I HC NNG

I HC BCH KHOA
KHOA HA

Gio vin hng dn: Nguyn Dn

Sinh vin thc hin:

1: Nguyn Hn
2: Bi Thanh Li
3: Phan Vn Trung
4: L Hong Anh
5: Nguyn Tn Lc
6: inh Vn Soan

Nng 12/2011

20A
20A
20A
20B
20B
20B

Bi tp 1: Lp phng trnh tuyn tnh y = b0+b1t m t nh hng ca nhit n

kt qu ca qu trnh
theo cc s liu th nghim sau y:
Th nghim u
Nhit tu,0C
Kt qu yu, %
mu

1
25
22
3

2
28
24
4

3
30
27
3

4
32
30
5

5
35
33
5

Bi gii:
N
S = m( u Y u ) 2 min
u= 1

p dng cng thc:

Trong : u - kt qu th nghim tnh theo phng trnhcho th nghim th u

Yu - kt qu th nghim th u
N
S = m(b0+b1t Y u )2 min
u= 1

Khi :

p dng phng php bnh phng nh nht cho hai bin b0 v b1 ta c h phng trnh sau:
5
b0 mu
u= 1
5
b0 mu tu
u= 1

5
b1 mu tu
u= 1

5
b1 mu t2u
u= 1

5
mu yu
u= 1

5
mu yu tu
u= 1

Thay vo ta c:
5
mu
=
u= 1
5
mu tu
=
u= 1
5
mu yu
=
u= 1
Ta c:
Gii h trn ta
c kt qu sau:

5
mu tu =
u= 1
5
2
mu t u =
u= 1
5
mu yu tu =
u= 1
+
+

612b1
18956b1

b0

-7.9694

b1

1.1722

20

612

558
20b0
612b0

558

18956

17343
=
=

V kt qu cui cng c c phng trnh sau:

y = -7.9694+1.1722t

558
17343

ng trnh sau:

Bi tp 2: Lp phng trnh tuyn tnh y = b0+b1t+b2t2 m t nh hng ca nhit

n kt qu ca qu trnh
Th nghim u
0
Nhit tu, C

25

28

30

32

35

Kt qu yu, %

22

24

27

30

33

cho mu

p dng
cng thc:

N
S = ( u Y
u= 1

Bi gii:
u

) 2 min

Trong : u - kt qu th nghim tnh theo phng trnh

Yu - kt qu th nghim th u
N
S = (b0+b1t +b2t2 Y u )2 min
Khi :
u= 1
p dng phng php bnh phng nh nht cho hai bin b0 v b1 ta c h phng trnh sau:
5
5
5
5
2
b0
b1 tu
+
+ b2 t u
= mu yu
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
5
5
5
5
2
3
b0 tu
+
+
= mu yu tu
b1 t u
b2 t u
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
5
5
5
5
+
+
= mu yu t2u
b1 t2u
b1 t3u
b2t4u
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1

Thay vo ta c:
5
= 5
u= 1
5
tu = 150
u= 1
5
yu = 136
u= 1
5
yu t2u =
u= 1
Ta c:

Gii h ta
c kt qu
sau:

5
t3u = 140220
u= 1
5
t2u = 4558
u= 1
5
yu tu = 4147
u= 1

128011

5
t4u
u= 1

5b0

150b1

4558b2

136

150b0

4558b1

140220b2

4147

4558b0

140220b1

4354482b2 =

b0

12.086

b1

-0.1646

b2

0.022

= 4364482

Kt qu ta thu c phng trnh dng sau:

y = 12.086-0.1646t+0.021996t2

128011

hng trnh sau:

