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H H tr Quyt nh

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BI 2. AHP (ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS)


NI DUNG PHN 1. L THUYT ................................................................................................... 1 I. TNG QUAN V AHP........................................................................................... 1 II. V D MINH HA.............................................................................................. 2 PHN 2. THC HNH.................................................................................................. 5 I. QUYT NH CHN CNG VIC TT NHT .............................................................. 5 II. QUYT NH CHN MUA XE TT NHT .............................................................. 14 PHN 3. BI TP NHM............................................................................................ 16 I. BI TP TNH HUNG ...................................................................................... 16 II. BI TP T CH .......................................................................................... 18 III. BI TP T CHN ......................................................................................... 18 PH LC. HNG DN CI T EXPERT CHOICE 11....................................................... 19

PHN 1. L THUYT
I. TNG QUAN V AHP
AHP l mt phng php nh lng, dng sp xp cc phng n quyt nh v chn mt phng n tha mn cc tiu ch cho trc. AHP l mt qu trnh pht trin t s sp hng cho mi phng n quyt nh da theo cc tiu ch ca nh ra quyt nh. AHP tr li cc cu hi nh Chng ta nn chn phng n no? hay Phng n no tt nht? bng cch chn mt phng n tt nht tha mn cc tiu ch ca nh ra quyt nh. AHP s dng: Cc php ton n gin Cc tiu ch (do nh ra quyt nh thit lp) u tin cho cc tiu ch (do nh ra quyt nh thit lp) Bng u tin chun: Mc u tin u tin bng nhau (Equally preferred) u tin bng nhau cho n va phi (Equally to moderately preferred) u tin va phi (Moderately preferred) u tin va phi cho n hi u tin (Moderately to strongly preferred) Hi u tin hn (Strongly preferred) Hi u tin cho n rt u tin (Strongly to very strongly preferred) Rt u tin (Very strongly preferred) Rt u tin cho n v cng u tin (Very strongly to extremely preferred) V cng u tin (Extremely preferred) Gi tr s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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II. V D MINH HA
Cng ty Jilley Bean mun chn mt v tr mi m rng hot ng ca cng ty. Cng ty s dng AHP nhm gip xc nh v tr no thch hp xy nh my mi. Cng ty da vo 4 tiu ch: gi tr ti sn (PRICE), khong cc gia cc nh cung cp (DISTANCE), cht lng lao ng (LABOR) v chi ph lao ng (WAGE). Cng ty c 3 v tr (LOCATION) cn xem xt da vo 4 tiu ch trn. u tin ca cc phng n ng vi mi tiu ch: PRICE A B C A 1 1/3 1/2 LABOR A B C A 1 3 1 B 1/3 1 1/7 C 1 7 1 A B C A 1 3 2 B 3 1 5 C 2 1/5 1 A B C DISTANCE A B 1 6 1/6 1 3 9 WAGE B 1/3 1 1/4 C 1/2 4 1

C 1/3 1/9 1

Bc 1
Tnh tng cc gi tr trong mi ct. PRICE B A 3 + + B 1/3 1 + + 5 C 1/2 = 11/6 9 A 1

C 2 + 1/5 + 1 16/5

Bc 2
Chia mi gi tr trong mi ct cho tng cc ct tng ng. PRICE B 3:9 = 3/9 + 1:9 = 1/9 + 5:9 = 5/9 1

A B C

A 1:11/6 = 6/11 + 1/3:11/6 = 2/11 + 1/2:11/6 = 3/11 = 1

C 2:16/5 = 5/8 + 1/5:16/5 = 1/16 + 1:16/5 = 5/16 1

Ghi ch: Tng gi tr trong mi ct bng 1.


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Bc 3
Tm gi tr trung bnh cho mi hng ca cc phng n. PRICE C 5/8 = .6250 1/16 = .0625 5/16 = .3803

A B C

A 6/11 = .5455 2/11 = .1818 3/11 = .2727

+ + +

B 3/9 = .3333 1/9 = .1111 5/9 = .5556

+ + +

= = =

1.5038:3 .3544:3 1.2086:3

= = =

Trung bnh hng .5012 .1185 .3803 1.000

Bc 4
Lp li cc bc t 1-3 cho cc tiu ch cn li. Ma trn tiu ch: Location A B C Price .5012 .1185 .3803 Distance .2819 .0598 .6583 Labor .1790 .6850 .1360 Wage .1561 .6196 .2243

