Vi nt tng quan v h thng nng lng Vit Nam v nh hng pht

trin nng lng quc gia n nm 2020, tm nhn n nm 2050

T Vn Hng
V trng V Nng lng
I. TNG QUAN NNG LNG VIT NAM
1. Cung cp nng lng s cp
Nm 2005, tng nng lng sn xut ca c nc t khong 44,4 triu
TOE (tn du tng ng), trong than sch 30,8 triu tn; du th 18,8
triu tn; kh thin nhin (gm c kh ng hnh) 6,9 t m3; thu in 16,5 t
kWh. Nm 2006, tng nng lng sn xut ca c nc t trn 46,8 triu TOE,
tng 5,2 % so vi nm 2005, trong than sch 37 triu tn; du th 17,3 triu
tn; kh thin nhin (gm c kh ng hnh) 7 t m3; thu in 19,6 t kWh.
Sn xut nng lng c tc tng bnh qun giai on 1991 - 2005 l
12,7%/nm; trong tng nhanh nht l khai thc du kh tng 16,1%; tip n
l than tng 13,4%, in sn xut tng 12,7%.
C cu nng lng sn xut nm 2005 v 2006 tng ng: du m chim
41,2% v 37,2%; than 36,8% v 44,2%; thu in 7,5% v 3,6%; kh thin
nhin 14,5% v 15%.
Tng nng lng s cp cung cp cho nhu cu trong nc tng t 7 triu
TOE nm 1990 ln khong 29,8 triu TOE nm 2005, bnh qun tng
10,13%/nm. C cu nng lng s cp tiu th trong nc nm 2005: sn
phm du chim 40,3%; than 29,4%; thu in 11,7%; kh thin nhin 18,1%;
in nhp khu v nng lng mi 0,5%.
2. Xut nhp khu nng lng
Xut khu du th v than tng mnh. Nm 2005, Vit Nam xut khu 18
triu tn du th v 14,7 triu tn than. Kim ngch xut khu nng lng t
khong gn 8 t USD, tng 33% so vi nm 2004 v bng khong 25% kim
ngch xut khu c nc.
Nm 2006, xut khu than ca Vit Nam tng ln mc 21,6 triu tn,
trong khi , xut khu du th ch t 16,98 triu tn.
Do cha c nh my lc du nn hu ht cc sn phm du cho nhu cu
trong nc u phi nhp khu, nm 2005 nhp khong 11,5 triu tn cc sn
phm du (k c du ti xut khong 1 triu tn) tng ln n gn 12 triu tn
nm 2006.

Do sn xut du th v than tng nhanh, Vit Nam t mt nc nhp

khu nng lng tr thnh nc xut khu nng lng t nm 1990 n nay.
Nm 2005, xut khu nng lng khong 14,6 triu TOE.
3. Tnh hnh tiu th nng lng
Tng tiu th nng lng cui cng ca Vit Nam nm 2005 khong 21,8
triu TOE, tc tng tiu th bnh qun giai on 1991 2005 khong
11,6%/nm.
Trong c cu tiu th nng lng nm 2005, ngnh cng nghip c t
trng ln nht: chim 44%, tip n l ngnh giao thng vn ti khong 29,7%;
dch v chim 7,7%; nng nghip 2,4% v dn dng 16,2%.
C cu tiu th nng lng cui cng theo cc dng nng lng nm
2005, cc sn phm du chim t trng cao nht 52,1%, tip n l than 27,2%,
in 17,7% v kh thin nhin chim 3%.
Giai on 1991-2005, nhu cu in thng phm tng nhanh nht, bnh
qun tng 14,1%/nm; tip n l cc sn phm du kh 11,5%/nm v than
10,5%/nm.
Tnh theo t gi la nm 1994, cng nng lng thng mi ca
Vit Nam nm 2005 l qu cao (khong 616 kgOE/1000 USD), gp khong 1,5
ln Thi Lan v gp hn 2 ln so vi mc bnh qun chung ca th gii.
Nm 2005, tiu th nng lng s cp bnh qun u ngi ca Vit
Nam khong 360 kgOE/ngi; tiu th nng lng cui cng khong 264
kgOE/ngi. Mc tiu th nng lng bnh qun ca Vit Nam mi bng
khong 20% mc bnh qun chung ca th gii.
II. TIM NNG CC NGUN NNG LNG VIT NAM
Vit Nam c ngun nng lng s cp a dng nh than, du kh, thu
nng, nng lng mi v ti to, phn b v tim nng nh gi ca nhng loi
ngun nng lng lng ny c trnh by c th di y:
1. Tr lng ti nguyn than:
Tng hp tr lng than c tm kim kho st thm d nh gi
tr lng tnh n 01/01/2005 trn 5,88 t tn, trong cp A+B+C l 4,9 t
tn.
Vng Qung Ninh v ni a: Tng tr lng than cp A+B+C1+C2
vng Qung Ninh v khu vc ni a tnh n su -300 cn li khong 3,86
t tn, trong tr lng xc nh A+B+C1 c kh nng a vo khai thc
l 2,2 t tn. Nu tnh n y tng than su n 1100m, tr lng v ti
nguyn than vng Qung Ninh c th ln n 10 t tn. Tr lng than nu
Na Dng (Lng Sn) cn li 90 triu tn.