Bi tp 3: Lp phng trnh tuyn tnh y = b0+b1t+b2t m t nh hng ca nhit n

kt qu ca qu trnh
theo cc s liu th nghim sau y:
Th nghim u
Nhit tu,0C

25

28

30

32

35

Kt qu yu, %

22

24

27

30

33

mu

Bi gii:
N
S = m( u Y
p dng cng thc:
u= 1

) 2 min

Trong : u - kt qu th nghim tnh theo phng trnh

Yu - kt qu th nghim th u
N
S = m(b0+b1t +b2t2 Y u )2 min
Khi :
u= 1
p dng phng php bnh phng nh nht cho hai bin b0 v b1 ta c h phng trnh sau:
5
5
5
5
2
b0 mu
b1 mu tu
+
+
b2 mu t u = mu yu
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
5
5
5
5
2
3
b0 mu tu
+
+
b1 mu t u
b2 mu t u = mu yu tu
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
5
5
5
5
2
3
4
+
+
= mu yu t2u
b1 mu t u
b1 mu t u
b2 mu t u
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1
u= 1

Thay vo ta c:
5
mu
=
20
u= 1
5
mu tu = 612
u= 1
5
mu yu = 558
u= 1

5
3
mu t u =
u= 1
5
2
mu t u =
u= 1
5
mu yu tu =
u= 1

5
5
2
mu yu t u = 545139 mu t4u
u= 1
u= 1

593898

18956

17343

18806504

Ta c:
20b0
612b0

+
+

612b1
18956b1

+
+

18956b0

593898b1

Gii h trn ta
c kt qu
sau:

b0

7.02366

b1
=
b2
=
Kt qu ta thu c phng trnh
dng sau:
y = 7.02366+0.16839t+0.01659t2

0.16839
0.01659

18956b2
593898b2

=
=

558
17343

18806504b2

17343

Bi tp 4
Lp quy hoch thc nghim nghin cu nh hng ca 10 yu t n qu trnh sao cho cac h s c trng
cho cc hiu ng tuyn tnh khng hn hp vi cc hiu ng tng tc cp. Bit rng cc tng tc b bn, b
ba v tng tc cp ca yu t th nhtv th hai khng ng k.

BI LM
I. T VN

Lp TPB 210-n'
S th nghim N= 210-n'. Nh vy, gim s th nghim th n' phi l ln nht.
+ Nu n' = 7 th phi lp TY 23,nh vy s yu t b sung l 7trong khi cc hiu ng
tng tc cp, tng tc b ba c th b qua( xp x bng 0) l: C32+C33=4 <7 .Suy ra phi bt
u t n'=6, v
C 42 C 43 C 44 11 6

Mt khc cc h s c trng cho hiu ng tuyn tnh khng hiu ng vi cc tng tc cp v

cc hiu ng c bc lin k nhau khng hn hp vi cc h thc sinh chn th phi tha mn:
* Khng chn cc h thc sinh l tch ca 2 bin m:
Nu chn xi=xj.xk
To tng phn xc nh: 1= xi.xj.xk
Nh vy:
(hiu ng tuyn tnh hn hp vi cc tng tc cp)
* Khng chn cc h thc sinh c s tha s lin k nhau :
Chn
x5 x1 .x 2 x3

x9 x1 .x 2 .x3 .x 4
Ti tng phn xc nh : 1 x1 .x 2 x3 x5
1 x1 .x 2 .x3 .x 4 x9
To tng phn xc nh tng hp1: x x x
4 5 9
Nh vy b1 1 235 1459 ...
+ Nu n' = 6 ta c K1:
C 42 C 43 C 44 11 6
Nhng theo k th 2
C 43 4 6
C 44 1 6
u khng tha mn, vy vi n'= 6 ta khng th chn c h thc tha mn yu cu.
+ Nu n' =5 ta c:
K 1: C 52 C 53 C 54 C 55 26 5
C 52
K 2:
b qua
tha mn
C 53 10 5
4
C5 5
tha mn
C 53 C 55 11 5
tha mn

II. XT KH NNG GII

Vi n'= 5 ta c TPB
1. Trng hp 1:

2105

*Lp TY 25
*Chn hi thc sinh: x 6

x1 x 2 x 3

x 7 x1 x 2 x 4

x 8 x1 x 2 x 5

x 9 x1 x 3 x 5
x10 x1 x4 x5

*To tng phn xc nh :

