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new economy
barry.d.libert@arthurandersen.com
Value?
What is
Agenda for Today
nWill the Real Economy...
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 1
Introducing Our New Book
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 2
Will The...
Real Economy Standup
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 3
Bull or Bear - $100 Invested in 1982
n$31,700 in software
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 4
And It is Just the Beginning...
80
60
40 2000
2002
20
0
buyers sellers
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 5
...Both in US and Abroad!
$ B in 2002 - 4
400
300
200 B:C
B:B
100
0
Japan Europe US
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 6
The Rules Are Changing!
nGlobalization is Key
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 7
How Do Businesses Create Value?
180
160 AOL vs Time Warner
Market Value ($ billion)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
3/31/92
9/30/92
3/31/93
9/30/93
3/31/94
9/30/94
3/31/95
9/30/95
3/31/96
9/30/96
3/31/97
9/30/97
3/31/98
9/30/98
3/31/99
9/30/99
1993 1999
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 8
Business Models Determine Value
180
AOL Simon Property
160
Market Value ($ billion)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1993
3/31/92
9/30/92
3/31/93
9/30/93
3/31/94
9/30/94
3/31/95
9/30/95
3/31/96
9/30/96
3/31/97
9/30/97
3/31/98
9/30/98
3/31/99
9/30/99
1999
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 9
Business Models Determine Value
40,000 NTT
Yen (billions)
30,000
20,000 NTT
Docomo
10,000 Shinnittetsu
0
Softbank
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 10
Do Profits
Matter?
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 11
How Do YOU Calculate Value?
Assets Revenues
Cash Flow
Liabilities Expenses
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 12
You are Your Assets, All of Them!
Physical Customer
Tangible Intangible
Organization
Assets Assets
Employee
Financial & Supplier
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 13
Business Models Drive Success
New Economy
Old Economy
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 14
Business
Not as Usual
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 15
Leaders asking Same Questions
D - Markets
Value
Transformation
P - Markets
Time
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 17
Implications For You
nWhich New Assets?
ValueDynamics
© 2000 Arthur Andersen. All rights reserved. 18
BUT, Don’t Forget all the Issues