Vn nn n cng Hy Lp v Italia: V u nn ni?

? 09:54:00 13/11/2011 D lun th gii tip tc quan tm c bit ti nhng bin ng ang din ra ti Hy Lp v Italia bi 2 quc gia n coi l "con n khng" ca khu vc ng tin chung chu u (Eurozone). Nhiu ngi ni rng, cuc khng hon cng ti chu u ang bao trm Hi ngh cp cao APEC 2011 din ra ti thnh ph Honolulu, bang Hawaii, M tun ny.
T 2 con n khng Hy Lp v Italia

Ngy 11/11, chnh ph lin hip ca tn Th tng Hy Lp Lucas Papademos gm 49 thnh vin tuyn th nhm chc. Cc thnh vi ph n t 3 ng: ng X hi PASOK, ng trung hu Dn ch mi v ng cc hu LAOS. B trng Ti chnh Evangelos Venize ngi chu trch nhim m phn vi cc ch n ca Hy Lp vn c tham gia ni cc v gi nguyn chc v.

Th tng Lucas Papademos tuyn b, u tin hng u ca chnh ph Lin hip l thc hin tho thun tn dng vi Lin minh chu Theo , tn chnh ph ng h gi cu tr tr gi 130 t euro (khong 176 t USD) km theo cc yu cu ca EU, tin hnh tng tuyn c kin din ra trong thng 2/2012.

Th tng Lucas Papademos khng nh, vi s on kt ton dn, Hy Lp s thnh cng. Tuy nhin, ti phin hp u tin din ra nga tn chnh ph lin hip tuyn th nhm chc, Ph Th tng kim B trng Ti chnh Evangelos Venizelos cnh bo v nhng kh lin minh 3 ng ang phi i mt.

Th tng c Angela Merkel v Tng thng Php Nicolas Sarkozy chc mng tn Th tng Lucas Papademos, trong cam kt v Paris s ng v pha Hy Lp. Tng c tin ni rng, cc ch n ang iu hnh Hy Lp. Vic Hy Lp phi bn u gi 1 t euro (1,3 USD) tri phiu kho bc k hn 26 tun ti tr cho vic gia hn i vi 2 t euro (khong 2,75 t USD) tri phiu o hn ngy 11/1 chng cho nhn nh ny.

Nhiu ngi coi nn kinh t Hy Lp o ut nn kh cu, nhng liu php shock kiu Hy Lap va thc hin khin khu vc Eurozone ch vng. c bit, nhm thanh tra ca IMF, EU v ECB s n Hy Lp u tun ti gim st kt qu chng trnh tht lng buc bn nc ny cam kt nhn cu tr.

Chu u mt mi vi nhng g ang din ra ti Italia khi li sut tri phiu ca nc ny tng ln. Tuy l nn kinh t ln th ba khu v Eurozone, nhng Italia li l th trng tri phiu chnh ph ln nht khu vc ny cng khon n tng ng 120% GDP.

Th tng Hy Lp Lucas Papademos.

Li sut tri phiu ca Italia tng mnh trong nhng tun gn y, vi li sut tri phiu k hn 10 nm tng 85 im c bn k t cu 9 v chm mc k lc 6,4% vo ngy 4/11. c bit, hin n cng ca Italia ln ti 1.900 t euro, gp 2,7 ln n cng ca Hy Lp, Ir B o Nha, 3 nc ang nhn cu tr cng li.

Ngn hng Trung ng chu u (ECB) v Qu tin t quc t (IMF) cnh bo s ngng mua tri phiu ca chnh ph nu Italia khng ci cch ti chnh nh ha. Tng Gim c IMF Christine Lagarde cho rng, k hoch ci cch ngn sch hin nay ca Italia thiu ti Christine Lagarde cng ku gi Hy Lp v Italia phi minh bch hn na vn chnh tr trong bi cnh cuc khng hong n cng ng ti t.

c bit, ECB tch cc mua vo tri phiu Italia trn th trng ngn vic tng chi ph vay ca nc ny, nhng s can thip k gip li sut tri phiu k hn 10 nm ca Italia gim t 7,46% xung 7,25%. Gii truyn thng cho rng, vic Thng v H vin Itali qua d tho lut nhm n nh tnh hnh kinh t t nc, trong c cc bin php chng khng hong cam kt vi lnh o EU ch nc ny mun thc hin chnh sch tht lng buc bng i li cc khon tr gip ti chnh.

