D Bo Nhu Cu in Nng

H thng in. D bo. Mc ch nghin cu. Phng php lun. Kt qu. Kt lun.

Electric Power System H thng in.

Electric Power System H thng in.

Mt h thng in l 1 h thng ng vi s cn bng gia cung v cu. Nhu cu in nng thay i theo thi gian : Tnh tc thi (pht, giy). Thi gian ngn (gi, ngy). Thi gian di (thng, nm). D bo nhu cu in nng rt quan trng trong vic : Lp k hoch cng sut pht in cho nh my. Xem xt ng tin trong h thng. Ngun tng ng.

Principles of Forecasting Nhng nguyn tc d bo.

Di y l mt s hng dn gip cho vic xy dng nhng m hnh d bo ng tin cy hn. Xc nh nguyn nhn. Phi nhn bit c mi quan h nhn qu, tm kim nhng nguyn nhn v nh hng ca cc mi quan h thay v ch xem xt nhng mi tng quan trong qu kh. Kh nng sinh li. C th ti to c. V chc nng nhim v. Phi ph hp vi nhng quyt nh sp ti.

Principles of Forecasting Nhng nguyn tc d bo.

Kim tra nhy. Hu ht nhng phng php lun cho d bo u c thc hin gi nh v tng lai. nh hng ca nhng d bo khng chc chn phi c chuyn. m bo tnh n gin. Ch bao gm nhng thng tin trong m hnh cng nh s cn thit cho nhng d on chnh xc.

Study objective Mc ch nghin cu.

d bo nhu cu in nng trong nc vi m hnh vi khng gian l 20 nm. Tng s in nng tiu th hng nm. Nm bt c nh hng theo ma. Khng tn ti s thc p trong vic cung cp in nng.

Methodology Phng php nghin cu

Hi quy tuyn tnh. Lin quan n nhng yu t c th nh hng n tiu th in hng nm trong tng lnh vc. M t ca m hnh ca s bin i hng gi, hng ngy v hng tun trong nhu cu in. Kch bn. Chiu ca u vo ("iu khin") thng tin c s dng trong cc m hnh hi quy ngnh in lc yu cu.. Tng s d bo nhu cu in hng nm cho mi kch bn Tp hp v iu chnh d bo nhu cu hng nm ca ngnh.

Methodology Phng php nghin cu

D kin gi tr nhu cu nh cao cho mi kch bn. Chng mu hng gi, hng ngy v hng tun v cc d bo nhu cu hng nm. Lch s thu thp d liu nhu cu in hng nm. Phn tch thnh cc nhu cu hng nm theo khu vc. Nng nghip. Trong nc. Thng mi & Sn xut. Giao thng vn ti.

Methodology Phng php nghin cu

Lch s ch s thng tin.

Dn s. Gi tr sn xut trong nc (GDP). Chi tiu tiu dng cui cng ca (FCEH) H gia nh. Cc ch s khai thc m.

Regression Modelling of Sectoral Demand M hnh hi quy nhu cu ca ngnh.

M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh. ao a1 x1 a2 x2 ...an xn i vi tng ngnh, y l nhu cu hng nm v x l c "iu khin" thng tin. Qu trnh l tm gi tr ca mt a0, a1, a2,... m c th cung cp cho cc d bo tt nht nhu cu (y) cho cc d bo s kt hp (x) bin. m bo cc bin d on c ngha hp l, v chng a ra mt m hnh thng k hp l. M hnh hi quy c hiu nh l mt mi quan h (thc nghim) hon ton thng k, khng phi l mt mi quan h nhn - qu.

Chosen Regression Models: Cc M Hnh Hi Quy c Chn

Tm tt cc bin s d bo c chn mi ngnh.
B phn in Nng nghip My quan trc bin thin Log (FCEH)

Giao thng

GDP bnh qun u ngi, ch s sn xut than.