Bc 5
Sp hng cc tiu ch theo quan trng, s dng cng phng php sp hng cc phng n i vi mi tiu ch. Cc tiu ch Price Distance Labor Wage Price 1 5 1/3 1/4 Distance 1/5 1 1/9 1/7 Labor 3 9 1 1/2 Wage 4 7 2 1

Bc 6
Lp li cc bc t 1-3 cho ma trn bc 5. Cc tiu ch Price Distance Labor Wage Price .1519 .7595 .0506 .0380 Distance .1375 .6878 .0764 .0983 Labor .2222 .6667 .0741 .0370 Wage .2857 .5000 .1429 .0714 Trung bnh hng .1993 .6535 .0860 .0612 1.0000

Vct u tin ca cc tiu ch: Cc tiu ch .1993 .6535 .0860 .0612

Price Distance Labor Wage

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Bc 7
Nhn ma trn tiu ch vi vct u tin ca cc tiu ch. Cc tiu ch .1993 .6535 .0860 .0612

Location A B C

Price .5012 .1185 .3803

Distance .2819 .0598 .6583

Labor .1790 .6850 .1360

Wage .1561 .6196 .2243

Price Distance Labor Wage

A = .1993*.0512 + .6535*.2819 + .0860*.1790 + .0612*.1561 = .3091 B = .1993*.1185 + .6535*.0598 + .0860*.6850 + .0612*.6196 = .1595 C = .1993*.3803 + .6535*.6583 + .0860*.1360 + .0612*.2243 = .5314 Kt qu: Location A B C Gi tr 0.3091 0.1595 0.5314 1.0000

Da vo kt qu trn, cng ty chn v tr v tr C xy thm nh my mi, v C c gi tr ln hn A v B.

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PHN 2. THC HNH


I. QUYT NH CHN CNG VIC TT NHT
Mt nhn vin mun chn mt cng cc tiu ch nh sau: PAY PRO RIS TYP PRE LOC HOU VAC DIS vic tt nht trong nm cng vic A, B, C, D, E da vo

(pay per year, lng nm) (promotion potential, c hi thng tin) (risk of job loss, ri ro mt vic) (type of work, loi cng vic) (job prestige, a v cng vic) (location, a im lm vic) (hours per week, gi/tun) (weeks of work per year, tun/nm) (distance from home, khong cch)

Nm cng vic ang xem xt chn la l: A. Chuyn vin my tnh lm ti a phng, 20.000 $/nm, chm thng tin, ri ro mt vic thp, 8-5 gi 5 ngy/tun, 48 tun/nm B. Phn tch h thng thng tin 8 cng ty ln ca 1 thnh ph ln, 30.000$/nm, c hi thng tin va phi, ri ro mt vic cao, 7-6 gi 5 ngy/tun, 50 tun/nm, lng tr thm gi nhiu C. Bn phn mm cng ty quc t nh trong thnh ph k cn, 28.000$/nm, c hi thng tin cao, ri ro mt vic va phi, 7-6 gi 6 ngy/tun, 50 tun/nm, khng tr thm gi D. Phn tch h thng thng tin cng ty ln, xuyn quc gia, 35.000$/nm, c hi thng tin va phi, ri ro mt vic va phi, 9-6 gi 5 ngy tun, 50 tun/nm, tr lng thm gi E. Lp chng trnh bo tr cng ty du kh, ngang quc gia, 28.000$/nm, chm thng tin, ri ro mt vic va phi, 8- gi 5 ngy/tun, 50 tun/nm, tr lng thm gi Nhn din cc tiu ch nh gi phng n (cy tiu ch)

LEVEL 1: LEVEL 2: REIMB PAY PRO RIS

VALUE WORK TYP PRE LOC PERSONAL HOU VAC DIS

LEVEL 3:

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Khi ng ng dng Expert Choice v to tp tin SelJob.ahp mi


Nhp vo Start > All Programs > Expert Choice 11 > Expert Choice 11. Trong hp hi thoi Welcome to Expert Choice, chn Create new model, chn phng php Direct, ri nhp nt OK. Lu m hnh vi tn l SelJob.ahp.

Hnh 1: Bt u thit lp m hnh mi


Trong hp hi thoi Goal Description, nhp vo mc tiu chung ca m hnh l: Choose the best vacation job ri nhp nt OK.

Hnh 2: Nhp mc tiu chung ca m hnh

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To cc tiu ch cho mc tiu chung dng cy phn cp


Chn trnh n Edit > Insert Child of Current Node, nhp vo tiu ch REIMB ri nhn Enter. Tip tc nhp vo cc tiu ch khc: nhp tiu ch WORK, nhn Enter; nhp tiu ch PERSONAL, nhn Enter; nhn Esc.

