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Nhm 2 GVHD: H Thy i

1

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S lc v CA

Din bin CA

xut gii php

Cn cn vng lai (CA)

Nguyn nhn thm ht CA

Chnh sch CP
5/4/2012 2 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Khi nim Kt cu Nhn t tc ng

5/4/2012 3 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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5/4/2012

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Xut khu Nhp khu Vn ti Du lch Cc dch v khc

1. Cn cn thng mi
4. Cn cn chuyn giao vng lai mt Qu tng chiu Vin tr khng
hon li Chuyn tin
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2. Cn cn dch v 3. Cn cn thu nhp

Kiu hi Thu nhp t u t

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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T gi

Cn cn vng lai

Ro cn thng mi

Lm pht
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Thm ht CA ngy cng rng ra T 2000 n nay CA ln u tin thng d Nm 1999 Thm ht CA vi mc ngy cng ln Nm 1993 Thm ht CA gim mnh

Nm 1989
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Biu 1. Cn cn thng mi, cn cn vng lai, cn cn thanh ton giai on 2000 - 2010

5/4/2012

Ngun: Tng 8cc Thng k

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Biu 1. Cc cu phn trong Cn cn vng lai ca Vit Nam giai on 1997 -2008

Ngun: Tng hp t CEIC Database

5/4/2012 9 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Chnh sch t gi
Tng trng nng ca th trng chng khon (2006-2008)
Thm ht ngn sch NN

S mt cn i gia u t v tit kim

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Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Bng 1. T l tit kim v u t so vi GDP ca Vit Nam giai on 1999-2009 v d bo nm 2010

Nm
GDP (T USD u t/GD P (%) Tit kim/ GDP (% 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0f

94.0 28.7 31.2 32.7 35.1 39.6 45.5 52.9 60.9 71.1 89.4 101 5 27.6 29.6 31.2 33.2 35.4 35.5 35.6 36.8 41.6 41.5 42.4 46.1

32.1 31.7 33.2 32

30.6 32

34.5 36.5 31.8 30.8 25.1 26.8

Ngun: Tng hp t IMF Country Report 09/110 (tr.24), Moodys Investors ServiceGlobal Credit Research, May 2010
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Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Chnh sch t gi c coi l c nh linh hot ca Vit Nam gn vi ng la M. T gi danh ngha USD/VND c xu hng tng ln theo thi gian nhng t gi thc RER v REER c xu hng gim dn trong nhng nm gn y lm gim sc cnh tranh v gi hng ha Vit Nam trn th trng th gii.
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5/4/2012

Ngun: Tnh ton da trn s liu ca CEIC Database cn vng lai Thm ht cn 13

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Dng vn u t gin tip u t vo th trng chng khon

Chnh lch li sut gia tri phiu chnh ph VN vi cc nc khc
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Dng vn u t trc tip FDI

u t vo bt ng sn

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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THM HT NGN SCH CHNH PH

THM HT NGN SCH NH NC LN

THM HT TI KHON VNG LAI
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THM HT TI KHON VNG LAI LN

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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(Ngun B Ti Chnh) 16

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Hn ch u t
Tng tit kim

Gim thm ht ngn sch NN

5/4/2012 17 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Ngy 24/2/1999,Thng c ngn hng nh nc c quyt nh s 64/1999/Q/NHNN v quyt nh s 65/1999/QQ/NHNN ban hnh c ch iu hnh t gi bnh qun trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng

cn i cung cu ngoi t, to iu kin kim sot cung tin, khuyn khch xut khu, hn ch nhp khu
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Theo quy nh ti Php lnh Ngoi hi v Ngh nh 160/2006/N-CP c ch t gi hi oi ca ng Vit Nam l c ch t gi th ni c qun l. T gi c iu hnh theo tn hiu th trng v ph hp vi s thay i ca li sut VND nhm cn i hi ha cung cu ngoi t, tng cng thanh khon trn th trng ngoi t, gp phn kim sot nhp siu

5/4/2012

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Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Thc hin chnh sch tin t cht ch, thn trng

Ngh quyt 11NQ/ CP

5/4/2012

Thc hin chnh sch ti kha tht cht, ct gim u t cng, gim bi chi ngn sch nh nc Thc y sn xut, kinh doanh, khuyn khch xut khu, kim ch nhp siu, s dng tit kim nng lng
20 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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n nh li sut mc 14% Tht cht chnh sch tin t Hn ch tng trng tn dng

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Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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R sot v ct b cc hng mc u t km hiu qu ca doanh nghip nh nc (DNNN)

Ct gim chi thng xuyn ca b my nh nc cc cp.

Ct gim ngun u t t ngn sch v tn dng nh nc

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Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Tip tc thc hin CS ti kha v tin t thn trng v cht ch

Khuyn khch tiu dng cc mt hng trong nc

Ngn hn
Tng thu nhp khu gim nhu cu nhp khu
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Xy dng lng tin v ng tin Vit Nam v duy tr n nh gi c

Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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Nng cao gi tr gia tng trong hot ng sn xut

iu chnh mc thm ht ngn sch v cng c chnh sch tin t

Tng cng cc dch v h tr trong nc

Duy tr mi trng u t hp dn v nng cao nng lc cnh tranh

Nng cao nng lc vn con ngi thng qua u t gio dc

Duy tr chnh sch t gi ph hp vi chin lc pht trin kinh t trong tng giai on
p dng hn ch nhp khu ph hp vi qui nh trong nc v cam kt quc t24 Thm ht cn cn vng lai

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