S PERT

1 Gii thiu chung v s Pert

Trong cc phng php s mng th phng php PERT c nhiu ngi bit n hn c PERT c ngha l, ki thut c lng v kim tra d n (Progtam Evaluation and Review Techmque). Nhung PERT c coi nhu ng ngha vi phuong php s mng l do sau: - Trc ht l kt qu ng ch khi M ngi ta s dng PERT iu khin vic xy dng h thng tn la Polaris vo nm 1958 rt ngn thi gian xy dng t 5 5 nm xung cn 3 nm. Sau PERT c ph bin rt nhanh chng sang cc lnh vc khc trong nn kinh t quc dn M. V vy PERT c ngi ta ch v bit n nhiu hn vi thi quen gi PERT l phng php s mng Thc t, cc phng php CPM v PERT c pht trin gn nh ng thi v PERT ch l mt trong cc phng php s mng. Trn c s xem thi hn hon thnh mi cng vic khng i (tij = const) . Tht ra trong thc t xy dng thng gp rt nhiu yu t ngu nhin tc ng (iu kin v thi tit, vic cung cp nguyn vt liu, thit b...). V vy, thi hn hon thnh cc cng vic nhiu khi khng c nh (tij). V d : Khi cn ng mt h thng cc gia c nn ca mt ta nh, ngi iu khin thi cng d tnh lm trong 1 thng. C khi do chun b cc mt tt, cng tc tin hnh trong thi tit thun li, nn thi gian ch ht 20 ngy. Nhng khi gp kh khn v thi tit, v dng c. . . thi gian hon thnh l 35 ngy, mt nhiu thi gian hn k hoch d tnh. Nh vy vn c t ra l: Phi x l tnh trng khng n nh v thi gian nh th no rt ra c nhng kt lun ng tin cy v c th s dng c trong thc t thi cng. Mun gii quyt vn ny c th vn dng cc phng php ca l thuyt xc sut thng k, nghin cu PERT v cng l mt u im ni bt trong cc u im ca phng php PERT. i vi phng php CPM th s mng l mt m hnh xc nh. Cn phng php PERT li a yu t khng xc nh (hay cn gi l yu t ngu nhin) vo, khi c lng thi gian thc hin cc cng vic v thi gian hon thnh d n ; do n rt ph hp vi nhng trng hp, nhng s liu ban u v cc cng vic ang c nghin cu thc hin cha c nh mc. Chng ta s nghin cu nhng im khc bit ca phng php PERT vi CPM, cn nhng vn c bn v quy tc lp mng, tnh ton thi gian... cng ging nh CPM nn khng nhc li. 2 Cc thng s thi gian trong s Pert

Mi cng vic thng c mt nh mc thi gian thc hin da trn cng ngh v ti nguyn s dng (thit b, nguyn liu, lao ng...). Cng c nhng cng vic cha c nh mc thi gian, chng hn nhng cng vic thuc lnh vc nghin cu, th nghim, ch to, sn xut n u, hoc quy cch sn phm thay i..., do kh xc nh c thi gian thc hin cc cng vic.

Thi gian d kin hon thnh cng vic t(ij) ca d n thng l c lng. Thc t thi gian thc hin cc cng vic khng hon ton ng bng thi gian d kin, cng c khi chng ln hn, cng c lc li nh hn thi gian d kin. Ch ngi no quen lm mt loi cng vic th vi kinh nghim v kh nng ring mi d kin ng n c thi gian ny cho chnh mnh. Vy y vn l mt s c lng thi gian theo ch quan ca con ngi. . Trong s mng PERT (Prject Evaluation and Review Technique) cc thi gian cng vic c coi l nhng i lng ngu nhin, mang tnh xc sut; ngi ta khng ch c lng mt thi gian thc hin eho mi cng vic, m l ba loi thi gian nh sau: Thi gian thun li l thi gian ngn nht hon thnh cng vic trong cc iu kin thun li nht. Thi gian bnh thng l thi gian thng t c khi cng vic c thc hin nhiu ln. Thi gian bt li l thi gian di nht, v phi thc hin cng vic trong hon cnh kh khn nht. Do tnh bt n nh ca thi gian thc hin cc cng vic nn ngi ta din t chng bng mt phn phi xc sut. Loi phn phi xc sut thng s dng m t thi gian ca cc cng vic l phn phi b ta. Vi cc l do sau: 12s trung bnh ca phn phi b ta xp x bng ba thi gian c lng trn Phn phi b ta l mt phn phi lin tc, khng c hnh dng nht nh (nh hnh dng ci chung ca phn phi chun), hnh dng n mo lch ty theo cc thi gian c lng (hnh 12). iu ny c li v thc ra ta khng bit g v hnh dng ca phn phi thi gian ca cc cng vic trong mt d n. Ngi ta nghim thy nhng loi phn phi khc u khng chnh xc bng phn phi b ta trong phn tch s mng.