B than ng bng Bc B v thm lc a: Than ng bng sng Hng

l loi than nu (Sub bituminous) c nhit nng cao, hm lng lu hunh thp,
tim nng tr lng d bo rt ln. Tng cng ty Than Vit Nam vi s gip
ca Chnh ph Nht Bn tin hnh tm kim thm d than ti y, ring
khong sng Bnh Minh - Khoi Chu (Hng Yn) c thm d n mc 450 m c tr lng 158 triu tn.
Ti nguyn than khu vc Khoi Chu tnh n su 1000 mt (din
tch 80 km2) l 1.406 triu tn. Ti nguyn, tr lng than d bo ca khu vc
kho st t Khoi Chu n ng Hng (Thi Bnh) v n su 1.000 mt
khong 28,7 t tn.
Than bn: Cc m than bn phn b kh rng v u khp trong c nc
vi gn 200 im. min Bc, cc m thng l loi m va v nh, cc m
than bn ln tp trung cc tnh ng bng Nam B (U Minh). Ti nguyn d
bo than bn khong 1 t tn nhng khai thc kh khn. Tr lng tm kim
thm d (cp C1+C2) khong 348 triu tn.
Tng hp tr lng than c tm kim kho st thm d nh gi
tr lng tnh n 01/01/2005 c trnh by bng di y:
Bng : Tr lng than Vit Nam nghn tn
Tr lng than a cht

Tn khu vc
Tng

A+B+C

A+B

5882885

4918691
100.0%

378648
7.70%

2141991 2398051 964193

43.55% 48.75%

B than Qung Ninh

3863947

3411185

323194

1386155 1701836 452762

Than bn

235438

235438

128827

106611

Vng ni a

165109

165109

55454

91901

17755

Cc m than a phng

37434

18478

10238

8240

18956

Vng Khoi chu (din tch 80 km2)

1580956

1088481

524871

563610

492475

Cng cc chng loi than

Than antraxit

5845451

4900213

378648

3932738

3479975

335`804 1424580 1719590 452762

Than bitum

1580956

1088481

524871

563610

492475

Than nu

96319

96319

42844

53475

Than bn

235438

235438

128827

106611

3863947

3411185

323194

1386155 1701836 452762

100.00%

9.47%

40.64%

49.89%

Tng cng ton quc

Cng b than Qung Ninh (Than

antraxit)

C1

C2

2131753 2389811 945237

Vng Hn Gai

754926

723323

55686

232473

435164

31603

Vng Ung B

1346279

1252578

17309

444107

791163

93701

Vng Cm Ph

1762742

1435284

250199

709575

475509

327458

Ngun: Trung tm T vn m v Cng Nghip-TVN, 2005

2. Tr lng v tim nng ti nguyn du kh:

Kt qu cng tc tm kim thm d n thi im hin nay cho thy:
Tng tr lng v tim nng du kh ton thm lc a khong 3,3 -4,4 t m3
du qui i, trong kh chim t l 55-60%.
Thm lc a pha Nam l khu vc tp trung nht cc hot ng thm d khai thc du kh ca Vit Nam, bao gm 3 b trm tch ln l: Cu Long, Nam
Cn Sn v Malay - Th Chu. Cho n nay, khu vc pha Nam vn ang l cc
trung tm cung cp du kh chnh ca c nc. Ngoi ra, b Sng Hng v Ph
Khnh cng ang c ch v tng lai cng c th s l nhng khu vc c
th cp kh, tuy nhin s lng khng ln.
Bng : Tr lng v tim nng du kh ca VN (tnh n cui 2004)
n v: Triu m3 du qui i
Tim
nng