1 x1 x 2 x3 x6 (1)

1 x1 x 2 x 4 x7 (2)
1 x1 x 2 x5 x8 (3)

1 x1 x3 x5 x9 (4)
1 x1 x4 x5 x10 (5)
*To tng phn xc nh tng hp:

1 (1)(2) x1 x2 x6 x7
1 (1)(3) x1 x3 x6 x8
1 (1)(4) x1 x4 x6 x9

1 (1)( 2 )( 3) x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8
1 (1)( 2 )( 4 ) x 3 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 9
1 (1)( 2)(5) x 3 x 4 x 6 x 7 x10

1 (1)(5) x1 x5 x6 x10

1 (1)( 3)( 4 ) x 2 x 5 x 6 x 8 x 9

1 (2)(3) x2 x3 x7 x8

1 (1)( 3)( 5) x 2 x 4 x 6 x 8 x10

1 (2)(4) x2 x4 x7 x9

1 (1)( 4 )( 5) x 2 x 3 x 6 x 9 x10

1 (2)(5) x2 x5 x7 x10

1 ( 2 )( 3)( 4 ) x 1 x 5 x 7 x 8 x 9

1 (3)(4) x3 x4 x8 x9
1 (3)(5) x3 x5 x8 x10
1 (4)(5) x4 x5 x9 x10

1 ( 2)(3)(5) x1 x 4 x 7 x 8 x10
1 ( 2)( 4)(5) x1 x 3 x 7 x 9 x10
1 (3)( 4)(5) x1 x 2 x 8 x 9 x10

1 (4)(5) x4 x5 x9 x10

1 (1)(2)(3)(4) x1x2 x3 x4 x6 x7 x8 x9
1 (1)(2)(3)(5) x1x2 x3 x5 x6 x7 x8 x10
1 (1)(2)(4)(5) x1x2 x4 x5 x6 x7 x9 x10
1 (1)(3)(4)(5) x1x3 x4 x5 x6 x8 x9 x10
1 (2)(3)(4)(5) x2 x3 x4 x5 x7 x8 x9 x10
1 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) x6 x7 x8 x9 x10
*Xc nh iu kin hn hp cc hiu ng :

b1 1 236 247 258 359 4510 13467 13568 12569 12345610 14578
1234579 125710 12389 124810 134910 2345678 45679 356710 689 346810 246910

34789 7810 237910 23458910 1246789 12367810 167910 14568910 13578910 25678910
b 2 2 136 147 158 12359 124510 23467 23568 569 345610 24578
34579 5710 389 4810 234910 1345678 1245679 123456710 12689 12346810 146910

1234789 127810 137910 13458910 46789 367810 267910 24568910 23578910 15678910

b 3 3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..

b10 10 123610 124710 125810 135910 145 346710 356840 256910 23456 457810

23457910 257 238910 248 349 1234567810 14567910 13567 168910 13468 12469
13478910 178 12379 1234589 24678910 23678 679 45689 35789 1256789
2.Trng hp 2:
5

*Lp TY 2
*Chn h thc sinh

x6 x2 x3 x4 x5
x 8 x1 x 2 x 4 x 5
x 10 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4

x 7 x1 x 3 x 4 x 5
x 9 x1 x 2 x 3 x 5

*To tng phn xc nh:

1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 (1)

1 x1 x3 x 4 x5 x 7 ( 2)

1 x1 x 2 x 4 x5 x8 (3)

1 x1 x 2 x3 x5 x9 ( 4)

1 x1 x 2 x3 x 4 x10 (5)
*To tng phn xc nh tng hp:

1 (1)(2) x1 x2 x6 x7

1 (1)( 2 )( 3) x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8

1 (1)(3) x1 x3 x6 x8

1 (1)( 2 )( 4 ) x 3 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 9

1 (1)(4) x1 x4 x6 x9

1 (1)( 2)(5) x 3 x 4 x 6 x 7 x10

1 (1)(5) x1 x5 x6 x10
1 (2)(3) x2 x3 x7 x8
1 (2)(4) x2 x4 x7 x9
1 (2)(5) x2 x5 x7 x10
1 (3)(4) x3 x4 x8 x9