Gii truyn thng a tin, Th tng Silvio Berlusconi c th t chc vo cui ngy 12/11 (theo gi a phng) m ng cho vi lp chnh ph lm thi do cu y vin chu u Mario Monti ng u. c bit, ti 2/11, tuy chp nhn ct gim ngn sch nhng n Italia khng thng qua vic cng b sc lnh thc hin ci cch nn phi b phiu tn nhim ti Quc hi.

Italia c coi l quc gia b khng hong n cng nng n nht v EU lin tc yu cu chnh ph nc ny phi tng cng ct gim c khi ln su thm vo cuc khng hong n cng. Hn 1 thng trc (12/10), Tng thng Italia Giorgio Napolitano tng nhn mnh, T v Ch tch H vin phi c trch nhim a ra cu tr li c th tin tng v kh nng iu hnh v m bo vic thc hin cc bin p khng th tr hon.

Tuyn b ny c a ra ch mt ngy sau khi k hoch ngn sch ln u nm 2012 ca lin minh trung hu ca Th tng Silvio B khng c thng qua ti H vin. Trc (24/10), Th tng Silvio Berlusconi tng trn an cc i tc chu u khng nn lo ngi v cng ca nc ny. Tng thng Php Nicolas Sarkozy tng tuyn b, trng hp ca Italia khc hon ton so vi Hy Lp v ng Silvio Berlusconi bit r s nghi ng khng nm cc bin php m ch thc hin cc bin php y nh th no.

Ti Hi ngh thng nh G20 Php, Th tng Silvio Berlusconi chp thun IMF gim st cc bin php ti chnh ca Italia ch chi xut h tr ti chnh ca IMF. Ch tch y ban chu u (EU) Jose Manuel Barroso cho bit, EU s tin hnh gim st cn trng phi on EU n Rome hm 11/11.

Th tng c Angela Merkel v Tng thng Php Nicolas Sarkozy.

Tnh ti thi im hin nay, chi ph i vay ca Italia cao k lc, ti 6,06% cho tri phiu k hn 10 nm so vi mc 5,86% ca 1 thng y cng l mc li sut tri phiu cao nht k t khi ng euro ra i nm 1999. iu ny cho thy nim tin ca nh u t i vi Ita st gim nghim trng.

Italia cn phi tr khong 300 t Euro (gn 420 t USD), khong 16% trong tng s n cng tr gi 1.900 t euro trong nm 2012. Tuy mc li sut cao nht, nhng Italia ch bn c 7,9 t euro tri phiu thay v 8,5 t euro nh d kin. Gii truyn thng tng a tin, kh Eurozone khng c k hoch h tr ti chnh cho Italia cho d chi ph vay ca nn kinh t ln th 3 chu u ti mc bt n.

Cch y khng lu Hng Standard & Poor's tng h xp hng ca 24 ngn hng v t chc ti chnh Italia do nhng cng thng trn th v trin vng tng trng kinh t thp. Gii chuyn mn cho bit, vi gi vng 1.764 USD/ounce, lng vng Italia nm gi tnh n h 10 c gi tr khong 141 t USD. Theo bo co thng 10 ca Hi ng Vng Th gii (WGC), lng vng nm gi ca Ngn hng Tru Italia hin l 2.451,8 tn, ng th 4 th gii sau M, c v IMF. n nhng cnh bo

Ngy 11/11, IMF cnh bo cc nn kinh t pht trin c th quay tr li suy thoi nu gii hoch nh chnh sch khng hnh ng kh hn nhm nht tr v cc chnh sch thc y tng trng. IMF cho rng, chnh sch km hiu qu v ri rc gp phn lm trm trn tnh trng bt n, mt nim tin v cng thng cao trn th trng ti chnh. IMF cng ku gi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch khu vc Eu cn a ra bc tranh r rng v gii php i ph vi cuc khng hong n chu lc ny.