Lu : b mt nt ang nhp, nhn phm Esc. xa mt nt to xong, chn trnh n Edit > Delete Node hoc nhn phm Delete.

Hnh 3: Nhp tiu ch REIMB

Hnh 4: Tiu ch cp 1 ca m hnh

Tip theo, nhp cc tiu ch con ca cc tiu ch REIMB, WORK v PERSONAL. Nhp chn nt tiu ch REIMB, chn Edit > Insert Child of Current Node, nhp PAY, nhn Enter; nhp PRO, nhn Enter; nhp RIS, nhn Enter, ri nhn Esc. Tng t i vi WORK, nhp vo cc tiu ch con TYP v PRE. Tng t i vi PERSONAL, nhp vo cc tiu ch con LOC, HOU, VAC, v DIS.

Hnh 5: Sau khi nhp xong cc tiu ch con (cp 2)

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So snh cp trong mc 1
Nhp cc gi tr th hin mc quan trng ca thnh phn ny so vi thnh phn khc trong na tam gic phi trn ca ma trn so snh cp. Gi s nhn vin ny so snh cc tiu ch theo tng cp v c kt qu nh bng sau: Mc 1 REIMB WORK PERSONAL UTILITY (Choose the best vacation job) REIMB WORK PERSONAL 1 5 9 1 3 1

Cc kt qu ny s c nhp vo m hnh nh sau: Nhp chn nt Goal, chn trnh n Assessment > Pairwise. Mt trong ba th Pairwise Numerical Comparisons ( ), Pairwise Verbal Comparisons ( ), Pairwise Graphical Comparisons ( ) s c kch hot. Ti (REIMB,WORK), chn mc 5. Ti (REIMB,PERSONAL), chn mc 9. Ti (WORK,PERSONAL), chn mc 3.

Hnh 6a: Ma trn so snh cp vi 9 mc so snh chn la (khi chn th

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Hnh 6b: Ma trn so snh cp vi 9 mc so snh chn la (khi chn th

Hnh 6c: Ma trn so snh cp vi 9 mc so snh chn la (khi chn th

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Sau khi nhp xong cc gi tr, chn trnh n Assessment > Calculate hoc chn th Priorities devired from Pairwise Comparisons ( ). Mn hnh Priorities hin ra, cho bit: UTILITY = 0.751 REIMB + 0.178 WORK + 0.070 PERSONAL Inconsistency (ch s khng ng nht) = 0.03

Hnh 7: Mn hnh Priorities cho bit vct Eigen v ch s khng ng nht Tip tc so snh cp trong mc 2
Nhp chn mc tiu con REIMB, chn trnh n Assessment > Pairwise nhp vo cc gi tr th hin mc quan trng gia cc thnh phn trong na tam gic phi trn ca ma trn so snh cp: Mc 2 PAY PRO RIS PAY 1 REIMB PRO 3 1

RIS 5 2 1

Kt qu trong mn hnh Priorities: REIMB = 0.648 PAY + 0.230 PRO + 0.122 RIS Inconsistency (ch s khng ng nht) = 0.00352

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Thc hin tng t i vi tiu ch WORK v PERSONAL: Mc 2 TYP PRE TYP 1 WORK PRE 2 1

WORK = 0.667 TYP + 0.333 PRE Inconsistency (ch s khng ng nht) = 0.00 Mc 2 LOC HOU VAC DIS LOC 1 PERSONAL HOU VAC 3 5 1 2 1

DIS 2 1/3 1/5 1

PERSONAL = 0.465 LOC + 0.134 HOU + 0.074 VAC + 0.327 DIS Inconsistency (ch s khng ng nht) = 0.02

Hnh 8: Mn hnh sau khi kt thc cc bc trn


Hm hu ch UTILITY c dng: aPAY + bPRO + cRIS + dTYP + ePRE + fLOC + gHOU + hVAC + iDIS

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xem cc gi tr a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i ca hm hu ch, chn trnh n Synthesize > With Respect to Goal hoc chn th Synthesis Results ( ). Trong ca s mi, chn Distributive Mode. Hm hu ch tng ng l:

Hnh 9: Xem cc h s ca hm hu ch UTILITY


UTILITY 0.487 PAY (pay per year, lng nm) + 0.173 PRO (promotion potential, c hi thng tin) + 0.092 RIS (risk of job loss, ri ro mt vic) + 0.119 TYP (type of work, loi cng vic) + 0.059 PRE (job prestige, a v cng vic) + 0.033 LOC (location, a im lm vic) + 0.009 HOU (hours per week, gi/tun) + 0.005 VAC (weeks of work per year, tun/nm) + 0.023 DIS (distance from home, khong cch) Overall Inconsistency (Ch s khng ng nht chung) = 0.02 = ), nhp tn phng n l A ri

Khai bo cc phng n
Chn trnh n Edit > Alternative > Insert (hoc nhn nt nhn OK. Tip tc, nhp phng n B, C, D, E.

