T Chn Cm y ti Cht lng Tng trng:

Nhng thch thc v c hi i vi vng BSCL ca Vit Nam

Cao Thng Bnh Ngn hng Th gii Din n Go Sc Trng, 11/2011

Nghin Cu
IPSARD, NIAPP, CLRRI, CRSRD,MDI (CTU), Agrifood, Monash Univ, WB, CIDA Kho st nng h v doanh nghip, phn tch thng k, nghin cu in hnh chui gi tr, m hnh ha cc ci cch kinh t Gip hon chnh cc chin lc da trn cc mc tiu hiu qu, cng bng v bn vng

Vit Nam: T thiu i ti sn c lng thc

Ton cnh: Sn xut la tng trng n nh
Paddy output (000 tons)
45000

Sn lng La v Din tch gieo trng, 1990 n 2010

Sown Area (000)

8000

40000

7500

35000

7000

30000

6500

25000

6000

20000

5500

15000

Din tch

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995trng 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 gieo 1996

Sn lng la go

5000

Sown Area (Mill Ha)

Paddy Output (000 Tons)

BSCL: Ngun tng sn lng v xut khu la go chnh

Cn i la go theo cac vung cua Vit Nam, 2009
Sn lng Sn lng Go la (Mill Tons) (Mill Tons) Whole Country 39.08 Mek Delta RRD N/S Central 20.52 6.94 6.25 21.13 11.07 3.75 3.38 Lng go tiu dng (Mill Tons) 13.54 3.33 2.99 2.86 Lng go di d (Mill Tons) 7.59 7.74 0.76 0.52

(triu tn)

H s sn lng /tiu dng 1.56 3.33 1.25 1.18

NE/NW
CH SE

3.05
0.99 1.33

1.65
0.54 0.72

1.64
0.74 1.97

0.01
-0.20 -1.25

1.01
0.72 0.37

Thng d la go c gii quyt thng qua XK

Tng thng d la go BSCL = Tng xut khu

22000

Paddy Production (000 tons)

21000 20000 19000

Rice Export (000 tons)

6500 6000 5500 5000 4500

18000 4000 17000 16000 15000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3500 3000 2500

Sn lng go BSCL MKD Paddy Production

XK go ca Vit Nam VN Rice Exports

Tnh cht hai mt xut hin vi thng d ngy cng tp trung vo Vnh ai la
400-750,000 tn/huyn; 250 400,000 tn/huyn

 v cc nng h c din tch ln hn

C khong 4 triu h trng la BSCL Phn ln bn la v mua go. Hu ht ngi trng la c din tch nh hn 1 ha sn xut ch cho h tiu dng. Ch mt phn nh nng dn (> 1ha) c th sn xut d tha bn. BSCL 2008 Ng v phn 1 2 3 4 5 Tt c Din tch t nng nghip trung bnh (Ha) 0.18 0.48 0.81 1.28 2.74 1.10 T trng trong cung go rng (%) 1.7 5.4 9.0 20.1 63.8 100.0

Khng c bng chng v vic ci thin cht lng xut khu go

Go c gi tr thp v cao: Vit Nam so vi cc nc xut khu go khc ($/MT 2010)
1100
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

Thailand Fragrant Pakistan Basmati

US California Medium

Thai Parboiled

Thail 25%

Vietnam 25%

Chn cm y nhng thnh tu pht trin mi t mt na

Foo Phat trin NT d Rura

La go

Envir onm ent

Secl Devel urity

opme nt

Tra ed

BSCL: Suy dinh dng trong khi thng d la go

T l thiu cn (di 5 tui) quc gia: 18.9%; ln 31,8% Tin gim suy dinh dng chm i hn trong 5 nm qua Gn vi ngho i hoc suy gim thu nhp, nhng ch n ngho dinh dng cn ph bin cc h thu nhp trung bnh SX nhiu go hn thng khng phi l gii php
BSCL: Khng c lin h r rng gia vic tng trng SX la v gim t l suy dinh dng. BSCL xp th 7/8 vng v gim S tr em trong 10 nm qua.

Gim s h c th sng c nh thu nhp t la go

Thu nhp ca nng dn t cc ngun khc nhau Kt qu kho st ca MDI nm 2009 da trn mu l 117 nng dn VND/ngi/thng (000)
Quy m sn xut Tng TN/ngi TN t la/ngi TN t cc nng sn khc/ ngi 84 10 72 6 Thu nhp t chn nui v nui thy sn/ngi 82 10 359 31 Thu nhp ngoi/phiNN theo u ngi 533 63 449 39

<1 ha 1 2 ha

TB % TB %

849 100 1,165 100

151 18 284 24

2.01 3 ha
>3 ha Tng

TB %
TB % TB %

1,901 100
1,933 100 1,312 100

658 35
1,296 67 535 41

26 1
10 0 56 4

728 38
88 5 209 16

490 26
540 28 512 39

Chui gi tr la go em li t Gi tr gia tng

1400

1200

Tn tht c tnh v Gi tr gia tng trongchui gi tr la goTriu $

35

30

Tl gi tr gia tng/Sn lng trong cc ngnh CN ch bin

1000

25

800

20

600

15

400

10

200

Physical and Quality Export Chain Value Losses Added

Domestic Chain Value Added

Rice

Fish

Sugar

Fruit and Vegetable

Rubber

Total losses $0.6 billion Total Profits $1.7 billion (30%)

Mt s c im ca chui gi tr la go Vit Nam

Ch yu xut khu gia chnh ph vi chnh ph, gi thp, thiu n nh, ch yu xut sang Chu Phi Rt nhiu nh xut khu, nhng 70% tp trung vo 10 n v ln nht, DNNN chim 75% Nng v hnh chnh, pha trn gia mc tiu thng mi v x hi Nng dn t c li t khi go tng gi Th trng go cht lng cao trong nc cha c ch nhiu.

