Chng 5:

PHN TCH PHNG N THEO T S CHI PH-LI CH

& CC PHNG PHP PHN TCH KHC
Lp v Phn tch d n

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NI DUNG
1. T s li ch chi ph B/C 2. So snh cc phng n theo B/C 3. So snh p/p phn tch theo PW, IRR v B/C 4. Phn tch im ha vn 5. Thi gian b vn ca d n u t

T S LI CH CHI PH

T S LI CH CHI PH (B/C): t s gi tr tng ng li ch trn gi tr tng ng chi ph ca d n. Gi tr tng ng c th l PW, AW, FW. C 2 cch biu th thng dng v t s B/C: T s B/C thng: chi ph hng nm c b sung vo phn chi ph mu s T s B/C sa i: chi ph hng nm c trch ra trc tip t li ch hng nm t s

T S LI CH CHI PH
T S B/C THNG:
B/C PW (B) PW (CR O M) B/C B CR O M

T S B/C SA I:
B/C PW [B - (O M)] PW (CR) B/C B - (O M) CR

B:
O:

li ch (thu nhp) hng nm

chi ph vn hnh hng nm

M:

chi ph bo hnh hng nm

CR: chi ph CR

T S LI CH CHI PH

Hai cch tnh s cho 2 gi tr B/C khc nhau nhng vn cho ra cng 1 kt lun khi so snh 2 phng n u t. Khi sp hng cc phng n th 2 cch tnh cng c th dn n kt lun khc nhau. Mt d n c lp c xem l ng gi v mt kinh t khi t s B/C 1 Khi so snh cc d n loi tr nhau th phi p dng phn tch theo gia s.

T S LI CH CHI PH

LI CH (BENEFITS): mi li (advantages), biu th bng tin, i vi ch DA hoc ngi c hng li.

TN THT (DISBENEFITS): bt li (disadvantages) biu th bng tin) i vi ch DA hoc ngi c hng li.
LI CH RNG = LI CH TN THT CHI PH (COSTS): gi tr c tnh v gi xy dng (vn hnh, bo qun) tr i cc gi tr cn li Khng phi li ch, tn tht no cng c th biu th bng tin

T S LI CH CHI PH
My tin A
Tui th (nm) u t ban u Thu nhp hng nm Chi ph hng nm Gi tr cn li MARR (%) 5 10 5 2,2 2 8% n v: triu ng

10(A/P,8%, 5) - 2(A/F,8%,5) 2,164 tr B 5 B/C 1,146 CR O M 2,164 2,2 B/C B - (O M) 5 - 2,2 B/C 1,294 CR 2,164

CR

>1

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

Trng hp 1:

BIT THU NHP, CHI PH CA TNG PHNG N

My tin A
Tui th (nm) u t ban u Thu nhp hng nm Chi ph hng nm Gi tr cn li MARR (%) 5 10 5 2,2 2 8% n v: triu ng

My tin B
10 15 7 4,3 0

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

NGUYN TC: 1. Ch so snh PA c u t ban u nh hn vi PA c u t ban u ln hn khi PA c u t ban u nh hn l ng gi.

2. Chn PA c u t ban u ln hn nu gia s vn u t ban u l ng gi, ngha l B/C () 1.

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

1. My tin A (PA c u t ban u nh hn) c t s B/C > 1 nn l phng n ng gi.

2. T s B/C ca gia s vn u t:
B O CR (7 5) (4,3 2,2) 15(A/P,8%, 10) 2,164

B/C (A

B)

1,408

B/C () < 1 gia s u t l khng ng gi

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

C trng hp no t s B/C () > 1 th phng n khng ng gi cn t s B/C () < 1 th phng n li ng gi khng?
li ch
+ 100

chi ph
+ 200

B/C ()
+ 0,5

Kt lun
khng ng gi

+ 100
+ 100 0 - 100 - 100

+ 50
- 50 - 50 - 200 - 50

+ 2,0
- 2,0 0,0 + 0,5 + 2,0

ng gi
ng gi ng gi

ng gi
khng ng gi

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

Trng hp 2:

CC PHNG N C THU NHP GING NHAU

My nn kh A
Tui th (nm) u t ban u Chi ph hng nm Gi tr cn li MARR (%) 6 3 2 0,5 15% n v: triu ng * Ghi ch: 2 my nn kh c cng nng sut v cht lng

My nn kh B
9 4 1,6 0

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

NGUYN TC: 1. Ta ch c th tnh t s B/C cho gia s u t m khng th tnh cho tng PA ring r nu khng bit li ch c th ca tng PA

2. PA c u t ban u nh nht c gi thit l ng gi (hoc cn thit).

3. Chn PA c u t ban u ln hn nu gia s vn u t ban u l ng gi, ngha l B/C () 1.

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

1. My nn kh A (PA c u t ban u nh hn) c gi thit l ng gi.

2. T s B/C ca gia s vn u t:
B/C (A B) B O CR
M

0 (1,6 2) 3,81 4(A/P,15%, 9) [3(A/P,15% ,6) 0,5(A/F,15 %,6)]

B/C () > 1 gia s u t l ng gi

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

Trng hp 3:

SO SNH NHIU PHNG N

A
u t ban u Thu nhp rng hng nm Gi tr cn li MARR 1.000 150 1.000

B
1.500 375 1.500

C
2.500 500 2.500 18%

D
4.000 925 4.000

E
5.000 1.125 5.000

F
7.000 1.425 7.000

n v: triu ng

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

NGUYN TC: 1. Sp xp cc PA theo th t tng dn vn u t 2. Tnh t s B/C ca cc gia s vn u t B/C (). 3. Chn PA c u t ban u ln hn nu gia s vn u t ban u l ng gi, ngha l B/C () 1.