3-

H.12

Phn b xc sut ca thi gian cng vic theo phn b

Ba thi gian dng tnh c s trung bnh v phng sai ca phn phi b ta, dc k hiu l: ambthi gian thun li; cn k hiu l tmin thi gian bnh thng; cn k hiu l tbt thi gian bt li; cn k hiu l tmax

Tr m c khi gn gn a hn tr b, v ngc li. inh ngha: Thi gian k vng to l thi gian trung bnh thc hin cng vic; chung quanh tr tp hp nhiu tr s khc ca i lng ngu nhin ny. Thi gian k vng c tnh bng cng thc:

Tr to c th ln hn, bng hoc nh hn tr m nhng d trong trng hp no th ng thng gc vi trc thi gian im to cng phn chia din tch di ng cong phn phi xc sut ra lm hai phn bng nhau (s1 = s2) Tri to cng cha th hin y thi gian thc hin cng vic, ta cn cn xt phn tn hay l bin ng ca thi gian ny. bin ng ny th hin bng on di t a n b ca ng cong phn phi (hnh 13). on ny cng ln th bin ng cng ln v

ngc li. Chng hn ng cong a1Mbl c quy m ln hn ng cong aMb, nn bin ng ca n ln hn.

H 13

bin ng ca thi gian to

Phng sai 2 tnh theo Cng thc:

Gi th hai cng vic A v B c nhng s liu v thi gian hon thnh nh sau:

A: 3; 5; 13 ngy B: 2; 6; 10 ngy

Thi gian k vng hon thnh hai cng vic ny l: ngy

ngy

Nhng bin ng ca thi gian k vng hon .thnh cng vic A ln hn ca thi gian hon thnh cng vic B, v:

= 2.76

= 1.78

bin ng ca thi gian thc hin tng cng vic cng ln th bin ng ca thi gian hon thnh d n cng ln theo, v s phn tn ca cc thi im xy ra cc s kin s c'ng dn li khi i t s kin u n s kin cui trn mng. Gi th thi gian ca mi cng vic trong d n xy ng nh xng c c inh bng ba tri s (a, m, b) nh nu trong bng 10-l. 3 Xc sut hon thnh d n

Ch - bng 2 ta c lng ba tr thi gian a, m, b ca mi cng.vic sao cho thi gian k vng to (lj) gn bng thi gian d kin mc 3. Thi gian k vng rt ra t ba tr c lng trn c coi nh l mt c lng n tr v nh vy l php o bin ng ca thi gian thc hin cc cng vic gia nhp vo s mng ny ri. V d: Xt mt s mng cho bi hnh di y

Cc gi tr a, m, b c cho bng di y

Bang 2:

Gi tr gn ng ca hm phn phI xc xut

Thi gian d n bng tng cc thi gian ca cc cng tc gng C, D v G (xem biu H.13). Thi gian hon thnh d n ny cng l thi gian sm xy ra s kin (7): S(7) = 66 Khi cho bit thi gian k vng hon thnh mi cng vic to (ij) th ta tnh c thi gian k vng hon thnh d n, l To = 66 ngy By gi ta li mun o bin ng ca tr 66 ngy, ngha l mun bit lch chun (to) hay phng sai 2 (To) ca n. Ta tm cch xc nh phng sai 2(7) ca s kin . Theo l thuyt xc sut th: Phn phi ca tng cc bin ngu nhin c dng phn phi chun S trung bnh ca phn phi bng tng cc s trung bnh ca cc bin ngu nhin. Phng sai ca phn phi bng tng cc phng sai ca cc thnh phn.