1 (1)( 3)( 4 ) x 2 x 5 x 6 x 8 x 9
1 (1)( 3)( 5) x 2 x 4 x 6 x 8 x10
1 (1)( 4 )( 5) x 2 x 3 x 6 x 9 x10

1 (3)(5) x3 x5 x8 x10

1 ( 2 )( 3)( 4 ) x 1 x 5 x 7 x 8 x 9
1 ( 2)(3)(5) x1 x 4 x 7 x 8 x10
1 ( 2)( 4)(5) x1 x 3 x 7 x 9 x10

1 (4)(5) x4 x5 x9 x10

1 (3)( 4)(5) x1 x 2 x 8 x 9 x10

1 (1)(2)(3)(4) x1x2 x3 x4 x6 x7 x8 x9
1 (1)(2)(3)(5) x1x2 x3 x5 x6 x7 x8 x10
1 (1)(2)(4)(5) x1x2 x4 x5 x6 x7 x9 x10

1 (1)(3)(4)(5) x1x3 x4 x5 x6 x8 x9 x10

1 (2)(3)(4)(5) x2 x3 x4 x5 x7 x8 x9 x10

1 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) x6 x7 x8 x9 x10
*Xc nh iu kin hn hp ca hiu ng:

b1 1 123456 3457 2458 2359 23410 267 368 469 5610 12378

12479 125710 13489 135810 145910 145678 135679 1346710 125689 1246810 1236910

5789 47810 37910 28910 2346789 23567810 24567910 34568910 1234578910 1678910

b2 2 3456 123457 1458 1359 23410 167 12368 12469 125610 378

479 5710 23489 235810 245910 245678 235679 2346710 5689 46810 36910
125789 1247810 1237910 18910 1346789 13567810 14567910 1234568910 34578910 2678910

b 3 3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..

b10 10 2345610 1345710 1245810 1235910 1234 126710 136810 146910 156 237810

247910 257 348910 358 459 4567810 3567910 3467 2568910 2468 2369
1578910 1478 1379 1289 1234678910 1235678 1245679 1345689 2345789 6789
*Trong trng hp ny th cc h s c trng cho hiu ng tuyn tnh khng hn hp vi cc
hiu ng tng tc cp nhng cc hiu ng c bc lin k lai hn hp vi nhau.

3. Trng hp 3
5

*Lp: TY 2
*Chn h thc sinh :

x 6 x1 x

x3

x 7 x1 x 2 x 5
x 8 x1 x 2 x 4

x9 x3x

x5

x10 x1 x 2 x3 x 4 x5

*To tng phn xc nh:

1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 6 (1)

1 x1 x 2 x 5 x 7 ( 2 )

1 x1 x 2 x 4 x 8 (3)

1 x3 x 4 x5 x9 (4)

1 x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x10 (5)
*Tao tng phn xc nh tng hp:

1 (1)( 2 ) x 3 x 5 x 6 x 7

1 (1)(2)(3) x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8
1 (1)( 2 )( 4 ) x 4 x 6 x 7 x 9
1 (1)(2)(5) x1 x 2 x 4 x 6 x 7 x10

1 (1)( 5 ) x 4 x 5 x 6 x 10
1 ( 2 )( 3) x 4 x 5 x 7 x 8
1 (2)(4) x1 x2 x3 x4 x7 x9

1 (1)( 3 )( 4 ) x 5 x 6 x 8 x 9
1 (1)(3)(5) x1 x 2 x 5 x 6 x 8 x10
1 (1)( 4 )( 5 ) x 3 x 6 x 9 x 10
1 ( 2 )( 3 )( 4 ) x 3 x 7 x 8 x 9

1 (1)( 3) x 3 x 4 x 6 x 8
1 (1)(4) x1 x2 x4 x5 x6 x9

1 ( 2 )( 5) x 3 x 4 x 7 x10
1 (3)(4) x1 x2 x3 x5 x8 x9
1 (3)( 5) x 3 x 5 x 8 x 10