Tr lng
pht
hin

khai
thc

Tr lng
cn li

Ghi ch

Sng Hng

560-700

250-270

0,5

250-270

Kh ch yu,
CO2: 60-90%

Ph Khnh
Cu Long
Nam Cn Sn
Malay-Th Chu
T Chnh Vng My

300-700

B/khu vc

Tng

Nc su

800-900

500

203

297

600-800

180

5,5

174,5

300-400

170-180

165-175

750-900
33104400

Du th ch yu

Nc su, xa b
214

3100-2180

Ngun: Vin Du Kh - PV, 2005

Tim nng du kh cha pht hin cn li tp trung ch yu vng nc

su, xa b (B Ph khnh, Vng T chnh-Vng My) v cc vng chng ln
nhy cm v chnh tr (cc b Hong Sa v Trng Sa).
3. Tr lng thu in v tim nng khai thc.
Theo nh gi ca chng trnh nghin cu cp nh nc KHCN 09:
Xy dng chin lc v chnh sch nng lng bn vng, tim nng k thut
thu in nc ta khong 123 t kWh, tng ng cng sut lp t khong
31000MW. Nu xem xt cc yu t kinh t, x hi v tc ng ti mi trng
th tim nng kinh t - k thut gim xung khong 75-80 t kWh vi cng sut
tng ng 18000-20000MW.

Bng : Tim nng kinh t-k thut thy in Vit Nam

Cng sut
(MW)

in nng
(TWh)

Mt
(MWh/km2)

T l, %

1 Sng L - Gm - Chy

1120

4.10

212

4.9%

2 Sng

6960

26.96

1400

32.3%

3 Sng M

890

3.37

74

4.0%

4 Sng C

520

2.09

147

2.5%

5 Sng V Gia -Thu Bn

1360

5.10

475

6.1%

6 Sng Tr Khc-Hng

480

2.13

531

2.6%

7 Sng Ba

670

2.7

150

3.2%

8 Sng S San

1980

9.36

700

11.2%

9 Sng Srpok

700

3.32

143

4.0%

10 Sng ng Nai

2870

11.64

436

14.0%

Cng 10 lu vc chnh

17550

70.77

423

84.8%

Ton b lnh th

20560

83.42

250

100%

Lu vc sng

Tr nng kinh t ca 10 lu vc sng chnh chim 85,9% tr nng kinh t

k thut khai thc trn ton lnh th. Qua s liu trn y nhn thy rng tng
tr lng kinh t k thut ca cc lu vc sng chnh l hn 17660MW, in
nng tng ng khong 72 t kWh, trong min Bc khong 9490MW
(54% tng cng sut trn cc lu vc chnh), tng ng khong 36,5 t kWh
(khong 54%), min Trung 5190MW (29,6%), tng ng trn 22,6 t kWh
(khong 27,1%) v min Nam 2870MW (16,4%) tng ng 11,6 t kWh
(khong 14%).
Mt phn khng nh trong tim nng thu in Vit Nam cn phi tnh
n l cc cng trnh thu in c nh (cng sut nh hn 30MW). Theo cc
nh gi quy hoch mi nht ca Tp on in lc Vit Nam, trn ton quc,
tim nng cng sut/ in nng ca cc cng trnh thu in nh c nh gi
khong trn 2300MW vi 8-9 t kWh. Tuy nhin mt s cng trnh v tr rt
kh khai thc, nm kh xa trung tm tiu th in, nn s khng pht trin ngay
trong giai on trc mt m ch c th xy dng ng b vi vic pht trin
kinh t x hi khu vc ti ch.
4. Ngun nng lng mi v ti to:
Nng lng a nhit: Vit Nam c hn 300 ngun nc khong nng c
nhit b mt t 30oC n 105oC, tp trung nhiu ti Ty Bc, Trung B. Tuy
nhin, do cha c cc nghin cu y , nn cha c cc nh gi ng v
tim nng v kh nng khai thc ngun a nhit. D bo n nm 2020 c th
pht trin khong 200 MW.
Nng lng mt tri: Vit Nam nm trong vng nhit i, s gi nng
trung bnh khong 2000-:-2500 gi/nm vi tng nng lng bc x mt tri
5

