu tp on ny b phsn th Chnh ph phi can thip v chu trch nhim vi cc khon vay ca tpon. Tng bng ngm trong nhng mn n t bt u ni ln v c tnht 300 triu USD n ca ring Vinashin bin thnh n cng ca qucgia.Ngy 15/9/2010, Vn phng Chnh ph k cng vn truyn t kinca Ph Th tng Nguyn Sinh Hng quyt nh cho Vinashin khon tin 300triu USD tr n. Khi lng vay vn nc ngoi c chnh ph bo lnhc h o V i n a s h i n n m 2 0 0 9 m c g n 4 t U S D , t n g g p 4 l n m c 0 , 9 1 t USD trong nm 2005. T trng n nc ngoi trong tng d n ca Chnh phc n g t n g l n m c 1 4 , 2 7 % n m 2 0 0 9 , g p 2 l n m c 6 , 4 % n m 2 0 0 5 . n m 2005- 2010, d n c Chnh ph bo lnh tng qua cc nm. Bnh qun 5 nmqua tng khong 40%/nm. Trong , n trong nc tng khong 42%/nm, n nc ngoi tng khong 38%/nm. T l d n c Chnh ph bo lnh so viGDP cng tng qua cc nm, bnh qun mc 7% GDP/nm, trong , bo lnhvay n trong nc mc 5% GDP/nm v bo lnh vay n nc ngai mc2% GDP/nm. Bo co ca Chnh ph Vit Nam ni nm 2010 c 20/21 n vthuc khi tp on, tng cng ty 91 lm n c li, tr Vinashin. Nh vy chngt a t h y c t h c t r n g u t c n g c a V i t N a m q u q u a n l i u , y u k m , khng mang li hiu qu, nu cha mun ni cn thua l.