1 ( 4 )( 5) x1 x 2 x 9 x10

1 (2)(3)(5) x1 x 2 x 3 x 7 x8 x10

1 ( 2 )( 4 )( 5 ) x 5 x 7 x 9 x 10

1 ( 3 )( 4 )( 5 ) x 4 x 8 x 9 x 10
1 (1)(2)(3)(4) x1 x2 x6 x7 x8 x9
1 (1)( 2 )( 3)( 5 ) x 6 x 7 x 8 x10

1 (1)(2)(4)(5) x1x2 x3 x5 x6 x7 x9 x10

1 (1)(3)(4)(5) x1x2 x3 x4 x6 x8 x9 x10

1 (2)(3)(4)(5) x1x2 x4 x5 x7 x8 x9 x10
1 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10
*Xc nh iu kin hn hp cc hiu ng:

b1 1 236 357 248 13459 234510 13567 13468 24569 145610 14578

23479 134710 23589 135810 2910 2345678 14679 246710 15689 256810 136910

237810 157910 148910 26789 167810 23567910 23468910 24578910 1345678910

b2 2 136 157 148 23459 134510 23567 23468 14569 245610 24578

13479 234710 13589 235810 1910 1345678 24679 146710 25689 156810 236910
23789 137810 257910 248910 16789 267810 13567910 345689 13468910 14578910 2345678910

b 3 3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..

b10 10 123610 125710 124810 345910 12345 356710 346810 12456910 456 457810

347 12358910 358 129 1234567810 467910 12467 568910 12568 369 378910
12378 489 12678910 678 1235679 1234689 1245789 3456789

III. NHN XT
T bi ton trn ta nhn thy rng: Nu chn h thc sinh l tich ca ca k tha s th ta c 2
kh nng sau y vi k >=2 ta c:
+ k chn : Th cc hiu ng bc lin nhau s hn hp vi nhau v khi k = 2 th hiu ng tuyn
tnh s hn hp vi cc hiu ng tng tc cp.
+ k l : Cc h s c trng cho cc hiu ng tuyn tnh khng hn hp vi cc hiu ng tng
tc cp v cc hiu ng lin k khng hn hp vi nhau.
Nh Vy nu lp TBP 2n-n' ta nn chn h thc theo iu kin sau tha mn c 2 iu kin trn:
* Chn n'
2 i 1
m
n n'1 Vi n-n' l

n'

C
i 1

nn'

m
*Chn h thc sinh

n n'
1
2

Vi n-n' chn

xi x j xl x m ... x k

Vi k =2i + 1
i = 1m

n n'1
2

n n'
1
2

Vi n-n' l

Vi n-n' chn

mn yu cu.

 24578

.... ..... ..

468

12469

10

1236910

5610

378

x 4 x5

10

136910

.. ..

378910

iu kin trn:

Vi n-n' chn

Vi n-n' chn

Bi tp 5: Hy cho bit tm thc nghim, khong bin thin, mc trn, mc di ca s liu thc nghim
chu nh hng ca hai yu t nhit trong khong (20-400c) v t (1-5M)

Bi gii:
Bng s liu:

Nhit ( c) Nng (M)

Mc di
20
1
Mc trn
40
5
+

1/Tm thc nghim:

X10
X20

=
=

(X 1 +X 1)/2
+
(X 2 +X 2)/2

=
=

30
3

2/Khong bin thin:

1
2

=
=

(X+1 -X-1)/2
(X+2 -X-2)/2

=
=

10
2

u
1
2
3
4

x1u(0c)
-1
1
-1
1

3/Lp bng quy hoch ta c:

X1u(0c)
X2u(M)
u
1
20
1
2
40
1
3
20
5
4
40
5
4/Tng hp cc kt qu tnh ton trn v bng quy hoch ta c:
X1
X2
Cc ch tiu
u
Mc c s
30
3
Khong bin thin
10
2
Mc trn
40
5
Mc di
20
1
Bin m
Th nghim u
x1
x2
1
2
+
3
+
4
+
+

y
y1
y2
y3
y4

x2u(M)
-1
-1
1
1

u thc nghim

Bi tp 6:

Dng phng php bnh phng nh nht lp mt xp x tuyn tnh

theo cc s liu thc nghim sau:
u
1
2
3
4
5
6
Cu (%)
9
11
13
15 17 19
y, mg/l
18
19
21
26 27 29

C0
Tm thc nghim:

Bi gii:
7
= Cu /N =
u= 1

= Cu+1 - Cu =

Khong bin thin:

Cc bin khng th nguyn

Khi ta c bng s liu sau y
u
1
Cu (%)
9
y, mg/l
18
xu
-3

b0

b1 =

15

2
xu = (Cu - C0 )/

2
11
19
-2

Thc hin php tnh ta c:

7
yu
= 172
u= 1
7
x2u = 28
u= 1
Khi :

7
21
32

3
13
21
-1

4
15
26
0

5
17
27
1

6
19
29
2

7
21
32
3

7
xu yu = 68
u= 1

7
yu /N =
u= 1

24.57

7
7
xu yu / x2u = 2.43
u= 1
u=1

Vy phng trnh theo bin m l: y=24.57+2.43xu

Phng trnh theo bin c th nguyn l: y=24.57+2.43(Cu -15)/2 = 6.25+1.215Cu

Bi tp 7: Biu din cc s liu thc nghim bng phng trnh bc hai theo bng s liu sau y:
u
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
tu,h
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
wu=yu(kg)
15.2
20.5
25.3
30.6
36.1 42.1 59.5
Bi gii:
t0
Tm thc nghim:

7
= tu /N =
u= 1

= tu+1 - tu =

Khong bin thin:

Cc bin khng th nguyn:

Khi ta c bng s liu sau y:
u
1
tu,h
8
wu=yu(kg)
15.2
xu

-3

14

2
xu = (tu - t0 )/

2
10

3
12

4
14

20.5

25.3

30.6

-2

-1

Thc hin php tnh ta c:

7
yu =
u= 1
7
x2u =
u= 1

229.3

7
xu yu
=
u= 1

28

7
x4u
u= 1

7
x2u yu = 984.1
u= 1
7
7
b1= xu yu / x2u = 6.68
u= 1
u=1

186.9

= 196

5
16

6
18

7
20

36.1 42.1 59.5

1

Mt khc ta c h phng trnh sau:

b0N
7
b0 xu
u= 1

7
2
b2x u
u= 1

5
4
b 2 x
u= 1

7
yu
u= 1

7
2
yu x u
u= 1

Gii h phng trnh trn ta c;

b0= 29.57
b2= 0.80
Vy phng trnh theo bin m l: y=29.57+6.68xu+0.8x2u
Phng trnh theo bin c th nguyn l: y=20.7-2.11t+0.194t2 vi
xu=(tu-14)/2

s liu sau y:

Bi tp 8:
u
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

x1

Cho s liu thc nghim sau y.Xc nh phng trnh thc nghim
v sau kim tra bng hai tiu chun student v Fisher
ct chnh
ct ph
kt qu
x2
x3
x1x2
x1x3
x2x3 x1x2x3 yu1 yu2 yu3 Yu

-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
0

-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
0

-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
0
Bi gii:

1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1

1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1

1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1

-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1

Gi s phng trnh tuyn tnh.