Tng Gim c IMF Christine Lagarde tng cnh bo, nn kinh t th gii khng nhng ri vo giai on nguy him v khng n nh ang tri qua cuc khng hong lng tin tp th v nu khng hnh ng tp th khn cp, th gii c th ri vo vng xoy suy thoi, nh ti chnh vi tng trng thp v tht nghip cao.

B Christine Lagarde cng cho rng, trin vng ca kinh t th gii xu i v s yu km ti nhng nn kinh t tin tin bt u tc c nhng nn kinh t mi ni. Trc (3-11), Tng Gim c IMF Christine Lagarde cng b chng trnh gim thiu cc nguy c kinh t ton cu. Chng trnh ny s tp trung vo cc lnh vc trng tm nh cung cp t vn chnh sch v cc gii php hp tc cng n nh kinh t ton cu.

B Christine Lagarde nhn mnh, chng trnh hnh ng mi ca IMF phn nh nhu cu cp bch phi dnh u tin cho vic h tr n phn ng chng khng hong mang li hiu qu. Chng trnh mi ca IMF s tp trung vo cc lnh vc trng tm nh cung cp t v sch v cc gii php hp tc tng cng n nh kinh t ton cu.

Gii chuyn mn kh quan tm ti tuyn b ca Gio s Carl Christian von Weizsacker: gii quyt cuc khng hong n cng hin u cn kch thch tng trng ch khng phi tht lng buc bng. Nhng mi quan tm ca Php v c, tr ct ca EU cng nh kh Eurozone thc s khin d lun khng th bng quan.

Theo , c v Php ang tho lun v cuc ci cch trit ca EU lin quan ti vic thit lp mt khu vc Eurozone nh hn v h hn. Gii truyn thng a tin, ngay ti Hi ngh thng nh Brussels, B hm 23/10, mt s nh lnh o EU cp ti tng la vc Eurozone v nu nhng chia r ny khng c gii quyt, khu vc Eurozone chc chn s i mt vi nguy c sp sau 12 nm thnh.

Tng thng Php Nicolas Sarkozy a ra xut v mt chu u hai tc , theo tc tng trng ca 17 nc thnh vin khu Eurozone lun cao hn so vi tc tng trng chung ca 27 quc gia trong EU. Th tng c Angela Merkel cho rng, cn thay c EU do tnh hnh hin nay qu bi t, i hi phi c s t ph.

Trc , b Angela Merkel tng tuyn b, gii quyt khng hong n khu vc Eurozone s mt t nht 10 nm hon thnh v tt c gia thnh vin trong khu vc Eurozone u phi tch cc lm vic hon thnh cng vic ca mnh. Tuy nhin, cng c mt s nh ki nhng g chu u v mt s t chc ti chnh th gii tin hnh thi gian qua ti khu vc Eurozone ch l n lc mang tnh chp v, kh bn

Ngoi ra, Ty Ban Nha cng l ni lo mi ca khu vc Eurozone sau khi nc ny b Standard & Poor's h mc tn nhim tn dng t A AA- hm 14-10. T Le Figaro thm ch cn cho rng, cng quc kinh t th t chu u cn lu mi thot khi vng ly n cng.

Ngy 11/10, S&P thng bo h bc tn nhim ca 10 t chc ti chnh Ty Ban Nha, trong c hai ngn hng ln nht nc l Banco Santander v Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Tng t, Fitch cng ct gim xp hng tn nhim ca 6 ngn hng Ty Ban N khi h bc tn nhim ca nc ny.