trung bnh khong 150kCal/cm2.nm, tim nng l thuyt c nh gi

khong 43,9 t tn du tng ng (TOE)/nm. Nng lng mt tri c s
dng cp in qua cc tm pin mt tri, cc thit b bin i quang nng
thnh nhit nng trong cc bnh un nc, sy nng sn...
Nng lng gi: Tim nng nng lng gi ca Vit Nam khng nh.
Phn b mt nng lng c nh gi vo khong 800-1400 kWh/m2.nm
ti cc hi o, 500-1000 kWh/m2.nm ti vng duyn hi min Trung, Ty
Nguyn v duyn hi Nam b, cc khu vc khc di 500kWh/m2.nm.
Nng lng sinh khi: Tim nng nng lng sinh khi bao gm g, ci,
rm rc, ph phm nng nghip... ca Vit Nam khong 43-46 triu TOE/nm,
trong khong 60% l nng lng g ci (26-27 triu TOE) v 40% nng
lng rm rc, ph phm nng nghip (17-19 triu TOE). Ring nng lng kh
sinh hc, tim nng l thuyt c nh gi s b khong 0,4 triu TOE/nm,
nhng tim nng c kh nng khai thc c ch chim khong 10%.
Tr lng Uranium: Vit Nam l quc gia c tim nng v Uranium
mc trung bnh trn th gii, tnh n thng 12/2002, tng tr lng, ti nguyn
Uranium ca Vit Nam d bo l 218.167 tn U3O8, trong cp C1 (RAR) l
113 tn, cp C2 (EAR-I) l 16.563 tn, cp P1 (EAR-II) l 15.153 tn v
186.338 tn cp P2+P3 (SR).
III. MC TIU V NH HNG PHT TRIN NGNH NNG
LNG VIT NAM N NM 2020, TM NHN N NM 2050
gp phn thc hin thng li cc mc tiu trong chin lc pht trin
kinh t - x hi ca ng, ngnh nng lng Vit Nam c xc nh r cc
mc tiu v nh hng pht trin c th sau y:
1. Mc tiu c th
- Phn u m bo cung cp nng lng cho nhu cu pht trin kinh
t - x hi: trong nng lng s cp nm 2010 t khong 47,5 - 49,5 triu
TOE (tn du quy i), n nm 2020 t khong 100 - 110 triu TOE, n nm
2025 khong 110 - 120 triu TOE v n nm 2050 khong 310 - 320 triu
TOE.
- Nng cao chnh xc trong vic nh gi tr lng cc ngun nng
lng s cp (than, du kh, thu in v u-ra-ni-um). M rng hp tc vi cc
nc trong khu vc v th gii trong vic tm kim, thm d, khai thc than,
du kh v cc dng nng lng khc nc ngoi b sung ngun nng lng
thiu ht trong nc.
- Pht trin ngun, li in, m bo p ng nhu cu in cho pht
trin kinh t - x hi, n nm 2010 tin cy cung cp ca ngun in l
99,7%; li in bo m tiu chun n-1.
6