Khi ta c : y=b0+b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b12x12+b13x13+b23x23+b123x1x2x3

b0=

b1=

b2=

b3=

b12=

b13=

8
yu /N =
u= 1
8
yux1 /N =
u= 1
8
yux2/N =
u= 1
8
yux3/N =
u= 1
8
yux12/N =
u= 1
8
yux13/N =
u= 1

81.875

-0.625

4.375

13.125

9.375

-4.375

73
58
54
84
100
98
77
105
89

69
58
59
94
106
90
85
95
83

68
64
52
92
109
97
78
100
86

70
60
55
90
105
95
80
100
86

8
yux23/N
b23=
-1.875
=
u= 1
8
yux123/N
b123=
-1.875
=
u= 1
Vy y=81.875-0.625x1+4.375x2+13.125x3+9.375x12-4.375x13-1.875x23-1.875x1x2x3
1/ Phng sai theo hng:
u

(yu1-u)2

(yu2-u)2

(yu3-u)2 1+2+3

S2yuk

1
9
1
4
14
2
4
4
16
24
3
1
16
9
26
4
36
16
4
56
5
25
1
16
42
6
9
25
4
38
7
9
25
4
38
8
25
25
0
50
9
9
9
0
18
2/ Phng sai ti hin tng th nghim ca cuc th nghim:
8
2
S yuk = S2(yuk)/N = 18
u= 1

7
12
13
28
21
19
19
25
9

3/ Phng sai ca kt qu trung bnh ca ch tiu c ti u ha :

S2(y)=

S2(yk)/ m =

4/ Phng sai ca h s bi bt k ca phng trnh

S2(bi)

S(bi)

S2(y)/N =
(S2(bi) =

0.75
0.87

5/ Kim tra tiu chun student:

Sai s tin cy: (bi)=t(p;f).S(bi)
Tra bng student ng vi p=0.95 v f=N(m-1)=8.2=16

t(0.95;16)=2.12 v S(bi)=0.87
Vy (bi)= 1.84
i chiu vi cc h s trong phng trnh trn th ta thy rng h s bi= -0,63 l khng
ngha(|bi|<).
Vy phng trnh lc ny c dng sau:
y=81.875+4.375x2+13.125x3+9.375x12-4.375x13-1.875x23-1.875x1x2x3
6/ Kim tra tiu chun Fisher:
Theo phng trnh thu c theo tiu chun student ta c:
b0 b1
b2
b3
b12
b13
82

4.375

13.125

9.375

-4.375

b23

b123

-1.88 -1.875
2

Bng tnh yu ca mi th nghim, tnh hiu |u-yu| v (u-yu) :

u
|u -yu| (u -yu)2
u
yu
1
70
69.375
0.625 0.39063
2
60
59.375
0.625 0.39063
3
55
55.625
0.625 0.39063
4
90
90.625
0.625 0.39063
5
105
104.375
0.625 0.39063
6
95
94.375
0.625 0.39063
7
80
80.625
0.625 0.39063
8
100
100.625
0.625 0.39063
T bng s liu trn ta c:
8
(u-yu)2 = 3.125
u= 1
* Phng sai ph hp:
8
2
'
2
3.125
S ph = (u-yu) /(N-N ) =
u= 1
N: h s ca phng trnh ban u
N': h s c ngha sau khi kim tra bng tiu chun student
2
2
V S
* Tnh
F (y)>S ph cho nn:
F = S2(y)/S2ph

= 1.92

Chun s Fb=248 ng vi p=95% v f1= N(m-1)=8x2=16 v f2=N-N'=8-7=1

Vy vi xc xut tin cy p=95% c th kt lun rng phng trnh lp ph hp

vi s liu thc nghim

Bi tp 9 :

Nghin cu s bin i tnh ca nhm nguyn cht bng molip en.

2
Thng s ti u ha y c chn l s ht nhm trn b mt 1cm
Cc yu t nh hng n thng s ti u
x1 - lng molip en a vo nhm, tnh bng %
0

x2 - nhit nung nng , C

x3 - thi gian nung nng, pht
x4 - tc lm lnh ()
x1,x2,x3 l nhng yu t nh lng
x4 l yu t nh tnh, c hai gi tr :lm lnh nhanh ( lm lnh bng graphit),
lm lnh chm(gch chu la)
Cc mc ca cc yu t cho bng sau:
Cc yu t
x1
Cc mc

x2

Mc c s
0.4
840
Khong bin thin
0.15
100
Mc trn(+)
0.55
940
Mc di(-)
0.25
740
* M hnh c chn l m hnh tuyn tnh. Khi ta c :

x3
60
60
120
0

x4
graphit
Gch chu lu

y = b0+b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b4x4
Thc nghim c thc hin l TYP : 24-1 suy ra N=8(TN)
Vi biu thc sinh : x4=x1x2x3. Cc th nghim khng lp li
Ma trn QHTN v cc kt qu c cho bng sau:
Ma trn quy hoch thc nghim
x0
x1
x2
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1