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

A
u t ban u Thu nhp rng hng nm Gi tr cn li B/C u t ban u CR 1.000 150 1.000 0,833

B
1.500 375 1.500 1,398

C
2.500 500 2.500 1,111

D
4.000 925 4.000 1,285

E
5.000 1.125 5.000 1,250

F
7.000 1.425 7.000 1,131

A
1.000 180

B
1.500 270

BC
1.000 180

BD
2.500 450

DE
1.000 180

EF
2.000 360

B B/C () Gia s l ng gi?

150 0,833 khng

375 1,389 c

125 0,694 khng

550 1,222 c

200 1,111 c

300 0,833 khng

SO SNH P/A THEO T S LI CH CHI PH

T s B/C(A) c xem l t s B/C ca gia s u t t phng n s khng ln A

V gia s u t B C khng ng gi nn D l phng n thay th so snh vi B ch khng phi vi C

Tuy B/C(F) > 1 nhng B/C(EF) < 1 nn F vn khng c chn E l phng n c u t ln nht m t s B/C ca gia s u t ln hn 1 la chn phng n E

SO SNH P/P PHN TCH THEO PW, IRR, B/C

PW, FW, AW
ng gi 0

IRR
MARR

B/C
1

ng gi nht Max PW, AW, FW

So snh theo gia s

So snh theo gia s

T s gia thu nhp v chi ph cng quy v 1 thi im no theo i%

Bn cht

Sut thu li (i%) Gi tr li nhun m ti li rng quy v 1 thi nhun rng quy v im no , ph 1 thi im no thuc vo i% bng 0

PHN TCH IM HA VN

IM HA VN (Break-even point): gi tr ca 1 bin s no (sn lng, s gi vn hnh, s nm lm vic,) lm cho chi ph ly k bng thu nhp ly k (khng xt n gi tr thi gian ca tin t) Tng chi ph: Tng thu nhp: im ha vn: TC = FC + VC = FC + v*Q TR = r*Q QBE = FC/(r v)

PHN TCH IM HA VN
TC,TR
(VN/nm)

TR TR
Cc i li nhun

TC

TC

L 0

Li Q 0

L o

Li

QBE

QBE1

Qo

QBE2

PHN TCH IM HA VN
SO SNH 2 P/A M CHI PH C TH BIU TH BNG

HM CA SN LNG
TC TC(A) TC(B) FC(B) FC(A) Sn lng yu cu > Q* (B) Sn lng yu cu < Q* (A)

Q*
0 Chn (A) Chn (B) Q

PHN TCH IM HA VN
V d 1: Mt doanh nghip sn xut m n lin c: Chi ph c nh: $40.000 / nm Chi ph bin i: $5 / sn phm Gi bn: $8 / sn phm Xc nh sn lng ha vn ca doanh nghip.

PHN TCH IM HA VN
V d 2: Cng ty ang xem xt 2 chic my A v B vi hm chi ph ca tng my nh sau: TC(A) = 150 + 5Q

TC(B) = 200 +3Q

Nu doanh nghip sn xut mc 50 n v sn phm th mua chic my no s c li hn?

THI GIAN B VN CA D N

THI GIAN B VN (Payback Period): s nm cn thit tng thu nhp rng hng nm hon li vn u t ban u.
Tp

- P: vn u t ban u

P
t 1

CFt

- CFt: dng tin t thi on t

- Tp: thi gian hon vn

Do phng php ny khng phn nh chnh xc hiu qu kinh t ca d n nn cc kt lun la chn phng n thng khng ph hp vi cc kt lun khi dng PW, IRR hay B/C

THI GIAN B VN CA D N
U IM
n gin Phn nh thi : thu hi vn u t trong thi k ngn hn th tt hn Thc o gn ng ca sut thu li trung bnh ca vn u t ban u

NHC IM
Khng tnh n gi tr ca tin t theo thi gian B qua nhng nh hng ca thu nhp sau thi k Tp Vic xc nh thi gian hon vn yu cu thng mang tnh ch quan

THI GIAN B VN CA D N
V d: So snh 2 phng n A v B theo phng php thi gian b vn bit dng tin rng hng nm ca tng phng n nh sau:
Nm 0 1 2 CFt (triu VN) A -1.000 300 250 B -1.000 100 300

3
4 5

450
500 500

300
300 1.500

THI GIAN B VN C CHIT KHU

THI GIAN B VN C CHIT KHU (Discounted Payback Period): s nm cn thit tng thu nhp rng hng nm hon li vn u t ban u vi mt mc thu li i% no .
Tp

0
Thu nhp rng u hng nm A

P
t 1

CFt (P/F, i%, t)

P A(P/A, i%, Tp)

THI GIAN B VN C CHIT KHU

V d: Cng ty ang cn nhc u t vo mt d n v c tnh cc dng tin lin quan n d n nh sau:
Nm 0
CF -100

Nm 1
60

Nm 2
70

Nm 3
90
v: tr

Cng ty c nn u t vo d n khng nu thi gian b vn yu cu l 2 nm v sut chit khu l 12%?

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