Hnh 10: Nhp cc phng n


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Nhp gi tr ca cc phng n
Chn trnh n Go > Data Grid hoc chn th Data Grid ( ). Nhp chn tng ct tiu ch ri chn trnh n Fomula Type > Direct. Nhp gi tr nh gi cc phng n ng vi tng tiu ch (0/100 l nh nht v 100/100 l ln nht): PAY .487 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 PRO .173 0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0 RIS .092 1.0 0 0.6 0.6 0.6 TYP .119 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.3 PRE .059 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 LOC .033 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 HOU .009 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.0 VAC .005 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 DIS .023 1.0 0.8 0.6 0 0.3

A B C D E

Hnh 11: Nhp gi tr nh gi cc phng n ng vi mi tiu ch


xem gi tr ca cc phng n, chn trnh n View > Totals column. Khi , trong li d liu c thm ct Total cho bit gi tr Ui ca cc phng n tng ng. Chn phng n c U ln nht. l cng vic D v UD = Umax = 0.275

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II. QUYT NH CHN MUA XE TT NHT


S dng Expert Choice, tm li gii cho bi ton di y:

Chn mua xe tt nht

Price

MPG

Comfort

Style

Car A Car B Car C

Car A Car B Car C Car A 13100 18 Deluxe 4-Door Mid-size AM/FM, tape 6-cylinder

Car A Car B Car C Car B 11200 23 Above Average 2-Door Sport AM/FM 4-cylinder turbo

Car A Car B Car C Car C 9500 29 Standard 2-door compact AM 4-cylinder

Price MPG Interior Body Radio Engine

Cc u tin cho bn tiu ch Tiu ch Price Price 1 MPG Comfort Style

MPG 3 1

Comfort 2 0.25 1

Style 2 0.25 0.5 1

Cc u tin ca ba xe theo tiu ch Price Price Car A Car B Car A 1 0.33333333 Car B 1 Car C Cc u tin ca ba xe theo tiu ch MPG MPG Car A Car B Car A 1 0.25 Car B 1 Car C

Car C 0.25 0.5 1 Car C 0.166667 0.333333 1

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Cc u tin ca ba xe theo tiu ch Comfort Comfort Car A Car B Car A 1 2 Car B 1 Car C Cc u tin ca ba xe theo tiu ch Style Style Car A Car B Car A 1 0.33333333 Car B 1 Car C p s:

Car C 8 6 1

Car C 4 7 1

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PHN 3. BI TP NHM
I. BI TP TNH HUNG

SCOTT HOMES XY DNG M HNH CHN LA NH CUNG CP CN H LU NG


GII THIU ng Jesse Scott l ch cng ty Scott Housing, mt cng ty bun bn cn h lu ng ti thnh ph Sylvania, bang Georgia (GA). ng Scott ang phi quyt nh la chn nh sn xut cn h lu ng tim nng. ng ta phi chn nh cung cp sao cho p ng s hi lng khch hng ng ta cao nht v lm cho cng ty ng ta c li nht qua cht lng sn phm ca h v cc yu t khc. Bi ton ra quyt nh a tiu ch ny l mt bi ton l tng p dng AHP. Tnh hung ny xy ra vo nm 2001. M HNH AHP CA SCOTT HOUSING Qua cuc phng vn ng Scott cho thy cc tiu ch sau l quan trng nht trong qu trnh ra quyt nh ca ng ta: gi c, dch v khch hng, cht lng vt liu, a im nh cung cp, thi gian giao hng, quan h c bit vi nh cung cp, v thi gian kinh doanh trn th trng ca nh cung cp. Hin nay, ng Scott mua cn h lu ng t hai nh cung cp thng xuyn (Horton Homes v Jaguar) v ang xem xt mua t hai nh cung cp mi (Schult v Batchlor). ng ta rt quan tm mun xem m hnh trng nh th no v liu hai nh cung cp mi (Batchlor v Schult) c u th hn hai nh cung cp thng xuyn (Horton v Jaguar) hay khng. CC TIU CH Sau khi phng vn k ng Scott, su tiu ch quan trng l: gi, dch v khch hng, cht lng vt liu, a im nh cung cp, thi gian kinh doanh, v quan h vi nh cung cp. CC NH CUNG CP Horton Homes c tr s ti Eatonton, bang Georgia (GA) v kinh doanh t 1970. B dy pht trin ca cng ty cho thy s cam kt ca h vi khch hng v sn phm cn h hp dn, d mua v c thit k v xy dng bng cng ngh tin tin. Horton s dng cng ngh hn mi nht. Khung dm ch I c ch to c thm sc nhiu hn lm cho cht lng cn nh cao hn. Horton sn xut cc khun c vn g p chn tng, khung ca, tay vn gh vi nhiu kch thc, kiu dng v mu sc a dng. Horton s hu hn 100 xe ti m bo giao hng ng hn v lch s cho cc trung tm bn l. Trung thnh vi nhng tiu chun ti thiu nhng cao hn so vi yu cu cho cc cn nh xy dng, Horton Homes xy dng theo cc tiu chun an ton thuc lin bang c thit lp bi Ban Nh v Pht Trin Th (HUD). iu ny m bo rng mi cn h s p ng hoc vt xa cc quy nh nghim ngt ca