D lun kh bt ng khi Nga tuyn b, sn sng mua n ca Chnh ph Ty Ban Nha nu cc nc thnh vin khu vc Eurozone c ch vt qua cuc khng hong n. Nga hin l nc c d tr ngoi t ln th ba th gii vi tng tr gi 517 t USD. EU tng ph duyt USD h tr vn cho 3 ngn hng Ty Ban Nha l NCG Banco, Catalunya Banc v Unnim Banc.

Gii ti chnh cho rng, vi 3.200 t USD d tr ngoi hi, Trung Quc tha sc ti tr cho qu EFSF, nhng d tha tin bc khng p do Bc Kinh cu khu vc Eurozone. Trung Quc nhiu ln by t, ch mun b tin vo cc khon u t an ton.

u t vo tri phiu chnh ph khc so vi u t vo nhng lnh vc c th nh nh my, c s h tng Hn na, thi gian gn y ph Trung Quc phi can thip cng c cc ngn hng trong nc, i tng b nhiu nh u t lo s l ang hot ng da trn khon n xu. 10 ngn hng ln, nhng trong tnh trng m yu nht chu u. Th nht l RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) c tr s ti Edinburgh, Anh, vn thiu ht: 19,42 t euro, h s CAR: 6,2%. Tip n l Deutsche Bank c tr s ti Frankfurt, c, vn thiu ht: 13,58 t euro, h s CAR: 6,3%; BNP Paribas c tr s ti Paris, Php, vn thiu ht: 13,55 t euro, h s CAR: 7,1%; Societe Generale c tr s ti Paris, Php, vn thiu ht: 12,83 t USD, h s CAR: 6,1%; Barclays c tr s ti London, Anh, vn thiu ht: 12,78 t euro, h s CAR: 7,1%; UniCredit c tr s ti Rome, Italia, vn thiu ht: 11,96 t euro; h s CAR: 6,6%; BPCE c tr s ti Paris, Php, vn thiu ht: 12,61 t euro; h s CAR: 6,5%; Commerzbank c tr s ti Frankfurt, c, vn thiu ht: 11,32 t euro, h s CAR: 5,4%; Bankia c tr s ti Madrid, Ty Ban Nha, vn thiu ht: 7,75 t euro, h s CAR: 5,4%. Cui cng l Ngn hng Hy Lp c tr s ti Athens, vn thiu ht: 7,58 t euro, h s CAR: -0,8%.

Sng kin i mi "Nhp p ton cu" ra i sau cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu 2008-2009 v c Lin hp quc thc y s gip lnh o cc nc trn th gii nhn thc r tc ng ca khng hong khi cn ang tim n, gip hnh ng kp thi hng cc tin b pht trin ng hng, bo v cc thnh tu pht trin. Sng kin ny ng vai tr nh phng thc nghim i mi, tp hp cc tri thc v k nng t bn trong cng nh bn ngoi Lin hp quc cc tin b mi nht trong khoa hc d liu v cng ngh c th h tr cc nh lnh o hoch nh chnh sch v phn ng hiu qu trc cc tc ng ca cc cuc khng hong kinh t - x hi. Cng c v cng ngh mi ny s b sung cho cc h thng hin hnh ang c Lin hp quc s dng gim st khng hong v theo di s pht trin ton cu. Hng MF Global Holdings va sa thi ton b nhn vin mi gii (1.066 ngi) sau 10 ngy np n xin bo h ph sn bt chp s phn ng ca d lun. Tnh ti thi im ny, MF Global Holdings l nn nhn M ln nht ca khng hong n cng chu u v cng l v ph sn ln th 7 v gi tr ti sn trong lch s nc M. Hng Standard & Poor's cho bit, mt li k thut khng lin quan n vic xp hng tn dng Php l nguyn nhn ca tin nhn c gi i khin th trng bin ng do thng bo "Php b h xp hng". Vic h xp hng tn dng AAA ca Php nh hng ti xp hng ca Qu EFSF ang h tr cho cc nc thnh vin ca khu vc Eurozone nh Hy Lp, Ireland v B o Nha. B trng Ti chnh Php Francois Baroin yu cu cc nh qun l th trng ti Php v chu u iu tra nguyn nhn v hu qu ca sai st ny