1

TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc

Ch ng 12.
L THUY T X P HNG
2
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
N i dung
Gi i thi u
Cc chi ph c a dng ch
Cc c tnh c a h th ng x p hng
Cc m hnh x p hng
3
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
I. GI I THI U
Trong th c t chng ta th ng g p cc tnh
hu ng nh : khch hng x p hng ch tr c
qu y thu ngn c a c a hng; dng xe ph i
d ng l i tr c n ; MMTB h ng hc ang
ch c s a ch a. T t c cc tnh hu ng trn
u c i m gi ng nhau l h th ng ph i n m
trong tr ng thi ch i. Ch i l h qu c a
xc su t xu t hi n l ng khch hng n
c ph c v v cc ch s c a h th ng ph c
v .
4
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
I. GI I THI U
M c tiu nghin c u l thuy t x p hng l
ki m sot m t s c i m c a h th ng, thi t
l p m i quan h gi a s l ng khch hng
c ph c v v ch t l ng c ph c v .
Ch t l ng ph c v cng cao th ph c v c
cng nhi u khch hng. Tuy nhin xt v m t
kinh t th nh ng n v ph c v d th a s
khng mang l i l i ch.
5
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
I. GI I THI U
Cc thnh ph n c b n c a h th ng x p
hng l:
- L ng khch hng n
- Cc knh ph c v
- Dng ch .
6
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
II. CC CHI PH C A DNG CH
Mc ophuc vu
toi u
Mc ophuc vu
Chi ph
Chi ph phuc vu
Tong ph
Chi ph chi
7
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
III. CC C TNH C A H TH NG
X P HNG
1. Cc c tnh c a khch n
S l ng khch hng: v h n ho c h u h n
D ng khch hng n h th ng: L ng
khch n h th ng coi nh ng u nhin,
khng ph thu c vo th i gian v s l ng
khch hng n h th ng ph c v tr c .
Trong tr ng h p ny xc su t c a l ng
khch hng n c ph c v trong m t
kho ng th i gian l n, c xc nh theo
phn ph i xc su t Poisson:
8
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
Trong :
P(n)- xc su t c n khch hng n trong
m t n v th i gian;
n- s l ng khch hng n trong m t n v
th i gian;
- s l ng khch n trung bnh trong 1 n v
th i gian (ch s khch n).
e- c s logarit t nhin, e=2,7183.
!
) (
n
e
P
n
n

=
1. Cc c tnh c a khch n
9
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
V d : Quan st 5 pht th y c 15 ng i gh
vo m t i l B u i n. Tnh xc su t trong
1 pht c 4 ng i n i l B u i n .
Ta c:
n=4; =3 ( - s l ng khch n trung bnh
trong 1 n v th i gian =15/5)
Xc su t c 4 khch hng n trong 1 pht:
1680 , 0
! 4
3
!
4 3
) (
= = =

e
n
e
P
n
n

1. Cc c tnh c a khch n
10
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
Hnh vi c a khch n: H u h t cc
m hnh x p hng u gi s r ng cc
khch hng c tnh kin nh n, ch cho
n khi c ph c v v khng b i
gi a ch ng. Trn th c t , c nh ng
khch hng s b i khi th y hng di.
1. Cc c tnh c a khch n
11
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
2. Cc c tnh c a dng ch
Chi u di c a dng ch c th h u h n
ho c v h n;
Quy lu t x p hng l FIFO. Trong th c
t c nh ng ho t ng khng theo quy
lu t ny. V d nh cc b nh nhn c n
c p c u, trong siu th nh ng ng i
mua t h n 10 mn hng s i ra c ng
khc
12
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
3. Cc c tnh c a knh ph c v
H th ng m t knh, m t giai o n
H th ng m t knh, nhi u giai o n
H th ng nhi u knh, m t giai o n
H th ng nhi u knh, nhi u giai o n.
13
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
H th ng m t knh, m t giai o n
Dong ra
Dong vao
Kenh phuc vu
Xep hang
14
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
H th ng m t knh, nhi u giai o n
Dong ra
Dong vao
Xep hang
Kenh
phuc vu
giai oan 2
Kenh
phuc vu
giai oan 1
15
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
H th ng nhi u knh, m t giai o n
Dong ra
Dong vao
Kenh phuc vu1
Xep hang
Kenh phuc vu2
16
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
H th ng nhi u knh, nhi u giai o n
Dong ra
Dong vao
Kenh phuc vu1
gi ai oan 1
Xep hang
Kenh phuc vu2
gi ai oan 1
Kenh phuc vu1
gi ai oan 2
Kenh phuc vu2
gi ai oan 2
17
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
IV. CC M HNH X P HNG
1. M hnh 1. M hnh x p hng m t knh, l ng
khch hng n tun theo phn ph i Poisson v
th i gian ph c v tun theo hm m
2. M hnh 2. M hnh x p hng nhi u knh, l ng
khch hng n tun theo phn ph i Poisson v
th i gian ph c v tun theo hm m
3. M hnh 3. M hnh m t knh ph c v , th i gian
ph c v khng i
4. M hnh 4. M hnh m t knh ph c v , s l ng
khch n h u h n.
18
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 1
6. T l th i gian nhn r i c a h th ng P
0
7. Xc su t khi h th ng ph c v h t KH
5. T l ho t ng c ch c a h th ng (xc su t h
th ng b n vi c)
4. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
x p hng W
q
3. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong dng ch L
q
2. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
trong h th ng W
s
1. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong h th ng L