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lin bang v cc yu t nh thit k, cu trc, nng lng, an ton gi v la, thng gi, sc bn, v quy trnh lp dng. Juguar Homes chuyn v thit k v xy dng cc cn h mt v hai tng cao cp. Juguar kinh doanh c 35 nm trong xy dng cc cn h mt gia nh, kinh doanh bt ng sn ti Los Angeles, bang California (CA). Gn y cng ty m rng kinh doanh tt pha ng, vng Virginia. Schult Homes thnh lp nm 1934 v t ho rng cung cp cc sn phm cho khch hng c cht lng, iu luyn v dch v tt, cng ty c quan h vng chc vi cc nh bn l. Schult cho hng nhiu dng m hnh nh, bn v tng nh, gi c p ng nhu cu khch hng. Hiu qu sn xut trong qu trnh ch to ca Schult c th tit kim cho ngi mua nh 30% mi foot vung trn ton b cn nh xy dng trong khi vn cung cp cng tin nghi v hnh thc. Schult c tr s thnh ph Schult bang Missouri (MO). Batchlor Supply kinh doanh xy dng nh gn c 20 nm, c tr s Raleigh bang North Carolina (NC), v l nh bn tim nng cho cng ty Scott Housing. Batchlor Supply t ho v dch v khch hng v gi c rt kinh t.

Hnh: Bn so snh khong cch gia cc bang nc M.


CU HI 1. Mc tiu ca bi ton ra quyt nh trong tnh hung ny l g? 2. Gii thch thm v sao cc tiu ch c nu trong tnh hung l quan trng. 3. Dng phn mm Expert Choice xy dng m hnh nh trong tnh hung ca ng Scott. Khi lp m hnh, hy t dng nhn nh v nh gi ca ring anh/ch. Cho bit p n v gii thch.

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II. BI TP T CH
t mt bi ton ra quyt nh a tiu ch da trn kinh nghim thc t ca chnh bn thn anh/ch. Lp m hnh v tm li gii (dng phn mm Expert Choice).

III. BI TP T CHN
Chn mt trong ba cu di y: a) Tm hiu mt cng c h tr quyt nh da trn AHP tng t nh Expert Choice. b) Tm hiu phng php Analytic Network Process (ANP) ca Satty. (Hng dn: tm trn Internet hoc tham kho quyn Saaty T.L. and Vargas L.G., Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process, Springer, 2006 do GV cung cp) c) Tm trn Internet mt tnh hung thc t v vic p dng phng php AHP ri m t li.

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PH LC. HNG DN CI T EXPERT CHOICE 11


1. Gii nn Expert.Choice.v11.rar vo a cng, chng hn C:\Expert.Choice.v11 2. Thc thi C:\Expert.Choice.v11\setupec.exe 3. Ti mn hnh cho mng, nhp Next.

4. Ti mn hnh License Agreement, chn I Agree ri nhp Next.

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5. Ti mn hnh Destination Location, nhp Next.

6. Ti mn hnh Start Installation, nhp Next.

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7. Ti mn hnh Registration, nhp Serial Number (c trong tp tin C:\Expert.Choice.v11\crack\Expert.Choice.11.Serial.txt), User Name, Company Name ri nhp OK.

8. Nhp Finish hon tt qu trnh ci t.

9. Chp tp tin C:\Expert.Choice.v11\crack\ECcomponent.dll vo th mc C:\Program Files\Expert Choice 11

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