Thi gian trung bnh ca d n l: S(7) = 14 + 16 + 36 = 66 Phng sai ca thi gian d n l: 2(7) = 4 + 16 + 16 = 36 lch chun ca thi gian d n l: (7) =6 Chiu di ng gng C-D-G nm trong khong 66+6 Cu hi: C th tnh c xc sut hon thnh d n mt thiim nh trc c khng Chng hn, xc sut hon thnh d n ny trong 75 ngy l bao nhiu phn trn Xc sut hon thnh d n vo thi im S(7) = 75 l phn din tch gch cho trong hnh H.14.

H.14

Phn b xc sut hon thnh d n trong 75 ngy

Mun tnh c th xc sut hon thnh d n trong 75 ngy cn s dng bng cc xc sut chun cng dn, xem Bang 2. Bng ny cho bit din tch bn di ng cong phn phi chun vi s trung bnh bng khng v lch chun bng 1.

Cch s dng bng nh sau (xem bng 2 bn trn): Trong mt phn phi chun, cn tm xc sut mt tr ngu nhin Z no , v pha trc s trung bnh (tc s khng ta ). Tr Z y l hiu gia thi hn 75 v s trung bnh 66, c chia cho lch chun:

Vy tr 75 v pha trc s trung bnh (hnh 11-1) mt khong bng 1,5 lch chun (. Tra bng (ph lc l) th c bit: s ngu nhin Z, nh hn hay bng l,5(, v pha trc s trung bnh, ng vi din tch gch cho, l 0,9332. Tr ]i cu hi nu trn nh sau: Nu thi gian d n c n nh bi cc cng vic C, D v G, th xc sut hon thnh d n trong 75 ngy l 93%. Nhn xt. Trong trng hp ny ta tha nhn ng gng C-D-G n nh ra thi gian d n. Nhng c th c trng hp ng C-D-G khng phi l ng n nh ra thi gian ng gng c ch.

Hy xt ng A-E-I (12 + 28 + 23 = 63 ngy) vi thi gian trung bnh l:

Phng sai 1,78 + 40,11 + 2,78 = 44,37 ngy

lch chun :

Chiu di ng A-E-I nm trong khong

Vy c th xy ra trng hp ng A - E - I di hn ng C- D - G. Chng hn, ng A-E-I c th i hn 64 ngy, trong khi ng C - D - G c th ngn hn 64 ngy .

Hnh 11-2 trnh by kh nng .

Hnh. 15 Phn phi xc sut thi gian ca ng C-D-G v ng A-E-I.

Vy r rng l c th xy ra trng hp mt con ng khng phi l ng gng, li tr thnh mt ng gng tht s v n nh ra thi gian d n. 4 Phng sai ca thi im hon thnh cng vic

Thi gian d n l thi im xy ra sm nht s kin cui cng S(m). Ta cng c th tnh phng sai ca cc s kin khc. Quy tc: Phng sai 2(j) ca thi im xy ra s kin (j) bng phng sai 2(i) ca s kin (i) ng trc, cng vi phng sai 2(ij) ca cng vic (i,j) ni hai s kin S kin (1) c phng sai: 2(1)= 0 S kin (2) c: S(2) = S(1) + t(1,2) = 0 + 12 = 12 2(2) = 2(1) + 2(1,2) S kin (3) c: 2(3) = 2(1) + 2(1,3) - 0 + 4 = 4 . S kin (4) Cn xem li bit cng vic no (B hay D) n nh ra S(4) = 30 Chnh cng vic D v s kin (3) cho ta: S(4) = 14 + 16 = 30 Vy dng 2(3) v 2(3,4) tnh: 2(4) = 2(3) + 2(3,4) = 4 + 16 = 20

C ngha l thi im xy ra s kin (4) tun theo phn phi chun vi s trung bnh l 30 ngy v phng sai l 20 ngy. By gi ta th tnh xc sut xy ra s kin (4) vo ngy th 35. Trc tin, tnh:

Tra "Bng xc sut cng dn" ca bng 2, ta c xc sut ca Z= 1,12, l 0,8686 C tip tc lm nh vy ta tnh c ht cc 2(j) ca cc s kin, v trnh by trong hnh 16. Ch : Phng sai ca s kin cui cng 2(7) = 36, bng phng sai m ta tnh c mc trn Tng t nh trn, phng sai ca thi im hon thnh cng vic bng phng sai ca s kin ng trc cng vic , cng vi phng sai ca thi gian thc hin cng vic. Kt qu tnh ton cho mi cng vic trnh by trong bng 3