- Pht trin cc nh my lc du, tng bc p ng nhu cu v cc

sn phm du trong nc, a tng cng sut cc nh my lc du ln khong
25 n 30 triu tn du th vo nm 2020.
- Bo m mc d tr chin lc xng du quc gia t 45 ngy tiu th
bnh qun vo nm 2010, t 60 ngy vo nm 2020 v t 90 ngy vo nm
2025.
- Phn u tng t l cc ngun nng lng mi v ti to ln khong 3%
tng nng lng thng mi s cp vo nm 2010; khong 5% vo nm 2020,
v khong 11% vo nm 2050.
- Hon thnh chng trnh nng lng nng thn, min ni. a s h
nng thn s dng nng lng thng mi un nu ln 50% vo nm 2010
v 80% vo nm 2020. n nm 2010 t 95% s h dn nng thn c in,
n nm 2020 hu ht s h dn nng thn c in.
- Xy dng cc mc tiu, tiu chun di hn v mi trng theo hng
thng nht vi tiu chun mi trng khu vc v th gii, ph hp vi iu
kin kinh t ca t nc. Kim sot v gim nh nhim mi trng trong cc
hot ng nng lng; n nm 2015 tt c cc cng trnh nng lng phi p
ng tiu chun v mi trng.
- Chuyn mnh cc ngnh in, than, du kh sang hot ng theo c ch
th trng cnh tranh c s iu tit ca Nh nc. Hnh thnh th trng bn l
in cnh tranh giai on sau nm 2022; hnh thnh th trng kinh doanh than,
du kh trong giai on t nay n nm 2015.
-.Tch cc chun b cc iu kin cn thit v ng b a t my in
ht nhn u tin vn hnh vo nm 2020, sau tng nhanh t trng in ht
nhn trong c cu nng lng quc gia. n nm 2050, nng lng in ht
nhn chim khong 15 - 20% tng tiu th nng lng thng mi ton quc.
- Tng cng hp tc quc t trong lnh vc nng lng. Phn u t
nm 2010-2015, thc hin lin kt li in khu vc (bng cp in p n 500
kV), t nm 2015 - 2020, thc hin lin kt h thng kh thin nhin khu vc.
2. nh hng pht trin
a) nh hng pht trin ngnh in
- m bo cung cp y in cho pht trin kinh t x hi ca t
nc. u tin xy dng cc nh my thu in mt cch hp l, ng thi pht
trin cc nh my nhit in s dng than v kh thin nhin. Khuyn khch
pht trin ngun in s dng nng lng mi, ti to.

- nh hng pht trin ngnh in theo hng a dng ho s hu. Tp

on in lc Vit Nam (EVN) chu trch nhim chnh trong vic pht trin
ngun in v h thng truyn ti ca quc gia. Cng b cng khai danh mc
cc d n u t khuyn khch cc thnh phn kinh t trong v ngoi nc tham
gia vo lnh vc pht in v phn phi in.
- a dng cc hnh thc u t trong pht trin ngun v li phn phi.
- Tip tc th im v tng bc m rng vic c phn ho cc nh my
in, cc n v phn phi in.
- Tch hot ng cng ch khi hot ng sn xut kinh doanh. Thc hin
tr gi cho cc hot ng in lc ti cc vng su, vng xa.
- M rng hp tc quc t v hi nhp quc t
- Tng bc hnh thnh v pht trin th trng in lc ti Vit Nam.
- Nghin cu pht trin nh my in ht nhn.
- m bo pht trin bn vng, gim thiu tc ng xu ti mi trng.
b) nh hng pht trin ngnh Than
- y mnh cng tc thm d nh gi tr lng than trn mc -300m, v
tm kim su t -400 -1100 ti vng than Qung Ninh.
- Khuyn khch cc a phng c cc im than u t thm d, khai
thc phc v cho nhu cu ti ch.
- Tranh th cc ngun vn thm d nh gi tr lng v nghin cu
kh nng khai thc vng than ng bng sng Hng.
- Pht trin ngnh Than n nh, bn vng, p ng nhu cu than cho nn
kinh t quc dn; bo m th trng tiu dng than trong nc n nh, dnh
mt phn hp l xut khu.
- Pht trin ngnh Than phi gn lin vi pht trin kinh t - x hi, du
lch, quc phng, an ninh v bo v mi trng sinh thi.
- Khuyn khch cc thnh phn kinh t tham gia u t khai thc, sng
tuyn v phn phi than. Xy dng l trnh c phn ho cc cng ty sn xut
than, tin ti hnh thnh th trng than.