Ti sao tng trng sn lng v xut khu khng tip tc ci thin sinh k cho phn ln ngi trng la BSCL?
Cc nhn t a phng/nng h
Quy m sn xut /sau thu hach qu nh nn khng c kh nng t c li ch kinh t S dng qu nhiu v khng hiu qu cc yu t u vo Chi ph u vo gia tng, ngy cng nhiu kh khn v lao ng Thiu kh nng qun l ri ro thi tit, th trng v ri ro khc

Cc nhn t chui cung ng

Chui cung ng qu nhiu tng, thiu iu phi Mc tn tht vt l cao Thiu khuyn khch/h tr nng cao cht lng sn phm Phn phi li nhun (v ri ro) khng cng bng Cnh tranh hn ch gia nhng ngi mua/xut khu Vit Nam ch yu nhm vo phn khc gi tr thp trong th trng go, phn ln cung cp cho cc chng trnh do nh nc nhp khu, cnh tranh bng gi thp.

Ch ph thc s ca Sn xut v Xut khu la go gi thp nhm vo s lng?

Chi ph tnh ton c
Ging + phn + thuc tr su + nhn cng Tn tht sau thu hoch v chi ph dch v Ch bin v ng gi Kho bi, vn chuyn v bo him Chi ph t gi 40-50% chi ph

Chi ph khng tnh ton c

Chi ph cho qun l h tng ti nguyn nc Thit hi i vi nui trng thy sn do cc bin php qun l nc Tc ng xu n mi trng do x dng nhiu thuc tr su/phn ha hc Kh thi nh knh Chi ph chnh ph h tr li sut cho cc cng ty go Chi ph c hi ca vic s dng t (nc, lao ng) khc

Mc thnh cng khc nhau i vi cc mc tiu chnh sch v la go khc nhau

Max (10)

Thay i u tin v la go trong mt nn kinh t trng thnh

Ngy trc Ngy nay
An ninh lng thc An ninh lng thc Mi trng Thng mi

Pht trin Nng thn

Sn c lng thc

Tng trng theo b rng

Tiu th go trn u ngi v tng tiu th ca VN bt u gim v nhiu kh nng s gim nhanh
Tiuth go trn u ngi chu (Kg/Nm
Myanmar Vit Nam 160 135
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Tiu th go v thu nhp tnh trn u ngi: TQ, Vit Nam, Malaysia, Thi Lan, v Philippines, 1995-2005

Philippines
Indonesia Trung Quc Hn Quc Malaysia n Nht Bn

128
104 95 88 80 77 45

1500
1000 500 0 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190

Cn cn la go tng lai: Vn an ton trong trng hp xu nht

Thng d go XK ('000 tn) nm 2030 theo cc kch bn ng vi cc din tch dnh ring lm t la khc nhau Surplus (000 tons)
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

KCH BN Consumption WCS: Yield + XU NHT: Nng sut + Tiu th

KCH BN XU: WSC: Yield Only Nng sut

Tc ng i vi nh hng trong tng lai

Sn lng t hn nhng gi tr nhiu hn: Chuyn t ch tiu s lng sang hiu qu kinh t v bn vng. To nhiu phc li cho ngi tiu dng v nng dn, s dng t t, nc, thuc tr su, tc ng mi trng v ri ro ti chnh t la go hn. Hin i ha chui gi tr la go hn l cc can thip mang tnh tnh th vo th trng: to iu kin cho t nhn u t, kt ni gia nng dn-doanh nghip, gim tn tht , tng cht lng/thng hiu, nh hng ngi tiu dng/th trng nh hng li vai tr ca Chnh ph: Tp trung vo gii quyt cc mc tiu mi trng v x hi v qun l ri ro, tch bch gia mc tiu thng mi v x hi Cn c cch tip cn a ngnh gii quyt vn dinh dng (suy dinh dng) v an ninh lng thc. Nhiu la go hn khng phi l gii php! Sc khe b m, cung cp nc sch, b sung dinh dng, mng li an sinh x hi, a dng ha sn xut. Lm sao gip cc nng h sn xut la c t hn 1 ha t thng qua a dng ha sn xut nng nghip hiu qu hn?

Chui gi tr la go: Tm nhn tin ti nm 2020

Lin kt gia cc nhm nng dn v cc doanh nghip p dng ng cc ging la, thc hnh canh tc c chng nhn, n nh gi c, ci thin kho bi, sy kh Hp tc cng-t nhn thc y cc cch sn xut la go bn vng Pht trin thng hiu, m rng th trng go cht lng cao trong nc Tip tc u t vo cc cng ngh ch bin tin tin, cc c s bo qun la go hiu qu v chi ph, cc h thng kim k qun l lng go tn kho. Hng ti thng mi xut khu c li nhun hn bao gm
Bn thng hiu cht lng la go bn vng n cc nc c thu nhp cao Bn go vi li th cnh tranh v tin cy Cung cp mt phn go gi thp cho cc chng trnh an sinh x hi cho cc nc

iu chnh Tm nhn cho Ngnh la go

Xin cm n!