1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1

x3

x4

1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1

1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
-1

y
100
81
95
36
130
69
90
64

STT
1
2
3
Phng sai ti hin:

yu

y u -y0

(y u -y )2

80
82
78

0
2
2

0
4
4

S2th=

3
80
y0u /3
=
u= 1
3
8
(y0u -y0)2 =
u= 1
3
(y0u -y0)2 /(n0-1) = 4
u= 1

H s trong m hnh tnh ton :

b0=

b1=

b2=

b3=

b4=

8
y/N
u= 1
8
yx1 /N
u= 1
8
yx2/N
u= 1
8
yx3/N
u= 1
8
yx3/N
u= 1

83.125

20.625

11.875

-5.125

-9.375

Kt qu ta thu c phng trnh c dng sau : y=83.125+20.625x1+11.875x2-5.125x3-9.375x4

* Kim tra tiu chun student:

tj = |bj| / Sbj,
Sbj = (S2th / N)

0.71

t1 = 29.17

Khi :

t2= 16.79
t3= -7.25
t4= -13.26
Tra bng tp(f) vi p=0.05 v f=n0-1= 3-1=2 ta c tp(f)=4.3
R rng ta thy | tj | >tp(f) do cc h s hi quy u c ngha v phng trnh hi quy
* Kim tra tiu chun Fisher:
Theo phng trnh thu c trn ta c:
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4
83.125
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

20.625
11.875
Ta c bng s liu sau:
u
y

-5.125

-9.375

y - u (y -u )2

100
81
95
36
130
69

101.125
78.625
96.125
36.125
130.125
70.125

-1.125
2.375
-1.125
-0.125
-0.125
-1.125

1.26563
5.64063
1.26563
0.01563
0.01563
1.26563

90
64

87.625
65.125

2.375
-1.125

5.64063
1.26563

8
S t t = (y -u )2/(N -L) = 5.46
u= 1
2
F= S t t/S2t h =
1.365
Tra bng F1-p(f1,f2); p=0.05, f1=3,f2=2 ta c F1- p(3,2) =19.2
2

V F1-p(f1,f2)>F do phng trnh tng thch vi thc nghim

** Ti u ha thc nghim bng phng php ng dc ng

im bt u l im khng.
Mc c s x1=0.4, x2=840, x3 =60,x4 lm lnh chm(lm lnh bng gch chu la)
Bc chuyn ng ca yu t x1, x3 vi bc chuyn ng ca x2 l 2
1 =
2.b1.1/2.b2 =
0.0261
3=

Tn
Mc c s
H s bj
Khong bin thin
bj. j
Bc j
Bc lm trn

2.b3.1/2.b2 =

Bng thc nghim ti u ha

x1
x2

-2.5895

x3

x4

0.4
20.625
0.15
3.0938
0.0261
0.03

840
11.875
100
1187.5
10
10

60
-5.125
60
-307.5
-2.5895
-2.6

Th nghim tng tng

Th nghim tng tng

0.43
0.46

850
860

57.4
54.8

-9.4
Gch
chu la
"

Th nghim th 9
Th nghim tng tng
Th nghim tng tng
Th nghim th 10
Th nghim th 11
Th nghim th 12

0.49
0.52
0.55
0.58
0.61
0.64

870
880
890
900
910
920

52.2
49.6
47
44.4
41.8
39.2

"
"
"
"
"
"

y
108
196
366
313

Da vo bng ti u ny th ta thy nhn c kt qu tt nht th nghim 11.

gi tr ca thng s ti u tha mn ngi nghin cu

p en.