c) nh hng pht trin ngnh Du kh

- Phn nh r gia chc nng qun l nh nc v qun l sn xut kinh
doanh ca cc c quan qun l v sn xut kinh doanh trong ngnh Du kh.
Tp trung chc nng qun l nh nc v du kh vo mt u mi.
- Xy dng c s php l cho cc hot ng ca ngnh du kh, c bit
quan tm n cc hot ng trung ngun v h ngun, trong c cc nhim v
quan trng ca qun l kinh t v k thut trong ngnh kh thin nhin nh: cp
php vn chuyn v phn phi kh, ph duyt gi kh, ph vn chuyn, phn
phi kh, cc quy nh v cc tiu chun k thut...
- Khuyn khch v y nhanh cng tc tm kim thm d du kh; Xy
dng mt h thng t chc r rng v hiu qu gim st hp ng v xt trao
thu cc l thm d; nh k xem xt, iu chnh cc iu khon v ti chnh
vic u t thm d, pht trin du kh Vit Nam cnh tranh c vi cc
nc khc.
- u tin pht trin, khai thc v s dng kh thin nhin. Khuyn khch
v u i cho cc nh u t thm d v khai thc cc m kh, c bit l cc
m kh c tr lng gii hn bin. a dng ho hnh thc u t, lin doanh
xy dng nh my in chy kh bn in cho li in quc gia.
- C chnh sch khuyn khch cc nh u t nc ngoi s dng cng
ngh cao khai thc cc m du, kh c tr lng gii hn bin.
- Chnh sch trong lnh vc ch bin du kh:
+ Khuyn khch cc nh u t nc ngoi tham gia lin doanh gp vn
xy dng cc nh my lc, ho du, c tham gia th trng phn phi sn
phm vi th phn nht nh.
+ Thu ht cc cng ty kinh doanh sn phm du kh tham gia lin doanh
pht trin cc nh my lc du gn sn xut vi tiu th, iu ho li nhun
gia sn xut v kinh doanh.
- Nh nc khuyn khch v bo h cho cc hot ng tm kim, thm d
v khai thc du kh nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip Vit Nam.
d) nh hng pht trin nng lng mi v ti to
- V iu tra quy hoch: cc dng nng lng mi v ti to cha c
nh gi y , bi vy cn c k hoch v u t thch ng cho iu tra b
sung cc s liu, tin ti quy hoch, phn vng cc dng nng lng ny c
k hoch u t, khai thc hp l. Lp cc t chc chuyn trch, thuc nhiu
thnh phn kinh t khc nhau iu tra, xy dng quy hoch, k hoch. Thc
9

10

hin tuyn truyn, t chc nghin cu, ch th v trin khai rng khp trn ton
lnh th.
- Tng cng tuyn truyn s dng cc ngun nng lng mi v ti to
cp cho cc khu vc vng su, vng xa, bin gii, hi o. Xy dng c ch
qun l duy tr v pht trin cc ngun in nhng khu vc ny.
- Lng ghp s dng nng lng mi v ti to vo chng trnh tit
kim nng lng v cc chng trnh mc tiu quc gia khc nh chng trnh
in kh ho nng thn, trng rng, xo i gim ngho, nc sch, VAC...
- Khuyn khch cc doanh nghip xy dng cc c s thch hp sn
xut, lp rp, sa cha cc loi thit b nng lng mi nh un nc nng,
thu in nh, ng c gi, hm kh sinh vt... nhng ni c iu kin. Hp
tc mua cng ngh ca cc nc pht trin lp rp cc thit b cng ngh
cao nh pin mt tri, in gi... tng bc lm ph hp v tin ti lp rp, ch
to trong nc.
- H tr u t cho cc chng trnh iu tra, nghin cu, ch th, xy
dng cc im in hnh s dng nng lng mi v ti to; u i thu nhp
thit b, cng ngh mi, thu sn xut, lu thng cc thit b; bo h quyn tc
gi cho cc pht minh, ci tin k thut c gi tr.
- Cho php cc c nhn, t chc kinh t trong v ngoi nc phi hp u
t khai thc ngun nng lng mi v ti to trn c s i bn cng c li.
Ti liu tham kho
1. Chin lc pht trin nng lng quc gia ca Vit Nam n nm

2020, tm nhn n nm 2050 ( c TTG ph duyt ti Q s

1855/Q-TTg ngy 27/12/2007).
2. Ti liu Quy hoch pht trin in lc quc gia giai on 2006-2015
c xt trin vng n 2025 ca t vn Vin Nng lng, 11 nm 2006.

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