= L

=
1
s
W
) (
2

=
q
L
) (

=
q
W

=
n
n
P P
|
|
.
|

'
|
=

=1
0
P
19
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 1
V d : M t qu y bn v t (1 nhn vin) c
tnh c trung bnh 15 khch/h. Th i gian
ph c v trung bnh 3 pht/khch hng.
1. Hy xc nh t i tr ng c a h th ng
2. Tnh % th i gian ch c a h th ng.
3. Tnh s l ng KH x p hng trong h th ng.
4. Tnh th i gian tb c a KH trong h th ng.
5. Tnh xc su t khi h th ng ph c v h t KH
(KH=0) v khi KH=4.
20
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 1
= 15 ng i/gi
=(1/3)x60 pht= 20 ng i/gi .
75 , 0
20
15
) 1 = = =

25 , 0 75 , 0 1 1 ) 2 = =
. 25 , 2
) 15 20 ( 20
15
) (
) 3
2 2
nguoi L
q
=

=


. 2 , 0
15 20
1 1
) 4 h W
s
=

=

; 25 , 0
20
15
1 1 ) 5
0
= = =

P . 079 , 0
20
15
25 , 0
4
4
0 4
=
|
.
|

'
|
=
|
|
.
|

'
|
=

P P
21
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 2
6. Xc su t khng c khch hng trong h th ng, P
0
5. T l ho t ng c ch c a h th ng (xc su t h
th ng b n vi c)
4. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
x p hng W
q
3. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong dng ch L
q
2. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
trong h th ng W
s
1. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong h th ng L

|
|
.
|

'
|
+

|
|
.
|

'
|
=
_
=
=
M
M
M n
P
M
M n
n
n
!
1
!
1
1
1
0
0

+

|
|
.
|

'
|
=
0 2
) ( )! 1 (
P
M M
L
M

1
) ( )! 1 (
0 2
+

|
|
.
|

'
|
= = P
M M
L
W
M
s

= L L
q

q
s q
L
W W = =
1

M
=
22
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 2
V d 4. Hng taxi Mai Linh c 7 xe tr c sn bay
N i Bi. Hng th ng k c c trung bnh ngy
(tr ngy th 7 v CN) c 6,6 khch/gi . Th i gian
ph c v trung bnh l 50 pht/khch. Gi s m i xe
ch ch m t khch. Hy xc nh cc ch s c a h
th ng.
23
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 2
Gi i
= 6,6 khch/gi
=(1/50)x60 pht= 1,2 khch/gi
/ =5,5; M=7
. 674 , 1
) ( )! 1 (
0
2
khach P
M M
L
M
p
=

|
|
.
|

'
|
=

003 , 0
!
1
!
1
1
1
0
0
=

|
|
.
|

'
|
+

|
|
.
|

'
|
=
_
=
=

M
M
M n
P
M
M n
n
n
79 , 0
) 2 , 1 ( 7
6 , 6
= = =

M
24
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 3: M t knh, th i gian ph c v khng i
4. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
x p hng W
q
3. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong dng ch L
q
2. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
trong h th ng W
s
1. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong h th ng L
) ( 2
2

=
q
L
) ( 2

=
q
W

+ =
q
L L

1
+ =
q s
W W
25
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 3: M t knh, th i gian ph c v khng i
V d 3. T i m t i m r a xe, th i gian r a m t
chi c xe l 5 pht. M i bu i c th r a c
8xe/h. S l ng khch hng n phn b theo qui
lu t Poisson.
Tnh s l ng xe x p hng trung bnh.
Tnh th i gian trung bnh m t xe ph i l i
trong h th ng.
26
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 3: M t knh, th i gian ph c v khng i
Gi i
= 8 xe/h.
=1 xe trong 5 pht, hay 12 xe/h.
. 667 , 0
) 8 12 ( 12 2
8
) ( 2
2 2
xe
x x
L
q
=

=


. 167 , 0
12
1
8
667 , 0 1 1
h
L
W W
q
q s
= + = + = + =

27
TS. Nguyen Van Ngoc
M hnh 4. M t knh, s l ng khch n
h u h n
4. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t
x p hng W
q
3. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong dng ch L
q
6. Xc su t c n khch hng trong h th ng P
n
5. Xc su t khng c khch hng trong h th ng, P
0
2. Th i gian trung bnh m m t khch hng ph i m t trong
h th ng W
s
1. S l ng khch hng trung bnh trong h th ng L
_
=
|
|
.
|

'
|

=
N
n
n
n N
N
P
0
0
)! (
!
1

) 1 (
0
P N L
q
|
.
|

'
| +
=

) 1 (
0
P L L
q
+ =
) ( L N
L
W
q
q

1
+ =
q s
W W
0
)! (
!
P
n N
N
P
n
n |
|
.
|

'
|